Safal Niveshak Stock Analysis Excel (Ver.

4
www.safalniveshak.com

HOW TO USE THIS SPREADSHEET

Step 1 - This spreadsheet works only on Screener.in. The first step is to create a free account here - https://www.screener.in/r
Step 2 - After creating your account, while you are logged in to Screener.in website, visit this page - https://www.screener.in/e
Step 3 - Visit the home page of Screener.in and choose a company of your choice. Once you do that, you will see details of you
financial statement table called "Quarterly Results" and click on "View Consolidated". Now, all data you see for this company w
Step 4 - Scroll back to the top of the page, and you will see a button "Export to Excel" on the right side. Click the button and the
the exact format as "Safal Niveshak's Stock Analysis Excel Ver. 4.0". Now onwards, any excel you export for any company on S
Step 5 - Email me your love and testimonial for helping you with this excel. :-)

IMPORTANT INSTRUCTIONS
1. Ensure that the company whose data you are downloading has numbers at least starting from FY08 (March 2008). This is be
from, say, FY10, you will see incorrect data for FY08 and FY09 (which will be of Hero Motocorp on whose financials I have crea
2. All financial data of your chosen company will be automatically updated in the sheet you download, except "Cash and Bank"
which you must update manually from the company's annual reports. Don’t forget to make these changes as these numbers are
3. You may update the sheet and add your own analysis, formulae etc. and then upload again to Screener.in site using the Ste
Sheet" because this will cause errors in your future downloads.
4. DON’T touch any cell except the black ones, where you are required to update the numbers manually from Annual Reports (
growth assumptions etc.
4. I have added Comments and Instructions wherever necessary so as to explain the concepts. Read those carefully before wo
5. This sheet is not a replacement of the work required to read annual reports as part of the analysis process. So please do tha
some discrepancy in numbers (though rare), but you will know this only when you read annual reports.
6. I could not find a bug/errors in this spreadsheet, but if you notice some, please email me at - vishal@safalniveshak.com - and
7. I will keep on updating the sheet from time to time and will update the same on the website. I invite you to share your feedba
together.
8. This excel won't work for banking and financial services companies.

Note: All data is sourced from Screener.in

 Safal Niveshak Stock Warning! Excel can be a wonde
deadly weapon if you wish t
Analysis Excel (Ver. 4.0) careful of what you are gettin
garbage out. And if you need th
given stock, you m
www.safalniveshak.com
Basic Company Details
Parameters Details
Company GUJARAT GAS LTD
Current Stock Price (Rs) 511 Remember! Focus on decisio
Face Value (Rs) 2.0 evidenc
No. of Shares (Crore) 68.8
Market Capitalization (Rs Crore) 35,156

Key Financials - Trend

Parameters Details
Sales Growth (9-Year CAGR) #DIV/0! Please! It's your money. Plea
cause you to lose it all! I've de
Profit Before Tax Growth (9-Year CAGR) #DIV/0! but you alone are responsible
Net Profit Growth (8-Year CAGR) #DIV/0! ever after! I am not a sadist
Average Debt/Equity (5-Years, x) 1.2 analyzing companies on you
instead of a map, for you can c
Average Return on Equity (5-Years) 19.3%
Average P/E (5-Years, x) 33.0
Latest P/E (x) 29.9
Warning! Excel can be a wonderful tool to analyze the past. But it can be a
deadly weapon if you wish to use it to predict the future! So be very
careful of what you are getting into. Here, garbage in will always equal
garbage out. And if you need the excel to tell you what you must do with a
given stock, you must not use this tool anyways.

Remember! Focus on decisions, not outcomes. Look for disconfirming

evidence. Calculate. Pray!

Please! It's your money. Please don't blame me if results of this excel
cause you to lose it all! I've designed this excel to aid your own thinking,
but you alone are responsible for your actions. I want to live peacefully
ever after! I am not a sadist who wants you to do the hard work by
analyzing companies on your own. But I'd rather give you a compass
instead of a map, for you can confuse map with territory and lose it all. All
the best!
 Buffett Checklist - Read, Remember, Follow!
Source - Buffettology by Mary Buffett & David Clark
Parameter

Consumer monopoly or commodity?

Understand how business works

Is the company conservatively financed?

Are earnings strong and do they show an

upward trend?

Does the company stick with what it

knows?

Has the company been buying back its

shares?

Have retained earnings been invested

well?

Is the company’s return on equity above

average?

Is the company free to adjust prices to

inflation?
Does the company need to constantly
reinvest in capital?

Conclusion

Never Forget
 Buffett Checklist - Read, Remember, Follow!
Source - Buffettology by Mary Buffett & David Clark
Explanation
Seek out companies that have no or less competition, either due to a patent or brand name or similar intangible that
makes the product unique. Such companies will typically have high gross and operating profit margins because of their
unique niche. However, don't just go on margins as high margins may simply highlight companies within industries with
traditionally high margins. Thus, look for companies with gross, operating and net profit margins above industry norms.
Also look for strong growth in earnings and high return on equity in the past.

Try to invest in industries where you possess some specialized knowledge (where you work) or can more effectively
judge a company, its industry, and its competitive environment (simple products you consume). While it is difficult to
construct a quantitative filter, you should be able to identify areas of interest. You should "only" consider analyzing
those companies that operate in areas that you can clearly grasp - your circle of competence. Of course you can
increase the size of the circle, but only over time by learning about new industries. More important than the size of the
circle is to know its boundaries.

Seeks out companies with conservative financing, which equates to a simple, safe balance sheet. Such companies tend
to have strong cash flows, with little need for long-term debt. Look for low debt to equity or low debt-burden ratios. Also
seek companies that have history of consistently generating positive free cash flows.

Rising earnings serve as a good catalyst for stock prices. So seek companies with strong, consistent, and expanding
earnings (profits). Seek companies with 5/10 year earnings per share growth greater than 25% (along with safe balance
sheets). To help indicate that earnings growth is still strong, look for companies where the last 3-years earnings growth
rate is higher than the last 10-years growth rate. More important than the rate of growth is the consistency in such
growth. So exclude companies with volatile earnings growth in the past, even if the "average" growth has been high.

Like you should stock to your circle of competence, a company should invest its capital only in those businesses within
its circle of competence. This is a difficult factor to screen for on a quantitative level. Before investing in a company, look
at the company’s past pattern of acquisitions and new directions. They should fit within the primary range of operations
for the firm. Be cautious of companies that have been very aggressive in acquisitions in the past.

Buffett prefers that firms reinvest their earnings within the company, provided that profitable opportunities exist. When
companies have excess cash flow, Buffett favours shareholder-enhancing maneuvers such as share buybacks. While
we do not screen for this factor, a follow-up examination of a company would reveal if it has a share buyback plan in
place.

Seek companies where earnings have risen as retained earnings (earnings after paying dividends) have been
employed profitably. A great way to screen for such companies is by looking at those that have had consistent earnings
and strong return on equity in the past.

Consider it a positive sign when a company is able to earn above-average (better than competitors) returns on equity
without employing much debt. Average return on equity for Indian companies over the last 10 years is approximately
16%. Thus, seek companies that earn at least this much (16%) or more than this. Again, consistency is the key here.

That's what is called "pricing power". Companies with moat (as seen from other screening metrics as suggested above
(like high ROE, high grow margins, low debt etc.) are able to adjust prices to inflation without the risk of losing significant
volume sales.
Companies that consistently need capital to grow their sales and profits are like bank savings account, and thus bad for
an investor's long term portfolio. Seek companies that don't need high capital investments consistently. Retained
earnings must first go toward maintaining current operations at competitive levels, so the lower the amount needed to
maintain current operations, the better. Here, more than just an absolute assessment, a comparison against
competitors will help a lot. Seek companies that consistently generate positive and rising free cash flows.

Sensible investing is always about using “folly and discipline” - the discipline to identify excellent businesses, and wait
for the folly of the market to drive down the value of these businesses to attractive levels. You will have little trouble
understanding this philosophy. However, its successful implementation is dependent upon your dedication to learn and
follow the principles, and apply them to pick stocks successfully.

Focus on decisions, not outcomes. Look for disconfirming evidence.

 Balance Sheet
GUJARAT GAS LTD
Rs Cr Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20
Equity Share Capital - - - - 138 138 138 138 138 138
Reserves - - - - 1,872 1,386 1,526 1,729 2,068 3,180
Borrowings - - - - 3,226 2,357 2,359 2,328 2,213 2,055
Other Liabilities - - - - 1,679 2,189 2,353 2,467 2,739 2,553
Total - - - - 6,915 6,069 6,375 6,662 7,158 7,925

Net Block - - - - 4,487 4,673 4,903 5,094 5,290 5,585

Capital Work in Progress - - - - 357 468 506 478 489 569
Investments - - - - 1,118 144 92 41 42 43
Other Assets - - - - 953 784 875 1,049 1,337 1,728
Total - - - - 6,915 6,069 6,375 6,662 7,158 7,925

Working Capital - - - - -726 -1,405 -1,478 -1,418 -1,403 -825

Debtors - - - - 361 300 348 392 510 510
Inventory - - - - 41 41 42 57 69 46
Cash & Bank** 4,735 3,367 3,190 3,393 2,605 3,546 4,739 5,829
** Manually enter this number; Convert to Rs Crore if not already done in the Annual Reports; Use Cash+Bank+Current Investments from Consolidated Balance Sheet in Annual Reports

Debtor Days - - - - 15 18 25 23 24 18
Inventory Turnover - - - - 219 148 122 109 112 223
Fixed Asset Turnover #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 2.0 1.3 1.0 1.2 1.5 1.8
Debt/Equity #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.6
Return on Equity 22% 12% 13% 16% 19% 36%
Return on Capital Employed #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 19% 13% 13% 16% 18% 26%
 Profit & Loss Account / Income Statement
GUJARAT GAS LTD
Rs Cr Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20 Trailing
Sales - - - - 9,006 6,106 5,093 6,174 7,754 10,300 9,092
% Growth YOY #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! -32% -17% 21% 26% 33%
Expenses - - - - 7,896 5,367 4,331 5,261 6,758 8,652 7,133
Material Cost (% of Sales) #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 83% 80% 75% 76% 78% 77% Check for wide fluctuations in key
Power and Fuel #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% expense items. For manufacturing firms,
Other Mfr. Exp #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 2% 3% 4% 4% 4% 3% check their material costs etc. For
Employee Cost #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 1% 2% 3% 2% 2% 2% services firms, look at employee costs.
Selling and Admin Cost #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 1% 1% 2% 1% 2% 1%
Operating Profit - - - - 1,110 739 762 913 997 1,649 1,959
Operating Profit Margin #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 12% 12% 15% 15% 13% 16% 22%
Other Income - - - - 104 12 18 29 95 82 75
Other Income as % of Sales #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 1.1% 0.2% 0.4% 0.5% 1.2% 0.8% 0.8%
Depreciation - - - - 238 245 257 272 288 318 335
Interest - - - - 334 250 218 206 208 205 140
Interest Coverage(Times) #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 3 2 2 3 4 7 12
Profit before tax (PBT) - - - - 641 256 305 464 596 1,208 1,560
% Growth YOY #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! -60% 19% 52% 28% 103%
PBT Margin #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 7% 4% 6% 8% 8% 12% 17%
Tax - - - - 198 66 84 172 177 9 383
Net profit - - - - 444 190 221 292 418 1,199 1,177
% Growth YOY #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! -57% 16% 33% 43% 186%
Net Profit Margin #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 5% 3% 4% 5% 5% 12% 13%
EPS - - - - 1.0 2.8 3.2 4.2 6.1 17.4 17.1
% Growth YOY #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 180% 16% 33% 43% 186%
Price to earning 40.0 48.0 39.2 24.4 13.3 29.9
Price - - - - - 111 154 167 148 231 511
Dividend Payout 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 15.4% 18.1% 18.7% 18.8% 16.5% 7.2%
Market Cap - - - - - 7,608 10,584 11,471 10,195 15,892
Retained Earnings - - - - 375 156 179 237 350 1,113
Buffett's $1 Test 6.6

TRENDS: 10 YEARS 7 YEARS 5 YEARS 3 YEARS

Sales Growth #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 2.7% 26.5%
PBT Growth #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 13.5% 58.3%
PBT Margin #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 7.4% 9.0%
Price to Earning 33.0 33.0 33.0 25.6

Check for long term vs short term trends here. Check if the growth over
past 3 or 5 years has slowed down / improved compared to long term (7 to
10 years) growth numbers.
 Cash Flow Statement
GUJARAT GAS LTD
Rs Cr Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20 Total
Cash from Operating Activity (CFO) - - - - 1,094 637 701 785 964 1,420 5,601
% Growth YoY #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! -42% 10% 12% 23% 47%
Cash from Investing Activity - - - - -365 375 -458 -430 -612 -467 -1,956
Cash from Financing Activity - - - - -563 -1,224 -251 -273 -349 -502 -3,164
Net Cash Flow - - - - 166 -212 -9 82 3 451 481
CFO/Sales #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 12% 10% 14% 13% 12% 14%
CFO/Net Profit #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 247% 335% 318% 268% 230% 118%
Capex** 315 212 364 565 607 937 1,156 1,638 1,238 824
FCF -315 -212 -364 -565 487 -300 -455 -853 -274 596 -2,255
Average FCF (3 Years) -177
FCF Growth YoY -33% 72% 55% -186% -162% 52% 87% -68% -318%
FCF/Sales #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 5% -5% -9% -14% -4% 6%
FCF/Net Profit #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 109% -158% -206% -292% -65% 50%

** Manually enter this number;

Convert to Rs Crore if not already
done in the Annual Reports; Use
"Capital expenditure" number
shown under "Cash Flow from
Investing Activities" segment of
Consolidated Cash Flow Statement
available in the Annual Reports
 Key Ratios
GUJARAT GAS LTD
Mar/09 Mar/10 Mar/11 Mar/12 Mar/15 Mar/16 Mar/17 Mar/18 Mar/19
Sales Growth #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! -32.2% -16.6% 21.2% 25.6%
PBT Growth #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! -60.1% 19.1% 52.4% 28.3%
Net Profit Growth #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! -57.2% 16.1% 32.6% 43.1%
Dividend Growth #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! -50.0% 20.0% 33.3% 25.0%
Operating Cash Flow Growth #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! -41.8% 10.0% 12.0% 22.9%
Free Cash Flow Growth -32.9% 72.1% 55.2% ### ### 51.8% 87.4% -67.9%

Operating Margin #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 12.3% 12.1% 15.0% 14.8% 12.9%
PBT Margin #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 7.1% 4.2% 6.0% 7.5% 7.7%
Net Margin #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 4.9% 3.1% 4.3% 4.7% 5.4%

Debtor Days - - - - 14.6 18.0 24.9 23.2 24.0

Inventory Turnover - - - - 219.2 147.7 122.3 108.7 111.7
Fixed Asset Turnover #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
#DIV/0! 2.0 1.3 1.0 1.2 1.5
Debt/Equity #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
#DIV/0! 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.2 1.0
Debt/Assets #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
#DIV/0! 46.7% 38.8% 37.0% 34.9% 30.9%
Interest Coverage (Times) #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
#DIV/0! 2.9 2.0 2.4 3.3 3.9
Return on Equity 22.1% 12.5% 13.3% 15.7% 19.0%
Return on Capital Employed #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 18.6% 13.0% 13.0% 16.0% 18.2%
Free Cash Flow (Rs Cr) -315 -212 -364 -565 487 -300 -455 -853 -274
Mar/20
32.8%
102.8%
186.5%
25.0%
47.3%
###

16.0%
11.7%
11.6%

18.1
222.7
1.8
0.6
25.9%
6.9
36.1%
26.3%
596
What to look for?
Higher is better, but also look for long term stability and consistency
Higher is better, but also look for long term stability and consistency
Higher is better, but also look for long term stability and consistency
Higher isn't always better, esp. when the company is generating high ROE, which means the management is allocating capital
Higher is better, but also look for long term stability and consistency
Higher is better, but also look for long term stability and consistency

Higher is better, but also look for long term stability and consistency, plus the nature of the industry. Also compare with industry
Higher is better, but also look for long term stability and consistency, plus the nature of the industry. Also compare with industry
Higher is better, but also look for long term stability and consistency, plus the nature of the industry. Also compare with industry

Lower/reducing is better. Compare with industry peer(s)

Higher/rising is better. Compare with industry peer(s)
Higher/rising is better. Compare with industry peer(s)
Nil / lower than 0.5 / reducing is better
Lower is better
Look for number > 5
Look for number > 20%. Also check if the debt is low/nil. Compare with industry peer(s)
Look for number > 20%. Also check if the debt is low/nil. Compare with industry peer(s)
Look for positive and rising numbers. If the company consistently generates negative FCF over say 10 years, avoid it.
20% Profit Margin 40%
Capital Allo
Check for a rising trend a
Numbers > 20% long term
15% 30% has zero/marginal debt. C

10% 20%

5% 10%
Check for a rising trend and/or consistency.
Compare with a close competitor
0% 0%
Jan/09 Jan/11 Jan/13 Jan/15 Jan/17 Jan/19 Jan/09 Jan/11 Jan/

Operating Margin PBT Margin

Net Margin RO

12,000
Revenue 250% Revenue and P
Check for a rising trend. Check for a r
10,000 200% Compare gro

8,000 150%
100%
6,000
50%
4,000
0%
2,000 Jan/10 Jan/12 Jan
-50%
- -100%
Jan/09 Jan/11 Jan/13 Jan/15 Jan/17 Jan/19
Revenue Gro
Net Profit Gr

1,400 Profit Over Time Operating an

2,000 Check
Check for a rising trend. for positive numb
1,200 1,500 which are rising over ti
1,000 1,000
800
500
600
400 -
200 -500Jan/09 Jan/11 Jan

- -1,000
Jan/09 Jan/11 Jan/13 Jan/15 Jan/17 Jan/19

PBT Net Profit Operating Cash

Data for Charts (Please don't touch any number below)
Margins
Mar/09 Mar/10 Mar/11 Mar/12 Mar/15 Mar/16 Mar/17 Mar/18 Mar/19
Operating Margin #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 12% 12% 15% 15% 13%
PBT Margin #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 7% 4% 6% 8% 8%
Net Margin #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 5% 3% 4% 5% 5%

Management Effectiveness
Mar/09 Mar/10 Mar/11 Mar/12 Mar/15 Mar/16 Mar/17 Mar/18 Mar/19
ROE 22% 12% 13% 16% 19%
ROCE #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 19% 13% 13% 16% 18%

Revenue & Profit Growth

Mar/10 Mar/11 Mar/12 Mar/15 Mar/16 Mar/17 Mar/18 Mar/19 Mar/20
Revenue Growth #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! -32% -17% 21% 26% 33%
PBT Growth #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! -60% 19% 52% 28% 103%
Net Profit Growth #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! -57% 16% 33% 43% 186%

Revenue & Profit

Mar/09 Mar/10 Mar/11 Mar/12 Mar/15 Mar/16 Mar/17 Mar/18 Mar/19
Revenue - - - - 9,006 6,106 5,093 6,174 7,754
PBT - - - - 641 256 305 464 596
Net Profit - - - - 444 190 221 292 418

Cash Flows
Mar/09 Mar/10 Mar/11 Mar/12 Mar/15 Mar/16 Mar/17 Mar/18 Mar/19
Operating Cash Flow - - - - 1,094 637 701 785 964
Free Cash Flow -315 -212 -364 -565 487 -300 -455 -853 -274
 Capital Allocation Quality
Check for a rising trend and/or consistency.
Numbers > 20% long term are good. Also check if the company
has zero/marginal debt. Compare with a close competitor Note: Please ignore the dates
on the X-axis. The figures are
for/as on the year ending date,
which for most Indian
companies would be 31st
March of that year

Jan/09 Jan/11 Jan/13 Jan/15 Jan/17 Jan/19

ROE ROCE

Revenue and Profit Growth (YoY)

Check for a rising trend and/or low volatility.
Compare growth rates with a close competitor.

Jan/10 Jan/12 Jan/14 Jan/16 Jan/18 Jan/20

Revenue Growth PBT Growth

Net Profit Growth

Operating and Free Cash Flow

0 Check for positive numbers and
0 which are rising over time.

0
0

0Jan/09 Jan/11 Jan/13 Jan/15 Jan/17 Jan/19

Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow

Mar/20
16%
12%
12%

Mar/20
36%
26%

Mar/20
10,300
1,208
1,199

Mar/20
1,420
596
 Common Size P&L
Rs Cr Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17
Sales 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Raw Material Cost #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 83% 80% 75% 76% 78% 77%
Change in Inventory #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Power and Fuel #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%
Other Mfr. Exp #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 2% 3% 4% 4% 4% 3%
Employee Cost #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 1% 2% 3% 2% 2% 2%
Selling and Admin Cost #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 1% 1% 2% 1% 2% 1%
Other Expenses #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Operating Profit #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 12% 12% 15% 15% 13% 16%
Other Income #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 1% 0% 0% 0% 1% 1%
Depreciation #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 3% 4% 5% 4% 4% 3%
Interest #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 4% 4% 4% 3% 3% 2%
Profit Before Tax #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 7% 4% 6% 8% 8% 12%
Tax #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 2% 1% 2% 3% 2% 0%
Net Profit #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 5% 3% 4% 5% 5% 12%
Dividend Amount #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%

Common Size Balance Sheet

Rs Cr Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17
Equity Share Capital #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2%
Reserves #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 27% 23% 24% 26% 29% 40%
Borrowings #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 47% 39% 37% 35% 31% 26%
Other Liabilities #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 24% 36% 37% 37% 38% 32%
Total Liabilities 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Net Block #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 65% 77% 77% 76% 74% 70%
Capital Work in Progress #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 5% 8% 8% 7% 7% 7%
Investments #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 16% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1%
Other Assets #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 14% 13% 14% 16% 19% 22%
Total Assets 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Receivables #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 5% 5% 5% 6% 7% 6%
Inventory #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%
Cash & Bank #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 3% 1% 1% 2% 4% 9%
 A common-size financial statement is displays line
items as a percentage of one selected or common
figure. Creating common-size financial statements
makes it easier to analyze a company over time and
compare it with its peers. Using common-size
financial statements helps investors spot trends that a
raw financial statement may not uncover.
 Dhandho Intrinsic Value Calculation
Read the book - The Dhandho Investor by Mohnish Pabrai

GUJARAT GAS LTD GUJARAT GAS LTD

Dhandho IV - Lower Range Dhandho IV - Higher Range
Year FCF (Rs Cr) PV of FCF (Rs Cr) Assumed FCF Growth Year
0 Excess Cash (Latest) 5,829 Year 1-3 15% 0 Excess Cash (Latest)
1 FY18 (204) (182) Year 4-6 10% 1 FY18
2 FY19 (234) (187) Year 7-10 5% 2 FY19
3 FY20 (269) (192) Discount Rate 12% 3 FY20
4 FY21 (296) (188) 4 FY21
5 FY22 (326) (185) Last 5-Years' CAGR 5 FY22
6 FY23 (358) (182) Sales 3% 6 FY23
7 FY24 (376) (170) PBT 13% 7 FY24
8 FY25 (395) (160) FCF 4% 8 FY25
9 FY26 (415) (150) 9 FY26
10 FY27 (436) (140) 10 FY27
10 -4,357 (1,403) 10
Intrinsic Value 2,691 Intrinsic Value
Current Mkt. Cap. 35,156 Current Mkt. Cap.
Premium/(Discount) to IV 1206% Premium/(Discount) to IV

Note: See explanation of this model here

P.S. In case of companies earning negative FCF, where this model will not work, you must use a normalized positive FCF as th
number. This number is your assumption of FCF the business will earn in a normal year, without capex. Check the history
business while arriving at your assumption, and use your judgment wisely without twisting the model to fit your version of r
Calculation
by Mohnish Pabrai

GUJARAT GAS LTD

Dhandho IV - Higher Range
FCF (Rs Cr) PV of FCF (Rs Cr) Assumed FCF Growth
Excess Cash (Latest) 5,829 Year 1-3 20%
(212) (190) Year 4-6 15%
(255) (203) Year 7-10 10%
(306) (218) Discount Rate 12%
(352) (224)
(405) (230)
(465) (236)
(512) (232)
(563) (227)
(619) (223)
(681) (219)
(10,220) (3,291)
Intrinsic Value 337
Current Mkt. Cap. 35,156
Premium/(Discount) to IV 10341%

use a normalized positive FCF as the starting

, without capex. Check the history of this
ng the model to fit your version of reality.
 Ben Graham Formula (Low Range) Ben Graham Formula (High Range
Company Name GUJARAT GAS LTD Company Name
Year Ended Mar/20 Year Ended

Avg 5-Yr Net Profit (Rs Crore) 464.1 Avg 5-Yr Net Profit (Rs Crore)
PE Ratio at 0% Growth 8.5 PE Ratio at 0% Growth
Long-Term Growth Rate 11.0 Long-Term Growth Rate

Ben Graham Value (Rs Crore) 14,154 Ben Graham Value (Rs Crore)
Current Market Cap (Rs Crore) 35,156 Current Market Cap (Rs Crore)

EXPLANATION
Ben Graham's Original Formula: Value = EPS x (8.5 + 2G)
Here, EPS is the trailing 12 month EPS, 8.5 is the P/E ratio of a stock with 0% growth and g is the growth rate for the next 7-10

Ben Graham's Revised Formula: Value = [EPS x (8.5 + 2G) x 4.4] / Y

Here, 4.4 is what Graham determined to be his minimum required rate of return. At the time of around 1962 when Graham was

Note: I have used Graham's original formula in the above calculations

m Formula (High Range)
GUJARAT GAS LTD
Mar/20

464.1
8.5
22.0

24,363
35,156

is the growth rate for the next 7-10 years

of around 1962 when Graham was publicizing his works, the risk free interest rate was 4.4% but to adjust to the present, we divide this num
resent, we divide this number by today’s AAA corporate bond rate, represented by Y in the formula above.
 Dicounted Cash Flow Valuation
GUJARAT GAS LTD

Initial Cash Flow (Rs Cr) (177) (4,031)

35,156
Years 1-5 6-10 -11%
FCF Growth Rate 15% 12%
Discount Rate 12%
Terminal Growth Rate 2%

Net Debt Level (Rs Cr) (3,773)

Year FCF Growth Present Value

1 (204) 15% (182)
2 (234) 15% (187)
3 (269) 15% (192)
4 (310) 15% (197)
5 (356) 15% (202)
6 (399) 12% (202)
7 (447) 12% (202)
8 (500) 12% (202)
9 (560) 12% (202)
10 (628) 12% (202)

Final Calculations
Terminal Year (640)
PV of Year 1-10 Cash Flows (1,970)
Terminal Value (2,061)
Total PV of Cash Flows (4,031)
Current Market Cap (Rs Cr) 35,156

Note: See explanation of DCF here

Valuation
D

DCF Value (As calculated in cell B29)

Current Market Cap
DCF as % of Current Mkt Cap
 Expected Returns Model
GUJARAT GAS LTD
Particulars Mar/09 Mar/10 Mar/11 Mar/12 Mar/15 Mar/16 Mar/17
Net Profit (Rs Crore) - - - - 447 190 221
Net Profit Margin #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 5% 3% 4%
Return on Equity 22% 12% 13%

Calculations (Enter values only in black cells)

Estimated CAGR in Net Profit over next 10 years 12%
Estimated Net Profit after 10 years (Rs Cr) 3,723
Current P/E (x) 29.3
Exit P/E in the 10th year from now (x, Estimated) 20.0
Esti. Market Cap (10th year from now; Rs Cr) 74,467
Cost of Capital/Discount Rate 12%
Discounted Value (Rs Cr) 23,976
Current Market Cap (Rs Cr) 35,156

Note: See explanation of this model here

el
Mar/18 Mar/19 Mar/20 CAGR (9-Yr) CAGR (5-Yr)
292 418 1,199 #DIV/0! 22%
5% 5% 12%
16% 19% 36%
 Intrinsic Value Range
GUJARAT GAS LTD
Lower Higher Remember! Give importance to a stock's valuations / fai
Dhandho 2,691 337 only "after" you have answered in "Yes" to these two que
Ben Graham 14,154 24,363 (1) Is this business simple to be understood? and (2) C
DCF -4,031 understand this business?
Expected Return 23,976
Don't try to quantify everything. In stock research, the les
Current Market Cap. 35,156 mathematical you are, the more simple, sensible, and use
be your analysis and results. Great analysis is generally "
the-envelope".
Explanation: Considering the above
range, we can say that Hero Moto's IV Also, your calculated "fair value" will be proven wrong
range is between Rs 55,000 crore to Rs future, so don't invest your savings just because you fall
95,000 crore. It's a big range, but that's with it. Don't look for perfection. It is overrated. Focus
fine (who is looking for precision?). Now, decisions, not outcomes. Look for disconfirming evide
if the current market cap is within this IV
range, it makes the stock
reasonably/attractively priced. If the
current market cap is higher then the
higher value of the range, it makes it
overpriced. But remember, these are just
numbers!
 importance to a stock's valuations / fair value
ave answered in "Yes" to these two questions -
ess simple to be understood? and (2) Can I
understand this business?

fy everything. In stock research, the less non-

are, the more simple, sensible, and useful will
nd results. Great analysis is generally "back-of-
the-envelope".

lated "fair value" will be proven wrong in the

vest your savings just because you fall in love
ook for perfection. It is overrated. Focus on
outcomes. Look for disconfirming evidence.
GUJARAT GAS LTD
SCREENER.IN
Narration Sep-18 Dec-18 Mar-19 Jun-19 Sep-19 Dec-19 Mar-20 Jun-20 Sep-20 Dec-20
Sales 1,964 2,117 1,908 2,615 2,513 2,506 2,667 1,083 2,513 2,829
% Growth YOY 28% 18% 40% -59% 0% 13%
Expenses 1,804 1,796 1,653 2,148 2,143 2,136 2,241 897 1,780 2,215
Operating Profit 161 321 254 466 370 371 426 186 733 615
Other Income 19 -2 19 23 24 20 19 15 21 20
Depreciation 72 73 72 78 80 79 80 82 86 86
Interest 49 48 50 51 53 46 42 40 34 24
Profit before tax 58 198 151 361 261 264 322 79 635 524
PBT Margin 3% 9% 8% 14% 10% 11% 12% 7% 25% 19%
% Growth YOY 353% 33% 113% -78% 143% 98%
Tax 17 60 34 127 -256 67 72 20 160 132
Net profit 41 139 117 234 517 197 250 59 475 392
% Growth YOY 1161% 42% 115% -75% -8% 99%
OPM 8% 15% 13% 18% 15% 15% 16% 17% 29% 22%
COMPANY NAME GUJARAT GAS LTD
LATEST VERSION 2.10 PLEASE DO NOT MAKE ANY CH
CURRENT VERSION 2.10

META
Number of shares 68.84
Face Value 2
Current Price 510.7
Market Capitalization 35156.08

PROFIT & LOSS

Report Date Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-15 Mar-16
Sales 9006.26 6105.58
Raw Material Cost 7,477.52 4,914.12
Change in Inventory -0.48 -0.31
Power and Fuel 52.09 60.36
Other Mfr. Exp 172 184.43
Employee Cost 115.19 132.68
Selling and admin 65.34 73.68
Other Expenses 13.69 1.22
Other Income 103.53 12.12
Depreciation 237.68 245.42
Interest 334.36 249.62
Profit before tax 641.44 255.86
Tax 197.86 65.82
Net profit 446.54 190.04
Dividend Amount 68.84 34.42

Quarters
Report Date Sep-18 Dec-18 Mar-19 Jun-19 Sep-19 Dec-19
Sales 1964.34 2117.39 1907.55 2614.61 2512.91 2506.19
Expenses 1803.78 1796.19 1653.44 2148.12 2142.63 2135.67
Other Income 18.87 -1.55 18.72 22.91 23.77 19.55
Depreciation 72.36 72.77 72.23 77.85 80.18 79.46
Interest 49.41 48.49 49.72 50.95 52.76 46.46
Profit before tax 57.66 198.39 150.88 360.6 261.11 264.15
Tax 16.66 59.65 34.29 126.56 -255.92 66.85
Net profit 41 138.74 116.59 234.04 517.03 197.3
Operating Profit 160.56 321.2 254.11 466.49 370.28 370.52

BALANCE SHEET
Report Date Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-15 Mar-16
Equity Share Capital 137.68 137.68
Reserves 1872.33 1385.61
Borrowings 3,225.72 2,356.61
Other Liabilities 1678.97 2189.33
Total 6914.7 6069.23
Net Block 4486.66 4672.88
Capital Work in Progress 357.39 468.16
Investments 1118.12 143.81
Other Assets 952.53 784.38
Total 6914.7 6069.23
Receivables 360.6 300.49
Inventory 41.09 41.34
Cash & Bank 237.41 67.98
No. of Equity Shares 137678025 137678025
New Bonus Shares
Face value 10 10

CASH FLOW:
Report Date Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-15 Mar-16
Cash from Operating Activity 1094.37 637.03
Cash from Investing Activity -365.01 375.21
Cash from Financing Activity -563.24 -1224.03
Net Cash Flow 166.12 -211.79

PRICE: 110.51

DERIVED:
Adjusted Equity Shares in Cr - - - - 450.00 68.84
DO NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THIS SHEET

Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20

5092.61 6174.33 7754.41 10300.34
3,838.04 4,678.61 6,084.00 7,881.62
0.13 0.62 1.05 -0.16
59.31 71.7 78.03 88.1
218.72 270.01 300.78 336.77
133.06 144.08 165.08 181.83
77.96 89.9 120.57 148.62
3.56 7.66 10.4 14.58
17.93 29.3 94.76 82.25
257.33 271.82 288.01 317.98
218 206.2 207.73 204.95
304.69 464.27 595.62 1207.98
84.1 171.83 177.17 9.16
220.59 292.44 418.45 1198.82
41.3 55.07 68.84 86.05

Mar-20 Jun-20 Sep-20 Dec-20

2666.63 1082.92 2513.01 2829.4
2240.93 897.18 1779.99 2214.59
18.91 15.31 21.48 19.74
80.49 82.25 85.62 86.15
42.00 40.10 33.87 24.32
322.12 78.7 635.01 524.08
71.66 19.63 159.53 131.78
250.46 59.07 475.48 392.3
425.7 185.74 733.02 614.81

Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20

137.68 137.68 137.68 137.68
 1526.04 1728.7 2067.59 3179.67
2,358.88 2,328.22 2,213.11 2,055.36
2352.8 2467.18 2739.15 2552.7
6375.4 6661.78 7157.53 7925.41
4902.98 5094.01 5289.99 5585.08
505.72 478.33 488.86 569.49
91.64 40.74 42.08 43.21
875.06 1048.7 1336.6 1727.63
6375.4 6661.78 7157.53 7925.41
347.51 391.71 510.31 510.14
41.65 56.78 69.41 46.26
64.5 140.12 313.19 694.07
137678025 137678025 688390125 688390125

10 10 2 2

Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20

700.53 784.67 964.29 1419.99
-458.17 -429.57 -612.14 -466.6
-251.35 -273.32 -349.42 -502.37
-8.99 81.78 2.73 451.02

153.75 166.64 148.1 230.85

68.84 68.84 68.84 68.84

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