A Report on

A study on impact of COVID-19 on Indian Tourism and Hospitality Industry

INDUKAKA IPCOWALA INSTITUTE OF MANAGEMENT (I2IM)
CHAROTAR UNIVERSITY OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY (CHARUSAT)
Prepaid by
Patel Dev
ID No: 19BBA057
BBA PROGRAMME, SEMESTER – 5
BM391.1
Tourism and Hospitality Management - 1
UNDER THE GUIDANCE OF
Course Coordinator
Dr. Pranav Desai
Asst. Professor,

INDUKAKA IPCOWALA INSTITUTE OF MANAGEMENT (I2IM)

FACULTY OF MANAGEMENT STUDIES
CHAROTAR UNIVERSITY OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
(CHARUSAT)
INDUKAKA IPCOWALA INSTITUTE OF MANAGEMENT (I2IM)
CHAROTAR UNIVERSITY OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY (CHARUSAT) AT.
& PO. CHANGA – 388 421 TA: PETLAD DIST. ANAND, GUJARAT

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 Table of Contents
ABSTRACT ..................................................................................................................................................
3
INTRODUCTION ........................................................................................................................................ 3
Observation of the study ............................................................................................................................... 5
Review of Indian tourism and hospitality sectors .........................................................................................
5
DATA PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS .............................................................................................. 7
Impacts of Covid-19 on Indian travel and tourism industry ......................................................................... 9
(a) Revenue: .............................................................................................................................................. 9
(b) Profit after Tax (PAT) ....................................................................................................................... 9
(c) Earnings per Share(EPS)…………....................................................................................................12
Cultural implications ...................................................................................................................................
10
What people can do? ...................................................................................................................................
11
What can businesses do? .............................................................................................................................
11
8 Potential long lasting tourism policy implications ...................................................................................
12
Measures taken by India ............................................................................................................................. 13
Relief measures by the States: .................................................................................................................... 15
Challenges ...................................................................................................................................................
16
Way out .......................................................................................................................................................
17
Project ......................................................................................................................................................... 18
Results and Discussion ............................................................................................................................... 19
Forecasting demand of tourism ...................................................................................................................
20
Impact on COVID-19on tourism economy. ................................................................................................
22
Learning ...................................................................................................................................................... 23
Conclusion .................................................................................................................................................. 23
Reference .................................................................................................................................................... 23

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ABSTRACT
The focus of this study is the assessment of the impact of Covid-19 pandemic in the tourism and
hospitality sector which has led global panic due to present situation. Scope of this work is to
study the effects of Covid-19, current events, and assessment through the interpretation as it is
essential to investigate how the industry will recover after Covid-19 and how it can be
sustainable. Current work is to analyze the future with few measures and speedy recovery and
regain of the tourism and hospitality sector for the Indian economy, employment and business.
The study has some recommends of local impact of the outbreak, impacts and are critically
evaluated in this review. This is the need of the hour to take measures before time to control the
impacts.

Thus, the study determines that tourism enterprises and scholars must consider and change the
basic principles, main assumptions, and organizational situations related to research and practice
framework through rebuilding and establishing the tourism sector. In the second step, the study
discusses direct COVID-19 tourism impacts, attitudes, and practices in gaining the leisure
industry's boom and recovery. In the third phase, the study proposes to observe the
characteristics and COVID-19 tourism consequences on the travel and tourism research. The
findings provide insights in regaining the tourism industry's operational activities and offer
helpful suggestions to government officials, scholars, and tourism firms to reinvest in the tourism
industry to set it back to a normal position.

INTRODUCTION

India is a country with multicultural experiences, natural beauty, and rich heritage and has
always been an attractive tourist destination. Mountains, beaches, forests, deserts, deltas, and
architectural marvels give the country a distinct geographical entity. Yoga, Ayurveda, and
natural health resorts also attract tourists. In India total of 38 world heritage sites were
recognized by UNESCO as of August 2019, which is the sixth-highest in the world. Apart from

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all these, the medical tourism industry has great potential due to the low cost of treatment. The
Indian tourism industry is one of the significant and vital contributors to the economy of the
country. As per United Nation World Tourism Organization (UNWTO), international tourism
receipts of the world in 2018 was US$ 1451 billion, of which India contributes 6.6% in the Asia
Pacific and 1.97% in the world. India ranked ten among 185 countries in terms of travel and
tourism's total contribution to GDP in 2019, which was almost US$ 194.30 billion. About
generating employment and income, the tourism industry seems to be more effective than other
sectors. International tourism is an invisible export that creates foreign exchange as other export
industries create. Tourism creates a new channel for young people to provide a large number of
employment opportunities. Also, the Government yields high tax revenue. In every ten jobs,
travel and tourism industries support one position. Travel and tourism worldwide support 330
million jobs and keep 182.2 million jobs in the Asia Pacific, of which 5.56% under direct
employment and 7.19% under indirect employment. During the year 2014 to 2019, India gets the
first position in terms of creating tourism jobs. In this period Indian travel and transport industry
created 6.36 million jobs (Report WTTC 2019). Tourism is a sector that uses minimum natural
resources and optimum use of workforce and expertise. The travel and tourism industry is a
sector that strengthens the country's economy to help other sectors like transportation, food,
beverage, culture, sports, and more. Tourism helps promote cultural diplomacy, connects the
people, and promotes friendship and cooperation between India and other countries. As per the
2019-20 annual report of the Ministry of Tourism of India, more than 87 million people were
employed in the tourism industry in 2018-19, which is 12.75% of the country's total
employment. In India, tourism is also important from an economic point of view, as during the
year 2019 total of 17.42 million international tourists came to visit India and contributing a
substantial amount of US$ 29.962 billion in foreign exchange (Annual Report 2019). India
ranked 34 out of 140 countries as per the Travel and Tourism competitiveness report 2019. India
is a place for every kind of traveler and has something for everyone. Domestic tourism is also an
essential contributor to the sector. During the year 2018 total of 1854.93 million domestic tourist
visits all over the country (Annual Report 2019-20). The current outlook of the Travel and
Tourism industry is highly uncertain because of the Corona virus pandemic. Due to this, the
world is facing an unprecedented global economic, health, and social emergency. The travel and
tourism industry is the most affected sector because hotels are closed, airplanes are on the
ground, and all countries worldwide put travel restrictions. This pandemic is the biggest
challenge that the tourism industry has ever faced. Whenever an economic slowdown hits the
world or the country, people have less income and dispose less of it and save more for future
contingencies. The covid-19 pandemic is one of the worst crises the Travel and Tourism industry
faces and impacts both segments, i.e., inbound tourism and outbound tourism. Local, regional,
national, and international travel restrictions immediately affected the tourism industry.
Whenever any widely spread decrease hits the earth, tourism has always been the first to get
involved because people could not get out from their homes to travel. This time pandemic affects
the world economy. People lost their jobs worldwide, and no future aspect is showing to come
out from pandemic and current situation is uncontrollable and worse than it actually would have
been. Fear of the virus creates distancing among the people, which will hurt tourism. Indian

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travel and tourism industry is staring at a massive loss because of travel restrictions and
pandemic fears, keeping people indoors. Every time, health and safety is the priority, and
traveling is the last for everyone. Whenever the world struck in a pandemic situation, people
always think they are more secure and safer in their own homes and avoid traveling to crowded
places. People will travel only to those places which are clean and less traveled because hygiene
is essential. Now the people will be very picky about their destinations. People will fear traveling
by public transport, and they prefer to travel by their vehicles. Whereas, as per the World
Economic Forum report 2019, India gets rank 105 out of 140 in health and hygiene, which is not
suitable for the country. Due to this, travel and tourism will have to struggle to grab customers.

The fear of getting infected from Covid-19 has impacted the travel and tourism industry of the
country domestically and internationally. Foreign travelers of many nations have canceled their
bookings. The Government gives social distancing directions to the public transport industry and
mandates air travel to left empty the middle seat to maintain social distancing. Thus, they
reduced seating capacity, which increased the flying cost, and for this reason, the travel cost will
also increase. Because of the emergency related to the Covid-19 panic, many flights, domestic
and international, can be canceled. International Transport Association estimates that the global
loss of revenue to airlines would be about US$ 214 billion while pending customer's refund due
to cancellation of flights stands at US$ 35 billion. The air transport industry is severely affected
due to flight ticket cancellation. The air transport industry's revenue has been reduced
significantly, and this situation does not improve soon.

Observation of the study

The purpose of the study is to investigate on the effect, efficiency, and effectiveness of Hospitality and
encourage tourism and grow the tourism market in India.
•To discuss and examine the study of local domestic tourism and hospitality growth before the
postpandemic
•To study and bring light on current crisis COVID-19 faced by tourism and hospitality sectors
•To project and analyze the future with few measures that will assist and overcome the problems in
tourism sectors.
•It is necessity to look what strategy the tourism, travel, and hospitality industry will retrieve
afterCOVID-19-if a vaccine is detected and come across-and how the tourism sectors can be made
reliable in extremely changed world

Review of Indian tourism and hospitality sectors

In India, the central government and state government have announced separate tourism plans and
strategy seeks to amplify job potential and development within the tourism and hospitality sectors, foster
economic integration and linkage with various sectors, some of the states like Andhra Pradesh,
Maharashtra, Kerala, Gujarat and MP are the states where tourism has developed systems and enable the
central government to legislate for tourism and hospitality development. As per the reports the proposal is

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to include in Concurrent list was circulated to the state governments and discussed at Chief Ministers'
Conference. The majority of the states agreed to the proposal. Facilitation and strengthening of Indian
tourism and hospitality is the main objective of Ministry of tourism [3]. increase tourism infrastructure,
easing of entry permits system, promise and pledge of quality aspects and standards in tourism service
providers, forecast of the nation as a 365 days’ of travellers destination, promotion of sustainable tourism
etc. are some of the plans and policy which need to be constantly worked upon to increase and ease
tourism in India. The “Incredible India 2.0” initiatives and awareness by the Ministry marks a shift from
the general promotions being undertaken across the world to market specific promotional plans and
content creation. The awareness covers all the important source markets for Indian tourism and also takes
into account emerging markets with significant potential. Limited creatives on different Niche products
being produced are being used in the initiatives. Indian tourism plays an essential pillar and strength of
the Make in India scheme. Tourism plays an important role in a significant economic multiplier and
becomes critical since India has to grow at highly rapid rates and create many jobs. India offers
geographical diversity with worlds heritage museum, and niche tourism products like cruise ships, food,
sports, eco-tourism, cultural tours and wild life etc. Incredible India has spurred growth in tourism and
even increased in the job employment.

India’s class in the travel and Tourism Competitive Index (TTCI) of world economic forum progress from
52nd position in 2015 to 40th position in 2017. Currently India has improved by another 6 positions and
ranked at 34th position in 2019.

The tourism and hospitality industry show to uplift the expansion of multiple-use infrastructure including
hotels, resorts and restaurants, transport infrastructure (aviation, cruise, shipping and railways), and even
in healthcare facilities some of the best initiatives are taken by the government of India to promote
medical tourism as below.

•The new way classification of entry permits visa "Medical Visa" has launched by the ministry of home
affairs, GOI, which can be given for specific motive to foreign tourists’ arrival to India for medical
treatment,
•The ministry of tourism has incorporated the marketing promotion of medical tourism as new initiatives
and awareness. The Marketing Development Assistance Scheme (MDAS), administered by the ministry
of tourism, Government of India, provides financial support and assistance to tourism service providers.
•To lift and improve medical tourism, the government announced setting up of the National Medical and
Wellness Tourism Board (NMWT), to provide help and support to those visiting the country for health
care need. The boards and ministry officials, will include other stakeholders such as hospitals, hotels,
medical experts, and tour agents/operators.
United Nations World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) had selected India as the host country to honor
World Tourism Day 2019 on the subject 'Tourism and employment: A bigger future for everyone'. The
purpose of World Tourism Day (WTD) is to foster awareness among the international community on the
importance of tourism and its social, political, cultural and economic value.

Newly launched the awareness initiatives by GOI “Swachhta” is declare as a pillar of tourism, as a clean
and spotless tourist place which would be more reliable in the long run which will connect with tourist
and will be considered for financing. considering the significance of clean and hygiene which started by
the ministry of tourism [8], have administered the Swachhta Action Plan (SAP) activities through Indian

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Institute of Tourism and Travel Management (IITTM), Gwalior in many States/UTs to create acceptance
among tourist travelers, college students and stake-holders at destination places. The recognition activity
covered 1000 tourists, 500 students, and 60 stake-holders at each site involving activities of awareness on
cleanliness, orderliness amongst tourists, travelers, school students and stakeholders of places, events
centers and known archaeological memorial statue. As yet 383 buzz have been completed out of allocated
540 activities during 2019-20
Ministry of tourism has discovered 17 iconic sites in the country for development under Iconic Tourist
Sites Development Project and proposes to carry out the development of these sites in collaboration with
various Central Ministries, State Governments, Urban Local Bodies, Local Community and Industry
players/Private sector.

• Taj Mahal (UP)

• FatehpurSikri (UP)
• Ajanta (Maharashtra)
• Ellora (Maharashtra)
• Humayun Tomb (Delhi)
• QutabMinar (Delhi)
• Red Fort (Delhi)
• Colva Beach (Goa)
• Amer Fort (Rajasthan)
• Somnath (Gujarat)
• Dholavira (Gujarat)
• Khajuraho (Madhya Pradesh)
• Hampi (Karnataka)
• Kaziranga (Assam)
• Kumarakom (Kerala)
• Mahabodhi Temple (Bihar)
• Shimla (Himachal Pradesh)

In India, we have many states which are observed as vital tourist destination as per the allocation
of domestic tourist arrival in India during 2018 was 1854 million (revise) as compared to 1657
million in 2017, with an increasing rate of 11.9 %.
As per the reports available the number of Indian national departure from India during 2018 was
26.29 million as compared to 23.94 million in 2017, and register a growth rate of 9.8%

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DATA PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS.

Yea International Internationa Domesti Domesti TOTAL TOTAL

r Tourist l c c CONTRIBUTIO CONTRIBUTI
arrival(million Tourist Tourist Visitors N TO GDP O ON TO
) Receipt Arrival Spendin (US$ billions) EMPLOYMEN
(US$ (million) g T (million9)
billions) (US$
billions)

201 5.78 14.49 747.70 111.6 141.07 29.23

0
201 6.31 17.70 747.70 111.66 152.39 29.59
1
201 6.58 17.97 864.53 118.65 145.62 30.24
2
201 6.97 18.39 1045.05 112.26 143.07 30.99
3
201 13.11 19.70 1142.53 109.18 145.86 33.46
4
201 13.76 21.01 1282.80 110.02 144.86 35.80
5

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201 15.03 22.92 1431.97 108.63 155.02 36.56
6
201 16.81 27.31 1657.55 116.23 175.61 37.68
7
201 17.42 28.58 1854.93 129.99 186.12 38.57
8
201 17.90 30.30 2321.98 137.78 194.29 39.82
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Table No. 1, Source: UNWTO reports

As per the data of table no 1, we conclude that the Indian travel and tourism industry is essential
for its economy and is increasing. During the study period (2010 to 2019), we found a
continuous positive growth in all the variables except domestic visitor spending and total
contribution to GDP. In both the sectors domestic visitor spending and a real contribution to
GDP, we found a negative growth rate from 2012 to 2016, but after the year 2016, both the
variables record positive growth rate. The average growth rate of international tourist arrivals is
20.97%, and domestic tourist arrivals is 21.05%, while global tourism receipt and domestic
visitors spending average growth rate is 10.91% and 2.88%. Total contribution to GDP and real
contribution to employment average growth rate is 3.77% and 3.62%. During the ten years,
international tourist arrival has increased from US$ 5.78 million to US$ 17.90 million, which
means international tourist arrival is more than three times of the year 2010. International
tourism receipt has gone to US$ 30.30 billion, which is more than two times of global tourism
receipt of the year 2010. Domestic tourist arrival goes to 2321.98 million in 2019, which is more
than three times of 747.70 million in 2010. Based onthe above facts, we conclude that the Indian
tourism industry is rapidly growing and contributes to the Indian economy.
Impacts of Covid-19 on Indian travel and tourism industry
Revenue:
During the half-year study period from April to September 2020, the companies' total
revenue is Rs. 7795.41 Crore, whereas the companies earn Rs. 31431.68 Crore in the
same period of last financial year. It means that in the half-year period, the companies
make only 24.80% of revenue compared to half-yearly income of the previous financial
year. Loss of revenue in the half-year period is Rs. 23636.30 Crore, which is 75.20% of
half-yearly revenue of last financial year. In the half-year period of the previous financial
year, the companies earn 48.55% of total yearly income. If we compare the current
halfyear revenue to the last year's total revenue, we found that the companies make only
12.04% of revenue. In the quarter one (Q1) of the current financial year, the payment of
companies is only 14.82%, and in quarter two (Q2), the revenue is only 35.87%
compared to Q1 and Q2 of last financial year. We conclude that the lockdown affects the
Q1 more, or we say that due to full lockdown or restrictions, the companies earn the
lowest revenue in this period.

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 Profit after Tax (PAT): Due to lockdown and travel restrictions, the companies earn a loss
of Rs. 4162.28 Crore in Q1 and Rs. 1661.05 Crore in Q2. Whereas in the last financial
year companies earn Rs. 1642.81 Crore profit in Q1 and Rs. 1231.71 Crore loss in Q2.
From this result, we found that the loss of Q1 is 253.36% of last year's Q1 profit and the
failure of Q2 is 134.86% of the Q2 loss of the previous year. If we compare the current
half-year period to the last half-year period, the companies earn excess Rs loss. 5412.23
Crore. The recent half-yearly loss of Rs. 5823.33 is equal to 74.70% of current half-year
revenue. The companies' condition is not good in the present scenario, and after the half-
year period, companies do not earn a regularincome. Companies should earnRs. 5472.72
Crore of profit to reach the position of last financial year and it is likely to be impossible
to achieve the goal of such a massive target of Rs. 5472.72 Crore.

Earnings Per Share (EPS): Companies earns considerable losses in the current halfyear
period, i.e., Q1 & Q2. Due to this, the EPS of companies is also harmful. In the Q1 period, the
EPS is negative Rs.138.17, 245.81% of last year's Q1 EPS. In the Q2 period, the EPS is negative
Rs. 74.04, which is 342.14% of the previous year's Q2 EPS. The latest complete year EPS is
festive 109.38, whereas the current half-year EPS is negative Rs. 212.21. In the last financial
year, companies earn 31.61% of their full-year EPS in the half-year period (Q1 & Q2), whereas
in the current half-year period, the companies make negative EPS of Rs. 212.21. Companies
need to earn EPS of Rs. 321.59 to get the last year's EPS position. Companies can't make this
amount of EPS in the balance halfyear period (i.e. Q3 & Q4) because they could not reach the
average business level

Impact of the Covid 19 Pandemic

The World Health Organization (WHO) on March 11, 2020, declared the novel
coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak a global pandemic.3 Tourism was one of the first
sectors to be deeply impacted by the pandemic, as measures introduced to contain the
virus led to a near-complete cessation of tourism activities around the world. The
COVID-19 pandemic has hit the tourism economy hard with unprecedented effects on
jobs and businesses. Destinations that rely heavily on international, business and events
tourism are struggling. This sector also risks being among one of the last to recover with
the ongoing travel restrictions and the global recession. This has consequences beyond
the tourism economy, with many other sectors that support and are supported by tourism
also significantly impacted.

The impacts of COVID-19 on tourism threaten to increase poverty (SDG 1) and

inequality (SDG 10) and reverse nature and cultural conservation efforts. The pandemic
also risks slowing down progress towards the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).

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 Tourism is directly referenced in three goals: SDG 8 on ―decent work and economic
growth‖, SDG 12 ―responsible consumption and production‖ and SDG 14 ―life below
water.

Cultural implications
The global wealth of traditions, culture and diversity are among the principal motivations
for travel. The impact of COVID-19 on tourism places further pressure on heritage
conservation in the cultural sector, as well as on the cultural and social fabric of
communities, particularly indigenous people and ethnic groups. For instance, with the
closure of markets for handicrafts, products and other goods, indigenous women‘s
revenues have been particularly impacted. Cultural organizations have also seen their
revenues plummet. During the crisis, 90 per cent of countries fully or partially closed
World Heritage sites, and around 85,000 museums were temporarily closed. Tourism, a
sector built on people-topeople interaction, is one of the major vehicles for promoting
culture and advancing intercultural dialogue and understanding. 5During such
challenging times, domestic tourism is providing a much needed boost to help sustain
many tourism destinations and businesses and will continue to be a key driver of recovery
in the short to medium term. Domestic Tourism helps in the process of nation building
and connects the citizens to their history, culture, environment and at the same time
develop a sense of patriotism. Governments have been using domestic tourism as a tool to
eliminate local poverty, generate employment and economic growth, upgrade
infrastructure and alleviate pressure from overcrowding of destinations. Domestic travel
helps address seasonality within regions while also dispersing tourists to the less visited
rural areas. Domestic Tourism is considerably less receptive to crises, whether economic,
natural, health or political. It is, therefore, an excellent shock absorber, especially in the
case of economic crises. Due to its income redistribution effect (from tourists to local
populations) and its various multiplier effects all throughout the value chain, it is an
excellent tool for territorial development, easing social tensions and as a launch pad for
new destinations. In the present COVID 19 scenario when international travel has come
to a standstill, Domestic Tourism is the answer to the crisis ridden tourism industry to
survive and sustaining jobs at the local level. Domestic Tourism can be the perfect driver
in achieving an effective recovery by focusing on the new normal which includes
reviewed standards and operating models, meets the new traveler needs and requirements,
and ensures the sector‘s business continuity and sustainable growth.

What to do now
Profound changes in the structure of travel and tourism demand and supply are expected
to reshape the sector in the aftermath of COVID-19. The uncertainty regarding the
evolution of the virus, its health effects and the repercussions in the economy render
imperative alternative approaches to business as usual by individuals, businesses,
governments and international organizations. Learning from past major structural

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 transformations should motivate stakeholders to embrace a strategic approach, based on
current evidence and careful scenario analysis. In practice, it means that governments
need to consider more than one scenario, and work on multiple fronts simultaneously.
This allows for quick reflexes in policymaking.

What people can do? COVID-19 has impacted people with regard to both tourism
supply and demand. Consequently, tourism sector professionals, as well as tourists
themselves, need to take into account the "new normal". Due attention must be paid to
changes in tourism products and services, the necessary safety concerns, as well as the
interpretation of the sector trends. People can adopt the following measures to survive in
this pandemic:

a) Maintain flexibility of employment opportunities within the sector

b) Upskilling and reskilling to adapt to the evolving labour market needs
c) Keeping an eye out for the tourism offers and destinations of the future

What can businesses do?

While travel and tourism businesses have suffered disproportionally compared to other
service sectors, there are certain measures that they can take in order to mitigate the
effects of the current crisis and better prepare for the future. Taking the opportunity of the
fall in demand, tourism businesses can aim at both optimizing procedures and
undertaking initiatives that would better position them in the COVID and post-COVID
travel and tourism market. Policy Responses Globally, the tourism policy makers are
responding in different ways. However, most of them agree on the need for two distinct
phases of intervention — immediate response and recovery. The first relates to
interventions that respond to the immediate crisis. This implies the abrupt removal of
almost all forms of tourism demand for an unspecified time and the corresponding shock
to the industry. The second phase refers to the preliminary, followed by longer-term

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 measures to help the sector recover once signs of imminent recovery are identified. Policy
interventions in the first phase focus on survival and support the private sector to
maintain workforce. In the second phase, they focus on sector wide reinvention, recovery,
and building resilience. Although countries and international organizations have
implemented a range of measures to mitigate the socio-economic impacts of COVID-19
and to stimulate the recovery of tourism, the magnitude of the crisis requires extra efforts
and continued support

8 Potential long lasting tourism policy implications

• Sustainability may become more prominent in tourism choices, due to greater awareness
of climate change and adverse impacts of tourism. Natural areas, regional and local destinations
are expected to drive the recovery, and shorter travel distances may result in a lower
environmental impact of tourism.
• Domestic tourism is expected to benefit, as people prefer to stay local and visit
destinations within their own country. Domestic tourists are often more price-sensitive and tend
to have lower spending patterns.
•Traveller confidence has been hit hard by the crisis, and the ongoing uncertainty. This may lead
to a decline in demand and tourism consumption that continues well long after the initial shock.
•Travellerbehaviour will be influenced by the evolution of the crisis, as well as longer term
consumer trends that are reshaping in the way people travel. This may include the emergence of
new niches and market segments, and a greater focus on safety protocols and contactless tourism
experiences.
• Safety and hygiene have become key factors to select destinations and tourism activities.
People are likely to prefer ‗private solutions‘ when travelling, avoiding big gatherings, and
prioritising private means of transport, which may have an adverse impact on the environment.
• Structural change in tourism supply is expected across the ecosystem. Not all businesses
will survive the crisis and capacity in the sector is likely to be reduced for a period, limiting the
recovery.
• Skills shortages in the tourism sector may be exacerbated, as many jobs are lost and
workers will redeploy to different sectors.
• Reduced investment will call for active policies to incentivise and restore investment in
the tourism sector to maintain the quality of the tourism offer and promote a sustainable recovery.
•Digitalization in tourism services is expected to continue to accelerate, including a higher use of
automation, contact-less payments and services, virtual experiences, real-time information
provision.
• Tourism policy will need to be more reactive and in the long term it will move to more
flexible systems, able to adapt faster to changes of policy focus. Crisis management will be a
particular area of focus. Safety and health policy issues also

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Measures taken by India
The Ministry of Tourism has taken the following initiatives for the development and promotion
of domestic tourism in the country:

•DekhoApnaDesh: The Ministry had launched the DekhoApnaDesh (DAD) initiative in line with
the appeal of the Hon‘ble Prime Minister asking every citizen to visit at least 15 destinations by
the year 2022 to promote domestic tourism. DAD is promoted extensively on social media
accounts and the website of the Ministry and by the Domestic India Tourism offices. Under this
initiative ministry carries out a series of webinars showcasing the diverse culture, heritage,
destinations and tourism products of the country. As on date 52 webinars have been organised
with a viewership of more than 2 lakhs. To create a mass awareness, the Ministry has also
launched an online pledge and Quiz on DAD on the MyGov.in platform.

• Bharat Parv and ParyatanParv: The Ministry has been organizing the Bharat Parv and
ParyatanParv in collaboration with the States/ UTs and other central ministries / Departments for
the last four years to showcase the rich culture, history and heritage of India to the citizens. The
objective of these events is to draw focus on the benefits of Tourism and reinforcing the principle
of tourism for all.

• Domestic Tourism campaigns and promotion on Social Media and website: Promotion
campaigns are carried out through DAVP in Domestic market on Electronic and print media
promoting domestic tourism. Ministry also carries out promotion of destinations, products,
festivals, cuisines etc. of the country on its social media handles.

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• Development of Tourism Infrastructure: The Ministry of Tourism under its Swadesh
Darshan and PRASHAD schemes have sanctioned projects worth approx. Rs. 6500 crores for the
development of the tourism infrastructure to provide a better experience and facilities to the
visitors.

• Social awareness campaigns: The Ministry runs campaigns under the brand line
AtithiDevo Bhava on sensitizing the citizens on social issues like respect towards women,
cleanliness, graffiti etc.

• Quiz / Essay Competitions at Schools and institutions: The Ministry through its field
offices organises quiz programmes, poster making and essay competitions at institutes of hotel
management (IHMs), Indian institutes of tourism and travel management (ITTMs), Schools to
create awareness about history, heritage, tourism products and destinations in the country.

• Promotion of Fairs/ festivals/Events – To create awareness among the masses the

Ministry celebrates special events / days with citizen‘s participation like International Day of
Yoga, World Tourism Day, Constitution Day, Independence day and other regional festivals.

• Aerial Photography: The Ministry of Tourism has commissioned serial photography of

key cities and cultural assets (Delhi, Chennai, Kolkata, Mumbai, Bengaluru, Udupi, Aurangabad,
Iconic Tourist sites) across the country during lockdown.

• Improvement in connectivity: The Ministry of Tourism, with a view to enhancing air

connectivity to tourist destinations in the country has had 46 tourism routes included under the
Regional connectivity scheme (RCS) – UDAN 3 Scheme of the Ministry of Civil Aviation. The
Ministry of Tourism will extend financial support for the operationalisation of these routes on the
pattern of the viability gap funding and will release funds to the Ministry of Civil Aviation for the
same. Of the 46 routes, 16 routes have been made operational as on date. The Ministry has held
discussions with the Ministry of Road Transport & Highways (MoRTH) regarding improving
road connectivity to important tourist destinations in the country. Based on discussions held, the
Ministry had forwarded a list of 50 tourist destinations which could be taken up by the Ministry
of Road Transport & Highways in the first phase. It has further been discussed that where good
road connectivity already exists, setting up of Wayside Amenities, prominent signages and
beautification of the area, at a distance of 15-20 kms on either side of the tourist destination may
be considered.

• Communication with Industry Stake Holders: The Ministry and the Regional offices are
regularly communicating with the Travel Industry and other stakeholders on issues related to
opening up of Tourism sector, handling of tourists, protocols of safety and security, service
standards etc.

SAATHI Initiative: To rebuild the trust of the domestic and international traveler in terms of
India being a safe destination to travel in the post COVID scenario, the Ministry of Tourism

15
 launched the System for Assessment, Awareness and Training for Hospitality Industry
(SAATHI). As India opens up for tourism, hotel owners can easily get themselves trained and
certified through the SAATHI website following three easy steps. The First step involves Self
Certification in which users will be informed about the key elements and a certification will be
generated. Following, this a participation certificate will be awarded to owners enrolling for a
free webinar. The final step involves site assessment (paid), certifying the ground preparedness of
the hotels, and homestays.

• Measures taken by the Ministry during the Crisis: The Ministry of Tourism put in place
various measures for crisis management and support tourism stakeholders and particularly foreign
tourists, who were stranded in India. Following measures were taken by the Ministry:

i) Setting up of COVID-19 Cell

ii) Dissemination of Advisories and Guidelines in respect of COVID-19
iii) 24x7 HelpLine iv) Coordination with Hotels regarding stranded guests v)
Accommodation to Foreign Tourists by ITDC vi) Joint Working Group with State
Tourism Officers vii) Setting up of ―Stranded in India‖ Portal

• Relief Measures by the Government: In order to ensure the survival of the businesses and
retention of the employees, the Government and RBI have announced various economic stimulus
measures. viii) RBI has given 3 months moratorium till June 2020, which has been extended for
a further up to 31st December, 2020.
ix) The Government has further announced the Atamnirbhar Bharat package vide which Rs 3 lakh
crore collateral free automatic loan has been made available for the Micro Medium and Small
Enterprises (MSMEs). The loan will have a 4-year tenure and 12-months moratorium.

The Government waived off PF contribution for three months for organisations with less than 100
persons and 90 per cent employees below 15000. Under the Atamnirbhar Bharat package, PF
contribution of both employer and employee has been reduced to 10 per cent each from existing
12 per cent each for all establishments covered by EPFO for the next three months i.e. up to
September 2020. The Central Government has also given relief from various regulatory
compliances under Income Tax Act, Companies Act and GST Act for varying period in the wake
of COVID-19 crisis to ensure business continuity and survival.

Relief measures by the States:

The Ministry of Tourism has also taken up with the State Governments regarding various fiscal
and regulatory relief measures relating to State and Local Governments. The key demands of
Industry relating to State and Local Governments are:
I) Relief from regulatory compliances
II) Relief from penal provisions for delays in dues
III) Relief from excise fees
IV) Relief from electricity duty

16
 V) Relief from property tax
The ministry has planned a detailed strategy to utilize technology to the fullest extent to
overcome the setback created by the pandemic. Incredible India digital platform, in collaboration
with Google, features a variety of 360 degree walk-throughs and stories for prominent tourist
attractions across the country. The content is provisioned on major tourist destination pages
within the Incredible India website. These embedded walk-throughs provide an engaging
experience to the viewer by providing them with immersive 360 degree photos. 360 degree
walkthroughs have also been provisioned for prominent World Heritage Sites in India.

Digital media will be utilized fully to promote and spread awareness about the tourist
destinations and activities and involve people to prepare them for their visits when the situation
becomes normal. Incredible India Web Portal and Mobile App is further being enriched with
content and tourist friendly features offering a high degree of personalization.

The Ministry of Tourism has launched the Incredible India Tourist Facilitator (IITF)
Certification Programme – a digital initiative that aims at creating an Online learning platform
with the objective of creating a pool of well trained and professional Tourist Facilitators across
the country. This will help in creation of employment at the local level and even in the remote
areas of the country having tourism potential.

In order to tap international tourists, the Ministry of Tourism through the India Tourism Offices
overseas proposes to undertake various promotional activities which include participation in
travel fairs and exhibitions; advertising in the local print, electronic, outdoor and digital media;
organizing webinars to highlight success stories around COVID-19 in India to build confidence
among foreign tour operators and travellers, organizing Road Shows, India Evenings, Know
India Seminars & workshops; organizing and supporting Indian Food Festivals and cultural
festivals; offering brochure support to tour operators, and joint advertising/joint promotions with
airlines, tour operators and other organizations, joint promotions in collaboration with the Indian
Missions abroad etc

Challenges
Historically, tourism has shown a strong ability to adapt, innovate and recover from adversity.
However, this unprecedented situation requires new approaches and strong multi-level response
and partnerships. The COVID-19 global crisis is unprecedented. The uncertain lifecycle,
geographical and temporal distribution and intensity of the pandemic make it impossible at this
time to predict the actual timing and path of recovery. However, one thing is certain - the global
travel and tourism industry is already facing and is likely to continue to face extraordinary
challenges. The five biggest of these are
i) increasing focus on health and hygiene standards;
ii) understanding how demand is changing (including the role of domestic and regional
tourism);

17
 iii) interpreting changing business models due to consolidation and corporate restructuring;
iv) mobilizing innovation and technology solutions impacting distribution and market
access; and
v) guiding public investments in destinations to position them for a more sustainable and resilient
tourism industry post COVID-19. Recovery will require phased actions and creative
policies enabling all stakeholders to adapt to a new business landscape. The public and
private sectors along with destination communities will need to work together to create
solutions. Historically, demand is known to rebound after a crisis, though the recovery
time may vary. In this instance, the tourism sector can expect substantial change in
supply and demand patterns emerging from this crisis. There will likely be a downturn in
disposable income leading to less travel for some groups and renewed travel for higher-
end market segments. Corporations are likely to experience consolidation as Small and
Medium Enterprises (SMEs) face extended distress and even bankruptcy. The COVID-
19 pandemic will undoubtedly leave a deep imprint on the structure of the travel and
tourism industry. Collapsing consumer demand, low Challenges Historically, tourism has
shown a strong ability to adapt, innovate and recover from adversity. However, this
unprecedented situation requires new approaches and strong multi-level response and
partnerships.

will need to work together to create solutions. Historically, demand is known to rebound after a
crisis, though the recovery time may vary. In this instance, the tourism sector can expect
substantial change in supply and demand patterns emerging from this crisis. There will likely be
a downturn in disposable income leading to less travel for some groups and renewed travel for
higher-end market segments. Corporations are likely to experience consolidation as Small and
Medium Enterprises (SMEs) face extended distress and even bankruptcy. The COVID-19
pandemic will undoubtedly leave a deep imprint on the structure of the travel and tourism
industry. Collapsing consumer demand, low cash reserves, and a lack of access to flexible lines
of credit has forced many smaller travel and tourism operators to close. At the same time, while
the larger firms are better positioned to withstand this crisis, they are also facing significant
challenges as demand is not recovering anytime soon.

Way out
Encouraging news on vaccines has boosted the hopes for recovery but challenges remain with the
sector expected to remain in survival mode until well into 2021. As countries gradually lift travel
restrictions and tourism slowly restarts in many parts of the world, health must continue to be a
priority and coordinated heath protocols that protect workers, communities and travelers while
supporting companies and workers must be firmly in place. As travel restarts in some parts of the
world, limited connectivity and weak consumer confidence, the unknown evolution of the
pandemic and the impact of the economic downturn present unprecedented challenges to the
tourism sector. Supporting the millions of livelihoods that depend upon a sector affected by
months of inactivity, and building a sustainable and responsible travel experience that is safe for
host communities, workers and travellers are key to accelerating recovery. This crisis is also an

18
 unprecedented opportunity to transform the relationship of tourism with nature, climate and the
economy. It is time to rethink how the sector impacts our natural resources and ecosystems,
building on existing work on sustainable tourism; to examine how it interacts with our societies
and other economic sectors; to measure and manage it better; to ensure a fair distribution of its
benefits and to advance the transition towards a carbon neutral and resilient tourism economy. A
collective and coordinated response by all stakeholders can stimulate the transformation of
tourism, together with economic recovery packages, and investments in the green economy.
Harnessing innovation and digitalization, embracing local values, and creating decent jobs for all,
especially for youth, women and the most vulnerable groups in our societies, could be front and
centre in tourism‘s recovery. To that end, the sector needs to advance efforts to build a new
model that promotes partnerships, places host people at the centre of development, advances
evidencebased policies and carbon neutral investment and operations.

Project
Project and analyze the future model of the hospitality and tourism sectors
With the coronavirus pandemic has not only brought whole socio-economic structures into a halt
but has challenged the globalization and global operations of small and medium business.
However, for a rapid and quick recovery and retrieve of the Indian tourism economy,
employment, and business implementation task, a sustainable and fresh start is necessary in most
of the worsened economic sectors. Normally, an infection used to attack the unsafe groups with
food, health care insecurity in their lifestyle and they normally used to be the poor of the society.
Ironically, corona infection first attacked the international travelers and the pandemic was given
rise through the travel and thus has challenged mainly the societies of social class globally seeing
that tourism and hospitality is one of the largest and fastest-growing industry is affected after
coronavirus (Covid-19) pandemic it is the key donor to the most industries and flow to the Indian
economy. Tourism and hospitality are muted and halt in the country due to the threat of spreading
Covid-19. It is likely to see that at the peak in cases and possibilities to mark above 75000 in
ending May 2020. The situation should be strategically addressed and reach to every person with
all the possibilities measures looking at the current situations and to overcome the future threats
and ensuring the wellbeing health of all humans. Therefore, some of the positive recommendation
has to make to overcome this damage occurred by Covid-19 pandemic: •Despite all the
challenges it is important to tell positive communication and news and social media platforms
like WhatsApp, Facebook, Twitter for the awareness of potential tourists and guests by
maintaining international advertising through the campaign which is a crucial point in promoting

19
 Indian tourism and hospitality industry by making them alert, making them understand of good
practices, using sanitizers, washing hands for 30 seconds and maintain social distance etc.
•Allowing guests to book hotels in modified dates with flexibility with flexible-rates and can
change dates with key strategy to get hotel bookings and even allow modification of cancellation
in emergencies. •It is always useful to endorse the word Flexibility as the best promotions for
tourism and hospitality which will able to pull up a lot of guests and help in increasing room
revenue by ensuring strict hygiene policy and making ease availability of hand sanitizers for
guest who checks in hotels and restaurants or take away. •Due to the present situation of Covid-
19, it shows fear of traveling in city limits needs to attract people with remote places and
accommodation centers which will be a good strategy to attract tourists like resorts or eco-hotels.
•Some of the initiatives from the government could do the reduction of taxes for certain months
for micro and macrolevel business owners and also could think to provide interestfree capital loan
schemes under legal documentation. •As advised by WHO and medical experts admire the Indian
government for successful measures and precautions was taken to control the situation on the
accurate and timely decisions with the support of state government, the country is not in a stage
to proceed forward for the tourism industry as it still need perfect planning enhancement to reach
the earlier stage of tourism and hospitality industry. •Government is deciding to run some
operational industries in the green zone where positive coronavirus case is less and also
permitting few states to run food processing sectors depends upon the number of covid-19 cases
less in particular zone. The recommendation outlined by United Nation World Tourism
Organization (UNWTO) have already created several practices and responded quickly to save the
key of the tourism and also hospitality sectors at present. The special awareness named "Travel
Tomorrow" has become the most regular thread that runs through the World Tourism
Organization's "if we stay at home. We can travel tomorrow. The hashtag #Travel Tomorrow one
of this is the best message of solidarity and hope through which United Nation World Tourism
Organization (UNWTO) calls for shared responsibility among travelers and the tourism sectors
around the world to deal with current issues of Covid-19 virus it also further adds the campaign to
specify core values of tourism that constitute the main pillars of the #Travel Tomorrow campaign
as, discovering different cultures, practicing solidarity and respect, caring for the environment,
Countries like Oman, Germany, Morocco, Mongolia, and Uruguay and as well as cities as Bogota
and Vienna have already executed and endorsed #Travel Tomorrow thus amplifying the voice of
tourism which is united and to face this unprecedented worldwide challenge and also ensured
after the committee meeting tourism and hospitality will start with action plan and safety
guidelines and will focus on restarting the tourism and hospitality with all essential plans in the
coming months with safety protocols and discuss further for the permission to start aviation and
hospitality sectors in coming days.

Results and Discussion

Long term measures on the covid-19 crisis Long term measures are something that heals the
sector from within and builds an inherent resilience to combat any future crisis of this sort and
build the ability to recover in the shortest possible time [14]. •The impacts and effects of the
Coronavirus pandemic across countries have standstill in many ways, the primary aim of all the
stakeholders locally and state, nation and worldwide would be to bring back the confidence of the

20
tourists to visit India. In fact, in the long run, the nation will have a competitive edge in this
respect, at present it has been least affected by the pandemic compared to other countries affected
by the Coronavirus. The government authorities and private stakeholders should very subtly
publicize this newly acquired credibility for promoting our tourism and hospitality sector. The
government should allocate sufficient funds for organizing and promoting various activities in
prospective markets through print and nonprint media based on the facts which we receive from
the authority to reach the public sources. •Overall, different destination needs rebranding is very
much needed in this difficult time of crisis also look into the most affected states with economic
support by the government authorities, looking into the positive elements during this COVID-19
with information on news and strong widespread policy for use of social media [15]. •As travel
and tourism is in intensive sector, some of the advice from global institutional structures such as
UNWTO and WTTC clearly stated that measures to protect tourism and hospitality employee’s
retention to swiftly avoid and focus on strengthening the employee’s skills and development
through reskilling and digitalization skills. •The government authorities is working on the crisis
management action plan and also building trust factors with the tour operators, we also aim to
focus highly on all types of safety protocols and safety and security measures for the tourists
visiting various places of the country with having proper guidelines, Since the global tourism
fraternity will take some time to get settled after the pandemic, the Indian tourism and hospitality
sectors should focus more on domestic travelers by marketing and promotion campaign in
coordination with tourism partners. Travelers and tourist must feel more comfortable to travel
within the country rather than going abroad alternate tourist spot with all social safety of
individual entering in safe zone.

Whole government approach that states are comparatively in a better stronger position in terms of
the spread of the Coronavirus, both Central and State governments (regional and local) of this
region should highlight on promoting and developing tourism attractions of this region also need
to check the guidelines and measures particularly with the safest zone to travel in the country
with providing proper awareness and facts to deal with coronavirus pandemic.

•Central government authorities and state and local authorities have to forecast the significance
and grow initially the local tourism homebound of the community as an immediate effect, mostly
the tourism products related to health, healing, well-being, ayurvedic and cultural and medicine
with the market segments to the travelers, however, domestic tourism bound towards attractions,
events and festivals will be stable after the Covid-19 pandemic digital media have to play a major
role in terms of promoting domestic tourism in collaboration with the local hotels, restaurants and
tour operators to support the local business and help in increasing the Indian economy.

•Tourism and hospitality sectors stakeholders should reinforced and stimulated to rethink the
process and systems to perform in a better way with innovative ideas and cutting down
unnecessary cost, skill training and should lift the new startups with doing right things at right
time and more of technology-based innovations with low-cost production and delivery and
making the process convenient to the people by promoting and offering discounts on entry fees in
museum or visa entry permits fees. •Financial implications can be in the form of allocating extra

21
 budget to foster tie-ups for mutual publicity with domestic and foreign tourist associations‟,
airlines and hotels. For involvement of state tourism departments in the hospitality scheme, a list
of destinations with status reports on destination development as per parameters of destination
development scheme of the ministry; should be invited and destinations selected for international
exposure.

•Indian chambers committee of representatives has proposed a complete GST holiday or offering
destination vouchers for tourism, travel, and hospitality industry for the next 12 months till the
time of the recovery healing happens and urge to ministry to provide funds from the MGNREGA
scheme to support the salaries of employees and other workers. •Hashtag #India welcomes you
back-Develop suitable messaging and advertising campaigns for tourism and hospitality during
the crisis. Once the crisis weakens, promote India aggressively. The Incredible India and make in
India campaign henceforth must be driven with planning assistance from industry associations, as
they will be able to give real-time pulse and need of the market and ready to support recovery.

Forecasting demand of tourism

Tourism forecasting has been an important topic of discussion and has evolved over the
decades (Liu et al., 2019; Song et al., 2019). Researchers used different forecasting
models to predict international tourism demand (Table 1). For example, Witt and Martin
(1987) used econometric models, such as Ordinary Least Square (OLS) and
CochraneOrcutt (CO), to predict international tourist demand. Song et al. (2003) applied
six different econometric models to forecast inbound international tourism demand for
Denmark. The models are static co-integration regression; two error correction model
(ECM); reduced autoregressive distributed lag model (ADLM); time-varying parameter
(TVP) approach; vector autoregressive (VAR); autoregressive integrated moving average
(ARIMA) model for six different origin countries such as Germany, Netherlands,
Norway, Sweden, UK and USA. Further, they tested the forecasting accuracy of the
models and ranked over the time horizon. The traditional time series models such as VAR
(Witt et al., 2004), BVAR (Wong et al., 2006), ARIMA (Kulendran& Wong, 2005),
MARIMA, SARIMA (Goh & Law, 2002), Statistical models like regression model,
exponential smoothing (Athanasopoulos& Hyndman, 2008), Basic structural time series
model (BSM) and causal structural time series model (STSM) (Kulendran& Witt, 2003;
Turner & Witt, 2001), Autoregressive Moving Average with External Variables
(ARMAX) (Yang et al., 2015). Witt et al. (2004) used vector autoregressive model to
forecast inbound international tourists to Denmark to predict the foreign tourist
expenditure. They also discussed the impact of foreign tourist expenditure on
employment in Denmark. Wong et al. (2006) applied the Bayesian vector autoregressive
(BVAR) model to forecast the tourism demand for Hong Kong, compared with the VAR
model, and showed that the BVAR model outperforms the VAR model. Wong et al.
(2007) forecasted tourism demand for Hong Kong from ten different countries using four
different forecasting models: ARIMA, ADLM, ECM and VAR. They observed that the

22
performance of single and combined forecasting models varies according to the origin-
destination tourist flow. Goh and Law (2002) used Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated
Moving Average (SARIMA) and Multiplicative-seasonal Autoregressive Integrated
Moving Average (MARIMA) considering intervention like the bird flu epidemic
(December 1997–January 1998) in Hong Kong, Asian economic crisis and the reversion
of Hong Kong to China sovereignty and SAR administration to predict the inbound
tourism demand for Hong Kong. They proved that the SARIMA and MARIMA model's
performance outperforms the other time series models through comparative study.

Machine and deep learning methods are more adaptable and can generate high accurate
result (Law et al., 2019; Polyzos et al., 2020). Due to their flexibility and versatile nature,
neural networks are considered powerful methods that help classify patterns and estimate
continuous variables and forecasting. Hence, it can be applied to a data series of
linear/non-linear or stationary/non-stationary type. All these properties make the ANN
model advantageous over various traditional methods, such as AR, MA and ARIMA
time-series models etc. Several researchers have used ANN model for forecasting the
tourist demand, consumer behaviour and demand forecasting, segmentation and
positioning analysis etc. (Bloom, 2002, 2004, 2005; Burger et al., 2001; Sirakaya et al.,
2005; Uysal& El Roubi, 1999). The major benefit of using such a methodology is that
ANN models are non-parametric data-driven models that capture functional relationships
with the empirical data. Cho (2003) investigates the application of three forecasting
techniques: exponential smoothing, ARIMA and ANN to predict the inbound demand of
Hong Kong and found that ANN is the best method, specifically for unclear data patterns.
Palmer et al. (2006) described the step-by-step approach to design neural network (NN)
for tourism forecasting. They considered data on tourism expenditure in the Balearic
Islands, Spain, from each quarter of 1986 through the year 2000 and verified that ANN is
a suitable model for long-term forecasting, as data accuracy does not affect with
expanding the forecasting horizon. Claveria and Torra (2014) predicted inbound tourism
demand for Catalonia, Spain from different countries using neural network. They verified
the forecasting performance ARIMA and self-exciting threshold auto regressions
(SETAR). Law (2000) predicted the outbound tourism demand for Taiwan to Hong Kong
using a backpropagation neural network. The author found that the backpropagation
neural network's forecasting accuracy is high compared to the regression model, time
series (Holt’s, moving average and naive) models, and feed-forward neural network
models. Höpken et al. (2020) predicted tourist arrival using a web-search index with
autoregressive approach and compare two methods: ARIMA and ANN. They found that
Google trend data increase tourist prediction performance, and ANN outperforms the
ARIMA model. Yao and Cao (2020) empirically investigated neural network enhanced
hidden Markovian structural time series model (NehM-STSM). The proposed model
achieves a better performance than the chosen benchmark models for two error measures
and most forecasting horizons.

23
Impact on COVID-19on tourism economy.
The foreign exchange earnings (FEE) from tourism is one of the major revenue source for the
Government of India. The FEE is the revenue generated by inbound foreign tourists, and
decrease in foreign tourists’ number leads to reduce FEE. The entire world is affected by
COVID-19, including India. Following the border closure, cancellation of international flights,
and a series of lockdowns, the tourist’s arrival rate in India has been highly affected. To show the
impact of COVID-19 on FEE, a comparative analysis has been done. Here, it has assumed that
the effect of COVID-19 will remain until next year. The FEE depends on the arrival of the
number of tourists and exchange rate. To analyse the impact, the monthly data related to number
of tourists, FEE from tourism and exchange rate are collected from 31st January 1993 to 31st
March 2020 from CMIE (economicoutlook, 2020).

The scatter plot describes the high correlation between foreign tourists’ arrival and foreign
exchange earnings, and the calculated correlation coefficient is 0.9718. It signifies that both are
highly correlated. Similarly, depicts the correlation between exchange rate earnings and foreign
exchange earnings, and the calculated correlation coefficient is 0.8570. This signifies that both
are highly correlated. Thus, the arrival of the number of foreign tourists and the exchange rate
are taken as input to predict the FEE and to measure the impact of COVID-19.

24
Learning

1. How to get the new way with some measures

2. Use of digitalization.
3. Use of limited resource
4. Handle the issues of fiancé

Conclusion

Tourism is at a crossroads and the measures put in place today will shape the tourism of
tomorrow. The survival of businesses throughout the tourism ecosystem is at risk without the
continued government support. While addressing the immediate socio-economic impacts of
COVID-19 on tourism and accelerating recovery to protect millions of livelihoods, this crisis is an
opportunity to rethink the tourism sector and its contribution to the SDGs, nature, and the Paris
Agreement on climate change, an opportunity to work towards a more sustainable, inclusive
and resilient tourism. The COVID-19 crisis is a watershed moment to align the effort of
sustaining livelihoods dependent on tourism to the SDGs. There is a need to consider the long-
term implications of this crisis while capitalising on digitalisation, supporting the low carbon
transition, and promoting the structural transformation needed to build a stronger and a
resource efficient future. Only through collective action and international cooperation will we
be able to transform tourism, advance its contribution to the 2030 Agenda and its shift towards
an inclusive and carbon neutral sector that harnesses innovation and digitalization, embraces
local values and communities and creates decent job opportunities for all, leaving no one
behind.

25
The tourism sector has dramatically affected by the widespread of COVID-19 and may remain
for a longer time. The arrival of foreign tourists to India from different parts of the world has
reduced by 68% in March 2020 compared to the previous month. It has a great impact on
revenue generated from tourism in the form of FEE. A suitable forecasting model can help in
strategic and operational decision-making. Hence, this study has predicted the number of
foreign tourists using the ANN model with respect to COVID-19 outbreak. Also, the FEE has
been predicted using the number of tourists and exchange rates. Further, to analyse the impact
of COVID-19, four different scenarios are generated, and impact has been measured through
predicting FEE.

Our findings suggest that if the tourism sector and policies are not restructured, then the FEE
will fall below USD 1790.53 million and maybe entirely lost. If it is managed at some level
though reforming policies, then the FEE value will be at least USD 13351.07 million. In this
paper, we make three contributions as well as novelties. Firstly, a well understanding of the
mutual interplay between the COVID-19 pandemic and the tourism sector is well explained
through a novel approach. Secondly, an enriching contribution is made by predicting foreign
tourist arrivals and FEE with the number of foreign tourists and exchange rates (monthly data)
as an input to the ANN model. Finally, a decision has been proposed for the various
stakeholders of the tourism industry to help recover the sector from the current scenario,
which is quite novel. Consequently, the findings presented in this paper will help the
stakeholders and the policymakers facilitate strategic and operational planning based on the
forecasted value. As per the study, FEE is reduced because of foreign tourists’ fewer arrivals in
this pandemic outbreak. Therefore, instead of investing more in adding new resources,
policymakers and stakeholders can think about making the existing resource more efficient and
effective.

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