VIETNAM NATIONAL UNIVERSITY, HANOI
UNIVERSITY OF ECONOMIC & BUSINESS
END OF COURSE ESSAY
MACROECONOMICS
THE ECONOMIC CRISIS OF 2007 - 2009 IN VIETNAM
AND THE POLICIES THAT GOVERNMENT HAS
INTRODUCED TO SOLVE THIS PROBLEM
Instructor: ThS. Nguyễn Đức Bảo
Student: Trần Minh Hiếu
Student code: 19050089
Class: QH2019E Kinh tế CLC 2
Hà Nội, 2021
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
I. DESCRIPTION 1
II. ORIGINATION 1
1. Production 3
2. Consumption 4
3. Trade 4
IV. GOVERNMENT POLICIES 8
V. THE CHALLENGES AND SHORTCOMINGS THE GOVERNMENT HAD TO
FACE WITH WHEN CONDUCTING THOSE POLICES 12
VI. EFFECTIVENESS OF POLICIES 14
REFERENCES DOCUMENT 16
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I. DESCRIPTION
Although it is not an external factor that has a permanent influence or is not a decisive
factor, the explosive economic crises on the world scale always have certain impacts on the
economy of the member states. it. The financial crisis, the global economic crisis, affects
most economies. Events affect economies differently, depending on their integration with
the global economy. In the last months of 2008, the epidemic came from a powerful
economic country like the US, the epidemic spread quickly, very dangerously, and so it
spread around the world. Impacted by global thinking, upside down and affecting countries,
it is still the financial and banking system of each country. In Vietnam, manufacturing most
of the activities for export face many difficulties. In which, large schools such as the US,
EU, and Japan, which are media schools that import goods from Vietnam, are in crisis,
causing people's living standards to be turned upside down. , austerity, reduced purchase
levels, weak demand for payment… Vietnam is one of the systems that is heavily affected
in commodity export activities.
In this article, I assess the impact of the crisis on the Vietnamese economy through
direct investment, indirect investment, remittances, foreign trade; assess Vietnam's policy
responses to mitigate the impact and provide suggestions for handling in an increasingly
volatile world economy.
II. ORIGINATION
The current global financial crisis spreads from the US financial crisis, stemming from
the policy of subprime credit (also known as high-risk mortgage credit for the real estate
market), implementation of the loose monetary policy, the "cheap dollar" maintained for a
long time by the US government, while lacking the government's strict supervision
mechanism, has led to the formation of a financial "super bubble". main and real estate.
The development of many new financial services and products in the banking and
finance sector, transforming loans into investment instruments, making the credit market
for the real estate market a playground. for many domestic and foreign investors.
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It was the bankruptcy of corporations like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and big banks
like Lehman Brothers (the 5th largest US investment bank), City Bank Group that led to
the chain reaction of collapse. Nearly 1,200 US banks have applied for subsidies from the
Government Assistance Program to avoid falling into a crisis. In the first 2 months of 2009
alone, 16 US banks were dissolved. According to the report on the state of the US banking
industry by the US Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) dated February 26, 2009,
the number of US banks facing the possibility of dissolution as of the fourth quarter of 2008
has increased. to the highest level in the past 15 years, including 252 banks, an increase of
nearly 1.5 times compared to the number of 171 banks in the list published at the end of the
third quarter of 2008. This is the highest number of US banks on the brink of failure since
1995, accounting for about 3% of the approximately 8,500 banks and savings institutions
that the FDIC is insuring.
The difficult situation and breakdown in the financial - banking sector has spread to
production and business industries such as the automobile industry, construction... The US
economy fell into a recession at a fast pace, with economic growth. Q3 2008 was at - 0.3%,
Q4 2008 was at - 6.2%. Consumer spending, which accounts for two-thirds of U.S.
economic growth, fell the most since 1980. The federal budget deficit in fiscal 2008 surged
to a record 454. 0.8 billion USD, three times higher than the deficit of 161.5 billion USD
in fiscal 2007. According to the forecast of the US Congressional Budget Office (CBO),
the US Federal budget for the 2008-2009 fiscal year. will have a deficit of 1.2 trillion USD,
equivalent to 8.3% of US GDP.
The financial and banking management institutional crisis is the main feature of the
global financial crisis in the years 2008-2009. Therefore, the establishment of new financial
management institutions and overcoming the consequences will still take place. out long
and very difficult. To date, countries have not been able to solve the situation by themselves
with single measures, but are having to act in concert and take urgent and powerful
measures. Many countries have set up Crisis Committees or Working Groups and put in
place emergency plans with unprecedented amounts of money and measures as the global
financial crisis continues to take its toll. serious. The countries' economic stimulus and anti-
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crisis plans focus on supporting sectors and regions that are vulnerable to financial crises,
preventing economic recession, ensuring social security and ensuring social security. create
a basis for sustainable development.
III. THE IMPACT OF THE ECONOMIC CRISIS ON
ECONOMIC ACTIVITIES IN VIETNAM
In the last months of 2008, the epidemic came from a powerful economic country like
the United States, the epidemic spread quickly, very dangerously, and spread all over the
world. Impacted by the global recession, it has turned upside down and affected countries,
most clearly the financial and banking systems of each country. In Vietnam, most
production activities for export face many difficulties. In which, major markets such as the
US, EU, and Japan, which are traditional markets for importing manufactured goods from
Vietnam, are in crisis, because people's living standards are turned upside down, requiring
people to cut back. spending, belt tightening, low purchasing power, weak demand for
payment… Vietnam is one of the countries that are heavily affected in the export of goods.
1. Production
The impact of the world crisis makes Vietnam's small and medium enterprises face
many difficulties.
• Contract denied, production stalled.
• Products are sold slowly, inventories are increasing.
• Under the influence of tight monetary policy, limiting the growth of bank credit High
lending interest rate far exceeds the business ability of enterprises (borrowing interest rates
are constantly being raised and lending rates are also increasing). increased from 14% per
year (in 2007) and increased by 20% and 24% per year (in 2010).
Although the state bank has set a ceiling interest rate, they have not achieved results
because commercial banks have not implemented it thoroughly. Bank bad debt is increasing
day by day.
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=> From the above reasons, it is difficult, even harder, and the number of businesses
that voluntarily closed, declared bankruptcy increased by 21.8% compared to 2010 and
workers were the victims. In fact, unemployment is increasing day by day. Retail sales and
service consumption in 2011 only increased by 4%, the lowest growth rate ever
2. Consumption
Demand decreased in both production and consumption. In the context of the world
economic downturn, Vietnam's macroeconomic situation, although improved, is still in
general difficult. Many businesses have cut production and business plans, downsized due
to increased production costs, especially bank loans.
In 2008, banks raised interest rates to serve the target of tightening monetary policy
and curbing inflation. It was very difficult for businesses to borrow from banks with high
interest rates.
Entering 2009 with the loosening monetary policy, the bank interest rate has decreased
significantly, the Government has a policy of compensating 4% interest rate for businesses
for short-term loans, which has partly helped businesses businesses restore production and
business to reduce capital costs and product costs. However, the current big difficulty for
businesses is the product consumption market. As long as the world economy has not
recovered, the consumption (export) market will still face difficulties. Meanwhile, the
domestic market's demand is limited because the purchasing power is not commensurate.
Service activities will be narrowed, especially the number of tourists will decrease, so
far the tourism industry has organized many promotions but the general situation is not
bright.
3. Trade
• Banking and financial system
Although not yet strongly affected by the US financial crisis because Vietnam's
banking and financial system is only in the early stages of integration; but in the short term,
due to the direct impact of the financial crisis, the profits of many banks may decrease, even
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some small banks may suffer losses; bad debt increased; Therefore, Vietnam's banking and
financial system is at risk of being affected in a few years.
• Export
The growth rate of exports to the US market decreased because consumer demand in
the US market was on a "sloping" momentum, on the other hand, the competition in
exporting to the US market was more fierce because some exporters reduced prices of
goods. exports to consume the backlog of exported goods. The US is Vietnam's major
export market today, accounting for about 20-21% of export turnover, the decline in export
growth to the US market will affect the overall export growth rate of Vietnam. in 2008,
2009 and 2010 (if the US economy has not shown signs of recovery).
However, the degree of impact depends on the nature of each item. Besides, the US
financial crisis also negatively affected many other economies in the world, especially the
EU and Japan - two important export markets of Vietnam. Due to the impact of the crisis,
people in these markets also have to cut their spending, accordingly, the import demand for
Vietnam's export goods will tend to decrease. In the fourth quarter of 2008, import and
export turnover in these two markets decreased compared to the previous month. Import-
export turnover in the first quarter of 2009 tended to increase slightly. Export turnover in
2009 is forecasted to increase only 3-5%.
• Foreign investment capital (direct and indirect)
With the current crisis situation, the cost of capital becomes more expensive and the
export market is likely to shrink, so the decrease in capital flows to Vietnam is inevitable.
In addition, with most investment projects in general and FDI in particular, the loan portion
usually accounts for a large proportion of the total investment capital, so when financial
institutions and banks face difficulties, many loan contract will not be signed or disbursed.
With ongoing FDI projects may be slowed down because investors have to rebalance capital
sources and ensure financial safety during this crisis. Newly licensed FDI projects will face
difficulties if investors are greatly hurt from the crisis. If in 2008 Vietnam attracted nearly
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63 billion USD of foreign direct investment (registered capital), disbursed 12 billion USD,
in 2009, the situation of attracting FDI has become more difficult, many projects registered
capital tens of billions of dollars foreign investors have asked to withdraw... In the first 5
months of 2009, FDI capital reached only 6.3 billion USD.
As for the amount of remittances to Vietnam, although in 2008 the amount of
remittances reached 8 billion USD, increased by 60% compared to 2007, but with the
current global economic recession, the decrease in the amount of remittances in 2009 will
be the sure.
• Stock Market
The financial crisis is increasingly affecting the world financial market, whereby
investors and foreign investment funds will have more difficulty in raising capital, or tend
to be more cautious in their decisions. investment decisions when their major markets are
struggling. Their restructuring of their investment portfolio in Vietnam is foreseeable.
It is possible that foreign investors will withdraw capital from the Vietnamese market
to rescue the parent company in major markets, but this possibility is very small, on the one
hand because of the amount of investment capital of each investor in the Vietnamese
market. Vietnam market is not many and currently Vietnam is still considered a safe
investment location with high reliability. Vietnam's stock market is a place with investment
advantages when Vietnam's macroeconomic situation is tending to get better.
In case foreign investors sell all securities and withdraw all investment capital from
Vietnam's stock market, Vietnam will still have enough foreign currency reserves to "pump
out" to stabilize the market. Vietnam's trade balance in 2008 is forecasted to have a deficit
of 18 billion USD (about 30% of GDP) in 2009 it is forecasted that the trade deficit will
fluctuate in the range of 12 billion -15 billion USD or 12-15% of GDP, down 20%
compared to 2008.
On the other hand, it should be noted that the financial crisis affects a number of
sectors of Vietnam such as exports, short-term loans of banks, activities of financial and
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credit institutions, etc. Therefore, businesses Enterprises listed on the stock market will
inevitably have negative impacts, especially export enterprises, whereby stock prices may
decline.
Some other issues that need to be concerned are that the financial crisis had a strong
impact on the psychology of Vietnamese securities investors. The stock market was
immediately adversely affected because of concerns of domestic investors. The
psychological factor is quite important, so Vietnam needs solutions, especially adequate
information and propaganda to strengthen investors' confidence; Limiting excessive
concerns that adversely affect the stock market. Recently, the stock market has shown more
positive signs, but with the unpredictable movements of the world economic recession, the
stability of the stock market will inevitably face difficulties.
• Real estate market
The real estate market is closely related to capital and financial markets. Real estate
investment requires a huge amount of capital. Currently, the financial potential of most real
estate businesses in Vietnam is quite limited, largely depending on external capital, mainly
loans from banks and credit institutions. This is a difficulty for real estate businesses in the
current financial crisis.
At the end of 2007, the state of real estate speculation pushed real estate prices in
Vietnam too high compared to the real value. The market had a virtual fever, virtual demand
increased. Entering 2008 and 2009, the Vietnamese economy was still facing difficulties
due to the impact of the economic crisis, forcing people to reduce spending, the real estate
market froze, real estate prices fell by 40%, businesses Real estate business fell into
difficulties, could not sell products, and had to bear high interest rates due to tight monetary
policy, which caused bank interest rates to rise, especially at the end of 2008.
A decrease in real estate prices will lead to a decrease in bank assets, and an increase
in bad debts, making the capital structure of commercial investment banks fall into a
disadvantageous position. Recently, FDI into Vietnam has increased rapidly, of which
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nearly 50% is invested in real estate. The impact of the financial crisis will be detrimental
to the disbursement of FDI in Vietnam, especially FDI in the real estate sector.
The subprime debt crisis in the US, which is rooted in the current real estate crisis,
does not directly affect the real estate market in Vietnam, but it will indirectly affect the
financial and monetary market. , stock market and psychological factors of people.
However, real estate lending by banks in Vietnam is far different from that in the US, so a
crisis in Vietnam's real estate market is unlikely. According to a report by the State Bank
of Vietnam, real estate lending accounts for about 9.5% of the total outstanding loans of
banks and credit institutions. However, the indirect impact on Vietnam's real estate market
as mentioned above is possible, Vietnam has foreseen this situation and the Government
has effective solutions to prevent bad effects.
IV. GOVERNMENT POLICIES
Before the impact of the world economic crisis, the Government of Vietnam has used policy
tools, especially fiscal policy and monetary policy to reduce negative impacts.
• Fiscal policy
Along with spending cuts, the Government makes many decisions that will put great
pressure on the budget in the coming years. The government approved an increase in
pensions and social benefits by 15% from October 2018, which is three months earlier than
planned. In addition, subsidies for low-paid civil servants and military personnel have also
been approved. The government revised the national poverty line in 2008, which has great
social implications. These measures, although costly, are important for alleviating the
impacts that the poor and vulnerable in society tend to experience as a result of the financial
crisis.
The government is currently preparing a package of urgent policy solutions to cope
with the global economic slowdown. This package of solutions includes: (1) Promoting
production and boosting exports; (2) Policy measures to stimulate investment and
consumption demand; (3) Monetary policy and financial policy; (4) Reducing poverty and
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ensuring social security; and (5) strengthen management and governance at all levels. The
budgetary impact of this policy package is still unclear, but spending is expected to increase.
The trends (currently around $1 billion in spending, or about 1% of GDP projected for
2008).
Applying IS model - LM we knowed that:
Expansionary fiscal policy (increase G or cut T)
causes IS curve to shift right.
Result:
• Interest rate increases
• Total output increases
• Initially the economy is at equilibrium E1:
r = r 2 ; Y = Y2
• Event: The government conducts expansionary fiscal policy (G increases or T
decreases).
AE↑ = C↑ + I + G↑
Aggregate expenditure increases. The IS curve shifts
to the right.
The economy reaches the new equilibrium at E2:
r = r 2 ; Y = Y2
r2 > r1 : Real interest rate increases
Y2 > Y1 : Total output increases
Conclusion: Real interest rate increases and total output increases.
• Monatary Policy
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In March 2008, the State Bank of Vietnam applied policy tightening, considering it a
part
important in the group solution of economic stability. The policy currency was
rendered through a series of continuous and systematic measures. The SBV stopped buying
foreign currencies from the end of 2007 when the domestic trend developed. Then, at the
beginning of 2008, the State Bank issued a compulsory banking signal in order to reduce
payments in Vietnam Dong in the banking system and at the same time re-apply deposit
export. As a result, increasing bearish signal strength and raising concerns about the risk of
liquidity loss next month and July.
interest rates in Vietnam in 2008
However, the official currency was later barred in response to the global economic
war. After a while at a high rate, it has started infrastructure. At the end of the month, the
State Bank decided to encourage commercial banks to focus on providing credit for
production, agriculture and rural development, export and import of commodity elements
as well as small and medium. enterprise.
Applying IS model - LM we knowed that:
Expansionary monetary policy (increase money
supply) causes LM curve to shift right
Result:
• Interest rate decreases
• Total output increases
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• Initially the economy is at equilibrium E1:
r = r 2 ; Y = Y2
• Event: The government conducts expansionary monetary policy (increase money
supply).
AE = C + I + G
Aggregate expenditure increases. The IS curve shifts to the right.
The economy reaches the new equilibrium at E2:
r = r 2 ; Y = Y2
r2 < r1: Real interest rate Decreases
Y2 < Y1: Total output Decreases
Conclusion: Real interest rate decreases and total output increases.
Thanks to the timely response of the fiscal and monetary policy combined with the
synchronous coordination of many policies, the crisis was soon overcome. However, this
is the first time that Vietnam has implemented a large-scale stimulus, so it is inevitable that
there will be some surprises and shortcomings such as: (i) The implementation of solutions
still shows confusion and lack of planning. and trial and error; (ii) the stimulus package has
not yet focused on the components of aggregate demand that need to be stimulated in order
to bring about the greatest stimulus effect in terms of time and cost effectiveness of the
stimulus package; (iii) the solution to stimulate demand should only focus on the short-
term, not both short-term and long-term; (iv) the policy has not reached the target audience
or is leaked before reaching the target audience; (v) The monetary policy and monetary
policy simultaneously loosened with a rather large-scale stimulus package, which has been
one of the factors that put pressure on both inflation and budget deficit; (vi) negotiable
interest rate mechanism increases consumer lending interest rates and puts pressure on
foreign exchange demand.
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Inadequacies in the above policy response are mainly due to: (i) The role of monetary
policy has not been considered equal to that of fiscal policy in the fight against economic
recession. In this crisis, monetary policy is of special interest while monetary policy only
acts as a static variable - with the prime interest rate framed continuously for 10 months to
get a fixed lending rate of 10.5% and a fixed rate of 10.5%. for the CSTK to stimulate
demand. If monetary policy is respected, according to the traditional theory, the State Bank
will reduce the operating interest rate, especially the basic interest rate more, and not use
interest rate support. Doing this, the budget will not be stressed due to having to pay interest
expenses, commercial banks will not bear the heavy responsibility of screening borrowers,
the demand for foreign currency credit will not be too stressful, exchange rate pressure will
not be too much. will not be too large, limiting negative arising during the loan approval
process; (ii) the data set has not been built so that it can be based on convincing quantitative
analysis of its impact on the economy.
V. THE CHALLENGES AND SHORTCOMINGS THE
GOVERNMENT HAD TO FACE WITH WHEN
CONDUCTING THOSE POLICES
Like many parts of the world, Vietnam is trying to stimulate the economy in the mid
of the global recession with specific policies, but according to experts, our country is also
confused because it also has to control the situation. prevent inflation from erupting again.
With a small and relatively isolated banking sector, Vietnam has not been directly
affected by the secondary debt crisis, but has brought down Wall Street, leading to world
credit failures and chaos in financial markets. global mainstream.
But the broader economic consequences of the worst global economic crisis since the
Great Depression are looming in the developing country, particularly in a vital export
sector.
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• Fear of export
Due to reduced demand from abroad, Vietnam's monthly exports have continuously
decreased from 6.5 billion USD in July, to 6 billion in August, 5.3 billion in September and
5.1 billion in October 2008.
And while it's too early to tell if foreign investors are pulling out of financial markets,
in the past month, they've been selling off stocks and bonds themselves.
Inflation has been in double digits throughout the year and stood at 26.7% in October,
easing slightly after world energy and commodity prices tumbled.
The government, wanting to reduce the amount of cash in circulation to combat
inflation, has raised interest rates and the required reserve deposit rate several times this
year.
But it also makes businesses short of money to invest, forcing the state bank to reverse
monetary policy as international and domestic factors have slowed economic growth in
Vietnam.
• Interest rates
Through the IS-LM model, we can grasp the market situation
Specifically, since October last year, the State Bank has reduced the basic interest rate
twice. It's currently at 12% and last week Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung said there
might be more cuts to free up credit next year.
Pham Do Chi, chief economist at investment fund VinaCapital Group, agrees that “the
government can further reduce the base rate to help stimulate the economy through the
domestic private sector and foreign investment. "
“They could cut their prime rate by 2% over the next three months. The economy can
accept it because we see inflation coming down and the economy cooling off.”
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“Given that the situation has completely changed in three or four months, a rate cut
seems to be on the right track,” said Sebastian Barbe, an economist at Credit Agricole in
Hong Kong.
He said that inflation in Vietnam "is very large but it will become less worrisome
because deflationary factors are very strong."
However, Vietnam's options for action are limited because the risk of inflation has not
disappeared.
• Social Issues
Some experts warn that a hike in public sector wages next year could send prices
soaring again.
Mr. Pham Do Chi said: "The main challenge is how to control the macroeconomic
situation to deal with the global recession without causing the recent inflationary pressure
to return."
And expert Vo Tri Thanh, from the Central Institute for Economic Management, said
that "it's time to loosen macroeconomic policy, but loosen it cautiously."
He said easing was needed because of "social problems", pointing to a spike in strikes
as well as a rise in unemployment.
VI. EFFECTIVENESS OF POLICIES
This major crisis occurred when Vietnam had just joined the WTO in early 2007,
which means it is more open, so the negative impact is easier to quickly and widely.
Vietnam's economic growth in 2008 was 6.31%, in 2009 it was 5.32%. Consumer price
growth rate was high in 2007 (12.63%), flared up in 2008: after 1 year (ie, December 2008
compared to December 2007) it increased to 19.89%; if the average in 2008 compared to
2007 has increased to 22.97%. The liquidity of some banks was difficult… The USD price
increased by 6.31%, in 2009 it increased by 10.7%. The trade deficit in 2007 jumped to
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14.2 billion USD, in 2008 it reached over 18 billion USD. Labor in industrial areas, craft
villages lost and underemployment...
Faced with the above situation, the priority target was soon changed from economic
growth to controlling inflation. As a result, consumer prices since July 2008 have slowed
down and for the first time in many years, CPI has decreased continuously in the last 3
months of the year. The liquidity of commercial banks is improved.
Trade deficit gradually decreased and stayed below 1 billion USD since June; The
overall balance of payments is secured. Foreign direct investment increased sharply in both
registered capital and realized capital. The amount of foreign currency entering our country
from other channels is still increasing strongly, increasing the country's liquidity, etc.
However, due to the negative impact of the financial crisis and the global economic
recession and the side effects from curbing inflation, in 2009 economic growth, foreign
investment, industrial growth, export decreased, unemployment and underemployment
increased,...
The priority target has been changed from controlling inflation to preventing
economic decline with many solutions, including stimulating investment and consumption
demand with the outstanding measure of providing interest rate compensation - a separate
measure. of Vietnam.
As a result, Vietnam did not fall into the whirlpool of the world crisis, the economy
did not suffer a recession (negative growth) but only slowed down its growth rate, fell to
the bottom in the first quarter of 2009, but started to decline. Beginning from the second
quarter of 2009, there have been signs of a bottom out and a steep upward trend with
economic growth, industrial growth, total retail sales of goods and service revenue
increasing, and price growth slowing down.
In 2010, in the context that the world economy had come out of recession, but the
recovery was still very difficult, Vietnam's economic growth was continuously higher than
the previous quarter, and for the whole year reached 6 points. 7%. This is a growth rate that
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is not equal to the 2001-2007 period, but higher than 2009 and 2008 and exceeds the set
target.
High growth was achieved in all 3 industry groups, in which the industry -
construction group had bottomed out the earliest and recovered the fastest; achieved in all
3 areas (state economic sector, non-state economic sector, foreign investment sector);
achieved in all regions and localities throughout the country.
Compared with the same period last year, the total retail sales of goods and services,
consumption, export, implementation of foreign direct investment, official development
assistance capital, and foreign indirect investment capital are all equal. increase. The trade
deficit has decreased compared to the previous year and is likely to be lower than the plan
both in terms of absolute turnover and in proportion to exports. The budget deficit compared
to GDP was below 6%, down from 6.6% of the previous year, lower than the 6.2% of the
plan. An overall result is that Vietnam has moved from a low-income group to a middle-
income group.
With the above results, it can be said that Vietnam has basically come out of the storm
from the fourth crisis - the world financial crisis, and is moving towards recovery to achieve
a higher goal in 2011. The book has brought about the expected effect. However, it is not
possible to be subjective and satisfied, because the economy still has limitations and
inadequacies and faces many difficulties and challenges, including hot issues of inflation
and trade deficit.
REFERENCES DOCUMENT
1. “Việt Nam trước khủng hoảng và suy thoái kinh tế toàn cầu” – Dr. Nguyễn Văn
Tạo
2. Wikipedia – "Khủng hoảng tài chính Hoa Kỳ 2007 - 2009”
3. “Báo cáo của Ngân hàng thế giới – Hội nghị nhóm tư vấn các nhà tài trợ cho Việt
Nam” Hà Nội 4-5-2020
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