Ingénieurie
Ingénieurie
& the cyber the digital of tomorrow serverless organizations interfaces marketing
imperative frontier world
The new Risk Exponentials CIO survey: No-collar Reengineering API Blockchain to Enterprise Digital
2018
core implications watch list Manifesting workforce technology imperative blockchains data reality
legacy sovereignty
Risk Exponentials CIO survey: IT Inevitable Everything- Trust Dark Machine Mixed
2017
implications watch list Navigating unbounded architecture as-a-service economy analytics intelligence reality
legacy
core Risk impact of Creating Right- Autonomic Democratized Industrialized Internet AR & VR
systems implications exponentials legacy speed IT platforms trust analytics of Things go to work
Technical In-memory Cyber Exponentials CIO as Real-time Cloud Cognitive Wearables Digital Social Industrial
2014
debt revolution security venture DevOps orchestration analytics engagement activation crowdsourcing
reversal capitalist
Big data
2012
2
Introduction
Introduction
I
N 2020, THE next stage of digital’s evolution welcomes us with the promise of emotionally intelligent
interfaces and hyperintuitive cognitive capabilities that will transform business in unpredictable ways. Yet
as we prepare for the coming decade of disruptive change, we would be wise to remember an important
point about yesteryear’s leading-edge innovations: Architects of the 1980s designed mainframe systems that
continue to run and generate business value today. Sure, they’re outmoded by today’s standards, but how
many of us will build systems that run for decades? And how’s that for a legacy?
Architecting for longevity and adaptability requires a deep understanding of both today’s realities and
tomorrow’s possibilities. It requires an appreciation for the technology and market forces driving change.
And finally, it requires a long-term commitment to focused and incremental progress.
Against this backdrop, we present Tech Trends 2020, Deloitte’s 11th annual examination of the emerging
technology trends that will affect your organization over the next 18 to 24 months. Several of this year’s
trends are responses to persistent IT challenges. Others represent technology-specific dimensions of larger
enterprise opportunities. All are poised to drive significant change.
We begin Tech Trends 2020 with a timely update on the nine macro technology forces we examined in
last year’s report. These forces—digital experience, analytics, cloud, core modernization, risk, the business
of technology, digital reality, cognitive, and blockchain—form the technology foundation upon which
organizations will build the future. This year’s update takes a fresh look at enterprise adoption of these
macro forces and how they’re shaping the trends that we predict will disrupt businesses over the next 18
to 24 months. We also look at three technologies that will likely become macro forces in their own right:
ambient experience, exponential intelligence, and quantum.
In subsequent chapters, we discuss trends that, though grounded in today’s realities, will inform the way
we work tomorrow. Our chapter on ethical technology and trust takes an in-depth look at how every aspect
of an organization that is disrupted by technology becomes an opportunity to lose—or earn—the trust of
customers, employees, and stakeholders. We follow with a discussion of human experience platforms that
will enable tomorrow’s systems to understand context and sense human emotion to respond appropriately.
Pioneering organizations are already exploring ways in which these platforms can meet the very human need
for connection.
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Tech Trends 2020
Trends evolve in unexpected ways. And often, the most interesting opportunities happen at the places where
they intersect. Several of this year’s trends represent fascinating combinations of macro forces and other
technology advances. For instance, digital twins represents the culmination of modernized cores, advanced
cognitive models, embedded sensors, and more—a recipe that is in itself a trend, even as it builds on evolving
individual technologies.
We hope Tech Trends 2020 offers the insights and inspiration you will need for the digital journey ahead.
The road from today’s realities to tomorrow’s possibilities will be long and full of surprises, so dream big and
architect accordingly.
4
TREND SUMMARY
PHYSIC AL DI G I TAL
TW IN TWI N
AG
E S GR
SS
INTEGRATION
E EG
OC AT
PR IO
N
S DA
S OR TA
S EN
Simulation
Visualization
Data sources
ANALYSIS
ACTIONS
WHAT ’S NEW
Instrumentation
Interoperability
AC Platform
TU
AT
OR AI
S
INTEGRATION
DE
CI TS
SI
ON I GH
S I NS
HUMANS
Simulated outcomes
strengthen decision-making
Digital twins: Bridging the physical and digital
DEFINITION
BY THE NUMBERS
I
MAGINE THAT YOU had a perfect digital copy of the physical
world: a digital twin. This twin would enable you to collaborate
virtually, intake sensor data and simulate conditions
Digital twins may take many forms, but they all more detailed and dynamic than ever.10 For
capture and utilize data that represents the physical longtime digital twins users, it is like moving from
world. fuzzy, black-and-white snapshots to colorful,
high-definition digital pictures. The more
Recent MarketsandMarkets research suggests that information they add from digital sources, the more
such efforts are already underway: The digital twins vivid—and revealing—the pictures become.
market—worth US$3.8 billion in 2019—is projected
to reach US$35.8 billion in value by 2025.6
Models + data = insights
What accounts for this kind of growth? And why and real value
now? After all, digital twin capabilities are not new.
Since the early 2000s, pioneering companies have Digital twin capabilities began as a tool of choice in
explored ways to use digital models to improve the engineer’s toolbox because they can streamline
their products and processes. While digital twins’
7
the design process and eliminate many aspects of
potential was clear even then, many other prototype testing. Using 3D simulations and
companies found that the connectivity, computing, human-computer interfaces such as augmented
data storage, and bandwidth required to process reality and virtual reality,11 engineers can determine
massive volumes of data involved in creating digital a product’s specifications, how it will be built
twins were cost-prohibitive.8 and with what materials, and how the design
measures against relevant policies, standards, and
Digital twins are poised regulations. It helps engineers identify potential
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Digital twins: Bridging the physical and digital
launched a digital twin project that aims to create incorporated into digital twin simulations.
virtual models of dozens of its factories. At each Likewise, IoT sensors embedded in machinery
location, IoT sensors embedded in factory or throughout supply chains can feed
machines feed performance data into AI and operational data directly into simulations,
machine learning applications for analysis. The enabling continuous real-time monitoring.
analyzed operational information is to be fed into
the digital twin simulations, which can identify • Interoperability. Over the past decade, the
opportunities for workers to perform predictive ability to integrate digital technology with
maintenance, optimize output, and limit waste the real world has improved dramatically.
from substandard products. 13
Much of this improvement can be
attributed to enhanced industry standards
Smart city initiatives are also using digital twins for for communications between IoT sensors,
applications addressing traffic congestion operational technology hardware, and vendor
remediation, urban planning, and much more. efforts to integrate with diverse platforms.
Singapore’s ambitious Virtual Singapore initiative
enables everything from planning for cell towers • Visualization. The sheer volume of data
and solar cells to simulating traffic patterns and required to create digital twin simulations can
foot traffic. One potential use may be to enable complicate analysis and make efforts to gain
emergency evacuation planning and routing during meaningful insights challenging. Advanced data
the city’s annual street closures for Formula 1 visualization can help meet this challenge by
racing.14 filtering and distilling information in real time.
The latest data visualization tools go far beyond
basic dashboards and standard visualization
What’s new? capabilities to include interactive 3D, VR
and AR-based visualizations, AI-enabled
Over the course of the last decade, deployment of visualizations, and real-time streaming.
digital twin capabilities has accelerated due to a
number of factors: • Instrumentation. IoT sensors, both
embedded and external, are becoming smaller,
• Simulation. The tools for building digital more accurate, cheaper, and more powerful.
twins are growing in power and sophistication. With improvements in networking technology
It is now possible to design complex what-if and security, traditional control systems can be
simulations, backtrack from detected real- leveraged to have more granular, timely, and
world conditions, and perform millions of accurate information on real-world conditions
simulation processes without overwhelming to integrate with the virtual models.
systems. Further, with the number of vendors
increasing, the range of options continues to • Platform. Increased availability of and
grow and expand. Finally, machine learning access to powerful and inexpensive computing
functionality is enhancing the depth and power, network, and storage are key enablers
usefulness of insights. of digital twins. Some software companies are
making significant investments in cloud-based
• New sources of data. Data from real- platforms, IoT, and analytics capabilities that
time asset monitoring technologies such as will enable them to capitalize on the digital
LIDAR (light detection and ranging) and twins trend. Some of these investments are
FLIR (forward-looking infrared) can now be part of an ongoing effort to streamline the
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Tech Trends 2020
development of industry-specific digital twin And with the cost of sensors dropping, how many
use cases. sensors is enough? Balancing the cost/benefit
analysis is critical. Modern aircraft engines can
have thousands or tens of thousands of sensors,
Costs versus benefits generating terabytes of data every second.
Combined with digital twins, machine learning,
The AI and machine learning algorithms that and predictive models, manufacturers are
power digital twins require large volumes of data, providing recommendations to help pilots optimize
and in many cases, data from the sensors on the fuel consumption, help maintenance be proactive,
production floor may have been corrupted, lost, or and help fleets manage costs.15 Most use cases,
simply not collected consistently in the first place. however, require only a modest number of
So teams should begin collecting data now, strategically placed sensors to detect key inputs,
particularly in areas with the largest number of outputs, and stages within the process.
issues and the highest outage costs. Taking steps to
develop the necessary infrastructure and data
management approach now can help shorten your Models beyond
time to benefit.
In the coming years, we expect to see digital twins
deployed broadly across industries for multiple use
Balancing the cost/benefit cases. For logistics, manufacturing, and supply
generating terabytes of etc.) will be taken for granted. And without human
intervention, the “control towers” will be able to
data every second. take corrective actions by directing inventory
transfers, adjusting process steps on an assembly
line, or rerouting containers.
Even in cases where digital twin simulations are
being created for new processes, systems, and Organizations making the transition from selling
devices, it’s not always possible to perfectly products to selling bundled products and services,
instrument the process. For chemical and or selling as-a-service, are pioneering new digital
biological reactions or extreme conditions, it may twin use cases. Connecting a digital twin to
not be possible to directly measure the process embedded sensors and using it for financial
itself; in some cases, it may not be cost-effective or analysis and projections enables better refinement
practical to instrument the physical objects. As a and optimization of projections, pricing, and upsell
result, organizations need to look to proxies (for opportunities.
example, relying on the instrumentation and
sensors in a vehicle rather than putting sensors For example, companies could monitor for higher
into tires) or things that are possible to detect (for wear-and-tear usage and offer additional warranty
example, heat or light coming from chemical or or maintenance options. Or organizations could
biological reactions). sell output or throughput as-a-service in industries
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Digital twins: Bridging the physical and digital
as varied as farming, transportation, and smart entire ecosystems. Creating a digital simulation of
buildings. As capabilities and sophistication grow, the complete customer life cycle or of a supply
expect to see more companies seeking new chain that includes not only first-tier suppliers but
monetization strategies for products and services, their suppliers, may provide an insight-rich macro
modeled on digital twins. view of operations, but it would also require
incorporating external entities into internal digital
ecosystems. Today, few organizations seem
Modeling the digital future comfortable with external integration beyond
point-to-point connections. Overcoming this
As the digital twins trend accelerates in the coming hesitation could be an ongoing challenge but,
years, more organizations may explore ultimately, one that is worth the effort. In the
opportunities to use digital twins to optimize future, expect to see companies use blockchain to
processes, make data-driven decision in real time, break down information silos, and then validate
and design new products, services, and business and feed that information into digital twin
models. Sectors that have capital-intensive assets simulations. This could free up previously
and processes like manufacturing, utilities, and inaccessible data in volumes sufficient to make
energy are pioneering digital twin use cases already. simulations more detailed, dynamic, and
Others will follow as early adopters demonstrate potentially valuable than ever.
first-mover advantage in their respective sectors.
It’s time to transition your digital organization
Longer term, realizing digital twins’ full promise from black-and-white to color. Are you ready?
may require integrating systems and data across
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Tech Trends 2020
A
IRSERVICES AUSTRALIA IS preparing for While still in development, the digital twin project
the aviation industry’s next evolution. As is also serving as a proving ground for enhancing
the continent’s provider of air navigation Airservices’ traditional ways of working. The
services, it expects the volume of conventional company’s heritage is built on safely delivering
flights in its airspace to double over the next two navigation services 24 hours a day, 365 days a year.
decades. Meanwhile, the emergence of unmanned With an unwavering focus on safe, efficient, and
aerial vehicles in low altitude airspace—from reliable service delivery, the increasing airspace
aerial taxis to delivery drones—is accelerating the complexity is driving Airservices to explore new
need for new intelligent systems, compounding an solutions.
already difficult job.
The digital twin project is helping change
Airservices is addressing these challenges by Airservices’ view of what’s possible. The team
launching initiatives that will enable it to shift to piloted an Agile development approach to improve
leveraging the value of data and providing the time to market while preserving the focus on safety.
information management services of the future. The teams are delivering working software at a
One of these initiatives is to explore how a digital faster pace—iterating, testing, and learning in short
twin, combined with IoT and machine learning sprints—and continuing to provide safe, accurate
capabilities, could enhance Airservices’ ability to predictions. And while Airservices people have
manage air traffic today and in the years to come. deep aeronautical expertise, the company also
needed specialized technical knowledge to build
The Service Strategy team, led by Mick Snell,16 and implement advanced analytic capabilities. The
kicked off its digital twin development project in team filled that gap with vendors and advisers who
early 2019 with a practical objective: determine offer highly relevant experience and off-the-shelf
whether a digital twin can enhance Airservices’ technology.
ability to manage its current air traffic network. For
example, could it be used to enhance flight routes, Meanwhile, the team continues to uncover relevant
optimize takeoff times, and reduce delays? use cases for the digital twin. For example, air
traffic controllers currently work in an assigned
The team began by developing a digital twin of airspace regardless of traffic volume. To optimize
Airservices’ air traffic network using historic air the controllers’ workload, the team plans to use the
traffic data. The team has completed four proofs digital twin to assign airspace to controllers based
of concept proving out the original objective and on predicted customer demand rather than fixed
is looking forward to piloting them in parallel with geographic locations.
existing air traffic control systems. The proofs of
concept were able to optimize flight routes based Optimization is an extraordinarily complex issue
on real-time conditions to provide better traffic that requires volumes of real-time data to support
flow management. what-if scenarios on the fly to help air traffic
controllers to make faster, smarter decisions. The
digital twin can also enable Airservices customers
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Digital twins: Bridging the physical and digital
(pilots) to optimize flights based on what’s most of scenarios for managing the multidimensional
important in the moment. For example, optimizing airspace of the future.
airspace and routing helps increase on-time
arrivals and saves fuel, but a pilot may decide to With the proof-of-concept phase complete, the
trade fuel for additional speed to avoid passengers team is moving into preproduction. Members will
missing their connections. be running trials with current data for several more
months and then move into full-scale production,
Eventually, Airservices plans to use digital twins planned for 2020. Snell reports, “We’ve been able
to develop and test strategies for dealing with to accelerate to an outcome far faster—we’ve come
disruptive innovations likely to affect its airspace. further in the last eight months than in the last
Strategists will be able to quickly test a wide range eight years.”
B
RIDGESTONE, THE WORLD’S largest tire chain, with the goal of enhancing profitability,
and rubber manufacturer, is transforming sustaining competitive advantage, reducing
to become a leader in mobility solutions. time-to-market, and delivering leading-edge tire-
The company is reimagining its core business as-a-service offerings.
by developing digital capabilities that will
enable it to revolutionize tire management European fleets are gradually shifting to a price-
services to its portfolio of offerings addressing per-kilometer (PPK) subscription model, a way for
vehicle manufacturers, fleet operators, and fleet operators to optimize cash flow and reduce
individual drivers. total cost of ownership. But while the business
model is simple, setting the appropriate price
While the business model per kilometer is anything but. A tire’s lifespan is
heavily influenced by a myriad of factors, including
is simple, setting the load, speed, road conditions, and driving behavior.
appropriate price per A digital twin can provide insight into how these
interrelated conditions affect tire performance by
kilometer is anything but. simulating various driving conditions. But without
real-world data inputs for the digital twin, setting
Digital twin technology is at the heart of a price that hits the sweet spot at which the PPK is
Bridgestone’s transformational journey. The competitive—and sustainably profitable—is difficult
company has used digital twin simulations if not impossible.
augmented by sensor data as an R&D tool for
several years to improve tire life and performance, Bridgestone took a strategic leap by entering the
but that’s just the beginning. Jerome Boulet, digital PPK market with a product priced to win business
strategy director, and Hans Dorfi, director of from large fleets. The company used this initial
digital engineering,17 together with their teams, are install base to collect performance data that was
developing sophisticated digital twins to eventually then fed into advanced analytics algorithms.
deliver insights across Bridgestone’s entire value
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Tech Trends 2020
According to Dorfi, “Some people ask, ‘Why do tires are being used in real time, enabling the
you need a digital twin if you have big data—why company to help fleets select the appropriate tires
not just run analytics?’ I explain that while for their specific driving conditions and provide
analytics plays a major role, it only augments the customized insights into how they can reduce tire
digital twin. The digital twin is able to capture the wear or avoid breakdowns. As the digital model
multidimensional performance envelope of tires becomes more and more accurate, Bridgestone will
and can also be applied to product in development, address increasingly advanced use cases for its PPK
where no data is yet available.” He sees the digital business model.
twin as a key component of Bridgestone’s digital
infrastructure. Incoming sensor data is augmented, Today, Bridgestone is using digital technologies
cleaned, and processed; then digital simulations to add more value for its fleet customers. Over
and analytics are applied to derive insights that time, the company intends to expand its use of
inform decisions around maintenance, rotations, digital twin technology to connect its entire value
and other factors that can deliver more value for chain, from drivers and fleet managers to retailers,
Bridgestone and its customers. distributors, and manufacturers. Looking ahead,
leaders see opportunities to inform safety protocols
Bridgestone continues to enhance the digital twins. in a world that includes self-driving vehicles.
The 2019 acquisition of WebFleet Solutions and 18
“We’re making sure we have the enablers in place
the development of next-generation sensors will that will take us into the future,” Dorfi says. “And
enable Bridgestone to learn how vehicles and that’s where digital twin technology comes in.”
T
AKEDA PHARMACEUTICALS IS constantly Pistek is always looking for ways to accelerate
seeking scientific breakthroughs to deliver experimentation and business processes.
transformative therapies to patients
worldwide. Christoph Pistek19 leads innovation Even in the digital age, pharmaceutical
during the company’s development life cycle, manufacturing processes may contain manual
translating promising research ideas into tangible steps. For example, making biologics, vaccines,
medical products. His team also develops processes and other pharma products derived from living
for how commercial manufacturing partners will organisms involve biochemical reactions, which
actually make the products. can be variable and difficult to measure, making
automation challenging. And no one has yet
Because the industry is tightly regulated with strict perfected a method for automatically progressing
quality control mandates, any process innovation from one manufacturing step to the next. True
must be thoroughly tested in the development end-to-end manufacturing automation has become
lab for compliance before being introduced to the industry’s “holy grail,” Pistek says.
the manufacturing floor. It can take up to 15
years to bring a new medicine to patients, so This is where digital twins come in. They help his
team accelerate experimentation, develop new
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Digital twins: Bridging the physical and digital
manufacturing approaches, and generate data to over time while still in development.” The end
enable more informed decisions and predictions goal is a digital twin that can control and steer the
that could help automate complex chemical and automation process without human intervention.
biochemical processes.
In Takeda’s development labs, the ecosystem for
To that end, Pistek and his development team this integrated approach is up and running for
build sophisticated virtual representations of the one modality: biologics, which is the company’s
manufacturing processes in their development fastest-growing category and involves one of
labs. The team builds a digital twin for each process pharma’s most complex manufacturing processes.
step and then links all parts via an overall digital The foundational work is complete—the twins
twin that controls and automates the flow from one are operational, the architecture is built, and the
step to another, forming an end-to-end simulation method is in place.
of the manufacturing process.
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Tech Trends 2020
MY TAKE
P
EOPLE RELATE TO the frustration that traffic congestion creates—and are dissatisfied that it often
takes decades to build infrastructure improvements. Our mission is to plan and develop transportation
systems that accommodate San Diego’s growing population and healthy economy, while meeting
government requirements for improving traffic flow, air quality, and greenhouse gas emissions. And of
course, we are working with our various communities to build public support
for our anticipated recommendations. Anything we can do to get projects
underway quickly can shave months or even years off the timeline.
These are the reasons SANDAG planners and data modelers are developing
a nimble digital twin—or “sketch planning” tool—based on FutureScape™, a
modeling and simulation platform that creates digital replicas of large systems,
RAY TRAYNOR like those in a city or an entire region. We’re using FutureScape to complement
CHIEF PLANNING AND our government-mandated travel demand model, a macro simulation tool we
INNOVATION OFFICER,
refer to as an Activity-Based Model.
SAN DIEGO ASSOCIATION OF
GOVERNMENTS (SANDAG)
Regulators require that we run our proposals through the model to certify that
the proposals meet federal and state government criteria. It’s a deliberate, arduous process that requires
months of calibration and testing and processing times that can take weeks to complete. The new sketch
tool will enable us to quickly evaluate a wider range of traditional and innovative transportation options. The
Activity-Based Model will process the most promising solutions to certify that the proposed transportation
solutions meet regulatory requirements.
For example, one of our goals is to relieve rush-hour congestion between San Diego’s most populated
residential areas and the region’s largest employment center. Widening roads is the traditional go-to solution
in our car-oriented region, but we believe the sketch tool will enable us to compare road-widening with other
options. These options include fast rail lines or light rail systems. Results from the tool should arrive within
hours or days, not weeks.
Clearing the regulatory bar is only one factor, of course. Transportation planners must also wonder, “If we
build it, will they come?” Evaluating different scenarios is key to answering that question. Using the Activity-
Based Model’s historical data, which is largely based on dated commuter surveys and travel diaries, limits
our ability to be dynamic and current in how we measure future utilization and demand. We are working to
incorporate near-time digital data and, eventually, artificial intelligence into the sketch tool to help us better
reflect behavior in response to new transportation options. We also want to consider proposals that include
on-demand transportation options and new trends in mobility, such as ridesharing, electric scooters, and
bikes, with an eye to incorporating driverless vehicles when they become a viable option.
We also use a digital twin to support real-time traffic management. Here, I envision that adding AI
enhancements to the tool will enable proactive decision-making for reducing day-to-day traffic congestion.
The current system works well for reacting to traffic backups, using a microsimulation tool that evaluates
current traffic flows every three minutes. When an incident disrupts normal traffic patterns, the tool can
generate a set of solutions, such as temporarily diverting traffic to another road, which is deployed through
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Digital twins: Bridging the physical and digital
changeable highway messages. We’re developing an AI-based strategy aimed to sense potential traffic
disruptors in real time. When you’re directing tens of thousands of rush-hour commuters, minutes matter.
By enabling fast, interactive feedback, our sketch planning digital twin will help us quickly develop innovative
solutions to complex transportation problems. At SANDAG, we see data-based tools such as FutureScape
playing key roles in helping us offer appealing—and environmentally beneficial—mass-transit options to
many of our residents accustomed to our car-oriented culture.
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Tech Trends 2020
OUR TAKE
W
HILE A COMPLETE digital twin of the human body is years or even decades away, researchers are
chipping away at understanding the biological processes that transform us from DNA into human
beings. Today’s research is enabled by advances in genetic sequencing and functional genomics,
growing volumes of long-term health data of populations, and increasing capabilities in advanced analytics.
This growing knowledge base will inform digital simulations that could eventually help medical professionals
control or prevent genetic diseases and disorders.
The project is daunting. Within the human body, DNA provides the instructions
for cell growth, which are “expressed” within individual cells to create hundreds
of different cell types, including blood cells, nerve cells, muscle cells, and
immune cells. Different types of cells combine to produce tissues, which are
combined to form organs; for example, there may be more than 10 different
types of cells in the tissues that comprise the liver.
WING WONG As a first step toward creating better virtual models of biological systems, we
PROFESSOR OF STATISTICS AND
are working to understand the “instructions” that influence a cell’s development
OF HEALTH RESEARCH AND
POLICY, STANFORD UNIVERSITY into tissues and organs and, eventually, entire systems, such as the circulatory
system. Our research builds on the development of single-cell genomics. Until
recently, scientists were able to study only groups of cells, because they lacked
the technical capability to extract enough DNA and RNA from a single cell
to support genomic analyses. We’re taking single-cell genomics findings to
the next level, to understand how single cells construct the gene regulatory
systems that underlie the different cell types in tissues and organs.
After cells and tissues, the next level is organs. In Professor Zhang’s lab in Beijing, we are studying the
heart to understand what types and subtypes of cells make up different parts of that organ. With a deeper
knowledge of how the heart is constructed, we anticipate having a better understanding of how heart
problems arise. By comparing what we’re seeing in the lab with the heart conditions we see in the broad
population, we expect to be able to better predict what conditions lead to which health outcomes—positive
or negative.
We intend to expand beyond studying specific tissues and organs to construct a digital simulation of the
human circulatory system. We’re developing a framework to take in massive amounts of data generated by
electronic health records and large-scale research mapping efforts, such as the Human Cell Atlas project.20
But data sets alone are not very useful, so we’re building a type of digital twin: a multilevel causal network,
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Digital twins: Bridging the physical and digital
a complex mathematical model to represent the functioning system and the underlying linkages between the
different layers. One day, we hope to be able to connect all the data from the DNA in the genome to health
outcomes in the general population to better understand how cell instructions, cell types, tissues, organs,
and health outcomes are all interconnected.
Within the next three years, our goal is to build out a set of quantitative, layer-by-layer models to help
interpret the genomic system. We expect the day will come when physicians will examine a newborn’s
genome sequence and understand the impact of its variants (that is, its differences from the reference
genome) along with other factors, leading to insights for resolving or preventing disease or disorders. Over
time, researchers may use these findings to create a digital twin of the entire human body to help us better
understand and simulate how disease and other changes may manifest in the body. Meanwhile, we, along
with researchers around the world, have a lot of work ahead.
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Tech Trends 2020
EXECUTIVE PERSPECTIVES
Finance Strategy
Risk Finance Strategy
Risk Finance Strategy
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Digital twins: Bridging the physical and digital
LEARN MORE
1
Which of your systems, processes,
products, or outputs would be
strong candidates for inclusion in
a digital twin pilot? EXPECTING DIGITAL TWINS
2
digital twins to increase
If you are moving to as-a-service
efficiency, reduce costs,
models or bundling services with
and build better products.
products, how can a digital twin
reduce your time to market and
reduce overall costs?
BOTTOM LINE
In the future, everyone and everything—people, services, INDUSTRY 4.0
global enterprises, and even cities—could have a digital twin. COLLECTIONS PAGE
That scale may not happen in the next 18 to 24 months, but
the digital twins trend will evolve and grow for years to come. Check out this intriguing
Pilots and prototypes can help identify potential areas where collection of articles that
companies can benefit from digital twin capabilities, but the time explores today’s digital
to embrace this next disruptive transformation phase is now. industrial revolution.
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Tech Trends 2020
Authors
AARON PARROTT is a managing director with Deloitte Consulting LLP. With more
than 20 years of experience in supply chain and network operations, he focuses on
helping clients complete large-scale transformation in the supply network, developing
analytic solutions to address difficult business issues, and implementing digital
solutions to manage complex supply networks. Parrott’s areas of expertise include
specializing in digital supply networks, IoT solutions, enterprise lean transformation,
and supply network advanced analytics.
LANE WARSHAW is a managing director with Deloitte Consulting LLP in the Strategy
& Analytics, Analytics & Cognitive (A&C) market, focusing on enabling better use
of data in the Industrial Products and Construction (IP&C) industry using next-
generation technologies. As the IP&C lead for A&C, he focuses on delivering tangible
value through supply chain and customer analytics programs enabled by data
management, data warehouse, big data, data science, visualization, and cognitive
technologies.
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Digital twins: Bridging the physical and digital
SENIOR CONTRIBUTORS
Eduardo Pereira
Master lead specialist
Deloitte & Associados, SROC S.A.
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Tech Trends 2020
Endnotes
1. Arjen Bongard and Daniela Hoffmann, “Digital twins play a role in all digitalization projects but data
consolidation slows down implementation,” Automotive IT, January 4, 2019.
2. Woodrow Bellamy III, “Boeing CEO talks ‘digital twin’ era of innovation,” Avionics International,
September 14, 2018.
3. Greg Powers, “At Halliburton, real-time data delivers,” Deloitte CIO Journal on the Wall Street Journal, September
25, 2017.
5. Felix Todd, “Digital twin examples: Simulating Formula 1, Singapore and wind farms to improve results,”
NS Business, January 22, 2019.
7. Carlos Miskinis, “The history and creation of the digital twin concept,” Challenge Advisory, March 2019.
8. Aaron Parrott and Lane Warshaw, Industry 4.0 and the digital twin: Manufacturing meets its match, Deloitte
Insights, May 12, 2017.
9. Carrie MacGillivray et al., “IDC FutureScape: Worldwide IoT 2019 predictions,” IDC, October 2018.
10. Parrott and Warshaw, Industry 4.0 and the digital twin.
11. Jonathan Lang, “AR and digital twin technologies are a powerful combination,” PTC, July 8, 2019.
12. Elaine Alhadeff, “Serious games using digital twins of offshore oil and gas environments,” Serious Game Market,
November 26, 2018.
13. Jennifer Smith, “Unilever uses virtual factories to tune up its supply chain,” Wall Street Journal, July 15, 2019.
14. National Research Foundation, “Virtual Singapore,” Singapore government, November 7, 2018; William J.
Holstein, “Virtual Singapore,” Compass, November 2015.
15. William Kucinski, “Maintaining the data-rich Pratt & Whitney GTF engine,” SAE International, October 23, 2018.
16. Michael (Mick) Snell, Service Strategy manager, Airservices Australia, interview, September 19, 2019.
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Digital twins: Bridging the physical and digital
17. Jerome Boulet (digital strategy director at Bridgestone EMEA), and Hans Dorfi, PhD (director of digital
engineering at Bridgestone Americas), phone interview, October 3, 2019.
18. Previously known as TomTom Telematics. Steven Schoefs, “Bye bye TomTom Telematics, welcome WebFleet
Solutions,” GlobalFleet, October 1, 2019.
19. Christoph Pistek (head of Technology Sciences, Pharmaceutical Sciences R&D, Takeda), interview,
November 7, 2019.
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Tech Trends 2020
Executive editors
Bill Briggs
Global chief technology officer
Deloitte Consulting LLP
wbriggs@deloitte.com
Bill Briggs’ 20-plus years with Deloitte have been spent delivering complex transformation programs
for clients in a variety of industries, including financial services, health care, consumer products,
telecommunications, energy, and the public sector. He is a strategist with deep implementation experience,
helping clients anticipate the impact that new and emerging technologies may have on their businesses in
the future—and getting there from the realities of today.
In his role as CTO, Briggs is responsible for research, eminence, and incubation of emerging technologies
affecting clients’ businesses and shaping the future of Deloitte Consulting LLP’s technology-related services
and offerings. He also serves as executive sponsor of Deloitte’s CIO Program, offering CIOs and other
IT executives insights and experiences to navigate the complex challenges they face in business and
technology.
Scott Buchholz
Emerging Technology research director and
Government & Public Services chief technology officer
Deloitte Consulting LLP
sbuchholz@deloitte.com
With more than 25 years of experience in technology innovation and implementation, Scott Buchholz
focuses on helping clients transform the way they deliver their missions and businesses through
technology. He supports organizations across industries by providing advice and insights on how to evolve
their technology and their organizations to improve performance, effectiveness, and efficiency.
In his role as CTO for Deloitte Consulting LLP’s Government and Public Services practice, Buchholz
works with clients to implement innovation across a diverse set of areas, including legacy modernization,
eGovernment and eCommerce solutions, and solution architecture.
As the emerging technologies research director and the sponsor of Tech Trends, he helps identify, research,
and champion the technology trends that are expected to have significant impact on the market and
clients’ businesses in the future.
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Authors and acknowledgments
STRATEGY
Benjamin Finzi
US Chief Executive Program leader | Deloitte Consulting LLP
Benjamin Finzi is a managing director with Deloitte Consulting LLP and coleads Deloitte’s Chief Executive
Program. As a founder of New York’s Deloitte Greenhouse® Experience, he has designed and facilitated
hundreds of immersive “lab” experiences for CEOs and their leadership teams, combining principles of
business strategy with behavioral science and design thinking to address clients’ challenges. Finzi has been
focused for more than 20 years on researching and understanding how companies succeed in disruptive
markets.
FINANCE
Ajit Kambil
CFO Program global research director | Deloitte LLP
Ajit Kambil is the global research director of Deloitte LLP’s Chief Financial Officer Program. He oversees
research in areas such as leadership, capital markets, and risk. Kambil created CFO Insights, a biweekly
publication serving more than 38,000 subscribers, and developed Deloitte’s Executive Transition Lab, which
helps CXOs make an efficient and effective transition into their new role. He is widely published in leading
business and technology journals.
Moe Qualander
Principal | Deloitte & Touche LLP
Moe Qualander is a principal with Deloitte & Touche LLP’s Risk & Financial Advisory practice. He has more
than 20 years of experience, specializing in assessing internal controls in financial business operations and
IT. Qualander leads Deloitte’s Chief Financial Officer Program’s Center of Excellence, focusing on creating
and enhancing relationships with clients’ CFOs. As dean of Deloitte’s Next Generation CFO Academy, he
assists future finance executives with enhancing their leadership, influence, and competency skills.
RISK
Deborah Golden
US Cyber Risk Services leader | Deloitte & Touche LLP
Deborah Golden is a principal with Deloitte & Touche LLP and Deloitte’s US Cyber Risk Services leader. She
brings more than 25 years of information technology experience in industries that include government and
public services (GPS), life sciences and health care, and financial services to the role, and previously served
as Deloitte’s GPS cyber leader, as well as GPS Advisory market offering leader. Golden also serves on
Virginia Tech’s Business Information Technology and Masters in Information Technology advisory boards.
125
Tech Trends 2020
Chapter authors
126
Authors and acknowledgments
ARCHITECTURE AWAKENS
Saul Caganoff Ken Corless Stefan Kircher
Platform Engineering chief Cloud chief technology officer Innovations & Platforms
technology officer Deloitte Consulting LLP chief technology officer
Deloitte Consulting Pty Ltd kcorless@deloitte.com Deloitte Consulting LLP
scaganoff@deloitte.com.au skircher@deloitte.com
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Tech Trends 2020
Contributors
Mukul Ahuja, Zillah Austin, Randall Ball, Sonali Ballal, Tushar Barman, Neal Batra, Jonathan Bauer, Mike
Brinker, Randy Bush, Rachel Charlton, Sandy Cockrell, Allan Cook, Megan Cormier, Amit Desai, Anant
Dinamani, Sean Donnelly, Matt Dortch, Deborshi Dutt, Karen Edelman, Michael Fancher, Frank Farrall,
Jourdan Fenster, Bryan Funkhouser, Andy Garber, Haritha Ghatam, Cedric Goddevrind, Jim Guszcza,
Maleeha Hamidi, Steve Hardy, Blythe Hurley, Lisa Iliff, Siva Kantamneni, Mary-Kate Lamis, Blair Kin,
Kathy Klock, Yadhu Krishnan, Michael Licata, Mark Lillie, Veronica Lim, Mark Lipton, Kathy Lu, Adel
Mamhikoff, Sean McClowry, JB McGinnis, Meghan McNally, Kellie Nuttall, Melissa Oberholster, Arun
Perinkolam, Ajit Prabhu, Aparna Prusty, Mohan Rao, Hannah Rapp, Scott Rosenberger, Mac Segura-Cook,
Preeti Shivpuri, Lisa Smith, Gordon Smith, Tim Smith, David Solis, Alok Soni, Patrick Tabor, Sonya Vasilieff,
Aman Vij, Jerry Wen, Mark White, Drew Wilkins, Abhilash Yarala, Andreas Zachariou, and Jim Zhu.
Research team
LEADS
Cristin Doyle, Chris Hitchcock, Betsy Lukins, Dhruv Patel, Andrea Reiner, and Katrina Rudisel.
TEAM MEMBERS
Stephen Berg, Erica Cappon, Enoch Chang, Tony Chen, Ankush Dongre, Ben Drescher, Ahmed
Elkheshin, Harsha Emani, Jordan Fox, Riya Gandhi, Dave Geyer, Maddie Gleason, April Goya,
Adhor Gupta, Alex Jaime Rodriguez, Morgan Jameson, Solomon Kassa, Pedro Khoury-Diaz, Emeric
Kossou, Dhir Kothari, Shuchun Liu, James McGrath, Hannan Mohammad, Spandana Narasimha
Reddy, Gabby Sanders, Joey Scammerhorn, Kaivalya Shah, Deana Strain, Samuel Tart, Elizabeth
Thompson, Samantha Topper, Kiran Vasudevan, Greg Waldrip, and Katrina Zdanowicz.
128
Authors and acknowledgments
Special thanks
Mariahna Moore for gracefully accomplishing the impossible year after year, making it look easy, and
ensuring we always follow the rules. Your standards for excellence continue to help Tech Trends live up
to its potential. And your ability to stay cool, keep a firm hand on the tiller, and always have a plan for
navigating the upcoming challenges is unmatched.
Doug McWhirter for consistently developing deft, incisive prose out of copious streams of
consciousness, innumerable interviews, reams of research, and stampedes of SMEs. Your wit, wisdom,
and patience help make Tech Trends 2020 the research opus that it is.
Dana Kublin for your talent of conjuring insightful visuals, intuitive infographics, and fascinating
figures out of thin air and unclear descriptions. Your ability to talk us out of our crazy ideas and then
show us an improved version of what we told you makes all the trends better.
Stefanie Heng for your “gentle persistence” at managing the nonstop, day-to-day activities and always
bringing a smile to everything you do. Your grace under pressure and your unflinching commitment to
the project has enabled us to “get to done.”
Caroline Brown, Tristen Click, and Linda Holland for your depth of craft, inspired creativity, and
immense patience. Whether dealing with infographics, chapters, or interviews, your collective talents,
attention to detail, and willingness to go the extra mile made Tech Trends better.
Kaitlin Crenshaw, Natalie Martella, and Camilo Schrader for a fabulous freshman year. Your
support as part of the Tech Trends family has been invaluable as you helped keep us on track for
interview prep, secondary research, content reviews, designs, graphics, and more.
Mitch Derman, Tracey Parry, and Tiffany Stronsky for continuing to advance our marketing,
communications, and PR game. Your willingness to question, push, and share your ideas have helped
take our program up to eleven. Your efforts to get the right buzz in the right places at the right times
is amazing.
Laura Elias, Martina Jeune, and Faith Shea for an unbelievable impact on your first Tech Trends
report. Thank you for bringing new ideas to the table and helping us push the boundaries of what we
can accomplish.
Amy Bergstrom, Matthew Budman, Sarah Jersild, Anoop K R, Emily Moreano, Joanie Pearson, and
the entire Deloitte Insights team. Your amazing partnership on Tech Trends helps us reach new heights
every year.
129
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