Tenet WB IC
Tenet WB IC
Case Mix Analysis Suggests That High Leverage Has Hindered Organic Investment.                                Valuation
In our view, one way to measure the impact of a company’s growth capital investment                           EV/EBITDA          7.5x     7.6x      7.4x
is to assess trending case mix index (CMI) levels over time. We ind that CMI growth
at Tenet hospitals has averaged about 1% from 2012 to 2016 versus the all-hospital
average of 1.8%, and in key local markets Tenet’s average CMI increase has been just                          Trading Data
0.7% versus 2.3% per year for local market competitors. Tenet’s adjusted admissions                           Shares Outstanding (M)                 100.8
growth has lagged the peer group average over the last four quarters.                                         Float (M)                               98.4
                                                                                                              Average Daily Volume               3,824,610
Sum-of-the-Parts Valuation of “New Tenet” Does Not Yield Meaningful Upside.
While there are a number of shifting pieces in the hospital outlook, using our 2019                           Financial Data
segment EBITDA projections and Tenet’s ive-year average EV/EBITDA multiple of 7.5                             Enterprise Value                    $18,274
times for hospital EBITDA, a 10-times multiple for ambulatory segment EBITDA, and
an 8-times multiple for Conifer segment EBITDA, along with net debt of $14.9 billion,
leads to a stock price today in the $14-$20 range.
Concerns and Risks. High leverage limits lexibility and puts pressure on cash low
generation; the revenue outlook relies on successful contracting with managed care
organizations; management and board disruption is ongoing; and Tenet relies on
federal and state government programs.
Tenet Healthcare Corporation, based in Dallas, is a diversi ied healthcare services provider that primarily
operates hospitals and integrated delivery networks in urban and suburban communities. The company
is a leading operator of ambulatory surgery centers through its USPI ownership and offers revenue cycle
management and other solutions through its Conifer Health Solutions segment.
Please refer to important disclosures on pages 24 and 25. Analyst certification is on page 24.
William Blair or an affiliate does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports.
As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the ob-
jectivity of this report. This report is not intended to provide personal investment advice. The opinions and
recommendations herein do not take into account individual client circumstances, objectives, or needs and
are not intended as recommendations of particular securities, financial instruments, or strategies to particular
clients. The recipient of this report must make its own independent decisions regarding any securities or
financial instruments mentioned herein.
    William Blair
    Investment Thesis
                We are initiating coverage on Tenet Healthcare with a Market Perform rating. Tenet is a diversi ied
                provider of healthcare services, with one of the leading ambulatory surgery center businesses in
                United Surgical Partners (USPI) and a large revenue cycle management arm in Conifer complementing
                a hospital business that operates 77 acute facilities in 11 states (will be 69 once announced dives-
                titures are completed). We believe Tenet’s efforts to rightsize its hospital portfolio and accelerate
                its ownership of USPI are positive moves that should help the company reduce leverage over time
                and improve its growth and margin pro iles, as segment-level EBITDA margins in the ambulatory
                business are more than three times the hospital business.
                We believe the “new Tenet” that emerges from the portfolio reshaping, corporate restructuring, and
                management turnover is likely to be a more attractive asset than the bloated company that grew
                out of the 2013 Vanguard acquisition. However, until there is more clarity about the company’s
                long-term leadership, strategy, earnings power, and cash low generation potential, we do not
                believe that shares can sustainably outperform. As we describe in more detail below, we are also
                concerned that Tenet’s remaining hospitals (still its core assets) have underwhelming quality and
                patient satisfaction scores.
                Overall, our view is that the management turnover, portfolio reshaping, corporate restructuring,
                and softer end-market environment all make it unlikely that shares will sustainably outperform
                over the next 12 months. With the likelihood of a true breakup decreased following recent board
                and management changes, we believe consistent execution (which will take time) rather than a
                one-time event like a company sale or segment divestiture is what will be required for the stock to
                start sustainably moving higher.
                A comparable company valuation table is provided in exhibit 1 (facing) and a summary inancial model
                is available in exhibit 2 (page 4).
                                                              Exhibit 1
                                                    Tenet Healthcare Corporation
                                                        Valuation Summary
                                                                         Exhibit 2
                                                               Tenet Healthcare Corporation
                                                                Financial Model Summary
           ($ in millions, except per-share items)             2014A        2015A      2016A          2017E      2018E      2019E      2020E
           Revenue drivers:
           Same-store growth:
             Admissions                                         2.4%         1.1%       -0.2%         -2.2%      -0.9%      0.3%       0.4%
             Adjusted admissions                                3.5%         2.4%       0.9%          -1.3%      -0.9%      0.0%       0.3%
             Revenue per equivalent admission                   0.8%         3.0%       3.6%          1.0%       -0.8%      1.1%       1.1%
             USPI case growth                                                7.9%       5.2%          0.0%       2.4%       2.3%       2.0%
             Conifer revenue growth                            29.8%        18.4%      11.2%          3.1%       2.6%       2.7%       2.4%
           Consensus estimates:
           Revenue                                                                                   19,034     18,625     19,292        NA
           Adjusted EBITDA                                                                            2,392      2,478      2,582        NA
           Adjusted EPS                                                                          $     0.68 $     1.39 $     1.97        NA
           Other:
           Return on invested capital                            7.1%        7.8%       8.1%          8.1%       8.8%       9.3%       9.4%
           Total debt/EBITDA                                      6.0x        6.4x       6.2x          6.2x       5.8x       5.2x       5.0x
           Sources: Company reports, FactSet, and William Blair estimates
Investment Highlights
      There has been considerable attention of late on the USPI and Conifer businesses, and in our view,
      given the reduced likelihood that a breakup or outright sale is set to occur in the near future, the
      hospital business needs to be further scrutinized. Thus, as we detail below, the key points we con-
      sider in forming our investment thesis are as follows:
      •   Tenet’s Hospitals (Still Its Core Assets) Do Not Have Superior Quality Scores Versus Local Market
          Competition
      •   A Case Mix Analysis Suggests That Tenet’s Organic Investment Has Been Hindered by Its High
          Leverage Levels
      •   Assessing the Value of “New Tenet” When the Dust Settles From Ongoing Hospital Sales and Cor-
          porate Restructuring
      Tenet’s Hospitals (Still Its Core Assets) Do Not Have Superior Quality Scores Versus Local
      Market Competition
      As we have discussed throughout our initiation on the healthcare delivery space, we view quality—in
      particular, quality versus local competition—as both an important objective measure of execution
      and a long-term indicator of competitive positioning. While Tenet’s USPI and Conifer businesses give
      shareholders more exposure to other revenue streams than publicly traded peers, Tenet’s bread and
      butter is still operating hospitals. Even after the most recent hospital sales of facilities in Chicago
      and Philadelphia, we still expect the hospital segment (which includes a variety of outpatient ac-
      cess points as well) to contribute roughly 80% of revenue and 60% of EBITDA in 2018. So despite
      the more recent attention on management turnover and theoretical breakups of the business, we
      believe it is worth assessing how Tenet’s remaining hospitals—still its core assets—stack up versus
      national and local competition.
      We looked at a number of different metrics to assess the quality performance of Tenet hospitals,
      including key questions from the Hospital Consumer Assessment of Healthcare Providers and
      Systems (HCAHPS), readmissions data, and Hospital Total Performance Scores (TPS) that drive
      the Medicare Value-Based Purchasing program. This broad data set provides insight into objective
      clinical performance and subjective evaluations garnered from patient surveys.
      By almost every measure that we assessed, Tenet’s hospitals as a group score slightly below the
      national average. For example, Tenet’s average star rating for the HCAHPS measure “Overall Hospital
      Rating” is 2.76 versus the national average of 3.41, the summary star rating for Tenet hospitals aver-
      ages 2.40 versus the national average of 3.27, and 84.7% of patients said they would recommend
      a Tenet hospital versus the national average of 88.1%.
                                                                           Exhibit 3
                                                                 Tenet Healthcare Corporation
                                                                  CMS HCAHPS Survey Data
                Tenet hospitals also fall short on more objective measures. Total readmission rate of 15.6% is above
                the national average of 15.3% and Tenet hospitals’ average readmissions within important catego-
                ries like stroke, coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) surgery, hip or knee replacement, and heart
                attack all are above the national averages. And the average TPS scores (which measure patient and
                caregiver experience, safety, ef iciency, and cost reduction) at Tenet’s remaining hospitals are also
                below the national average by nearly 25%.
                                                                            Exhibit 4
                                                                  Tenet Healthcare Corporation
                                                          Hospital Readmissions Data (Lower Is Better)
Source: CMS
                While national scores are relevant to benchmark Tenet’s operating performance, competition
                between providers occurs at the local level. To gauge how Tenet compares with its local competi-
                tors, we chose six of Tenet’s most important counties and compared Tenet hospitals to non-Tenet
                hospitals. These counties include: Maricopa County, Arizona (which includes the Greater Phoenix
                area); Bexar County, Texas (San Antonio); El Paso County, Texas (El Paso); Miami-Dade County,
                Florida (the Greater Miami area); Palm Beach County, Florida (West Palm Beach, Boca Raton, and
                other similar cities); and Wayne County, Michigan (the Greater Detroit area). We estimate that these
                markets include roughly 30% of Tenet facilities and 40% of Tenet’s beds. And again, by almost every
                measure that we assessed, Tenet’s hospitals are outperformed by their local market competition.
For example, Tenet’s average “Overall Hospital Rating” for hospitals in those key markets is 2.41
(below its broader average of 2.76) versus the competitor average in key local markets of 3.32. In
Maricopa County, Tenet hospitals average a star rating of 2.00 versus a competitive average of 3.46.
Key local market competitors score below the national average for summary star rating (2.99 versus
the national average of 3.27) and likelihood to recommend (87.9% versus the national average of
88.1%), but still above Tenet’s score in those markets of 2.02 and 83.25%, respectively.
                                                        Exhibit 5
                                              Tenet Healthcare Corporation
                                               Key Market CAHPS Analysis
On more objective measures, Tenet hospitals also underperform key local market competitors. Total
readmission rate of 15.8% is above the key local market average of 15.6%, and Tenet’s key market
average readmissions within important categories like stroke, CABG surgery, and hip or knee re-
placement are all below Tenet’s broader averages and below local market competitors. And again,
Tenet’s average TPS score of hospitals in these key local markets is below its broader average (26.8
versus 27.6) and is well below the key local market average of 34.9.
                                                        Exhibit 6
                                              Tenet Healthcare Corporation
                                    Key Market Readmissions Analysis (Lower Is Better)
Source: CMS
                In our view, this set of measures provides a good gauge for overall hospital quality. While hospitals
                can take a number of different steps to increase volumes (recruiting physicians, local M&A activity,
                adding capacity to existing service lines, and adding new service lines), over time we believe that
                clinical and operational quality should be a good indicator for organic market share shift. From this
                perspective, we view Tenet as being at risk to be a market share donor in the future despite its cur-
                rent standing as No. 1 or No. 2 in 18 of its 24 markets and, more broadly, we believe it is important
                that management work to improve the quality performance at its hospitals to sustain con idence
                in the organic growth story.
                A Case Mix Analysis Suggests That Tenet’s Organic Investment Has Been Hindered by Its High
                Leverage Levels
                Our analysis of Tenet’s case mix progression over the last several years also suggests that the com-
                pany’s high leverage levels have limited management’s ability to add high-value service lines rela-
                tive to its local market competitors. As a reminder, a hospital’s case mix index (CMI) is calculated
                by taking the sum of the diagnosis-related-group (DRG) weights for all Medicare discharges and
                dividing by the number of Medicare discharges. In other words, CMI is a proxy for the average acu-
                ity of patient cases at a hospital. The data iles that support CMS’s Inpatient Prospective Payment
                System (IPPS) use discharge data from two years back, so for example the 2018 IPPS rule is based
                on 2016 discharge data.
                With that in mind, our assessment inds that CMI growth at Tenet hospitals has averaged about
                1% from 2012 to 2016 versus the all-hospital average of 1.8%. In aggregate, CMI is up 4% at Tenet
                hospitals versus 7.5% across the industry. Furthermore, in the key local markets we described
                above, Tenet’s average CMI increase has been just 0.7%, while CMI at local market competitors has
                increased an average of 2.3% per year, good for an aggregate increase of 9.7% versus 2.7% in local
                Tenet hospitals.
                Over the last several quarters, Tenet’s adjusted admissions growth has slipped along with its peers
                due to the softening admissions environment. However, Tenet’s adjusted admissions growth has also
                slipped compared with its peers—growing below the peer group average over the last four quarters.
                The company has, of course, been using capital to inance its initial acquisition of USPI and more
                recently its efforts to accelerate its USPI ownership. In addition, the company has completed a number
                of large growth-enhancing capital projects in key hospital markets over the last 12 months, including:
                •    a new $155 million critical care tower (83 beds, four operating rooms) at DMC Children’s Hos-
                     pital of Detroit (opened July 2017);
                •    a new $80 million patient care tower (96 beds in private rooms and a cardiovascular clinic) at
                     Delray Medical Center (opened July 2017); and
                •    a new $120 million, 106-bed teaching hospital (the Hospitals of Providence Transmountain
                     Campus), opened in January 2017 in El Paso, Texas.
                Overall, our view is that for the company to maximize the value of its hospitals (which remain
                the company’s core assets), the portfolio should continue to be refocused on the company’s best-
                performing hospitals. The company announced in September 2017 that eight domestic hospitals in
                four markets (including the announced sales of two hospitals in Philadelphia) would be sold along
                with the company’s Aspen operations in the United Kingdom. We believe this was a good start, and
                hospitals that in our view could be candidates for sale (either as part of the recently announced
                asset sale plan or in further divestiture activity) are listed below. We note that press reports have
                suggested that the company is looking to exit the Chicago market entirely.
•   West Suburban Medical Center in Oak Park, Illinois—2-star HCAHPS patient satisfaction rating
    (ranks fourth worst in the company’s portfolio by raw score) and 2-star summary star rating,
    16.2% readmissions versus 15.9% Cook County, Illinois, average
•   Louis Weiss Memorial Hospital in Chicago, Illinois—2-star HCAHPS patient satisfaction rating
    (ranks ninth worst in the company’s portfolio by raw score) and 2-star summary star rating,
    16.9% readmissions versus 15.9% Cook County, Illinois, average
•   Des Peres Hospital in St. Louis, Missouri—3-star HCAHPS patient satisfaction rating and 3-star
    summary star rating, 18.4% readmissions versus 15.4% St. Louis County, Missouri average;
    Tenet’s only hospital in Missouri
Assessing the Value of “New Tenet” When the Dust Settles From Ongoing Hospital Sales and
Corporate Restructuring
The asset sale plan announced in September 2017 includes eight U.S. hospitals in four markets (in-
cluding the two pending sales in Philadelphia) and the nine Aspen assets in the United Kingdom—so
17 targeted sales in total and expected proceeds of $900 million to $1 billion (including $170 million
from recently announced sales in Philadelphia). While this announcement was the most dramatic step
taken, Tenet has been undergoing a fairly dramatic transformation for the better part of two years.
Starting in November 2015, management has taken the following actions to reshape the company:
•   November 2015: Sale of two facilities in North Carolina, 137-bed Central Carolina Hospital and
    355-bed Frye Regional Medical Center (along with 19 physician practices), to LifePoint Health
    for $1 billion.
•   April 2016 (announced in December 2015): Sale of Atlanta, Georgia, hospitals to WellStar
    Health System for $575 million. The transaction included Atlanta Medical Center and its South
    Campus, North Fulton Hospital, Spalding Regional Hospital, Sylvan Grove Hospital, and 26
    physician clinics.
•   May 2017 (ϐirst quarter 2017 earnings call): Sold Managed Medicaid in Arizona and majority
    of home health and hospice business.
•   May 2017 (ϐirst quarter 2017 earnings call): Announced accelerated ownership plan for
    USPI. The amended agreement with Welsh Carson allowed Tenet to increase its ownership to
    roughly 80% in July 2017 and 95% as soon as 2019. Tenet paid Welsh Carson $711 million to
    buy 23.7% of USPI (roughly 10 times 2017 EBITDA less NCI) and will pay approximately $275
    million-$325 million in July 2018 (to raise its stake to 87.5%) and 2019 to inalize its purchase.
•   August 2017: Closed a previously announced deal to sell Houston-area operations (over 1,000
    total beds) to HCA Healthcare for $750 million. The facilities included in the sale are three acute-
    care hospitals (Cypress Fairbanks Medical Center, Houston Northwest Medical Center, and Park
    Plaza Hospital) and one LTACH (Plaza Specialty Hospital) along with other hospital-af iliated
    entities (e.g., physician practices).
                 •    September 2017: Agreed to sell 399-bed Hahnemann University Hospital and 189-bed St.
                      Christopher’s Hospital for Children in Philadelphia to Paladin Healthcare. Sale price of $170
                      million is for about $790 million of revenue and $15 million in loss before interest, taxes, de-
                      preciation, and amortization. The sale, which is expected to close in irst quarter 2018, will
                      generate a $200 million taxable loss, which when offset by a roughly $500 million taxable gain
                      from the Houston sales and expected $100 million gain from other targeted divestitures, will
                      leave Tenet with an NOL of $1.3 billion (down from $1.7 billion at year-end 2016).
                 •    October 11, 2017: Agreed to sell 368-bed MacNeal Hospital and af iliated operations (includ-
                      ing an independent practice association of more than 1,000 physicians and an accountable care
                      organization) in the Chicago area to Loyola Medicine (a Trinity Health af iliate). The deal, which
                      is expected to close in irst quarter 2018, had an undisclosed sale price, with revenue that we
                      estimate (based on previous news reports) near $275 million and EBITDA near $28 million.
                 •    October 27, 2017: Announced corporate restructuring with third quarter 2017 preview. Tenet
                      believes it can reduce annual operating expenses by $150 million, primarily through headcount
                      reductions and contract renegotiations with suppliers and vendors. Roughly 75% of the savings
                      are expected through a restructuring of the company’s Hospital Operations group, including the
                      elimination of a regional management layer and overhead and centralized support functions
                      (1,300 jobs in total, including contractors).
                 We give management credit for taking these much-needed steps toward rightsizing and believe
                 that with additional paring and a focus on quality improvement, an attractive portfolio of market-
                 share-leading hospitals and ambulatory surgery centers could emerge. To consider what the value
                 of this “New Tenet” portfolio could be, we walk through a bull/bear analysis on the Conifer and
                 ambulatory segments, using 2019 EBITDA as a basis for valuation given that 2018 will remain a
                 year of transition for the company.
                 Conifer. While we like the revenue diversity and strategic value that Conifer provides, we are con-
                 cerned that 40% of revenue comes from Tenet hospitals and 35% comes from hospitals under the
                 CHI (Catholic Health Initiatives) umbrella.
                 In a bull-case scenario where revenue growth from non-Tenet and non-CHI hospitals grows at a
                 13.5% compound annual rate through 2020 (CAGR from 2014 to 2017 of 22%) and revenue from
                 Tenet and CHI hospitals combines to grow in the low single digits, Conifer would grow EBITDA near
                 7.5% per year through 2020 with modest margin expansion—contributing about $25 million of
                 incremental EBITDA every year.
                 Even with more modest expectations in our base-case scenario of a 2.5% revenue CAGR through 2020
                 and a 5% EBITDA CAGR, Conifer would contribute about $15 million of EBITDA growth per year.
                 Our bear-case scenario includes revenue from Tenet hospitals being down slightly every year, CHI
                 hospitals essentially lat, and revenue from all other Conifer customers growing in the low teens.
                 In this scenario, which considers broad disruption in the individual market and an overall reduc-
                 tion in volumes that puts Conifer hospital customers under pressure, total revenue growth through
                 2020 would be roughly 1% with an EBITDA CAGR through 2020 of 0.5% (assuming slight EBITDA
                 margin degradation each year).
                 Ambulatory. In a bull-case scenario where case growth of 3.25% and revenue per case growth of
                 4.25% generates an organic revenue CAGR of 7.5%, we believe this segment could generate a 17.5%
                 EBITDA CAGR through 2020 with total EBITDA margin expansion of roughly 450 basis points from
                 2017 to 2020.
      Our base case includes organic revenue growth of 5% (2.2% case growth, 2.8% revenue per case
      growth) and 13% EBITDA growth, which is a slight discount to the trailing-four-quarter average of
      12%. This case volume growth is in line with the 2%-3% growth that management has described
      as reasonable over the next couple of years.
      Lastly, our bear-case scenario includes revenue growth of 1% (minimal case growth and about 1%
      growth in revenue per case) and 7% EBITDA growth, which assumes a worsening of issues in the ASC
      market (dif iculty with payers, increased competition, restrictions on patient characteristics, etc.).
      Importantly, Tenet’s increasing stake in USPI (see details later in report) ampli ies the growth in
      EBITDA contribution as Tenet’s 80% ownership today moves up to 95% by July 2019.
      Summary. While there are a number of shifting pieces in the hospital outlook, our current target
      for hospital segment EBITDA in 2019 is $1.5 billion. We assign Tenet’s ive-year average EV/EBITDA
      multiple of 7.5 times to hospital EBITDA, a 10-times multiple to ambulatory segment EBITDA, and
      an 8-times multiple to Conifer segment EBITDA in our base-case scenario. These multiples, along
      with net debt of $14.9 billion, lead to a stock price today of about $14 in our base-case scenario.
      Using the same EBITDA multiples, our bull-case scenario yields a stock price of about $20, while
      increasing the multiple on the Conifer business (from 9 times to 10 times) and the USPI business
      (from 10 times to 11 times) yields a stock price of $28.
      Overall, our view is that current valuation largely re lects the soft end-markets and portfolio turnover
      associated with our base-case scenario. If new management is able to improve the performance
      of the hospital portfolio and USPI growth rebounds following a tumultuous 2017 (e.g., hurricanes,
      Humana out-of-network status), we believe the stock could work back into the low-$20 range. For
      now, with our base-case analysis falling in line with current valuation and the likelihood of a true
      break-up decreasing following recent board and management changes, we believe consistent execu-
      tion (which will take time) rather than a one-time event like a company sale or segment divestiture
      is what will be required for the stock to start consistently moving higher.
      Revenue Is in Part Dependent on the Company’s Ability to Successfully Contract With Managed
      Care Organizations
      In October 2016, Tenet lost its in-network status with Humana, which contributed to lost volume
      and revenue in the irst half of 2017. For example, in second quarter 2017, out-of-network status
      with Humana led to a 150-basis-point headwind on adjusted admissions and a 180-basis-point
      headwind on USPI cases. Humana accounted for 2.9% of total net revenue in 2016 and the top 10
      managed care payers accounted for nearly one-third of total revenue in 2016. Even if contract dis-
      putes are resolved relatively quickly (Tenet was back in-network with Humana on June 1, 2017),
      they can be disruptive to volumes. Failure to maintain in-network status with payers could lead to
      additional disruptions.
                 Management, Board, and Shareholder Disruption Adds Near-Term Uncertainty and Clouds
                 the Long-Term Outlook
                 On August 31, 2017, the company announced that long-time CEO Trevor Fetter would step down
                 on March 15, 2018, or as soon as a successor was appointed. As part of that announcement, lead
                 director Ron Rittenmeyer became executive chairman and a third-party irm was hired to ind a
                 permanent CEO. Seven weeks later, on October 23, Mr. Fetter stepped down from his role as chief
                 executive of icer and resigned as a director of the company. Mr. Rittenmeyer was appointed to serve
                 as CEO while the permanent search was continued. On November 9, two independent directors were
                 named to the board, bringing the total membership to 12, including 11 independent directors and
                 5 new directors in the last 12 months. In our view, the signi icant and ongoing changes at the board
                 and senior management level (we suspect additional turnover could occur following the hiring of
                 a new CEO) present the opportunity for operational disruptions and raise uncertainty about what
                 the composition of the company will look like and whether the strategic focus of the company will
                 change when the dust settles.
                 Legislative Changes That Affect Insurance Coverage Could Affect Demand Trends and
                 Uncompensated Care Levels
                 About one-third of Tenet’s hospital admissions and about 27% of patient revenues are related to
                 traditional Medicare and Medicaid patients. Future changes to Medicare or Medicaid eligibility
                 requirements or funding could negatively affect Tenet’s hospital revenue. In addition, Tenet has
                 exposure to state-speci ic programs that add some risk on the timing or level of payments for ser-
                 vices in those states. For example, Tenet’s guidance for 2017 includes a $220 million-$230 million
                 payment from the state of California related to the California Provider Fee program. In 2016 this
                 was paid on a quarterly basis, so while the payment already has state approval and preliminary
                 federal approval, the size of the payment adds some risk to the 2017 outlook.
     Corporate Overview
                 Of the hospital companies included in our healthcare delivery coverage, Tenet Healthcare Corporation
                 is the most diversi ied name on the list. While the Dallas-based company primarily is an operator
                 of integrated healthcare delivery networks in large urban and suburban markets, Tenet also has
                 market-leading exposure to the ambulatory segment in part through its United Surgical Partners
                 International (USPI) joint venture and operates a healthcare services subsidiary (Conifer) that is
                 branching out from its historical focus on revenue cycle management (RCM) to various other value-
                 based solutions. As of September 30, 2017, Tenet operates 77 acute-care hospitals, 21 short-stay
                 surgical hospitals, and over 460 outpatient centers in the United States and nine facilities in the
                 United Kingdom. Tenet is exiting its health plan business (as of September 30, 2017, the company
                 had sold three of its ive health plans and was winding down the remaining two). In addition, Tenet
                 has relationships with more than 50 leading not-for-pro it healthcare systems.
                 Tenet began its transformation from a regional hospital operator to a diversi ied healthcare provider
                 in 2008 with the launch of Conifer and investment in outpatient networks in some of its hospital
                 markets. On October 1, 2013, Tenet acquired publicly held Vanguard Health Systems for $4.3 bil-
                 lion in an all-cash transaction. The deal increased the size of the hospital portfolio by about 60%,
                 increased the number of outpatient facilities by 25%, and gave the company positions in Phoenix,
                 San Antonio, and Detroit. In total, the deal expanded the Tenet footprint from 49 hospitals and 126
                 outpatient centers serving 24 markets across 11 states, to 79 hospitals and 157 outpatient centers
                 in 30 markets across 16 states.
In March 2015, Tenet acquired 50.1% of leading ambulatory surgery center provider USPI, with
plans to advance its ownership over subsequent years (details below). At the time of acquisition,
USPI’s portfolio included 244 ambulatory surgery centers, 16 short-stay surgical hospitals, and 20
imaging centers in 29 states.
Business Overview
Tenet operates in three segments: hospital operations, ambulatory care, and Conifer. Exhibit 7 dis-
plays the historical revenue and segment-level EBITDA split between the segments.
                                                     Exhibit 7
                                           Tenet Healthcare Corporation
                                     Revenue and Segment-Level EBITDA History
   100%                                                 100%
90% 90%
80% 80%
70% 70%
60% 60%
50% 50%
40% 40%
30% 30%
20% 20%
10% 10%
      0%                                                  0%
             2011A 2012A 2013A 2014A 2015A 2016A               2011A 2012A 2013A 2014A 2015A 2016A
Hospital operations and other. The largest segment of the business, accounting for about 85%
of revenue (down from 96% in iscal 2011) and about 60% of EBITDA (down from 96% in 2011),
includes acute-care hospitals, ancillary outpatient facilities, urgent care centers, microhospitals,
and physician practices. Tenet has operated health plans in the past (six health plans with 139,000
members in 2015), but is exiting that business by the end of 2017.
As of September 30, 2017, this segment comprised 77 hospitals (including three academic medical
centers, two children’s hospitals, two specialty hospitals, and one critical access hospital), roughly
175 outpatient centers, 650 physician practices, and ancillary healthcare delivery locations. Ap-
proximately 2,000 employed physicians are among the over 130,000 total employees at Tenet.
Tenet has sole ownership (through its subsidiaries) of 60 of those hospitals, 13 are owned or leased
with a partner (a health system or physician group), and three are leased by Tenet from third par-
ties. Leases typically range 5 to 20 years. The outpatient centers include (as of December 31, 2016)
66 diagnostic imaging centers, 6 free-standing urgent care centers, 15 satellite emergency depart-
ments, and 10 provider-based ambulatory surgery centers—all run as departments of existing
Tenet hospitals. In addition (and as of December 31, 2016), Tenet operates 80 separately licensed
free-standing outpatient locations including eight diagnostic imaging centers, seven microhospitals,
four ambulatory surgery centers, and 61 urgent care centers (most are run under the MedPost brand
and managed by the USPI joint venture).
                 Given the recent and planned divestitures, we estimate that in 2018 roughly 22% of facilities and
                 beds will be located in Texas, about 18% of facilities and 15% of beds in California, and 14% of
                 facilities and 19% of beds in Florida. Similarly, over half of the outpatient centers are located in
                 California, Florida, and Texas.
                                                                                     Exhibit 8
                                                                           Tenet Healthcare Corporation
                                                                                 U.S. Facility Map
                       13 hospitals, 13%
                       of beds in CA                 15 hospitals, 20%             10 hospitals, 17%
                                                     of beds in TX                 of beds in FL
                   1
                       Includes ambulatory surgery centers, urgent care centers, diagnostic imaging centers, satellite emergency departments, and micro-hospitals
                   Source: Company reports; as of September 30, 2017
                 Ambulatory care. The ambulatory care segment, accounting for about 9% of revenue and about
                 29% of EBITDA, includes the operations of the USPI joint venture and the nine Aspen facilities in the
                 United Kingdom. As of September 30 2017, the USPI joint venture included 244 ambulatory surgery
                 centers, 34 urgent care centers (operated under the CareSpot brand), 22 imaging centers, and 20
                 short-stay surgical hospitals in 27 states. In many cases, USPI forms joint ventures with physician
                 groups and healthcare systems (192 facilities are jointly owned with systems). The majority of these
                 outpatient locations overlap with Tenet acute-care markets, as exhibit 9 indicates.
                 Surgical facilities in the USPI joint venture primarily are doing elective or non-emergency (rather
                 than emergency) cases, which in general lead to less schedule volatility and labor misallocation. The
                 broader trend toward minimally invasive surgery and improved anesthesia techniques has allowed
                 many procedures once restricted to the hospital (given the need for a longer recovery and likely
                 overnight stay) to move into the ASC setting. In addition, many states allow patients to stay for up
                 to 23 hours, which can incorporate an overnight stay.
                 As a result of these dynamics, along with patient preference for more consumer-friendly experi-
                 ences and payer preference for lower-cost delivery settings, over two-thirds of surgeries are done
                 in the outpatient setting.
                                                Exhibit 9
                                      Tenet Healthcare Corporation
                                            USPI Facility Map
USPI joint venture details. The original deal structure left Tenet with 50.1% ownership in the UPSI
joint venture, while private equity irm Welsh, Carson, Anderson & Stowe owned approximately
47% and Baylor University Medical Center owned roughly 3% of the joint venture. In January 2017,
Baylor exercised an option to purchase an additional roughly 2% from Welsh Carson, raising its
stake to 5%. The agreement called for Tenet’s ownership to gradually increase over time through
a put/call agreement, with 12.5%-25% of the equity held in the joint venture being put to Tenet
each year starting in 2016.
In April 2016, Tenet paid about $127 million to raise its total stake of the total entity to 56.3% (the
minimum 12.5% was put to Tenet), and in January 2017 another 12.5% was put to Tenet, continu-
ing the slow and steady ownership transfer. However, on the May 2017 earnings call, the company
announced an amended agreement with Welsh Carson that will allow Tenet to increase ownership
to roughly 80% in July 2017 and 95% as soon as 2019. Tenet paid Welsh Carson $711 million to
buy 23.7% of USPI (roughly 10 times 2017 EBITDA less NCI) and will pay approximately $275 mil-
lion-$325 million in July 2018 (to raise its stake to 87.5%) and 2019 (to inalize its purchase). The
speci ic amount will be determined by USPI’s performance as the multiple will be 10 times EBITDA
less NCI in each year.
Accelerating the ownership level of USPI will allow Tenet to use NOLs to reduce USPI’s federal income
taxes, which management estimates will improve cash low by about $50 million over the next two
years and reduces the redeemable NCI on the balance sheet by roughly $700 million.
Aspen Healthcare. In the United Kingdom, Tenet operates four acute-care hospitals, one cancer center,
and four outpatient facilities through its Aspen Healthcare subsidiary. Aspen began as a two-hospital
system that USPI acquired in 2000 (with funding from Welsh Carson) and was separated from USPI
in 2012. Tenet has announced its intention to divest these assets.
                 ASC reimbursement dynamics. To qualify as an ASC, a facility must operate exclusively to provide
                 surgical services with an expected duration of less than 24 hours following admission to patients
                 who do not require hospitalization. There are roughly 3,500 procedures approved for payment
                 in an ASC, with the most common being cataract surgeries, colonoscopies, and nerve procedures.
                 The payment schedule for ASCs is similar to the Outpatient Prospective Payment System (OPPS) in
                 that both systems rely on ambulatory payment classi ications (APCs) that are used to group ser-
                 vices or surgical procedures based on clinical and cost similarity. All services within an APC have
                 the same payment rate, though there are some services (corneal tissue acquisition costs, blood and
                 blood products, and many drugs) that are paid for separately. Each APC has a “relative weight” that
                 is based on the geometric mean of the cost to provide the services included in the APC. Payment
                 rates are set for individual services by multiplying the relative weight of a service’s APC by a con-
                 version factor to convert to a dollar payment rate, which is then adjusted for local market factors
                 (primarily labor costs).
                 In October 2017, CMS published its outpatient (OPPS) and ASC proposed rule for iscal 2018, which
                 called for a 1.35% payment rate increase to the OPPS schedule and 1.2% for ASCs. The OPPS rate
                 increase comprises a 2.7% hospital market basket increase less a productivity adjustment reduc-
                 tion of 0.6% and a 0.75% reduction to the 2018 OPPS market basket as required by the Affordable
                 Care Act. For-pro it entities are expected to see an increase of 4.5%, as CMS offset major cuts to the
                 340B drug program with a boost to nondrug items and services.
                 Conifer Health Solutions. Through its Conifer subsidiary, Tenet provides comprehensive revenue
                 cycle management (RCM) services and a host of other value-based solutions to healthcare provid-
                 ers. The RCM offering includes centralized insurance and bene it veri ication, inancial counseling
                 services, productivity and quality improvement programs, coding and compliance support, and
                 third-party billing and collections. Other services offered include customized patient communica-
                 tions and engagement services, inancial risk management, clinical integration and population
                 health tools, and management consulting services.
                 In total, Conifer has more than 800 hospital and other clients in 40 states, managing more than $29
                 billion in net patient revenue and more than 24 million unique patient interactions; however, about
                 40% of revenue comes from Tenet hospitals and roughly 35% comes from hospitals under the CHI
                 (Catholic Health Initiatives) umbrella. The 10-year CHI contract was announced in May 2012 and
                 at the time included over 50 CHI hospitals. In January 2015, Conifer announced a 10-year extension
                 and expansion of its agreement with CHI to provide patient access, revenue integrity, and patient
                  inancial services to 90 CHI hospitals through 2032. As part of that extension, CHI increased its
                 ownership stake to 23.8% in Conifer Health Solutions, Conifer’s operating subsidiary.
                 Conifer generates roughly 8.5% of total company revenue (up from about 5% in iscal 2016) and
                 about 12% of EBITDA. Conifer’s segment-level EBITDA margins in the high teens (about 17% TTM)
                 are more than double the current segment-level EBITDA margins of the hospital business.
                 Payer Mix
                 About one-third of Tenet’s hospital admissions and about 27% of patient revenues are related to
                 traditional Medicare and Medicaid patients. When USPI was acquired, more than three-fourths of
                 its revenue came from commercial payers, with Medicare at about 20% and Medicaid the balance.
Competition
      Tenet positions itself competitively by owning the No. 1 or No. 2 position on the acute-care side (a
      position it has in about 80% of its markets pro forma for the active divestiture plan) and augment-
      ing that reach with an extensive outpatient presence.
      While Tenet owns and operates facilities and offers services across the country, from a competitive
      standpoint healthcare delivery is distinctly local. Brand value varies by market, and in many cases
      for-pro it entities compete for patients with local community hospitals or healthcare organizations
      and large not-for-pro it entities and academic medical centers. In terms of local competition, the
      most heavily concentrated Tenet markets are Maricopa County (Phoenix), Miami-Dade County,
      Bexar County (San Antonio), and Wayne County (Detroit).
Financial Overview
      Top Line
      As exhibit 7 demonstrates, over 80% of revenue is generated from Tenet’s hospital business, with
      nearly 10% coming from the ambulatory care segment and 8% from Conifer.
      The key same-store drivers on the inpatient side of the hospital business are available beds, admis-
      sions per bed, outpatient equivalent admissions, and revenue per adjusted admission. Over the last
       ive years, same-store adjusted admissions growth has averaged 1.6%, with revenue per equivalent
      up an average of 2.4% per year over the same period. Year-to-date, those trends are markedly worse,
      with same-store adjusted admissions down about 2% and revenue per adjusted admissions up about
      1.5%. Inpatient revenue per admission is primarily driven by the yearly Medicare rate update to
      the Inpatient Prospective Payment System (IPPS), which has averaged 1.4% for the last ive years;
      payer mix; and patient mix. Outpatient revenue per equivalent admission is primarily driven by
      the yearly Medicare rate update to the Outpatient Prospective Payment System (OPPS), which has
      averaged 1.5% for the last ive years; payer mix; and patient mix.
      The key drivers of the ambulatory business are case growth and revenue per case, while Conifer
      revenue is driven by new customer acquisition and expanding the service offering at existing hospital
      clients. The Medicare ASC payment update has averaged 0.9% over the past ive years; however, only
      about 20% of USPI revenue is generated from Medicare, with the majority coming from privately
      insured patients. Roughly three-fourths of Conifer revenue is generated from Tenet-owned hospitals
      and hospitals owned by Catholic Health Initiatives (CHI). CHI is a minority owner in Conifer (nearly
      25% ownership), and in January 2015, Conifer announced a 10-year extension and expansion of
      its agreement with CHI to provide patient access, revenue integrity, and patient inancial services
      to 90 CHI hospitals through 2032.
      Growth outlook. In total, we forecast a 0.9% CAGR through 2020, with 7% USPI growth and 5%
      Conifer growth providing the majority of the growth as we expect total hospital revenue to have
      essentially a 0% CAGR through 2020 (and note that three hospital sales with nearly 1,000 combined
      beds will be closed by mid-2018).
      Proϐitability
      The majority of Tenet’s operating expenses are directly related to providing patient care and com-
      pensating employees for providing patient care. Salaries, wages, and bene its (SWB) as a percent-
      age of sales have increased from an average of 47% from 2010 to 2014 to 48.4% over the past six
                 quarters, although the company’s recently announced restructuring program is expected to lower
                 annual operating expenses by $150 million per year (about 6% of 2017 operating expenses), with
                 the majority coming from SWB through headcount reductions.
                 Tenet has lower bad-debt levels than its peers, in part because of its higher exposure to ambulatory
                 care (which has lower levels of bad debt, in the low single digits) and its Conifer business.
                                                                        Exhibit 10
                                                               Tenet Healthcare Corporation
                                                                  Bad-Debt Comparison
                     16.0%           TTM Provision for Doubtful Accounts                THC Doubtful Accounts Trend
                                                             13.9%           8.2%
                     14.0%           Average:                        13.3%
                                      11.1%          12.6%
                                                                             8.0%   7.9%
                     12.0%
                                                                             7.8%
                     10.0%                                                   7.6%
                                              8.5%                                                   7.3%
                                                                             7.4%             7.3%
                      8.0%      7.1%                                                                                  7.2%
                                                                             7.2%
                      6.0%                                                   7.0%                             6.9%
                                                                             6.8%
                      4.0%
                                                                             6.6%
                      2.0%
                                                                             6.4%
                      0.0%                                                   6.2%
                                 THC          HCA    LPNT    CYH     UHS            '10-'13   '14     '15     '16     '17E
                    Source: Company reports
                 From 2010 to 2014, Tenet spent an average of 5.7% of sales on capital expenditures, although that
                 has dropped off since the USPI acquisition and averaged 4.0% over the past six quarters. Over the
                 longer term, we expect capital expenditures roughly in line with current levels of 4.5% or less of
                 sales. In an environment where the IPPS, OPPS, and ASC payment rates are modestly increased each
                 year, we expect the growing contribution of Conifer and USPI (and increased USPI ownership) will
                 help boost EBITDA margins by an average of 30 basis points per year through 2020.
                 Proϔitability outlook. We forecast roughly 70 basis points of EBITDA margin expansion in 2018,
                 driven primarily by the company’s restructuring program and increased contribution from USPI,
                 which has segment-level EBITDA margins above 30% versus high single digits from the core hospital
                 business. A number of one-time items affected 2017 EBITDA that will not or are unlikely to recur,
                 including a $9 million HITECH bene it, an approximately $15 million headwind from not being in-
                 network with Humana, and a roughly $30 million headwind from the hurricanes. On a like-for-like
                 basis, we forecast approximately 3% EBITDA growth in 2018.
                 Through 2020, we forecast approximately 120 basis points of EBITDA margin expansion, from
                 10.7% in 2017 to 11.9% in 2020. This level of margin expansion along with the modest top-line
                 growth we forecast would generate a 4.5% EBITDA CAGR from 2017 to 2020. We note that given
                 the ongoing facility sales and corporate restructuring, long-term EBITDA targets are likely to move
                 around a number of times over the next 12 months.
Bottom Line
Earnings growth has not correlated with EBIT growth over the past several years, as a result of a
signi icant increase in interest payments, a ramp-up of net income attributable to noncontrolling
interest since the USPI acquisition, and tax rate luctuations from the company’s use of NOLs. From
2014 to 2017, we estimate EBIT will have grown at an 11.1% compound annual rate, while earn-
ings per share have declined at a roughly 25% compound annual rate despite a relatively consistent
share count. We forecast EBIT growth of 5.2% through 2020, while the company’s earnings growth
beyond that level will be tied to deleveraging.
In 2017, we forecast revenue of $19.02 billion (down 3.0%), adjusted EBITDA of $2.39 billion
(10.7% EBITDA margin), and adjusted EPS of $0.63. Current guidance calls for revenue of $18.9
billion-$19.1 billion, adjusted EBITDA of $2.375 billion-$2.425 billion, and $0.59-$0.75 of adjusted
EPS. Our 2018 forecasts include revenue of $18.58 billion (down 2.3%), adjusted EBITDA of $2.47
billion (11.4% EBITDA margin), and $1.26 of adjusted EPS.
Exhibit 11 summarizes our estimates through 2020 and, where available, compares our targets
with the Street consensus. Our detailed inancial model and revenue build are presented on the
following pages.
                                                             Exhibit 11
                                                    Tenet Healthcare Corporation
                                                  Summary of William Blair Estimates
  ($
  ($inin000s,
         000s,expect EPS) EPS)
                expect                   2016A           2017E
                                                       2016A          2018E
                                                                      2017E           2019E
                                                                                         2018E 2020E 2019E
                                                                                                        CAGR          2020E    CAGR
  Revenue
  Revenue
  Blair                                 19,621          19,024       18,579       19,162         19,566       0.9%
  Blair
  Street                                           19,621
                                                     19,034          19,024
                                                                     18,625          18,579
                                                                                  19,292            NA19,162         19,566     0.9%
  Street
   Delta                                                 -0.1%       19,034
                                                                      -0.2%             18,625
                                                                                      -0.7%            19,292           NA
  EBITDA
     Delta                                                            -0.1%              -0.2%            -0.7%
  Blair                                   2,441          2,390        2,474           2,613       2,727       4.5%
  EBITDA
  Street                                                 2,392        2,478           2,582         NA
  Blair
   Delta                                               2,441
                                                          0.0%        2,390
                                                                      -0.2%              2,474
                                                                                      1.2%                2,613       2,727     4.5%
  Earnings
  Street per share                                                    2,392              2,478            2,582         NA
  Blair                                   $1.04          $0.63        $1.26           $1.84       $2.08      48.8%
     Delta                                                             0.0%              -0.2%            1.2%
  Street                                           $      0.68   $     1.39   $        1.97         NA
  Earnings
   Delta   per share                                     -7.2%        -9.5%           -6.6%
  Blair                                                $1.04          $0.63              $1.26            $1.84       $2.08    48.8%
  Street                                                         $     0.68       $       1.39     $       1.97         NA
     Delta                                                            -7.2%              -9.5%            -6.6%
 Sources: William Blair estimates and FactSet consensus
                                                                                                                                                 Exhibit 12
                                                                                                                                       Tenet Healthcare Corporation
                                                                                                                                             Income Statement
                                                                                    Mar-16   Jun-16    Sep-16    Dec-16    Mar-17     Jun-17    Sep-17 Dec-17 Mar-18           Jun-18   Sep-18   Dec-18               Fiscal year ending December
                             ($ in millions, except per share items)                Q1'16A   Q2'16A    Q3'16A    Q4'16A    Q1'17A     Q2'17A Q3'17A Q4'17E Q1'18E              Q2'18E   Q3'18E   Q4'18E   2015A     2016A     2017E    2018E   2019E        2020E
21
22
                                                                                                                                     Exhibit 14
                                                                                                                            Tenet Healthcare Corporation
                                                                                                                                Cash Flow Statement
                                                                                                 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Sep-17 Dec-17 Mar-18 Jun-18 Sep-18                     Dec-18              Fiscal year ending December
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                William Blair
                             $ million, unless noted                                             Q1'16A Q2'16A Q3'16A Q4'16A Q1'17A Q2'17A Q3'17A Q4'17E Q1'18E Q2'18E Q3'18E                     Q4'18E     2015A   2016A 2017E 2018E 2019E           2020E
                             Beginning cash balance                                                356    728    656    649    716      572     475     429 501   330    743                        766        193     356      716      501    609      459
                             Cash flows from operating activities:
                              Net income / loss                                                     34       39       80       23       36       32    (289)   257      125      135      137        215         78     176      36     612     701     753
                              Depreciation and amortization                                        212      215      205      218      221      222     219    217      206      210      212        218        797     850     879     846     917     968
The prices of the common stock of other public companies mentioned in this report follow:
IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES
William Blair or an affiliate is a market maker in the security of Tenet Healthcare Corporation.
William Blair or an affiliate expects to receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking services from Tenet Healthcare
Corporation or an affiliate within the next three months.
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                                                                                          Closing Price
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