JIGJIGA

UNIVERSITY

SCHOOL OF GRADUATE STUDIES

Disaster Risk Management and Sustainable Development Program

The Role of Early Warning System on Adverse effect of Drought in

Pastoral Household in Denan Woreda, Ethiopia Somali Regional State,

M.A. Research Proposal

By

Abdifatah Mohamed Heybaan

Major Advisor: KindeGabayehu (PhD)

January, 2018
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 Jigjiga, Ethiopia

Abbreviations
CSA Central Statistical Agency

CBO Community Based Organization

DFID Department for International Development

DPPB Disaster Prevention Preparedness Bureau

DPPC Disaster Prevention Preparedness Commission

EWS Early Warning System

DEWS Drought Early Warning System

UN/ISDR United Nation International Strategy Disaster Reduction

FAO Food and Agriculture Organization

FEWSNET Famine Early Warning System Net Work

FGDs Focus Group Discussions

IPCC Inter-Governmental Panel of Climate Change

NMA National Meteorological Agency

PFE Pastoralist Forum of Ethiopia

PKs Pastoral Keeble’s

SPSS Statistical package for social science

SRS Somali Regional State

SSA Sub-Saharan African

UNDP United Nations Development Program

UNEP United Nations Environment Program

UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change

WB World Bank

GHA Greater Horn of Africa

WMO World Meteorological Organization

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 Table of Contents
Abbreviations............................................................................................................................................................................2
CHAPTER ONE........................................................................................................................................................................5
1. INTRODUCTION................................................................................................................................................................. 5
1.1 Background of the Study.................................................................................................................................................5
1.2 STATEMENT OF THE PROBLEM...............................................................................................................................8
1.3. Objective of The Study...................................................................................................................................................8
1.3.1. General Objective....................................................................................................................................................8
1.3.2 Specific Objectives....................................................................................................................................................9
1.4 Research Questions..........................................................................................................................................................9
1.5 Significance of the Research............................................................................................................................................9
1.6 Scope of the study............................................................................................................................................................9
1.7 Operational Definition...................................................................................................................................................10
1.7.1 Key Terms..............................................................................................................................................................10
CHAPTER TWO..................................................................................................................................................................... 12
2. Literature Review............................................................................................................................................................12
2.1 Early Warning System...................................................................................................................................................12
2.2 Types of early warning systems.....................................................................................................................................14
2.2.1 Global and national early warning systems............................................................................................................14
2.2.2 Community-based early warning systems...............................................................................................................15
2.3 Indigenous knowledge of traditional early warning.......................................................................................................16
2.3.1 Change in sheep mating calendar...........................................................................................................................16
2.4 DROUGHT EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS (DEWS)................................................................................................17
2.5 Pastoral Community Livelihood....................................................................................................................................18
CHAPTER THREE.................................................................................................................................................................. 19
3.METHODOLOGY................................................................................................................................................................ 19
3.1 Description of the study Area........................................................................................................................................19
3.1.2 Overview of Ethiopian Somali Regional (State ESRS)............................................................................................19
3.1.3 Climate of the Study Area.......................................................................................................................................20
3.1.4 Location Of the study Area.....................................................................................................................................21
3.1.5 Livestock Production..............................................................................................................................................21
3.2 Research Design............................................................................................................................................................22
3.3 Data types and sources...................................................................................................................................................22
3.3.1 Primary data...........................................................................................................................................................23
3.3.2 Secondary data.......................................................................................................................................................23
3.4 Sampling Design and Sample size.................................................................................................................................24
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 3.5. Methods of data collection............................................................................................................................................25
3.5.1 Household Survey...................................................................................................................................................25
3.5.2 Key informants and focus group discussion............................................................................................................25
3.5.3 Field Observation...................................................................................................................................................26
3.6 Method of data analysis.................................................................................................................................................26
CHAPTER FOUR.................................................................................................................................................................... 27
4. PLAN OF ACTION AND LOGISTICS................................................................................................................................27
4.1. Work plan..................................................................................................................................................................... 27
Table 2:- showing activity plan........................................................................................................................................27
4.2 Detail Budget Cost Breakdown......................................................................................................................................28
Table 3:- showing budget cost breakdown.......................................................................................................................28

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CHAPTER ONE

1. INTRODUCTION

1.1 Background of the Study

TheuseofEarly Warning System (EWS)isimportantintheenhancement ofdrought prevention.TheHyogoFramework
ofAction (HFA) underprioritynumbertwo (2) stressestheneed for identifying,
assessing andmonitoringdisasterrisksandenhancingearlywarnings.InvestinginEWisnotsimplenoris it
cheapbut,inthelongrun,thesavings accrued byinvesting inEWcanfaroutweigh theinvestment(UNI/ISDR,2006b).
Drought Early Warning System A provision of timely and effective information, throughidentified institutions,
that allows individuals exposed to a hazard to take action to avoid or reduce their risk and prepare for effective
response-A practical tool for implementing timely and appropriate responses to droughts and famine in the form
of food aid and other mitigation strategic Early warning involves forecasts based on climate projections and the
area’s drought history, possible outcomes of developing drought events, and answering questions about how long
a drought might last and how severe it might be. Effective early warning systems should involve both technology
and all interested parties in drought planning and response. (UN/ISDR 2010)
Theearlywarningsystemiscurrentlycentralizedandone
way:itinvolvesissuingofwarningbutneglectingornottakingcognizanceof theneedsand
prioritiesofvulnerablecommunities. Thus,thewarningsarenotresponsivetothepeople’s needs.
Pastoralism and pastoral production systems support 100–200 million people globally and cover 41% of the Earth
surface. In East Africa and by extension, the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA), pastoralism is one of the most
important economic activities from which millions of people derive their livelihoods. Pastoralists in this region
keep a significant part of their wealth in form of livestock. For example, out of the total population, pastoral and
agro-pastoral populations are about 60% in Somalia; 33% in Eritrea; 25% in Djibouti; 20% in Sudan and 12-15%
in Ethiopia (Coppock, 2005) and quoted in (Ahmed et al., 2001).
However, this livelihood system commonly has evolved in dry land areas of the planet, which constitute some of
the harshest and remotest places on earth (Oxfam, 2002).

Drought has been a frequent phenomenon in these pastoral areas in recent years and is one of the most inhibiting
factors in pastoral and agro-pastoral production systems in Africa.Africa is especially susceptible to land
degradation and bears the greatest impact of drought and desertification. Drought and desertification are at the
core of serious challenges and threats facing sustainable development in Africa. These problems have far reaching
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adverse impacts on human health, food security, economic activity, physical infrastructure, natural resources and
the environment, and national and global security. Drought is one of the most important climate-related disasters
in Africa. Climate change is set to exacerbate occurrence of climate related disasters including drought. Current
climate scenarios predict that the driest regions of the world will become even drier, (UNESCO, 2006) signaling a
risk of persistence of drought in many parts of Africa (arid, semi-arid and dry sub humid areas) which will
therefore bear greater and sustained negative impacts (UNEASC, 2007).

The Ethiopian Somali National Regional State (ESNRS), with a population of around 5 million, depends very
heavily on natural rains. Nearly 85% of the people living in this regional state are pastoralists and subsist through
herding of livestock. For more than 30 months’ rain has been poor and intermittent, placing the herds in danger
and diminishing the resources of a population who have only limited coping mechanisms in the best of times.
Because of erratic rainfall and poor pasture most of the pastoral people and their herds are now moving long
distances in search of grazing (DPPA 2007). In 1999–2000 and again in 2004, Somali Region in southeastern
Ethiopia was struck by severe droughts that resulted in numerous deaths of people and livestock, as well as the
destitution and displacement of many pastoralist families.

A more fundamental question, however, is whether the adaptation mechanisms that pastoralists have evolved in
response to the predictable threat of drought are collapsing, and what factors are increasing their livelihood
vulnerability (Stephen, 2006)

Somali Regional State (SRS) is one of the nine states that make up the federal democratic republic. It is located in
the south eastern part of Ethiopia bordering Kenya, Somalia, and Djibouti. It consists of eleven administrative
zones and 93 woredas (or districts). The region is geographically the second largest regional state in Ethiopia.
Somali region is one of the wealthiest states in terms of natural resource endowments, with three all-seasonal
rivers flowing through it and huge fertile land; it has the largest livestock resource compared to any other region in
the country as well as potential for fossil fuel and mineral deposits. Paradoxically, it is one of the least developed
sate with a high proportion of its population being poor and frequently faced with high food insecurity (Salayman,
2011).

Pastoralism is the foundation of the local economy and the basis for the attainment of livelihoods for an
overwhelming part of the population of the region. Rainfall is often insufficient and erratic in nature, and this
limits both the potential for livestock and crop production. Continuous degradation of environmental resources
worsened by consecutive droughts has diminished available pastoral resources in many areas of the Somali Region
(Salayman, OWDA 2011). As a result of these difficulties, the poor households in the region are therefore
frequently unable to meet their basic food requirements and often need humanitarian assistance (SCUK/DPPB
livelihood baseline studies 2004/05).
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Denan Woreda is known for recurring drought that makes access one of the major livelihood concern, for human
consumption (drinking, cooking, washing), livestock consumption (watering animals), and crop production.
Farming and livestock rearing are considered the key local economy and basis for attainment of livelihoods.
Shortage and erratic rainfall affect the overall livelihood of the pastoral and agro-pastoral communities living
defectively in Denan. Relevant studies related to drought and its impact and policy interventions had been found to
be poor and still community is suffering from drought and related hazards. No studies on the local and indigenous
of drought early warning system had conducted in the district while leaving aside the fading pastoralist drought
adaptation and why they are declining. Therefore, this study will thuslookintotherole of early warning system on
adverse effect of drought in pastoral community of Denan woreda

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1.2 STATEMENT OF THE PROBLEM
AlthoughEthiopia has different institutions that works early warning system like Disaster
Prevention Preparedness Commission DPPC at federal level and Disaster Prevention
Preparedness Bureaus DPPB in the regions respectively but there is no effective early
warning system in the country (USAID 2015)

Due to that I will try to see the role of early warning system on adverse effect of drought in
the pastoral community Denan Woreda. which has faced different drought and has known
for recurring drought.

Pastoralism is one of the major livelihood concern, for human consumption (drinking,
cooking, washing), livestock consumption (watering animals), and livestock rearing are
considered the key local economy and basis for attainment of livelihoods. Shortage and
erratic rainfall affect the overall livelihood of the pastoral communities living defectively in
Denan. Relevant studies related to the role of early warning system on drought and its
adverse effect on pastoral community.

No studies recorded on the local and indigenous knowledge of drought early warning system
pastoralist Adverse effect of drought and their role of early warning system and drought
adaptation and why they are declining. Therefore, this study will then have confined to
document the drought history, characteristics, socio economic effect and will focus on
exploring trends and effectiveness of the Denan woreda their role of early warning system on
adverse effect of drought in pastoral community.

1.3. Objective of The Study

1.3.1. General Objective

The overall objective of the study is to assess the role early warning system in adverse effect
on drought in Denan woreda.

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1.3.2 Specific Objectives

To identify local indigenous knowledge of early warning system.

To Analyze the adverse effect of drought on pastoral household
To explore the role of institution to strengthen early warning system.

1.4 Research Questions

1. What are the local indigenous knowledge of early warning system?

2. what is the role of early warning system to the adverse effect of drought on pastoral house
hold?

3. How is the role of institution to strengthen early warning system?

1.5 Significance of the Research

The results of this study will expect to inform adaptation policy decisions, contribute to the
understanding the role of early warning system on adverse effect on pastoral community as
well as inform effort of local, regional and national government and NGOs both national and
international organizations focusing on adaptation to climate change on the measures suitable
to better adapt local pastoralists to the hazard of drought. In addition, pastoralists’ perception
on policy of early warning system on adverse effect on the pastoral community will be
assessed.

1.6 Scope of the study

The study will be conducted to assess the role of early warning system on adverse effect of
drought in pastoral community in Denan woreda. The study will cover only the 4 Pastoral
Kebeles of Denan woreda. Furthermore, the study will also focus on the identification of
challenges of early warning system on adverse effect of drought in particularly pastoral
community of the woreda for their indigenous knowledge of early warning and how they
adopt the drought.

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1.7 Operational Definition

1.7.1 Key Terms

Hazard:isarareorextremeeventinanaturalorman-madeenvironment thatadversely
affectshumanlife,propertyorlivelihoods.

Preparedness: -istheabilitytopredict,respondto andcopewiththeeffectsofadisaster.

Vulnerability: referstotheextenttowhichanindividual,household,communityorareamay
beadverselyaffectedby a disaster.

Early warning: -is “the provision of timely and effective information, through identified
institutions, that allows individuals exposed to hazard to take action to avoid or reduce their
risk and prepare for effective response”

Risk:is theexpectedloss to a community when a hazard event occurs. This normally

includesliveslost,peopleinjured,propertydamagedandthelivelihoods disrupted.

Disaster: is “ asuddenevent,suchasanaccidentor
naturalcatastrophethatcausesgreatdamageor lossoflife”.

Preparedness - This concept implies “planning how to respond in case a drought occurs and
working to increase resources available to respond effectively”. The rationale behind this
arrangement is to save lives and minimize damage by preparing people to respond
appropriately when a drought is imminent.

Mitigation – These are activities, which eliminate or reduce the chances of occurrence or
effects of a drought. This approach is based on the idea that much can be done to prevent
droughts from happening or reduce their impact.

Relief - The concept applies to “activities that occur during and immediately following a
drought”. Through proper response, emergency assistance to victims of the drought is,
provided.

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Reconstruction – This continues until all systems return to or are near normal. Short-term
recovery returns vital life support systems to minimum operating standards. Long-term
recovery may go on for years until the entire drought affected area is completely restored.

Mitigation: -aremeasurestakeninadvanceofadisasteraimedatreducingitsimpactonsociety
andtheenvironment.

Drought is an outcome of the reduction of precipitation received over an extended temporal

scope, which can be one season or more

Pastoralismis the branch of agriculture concerned with the raising of livestock. It is animal
husbandry: the care, tending and use of animals such as camels, goats, cattle, sheep and
donkey. "Pastoralism" generally has a mobile aspect; moving the herds in search of fresh
pastures and water.

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 CHAPTER TWO

2. Literature Review

2.1 Early Warning System

Thereisnouniversally agreed definition of EWS however different scholars, Academic

institutions, UN and NGO has defined differently.

According to the United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction, UNISDR
effective early warning systems do not only need strong technical foundations and good
understanding of the risks, but would also be people centered. The systems should have clear
message dissemination systems that touch those at risk and responses by risk managers and
the public. (UNISDR 2009)

According to the United Nations’ International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (ISDR).Early
warning (EW) is “the provision of timely and effective information, through identified
institutions, that allows individuals exposed to hazard to take action to avoid or reduce their
risk and prepare for effective response” United Nations’ International Strategy for Disaster
Reduction (ISDR2009).

Early warning system has different definitions used by different institutions and scholars.
According to the united nation international strategy for disaster reduction (2009) defined
early warning system are set of capabilities required to produce and disseminate timely and
meaning full warning information to qualify individuals communities endangered by hazard
to make and act properly and sufficient time to decrease the possibility of harm or loss.in this
definition early warning system is focusing to the people who are endangered by the hazard
rather than organizations working with the effected people. This definition also emphasizes
the use of current structures, which may be structures with the communities These structures
can be used for the distribution of facts about a disaster or the mitigation measures. The
source of the warning is not specified. We are of the opinion that the affected community
Would be capable to identify the indicators for imminent hazards so that they can make for
mitigation. This does not, though, suggest that they would have the ability to deal with the

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hazard. The warning would permit them time to rally funds and support from external, if
prerequisite be. In the definitions the word ‘early’ is relative depending on the type of
disaster, the community affected and the existing resources to deal with the disaster.

According to the Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies, (IFRC), (2013), ‘early’
signifies prior to the coming of a hazard or danger, while there is still time to decrease the
potential harm or loss or prevent a disaster. The concept of how early depends on the degree
of preparedness of the people affected by a disaster and the presence of the capability to
respond to the disaster. It also depends on the type of disaster, which defines the amount of
time required to take protective action. The IFRC defines a warning as the message that
announces the imminent danger and a system as an ordered and standardized collecting of
components that remain in constant fluctuation with movement in multiple instructions. In the
context of community-based early warning systems, a community exemplifies a network of
social collaboration that may be exposed to multiple social and or physical impacts from one
or more hazards or threats often related by place (IFRC 2013). Neither the United Nations
International Strategy for Disaster Reduction, nor the IFRC definition of a community-based
early warning system includes a requirement or mention of who initiates the warning under
such systems. Community-based may mean that the system is at the community level but
implemented by outsiders. The degree of involvement or participation of the affected
communities is also absent in the definitions. Thus, the term ‘community-based’ has a wide
range of meaning.

According to McLeroy et al. (2003), community-based schemes may refer to community as

the background for interventions, the target for interventions, or the resource or agent of
interventions. Community-based early warning systems can be referred to as people
managed, local or community centered, According UNISDR (2009). Defines a community-
based early warning system as one in which the communities’ involvement in hazard
identification and the formulation of the warning system, and not merely countering to a
warning at local level. Glantz (2009) defines that an early warning system is made up of
many constituents and is not only the formulation or issuance of a warning. A holistic early
warning system includes the formulation of the warning, the issuance of the warning, the

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reception and response to the warning and feedback to those who developed and issued the
warning.

2.2 Types of early warning systems

2.2.1 Global and national early warning systems

Early warning systems exist at different levels such as the global, national and local levels.
The levels are determined by the magnitude of the problems and the capacities of the various
levels to address them. Successful early warning systems have been developed for the
agricultural sector and include the USAID’s Famine Early Warning System (FEWS), SADC
Food Security Program (/REWU), FAO Global Information and Early Warning System
(GIEWS) on Food and Agriculture, FAO Food Insecurity and Vulnerability Information and
Mapping Systems (FIVIMS) and World Food Programme (WFP) Vulnerability Analysis and
Mapping (VAM). All these systems are developed at global level and communicated down to
the regions and countries concerned until the warnings reach the affected populations.
Nevertheless, the ordinary farmer in a village may not get some warnings unless he listens to
the radio or watches television. These early warning systems are necessary for communities
to understand regardless of their technological complexity. Thus, to be useful and relevant,
early warning systems must be designed to suit the populations and local settings.

Early warning systems are continually being created as new threats are being identified
(Glantz 2009). The early warning systems are, however, becoming complex because the
environment and societies are constantly changing. Meteorological services have used
advanced technologies in early warning systems to alert people about extreme weather
conditions. It should, however, be noted that before these technological advancements
existed, indigenous communities around the world had warning systems for similar events
and these early warning systems persist but are undocumented and threatened with extinction

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(Glantz 2009; Makwara 2013). The important aspect of any early warning system is that
governments, the media and the affected people are warned to take action and must be
receptive to the warning. The effectiveness of an early warning system, therefore, depends on
how the users of the system perceive its strengths and weaknesses as this will determine
whether the warning is accepted or not (Glantz 2009). Other factors, such as indigenous
knowledge systems, may negatively impact the acceptance of early warning systems, as was
documented in a study by the United Nations Environment Programme on indigenous
knowledge in disaster management in Africa. The study showed that some communities in
South Africa believe that hydrological hazards are released by specific deities in response to
human misbehaviour (UNEP 2008).

2.2.2 Community-based early warning systems

Contrary Internationally and national early warning system and community-based early
warning systems empower communities to prepare for and confront hazards. community-
based early warning systems that have been identified from literature include: pastoral
community-based early warning systems, flood and landslides warning systems, multi-hazard
early warning systems, avian influenza warning systems and early warning system and
mapping for an urban barangay. The majority of the community-based early warning systems
documented in literature are for floods and landslides (Gautam&Phaiju 2013; Lassa &Sagala
2013; Phaiju& Bhandari 2012; Vanloon 2010).

According save the children UK 2010 Report of experience of community based early
warning system in Afar and Somali regions of Ethiopia. that the Pastoral community of
Ethiopia has been challenging loses of livelihood Asset and surrounding environment in
which they settled for generations.in the reaction to these institutions governmental and
governmental actors ratified several methods to rehabilitate protect and promote livelihoods
from such loses. One of the methods are broadly believed was development of Early Warning
System(EWS) which have social capacity to organize for diverse information and early
warning indicators are cooperated with analytical tools that can combine multi-dimensional
information from several levels of community and administrative settings and lastly come up
with key messages that can be transferred into warning before hazard occurs on their

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livelihood asset. Despite of, governmental and non-governmental institutions and sectors
have progressed own styles (versions) of early warning system which entirely several terms
of approaches alteration items evaluated indicators, difficulties timeliness and suitability,
however save the children UK and its partner were among of the first innovators of early
warning system in Ethiopia and profiling in the pastoral areas was later adopted the entire
country.

2.3 Indigenous knowledge of traditional early warning

Somali elder use traditional early warning that they know for the unpredicted climate
variability and they use their indigenous knowledge that they have inherited for their
ancestors by generation to generation and using traditional early warning for centuries.

To decrease the adverse effects that often results from unpredictable and weather variables
patterns and pastoralist have developed for their own culturally rich early warning system
based on long term observation and accumulated old experience which is regarded as source
of inspiration facts and guidance and tool of decision making like rain for casting has been
developed as an art of among Somali pastoralist. This art had used by ancient Persian and
African astronomy. The Persian in heritage can steel found in the nayruus ceremony which is
celebrated with ignition of fire (literally Dabshid) and hanging a life branch/leaf at the
entrance of houses and still is major starting point for traditional weather forecasting.

The traditional Somali early warning known as xidaar literally someone warning against
someone ominous such as drought, tribal conflict or heralds something good such as rain also
they use terminology xidigiye literally astronomer this group were highly respect for their
prediction generally used to be precise. Local astrologers predict the probable course of
events and on the basis of the information generated pastoralists used to base their own
decision making related to their day to day life weather climatic rains and droughts or social
like migration, tribal warfare and marriage etc. (IngridHartmann and Ahmed j. 2009)

2.3.1 Change in sheep mating calendar

Always Somali pastoralists keep rams ewes apart throughout the year to control mating in
way that the ewes do not give birth to new born lambs in the dry season when the feeding

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resource will not be enough for the next generation Dambasame is the night when somali
nomads let loose the rams with the ewes for mating because it was about 150 days-the time
the sheep are pregnant-until the beginning of Gu rainsDambasame night occurs exactly 120
days following thedabshid (nouruz) which marks the 1st night of Somali tradition calendar
year. It is the night when in the middle of autumn November the moon is in conjunction with
the Urur/Pleiades on the 15th day of the lunar month or full moon. The Pleiades constellation
is very important for Somali nomads and is also known as Urur or laxo. while laxo means
also sheep so the mating time is determined by using the Urur /Pleiades as point of cue and
also as precursor for tracking the time period left until the rains will begin in spring (Lewis
1955)

2.4 DROUGHT EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS (DEWS)

DroughtmonitoringandEWaremajorcomponentsofdroughtriskmanagementwhosegoal is
toincrease the society’s coping capacity. This should result ingreater resilience and
reducedneedfordisasterassistance(WMO,2006).DEWScanbedescribedassystemsof
datacollectionto monitortheenvironmentandpeople’saccesstotheirwaterrequirements,
providetimelynoticesandelicitappropriateresponses(UN/ISDR,2003a).

A DEWS is designed to identify climate and water supply trends and thus detect the
emergence or probability of occurrence, onset, development, persistence, alleviation,
severityandtheendofadrought. Thisinformation canreducetheimpactsifdeliveredto concerned
stakeholders timely and inappropriate formats. However,mitigation measures
andpreparedness plansneedtobeputinplaceinordertominimizetheimpacts(Li,2000; Action
Aid,2006). Arelated aspect isthefamineearly warning, which istheprocess of
monitoringthesituationinareasknowntobeparticularlyvulnerabletotheeffectsofdrought,
cropfailuresorchangesin economicconditions,toenableremedialmeasurestobeinitiated
beforehardshipbecomesacute(Stephenson,1994).

ItisreiteratedthatdroughtisslowonsetinnatureandEWSmusthavethecapacitytodetect
theearlyemergenceofrainfalldeficiencies,whichis normallythebestindicatorofincipient
drought periods (UN/ISDR, 2002). It is necessary for effective DEWS to integrate
precipitation andotherclimaticparameters withwaterinformationsuchasstreamflowand
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soilmoisture into acomprehensive assessment of current andfuture drought and water
supplyconditions(WMO,2006).

2.5 Pastoral Community Livelihood

Livelihood: A livelihood comprises the capabilities, assets and activities required for a means
of living. A livelihood is sustainable when it can cope with and recover from stresses and
shocks and maintain or enhance its capabilities and assets both now and in the future, while
not undermining the natural resource base.”(DFID, 2000)

According to PFE et al. (2010), pastoralism is a livelihood system and way of life practiced
by people dwelling in arid and semi-arid environments, using mainly traditional knowledge to
optimize the interaction between humans, the environment and livestock. Pastoralists are
people who primarily derive their living from the management of livestock (sheep, goat,
camel and cattle) on rangelands.

Pastoralismis the branch of agriculture concerned with the raising of livestock. It is animal
husbandry: the care, tending and use of animals such as camels, goats, cattle, sheep and
donkey. "Pastoralism" generally has a mobile aspect; moving the herds in search of fresh
pastures and water. (Wikipedia)

The most commonly recognized and most frequently used economic definition of pastoralism
is the one given by Swift (1988). According to Swift, pastoral production systems are those
“in which at least 50 percent of the gross incomes of households (i.e. the value of market
production and the estimated value of subsistence production consumed by households) come
from pastoralism or its related activities, or else, where more than 15 percent of household’s
food energy consumption involves the milk or dairy products they produce.” The global
definition above reflects the characteristics of most Ethiopian pastoralists. Three types of
pastoralists are known in the region of East African(Nassef, 2009).
a. Sedentary pastoralistsare those who are involve keeping livestock near farms and villages
year-round
b. Semi-nomadic are those who move with their livestock over more or less regular routes
settling for a part of the year in one known home area.

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c. Nomadic those who move with their camel and transportable homes or shelters over
irregular routes seeking pasture and water. Hence, the study will focus this nomadic and semi
nomadic pastoralist types.

CHAPTER THREE

3.METHODOLOGY

3.1 Description of the study Area

3.1.2 Overview of Ethiopian Somali Regional (State ESRS)

The SRS is the second largest region of Ethiopia with an area of 327,000km2. The region is
located in the eastern part of the country. Agro-ecologically, it is categorized as arid (80%)
and semi-arid (20%). The average annual rainfall of the area ranges from 200-600mm. The
region has two rainy seasons (Gu- long rains from April to June and Deyr- short rains from
October to December) and two dry seasons (Jilaal- from January to March and Xagaa- July
to September) (Devereux, 2006). Rainfall condition in the region has been generally low,
unreliable and unevenly distributed (Wudie, 2006). In general, fragile ecology is expressed
with harsh climate, high and average temperature; with bimodal rainfall pattern. The arid
environmental condition coupled with high under development ranked the region as one of
most vulnerable regions of the country to the impacts of climate change .(Temesgen, et al.,
2008)

The research will be undertaken in Denan district, which is located 73km north of Gode. GPS
reading taken has shown the geographic coordinate (UTM) of 38 33375E and 07 2043N and
average elevation 434m.a.s.l. Denan district is one of the 9 Woredas in Shebelle
administrative Zone of Somali Regional state namely: Gode, Denan, Adadlay, Ferfer,
Mustahil, Kelafo, Ber’ano,Abakarow,Armale and East-Imay. The Woreda is located in the
southern part of the region and obviously bordered by Korahei zone in the East, Nogob Zone
in the North and Gode in the South, with the estimated distance of 1160 KM from Addis
Ababa, and 538 from Jigjiga.

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According to the CSA (2007) report, the zone has a total population of 353,551 with 105,000
km2 land mass of which 95% is grazing land and the remaining 5% is of arable land both
irrigated and rain fed. This arable land is equivalent to 5,250 km2 and only 20% of the arable
land is under cultivation (SC-UK 2001). Denan district is divided into 5 development centers
which are sub-divided in to 12 sub-centers, administrations (KA). According to the Woreda
officials, the total current woreda population is 66,478 of which 55.6% and 44.4% are male
and female respectively.

In Denan district, seasonal hand dug wells provide fairly dependable water sources but
salinity of the water gets deteriorated during dry season. There is also limited access to
sanitation facilities, which exposes the population to deadly water borne-diseases. The
recurrent water crises do critically affect children and women as the most vulnerable
members of the community. Livestock milk production has significantly decreased due to
poor rainfall. Besides being the main dietary source for pastoral children, milk is the major
source of household income and low yield seriously undermines the household purchasing
power. During crises, families are forced to sell most of the milk to cover the overall food
requirements. This contributes to a fast deterioration of the children nutritional status.

3.1.3 Climate of the Study Area

Climatically, the research area belongs to the semi-arid zone. The total annual rainfall ranges
from as low as below 250 to 300 mm or a little higher with a bimodal rainfall pattern and
erratic distribution. As per the records at the Jigjiga Weather Station, the long term (> 30
years; 1974-2005) average annual rainfall is 275 mm while the monthly mean and maximum
temperatures for the same period 27.3 and 29.0oC, respectively. There are four main seasons:
Dayr (wet season) and Jilaal (dry season), Gu (Wet season) and Haga (Dry season. Dayr
prolongs from Mid-October to late December whereas The Jilaal starts from January to April.
One the other hand, Gu normally starts on April to June while Jaga starts on July to

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September. Both rains are equally vital for cultivation and maturation of crops but
interchangeably one might be somewhat heavier than the other one.

3.1.4 Location of the study Area

Danan Woreda is located and bounded between816,645m to 700,101m8 1 6 , 6 4 5 m t o
North and 363,033m to 300,227m East The woreda is found in Shabele zone of the Somali
Regional State covering a total area of 4,289.30579 square Km

Danan woreda is bordered on the North Birkot Woreda, North West Garbo Woreda, South
direction Godey Woreda, West & South West Elweyne&Ber’ano Woreda and East Direction
Kebridahar and Shaygosh Woreda. Danan town, which is the woreda capital, is at a distance
from the regional capital Jijiga towards the South direction.

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3.1.4 Livestock Production
Denan district is a home for huge livestock and livestock owners. The main livestock reared
in the area are cattle, camels and shoats. In a normal year, pasture is regenerated with each set
of rains to make livestock feed available. This regeneration takes place within two weeks of
the onset of the rain. Thus, pasture is normally available from April - July and October-
December. Crop residues supplement this during the two key periods (JilaalandHagaa). The
first comes from the stalks of the short maturing maize crop (available from August-
September) and is given primarily to the milking cows and sheep. The second comes from the
crop residues from the second harvest. This is in two forms: (1) stocks, which are stored as
fodder during harvesting of main crops and (2) livestock are allowed to graze on what is
remained from the field after harvesting takes place. March is the most difficult month in
relation to pasture and fodder availability. During below normal year livestock migrate to
other grazing area (Mohamed 2010).In below normal year of rainfall, those households with
livestock will move to the closest grazing areas based on clan preferences. Thus, Majority of
the population residing in Denan area migrates to the Nogob, Sibi, and Hoswayne Valleys for
pasture and water. These pastoralists normally compete resources with the hosting pastoralists
residing in the migrated area. In more severe situations, movement targets to the Southeast
and across the border into Somalia. Generally, the young and lactating animals do remain
behind until the situation requires moving with them (OWDA, 2011).

3.2 Research Design

This research will employ a cross-sectional survey that data will collect at a single point in
time. While the nature of study will be adapt descriptive research design that carried out
mixed approaches both qualitative and quantitative methods in order to get in-depth insights
of the issues under consideration.

3.3 Data types and sources

This study will use both quantitative and qualitative data, to capture the information of the of
drought early warning and its multiple effects of drought on pastoral community and way to
adopt harsh environment. Consequently, the relevant data will be derived from primary and
secondary data sources.
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3.3.1 Primary data
Primary data will be collected from sample of pastoral household’s survey, Focus Group
discussion, and Key informants interview and community groups discussion in Denan
woreda. The data from sample households mainly include household demographic
characteristics, asset possessions and perception of early warning, and adverse effects of
drought on pastoral households. Furthermore, additional data regarding about household
adaptation strategies drought will also be collected.

3.3.2 Secondary data

Secondary data will be obtained all relevant institutions including NGOs and government
particularly DPPB, Environmental Protection forestry, mine and Energy Development
Agency, Water Bureau, Livestock, Pastoral and Development Bureau, Agriculture and
Natural Resource Development bureau, Woreda Administration, central statistical bureau and
National meteorological Agency of Somali region.

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3.4 Sampling Design and Sample size
The study will be designed and carried out in one Woreda by considering the time available for
field research and availability of access of transportation and it is pure pastoralism particularly
presence of recurrent droughts.

First, Denan woreda will select purposively since it has potential majority of pastoralist
communities compared with other woreda in shabele Zone. Secondly, 4 Pastoralist Kebeles will
select out of the total 12 Kebeles in the woreda through sample random sampling technique.
Finally, a total of 6452 households will be selected randomly using probability proportional to
sample size sampling system and conssidering a set of criteria’s including the adverse effect of
drought on pastoral community and the role of early warning system and how they used in the
area.

Accordingly, 153 sample households will be selected from 3,000 households. This study will be
applied a simplified formula provided by Yamane (1967). To determine the required sample size
at 92% confidence level, degree of variability=0.8 and level of precision= 8% (0.08)

N
n=
1+ N ( e ) 2

Table 1 Sample Size Determination and Kebele Proportion

No. Name of the Kebele Population at HH level Percentage Sample Size

1. Shinile 1600 0.25 38

2. Burkayar 21620.33 51
3. Danbarweyne 1409 0.2234
4. Ejid 1280 0.2030
Total 64521153
Source: BoFED 2017

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3.5. Methods of data collection
Generally, the data sources for this study will be both primary and secondary. To achieve the
stated objectives data will be collected through household survey, key informant interview, focus
group discussion and observation.

3.5.1 Household Survey

Household survey willobtain theinformation on the demographic characteristics, household
assets, and income source and most vulnerable of livelihood assets, the perception of
communities about climate change, pastoralist source of conflicts, mitigation and resolution
mechanisms will be prepared. For the household survey, the enumerators who are familiar to the
area will be recruited from the study area and will be trained on the purposes, methods of data
collection and interviewing techniques. The interview agenda will be both structured and check
list and pre-tested before the interview takes place.

3.5.2 Key informants and focus group discussion

The key informants for the study will be classified accordingly from the NGOs and government
institutions notably bureau of livestock, pastoral and development water and mine bureau,
DPPB, Health, livestock and Agriculture bureaus of the region and experts at the woreda level
will be contacted and hence the experts will be consistof both government and NGOs’ workers.
Moreover, the surveyed sample should be used different methods in order to obtain different
relevant qualitative information. In each selected Pks there will be two focused group discussions
in which men and women will discuss separately. The maximum number of participants in each
group will be ten in order to make it manageable size. During the discussion the role of the
researcher will give a chance and encourage the passive participants to respond questions or
share their personal experience and observation about the issue under discussion.

At community level, with the help of resource persons or key informants and focus group
discussion will be carried out under elders, religious leaders, Clan leaders, and knowledgeable
individuals in each locality.

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3.5.3 Field Observation
The scattered villages and the different land use/cover as well as all livelihood sources in the
selected areas of the district will be observed. Moreover, how the people collecting water from
far distances water status of the study area for the available livestock and input of livestock will
be also observed during the field survey. This observation will support the researcher to
substantiate the information acquire through questionnaire.

3.6 Method of data analysis

Climate data temperature and rainfall was analyzed using Microsoft excel spreadsheet. However,
the study design was processed and analyzed for both quantitative and qualitative methods.
According qualitative analysis, data obtained from focus group discussions, key informant
interviews and direct observation will be arranged and interpret in relation to the research
objectives, to enable and give overall interpretation of the findings showing how thematic areas
and issues relate to another. For quantitative data, descriptive statistics was administered
through percentage, frequency distribution, Mean and standard deviation analysis using
statistical package for social science (SPSS) software21.
All the data required for this study will be collect on March -Aprill 2018

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 CHAPTER FOUR

4. PLAN OF ACTION AND LOGISTICS

4.1. Work plan

Table 2:- showing activity plan

Description MONTH
S. Feb March April May June July
Activity plan
No          
Proposal development and defense
1            
Prepare survey data tools for data collection
2
Orientation & training for data enumerators
3            
Pretesting/pilot
4            
5 Data collection            
Data analysis
6            
Data interpretation
7            
Documentation and printing
8            
Write up
9            
10 thesis Presentation/ Defense            

4.2 Detail Budget Cost Breakdown

Table 3:- showing budget cost breakdown

Activities

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S/No Data Collection Quantity Number of Days Rate Total

1 Training for enumerators 10 2 200 2,000

2 Data Collectors 5 6 200 6,000

3 Supervisors 1 6 300 1,800

4 Stationery costs Lump sum 5000

5 Vehicle Rent  1 6 1500 9,500

6 Communication costs 4 10 50 2,000

Data Entry and Analysis 2 5 300 3,000

Report Writing 1 10 200 2,000

 Grand total 31,300

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