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NAVIGATING A DISRUPTIVE DECADE

Year 3–Strategic Sourcing and Inbound Logistics

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 Copyright 2021, Auburn University Center for Supply Chain Innovation
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 A Brief Note of Introduction

In 2018 when we began the Logistics 2030 project, little did we know that the following
three years would be the most transformative period for supply chains. Market volatility
caused by the pandemic, the subsequent economic downturn, and severe weather
events have converged to cause enormous stress on all areas of the supply chain.
One of our focus group participants said it best “Now everyone wants to go back to
“normal” – how things used to be. But most of us don’t realize how the normal has
changed – the future has changed.”

The year 2030 is getting closer. Over the next nine years, supply chain professionals
will continue to encounter many challenges and rapid change. It is important to assess
the strategies, requirements, and tools that will shape supply chains and drive success
over the next decade.

Our team of experts from Auburn University's Center for Supply Chain Innovation, the
Council of Supply Chain Management Professionals (CSCMP), the National Shippers
Strategic Transportation Council (NASSTRAC), and AGiLE Business Media (publisher
of DC Velocity & CSCMP’s Supply Chain Quarterly), has undertaken a multi-year study
of these future issues. We have previously explored transportation and warehousing.

This year’s selected topic is Strategic Sourcing and Inbound Logistics. We collected
expert insights on future sourcing issues via a survey, focus groups, and individual
interviews. The resulting information is contained in this report

We would like to thank all the sourcing/procurement and logistics professionals who
participated in this study and hope you will find the information contained within this
report useful to your transportation/supply chain networks.

Gail Rutkowski Mark Baxa

Executive Director President and CEO

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 TABLE OF CONTENTS

ABOUT THE STUDY ............................................................ 1

ORGANIZATIONAL PRIORITIES .......................................... 3

STRATEGIC SOURCING: CRITICAL CAPABILITIES ............... 5

Future Challenges: Business Continuity and Supply-Demand Mismatch .... 6
Strategies and Tactics: Risk Management .......................................... 9
Technology Outlook: Efficiency, Speed, and Accuracy ......................... 14
Talent Management: Art and Science of Relational Management ......... 17

INBOUND LOGISTICS: CRITICAL CAPABILITIES ................ 20

Future Challenges: Capacity, Service, and Power-play .......................... 22
Strategies and Tactics: Collaboration and Planning ............................. 25
Technology Outlook: Power of Analytics .......................................... 29
Talent Management: Multi-skill Logistics Manager ............................ 31

LOOKING TOWARDS 2030 ............................................. 34

THE L-2030 STUDY RESEARCH TEAM ............................ 36

THE L-2030 STUDY PARTNERS ....................................... 37

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 ABOUT THE STUDY
“We didn't have a great plan for handling any kind of major
risks to our supply chain. It's just never hit us this hard. Now,
everybody wants to go back to “normal” – how things used to
be. But most of us don't realize how the normal has changed,
the future has changed. “
In the wake of the global pandemic, strategic sourcing and
inbound logistics have become increasingly vital in supply chain
management. Operating complex supply chains amid multiple
interweaving disruptions is becoming ever more challenging,
requiring a holistic business understanding.
Given the current environment, it is easy to attribute almost
THE IMPERATIVE
any business challenge to the whirlwind of global shutdowns
and re-starts forced by a global pandemic. However, the Future supply chain
current situation masks many long-term trends that have been dynamics are intricate
on the radar of business executives and thought leaders for
and onerous. We need
their disruptive potential. The pandemic has turbocharged
to account for these
these trends to create a perfect storm that needs our
attention.
challenges now to be
ready. The Logistics
In the third installment of the Logistics 2030 (L-2030) annual 2030 study highlights
study, we present a long-term view of the supply side of global relevant issues and
supply chains. This report takes an in-depth look at strategic
offers insights that can
challenges in sourcing and inbound logistics.
help organizations
We highlight future initiatives through which organizations are prepare for these
building requisite capabilities to effectively respond to these future challenges.
challenges. These initiatives relate to finding reliable sources of
supply, deploying capable transportation arrangements, and
leveraging technology and talent development strategies that
will be needed to ensure business success in the coming years.
Our analysis provides a comparative view of today’s capabilities
and how these capabilities match up with the needs of the next
decade. The findings of this report are based on the expert
insights from multiple focus group sessions and survey
responses from hundreds of sourcing experts and logistics
professionals. We share these insights to broaden readers’
perspectives about future challenges and relevant strategies
that can meet these challenges.

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 Research Objectives:
Strategic Sourcing and Inbound Logistics in 2030
Our third L-2030 series report targets sourcing and inbound
logistics capabilities, essential to an organization’s ability to satisfy
customers’ needs. We investigate the essential issues that warrant
a company’s earnest consideration for future success:
Operational Tactics: What actions and strategies can help you
meet future sourcing and inbound logistics needs?
Technology and Analytics: Which technology applications will
have the most impact in sourcing and inbound logistics?

KEY NUMBERS Talent Management: What managerial skills in sourcing and

inbound logistics do you need to become the future leader?
6 focus groups In the pages ahead, we present future-focused analyses of these
key questions, along with actionable takeaways. The report also
275+ survey respondents highlights impending issues and investment decisions that
sourcing and logistics professionals must address.
50% of participants
from large companies Study Methodology
(revenue over $1 billion) The L-2030 research priorities were derived through analysis of
industry trends and discussions with supply chain executives. To
Average of 23 years’ gain diverse insights, we sought input from CSCMP and
work experience in NASSTRAC members, DC Velocity and CSCMP’s Supply Chain
supply and logistics Quarterly subscribers, our sponsor’s network and CSCI partners.
management roles The valued insights of industry practitioners were captured
through a multi-method research approach, using:
Expert Panels: Six, hour-long, focus group sessions to uncover
the most pressing sourcing and inbound logistics issues.
Online Survey: A 50-question survey captured respondents’
insights on current and future sourcing and logistics issues.
This research approach engaged supply chain professionals from
a broad array of organizations and industries. Thus, we are able
to present an accurate narrative on tactics, technology, and
talent issues. The report includes direct quotes from experts who
participated in the focus groups and a compilation of responses
from the online survey.

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 ORGANZATIONAL PRIORITIES
“The focus around our procurement organization is no longer
to drive value through lowering costs. The value is to keep the
business running through uninterrupted supply.”
Finding ways to fix problems and getting out of difficult
situations have always been the forte of supply chain
management professionals. Their response to the current
challenges on the supply side of their businesses is no different.
Our report not only highlights the challenges, but also provides
an in-depth understanding of different strategies that are being
devised to respond to these challenges. We start the report by
looking at the long-term organizational priorities that guide
these strategies.
In strategic sourcing, organizations are focused on a number of IT’S A NEW WORLD
key priorities. On top of the list for 2030 is finding ways to curtail
rising procurement costs. The cost pressures are rooted in “Things I've never seen
supply side issues, as well as the changing global regulatory in my career are now
landscape that is adding to the uncertainty. Another the "normal". Times of
organizational priority identified in our report is developing predictable lead times
future leaders that understand both the science and the art of and reliable supply
supply risk management. sources are gone. We
On the inbound logistics side, the top of the priority list is need a new game plan!”
building end-to-end visibility to detect and respond to logistics
challenges. Other items on the priority list include: shipment
tracking, e-Processes, and service performance. It is interesting
to note that 2030 organizational priorities are significantly
different from today in terms of their strategic focus (see info-
graphic on the next page). These differences highlight the critical
need for organizations to pivot and adapt their capabilities to
the changing business landscape.
We expand below on these organizational priorities by
presenting our analysis in two main sections of this report: (i)
strategic sourcing, and (ii) inbound logistics. Each section
provides a detailed discussion of issues and challenges, and
strategies related to business processes, technology, and talent
management issues. We wrap up the report with specific action
items that will guide you in developing a plan to deliver on the
aforementioned priorities.

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 STRATEGIC SOURCING – CRITICAL CAPABILITIES
“Nothing costs the business more than the inability to serve its
customers. You can't save your way to profitability. If you don't
have supply, you can’t make things and you don’t deliver. That
means you don’t have a business.”
The global pandemic and the resulting myriad disruptions has
laid bare long-term vulnerabilities of supply management in
modern times. This situation underscores the critical role played
by sourcing and procurement in sustaining vital supplies for
businesses, public institutions, and consumers.
Historically, sourcing and procurement has been seen as an
organizational function tasked with managing purchasing costs.
The future outlook of sourcing and purchasing looks quite
different. Eighty-one percent of our survey respondents identify
developing new sources of supply and ensuring business CHALLENGES
continuity as the primary sourcing and procurement capabilities
that will be most useful in the future.
ABOUND
This outlook accounts for the near consensus among our study “A six week supply lead
participants (93%) who describe the key attribute of their time is now 24 weeks. And
suppliers as being strategic partners. For that reason, 86% of the that’s just one of the
respondents state that they are focused on developing incentive many challenges in
schemes and shared processes to promote collaboration with sourcing.”
their strategic supply partners.
The other key capability highlighted in our report is sourcing
flexibility. Many supply chain experts in our focus groups share
concerns about looming trade wars, perpetual supply shortages
and global disruptions. These concerns have led to calls for
developing flexibility through alternate sourcing strategies, such
as using multiple sources of supply for key product categories
(93%), investing in sophisticated analytics to reduce supply-
demand mismatches (92%), and renewing their focus on
domestic sourcing and near-shoring (81%).
To align themselves to these sourcing and procurement trends,
organizations need a better understanding of the challenges
headed their way. In this section, we present a detailed analysis
of relevant sourcing and procurement issues and identify
strategies to help prepare for future challenges.

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 Future Challenges: Business continuity, supply-
demand mismatch, and supplier performance

Threats to Business Continuity

One of the top sourcing challenges identified in our report is
the threat to business continuity. This concern, shared by 81%
of our survey respondents, directs attention to the built-in
vulnerabilities of the prevailing sourcing strategies.
“We are starting to realize that where we had three different
suppliers for a category, they are all somewhere tied in to the
same source. So, as we expand our collective supply chains to
serve increasing demand, we will approach the limits of
BUILT-IN supply. We need to start thinking about better alternatives.”
VULNERABILITIES Today’s hyper global market competition has forced many
“Supply chains have organizations to find ways to shorten the supply cycle. A go-to
strategy in this regard has been to deploy supplier
always been exposed to
qualification protocols built around single sourcing. This
“what ifs”. What if our
strategy has been successful in reducing product variation,
supplier shuts down for speeding up awarding contracts and lower administrative
two weeks? What if costs. However, its downside, i.e., the elevated supply risk, has
there's a global many sourcing experts concerned.
pandemic? Now we're
Multiple discussions among our focus group respondents
seeing these “what ifs”
point to the critical need for strategic supply planning that
happen and we’re dead
generates solutions to these concerns. “We have to get
in the water.” smarter about understanding trade flows around the world.
Not just think about single manufacturing source, but develop
strategy that looks across all sourcing options.” This outlook is
also shared by a majority (67%) of our survey respondents
who see poor sourcing flexibility as the big supply challenge in
the years leading up to 2030.

Deteriorating Supply-Demand Mismatch

At a strategic level, the concern about business continuity
connects to another macro trend related to a growing supply-
demand mismatch. With rising demand and constrained
supply, the first causality is usually the cost of goods (94% of
survey respondents agree) that eventually leads to higher

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 consumer prices. Neither outcome alleviates concerns arising
from a limited supply capacity (70% of survey respondents share
this perspective). “We have this challenge of demand and supply
mismatch that will continue to create a perpetual bullwhip
effect.” Interestingly, it is this trend that is making organizations
look at options to explore and develop additional sources of
supply, including near-shoring.
Taking account of the shifting landscape in terms of tariffs,
supply shortages and other risks, more than 80% of our survey
respondents believe that there will be an increase in domestic
sourcing in the years leading up to 2030.
“Maybe the model ahead is one where there's an affordable
level of contingency planning around local sources that results in
security of supply and an affirmation of supply.” This outlook is
SURVIVAL MODE supported by a large majority (72%) of survey respondents who
see a major increase in North American sourcing activity over
“If I could get one thing, the next decade.
it would be a good risk
management process Supplier Performance Management
where we identify
contingencies for supply. The other key sourcing challenge highlighted in our study is
That will help me get out supplier performance management. The key connection of this
of all these situations challenge with the strategic issues mentioned above is that
ineffective supplier performance exacerbates risks in quality, cost
requiring perpetual crisis
and timeliness of supply. For this reason, 74% of survey
management.”
respondents stated that supplier performance management will
be a major challenge facing organizations in the future.
The elements of supplier management that will be become
critical in coming years include: suppliers’ production capacity,
real time visibility of supply and logistics processes, and
ethical/sustainability practices. To effectively manage the
supplier base, organizations are developing programs to
incentivize supplier communication and incorporate better
process visibility. Sixty-one percent and 72% of survey
respondents, respectively, indicate corporate investments in
these areas.
The other key area of supplier performance management to
focus is the expectation of ethical practices around labor,
intellectual property, and sustainability initiatives.

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 “As supply professionals, we must talk about the 3E’s:
economics, environment, and ethics in supply chains. We must
assess our suppliers on these 3Es.”
There is growing investor and consumer pressure to enforce
trade regulations and promote ethical sourcing. Buyers must
ensure that global supply partners are not abusing local labor in
the quest for lower production costs or deploying business
practices that harm the environment. “You don’t want to wake
up and find out there's a huge uproar that your supplier’s
packaging comes from an endangered rain forest that you didn’t
know about.” The challenge for sourcing organizations is
determining how to accomplish these goals when supply is
constrained, and lead times are too long for supply chains to
function properly. FINDING THE
There is an equal level of social pressure around reducing your MIDDLE GROUND
carbon footprint and conserving the environment. These
contemporary sourcing challenges are expected to be at the “We are trying to strike
forefront in coming years. Sourcing professionals, in partnership that balance between
with their suppliers, must adopt sustainable sourcing satisfying the market
innovations. demand and finding
ways to conserve the
Strategies and Tactics: Risk Management through environment. But we
Supplier Partnerships must balance the other
side of these things like
“Our focus is no longer on driving value through lower costs. higher cost of goods.”
The value is to keep operations running. 100% of my team's
time is spent making sure that we can get the materials to
keep our billions of dollars of assets running.”
This year’s L-2030 report has identified business continuity,
supply-demand mismatch, and supplier performance as the
biggest challenges in the coming years. Based on these
challenges, a large majority (65%) of our study participants
believe that organizations need to make long-term adjustments
to their procurement and sourcing strategies.
To help with such long-term planning, we asked sourcing
professionals who participated in our focus groups and survey
about the best way forward. The following discussion presents
these strategies and tactics.

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 Seat at the Table
As organizations become increasingly concerned about business
continuity challenges, the attention of corporate leadership has
honed in on the critical role of strategic sourcing and efficient
procurement processes. Many organizations are treating the
sourcing and procurement function as an organizational priority,
as indicated by 93% of our survey respondents.
To fully leverage their collective supply chain capabilities,
organizations are integrating sourcing and procurement
processes into a broader corporate strategy, increasing its use
from 73% to 92% among our survey respondents’ organizations.
The new organizational priority is reflected in the higher level of
engagement by sourcing professionals in new product
NEW VALUE development and portfolio decisions. “What we see is having a
sourcing expert at the table in these ideation sessions. To say …
“People have started
look, we can find this ingredient pretty sustainably pretty easily
seeing us as the one who
in all parts of the world. Let's create a new product where we
understands a particular
can use this material, instead of having to reinvent the wheel.
commodity vertical, one Let's start with something we know we can source effectively.”
who fosters strategic
relationships with Another change in the business outlook is how organizations are
suppliers. It’s great when beginning to view sourcing and procurement function in a
different way. “Now when we talk about strategic sourcing,
they come to you for
we're really talking about a new definition.”
help with developing
new products.” The new outlook goes beyond viewing procurement
professionals as a group who beats down suppliers to the lowest
price. It's more about people who foster collaboration and build
relationships with supply partners that will yield solutions to
shared problems. “Let's not just always be pushing for cheaper
and cheaper. Let’s add value using our relationship with
suppliers who know more and can offer alternatives we can
use.”

Risk Management in Uncertain Times

The sourcing experts in our focus group and survey respondents
are clear that the coming times call for a shift away from the
low-cost, just-in-time practices of the last decade. Risk
management in uncertain times requires corporate investments

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 in better supply visibility (97% survey respondents agree) and
automated information flows through e-Processes (84%
agree). Both enable faster response when supply is affected
due to shortages and disruptions.
“Smart sourcing is now becoming about the use of analytical
tools that help people understand their supply chains from an
overall sourcing model. And then use risk analysis tools to
make decisions around trigger points where alternative
sourcing strategies need to be deployed.”

Our survey also identifies other risk management strategies

that will be applicable in coming years. These include:
dynamic adjustment of inventory levels (87%), diversified
ACTION PLAN supply sources (84%), and more domestic sourcing (63%). It is
interesting to note the identification of domestic sourcing as
“Job number one now is a one of the risk management strategies in our survey results.
top-down risk analysis The use of this approach makes sense for mission-critical
supplies where a local, more reliable source can be leveraged
and capability assessment
to offset the impact of supply disruptions.
for each one of our vital
components that go into “With so many things that can go wrong, we need a different
manufacturing the final risk management plan about having a local alternative to
product, and outsource temporarily. There's so much uncertainty out there
understanding our with supply and logistics, we need a backup plan, a plan B and
alternative supply options plan C and sometimes even Plan D at this point.”
for each one of those
components.” Finding the Right Supply Partner
Organizations are increasingly relying on their suppliers to be
a source of innovation to address future challenges. “Our
sourcing relationships with our suppliers are absolutely
changing and they're becoming deeper and intertwined.
That's critical for the future.”
This high level of reliance requires organizations to form
buyer-supplier teams that work on developing new products,
build supply plans from prototype to production, and devise
innovative approaches for process improvements. These
opportunities underscore the importance of fostering close
supply partnerships as a critical sourcing strategy for the
future.

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 A key element of this collaborative strategy is identifying best
supply partners for your organization. We asked our sourcing
and procurement experts to identify the necessary attributes of
a supply partner. Their responses included: flexible
manufacturing capability, location and proximity to ease
logistics flow, and service quality. These attributes reinforce the
outlook discussed above regarding business continuity and
supplier performance. Notably low in the ranking of partner
attributes was purchase cost.
“A good supplier relationship management program helps you
segment your supply base and identify those that really are
transactional. You don't need to invest nearly as many resources
or time in developing close relationships with them.”

Joint Ownership of Success WE’RE IN IT

To ensure a successful buyer-supplier partnership, each side TOGETHER
must make a commitment to shared success. This implies that
when requiring suppliers to meet certain performance goals, “We support our
buyers must ensure they are facilitating their suppliers’ suppliers and not punish
workflows and providing necessary support. “We will work with them when they have a
our suppliers to solve their supply and quality problems. We do
late delivery or poor
this because our suppliers also bring a lot to the table for us!”
quality, but try to find
Building good supplier partnerships require both buyer and solutions with them.”
supplier organizations to articulate and gain buy-in to the value
of joint ownership of mutual business success. It’s only then
that partnerships can deliver desired outcomes.
Our study indicates multiple approaches used by organizations
to implement this strategy, such as: embedding a rep from the
buyer organization in suppliers’ operations (63% of survey
respondents report doing so). Also, employing KPI dashboard to
identify areas of improvement (54%) and holding regular
performance review meetings to find workable solutions (50%).
Organizations also report investing in capabilities to improve
their internal procurement processes. These investments
include: implementing supplier management software (79% of
survey respondents indicate a higher use of this tool by 2030),
using analytics for reviewing supplier performance (73%) and
conducting spend analysis (67%).

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 Technology Outlook: Efficiency, Speed, Accuracy
“In my experience, purchasing and sourcing groups are
doing much more tactical work than you would expect at
this point in the evolution of strategic sourcing. So I think
technology is really important from the sense of anything
that you can automate allows your team members to focus
more on value and not on those administrative things.”
Our survey results indicate a near consensus among sourcing
and procurement professionals about technology adoption
in this organizational function. Owing to a slow start in this
area compared to other areas of their organizations,
sourcing professionals believe that there is much room for
technology to help improve efficiency and the speed of
procurement processes (76% of survey respondents agree),
NEED OF THE HOUR improve information accuracy (76%) and maximize human
value by automating routine procurement tasks (67%).
“Technology is no longer
just important for Fortune Therefore, organizations are planning to make significant
100 companies. It's a need investments in deploying procurement technologies and
for anybody that has a analytics applications. Looking toward 2030, our study finds
that organizations will deploy technology for spend analysis,
complex supply chain. It
requisitioning, setting up contracts and the eventual
has become a critical part
purchasing of products. Though currently still in a growth
of your sourcing strategy.” stage, such technologies are expected to advance to
maturity as we approach the next decade.
Closely following e-Procurement as the top opportunity for
technology deployment are artificial intelligence (AI) and
machine learning (ML) applications. Our survey results show
that while the use of AI and ML applications in sourcing and
procurement is still in its early stages, these technologies
will see a rapid increase in use by 2030.
Typical applications of AI and ML in sourcing and
procurement include: supplier selection decisions for
routine purchases, procurement analytics, spend analysis,
and supplier performance management. A similar increase in
use is anticipated in blockchain technology to help automate
buyer-supplier information exchange and provide supply
chain transparency.

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 “We used to think that traditional API connectivity provides
sufficient visibility to our inbound supply chain but that's clearly
not the case anymore. We are going to rapidly move from an
effort to look for our stuff all the time to where we can readily
know where things are. Right now, we're not there, but I think
by 2030 that will be off the table giving us broad visibility about
where our products are all the time.”
Due to the increased complexity and growing frequency of
supply chain disruptions, the overwhelming majority of our
survey respondents believe that supply chain digitization (80%)
will be critical for organizational success in the years
approaching 2030. A major benefit expected from these
technological advances is allowing procurement employees to
maximize their value by focusing on strategic issues.
WORK SMARTER
“So I think technology is really important from the sense of
“We've automated our anything that you can automate allows your team members to
get off those administrative and technical things. And focus on
processes to free up
more value driven activities like business continuity planning and
team members. Now
strategic sourcing. All of those things will help us make sure that
they are more geared
we're spending our time on things that matter, especially during
towards strategic work: uncertain times.”
To look at waste in the
process, to use spend To leverage these technological innovations, organizations need
analytics and predictive to develop a solid digital strategy for sourcing and procurement.
Such a strategy must be built around facilitating buyer-supplier
analytics.”
interactions. This means building digital connectivity where all
parties can share and access data and information, encouraging
collaboration, and improving supply chain visibility. A digital
sourcing and procurement strategy may also include
investments to build market intelligence and predictive analytics
capabilities. Tracking shifts in forecasted demand and adjusting
purchasing patterns will avoid unnecessary consumption of
constricted supply capacity.
The other important aspect of the digital strategy will be to
build a managerial talent pool that is trained to realize the full
benefits of these new technological capabilities, both
individually and as an enterprise. This will be especially critical in
the next ten years as organizations’ technology capabilities
become more mature, less cumbersome, and readily accessible.

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 Talent Management: Art and Science of Relational
Management
“We see procurement professionals as being more than
someone that can beat down a supplier to the lowest price,
but someone who can spark collaboration, and build the
relationships to help us move ahead.”
Our survey asked respondents to identify the key sourcing and
procurement managerial skills that will be most needed in the
coming years. Their response: ability to make complex
decisions, ability to leverage data and information, and a high
sense of business ethics.
“The future sourcing manager must not only be smart about
BUILDING
sourcing practices, but also accustomed to information
automation so that they can be more productive by focusing on RELATIONSHIPS
big-picture tasks that really are meaningful and create value.”
“Think of what you can
We asked our survey respondents to identify relevant technical bring together through the
skills for sourcing and procurement managers. The skill that art of collaboration – to
tops the list (picked by 61% of survey respondents): the ability
ensure that your suppliers
to work with technology applications.
understand that we win
This technical skill will become more relevant as organizations together, not by ourselves,
continue to modernize the procurement function through but all together. Make sure
investments in technology to automate procurement the incentives are aligned
processes. around that. Now that’s a
An important personality trait that was repeatedly mentioned model for a future leader.”
as critical for the future sourcing leadership is intellectual
curiosity. “You’ve got to be curious about what’s going on in
the industry that will make you successful because this industry
is changing rapidly. If you don't keep up and if you're not
curious, I'm afraid you're getting left behind.”
Another key skill that was highlighted by sourcing experts is
fostering supplier relationships. “The generation coming out of
college right now is the most technologically gifted that we've
seen. But in a procurement career, it's also about relationships
and being able to talk to people and communicate and find that
common ground, whether it's for cost negotiation or working
on deliveries or (supplier) development. That’s really what we
need more of.”

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 Given the importance of developing these management and
technical skills in the future leaders, it is a grave concern that
organizations report facing difficulty finding requisite talent.
Our survey respondents overwhelmingly (82%) agree that
recruiting and retaining sourcing talent is their top challenge for
the future.
To address this issue, organizations are focused on attracting
high caliber candidates to this profession by offering flexible
work schedules and enhancing employee’s sense of work/life
balance to improve the retention rate. Organizations are also
looking to increase training opportunities for the new hires and
offer additional benefits such as better medical coverage and
more paid holidays. LEADERSHIP
DEVELOPMENT
KEY TAKEAWAYS
In the wake of COVID-19, changes to sourcing and procurement “I think the biggest piece is
practices have arisen largely out of necessity. However, the a bona fide leadership
strategies developed to respond to the global challenges will development program. This
chart the course for the next decade. level of mentoring I think is
really important where they
Organizations seek suppliers that are responsible and agile,
thereby highlighting the value of building and fostering
learn about the whole
collaborative buyer-supplier relationships as a critical business and then come
organizational capability that will be key to success as we over to manage sourcing
approach 2030. and procurement.”
Such collaborations will naturally require sharing of information
to build trust. For that reason, supply chain digitization and
related technologies are slated to increase in value, especially in
terms of enhancing end-to-end visibility. These technologies will
allow for faster flow of information and thereby more informed
decision making.
Sourcing leaders in 2030 will need a thorough knowledge of the
products, a mastery of technology and the ability to use data for
decision-making. Moreover, they’ll need to leverage the soft
skills of communication and relational acumen to find and
maintain mutually beneficial partnerships with their strategic
supply partners.

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 INBOUND LOGISTICS – CRITICAL CAPABILITIES
“First, we tried to stop all our freight coming from overseas
because we didn't want it to sit in the warehouses, and
then we couldn't recover fast enough to get it here when
we did need it. And then all of a sudden we can’t get
capacity. It’s just been one bizarre situation after another.”

Challenging times are often inflection points where

organizations make necessary course corrections to remain
successful. Inbound logistics is in the midst of such an
upheaval that will require significant course corrections.
Ocean carrier alliances are upending the traditional rules of
engagement with shippers, while port delays and terminal
operation congestion indicate a need for systematic
overhauls. On the domestic front, shortages of drivers and
RELIEVING STRESS transportation capacity are issues that have reached a
pandemic level of their own.
“There is a lot of stress
Our inbound logistics focus group conversations highlighted
on our carrier network,
a number of issues. Key among them are: port congestion
and there's a lot of stress
and maritime shipping capacity. Both these issues have been
on suppliers production. highlighted on the national stage owing to recent demand
And those two things spikes and supply-side volatility. The strategic nature of
combined, create a these issues and their broad impact on the entire
pretty stressed system organization is what led 89% of our survey respondents to
overall.” state that inbound logistics is now considered an
organizational priority at their workplace.
This increased level of awareness is bringing into focus how
organizations intend to manage their inbound logistics
strategy. Eighty-five percent of the survey respondents say
that their organizations are refining business goals to reflect
a higher level of corporate attention on inbound logistics
outcomes.
A majority (83%) of the organizations are in the process of
developing better metrics to monitor the performance of
not only their internal operations, but also their
transportation and logistics partners. Around two-thirds
(77%) of survey respondents report an expected increase in
corporate funding and more resources to implement these
organizational priorities in the coming years.

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 Future Challenges: Capacity, Service and Power-play
Capacity Shortages = Higher Freight Rates
“I’d say the blinking red light for us is capacity. Procuring and
securing affordable freight capacity is our number one
challenge”
The transportation capacity crunch has been many years in the
making. The beginnings of this logistics crisis date back to the
volatile economic conditions of the past decade.
After losing one-fifth of national transportation capacity during
the Great Recession, carriers have remained cautious in fully
rebuilding anticipatory capacity. Further fueling this situation is
the ongoing truck driver shortage. Collectively, they create a
perfect storm for the inbound logistics industry. RIPPLE EFFECTS
In addition to road transportation woes, inbound logistics
“What do you do when
professionals are also concerned about maritime transportation.
All participants in the inbound logistics focus groups shared their
you can't move freight
concern about tight ocean transportation capacity. Many because carriers don’t
steamship lines have curtailed their sailing schedules, which has have capacity? It’s not
resulted in inadequate shipping capacity leading to organizations’ that it just creates
“inability to move things as fast as we would like.” problems for us in the
inbound side, these
The outcome of this situation is that shippers are paying far
more than what they consider reasonable. The current situation
problems ripple through
was declared a “profitability death trap” by our focus group the entire supply chain.”
participants. We notice a similar sentiment among a large
majority (70%) of our survey respondents who identify freight
rate volatility in maritime transportation as a major problem.
Limited people and equipment capacity often lead to rapid price
escalation, which is occurring in maritime transportation. The
current rate situation makes it harder for organizations to keep
freight flowing at palatable costs.
Many professionals signaled that today’s inbound capacity and
rate dynamics will persist through 2030. Among the survey
respondents, 81% placed workforce availability in their top
three future concerns. The related issues of inbound capacity
(70%) and volatile freight rates (65%) also are also worrisome
issues going forward.

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 Service Challenges
Related to the capacity challenge is the decline in carriers’
service performance. Nearly half of the survey respondents
identify it as a major inbound issue today. It is an even
bigger concern going forward, with 71% of survey
respondents including it in their top three challenges for
2030.
Sub-par service performance is not just about late
shipments or effort spent in settling unnecessary claims. A
key concern is that inbound service failures create supply
chain stress and disrupt the organization.
A primary contributor to inbound service failures is port-
related delays. Seventy-four percent of survey respondents BECOMING
indicate delays at the ports as the primary reason for poor
service outcomes today. Nearly two-thirds of them expect
COMPETITIVE
port-related delays and terminal container handling
“Over years we have done so
capacity to persist into the next decade.
little to diversify our port
This situation is especially worrisome because port infrastructure. To me that just
congestion and related delays spill over into other flies in the face of what United
transportation modes. States has always been about
“In most cases, the shortest route from China goes through … competition and striving for
Southern California. This means that we dump a lot of excellence. And to me it just
domestic shipping volume on to intermodal rail. Any delays doesn't feel like we’re striving
at the port stresses railroads and in-land truck movements for excellence.”
as well.”

Carriers’ Power-play:
Another issue at the top of inbound logistics professionals’
minds is the long-term trend of consolidation in the
transportation industry.
At this time, global logistics flows are managed by a handful
of carriers. In the U.S., intermodal rail is dominated by four
rail companies, whereas the ten largest steamship lines
now control 80% of maritime shipping (compared to 12% in
2000). This level of consolidation is dynamically shifting the
balance of power between shippers and carriers.

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 “How the carriers are managing these dynamics is what’s
changed. The alliances formed in the global container
shipping industry has led to more control over capacity and
pricing. The carriers have gotten very good at controlling
these things.”
By controlling capacity, steamship lines have created a
huge market leverage to drive up prices.
“Usually, they have not been a disciplined group. Not
anymore. Just shows that all the new alliances now has the
power to hold prices up, and I think it's here to stay!”
As a result, ocean freight costs have gone up as much as
60% to 75% compared to pre-COVID times. Such a power
shift means that shippers have reduced leverage to
A DIFFERENT TUNE negotiate lower rates and acquire capacity at favorable
terms.
“We didn't use to have
At the same time, carriers are displaying their newfound
much warehousing market power. “It's not uncommon that we would have
space. But we can’t just 15,000 pounds LTL shipments. Well … LTL carriers now
keep spending so much won't take more than six pallets or 10,000 pounds, so
on freight. We need that's definitely affected our shipping practices.”
more space. So pushing
Such a market outlook does not bode well for shippers.
for it was a hard sell
Many fear that carriers will not quickly add capacity and
previously. Now, not so reinstate the balance of power. Less leverage means less
much!” opportunity for lower freight rates.

Pressure on Inbound Warehousing:

The transportation capacity and freight rate situation has put
pressure on the inbound warehousing facilities as well. Owing
to transportation capacity volatility, many organizations are
adjusting their inventory replenishment policies.
“We're quickly realizing that we need to bring goods in sooner.
So we're going to carry larger inventory to help try to offset this
increase in delays and costs.”
But, such approaches put a lot of pressure on warehousing
facilities and require organizations to finance more capital to
secure additional storage capacity.

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 Logistics professionals are facing similar challenges in planning
their first-mile logistics (warehousing and shipping at the point
of origin). This situation is especially critical in industry
segments that rely on an efficient reverse logistics system that
re-circulates shipping containers to origin points around the
globe.
“Our Asian suppliers have 90% of their finished goods go
straight into a container. Our inability to get them empty
containers is hurting our inbound process.”
Adding to the inbound logistics managers’ transportation
capacity and warehousing pressure, carriers are adopting and
enforcing shorter container dwell time rules.
“You know those alliances are flexing their muscles and saying
great I’m going to make you turn this box in four days now. This CAUSE AND EFFECT
will completely change inbound logistics of our entire business.”
“I think carriers have
The required turnaround time for an incoming container is now
measured in days rather than weeks. To meet the new
learned that if they
turnaround rules, organizations are securing additional control capacity, they
warehousing and cross-docking capacity. While penalties for can raise freight rates
detention are avoided, the organizations often incur added and make a lot of
inventory handling and storage costs. money. Their pricing
power is causing our
costs to go up.”
Strategies and Tactics: Leveraging Collaborations
and Better Strategic Planning
Controlling Transportation Costs
In an effort to achieve lower transportation costs, 80% of our
study participants are adopting a more integrated approach to
transportation management. Implementation of this strategy
involves using business analytics to review rates and shift
inbound volume between modes or make greater use of
intermodal transportation.
Other elements of the integrated approach include
consolidating shipments for volume discounts (83% of survey
respondents) and optimizing routes and load configurations
(67%). The goal is to slow the pace of rate growth and avoid the
need to raise product prices to customers.

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 Another tactic highlighted by study participants to
control inbound transportation costs is the use of
predictive analytics. When selecting carriers and
logistics service providers it is imperative to assess
how much volume they can handle.
“Allocating multiple loads to a carrier solely based on
freight cost is short sighted. What needs to be
factored in is what volume exceeds a carrier’s
capability. How much more expensive is the ninth and
tenth load that you have to get these to another
carrier to haul? Once you factor that in, would it have
been cheaper to use a different carrier than the one
that had the lowest rate?”

Leveraging Logistics Partnerships

A FRIEND IN NEED Fostering long-term collaborations with carriers and
third-party logistics (3PL) service providers is a central
“Whenever the business strategy for combatting constrained capacity. “We
dynamics change, you end up continue to see the need for direct engagement and
relying on your strategic strategic long-term planning with carriers.”
relationships. And that's This focus on logistics partnerships is tied to the
what we will continue to do widespread belief that the capacity crunch is not
with our transportation temporary. With the majority of survey respondents
partners.” indicating that the situation will continue or get
worse in the years leading up to 2030, it is imperative
to be a shipper of choice for carriers. Doing so with
partner carriers will improve inbound transportation
managers’ abilities to secure freight capacity at the
best possible combination of rates and service.
“Carriers are becoming more selective, especially on
the ocean side, becoming more selective in terms of
who they're giving capacity to ... and if they forsake
some customers because of that, so be it.”
To manage this issue, 82% of the survey respondents’
organizations are aggressively pursuing efforts to
build long-term partnerships with transportation
carriers. Organizations are also reaching out to third-
party service providers to manage freight, provide

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 dedicated transportation, and secure needed warehousing
capacity.

A Holistic Review of Supply Chain Strategy

Owing to carriers’ current power and a bleak outlook for
transportation and port capacity, inbound logistics
professionals should adopt a holistic review of their sourcing
and inbound logistics strategies. This involves total cost and
tradeoff analysis that may lead to consideration of sourcing
location modifications, including near-shoring and domestics
sourcing.
“If container prices are going to stay at $5,000 per move, the
math is a lot different for us to evaluate other sourcing
CONNECTING THE alternatives, may be in the US and Mexico.”
DOTS Another option is to diversify maritime shipping routes to
avoid congested west coast ports. Expansion of the Panama
“When you’re going to Canal makes it more viable to move product to Gulf and east
have a three day service coast ports. However, this strategy will require continued
on a lane instead of two investment in waterways and port infrastructure expansion to
days, there will be more avoid a similar congestion problem as the west coast ports.
delays. Our purchasing The two strategies should be considered in tandem as new
group wants to know sourcing locations typically require transportation service and
these things to factor route modifications. Current efforts to expand sourcing
into sourcing decisions.” beyond China present a timely opportunity for inbound
professionals to rethink routing.
“We are at 65% reduction in China from three years ago. There
has been a big shift to other countries that has opened up
more inbound logistics options for us.”
Acknowledging the need to create synergies across inbound
logistics and sourcing functions, organizations are working on
improving communications between the two groups.
“We are now better integrated with our sourcing teams and
not operate in our functional silos. We discuss logistics
challenges and say what do purchasing need to do to help.”
Such a collaborative outlook will help organizations pursue
innovative solutions to the issues discussed above.

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 Technology Outlook: Power of Analytics
“The chaos that has ensued because of what's going on these
days has made it easier to get the finance executive to sign off
on an investment to build our digital capability.”

The inbound logistics side of the supply chain is ripe for

technology infusion. About 93% of our survey respondents
identify inbound logistics as fertile ground for digitization and
technology applications in the coming years.
The Top-3 benefits identified by our survey respondents for
using technology in the inbound logistics processes, include:
automating manual processes, improving shipment visibility,
and an improvement in process speed and efficiency.
WHERE’S MY
A key area where technology is expected to play a big role in the
future and is expected to receive significant investments by
SHIPMENT?
many organizations is carrier selection.
“I resisted using
“There are hundreds of carriers, so how do you know who’s the technology until we got
best carrier to haul your freight is? It's not that hard to see who to the point where we
has the best rate, but we want to know who can provide high didn’t know where our
quality and reliable service.” stuff was. So moving
Another key area highlighted by our study participants that is forward, that's a key
primed for technology applications is automating manual priority for me in terms of
inbound logistics processes. building the visibility
“We're still running on excel and phone calls which is really not a capability.”
way to run the business. It's not feasible down the road that
we're still relying on “who do I know in the industry that I can
call and get answers on what's coming next or what's
happening?”
Technologies that can address these issues at a reasonable cost
will gain widespread adoption. For that reason there is great
anticipation for technology adoption by 2030. Nearly 8 in 10
respondents anticipate acquiring predictive tools for risk
assessment and analyzing freight rates. Other logistics
applications where technology is expected to increase in use
include: carrier selection tools (79%), optimizing shipping routes
(77%), carrier score card performance reviews (77%) and in-
transit shipment visibility (77%).

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 A critical future technology where large investments are
needed is global network visibility. The vast majority
(86%) of survey respondents indicate plans to pursue
greater supply visibility over the next decade.
“It’s not just about your shipments that you see, but you
can see globally all the freight movement out there. If I'm
shipping routinely one way and there's another company
shipping the other way, then we can combine these
moves in a collaborative way.”
Such applications are available today, albeit at a
premium cost for the users. Most companies’ budgets
cannot handle these costs. Thereby, it’s essential that
technology innovations continue to reduce the cost to
allow for more organizations to afford these impactful
tools.
SKILLS OF THE FUTURE
Talent Management: Multi-skilled Professionals “The logistics talent needs
“What we used to manage manually has now gotten so are becoming more and
much more analytical. So understanding all the more about data and
different ways you can slice and dice data is a necessary information. Someone who's
managerial skill.” able to decipher what data
means, and then know how
As highlighted throughout this report, inbound logistics
is getting more complex by the day. This complexity
to act on that information in
requires developing management talent that is skillful at the physical space.”
managing data and has the competence to develop
meaningful insights and actionable information.
Our focus group participants stressed this critical
capability. “The future inbound logistics manager will be
an information-driven decision maker, rather than simply
overseeing task-driven execution.”
The need for an expanded skill set is essential for future
inbound logistics, according to the L-2030 participants.
“We need multi skilled people. It’s not that you can have
this person who is good in analytics and this other person
that is really good at operations, that is really good at
project management. The time is coming when we need
them to do all of it.”

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 The expanded skill set requires inbound logistics
professional to have a strong blend of decision-making
and critical thinking skills to supplement their operational
know-how and communication capabilities.
The need for a broader skill set among inbound logistics
professionals occurs at a time when most organizations
are struggling with recruiting and retaining talent.
The survey responses indicate that both recruiting and
retaining (71%) inbound logistics talent is an ongoing
concern. Fifty percent of the respondents state that
availability and readiness of logistics talent will become an
even bigger issue by 2030.
For young supply chain professionals seeking leadership
roles, the current shortage of talent in the inbound GROUNDED IN
logistics field creates many opportunities.
FUNDAMENTALS
To attract and retain the next generation of inbound
leaders, organizations will boost wages (88%) expand “Logistics is still a physical
training (87%) and offer flexible schedules (83%). world. You need people to be
also grounded in the
KEY TAKEAWAYS understanding of labor
management, the physical
Inbound logistics has never been more complex. The cost
movement of goods, and
and capacity challenges are expected to continue long
after the pandemic subsides. Inbound professionals must
know how that all works.”
diligently adjust their tactics and pursue new innovations.
Strategically, a balanced focus on cost and service is
required. Inbound managers must take a holistic look at
their freight, seeking opportunities to benefit from
consolidation, carrier partnerships, and mode shifting.
Successful adjustment of strategies and processes will
require extensive data to make effective decisions. Future
investment in transportation analytics tools to assess
options and visibility tools to monitor flows is needed.
Also needed is the right talent to develop and implement
change. Going forward, decision makers will need a strong
mix of data science and people skills to effect positive
outcomes in the inbound area.

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 LOOKING TOWARD 2030: YOUR SOURCING AND
INBOUND LOGISTICS ACTION PLAN

Recent times have demonstrated the critical role of strategic

sourcing and inbound logistics in the modern supply chains.
The impact of trade wars, pandemic-driven demand swings,
supply shortages, port congestion and related delays are
precursors of the complex times to come.
Based on the findings from the L-2030 Strategic Sourcing and
Inbound Logistics Study, we present the following key action
items to ensure that sourcing and logistics professionals will be
prepared for future challenges.
MORAL OF THE Action Item 1: Focus on collaborations and relationships
STORY Risk mitigation has become the cornerstone of recent sourcing
strategies. Our report indicates that this strategy will continue
“My biggest worry is into 2030. The best way for organizations to implement this
that we aren't going to strategy is to leverage their collaborative partnerships with
learn the lessons that suppliers and inbound transportation carriers. Fostering these
we should learn from relationships will help organizations build partnerships that can
what we've been add value through innovation and superior service.
through this past
Action Item 2: Leverage technology for decision-making
year.We can’t afford to
be unprepared. Let’s Technology is a valuable resource for enhancing managerial
start getting ready for value by automating routine tasks, allowing managers to focus
the coming times!” on strategic and relational goals. Organizations can deploy
artificial intelligence and machine learning applications to
integrate corporate information and synthesize data for rule-
based decision making. Incorporating these applications in
sourcing and inbound logistics can improve productivity and
conserve managerial resources for strategic initiatives.

Action Item 3: Incorporate end-to-end supply visibility

A successful execution of sourcing and logistics strategies
requires end-to-end visibility. This requirement is no longer just
conceptual, rather it is rapidly becoming a critical
organizational need. Investments in digitization, as well as
identification and tracking technologies, can improve data
accuracy and real-time reporting of product flows.

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 Organizations need to link technologically with their
suppliers and transportation carriers to incorporate visibility-
driven initiatives that will benefit all parties.

Action Item 4: Invest in developing leadership of the future

To avoid a potential capability gap, organizations need to
focus on developing multi-skill management talent. Future
leaders need to be attuned to the science of technology and
analytics. They also need to employ finesse and the art of
fostering relationships to effectively collaborate with
strategic supply partners and logistics service providers.
Investing in leadership development programs that enhance
such talents will pay huge dividends in the future.
KUDOS TO ALL
Action Item 5: Learn from the past (present) The Logistics 2030 study
While the events of the recent past could not have been would not be possible
anticipated, the sheer lack of preparedness by so many without the input of sourcing
organizations indicates a leadership failure in supply chain and inbound logistics
preparedness. Many experts in our focus groups share a professionals. Their expert
concern that when things calm down after the pandemic, insights are the foundation of
their organizations will go back to business as usual. Let’s this year’s L-2030 report.
not allow history to repeat itself by being unprepared! Learn
from the past and develop sound contingency plans. Don’t
Thanks to everyone who
wait until next disruption – be proactive now rather than
reactive later!
participated!

The year 2030 may appear far away during the daily grind of
2021, but the foundational trends that will define the
business environment in a decade are already in the works.
Proactive and directed planning is needed to prevail in the
business battles yet to come. Succeeding under these
conditions requires investments in technology, talent
development, and business process transformation. It is
imperative to start that work now and develop innovative
sourcing and inbound logistics strategies that will ensure
your organization’s continued success. Use insights from this
report to build the requisite capabilities and get ready for
the challenges headed our way by the year 2030!

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 THE L-2030 STUDY RESEARCH TEAM
Rafay Ishfaq is the W. Allen Reed Associate Professor of
Supply Chain Management at Auburn University. Building on
his decade long managerial experience in supply and
production management roles, he has been involved in
teaching and industry-focused research for over 15 years.

Contact: rafay.ishfaq@auburn.edu

RAFAY ISHFAQ, Ph.D.

Ian Slazinik is the Lieutenant Colonel in the US Air

Force and has 18 years of experience in military
logistics. He is currently pursuing a PhD degree in
Supply Chain Management at Auburn University with
a research focus on supply chain digitization and
organizational information flows.

Contact: ims0026@auburn.edu
IAN SLAZINIK, Lt. Col.

Brian Gibson serves as Auburn University’s executive

director for the Center for Supply Chain Innovation and
the Wilson Family Professor of SCM. His twenty-seven
years of teaching, research and industry engagement are
complemented by nine years of retail distribution
management experience.

Contact: brian.gibson@auburn.edu
BRIAN GIBSON, Ph.D.

Auburn University
Center for Supply Chain Innovation (CSCI)
CSCI is your conduit for faculty, student, and industry
engagement. We support the supply chain industry through
insightful research, tailored professional enrichment
programs, advisory services, and industry-ready talent.

Visit www.AuburnSCM.org

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 THE L-2030 STUDY PARTNER ORGANIZATIONS
Council of Supply Chain Management Professionals
Since 1963, the Council of Supply Chain Management Professionals
(CSCMP) has been the preeminent worldwide professional association
dedicated to the advancement and dissemination of research and
knowledge on supply chain management. With CSCMP members located
around the world representing nearly all industry sectors, government,
and academia, CSCMP members receive unparalleled networking
opportunities, cutting-edge research, and online and on-site professional
educational opportunities. To learn more, visit cscmp.org or follow
CSCMP on social media: Facebook, LinkedIn, Twitter, and YouTube.

National Shippers Strategic Transportation

NASSTRAC, is a professional organization focused on shippers and
transportation. Founded in 1952, their mission is "providing education,
advocacy and provider relations to transportation, logistics and supply
chain professionals who manage freight" across all modes." Led by their
Executive Director, Gail Rutkowski, NASSTRAC provides its members with
content, education, advocacy and engaged events driving real time value
for decision making. Visit nasstrac.org

AGiLE Business Media

AGiLE Business Media, LLC is the leading publisher of business content for
logistics, material handling, and supply chain executives. Its publications
include DC Velocity, the market's first comprehensive logistics media
brand covering the full spectrum of the logistics market, as well as
CSCMP’s Supply Chain Quarterly, the official media brand of the Council
of Supply Chain Management Professionals. Focused on the
informational needs of high-level supply chain decision makers, The
Quarterly reaches 100% of the Council of Supply Chain Management
Professionals' membership—a claim no other magazine can make.

KPMG
KPMG LLP is the U.S. member firm of the KPMG global organization of
independent professional services firms providing audit, tax and advisory
services. The KPMG global organization operates in 146 countries and
territories and has close to 227,000 people working in member firms
around the world. Our 2,000 plus supply chain professions are skilled in
all areas of supply chain operations from strategy and analytics, supply
chain risk, planning and execution, and logistics and distribution. We also
have the capabilities to help you integrate tax planning into your business
operations to help minimize expenses and risk, enhance return on
investment, and drive efficiencies across operations. To learn more,
please visit https://read.kpmg.us/supplychain

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 Copyright 2021, Auburn University Center for Supply Chain Innovation
All rights of any nature reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any
form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, without written permission from the copyright owners.

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