Autumn Randall

Professor Hellmers

ENG 1201-503

5 July 2021

How is Climate Change Affecting Thunderstorms that Cause Tornadoes?

Over the past few years, we have been noticing the impacts of climate change on

the world's weather. There have been studies conducted on different types of natural

disasters including hurricanes, flash floods, and tornadoes. With an increase of severe

thunderstorms and destructive tornadoes I want to know how climate change is

affecting thunderstorms that cause tornadoes.

There are a few key components that cause unstable conditions for tornadoes. One

of the four variables consist of the different types of instabilities which include

convective potential energy, lifted index, total-totals, and many more. A second variable

would be the change of wind speed or direction with height. Another ingredient would

be the moisture levels in the area. The last key component would be the triggering

lifting mechanism which happens when the original storm forms (Lee 12-13). All these

conditions along with a steady upward push of warm, low-pressure air form a

mesocyclone which intensifies, ultimately producing a tornado which is shown in the

diagram Destructive Vortex that shows the formation of tornadoes from supercell

storms.
 In order to collect all the data needed to determine whether or not tornadoes are

affected by climate change there still needs to be years of research. This is because of

many factors which make predicting the future of tornadoes and climate change

unreliable. Berwyn, a reporter for Inside Climate News, who studies climate change

and climate policy, writes about many scientists pointing out that it’s hard to gather

reliable evidence due to the variability of tornadoes. The secular trends shown in the

data are one of the major reasons why there still needs more research and the data is

so unreliable. Before Doppler radar was used, weak tornadoes were only reported by

anyone who had seen the tornado or experienced damage. This is causing a lot of

problems because most weak tornadoes often went unreported. More research needs

to be done before there is definite evidence that proves there is an increase in

tornadoes (Lee 10-11).

It has not been proved that climate change is causing an increase in tornadoes.

However, it has been shown that the region in which most tornadoes occur is moving

due to climate change (Akpan). While the data issue is not allowing scientists to have

reliable evidence that climate change is causing more frequent and destructive

tornadoes, it shows that the atmosphere is starting to become more favorable to severe

thunderstorms and tornadoes. Berwyn cites climate researcher Michael Mann stating

that “a warming atmosphere, with more moisture and turbulent energy, favors

increasingly large outbreaks of tornadoes.” In Lee’s thesis paper about atmospheric

circulation and climate change, he explains that considering moisture, air circulation,

atmospheric pressure, and storm tracks, will most likely help scientists find out if there is

a relationship between tornadoes and climate change.

 Whether or not climate change is affecting tornadoes, it is a very controversial topic

among scientists. In Michael Molloy’s scholarly article, he states the opposing

viewpoints of scholars. The article states, “The current scholarly literature suggests that

there is a relationship between tornado frequency and global climate change. However,

not all scholars agree with the assertion that there is a relationship between tornadoes

and climate change” (Molloy 103). Research done by Molloy also shows that there are

fluctuating amounts of tornadoes occurring from 1950-2016 (107). One thing scientists

can agree on is that there are patterns in severe storms and tornadoes that show that

the hotspot for severe weather is moving to the East and the temperature of the oceans

are changing. There has been consistent research that proves “we might be seeing an

eastward shift in the regions of tornado genesis” (Berwyn). In addition to this, over the

past few years the ocean temperature has greatly increased causing more moisture in

the air, ultimately leading to an earlier tornado season in the South (Akpan).

While climate change specialists cannot find specific evidence that states there is

an increase of tornadoes because of climate change, they are noticing patterns about

where the tornadoes are going. Tornado Alley is currently in central United States, but

research has shown it is moving eastward. This is concerning because the east coast

is heavily populated compared to central United States. However, even through climate

change the central U.S. will always be a hotspot for tornadoes because that is where

the cold air, dry air, and warm moisture all meet together. It could be argued that due to

climate change severe weather could move to the north or south. Others could argue

that “a warmer world may experience a reduction in the equator to pole temperature

contrast” causing the number of severe thunderstorms and tornadoes to decrease.

 Another topic that remains inconsistent about tornadoes is if there is an increase,

decrease, or if the amount of tornadoes stay the same. Akpan, a digital science

producer, explains that the South has not seen in change in the frequency of tornadoes.

There is research that shows that there is an increase in the amount of tornado

outbreaks (Akpan). It is shown that there is no evidence that the intensity of tornadoes

will change, but there are more tornadoes that happen in a day now than there were a

couple years ago (Berwyn). Other articles, such as Molloy’s, state that it is not definite

that there is a relationship between regional climate change and the frequency of

tornadoes.

I can answer my research question by saying that there still needs to be a lot of

research done in order to find the effects of climate change on tornadoes. However,

research can support that it is affecting the atmospheric temperatures, moisture in the

air, and the movement of Tornado Alley. Before completing my essay, I need to do

more research on how climate change is affecting Tornado Alley. I would also like to

look into more sources that give statistics about climate change affecting tornadoes

because there were only a few in the sources I have.

 Works Cited

Akpan, Nsikan. “Is climate change making U.S. tornadoes worse?” PBS. 5 Mar. 2019,

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/science/is-climate-change-making-u-s-tornadoes-

worse. Accessed 28 June 2021.

"Destructive Vortex." Tribune Content Agency Graphics, 2021. Gale In Context:

Opposing Viewpoints, link.gale.com/apps/doc/XMZZQC518450618/OVIC?

u=dayt30401&sid=bookmark-OVIC&xid=6000fb63. Accessed 28 June 2021.

Berwyn, Bob. “Is Climate Change Fueling Tornadoes?” Inside Climate News, David

Sassoon and Stacy Feldman, 30 May 2019,

https://insideclimatenews.org/news/30052019/tornado-climate-change-

connection-science-research-data/. Accessed 28 June 2021.

Lee, Cameron. The Relationship of Large-Scale Atmospheric Circulation Patterns to

Tornadoes and the Impacts of Climate Change. Kent State University, Aug.

2010. EBSCOhost, http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?

acc_num=kent1274371690. Accessed 28 June 2021.

Molloy, Michael, and Paul, Bimal. “Analyzing Tornadic Frequency and Regional Climate

Change Relationships in Kansas, 1950-2016.” EBSCOhost, vol. 59, no. 2, 2018,

pp. 103-115. Academic Search Complete, https://eds-b-ebscohost-

com.sinclair.ohionet.org/eds/pdfviewer/pdfviewer?vid=5&sid=577e0a46-1566-

4086-9595-60e84b4d3122%40sdc-v-sessmgr01. Accessed 28 June 2021.