Probability: Experience
Probability: Experience
21) PROBABILITY
                 experience,
                         people         often make
                                             statements like:
nscod on past
   This boy is likely to top the school in the ICSE examination this year.
       Mostprobably it will rain today.
       There is a good chance of India winning the cricket match against Bangladesh.
All these words -likely, probably, chance involve an element of uncertainty. Probability measures
nuimerically the possibility of an event happening. A numerical value is given to an event to show how
       Tossing of a coin, rolling a    dice   or   drawing a card from a pack of 52 playing cards are all random
       experiments.
       Sample space: The set of all possible outcomes of a random experiment is known as the sample
        space.
        An Event is a subset of the sample space. It is a well-defined collection of some specific outcomes
        of an experiment. For example, in the experiment of tossing 3 coins simultaneously, the event of
        getting exactly   2 heads is   {HHT, HTH, THH}.
        An Elementary event is an event with only one favourable outcome. For example,
        when 5 identical cards are marked with numbers 1 to 5 picking a card with number 3 is an
        elementary event.
        A Compound event is an event which has more than one favourable outcome. For example,
        in the above example picking an odd numbered card has favourable outcomes {1, 3, 5}.
                                                          then E is the event non-occurring.
      Complementary   events: If E is an event happening,
 laking the above example of 5 cards, picking an even numbered card E = (2, 4 , E    = {1, 3,                        5), t h e n
 Occurrence  of an event
 An ev c t occurs when the         outcome of an experiment satisties the condition mentioned in the event.
 For example, wh                             tossed if   an event   E is named    as   getting   two   tails and if the pair of
                   when two coins      are
 coins shows
        w S two tails, we say that event E               has occurred.
     Favourable outcomes
     The outcomes which ensure the occurrence of an event are called favourable outcomes. For ex
     the favourable outcomes for an event E of getting a sum of 5 when two dice are rolled are ja                                              example,
     (4, 1), (2, 3), (3, 2)}.                                                                                                                        11,4
     Here (1, 4) means showing up 1 on the first dice and 4 on the second dice.
     (i) P(S) =1
            The probability of the sample space S considered as an event                                   NOTE
            has to be 1. It is called a sure event. For example,                                            It probability of an event happening
                                                                                                            1s P,then the probability of the event
            when       a   dice is rolled, the              probability      of   getting   a
                                                                                                positive    not happening is 1 -P.
            number less than 7 is 1.
    (i) For any sequence of mutually exclusive events E, Ez, Es                                              their sum of probability is 1. r
Empirical/Experimental Probability
Here probability of an event E is based on what actually happens in the experiment.
D         No. of trials in which the event occurs
                                 Total no. of trials
                ICSE Mathematics 10
(350
                    c o i n s are
                 22 coins
                                       led 100 times and the results
                                    rolle
       whern                                                                                  are as   follows:
e.g,
                                     0              1
N o . o fh e a d s
                                                             2                      Total
No. o f t r i a l s
                                    14              56            30                    100
                                                                                   14
       robability of getting one head = 6
Here, pr                               100                                         25                                                   Fig. 21.1
NOTE
                                                                                              2. A pack of playing cards has 52 cards.
                                                         Total no. of
                Random Experiment                                                                                      52 Cards
                                                          outcomes
(i1) note at least 2 m e a n s or more favourable outcomes (io) at most one head?
  Solution:
  Totalnumber of outcomes 23 8 which are {(HHH), (HHT), (HTH), (THH), (TITH), (THT), (HTT), (TTT)}.
    () Favourable outcomes for 1 head {(TTH), (THT), (HTT)        =
un) Favourable outcomes for at least 2 heads = {(HHT), (HTH), (THH), (HHH
                                                                                    2 heads           3 heads
                                 of getting at least 2 heads
                                                                               =                 or                    =
                Probability                                                                                       8        2
       Favourable outcomes for                           at most 1 head
                                                                                        =
                                                                                            {(TTT), (HTT), (THT),          (TTH)
                Probability of getting at most 1 head = 0 heads or 1 head =8                                               2
       Example 2: If two dice are thrown simultaneously, what is the probability of getting on the uppermost
       faces of the dice?
            )       a doublet (same number on both)                                            (11) a sum of 7                 (ii) a product of 12
                                                                                                (v) 4 or5                      (vi) More than 10.
               Gio) both are odd numbers.
                                                                                                                                                Probability     351
      Solution:
      Total no. of outcomes = 62 = 36
                  P(product 12) ==
                                36
           (iv) Favourable outcomes for both are odd numbers = {(1, 1), (1, 3), (1, 5), (3, 1), (3, 3), (3, 5), (5. 11
                  Probability = 36
       (oi) More than 10 = 11 or 12
                Probability =
  Example 3: Some identical cards are numbered from 2 to 25 and well shuffled. When a card is drawn
  randomly, what is the probability that the card has
           () a prime number            (i) a multiple of 2 and 3                                                     (iii) not a multiple of 7.
 Solution: From 1 to 25, there are 25 cards but 1 is not there.
  Total no. of cards =24. or no. of cards = (25-2) +1
      () A prime number = {2, 3,5, 7, 11, 13, 17, 19, 23)
                  P(prime)=
      (i) A multiple of 2 and 3             =
                                                    a
                                                        multiple of 6 {6,            12, 18, 24)
            P(multiple of 2and 3)            =
(in) A multiple of 7 = {7, 14, 21), i.e., 3 cards but not a multiple of 7 = 24 - 3 21 cards.
. P(not a multiple of 7) =
                                                    12    =40.
352         ICSE Mathematics 10
                        bers
        E v e nn u m b e r s           {2, 4, 6, 8, 10}            x       2 red       suits          10
              P(red e v e n ) =                        1
                                                                                                  =
                                                                                                           favourable cards
                                         40            4
        A club odd number = {3, 5, 7, 9
 i)                                                                               i.e.,   4   favourable cards
                                             4
         P(club          odd) =
                                         40            10
                               are no
         Alack, there                            Jacks     as all face            cards           are   removed.
                        P(Jack)=00
                              40
 Gir)    A   prime number =                  {2, 3 , 5 , 7}    x       4       suits
                                                                                                  i.e., 16 favourable cards
                                             16          2
                    P(prime) =
                                             40
 vample 5: If All even numbered cards are removed from a pack of 52 playing cards. What 1s the
Exa
probability that          a    card      picked up is
    (i)       a   face card
                                                   (ii) a multiple of 3 of clubs
      (ii) a red multiple of 5                     io) a prime numbered card.
Solution: Even number cards ={2, 4, 6, 8, 10) x 4 suits i.e., 20 cards are removed.
 N o . of cards left = 52                         20 = 32.
                                                                                          16
  (1) A red multiple of 5 - {5 of Hearts, 5 of diamonds) = 2 cards
                                                                                32            16
   (10) A prime numbered card                                = {3, 5, 7}x 4 suits = 12 cards
                    2
                               x   =    2 x 5          10
          No. of
                 green         balls     =
                                                 10.
                                                                                                                                                 Probability   353
                                                                             made with 3, 5, 7 and 9,
                                                                                                      what is the                probability that the
Example 7: If two-digit numbers                                    are
                                                                                                                                                              r
                                                                                                                                                                   mber is
  ()greaterthan 55                                                                 prime number.
                                                                                         (ii)   a
 (ii) Consecutive days = {(Mon, Tue), (Tue, Wed), (Wed, Thurs), (Thurs, Fri), (Tue, Mon), (Wed, Tue)
      (Thurs, Wed), (Fri, Thurs)}
                                                              8
                 P(consecutive days)                          25
                                      the    probability            that in          January                    may have 5      Mondays      if it is   a
Example 9: Find                                                                      a
                                                                                         year
   (i) leap year                                                         (ii) non-leap year.
Solution:
  (1) If 1st Jan             is   a   Monday,           then       Mondays               are    {1st, 8th, 15th, 22nd, 29th
            If 2nd Jan is a Monday, then (2nd, 9th, 16th, 23nd, 30th} are Mondays.
            If 3rd Jan is a Monday, then (3rd, 10th, 17th, 24th, 31s) are Mondays.
            But if 4th Jan is a Monday we can get only 4 Mondays in January.
                                       P(in      a
                                                     leap year)          =
Example 10: A carton has 500 vests of which 480 are good, 15 have minor defects and 5 have ma
                                                                                                                                                                      with
defects. There are 2 traders A and B. A accepts only the good vests whereas B rejects the vests w
major defects. What is the probability that a vest is acceptable to (i) A and (ii) B?
Solution:
                                                 No. of good vests                          480 24
      For A           Probability
                                                                                                     25
                                             =
(1)              >
                                                     Total no. of vests                     500
                                                      Total   no.    -
              ICSE Mathematics 10
(354)
                   A      s contains 6 green, 7 red and3 white balls. A ball is chosen wvithout looking into
                       bag contains
                         probability
                                                    that the         ball is
               ind the                                             22) not white                                  (Gi) white or green
           red
                        green)
                                        =
                                                No. ofwhite balls+green balls6+3
      Pwhite o r                                             Total no. of balls                       16    16
P
                                                                                                            probability   that   a   card picked up
                                   are          12 cards numbered 1 to 12. What is the
le             12: There
Exam
     domly has
           a    p r i m en u m b e r                                                  2)     a   number between 3 and 11
                                                                                      Go) a cube number.
               asquarenumber
Salution:
                                            -5
     9 Aprime          number =23,5, 7, 11)
                               P(prime)=
          Anumberbetween                        3 and 11       =
                                                                    4 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10) =7
               Pbetween 3           and          11)    =
                                                              12
          Asquare number {1, 4 9} =3        =
P(square no.) =
     )Acube number                  =
                                            [1, 8) =2
                              P(cubeno.)26
                                                                                                                             of length
                                  20 cm is                                        drawn somewhere o n a rectangular paper
mple 13: A circle with diameter                                                      o n this paper
                                                                                                    and assuming that the cube falls on
                                     is thrown
and width 30 cm. If a small cube will fall
Paper, what is the probability that it                                                (ii)       outside the circle.
      )     inside the circle
 Solution:                                                                                                         10x10 22x1001
                                                                                 Area of circde             r
     Probability of ffalling inside the cirde                               =
                                                                                             2-11_31
           tObability of falling outside                           the ircle    =1-                        42
                                                                                           white and others black.        Probability of getting a
 Exampl           There             are          60 balls in        a   box. Some   are
                                                                                                                              there?
 white ball                   of                            black ball. How many
                                                                                 of each coloured balls                 are
1 getting a
 Solution:
          there be x white balls.
     (6)-2) black balls.
                                                                                                                                     Probability    355
                                                                                                                                       black ball
Probability of white ball
                                                     =          x
                                                                     Probability                  of geting                    a
                                                          2
                                                                                                                                                         5 x = 180
           3 (60-a)                                                  2x            3(60      -x)        =
                                                                                                                180    -
                                                                                                                               3x
       60          2              60
X = 36 white
                                                    36    =
                                                               24
                                                                                         EXERCISE 21
                                                                                                                           a
   1. If      a    dice is        rolled,    what is the              probability of getting
                                                                                                                                             ii) number 7
        (i)  prime number          (i) multiple of 3
                                                         of getting
                                 what is the probability
   2.   If two coins are tossed,
                                                                                                                                             (11)       at least 1 head
                                                               (11) no head
        (i)         2 heads                                                                                                                                      Find the        probability that the drawn
                                                                                             of well             shuffled               playing cards.
                      at random from                                           a   pack
   3. A card is drawn
      card is                                                                                                                                                               (iii)   neither     a    club     nor a   king
                                                                                                                      (ii)         a   multiple of 3
                    neither a red card                   nor a       black         king
            (1)
                                                           which                       x are white.
                                           18 balls out of                                                                                                                                ball?
   4. A           bag contains                                                                                                                            that it will be    a white
                                                                                                 what is the                   probability
                                  ball is drawn
                                                without                        looking,                                                                                                                        (),findx.
        i)          If      one
                                                                                                                                                               a white      ball is thrice that in
                                                                                   the   bag,       the         probability of drawing
                    If 6               white balls are               put in                                                                                                              A card is        now     drawn
        (i)                  more
                                                                                           numbers                                     are   multiples of 3       are removed.
                                                                         all   cards whose
   5. From              a   pack of playing cards,
                                               that the card drawn is
                       What is the probability                                                                                                                                                                    2011
            at random.
                                                                                                                numbered                 red card.
                         face card
                                                                                (11)    an       even
                                                                                                                      cuDe
        (i)         a                                                                       dimensions. If a small
                                                                  paper with 30 cm x 20 cm
                                       drawn on a rectangular                                       that it will tall
                     diameter 20 cm is
   6. A circle with                                     falls on the paper what
                                                                                 is the probability
                                                that it
                       the paper and assuming                                                             [Take T 3.14]
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  =
      is dropped on
                                                            circle?
                     circle?              (i) outside the
      (i) inside the                                             have 5 Tuesdays in a
                             that the month of February may
   7. Find the probability
                                                              (it) non-leap year
        i)         leap year
                                                    that there           are    53     Mondays in                 a
   8. Find the               probability
                                                              (i) non-leap year                                                                                                                                         1s
        (i) leap year                                                                                                                                       that the nuoe
                                             are made with                     3, 7, 9,      a   digit can             be repeated, what is the probability
   9.   If 2 digit numbers
        ()greaterthan 70                                      (17)   a    prime number                                                   i)         a    multiple of 3
                                                                                                                                                                       faces        on   the coins
                                             tossed       together,            what is the              probability of getting different
  10. When 2 coins                     are
             ICSE Mathematics 10
(356
                             are           rolled,     what is the probability that
                      2 dice
          the
                   s u m
                           off tthe
                                    numbers is
                                                                  atleast 10                       )the product of numbers is 8
     9                              even
                                             numbers
     (        both a r e
                          the p r o b a b i l i
                                                       that   a
                                                                   leap year has 53 sundays?
         h a tis
0A game of chance has a spinning arrow pivoted at the centre of a dial as shown in
      the figure. When turned the arrow points to any of the twelve numbers. What is the
         probability that the arrow points at
        )         an      odd number
       )          a       prime number
      )           a       number           more    than 5
         () a perfect square
21. A dice is thrown 500 times and                                     frequency of the outcomes are noted as given below.
                  Outcomee                        1 23                                56
                  Frequency                       75     85100 86                       90          64
         Find the              probability of getting
         )a number less than 3                                           (11)   a    prime number
         A bag contains 4 green, 12 red andx yellow balls. Express in terms of x the probability of getting a yellow
            No. of heads                          0            1
                                                 28            52           20
             Frequency
        What is the probability of
                                                                                               i1)    at most 1 head
        i)         one head
                                                                                      black. If the    probability    of    drawing   a   white ball is   twice
  32. A    bag has 24 balls. Some are white and remaining                                 balls.
                                                           white
        that of drawing a black ball, find the number of
  33.   If two dice are rolled, What is the probability that
        () the              sum    of the numbers     on      the dice is   a    prime number?
                                   of the numbers             the dice is 8?
        (i) the             sum                       on
                                                         is         find    x.
        (i)        Given that          the probability         13
                                                                                 1     coins and twenty 50          paise   coins in his coin box? If he
  36. A    boy had thirty 2 rupee coins, twenty-five rupee that it is
                                      what is the probability
        picks upa coin from the box,
              2 coin                      (ii) either 2 or a R1 coin                                                (17) not a l coin
        1)         a
                                                MISCELLANEOUS EXERCISE
                                                                           7, what is the probability that          number is
                        digit numbers are made with 3, 5             or                                         a
   1. If two
                                   number                                             (ii) a multiple of 5
            (i)        a   prime
            (ii)       less than 40.
   2.   In an aquarium, there are 36 red and some black fish. When a fish is removed, the probability or Bet
                                 11
        black fish is                   Find the number of black fish.
                                 20
                                                                                                                                                 t
   3. ldentical cards                 are   marked 1 to 100. When      a    card is drawn at random, what is the             probability that
            i)         a multiple of 11                                                    (i) a perfect square
            (iti) a number in which one digit is twice the other                          (io) a multiple of 2 and 3
            (o)        a prime number containing the digit 9
                                                                                                                                                          er,
   4. On a square paper of side 20 cm, a circle of diameter 10 cm is drawn. Assuming that it falls on u
        what is the probability that a tiny cube dropped on the paper falls Take T-
            )          within the circle                                              (ii) outside the circle?
     (0         no heads
                                                                                             (i) at least 2 tails
                                                        is
                                                     cards      is well
                                                                is well shuffled and a card is randomly picked up, what is the probability that
                        deck
                             k of playing
    Whena
6
    it is
                                 card      or a   queen                                      (i) a multiple of 3
                        red
                    a
      (                                                                                      (io) a nine and an ace
                                 face c a r d
                        red
                    a
      (it)                                                                              letter is chosen randomly. What is the probability that it is                     a
7. From the letters
                                           of the word MATHEMATICS,                 a
     points at
                                                                                                (i) an odd number
           )            a   perfect cube
           (ii) a factor of 8                                                                (iv) the smallest prime number
                                                                                         were shuffled and put in a box. If a card                     is   picked up   froom
11. Odd numbered cards                               1, 3, 5, 7, 9, 11,        27, 29
      this box, what is the                         probability       that the number     on   the card is        a
the lot?
                                                                                                                                                        Probability       359
             6. Sixteen cards are labelled as a, b, c, d,., m, n, o, p. They are put in a box and shuffled. A boy is as
                   a   card from the box. What is the                probability      that the card drawn is:
                                                                                                                                                                    sked to draw
               ()        A vowel?                     (i)    A consonant?                     (it) None of the letters of the word 'median',
                                                                                                                                                                    andom 2017
             7. Cards bearing numbers 2,4, 6,8, 10, 12, 14, 16, 18 and 20 are kept in a bag8 A card is drawn at r
               the bag. Find the probability of getting a card which 1s;
                                                                                                                                                                           from
                       () a prime number.                                                    (i1)    a    number divisible            by   4.
                   (in) a number that is a multiple of 6.                                    (io)    an      odd number.
         8. There are 25 discs numbered 1 to 25. They are put in a closed box and shaken thoroughly. A disc        2018)
                                                                                                        lisc isis cdrawn
               at random from the box. Find the probability that the number on the disC 1;
                 ) an odd number                                  (ii) divisible by 2 and 3 both.
            (ii) a number less than 16.
         9. Each of the letters of the world 'AUTHORIZES' is written on identical circular discs and put in a bag, Th
                                                                                                                                                                          2019
              are well shuffled. If a disc is drawn at random from the bag, what is the probability that the letter is:                                                        ey
                    (i) A vowel
                   (i) One of the first 9 letters of the English alphabet which appears in the given word
               (in) One of the last 9 letters of the English alphabet which appears in the given word?
                                                                                                                                                                          2020
LET'S RECALL
                                                                                                                                                                    2   =4
        7.   If a coin is tossed          n   times   or n   coins   are    tossed   together       =2" outcomes
        8. If 2 dice             rolled
                                                                                                                           are
                                                                                                                                 possible.
                           are
                                              simultaneously      or one      dice two      times,       the total   no.   of outcomes            =6   =
                                                                                                                                                           36
        9. (1) At least 3> 3 or more
                                                                                              (i) At most 2 0                or 1 or 2
       10.    ()  multiples of 2and 3 = multiples of 6 >6, 12 18, etc.
             (ti) multiples of 2 or 3 multiples of 2 as well as
       11.   Favourable outcomes should
                                                                multiples                                    of 32, 3, 4, 6,          8, 9, 10, 12, etc.
                                                            be listed in each       case.
       DO YOU KNOW?
       BLAISE PASCAL (1623-1662)
   Blaise Pascal, a French
                            mathematician, was a child prodigy. He
   first digital calculator and                                                                           invented the
   for binomial coefficients in hydraulic press. He gave a tabular
   number is the sum of the
                                the
                                    expansion of (a + b". n Pascal's                                       presentation
                                               numbers above         it.                                 triangle, each
   Probability had its origin in the games of
   interested in gambling                      chance. In 1654,
   from that collaboration problems,   Blaise Pascal            prompted by a friend
                             was born                corresponded with Fermat and
   helped in creating two major new the Theory of Probability. Blaise
   treatise on the                                          areas of
                                                                       research.                                 Pascal
                           subject of Projective                                      He wrote
   strongly influencing Modern                          Geometry and later on                            a
                                                                                                             significant
                                                  Economics and Social      Probability Theory
                                                                       Science.
(360         ICSE Mathematics 10                                                                                                                Blaise Pascal