Tactical Equity Derivatives Strategy
Tactical Equity Derivatives Strategy
Derivatives Strategy
                                                                                                                            23 June 2021
                 Buy Best Buy Co Bear Risk Reversals: Conversely, J.P. Morgan retail analyst
                  Chris Horvers sees BBY (Neutral, $118 Dec-21 price target) as a stock that
                  could see tailwinds from COVID-19, but yet to prove its ability to sustain its
                  COVID-acquired wallet share, in addition to potentially pulling-forward top line
                  benefits such as back-to-school and holiday sales. Despite the tailwinds from
                  COVID-19 creating a favorable macro backdrop for the company, the stock has
                  been unable to hold gains above the $120 level, failing eight times over the last
                  year (Fig. 1), and is now facing wallet normalization. With the potential for
                  consumer spending on “nesting” (e.g., TV’s/appliances, WFH equipment) likely
                  to dissipate in exchange for consumption in reopening/return to travel/apparel,
                  BBY shares are likely now swimming against the current. We recommend
                  investors purchase BBY August 120c/100p bear risk reversals (i.e., selling
                  the call to finance the purchase of the put), collecting $0.36, indicatively
                  ($111.04 reference price), taking advantage of the stock’s flat volatility
                  skew. Current 2M implied volatility skew (90-110%) is flat, ranking in its 11th
                  %-ile over the last 5-years. If at expiration shares close at/above the call strike,
                  investors will be short stock at $120.36, up 8.4% from the reference price, and
                  above our year-end price target.
                 Figure 1: BBY has failed to break above the $120 level as a COVID-19 recovery stock and now faces wallet normalization
                             130
125
120
                             115
                     Price
110
105
100
                              95
                               Jun-20                     Sep-20                     Dec-20           Mar-21           Jun-21
Source: J.P. Morgan Quantitative and Derivatives Strategy, Bloomberg Finance L.P.
This document is being provided for the exclusive use of CHRISTOPHER Olson at JPMorgan Chase & Co. and clients of J.P. Morgan.
          Shawn P Quigg                                Global Quantitative & Derivatives Strategy
          (1-212) 622-7063                             23 June 2021
          shawn.p.quigg@jpmorgan.com
This document is being provided for the exclusive use of CHRISTOPHER Olson at JPMorgan Chase & Co. and clients of J.P. Morgan.
          Shawn P Quigg                               Global Quantitative & Derivatives Strategy
          (1-212) 622-7063                            23 June 2021
          shawn.p.quigg@jpmorgan.com
         Companies Discussed in This Report (all prices in this report as of market close on 22 June 2021)
         Best Buy(BBY/$111.04/N), Target Corporation(TGT/$237.21/OW)
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This document is being provided for the exclusive use of CHRISTOPHER Olson at JPMorgan Chase & Co. and clients of J.P. Morgan.
          Shawn P Quigg                                                  Global Quantitative & Derivatives Strategy
          (1-212) 622-7063                                               23 June 2021
          shawn.p.quigg@jpmorgan.com
           Best Buy (BBY, BBY US) Price Chart                                                                                                         Date        Rating Price ($)   Price Target
                                                                                                                                                                                     ($)
                                                                                                                                                      28-Aug-18 N         81.66      79
                                                                               N $90                     N $105                    N $117             20-Nov-18 N         62.20      75
                     192
                                                                                                                                                      29-Aug-19 N         69.00      71
                                         N $75                                 N $77                N $83                 N $124        N $118        25-Nov-19 N         72.64      77
                     160
                                                                                                                                                      26-Nov-19 N         74.25      90
                                N $79                                 N $71                         N $85             N $115       N $113
                     128                                                                                                                              18-May-20 N         78.61      85
          Price($)
                                                                                                                                                      22-May-20 N         77.98      83
                     96                                                                                                                               22-Jul-20   N       90.28      105
                                                                                                                                                      18-Nov-20 N         119.02     115
                     64                                                                                                                               24-Nov-20 N         122.04     124
                                                                                                                                                      23-Feb-21 N         116.73     117
                     32                                                                                                                               25-Feb-21 N         113.46     113
                                                                                                                                                      26-May-21 N         114.42     118
                      0
                          Jun      Sep      Dec      Mar       Jun       Sep       Dec        Mar       Jun         Sep      Dec      Mar       Jun
                           18       18      18       19         19        19       19         20         20          20       20      21         21
           Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. and J.P. Morgan; price data adjusted for stock splits and dividends.
           Initiated coverage Jul 02, 2002. All share prices are as of market close on the previous business day.
         The chart(s) show J.P. Morgan's continuing coverage of the stocks; the current analysts may or may not have covered it over the entire
         period.
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This document is being provided for the exclusive use of CHRISTOPHER Olson at JPMorgan Chase & Co. and clients of J.P. Morgan.
          Shawn P Quigg                                   Global Quantitative & Derivatives Strategy
          (1-212) 622-7063                                23 June 2021
          shawn.p.quigg@jpmorgan.com
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          Shawn P Quigg                              Global Quantitative & Derivatives Strategy
          (1-212) 622-7063                           23 June 2021
          shawn.p.quigg@jpmorgan.com
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          Shawn P Quigg                              Global Quantitative & Derivatives Strategy
          (1-212) 622-7063                           23 June 2021
          shawn.p.quigg@jpmorgan.com
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          Shawn P Quigg                                    Global Quantitative & Derivatives Strategy
          (1-212) 622-7063                                 23 June 2021
          shawn.p.quigg@jpmorgan.com
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      Completed    23 Jun 2021 12:52 AM EDT                                                                      Disseminated 23 Jun 2021 12:53 AM EDT
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