Eng
Eng
Tuberculosis
   Report
    2022
Global tuberculosis report 2022
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Acknowledgements vii
Abbreviations xiii
1. Introduction 1
4. Conclusions 33
References 34
“
	 If the pandemic has taught us anything, it’s that with
  solidarity, determination, innovation and the equitable use of
  tools, we can overcome severe health threats. Let’s apply those
  lessons to tuberculosis. It is time to put a stop to this long-time
                                             ”
  killer. Working together, we can end TB.
     Dr Tereza Kasaeva
     Director
     WHO Global TB Programme
“
    	 The report provides important new evidence and makes a
      strong case for the need to join forces and urgently redouble
      efforts to get the TB response back on track to reach TB targets
      and save lives. It will be an essential resource for countries,
      partners and civil society in the lead up to the second
                                                        ”
      UN high-level meeting on TB to be held in 2023.
Acknowledgements
The Global tuberculosis report 2022 and accompanying           The production of the core report document was
online materials and products were produced by a core      coordinated by Katherine Floyd and Irwin Law. The main
team of 15 people: Annabel Baddeley, Saskia den Boon,      text was written by Katherine Floyd. Irwin Law organ-
Anna Dean, Hannah Monica Dias, Dennis Falzon, Kath-        ized the preparation of all figures and tables, which
erine Floyd, Inés García Baena, Nebiat Gebreselassie,      were produced by Anna Dean, Peter Dodd (Sheffield
Philippe Glaziou, Marek Lalli, Irwin Law, Peter Nguhiu,    University, United Kingdom of Great Britain and North-
Lana Syed, Hazim Timimi and Takuya Yamanaka. The           ern Ireland), Philippe Glaziou, Irwin Law, Peter Nguhiu,
team was led by Katherine Floyd. Overall oversight was     Hazim Timimi and Takuya Yamanaka. Annexes 1, 3 and
provided by the Director of the Global TB Programme,       6 were prepared by Katherine Floyd; Annexes 2 and 4 by
Tereza Kasaeva.                                            Hazim Timimi; and Annex 5 by Anna Dean and Katherine
    The data collection forms were developed by            Floyd, with inputs from Nimalan Arinaminpathy (Impe-
Philippe Glaziou and Hazim Timimi, with input from staff   rial College London, United Kingdom) and Peter Dodd
throughout the WHO Global TB Programme. Pedro Ave-         (Sheffield University, United Kingdom). The report team
dillo, Marek Lalli, Ernesto Montoro, and Anna Stukalova    is very grateful to Nimalan Arinaminpathy and Peter
assisted with translations of new content into French,     Dodd for their key contributions to the estimates of TB
Russian and Spanish. Hazim Timimi led and organized        disease burden that are included in the report. Nimalan
all aspects of data and code management, including the     Arinaminpathy produced all of the estimates of TB inci-
preparation and implementation of the online system        dence and mortality in 2020 and 2021 that were based
used for the 2022 round of global TB data collection       on country or region-specific dynamic models (27 and
from 215 countries, territories and areas.                 26 countries, respectively) and Peter Dodd produced
    Data were reviewed by the following people at WHO      all of the estimates related to the incidence of rifampic-
headquarters: Annabel Baddeley, Saskia den Boon,           in-resistant TB in the period 2015–2021.
Annemieke Brands, Anna Dean, Dennis Falzon, Inés               The webpages that accompany the core report doc-
García Baena, Nebiat Gebreselassie, Medea Gegia, Avi-      ument include expanded and more detailed content
nash Kanchar, Alexei Korobitsyn, Marek Lalli, Cecily       for seven major topics: 1) the COVID-19 pandemic and
Miller, Ernesto Montoro, Carl-Michael Nathanson, Peter     TB, prepared by Katherine Floyd and Takuya Yamana-
Nguhiu, Linh Nguyen, Liana Oganezova, Gita Parwati,        ka; 2) TB disease burden, comprising TB incidence
Samuel Schumacher, Lana Syed, Hazim Timimi, Sabine         (prepared by Katherine Floyd and Irwin Law, based
Verkuijl, Yi Wang and Takuya Yamanaka. Data for the        on analyses undertaken by Nimalan Arinaminpathy,
European Region were collected and validated jointly       Peter Dodd, Philippe Glaziou and Hazim Timimi), TB
by the WHO Regional Office for Europe and the Europe-      mortality (prepared by Katherine Floyd and Irwin Law,
an Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC).       based on analyses undertaken by Nim Arinaminpathy,
    UNAIDS managed the process of data collection from     Peter Dodd, Philippe Glaziou and Hazim Timimi), drug-
national AIDS programmes and provided access to their      resistant TB (prepared by Anna Dean, Peter Dodd and
TB/HIV dataset. Review and validation of TB/HIV data       Hazim Timimi) and national TB prevalence surveys (pre-
were both undertaken in collaboration with UNAIDS staff.   pared by Katherine Floyd and Irwin Law); 3) TB diagnosis
    Doris Ma Fat from the WHO Mortality and Burden of      and treatment, prepared by Katherine Floyd and Takuya
Disease team provided data from the WHO Mortality          Yamanaka, with contributions from Nazir Ismail, Alexei
Database that were used to estimate TB mortality among     Korobitsyn, Fuad Mirzayev and Carl-Michael Nathanson;
HIV-negative people; and Juliana Daher and Mary Mahy       4) TB prevention, prepared by Annabel Baddeley, Saskia
(UNAIDS) provided epidemiological data that were used      den Boon, Dennis Falzon and Hazim Timimi; 5) Financ-
to estimate HIV-associated TB incidence and mortality.     ing for TB prevention, diagnostic and treatment servic-
    Many people contributed to the analysis of data,       es, prepared by Peter Nguhiu with contributions from
preparation of figures and tables, and writing required    Katherine Floyd and Inés García Baena; 6) Universal
for the core report document and the expanded web-         health coverage (UHC) and TB determinants, prepared
based content and mobile app which accompany it.           by Takuya Yamanaka with contributions from Katherine
Unless otherwise specified, those named work in the        Floyd and Ernesto Jaramillo; and 7) TB research and
WHO Global TB Programme.                                   innovation, prepared by Nebiat Gebreselassie and Irwin
1	
     The membership of the Task Force is described at
     https://www.who.int/groups/civil-society-task-force-on-tb.
Milestone: Milestone:
                                                                                                                          Zero             48%
                                     reduction            reduction              reduction        reduction                                of people with TB
                                     2015–2025            2015–2021              2015–2025        2015–2021                in 2025         face catastrophic
                                                                                                                                           costs
        Target:
                       26.3  million
                                                     Target:
                                                                           1.9   million
                                                                                                     Target:
                                                                                                                           649 000                 Target:
                                                                                                                                                               17 700
                       (66%)                                               (54%)                                           (43%)                               (15%)
      40 million                                   3.5 million                                     1.5 million                                    115 000
      2018–2022         treated in                 2018–2022               treated in              2018–2022               treated in            2018–2022     treated in
                        2018–2021                                          2018–2021                                       2018–2021                           2018–2021
        Target:
                       12.5 million                 Target:
                                                                          10.3 million               Target:
                                                                                                                           1.6 million            Target:
                                                                                                                                                               0.60 million
                       (42%)                                              (>100%)                                          (40%)                               (3.0%)
      30 million                                   6 million                                        4 million                                   20 million
      2018–2022        treated in                 2018–2022                treated in              2018–2022               treated in           2018–2022      treated in
                       2018–2021                                           2018–2021                                       2018–2021                           2018–2021
Tuberculosis (TB) is a communicable disease that is a        istries of health in annual rounds of data collection.1 In
major cause of ill health and one of the leading causes of   2022, 202 countries and territories with more than 99%
death worldwide. Until the coronavirus (COVID-19) pan-       of the world’s population and TB cases reported data
demic, TB was the leading cause of death from a single       (Annex 2).
infectious agent, ranking above HIV/AIDS.                        During the COVID-19 pandemic, WHO has also col-
   TB is caused by the bacillus Mycobacterium tubercu-       lected provisional monthly or quarterly national TB
losis, which is spread when people who are sick with         case notification data on an ongoing basis from more
TB expel bacteria into the air (e.g. by coughing). About     than 100 countries with about 90% of the world’s TB
a quarter of the global population is estimated to have      cases, including all high TB burden countries (Annex 3).
been infected with TB (1), but most people will not go       The data are visualized and made publicly available as
on to develop TB disease and some will clear the infec-      soon as they are reported (5, 6). They are being used for
tion (2, 3). Of the total number of people who develop       timely monitoring of the impact of the pandemic on TB
TB each year, about 90% are adults, with more cases          case detection, to facilitate timely action in response
among men than women. The disease typically affects          to observed disruptions, and as a key input to the esti-
the lungs (pulmonary TB) but can affect other sites as       mates of TB disease burden (incidence and mortality)
well.                                                        for 2020 and 2021 that are included in this report.
   Without treatment, the death rate from TB disease             The 2022 edition of the report has been produced in
is high (about 50%) (4). With currently-recommended          a format that is optimized for web or app-based access
treatments (a 4–6 months course of anti-TB drugs), about     and use. There is a short main report that focuses on
85% of people can be cured. Regimens of 1–6  months          key findings and messages (this document); webpages
are available to treat TB infection. Universal health cov-   containing more detailed and digitized content, includ-
erage (UHC) is necessary to ensure that all people with      ing a large number of interactive graphics;2 and an app
disease or infection can access these treatments. The        containing country, regional and global profiles as well
number of people acquiring infection and developing          as two slide-sets (Annex 4).3 This format allows content
disease (and in turn the number of deaths caused by          to be made available in relatively small and “bite-sized”
TB) can also be reduced through multisectoral action to      chunks,4 which facilitates navigation, reading and use,
address TB determinants such as poverty, undernour-          especially for the vast majority of people (>90%) who
ishment, HIV infection, smoking and diabetes.                access the report via a computer, tablet or mobile
   Some countries have already reduced their burden          phone, rather than via a printed copy. All content can be
of TB disease to fewer than 10 cases and less than           accessed from the report landing page and all data can
one death per 100  000 population per year. Research         be downloaded from WHO’s online global TB database
breakthroughs (e.g. a new vaccine) are needed to rap-        (5).
idly reduce the number of new cases each year (i.e. TB           The top findings and messages of the 2022 report are
incidence) worldwide to the levels already achieved in       highlighted in Box 1.
these low-burden countries.
   Basic facts about TB and its treatment are provided       1	
                                                                  The data are collected from national TB programmes (NTPs) or
                                                                  the national entity responsible for TB surveillance.
in Annex 1.                                                  2	
                                                                  The webpages cover seven major topics: the COVID-19 pandemic
   The World Health Organization (WHO) has published              and TB; TB disease burden; TB diagnosis and treatment; TB
a global TB report every year since 1997. The purpose             prevention; TB financing; UHC and TB determinants; and TB
of the report is to provide a comprehensive and up-to-            research and innovation. There are also webpages on “featured
                                                                  topics”, which this year include engagement of communities,
date assessment of the status of the TB epidemic and              civil society and people affected by TB in the TB response;
progress in the response at global, regional and nation-          international donor funding for TB; multisectoral accountability
al levels, in the context of global commitments, strate-          for the TB response; and TB-related innovations during the
                                                                  COVID-19 pandemic.
gies and targets.                                            3	
                                                                  The app is free to download and enables users to have access to
   The 2022 edition of the report is, as usual, based             data for many key indicators at their fingertips.
primarily on data gathered by WHO from national min-         4	
                                                                  In contrast to the format of a single report document of about
                                                                  200–300 pages, which was used until 2020.
      The COVID-19 pandemic continues to have a damaging                  high quality and coverage are needed for more accurate
      impact on access to TB diagnosis and treatment and                  estimation in the wake of the pandemic.
      the burden of TB disease. Progress made in the years up
                                                                          Other negative impacts on TB during the COVID-19
      to 2019 has slowed, stalled or reversed, and global TB
                                                                          pandemic include a fall between 2019 and 2020 in the
      targets are off track.
                                                                          number of people provided with treatment for RR-TB
      The most obvious and immediate impact was a large                   and multidrug-resistant TB (MDR-TB)b (–17%, from
      global drop in the reported number of people newly                  181 533 to 150 469, about 1 in 3 of those in need), with
      diagnosed with TB. From a peak of 7.1 million in 2019,              a partial recovery (+7.5%) to 161 746 in 2021; and a
      this fell to 5.8 million in 2020 (–18%), back to the level          decline in global spending on essential TB services (from
      last seen in 2012. In 2021, there was a partial recovery, to        US$ 6.0 billion in 2019 to US$ 5.4 billion in 2021, less than
      6.4 million (the level of 2016–2017). The three countries           half of what is needed).
      that accounted for most of the reduction in 2020 were
                                                                          There is a strong and enduring relationship between TB
      India, Indonesia and the Philippines (67% of the global
                                                                          incidence rates per capita and indicators of development
      total). They made partial recoveries in 2021, but still
                                                                          such as average income and undernourishment.
      accounted for 60% of the global reduction compared
                                                                          Economic and financial barriers can affect access
      with 2019. Other high TB burden countries with large
                                                                          to health care for TB diagnosis and completion of
      relative year-to-year reductions (>20%) included
                                                                          TB treatment; about half of TB patients and their
      Bangladesh (2020), Lesotho (2020 and 2021), Myanmar
                                                                          households face catastrophic total costsc due to TB
      (2020 and 2021), Mongolia (2021) and Viet Nam (2021).
                                                                          disease. Progress towards universal health coverage
      Reductions in the reported number of people diagnosed               (UHC), better levels of social protection and multisectoral
      with TB in 2020 and 2021 suggest that the number of                 action on broader TB determinants are all essential to
      people with undiagnosed and untreated TB has grown,                 reduce the burden of TB disease.
      resulting first in an increased number of TB deaths
                                                                          There are some positive findings and success stories.
      and more community transmission of infection and
      then, with some lag-time, increased numbers of people               ▶	 Globally, the success rate for people treated for TB
      developing TB.                                                         in 2020 was 86%, the same level as 2019, suggesting
                                                                             that the quality of care was maintained in the first
      Globally, the estimated number of deaths from TB
                                                                             year of the COVID-19 pandemic.
      increased between 2019 and 2021, reversing years of
      decline between 2005 and 2019. In 2021, there were                  ▶	In the WHO African Region, the impact of COVID-
      an estimated 1.4 million deaths among HIV-negative                     related disruptions on the reported number of people
      people (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 1.3–1.5 million)                newly diagnosed with TB was limited. There was a
      and 187 000 deaths (95% UI: 158 000–218 000) among                     relatively small decrease (–2.3%) from 2019–2020 and
      HIV-positive people,a for a combined total of 1.6 million.             an increase in 2021.
      This was up from best estimates of 1.5 million in 2020
      and 1.4 million in 2019, and back to the level of 2017. The         ▶	 Following large falls in 2020, the reported number of
      net reduction from 2015 to 2021 was 5.9%, about one                    people newly diagnosed with TB in 2021 recovered
      sixth of the way to the first milestone of the WHO End TB              to 2019 levels (or beyond) in five high TB burden
      Strategy.                                                              countries: Bangladesh, the Congo, Pakistan, Sierra
                                                                             Leone and Uganda.
      An estimated 10.6 million people (95% UI: 9.9–11 million)
      fell ill with TB in 2021, an increase of 4.5% from                  ▶	 The global number of people provided with TB
      10.1 million (95% UI: 9.5–10.7 million) in 2020. The TB                preventive treatment recovered in 2021, to close to
      incidence rate (new cases per 100 000 population per                   2019 levels, and the global target for provision of
      year) rose by 3.6% between 2020 and 2021, reversing                    treatment to people living with HIV was surpassed.
      declines of about 2% per year for most of the previous              ▶	 Three high TB burden countries have reached or
      2 decades. The net reduction from 2015 to 2021 was 10%,                passed the first milestones of the End TB Strategy
      only halfway to the first milestone of the End TB Strategy.            for both reductions in TB incidence and TB deaths:
      The burden of drug-resistant TB (DR-TB) is also estimated              Kenya (in 2018), the United Republic of Tanzania (in
      to have increased between 2020 and 2021, with 450 000                  2019) and Zambia (in 2021). Ethiopia is very close.
      (95% UI: 399 000–501 000) new cases of rifampicin-                  Intensified efforts backed by increased funding are
      resistantb TB (RR-TB) in 2021.                                      urgently required to mitigate and reverse the negative
      Estimating TB disease burden during the COVID-19                    impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on TB. The need for
      pandemic is difficult and relies heavily on country- and            action has become even more pressing in the context
      region-specific dynamic models for low- and middle-                 of war in Ukraine, ongoing conflicts in other parts of the
      income countries (LMICs). New national population-                  world, a global energy crisis and associated risks to food
      based surveys of TB disease and up-to-date cause-of-                security, which are likely to worsen some of the broader
      death data from national vital registration systems of              determinants of TB.
a	
     Officially classified as deaths from HIV/AIDS.
b	
     Rifampicin is the most powerful first-line anti-TB drug. MDR-TB is defined as resistance to rifampicin and isoniazid.
c	
     Defined as direct medical expenditures, direct nonmedical expenditures and indirect costs (e.g. income losses) that sum to >20% of
     household income. This indicator is not the same as the Sustainable Development Goal indicator for catastrophic health expenditures (see
     Box 5 for further explanation).
In 2014 and 2015, all Member States of WHO and the Unit-                   per year), the absolute number of TB deaths and costs
ed Nations (UN) committed to ending the TB epidemic,                       faced by TB patients and their households.
through their adoption of WHO’s End TB Strategy (Box 2)                       Reaching the milestones and targets for reductions
and the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) (7,                        in TB incidence required an annual decline in the TB
8). The strategy included milestones (for 2020 and 2025)                   incidence rate of 4–5% per year by 2020, accelerating
and targets (for 2030 and 2035) for large reductions in                    to 10% per year by 2025 and then to an average of 17%
the TB incidence rate (new cases per 100 000 population                    per year from 2025 to 2035. Reaching the milestones
                                                                            A WORLD FREE OF TB
      VISION
                                                                            — zero deaths, disease and suffering due to TB
      GOAL                                                                  END THE GLOBAL TB EPIDEMIC
                                                                                     MILESTONES                          TARGETS
      INDICATORS
                                                                              2020              2025              2030             2035
      Percentage reduction in the absolute number of TB deaths      a
                                                                              35%                 75%             90%               95%
      (compared with 2015 baseline)
      Percentage reduction in the TB incidence rate
                                                                              20%                 50%             80%               90%
      (compared with 2015 baseline)
      Percentage of TB-affected households facing catastrophic
                                                                               0%                 0%              0%                0%
      costs due to TB b (level in 2015 unknown)
      PRINCIPLES
      1.	   Government stewardship and accountability, with monitoring and evaluation
      2.	   Strong coalition with civil society organizations and communities
      3.	   Protection and promotion of human rights, ethics and equity
      4.	   Adaptation of the strategy and targets at country level, with global collaboration
a	
     This indicator is for the combined total of TB deaths in HIV-negative and HIV-positive people. Deaths from TB among HIV-positive people
     are officially classified as deaths caused by HIV/AIDS, with TB as a contributory cause.
b	
     This indicator is not the same as the SDG indicator for catastrophic health expenditures. See Box 5 for further explanation.
Indicator Target
and targets for reductions in TB deaths required not                              ical expenditures and indirect costs (e.g. income losses)
only these declines in TB incidence, but also reductions                          that sum to >20% of household income.
in the case fatality ratio (CFR; the percentage of peo-                              Further details about the rationale for the milestones
ple with TB who die from the disease). The global CFR                             and targets and how they were defined is available else-
needed to fall to 10% by 2020 and then to 6.5% (a level                           where (9).
already achieved in high-income countries) by 2025. Key                              Efforts to step up political commitment to the fight
requirements to reach the milestones and targets were                             against TB intensified in 2017 and 2018.
defined within the three pillars of the End TB Strategy                              A WHO global ministerial conference on TB was
(Box 2). They included provision of TB prevention, diag-                          organized in November 2017. The outcome was the Mos-
nostic and treatment services within the context of pro-                          cow Declaration to End TB (10).
gress towards UHC and social protection; multisectoral                               In September 2018, the UN General Assembly held its
actions to address broader social and economic deter-                             first-ever high-level meeting on TB, attended by heads
minants of TB; and technological breakthroughs, such                              of state and government as well as other leaders. The
as a new TB vaccine by 2025.                                                      outcome was a political declaration in which commit-
   The third target of the End TB Strategy, that no TB                            ments to the SDGs and End TB Strategy were reaffirmed
patients and their households face catastrophic total                             and new ones added (11). Global targets for the funding
costs1 as a result of the disease, was set in recognition of                      to be mobilized for TB prevention, care and research,
the fact that removal of financial and economic barriers                          and for the number of people to be treated for TB infec-
to accessing TB diagnosis and treatment is a prerequi-                            tion and disease, were set for the first time (Table 1).
site for achieving the milestones and targets for reduc-                             A high-level review of progress achieved by the end of
tions in TB incidence and TB mortality. “Catastrophic” is                         2022 is scheduled for 2023 (Box 3).
defined as direct medical expenditures, direct nonmed-
        The UN General Assembly held its first-ever high-level meeting on TB in 2018. The main outcome was a political
        declaration (11), which reaffirmed existing commitments to ending the TB epidemic and set new global TB targets
        for the period 2018–2022. The declaration requested a progress report in 2020, to be prepared by the UN Secretary-
        General with support from WHO; and ended with a commitment to a “comprehensive review by Heads of State and
        Government at a high-level meeting in 2023”. The 2020 progress report (12) included 10 priority recommendations
        and requested WHO to work with Member States and other stakeholders on the preparations for a second high-level
        meeting on TB.
        Preparations for a second UN high-level meeting on TB in 2023 are now underway, led by the UN secretariat with
        support from WHO. The meeting will be informed by national high-level reviews of progress. WHO’s multisectoral and
        multistakeholder platform will be leveraged to support countries to undertake these reviews, in collaboration with
        WHO’s Civil Society Taskforce on TB. The meeting is expected to result in a new political declaration.
1	
      This indicator is not the same as the SDG indicator for
      catastrophic health expenditures (see Box 5 for further
      explanation).
   The overarching finding of this report is that the                                      2019 and 2020, followed by an almost complete recov-
   COVID-19 pandemic continues to have a damaging                                          ery in 2021. In the WHO European Region, there was a
   impact on access to TB diagnosis and treatment and                                      clear negative impact in 2020, but the reduction from
   the burden of TB disease. Progress made in the years                                    2020–2021 was consistent with the pre-2020 trend. In
   up to 2019 has slowed, stalled or reversed, and global                                  the WHO Western Pacific Region, there was no recovery
   TB targets are off track. The overarching message is                                    in 2021. The WHO African Region stood out as experi-
   that intensified efforts backed by increased funding are                                encing only a modest negative impact in 2020 (–2.3%),
   urgently required to mitigate and reverse the negative                                  and notifications in 2021 were above the 2019 level. The
   impacts of the pandemic on TB. The need for action                                      WHO regions of South-East Asia and the Western Pacific
   has become even more pressing in the context of war in                                  accounted for most of the global reductions (compared
   Ukraine, ongoing conflicts in other parts of the world, a                               with 2019): 84% of the total in 2020, and 99% in 2021.
   global energy crisis and associated risks to food securi-                                  Most (90%) of the global reduction in the reported
   ty, which are likely to further worsen some of the broad-                               number of people newly diagnosed with TB between
   er determinants of TB.                                                                  2019 and 2020 was accounted for by 10 countries
                                                                                           (Fig.  3a), with the top three (India, Indonesia and the
   TB case notifications                                                                   Philippines) accounting for 67%. In 2021, 90% of the
   Big fall in 2020, partial recovery in 2021                                              reduction compared with 2019 was accounted for by
   The most obvious and immediate impact on TB of dis-                                     only five countries (Fig. 3b).
   ruptions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic was a large                                       Among the 30 high TB burden and three global TB
   global fall in the number of people newly diagnosed                                     watchlist countries (Fig.  4), the largest relative reduc-
   with TB and reported (i.e. officially notified) in 2020,                                tions in annual TB case notifications between 2019
   compared with 2019 (Fig. 1). Following large increases                                  and 2020 (ordered according to the size of the relative
   between 2017 and 2019, there was a reduction of 18%                                     reduction) were in the Philippines, Lesotho, Indonesia,
   between 2019 and 2020, from 7.1 million to 5.8 million.                                 Zimbabwe, India, Myanmar and Bangladesh (all >20%).
   There was a partial recovery in 2021, to 6.4 million.                                   In 2021, there was considerable recovery in India, Indo-
      A similar pattern of increases in notifications of peo-                              nesia and the Philippines, although not to 2019 levels.
   ple newly diagnosed with TB up to 2019 followed by a                                    In Myanmar, the reduction in TB notifications in 2021
   sharp fall in 2020 and some recovery in 2021 is evident                                 was even larger than in 2020. Other countries with large
   in two of the six WHO regions: the Americas and South-                                  relative reductions between 2020 and 2021 included
   East Asia (Fig.  2). The WHO Eastern Mediterranean                                      Mongolia and three other Asian countries that had been
   Region saw a marked reduction in notifications between                                  relatively unaffected in 2020: Cambodia, Thailand and
                                                                                           Viet Nam. In several African countries, notifications in
                                                                                           both 2020 and 2021 were higher than in 2019, with Nige-
   FIG.1                                                                                   ria being the most striking example. Countries in which
   Global trend in case notifications of people                                            2021 notifications recovered to 2019 levels (or beyond)
   newly diagnosed with TB, 2015–2021                                                      included Bangladesh, the Congo, Pakistan, Sierra Leone
                                                                                           and Uganda.
                                    7.5                                                       The 30 high TB burden and three global TB watchlist
Notifications per year (millions)
                                    1.45                                               0.23
                                                                                                                                       3.25
                                    1.40                                               0.22
                                                                                                                                       3.00
                                    1.35                                               0.21
                                                                                                                                       2.75
                                    1.30                                               0.20
                                                                                       0.52
                                    0.24
                                                                                                                                       1.35
                                                                                       0.50
                                    0.21
                                                                                       0.48                                            1.25
                                    0.18
                                                                                       0.46
                                                                                                                                       1.15
                                    0.15                                               0.44
   FIG. 3
   The top 10 countries that accounted for ≥90% of the global reduction in case notifications of
   people newly diagnosed with TB in 2020 and 2021, compared with 2019
   Countries that accounted for 90% of the reduction are shown in red.
                                                          (a) Reduction in 2020 compared with 2019                                 (b) Reduction in 2021 compared with 2019
                                               India                                                                       India
                                           Indonesia                                                                      Chinaa
                                       Philippines                                                                     Indonesia
                                              China   a
                                                                                                                   Philippines
                                       Bangladesh                                                                      Myanmar
                                            Pakistan                                                              South Africaa
                                           Myanmar                                                                     Viet Nam
                                      South Africa    a
                                                                                                            Russian Federation
   Russian Federation                                                                                                  Thailand
                                              Kenya                                                                      Angola
                                                          0      10       20        30       40       50                           0      10        20        30       40      50
                                                                      Share of reduction (%)                                                    Share of reduction (%)
   a	
                              Reductions in China and South Africa were consistent with, or a limited departure from, pre-2020 downward trends. See Fig. 5F.
                                  Philippines
                                     Lesotho
                                   Indonesia
                                  Zimbabwe
                                         India
                                    Myanmar
                                 Bangladesh
                         Russian Federation
                                    Pakistan
                                     Namibia
                                       Liberia
                                        Kenya
                                       Angola
                                        China
                                Sierra Leone
                                        Brazil
                                    Mongolia
                                       Gabon
                                 South Africa
                         Papua New Guinea
                                     Uganda
       Democratic People's Republic of Korea
                                       Congo
                                   Cambodia
                                    Viet Nam
                                     Ethiopia
                                    Thailand
                                Mozambique
                United Republic of Tanzania
                    Central African Republic
                                      Zambia
          Democratic Republic of the Congo
                                      Nigeria
a	
     The three global TB watchlist countries are Cambodia, Russian Federation and Zimbabwe (see Annex 3 for further explanation).
departure from a pre-2020 downward trend. The coun-                              about the risks of going to health care facilities during
tries in these two latter groups are mostly in the WHO                           a pandemic; and stigma associated with similarities in
African Region, consistent with the regional data shown                          the symptoms related to TB and COVID-19.
in Fig. 2.                                                                          Reasons for region and country variation in TB
   The substantial disruptions to TB case detection and                          notification trends between 2019 and 2021 include
reporting in 2020 and 2021 probably reflect both sup-                            differences in when they were first affected by the
ply-side and demand-side influences on TB diagnostic                             COVID-19 pandemic and the timing of subsequent waves
and treatment services. Examples include reduced                                 of infection, the severity of the impact, the extent to
health system capacity to continue to provide services;                          which restrictions were put in place and adhered to, the
reduced ability to seek care in the context of lockdowns,                        capacity and resilience of health systems, and trends in
and associated restrictions on movement; concerns                                the years leading up to the pandemic.
                                0                                        0                                        0                                        0                                       0
                                     2015      2017   2019   2021             2015     2017   2019   2021             2015    2017    2019   2021               2015     2017   2019   2021            2015      2017   2019   2021
                                0                                         0                                       0                                        0
                                     2015      2017   2019   2021             2015     2017   2019   2021             2015    2017    2019   2021               2015     2017   2019   2021
  a	
                         Countries are shown in descending order of the relative decline (%) between 2019 and 2020, which ranged from 37% down to 8.0%.
                          300 000
                                                                                                                                                                                              10 000
                                                                    300 000                                  15 000                                   60 000
                                0                                        0                                       0                                         0                                      0
                                     2015      2017   2019   2021             2015     2017   2019   2021             2015    2017   2019    2021               2015     2017   2019   2021            2015      2017   2019   2021
  a	
                         Countries are shown in descending order of the relative decline (%) between 2019 and 2020, which ranged from 21% down to 5.3%.
                                                                                                                                                                                               4 000
                            6 000                                                                            75 000                                    60 000
                                                                    100 000
                                                                                                                                                                                               3 000
                            4 000                                                                            50 000                                    40 000
                                                                                                                                                                                               2 000
                                                                     50 000
                            2 000                                                                            25 000                                    20 000
                                                                                                                                                                                               1 000
                                0                                        0                                       0                                          0                                      0
                                     2015      2017   2019   2021             2015     2017   2019   2021             2015    2017    2019   2021               2015     2017   2019   2021            2015      2017   2019   2021
  a	
                         Countries are shown in descending order of the relative decline (%) between 2019 and 2020, which ranged from 35% down to 9.7%.
  b	
                         The Russian Federation is included here rather than in group (f) because there was a clear discontinuity in the historic trend between 2019 and 2020: the
                         decrease was 20%, compared with an annual decline that ranged from 6.3% to 8.6% between 2015 and 2019.
                                                                    100 000
                           30 000                                                                            75 000
                                                                     75 000
                           20 000                                                                            50 000
                                                                     50 000
                           10 000                                                                            25 000
                                                                     25 000
                                0                                        0                                       0
                                     2015      2017   2019   2021             2015     2017   2019   2021             2015    2017    2019   2021
  a	
                         <5% decline between 2019 and 2020.
  b	
                         Countries are shown in descending order of the relative decline (%) between 2020 and 2021, which ranged from 26% down to 17%.
                               0                                           0                                      0                                       0                                         0
                                    2015     2017   2019       2021             2015   2017    2019   2021             2015   2017     2019   2021             2015      2017   2019   2021             2015    2017    2019    2021
                                    Zambia
                           50 000
40 000
30 000
20 000
10 000
                               0
                                    2015     2017   2019       2021
                                0                                           0                                      0                                      0                                         0
                                    2015     2017   2019       2021             2015   2017    2019   2021             2015   2017     2019   2021             2015      2017   2019   2021             2015   2017     2019    2021
 a	
                         China is included here rather than group (c), because although there was some departure from the historic trend between 2019 and 2020 (a 14%
                         decline compared with a decline of 8.4% between 2018 and 2019), there were also efforts during this period to reduce over-diagnosis. The proportion of
                         pulmonary cases that were bacteriologically confirmed increased from 47% in 2019 to 55% in 2020 and 58% in 2021. Year-to-year changes in Namibia also
                         appear related to the proportion of cases that were bacteriologically confirmed.
      During the COVID-19 pandemic, there have been                          ▶	Strict lockdowns resulted in a 50% reduction
      reductions in the reported numbers of people newly                       in transmission (UI: 25–75%). Reductions in
      diagnosed with TB that depart from pre-2020 trends                       transmission outside periods of strict lockdown
      (Fig. 1–Fig. 5). If these numbers reflect real reductions                were not assumed, although measures such as mask
      in diagnosis (rather than underreporting or a reduction                  wearing may have had an ongoing impact in some
      in TB incidence), there will have been an increase in the                countries.
      number of people in the community with undiagnosed
                                                                             Other influential assumptions, drawing on the scientific
      and untreated TB. In turn, this is likely to increase the
                                                                             literature, relate to the number of secondary infections
      transmission of infection. Other things being equal, the
                                                                             per case per year (estimated by model calibration) and
      sharper, faster and more prolonged the drop in TB case
                                                                             the rate of breakdown from TB infection to active TB
      detection, the bigger the size of these impacts.
                                                                             disease, which was informed by a recent (2018) review of
      Growth in the number of people with undiagnosed and                    TB models (17).
      untreated TB will result in an increase in the number of
                                                                             An important limitation is that the models do not yet
      deaths from TB within a relatively short time frame. The
                                                                             account for the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on
      impact of increased transmission on TB incidence (new
                                                                             broader TB determinants; thus, impacts on TB incidence
      cases) will be more delayed, due to the time lag (from
                                                                             and mortality may be understated.
      months to many years) between acquisition of infection
      and progression to TB disease.                                         The modelling methods have been extensively discussed
                                                                             and reviewed; for example, through:
      Periods of restrictions during the COVID-19 pandemic
      (e.g. lockdowns) as well as adjustments to behaviour                   ▶	 a review by WHO’s Strategic and Technical Advisory
      (e.g. wider use of masks) could also have reduced                         Group for TB (STAG-TB) in June 2021 (18);
      TB transmission in 2020 and 2021. Negative impacts
      of the pandemic on broader TB determinants (e.g.                       ▶	 a 2-day meeting of a subgroup of the WHO
      undernourishment, poverty and income per capita)                          Global Task Force on TB Impact Measurement
      could have influenced both TB incidence and mortality.                    (the Task Force) in May 2022 (16), which brought
                                                                                together 32 global experts in mathematical
      WHO has collaborated with Imperial College, United                        modelling, epidemiology and statistics as well as
      Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland (United                     representatives from national TB programmes (NTPs)
      Kingdom) on the development and implementation                            and partner agencies, with the specific purpose of
      of methods to estimate TB incidence and mortality                         reviewing methods used by WHO to estimate TB
      during the COVID-19 pandemic (15, 16). Country-                           disease burden during the COVID-19 pandemic; and
      specific dynamic models were developed to estimate
      TB incidence and mortality in 2020 and 2021 for 27                     ▶	 in an immediate follow-up to the Task Force meeting,
      countries. These included 26 countries that reported                      a further detailed review of model documentation
      large absolute reductions in TB notifications in 2020                     by several global experts in TB modelling, following
      or 2021 that departed from pre-2020 trends: Angola,                       which comments and suggestions were addressed.
      Azerbaijan, Bangladesh, Brazil, Cambodia, China,                       Further details about the methods used to estimate
      Colombia, India, Indonesia, Kazakhstan, Kenya,                         TB incidence and mortality in 2020 and 2021 (including
      Kyrgyzstan, Lesotho, Malaysia, Mexico, Mongolia,                       methods used for non-modelled countries) and those
      Myanmar, Nepal, Pakistan, Papua New Guinea, Peru, the                  used to produce estimates for 2000–2019 are provided in
      Philippines, the Russian Federation, Thailand, Viet Nam                Annex 5, the report webpages and a technical appendix.
      and Zimbabwe;a plus Timor-Leste.b The models were
      fitted to monthly or quarterly TB case notification data               Estimates in this report are consistent with those
      reported to WHO for the period since January 2020 (5)                  published in 2021 (15). In countries with the biggest
      and calibrated to pre-2020 estimates of TB incidence and               reductions in TB notifications compared with pre-2020
      mortality.c Region-specific models were used for 26 other              trends, the estimates show a slowdown in the rate of
      LMICs with reductions in TB notifications that departed                decline in TB incidence and an increase in the number of
      from pre-2020 trends.                                                  TB deaths between 2019 and 2020. Also, as suggested by
                                                                             the projections included in the 2021 report, the estimates
      Key assumptions in the models are:                                     in this report show an increase in TB incidence in 2021
      ▶	Reductions in TB case notifications in 2020 and 2021                 and a further increase in the number of TB deaths.
        reflected a negative impact on TB case detection
        and led to an increase in the number of people with
        undiagnosed and untreated TB in the community.d
a	
     The models were not used to estimate TB mortality in China and the Russian Federation, because those countries reported data on the
     number of deaths caused by TB in the period 2020–2021 based on their national VR systems.
b	
     A country-specific model was used for Timor-Leste because a regional model was not developed for the South-East Asia Region; most
     of the other countries in this region either met the criteria required for development of a country-specific model or notifications were
     consistent with pre-2020 trends.
c	
     Generally, these were estimates previously published by WHO, either for 2019 or for a combination of 2014 and 2019. For India, the
     calibration was to country-generated incidence estimates derived from a recently completed national TB prevalence survey, a previous
     state-level survey and programmatic data. Further details are provided in Annex 5 and a technical appendix.
d	
     It is possible that underreporting of detected cases contributed to reductions in case notifications, but there is currently no evidence to
     support this.
                                                              Total                                                                                                      Total
                                2.0                                                                                                        30
1.5
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
                                                                                                                                           2.4
  ble the number caused by HIV/AIDS (0.65  million), and                                                                                                                              TB deaths in
                                                                                                                                                                                  HIV-negative people
  TB mortality has been much more severely impacted by
  the COVID-19 pandemic than HIV/AIDS (Fig.  7). In con-                                                                                   1.0
  trast to TB, deaths from HIV/AIDS continued to decline                                                                                                                               HIV deaths
     The latest year for which WHO has published esti-                                                                                     0.3
  mates of global deaths by cause is 2019 (Fig. 8). In that                                                                                                                          TB deaths in
  year, TB was the 13th leading cause of death worldwide                                                                                                                          HIV-positive people
  1	
                          The reduction in the total number of TB deaths between 2000
                          and 2019 was 41%. The net reduction between 2000 and 2021 was
                          36%.
  2	
                          This is consistent with their contributions to global reductions in
                          the reported number of people newly diagnosed with TB in 2020
                          and 2021 (Fig. 3).
  3	
                          In 2021, WHO updated its three lists of high burden countries for
                          TB, MDR/RR-TB and HIV-associated TB. The lists are for 2021–
                          2025, and they are defined and explained in Annex 3. Further
                          details about trends in these and all other countries are available
                          in the report webpages and mobile app.
                                                                                               0                  2                  4                 6                   8                    10
                                                                                                                                Number of deaths (millions)
    a	
                                           This is the latest year for which estimates for all causes are currently available. See WHO estimates, available at
                                           https://www.who.int/data/gho/data/themes/mortality-and-global-health-estimates/ghe-leading-causes-of-death
    b	
                                           Deaths from TB among HIV-positive people are officially classified as deaths caused by HIV/AIDS in the International Classification of Diseases.
    FIG. 9
    Trends in the estimated absolute number of TB deaths (HIV-positive and HIV-negative) by WHO
    region, 2000–2021
    The horizontal dashed line shows the first milestone of the End TB Strategy, which was a 35% reduction in the
    total number of TB deaths between 2015 and 2020. Shaded areas represent 95% uncertainty intervals.
1000 40
                                                                                                                                                       1000
                                                                                                           30
                                                  700
Total TB deaths per year (thousands, log scale)
700
                                                                                                           20
                                                  500
                                                                                                                                                        500
                                                   70
                                                                                                          100                                           200
50
                                                                                                           70                                           100
                                                   30
60 70
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
                                                                                                              (log scale)
                                                           and relapse cases                                                                                            and relapse cases
                                 3
                                                                                                                                        30
                                                                            HIV−positive                                                                                                      HIV−positive
                                                                              TB cases                                                                                                          TB cases
                                 1
                                                                                                                                        10
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
       In 2021, 82% of global TB deaths among HIV-negative                                                  COVID-19 pandemic (Fig. 1–Fig. 5, Box 4). The more pro-
    people occurred in the WHO African and South-East                                                       nounced impact of these disruptions on TB incidence in
    Asia regions; India alone accounted for 36% of such                                                     2021 compared with 20204 can be explained by time lags
    deaths. The WHO African and South-East Asia regions                                                     between increases in TB transmission (caused by more
    accounted for 82% of the combined total of TB deaths in                                                 people having undiagnosed and untreated TB) and sub-
    HIV-negative and HIV-positive people; India accounted                                                   sequent development of disease among a proportion of
    for 32% of such deaths.                                                                                 those newly infected. In 2021, there was an extra year
       Of the global TB deaths among HIV-negative people,                                                   for the consequences of disruptions in 2020 to manifest,
    54% were in men, 32% were in women and 14% were                                                         and these earlier disruptions were combined with the
    in children (aged <15  years). Of the global TB deaths                                                  impact of disruptions in 2021.
    among HIV-positive people, 51% were in men, 38% were                                                       At regional level, the TB incidence rate increased
    in women and 11% were in children.                                                                      between 2020 and 2021 in five of the six WHO regions
                                                                                                            (Fig.  11). The exception was the WHO African Region,
    Number of people developing TB                                                                          where disruptions related to COVID-19 have had little
    Global rise in 2021, years of decline reversed                                                          impact on the number of people diagnosed and official-
    An estimated 10.6  million people (95%  UI: 9.9–11  mil-                                                ly notified with TB (Fig. 2).
    lion) fell ill with TB worldwide in 2021, an increase of                                                   Geographically, in 2021, most people who developed
    4.5% from 10.1  million (95%  UI: 9.5–10.7  million) in                                                 TB were in the WHO regions of South-East Asia (45%),
    2020,1 reversing many years of slow decline (Fig.  10,                                                  Africa (23%) and the Western Pacific (18%), with small-
    left panel).2 Similarly, the TB incidence rate (new cases                                               er proportions in the Eastern Mediterranean (8.1%),
    per 100  000 population per year) is estimated to have                                                  the Americas (2.9%) and Europe (2.2%). The 30 high TB
    increased by 3.6% between 2020 and 2021, following                                                      burden countries accounted for 87% of all estimated
    declines of about 2% per year for most of the past 2 dec-                                               incident cases worldwide, and eight of these countries
    ades (Fig. 10, right panel).3                                                                           (Fig.  12) accounted for more than two thirds of the
       These sharp reversals of progress are consistent                                                     global total: India (28%), Indonesia (9.2%), China (7.4%),
    with previous projections (15) and reflect the estimated                                                the Philippines (7.0%), Pakistan (5.8%), Nigeria (4.4%),
    impact of disruptions to essential TB services during the                                               Bangladesh (3.6%) and the Democratic Republic of the
                                                                                                            Congo (2.9%).
    1	
                            The global estimate for 2020 is 0.2 million higher than that                       TB can affect anyone, regardless of age or sex
                            published in 2021 (15), following an upward revision to estimates
                                                                                                            (Fig.  13). The highest burden is in adult men, who
                            for India for the period 2000–2020. Estimates for India are
                            currently interim. Further details are provided in Annex 5.                     accounted for 56.5% of all TB cases in 2021; by compar-
    2	
                            The major contributors to the global increase between 2020 and                  ison, adult women accounted for 32.5% and children
                            2021 were India, Indonesia and the Philippines. Collectively, TB                for 11% of cases. The higher share of TB cases among
                            incidence rose by about 0.4 million in these three countries. This
                            is consistent with their contributions to global reductions in the              men is consistent with evidence from national TB prev-
                            reported number of people newly diagnosed with TB in 2020 and
                            2021 (Fig. 3).                                                                  4	
                                                                                                                             TB incidence (both in terms of absolute numbers and per 100 000
    3	
                            Globally, the TB incidence rate is estimated to have fallen by 30%                               population) did not increase between 2019 and 2020, but the
                            between 2000 and 2020.                                                                           annual rates of decline slowed slightly (15).
30
                                                             100                                                                                               100
                                                                                                             10
Incidence rate per 100 000 population per year (log scale)
                                                              10                                                                                                 10
                                                                                                              3
1 1 1
                                                                                                            100                                                100
                                                              30
                                                              10
                                                                                                             10
                                                                                                                                                                 10
                                                                                                              1
                                                               1                                                                                                  1
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
     FIG. 12
     Estimated TB incidence in 2021, for countries with at least 100 000 incident cases
     The countries that rank first to eighth in terms of numbers of cases, and that accounted for about two thirds of
     global cases in 2021, are labelled.
                                                                                                                                                                                               China
                                                                                                                                                                                           Bangladesh
                                                                                                                                                                                         Philippines
                                                                             Number of
                                                                           incident cases
                                                                                    100 000                                                        Pakistan
                                                                                                                         Nigeria
                                                                                     500 000
                                                                                                                                                              India
                                                                                                                  Democratic Republic                                 Indonesia
                                                                                     1 000 000                       of the Congo
2 000 000
FIG. 14
Estimated TB incidence rates, 2021
1	
     For further details, see Section 2.4 of the report webpages.
                      3
                                                                                  and a 41% reduction from 2000 to 2019) was compro-
                      2                                                           mised by increases in TB deaths in 2020 and 2021 (Fig. 6,
                                                                                  left panel).
                      1
                                                                                     At regional level, the WHO African Region is now clos-
                      0                                                           est to reaching the first milestone, with a 26% reduction
                            2015    2016      2017    2018   2019   2020   2021   between 2015 and 2021 (Fig.  9). The WHO European
                                                                                  Region had previously come close, with a reduction
                           Previously treated cases                               of 28% between 2015 and 2019,1 but this progress was
                                                                                  reversed in 2021; the net reduction by 2021 now stands
                     30                                                           at 21%. The decline compared with 2015 in the WHO
                                                                                  Eastern Mediterranean Region was small, at 1.9%. The
                                                                                  estimated number of TB deaths in 2021 was higher
Percentage
                     20
                                                                                  than in 2015 in the WHO regions of the Americas (+31%),
                                                                                  South-East Asia (+8.6%) and the Western Pacific (+19%).
                     10                                                              By 2021, six high TB burden countries had reached
                                                                                  or passed the first milestone of a 35% reduction in
                      0                                                           TB deaths compared with 2015 (Bangladesh, Kenya,
                            2015    2016      2017    2018   2019   2020   2021   Mozambique, Uganda, the United Republic of Tanza-
                                                                                  nia and Zambia), as had one of the one of the global TB
                                                                                  watchlist countries (the Russian Federation)2 (Fig.  18).
                                                                                  A seventh high TB burden country, Ethiopia, was very
                                                                                  1	
                                                                                       Progress in this region is strongly influenced by trends in the
                                                                                       Russian Federation.
                                                                                  2	
                                                                                       Alongside the list of 30 high TB burden countries for 2021–2025,
                                                                                       WHO has established a global TB watchlist. The watchlist
                                                                                       comprises the three countries that have transitioned out of the
                                                                                       previous list for 2016–2020, which warrant continued global
                                                                                       attention: Cambodia, the Russian Federation and Zimbabwe
                                                                                       (Annex 3).
Russian Federation
China
Philippines
                                                                                                                                            Pakistan
                                                                            Number
                                                                            of cases                                                                   India
                                                                                1000                                                                           Indonesia
                                                                                 10 000
    FIG. 18
    High TB burden and global TB watchlist countries estimated to have reached, by 2021, the first
    milestone of the End TB Strategy
    The horizontal dashed line shows the first milestone of the End TB Strategy, which was a 35% reduction in the
    total number of TB deaths between 2015 and 2020. Shaded areas represent 95% uncertainty intervals.
                                                                                            100                                                                            30
                                                       100                                                                    30
TB deaths (total, in thousands) per year (log scale)
                                                                                                                                                                           20
                                                                                                                              20
                                                                                            50
                                                        50
                                                                                            30                                10                                           10
                                                        30
                                                                                                                              30
                                                        30                                  100
                                                                                                                              20
                                                        20                                   50
30 10
10
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
     FIG. 19
     High TB burden and global TB watchlist countries estimated to have reached, by 2021, the first
     milestone of the End TB Strategy
     The horizontal dashed line shows the first milestone of the End TB Strategy, which was a 20% reduction in the
     TB incidence rate between 2015 and 2020. Shaded areas represent 95% uncertainty intervals.
                                                              300                                                                 300
                                                                                                                                                                    500
Incidence rate per 100 000 population per year (log scale)
100
                                                                                                                                                                          United Republic of
                                                                    Namibia                           Russian Federation                South Africa                      Tanzania
                                                             2000                                                                                                  1000
                                                                                                                                 2000
                                                                                               100
                                                             1000                                                                1000
                                                                                                                                                                    300
                                                                                                50
                                                              500                                                                 500
                                                                                                                                                                    100
                                                                                                30
                                                                                                                                        2000 2005 2010 2015 2020          2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Zambia Zimbabwe
                                                                                               1000
                                                             1000
                                                                                               500
                                                              500
                                                                                               300
                                                              300
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
        FIG. 20
        The relationship between GDP per capita and the prevalence of undernourishment, and TB
        incidence per 100 000 population, 2021a
                                               1000                                                                                                                        1000
Incidence per 100 000 population (log scale)
100 100
10 10
                                                   1                                                                                                                          1
                                                             1                        10                      100                                                                 3                  10                30
                                                                      GDP per capita (US$ thousands)                                                                              Prevalence of undernourishment (% of population)
        a	
                                               The year of data used for GDP per capita and undernourishment is the latest year for which data are available in the World Bank (https://data.worldbank.
                                               org/) and SDG (https://unstats.un.org/sdgs/dataportal) databases, respectively.
    1	
                                        For further details, see Section 2.1 and Section 2.2 of the report                     2	
                                                                                                                                                                    Further details are provided in Annex 5 and the technical
                                        webpages.                                                                                                                   appendix.
                                TB TREATMENT                                               TB TREATMENT
                                  (ALL AGES)                                                (CHILDREN)
                                  Target:
                                                         26.3million                          Target:
                                                                                                                      1.9million
                                                         (66%)                                                        (54%)
                                 40 million                                                 3.5 million
                                 2018–2022               treated in                         2018–2022                 treated in
                                                         2018–2021                                                    2018–2021
                                   Target:
                                                         649 000                             Target:
                                                                                                                      17 700
                                                         (43%)                                                        (15%)
                                 1.5 million                                                 115 000
                                 2018–2022               treated in                         2018–2022                 treated in
                                                         2018–2021                                                    2018–2021
   In 2021, 10 countries collectively accounted for 75%                              combination of underreporting of people diagnosed
of the global gap between estimated TB incidence and                                 with TB and underdiagnosis (owing to people with TB
the reported number of people newly diagnosed with                                   being unable to access health care or not being diag-
TB (Fig. 24). The top five contributors were India, Indo-                            nosed when they do). From a global perspective, efforts
nesia, the Philippines, Pakistan and Nigeria (24%, 13%,                              to increase levels of case detection are of particular
10%, 6.6% and 6.3%, respectively). Gaps are due to a                                 importance in these countries.
FIG. 24
The ten countries with the largest gaps between notifications of new and relapse (incident) TB
cases and the best estimates of TB incidence,a,b 2021
                                                                                                                                             China
                                                                                                                                             Viet Nam
Philippines
                                                                                                       Pakistan
                         Size of gap                                     Nigeria                                  India
                                70 000
                                                                                                                   Myanmar
                                  500 000                        Democratic Republic                                  Indonesia
                                                                    of the Congo
a	
     The ten countries ranked in order of the size of the gap between notified cases and the best estimates of TB incidence in 2021 are: India, Indonesia, the
     Philippines, Pakistan, Nigeria, China, South Africa, Myanmar, Viet Nam and the Democratic Republic of the Congo.
b	
     Incidence estimates for India are interim and subject to finalization, in consultation with the Ministry of Health & Family Welfare, India.
80
                                          60
Percentage bacteriologically confirmed
40
20
                                           0
                                                                                                                                                            2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
                                                European Region                  Eastern Mediterranean Region            Western Pacific Region
                                         100
80
60
40
20
                                           0
                                               2000 2005 2010 2015 2020         2000 2005 2010 2015 2020                2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
   a	
                                   Data are for notified cases. The calculation for years prior to 2013 is based on smear results, except for the European Region where data on confirmation
                                   by culture was also available for the period 2002–2012.
      In many countries, there is also a need to increase                                                         tries, those with the highest proportions (above 90%)
   the percentage of cases confirmed bacteriologically by                                                         included Namibia, Viet Nam and Zambia. Among the 49
   scaling up the use of recommended diagnostics, in line                                                         countries in one of the three global lists of high burden
   with WHO guidelines (19). The microbiological detection                                                        countries (for TB, HIV-associated TB and MDR/RR-TB),1
   of TB is critical because it allows people to be correct-                                                      26 reported that a WHO-recommended rapid diagnostic
   ly diagnosed, is necessary to test for drug resistance                                                         test had been used as the initial test for more than half
   and ensures that the most effective treatment regimen                                                          of their notified TB cases in 2021, up from 21 in 2020 and
   (depending on the pattern of drug resistance) can be                                                           18 in 2019.
   selected as early as possible.                                                                                    The global coverage of HIV testing among people
      Of the 5.3 million people diagnosed with pulmonary                                                          diagnosed with TB remained high in 2021, at 76% (up
   TB worldwide in 2021, 63% were bacteriologically con-                                                          from 73% in 2020). At regional level, the highest cov-
   firmed (Fig. 25). This was an increase from 59% (2.8 mil-                                                      erage in 2021 was achieved in the WHO African Region
   lion out of a total of 4.8 million) in 2020. There was some                                                    (89%) and the WHO European Region (94%). In 119
   variation among the six WHO regions, with the highest                                                          countries and territories, at least 90% of people diag-
   percentage achieved in the Americas (79%) and the                                                              nosed with TB knew their HIV status.
   lowest in the Western Pacific (56%). There was also con-                                                          Among people living with HIV who develop TB, both
   siderable variation among countries. In general, levels                                                        TB treatment and antiretroviral therapy (ART) for HIV
   of confirmation were lowest in low-income countries                                                            are required to prevent unnecessary deaths from TB
   (median, 69%), and highest in high-income countries                                                            and HIV. The global coverage of ART for people living
   (median, 89%) where there is wide access to the most                                                           with HIV who were newly diagnosed and reported with
   sensitive diagnostic tests.                                                                                    TB has been maintained at the high level of 89% since
      The use of rapid tests remains far too limited. A                                                           2019. However, when compared with the total number
   WHO-recommended rapid molecular test was used as                                                               of people living with HIV estimated to have developed
   the initial diagnostic test for only 38% (2.5 million) of the                                                  TB in 2021, coverage was only 46% (the same level as in
   6.4 million people newly diagnosed with TB in 2021, up                                                         2020). This was far below the overall level of coverage
   from 33% (1.9/5.8 million) in 2020 and 28% (2.0/7.1 mil-                                                       of ART for people living with HIV, which was 75% at the
   lion) in 2019. There was substantial variation among
   countries (Fig. 26). Among the 30 high TB burden coun-                                                         1	
                                                                                                                       See Annex 3.
                                                                                                          Percentage (%)
                                                                                                               <25
                                                                                                               25–49
                                                                                                               50–75
                                                                                                               76–90
                                                                                                               >90
                                                                                                               No data
                                                                                                               Not applicable
a	
     Data are for notified cases.
end of 2021 (20). The main reason for the relatively low           FIG. 27
coverage was the big gap between the estimated num-                Global success rates for people treated for TB,
ber of people living with HIV who developed TB in 2021             2012–2020a
(a best estimate of 703 000) and the reported number                                         100
diagnosed with TB in 2021 (368 641).
                                                                Treatment success rate (%)
 plus extensively drug-resistant TB (XDR-TB) and pre-                                     Globally in 2021, 71% of people (2.4/3.4 million) diag-
 XDR-TB. Pre-XDR-TB is TB that is resistant to rifampicin                             nosed with bacteriologically confirmed pulmonary TB
 and any fluoroquinolone (a class of second-line anti-TB                              were tested for rifampicin resistance, the same level of
 drug), whereas XDR-TB is TB that is resistant to rifampic-                           coverage as in 2020 (2.1/3.0  million) and up from 61%
 in, plus any fluoroquinolone, plus at least one of the                               (2.2/3.6  million) in 2019. Among those tested, 141 953
 drugs bedaquiline and linezolid.                                                     cases of MDR/RR-TB and 25  038 cases of pre-XDR-TB
    Detection of drug resistance requires bacteriological                             or XDR-TB were detected, giving a combined total of
 confirmation of TB and testing for drug resistance using                             166 991. This was an increase (6.4%) from the combined
 rapid molecular tests, culture methods or sequenc-                                   total of 156 982 in 2020, but less than the 9.7% increase
 ing technologies. Treatment requires a course of sec-                                in the overall number of people diagnosed and reported
 ond-line drugs. Novel all-oral regimens for MDR/RR-TB                                with TB between 2020 and 2021. It was also still consid-
 and pre-XDR-TB can now reduce treatment duration                                     erably lower (by 17%) than the total of 201 997 in 2019.
 to only 6 months, compared with older regimens last-                                     Worldwide, 161 746 people with MDR/RR-TB were
 ing 20 months or more. WHO recommends expanded                                       enrolled on treatment in 2021, up 7.5% from 150 469 in
 access to all-oral regimens, supported by counselling                                2020 but still considerably lower (by 11%) than the total
 and monitoring for adverse events (21).                                              of 181 533 in 2019 (Fig. 28, Fig. 29). This level of enrol-
  FIG. 28                                                                             FIG. 29
  Global number of people diagnosed with                                              The global number of people reported to have
  MDR/RR-TB (blue) and number enrolled on                                             been enrolled on treatment for MDR/RR-TB,
  an MDR/RR-TB treatment regimen (red),                                               2015–2021a
  compared with estimates of the global
                                                                                                 200
  number of incident cases of MDR/RR-TB
  (green), 2015–2021
                                                                                                 150
  The shaded area represents the 95% uncertainty
  interval.
                                                                                     Thousands
100
                  600 000
                                                                                                  50
Number per year
                  400 000                                                                          0
                                                                                                       2015       2016       2017     2018      2019      2020       2021
                                                                                                              All ages
                  200 000
                                                                                                              Adults aged ≥15 years or age not reported
                                                                                                              Children aged 0–14 years
                       0                                                              a	
                                                                                             Global data disaggregated by age are not available for the years before
                            2015   2016    2017    2018   2019    2020      2021             2018.
                                                                       3	
                                                                              The drug regimens currently recommended by WHO are
                                                                              explained in Annex 1.
1	
     2012 is the first year for which WHO collected data on outcomes   4	
                                                                              Addressing broader determinants that influence TB epidemics
     for people enrolled on treatment for MDR/RR-TB.                          can also help to prevent TB infection and disease. These are
2	
     See Annex 3.                                                             discussed below.
                        Target:
                                          12.5million                   Target:
                                                                                           10.3million
                                          (42%)                                            (>100%)
                       30 million                                      6 million
                       2018–2022          treated in                  2018–2022            treated in
                                          2018–2021                                        2018–2021
                         Target:
                                          1.6million                   Target:
                                                                                           0.60million
                                          (40%)                                            (3.0%)
                        4 million                                     20 million
                       2018–2022          treated in                  2018–2022            treated in
                                          2018–2021                                        2018–2021
of schedule (Fig.  31). Seven countries – India, Nigeria,      rifapentine-containing regimens, up from 25  657 in 37
South Africa, Uganda, the United Republic of Tanzania,         countries in 2020.
Zambia and Zimbabwe – collectively accounted for 82%              The ratio of the TB notification rate among health
of those started on treatment in 2021. In 20 countries         care workers to the TB notification rate in the general
that reported outcomes, the median completion rate             adult population reflects the effectiveness of TB infec-
for those who started treatment in 2020 was 87%, up            tion control in health facilities. The ratio should be
from 84% in 2019.                                              about 1, but in 2021 it was greater than 1 in 14 countries
   The number of household contacts of people diag-            that reported five or more TB cases among health care
nosed with TB who were provided with TB preventive             workers.
treatment remained low in 2021 (Fig. 30), at 0.7 million.         There were concerning declines in the global cover-
However, this was an improvement from 0.5 million in           age of BCG vaccination in 2020 and 2021. This fell from
2020 and was also above the level of 0.6 million in 2019.      88% in 2019 to 84% in 2021, probably due to disruptions
The cumulative number of contacts initiated on TB pre-         to health services caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.
ventive treatment in the 4-year period 2018–2021, at
2.2 million, is only 9.2% of the 5-year target of 24 million   Funding for essential TB services
for the period 2018–2022; this number included 1.6 mil-        Spending down since 2019, far below target
lion children aged under 5  years (40% of the 5-year           Progress in reducing the burden of TB disease requires
subtarget of 4  million) and 0.6  million people in older      adequate funding for TB diagnostic, treatment and
age groups (3.0% of the 5-year subtarget of 20 million)        prevention services, sustained over many years. How-
(Fig.  31). In 76 countries that reported outcomes, the        ever, funding in LMICs that account for 98% of report-
median completion rate for those who started treat-            ed TB cases falls far short of what is needed, and it fell
ment in 2020 was 86%, the same as in 2019.                     between 2019 and 2021.1
   A substantial intensification and expansion of efforts         In 2021, estimated spending on TB diagnostic, treat-
and investment is needed to improve the provision of           ment and prevention services in LMICs was US$ 5.4 bil-
TB preventive treatment. This includes providing more          lion (Fig.  32).2 This was slightly less than the total of
TB screening at household level (especially among peo-         US$ 5.5 billion in 2020 and down 10% from US$ 6.0 bil-
ple aged ≥5  years), strengthening the follow-up to TB
screening at household level and among people living           1	
                                                                    All amounts quoted in this subsection are in constant 2021 US$.
with HIV, and increasing access to shorter (1–3 months)        2	
                                                                    These amounts include spending reported to WHO by national
rifamycin-based regimens. Treatment using these                     TB programmes (NTPs) and estimates (produced by the WHO
                                                                    Global TB Programme) of the resources used to provide inpatient
shorter regimens is expanding: in 2021, 185 350 people              and outpatient care to the reported number of people newly
in 52 countries were reported to have been treated with             diagnosed with TB (Fig. 1).
3 2
                                2
                                                                                                                              1
                                1
                                0                                                                                             0
                                     2010     2012      2014     2016      2018     2020                                           2010     2012         2014   2016     2018      2020
                               0.4
                                                                                                                             0.8
0.2 0.4
                                0                                                                                             0
                                     2010     2012      2014     2016      2018     2020                                           2010     2012         2014   2016     2018      2020
  (24). Through their adoption of the SDGs, all countries                                        the monitoring of Indicator 3.8.2 by WHO and the World
  have committed to achieving UHC by 2030: Target 3.8                                            Bank, direct medical expenditures that account for 10%
  is “Achieve universal health coverage, including finan-                                        or more of household expenditure or income are classi-
  cial risk protection, access to quality essential health-                                      fied as “catastrophic” (24–26).
  care services and access to safe, effective, quality and                                          The latest published data for the two UHC indicators
  affordable essential medicines and vaccines for all” (7).                                      are for 2019 (SCI) and 2017 (catastrophic expenditures
  The two indicators to monitor progress towards this                                            on health care) (25, 26). Globally, the SCI was 67 (out of
  target are a UHC service coverage index (SCI) (Indica-                                         100) in 2019, up from 45 in 2000. The proportion of the
  tor 3.8.1), and the percentage of the population experi-                                       general population facing catastrophic expenditures on
  encing household expenditures on health care that are                                          health care (using a threshold of >10% annual house-
  “large” in relation to household expenditures or income                                        hold income or expenditure) rose from 9.4% in 2000 to
  (Indicator 3.8.2).1 The SCI can take values from 0 (worst)                                     13% (996 million people) in 2017.
  to 100 (best) and is calculated using 16 tracer indica-                                           Values for both indicators in the 30 high TB burden
  tors, one of which is the coverage of TB treatment. In                                         and three global TB watchlist countries show that there
                                                                                                 is a long way to go before the SDG targets for UHC are
  1	
                         Indicator 3.8.2 is a measure of financial hardship rather than          achieved in most of those countries (Fig.  34). Among
                         financial barriers to accessing health care. The existence of out-      high TB burden countries, Thailand stands out as hav-
                         of-pocket payments may deter many people from seeking care.
                                                                                          40
                                                                                                Central   Democratic
                                                                                                African Republic of the
                                                                                               Republic     Congo
                                                                                          20
                                                                                                                                   Sierra Leone     Uganda
                                                                                                                       Liberia     Mozambique                              Zimbabwe
                                                                                                                   Ethiopia                       United Republic of Tanzania
                                                                                           0
                                                                                                            30                     40                     50                     60                     70                80
Lower-middle-income
                                                                                          40
                                                                                                                          Angola
                                                                                                                                                                     Myanmar
                                                                                                                                     Bangladesh
                                                                                          20
                                                                                                                                  Nigeria                                   India     Cambodia
                                                                                                                                      Lesotho   Philippines Kenya
                                                                                                                                                                                          Mongolia     Viet Nam
                                                                                                                            Pakistan          Zambia                    Indonesia
                                                                                           0
                                                                                                            30                     40                     50                     60                     70                80
                                                                                               Upper-middle-income
40
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          China
                                                                                          20
                                                                                                                                                                                      South                  Brazil
                                                                                                                                                                                      Africa     Russian Federation
                                                                                                                                                      Gabon            Namibia                                           Thailand
                                                                                           0
                                                                                                            30                     40                     50                     60                     70                80
                                                                                                                                                        UHC service coverage index (SDG 3.8.1)
        a	
           The SCI can take values from 0 (worst) to 100 (best) and is calculated using 16 tracer indicators, one of which is the coverage of TB treatment. Values shown
           for the SCI are estimates for the latest year for which data for SDG 3.8.2 are available.
        b	
           Defined as ≥10% of total household consumption or income. The latest available year ranges from 2007 to 2019 for the 30 high TB burden countries.
        c	
           The three global TB watchlist countries are Cambodia, Russian Federation and Zimbabwe. Data were not available for Congo, Democratic People’s
           Republic of Korea and Papua New Guinea.
        d	
           The classification is for the latest year for which data for SDG 3.8.2 are available.
        Source: Global Health Observatory (https://www.who.int/data/gho).
        ing a high SCI (80) and a low level of catastrophic health                                                                                              indirect costs such as income losses) above 20% of
        expenditures (2% of households). A Universal Coverage                                                                                                   household income. The key differences between this
        Scheme (UCS) was established in 2002 to provide an                                                                                                      indicator and the SDG indicator for catastrophic health
        explicit benefit to all citizens of Thailand not already                                                                                                expenditures (Indicator 3.8.2) are explained in Box 5.
        covered by a health insurance scheme in the formal                                                                                                         Since 2015, a total of 29 countries have completed
        sector, supported by domestic funding and a strong pri-                                                                                                 a national survey of costs faced by TB patients and
        mary health care system (27). Although data post-2019                                                                                                   their households, of which 27 (including 16 of the 30
        are not yet available, the COVID-19 pandemic is likely to                                                                                               high TB burden countries and one of the three glob-
        have caused progress towards UHC to stall or reverse in                                                                                                 al TB watchlist countries)1 have reported results. The
        2020 and 2021 in many countries.                                                                                                                        percentage facing catastrophic costs ranged from 13%
           Given the importance of UHC to targets for reduc-                                                                                                    (95% confidence interval [CI]: 10–17%) in El Salvador to
        tions in TB incidence and mortality, the End TB Strategy                                                                                                92% (95%  CI: 86–97%) in Solomon Islands; the pooled
        included a third target, which was that no TB patients                                                                                                  average, weighted for each country’s number of notified
        and their households face total costs that are cata-                                                                                                    cases, was 48% (95%  CI: 36–61%) (Fig.  35). Among 23
        strophic (8). The definition of catastrophic used for this                                                                                              countries that reported disaggregated data, the per-
        TB-specific indicator is total costs (comprising direct                                                                                                 centage facing catastrophic total costs was much high-
        medical expenditures, nonmedical expenditures and
                                                                                                                                                                1	
                                                                                                                                                                     See Annex 3.
      It is important to distinguish between the indicator of           that they needed. Hence, the SDG indicator cannot
      “the proportion of the population with large household            be used as a measure of financial barriers to access to
      expenditures on health as a share of total household              health care.
      expenditure or income”, which is used within the SDG
                                                                        Due to the nature of the illness, TB patients and their
      monitoring framework (SDG Indicator 3.8.2), and the
                                                                        households can face severe direct and indirect financial
      indicator of “the percentage of TB patients and their
                                                                        and economic costs. These pose barriers that can greatly
      households facing catastrophic costs due to TB”, which is
                                                                        affect their ability to access diagnosis and treatment, and
      part of the WHO End TB Strategy.
                                                                        to complete treatment successfully. Costs included in
      The SDG indicator is for the general population.                  the TB-specific indicator include not only direct medical
      Household expenditures on health are defined as direct            payments for diagnosis and treatment, but also direct
      expenditures on health by all household members who               nonmedical payments (e.g. transportation and lodging)
      seek any type of care (preventive, curative, rehabilitative,      and indirect costs (e.g. lost income). In contrast to SDG
      long-term) for any type of disease, illness or health             Indicator 3.8.2, the TB-specific indicator is restricted to a
      condition, in any type of setting (outpatient, inpatient,         particular population: people diagnosed with TB who are
      at home). They include both formal and informal                   users of health services that are part of NTP networks.
      expenditures. The indicator attempts to capture
                                                                        Given these conceptual differences, the percentage of
      the impact of household expenditures on health on
                                                                        TB patients facing “catastrophic total costs” (defined as
      household ability to spend on other basic needs. The
                                                                        costs that account for >20% of their household income)
      denominator of the total population includes many
                                                                        is expected to be much higher than the percentage of the
      people who had no contact with the health system and
                                                                        general population facing catastrophic expenditures on
      thus had zero expenditures on health. Although these
                                                                        health care. Hence, the two indicators cannot and should
      people did not experience financial hardship because of
                                                                        not be compared directly.
      direct expenditures on health care, they may nonetheless
      have faced financial barriers to accessing health services
er for people with DR-TB, with a pooled average of 82%                  enables national assessments of the status of the main
(95% CI: 75–90%).                                                       elements of the MAF-TB (30).
   Survey results are being used to inform approaches                      Results from implementation of the checklist show
to health financing, service delivery and social protec-                that progress is being made in adaptation and imple-
tion that will reduce these costs.1                                     mentation of the MAF-TB. However, engagement of
   Many new cases of TB are attributable to five risk                   all relevant sectors (including civil society) requires
factors: undernourishment, HIV infection, alcohol use                   strengthening, as do mechanisms for high-level review.
disorders, smoking (especially among men) and diabe-                    Given the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, full imple-
tes (Fig. 36). In the context of the COVID-19 pandemic as               mentation of all components of the MAF-TB could help to
well as war in Ukraine, ongoing conflicts in other parts                ensure the recovery of essential TB services, enhanced
of the world, a global energy crisis and associated risks               social protection and faster progress towards global TB
to food security, multisectoral action to address these                 targets.3 In line with the global part of the MAF-TB, WHO
and other determinants of TB, such as GDP per capita                    will continue to lead the coordination of global moni-
(Fig. 20) and poverty, is more important than ever.2                    toring, reporting and review, and to provide technical
   Addressing broader determinants of the TB epidemic                   support and guidance to countries and partners.
requires multisectoral accountability. The political dec-
laration at the UN high-level meeting on TB requested                   TB research and innovation
the WHO Director-General to develop a multisectoral                     Slow progress, much more investment needed
accountability framework for TB (MAF-TB) and ensure                     The End TB Strategy targets set for 2030 and 2035
its timely implementation. Following extensive devel-                   (Box 2) cannot be met without intensified research and
opment work, WHO finalized the framework and pub-                       innovation. When these targets were first established,
lished it in 2019 (29). To support Member States to adapt               it was highlighted that technological breakthroughs
and use it, WHO has also developed a checklist that                     would be needed by 2025, so that the annual decline
1	
     Comprehensive documentation of the results and policy              in the global TB incidence rate could be accelerated to
     implications of the 21 surveys completed between 2015 and 2021
     is available in a separate WHO publication (28).                   3	
                                                                             For more analysis of the latest status of progress in adapting and
2	
     SDG targets and indicators that are associated with TB incidence        using the MAF-TB, see one of the “featured topics” on the report
     are described in Annex 6.                                               webpages.
                                             0       25      50     75     100                                                  0      25      50      75   100
                                                          Percentage                                                                        Percentage
NA – not available.
a	
   Defined as direct medical expenditures, direct nonmedical expenditures and indirect costs (e.g. income losses) that sum to >20% of household income.
   This indicator is not the same as the SDG indicator for catastrophic health expenditures; see Box 5 for further explanation.
b	
   Estimates for drug-resistant TB specifically were only available for 23 countries. The calculation of confidence intervals for Mali and Uganda did not
   account for sampling design.
c	
   Since a 95% confidence interval was not included in the national survey report, a simple binomial confidence interval was calculated based on the survey
   sample size.
Fig. 36
Global estimates of the number of incident TB cases attributable to selected risk factors, 2021a
Undernourishment
HIV infection
Smoking
Diabetes
a	
     Sources of data used to produce estimates were: Imtiaz S et al. Eur Resp Jour (2017); Hayashi S et al. Trop Med Int Health (2018); Lönnroth K et al.
     Lancet (2010); World Bank Sustainable Development Goals Database (http://datatopics.worldbank.org/sdgs/); WHO Global Health Observatory
     (https://www.who.int/data/gho); and WHO Global TB Programme.
                         1.5
                                                                                           Zhifei Longcom Biopharmaceutical Co. Ltd, China) and
                                                                                           Diaskintest (JSC Generium, the Russian Federation).
                         1.0
                                                                                           WHO plans to evaluate the following tests in the com-
                                                                                           ing year: culture-free, targeted-sequencing solutions
                         0.5                                                               to test for drug resistance directly from sputum speci-
                                                                                           mens; broth microdilution methods for drug suscepti-
                          0                                                                bility testing; and new IGRAs to test for TB infection.
                               2015      2016      2017      2018      2019       2020
                                                                                              In September 2022, there were 26 drugs for the
  Source: Treatment Action Group, Stop TB Partnership. Tuberculosis                        treatment of TB disease in Phase I, Phase II or Phase III
  research funding trends 2005–2020. New York: Treatment Action Group;                     trials. These drugs comprise 17 new chemical entities,
  2021 (https://www.treatmentactiongroup.org/resources/tbrd-report/tbrd-
  report-2021/)                                                                            two drugs that have received accelerated regulatory
                                                                                           approval, one drug that was recently approved by the
                                                                                           United States (US) Food and Drug Administration under
                                                                                           the limited population pathway for antibacterial and
  an average of 17% per year between 2025 and 2035 (9).                                    antifungal drugs, and six repurposed drugs. Various
  Reductions in TB incidence achieved between 2015 and                                     combination regimens with new or repurposed drugs,
  2021 fell far short of the first 2020 milestone of the strat-                            as well as host-directed therapies, are in Phase II or
  egy (10% compared with 20%); coupled with the impact                                     Phase III trials.
  of the COVID-19 pandemic on TB incidence in 2020 and                                        In September 2022, at least 22 clinical trials to evalu-
  2021 (Fig.  10, Fig.  11), this means that an even faster                                ate drugs and drug regimens for treatment of TB infec-
  rate of decline will now be required to reach the targets.                               tion were being implemented. Examples included trials
  Priorities include a vaccine to lower the risk of infection,                             for the prevention of DR-TB among high-risk household
  a vaccine or new drug treatment to cut the risk of TB                                    contacts of TB patients with MDR-TB and trials to assess
  disease in people already infected, rapid diagnostics                                    how to optimize the administration of short-course TB
  for accurate detection of TB disease at the point of care,                               preventive treatment for very young children and peo-
  and simpler, shorter treatments for TB disease.                                          ple living with HIV.
     There is progress in the development of new TB                                           In September 2022, there were 16 vaccine candidates
  diagnostics, drugs and vaccines.1 However, this is con-                                  in clinical trials: four in Phase I, eight in Phase II and four
  strained by the overall level of investment. The most                                    in Phase III. They included candidates to prevent TB
  recently published data show a total of US$ 0.9 billion                                  infection and TB disease, and to help improve the out-
  in 2020 (31), less than half the global target of US$ 2 bil-                             comes of treatment for TB disease.
  lion per year that was set for the period 2018–2022 at                                      Effective vaccines are critical to achieve annual glob-
  the first UN high-level meeting on TB (Fig. 37). The total                               al and national reductions in TB incidence and mortali-
  falls even further short of the estimated requirement in                                 ty that are much faster than those achieved historically.
  the Stop TB Partnership’s Global Plan to End TB, 2023–                                   WHO has commissioned a full-value assessment of new
  2030 (32), which is US$ 5 billion per year.                                              TB vaccines to guide investments in late-stage research
     In recent years, the diagnostic pipeline has expanded                                 as well as the subsequent introduction and implementa-
  considerably in terms of the number of tests, products                                   tion of any that are licensed for use. Preliminary results
  or methods in development. These include molecular                                       suggest that vaccine products which meet the preferred
  tests for the detection of TB disease and drug resist-                                   product characteristics of new TB vaccines would have
  ance, interferon-gamma release assays (IGRAs) for the                                    substantive and positive health and economic impacts.
  detection of TB infection, biomarker-based assays for                                    This initiative as well as other recent or current efforts
  detection of TB disease, computer-aided detection                                        by WHO to support TB research and innovation are sum-
  (CAD) for TB screening using digital chest radiography,                                  marized in Box 6.
  and a new class of aerosol-capture technologies for
  1	
                    A high-level summary of the status of the pipelines for new TB
                    diagnostics, drugs and vaccines is provided in this subsection.
                    The report webpages (Section 7) provide more details, including
                    graphics showing the products in each pipeline and links to
                    websites that provide information about the clinical trials that are
                    underway.
4. Conclusions
All Member States of the UN and WHO have committed              death worldwide from a single infectious agent, replac-
to “ending the global TB epidemic” by 2030, with con-           ing COVID-19.
crete milestones and targets included in the WHO End               Intensified efforts backed by increased funding for
TB Strategy (adopted in 2014) and the political decla-          essential TB services as well as research are urgently
ration that was the key outcome of the first-ever UN            required to mitigate and reverse the negative impacts
high-level meeting on TB in 2018.                               of the COVID-19 pandemic on TB. The top priority is to
   This report shows that the COVID-19 pandemic has             restore access to and provision of essential TB services,
had a damaging impact on access to TB diagnosis and             so that levels of TB case detection and treatment can
treatment and the burden of TB disease. Progress made           recover to at least 2019 levels.
in the years up to 2019 has slowed, stalled or reversed,           The need for action has become even more pressing
and global TB targets are off track.                            in the context of war in Ukraine, ongoing conflicts in
   The most obvious impact has been a substantial               other parts of the world, a global energy crisis and asso-
reduction (compared with 2019) in the reported num-             ciated risks to food security. These are likely to further
ber of people newly diagnosed with TB in both 2020 and          worsen some of the broader determinants of TB, such
2021, suggesting an increase in the number of people            as levels of income and undernourishment.
with undiagnosed and untreated TB. The most severe                 The comprehensive review by heads of state and gov-
consequence has been an estimated increase in the               ernment of the status of the TB epidemic and progress
number of people dying from TB. In 2021, the estimated          in response efforts at a UN high-level meeting in 2023
number of deaths caused by TB was more than double              provides an opportunity for renewed global commit-
the number caused by HIV/AIDS. In the near future, it is        ments and actions towards the goal of ending TB.
possible that TB will once again be the leading cause of
1.	    Houben RM, Dodd PJ. The global burden of latent tuberculosis infection: a re-estimation using mathematical modelling.
       PLoS Med. 2016;13(10):e1002152. doi: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1002152.
2.	    Emery JC, Richards AS, Dale KD, McQuaid CF, White RG, Denholm JT et al. Self-clearance of Mycobacterium tuberculosis
       infection: implications for lifetime risk and population at-risk of tuberculosis disease. Proceedings of the Royal Society B.
       2021;288(1943):20201635. doi: https://doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2020.1635.
3.	    Behr MA, Edelstein PH, Ramakrishnan L. Is Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection life long? BMJ. 2019;367:l5770. doi:
       https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.l5770.
4.	    Tiemersma EW, van der Werf MJ, Borgdorff MW, Williams BG, Nagelkerke NJ. Natural history of tuberculosis: duration and
       fatality of untreated pulmonary tuberculosis in HIV negative patients: a systematic review. PLOS One. 2011;6(4):e17601.
       doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0017601.
5.	    Provisional tuberculosis (TB) notifications [website]. Geneva: World Health Organization; 2022
       (https://worldhealthorg.shinyapps.io/tb_pronto/).
6.	    Tuberculosis data [website]. Geneva: World Health Organization; 2022 (https://www.who.int/tb/data/en/).
7.	    Sustainable Development Goals [website]. New York: United Nations; 2022 (https://sustainabledevelopment.un.org/
       topics/sustainabledevelopmentgoals).
8.	    Global strategy and targets for tuberculosis prevention, care and control after 2015 (Resoultion WHA67.1, Agenda item
       12.1). Geneva: World Health Assembly; 2014 (http://apps.who.int/gb/ebwha/pdf_files/WHA67/A67_R1-en.pdf).
9.	    Floyd K, Glaziou P, Houben R, Sumner T, White RG, Raviglione M. Global tuberculosis targets and milestones set for
       2016–2035: definition and rationale. Int J Tuberc Lung Dis. 2018;22(7):723–30. doi: 10.5588/ijtld.17.0835.
10.	   Moscow Declaration to End TB; First WHO global ministerial conference on ending TB in the sustainable development
       era: a multisectoral response. Geneva: World Health Organization and the Ministry of Health of the Russian Federation;
       2017 (https://www.who.int/publications/i/item/WHO-HTM-TB-2017.11).
11.	   Resolution 73/3: Political declaration of the high-level meeting of the General Assembly on the fight against tuberculosis.
       New York: United Nations General Assembly; 2018 (https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/political-declaration-of-
       the-un-general-assembly-high-level-meeting-on-the-fight-against-tuberculosis).
12.	   Report of the Secretary-General. Progress towards the achievement of global tuberculosis targets and implementation
       of the political declaration of the high-level meeting of the General Assembly on the fight against tuberculosis. 75th
       session. Item 132 of the provisional agenda. New York: United Nations General Assembly; 2020
       (https://undocs.org/en/A/75/236).
13.	   AIDS info [website]. Geneva: UNAIDS; 2022 (https://aidsinfo.unaids.org/).
14.	   Coronavirus (COVID-19) dashboard [website]. Geneva: World Health Organization; 2022 (https://covid19.who.int/).
15.	   Global tuberculosis report 2021. Geneva: World Health Organization; 2021 (https://www.who.int/publications/i/
       item/9789240037021).
16.	   Report of a subgroup meeting of the WHO Task Force on TB Impact Measurement: methods used by WHO to estimate TB
       disease burden. Geneva: World Health Organization; 2022 (https://apps.who.int/iris/handle/10665/363428).
17.	   Menzies NA, Wolf E, Connors D, Bellerose M, Sbarra AN, Cohen T et al. Progression from latent infection to active disease
       in dynamic tuberculosis transmission models: a systematic review of the validity of modelling assumptions. Lancet
       Infect Dis. 2018;18(8):e228–e38. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/S1473-3099(18)30134-8.
18.	   Strategic and Technical Advisory Group for Tuberculosis (?STAG-TB)?: report of the 21st meeting, 21–23 June 2021.
       Geneva: World Health Organization; 2021 (https://apps.who.int/iris/handle/10665/351132).
19.	   WHO consolidated guidelines on tuberculosis. Module 3: Diagnosis – rapid diagnostics for tuberculosis detection 2021
       update. Geneva: World Health Organization; 2021 (https://www.who.int/publications/i/item/9789240029415).
20.	   Global HIV & AIDS statistics – fact sheet [website]. Geneva: Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS); 2021
       (https://www.unaids.org/en/resources/fact-sheet).
21.	   WHO consolidated guidelines on tuberculosis. Module 4: Treatment – drug-resistant tuberculosis treatment. Geneva:
       World Health Organization; 2020 (https://www.who.int/publications/i/item/9789240007048).
Tuberculosis (TB) is an old disease. Studies of human        ble TB (both pulmonary and extrapulmonary): all four
skeletons show that it has affected humans for thou-         drugs for the first two months, followed by H and R for
sands of years (1). Its cause remained unknown until 24      the remaining 4 months. They also include new recom-
March 1882, when Dr Robert Koch announced his dis-           mendations that people aged 12 years and older with
covery of the bacillus responsible, subsequently named       drug-susceptible pulmonary TB may be treated with a
Mycobacterium tuberculosis (2). The disease is spread        4-month regimen of rifapentine (P), H, Z and moxiflox-
when people who are sick with TB expel bacteria into         acin (M), and that children and adolescents between
the air (e.g. by coughing). TB typically affects the lungs   3 months and 16 years of age with non-severe TB (and
(pulmonary TB) but can also affect other sites (extrapul-    without suspicion or evidence of resistance to R and
monary TB). Most people who develop the disease              H) may be treated with a 4-month regimen (2 months
(about 90%) are adults and there are more cases among        of H, R, Z and sometimes also E, followed by 2 months
men than women.                                              of H and R). Treatment success rates of at least 85% for
   Diagnostic tests for TB disease have improved sub-        people enrolled on the 6-month regimen are regularly
stantially in recent years. There are now several rapid      reported to WHO by its 194 Member States.
molecular tests that are recommended by WHO as the              Treatment for people diagnosed with R-resistant TB
initial diagnostic test for TB, some of which can detect     (RR-TB) and multidrug-resistant TB (MDR-TB, defined
drug resistance simultaneously (3). These tests can be       as resistance to H and R) is more difficult and requires
used at the lower levels of the health system. There are     drugs that cause more side-effects (6). Nationally, treat-
also rapid molecular tests specifically for the detection    ment success rates for RR-TB are typically in the range
of resistance to several first- and second-line anti-TB      of 50–75%; the global average has been improving in
drugs, and sequencing technologies that can provide          recent years, reaching 60% in the most recent patient
a comprehensive individual profile of drug resistance.       cohort for which data are available. Treatment for
The older method of sputum smear microscopy (devel-          pre-extensively drug-resistant TB (pre-XDR-TB, defined
oped >100 years ago) is still widely used for TB diagnosis   as TB that is resistant to R and any fluoroquinolone) and
in low and middle-income countries but is increasingly       XDR-TB (resistance to R, any fluoroquinolone and at
being replaced with rapid tests. Culture testing remains     least one of bedaquiline or linezolid) is even more diffi-
the reference standard for TB diagnosis. Following diag-     cult and treatment success rates are typically low.
nosis, smear or culture (as opposed to rapid molecular          A global modelling study published in 2016 estimated
tests) are necessary to monitor an individual’s response     that about a quarter of the world’s population had been
to treatment. In addition, culture is required for the       infected with M.  tuberculosis (7). Recent analyses and
detection of resistance to newer anti-TB drugs and may       commentary suggest that the number of those current-
also be used as a confirmatory test in settings and situ-    ly infected is lower, given that some people will clear
ations in which people have a low pre-test probability of    the infection (8, 9). An older modelling study published
having TB disease.                                           in 2000 estimated that about 5–10% of people infected
   Without treatment, the mortality rate from TB is          with TB will go on to develop TB disease at some point
high. Studies of the natural history of TB disease in the    during their lifetime (10). The probability of developing
absence of treatment with anti-TB drugs (conducted           TB disease is much higher among people living with
before drug treatments became available) found that          HIV, and among people affected by risk factors such
about 70% of individuals with sputum smear-positive          as undernutrition, diabetes, smoking and alcohol con-
pulmonary TB died within 10 years of being diagnosed,        sumption.
as did about 20% of people with culture-positive (but           Preventive treatment is available for people with
smear-negative) pulmonary TB (4).                            TB infection. Recommended options include: a weekly
   Effective drug treatments were first developed in         dose of H and P for 3 months (3HP), a daily dose of H and
the 1940s. The latest WHO guidelines published in 2022       R for 3 months (3HR), a daily dose of H and P for 1 month
(5) include a strong recommendation for a 6-month            (1HP), a daily dose of R for 4  months (4R), and a daily
regimen of isoniazid (H), rifampicin (R), ethambutol (E)     dose of H for 6 months (6H) or longer.
and pyrazinamide (Z) for people with drug-suscepti-             The only licensed vaccine for prevention of TB dis-
References
1.	    Hershkovitz I, Donoghue HD, Minnikin DE, May H, Lee OY, Feldman M, et al. Tuberculosis origin: the Neolithic scenario.
       Tuberculosis. 2015;95 Suppl 1:S122–6 (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25726364, accessed 15 August 2022).
2.	    Sakula A. Robert Koch: centenary of the discovery of the tubercle bacillus, 1882. Thorax. 1982;37(4):246–51
       (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/6180494, accessed 15 August 2022).
3.	    WHO consolidated guidelines on tuberculosis. Module 3: Diagnosis – rapid diagnostics for tuberculosis detection 2021
       update. Geneva: World Health Organization; 2021 (https://www.who.int/publications/i/item/9789240029415).
4.	    Tiemersma EW, van der Werf MJ, Borgdorff MW, Williams BG, Nagelkerke NJ. Natural history of tuberculosis: duration and
       fatality of untreated pulmonary tuberculosis in HIV negative patients: a systematic review. PLoS One. 2011;6(4):e17601
       (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/21483732, accessed 15 August 2022).
5.	    WHO consolidated guidelines on tuberculosis, Module 4. Treatment – drug-susceptible tuberculosis treatment. Geneva:
       World Health Organization; 2022 (https://www.who.int/publications/i/item/9789240048126)
6.	    WHO consolidated guidelines on tuberculosis, Module 4: Treatment – drug-resistant tuberculosis treatment. Geneva:
       World Health Organization; 2020 (https://www.who.int/publications/i/item/9789240007048).
7.	    Houben RMGJ, Dodd PJ. The Global Burden of Latent Tuberculosis Infection: A Re-estimation Using Mathematical
       Modelling. PloS Medicine 2016 (https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pmed.1002152, accessed 15 August 2022).
8.	    Emery JC, Richards AS, Dale KD, McQuaid FC, White RG, Denholm JT and Houben RMGJ. Self-clearance of Mycobacterium
       tuberculosis infection: implications for lifetime risk and population at-risk of tuberculosis disease. Proceedings of the
       Royal Society B 2021 (https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/full/10.1098/rspb.2020.1635, accessed 15 August 2022).
9.	    Behr MA, Edelstein PH, Ramakrishnan L. Is Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection life long? BMJ 2019;367:l5770
       (https://www.bmj.com/content/367/bmj.l5770, accessed 15 August 2022).
10.	   Vynnycky E, Fine PE. Lifetime risks, incubation period, and serial interval of tuberculosis. American journal of
       epidemiology. 2000;152(3):247–63.
11.	   Tait DR, Hatherill M, Van Der Meeren O, Ginsberg AM, Van Brakel E, Salaun B et al. Final analysis of a trial of M72/AS01E
       vaccine to prevent tuberculosis. N Eng J Med. 2019;381(25):2429–39 (https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/31661198/,
       accessed 15 August 2022).
SDG indicator Display name in profile Data source Name at source Source URL
1.1.1           Population living below the        UN SDG        Proportion of population below      https://unstats.un.org/SDGAPI/v1/sdg/
                international poverty line (% of   database      the international poverty line of   Series/Data?seriesCode=SI_POV_DAY1
                population)                                      US$1.90 per day
1.3.1           Population covered by social       World Bank    Coverage of social protection       http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/
                protection floors/systems (% of                  and labor programs (% of            per_allsp.cov_pop_tot
                population)                                      population)
2.1.1           Prevalence of undernourishment     World Bank    Prevalence of                       http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/
                (% of population)                                undernourishment (% of              SN.ITK.DEFC.ZS
                                                                 population)
3.3.1           HIV prevalence (% of population    WHO-GHO       Prevalence of HIV among adults      https://ghoapi.azureedge.net/api/
(alternative)   aged 15-49 years)                                aged 15 to 49 (%)                   MDG_0000000029
3.4.1           Diabetes prevalence (% of          WHO-GHO       Raised fasting blood glucose        https://ghoapi.azureedge.net/api/NCD_
(alternative)   population aged ≥ 18 years)                      (≥7.0 mmol/L or on medication)      GLUC_04
                                                                 (age-standardized estimate)
3.5.2           Alcohol use disorders, 12 month    WHO-GHO       Alcohol use disorders (15+), 12     https://ghoapi.azureedge.net/api/
(alternative)   prevalence (% of population                      month prevalence (%) with 95%       SA_0000001462
                aged ≥ 15 years)
3.a.1           Smoking prevalence (% of           WHO-GHO       Estimate of current tobacco         https://ghoapi.azureedge.net/api/M_Est_
(alternative)   population aged ≥ 15 years)                      smoking prevalence (%) (age-        smk_curr_std
                                                                 standardized rate)
3.8.1           UHC index of essential service     WHO-GHO       UHC index of essential service      https://ghoapi.azureedge.net/api/UHC_
                coverage (based on 14 tracer                     coverage                            INDEX_REPORTED
                indicators including TB
                treatment)
3.8.2           Greater than 10% of total          WHO-GHO       Catastrophic out-of-pocket          https://ghoapi.azureedge.net/api/
                household expenditure                            health spending (SDG indicator      FINPROTECTION_CATA_TOT_10_POP
                or income on health (% of                        3.8.2)
                population)
3.8.2           Health expenditure per capita,     WHO-GHO       Current health expenditure          https://ghoapi.azureedge.net/api/GHED_
(alternative)   PPP (current international $)                    (CHE) per capita in PPP int $       CHE_pc_PPP_SHA2011
7.1.2           Access to clean fuels and          World Bank    Access to clean fuels and           http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/
                technologies for cooking (% of                   technologies for cooking (% of      EG.CFT.ACCS.ZS
                population)                                      population)
8.1.1           GDP per capita, PPP (constant      World Bank    GDP per capita, PPP (constant       http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/
(alternative)   2011 international $)                            2011 international $)               NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.KD
10.1.1          GINI index (0=perfect equality,    World Bank    GINI index (World Bank              http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/
(alternative)   100=perfect inequality)                          estimate)                           SI.POV.GINI
11.1.1          Population living in slums (% of   UN SDG        Proportion of urban population      https://unstats.un.org/SDGAPI/v1/sdg/
                urban population)                  database      living in slums (%)                 Series/Data?seriesCode=EN_LND_SLUM
   The CSV data files are the primary resource for any-                A2.3	 Accessing TB data using the WHO Global
one interested in conducting their own analyses of the                       Health Observatory
records in the global TB database. Data reported by                    The WHO Global Health Observatory (GHO)1 is a portal
countries (e.g. time series for case notifications and                 that provides access to data and analyses for monitor-
treatment outcomes), and WHO’s estimates of TB dis-                    ing the global health situation; it includes a data repos-
ease burden), can be downloaded as CSV files covering                  itory.
all years for which data are available. These CSV files                    Data from WHO’s global TB database can be viewed,
can be imported into many applications (e.g. spread-                   filtered, aggregated and downloaded from within the
sheets, databases and statistical analysis software).                  GHO data repository.2
   A data dictionary that defines each of the variables                    There is also an application programme interface
available in the CSV files is also available and can be                (API)3 using the open data protocol. The API allows ana-
downloaded.                                                            lysts and programmers to use GHO data directly in their
   The CSV files are generated on-demand directly                      software applications.
from the global TB database, and may therefore include
updates received after publication of the global TB
report.
                                                                       1	
                                                                            https://www.who.int/data/gho
                                                                       2	
                                                                            https://www.who.int/data/gho/data/themes/tuberculosis
                                                                       3	
                                                                            https://www.who.int/data/gho/info/gho-odata-api
Fig. A3.1
The three global lists of high-burden countries for TB, HIV-associated TB and MDR/RR-TB to be
used by WHO in the period 2021–2025, and their areas of overlap
                                  Brazil
                        Central African Republic            China
                                 Congo               Democratic Republic              Angola
                                Ethiopia                of the Congo                Bangladesh
                                 Gabon                      India               Democratic People’s
                                 Kenya                   Indonesia               Republic of Korea
                                Lesotho                 Mozambique                   Mongolia
                                 Liberia                  Myanmar                    Pakistan
                                Namibia                    Nigeria               Papua New Guinea
                                Thailand                 Philippines                 Viet Nam
                                                                                                              MDR/RR-TB
                                Uganda                  South Africa
                       United Republic of Tanzania         Zambia
TB/HIV
                                                                                     Azerbaijan
                                                                                      Belarus
                              Botswana                                              Kazakhstan
                              Cameroon                                                 Nepal
                               Eswatini                                                 Peru
                                Guinea                                           Republic of Moldova
                            Guinea-Bissau               Sierra Leone             Russian Federation
                                Malawi                                                Somalia
                          Russian Federation                                         Tajikistan
                              Zimbabwe                                                Ukraine
                                                                                    Uzbekistan
                                                                                     Zimbabwe
TB
References
1.	   World Health Organization. Use of high burden country
      lists for TB by WHO in the post-2015 era (discussion
      paper). Geneva: World Health Organization; 2015
      (https://www.who.int/tb/publications/global_report/
      high_tb_burdencountrylists2016-2020.pdf).
2.	   World Health Organization. WHO global lists of high
      burden countries for tuberculosis (TB), TB/HIV and
      multidrug/rifampicin-resistant TB (MDR/RR-TB),
      2021–2025: background document. Geneva. World
      Health Organization; 2021 (https://apps.who.int/iris/
      handle/10665/341980).
Country, regional and global profiles as well as data for          A4.2	 Online country profiles and other
all key indicators for all countries and areas are avail-                reports
able in the WHO TB Report mobile app and on the TB                 TB data profiles are available online for all 215 countries
Data web page.1                                                    and areas that report TB data to WHO each year, as are
                                                                   aggregate profiles for WHO regions and globally.1 The
A4.1	 The WHO TB Report mobile app                                 profiles are available in English, French, Spanish and
The free WHO TB Report mobile app includes country,                Russian. They are generated on-demand directly from
regional and global profiles from the global TB data-              the global TB database (Annex 2) and may therefore
base, as well as a summary of the key facts and messag-            include updates received after publication of the global
es from the report and an overview of progress towards             TB report. Estimates of TB cases attributable to five risk
global TB targets. The app allows users to easily view,            factors and indicators in the Sustainable Development
query and visualize data, and to define queries, includ-           Goals (SDGs) that are associated with TB incidence are
ing those for specific country groups. Once installed,             available for all 215 countries and territories. TB finan-
the app works offline so that data can be accessed with-           cial profiles are available for more than 100 countries
out an ongoing internet connection. The app is availa-             and territories that report detailed TB financial data to
ble for Android devices through Google Play and for iOS            WHO.
devices, such as iPhones and iPads, through the Apple
Store.2,3 It is available in English, French, Spanish and
Russian.
1	
     https://www.who.int/teams/global-tuberculosis-programme/
     data
2	
     https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=uk.co.adappt.
     whotbreport
3	
     https://apps.apple.com/us/app/tb-report/id1483112411
The report includes estimates of tuberculosis (TB) inci-               3.	 Updated estimates of TB incidence in India for
dence and mortality for the period 2000–2021; esti-                        the period 2000–2019. This update was based on
mates of TB incidence and mortality disaggregated by                       the availability of new survey and programmatic
age and sex for 2021; and estimates of the incidence                       data but remains interim in nature.
of rifampicin-resistant TB (RR-TB) for the period 2015–
                                                                       4.	 Production of time series of estimates of the inci-
2021. This annex summarizes the main updates to the
                                                                           dence of RR-TB. Previous global TB reports from
methods used to produce these estimates, compared
                                                                           the World Health Organization (WHO) included esti-
with those used for the Global tuberculosis report 2021
                                                                           mates for the latest calendar year only. New meth-
(1, 2). Details are provided in a technical appendix.
                                                                           ods were developed in 2022 to allow the production
    There were four major updates for this report:
                                                                           of time series of estimates for the period 2015–2021.
1.	 Expanded use of country-specific dynamic mod-                          The time series are for the absolute number of inci-
    els to estimate TB incidence and mortality in                          dent RR-TB cases and the proportions of TB cases
    2020 and 2021. Models were used for 27 countries,                      (new and previously treated) that have RR-TB.
    up from 16 the previous year. Countries for which
                                                                       Estimates of TB incidence and mortality in all high-
    models were used were those with large absolute
                                                                       income countries in 2020 and 2021 were produced
    reductions in the reported number of people newly
                                                                       using the same methods as those used pre-2020; that
    diagnosed with TB in 2020 or 2021 (case notifica-
                                                                       is, notification data with a standard adjustment for inci-
    tions) relative to pre-2020 trends; these reductions
                                                                       dence, and vital registration (VR) data for mortality.2 For
    were interpreted as being due to reduced detection
                                                                       low- and middle-income countries (LMIC) that were not
    of people with TB, in turn resulting in an increase
                                                                       modelled (i.e. those for which case notifications in 2020
    in the number of people with undiagnosed and
                                                                       and 2021 did not show a substantial reduction relative
    untreated TB in the community. Models were
                                                                       to pre-2020 trends), the methods used to estimate TB
    needed to produce estimates of TB incidence and
                                                                       incidence and mortality before 2020 were retained for
    mortality that accounted for these disruptions to
                                                                       use in 2020 and 2021, with the assumption that pre-2020
    TB diagnosis and treatment, in the absence of any
                                                                       trends continued in 2020 and 2021.
    direct measurements of TB disease burden in these
    years.1
                                                                       Country-specific and region-specific dynamic
2.	 Use of region-specific dynamic models to esti-                     models
    mate TB incidence and mortality in 2020 and                        The models were developed through a collaboration
    2021. Although individual countries may have                       between WHO and Imperial College, London (United
    reported large relative reductions in case notifica-               Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland) (1–3).
    tions, in absolute terms these reductions may not                     Key assumptions used in the models are:
    have been sufficient to warrant their inclusion in
    the country-specific modelling described above.                    "" Reductions in TB case notifications reflect reduced
    Instead, region-specific models were used for any                     case detection. It is possible that underreporting of
    such countries that reported a cumulative reduc-                      detected cases may contribute to reductions in case
    tion in TB case notifications of 10% or more in 2020                  notifications, but there is currently no evidence to
    to 2021 inclusive, relative to pre-2020 trends. A total               support this.
    of 26 countries met this criterion. This method was                "" Strict lockdowns resulted in a 50% reduction in trans-
    used in place of the statistical model used in 2021                   mission (with an uncertainty interval of 25–75%).
    (2).                                                                  Reductions in transmission outside periods of strict
                                                                          lockdown were not assumed, although measures
                                                                          such as mask wearing may have had an ongoing
1	
     For two of the modelled countries, China and the Russian             effect on transmission in some countries.
     Federation, national vital registration (VR) data on the number
     of deaths caused by TB were reported to the World Health
     Organization (WHO) in the period 2020–2021. These data were       2	
                                                                            If VR data for 2020 and 2021 were not available, it was assumed
     used in preference to modelled estimates.                              that pre-2020 trends were sustained.
References
1.	   Global tuberculosis report 2021. Geneva: World Health Organization; 2021 (https://www.who.int/publications/i/
      item/9789240037021).
2.	   Methods used by WHO to estimate the global burden of TB disease. Geneva: World Health Organization; 2021
      (https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/methods-used-by-who-to-estimate-the-global-burden-of-tb-disease).
3.	   Report of a subgroup meeting of the WHO Task Force on TB Impact Measurement: methods used by WHO to estimate TB
      disease burden. Geneva: World Health Organization; 2022 (https://apps.who.int/iris/handle/10665/363428).
4.	   Menzies NA, Wolf E, Connors D, Bellerose M, Sbarra AN, Cohen T et al. Progression from latent infection to active disease
      in dynamic tuberculosis transmission models: a systematic review of the validity of modelling assumptions. Lancet
      Infect Dis. 2018;18(8):e228–e38. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/S1473-3099(18)30134-8.
5.	   Strategic and Technical Advisory Group for Tuberculosis (STAG-TB): report of the 21st meeting, 21–23 June 2021. Geneva:
      World Health Organization; 2021 (https://apps.who.int/iris/handle/10665/351132).
6.	   Methods for estimating the incidence of drug-resistant TB (background document 2). Subgroup meeting of the WHO
      Task Force on TB Impact Measurement: methods used by WHO to estimate TB disease burden. Geneva: World Health
      Organization; 2022 (https://cdn.who.int/media/docs/default-source/hq-tuberculosis/global-task-force-on-tb-impact-
      measurement/meetings/2022-05/tf-2022-05-2-background--document-2--dr-tb.pdf?sfvrsn=a8757cfa_3).
In 2017, the World Health Organization (WHO) developed             "" prevalence of undernourishment;
a framework for monitoring of indicators in the United             "" proportion of the population with primary reliance
Nations (UN) Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)                     on clean fuels and technology;
that are strongly associated with tuberculosis (TB) inci-          "" gross domestic product (GDP) per capita;
dence. This was done as part of the preparations for the           "" Gini index for income inequality; and
first global ministerial conference on TB (1), building on         "" proportion of the urban population living in slums.
previously published work that identified clear linkages
                                                                   Collection and reporting of data for the 14 indicators
between a range of social, economic and health-related
                                                                   does not require any additional data collection and
indicators and TB incidence (2–5).
                                                                   reporting efforts by national TB programmes (NTPs).
   The TB-SDG monitoring framework comprises 14
                                                                   Nor does it require data collection and reporting efforts
indicators under seven SDGs (Table A6.1).
                                                                   that go beyond those to which countries have already
   For SDG 3, the framework includes seven indicators:
                                                                   committed in the context of the SDGs. At the global
"" coverage of essential health services;                          level, the UN has established a monitoring system for
"" proportion of the population with large household               SDG indicators, and countries are expected to report
   expenditures on health as a share of total household            data on an annual basis via the appropriate UN agen-
   expenditure or income;                                          cies (including WHO). Therefore, analysis of the status
"" current health expenditure per capita;                          of, and trends in, the 14 indicators related to TB can be
"" HIV prevalence;                                                 based primarily on data held in the UN’s SDG database.
"" prevalence of smoking;                                             In some cases, the official SDG indicator was not
"" prevalence of diabetes; and                                     considered the best metric, and a better (but closely
"" prevalence of alcohol use disorder.                             related) alternative was identified and justified (five
                                                                   indicators under SDG 3, one under SDG 8 and one under
For SDGs 1, 2, 7, 8, 10 and 11, the seven indicators select-
                                                                   SDG 10). In such cases, the data sources are one of the
ed for monitoring are:
                                                                   following: WHO, the Organisation for Economic Co-op-
"" proportion of the population living below the inter-            eration and Development (OECD), the Joint United
   national poverty line;                                          Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) or the World
"" proportion of the population covered by social pro-             Bank.
   tection floors or systems;
References
1.	   Monitoring and evaluation of TB in the context of the Sustainable Development Goals in Policy Briefs: WHO Global
      Ministerial Conference Ending TB in the Sustainable Development Era: Multisectoral Response. Geneva: World Health
      Organization; 2017. (https://www.who.int/conferences/tb-global-ministerial-conference/Ministerial_Conference_policy_
      briefs.pdf)
2.	   Lienhardt C, Glaziou P, Uplekar M, Lönnroth K, Getahun H, Raviglione M. Global tuberculosis control: lessons learnt and
      future prospects. Nat Rev Microbiol. 2012;10(6):407 (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22580364,).
3.	   Lönnroth K, Castro KG, Chakaya JM, Chauhan LS, Floyd K, Glaziou P et al. Tuberculosis control and elimination 2010–50:
      cure, care, and social development. Lancet. 2010;375(9728):1814–29 (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/20488524).
4.	   Lönnroth K, Jaramillo E, Williams B, Dye C, Raviglione M. Tuberculosis: the role of risk factors and social determinants.
      In: Blas E & Kurup A (eds.), Equity, social determinants and public health programmes. 2010 (https://apps.who.
      int/iris/bitstream/handle/10665/44289/9789241563970_eng.pdf;jsessionid=067BC8BA3F7A5366C05BE34404
      F9D8F6?sequence=1).
5.	   Lönnroth K, Jaramillo E, Williams BG, Dye C, Raviglione M. Drivers of tuberculosis epidemics: the role of risk factors and
      social determinants. Soc Sci Med. 2009;68(12):2240–6 (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/19394122).
 SDG 3: Ensure healthy lives and promote well-being for all at all ages
                                                             Alternative                                                          Collect data
                                                                                                                         Data
 SDG targets for 2030          SDG indicators                indicators to          Rationale                                     for TB patients
                                                                                                                         source
                                                             monitor                                                              specifically?
 3.3 End the epidemics         3.3.1  Number of new          HIV prevalence         HIV is a strong risk factor for      UNAIDS   Yes, already
 of AIDS, TB, malaria          HIV infections per 1000                              development of TB disease            WHO      routinely collected.
 and neglected tropical        uninfected population                                and is associated with poorer                 NA
 diseases and combat           3.3.2  TB incidence per                              treatment outcomes. HIV
 hepatitis, water-borne        100  000 population                                  prevalence is selected in
 diseases and other                                                                 preference to HIV incidence
 communicable diseases                                                              because it is directly measured.
AIDS, acquired immune deficiency syndrome; HIV, human immunodeficiency virus; NA, not applicable; SDG, Sustainable Development Goal; TB, tuberculosis;
UHC, universal health coverage; UNAIDS, Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS; WHO, World Health Organization
 1.1  Eradicate extreme       1.1.1 Proportion          NA                      Poverty is a strong risk factor for     UN SDG      No
 poverty for all people       of population living                              TB, operating through several           database,   Could be considered
 everywhere, currently        below the international   NA                      pathways. Reducing poverty              World       (e.g. to facilitate
 measured as people           poverty line                                      should also facilitate prompt           Bank        access to social
 living on less than $1.25    1.3.1 Proportion of                               health-care seeking. Countries                      protection).
 a day                        population covered                                with higher levels of social
 1.3  Implement               by social protection                              protection have lower TB burden.
 nationally appropriate       floors/systems                                    Progress on both indicators
 social protection                                                              will help to achieve the End TB
 systems and measures                                                           Strategy target to eliminate
 for all, including floors,                                                     catastrophic costs for TB patients
 and achieve substantial                                                        and their households.
 coverage of the poor and
 vulnerable
 SDG 2: End hunger, achieve food security and improved nutrition and promote sustainable agriculture
 2.1  End hunger and          2.1.1 Prevalence of       NA                      Undernutrition weakens the              UN SDG      Could be considered
 ensure access by all         undernourishment                                  body’s defence against infections       database    (e.g. to plan food
 people, in particular                                                          and is a strong risk factor for TB                  support).
 the poor and people in                                                         at the national and individual
 vulnerable situations,                                                         level.
 including infants, to
 safe, nutritious and
 sufficient food year-
 round
 SDG 7: Ensure access to affordable, reliable, sustainable, and modern energy for all
 7.1 Ensure universal         7.1.2 Proportion          NA                      Indoor air pollution is a risk factor   WHO         No
 access to affordable,        of population with                                for TB disease at the individual
 reliable and modern          primary reliance                                  level. There has been limited
 energy services              on clean fuels and                                study of ambient air pollution but
                              technology                                        it is plausible that it is linked to
                                                                                TB incidence.
 SDG 8: Promote sustained, inclusive and sustainable economic growth, full and productive employment and
 decent work for all
 8.1 Sustain per capita       8.1.1 Annual growth       GDP per capita          Historic trends in TB incidence         World       No
 growth in accordance         rate of real GDP per                              are closely correlated with             Bank
 with national                capita                                            changes in the absolute level of
 circumstances and, in                                                          GDP per capita (but not with the
 particular, at least 7%                                                        growth rate).
 GDP growth per year
 in the least developed
 countries
 SDG 11: Make cities and human settlements inclusive, safe, resilient and sustainable
 11.1 Ensure access for       11.1.1 Proportion         NA                      Living in a slum is a risk factor for   UN SDG      No
 all to adequate, safe        of urban population                               TB transmission due to its link         database
 and affordable housing       living in slums,                                  with overcrowding. It is also a risk
 and basic services and       informal settlements or                           factor for developing TB disease,
 upgrade slums                inadequate housing                                due to links with air pollution and
                                                                                undernutrition.
GDP, gross domestic product; NA, not applicable; OECD, Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development; SDG, Sustainable Development Goal; TB,
tuberculosis; UN, United Nations; WHO, World Health Organization.