Scenariosfor theFutureof Technology

andInternational Development
This report was produced by
The Rockefeller Foundation
and Global Business
Network.

May 2010

Contents

Letter from Judith Rodin . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4

Letter from Peter Schwartz . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6

Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8

WHY SCENARIOS? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9

WHY TECHNOLOGY? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10 THE

FOCAL QUESTION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11

ENGAGING YOUR IMAGINATION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11

The Scenario Framework . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13

CHOOSING THE CRITICAL UNCERTAINTIES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14

GLOBAL POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC ALIGNMENT . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15

ADAPTIVE CAPACITY ................................................. 15

THE SCENARIO NARRATIVES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17 Lock

Step . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18 Clever Together .

 ................................................. 26 Hack

Attack . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34

Smart Scramble . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42

Concluding Thoughts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49

Appendix . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51
 Letter from Judith Rodin
President of the Rockefeller Foundation

The Rockefeller Foundation supports work that expands opportunity and strengthens
resilience to social, economic, health, and environmental challenges — affirming its
pioneering philanthropic mission, since 1913, to “promote the well-being” of humanity.
We take a synergistic, strategic approach that places a high value on innovative processes
and encourages new ways of seeking ideas, to break down silos and encourage
interdisciplinary thinking.

One important — and novel — component of our strategy toolkit is scenario planning, a
process of creating narratives about the future based on factors likely to affect a particular
set of challenges and opportunities. We believe that scenario planning has great potential
for use in philanthropy to identify unique interventions, simulate and rehearse important
decisions that could have profound implications, and highlight previously undiscovered
areas of connection and intersection. Most important, by providing a methodological
Scenarios for the Future of Technology and International

structure that helps us focus on what we don’t know — instead of what we already know
— scenario planning allows us to achieve impact more effectively.

The results of our first scenario planning exercise demonstrate a provocative and engaging
exploration of the role of technology and the future of globalization, as you will see in the
following pages. This report is crucial reading for anyone interested in creatively
considering the multiple, divergent ways in which our world could evolve. The sparks of
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insight inspiring these narratives — along with their implications for philanthropy as a
whole — were generated through the invaluable collaboration of grantee representatives,
external experts, and Rockefeller Foundation staff. I offer a special thanks to Peter
Schwartz, Andrew Blau, and the entire team at Global Business Network, who have
helped guide us through this stimulating and energizing process.

4
 Leading this effort at the Rockefeller Foundation is our Research Unit, which analyzes
emerging risks and opportunities and thinks imaginatively about how to respond to the
complex, rapidly changing world around us. This outward-looking intelligence function
adopts a cross-cutting mindset that synthesizes and integrates knowledge that accelerates
our ability to act more quickly and effectively. It has also helped to shape and build the
notion of “pro-poor foresight” that is committed to applying forward-looking tools and
techniques to improve the lives of poor and vulnerable populations around the world.

I hope this publication makes clear exactly why

my colleagues and I are so excited about the
promise of using scenario planning to develop
robust strategies and offer a refreshing viewpoint

Scenarios for the Future of Technology and International

on the possibilities that lie ahead. We welcome
your feedback.

Judith Rodin
President
The Rockefeller Foundation

Development
5

Letter from Peter Schwartz

Cofounder and Chairman of Global Business Network

We are at a moment in history that is full of opportunity.

Technology is poised to transform the lives of millions of people
throughout the world, especially those who have had little or no
access to the tools that can deliver sustainable improvements for
their families and communities. From farmers using mobile phones
 to buy and sell crops to doctors remotely monitoring and treating
influenza outbreaks in rural villages, technology is rapidly
becoming more and more integral to the pace and progress of
development.

Philanthropy has a unique and critical role to play in this process.

By focusing its patience, capital, and attention on the links between
technology and international development, philanthropy will change
not just lives but the very context in which the field of philanthropy
operates. This report represents an initial step in that direction. It
explores four very different — yet very possible — scenarios for
the future of technology and development in order to illuminate the
challenges and opportunities that may lie ahead. It promotes a
deeper understanding of the complex forces and dynamics that will
accelerate or inhibit the use of technology to spur growth,
opportunity, and resilience especially in the developing world.
Finally, it will seed a new strategic conversation among the key
public, private, and philanthropic stakeholders about technology
and development at the policy, program, and human levels.

The Rockefeller Foundation’s use of scenario planning to explore

technology and international development has been both inspired
and ambitious. Throughout my 40-plus-year career as a scenario
planner, I have worked with many of the world’s leading
Scenarios for the Future of Technology and International

companies, governments, foundations, and nonprofits — and I know

firsthand the power of the approach. Scenario planning is a powerful
tool precisely because the future is unpredictable and shaped by
many interacting variables. Scenarios enable us to think creatively
and rigorously about the different ways these forces may interact,
while forcing us to challenge our own assumptions about what we
believe or hope the future will be. Scenarios embrace and weave
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together multiple perspectives and provide an ongoing framework

for spotting and making sense of important changes as they emerge.
Perhaps most importantly, scenarios give us a new, shared language
that deepens our conversations about the future and how we can
help to shape it.

6
 The Rockefeller Foundation has already used this project as an opportunity to clarify and
advance the relationship between technology and development. Through interviews and
the scenario workshops, they have engaged a diverse set of people — from different
geographies, disciplines, and sectors — to identify the key forces driving change, to
explore the most critical uncertainties, and to develop challenging yet plausible scenarios
and implications. They have stretched their thinking far beyond theoretical models of
technology innovation and diffusion in order to imagine how technology could actually
change the lives of people from many walks of life. This is only the start of an important
conversation that will continue to shape the potential of technology and international
development going forward. I look forward to staying a part of that conversation and to
the better future it will bring.

Scenarios for the Future of Technology and International

Peter Schwartz
Cofounder and Chairman
Global Business Network
7

Introduction

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For decades, technology has been
dramatically changing not just the lives of
individuals in developed countries, but
increasingly the lives and livelihoods of
people throughout the developing world.
Whether it is a community mobile phone, a
solar panel, a new farming practice, or a
cuttingedge medical device, technology is
 altering the landscape of possibility in
places where possibilities used to be scarce.

And yet looking out to the future, there is no range of possibilities. This
single story to be told about how technology report, and the project upon
will continue to help shape — or even which it is based, is one attempt
revolutionize — life in developing countries. to do that. In it, we share the
There are many possibilities, some good and outputs and insights from a year-
some less so, some known and some long project, undertaken by the
unknowable. Indeed, for everything we think Rockefeller Foundation and
we can anticipate about how technology and Global Business Network
international development will interact and (GBN), designed to explore the
intertwine in the next 20 years and beyond, role of technology in
there is so much more that we cannot yet even international development
imagine. through scenario planning, a
methodology in which GBN is a
For philanthropies as well as for other
long-time leader.
organizations, this presents a unique challenge:
given the uncertainty about how the future will This report builds on the Rockefeller
play out, how can we best position ourselves Foundation’s growing body of work in the
not just to identify technologies that improve emerging field of pro-poor foresight. In
the lives of poor communities but also to help 2009, the Institute for Alternative Futures
scale and spread those that emerge? And how published the report Foresight for Smart
Scenarios for the Future of Technology and International

will the social, technological, economic, Globalization: Accelerating and Enhancing

environmental, and political conditions of the Pro-Poor Development Opportunities, with
future enable or inhibit our ability to do so? support from the Rockefeller Foundation.
That effort was a reflection of the
The Rockefeller Foundation
Foundation’s strong commitment to
believes that in order to
exploring innovative processes and
understand the many ways in
embracing new pathways for insight aimed
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which technology will impact

at helping the world’s poor. With this report,
international development in the
the Foundation takes a further step in
future, we must first broaden
advancing the field of pro-poor foresight,
and deepen our individual and
this time through the lens of scenario
collective understanding of the
planning.

8
 WHY SCENARIOS? predictions. Rather, they are thoughtful
hypotheses that allow us to imagine, and then to
The goal of this project was not to affirm
rehearse, different strategies for how to be more
prepared for the future — or more ambitiously,
what is already known and knowable
how to help shape better futures ourselves.
about what is happening right now at the
9
intersections of technology and
development. Rather, it was to explore the
many ways in which technology and
development could co-evolve — could
both push and inhibit each other — in the
future, and then to begin to examine what
those possible alternative paths may imply
for the world’s poor and vulnerable
populations. Such an exercise required
project participants to push their thinking
far beyond the status quo, into uncharted
territory.

Scenario planning is a methodology designed to

help guide groups and individuals through
exactly this creative process. The process
begins by identifying forces of change in the
world, then combining those forces in different
ways to create a set of diverse stories — or
scenarios — about how the future could evolve.
Scenarios are designed to stretch our thinking
about both the opportunities and obstacles that
the future might hold; they explore, through
narrative, events and dynamics that might alter,
inhibit, or enhance current trends, often in
surprising ways. Together, a set of scenarios
Scenarios for the Future of Technology and International

captures a range of future possibilities, good

and bad, expected and surprising — but always
plausible. Importantly, scenarios are not
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 WHY TECHNOLOGY? divorced from the context in which it develops. The
scenarios shared in this report explore four such
Technology was chosen as a focal point of this project
contexts, each of which, as you’ll see, suggests very
because of its potentially transformative role — both
different landscapes for technology and its potential
in a positive and negative way — in addressing a
impacts in the developing world.
wide range of development challenges, from climate
change, healthcare, and agriculture to housing, Finally, a note about what we mean by
transportation, and education. Yet while there is little “technology.” In this report, we use the term to
doubt that technology will continue to be a driver of refer to a broad spectrum of tools and methods of
change across the developing world in the future, the organization. Technologies can range from tools
precise trajectory along which technological for basic survival, such as a treadle pump and basic
innovation will travel is highly uncertain. For filtration technologies, to more advanced
example, will critical technological advances come innovations, such as methods of collecting and
from the developed world, or will innovators and utilizing data in health informatics and novel
their innovations be more geographically dispersed? building materials with real-time environmental
Or, how might the global economic and political sensing capabilities. This report focuses on themes
Scenarios for the Future of Technology and International

environment affect the pace of technology associated with the widespread scalability,
development? adoption, and assessment of technology in the
developing world. While the scenarios themselves
It is important to state that in focusing on technology,
are narratives about the global environment, we
this project did not set out to identify a set of exact,
have paid particular attention to how events might
yet-to-be-invented technologies that will help shape
transpire in subSaharan Africa, Southeast Asia, and
and change the future. Rather, the goal was to gain a
India.
broader and richer understanding of different paths
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along which technology could develop — paths that THE FOCAL QUESTION
will be strongly influenced by the overall global
Every scenario project has a focal question — a
environment in which the inventors and adopters of
broad yet strategic query that serves as an anchor
those technologies will find themselves working and
for the scenarios. For this project, the focal
dwelling. Technology, as a category, cannot be
question was:
10
 How might technology affect barriers development. Of course, there is no hard data about
to building resilience and equitable the future — nobody yet knows precisely what
growth in the developing world over technologies will be successful at addressing new and
evolving development needs.
the next 15 to 20 years?
A Note even
In other words, what new or existing technologies
catastrophic
could be leveraged to improve the capacity of on
incidents.
individuals, communities, and systems to respond Termin
Equitable
to major changes, or what technologies could ology growth involves
improve the lives of vulnerable populations around The enabling
the world? A 15- to 20-year timeframe was chosen Foundation’s individuals,
on the assumption that it is both sufficiently long work communities,
enough that significant technological change is promotes and institutions
plausible and sufficiently short enough that we can “resilience to access new
imagine some possibilities for the kinds of and tools, practices,
technologies that could be developed and applied. equitable resources,

Scenarios for the Future of Technology and International

Focusing on how to overcome a set of obstacles growth.” services, and
associated with the application of technology to Resilience products.
the challenges of development helped to both refers to the Rather, as you read
bound the inquiry and promote a problem-solving capacity of the scenarios, think of
approach that seeks to identify potential, individuals, them as a journey —
systematic intervention opportunities. communities
four journeys — into
, and
a future that is

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systems to
ENGAGING YOUR IMAGINATION relevant, thought-
survive,
provoking, and
It is our hope that these scenarios help inspire the adapt, and
possible. Imagine
same future-orientation in other initiatives that are grow in the
how the world will
broadly concerned with technology and international face of
function and how it
changes,
11
 will be organized their important but choices and organizations may
to tackle the less obvious commitments want to make in
challenges it faces. implications to you, that a wide these areas in the
Who will be your work, and your range of future.
responsible for community. We
driving local and strongly encourage FURTHER READING ON
global you to share and TECHNOLOGY AND DEVELOPMENT
development discuss this report
This report adds to a growing body of literature
initiatives and widely, use it as a
focusing on the relationship between technology,
what would that springboard for
development, and social systems. While not a
require? And what further creative
comprehensive list, the following readings offer
is your own role in thinking about how
additional insights on this topic.
leading your technology could
organization, shape development,
• Caroline Wagner, The New Invisible College:
community, or and test and adjust Science for Development, 2008.
region to a your strategies or
Scenarios for the Future of Technology and International

preferred future? personal actions • Institute for the Future, Science and Technology
Outlook: 2005-2055, 2006.
accordingly.
Scenarios are a
• RAND Corporation, The Global Technology
medium through It is also our hope Revolution 2020, In-Depth Analyses, 2006.
which great that these scenarios
• World Bank, Science, Technology, and
change can be not help to identify
Innovation: Capacity Building for Sustainable
just envisioned but potential areas of Growth and Poverty Reduction, 2008.
Development

also actualized. future work for

The more closely governments, • UN Millennium Project, Task Force on Science,
you read them, the philanthropies, Technology, and Innovation, Innovation:
more likely it corporations, and Applying Knowledge in Development, 2006.
becomes that you nonprofits, and that • W. Brian Arthur, The Nature of Technology:
will recognize they illuminate What It Is and How It Evolves, 2009.
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• STEPS Centre Working Papers, Innovation,
Sustainability, Development: A New Manifesto,
2009.

13
The Scenario
Framework
The Rockefeller Foundation and GBN began the scenario
process by surfacing a host of driving forces that would affect
the future of technology and international development.
These forces were generated through both secondary
research and in-depth interviews with Foundation staff,
Foundation grantees, and external experts.

Next, all these constituents came — a multi-polar global system is

together in several exploratory emerging. One demographic
workshops to further brainstorm certainty is that global population
the content of these forces, which growth will continue and will put

Scenarios for the Future of Technology and International

could be divided into two pressure on energy, food, and
categories: predetermined water resources — especially in
elements and critical the developing world. Another
uncertainties. A good starting related certainty: that the world
point for any set of scenarios is to will strive to source more of its
understand those driving forces energy from renewable resources
that we can be reasonably certain and may succeed, but there will

Development
will shape the worlds we are likely still be a significant level
describing, also known as of global interdependence on
“predetermined elements.” For energy.
example, it is a near geopolitical
Predetermined elements are
certainty that — with the rise of
important to any scenario story, but
China, India, and other nations
14
 they are not the foundation on which uncertainties that would form the
these stories are built. Rather, basis of the scenario framework.
scenarios are formed around They chose these two uncertainties
“critical uncertainties” — driving from a longer list of potential
forces that are considered both uncertainties that might shape the
highly important to the focal issue broader contextual environment of
and highly uncertain in terms of the scenarios, including social,
their future resolution. Whereas technology, economic,
predetermined elements are environmental, and political trends.
predictable driving forces, The uncertainties that were
uncertainties are by their nature considered included, for example,
unpredictable: their outcome can be the pervasiveness of conflict in the
guessed at but not known. developing world; the frequency and
severity of shocks like economic and
While any single uncertainty could
political crises, disease, and natural
challenge our thinking, the future
disasters; and the locus of
will be shaped by multiple forces
innovation for crucial technologies
playing out over time. The scenario
for development. (A full list of the
framework provides a structured
critical uncertainties identified
way to consider how these critical
during the project, as well as a list of
uncertainties might unfold and
project participants, can be found in
evolve in combination. Identifying
the Appendix.)
the two most important uncertainties
Scenarios for the Future of Technology and International

guarantees that the resulting The two chosen uncertainties,

scenarios will differ in ways that introduced below, together define
have been judged to be critical to the a set of four scenarios for the
focal question. future of technology and
international development that
are divergent, challenging,
CHOOSING THE CRITICAL
internally consistent, and
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UNCERTAINTIES
plausible. Each of the two
During this project’s scenario uncertainties is expressed as an
creation workshop, participants — axis that represents a continuum
who represented a range of regional of possibilities ranging between
and international perspectives — two endpoints.
selected the two critical
15
 endpoint, the potential for
economic development in the
developing world would be
reduced by the fragility of the
overall global economy —
S TRONG POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC ALI GNMENT
coupled
WEAK
with protectionism and
fragmentation of trade — along
with a weakening of governance
regimes that raise barriers to
LOW ADAPTIVE CAPACITY HI GH
cooperation, thereby hindering
GLOBAL POLITICAL AND agreement on and
ECONOMIC ALIGNMENT implementation of largescale,
This uncertainty refers to both the interconnected solutions to
amount of economic integration pressing global challenges.
— the flow of goods, capital,
people, and ideas — as well as
ADAPTIVE CAPACITY
the extent to which enduring and This uncertainty refers to the
effective political structures capacity at different levels of society
enable the world to deal with to cope with change and to adapt
many of the global challenges it effectively. This ability to adapt can
faces. On one end of the axis, we mean proactively managing existing
would see a more integrated systems and structures to ensure

Scenarios for the Future of Technology and International

global economy with high trade their resilience against external
volumes, which enables access to forces, as well as the ability to
a wider range of goods and transform those systems and
services through imports and structures when a changed context
exports, and the increasing means they are no longer suitable.
specialization of exports. We Adaptive capacity is generally
would also see more cooperation associated with higher levels of

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at the supra-national level, education in a society, as well as the
fostering increased collaboration, availability of outlets for those who
strengthened global institutions, have educations to further their
and the formation of effective individual and societal well-being.
international problem-solving High levels of adaptive capacity are
networks. At the other axis typically achieved through the
16
 existence of trust in society; the criminals thrive, and
presence and tolerance of novelty dangerous innovations emerge
and diversity; the strength, variety,
and overlap of human institutions;
and the free flow of communication
and ideas, especially between and
across different levels, e.g., bottom-
up and top-down. Lower levels of
adaptive capacity emerge in the
absence of these characteristics and
leave populations particularly
vulnerable to the disruptive effects
of unanticipated shocks.

Once crossed, these axes create a

matrix of four very different futures:

LOCK STEP – A world of

tighter top-down government
control and more authoritarian
eadership, with limited
innovation and growing citizen
pushback
Scenarios for the Future of Technology and International

CLEVER TOGETHER – A world

in which
highly coordinated and
successful strategies emerge for
addressing both urgent and
entrenched worldwide issues
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HACK ATTACK – An
economically unstable and
shock-prone world in which
governments weaken,

17
 SMART SCRAMBLE – An
economically depressed world

in which individuals and

communities develop localized,

makeshift solutions to a
growing set of problems

18
THE SCENARIO • Initial observations on the
NARRATIVES changing role of
philanthropy in that world,
highlighting opportunities
The scenarios that follow are not and challenges that
meant to be exhaustive — philanthropic
organizations would face
rather, they are designed to be
and what their operating
both plausible and provocative,
environment might be like
to engage your imagination
while also raising new questions • A “day in the life” sketch
of a person living and
for you about what that future
working in that world
might look and feel like. Each
scenario tells a story of how the Please keep in mind that the
world, and in particular the scenarios in this report are stories,
developing world, might not forecasts, and the plausibility
progress over the next 15 to 20 of a scenario does not hinge on the
years, with an emphasis on those occurrence of any particular detail.
elements relating to the use of In the scenario titled “Clever
different technologies and the Together,” for example, “a
interaction of these technologies consortium of nations, NGOs
with the lives of the poor and [nongovernmental organizations],
vulnerable. Accompanying each and companies establish the
scenario is a range of elements Global Technology Assessment

Scenarios for the Future of Technology and International

that aspire to further illuminate Office” — a detail meant to
life, technology, and symbolize how a high degree of
philanthropy in that world. international coordination and
These include: adaptation might lead to the
formation of a body that
• A timeline of possible
anticipates technology’s potential
headlines and emblematic
events unfolding during societal implications. That detail,

Development
the period of the scenario along with dozens of others in
each scenario, is there to give you
• Short descriptions of what
a more tangible “feel” for the
technologies and
technology trends we world described in the scenario.
might see Please consider names, dates, and

19
 other such specifics in each
scenario as proxies for types of
events, not as necessary conditions
for any particular scenario to
unfold.

We now invite you to immerse

yourself in each future world and
consider four different visions for
the evolution of technology and
international development to 2030.

20
 Scenario
Narratives

LOCK STEP
A world of tighter top-down government control and more
authoritarian leadership, with limited innovation and growing

citizen pushback international mobility of both

people and goods screeched to
a halt, debilitating industries
In 2012, the pandemic that the like tourism and breaking
world had been anticipating for global supply chains. Even
years finally hit. Unlike 2009’s locally, normally bustling
Scenarios for the Future of Technology and International

H1N1, this new influenza strain shops and office buildings sat
— originating from wild geese empty for months, devoid of
— was extremely virulent and both employees and
deadly. Even the most customers.
pandemic-prepared nations
The pandemic
were quickly overwhelmed
blanketed the
when the virus streaked around
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planet — though
the world, infecting nearly 20
disproportionate
percent of the global
numbers died in
population and killing 8 million
Africa, Southeast
in just seven months, the
Asia, and Central
majority of them healthy young
America, where the
adults. The pandemic also had
virus spread like
a deadly effect on economies:
wildfire in the

21
absence of official far earlier than in

Scenario Narratives LOCK STEP

containment other countries and
protocols. But even enabling a swifter
in developed post- pandemic
countries, recovery.
containment was a
China’s government was not
challenge. The
the only one that took
United States’s
extreme measures to protect
initial policy of
its citizens from risk and
“strongly
exposure. During the
discouraging”
pandemic, national leaders
citizens from flying
around the world flexed
proved deadly in its
their authority and imposed
leniency,
airtight rules and
accelerating the
restrictions, from the
spread of the virus
mandatory wearing of face
not just within the
masks to body-temperature
U.S. but across
checks at the entries to
borders. However,
communal spaces like train
a few countries did
stations and supermarkets.
fare better — China
Even after the pandemic
in particular. The
faded, this more
Chinese
authoritarian control and
government’s quick
oversight of citizens and
imposition and
their activities stuck and
enforcement of
even intensified. In order to
mandatory
protect themselves from the
quarantine for all
spread of increasingly
citizens, as well as
global problems — from
its instant and near-
pandemics and transnational
hermetic sealing off
terrorism to environmental
of all borders,
crises and rising poverty —
saved millions of
leaders around the world
lives, stopping the
took a firmer grip on power.
spread of the virus
 At first, the notion of a more Across the developing world,

controlled world gained however, the story was different —

wide acceptance and and much more variable. Top-down
approval. Citizens willingly authority took different forms in
gave up some of their different countries, hinging largely
sovereignty — and their on the capacity, caliber, and
privacy — to more intentions of their leaders. In
paternalistic states in countries with strong and thoughtful
exchange for greater safety leaders, citizens’ overall economic
and stability. Citizens were status and quality of life increased.
more tolerant, and even In India, for example, air quality
eager, for top-down drastically improved after 2016,

Scenarios for the Future of Technology and International

direction and oversight, and when the government outlawed
national leaders had more highemitting vehicles. In Ghana, the
latitude to impose order in introduction of ambitious
the ways they saw fit. In government programs to improve
developed countries, this basic infrastructure and ensure the
heightened oversight took availability of clean water for all her
many forms: biometric IDs people led to a sharp decline in

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for all citizens, for example, water-borne diseases. But more
and tighter regulation of key authoritarian leadership worked less
industries whose stability well — and in some cases tragically
— in countries run by irresponsible
was deemed vital to
elites who used their increased
national interests. In
power to pursue their own interests
many developed
at the expense of their citizens.
countries, enforced
cooperation with a suite There were other downsides, as the
of new regulations and rise of virulent nationalism created
agreements slowly but new hazards: spectators at the 2018
steadily restored both World Cup, for example,
order and, importantly, 19

economic growth. wore bulletproof vests that

sported a patch of their
national flag. Strong
technology regulations stifled
 innovation, kept costs high, innovate internally to fill these

Scenario Narratives LOCK STEP

and curbed adoption. In the gaps on their own.
developing world, access to
Meanwhile, in the
“approved” technologies
developed world,
increased but beyond that
the presence of so
remained limited: the locus
many top-down
of technology innovation was
rules and norms
largely in the developed
greatly inhibited
world, leaving many
entrepreneurial
developing countries on the
activity. Scientists
receiving end of technologies
and innovators were
that others consider “best”
often told by
for them. Some
governments what
research lines to
“IT IS POSSIBLE TO pursue and were
DISCIPLINE AND guided mostly
CONTROL SOME toward projects
SOCIETIES that would make
FOR SOME TIME, BUT NOT money (e.g.,
market-driven
THE
product
WHOLE WORLD ALL THE
development) or
TIME.”
were “sure bets”
– GK Bhat, TARU Leading Edge, (e.g., fundamental
India
research), leaving
more risky or
governments found this innovative research
Scenarios for the Future of Technology and International

patronizing and refused to areas largely

distribute computers and other untapped. Well-off
technologies that they scoffed countries and
at as “second hand.” monopolistic
Meanwhile, developing companies with big
countries with more resources research and
and better capacity began to development
Development
budgets still made reality meant all IT

significant innovations. The

advances, but the IP U.S. and EU struck
behind their back with
breakthroughs retaliatory national
remained locked standards, throwing
behind strict a wrench in the
national or development and
corporate diffusion of
protection. Russia technology
and India imposed globally.
stringent domestic
Especially in the
standards for
developing world,
supervising and
acting in one’s
certifying
national self-interest
encryption-related
often meant seeking
products and their
practical alliances
suppliers — a
that fit with those
category that in

20
 Scenario Narratives LOCK STEP
interests — whether it was gaining access to later, something would inevitably upset the neat
needed resources or banding together in order to order that the world’s governments had worked so
achieve economic growth. In South America and hard to establish. •
Africa, regional and sub-regional alliances became
more structured. Kenya doubled its trade with HEADLINES IN LOCK STEP
southern and eastern Africa, as new partnerships Quarantine Restricts
grew within the continent. China’s investment in
In-Person Contact; Italy Addresses Vietnam to
Africa expanded as the bargain of new jobs and Cellular Networks 'Immigrant Caregiver' Require ‘A
infrastructure in exchange for access to key Overloaded Gap with Robots Solar Panel
minerals or food exports proved agreeable to many (2013) (2017) Every Home
(2022)
governments. Cross-border ties proliferated in the
form of official security aid. While the deployment
of foreign security teams was welcomed in some of
the most dire failed states, one-size-fits-all
solutions yielded few positive results.
2010 2015 2020
By 2025, people seemed to be growing weary of so Intercontinental Will Africa’s Prolifer
Trade Hit by Strict Embrace of Networ
much top-down control and letting leaders and
Pathogen Controls Authoritarian Eastern
authorities make choices for them. Southe
(2015) Capitalism a la
Strengt

Scenarios for the Future of Technology and International

China Continue?
Scenarios for the Future of Technology and International

Wherever national interests clashed with individual Regiona

(2018)
interests, there was conflict. Sporadic pushback (2023)
became increasingly organized and coordinated, as ROLE OF
disaffected youth and people who had seen their
status and opportunities slip away — largely in PHILANTHROPY IN LOCK
developing countries — incited civil unrest. In STEP
2026, protestors in Nigeria brought down the Philanthropic organizations will

Development
Development

government, fed up with the entrenched cronyism face hard choices in this world.
and corruption. Even those who liked the greater Given the strong role of
stability and predictability of this world began to governments, doing philanthropy
grow uncomfortable and constrained by so many will require heightened diplomacy
tight rules and by the strictness of national skills and the ability to operate
boundaries. The feeling lingered that sooner or effectively in extremely divergent
26
Scenario Narratives LOCK STEP
environments. Philanthropy grantee
and civil society relationships will
TECHNOLOGY
be strongly moderated by IN LOCK STEP
government, and some foundations While there is no way of accurately
might choose to align themselves predicting what the important
more closely with national official technological advancements will be
development assistance (ODA) in the future, the scenario
strategies and government narratives point to areas where
objectives. Larger philanthropies conditions may enable or
will retain an outsized share of accelerate the development of
influence, and many smaller certain kinds of technologies. Thus
philanthropies may find value in for each scenario we offer a sense
of the context for technological
merging financial, human, and
innovation, taking into
operational resources.
consideration the pace, geography,
Philanthropic organizations and key creators. We also suggest a
interested in promoting universal few technology trends and
rights and freedoms will get applications that could flourish in
blocked at many nations’ borders. each scenario.
Developing smart, flexible, and
Technological innovation in “Lock
wide-ranging relationships in this
Step” is largely driven by
world will be key; some
government and is focused on
philanthropies may choose to work
issues of national security and
only in places where their skills and
health and safety. Most
services don’t meet resistance.
technological improvements are
Many governments will place
created by and for developed
severe restrictions on the program
countries, shaped by governments’
areas and geographies that
dual desire to control and to
international philanthropies can
monitor their citizens. In states with
work in, leading to a narrower and
poor governance, large-scale
stronger geographic focus or grant-
projects that fail to progress
making in their home country only.
abound.

27
 Scenario Narratives LOCK STEP
Technology trends and applications populations whose travel is
we might see: restricted.

• Scanners using advanced • Driven by protectionism and

functional magnetic national security concerns,
resonance imaging (fMRI) nations create their own
technology become the norm independent, regionally
at airports and other public defined IT networks,
areas to detect abnormal mimicking China’s firewalls.
behavior that may indicate Governments have varying
“antisocial intent.” degrees of success in
policing internet traffic, but
• In the aftermath of pandemic these efforts nevertheless
scares, smarter packaging for fracture the “World Wide”
food and beverages is Web.
applied first by big
companies and producers in
a business-to-business LIFE IN LOCK STEP
environment, and then
adopted for individual Manisha gazed out on the Ganges
products and consumers. River, mesmerized by what she saw.
Back in
• New diagnostics are 2010, when she was 12 years old,
developed to detect
her parents had brought her to

Scenarios for the Future of Technology and International

communicable diseases. The
application of health this river so that she could bathe
screening also changes; in its holy waters. But standing at
screening becomes a the edge, Manisha had been
prerequisite for release from afraid. It wasn’t the depth of the
a hospital or prison, river or its currents that had
successfully slowing the
scared her, but the water itself: it
spread of many diseases.
was murky and brown and

Development
• Tele-presence technologies smelled pungently of trash and
respond to the demand for dead things. Manisha had balked,
less expensive,
but her mother had pushed her
lowerbandwidth,
forward, shouting that this river
sophisticated
communications systems for flowed from the lotus feet of

28
 Scenario Narratives LOCK STEP
Vishnu and she should be dollar cleanup initiative. But then
honored to enter it. Along with the pandemic hit, and that
millions of Hindus, her mother funding dried up. But what didn’t
believed the Ganges’s water dry up was the government’s
could cleanse a person’s soul of commitment to cleaning the
all sins and even cure the sick. So Ganges — now not just an issue
Manisha had grudgingly dunked of public health but increasingly
herself in the river, accidentally one of national pride.
swallowing water in the process
Manisha had joined the GPI in
and receiving a bad case of
2020, in part because she was so
giardia, and months of diarrhea,
impressed by the government’s
as a result.
strong stance on restoring the
Remembering that experience is ecological health of India’s most
what made today so remarkable. treasured resource. Many lives in
It was now 2025. Manisha was her home city of Jaipur had been
27 years old and a manager for saved by the government’s
the Indian government’s Ganges quarantines during the pandemic,
Purification Initiative (GPI). and that experience, thought
Until recently, the Ganges was Manisha, had given the
Scenarios for the Future of Technology and International

still one of the most polluted government the confidence to be

rivers in the world, its coliform so strict about river usage now:
bacteria levels astronomical due how else could they get millions
to the frequent disposal of human of Indian citizens to completely
and animal corpses and of shift their cultural practices in
sewage (back in 2010, 89 million relationship to a holy site?
liters per day) directly into the Discarding ritually burned bodies
Development

river. Dozens of organized in the Ganges was now illegal,

attempts to clean the Ganges punishable by years of jail time.
over the years had failed. In Companies found to be dumping
2009, the World Bank even waste of any kind in the river
loaned India $1 billion to support were immediately shut down by
the government’s multi-billion the government. There were also
29
 Scenario Narratives LOCK STEP
severe restrictions on where mini-temples. In fact, that’s why
people could bathe and where Manisha was at the river today,
they could wash clothing. Every to oversee the installation of a
20 meters along the river was filtration system located not even
marked by a sign outlining the 100 feet from where she first
repercussions of “disrespecting stepped into the Ganges as a girl.
India’s most treasured natural The water looked so much
resource.” Of course, not cleaner now, and recent tests
everyone liked it; protests flared suggested that it might even
every so often. But no one could meet drinkability standards by
deny that the Ganges was 2035. Manisha was tempted to
looking more beautiful and kick off her shoe and dip her toe
healthier than ever. in, but this was a restricted area
now — and she, of all people,
Manisha watched as an
would never break that law.
engineering team began
unloading equipment on the
banks. Many top Indian
scientists and engineers had been
recruited by the government to

Scenarios for the Future of Technology and International

develop tools and strategies for
cleaning the Ganges in more
high-tech ways. Her favorite
were the submersible bots that
continuously “swam” the river to
detect, through sensors, the
presence of chemical pathogens.

Development
New riverside filtration systems
that sucked in dirty river water
and spit out far cleaner water
were also impressive —
especially because on the outside
they were designed to look like
30
 CLEVER TOGETHER
A world in which highly coordinated and successful strategies
emerge for addressing both urgent and entrenched

worldwide issues blistering pace as millions poured in

from rural areas. Countries raced to
industrialize by whatever means
The recession of 2008-10 necessary; the global marketplace
did not turn into the bustled.
Scenarios for the Future of Technology and International

decades-long global
But two big problems loomed. First,
economic slide that many
not all people and places benefited
had feared. In fact, quite
equally from this return to
the opposite: strong
globalized growth: all boats were
global growth returned
rising, but some were clearly rising
in force, with the world
more. Second, those hell-bent on
headed once again
development
Development

toward the
demographic and economic and expansion
projections forecasted largely ignored
before the downturn. the very real
India and China were on track to see environmental
their middle classes explode to 1 consequences of
billion by 2020. Mega-cities like their unrestricted
Sao Paulo and Jakarta expanded at a growth.

31
Undeniably, the atmospheric carbon

Scenario Narratives CLEVER TOGETHER

planet’s climate dioxide levels were
was becoming climbing
increasingly precipitously created
unstable. Sea new urgency and
levels were pressure for
rising fast, even governments (really,
as countries for everyone) to do
continued to something fast.
build-out coastal In such an
mega-cities. In interconnected
2014, the world, where the
Hudson River behaviors of one
overflowed into country, company,
New or individual had
York City during a potentially high-
storm surge, turning impact effects on all
the World Trade others, piecemeal
Center site into a attempts by one
three-foot-deep lake. nation here, one
The image of small collective of
motorboats environmental
navigating through organizations there,
lower Manhattan would not be
jarred the world’s enough to stave off
most powerful a climate disaster —
nations into or, for that matter,
realizing that to effectively
climate change was address a host of
not just a other planetary-
developing-world scale problems. But
problem. That same highly coordinated
year, new worldwide strategies
measurements for addressing such
showing that urgent issues just
might. What was improving the

needed was systems absorptive

thinking — and capacity of the
systems acting — natural
on a global scale. environment over
the long term. In
International
2017, an
coordination
international
started slowly,
agreement was
then accelerated
reached on
faster than
carbon
anyone had
sequestration (by
imagined. In
then, most
2015, a critical
multinational
mass of middle
corporations had
income and
a chief carbon
developed
officer) and
countries with
intellectual and
strong economic
financial
growth publicly
resources were
committed to
pooled to build
leveraging their
out carbon
resources against
capture processes
global-scale
that would best
problems,
support the global
beginning with
ecosystem. A
climate change.
functioning
Together, their
global cap and
governments
trade system was
hashed out plans
also established.
for monitoring
Worldwide, the
and reducing
pressure to
greenhouse gas
reduce waste and
emissions in the
increase
short term and
efficiency in
 planet-friendly levels of transparency, which in turn

Scenario Narratives CLEVER TOGETHER

ways was required more tech-enabled data
enormous. New collection, processing, and
globally feedback. Enormous, benign
coordinated “sousveillance” systems allowed
systems for citizens to access data — all
monitoring publically available — in real time
energy use and react. Nation-states lost some of
capacity — their power and importance as
including smart global architecture strengthened and
grids and bottom- regional governance structures
up pattern emerged.
recognition International oversight entities like
technologies — the UN
were rolled out. 27
These efforts took on new levels of
produced real authority, as did
results: by 2022, regional systems like
new projections the Association of
showed a Southeast Asian
significant Nations (ASEAN), the
slowing in the New Partnership for
rise of Africa’s Development
atmospheric (NEPAD), and the
carbon levels. Asian
Development Bank (ADB). The
Inspired by the success of this worldwide spirit
experiment in collective global
action, large-scale coordinated “WHAT IS OFTEN
initiatives intensified. Centralized
SURPRISING
global oversight and governance
structures sprang up, not just for
energy use but also for disease and
Scenarios for the Future of Technology and International

technology standards. Such systems

and structures required far greater
Development
 28
ABOUT NEW

TECHNOLOGIES
delivery and health
IS COLLATERAL outcomes.
DAMAGE: THE Companies, NGOs,
EXTENT OF THE and governments
PROBLEM THAT — often acting
YOU CAN CREATE together —
BY SOLVING launched pilot
programs and
ANOTHER PROBLEM
learning labs to
IS ALWAYS A
figure out how to
BIT OF A SURPRISE.”
best meet the needs
– Michael Free, Program for of particular
Appropriate Technology in communities,
Health (PATH) of collaboration increasing the
also fostered new knowledge base of
alliances and alignments what worked and
Scenarios for the Future of Technology and International

among corporations, what didn’t.

NGOs, and Pharmaceuticals
communities. giants released
thousands of drug
These strong alliances laid the
compounds shown
groundwork for more global
to be effective
and participatory attempts to
against diseases
Development

solve big problems and raise

like malaria into the
the standard of living of
public domain as
everyone. Coordinated efforts
part of an “open
to tackle longentrenched
innovation”
problems like hunger, disease, and
agenda; they also
access to basic needs took hold.
opened their
New inexpensive technologies like
archives of R&D
better medical diagnostics and more
on neglected
effective vaccines improved
diseases deemed
healthcare
not commercially
viable, offering developing and

Scenario Narratives CLEVER TOGETHER

seed funding to developed countries
scientists who alike. All of these
wanted to carry the efforts translated
research forward. into real progress on
real problems,
There was a push for
opening up new
major innovations in
opportunities
energy and water for
the developing
world, as those areas
were thought to be
the key to
improving equity.
Better food
distribution was also
high on the agenda,
and more open
markets and south-
south trade helped
make this a reality.
In 2022, a
consortium of
nations, NGOs, and
companies
established the
Global Technology
Assessment Office,
providing easily
accessible, real-time
information about
the costs and
benefits of various
technology
applications to
Scenario Narratives CLEVER TOGETHER
to address the needs of the bottom billion — and to solar created new “sun” jobs, drastically cut CO2
enabling developing countries to become engines of emissions, and earned governments billions
growth in their own right. annually. India exploited its geography to create
similar “solar valleys” while decentralized
In many parts of the developing world, economic
solarpowered drip irrigation systems became
growth rates increased due to a host of factors.
popular in sub-Saharan Africa.
Improved infrastructure accelerated the greater
mobility of both people and goods, and urban and Reduced energy dependency enabled all of these
rural areas got better connected. In Africa, growth countries and regions to better control and manage
that started on the coasts spread inward along new their own resources. In Africa, political architecture
transportation corridors. Increased trade drove the above the nation-state level, like the African Union,
specialization of individual firms and the overall strengthened and contributed to a “good
diversification of economies. In many places, governance” drive. Regional integration through
traditional social barriers to overcoming poverty COMESA (the Common Market for Eastern and
grew less relevant as more people gained access to a Southern Africa) and other institutions allowed
spectrum of useful technologies — from disposable member nations to better organize to meet their
computers to doit-yourself (DIY) windmills. collective needs as consumers and increasingly as
producers.
Given the circumstances that forced these new
heights of global cooperation and responsibility, it Over the course of two decades, enormous strides

Scenarios for the Future of Technology and International

was no surprise that much of the growth in the were made to make the world less wasteful, more
developing world was achieved more cleanly and efficient, and more inclusive. But the world was far
more “greenly.” In Africa, there was a big push for from perfect. There were still failed states and
solar energy, as the physical geography and low places with few resources. Moreover, such rapid
population density of much of the continent progress had created new problems. Rising
enabled the proliferation of solar farms. The consumption standards unexpectedly ushered in a
Desertec initiative to create massive thermal new set of pressures: the improved food distribution

Development
electricity plants to supply both North Africa and, system, for example, generated a food production
via undersea cable lines, Southern Europe was a crisis due to greater demand. Indeed, demand for
huge success. By 2025, a majority of electricity in everything was growing exponentially. By 2028,
the Maghreb was coming from solar, with exports despite ongoing efforts to guide “smart growth,” it
of that power earning valuable foreign currency. was becoming clear that the world could not support
The switch such rapid growth forever. •
37
 Scenario Narratives CLEVER TOGETHER
and networks increasingly key,
HEADLINES IN CLEVER philanthropies work in a more
TOGETHER virtual way, characterized by lots of
'Info Cruncher' Is wikis, blogs, workspaces, video
Grads' Job of
conferences, and virtual convenings.
Consortium of Foundations
Smaller philanthropies proliferate,
Global Economy Choice as Data
First: U.S. Solar Launches Third Green with a growing number of major
Turns the Corner Era Dawns donors emerging from the
Cheaper than CoalRevolution as Food developing world.
(2011) (2016) (2020)
Shortages Loom (2027) Systems thinking and knowledge
management prove to be critical
skills, as philanthropic organizations
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
seek to share and spread best
practices, identify leapfrog
Radical U.S. and China Green Infrastructure
opportunities, and better spot
Emission Targets Signal Reshapes Economic
New Era in Climate Landscape
problems in failed or weak states.
Change (2018) There are considerable flows of
Negotiations talent between the for-profit and
(2015) nonprofit sectors, and the lines
Scenarios for the Future of Technology and International

ROLE OF PHILANTHROPY IN between these types of organizations

CLEVER TOGETHER become increasingly blurred.
In this world, philanthropic
organizations focus their attention on TECHNOLOGY IN
the needs of the bottom billion, CLEVER TOGETHER
collaborating with governments, In “Clever Together,” strong global
businesses, and local NGOs to cooperation on a range of issues
Development

improve standards of living around drives technological breakthroughs

the globe. Operationally, this is a that combat disease, climate change,
“virtual model” world in which and energy shortages. Trade and
philanthropies use all of the tools at foreign direct investment spread
their disposal to reinforce and technologies in all directions and
bolster their work. With partnerships make products cheaper for people in
38
Scenario Narratives CLEVER TOGETHER
the developing world, thereby • Advances in low-cost mind-
widening access to a range of controlled prosthetics aid the
80 percent of global amputees
technologies. The atmosphere of
who live in developing
cooperation and transparency allows countries.
states and regions to glean insights
from massive datasets to vastly • Solar power is made vastly
more efficient through
improve the management and
advances in materials,
allocation of financial and including polymers and
environmental resources. nanoparticles. An effective
combination of government
Technology trends and applications subsidies and microfinance
we might see: means solar is used for
• The cost of capturing data everything from desalination
through nanosensors and for agriculture to wi-fi
smart networks falls networks.
precipitously. In many • Flexible and rapid mobile
developing countries, this payment systems drive
leads to a proliferation of new dynamic economic growth in
and useful services, including the developing world, while
“sousveillance” mechanisms the developed world is
that improve governance and hampered by entrenched

Scenarios for the Future of Technology and International

enable more efficient use of banking interests and
government resources. regulation.
• Intelligent electricity, water
distribution, and LIFE IN CLEVER
transportation systems
develop in urban areas. In
TOGETHER
these “smart cities,” internet
Standing next to his desk at the
access is seen as a basic right

Development
by the late 2010s. World Meat Science Lab in

Zurich, Alec took another bite of

• A malaria vaccine is
developed and deployed the steak that his lab assistants had
broadly — saving millions of just presented to him and chewed
lives in the developing world. it rather thoughtfully. This wasn’t

39
 Scenario Narratives CLEVER TOGETHER
just any steak. It was research. world working together right here
Alec and his research team had in his lab. He also had access to
been working for months to seemingly infinite amounts of data
fabricate a new meat product — and information on everything
one that tasted just like beef yet from global taste preferences to
actually contained only 50 percent meat distribution patterns — and
meat; the remaining half was a just a few touches on his lab’s
combination of synthetic meat, research screens (so much easier
fortified grains, and nano- than the clunky computers and
flavoring. Finding the “right” keyboards of the old days) gave
formula for that combo had kept him instant access to every piece
the lab’s employees working of research ever done in meat
around the clock in recent weeks. science or related fields from the
And judging from the look on 1800s up through the present
Alec’s face, their work wasn’t (literally the present — access to
over. “The flavor is still a few posted scientific research was
degrees off,” he told them. “And nearly instantaneous, delayed by a
Kofi and Alana — see what we mere 1.3 seconds).
can do about enhancing this
Alec also had strong motivation.
texture.”
Scenarios for the Future of Technology and International

There was no doubt that meat

As Alec watched his team science — indeed, all science —
scramble back to their lab was much more exciting,
benches, he felt confident that it challenging, and rewarding in
wouldn’t be long before they 2023 than it was a few decades
would announce the invention of ago. The shift from “lone wolf”
an exciting new meat product that science to globally coordinated
Development

would be served at dinner tables and open-platform research had

everywhere. And, in truth, Alec’s greatly accelerated the speed and
confidence was very well spread of breakthrough ideas and
founded. For one, he had the developments in all fields. As a
world’s best and brightest minds result, scientists were making real
in food science from all over the progress in addressing planet-wide
40
Scenario Narratives CLEVER TOGETHER
problems that had previously as he searched around his desk for
seemed so intractable: people the fork.
were no longer dying as
frequently from preventable
diseases, for example, and
alternative fuels were now
mainstream.

But other trends were troubling —

especially to a scientist who had
spent his whole career researching
food. In cities and villages around
the world where children used to
be hungry, access to higher-
calorie meals had produced
alarming increases in the
incidence of obesity and diabetes.
The demand for meat, in
particular, was rising, but adding
more animals to the planet created

Scenarios for the Future of Technology and International

its own set of problems, such as
more methane and spiking water
demand. And that’s where Alec
saw both need and opportunity:
why not make the planet’s meat
supply go further by creating a
healthier alternative that

Development
contained less real meat?

“Alec, we have a new version for

you to try,” yelled Kofi from across
the lab. That was fast, thought Alec,

41
 HACK ATTACK
An economically unstable and shock-prone world in
which governments weaken, criminals thrive,

and dangerous Southeast Asian tsunami of

2004, and the 2010 Haiti
innovations earthquake had certainly
primed the world for sudden
emerge
disasters. But no one was
prepared for a world in which
Devastating large-scale catastrophes would
shocks like occur with such breathtaking
frequency. The years 2010 to
2020 were dubbed the “doom
Scenarios for the Future of Technology and International

decade” for good reason: the

2012 Olympic bombing, which
killed 13,000, was followed
closely by an earthquake in
Indonesia killing 40,000, a
tsunami that almost wiped out
Nicaragua, and the onset of the
Development

West China Famine, caused by

a once-in-a-millennium
drought linked to climate
change.
September 11, the

42
Not surprisingly, this opening spending to

series of deadly asynchronous domestic

catastrophes (there were more) concerns,
put enormous pressure on an pulling out of
already overstressed global Afghanistan —
economy that had entered the where the
decade still in recession. resurgent
Massive humanitarian relief Taliban seized
efforts cost vast sums of power once
money, but the primary sources again. In
— from aid agencies to Europe, Asia,
developed-world governments South America,
— had run out of funds to and Africa, more
offer. Most nation-states could and more
no longer afford their locked-in nationstates lost
costs, let alone respond to control of their
increased citizen demands for public finances,
more security, more healthcare along with the
coverage, more social capacity to help
programs and services, and their citizens
more infrastructure repair. In and retain
2014, when mudslides in Lima stability and
buried thousands, only minimal order. Resource
help trickled in, prompting the scarcities and
Economist headline: trade disputes,
“Is the Planet Finally together with
Bankrupt?” severe economic
and climate
These dire
stresses, pushed
circumstances
many alliances
forced tough
and partnerships
tradeoffs. In
to the breaking
2015, the U.S.
point; they also
reallocated a
sparked proxy
large share of its
wars and low-
defense
level conflict in and safety nets

Scenario Narratives HACK ATTACK

resource-rich evaporating,
parts of the violence and
developing crime grew
world. Nations more rampant.
raised trade Countries with
barriers in order ethnic,
to protect their religious, or
domestic sectors class divisions
against imports saw especially
and — in the sharp spikes in
face of global hostility:
food and Naxalite
resource separatists
shortages — to dramatically
reduce exports expanded their
of agricultural guerrilla
produce and campaign in
other East India;
commodities. IsraeliPalestini
By 2016, the an bloodshed
global escalated; and
coordination and across Africa,
interconnectedn fights over
ess that had resources
marked the post- erupted along
Berlin Wall ethnic or tribal
world was lines.
tenuous at best. Meanwhile,
overtaxed
With
militaries and
government
police forces
power
could do little
weakened,
to stop growing
order rapidly
communities of
disintegrating,
criminals and cocaine,

terrorists from weapons, and

gaining power. operatives.
Technology- Drug and gun
enabled gangs money became
and networked a common
criminal recruiting tool
enterprises for the
exploited both desperately
the weakness poor.
of states and
Criminal networks also grew
the desperation
highly skilled at counterfeiting
of individuals.
licit goods through reverse
With
engineering. Many of these
increasing ease,
“rip-offs” and copycats were of
these “global
poor quality or downright
guerillas”
dangerous. In the context of
moved illicit
weak health systems,
products

Scenarios for the Future of Technology and International

corruption, and inattention to
through
standards — either within
underground
countries or from global bodies
channels from
like the World Health
poor producer
Organization — tainted
countries to
vaccines entered the public
markets in the
health systems of several
developed
Development

African countries. In 2021, 600

world. Using
children in Cote d’Ivoire died
retired 727s
from a bogus Hepatitis B
and other rogue
vaccine, which paled in
aircraft, they
comparison to the scandal
crisscrossed the
sparked by mass deaths from a
Atlantic, from
tainted anti-malarial drug years
South America
later. The deaths and resulting
to Africa,
scandals sharply affected
transporting
public confidence in vaccine
delivery; parents not just in began to avoid vaccinating

Scenario Narratives HACK ATTACK

Africa but elsewhere their children, and it

Scenarios for the Future of Technology and International

wasn’t long before infant
35
and child
“WE HAVE THIS LOVE
mortality rates
AFFAIR
rose to levels
WITH STRONG not seen since the
CENTRAL 1970s.
STATES,
Development

Technology
BUT THAT’S NOT THE
hackers were
ONLY
also hard at
POSSIBILITY.
work. Internet scams
TECHNOLOGY IS and pyramid
GOING TO schemes plagued inboxes.
MAKE THIS Meanwhile,
EVEN MORE more sophisticated
REAL FOR hackers attempted to
AFRICA. take down
THERE IS THE corporations, government
SAME systems, and banks via
CELLPHONE phishing scams and database
PENETRATION information heists, and their

RATE IN many successes generated

billions of dollars in losses.
SOMALIA AS IN
Desperate to protect
RWANDA.
themselves and their
IN THAT RESPECT,
intellectual property, the few
SOMALIA
multinationals
WORK
36
S.”
still thriving
– Aidan
Eyakuze, Society enacted strong,
for International increasingly
Development,
complex
Tanzania
defensive
measures. made the cross-

Patent pollination of
applications ideas and
skyrocketed research
and patent difficult at best.
thickets Blockbuster
proliferated, as pharmaceutical
companies s quickly
fought to became
claim and artifacts of the
control even past, replaced
the tiniest by increased
innovations. production of
Security generics.
measures and Breakthrough
screenings innovations still
tightened. happened in
various
This “wild
industries, but
west”
they were
environment
focused more
had a profound
on technologies
impact on
that could not
innovation. The
be easily
threat of being
replicated or re-
hacked and the
engineered.
presence of so
And once
many thefts and
created, they
fakes lowered
were
the incentives
vigorously
to create “me
guarded by
first” rather
their inventors
than “me too”
— or even by
technologies.
their nations. In
And so many
2022, a biofuel
patent thickets
breakthrough in

Scenario Narratives HACK ATTACK

Brazil was
protected as a
national
treasure and
used as a
bargaining chip
in trade with
other countries.

Verifying
the
authentic
ity of
anything
was
increasin
gly
difficult.
The
heroic
efforts of
several
compani
es and
NGOs to
create
 Scenario Narratives HACK ATTACK

environment to experiment with advanced medical

treatments and other under-the-radar activities.

Those who couldn’t buy their way out of chaos —

which was most people — retreated to whatever
recognized seals of safety and approval proved “safety” they could find. With opportunity frozen
ineffective when even those seals were hacked. and global mobility at a near standstill — no place
The positive effects of the mobile and internet wanted more people, especially more poor people —
revolutions were tempered by their increasing it was often a retreat to the familiar: family ties,
fragility as scamming and viruses proliferated, religious beliefs, or even national allegiance. Trust
preventing these networks from achieving the was afforded to those who guaranteed safety and
reliability required to become the backbone of survival — whether it was a warlord, an evangelical
developing economies — or a source of preacher, or a mother. In some places, the collapse
trustworthy information for anybody. of state capacity led to a resurgence of feudalism. In
other areas, people managed to create more resilient
Interestingly, not all of the “hacking” was bad.
communities operating as isolated micro versions of
Genetically modified crops (GMOs) and do- formerly large-scale systems. The weakening of
ityourself (DIY) biotech became backyard and national governments also enabled grassroots
garage activities, producing important advances. In movements to form and grow, creating rays of hope
2017, a network of renegade African scientists who amid the bleakness. By 2030, the distinction between

Scenarios for the Future of Technology and International

Scenarios for the Future of Technology and International

had returned to their home countries after working “developed” and “developing” nations no longer
in Western multinationals unveiled the first of a seemed particularly descriptive or relevant. •
range of new GMOs that boosted agricultural
productivity on the continent.
HEADLINES IN HACK ATTACK
But despite such efforts, the global have/havenot Millennium Islamic Terror
Development Goals Networks Thrive in
gap grew wider than ever. The very rich still had the
Pushed Back to 2020 Latin America
financial means to protect themselves; gated

Development
Development

(2012) (2016) Doctors Without Bor

communities sprung up from New York to Lagos, Confined Within Bor
providing safe havens surrounded by slums. In (2020)
2025, it was de rigueur to build not a house but a
high-walled fortress, guarded by armed personnel. 2010 2015 2020
The wealthy also capitalized on the loose regulatory
49
 Scenario Narratives HACK ATTACK
Violence Against Congo Death Toll Hits destabilization. They also pursue a
Minorities and 10,000 in Malaria
less global approach, retreating to
Immigrants Drug Scandal (2018)
Spikes Across Asia
doing work in their home countries
(2014) or a few countries that they know
well and perceive as being safe.
ROLE OF
PHILANTHROPY
IN HACK ATTACK
Philanthropy is less about affecting
change than about promoting
stability and addressing basic
survival needs. Philanthropic
organizations move to support TECHNOLOGY
urgent humanitarian efforts at the IN HACK ATTACK
grassroots level, doing “guerrilla Mounting obstacles to market access
philanthropy” by identifying the and to knowledge creation and
“hackers” and innovators who are sharing slow the pace of
catalysts of change in local settings. technological innovation. Creative
Yet identifying pro-social repurposing of existing technologies

Scenarios for the Future of Technology and International

entrepreneurs is a challenge, because — for good and bad — is
verification is difficult amid so widespread, as counterfeiting and IP
much scamming and deception. theft lower incentives for original
innovation. In a world of trade
The operational model in this world
disputes and resource scarcities,
is a “fortress model” in which
much effort focuses on finding
philanthropic organizations coalesce
replacements for what is no longer
into a strong, single unit to combat

Development
available. Pervasive insecurity
fraud and lack of trust.
means that tools of aggression and
Philanthropies’ biggest assets are
protection — virtual as well as
their reputation, brand, and
corporeal — are in high demand, as
legal/financial capacity to ward off
are technologies that will allow
threats and attempts at
50
Scenario Narratives HACK ATTACK

hedonistic escapes from the stresses • With the cost of cosmetic

of life. surgery dropping, procedures
like the lunchtime facelift
Technology trends and applications become routine among
we might see: emerging middle classes.

• Echoing the rise of synthetic

chemicals in the nineteenth
LIFE IN HACK ATTACK
century, synthetic biology,
often state-funded, is used to Trent never thought that his
“grow” resources and past experience as a government
foodstuffs that have become intelligence officer would convert
scarce.
into something…philanthropic.
• New threats like weaponized But in a world full of deceit and
biological pathogens and scamming, his skills at discerning
destructive botnets dominate fact from fiction and developing
public attention, but enduring quick yet deep local knowledge
technologies, like the AK-47,
were highly prized. For three
also remain weapons of
choice for global guerrillas. months now he had been working
for a development organization,
• The internet is overrun with hired to find out what was
spam and security threats and
happening in the “grey” areas in
becomes strongly associated
with illicit activity — Botswana — a country that was
especially on “dark webs” once praised for its good
where no government can governance but whose laws and
monitor, identify, or restrict institutions had begun to falter in
activities. the last few years, with corruption
• Identity-verification on the rise. His instructions were
technologies become a staple simple: focus not on the
of daily life, with some dysfunctional (which, Trent could
hitches — a database of retina see, was everywhere) but rather
recordings stolen by hackers
look through the chaos to see what
in 2017 is used to create
numerous false identities still was actually working. Find local
“at large” in the mid-2020s. innovations and practices that
51
 Scenario Narratives HACK ATTACK

were smart and good and might be and an AK-47 in the other. This
adopted or implemented wasn’t the Botswana he
elsewhere. “Guerrilla remembered way back when he
philanthropy” was what they was stationed here 20 years ago as
called it, a turn of phrase that he an embassy employee.
liked quite a bit.
The organization that hired him was
His trip into Botswana had been probably more right than it realized
eventful — to put it mildly. On- in calling it guerrilla philanthropy.
time flights were rare these days, After many weeks spent chasing
and the plane got diverted three down leads in Gaborone, then an
times because of landing unfortunate stint that had him hiking
authorization snafus. At the for miles alone through the Kalahari
Gaborone airport, it took Trent six Desert, Trent found himself
hours to clear customs and traveling deep into the Chobe Forest
immigration. The airport was (a nice reprieve, he thought, from
bereft of personnel, and those on inhaling all that sand). One of his
duty took their time scrutinizing informants had told him about a
and re-scrutinizing his visa. group of smart youngsters who had
Botswana had none of the high- set up their own biotechnology lab

Scenarios for the Future of Technology and International

Scenarios for the Future of Technology and International

tech biometric scanning on the banks of the Chobe River,

checkpoints — technology that
which ran along the forest’s
could literally see right through
northern boundary. He’d been
you — that most developed
outfitted with ample funds for grant-
nations had in abundance in their
making, not the forest bribes he had
airports, along their borders, and
heard so much about; regardless of
in government buildings. Once
what was taking place in the world

Development
Development

out of the airport Trent was

around him, he was under strict
shocked by how many guns he
orders to behave ethically. Trent
saw — not just slung on the
was also careful to cover his tracks
shoulders of police, but carried by
to avoid being kidnapped by
regular people. He even saw a
international crime syndicates —
mother with a baby in one arm
52
Scenario Narratives HACK ATTACK

including the Russian mafia and the

Chinese triads — that had become
very active and influential in
Botswana. But he’d made it
through, finally, to the lab, which he
later learned was under the
protection of the local gun lord. As
expected, counterfeit vaccines were
being manufactured. But so were
GMO seeds. And synthetic proteins.
And a host of other innovations that
the people who hired him would
love to know about.

53
 SMART SCRAMBLE

An economically depressed world in which individuals and

communities develop localized, makeshift solutions to a
growing set of public debt burden hanging over
the developed world continued to
problems depress economic activity, both
there and in developing countries
with economies dependent on
The global exporting to (formerly) rich
recession that started markets. Without the ability to
Scenarios for the Future of Technology and International

in 2008 did not trail off boost economic activity, many

in 2010 but dragged countries saw their debts deepen
onward. and civil unrest and crime rates
Vigorous attempts climb. The United States, too, lost
to jumpstart markets much of its presence and
and economies didn’t credibility on the international
work, or at least not fast stage due to deepening debt,
Development

enough to reverse debilitated markets, and a

the steady distracted government. This, in
downward pull. The turn, led to the fracturing or
combined private and decoupling of many international

54
collaborations started by or reliant world. Indeed,

on the U.S.’s continued strength. nearly all foreign

investment in
Also in trouble
Africa — as well
was China, where
as formal,
social stability
institutional
grew more
flows of aid and
precarious.
other support for
Depressed
the poorest
economic
countries — was
activity,
cut back except
combined with
in the gravest
the ecological
humanitarian
consequences of
emergencies.
China’s rapid
Overall,
growth, started to
economic
take their toll,
stability felt so
causing the shaky
shaky that the
balance that had
occurrence of a
held since 1989
sudden climate
to finally break
shock or other
down. With their
disaster would
focus trained on
likely send the
managing the
world into a
serious political
tailspin. Luckily,
and economic
those big shocks
instability at
didn’t occur,
home, the
though there was
Chinese sharply
a lingering
curtailed their
concern that they
investments in
could in the
Africa and other
future.
parts of the
developing
 Not that anyone they headed back

Scenario Narratives SMART SCRAMBLE

had time to think to their home
about the future countries, taking
— present their education
challenges were and skills with
too pressing. In them. Reverse
the developed migration left
world, holes in the
unemployment communities of
rates skyrocketed. departure — both
So did socially and
xenophobia, as literally — as
companies and stores formerly
industries gave the owned by
few available jobs immigrants stood
to native-born empty.
citizens, shunning
And their
foreign-born
homelands needed
applicants. Great
them. Across the
numbers of
developing world
immigrants who
and especially in
had resettled in
Africa, economic
the developed
survival was now
world suddenly
firmly in local
found that the
hands. With little
economic
help or aid
opportunities that
coming through
had drawn them
“official” and
were now paltry at
organized
best. By 2018,
channels — and in
London had been
the absence of
drained of
strong trade and
immigrants, as
foreign currency
 earnings — most urban divide gaped wider, as more

people and limited availability and access to

communities had resources like IT and trade made
no choice but to survival and self-sufficiency much
help themselves more challenging for non-urban
and, increasingly, dwellers. Communications and
one another. Yet interactions that formerly served
“survival” and to bridge one family or one
“success” varied village or one student with their
greatly by location counterparts in other places —
— not just by from emailing to phone calls to
country, but by web postings — became less
city and by reliable. Internet access had not
community. progressed far beyond its 2010
Communities status, in part because the
inside failed states investment dollars needed to build
suffered the most, out the necessary infrastructure
their poor growing simply weren’t there. When
still poorer. In cellphone towers or fiber optic
many places, the cables broke down, repairs were
failures of often delayed by months or even
political years. As a result, only people in
leadership and the certain geographies had access to
stresses of the latest
economic
43
weakness and
“THE
social conflict
SPREADING
stifled the ability
OF IDEAS
of people to rise
above their dire
DEPENDS
circumstances.
ON ACCESS
TO
Not surprisingly, across much of
the developing world the rural-
d International
 Scenarios for the Future of Techno
Development
COMMUNI i
v
Scenario Narratives SMART SCRAMBLE

CATION, e
PEER (
GROUPS, AND I
I
COMMUNITIES OF H
PRACTICE. EVEN IF )
,
SOMEONE
HAS M
I
BLUEPRINTS T
TO MAKE
SOMETHING,
THEY MAY NOT
HAVE THE communication and
MATERIALS OR internet gadgets, while
Scenarios for the Future of Technology and International

others became more

KNOWHOW. IN A
isolated for lack of
WORLD SUCH AS
such connections.
THIS, HOW DO
YOU CREATE But there were silver
AN ECOSYSTEM OF linings. Government
RESEARCH capacity improved in more
AMONG THESE advanced parts of the
Development

COMMUNITIES?” developing world where

– Jose Gomez- economies had already
Marquez, begun to generate a self-
Program
Director for the sustaining dynamic before the
Innovations in 2008-2010 crisis, such as
International Indonesia, Rwanda, Turkey, and
Health
i Vietnam. Areas with good access
n to natural resources, diverse skill
i
t sets,
i
a
t
44 Ghanaian MIT

and a stronger set professor, working

of overlapping with resettled

institutions did far pharma

better than others; researchers, helped

so did cities and invent a cheap

communities edible vaccine

where large against

numbers of tuberculosis that

“returnees” helped dramatically

drive change and reduced childhood

improvement. mortality across

Most innovation in the continent. In

these better-off Nairobi, returnees

places involved launched a local

modifying existing “vocational

devices and education for all”

technologies to be project that proved

more adaptive to a wildly successful

specific context. and was soon

But people also replicated in other

found or invented parts of sub-

new ways — Saharan Africa.

technological and Makeshift, “good

non-technological enough”
— to improve technology
their capacity to solutions —
survive and, in addressing
some cases, to everything from
raise their overall water purification
living standards. and harnessing
In Accra, a energy to
returning improved crop
yield and disease

Scenario Narratives SMART SCRAMBLE

control —
emerged to fill
the gaps.
Communities
grew tighter.
Micromanufacturi
ng, communal
gardens, and
patchwork energy
grids were created
at the local level
for local
purposes. Many
communities took
on the aura of co-
ops, some even
launching
 scaled. More complex engineering solutions proved
Scenario Narratives SMART SCRAMBLE even more difficult to develop and diffuse.

By 2025, collaboration was finally improving, with

ecosystems of research and sharing — many of them
“virtual” — beginning to emerge. Yet without major
progress in global economic integration and
currencies designed to boost local trade and bring
collaboration, many worried that good ideas would
communities closer together. Nowhere was this
stay isolated, and survival and success would remain
more true than in India, where localized
a local — not a global or national — phenomenon. •
experiments proliferated, and succeeded or failed,
with little connection to or impact on other parts of
the country — or the world.
HEADLINES IN SMART
SCRAMBLE
These developments were encouraging, but also National Medical Labs
frustrating. In the absence of enduring trade and FDI in
channels, local experiments and innovations could Southeast Asia Herald Chinese Government
New Diagnostics for Pressured as
neither scale nor boost overall growth. For those
Native Diseases Protests Famine Hau
looking, it was difficult to find or access creative (2013) Spread to 250 Cities Ethiopia—A
solutions. Scaling was further inhibited by the lack (2017) (2022)
of compatible technology standards, making

Scenarios for the Future of Technology and International

Scenarios for the Future of Technology and International

innovations difficult to replicate. Apps developed in 2010 2015 2020

rural China simply didn’t work in urban India.

High-speed internet access — which gradually Low-Cost Water 'Returnee'

Purification Device Halves Innovators
emerged in some areas despite weak government or
Diarrhea Deaths in India Struggle to Expand
philanthropic support — did help, enabling students (2015) Sales
in isolated pockets in the developing world to access Beyond Home Markets

Development
Development

knowledge and instruction through the written word (2020)

and other media like video. But the development of ROLE OF PHILANTHROPY IN
tangible devices, products, and innovations SMART SCRAMBLE
continued to lag in places where local Philanthropic organizations look to
manufacturing skills and capacities had not yet fund at the grassroots level, in order
61
 Scenario Narratives SMART SCRAMBLE

to reach people more quickly and TECHNOLOGY IN

solve short-term problems. The
SMART SCRAMBLE
meta-goal in this world is to scale
Economic and political instability
up: to identify and build capacity
fracture societies in the developed
from the individual through the
world, resources for technology
institutional, because without global
development diminish, and talented
coordination, innovation cannot
immigrants are forced to return to
scale on its own. Philanthropy
their countries of origin. As a result,
requires a keen screening capacity to
capacity and knowledge are
identify highly localized solutions,
distributed more widely, allowing
with specialized pockets of expertise
many small pockets of do-it-yourself
that make partnerships more
innovation to emerge. Low-tech,
challenging and transitions between
“good enough” solutions abound,
sectors and issues harder to achieve.
cobbled together with whatever
Philanthropy operations are materials and designs can be found.
decentralized; headquarters are less However, the transfer of cutting-
important, and the ability to quickly edge technology through foreign
access different parts of the world direct investment is rare. Structural
and reconfigure teams on short deficiencies in the broader

Scenarios for the Future of Technology and International

notice is key. Office space is rented innovation ecosystem — in
by the day or week, not the month or accessing capital, markets, and a
year, because more people are in the stable internet — and in the
field — testing, evaluating, and proliferation of local standards limit
reporting on myriad pilot projects. wider growth and development.

Scenario Narratives SMART SCRAMBLE Technology trends and applications

we might see:

Development
• Energy technology
improvements are geared
more toward efficiency —
getting more from existing
sources of power — than

62
 new-generation technologies,
though some local
LIFE IN SMART SCRAMBLE
improvements in generating
and distributing wind and The beat-up six-seater plane in
geothermal energy do occur.
which Lidi was the lone
• Breakdowns in the global passenger lurched suddenly. She
medicine supply chain groaned, grabbed the armrests,
accelerate the emergence of
and held on as the plane dipped
locally bioengineered super-
sharply before finally settling into
strength homeopathic
remedies, which replace a smooth flight path. Lidi hated
antibiotics in the dispensaries small planes. But with very few
of many developing-world commercial jets crisscrossing
hospitals. Africa these days, she didn’t have
• Widespread micro- much choice. Lidi — an Eritrean
manufacturing, using 3D by birth — was a social
printers, enables the entrepreneur on a mission that she
fabrication of replacement deemed critical to the future of her
components for engines and home continent, and enduring
machines, allowing
these plane flights was an
“perpetual maintenance” to
unfortunate but necessary
Scenarios for the Future of Technology and International

compensate for broken trade

links. sacrifice. Working together with a
small team of technologists, Lidi’s
• Garden allotments proliferate
goal was to help the good ideas
in mega-cities as new urban-
dwellers seek to supplement a and innovations that were
scarce food supply and emerging across Africa to spread
maintain their agricultural faster — or, really, spread at all.
heritage.
Development

In this, Lidi had her work cut out

• Technically advanced for her. Accelerating and scaling
communities use mesh
the impact of local solutions
networks to ensure high-
speed internet access, but developed for very local markets
most rural poor remain cut off was far from easy — especially
from access. given the patchiness of internet
63
 Scenario Narratives SMART SCRAMBLE

access across Africa and the and talent: both were abundant.
myopic perspective that was now, The missing piece was finding a
in 2025, a widespread way to connect those dots. And
phenomenon. She used to worry that’s why she was back on this
about how to scale good ideas rickety plane again and heading to
from continent to continent; these Tunisia. She and her team were
days she’d consider it a great now concentrating on promoting
success to extend them 20 miles. mesh networks across Africa, so
And the creative redundancy was that places lacking internet access
shocking! Just last week, in Mali, could share nodes, get connected,
Lidi had spent time with a farmer and maybe even share and scale
whose co-op was developing a their best innovations.
drought-resistant cassava. They
were extremely proud of their
efforts, and for good reason. Lidi
didn’t have the heart to tell them
that, while their work was indeed
brilliant, it had already been done.
Several times, in several different
places.

During her many flights, Lidi had

spent hours looking out the
window, gazing down on the
villages and cities below. She
wished there were an easier way
to let the innovators in those
places know that they might not
be inventing, but rather
independently reinventing, tools,
goods, processes, and practices
that were already in use. What
Africa lacked wasn’t great ideas
64
Concluding
Thoughts
As you have seen, each of the scenarios, if it were to unfold,
would call for different strategies and have different
implications for how a range of organizations will work and
relate to changes in technology. But no matter what world
might emerge, there are real choices to be made about what
areas and goals to address and how to drive success toward

particular objectives. developed and deployed. In some

futures, the primacy of the nation-
state as a unit of analysis in
We hope that reading the scenario
development was questioned as
narratives and their

Scenarios for the Future of Technology and International

both supra- or sub-national
accompanying stories about
structures proved more salient to
philanthropy, technology, and
the achievement of development
people has sparked your
goals. In other futures, the nation-
imagination, provoking new
state’s power strengthened and it
thinking about these emergent
became an even more powerful
themes and their possibilities.
actor both to the benefit and to
Three key insights stood out to us

Development
the detriment of
as we developed these scenarios.
the development process, depending
First, the link between technology
on the quality of governance.
and governance is critical to
Technologies will affect
consider in better understanding
governance, and governance in turn
how technology could be
65
 will play a major role in ORDER TO WORK ON A
determining what technologies are THREE, FIVE, OR SEVEN
developed and who those
technologies are intended, and able, YEAR CYCLE.
to benefit. WHAT SCALE IS REQUIRED
A second recurring theme in the FOR DEPLOYMENT TO BE
scenarios is that development work SUCCESSFUL? WHAT LEVEL OF
will require different levels of EDUCATION IS NEEDED
intervention, possibly TO BE SUSTAINABLE IN TERMS
simultaneously. In some scenarios,
OF MAINTENANCE? HOW DO
philanthropic organizations and
other actors in development face a
THESE REQUIREMENTS
set of obstacles in working with
EVOLVE OVER TIME?
large institutions, but may face a yet- – Isha Ray, Professor, University of
unfolding set of opportunities to California-Berkeley School of
Information,
work with nontraditional partners —
Energy, and Resources Group
even individuals. The organization The third theme highlights the
that is able to navigate between these potential value of scenarios as one
levels and actors may be best critical element of strategy
positioned to drive success. development. These narratives
have served to kick-start the idea
Concluding Thoughts
generation process, build the
Scenarios for the Future of Technology and International

future-oriented mindset of
participants, and provide a guide
for ongoing trend monitoring
DEVELOPMENT-LED and horizon scanning

INTERVENTIONS ARE OFTEN activities. They also offer a

useful framework that can
NOT
help in tracking and making
Development

CAREFUL ENOUGH ABOUT

sense of early indicators and
WHAT milestones that might signal
THE TECHNOLOGY NEEDS IN the way in which the world is
actually transforming.

66
While these four scenarios vary which technologies are
significantly from one another, effectively adopted and adapted
one theme is common to them all: by poor people on a broad scale,
new innovations and uses of expectations about the provision
technology will be an active and of services could fundamentally
integral part of the international shift. Developing a deeper
development story going forward. understanding of the ways in
The changing nature of which technology can impact
technologies could shape the development will better prepare
characteristics of development everyone for the future, and help
and the kinds of development aid all of us drive it in new and
that are in demand. In a future in positive directions.

Appendix
CRITICAL UNCERTAINTIES
The following is a list of the 15 critical uncertainties presented to participants
during this project’s primary scenario creation workshop. These uncertainties
were themselves selected from a significantly longer list generated during earlier
phases of research and extensive interviewing. The uncertainties fall into three
categories: technological, social and environmental, and economic and political.

Scenarios for the Future of Technology and International

Each uncertainty is presented along with two polar endpoints, both representing a
very different direction in which that uncertainty might develop.

TECHNOLOGICAL UNCERTAINTIES
technologies with the most

new technologies  impact on development 

existing technologies

Development
origin of technology
both developed and
innovations critical to developed world and some

developing worlds  development

BRICs

slow the adoption allow for rapid adoption of

social and cultural norms  novel technologies
67
 of novel technologies 
new innovations that many
substantially reduce child and
few 
infant mortality (vaccines, 
treatments, cures)
SOCIAL & ENVIRONMENTAL
UNCERTA INTIES
community identity in the dynamic, open to the novel

static, traditional  developing world 

and nontraditional

educational and employment

restricted  opportunities for women 

expanding

occurrence of “shocks”
frequent and highly
infrequent and manageable  like disease, famine, and  disruptive
natural disasters
quality of the local
environment in the developing

poor and worsening  world (air, water, sanitation, improved and improving

built environment, etc.)

global climate change

de-prioritized  awareness and action 

prioritized

68
ECONOMIC & POLITICAL UNCERTAINTIES
global economic performance,
worse than expected  2010-2015 
improves significantly

rules and norms around

inhibiting  entrepreneurial activity 

supportive

education and training

static  opportunities in the increasing

developing world
marginal and contained  conflict in the developing world  pervasive and widespread
weak, with barriers to international economic and strong, with more
supranational cooperation
cooperation  
strategic relationships

worse and more prone to food security in disruptions the developing world better
and more secure

LIST OF PARTICIPANTS Evan Michelson, Senior Research Associate

This report is the result of extensive effort and Core Team

collaboration among Rockefeller Foundation
Karl Brown, Associate Director
Scenarios for the Future of Technology and International

initiative staff, Foundation grantees, and external

experts. The Rockefeller Foundation and GBN Robert Buckley, Managing
would like to extend special thanks to all of the
Director Lily Dorment, Research
individuals who contributed their thoughtfulness
and expertise throughout the scenario process. Associate
Their enthusiastic participation in interviews, Brinda Ganguly, Associate Director
workshops, and the ongoing iteration of the
Veronica Olazabal, Research Associate
Development

scenarios made this co-creative process more

stimulating and engaging that it could ever have Gary Toenniessen, Managing Director
been otherwise.
Thank you as well to all Foundation staff
52
who participated in the scenario creation
ROCKEFELLER FOUNDATION STAFF workshop in December.
Project Leads
A special thank you also to Laura Yousef.
Claudia Juech, Managing Director
ROCKEFELLER FOUNDATION Group), University of
GRANTEES California-Berkeley

G.K. Bhat, TARU Leading Edge, India Enrique Rueda-Sabater,

Director of Strategy and
Le Bach Duong, Institute for Social Business Development for
Development Studies, Vietnam Emerging Markets, Cisco
Aidan Eyakuze, Society for International Caroline Wagner, Senior
Development, Tanzania Analyst, SRI International
Michael Free, PATH, Seattle, WA and Research Scientist,
Center for International
Namrita Kapur, Root Capital, Boston, Science and Technology
MA Policy, The George
Washington University
Paul Kukubo, Kenya ICT Board, Kenya
GLOBAL BUSINESS NETWORK
Joseph Mureithi, Kenyan Agriculture
Research Andrew Blau, Co-President
Institute, Kenya
Tara Capsuto, Senior Practice Associate

EXTERNAL EXPERTS Lynn Carruthers, Visual Practitioner

Scenarios for the Future of Technology and International

Stewart Brand, Cofounder of GBN and Michael Costigan, Practitioner
President of the Long Now Foundation
Jenny Johnston, Senior Editor
Robert de Jongh, Managing Regional
Director, SNV Latin America Barbara Kibbe, Vice President of Client
Services, Monitor Institute
José Gomez-Marquez, Program Director
Brie Linkenhoker, Senior Practitioner
for the
Innovations in International Health

Development
Peter Schwartz, Chairman
initiative (IIH), Massachusetts Institute of
Technology

Natalie Jeremijenko, Experimental

Designer and
Director of xdesign Environmental Health
Clinic, New York University

Athar Osama, Visiting Fellow, Frederick

S. Pardee
Center for the Study of the Longer-Range
Future, Boston University

Isha Ray, Professor, School of

Information (Energy and Resources