CE 455

Urban Transport Planning

3–0-0
by
Dr. Saladi S.V. Subbarao
 Urban Transportation Planning
• Why only some parts of city is developing with
pace, but others are not?

• How governments decide about design and

operation of various transportation facilities?

• How to design a survey questionnaire and what are

the various transportation surveys?

• How governments prepare for future development?

 Foreword
• Transportation planning is an integral part of Urban
planning
 Foreword
• Transportation planning is an integral part of Urban
planning

• Travel demand estimation is an important part of

comprehensive transportation planning process, but not
limited to…

• The objective of Urban transport planning is:

– To generate alternatives for improving transportation
system to meet future demand
– Selecting the best alternative after proper evaluation
 Objectives of the course
• To understand how decisions to build transportation
facilities are made
• To understand basic elements of transportation
planning process
• To evaluate transport planning alternates

Expected outcome
• Study the urban transportation planning process
• Study the travel demand models
 Traffic and Transportation problems in
urban areas
• Lack of mobility and accessibility
• Traffic Congestion problems
• Disconnected transportation modes operating in urban
areas
• Traffic safety (involving crashes, injuries and fatalities)

• Solution ?
Planning
 Urban transportation planning
• It is the process that leads to decisions on transportation
policies and programs

• Objective
– To provide the information necessary for making
decisions on when and where improvements should be
made in the transportation system, thus promoting
travel and land development patterns that are in
keeping with community goals and objectives
 UNIT I Urban transport planning
• Introduction and Scope
• Transportation in the Cities - Transportation problems
• Conventional transport planning process
• Sustainable urban transportation planning process
• Transport surveys – home interview, post card survey -
commercial vehicle, IPT survey, registration no. survey
• Definition of study area and traffic zones – types and
methods
• Types of transit system – public, private, MRTS, BRTS and
Metro – Comparison
UNIT II Trip generation
 UNIT II Trip generation

• Travel demand modelling

• Factors governing
– Trip production and
– Trip attraction rates
• Multiple linear regression analysis
• Category analysis
• Critical appraisal of techniques
 UNIT III Trip Distribution methods

• Presentation of trip distribution data

• PA matrix to OD matrix
• Growth factor methods of trip distribution - Fratar,
Furness methods
• Gravity model of trip distribution and its calibration
• Opportunity model – Intervening and competing
 UNIT IV Modal split and route assignment

• Factors influencing mode choice

• Two stage modal split models – trip end, trip interchange
type
• Discrete choice models – binary choice, multinomial logit
• Route assignment – transport network – route choice
behavior – minimum or shortest path algorithm
• Assignment techniques – All or nothing assignment,
capacity restraint, multipath assignment
Modal split analysis
 UNIT V Land-use, activity based models,
urban goods movement

• Land use transport models: Lowry model - historical and

recent developments
• Activity based travel demand models
• GIS applications in transport planning
• Introduction to computer packages used in transport
planning
• Classification of urban goods movement
 References
• Principles of Urban Transportation System Planning by
Hutchinson, B.G.

• Modelling Transport by Ortuzar, J.D. and and Willumsen,

L.G.

• Traffic Engineering and Transport planning by L.R. Kadiyali

• An Introduction to Transportation Planning by Bruton, M. J.

• Transportation Engineering by C.J. Khisty and B. Kent Lall

 Scheme of evaluation

Minor -1 20 %
Minor -2 20 %
Assignments / Quizzes / 20 %
Term Project/ Attendance
Term End 40 %
Total 100
 References
• Urban Transportation: Planning, Operation and
Management by D.J. Victor and S. Ponnuswamy
• Principles of Urban Transportation System Planning
by Hutchinson, B.G.
• Modelling Transport by Ortuzar, J.D. and and
Willumsen, L.G.
• Traffic Engineering and Transport planning by L.R.
Kadiyali
• An Introduction to Transportation Planning by Bruton,
M. J.
 Transportation system
Development
Modes of the system Components of modes
of components

Highways
Planning
Railways
The way Evaluation
Waterways
The vehicles Design
Airways
The terminal Construction
Ropeways
The control Operation
Conveyors
Maintenance
Pipelines
Urban Transportation System
Urban Passenger Transportation System
Urban Goods Transportation System
Urban Public Transportation System
Urban Para-transit Transportation System
Urban Personal Transportation System
 Urban transport systems
• Urban transportation system – all vehicles
• Urban passenger transportation system
• Urban goods transportation system
• Urban public transit system (bus and rail)
• Urban para-transit or intermediate public
transport system
• Urban personal transport system
Classification of urban streets

• Urban Expressways / Freeways

• Arterial streets
• Sub Arterial streets
• Collector streets
• Local streets
 Urban Expressway

• Expressway is a divided highway facility having two or

more lanes in each direction for the exclusive use of
traffic, with full control of access and egress.

• In the highway hierarchy, Expressway is the only

facility that provides complete uninterrupted flow.
 Urban Expressway

• An Expressway is composed of three subcomponents:

Basic freeway segment, weaving areas, and ramp
junctions.

• An expressway with the above character located in an

urban area is an urban expressway.

• Example: Hyderabad ORR and Bandra-Worli Sea Link

Urban expressway
 Arterials streets
• A major surface street with relatively long trips
between major points, and with through-trips
entering, leaving, and passing through the urban area.

• Example: Eastern Express Highway, Western Express

Highway
Arterials
Arterial street
 Sub-arterial streets

• A signalized street that primarily serves through-

traffic

• It secondarily provides access to abutting

properties, with signal spacing of 3.0 km or less.
Sub-arterial street
 Collector streets
• A surface street providing land access and traffic
circulation within residential, commercial, and
industrial areas.

• The function of collector street is to collect traffic

from local streets and feed it to the arterial and sub-
arterial streets or vice-versa
Collector street
 Local streets

• These streets provide access to the abutting

properties.

• Unrestricted parking and pedestrian movement is

allowed on these streets
Local street
 Traffic and Transportation problems
in urban areas
• Lack of mobility and accessibility
• Traffic Congestion problems
• Disconnected transportation modes operating in urban
areas
• Traffic safety (involving crashes, injuries and fatalities)

• Solution ?
 Mobility and accessibility
• Mobility refers to the ability to move between different
activity sites
– If a facility could move people and goods very fast then
that facility provides very high mobility

• Accessibility refers to the number of activity sites connected

by the facility
– If a facility provides connection to large number of
residences, commercial places and industrial places then
it provides very high accessibility

• Mobility and accessibility are inversely related.

 Mobility and accessibility
Urban Expressways

Arterials

Sub arterials
Mobility

Collectors

Locals

Access
 Transportation Problems and
Externalities

• Congestion
• Related delay,
• Related unreliability,
• Crowding inside public transport vehicles
 Car Ownership in Cities Worldwide
800 North
American
700 New Zealnad/
Australia
Cars per 1000 Population

600
Western Europe
500 and Japan
400
Taiwan
300

200 Developing
Asian Countries
Less Singapore
100 Developed
Asian
Countries Hong Kong
0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
GDP Per Capita US $ 000s per Annum
Production vs Sale of Automobiles in India
Total number of registered motor vehicles in India (in million)
 Transportation Problems and
Externalities
• Environmental Problems
• Global warming,
• Local air pollution,
• Noise,
• Reduction of green space,
• Damage to environmentally sensitive sites,
• Visual intrusion
CO2 Emissions from Passenger Transport

City
 Peak Hour Passenger Loads on Western
Corridor
Legend:

60 km
0 km

4725 passengers per 12 car train

394 passengers per car
10 passengers per m2
Super Dense Crush Load
Super Dense Crush Load
 Transportation Problems and
Externalities Contd.
• Accidents
o Number, severity and risk

• Social Problems
o Community severance, Lack of amenity, Poor
accessibility for those without a car and those with
mobility impairments, Disproportionate/disadvantaging
of particular social or geographic groups

• Economic Problems
o Suppression of the potential for economic activity in the
area
Road Accident Fatalities (Per 100,000 population)

In India,
17.4 %
Road Accident Fatalities
 Modal Share in Mumbai
60%
50%
50%

40%
Percent Trips

30%
23%
20%

9% 8%
10% 7%
3%
0%

Mode
Modal Shares in Typical Cities
 Effects of Improper Urbanisation and
Motorisation

Average Income Higher Modal Shift

Increment Car-Ownership to Car

ECONOMY
Excess Car Bottleneck
Lack of Public
Demand for
Transport
Economic Development
Growth Higher Cost
Lack of
of Infrastructure Congestion
Road CO,NOX,PM,,; CO2
Supply
Emission
Higher Energy Rate
Consumption
Sprawl of
Urbanization Built-up Area Longer Trips ENVIRONMENT
Local/Global
Problems
Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University
Car and Public Transport Vicious Circle

Increase in
Income
Increase in
Car ownership
Car becomes
even more
attractive Reduced More
demand for congestion
Reduced bus buses and delay
frequency

Increase in
fares Less mileage
Increase in bus per bus
operating cost
Breaking Car-Public Transport Vicious Circle

Increase in
Income
Increase in
3 Car ownership
Car becomes
even more
attractive Reduced More
demand for congestion
Reduced bus buses and delay
frequency 2
1 Bus
Increase in priority
fares Less mileage
per bus
Increase in bus
operating cost
 National Transport Policy of India
• Integrating land use and transport
• Use of Cleaner Technologies
planning
• Parking
• Sustainable Urban Mobility
• Pricing
Plans
• Park and ride facilities
• Transit Oriented Development
• Capacity Building
• Equitable Allocation of Road
• Public Private Partnership
Space
• Innovative Financing
• Public Transportation and NMT
Mechanisms using land as a
• Priority and use of PT
resource
• Appropriate Technology
• Betterment levy on land
• Last mile connectivity
owners
• Pricing
• Commercial exploitation
• Financing
of land
• Role of Para Transit
• Priority to NMT
 Smart Cities Project
• Smart City
• Focuses on sustainable and inclusive development
• Compact and having core infrastructure with a decent
quality of life to its citizens

• Transport Sector
• Creating walkable localities with mixed land use
• Transport Infrastructure that provides efficient urban
mobility and public transport
• Transit Oriented Development (TOD), public transport
and last mile para-transit connectivity
• Integrated multimodal transport

• Smart Solutions
 Traffic and Transportation problems
in urban areas
• Traffic Congestion problems
• Lack of mobility and accessibility
• Disconnected transportation modes operating in urban
areas
• Traffic safety (involving crashes, injuries and fatalities)

• Solution ?
Planning
 Planning
• Planning is done by human beings for human beings

• Future oriented and optimistic

• City and regional planning involves the arrangement of

spatial patterns over time
– Spatial arrangement is not planning, it is the object
of a process

• Planners prepare plans for the future to guide the city

or community to control and govern a course of action
 Planning
• The process of working out, beforehand, a scheme,
program, or method for the accomplishment of an
objective

• Planning in transport infrastructure development

– Any infrastructure developed in transportation has to
meet the demand for transportation for long periods
– Should have a general idea about the facilities
– Need to do comprehensive transport planning
 Transportation
• Purpose of transportation is to provide efficient
access to various activities that satisfy human needs

• The general goal of transportation planning is to

accommodate this need for mobility
– Whose mobility?
– What purpose?
– What means?
– At what cost and to whom?
 Transport planning - Scope
• It is a science that seeks to study the problems that
arise in providing transportation facilities in an urban,
regional or national setting and to prepare a
systematic basis for planning such facilities

• To understand the nature of problems and formulate

proposals for the safe and efficient movement of goods
and people from one place to another is the subject of
transport planning
 Transport planning
• To understand the mobility patterns in urban areas

• To understand the factors that influence the level of

mobility in urban areas

• To develop the relationship between the level of mobility

and causal factors

• By using these relationships, to predict future mobility

pattern in urban areas

• Use the predicted mobility patterns to understand the

future requirements of transportation infrastructure to
meet the future demand.
 Fundamental assumption

• Travel patterns are stable and predictable. We should

have confidence in the accuracy of prediction of the
future condition of urban area

• In a typical study, the most probable pattern of land

development is predicted for the horizon year (usually 20
years) and the transport demands created by that land use
are estimated
 Other assumptions
• Decisive relationships exist between all modes of transport

• Transportation system influences the development of an

area

• Areas of continuous urbanization require a region-wide

consideration of the urban situation

• Transportation study is an integral part of the planning

process

• Transportation planning process is continuous and requires

constant updating, validating and amendment
 Urban transportation planning
• UTP is an activity that has been going on for centuries,
shaping the cities and the ways that community lives.

• Partly science and partly art

• Transport planning studies are conducted during past 50

years but still evolving……

• Planning process that is most commonly used at present

had its origins from US cities (Detroit and Chicago) during
1950 – 1960 period
Urban Transportation Planning Process
PRE ANALYSIS PHASE
• Problem/Issue Identification
• Formulation of Goals and Objectives
• Data Collection
• Generation of Alternatives

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS PHASE

• Land Use –Activity System Model
• UTMS
• Impact Prediction Models

POST ANALYSIS PHASE

• Evaluation of Alternatives
• Decision Making
• Implementation
• Monitoring
 Pre-analysis Phase
• Define problem broadly
– Examples
• Maximise public transport accessibility
• Achieve reasonable level of service on roads

• Identify broad objectives

– Examples
• Public transport area coverage >95%
• Congestion inside transit vehicles < 5 standees/m2
• LoS of Arterial Road network ≥ D
Level of Service
 Generation of Alternatives
• Generate alternatives by judgment
• Narrow them down to manageable number by DELPHI
technique
• “No Action Alternative” needs to be considered for
comparative evaluation
• Generate enough number of
– transit investment schemes
– road network investment schemes
– land use options
Mumbai
PROJECTS IN YEAR: 2011

Passenger Water Transport

JVLR

Metro – Phase I: Andheri –

Ghatkopar - Versova SC Link
Road

Bandra – Worli Sea Link Sewri – Worli

Fast Corridor

MTHL
Western Freeway Sea Link Eastern
Freeway
Mumbai
PROJECTS IN YEAR: 2021

Passenger Water Transport JVLR

Metro Phase II:Colaba – Mahim -
Charkop / Mankhurd
Metro – Phase I: Andheri – SC Link
Ghatkopar - Versova Road

Sewri – Worli
Bandra – Worli Sea Link
Fast Corridor
MTHL
MTHL-RAIL
Western Freeway Sea Link
Eastern
Freeway
Mumbai
Metro – Phase II:
PROJECTS IN YEAR: 2031 Ghatkopar –
Mulund & Charkop
- Dahisar

Passenger Water Transport JVLR

Metro – Phase I: Andheri –

Ghatkopar - Versova SC Link
Metro Phase II:Colaba – Mahim - Road
Charkop / Mankhurd
Bandra – Worli Sea Link Sewri – Worli
Fast Corridor

MTHL/RAI
Western Freeway Sea Link L
Eastern
Freeway
Mumbai
Metro – Phase II:
Metro –Ghatkopar
Phase II: –
PROJECTS IN YEAR: 2041 Mulund & –Charkop
Ghatkopar
Mulund &-Charkop
Metro Dahisar
- Dahisar
Phase III
Passenger Water JVLR
Transport
Metro – Phase I: Andheri –
Ghatkopar - Versova SC Link
Metro Phase II:Colaba – Mahim - Road
Charkop / Mankhurd
Sewri – Worli
Bandra – Worli Sea Link
Fast Corridor

MTHL/RAI
Western Freeway Sea Link L
Eastern
Freeway
 Data Collection
• Data gathering and data cleaning is part of an ongoing
process

• Household travel survey need to be performed every

decade, coordinated with the national census

• Usual traffic surveys such as cordon line and screen line

counts and O-D surveys need to be performed more
frequently

• Panel surveys on the same household can be used to model

household and firm location behaviour
 Data Collection
• Survey of employment is needed to supplement national
economic census

• Demographic data need to be collected from census.

• Land use data need to be collected from development plan

sheets supplemented with satellite imagery

• Survey firms to determine goods movement by commodity

type
 Technical Analysis Phase
• Activity Forecasts
– Population and employment forecasts are taken from the
planning body
– Other important variables in travel models like
household income and size need to be forecast
– Allocate the households and employment to the traffic
analysis zones (TAZ’s)
– A land use model would be more appropriate in
allocating the future activities to zones
 Technical Analysis Phase

• Car ownership model

• UTMS
– Trip generation; Trip distribution; Modal split;
Assignment/ route choice

• Impact Prediction Models

– Travel impacts; Air pollution impacts; Noise pollution
impacts; Ecological impacts; Social impacts
Urban Transportation Model System
INPUTS
•TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM CHARACTERISTICS
•LAND USE – ACTIVITY SYTEM CHARACTERISTICS

URBAN TRANSPORTATION MODEL SYSTEM (UTMS)

TRIP GENERATION
(How many trips?)

TRIP DISTRIBUTION
(Where do they go?)

MODE CHOICE
(By what mode?)

TRAFFIC ASSIGNMENT
(By what route?)

OUTPUTS
TRAFFIC FLOWS ON NETWORK LINKS
•Quantity (Volume)
•Quality (Speed)
Travel Demand Estimation

1
3
 TRAVEL DEMAND ESTIMATION
TRIP PRODUCTION TRIP DISTRIBUTION
ZONE TRIP TO ZONE
1 47
1 2 3
2 66
1 10 18 19
3 110
FROM 2 30 32 4 MODE SPLIT
ZONE
ZONE TRIP 3 5 40 65
MODE I 15
1 45
2 90 MODE II 25
3 88 ROUTE A 5
ROUTE B 17
TRIP ATTRACTION
ROUTE C 3

TRIP ASSIGNMENT
 Plan Evaluation Criteria
• Measures of congestion
– LoS (A-F) on each network link
• Travel Delay
– Person hours
• Measures of pollution
– Number of tons of each pollutant produced per day
• Economic welfare (equity measure)
– Net benefit to travelers in terms of reduction in
generalized cost of travel
– Net benefits to travelers by income class
 Good Modeling Practice
• Time Representation
– Peak and off-peak periods

• Data Gathering
– Household travel survey every decade with tours
– Vehicle speed surveys
– Data for urban model

• Activity Forecasts
– GIS land use model or economic urban model
 Good Modeling Practice
• Car Ownership
– Discrete choice model, dependent on land use,
parking costs, and accessibility by mode
• Trip Generation
– Walk and bicycle modes
– More trip purposes
– Dependent on car ownership
– Three or more time periods
• Trip Distribution
– Full Model Equilibration
– Composite costs used (all modes, all costs)
– All-day trip tours represented
 Good Modeling Practice
• Mode Choice
– Discrete choice models
– Land use variables in transit, walk, and bike models
• Goods Movement
– Fixed trip tables
• Assignment
– Capacity-restrained
– Speeds calibrated
– Three or more time periods
 Urban Transportation Planning Process
Formulation of Goals Collection of data Inventory of
and Objectives from traffic survey existing facilities

Development of Travel forecast Land use forecast

alternative •Trip generation •Population
highway and PT •Trip distribution •Economic activity
networks •Future travel demand •Land use

Assignment of Evaluation of
movements to alternative networks Selection and
alternative Costs, benefits, Implementation
networks impacts, practicability
 Stages in UTPS
• Formulation of goals and objectives

• Collection of data (socioeconomic, land use and travel

pattern) for the present situation

• Establishment of relationships between present day

movements and land use, populations and economic factors

• Prediction of horizon year land use, populations and

economic factors and the development of land use plans

• Prediction of the origins, destinations and distribution of

future movement demands
 Stages in UTPS
• Prediction of person movements by different modes of travel at
the target date

• Development of alternative highway and public transport

networks to fit the predicted land use plan

• Assignment of predicted trips to alternative transport networks

• Evaluation of efficiency and economic viability of the alternative

transport networks in terms of economic and social costs and
benefits

• Selection and implementation of most appropriate transport

networks
 Limitations of conventional UTP
• The differential impact of various transport technologies on the
general quality of the urban environment

• The unequal impacts of transport investments on the access of

various socioeconomic groups to employment and education and
other community facilities

• The impact of changes in accessibility on the spatial distribution

of urban activities

• The uncertainty under which transport investments are made and

their sequential order

• The relationship of the financial resources required by

recommended plans to the resources required by other public
sectors
 Systems approach to transport planning
• Earlier, a series of transportation plans was produced based
on the assumption - travel pattern could be determined
based on the land-use pattern of a town or city

• City should be seen as a system and traffic and land use are
interdependent (Wingo and Perloff)

• It can be applied to assess the impact of transport proposals

on both the short tem and long term behaviour of firms and
individuals

• It allows implementation of transport proposals to be used

positively as a determinant of urban form
 Systems Approach to Transportation Planning
Socioeconomic
environment

Problem definition
• Objectives
• Constraints
• Inputs Implementation
• Outputs
• Value function
• Decision criteria
Recommended
strategy
Solution generation

Solution analysis Evaluation + Choice

 Transport system planner
• The role of a transport system planner is to design a
system that achieves maximum integration or “degree
of fit” between system and its environment

• Get a good fit between planned system and socio-

economic environment
 Systems - Engineering process
Socioeconomic
environment

Problem definition
• Objectives
• Constraints
• Inputs Implementation
• Outputs
• Value function
• Decision criteria
Recommended
strategy
Solution generation

Solution analysis Evaluation + Choice

 Problem definition
• The aim of problem definition step is to define the
interface between the system and its environment and to
identify a rule or criterion, which may be used by the
planner to identify the optimal system

• The pertinent features of a system problem definition are:

system objectives,
system constraints,
system inputs,
system outputs,
value functions and
decision criterion
 Goal, Objective and Standard
• Goal may be defined as the end to which a plan trends. In
this sense a goal may be conceived as an idea expressed in
abstract terms that is sought after continuously, and not an
end state that can be reached

• An objective may be conceived as a lower order goal which

at least conceptually, is capable of being measured

• A standard is of lower order again than an objective and

represents a condition that is capable of both
measurement and attainment
 Goal, Objective and Standard

• Protect environment – community goal in an urban

area. Identify suitable objective to pursue the goal and
derive a standard for the identified objective

• Objective - Encourage public transport

• Standard - The frequency of transit service on any

route to be not less than 3 per hour on a normal
working day
 Goal, Objective and Standard

• Goal: I want to become a rich person

• Objective?
• Standard?

• Goal: I would like to do social service

• Objective?
• Standard?
 Goal and objectives
• Goal: maximize the mobility of people and goods

• Related objectives
– Minimize travel time
– Minimize travel cost
– Provide adequate frequencies
– Provide adequate system capacity
– Provide adequate system safety
– Provide adequate system reliability
 Goals and objectives
• Related standards

– Travel time by public transport to all major centers

should not exceed 30 minutes

– Travel cost by public transport should not exceed

15% of the cost of travel by private transport

– The frequency of public transport service on any

route should not be less than 3 per hour

– Peak hour occupancy of public transport vehicles not

to exceed the permissible limits
• Constraints: the constraints on a system may be defined as
those characteristics of the environment that limit the
extent of feasible solutions

• Inputs to a system may be described as those

characteristics of the environment that a system must
transform into outputs in the light of the system objectives

• The outputs of a system may be defined as those

characteristics of a system that influence its environment
directly and that are a function of the system inputs and
the system properties
• Value function may be defined as a procedure or
analytical tool for mapping the magnitude of an out-
put variable into the units of value in which the
objectives are measured (maximize transport safety)
• Decision criterion may be defined as a rule that
instructs the systems planner how the individual
measures of value associated with the system outputs
and the financial resources required for the
construction and operation of the system should be
manipulated in order to arrive at a single index of
value for the system to identify the optimal system

• Select the alternative system with the difference

between the net present value of benefits and costs
 Questions ?
• What is the minimum level of service of transport
system desired by the urban community to improve
their quality of life in future?

• Increase in journey speed, frequency of service,

permissible occupancy limit

• What are the constraints in achieving desired level of

service of transport system in future?

• Financial and political constraints

 Questions?
• What are the factors which influence the future
demand for transportation in an urban area?
• Population growth, Decrease of household size,
Increase of household income, Increase of household
vehicle ownership, Increase of per capita trip rate

• What are the quality aspects of transport systems that

may influence the future demand?
• Speed of travel, Travel cost, Level of safety, Level of
comfort
 Questions?
• How to assess the quality of future transport systems?
• Estimate money value of the relevant system outputs
using appropriate functional forms

• How to choose the system that will provide better

quality of service?
• Use benefit cost analysis and stated preference
approach to choose the system
 Systems - Engineering process
Socioeconomic
environment

Problem definition
• Objectives
• Constraints
• Inputs Implementation
• Outputs
• Value function
• Decision criteria
Recommended
strategy
Solution generation

Solution analysis Evaluation + Choice

• Solution generation:
Aim is to generate array of solutions that satisfy the
previously established objectives to a greater or lesser
degree and which do not violate the constraints

• Solution analysis:
Objective of this step is to predict the probable
operating state of each of the alternative systems
generated in the previous phase, given expectations
about the state of the environment
 Solution analysis
• In urban transport planning, the input magnitudes and
the behavior of alternative systems are estimated
normally through the use of four phase process.

• The four phase process consists

– Trip generation analysis
– Trip distribution analysis
– Modal split analysis
– Traffic assignment analysis
• Evaluations and choice:
• Aim is to identify the alternative system that
satisfies the objectives to the greatest extent

• Implementation:
• The optimum system for the horizon year is
identified in the previous phase and the aim of this
phase is to formulate a strategy for implementing
the chosen system throughout the planning period
 Transportation surveys

• Need to collect data on all factors that are likely to

influence travel pattern

• The work involves number of surveys

– Inventory on existing travel pattern
– Inventory on existing transport facilities
– Inventory on existing land use and economic
activities
 Inventory of transport facilities
• To identify the deficiencies in the present system and the
extent to which they need to be improved.

• The inventory consists of:

– Inventory of streets forming the transport network
– Traffic volume, composition, peak and off-peak
– Studies on travel time by different modes
– Inventory of public transport buses and rail transport
facilities
– Parking inventory – on-street and off-street
– Accident data
 Inventory of land-use and
economic activities
• Inventory on land-use

– Travel characteristics are closely related to land-use

pattern, it is utmost important that accurate inventory
of land-use be prepared

– Data on intensity of usage of land for different

purposes, such as residential, commercial,
recreational, open space etc. in each of the traffic
zones are to be collected from concerned departments
/ organizations
 Inventory of land-use and
economic activities
• Inventory on Economic activities

Aggregate data on demographic and socioeconomic

activities should be collected other sources to include the
following:
– Population of the planning area and the various zones
– Age, gender and composition of the family
– Employment statistics
– Housing statistics
– Income
– Vehicle ownership
 Urban area
• A place satisfying the following criteria simultaneously
is termed as an urban area (Census of India, 2011)
– Population not less than 5000
– Non-agricultural workers not less than 75% of total
workers
– Population density not less than 400 per sq. km

Towns with population of 0.1 million and above are

terms as cities
Zones with centroids
 Study area
• The boundary of the study area is defined by a Cordon line
• Normally this will be the administrative boundary of the
Metropolitan Area
• It Consists of
– Traffic Analysis Zones
– Inner Cordon lines
– Outer Cordon lines
– Screen Lines
– Cordon Stations
– Screen Line Count Stations
 Study area
• Transportation planning can be at the national level, the
regional level or at the urban level
• For planning at the urban level, the study area should
embrace the whole contribution containing the existing and
potential continuously built up areas of the city
• The imaginary line representing the boundary of the study
area is termed as “external cordon line”
• the land use pattern and the economic activities are studied
intensively and the detailed surveys (home interview) are
conducted inside the external cordon line to determine the
travel characteristics
 Selection of external cordon line
• The ECN should circumscribe all areas which are already
build up, and those areas which are considered to be
developed during the planning period
• The ECN should contain all areas of systematic daily life of
the people oriented towards the city centre
• The ECN should be compatible with previous studies of the
area or studies planned for the future
• The ECN should be continuous and uniform in its course so
that movements can cross it only once. The line should
intersect roads where it is safe and convenience for carrying
out traffic survey
 Road

External
cordon
line
 Study area and its delineation
• Inner Cordon
– Boundaries of the area of intense activity (CBD) within
the study area.
– There may be one or more inner cordons in the study
area

• Traffic Analysis Zones (TAZ)

– The boundaries of these zones should be selected to
include areas with homogenous land uses and trip
making characteristics
 Zoning
• The defined study area is subdivided into smaller areas
called zones or traffic analysis zones
• The purpose of such a subdivision is to facilitate the spatial
quantification of land use and economic factors, which
influence travel pattern
• Subdivision into zones further helps in geographically
associating the origins and destinations of travel
• Zones within the study area - internal zones and outside the
study area – external zones
• Zones can themselves divided into sub-zones depending on
the type of land use
 Coding of zones
• A convenient system of coding of the zones will be
useful for the city. One of such system is to divide the
study area into 9 sectors
• The central sector (CBD) is designated ‘0’, and the
remaining eight are designated from 1 to 8 in a
clockwise manner
• The prefix 9 is reserved for external zones
• Each sector is subdivided into 10 traffic zones barring
numbers 0 to 9
• Each zone can be divided into 10 sub-zones barring
numbers 0 to 9 (if necessary)
Guidelines for dividing the area into zones
• The zones should have a homogeneous land use so as to
reflect accurately the associated trip making behaviour
• Anticipated changes in land use should be considered when
sub-dividing the study area into zones
• It would be advantageous, if the sub-division follows closely
that adopted by other bodies (census) for data collection.
This will facilitate correlation of data
• Zones should not be too large to cause considerable errors
in data. Also they should not be too small either to cause
difficulty in analyzing data
Guidelines for dividing the area into zones
• The zones should preferably have regular geometric form
for easily determining the centroid
• The sectors should represent the catchment of trips
generated on a primary route
• Zones should be compatible with the screen lines and
cordon lines
• Zone boundaries should preferably be watersheds of trip
making
• Natural or physical barriers such as canals, rivers etc. can
form convenient zone boundaries
 Guidelines for dividing the area into zones
• As a general guide, a population of 1000 – 3000 may be the
optimum for smaller area; and a population of 5000 – 10000
may be optimum for large urban areas. In residential areas, the
zones may accommodate roughly 1000 households

• In addition to external cordon lines, there may be number of

internal cordon lines arranged in concentric rings to check the
accuracy of survey data

• Screen lines running through the study area are used to check
the accuracy of data collected in home interview survey

• Screen lines can be conveniently located along physical or

natural barriers which have few crossing points
 Planning Period
• Normally plans are made for a period of 20 - 30 years

• To facilitate sequential planning and design of the

system, these estimates are needed at five-year
intervals.

• In order to analyze the travel demand in the study

area, all relevant data has to be collected for the
base year and forecast for the horizon year
 Planning Period
• Base Year
– The year in which the primary data is collected (Example
Home interview surveys, Road side traffic surveys etc.)
• Prior Base Year
– The nearest year in which the comprehensive Traffic
Transportation study was conducted.
• Horizon year
– This is the future year based on which the entire plan is
prepared.
• Intermediate Forecasting Years
– To facilitate sequential planning and design of the system
the estimates are prepared at small intervals which are
called Intermediate Forecasting Years.
 Transport surveys
• The basic movements for which survey data
required are
– Internal to Internal
– Internal to External
– External to Internal
– External to External
 Transport surveys

• For large urban areas, internal to internal is heavy,

whereas for small areas having small population (say
less than 5000), the internal to internal travel is
relatively less
 Transport surveys
• Most details of internal to internal travel can be
obtained from home interview survey
• The details of internal-external, external-internal and
external-external can be studied by cordon surveys

• Data collection: The data can be collected

– at home
– during the trip
– At the destination of trip
 Transport surveys
• Home interview surveys
• Commercial vehicle surveys
• Intermediate public transport surveys
• Public transport surveys

• Road side interview surveys

• Post card questionnaire surveys
• Registration number surveys
• Tag on vehicle surveys
 Home interview survey
• Intended to yield data on the travel pattern of the residents
of the household and the general characteristics of the
household influencing trip making

• Because of the wide variety of data that can be collected

by the home interview survey and the high cost involved, it
is necessary to standardize the procedure for such surveys

• Bureau of Public Roads (BPR) manual

• Since travel patterns tend to be uniform in a particular

zone, it is sufficient if a sampling procedure employed
 Sample size
• The size of the sample is usually determined on the basis
of the population of the study area and the standards
given by BPR are as follows.

Population of study area Sample size

Under 50,000 20% (1 in 5)
50,000 to 1,50,000 12.5% (1 in 8)
1,50,000 to 3,00,000 10% (1 in 10)
3,00,000 to 5,00,000 6.67% (1 in 15)
5,00,000 to 10,00,000 5% (1 in 20)
Over 10,00,000 4% (1 In 25)

• We generally use electoral rolls for selecting households

Techniques used in home interview survey
• Full interview technique involves interviewing as many
members of the household as possible and directly
recording all the information

• In the home questionnaire technique, the interviewer

collects only details of the household characteristics,
leaving forms for household residents to complete with
regard to travel information

• The completed forms are collected by interviewers in a

day or two
 Techniques used in home interview survey
• In both the above methods, it is necessary to send out a
letter to the selected households prior to the proposed
interview, explaining the nature, importance and objective
of the survey and eliciting their cooperation

• In addition, wide publicity is given to the survey in the local

press, radio and television

• Usually full interview technique is more expensive and the

needed information can collect only at the rate of about 6
interviews per 8 hour day per interviewer
Techniques used in home interview survey
• The home questionnaire is faster and it may be possible to
cover 15 households per day

• While the full interview technique yields very accurate

data, the same can not be said in home questionnaire
method

• Variations of above techniques used wherever possible

– The telephone interview and
– Postal questionnaire survey
 Home interview survey
• The information to be collected from the home
interview survey can be broadly be classified into
three groups:
– Household information
– Person information
– Trip information
 Home interview survey data
Household Person Trip
information information information
➢ Household ➢ Name, age, ➢ Origin and
contact details gender Destination of trip
➢ Type of residence ➢ Household ➢ Purpose of trip
and ownership structure ➢ Mode(s) of travel
➢ Household size ➢ Starting and
➢ Education level
➢ Household vehicle ending time of trip
➢ Occupation
ownership ➢ Waiting time
➢ General modes of
➢ No. of licensed ➢ Comfort level for
everyday travel
drivers using public
➢ Household ➢ Type of transport
monthly income workplace
 Transport surveys
• Home interview surveys
• Commercial vehicle surveys
• Intermediate public transport surveys
• Public transport surveys
• Road side interview surveys
• Post card questionnaire surveys
• Registration number surveys
• Tag on vehicle surveys
Data sheet for Commercial vehicle survey
• Vehicle type: ………………. Registration No: …………..
• Name and address of the owner of vehicle:
…………………………………………………………………………..
• Date: ……………………….. Day: …………………………………
Trip Origin Destinat Time of Time of Type of
No. ion start finish goods
carried
1
2

Treat each point of loading/unloading of goods as origin/destination

 Data sheet for IPT survey
• Vehicle type: ………………. Registration No: …………..
• Name and address of the owner of vehicle:
…………………………………………………………………………..
• Date: ……………………….. Day: …………………………………

Trip Origin Destinat Time of Time of No. of passenger

No. ion start finish carried
1
2

Treat each point of loading/unloading of passengers as

origin/destination
 Data sheet for PT survey
• Vehicle type: ………………. Registration No: …………..
• Name and address of the owner of vehicle:
…………………………………………………………………………..
• Date: ……………………….. Day: …………………………………

Trip Origin Destinat Time of Time of No. of passenger

No. ion start finish carried
1
2

Treat each ticketing stage as origin/destination

 Transport surveys
• Home interview surveys
• Commercial vehicle surveys
• Intermediate public transport surveys
• Public transport surveys
• Road side interview surveys
• Post card questionnaire surveys
• Registration number surveys
• Tag on vehicle surveys
 Data sheet for cordon-line survey
• Survey station: …………. Surveyor: ………………

• Date: ………………… Day: ………………

• Time: …………….. Vehicle type: ………………..

• Origin: ……………… Destination: ………………..

• Vehicle occupancy (No. of persons): ………….

• Type of and quantity of goods carried: ………….

……………………………………………………………………
Data sheet for post card questionnaire survey
• Survey station: …………. Surveyor: ………………

• Date: ………………… Day: ………………………

• Time: …………….. Vehicle type: ………………..

• Origin: ……………… Destination: ………………..

• Vehicle occupancy (No. of persons): ……………….

• Type of and quantity of goods carried: ………….

…………………………………………………………………………
 Data sheet for registration number survey

• Survey station: …………. Surveyor: ………………

• Date: ………………… Day: ………………………

• Type of movement: Ext. to Int. / Int. to Ext.

• Time: ……………… Vehicle type: ………………..

• Registration number: ……………….

 Tag – on – Vehicle survey
• Survey station: …………. Surveyor: ………………

• Date: ………………… Day: ………………………

• Vehicle type: …………….. Time while sticking: ……

____________________________________________

• Survey station: …………. Surveyor: ………………

• Date: ………………… Day: ………………………

• Vehicle type: …………….. Time while removing: …….

Travel Demand Modeling
 Transport Demand Models
Mathematical form of a typical model:
Y = f(X, )
Where, Y= dependent variable, e.g., number of trips
produced from a spatial unit
X= a set of explanatory (independent) variables
= corresponding set of parameters

Example:
𝑌 = 𝑎 + 𝑎1 𝑥1 + 𝑎2 𝑥2
Where, Y is number of trips produced from a spatial
unit
𝑥1 = residential population
𝑥2 = number of cars owned
 Transport Demand Models
Calibration / Estimation:
Is the exercise of estimation of parameters, 𝑎, 𝑎1 , 𝑎2
optimising one or more goodness of fit measures. In
the case of least square method of estimation, the
sum of squared errors between observed (Y) and
෠ is minimised.
estimated (𝑌)

Validation:
The process of comparing the model predictions with
the information that is not used during the process of
model estimation.
 Classification of Demand models:
Cross-section model vs Temporal model
• Cross-section model
– model that uses data on dependent and independent
variables collected at one point in time for several spatial
units (e.g., Traffic Analysis Zones)
– The traditional four stage urban travel demand model is a
cross-sectional model

• Temporal model
– Model that uses panel data (collected at different points
of time) on dependent and independent variables for a
single spatial unit (e.g., airport, city, etc)
 Classification of Demand models:
Trend model vs Econometric model
• Trend Model
– Causal variable is only time
– All growth factor models are trend models
– e.g., linear, exponential, logistic trend models

• Econometric Models
– The econometric variables (e.g., GDP, employment,
car ownership, etc.,) that cause the changes in
demand are used as independent variables
– Traditional four stage model is an econometric model
 Classification of Demand models:
Aggregate model vs Disaggregate model
• Aggregate Models
– The demand model that uses summaries of data is an
aggregate model
– The traditional four stage urban travel demand model is
an aggregate travel demand model as it uses zonal
summaries or aggregate data
• Disaggregate Model
– The demand model that uses the data on individual
decision making unit as it is and explains the behaviour of
the decision making unit when confronted with
alternatives is a disaggregate model
 Classification of Demand models:
Top-down model vs Bottom-up model
• Top-down model
– Top down models are also known as market share models.
A single model is developed for a larger spatial unit
(state) and the demand for the smaller units (regions,
individual airports, etc.) with in the larger unit is worked
out by market share methods

• Bottom-up model
– Separate models are developed for each smaller unit, and
when aggregated across all smaller units the demand for
the bigger unit comes out