GLOBAL DEMOGRAPHY

Introduction
Understanding, describing and making certain predictions about the composition
of a population with reference to their distribution and statistics of age, sex and other related
factors is called demography. In the olden times, this study of population may have been absent
because societies are treated in terms of their regionalist nature. With the advent of globalization
which facilitated movement of knowledge and models, goods and capitals among others, analysis
of population change not only within a country but across the globe is important.

Globalization produced a shift of demographic trends that shows improved and healthier
life, creation of ageing society, intra-and-intergenerational equity, giving importance to child care
and balance between work/private life, etc. As such, it essential to understand world demography
in terms of how globalization changed the world and identify the global forces that determine the
world’s demographic variables (i.e. fertility and death rates) across space and time.
Learning Outcomes

1. describe the theory of demographic transition

2. identify and explain how global forces affect demographic trends in different regions

Content
A. The Demographic Transition Theory

Demographic transition determined the “evolution of global population by regions with

changing shares of population across the regions (Ospina-Ortiz, E.,2018)”. It marks the period
whereby fertility and mortality rates significantly decreased from high levels in some parts of the
globe. Fertility rate refers to the actual number of children born to a woman or group of women.
It is otherwise known as birth rate which is measured by crude birth rate or the number of births
per 1,000 of the population in a given area and specified time. In contrast, mortality or death rate
is the number of deaths per 1,000 of the total midyear population in a particular place at a
specified time measured by crude death rate. The average number of years one expects to live
is called life expectancy. With the improvement of mortality conditions, the life span of a certain
population naturally increases.

The demographic transition follows a pattern illustrated as follows.

FIGURE 1. DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION MODEL

Source: socialsci.libretext.org
 Stage 1 Characterized by pre-industrial society, birth and death rates are high
during this stage. Population growth is typically low and balanced. People
live with agricultural activities to which they consider having large children
as an economic benefit, hence, contributing to high birth rates. However,
any fluctuations in birth rates are soon matched by death rates due to
starvation and diseases caused by unavailability of food, adequacy of
medical care and sanitation. Life expectancy is very short so to speak
(Social Science LibreTexts, 2020, and Agarwal, P., 2020).

Stage 2 Due to discovery of new sources of food or achievement of higher crop

yields, and improved sanitation, death rates rapidly drops during this stage.
Enhancement of food supply is made possible by selective breeding, crop
rotation and farming techniques. Public health care practices focusing in
the areas of food sanitation, water supply, sewage and personal hygiene
reduced diseases thereby decreasing mortality rate (Social Science
LibreTexts, 2020).

Though life expectancy relatively improved in this stage, birth rate

remained high. For this reason, the second stage marked the period of
rapid population growth otherwise known as population explosion
(Agarwal, P., 2020).

Stage 3 This stage is marked by the drop of birth rate accompanying the continuous
low death rate. With further improvements in health and sanitation, families
involved in agriculture became few (meaning less need for large families to
work on farms). Wages increased and women were empowered with their
enhanced literacy or education and participation in the labor force. These
sprouted to the idea of family planning and increased access to
contraception thereby lowering the fertility rate among women. Mortality
rate remained high as parents started to invest to their child care and
education.

Stage 4 In this stage, the population starts shrinking as both birth and death rates
are low. “Replacement level” of families become very low since families
now long for an average number of below two children each. Population is
considered shrinking because its rate remains the same or decreasing. The
generation born during the second stage is aging or becoming elderly
hence, the shrinking working population aging 15 years old to 64 are
expected to support the elderly members of the society (Social Science
LibreTexts, 2020).

Stage 5 Though debatable, a fifth stage is predicted to occur based on continuous

lowering of birth rate. With uncertainty, some demographers say that
fertility rate will shift either above or below replacement levels in this stage.
Some argue that it will rise some say the opposite.

B. The Beginning of Demographic Transition

The interaction between population and globalization can be drawn from the prehistoric
period whereby human beings migrated across the globe. This denotes the mobility of people
from the farming society of rural areas to globally linked lifestyle in the urban areas with respect
to food, markets, technology, leisure, among others. In essence, transition therefore is rooted
from migration activities of the human beings (Shigeyuki, 2018).

Demographic transition started to become visible in western countries. The Europeans

who are known to have explored different territories such as America and Australia have set
unprecedented wave of depopulation among the Native Americans and Aborigines in Australia
from 15th to 19th century. This is by way of spread of certain diseases such as small pox, measles,
mumps and enslavement to which the natives lack immunity. The depopulation in America and
Australia led to huge migration activities by Africans to Europe. In the form of enslavement and
forced migration, 11-12 million Africans migrated to the continent from 1520’s to 1888 while 54
million people between 1815 and 1930 have migrated into it due to its extreme labor and skills
requirement. Improvement of nutrition, reduction of mortality rates and increasing population
growth rates particularly in Western Europe have marked the demographic transition phenomena
of the last 250 years (Shigeyuki, A, Croix, S., and Mason, A, 2002).
.
C. Impact of Globalization to Demographic Transition

Following a four-stage pattern (the fifth being debatable), the pacing and timing though of
demographic transition is varied across countries (Shigeyuki, 2018). There are countries,
particularly the developing ones that are growing rapidly while some are growing very slowly or
shrinking. Although becoming more populated than before, the world population is slowing down
and it is distributed extremely unequally among the different territories. This may be due to
significant differences that exist across countries and regions such as their cultural, economic
and social forces (Snider, S., 2013).

In demography, there are three main variables that help to explain demographic trends:
1) the size of national population; 2) their rates of growth; and 3) age structures (Shigeyuki,
2018). The population size refers to actual number of individuals in the population; growth rate
refers to degree to which the size of the population is changing over time; and the age structure
as the distribution of individuals among age groups within a population (Snider, S., 2013). It is
important to note however that in understanding the demographic trends, natural population
growth accounts its explanation of population change from the difference between birth and
death rates alone. Natural increase means higher birth than death rate, while natural decrease
accounts a higher mortality than birth rate. If migration is included in the formula this refers to the
population growth rate.

Economic globalization which can be traced in 1850 at Europe is one source of global
migration. In the beginning, market integration is limited across Europe and the globe. There
was a limited international trade flows whereby capital markets are confined to small number of
developed countries in the continent. Transfer of information and technology is very slow which
did not encourage foreign direct investment, hence, limiting contact outside Europe.

With the opening of the Suez and Panama Canal at the end of 19th century, economic
globalization is pushed at a fast pace leading to extraordinary creation and exchange of capital,
labor and products outside Europe. The opening of the canals significantly reduced
transportation costs especially on sea transportation which facilitated exchange of important
products (e.g. wheat, meat, iron bars, copper, wool and coffee) between America and Europe.
European trade shares increased in Western Europe, doubled in Asia and more than tripled in
Africa. This event stimulated migration flow from Europe to North and South America as well as
Australia due to high increase in wages; from India to Africa and Asia; from China to Southeast
Asia and United States; and from Japan to North and South America and Hawaii up to the early
20th century. Europe and America in particular increased the flow of workers between them as
a manifestation of strong trading relationship. Falling transportation costs however damaged
the farmers in Europe as the prices of agricultural products within their region decreased due to
imposition of very low tariff rates to imported agricultural goods from America. It is for this reason
that an increase in immigration flow to America as well as Australia was made by European
farmers.

Equity markets in United States, Canada and European countries’ such as France,
England and Germany’s higher savings rates generated their demographic transition. This
however began to deteriorate when social policies of said countries emerged. The United States
imposed restricted to immigration for China in 1882 and Japan in 1907. Germany, Sweden,
France and many others also set tariffs to their grain imports and raw materials due to flooding
of American agricultural products in Europe. These prompted the shattering of global war,
World War I, which paralyzed the economic globalization. Refugee flows and immigration from
Europe and United States was cut during the wars. The redrawing of political boarders in Europe
stimulated immigration to Central and Eastern Europe. As a consequence, European countries
(except France) started to create immigration restrictions in 1920’s and 1930’s to Eastern
European migrants.

With the onset of World War II, weapons of massive destruction crushed civilian population
in Asia and Europe. Facilitated by inventions of more rapid dissemination of technologies and
 information before the outbreak of war, Germany under Adolf Hitler’s leadership, significantly
decreased world population by destroying Jewish population and having killed 50-70 million
people during the wartime combat, genocide and famine.

Said two world wars led to postwar refugee flows in tens of millions in Japan, China, Korea,
Europe, India and Pakistan. After World War II, repatriation of colonial populations and refugee
flows in Central Africa, Venezuela, Pakistan and Iran, Taiwan, Korea and Vietnam. Some western
countries such as Switzerland, Luxembourg, Belgium, Germany and Austria shared migrants in
their labor forces. Inter-Asian migration also generated Hongkong, Malaysia, and Singapore a
share of large number of migrants in their labor force. The oil companies in Middle East Asia also
benefited as they have large percentage of migrant workers in their labor force, mostly from Asia.

While voluntary immigration is restricted, migration per se increased gradually during the
post-World War 2. This weakened the demographic transition as it significantly changed the
working population of the origin and the host (receiving) country. Sending population are often
those that are growing rapidly composed of young ages while those that receive are usually
experiencing lower growth and ageing population.

The expansion and digitization of communication and transportation also inhibited

demographic transition as it led to decrease in costs of gathering information and transporting or
shipping goods and people. Life expectancy is also enhanced via public health, nutrition, medical
treatment, and proliferation of non-profit or inter-governmental organizations dedicated in
promoting economic, social, environmental welfare as well as demographic conditions.

With continuous improvement of life expectancy, the gap or expectancy differences

among countries became smaller especially between Japan and West as compared to other
countries. Mortality rates started to decline in African and Asian countries. At the end of 19 th
century, life expectancy of Japan as well as industrialized countries in the west is 12 years greater
than other countries; higher by 20 years in 1900; and relatively 22 years higher from 1900-1950
because the gains in life expectancy were confined in these industrialized countries only.
However, their gap significantly decreased to 14 years in 1999 when life expectancy improved
significantly all over the world. Until 1930’s Japan did not drop its fertility rate of five children per
woman while other Asian countries started its fertility decline only in 1950’s or later. As a result,
Asian countries (excluding Japan) and the rest of developing countries experienced rapid
population growth after World War 2.

With the increasing life expectancy, population of industrialized countries started to age.
Japan and the west’s overall demographic trend moved downward until 1950, making their
population ageing. The United States who had receiving migrants prior to the war periods
remained younger in its population. They continued to allow immigration of Europeans in their
country making their population almost tripled, from 99 million in 1910 to 6.14 billion in 2001.
Other countries sending migrants to US in effect are experiencing significant reductions of their
working population.

Aside from migration of young ages from developing to the industrialized countries, the
existence of baby boom after World War II created a large swing in the age structure of western
population. Baby boom is a term used to refer to children born in the west after World War II. It
denotes rising fertility rate in the west after the war and decreasing infant and child mortality in
developing countries such as Asia and Africa (Shigeyuki, A, Croix, S., and Mason, A, 2002).
With this, the world population increased in just about 40 years from 1960 to 1999 (Balan, M.
and Vasile, B., 2008). Western countries, especially United States of America, increased its
share in the world’s population. Overall, they share 22 to 33 percent of the population in the 19th
century while Asia and Oceania’s contribution fall to 56.7 from 69 percent. China and India
remained stagnant in their economy and demography in this century (Shigeyuki, A, Croix, S.,
and Mason, A, 2002).

In the 21st century, the above condition reversed as the developing regions of Africa, Asia,
Latin America and Oceania reached high levels of population growth rate. Previously, population
growth occurred mostly in Europe and western countries taking account of 69.3 percent of the
world population. In year 2000 however, Europe as well as its Europe-settler countries share only
19.7 of the global population. This is much far from their previous share of 69.3 % from 1820 to
1980. Latin America as well as Africa’s share doubled on the other hand (Shigeyuki, A, Croix, S.,
and Mason, A, 2002).

Dependency ratio which refers to the ratio of dependents, aging 0-14 years old and 65
and above, to the working age (15-64 years old) is also a critical reference to the changing global
population after the World War II. With their ageing population, Japan as well as other
industrialized countries in the west have different age structure from the rest of the world. While
they have high dependency ratio in later part of the 19th century, the trend fall starting year 1950.
Baby boom was noted after the World War 2 due to increase in fertility rate, hence, increase in
dependency ratio. This occurrence though was only temporary. After 1950, their childbearing
capacity (excluding Japan which birth rate only started to decline in 1970’s) significantly lowered
(Shigeyuki, A, Croix, S., and Mason, A, 2002).

Among Asian countries, India and Philippines shared higher dependency ratio than that
of the western countries in 1900. This was speeded by further increase in birth rate and decrease
rate of mortality due to gaining from high life expectancy all over the world which reached its peak
in 1970. Decades after this year, the gap of dependency ratio among countries becomes smaller
if not begun to disappear as birth rates have dropped all over the world. This imply that in the
future, global population is ageing making the dependency ratio to increase significantly. This will
happen first in the western countries as they have higher level of ageing population compared to
Latin America, Africa, Asia and other developing countries (Shigeyuki, A, Croix, S., and Mason,
A, 2002).

FIGURE 2. LATEST WORLD POPULATION BY REGION

Source: https://ourworldindata.org/world-population-growth

References
Demographic Transition Theory (2020) Retrieved from
https://socialsci.libretexts.org/Bookshelves/Sociology/Book%3A_Sociology_(Boundless)/17%3A
_Population_and_Urbanization/17.02%3A_Population_Growth/17.2E%3A_Demographic_Transi
tion_Theory on August 28, 2020
Nicolae-Balan, M and Vasile, V. (2008) Impact of globalization on the evolution of
demographic phenomenon. Romanian Journal of Economic Forecasting. Institute of Economic
Forecasting.
Ospina, E., Roser, H. and Ritchie, H. (2019) Population Growth. Retrieved from
https://ourworldindata.org/world-population-growth on June 20, 2019.
Snider, S. B. & Brimlow, J. N. (2013) An Introduction to Population Growth. Nature
Education Knowledge 4(4):3 Retrieved from
https://www.nature.com/scitable/knowledge/library/an-introduction-to-population-growth-
84225544/ on 20, 2020.
The Demographic Transition Model. Development Economics: Intelligent Economist and
Economic Theory. Retrieved from https://www.intelligenteconomist.com/demographic-transition-
model/ on August 28, 2020.

Prepared by:
Joyce B. Vea
ISUC CDCAS/DSS Faculty