Nirmal Bang
Nirmal Bang
Axis Bank
28 January 2021
approved for Rs27.09bn worth of loans (0.42% of advances; lower than initial estimates) and the
quantum is unlikely to increase further. PCR on the restructured book stands at 26% and 100% Arjun Bagga
provisions have been made on unsecured retail restructured book. Given the stock of additional
provisions, 4QFY21 provisions are expected to be lower than 3QFY21. Demand resolution Research Associate
across retail stood at 98% in Dec’20 compared to 94% in Sept’20 and 97% pre-Covid. Per se, on arjun.bagga@nirmalbang.com
the key P&L items, Axis Bank reported NII growth of 14.3% YoY at Rs73,728mn, PPOP growth of +91-22-6273 8111
6.1% YoY at Rs60,955mn and PAT decline of 36.4% YoY at Rs11,166mn. We retain Accumulate
on the stock with a target price (TP) of Rs706 based on 1.8x FY23E ABV.
Pro-forma NPAs up: Pro-forma corporate GNPA stood at 7.0% and SME NPA stood at 5.7%. As a prudent Key Data
measure, interest income and fee income have been reversed for pro-forma slippages. Restructuring has Current Shares O/S (mn) 3,061.7
been approved for Rs27.09bn worth accounts (0.42% of advances) and further restructuring is unlikely.
Provisions at Rs46.04bn were significantly ahead of our estimates and were indicative of the bank’s Mkt Cap (Rsbn/US$bn) 1,935.3/26.5
conservative stance. Provisions have been made at borrowers’ level and not just at facility level. PCR on the 52 Wk H / L (Rs) 761/285
restructured book stood at 26% and 100% provisions have been made on unsecured retail restructured book.
Cumulative non-specific provisions stood at 2.08% of standard loans. Covid provisions were not utilised Daily Vol. (3M NSE Avg.) 21,866,500
during the quarter and the management stated that additional provisions are a measure to strengthen the
balance sheet and are not reflective of asset quality. Demand resolution across retail stood at 98% in Dec’20 Price Performance (%)
compared to 94% in Sept’20 and 97% pre-Covid.
Operating expenses affected by one-offs and salary increments: Sharp pick-up in employee expenses 1M 6M 1 Yr
(up 22.9% YoY and 18.7% QoQ) was on account of increased headcount, increments and provisions for
Axis Bank 2.3 44.6 (14.3)
social security code. Non-employee expenses were also higher given the increased activity levels, collection
expenses and investments in technology. Cost to income ratio stood at 45.3% (up 141bps YoY and 728bps Nifty Index 1.6 24.8 14.0
QoQ).
Credit growth driven by retail disbursements: Retail disbursements were led by the retail segment, which Source: Bloomberg
witnessed all-time high levels. Within retail, focus was on HL, LAP and Auto wherein disbursements grew by
23%, 11% and 10% YoY, respectively. While engagements have been improved with better rated companies
in the corporate and commercial banking segment, given the unattractive rates in the corporate segment,
growth is unlikely to be significant. Under ECLGS, Rs105.83bn was sanctioned and Rs88.75bn was
disbursed to 25,000 customers.
,
Y/E Mar (Rsmn) Q3FY21 Q3FY20 Q2FY21 YoY (%) QoQ (%)
Interest Income 1,54,984 1,57,083 1,60,629 (1.3) (3.5)
Interest Expense 81,256 92,553 87,368 (12.2) (7.0)
Net Interest Income 73,728 64,530 73,261 14.3 0.6
NIM (%) 3.72 3.70 3.71 2 bps 1 bps
Non Interest Income 37,760 37,866 38,072 (0.3) (0.8)
Total Income 1,11,488 1,02,396 1,11,333 8.9 0.1
Staff Cost 16,774 13,652 14,129 22.9 18.7
Other Op Exp 33,759 31,316 28,227 7.8 19.6
Total Operating Expenses 50,533 44,969 42,356 12.4 19.3
Cost to Income (%) 45.3 43.9 38.0 141 bps 728 bps
Pre-Provisioning Operating Profit 60,955 57,427 68,976 6.1 (11.6)
Provisions 46,043 34,709 45,807 32.7 0.5
PBT 14,912 22,718 23,170 (34.4) (35.6)
Tax 3,746 5,148 6,343 (27.2) (40.9)
-effective tax rate 25.1 22.7 27.4 246 bps -225 bps
PAT 11,166 17,570 16,827 (36.4) (33.6)
EPS (Rs) 3.6 6.2 5.5 (41.5) (33.7)
BV (Rs) 322.8 305.7 319.1 5.6 1.1
Deposits 65,41,403 59,16,755 63,54,543 10.6 2.9
Advances 58,27,539 55,01,377 57,63,725 5.9 1.1
Source: Company, Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities Research
1.7mn new liability accounts were opened in 3QFY21 compared to 4.8mn in 9MFY21. Retail liabilities are
expected to be enough to sustain growth planned in future.
The bank doesn’t intend to chase growth at prices which don’t make sense. Demand from corporates is at a
very low price currently.
Operating Expenses
Increase in employee expenses was due to increased headcount and rolling out of increments (from 1st
October onwards). Further, the bank has made provisions based on the new social security code. Non-
employee expenses were higher due to normalisation of business volumes, collection expenses and
investments in technology.
Other
No accounts were required to be restructured in the NBFC arm - Axis Finance. Axis Finance GNPA stood at
3.8%.
2 Axis Bank
Institutional Equities
Exhibit 1: Advances (Rsbn), Growth (YoY, %) Exhibit 2: Advances mix (%)
7,000 18.0 100%
12.9 13.2 13.1 13.3 12.4 11.8 11.2 10.8 10.2 10.5 11.0
5,764 5,828 16.0 90%
6,000 5,501 5,714 5,613
5,216 80%
4,751 4,948 4,973 14.0
5,000 4,411 4,561 35.7 36.6 36.5 34.5
12.0 70% 39.1 38.2 38.0 37.1 35.7 35.9 35.8
4,000 60%
10.0
50%
3,000 8.0
40%
6.0 30%
2,000
4.0 48.0 48.6 48.9 49.7 51.9 52.4 53.0 53.4 53.2 53.0 54.6
20%
1,000 2.0 10%
0 0.0 0%
Q1FY19
Q2FY19
Q3FY19
Q4FY19
Q1FY20
Q2FY20
Q3FY20
Q4FY20
Q1FY21
Q2FY21
Q3FY21
Q1FY19
Q2FY19
Q3FY19
Q4FY19
Q1FY20
Q2FY20
Q3FY20
Q4FY20
Q1FY21
Q2FY21
Q3FY21
Advances (Rsbn) Growth (yoy, %) Retail Corporate SME
Source: Company, Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities Research Source: Company, Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities Research
4,797
5,141
5,485
5,407
5,840
5,917
6,401
6,282
6,355
6,541
1,000
0 0.0 10.0
Q2FY20
Q1FY19
Q2FY19
Q3FY19
Q4FY19
Q1FY20
Q3FY20
Q4FY20
Q1FY21
Q2FY21
Q3FY21
0.0
Q1FY19
Q2FY19
Q3FY19
Q4FY19
Q1FY20
Q2FY20
Q3FY20
Q4FY20
Q1FY21
Q2FY21
Q3FY21
Deposits (Rsbn) Growth (yoy, %)
Source: Company, Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities Research Source: Company, Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities Research
Exhibit 5: Corporate book mix (%) Exhibit 6: Retail book mix (%)
100% 100%
90% 13.0 13.0 12.0 11.0 12.0 12.0 13.0 13.0 12.0 12.0 13.0
90%
32.0 80% 8.0 9.0 8.0 9.0 8.0 9.0 9.0 9.0 9.0 9.0 9.0
80% 40.0 38.0 37.0 38.0 38.0
70% 14.0 15.0 16.0 17.0 17.0 17.0 17.0 18.0 18.0 18.0 17.0
70%
60% 11.0 11.0 11.0 11.0 12.0
60% 12.0 13.0 13.0 13.0 13.0 13.0
50% 14.0 13.0 14.0 14.0 13.0
50% 13.0 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.0
40%
40% 30%
68.0 63.0
30% 60.0 62.0 62.0 62.0 20% 40.0 39.0 39.0 38.0 38.0 37.0 36.0 35.0 36.0 36.0 36.0
20% 10%
10% 0%
Q1FY19
Q2FY19
Q3FY19
Q4FY19
Q1FY20
Q2FY20
Q3FY20
Q4FY20
Q1FY21
Q2FY21
Q3FY21
0%
Q2FY20 Q3FY20 Q4FY20 Q1FY21 Q2FY21 Q3FY21
Term loans Working capital loans Housing Rural Auto PL/CC LAP Non-schematic loans
Source: Company, Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities Research Source: Company, Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities Research
3 Axis Bank
Institutional Equities
Exhibit 7: Key P&L metrics (%) Exhibit 8: Asset quality metrics (%)
4.0 60.0 7.0 6.5 90.0
6.0 5.8
3.5 6.0 80.0
50.0 5.3 5.3 5.0 5.0 4.9 70.0
3.0 4.7
5.0
40.0 4.2 60.0
2.5
4.0 3.4 50.0
2.0 30.0 3.1
3.0 2.5 2.4 40.0
1.5 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.1
20.0 30.0
2.0 1.6
1.0 1.2 20.0
1.0
10.0 0.7
0.5 1.0 10.0
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Q2FY19
Q1FY19
Q2FY19
Q3FY19
Q4FY19
Q1FY20
Q2FY20
Q3FY20
Q4FY20
Q1FY21
Q2FY21
Q3FY21
Q1FY19
Q3FY19
Q4FY19
Q1FY20
Q2FY20
Q3FY20
Q4FY20
Q1FY21
Q2FY21
Q3FY21
NIM (%) (reported) Credit cost (annualized) (%) C/I (%) GNPA (%) NNPA (%) PCR (%)
Source: Company, Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities Research Source: Company, Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities Research
4 Axis Bank
Institutional Equities
Exhibit 9: Financial summary
Y/E March (Rsmn) FY19 FY20 FY21E FY22E FY23E
Net interest income 2,17,082 2,52,062 2,89,439 3,33,303 3,78,002
Pre-provisioning operating profit 1,90,051 2,34,381 2,47,654 2,91,833 3,35,002
PAT 46,766 16,272 60,410 1,26,357 1,64,024
EPS (Rs) 18.2 5.8 19.7 41.3 53.6
BV (Rs) 259 301 327 360 403
P/E (x) 34.7 109.6 32.0 15.3 11.8
P/BV (x) 2.4 2.1 1.9 1.8 1.6
Gross NPAs (%) 5.8 5.1 5.2 4.7 4.2
Net NPAs (%) 2.3 1.6 1.2 0.9 0.7
RoA (%) 0.6 0.2 0.6 1.2 1.4
RoE (%) 7.2 2.1 6.5 12.0 14.0
Source: Company, Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities Research
3.00
2.50
2.00
1.50
1.00
0.50
Jan-15
Jan-17
Jan-19
Jan-21
Jan-12
Jan-13
Jan-14
Jan-16
Jan-18
Jan-20
Jul-11
Jul-12
Jul-13
Jul-14
Jul-15
Jul-16
Jul-17
Jul-18
Jul-19
Jul-20
P/BVPS Mean +1 SD -1 SD +2 SD -2 SD
5 Axis Bank
Institutional Equities
Financials
Exhibit 13: Income statement Exhibit 14: Key ratios
Y/E March (Rsmn) FY19 FY20 FY21E FY22E FY23E Y/E March FY19 FY20 FY21E FY22E FY23E
Interest Income 5,49,858 6,26,352 6,43,766 7,24,012 8,21,664 Growth (%)
Interest expense 3,32,776 3,74,290 3,54,327 3,90,709 4,43,662 NII growth 16.6 16.1 14.8 15.2 13.4
Net interest income 2,17,082 2,52,062 2,89,439 3,33,303 3,78,002 Pre-provision profit growth 21.9 23.3 5.7 17.8 14.8
Fees & Other Income 1,31,303 1,55,366 1,34,052 1,54,275 1,74,923 PAT growth 1,596.4 (65.2) 271.2 109.2 29.8
Net Revenue 3,48,385 4,07,428 4,23,491 4,87,578 5,52,925 Business (%)
Operating Expense 1,58,334 1,73,046 1,75,836 1,95,745 2,17,923 Deposit growth 20.9 16.7 12.0 15.0 16.0
-Employee Exp 47,473 53,210 59,595 65,555 72,110 Advance growth 12.5 15.5 8.0 12.0 16.0
-Other Exp 1,10,861 1,19,836 1,16,241 1,30,190 1,45,813 Business growth 16.8 16.1 10.1 13.6 16.0
Pre-Provisioning CD 90.2 89.3 86.1 83.8 83.8
1,90,051 2,34,381 2,47,654 2,91,833 3,35,002
Operating Profit
CASA 44.4 41.2 40.2 40.2 40.2
Provisions 1,20,310 1,85,339 1,66,924 1,22,974 1,15,806
Operating efficiency (%)
-Loan Loss Provisions 1,02,215 1,27,555 1,28,200 83,062 73,996
Cost-to-income 45.4 42.5 41.5 40.1 39.4
-Investment Depreciation 3,000 1,360 3,575 4,316 4,795
Cost-to-assets 2.1 2.0 1.8 1.8 1.8
-Other Provisions 15,095 56,424 35,150 35,597 37,015
Spreads (%)
PBT 69,741 49,042 80,730 1,68,859 2,19,196
Yield on advances 8.8 9.1 8.2 8.3 8.3
Taxes 22,975 32,770 20,320 42,502 55,172
Yield on investments 6.9 6.8 7.0 7.0 7.0
PAT 46,766 16,272 60,410 1,26,357 1,64,024
Cost of deposits 4.7 4.9 4.2 4.2 4.2
Source: Company, Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities Research
Yield on assets 8.4 8.7 8.1 8.0 8.0
Cost of funds 5.1 5.0 4.3 4.3 4.3
NIMs 3.3 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.7
Exhibit 15: Balance sheet
Capital adequacy (%)
Y/E March (Rsmn) FY19 FY20 FY21E FY22E FY23E
Tier I 12.5 14.5 15.1 14.8 14.6
Equity Capital 5,143 5,643 6,120 6,120 6,120
Tier II 3.3 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0
Reserves & Surplus 6,61,620 8,43,835 9,94,707 10,95,793 12,27,013
Total CAR 15.8 17.5 18.1 17.8 17.6
Shareholder's Funds 6,66,763 8,49,478 10,00,827 11,01,913 12,33,132
Asset Quality (%)
Deposits 54,84,713 64,01,049 71,69,175 82,44,552 95,63,680
Gross NPA 5.8 5.1 5.2 4.7 4.2
Borrowings 15,27,758 14,79,541 13,31,587 13,58,219 14,39,712
Net NPA 2.3 1.6 1.2 0.9 0.7
Other liabilities 3,30,731 4,21,579 4,96,999 5,76,032 6,10,104
Provision coverage 61.6 68.8 77.8 81.1 82.8
Total liabilities 80,09,965 91,51,648 99,98,588 1,12,80,715 1,28,46,628
Slippage 3.3 4.1 2.9 2.3 2.0
Cash/Equivalent 6,72,046 9,72,683 8,14,296 9,36,441 10,86,271
Credit-cost 1.9 2.7 2.2 1.4 1.2
Advances 49,47,980 57,14,242 61,71,381 69,11,947 80,17,858
Return (%)
Investments 17,49,693 15,67,343 20,07,369 23,08,474 24,86,557
ROE 7.2 2.1 6.5 12.0 14.0
Fixed Assets 40,366 43,129 48,780 52,280 55,780
ROA 0.6 0.2 0.6 1.2 1.4
Other assets 5,99,880 8,54,252 9,56,762 10,71,573 12,00,162
RORWA 0.9 0.3 1.0 1.8 2.1
Total assets 80,09,965 91,51,648 99,98,588 1,12,80,715 1,28,46,628
Per share
Source: Company, Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities Research EPS 18.2 5.8 19.7 41.3 53.6
BV 259.3 301.1 327.1 360.1 403.0
ABV 214.9 267.8 302.7 339.1 383.6
Valuation
P/E 34.7 109.6 32.0 15.3 11.8
P/BV 2.4 2.1 1.9 1.8 1.6
P/ABV 2.9 2.4 2.1 1.9 1.6
Source: Company, Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities Research
6 Axis Bank
Institutional Equities
Rating track
Date Rating Market price (Rs) Target price (Rs)
23 July 2014 Buy 404 472
20 October 2014 Buy 403 490
8 January 2015 Accumulate 502 490
19 January 2015 Accumulate 515 550
30 April 2015 Accumulate 559 590
27 July 2015 Accumulate 581 590
28 October 2015 Accumulate 518 575
21 January 2016 Accumulate 392 435
27 April 2016 Accumulate 478 470
25 July 2016 Accumulate 537 525
26 October 2016 Accumulate 530 510
20 January 2017 Accumulate 481 490
14 February 2017 Accumulate 491 530
27 April 2017 Accumulate 516 515
26 July 2017 Accumulate 545 515
18 October 2017 Accumulate 513 525
23 January 2018 Accumulate 611 671
27 April 2018 Accumulate 495 473
31 July 2018 Accumulate 570 556
9 October 2018 Accumulate 557 604
5 November 2018 Accumulate 611 667
13 December 2018 Buy 609 761
30 January 2019 Buy 661 762
25 March 2019 Accumulate 749 819
8 April 2019 Accumulate 762 819
26 April 2019 Accumulate 741 818
8 July 2019 Accumulate 806 806
31 July 2019 Accumulate 708 786
7 October 2019 Accumulate 656 727
23 October 2019 Accumulate 713 725
8 January 2020 Accumulate 725 717
23 January 2020 Accumulate 713 716
27 March 2020 Buy 362 522
9 April 2020 Buy 391 522
29 April 2020 Buy 456 527
9 July 2020 Buy 444 527
22 July 2020 Buy 445 513
23 September 2020 Buy 413 549
7 October 2020 Buy 450 545
29 October 2020 Buy 506 606
26 November 2020 Accumulate 600 660
08 January 2021 Accumulate 671 720
28 January 2021 Accumulate 632 706
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
Feb-15
Feb-18
Feb-20
Apr-14
Apr-16
Oct-18
Apr-19
Dec-14
Nov-15
Dec-16
Nov-17
Dec-19
Nov-20
Sep-14
Aug-15
Sep-16
Aug-17
Sep-19
Aug-20
Jun-14
Jan-16
Jun-17
Jan-19
Jun-19
Jan-21
May-15
May-18
May-20
Jul-16
Jul-18
Mar-17
7 Axis Bank
Institutional Equities
DISCLOSURES
This Report is published by Nirmal Bang Equities Private Limited (hereinafter referred to as “NBEPL”) for private circulation. NBEPL is a registered
Research Analyst under SEBI (Research Analyst) Regulations, 2014 having Registration no. INH000001436. NBEPL is also a registered Stock
Broker with National Stock Exchange of India Limited and BSE Limited in cash and derivatives segments.
NBEPL has other business divisions with independent research teams separated by Chinese walls, and therefore may, at times, have different or
contrary views on stocks and markets.
NBEPL or its associates have not been debarred / suspended by SEBI or any other regulatory authority for accessing / dealing in securities Market.
NBEPL, its associates or analyst or his relatives do not hold any financial interest in the subject company. NBEPL or its associates or Analyst do not
have any conflict or material conflict of interest at the time of publication of the research report with the subject company. NBEPL or its associates or
Analyst or his relatives do not hold beneficial ownership of 1% or more in the subject company at the end of the month immediately preceding the
date of publication of this research report.
NBEPL or its associates / analyst has not received any compensation / managed or co-managed public offering of securities of the company covered
by Analyst during the past twelve months. NBEPL or its associates have not received any compensation or other benefits from the company covered
by Analyst or third party in connection with the research report. Analyst has not served as an officer, director or employee of Subject Company and
NBEPL / analyst has not been engaged in market making activity of the subject company.
Analyst Certification:We,Raghav Garg, research analystand Arjun Bagga, research associate, and the authors of this report, hereby certify that the
views expressed in this research report accurately reflects our personal views about the subject securities, issuers, products, sectors or industries. It
is also certified that no part of the compensation of the analysts was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the inclusion of specific
recommendations or views in this research. The analysts are principally responsible for the preparation of this research report and have taken
reasonable care to achieve and maintain independence and objectivity in making any recommendations.
8 Axis Bank
Institutional Equities
Disclaimer
Stock Ratings Absolute Returns
BUY > 15%
ACCUMULATE -5% to15%
SELL < -5%
This report is for the personal information of the authorized recipient and does not construe to be any investment, legal or taxation advice to you. NBEPL
is not soliciting any action based upon it. Nothing in this research shall be construed as a solicitation to buy or sell any security or product, or to
engage in or refrain from engaging in any such transaction. In preparing this research, we did not take into account the investment objectives,
financial situation and particular needs of the reader.
This research has been prepared for the general use of the clients of NBEPL and must not be copied, either in whole or in part, or distributed or
redistributed to any other person in any form. If you are not the intended recipient you must not use or disclose the information in this research in any
way. Though disseminated to all the customers simultaneously, not all customers may receive this report at the same time. NBEPL will not treat recipients
as customers by virtue of their receiving this report. This report is not directed or intended for distribution to or use by any person or entity resident in
a state, country or any jurisdiction, where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law, reg ulation or which would
subject NBEPL & its group companies to registration or licensing requirements within such jurisdictions.
The report is based on the information obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not make any representation or warranty that it is
accurate, complete or up-to-date and it should not be relied upon as such. We accept no obligation to correct or update the information or opinions in it.
NBEPL or any of its affiliates or employees shall not be in any way responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person from any inadvertent
error in the information contained in this report. NBEPL or any of its affiliates or employees do not provide, at any time, any express or implied warranty of
any kind, regarding any matter pertaining to this report, including without limitation the implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular
purpose, and non-infringement. The recipients of this report should rely on their own investigations.
This information is subject to change without any prior notice. NBEPL reserves its absolute discretion and right to make or refrain from making
modifications and alterations to this statement from time to time. Nevertheless, NBEPL is committed to providing independent and transparent
recommendations to its clients, and would be happy to provide information in response to specific client queries.
Before making an investment decision on the basis of this research, the reader needs to consider, with or without the assistance of an adviser, whether
the advice is appropriate in light of their particular investment needs, objectives and financial circumstances. There are risks involved in securities
trading. The price of securities can and does fluctuate, and an individual security may even become valueless. International investors are reminded of the
additional risks inherent in international investments, such as currency fluctuations and international stock market or economic conditions, which may
adversely affect the value of the investment. Opinions expressed are subject to change without any notice. Neither the company nor the director or the
employees of NBEPL accept any liability whatsoever for any direct, indirect, consequential or other loss arising from any use of this research and/or
further communication in relation to this research. Here it may be noted that neither NBEPL, nor its directors, employees, agents or representatives shall be
liable for any damages whether direct or indirect, incidental, special or consequential including lost revenue or lost profit that may arise from or in
connection with the use of the information contained in this report.
Copyright of this document vests exclusively with NBEPL.
Our reports are also available on our website www.nirmalbang.com
Team Details:
Name Email Id Direct Line
Rahul Arora CEO rahul.arora@nirmalbang.com -
Dealing
Ravi Jagtiani Dealing Desk ravi.jagtiani@nirmalbang.com +91 22 6273 8230, +91 22 6636 8833
Michael Pillai Dealing Desk michael.pillai@nirmalbang.com +91 22 6273 8102/8103, +91 22 6636 8830
9 Axis Bank