What went ‘right’: Decoding Modi 2.

Sumit Kr Sarma, Assistant Professor, Dept. of Political Science, Hema Prova Borbora Girls’
College, Golaghat

The Indian Parliamentary election of 2019, rightly called the largest festival of democracy, came
to an end on 23rd May, 2019 with a result which was surprising for many. It once again brought
into power the incumbent party- Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). Though most exit polls had
predicted the victory of the National Democratic Alliance led by the Prime Minister Narendra
Modi of BJP the magnitude of victory seemed unexpected. For many supporter, as well as
critics, it was a win for the sitting PM- Narendra Damodardas Modi, who appeared (or was
made to appear) invincible in the face of a weak opposition. But a closer look at the events
suggests that a number of factors went into the victory of NDA and BJP led by Modi. In this
article, an attempt is made to understand the resounding victory, though it might never be
possible to understand it completely given the complexity of Indian voters. Below are some of
the reasons that put the party back into power with larger seats than before.

1. Politics of ‘Expectations’

Inspite of not having performed well in the economic sector, nor generating enough jobs or
solving the agrarian crisis Modi was able to create a politics of ‘Expectations’ among the
rural voters. Some of the central schemes like Pradhan Mantri Awas yojana, Atal Amrit
Abhiyan, Swach Bharat Abhiyan, Ujjawala Yojana, Mudra Loan along with a plethora of
populist measures Modi was able to intrude the rural areas. It is important to note that
almost all these schemes carried the name of Modi along with his picture. Ask any rural
women who received Gas Cyclinder under the Ujjawala scheme, her reply would be ‘Modiji
gave us’ and not ‘Government’ which should have been the case technically. In a way, Modi
was able to market his name very effectively, especially among the rural voters where BJP
was traditonally thought to be weak. It will not be completely wrong to say that Modi has
made himself synomous with Government, as is amplified by the reply of a five year old kid,
who was asked ‘Beta, Sarkar kya hota ho jante ho app?’ “Modi” a promt reply.

2. Modi Vs. 10 (or more) Prime Minister(s) – in – waiting

The opposition from the very beginning was a house in turmoil. There was a complete lack
of leadership and coordination. The very idea of Rahul Gandhi heading the next government
was a non-starter from many leaders of opposition parties. There were many PM hopefuls-
Mayawati, Mamata, Mulayama, Naidu to name a few. The only national opposition party,
the Congress Party, was unable to name any Prime Ministerial candidate, even though it
was well-known that Rahul Gandhi would be the natural choice of the party. Thus, the
entire election was Modi Vs. Others. It is intresting to note that many little known BJP, who
were hardly visible, would win the election by large margins, since people voted in the
name of Modi and not the candidate. One of my friends reporting from Rajasthan told me
that even if a Dog stands with a BJP ticket it is going to win. Thus, Modi had effectively
turned this election into a Presidential election.

It is ironic that in a parliamentary democracy like India, people have voted for the ‘leader’
Narendra Modi, rather than members of parliament. No doubt, BJP president Amit Shah’s
shrewd strategy played a stellar role in this victory. Yet he still has a hyphenated identity –
the ‘master strategist’ has value as the ‘Modi- Shah combine’, i.e. as an appendage to Modi
rather than as an autonomous entity or propellant. Further, the entire campaign was only
about NaMo – both on and off the ground. The BJP sought votes only in the name of Modi,
even in social media campaigns like “nri4 Namo” to “academics4 namo”. Thus, in a real
sense, people have voted neither for their representatives, nor even for the BJP, but only
for Narendra Modi.

3. Shah – The man and the machine

Amit Shah- the Chanakya (to use Modi’s terminology) of Indian politics, has delivered to his
master the much required tools for winning any elections- Man and Machines. The foot
soldeirs of BJP under the effective command of Amit Shah played a key role in BJP’s victory.
Meticulous planning and effective implementation aided by strong party discipline was very
much visible in the Shah Camp. The workers made sure that the war (that’s what elections
have become today) cry of the party ‘Phir ek bar Modi sarkar’ reached every nook and
corner of the country.

4. Strategy, Statesmanship and Style

Modi projected himself as a leader with no alternative. In his campaings he openly asked
people to vote for himself rather than the local candidate. His strategy paid good dividends
to the party, as the work (un)done by the sitting MP’s had little relevance in the election.
Also, Modi projected himself as a statesman under whom the nation has received rightful
recognition in international arena. Modi is an incredible political campaigner. Though he
acts to a script, he can shift with precision the nature of discourse anytime if he anticipates
adversity and a swing in public mood. Of course, he utilised the Pulwama terror attack to
push his failings on the economic front into the background. His response to Pulwama – the
Balakot airstrike – changed the entire discourse, making everything else less relevant for
many. Nationalism became the mantra and the NaMo cult became unrivaled in many states.
Modi’s campaign on aggressive nationalism, national security, and anti-terrorism greatly
convinced a large part of the electorate that only a strong leader like Modi could defend
India’s national interest. This became evident in Modi’s clean sweep in the Congress-ruled
Rajasthan. Similarly, when Rahul’s chowkidar campaign was gaining momentum, Modi
deflated it by starting the ‘Main Bhi Chowkidar’ counter campaign.

5. The Modi ‘Cult’ – ‘Moditva’

The Modi cult – ‘Moditva’ – which sprouted in Gujarat, harping on Hindutva and ‘Gujarati
Asmita’, came out of its regional cocoon in 2014 and was launched with fanfare in Varanasi,
with the chanting of ‘Har Har Modi’. Later, systematically crafting an enigmatic persona,
with astute use of the media, it slowly acquired a large national following. Using modern
technologies of communication and governance, Prime Minister Modi reached out to a
large national constituency, primarily Hindu, cutting across region, class, caste, and even
gender. While he came to power with a narrative of development targeting the burgeoning
aspirational class, particularly the youth, he introduced – after occupying the prime
minister’s office – a plethora of development schemes promising to bring changes in the
lives of marginalised sections, the middle class, rural women and the urban poor. True, his
economic misadventures like demonetisation had disastrous effects on the nation’s
economy and on people’s lives. Yet, he could overcome the negative economic fall-out
politically, as many did not doubt his intention.
While one side of the cult was shaped around development, the other side was a narrative
on aggressive nationalism, encompassing a range of issues: Hindutva, sovereignty, national
security, terrorism, Pakistan, Kashmir, secularism, ‘appeasement’, ‘tukde-tukde gang’ and
now, the latest, ‘Khan Market gang’. Whenever the development narrative appeared weak
for some reason, the cult did not face any setback as the latter side was too powerful to
absorb any shock.

6. The Sangh Parivar

Credit should be given to the relentless effort made by the various organisations of the
Sangh Parivar to retain the incumbent government led by Modi. After all, Modi, a trained
Sangh pracharak, has been a Hindutva icon. His being at the helm will only promote the
Sangh ideology and agenda. Especially is states like Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh, where
BJP had recently lost the Assembly elections, the Sangh Parivar led by RSS played a key role
in reviving the party. It is to be remembered that the Sangh machinery did all strategic
planning for the BJP’s electoral victory from 2014 onwards. Modi’s winning spree in state
elections for a ‘Congress mukt Bharat’ were achieved under the direct supervision of Sangh
stalwarts – from Uttar Pradesh to Tripura. It had even laid out a well-thought Bengal
strategy for 2019 more than five years ago. Thus, Modi’s energy, Amit Shah’s strategy and
 Sangh’s synergy created a formidable combination to elevate the NaMo cult to new heights
in 2019.

7. Opposition – ambigious strategy, weak campaign

Yes, the role played by opposition parties too should be credited in the historic win for
Modi. The opposition lacked a narrative and looked completely confused, purposeless,
sectarian and divided. The mahagathbandhan was a move to contain Modi in UP on the
basis of sheer caste arithmetic with no programmatic alternative. The SP-BSP leadership
failed to understand that the Modi regime had already dented their old social base in a big
way and that the electorate did not approve of such cynical politics driven by arrogance and
ambition. Another key regional player, Mamata Banerjee, underestimated the inroads
Hindutva made and the appeal of the BJP’s accusations that she was practicising the ‘politics
of appeasement’. She put up a stiff resistance to Hindutva and West Bengal became a
bloody battle ground; besides, the verbal war between Modi and Mamata crossed all
civility. The Congress, under Rahul Gandhi’s leadership, tried to build a bold narrative to
counter Modi. He tried to pin down Modi on the Rafale deal, rising unemployment, farmers’
distress and autonomy of institutions. This failed miserably as the moribund party
organisation, factionalism, and a trying leadership were no match to Modi and the BJP.
For common people, Modi was seen as beyond corruption. Rahul’s ‘Chowkidar Chor Hai’
narrative, after initial ripples, did not click. Moreover, Modi’s retort was to attack the
Congress on all fronts for its past “misrule and misdeeds”: from dynastic rule to corruption
and Bofors. Never before has an Indian election seen such a polarised, shrill, aggressive and
ruthless campaign. While the prime minister did not mind lowering his dignity – being
indiscreet and personal in his attacks – the otherwise civil Rahul Gandhi repeatedly called
Modi a thief. Sadly, every norm and value antithetical to democracy was trampled in each
side’s pursuit of victory.

The above discussed points just a few reasons which led to the landslide victory of Modi led
BJP. There are many more causes which cannot be discussed here due to want of time and
space. Nevertheless, the victory is historic and surprising. No other Indian Prime Minister after
Indira Gandhi was able to do it. With the massive mandate received by the ruling dispensation
and the demoralised and fragmented opposition, India is in a cul-de-sac. The BJP must realise
that the mandate of 2019 elections is not for Hindutva. It is a mandate for Modi’s continued
leadership. Therefore, a great deal will now depend upon how mature, statesman-like and
balanced the responses of the leadership of the BJP itself are going to be, particularly where
issues pertaining to communal harmony, amity, and understanding are concerned.