Annual Report on the Monitoring of

Forecast Accuracy Standards for

Must Dispatch Generating Units
Performance Report as of December 2020

Report Date: February 2021

Independent Electricity Market Operator of the Philippines, Inc.
 Monthly Report on the Monitoring of Forecast Accuracy Standards for
Must Dispatch Generating Units as of December 2020

Table of Contents

1. Introduction ................................................................................................................................... 3
2. Overview on the Calculation of the Forecast Performance ....................................................... 4
Calculating the Hourly Forecast Percentage Error......................................................... 4
Calculating the Mean Absolute Percentage Error .......................................................... 5
Calculating the Perc95 ..................................................................................................... 5
3. Results of Forecast Performance for December 2020 .............................................................. 6
4. Compliance to the Submission of Projected Output for Must Dispatch Generating Units in
December 2020 ............................................................................................................................. 8
5. Updated MAPE Performance for Each Must Dispatch Generating Unit .................................10
6. Updated Perc95 Performance for Each Must Dispatch Generating Unit ................................12
7. Results of Simulation on FAS Compliance using the Proposed Changes ..............................14
Results of Simulation - MAPE Performance .................................................................14
Results of Simulation - Perc95 Performance ...............................................................16
8. Observations and Recommendations .......................................................................................18
Use of Dependable Capacity instead of Registered Capacity .....................................18
Revision of the FAS Manual in anticipation of the implementation of the 5-minute
dispatch interval as prescribed in the Enhanced WESM Design and Operations ...............18
Updates on DOE Recommendations on FAS Report ...................................................18

Page 2 of 19
 Monthly Report on the Monitoring of Forecast Accuracy Standards for
Must Dispatch Generating Units as of December 2020

1. Introduction

Consistent with the Grid Code, the WESM Rules require must dispatch generating units to comply
with the forecast accuracy standards in respect of their submitted hourly projected outputs.

Effective last 15 June 2017, the WESM Manual on the “Procedures for the Monitoring of Forecast
Accuracy Standards for Must Dispatch Generating Units Issue 1” (commonly known as FAS
Manual) provides that each must dispatch generating unit shall comply with the established
standards with respect to its Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) and Percentile 95 of the
forecasting error (Perc95). Such standards are different for each technology as detailed in the
table below.

Table 1. Standards for Forecast Accuracy for Must Dispatch Generating Units
Technology Standards
MAPE Perc95
Solar < 18% < 30%
Wind < 18% < 30%
Run of River Hydro* < 9% < 30%
* Subject to the determination of the ERC/Grid Management Committee

WESM Rules Clause 3.5.5.11 then require the Market Operator to report to the PEM Board and the
DOE the monthly and annual compliance of each must dispatch generating unit to the forecast
accuracy standards with respect to its projected outputs. As such, this annual report is being
made in compliance to aforementioned requirement.

This report shall also be including information on the compliance of must dispatch generating
units with the submission of projected output as stated in Clause 3.5.5.5, Clause 3.5.9.1, Clause
3.5.11.3, and Clause 3.5.11.4 of the WESM Rules during the same study period aforementioned.

This report shall also be published in the Market Information Website as provided for in Clause
3.1.2 of the FAS Manual.

Note that the report as of December 2020 shall also serve as the annual report for the entire billing
year of 2020.

Page 3 of 19
 Monthly Report on the Monitoring of Forecast Accuracy Standards for
Must Dispatch Generating Units as of December 2020

2. Overview on the Calculation of the Forecast Performance

As previously stated, the Forecast Performance of must dispatch generating units are evaluated
based on MAPE and Perc95, where both are calculated over a specific study period.

MAPE and Perc95 are collective measures that are based on the Hourly Forecast Percentage
Errors.

Calculating the Hourly Forecast Percentage Error

For each trading interval, the must dispatch generating unit’s accuracy is measured by calculating
the Forecast Percentage Error using the following formula.

PQi,t - MQi,t
FPEi,t = | | x 100%
ICQi

Where:
FPEi,t refers to the Forecast Percentage Error (in %) of must dispatch generating unit i for
trading interval t
PQi,t refers to the Projected Quantity (in MWh) of must dispatch generating unit i for
trading interval t. It shall be computed as follows.
ILi,t + POi,t
PQi,t =
2
Where:
ILi,t refers to the Initial Loading (in MW) of must dispatch generating unit i
used in the scheduling process for trading interval t
POi,t refers to the Projected Output (in MW) of must dispatch generating
unit i used in the scheduling process for trading interval t

MQi,t refers to the Metered Quantity (in MWh) of must dispatch generating unit i for trading
interval t as provided by the Metering Services Provider
ICQi,t refers to the Installed Capacity Quantity (in MWh) of must dispatch generating unit i
for trading interval t. It is calculated as the installed capacity (in MW) of must dispatch
generating unit i provided during registration in the WESM by the duration of a trading
interval (in hours)

Page 4 of 19
 Monthly Report on the Monitoring of Forecast Accuracy Standards for
Must Dispatch Generating Units as of December 2020

Calculating the Mean Absolute Percentage Error

The MAPE is the average of the Forecast Percentage Errors for a given period. It is calculated as
follows.

np
∑t=1 FPEi,t
MAPEi,p =
np

Where:
MAPEi,p refers to the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (in %) of must dispatch generating
unit i for period p
FPEi,t refers to the Forecast Percentage Error (in %) of must dispatch generating unit i for
trading interval t
np refers to the number of trading intervals within period p wherein forecast percentage
errors were calculated

Calculating the Perc95

The Perc95 of a must dispatch generating unit for a period shall refer to the value (in %) not
exceeding 95% of the forecast percentage errors of the must dispatch generating unit during the
period and shall be calculated using the NIST method.

For a more detailed explanation of the NIST Method, please refer to Appendix A of the FAS
Manual.

Page 5 of 19
 Monthly Report on the Monitoring of Forecast Accuracy Standards for
Must Dispatch Generating Units as of December 2020

3. Results of Forecast Performance for December 2020

This annual report covers the must dispatch generating units’ forecast performance as of
December 2020 (26 December 2019 until 25 December 2020). Included in this report are the
exclusions due to Market Intervention and SO restrictions on the must dispatch generating units’
output.

As of 25 December 2020, there are 58 generators registered as must-dispatch generating units in

the WESM. A total of 5 Run-of-River Hydro were added to this year’s list, specifically BALUGBOG,
BINENG, CALIBATO, MAJAYJAY, and PALAKPAKIN. On the other hand, HOME DEPOT (Solar
plant), was already de-registered.

Table 2. Summary of WESM Registration on Must Dispatch Generating Units as of 25 December

2020
Technology No. of Luzon Resources No. of Visayas Resources

Run of River Hydro 13 --

Solar 26 12

Wind 5 2

Total 44 14

The following table lists the aggregate performance of must dispatch generating units per grid
(or region) and per technology. From the table, both standards were met by all technologies in
each region.

Table 3. Aggregate Performance of Must Dispatch Generating Units per Region/Technology

MAPE PERC95

Actual Actual Performance,

Technology Region Threshold, Threshold,
Performance, % %
% %
2019 20201 2019 20202

Run of River
Luzon < 9% 1.79% 2.42% < 30% 6.68% 9.22%
Hydro

Solar Luzon < 18% 5.42% 3.67% < 30% 15.34% 14.98%

1 MAPE Performance as of December 2020 (26 December 2019 to 25 December 2020)

2 PERC95 Performance as of December 2020 (26 December 2019 to 25 December 2020)

Page 6 of 19
 Monthly Report on the Monitoring of Forecast Accuracy Standards for
Must Dispatch Generating Units as of December 2020

MAPE PERC95

Actual Actual Performance,

Technology Region Threshold, Threshold,
Performance, % %
% %
2019 20201 2019 20202

Wind Luzon < 18% 6.30% 6.18% < 30% 17.43% 18.29%

Solar Visayas < 18% 5.87% 3.48% < 30% 17.99% 15.40%

Wind Visayas < 18% 9.82% 8.52% < 30% 28.15% 25.17%

This year (2020) saw more generating units being able to meet the standards in comparison to
last year (2019) with the exception of Visayas wind farms that saw one less generating unit
meeting FAS’ PERC95 requirement.

Table 4. Must Dispatch Generating Units that Met Forecast Accuracy Standards
MAPE PERC95

No. of
No. of No. of Resources Resources
Technology
Resources Threshold, % Within Threshold Threshold, % Within
Threshold

2019 20203 2019 20204

Run of River
13 < 9% 6 7 < 30% 6 7
Hydro

Solar 38 < 18% 34 37 < 30% 12 16

Wind 7 < 18% 7 7 < 30% 4 3

The actual individual performance of each must dispatch generating units are provided in Table
5 and Table 6 of this document.

3 No. of resources within MAPE Threshold as of December 2020 (26 December 2019 to 25 December 2020)
4 No. of resources within PERC95 Threshold as of December 2020 (26 December 2019 to 25 December 2020)

Page 7 of 19
 Monthly Report on the Monitoring of Forecast Accuracy Standards for
Must Dispatch Generating Units as of December 2020

4. Compliance to the Submission of Projected Output for Must Dispatch Generating

Units in December 2020

Although the compliance to submit Projected Outputs is not required to be measured in the FAS
Manual, this report opted to include the current state of such a compliance by the must dispatch
generating units.

The following table shows the number of times each must dispatch generating unit actually
submitted a projected output in the WESM for its actual generation output. It was calculated using
the following formula for each must dispatch generating unit i.

No. of times With Projected Output AND Actual Generationi

%Compliancei =
No. of times with Actual Generationi

Table 5. Summary of Compliance to the Submission of Projected Output for Must Dispatch
Generating Units

2020
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
RUN OF RIVER HYDRO
AMPUHAW 100% 100% 96% 99% 99% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
BAKSIP 100% 100% 99% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 99%
BINENG 100% 95% 99% 100% 97% 98% 100%
IRISAN 1 -- -- -- -- 97% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
IRISAN 3 -- -- -- -- 97% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
SABANGAN 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
SAL-ANGAN -- -- -- -- -- -- -- 98% 100% 98% 99% 100%
SMITH BELL HYDRO 99% 98% -- -- 84% 82% 40% 98% 96% 98% 99% 100%
BALUGBOG HEPP 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
BARIT MINI HYDRO -- 75% 49% 11% 46% 41% 33% -- -- 94% 80% 20%
CALIBATO HEPP -- 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
MAJAYJAY HYDRO 0% 0%
PALAKPAKIN HEPP 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
SOLAR PLANTS IN LUZON
ARMENIA SOLAR 100% 99% 95% 96% 94% 95% 94% 95% 98% 100% 100% 100%
BOSUNG 100% 100% 100% 100% 98% 95% 95% 98% 100% 100% 100% 100%
BATAAN SOLAR 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
BULACAN SOLAR 100% 100% 100% 100% 97% 96% 95% 97% 99% 100% 100% 100%
BURGOS PHASE 1 83% 83% 86% 86% 85% 86% 86% 86% 90% 97% 94% 87%
BURGOS PHASE 2 83% 83% 85% 86% 85% 86% 86% 86% 84% 94% 94% 94%

Page 8 of 19
 Monthly Report on the Monitoring of Forecast Accuracy Standards for
Must Dispatch Generating Units as of December 2020

2020
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
CABANTUAN SOLAR 92% 92% 88% 81% 81% 82% 84% 86% 87% 88% 91% 91%
CLARK SOLAR 100% 98% 95% 93% 94% 95% 94% 96% 97% 100% 100% 100%
CONCEPCION SOLAR 85% 88% 88% 82% 79% 80% 79% 81% 83% 87% 93% 99%
DALAYAP 100% 98% 95% 95% 94% 94% 94% 95% 98% 100% 100% 100%
MIRAE ASIA 100% 100% 99% 95% 93% 93% 94% 95% 98% 100% 100% 99%
MARIVELES SOLAR 100% 100% 97% 95% 94% 84% 25% 96% 99% 100% 100% 100%
PETROSOLAR 1 92% 93% 92% 91% 95% 96% 96% 99% 100% 100% 96% 97%
PETROSOLAR 2 98% 98% 100% 96% 90% 93% 92% 95% 99% 98% 92% 96%
RASLAG 1 100% 100% 99% 97% 93% 93% 93% 96% 98% 99% 99% 100%
RASLAG 2 100% 100% 99% 95% 88% 89% 90% 95% 98% 100% 100% 100%
SPARC BULACAN 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
SUBIC SOLAR 100% 100% 97% 93% 93% 94% 93% 97% 99% 100% 100% 100%
YH GREEN 100% 100% 94% 91% 91% 94% 93% 94% 97% 99% 99% 100%
ZAMBALES SOLAR 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
ECOPARK SOLAR 94% 99% 97% 90% 86% 87% 87% 89% 94% 95% 99% 100%
SM NORTH 100% 100% 99% 98% 95% 94% 94% 96% 100% 100% 100% 100%
VALENZUELA SOLR 100% 100% 96% 95% 88% 89% 88% 91% 95% 96% 99% 100%
ABSOLUT DISTIL 83% 80% 76% 29% 72% 71% 71% 73% 73% 79% 82% 83%
CALATAGAN SOLAR 100% 97% 93% 93% 93% 93% 93% 94% 96% 100% 100% 100%
MAJESTICS 79% 91% 92% 89% 85% 82% 84% 85% 91% 92% 93% 94%
SOLAR PLANTS IN VISAYAS
FIRST SOLEQ 91% 92% 92% 92% 92% 91% 92% 92% 92% 93% 93% 93%
SULU ELECTRIC 89% 89% 93% 92% 92% 92% 92% 85% 89% 94% 91% 92%
TOLEDO SOLAR 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
LA CARLOTA SOLAR 100% 100% 99% 100% 95% 95% 96% 99% 99% 99% 99% 100%
HELIOS 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 98% 95% 99% 100% 100% 100% 100%
MANAPLA SOLAR 100% 100% 100% 97% 99% 97% 97% 100% 99% 99% 99% 100%
MONTE SOLAR 100% 100% 100% 98% 96% 98% 95% 98% 98% 96% 97% 100%
SACASOL 1 95% 100% 100% 99% 99% 99% 98% 99% 97% 96% 98% 100%
SACASOL 2 100% 100% 100% 99% 99% 99% 98% 99% 98% 96% 98% 100%
SACASUN 92% 92% 92% 92% 92% 92% 91% 91% 90% 93% 92% 92%
SILAY SOLAR 99% 99% 100% 100% 100% 97% 96% 98% 99% 100% 100% 23%
COSMO SOLAR 91% 86% 88% 91% 90% 90% 90% 83% 86% 87% 98% 96%
WIND FARMS
BURGOS WIND 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
CAPARISPISAN 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
NORTHWIND 1 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 97%
NORTHWIND 2 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 97%
PILILIA WIND 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% -- 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
PETROWIND 64% 93% 99% 100% 62% 32% 38% 64% 63% 60% 76% 86%
SAN LORENZO 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 99% 100% 100% 99% 100%

Page 9 of 19
 Monthly Report on the Monitoring of Forecast Accuracy Standards for
Must Dispatch Generating Units as of December 2020

5. Updated MAPE Performance for Each Must Dispatch Generating Unit

The following table shows the running MAPE as of December 2020. Running MAPE shall always
start from 26 December of a certain year.

MAPE PERFORMANCE
RESOURCE NAME
2019 20205
RUN OF RIVER HYDRO
AMPUHAW 2.92% 3.48%
BAKSIP 4.06% 3.20%
BINENG 4.41%
IRISAN 1 4.63% 31.15%
IRISAN 3 5.35% 4.13%
SABANGAN 2.20% 2.12%
SAL-ANGAN 3.00% 1.54%
SMITH BELL HYDRO 12.66% 2.62%
BALUGBOG HEPP 68.47%
BARIT MINI HYDRO 27.18% 11.33%
CALIBATO HEPP 18.43%
MAJAYJAY HYDRO 99.14%
PALAKPAKIN HEPP 40.86%
SOLAR PLANTS IN LUZON
ARMENIA SOLAR 12.85% 7.55%
BOSUNG 67.63% 38.16%
BATAAN SOLAR 29.28% 17.25%
BULACAN SOLAR 10.50% 6.14%
BURGOS PHASE 1 13.82% 6.46%
BURGOS PHASE 2 12.31% 5.80%
CABANATUAN SOLAR 15.29% 7.07%
CLARK SOLAR 10.15% 5.61%
CONCEPCION SOLAR 6.66% 7.78%
DALAYAP 10.22% 5.99%
MIRAE ASIA 10.56% 5.25%
MARIVELES SOLAR 15.99% 8.06%
PETROSOLAR 1 11.91% 6.67%
PETROSOLAR 2 17.27% 8.52%
RASLAG 1 12.21% 6.79%
RASLAG 2 9.89% 6.64%
SPARC BULACAN 35.34% 17.66%
SUBIC SOLAR 7.38% 4.37%

5 MAPE Performance as of December 2020 (26 December 2019 to 25 December 2020)

For the case of Sparc Bulacan, which is currently on testing and commissioning, its maximum output for the year
2019 was used as the Installed Capacity Quantity (ICQ) in calculating Forecast Percentage Error

Page 10 of 19
 Monthly Report on the Monitoring of Forecast Accuracy Standards for
Must Dispatch Generating Units as of December 2020

MAPE PERFORMANCE
RESOURCE NAME
2019 20205
YH GREEN 9.61% 4.94%
ZAMBALES SOLAR 29.54% 16.39%
ECOPARK SOLAR 15.72% 6.26%
SM NORTH 11.18% 7.12%
VALENZUELA SOLR 12.67% 6.44%
ABSOLUT DISTIL 12.29% 7.51%
CALATAGAN SOLAR 9.27% 14.01%
MAJESTICS 10.03% 4.90%
SOLAR PLANTS IN VISAYAS
FIRST SOLEQ 13.91% 7.27%
SULU ELECTRIC 13.27% 8.14%
TOLEDO SOLAR 13.25% 8.81%
LA CARLOTA SOLAR 10.40% 5.05%
HELIOS 15.14% 8.91%
MANAPLA SOLAR 11.61% 4.64%
MONTE SOLAR 9.57% 4.83%
SACASOL 1 9.30% 4.31%
SACASOL 2 9.81% 4.85%
SACASUN 8.58% 4.26%
SILAY SOLAR 10.92% 7.49%
COSMO SOLAR 5.57% 1.72%
WIND FARMS
BURGOS WIND 8.60% 8.65%
CAPARISPISAN 6.94% 6.37%
NORTHWIND 1 7.91% 9.01%
NORTHWIND 2 8.09% 8.66%
PILILIA WIND 17.75% 15.79%
PETROWIND 16.38% 17.18%
SAN LORENZO 9.93% 8.38%

Page 11 of 19
 Monthly Report on the Monitoring of Forecast Accuracy Standards for
Must Dispatch Generating Units as of December 2020

6. Updated Perc95 Performance for Each Must Dispatch Generating Unit

The following table shows the running Perc95 for as of December 2020. Running Perc95 shall
always start from 26 December of a certain year.

PERC95 PERFORMANCE
RESOURCE NAME
2019 20206
RUN OF RIVER HYDRO
AMPUHAW 11.18% 14.30%
BAKSIP 8.70% 8.94%
BINENG 22.76%
IRISAN 1 20.08% 89.42%
IRISAN 3 18.76% 18.61%
SABANGAN 9.08% 7.47%
SAL-ANGAN 11.88% 7.34%
SMITH BELL HYDRO 49.04% 15.43%
BALUGBOG HEPP 88.62%
BARIT MINI HYDRO 97.70% 86.65%
CALIBATO HEPP 50.82%
MAJAYJAY HYDRO 121.52%
PALAKPAKIN HEPP 71.51%
SOLAR PLANTS IN LUZON
ARMENIA SOLAR 46.48% 37.93%
BOSUNG 99.90% 98.95%
BATAAN SOLAR 69.49% 66.86%
BULACAN SOLAR 34.17% 31.29%
BURGOS PHASE 1 38.29% 29.47%
BURGOS PHASE 2 34.37% 27.95%
CABANATUAN SOLAR 45.28% 35.80%
CLARK SOLAR 33.50% 26.16%
CONCEPCION SOLAR 22.62% 34.95%
DALAYAP 36.65% 32.18%
MIRAE ASIA 43.44% 25.28%
MARIVELES SOLAR 61.53% 41.89%
PETROSOLAR 1 36.06% 32.71%
PETROSOLAR 2 52.19% 39.89%
RASLAG 1 42.58% 31.49%
RASLAG 2 29.26% 30.37%
SPARC BULACAN 81.43% 70.32%
SUBIC SOLAR 24.52% 20.29%

6
PERC95 Performance as of December 2020 (26 December 2019 to 25 December 2020)
For the case of Sparc Bulacan, which is currently on testing and commissioning, its maximum output for the year
2019 was used as the Installed Capacity Quantity (ICQ) in calculating Forecast Percentage Error

Page 12 of 19
 Monthly Report on the Monitoring of Forecast Accuracy Standards for
Must Dispatch Generating Units as of December 2020

PERC95 PERFORMANCE
RESOURCE NAME
2019 20206
YH GREEN 27.32% 21.25%
ZAMBALES SOLAR 68.96% 65.54%
CONCEPCION SOLAR 51.85% 29.40%
SM NORTH 26.17% 24.60%
VALENZUELA SOLR 40.30% 30.28%
ABSOLUT DISTIL 36.27% 33.88%
CALATAGAN SOLAR 28.89% 63.32%
MAJESTICS 28.42% 21.88%
SOLAR PLANTS IN VISAYAS
FIRST SOLEQ 42.09% 34.90%
SULU ELECTRIC 36.33% 36.02%
TOLEDO SOLAR 45.69% 43.93%
LA CARLOTA SOLAR 32.00% 24.45%
HELIOS 47.50% 38.98%
MANAPLA SOLAR 45.43% 21.75%
MONTE SOLAR 28.88% 21.43%
SACASOL 1 26.69% 20.38%
SACASOL 2 28.09% 22.35%
SACASUN 22.77% 18.96%
SILAY SOLAR 37.95% 41.69%
COSMO SOLAR 16.05% 7.72%
WIND FARMS
BURGOS WIND 25.95% 26.98%
CAPARISPISAN 22.53% 22.14%
NORTHWIND 1 29.79% 34.20%
NORTHWIND 2 28.77% 33.26%
PILILIA WIND 48.61% 48.51%
PETROWIND 42.73% 48.55%
SAN LORENZO 33.96% 29.67%

Page 13 of 19
 Monthly Report on the Monitoring of Forecast Accuracy Standards for
Must Dispatch Generating Units as of December 2020

7. Results of Simulation on FAS Compliance using the Proposed Changes

In this report, IEMOP has prepared a set of results measuring the performance of must-dispatch
generating units in accordance with the “Forecast Accuracy Standards (FAS) Manual for Must
Dispatch Generating Units” considering the following revised methodology.

a. Exclude intervals where both the projected output and metered quantity is zero (0) MW.
b. In the calculation of the FPE, the registered capacity is replaced with the dependable
capacity, which is based on the maximum MQ for the month.

The objective of this simulation is to show the forecast performance of must dispatch generating
units on periods it had an impact on the WESM and on the power system, as well as to gauge it
with reference of the dependable capacity.

The following sections (7.1 and 7.2) show the results of the simulation.

Results of Simulation - MAPE Performance

The following table shows the running MAPE as of December 2020 as per this simulation.
Running MAPE shall always start from 26 December of a certain year.

MAPE PERFORMANCE
RESOURCE NAME
2019 20207
RUN OF RIVER HYDRO
AMPUHAW 2.92% 5.54%
BAKSIP 4.06% 5.07%
BINENG 6.75%
IRISAN 1 4.63% 52.26%
IRISAN 3 5.35% 6.65%
SABANGAN 2.20% 2.83%
SAL-ANGAN 3.00% 4.47%
SMITH BELL HYDRO 12.66% 13.05%
BALUGBOG HEPP 73.63%
BARIT MINI HYDRO 27.18% 58.20%
CALIBATO HEPP 66.50%
MAJAYJAY HYDRO 74.53%
PALAKPAKIN HEPP 76.11%
SOLAR PLANTS IN LUZON

7
MAPE Performance as of December 2020 (26 December 2019 to 25 December 2020).
For the case of Sparc Bulacan, which is currently on testing and commissioning, its maximum output for the year
2019 was used as the Installed Capacity Quantity (ICQ) in calculating Forecast Percentage Error

Page 14 of 19
 Monthly Report on the Monitoring of Forecast Accuracy Standards for
Must Dispatch Generating Units as of December 2020

MAPE PERFORMANCE
RESOURCE NAME
2019 20207
ARMENIA SOLAR 12.85% 15.42%
BOSUNG 67.63% 109.30%
BATAAN SOLAR 29.28% 42.93%
BULACAN SOLAR 10.50% 15.53%
BURGOS PHASE 1 13.82% 14.46%
BURGOS PHASE 2 12.31% 14.84%
CABANATUAN SOLAR 15.29% 15.54%
CLARK SOLAR 10.15% 12.47%
CONCEPCION SOLAR 6.66% 24.95%
DALAYAP 10.22% 11.76%
MIRAE ASIA 10.56% 10.04%
MARIVELES SOLAR 15.99% 17.27%
PETROSOLAR 1 11.91% 17.27%
PETROSOLAR 2 17.27% 17.96%
RASLAG 1 12.21% 16.58%
RASLAG 2 9.89% 19.49%
SPARC BULACAN 35.34% 38.72%
SUBIC SOLAR 7.38% 11.66%
YH GREEN 9.61% 11.05%
ZAMBALES SOLAR 29.54% 41.30%
ECOPARK SOLAR 15.72% 13.34%
SM NORTH 11.18% 18.80%
VALENZUELA SOLR 12.67% 13.13%
ABSOLUT DISTIL 12.29% 15.29%
CALATAGAN SOLAR 9.27% 27.58%
MAJESTICS 10.03% 14.18%
SOLAR PLANTS IN VISAYAS
FIRST SOLEQ 13.91% 14.68%
SULU ELECTRIC 13.27% 20.48%
TOLEDO SOLAR 13.25% 18.07%
LA CARLOTA SOLAR 10.40% 11.08%
HELIOS 15.14% 17.60%
MANAPLA SOLAR 11.61% 9.47%
MONTE SOLAR 9.57% 10.56%
SACASOL 1 9.30% 9.73%
SACASOL 2 9.81% 10.38%
SACASUN 8.58% 17.30%
SILAY SOLAR 10.92% 14.77%
COSMO SOLAR 5.57% 13.72%
WIND FARMS
BURGOS WIND 8.60% 10.07%
CAPARISPISAN 6.94% 7.15%

Page 15 of 19
 Monthly Report on the Monitoring of Forecast Accuracy Standards for
Must Dispatch Generating Units as of December 2020

MAPE PERFORMANCE
RESOURCE NAME
2019 20207
NORTHWIND 1 7.91% 10.02%
NORTHWIND 2 8.09% 9.71%
PILILIA WIND 17.75% 45.50%
PETROWIND 16.38% 16.68%
SAN LORENZO 9.93% 11.18%

Results of Simulation - Perc95 Performance

The following table shows the running Perc95 for as of 2020 as per this simulation. Running
Perc95 shall always start from 26 December of a certain year.

PERC95 PERFORMANCE
RESOURCE NAME
2019 20208
RUN OF RIVER HYDRO
AMPUHAW 11.18% 20.18%
BAKSIP 8.70% 13.47%
BINENG 30.08%
IRISAN 1 20.08% 93.23%
IRISAN 3 18.76% 27.21%
SABANGAN 9.08% 9.04%
SAL-ANGAN 11.88% 16.17%
SMITH BELL HYDRO 49.04% 55.36%
BALUGBOG HEPP 90.34%
BARIT MINI HYDRO 97.70% 155.04%
CALIBATO HEPP 93.68%
MAJAYJAY HYDRO 90.47%
PALAKPAKIN HEPP 94.36%
SOLAR PLANTS IN LUZON
ARMENIA SOLAR 46.48% 53.66%
BOSUNG 99.90% 169.75%
BATAAN SOLAR 69.49% 92.69%
BULACAN SOLAR 34.17% 54.01%
BURGOS PHASE 1 38.29% 43.30%
BURGOS PHASE 2 34.37% 45.66%
CABANATUAN SOLAR 45.28% 51.91%
CLARK SOLAR 33.50% 41.61%
CONCEPCION SOLAR 22.62% 76.62%

8
PERC95 Performance as of December 2020 (26 December 2019 to 25 December 2020).
For the case of Sparc Bulacan, which is currently on testing and commissioning, its maximum output for the year
2019 was used as the Installed Capacity Quantity (ICQ) in calculating Forecast Percentage Error

Page 16 of 19
 Monthly Report on the Monitoring of Forecast Accuracy Standards for
Must Dispatch Generating Units as of December 2020

PERC95 PERFORMANCE
RESOURCE NAME
2019 20208
DALAYAP 36.65% 46.33%
MIRAE ASIA 43.44% 39.15%
MARIVELES SOLAR 61.53% 64.50%
PETROSOLAR 1 36.06% 51.82%
PETROSOLAR 2 52.19% 53.11%
RASLAG 1 42.58% 48.77%
RASLAG 2 29.26% 56.63%
SPARC BULACAN 81.43% 87.72%
SUBIC SOLAR 24.52% 35.88%
YH GREEN 27.32% 31.80%
ZAMBALES SOLAR 68.96% 92.55%
ECOPARK SOLAR 51.85% 41.34%
SM NORTH 26.17% 42.27%
VALENZUELA SOLR 40.30% 39.95%
ABSOLUT DISTIL 36.27% 47.52%
CALATAGAN SOLAR 28.89% 74.28%
MAJESTICS 28.42% 42.62%
SOLAR PLANTS IN VISAYAS
FIRST SOLEQ 42.09% 44.72%
SULU ELECTRIC 36.33% 56.22%
TOLEDO SOLAR 45.69% 58.60%
LA CARLOTA SOLAR 32.00% 34.03%
HELIOS 47.50% 50.21%
MANAPLA SOLAR 45.43% 31.74%
MONTE SOLAR 28.88% 30.88%
SACASOL 1 26.69% 31.57%
SACASOL 2 28.09% 32.08%
SACASUN 22.77% 46.74%
SILAY SOLAR 37.95% 57.29%
COSMO SOLAR 16.05% 39.71%
WIND FARMS
BURGOS WIND 25.95% 30.10%
CAPARISPISAN 22.53% 24.67%
NORTHWIND 1 29.79% 37.38%
NORTHWIND 2 28.77% 36.86%
PILILIA WIND 48.61% 248.31%
PETROWIND 42.73% 45.00%
SAN LORENZO 33.96% 37.07%

Page 17 of 19
 Monthly Report on the Monitoring of Forecast Accuracy Standards for
Must Dispatch Generating Units as of December 2020

8. Observations and Recommendations

Here are the updates on the outstanding observations from previous FAS reports.

Use of Dependable Capacity instead of Registered Capacity

Observation: The FAS Manual uses the registered capacity as the denominator to compute for
the Forecast Percentage Errors. It is recommended that Dependable Capacity be used instead.
For example, a solar plant, which does not generate at off-peak, had a non-zero registered
capacity used in the computation for its Forecast Percentage Error. Since it did not have a
projected output and an actual generation output, it reflected a Forecast Percentage Error of 0%.
This then dilutes the overall MAPE and Perc95. The same can be said for run-of-river hydro and
wind farms that may have units on forced/maintenance outage. The methodology for determining
Dependable Capacity should also be agreed with the ERC/Grid Management Committee first so
that it is also consistent with eventual provisions in the Grid Code.

Update: There is an on-going deliberation of the rules change proposal in WESM’s Rules Change
Committee (RCC) regarding this concern.

Revision of the FAS Manual in anticipation of the implementation of the 5-minute dispatch
interval as prescribed in the Enhanced WESM Design and Operations

Observation: The FAS Manual, and its methodology, is tailored based on the 1-hour dispatch
interval of the current WESM. It should be updated prior to the implementation of the 5-minute
dispatch interval.

Update: There is an on-going deliberation of the rules change proposal in WESM’s Rules Change
Committee (RCC) regarding this concern.

Updates on DOE Recommendations on FAS Report

8.3.1. DOE Observation: On the compliance to submission of Projected Output (PO), some
resources were noted to have no submission. Specifically, SM North has been
consistently reflected with no PO value benchmarking from January 2020.

IEMOP Response: The data generated by IEMOP considered trading intervals where there
is also an actual dispatch output from the generating unit. The assumption is that if they
have an actual dispatch, they should have submitted a MW nomination. For the case of
SM North, there has been no MW snapshot data reflected from the period of 20 February

Page 18 of 19
 Monthly Report on the Monitoring of Forecast Accuracy Standards for
Must Dispatch Generating Units as of December 2020

2020 until 06 July 2020. However, IEMOP notes that non-zero MQ data was reflected
during the daytime. Upon coordination with the System Operator, they noted that snapshot
data was non-updating for SM North “due to problematic VPN link owned by solar
generating unit”. For this report, we changed our criteria for checking compliance to
submitting nominations by using metering data instead of snapshot data.

IEMOP, in coordination with NGCP, shall propose changes to the WESM Rules to ensure
compliance of generating units when maintaining their real-time monitoring facilities.

8.3.2. DOE Recommendation: IEMOP to compare the current MAPE and PERC 95
performances of generating units based on comparable periods, i.e. same period with
the prior year and/or same season, as using a running average may dilute the average
for a specific month. The proposed seasons on the Market Surveillance Committee’s
discussion paper on updated market monitoring triggers can be used

IEMOP Response: A new interactive dashboard is already available in the IEMOP website.

8.3.3. DOE Recommendation: Review the acceptable level of FAS considering seasonality
and/or quarterly standards and recommend alternative FAS with the end view of
improving accuracy of PO and pricing and scheduling in the market

IEMOP Response: This is an on-going assessment. IEMOP shall endeavor to review the
FAS and present recommendations by the end of 2020.

Page 19 of 19