The

Authoritarian
Playbook
How reporters can contextualize and cover
authoritarian threats as distinct from politics-as-usual

JUNE 2022
Authored by Jennifer Dresden, Aaron Baird, and Ben Raderstorf, with
contributions from Sohini Desai, Emerson Goldstein, Nanya Springer,
Justin Florence, and Ian Bassin.

Protect Democracy is deeply grateful for the expertise generously provided

by scholars and journalists whose work and reviews helped to shape this
report. Notwithstanding their generous input, Protect Democracy takes sole
responsibility for the content of this report.

THIS PUBLICATION IS AVAILABLE AT

protectdemocracy.org/project/playbook-media-primer

SUGGESTED CITATION
Protect Democracy, The Authoritarian Playbook (June 2022).

PLEASE DIRECT INQUIRIES TO

press@protectdemocracy.org
 OVERVIEW
Newsrooms are reckoning with how journalists can adequately cover
an increasingly anti-democratic political movement in the United States.
In covering these events, they face a constant challenge of covering all
angles of a story without drawing equivalencies between candidates or
politicians who operate within the normal bounds of democratic politics
and those who may seek to undermine elections and the rule of law.
The media has an essential role to play that is unbiased, but not neutral
in applying a consistent standard about threats to democracy.

In light of the authoritarian threat, the ongoing process of media evolution

and adaptation necessitates that the media may draw on a different
toolkit today than it did in the eras of Walter Lippmann’s “Public Opinion,”
the Pentagon Papers, or Watergate.

This briefing is designed to help the fourth estate advance this “unbiased but
not neutral” role in a healthy democracy by providing two contextualizing
resources: a common playbook of tactics used by would-be autocrats in the
U.S. and around the globe, and a framework for distinguishing between
these authoritarian tactics and normal political jockeying.

CONTENTS INCLUDE

Identifying the How to Calibrate Quick Reference

Authoritarian Coverage for Reporting on
Playbook the Authoritarian
Playbook

THE AUTHORITARIAN PLAYBOOK — PROTECT DEMOCRACY 3

THE AUTHORITARIAN
PLAYBOOK
INTRODUCTION 5
How to differentiate authoritarian threats

IDENTIFYING THE AUTHORITARIAN PLAYBOOK 8

Politicizing independent institutions
Spreading disinformation
Aggrandizing executive power, weakening checks and balances
Quashing criticism or dissent
Marginalizing vulnerable communities
Corrupting elections
Stoking violence

HOW TO CALIBRATE COVERAGE 19

How significantly does this action deviate from modern precedent?
To what degree is the authoritarian playbook action happening?
Does this action present a systemic risk to democracy?
Keeping the full playing field in view

EXPERTS 24

QUICK REFERENCE FOR REPORTING

ON THE AUTHORITARIAN PLAYBOOK 25

ADDITIONAL RESOURCES ON
THE AUTHORITARIAN PLAYBOOK 26
 INTRODUCTION
Before the 1990s, authoritarian leaders bent on This presents a unique challenge for journalists,
upending democracy typically came to power who are committed to providing the public much
forcefully and swiftly, often by means of a military needed information and context about important
coup d’etat. The moment democracy ceased news. Contemporary democratic breakdowns are
to exist could be time- far more difficult to
stamped and reported identify because—in
on with a block headline. 64% of Americans agree that snapshots—they can
democracy is in crisis and at risk of failing.¹ mimic the typical acts
Yet for at least the of political jockeying
last thirty years, the Only 7% of young Americans view the to gain advantage that
threats to democracy United States as a “healthy” democracy.² are routine even in
have evolved. Today, healthy democracies.
democracy more often The vast majority of Americans (81%) But especially as
dies gradually, as the say that, in general, the news these acts accumulate
institutional, legal, and media is “critical” (42%) or and intensify, hard-
political constraints on “very important” (39%) to democracy.³ nosed politics can
authoritarian leaders cross a line into
are chipped away, one authoritarian threats.
by one. This has happened—or is happening— Unfortunately, there is no simple bright-line answer
in, among others, Russia, Venezuela, Hungary, or mechanical test to distinguish between the two.
the Philippines, Poland, Nicaragua, India, Turkey—
and the United States. At the same time, because authoritarianism—all
around the world—tends to follow clear and consistent
By using “salami tactics,” slicing away at democracy patterns, we can use these patterns to separate
a sliver at a time, modern authoritarians still cement the signal from the noise. This basic framework—the
themselves in power, but they do so incrementally authoritarian playbook—can help isolate clear and
and gradually. Sometimes their actions are immediate dangers to democracy from partisan
deliberate and calculated, but sometimes they are outrage, political hyperbole, and sensational spin.
opportunistic, myopic, or even bumbling. There is
1
Mallory Newall, Chris Jackson, and James Diamond, Seven in ten
no longer a singular bright line that countries cross Americans say the country is in crisis, at risk of failing, NPR/Ipsos (Jan.
3, 2022).
between democracy and authoritarianism. But the
2
Harvard Kennedy School Institute of Politics, Harvard Youth Poll (Dec.
outcome is still the same. 1, 2021).
3
Gallup/Knight Foundation, American Views 2020: Trust Media and
Democracy (Aug. 4, 2020).

THE AUTHORITARIAN PLAYBOOK — PROTECT DEMOCRACY 5

 The press has a foundational role to play in how to democracy to the global whole, reporting can
democratic systems hold leaders accountable, help inform voters about more than just what is
and doing so requires clarity about the gravity happening—it can tell them what the news means.
and implications of their actions. Understanding
and recognizing the authoritarian playbook as a Covering the authoritarian danger requires that the
whole can help journalists not only decide what to press do two things: understand the interlocking
cover as threats to democracy, but can also help components of the playbook itself, and distinguish
enrich and contextualize coverage about how the between normal political jockeying and genuine
individual components of the playbook fit together. authoritarian moves. This briefing is designed to
Americans suspect that their democracy is at risk. help journalists do just that. For ease of reference,
But by identifying and connecting individual threats summaries of our suggestions are on page 25.

THE AUTHORITARIAN PLAYBOOK — PROTECT DEMOCRACY 6

 How to differentiate authoritarian threats

EVENT

And does the

DOES THIS FIT INTO THE AUTHORITARIAN PLAYBOOK?
actor have a
pattern of following
the other parts of
the playbook?
TARGETING
CORRUPTING STOKING
VULNERABLE
ELECTIONS VIOLENCE
COMMUNITIES

POLITICIZING AGGRANDIZING
SPREADING QUASHING
INDEPENDENT EXECUTIVE
DISINFORMATION DISSENT
INSTITUTIONS POWER

Is this
something new?
HOW SIGNIFICANTLY DOES THIS EVENT
How significant
DEVIATE FROM MODERN PRECEDENT?
is the deviation?

WITH WHAT FREQUENCY AND DEGREE IS THIS HAPPENING?

DOES THIS PRESENT A SYSTEMIC RISK?

Does this Is the actor Is the system

concentrate and acting alone? responding to
consolidate power? How are their allies constrain the
reacting? actor?

THE AUTHORITARIAN PLAYBOOK — PROTECT DEMOCRACY 7

 IDENTIFYING THE
AUTHORITARIAN PLAYBOOK
Various scholars have written extensively about how would-be authoritarians
pursue power and how democratic systems backslide towards more authoritarian
forms of government. Experts such as Sheri Berman, Larry Diamond, Timothy
Snyder, Kim Lane Scheppele, Steven Levitsky, and Daniel Ziblatt have published
some of the foremost analyses of these issues. The Authoritarian Playbook we
present here draws on all of these insights and offers a holistic framework for
understanding the interrelated tactics involved in the process.

According to these leading scholars of democracy, aspiring modern authoritarians

tend to employ the same seven basic tactics in the pursuit of power.

1 They attempt to politicize independent institutions.

They spread disinformation.

2

They aggrandize executive power at the expense of checks and balances.

3

They quash criticism and dissent.

4

They specifically target vulnerable or marginalized communities.

5

They work to corrupt elections.

6

7 They stoke violence.

These strategies are interdependent and mutually reinforcing. Any events, stories,
and actions that fit at least one of the seven plays is likely best understood in the
context of the authoritarian playbook as a whole.

This section introduces and describes the authoritarian playbook with the
intention of helping journalists identify specific norm-breaking conduct as part
of the playbook. We’ve also provided suggestions on how to cover each tactic,
found on page 25. Throughout, the paper includes guidance from experts on
democratic decline around the world, and perspective on what to look out for
here in the United States.

THE AUTHORITARIAN PLAYBOOK — PROTECT DEMOCRACY 8

 1 Politicizing independent institutions

All democracies have certain functions that operate with political allies. While the office put out rosier
with some independence from partisan political inflation reports from then on, the clearly false
actors. Central banking, law enforcement and statistics had a real impact on actual inflation, with
courts, official statistics, financial accounting and uncertainty helping drive prices up even further.
regulation, election administration, intelligence In 2021, inflation in Argentina topped 50 percent.
and national security—all only work properly when
appropriately protected from politics. IN THE UNITED STATES
Some of the most concerning attempts to politicize
independent institutions have involved attacks on
law enforcement—especially the U.S. Department
Because of their potential to cause of Justice—and election administration. As of
permanent institutional, legal, and December, 2021, attempts to politicize previously
economic damage, even early attacks independent election oversight and administration

on independent institutions should roles were underway in at least 7 states. Often,

be treated as a substantial threat. overt politicization efforts are cloaked in language

delegitimizing non-partisan and professional civil
service, a cornerstone of modern democracy, such
as by labeling it “the deep state.”
These institutions are ripe targets for capture by
autocratic factions, in whose hands they become
weapons towards adversaries, shields against SUGGESTIONS FOR JOURNALISTS
POLITICIZING INDEPENDENT INSTITUTIONS
accountability, or, worst of all, levers of large-scale
manipulation and corruption. Because of their » Explain and contextualize the reasons why institutions
potential to cause permanent institutional, were designed as independent, the rules and norms that
have historically protected that independence, and the
legal, and economic damage, even early attacks
potential future consequences of politicization.
on independent institutions should be treated as
» Rely on experts familiar with each particular institution’s
a substantial threat. history, including former appointed officials. For example,
past Department of Justice employees and professional

CASE STUDY: ARGENTINA election officials are generally effective sources on the
importance of independence for those institutions.
In late-2000s Argentina, inflation was a growing
political challenge for the authoritarian-leaning
president, Nestor Kirchner. Convinced that rising
inflation statistics were becoming a self-fulfilling
prophecy, Kirchner quietly fired the leadership of
the official statistics agency and replaced them

THE AUTHORITARIAN PLAYBOOK — PROTECT DEMOCRACY 9

 2 Spreading disinformation

All politicians engage in spin, and many outright lie IN THE UNITED STATES
(at least occasionally). But authoritarians propagate Disinformation is a unique challenge for the United
and amplify falsehoods with abandon and ruthless States today, as authoritarian actors have taken
efficiency. Often, this disinformation is spread through advantage of our strong First Amendment
coordinated networks, channels, tradition and fragmented online
and ecosystems, including information ecosystem. As a
politically aligned or state-owned
The goal is not result, over a third of Americans
media. These lies have two always to sell a lie, believe the Big Lie—a coordinated
purposes: first, they are political but instead to disinformation campaign falsely
weapons aimed at crippling claiming that the 2020 election
opponents and shoring up key
undermine the was stolen. These lies, and the
constituencies through invented notion that anything false sense of grievance they are
false grievances. And second, in particular is true. designed to inspire, are almost
they are smokescreens for power certain to drive authoritarian
grabs and abuses, insulating attitudes for years to come. And
authoritarians against accountability. Often this cover in the short-term, the Big Lie is being used as cover
is indirect, through mass doubt and confusion. The goal to rewrite election laws and lay the groundwork for
is not always to sell a lie, but instead to undermine potential future power grabs.
the notion that anything in particular is true.

CASE STUDY: RUSSIA SUGGESTIONS FOR JOURNALISTS

SPREADING DISINFORMATION
The United States is no stranger to Russian
disinformation campaigns. But Russia’s campaigns » Beware of the illusory truth effect, wherein disinformation
directed abroad—designed to stoke divisions over can be inadvertently spread by stories that aim to debunk
it. Impressions of truth come from hearing repeated
everything from elections to vaccinations—pale
claims, regardless of context.
in comparison to the disinformation ecosystem
» Strictly avoid headlines that repeat false claims, even if
Vladimir Putin oversees at home. In addition to contextualized, as disinformation spreads best through
repression, Russian state media overwhelms dissent momentary impressions.

with a cacophony of false claims. According to a » Cover disinformation as a story, not just a statement.
RAND report, Putin’s “firehose of falsehood” model, Investigate and illuminate the systems, motives, funding,
mechanisms, and actors spreading lies.
which emphasizes loud, multi-channel, inconsistent,
and at times surreal disinformation, is surprisingly
well-rooted in experimental psychology. This helps
explain how Russian leaders are able to act with
impunity, both at home and abroad.

THE AUTHORITARIAN PLAYBOOK — PROTECT DEMOCRACY 10

 3
Aggrandizing executive power, weakening
checks and balances
Authoritarian projects cannot succeed without all meaningful checks and balances, including by
the cooperation or acquiescence of legislatures, packing and de-clawing the Constitutional Court
courts, and other institutions designed to provide and other courts, gutting the ombudsman system,
checks and balances. In some cases, authoritarians and gaining control over the central bank. Orbán
explicitly rewrite the rules to strengthen executive also rewrote the electoral rules to reduce the size
power and weaken legislatures, while in others of Parliament and distort electoral outcomes in
they simply stack these competing institutions favor of his Fidesz party. (Perhaps ironically, these
with lackeys and compliant allies. Authoritarians reforms brought Hungary closer to a U.S.-style
also often justify the expansion of executive power electoral system, which systematically advantages
with cults of personality and aggrandizement of the authoritarianism.) Taken together, these successful
trappings of office, while denigrating checks and attacks on checks and balances make it less likely
balances as corrupt obstacles to the popular will. that Orbán will again lose power—ever.

CASE STUDY: HUNGARY

When Viktor Orbán was elected Prime Minister for the
Authoritarian projects cannot
second time in 2010—after eight years out of power—
his first and most aggressive move was to rewrite the
succeed without the cooperation or
Hungarian Constitution. This new document, rushed acquiescence of legislatures, courts,
through in a matter of months with almost no public and other institutions designed to
visibility, consultation, or ratification, removed almost provide checks and balances.

THE AUTHORITARIAN PLAYBOOK — PROTECT DEMOCRACY 11

 IN THE UNITED STATES
SUGGESTIONS FOR JOURNALISTS
A particular puzzle in the United States is how to AGGRANDIZING EXECUTIVE POWER, WEAKENING CHECKS
AND BALANCES
distinguish genuinely authoritarian aggrandizement
of executive power from the decades-long and
» Provide context on the role of the executive branch in the
bipartisan trends towards expanding presidential governing process and how cutting out other branches
authority and valorizing the presidency. Some and actors—the legislature, judiciary, state governments—
can allow for unilateral action.
historical cases have been fairly clear. When
» Rigorously investigate violations of process-oriented laws
Franklin Delano Roosevelt attempted to circumvent
designed to limit executive power, such as the Hatch Act,
the Supreme Court’s opposition to his New Deal Federal Vacancies Reform Act, and the Congressional
legislation by expanding the Court from 9 members Budget Act.

to 15, the effort was rejected even by members of » Avoid political intrigue stories that can, by overstating
his own party. When the administration of Ronald process dysfunction and conflicts, inadvertently help
warm voters to executive power grabs.
Reagan subverted Congressional restrictions on
» Understand the legal mechanisms, purpose, and reform
support to Nicaraguan rebels in the Iran-Contra
agendas behind the legal checks and balances between
Affair, the legislative branch was quick to defend Congress and the White House.
its prerogatives. But while such examples reflect » Avoid uncritically covering political events and visuals that
how the too-easily abused powers of the president seem deliberately designed to aggrandize the presidency—
regardless of who is president.
have been exploited over decades by both
parties, the Trump administration took this to new
heights. Trump especially embraced emergency
powers, pardons, and acting appointments while
ignoring congressional subpoenas and spending
appropriations, rejecting legislative oversight, and
claiming immunity from judicial accountability.

THE AUTHORITARIAN PLAYBOOK — PROTECT DEMOCRACY 12

 4 Quashing criticism or dissent

Strong democracies have strong oppositions delegitimize critical coverage. And while newsrooms
and an independent press who alert the public are a favorite target, whistleblowers, civil society,
when those in power are abusing their positions. activists, and religious leaders also regularly face
Autocratic movements and attacks, jail time, and worse.
regimes tend to weaken not
only freedom of speech and the Autocratic movements CASE STUDY: THE PHILIPPINES
press, but the influence of any work to weaken the Historically, autocrats aiming to
public voices (often media or civil silence dissent have repressed
society) that could serve as vocal
influence of any voices critics with the threat of violence.
counterpoints to the autocratic that could serve as That’s still true in the Philippines,
faction. In Hungary, for example, counterpoints to the where at least eleven journalists
powerful allies of Viktor Orbán
autocratic faction. have been murdered since
used their economic muscle to president Duterte came to power
buy up and consolidate the vast in 2016. But in addition to overt
majority of independent media, essentially making force, the Duterte administration (like Russia,
criticism of the ruling party, Fidesz, financially Turkey, and others) has relied on the threat of civil
unviable. Multiple autocrats around the world and even criminal libel lawsuits to coerce the self-
have adopted the cry “fake news” as a way to censorship of journalists and dissidents. Even when

THE AUTHORITARIAN PLAYBOOK — PROTECT DEMOCRACY 13

 libel suits fail on their merits, the prospective costs More recently, several states have introduced
of lengthy litigation can stifle underfunded outlets or passed new laws, like Florida’s “anti-riot” bill,
from publishing critical work. Libel suits have the that increase criminal penalties for protestors in
added benefit of appearing to adhere to the rule the vicinity of demonstrations that turn violent.
of law, even as their true intent is to constrain the Restricting civil society’s ability to mobilize dissent
public’s access to information and ability to monitor is a glaring indicator of democratic backsliding.
those in power. There have also been—although to a far lesser
degree—proposed laws that attempt to criminalize
IN THE UNITED STATES disinformation, but would do so in a way that
The U.S. has a long tradition of independent violates fundamental rights.
media and vibrant dissent. And while the Trump
administration’s antagonistic relationship with
reporters was well documented, the former SUGGESTIONS FOR JOURNALISTS
QUASHING CRITICISM OR DISSENT
president went beyond the typical back-and-forth
with a critical press corps. He used, or threatened » Pay attention to proposed policy solutions that adopt
to use, the regulatory and enforcement powers of the overbroad standards and fail to consider whether targeted
activities are protected fundamental rights.
state to punish the speech of journalists in at least
four ways: initiating a government review to raise
» Be especially wary of efforts to silence dissent within federal,
state, and local public institutions, including universities
postal rates to punish the owner of the Washington and bureaucracies. A politicized bureaucracy or state
Post; directing DOJ enforcement actions against institution can become a political apparatus rather than

media companies including CNN’s parent company; a body dedicated to public service.

interfering with White House press access; and

threatening to revoke broadcast licenses.

And criticism and dissent can come from many

sectors, not just civil society or the press. Government
whistleblowers who report wrongdoing enjoy legal
protection in America, but like authoritarian leaders
the world over, Trump demonstrated little tolerance
for internal dissent. In an attempt to obstruct
accountability for his abuse of power, Trump and
his allies used intimidation and retaliatory attacks
against Lt. Col. Alexander Vindman to try to prevent
him (and scare off others) from testifying before
Congress during impeachment proceedings, and
then to punish him for doing so.

THE AUTHORITARIAN PLAYBOOK — PROTECT DEMOCRACY 14

 5 Marginalizing vulnerable communities

Democracy in diverse societies depends on IN THE UNITED STATES

protecting the rights of minorities. This includes Of course, drawing a hard line between differences
political minorities who have lost at the ballot in ideological or cultural beliefs and the targeted
box and groups who identify as different from marginalization of specific groups can be difficult.
traditionally dominant majoritarian groups That said, autocrats tend to explicitly reject any
along the lines of race, ethnicity, religion, sexual benefits of pluralism or diverse societies. They
orientation, or gender identity. Research has shown employ political strategies that target minorities in
that robust social ties reduce the effectiveness a way that energizes and reinforces solidarity among
of repression. Therefore, modern-day autocrats their supporters. In the United States, where Black
use demographic identity as a way to sow division. Americans have been marginalized for centuries, the
This tactic also allows autocrats to claim a broad language and rhetoric around voter fraud often nods
mandate after coming to power with only plurality to this history of racialized politics. But it’s not just
support. Authoritarian parties in Hungary and about wielding culturally divisive “wedge” issues as
Poland—while ascending to power with only political strategy. Authoritarians use state power to
plurality support—have demonized immigrants and target and infringe on minority rights: from Attorney
use claims of representing “the real Poles” or “the General Jeff Sessions’ limiting of consent decrees,
real Hungarians” as ways of establishing a more to the rolling back of Affirmatively Furthering Fair
legitimate popular mandate. As globalization and Housing (AFFH), and the exempting of certain lenders
looser borders force many nations to grapple with from the Home Mortgage Disclosure Act. More
questions about national identity, immigrants and recently, in the last year in Texas, more than 40 bills
refugees have been the targets of far-right populist were introduced that would curb transgender rights.
parties across many backsliding democracies—
including the United States.
SUGGESTIONS FOR JOURNALISTS
MARGINALIZING VULNERABLE COMMUNITIES
CASE STUDY: INDIA
The Hindu-nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) » Avoid narratives that present conflicts between powerful
and Prime Minister Narendra Modi have used identity- majority groups and more marginalized groups as equal
or balanced.
based divisions to build and consolidate power over
the course of several decades. From capitalizing on » Contextualize stories by explaining the centrality of
minority rights in sustaining self-government, and in
anti-Muslim pogroms to mobilize electoral support 20 reducing the likelihood of violence, conflict, or repression.
years ago, to the more recent Citizenship Amendment
» Refrain from unnecessarily amplifying political rhetoric
Act that discriminates against Muslims seeking targeted at vulnerable communities.
formal citizenship, the BJP has weaponized religious » Provide context on how authoritarian actors seek to exclude
identity in favor of an exclusionary identity politics and dehumanize populations to consolidate power.

that risks undermining democracy altogether.

THE AUTHORITARIAN PLAYBOOK — PROTECT DEMOCRACY 15

 6 Corrupting elections

The biggest innovation of 21st-century authoritarians IN THE UNITED STATES

has been to maintain the facade of democratic Even in the face of perhaps the “most secure election
elections while at the same time tilting the rules against in U.S. history,” the integrity and structural features
their opponents. They do this by suppressing votes of elections in the U.S. are being tested. We now know
and biasing, distorting, falsifying, or even overturning an effort to block the certification of the 2020 election
the results—either through capturing the referees or results involved coordination among state and local
by manipulating the electoral rules in their favor. officials and former president Trump and his advisors.
Since 2020, at least 19 states have passed election
CASE STUDY: VENEZUELA law changes that both reduce ballot access and
In 2017 and 2018, left-wing autocratic President provide more opportunities for partisan interference
Nicolás Maduro relied on an undemocratically- in the vote counting and certification process.
convened National Constituent Assembly composed
of loyalists to manipulate the rules and timing in a
SUGGESTIONS FOR JOURNALISTS
series of elections to keep him in power. The most CORRUPTING ELECTIONS
popular opposition parties and leaders were barred
from running against him or the pro-government » Explain existing election processes and safeguards.
Often, those who attempt to corrupt elections justify
ruling party. And a series of hastily-held snap
their actions by claiming that elections are insecure or
elections were scheduled to prevent the opposition vulnerable to fraud.
from aligning on a unity candidate. Amidst » Center election officials and non-partisan experts.
accusations of ballot-tampering and boycotts by Stories that primarily quote partisan actors—including
election lawyers—can contribute to false impressions
voters (fewer than half of registered voters turned
that all aspects of elections are already politicized.
up at the polls—a number the opposition claims was
» Illustrate the diverse ways that elections can be corrupted,
inflated), Maduro claimed a second term.
ranging from voter suppression (restricting ballot access
before an election) and biased electoral rules (such as
gerrymandering) to election subversion (attempting to
overturn or manipulate an election after the fact). Each
21st-century authoritarians maintain strategy undermines free elections in different ways—with
compounding implications for the health of democracy.
the facade of democratic elections
while at the same time tilting the rules
against their opponents.

THE AUTHORITARIAN PLAYBOOK — PROTECT DEMOCRACY 16

 7 Stoking violence

Finally, while healthy democratic actors always is a relatively recent phenomenon, one in which
eschew civil violence, autocrats either deliberately violence has played a central role. The 2006
look the other way or even intentionally inflame election of President Daniel Ortega was followed by
politically useful violence. Such outbreaks can offer extensive corruption, consolidation of power by the
political cover for restrictions on civil liberties or the ruling party, and infringements on individual rights
expansion of coercive security measures. They can and freedoms. It was also marked by violence. While
also suppress voter turnout among opposition and police repression and politicization grew throughout
inspire supporters to turn out in competitive areas. the period of Ortega’s presidency, the response
to 2018 protests stands out as a stark example of
how violence becomes an authoritarian’s strategy
of choice in the face of threats to their power.
As feelings of insecurity rise, social Months of protests were met with violence, not
divisions become more salient only from police, but from pro-government “shock
and politicized and political leaders’ force” gangs who had also previously been used to

incentives shift further towards quell protests. In all, over 300 people died in the

hardball politics over negotiation violence over several months, and the ordeal ended
with protest activity being effectively banned and
and compromise.
dissidents going into hiding.

IN THE UNITED STATES

Stoking violence advances authoritarian efforts The history of the United States includes plenty
in other areas of the playbook, such as quashing of violent episodes, particularly around elections
dissent, but it also undermines the norms and and campaigns, as exemplified by years of violent
trust among political elites, as well as the broader intimidation of Black voters in the South. Recent
population, that underpin democratic stability. As decades have seen far fewer episodes of political
feelings of insecurity rise, social divisions become violence, but recently this trend has reversed. Between
more salient and politicized and political leaders’ 2020 and 2021, there were over 1,200 events
incentives shift further towards hardball politics categorized as political violence in the United States,
over negotiation and compromise. resulting in more than 150 deaths. The number of hate
crimes reported to the FBI rose 41% between 2015
CASE STUDY: NICARAGUA and 2020. International observers have expressed
Though Nicaragua today is categorized as no longer deep concern about the tone of American political
being a democracy by key observers such as campaigns and the way that it raises the risk of
Freedom House, its decline into authoritarianism violence related to election outcomes. These trends

THE AUTHORITARIAN PLAYBOOK — PROTECT DEMOCRACY 17

 The alignment of some political leaders SUGGESTIONS FOR JOURNALISTS
with violent actors and the refusal of STOKING VIOLENCE

others to condemn violence contribute » Remain attentive to how political leaders’ statements are
to a perception of impunity. received by potentially violent actors. Politicians may offer
statements with multiple messages, but the way those
messages are understood matters.

» Avoid sensationalizing violent events and inflating risk

perceptions.
culminated in the January 6th insurrection, in which
a violent mob stormed the U.S. Capitol, attempting » Explain the impact of violent events on democratic norms
and processes in clear, concrete terms.
to disrupt the lawful transfer of executive power
» Examine policy responses to violence for their impact
following the 2020 election. 140 police officers were
on other aspects of democracy, such as civil rights or the
injured during the insurrection, and five deaths independence of government institutions.
were attributed to the violence on that day. Yet the
alignment of some political leaders with violent
actors and the refusal of others to condemn violence
contribute to a perception of impunity. This kind
of violence both results from and contributes to
declines in democratic norms and values.

THE AUTHORITARIAN PLAYBOOK — PROTECT DEMOCRACY 18

 HOW TO CALIBRATE COVERAGE
While understanding the authoritarian playbook something more alarming? This can be considered
can help paint a broader, more nuanced picture of in two parts: Is this action something new? And how
authoritarian threats and actions, journalists also significant of a deviation from recent practice is it?
have to weigh what to prioritize in a wave of threats.
As Steve Bannon told the writer Michael Lewis in Many actions and behaviors that we might
2018, “The real opposition is the media. And the way perceive to be contrary to democratic principles
to deal with them is to flood the zone with shit.” are (unfortunately) standard practice in American
politics. Gerrymandering presents one such
To avoid being swamped by this deluge, there example. Though hardly an asset to the strength
are three balancing tests the media can apply to of American democracy, it is a longstanding aspect
differentiate performative violations—which are of the system that has been practiced by both
often designed to inflame and distract—from major parties.
real and grave democratic threats that deserve
urgent coverage: Actions that depart from precedent are far more
likely to constitute a component of democratic
1 How much does this action deviate from erosion. Donald Trump’s attempt to mount legal

recent precedent? challenges to the 2020 election results through
the courts—though unusual—was not without
2 To what degree is this happening?
precedent. His refusal to publicly concede the
3 Does this action present a systemic risk election even once those legal challenges were

to democracy? exhausted and instead push falsified slates of
electors constituted both a new and a significant

How significantly does departure from prior precedent. Both the novelty
and severity of the action suggest this was a clear
this action deviate from authoritarian threat to our democratic system.

modern precedent? Applying this standard requires judgment around

The authoritarian playbook empowers would-be two important caveats. First, the departure from
autocrats to change the way a political system precedent—even a significant departure—is not
operates. It enables them to concentrate power in itself sufficient to confirm that an action contributes
ways that are incompatible with robust, balanced to democratic erosion. Some precedent is bad
democracy. Yet the day-to-day contestation that is precedent—acting outside of it may actually be good
inherent to democracy means that political actors for democracy. Challenging the racist practices of
push boundaries all the time. What is standard the Jim Crow era ran clearly counter to precedent,
jockeying for advantage, and what represents but was unquestionably pro-democracy. So the

THE AUTHORITARIAN PLAYBOOK — PROTECT DEMOCRACY 19

 substance of the action (i.e., whether it falls clearly administrative, or political maneuver used only in
into one of the strategies encompassed by the certain circumstances in the past suddenly being
authoritarian playbook) is as important as its novelty. employed far more regularly?

Second, not all claims to precedent are equally While a healthy democracy can accommodate
robust. Some of the most dangerous authoritarian occasional deviations from norms, the frequency
moves may well have nominal, legal, or technical with which an action deviates from prior practice
precedents. But upon close examination, these and aligns with the authoritarian playbook is also vital
claims to precedent often fall dramatically short. to the analysis. A relatively isolated deviation from
They may be based on entirely different circumstances, standard norms or processes does not necessarily
or precedent may have indicate democratic
evolved over time. For erosion, while a much
example, when certain
In an authoritarian transition, more frequent deviation
Republican legislators what everyone thinks is normal can—particularly when
offered the election of 1876 is the authoritarian transition. it risks establishing a
as providing institutional Journalists have a responsibility new norm or legal
precedent for managing a to ask whether they are doing precedent to normalize
contested election in 2020, enough to record the strangeness future misbehavior.
they were not entirely
or novelty of what politicians do.”
inventing the comparison Take, for example, the
TIMOTHY SNYDER, YALE UNIVERSITY
out of whole cloth. Yet Trump administration’s
essential differences in the response to Black Lives
circumstances of the 1876 election and the 2020 Matter protests in 2020. In one instance, the
election nullified those claims to be acting based Chairman of the Joint Chiefs, General Mark Milley,
on precedent. accompanied President Trump across Lafayette
Square for a clearly political photo opportunity after

To what degree is the a BLM protest. This was a departure from the strong
precedent that the armed forces stand apart from
authoritarian playbook partisan politics in the United States and sparked

action happening? vocal concern. Yet Milley quickly acknowledged that

his presence there was inappropriate and reportedly
Novelty, however, is not the only criteria to assess. even considered resigning over the incident. The
The threshold question is whether an action action was not repeated, minimizing the threat.
under consideration falls under any of the seven
areas of the authoritarian playbook. If so, to what In contrast, the Trump administration’s contemplated
degree is this action happening, both in terms of use of federal power to respond to Black Lives Matter
intensity and frequency? Is the action an extreme protests posed a far more significant threat to
abuse of power or democratic norms? Is a legal, democracy. Heavy-handed responses to protest,

THE AUTHORITARIAN PLAYBOOK — PROTECT DEMOCRACY 20

 though contrary to democratic principles, are not
without precedent in American history. Some actions Because democracies die in more
considered by the Trump administration—including a subtle ways today, it is not
proposal to invoke the Insurrection Act—would have always easy to tell when it is
risen to the level of quashing criticism or dissent.
happening—much less explain
If implemented, such measures would have set
it to readers. Because many
precedents for forceful responses to future protests.
Even now, we see legislative efforts in several states,
contemporary assaults on
such as Florida, that would provide a statutory basis
democracy take forms that are
for more heavy-handed responses to protests. legal or constitutional, they are
easy to confuse with the bruising
Take, in contrast, the use of vacancy appointments in battles of normal day-to-day
the United States, or the chief executive’s control of politics. But they are not normal.
the bureaucracy. Even if the routine sidestepping of There are real and consequential
proper procedure did not speak for itself, the president
differences, to which we must
openly admitted a preference for acting officials for the
pay close attention.”
exact reasons the Founders imposed the requirement
STEVEN LEVITSKY, HARVARD UNIVERSITY
of Senate confirmation: “I sort of like ‘acting’[officials],”
Trump said. “It gives me more flexibility.”

THE AUTHORITARIAN PLAYBOOK — PROTECT DEMOCRACY 21

 Does this action present a systemic risk to democracy?

To the extent that the authoritarian playbook has individuals or small groups appear to be acting alone.
a central theme, it is that democratic erosion is a In practical terms, this means that authoritarian
process of power concentration and consolidation. moves that are supported by institutions or well-
While all political actors seek to accumulate power, established organizations—particularly political
authoritarians, uniquely, seek to entrench that power parties—are much larger threats than those
and protect it from external checks. Experts generally undertaken by individuals acting alone. So a key
agree that democracies don’t tend to die at the hands question is whether an individual who engages in
of individuals alone. Rather, contemporary attacks on anti-democratic action is checked by another part
democracy only succeed when they are coordinated, of the system (typically their political party),
systemic, and undertaken by broad parties or or enabled by it.
movements. An essential piece of distinguishing
genuine risks from everyday politics is to look at the Donald Trump’s sustained efforts to overturn the
question of whether the democratic system still responds results of the 2020 election provide the most dire
to constrain an individual actor who overreaches. example of this danger. While Trump’s individual
efforts to undermine the election were dangerous in
and of themselves, the large number of Republican
The key thing… is how systemic the members of Congress who voted against certifying
threat to democracy is. In other words, the election results represent an even more severe

just as personalistic authoritarian risk. This has been further reflected in the Republican
National Committee’s censuring of Representatives
regimes are more fragile than party-
Liz Cheney and Adam Kinzinger for their participation
based ones (because when the leader
in the House January 6 Select Committee.
disappears from personalistic regimes,
the regime tends to crumble), threats to These examples stand in contrast to the way that the
democracy that emanate not from the system responded to an earlier attempt at executive
machinations of a single individual, but overreach during the final period of the Richard
are rather rooted in an institutionalized Nixon presidency. When Nixon not only engaged

party are much more dangerous.” in electoral foul play, but also attempted to abuse
the powers of his office to hide that fact, the key
SHERI BERMAN, COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY
institutions constraining him did not “play along.”
Instead, the institutions intended to constrain Nixon
Actions from the authoritarian playbook that require did so. The Saturday Night Massacre, for example,
the support of a wide range of powerful actors should is remembered as an episode of presidential abuse.
be understood as more serious than those where But it should also be remembered as a moment in

THE AUTHORITARIAN PLAYBOOK — PROTECT DEMOCRACY 22

 which multiple Justice Department leaders refused perceived as crying wolf. Journalists run the risk of
to comply with the politicization of their institution. losing credibility if coverage is not judicious. Here
Republicans in Congress similarly checked Nixon’s again, we have endeavored to provide resources for
attempts to stay in office by clearly and credibly separating the real threats from the political noise.
signaling that he would be removed from office
under impeachment. Both unelected and elected Finally, and principally, context matters deeply
actors demonstrated that—despite the grave nature to all of these stories. The threat that any
of the situation—the fundamental checks and authoritarian action poses to our democracy can
balances of American democracy were functional. only be evaluated against the overall state of the
country’s political health. This requires a sense of
what prior events or actions have intentionally or
Keeping the full coincidentally laid the foundation for democratic

playing field in view backsliding. But the would-be authoritarian is

not the only actor whose behavior impacts this
The threats to American democracy are real, but they landscape. Their allies and supporters may have
are not always obvious. The authoritarian playbook taken steps that amplify the dangers of a given
outlined above can help journalists navigate three action. Their opposition may have taken steps—
crucial challenges. even in the name of protecting democracy—that
create new vulnerabilities. The public cannot
First, the salami tactics that make up the most fully appreciate the implications of any threat to
common forms of backsliding today are extremely democracy without visibility into these key pieces
effective in incrementally chipping away at the of the puzzle.
quality of our democracy. Yet they rarely provide
the type of brazen, system-wide threat that is so Understanding the authoritarian threat today
clear as to motivate a broad response in defense of requires clarity and context. The press is always
democracy. As each new transgression normalizes essential to democracy’s stability, but never
new behavior, it shifts the perceived “red lines” more so than now.
another fraction, raising the risk that the public
will miss the story until it’s too late. The playbook
offers journalists a framework for telling stories that
might otherwise fly under the radar.

At the same time, though, the affinities between

many tactics in the authoritarian playbook and
normal political jockeying in a competitive
democracy present a different risk. If every attempt
to gain political advantage is presented as an
authoritarian threat, the press will quickly be

THE AUTHORITARIAN PLAYBOOK — PROTECT DEMOCRACY 23

 EXPERTS TO TALK TO
SHERI BERMAN Columbia University

LARRY DIAMOND Stanford University

WILLIAM HOWELL University of Chicago

AZIZ HUQ University of Chicago Law School

DIDI KUO Stanford University

STEVEN LEVITSKY Harvard University

JENNIFER MCCOY Georgia State University

ANNE MENG University of Virginia

MICHAEL MILLER George Washington University

YASCHA MOUNK Johns Hopkins University

KIM LANE SCHEPPELE Princeton University

DAN SLATER University of Michigan

TIMOTHY SNYDER Yale University

SUSAN STOKES University of Chicago

DANIEL ZIBLATT Harvard University

THE AUTHORITARIAN PLAYBOOK — PROTECT DEMOCRACY 24

 QUICK REFERENCE FOR REPORTING
ON THE AUTHORITARIAN PLAYBOOK
1 Politicization of independent institutions
Explain why institutions are independent, the rules and norms that have historically protected that independence,
and the potential future consequences of politicization.

2 Spread of disinformation
Beware of the illusory truth effect, or the tendency of audiences to believe false information when exposed to it again
and again. As such, be careful that disinformation is not inadvertently spread by stories that aim to debunk it. And illuminate
the systems, motives, funding, and actors spreading lies, covering disinformation as a story, not just a statement.

3 Aggrandizement of executive power

Contextualize the executive branch’s role in the governing process and how cutting out other actors—Congress, judiciary,
state governments—can allow for unilateral action. While doing so, try to avoid political intrigue stories that, if overstating
process dysfunction and conflicts, can inadvertently help warm voters to executive power grabs.

4 Quashing of dissent
Pay attention to proposed policy solutions that adopt overbroad standards and fail to consider whether targeted activities
are protected fundamental rights. Be especially wary of efforts to silence dissent within federal, state, and local public
institutions, including universities and bureaucracies.

5 Targeting of marginalized communities

Authoritarian actors consolidate power by seeking to dehumanize and exclude certain groups, and it’s important to avoid
presenting conflicts between powerful majority groups and marginalized groups as equal or balanced. Coverage should also
help readers appreciate the centrality of minority rights in sustaining self-government, and in reducing the likelihood of violence,
conflict, or repression.

6 Corrupting of elections
Help readers understand the diverse ways that elections can be corrupted, ranging from voter suppression (restricting ballot
access before an election) and biased electoral rules (such as gerrymandering) to election subversion (attempting to overturn or
manipulate an election after the fact). What’s more, because those who attempt to corrupt elections often justify their actions by
claiming that elections are insecure or vulnerable to fraud, continue to vigorously explain existing election processes and safeguards.

7 Stoking of violence
Remain attentive to how political leaders’ statements are received by potentially violent actors. Politicians may offer statements
with multiple messages, but the way those messages are understood matters. Also, avoid sensationalizing violence and inflating
risk perceptions. And explain the impact of violent events on democratic norms and processes in clear, concrete terms.

THE AUTHORITARIAN PLAYBOOK — PROTECT DEMOCRACY 25

 ADDITIONAL RESOURCES ON
THE AUTHORITARIAN PLAYBOOK
1 Politicization of independent institutions
» International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance, Independent Regulatory and Oversight (Fourth-Branch) Institutions (2019).
» Protect Democracy, No “Absolute Right” to Control DOJ: Constitutional Limits on White House Interference with Law Enforcement Matters
(2018).
» National Conference on State Legislatures, Election Administration at State and Local Levels (2020).
» Tim Stretton, Independence of the Federal Reserve, Project on Government Oversight (Oct. 16, 2019).
» Charles Stewart III, Administering Elections in a Hyper-Partisan Era, MIT Political Science (Oct. 21, 2021).
» Arch Puddington, Breaking Down Democracy, Freedom House (2017).
» Jack Goldsmith, Independence and Accountability at the Department of Justice, Lawfare Blog (Jan. 30, 2018).
» Rachel Kleinfeld, The Politicization of Our Security Institutions, Just Security (Apr. 25, 2018).
» Ben Berwick and Ariela Rosenberg, Trump's Politicization of Law Enforcement is Authoritarian in Nature, Take Care Blog (Mar. 9, 2018).
» American Oversight, ​Politicization of the Justice Department (Jul. 31, 2021).

2 Spread of disinformation
» Law For Truth.
» Data & Society, 10 Tips for Reporting on Disinformation (2020).
» Shorenstein Center, Research Initiative: Disinformation.
» Susan Benkelman, Getting it right: Strategies for truth-telling in a time of misinformation and polarization, American Press Institute (Dec. 11,
2019).
» Whitney Phillips, The Oxygen of Amplification, Data & Society (May 22, 2018).
» Institute for the Future, Journalism and False Information (2022).
» Adrian Shahbaz and Allie Funk, Freedom on the Net 2021, Freedom House (2021).
» Anton Shirikov, Fake News for All: Misinformation and Polarization in Authoritarian Regimes (Sep. 12, 2021).
» Harvard Kennedy School Misinformation Review.
» PEN America, Disinfo Defense Toolkit (2020).
» Andrew Rockway, Lessons from 2020: How local newsrooms responded to unprecedented challenges, American Press Institute (Apr. 6,
2021).

3 Aggrandizement of executive power

» Protecting Our Democracy Act.
» Protect Democracy, Roadmap to Renewal: A Legislative Blueprint for Restoring Our Democracy.
» Project on Government Oversight, Checks and Balances.
» The Brennan Center for Justice, Executive Power.
» National Conference of State Legislatures, Separation of Powers—An Overview (May 1, 2021).
» Open The Government, Accountability 2021.
» Citizens for Ethics and Responsibility in Washington, Restoring Checks on Executive Power (Dec. 20, 2020).
» Will Freeman, Sidestepping the Constitution: Executive Aggrandizement in Latin America and East Central Europe, Constitutional Studies
(2020).
» International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance, Global State of Democracy Report 2021 (2021).
» Tarunabh Khaitan, Executive Aggrandizement in Established Democracies: A Crisis of Liberal Democratic Constitutionalism,
International Journal of Constitutional Law (Dec. 16, 2018).

THE AUTHORITARIAN PLAYBOOK — PROTECT DEMOCRACY 26

 4 Quashing of dissent
» Reporters Without Borders, United States.
» Freedom House, Media Freedom.
» PEN America, United States.
» US-Helsinki Commission, Tools of Transnational Repression: How Autocrats Punish Dissent Overseas (Sep. 12, 2019).
» Marcus Michaelsen, The Digital Transnational Repression Toolkit, and Its Silencing Effects, Freedom House (2020).
» Protect Democracy, PEN America settles landmark First Amendment lawsuit with U.S. Government (Feb. 18, 2021).
» Transnational Institute, Understanding and Challenging Authoritarianism (Nov. 30, 2017).
» Center for the Protection of Journalists, Spyware and Press Freedom.
» Knight Foundation-Ipsos, Free Expression in America post-2020 (2022).
» Floyd Abrams et al., Symposium: Is Free Speech Under Threat in the United States?, Commentary (Jul./Aug. 2017).

5 Targeting of marginalized communities

» Human Rights Watch, The Dangerous Rise of Populism: Global Attacks on Human Rights Values (2017).
» Erica Chenoweth and Maria J. Stephan, Why Civil Resistance Works, Columbia University Press (Aug. 2011).
» Erica Chenoweth and Zoe Marks, Revenge of the Patriarchs: Why Autocrats Fear Women, Foreign Affairs (Mar./Apr. 2022).

6 Corrupting of elections
» Steven Levitsky and Lucan Way, Elections Without Democracy: The Rise of Competitive Authoritarianism, Journal of Democracy (Apr. 2002).
» Protect Democracy, Advantaging Authoritarianism: The U.S. Electoral System & Antidemocratic Extremism (2022).
» States United Democracy Center, Law Forward, and Protect Democracy, A Democracy Crisis in the Making (2022).
» National Task Force on Election Crises, Covering the Election Before, During, and After Nov. 3 (2020).
» Nic Cheeseman and Brian Klaas, How to Rig an Election, Yale University Press (Oct. 22, 2019).
» Freedom House, Election Integrity.
» International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance, Elections.
» Jennifer Gandhi and Ellen Lust-Okar, Elections Under Authoritarianism, The Annual Review of Political Science (2009).

7 Stoking of violence
» Rachel Kleinfeld, The Rise of Political Violence in the United States, Journal of Democracy (Oct. 2021).
» Anjali Dayal, Alexandra Stark, and Megan A. Stewart, Warnings of ‘Civil War’ Risk Harming Efforts Against Political Violence, War on The Rocks
(Jan. 18, 2022).
» Princeton University, Bridging Divides Initiative.
» Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project (ACLED).
» New America, Preventing Political Violence in America (Jan. 6, 2022).

THE AUTHORITARIAN PLAYBOOK — PROTECT DEMOCRACY 27

 PROTECT DEMOCRACY CAN PROVIDE ADDITIONAL EXPERTISE,
INSIGHTS, RESOURCES AND DETAILED ANALYSIS FOR COVERAGE
ON POTENTIAL THREATS TO DEMOCRACY.

Contact us at press@protectdemocracy.org
and read more at protectdemocracy.org

PROTECT DEMOCRACY IS A NONPARTISAN NONPROFIT

ORGANIZATION DEDICATED TO PREVENTING AMERICAN DEMOCRACY
FROM DECLINING INTO A MORE AUTHORITARIAN FORM OF
GOVERNMENT.

THE AUTHORITARIAN PLAYBOOK — PROTECT DEMOCRACY 28