© 2018 JETIR September 2018, Volume 5, Issue 9 www.jetir.
org (ISSN-2349-5162)
EXAMINING THE POST WAVES OF
DEMONITISATION ON INDIAN ECONOMY: A
CONCEPTUAL REVIEW
1
Dada Ab Rouf Bhat 2Maliha Batool 3Ishfaq Majeed Bhat
1
Research Scholar Department of Commerce University of Jammu, Jammu-180006, India.
2
Research Scholar Department of Economics University of Jammu.
3
Contractual lecturer directorate of school education, Kashmir.
Abstract: Demonetisation is an act where the old unit of currency gets retired and replaced with a new
currency unit. It can also be considered as withdrawal of a specific currency from the market. The aim of
this study is to find out the reasons and post impacts of demonetisation. Data were collected from the
secondary sources like various newspapers, journals and online database. The collected data was analysed
and interpreted to draw conclusions keeping in mind the set objectives of the study.The paper discusses
about the move of demonetisation taken by Central Government of India on 8th November, 2016 with
respect to its reasons and through’s light on the post effects of demonetisation on different sections and
sectors in India.Demonetisation creates effect on different sectors in different manners resulting into boom
for some sectors like E-Wallet businesses while resulting into temporary slowdown in other sectors like
micro businesses, vegetable vendors or some small seasonal businesses, where most of the transactions are
on cash basis.The demonetisation effects would be related to the extent to which the currency is not replaced
within the economy. If the entire currency is replaced, there would not be any major effects on the economy.
Keywords: Demonetisation, Currency, Central Government, Economy.
1. INTRODUCTION
Demonetisation is an action where the time-honored unit of currency gets abandoned and substituted with a
different currency unit. It can be considered as pulling out of a particular currency from the open market. In
other verses, it is a practice by which a sequence of currency will not be a legal tender i.e. series of currency
will not be tolerable as binding currency. It can be denoted as a weapon of government to eradicate the
currency in very adverse circumstances. Further, demonetisation is the apparatus by which the government
states to take away the money which is the existing permissible tender. The government being autonomous
can give such judgement. The end result of this declaration results in that the currency notes which were in
circulation will now cease to be accepted as valid tender and can only be substituted at the banks.This
reduction, in the form of wiping out cash balances from the economy, reduce a number of dealings for a
while, since there is no or not adequate of a medium of exchange remaining. This effect would be more
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severe on individuals whose earnings are totally in the form of cash and also spend it in cash. To a lesser
degree it will also have emotional impact on individuals who earn incomes in non-cash forms but need to
withdraw the cash for day to day consumption purposes, since a number of sectors in the economy still work
predominantly with cash.This is for the third time that the tool of demonetisation was used in India to tackle
many problems. The only difference between the three time decisions is the quantum however. The former
i.e., first and second demonetisation scrapped really high worth notes which formed a minor portion of notes
in movement making it considerably easy to withdraw. But this time the 500/- and 1000/- currency notes
represented 85% of physical money in circulation making it very tough and hard for the people to cope up
with the decision.
According to the Reserve Bank of India’s annual report for April 2015 to March 2016, the worth of the
currency notes at the completion of March 2016 stood at 16.42 trillion Indian rupees. The five-hundred
rupee and thousand rupee legal tender notes formed 86.4% of the value. By deploying one hit, the
government detached 86.4% of the currency in circulation by value. From the volume perspective, the
currency notes of these two denominations formed 24.4% of a total of 90.27 billion pieces. Further, RBI’s
statistics revealed that as of March 2016, 632,926 exchange notes were forged which are also termed as
FICN-Fake Indian Currency Note. The interesting thing was that the proportion Notes in circulation i.e., the
1,000 rupee and 500 rupee notes were the maximum. Hence the insufficiency of cash because of
demonetisation headed to chaos and most people holding old banknotes encountered difficulties exchanging
them due to long-standing lines outside banks and ATMs throughout India.
With the ban of Rs.500 and Rs.1000 currency and insertion of fresh notes, India is coping with
demonetisation. The measure isn’t new, however, several other countries had already tried itbut the results
were quite complex. Here is the mention of eight nations that tried demonetisation in the pastbefore India.
Table 1 shows the countries which previously banned the notes and their effects on economy.
Table No. 1 List of countries where demonetisation had been carried out earlier
Serial Country Year Effect on Economy Reason for failure
No. Successful/unsuccessful
1. Ghana 1982 Drove economy towards People support for black market and
weakness unsuccessful investment in physical assets.
2. Nigeria 1984 Distortion of economy Debt-ridden and inflation did not
unsuccessful take change well
3. Myanmar 1987 Unsuccessful Led to mass protest resulting in
killing of many people.
4. Soviet 1991 Unsuccessful People did not take change
Union positively due to poor harvest.
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5. Australia 1996 Moderate effect As the purpose was only to replace
paper with plastic.
6. North 2010 Weak unsuccessful People left with no food and shelter
Korea
7. Zimbabwe 2015 Weak unsuccessful Face value one hundred trillion
dollars dropped to $0.5 dollar.
8. India 2016 Loss of GDP by 2% Less time given to people
Increase in unemployment Cash based economy
Loss of Lives Non availability of banks in most of
the rural areas.
From the table 1 it becomes evident that the demonetisation experiments done in the above mentioned
countries has mostly failed. The experiments were seen as with a mix of wonder and worry.In the past,
countries such as Myanmar, Ghana, North Korea and Zimbabwe tried their luck with demonetisation, but it
brought forth troublesome results. Looking at the Indian side so far, Modi’s move has left masses
scrambling for cash, trouncing consumption and in this manner threatening GDP growth in India. The
conversion is already drawing criticism, with quite a lot of economists questioning the government’s
implementation of the policy and raising apprehensions regarding the absence of infrastructure for a
cashfree future in an almost completely cash-dependent nation.
However after the India’s move of demonetisation to counter black money and different other issues, it
seems like demonetisation is spreading around the world. Three countries in three continents like Australia,
Pakistan and Venezuela have also decided to demonetize their currencies in the soon period.
1.1 Countries that have proposed to demonetize their currency in the coming years
Australia
On 14 Dec. 2016, Australia’s financial services and revenue minister Kelly O’Dwyer said that the country is
looking over a move to ban its $100 notes, the uppermost denomination existing, as well as possiblylimiting
cash transactions over a certain limit. Australia, much like India, wants to holddown on the
secretiveeconomy.
According to UBS analysts “Removing large denomination notes in Australia would be good for the
economy and good for the banks”.
Pakistan
On 19,Dec. 2016,a resolution was passed in the Pakistan’s senate to phase out its Rs. 5,000 notes in an
endeavor to curb black money from the economy. It may be noted that in value expressions, Rs. 5,000 bills
account for approximately 30% of the currency in rotation in the country.
Pakistan’s government plans to employ this decision over the subsequent three to five years, as against the
India’s hastenedtactic of demonetisation. Osman Saifulla Khan, the senator who positioned forward the
motion, spell out that the government wasn’t in any approach following India’s ideology, stating that he
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remained the last person to be impressed by Modi, according to the Dawn newspaper. Similar to India,
Pakistan is on a process to combat tax dodging and the hoarding of illegitimate wealth.
Venezuela
On 11, Dec. 2016, Venezuela— of whom inflation rate is predictable to hit 475% -declared that it has
demonetised its most worthy note, the 100-bolivar bill. The government headed by Nicolás Maduro
provided citizens a 72-hour gapin advance of retreating the currency, which weighed for 77% of the state’s
cash in revolution. The government heldthat old notes will be substituted, at some point, by means of new
ones in denominations in the middle of 500 and 20,000 bolivars.
The South American country considers that cross-border mafia has been obtaining Venezuelan bolivars and
vending them for hugereturns in Colombia. Still, the government was impelled to offer citizens
astretchedextension for the usage of the 100 bolivar bill when a severe shortage of currency steered to
intense protests and looting.
2. Objectives of the Study
1. To identify the reasons that force the government to withdraw nations high denomination currency notes.
2. To investigate the impact of demonetisation on the economy as a whole.
3. Research Methodology
The facts were composed from secondarybasis of information. This research also tookthe support of
Secondary data like many newspapers, journals, online database, facts released by Reserve Bank of India
(RBI), Exchange, Central statistics office India and different bank websites. The collected data was analysed
and interpreted to pull out the conclusions keeping in mind the framed objectives of the study.
4. Reasons of Demonetisation
After reviewing a lot of literature we came across the following main reasons which prompted the nations to
demonetize their valuable existing currencies.
According to The Reserve Bank of India, the most important reason for the demonetisation of 500 and 1000
rupees note was the rise of fake currencies of the same notes, and also the higher occurrence of black money
in the economy. “The fake notes are being used for illegal activities by anti-nationalists like terrorists and
India being a nation of a cash-based economy, the circulation of fake currency continues to be a threat.
Black Money: A latest study had estimated India‘s black market economy at over Rs 30 lakh crore or
around 20 % of overall GDP. Interestingly the estimate is even higher than the GDP of nations like
Argentina and Thailand. So after the decision of demonetisation black money hoarders are left only with
just two choices – either channelize this cash through banks, stating it to be their income or burn the
secreted file.
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Terrorism & Counterfeit Currency: Terrorism is a worrisome thing. The main point lies here is about by
what means these radicals acquire their money. Adversaries from across the boundary are running their acts
expending fake currency notes. This has been there happening on for years. Such cases turn out to be the
reason for demonetisation.
Polling/Election: We are well aware about the fact that black money is used by political parties. With
demonetisation it becomes a very tough task to use trucks of money for the upcoming elections. For
example, in UP election in India which were held in January neither of the parties were able to purchase the
vote of poor people which resulted in drastic change in the elections.
Unorganised Trading:
- Prices upturn in Real estate segments is mostlyfor the reason of the inclusion of black money, but on the
other hand subsequently taking this decision the values of property will certainly come down to their
genuine value.
- Unorganised dealing in share market will also be eliminated after this decision and this will gain positive
result in the economic condition of the country.
- The problem of inflation will get curbed as a result of demonetisation because with this decision the
government will be able to get more and more money in its pocket in the form of taxes and unrevealed
income.
To promote cashless economy: It is not conceivable to make a state a cash-less economy by customary
means. It is by demonetisation that people are compelled to deposit their cash in banks and at the same time
it also becomes very tough for the people to get their money back in cash terms, which ultimately forces the
people to make use of cashless sources to make payments like e-Payment and use of plastic currency.
Cashless economy also guides the economy towards transparency.
To combat corruption: By demonetisation a lesser amount of cash remains available in the economy which
eventuallycondenses the probabilities of corruption. It is an old saying that where there is no cash there is no
corruption.
To strengthen the banking system: By demonetisation the banking system of the country getsreinforced, as
banks are flooded with enormous amount of currency. This will also result in further economic development
in the country as the money will be channelised properly through banks.
5. Impact of Demonetisation on varied Sections and Sectors
The announcement of demonetisation was in continuation of a sequence of measures engaged by the
Government of India in last two years for eliminating bribery, black money, forged currency and terror
finance. The judgement was steered by the goal of securing its huge potential medium-term interests by way
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of condensing corruption, better digitisation of the economy, enlarged flow of financial savings and greater
formalisation of the economy. All of these were aimed at giving greater GDP growth and tax proceeds that
could be used by the Government for inclusive and durable economic development, besides contributing to
overall improvement in business environment. But the decision yielded complex results. From one side it
has created some positive impacts but on the other side it has also generated some negative impacts in the
short run.
Demonetisation by taking out 86 per cent of the money in circulation, has led to a very severe reduction in
cash supply in the economy. This reduction, by pulling out cash hoardings in the economy, reduced a
numeral amount of dealings for a while, as there was certainly not sufficient of a medium of exchange
accessible. It is so, because Rs500 and Rs1000 notes amounted to 86% of the aggregate currency in
movement in India, particularly in the vast rural zones. One economist associated the pain to what people
might experience if 86% of their blood was removed from their bodies.This effect was found to be extra
severe on persons who make earnings in cash and expend it in cash. To a slighter degree it also affected
individuals who receive earnings in non-cash forms but then again require to withdraw in cash for
consumption purposes. The effects were allied to the level to which the currency was not substituted within
the economy. If whole the notes had been replaced, there would not had been any severe effects on the
economy. Demonetisation caused impact on diverse sectors in different manners ensuring boom for some
segments like e-wallet businesses and somewhere causing short-term slowdown in micro businesses like
vegetable hawkers or some minor seasonal businesses, where utmost of the dealings are on cash basis.
Various sectors have been chosen for the research which revealed the following most important impacts of
demonetisation.
Cash on delivery facility momentarily stopped by online retail suppliers: Popular online retail stores in
India like Flipkart, Amazon, Snapdeal and other online retailers provisionallysuspended providing cash on
delivery facilities. According to a research firm namely Redseer Management, nearly 70% of the online
orders are still paid in cash. When such a step was taken, it halted the volume of business since cash on
delivery is the popular method of payment for shoppers in India. Further Flipkart Ltd, Snapdeal and
Shopclues have put a restraint on the maximum value of cash-on delivery transactions. There existeda lot of
orders which stood in the chain to be delivered and for which method of payment was cash on delivery.
Slowdown in disbursement rate of Microfinance Institutes: Micro finance institutions (MFIs) are vital
institutions which deliver financial help to micro businesses. The same MFIs have saw their distribution rate
lessening after the government’s decision of currency demonetisation. The MFIs had also acknowledged
that the move had also resulted in a delay in collection of instalments from the clients which ultimately
impact on unavailability of cash and thus hampers cash disbursement.
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Effect on small and microbusinesses: Indian Micro Small and Medium Enterprises (MSME) sector
contributes considerable share in India’s GDP. In Small and Micro businesses transactions usually take
place on cash basis especially micro businesses. They face lot of difficulties due to the decision as most of
thepeople running the business are not that educated and tech savvy. So such move obstructs micro
businesses in a ruthlesswaybringing about slowdown in micro and small sector.
E-wallet firms gain upright business: A digital wallet is an application in smart phone or any electronic
device which permits a person to make transactions like payment of bills, online bookings and shopping
electronically. In the periods of demonetisation wallet businesses are the major beneficiaries of the decision.
Further such wallets get boost in trade as no other means are left to pay due to non-availability of cash.
Paytm, PayU India, MobiKwik, and Freecharge are the examples of wallet in India.
Automobile sector: Restriction on cash dealings and provisional cash crisis hurt buying, particularly in the
case of two wheelers where the percentage of cash dealings stood high. Further due to momentary liquidity
crunch the seasonal slowdown was seen in the demand of passenger vehicles and commercial vehicles
during the initial months of the decision in response of the laxity in the economy on account of
demonetisation.
Impact on GDP: The GDP creation gets crushed by this measure, with decrease in the consumption.As per
the government's recent development estimates, the speed of growth was obstructed by decelerating growth
in the manufacturing and mining sectors and also construction sector. All this resulted in the overall
downfall of GDP by 2%.
Impact on Agriculture Sector: Agricultural growth in India was already slight for the reason that it was
continuously hit by droughts. It was expected to grow at 4% in 2016 as per CRISIL report, but unfortunately
owing to demonetisation this prediction proved incorrect because farmers ran out of money to get seeds,
fertilizer, tools, and wage payment to labor force etc. Further due to cash deficiency day-to-day supply
transport system suffered as well, which brought around 25 to 50 % decline in sales.
Impact of Demonetisation on Business sector: Small as well as big businesses both in urban as well as rural
areas feel the impact as these are generally run via cash transactions and big businesses also require to pay
to their laboures in cash.Companies using cash transaction will here and now have to depend onfinance
from alternative sources. It also increased labour turnover owing to lack of Production. For example,
Textile industry:-
The industry also remains among worst sufferers. Maximum of the businesses report nearly 60 % drop in
deals after demonetisation. But after some time this sector slightly recovers as the cash is channeled in the
form of new currencies in the economy.
Real Estate:-
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Demonetisation crashed the real estate business and it bring about 50% drop down in the business.
FMCG Products:-
Consumer expendituresare also impacted by the decision of demonetisation. The demand for only those
products persist which areneeded for day-to-day consumption due to less or no cash in the pockets of the
consumers. Further the per diem sells of these sellers drop down by 20 to 30 %.
Impact on Service Sector: Service sector was smashed very stiff by demonetisation after November 2016.
Most horrible Collapse in just about three years existed. The services segment slided into contraction
territory for the first time since June 2015 and jagged to the piercing drop in yield for almost three years.
The only sector which experienced boom in trading on other hand is the banking sector. This remained the
lone sector which was profited by that pronouncement in numerous facets.
Impact on parallel economy: The removal of the currency and replacement of the same with new notes is
anticipated to get rid of black money from the state as they will be obstructed and in the meantime the
holders will not be in a position to deposit the same in the banks. Further for the time being the decision
halts the movement of huge size of counterfeit currency and also stops the funding of anti-social elements
for smuggling, terrorism, undercover activities.
Effect on Money Supply: With older currency being scuffled, until the new notes get widely disseminated
in the economy, thecurrency supply come to be condensed in the short run. Further, the limit put on
withdrawal of money e.g. a limit of Rs.2000 per day per card was set by the Govt. of India and subsequently
the limit was increased also lead to the decrease of money supply in the economy . However step by step as
the new currency gets disseminated in the market, the disparity gets adjusted.
Influence on Demand: The overall demand generally gets affected severely. The demand in following areas
like consumer goods, real estate and property, gold and luxury goods, workshops are affected harshly.
Altogether these cited segments are expected to face definite restraint in demand from the consumer side,
due to the substantial volume of cash transactions involved in these sectors.
Effect on Prices: Price level is let downdue to control from demand side. Consumer goods prices fall with
immediate effect in absence of proper system of cashless facility. Further real estate and property are mostly
projected to reduce due to demonetisation, particularly for trades of properties where mainportion of the
deal is cash centered.
Impact on numerous economic entities: With cash dealings lowering in the short run, until the fresh notes
are spread widely into circulation, certain sections of the society like small traders, vegetable hawkers,
shopkeepers, cobblers, households, retail outlets, carpenters, etc, experience short term disorders in enabling
of their dealings. The rate, occurrence and volumes of the commercial businesses involved with these
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demand cash on more recurrent basis. Thus, due to demonetisation they face the most significant impression
until the normalcy of the economy.
Impact on Banks: As instructed by the System, the certain currency notes become priceless or cease to be
legitimate and are required to be deposited in banks to make them valuable. This will spontaneously bring
rise in the flow of money towards Savings and Current Account of commercial banks and ultimately the
liquidity position of the banks will get enhanced, which can then be used by banks for lending purposes.
Effect on Online Dealings and alternative modes of payment: Unusual methods of payment saw a rush in
demand when cash dealings faced decline. Digital methods, e-wallets and applications, online e-banking,
usage of debit and credit cards, etc. experienced a positive and significant upsurge in demand. This also
made the people habitual of using cashless methods and thus drive economy towards cashless and digital
economy.
Loss of lives: Due to long lines to withdraw cash from banks and ATMs numerous people were reported to
have had heart attacks while standing therein for a long period. Demonetisation claimed the lives of more
than 100 people. Life headed to stand still and considerable sadness gave rise to when people find
themselves powerless to use their own hard-earned money. The grief it has triggered to millions of Indians
is unjustified.
6. Conclusion
Demonetisation is an exercise by means of which a series of notes will stop to be a legal tender i.e. currency
in circulation will not be acceptable as functional currency. It is the mechanism by means of which the
government states to pull out the money which is presently circulating in the economy as legal tender. The
current study was carried out to find out the pattern of demonetisation in different countries as well as to
find out the possible reasons of taking such decision and its outcomes. The study was carried out by
reviewing a lots of literature available on demonetization. It revealed that demonetisation is having both the
positive (in the long run) as well as negative impacts on the economy.With cash dealings facing a decline,
substitute methods of payment experience a bulge in demand. Digital transactions method, e-wallets and
applications, e-banking, application of plastic money etc. grasped a considerable upsurge in demand. This
eventually led to strengthening of cashless systems in the country and the infrastructure required also gets
maintained and well organized. Further it lowers the corruption practices and will discourage the black
money holders for a long period. For the time being the decision halts the movement of huge size of
counterfeit currency and also stops the funding of anti-social elements for smuggling, terrorism, undercover
activities. From the other side, the decision of demonetisation affected some sections adversely. It directly
affects the individuals who receive earnings in non-cash forms but then again require to withdraw in cash
for consumption purposes e.g., vegetable hawkers or some minor seasonal businesses who make earnings in
cash and expend it in cash.Talking about the sectors in the economy, the sectors to be undesirably affected
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are those where demand is commonly funded in money terms, specifically those not within the organised
vending. For instance, transport services, kirana, fruits and vegetables and all other perishables, would face
compression in demand which is assisted by purchasing power. In conclusion it can be stated that if
demonetisation is backed by a proper planning and due care has been taken to set up the infrastructure
facilities to support cashless system then it will lead to a legitimate and corruption free economy but if the
decision is sudden i.e., without any proper planning it could lead to a severe pain for the individuals living
in the economy and will ultimately have adverse income and employment consequences for the economy.
7. Limitations and Future Research:
The study was conducted to get the conceptual outline of demonetisation and to find out the reasons which
force the nations to deploy the weapon of demonetisation. Although all the efforts were made to make this
research objective but yet some limitations were there to limit the scope of this study. The limitation of this
study is that it relied only on secondary sources of data for research enquiry and is conceptual in nature.
Future studies could take empirical studies into consideration.
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