JCIT-01796; No of Pages 9

Cities xxx (2017) xxx–xxx

Contents lists available at ScienceDirect

Cities

journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/cities

The development of urban shrinkage discourse and policy response in Japan

Keiro Hattori a,⁎, Kiyonobu Kaido b, Mihoko Matsuyuki c
a
Meijigakuin University, Tokyo, Japan
b
Meijo University, Gifu, Japan
c
Yokohama National University, Kanagawa, Japan

a r t i c l e i n f o

Article history:
Received 29 June 2016
Accepted 21 February 2017
Available online xxxx

© 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

1. Introduction In order to answer these questions, the authors began by surveying

the database of Japanese academic papers (CiNii)1 that included the
It has recently become apparent that “shrinking city” is a worldwide words “population shrinkage” in the abstract. Then, the authors
ongoing phenomenon, and Japan is no exception. As the framing article interpreted the findings from the survey by conducting literature re-
has shown, the features of urban shrinkage are interwoven with the so- views including newspaper articles. This information serves as the
cial, cultural, political and economic conditions and history of each starting point for our examination of the relationship between discourse
country. Those characteristics also affect the framing of each country's and policy regarding urban shrinkage.
discourse relating to the “shrinking city” proposition. In Japan, a country
with a strong central government where national policy tends to dom-
inate local policy, and where a single strong political party has con- 2. “Population shrinkage” and “urban shrinkage” in the literature
trolled the Diet for most of the years since World War II, shrinking city
discourse and policy tend to differ from that in Germany and the We counted the number of academic papers in the CiNii database
United States despite considerable similarity in the reality of shrinkage. using “population shrinkage” in the abstract (Fig. 1). The aim of the in-
This paper aims to examine how Japanese shrinking cities and the vestigation was to understand what kinds of keyword were associated
reality of population shrinkage have been interpreted and identified in with “population shrinkage”, especially to understand its relationship
the academic and public discourse, and how those interpretations to or lack of relationship to “urban shrinkage”. Fig. 1 shows that the
have been transferred to policy or vice versa, providing a framework overall “population shrinkage” discourse began to heat up after 2005,
for the comparative discussion of discourse and policy in Japan, reached an initial peak in 2006, declined from 2007 to 2011, and then
Germany and United States that appears in the following article. has reversed to increase sharply since 2011. This graph indicates that
The central research questions we explore are as follows: (1) How “population shrinkage” has become a major recent theme for aca-
did the discourse interpret and identify the reality of population shrink- demics; however, it should be noted that there have always been
age? (2) What kind of terminology has been used to address the some academic papers published long before 2000 regarding “popula-
phenomenon and how did terminology change over time? (3) What tion shrinkage”.
landmark events raised people's interest in urban shrinkage? (4) How
did the discourse and policy formulation affect each other? 1
CiNii (Scholarly and Academic Information Navigator) is a bibliographic database ser-
vice for material in Japanese academic libraries, especially focusing on Japanese works and
English works published in Japan. The database was founded in April 2005 and is main-
tained by the National Institute of Informatics. The service searches from within the data-
bases maintained by the NII itself [NII Electronic Library Service (NII-ELS) and Citation
⁎ Corresponding author. Database for Japanese Publications (CJP)], as well as the databases provided by the Nation-
E-mail address: hattorikeiro@mac.com (K. Hattori). al Diet Library of Japan, institutional repositories, and other organizations.

http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.cities.2017.02.011
0264-2751/© 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Please cite this article as: Hattori, K., et al., The development of urban shrinkage discourse and policy response in Japan, Cities (2017), http://
dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.cities.2017.02.011
2 K. Hattori et al. / Cities xxx (2017) xxx–xxx

700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0

1974-1970
1979-1975
1984-1980
1989-1985
1994-1990
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
1969 and before

Fig. 1. The number of academic papers that possessed “population shrinkage” in the abstract.
Source: CiNii, edited by the authors.

We then extracted nine keywords that we consider relevant to the and shifted over the past 50 years, and how they have affected the pol-
urban shrinkage discourse both with respect to the sheer number of pa- icies that were adopted.
pers and their importance and relevance to shrinkage policy. They are
“Urban and Shrinkage”, “Vacant House”, “Urban and Aging”, “Urban 3. Urban shrinkage in Japan
and Population Shrinkage”, “Pension Problem”, “Urban and Low Fertility
Rate”, “Kaso Problem”, “Urban and Disappearing”, and “Urban and De- Urban growth and development only became the norm after the end
clining Center” (refer Fig. 2). From Fig. 2, one can see that the focus of of Japan's closed-door policy, the economic isolation that took place from
scholarly discourse changed from the “Kaso Problem”2 in 1970s to the 17th to the middle of the 19th century. During the 200 years of the
“Aging Issues” from 1980s to 1990s, then “Declining Urban Center” Edo era (1639 to 1854), the era of seclusion, the population grew by
around 2000 to “Pension Problem” which peaked in 2004, then “Low only 0.07% per year. Japanese cities began to grow after the 1868 Meiji
Fertility Rate” in late 2000s. Only in the late 2000s did discussion of Restoration. With the exception of a few years during World War II,
“Urban Shrinking” and “Population Shrinkage in Urban Issues” become the population has increased steadily, growing from 34 million in 1868
common. However, it is the “Vacant House” topic that has emerged to nearly 128 million in 2004, an annual growth rate of 2.03% (See
most notably in the urban shrinking discourses after 2011. Fig. 4). Since then, the population has begun to decline, and many cities
As will be discussed in the rest of the paper, the investigation into have begun to lose population. According to the 2010 national census,
the literature, as well as our more detailed survey of literature and pol- 76% of all Japanese municipalities lost population from 2005 to 2010.
icy as they do or do not reflect the reality of changing population dy- There are no truly booming cities in Japan currently; Japan has no
namics, suggest that the past 50 years of discourse and policy can be equivalent to Hamburg or Munich in Germany, or Phoenix, Portland
summarized as being divided into four distinct phases: (1) sporadic dis- or, Houston in the United States. Even growing regions such as
cussion of shrinkage during the 1960s; (2) subordination of the urban Tokyo and Nagoya are projected to lose population in the near future.
shrinkage issue to other topics from the 1970s until the end of the However, shrinking areas are unevenly distributed. From a national
1990s; (3) emergence of shrinkage in the urban planning discourse; perspective, smaller cities in more remote regions; and from a regional
and (4) the publication of “Masuda Report” and the sudden rise of in- perspective, suburban areas, are losing the most population (Hattori,
tense anxiety over urban shrinkage in the most recent period. 2015). Recent declines in suburban populations have occurred even in
As will be explained later, shrinkage of certain regions had already the Tokyo area (Miura, 2012).
begun in 60s, and words to characterize these regions had been created.
However, after giving some attention to these shrinking regions, the dis- 4. Phase 1: the Kaso question and the sporadic discussion of
cussion of shrinkage became relatively dormant focusing instead on re- shrinkage in the 1960s
lated, but subordinated topics such as aging and pension problems.
From mid-2000, shrinkage as a major theme in the urban planning dis- Until the turn of the century, the discourse in Japan was not about
course began to emerge, influenced by the bankruptcy of Yubari munic- shrinkage but overpopulation.3 In 1974, the government issued a
ipality in 2007 and the publication of 2010 national census data white paper on population, which explicitly stated, “Overpopulation is
showing population loss for the first time since World War II. one of the largest problems that the country faces”.4 Although the rela-
Still, the discourse tended to be limited to relatively small academic tionship to the white paper is presumably coincidental, the total fertility
circles until recently, when Hiroya Masuda, former governor of Iwate rate of Japan began to drop sharply at that point, falling below 2.9 in
Prefecture, published “Vanishing Region (Chihou Shoumetsu)” in 1975 for the first time since the World War II. This drop became one
2014, which attracted national attention and became an instant best of the key reasons for the decline in the Japanese population.
seller. The key milestones with respect to discourse and policy, as well As Fig. 2 shows, urban shrinkage as such was not an issue in Japan
as key demographic data, are shown in the timeline in Fig. 3. The bal- until quite recently. However, some shrinking villages or ephemeral in-
ance of this paper will explore how these discourses have emerged dustrial towns had already appeared in the 1960s. Hashima, better
known as Gunkan-jima (Warship Island), a coal-mining island that
2 had a peak population of 5000 in 1960 was deserted in 1974. Yubetsu
Although not a literal translation, Kaso has been characterized as meaning, “severely
depopulating” or “excessively under populated” areas, referring to a community “that
3
has difficulty maintaining socio-economic life due to a sudden and large decrease of pop- Kito (2011), “2100 Nen, Jinko 3bun no ichi no Nihon”, Media Factory Shinsho, pp.34–35.
4
ulation”. (Imai (1968) “Nihon no Kasochitai (The Japanese Kaso Areas), Iwnami-shinsho, Ministry of Health and Wealfare (1974), “White paper on Population (Kousei
p.9). hakusho)”, Ohkurasho-Insatsukyoku, p.13.

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 K. Hattori et al. / Cities xxx (2017) xxx–xxx 3

300

250
Urban * Shrinking
200 Vacant House
Urban * Aging
150 Urban * Population Shrinkage
Pension Problem
100 Urban * Low Fertility Rate
Kaso Problem
50 Urban * Dissapearing
Urban * Declining Center
0
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
1974-1970
1979-1975
1984-1980
1989-1985
1994-1990
before 1969

Fig. 2. Number of academic papers published by keyword.

Source: CiNii edited by the author.

village in the eastern part of Hokkaido, also a coal-mining town, had a and in 1977. The first and second plans projected high population
peak population of 12,000 in 1950s, but by 2015 had dwindled to 500. growth. The third projected that the pace of population growth would
There was also a huge exodus of young people from rural regions, par- slow down, but that the nation's population would grow to 140 million
ticularly remote villages, to large cities in the 1960s. At the peak of by the beginning of 21st century, a great overestimate. While as Table 1
this decade, the Tokyo Metropolitan Region was seeing a net annual in- shows, the second and third plans acknowledged the Kaso phenome-
crease of 390,000 people. These changes led to an extended discussion non, it was considered to be an anomaly rather than either a significant
around the problem represented by these shrinking villages. The phe- national issue or a harbinger of future change.
nomenon was given the name of “Kaso” by the mayor of the town of The Kaso phenomenon is an ongoing one; however, shrinkage has
Hikimi-Cho, in Shimane Prefecture in the late 1960s. While the Kaso become less sporadic and more universal. The term “Kaso” is still used
issue appeared in some academic papers in the late 1960s (Ogata, often, but the discourse has shifted to more specific issues such as the
1967; Koga, 1967), it was not until the 1970s that a more systematic dis- measures being used to sustain Kaso communities, especially in the
course emerged in academic circles, in which issues such as forestry fields of transportation and medical services, or how to withdraw sup-
management and the lack of social infrastructure, including education port from Kaso areas.
and medical services, were raised.
The Kaso phenomenon also attracted considerable journalistic and
mass media attention. Journalist Nobuhiko Imai wrote a book entitled 5. Phase 2: subordination of the urban shrinkage discourse to
“The Japanese Kaso Areas (Nihon no Kasochitai)” in 1968 while other issues
Yoneyama published “Kaso Shakai” in 1969. These two were at the fore-
front of a modest genre of subsequent Kaso literature. The challenge of From the 1950s through the first half of the 1970s, the Japanese pop-
providing public education in depopulated regions became a major ulation was increasing at a rate of 1% annually. Population growth, how-
focus during the 1970s. Policies to address the Kaso phenomenon ever, began to decline after the late 1970s. The annual growth rate
followed the discourse. In 1970, a law to address the Kaso phenomenon during 1980 to 2010 was a mere 0.3%. The fourth national comprehen-
was enacted, entitled the “Kaso Areas Countermeasure Emergency sive plan, published in 1987, projected that the population would peak
Act”.5 The law initially had a ten-year sunset clause, but has been ex- in 2010 at around 128 million, quite accurate in that in reality, it reached
tended four times and is still in effect. These measures have had no mea- 128 million only two years earlier, in 2008. It also projected that the el-
surable effect on the trajectory of Kaso areas, but since the government derly population ratio (those over 65 to total population) would double
has yet to find any alternatives, they have continued to extend the Kaso within the next 30 years, while identifying the low fertility rate as an
Act. issue as well.6
As noted, as late as 1974, the Japanese government position was that Although government planners clearly foresaw the population
overpopulation was one of the greatest problems facing the country decline, there was little broad discussion of population loss as
(Ministry of Health and Wealfare 1974). During the 1960s and 1970s, such. While shrinkage as such was not yet an important part of the dis-
three national comprehensive plans were adopted, in 1962, in 1969, course – and was not yet seen as a critical public issue – two issues
(aging and fertility) had emerged in the discourse that were relevant
5
This act defined “Kaso Areas” as municipalities with a population loss of more than to the question of shrinkage and which laid the groundwork for the ex-
10% between 1960 and 1965, with a financial capability index, a measure used by the plicit shrinkage discourse that emerged in the 1990s.
Japanese government to compare municipal revenues and expenditures, under 0.4. In
1970, 776 out of 3280 municipalities were defined as Kaso areas. The act provided extra
funds to those municipalities to create facilities such as public day care centers or
6
firefighting facilities. It also allowed municipalities to issue bonds to build sewage facilities, National Land Agency, (1987), “Forth Comprehensive National Development Plan”
nurseries, libraries, roads and other facilities. (https://www.mlit.go.jp/common/001135927.pdf), pp.16–19.

Please cite this article as: Hattori, K., et al., The development of urban shrinkage discourse and policy response in Japan, Cities (2017), http://
dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.cities.2017.02.011
4 K. Hattori et al. / Cities xxx (2017) xxx–xxx

Fig. 3. The development of shrinking discourse and policy in Japan.

5.1. Aging population (Hisano, 1982), medical issues (Nasu, 1984), and creation of appropri-
ate environments for the elderly (Kensetsu Shichou Kenkyujo, 1983;
Japanese society became an “Aging Society” (defined by the World Yoshida, 1988). This discourse was reflected in the 1987 national com-
Health Organization as a society with more than 7% of its population prehensive development plan, which in turn disseminated these issues
65 years or older) (He & et al., 2016) for the first time in 1970. The widely to the general public. The number of academic papers addressing
first academic paper that discussed Japan's aging population appeared the issue of an aging population more than doubled in the 1990s, includ-
in 1970 (Endo, 1970), while a growing literature on the societal implica- ing the particular issues associated with the aging residents of new
tions of aging appeared during the late 1970s (Japan City Center, 1975; towns; that is, the planned suburban cities built since 1960s influenced
Social Security Laboratory, 1976; Endo, 1976; Nagamachi, 1977; Kadota by the British New Towns Act 1946. The 1990s also saw a rise in writing
et al., 1978; Mukaibou, 1979). It was after 1980s, however, that the dis- that focused on the positive side of aging, using the term “Yutaka” (af-
course regarding the aging of the population increased dramatically. fluent) to describe the “aging life stage” (Okamoto, 1989; Yashiro,
The number of papers that contained “aging (Koureika)” as a keyword 1990; Ministry of International Trade and Industry, 1991; Kahoku
was 31 in the 1970s, 1618 in the 1980s and 3962 in the 1990s. Many Newspaper, 1996; Yomiuri Newspaper, 1997).
of these papers explored future visions of an aging society and the issues The number of academic papers on the aging population nearly dou-
associated with an aging population, including the necessity of planning bled again in the 2000s from the preceding decade to 6481. While de-
cities to better accommodate older people (Mitsui Jouhou Kaihatsu Inc., pictions of a positive view of aging remained strong, focusing on the
1982; National Land Agency, 1998), pension and social security issues wealth and leisure time of the elderly, as well as their value to the

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 K. Hattori et al. / Cities xxx (2017) xxx–xxx 5

140,000 4.0
120,000 3.0
100,000
2.0
80,000
1.0
60,000
0.0
40,000
20,000 -1.0

0 -2.0

Japan Population, thousand

Japan DID Densely Inhabited District) population, thousand
Annual population growth rate %
Annual DID population growth rate %

Fig. 4. Historic and projected population change (1955–2060).

Source: National Census and National Institute of Population and Social Security Research.

market and in the workforce, some of the earlier euphoria had begun to (Shiikawa, 2002; Nakagaki, 2005) and family relationships (Hirohara,
fade. An aging population can create massive problems in a shrinking 2002). Papers that pointed out the heavy burdens on women raising
environment, as addressed by Sugita (2008), who attracted attention children as one of the reasons for low fertility rates led government to
with his discussion of the increasing lack of access by older people to place greater emphasis on child-supporting policies.7 While urban
shopping facilities, naming them “Kaimono Nanmin” (Shopping Refu- shrinkage as such was not addressed in the literature on aging or on
gees). In 2013, the share of the nation's population that was 65 years low fertility – and was not yet seen as a critical public issue –, these
or older reached 25.1%, the highest of any major nation (Germany is issues – and the highly visible discourse – laid the groundwork both
third at 21.2% and the United States share in 2015 was 14.9%). The for the inevitable population decline, the recognition of the effects of
year 2012 was seen as a transitional year in terms of aging, since the that decline in the form of shrinking cities and for the explicit shrinkage
baby boomer population (people who were born between 1947 and discourse that emerged in the 1990s.
1949) reached the age of 65. This cohort totals roughly 8 million, a
much larger number than either previous or succeeding generations. 6. Phase 3: shrinkage emerges in the urban planning discourse
This trend is an important reason that the discourse on aging is becom-
ing more intense (Mita, 2004; Miura, 2005; Takai, 2010). A discourse on urban shrinkage began to emerge in planning circles
in the 1990s, but was largely insignificant until 2000 as can be assumed
5.2. Low fertility from Fig. 2. In the 2000s, however, some planning concepts related to
urban shrinkage began to form a distinct discourse and some policies
In addition to the aging of the population, the low fertility rate be- in National Government level began to raise an issues regarding urban
came an increasing subject of discourse. While the first academic shrinkage The emerging awareness of Shrinking Cities as both an aca-
paper that discussed low fertility rates appeared in 1987 (Okada, demic subject and political issue reflected in part the influence of the
1987; Fujitani, 1987), 1989 saw the “1.57 shock” in mass media reports, discourse in other countries, most notably England and Germany
highlighting the fact that 1.57 was the lowest fertility rate in Japan since (Kaido, 2001; Ohno et al., 2008). While the relevant discourse in preced-
the country began collecting data. The 1990s saw growing attention to ing decades had focused on demographic changes, it now began to en-
the nation's low fertility rate. In 1992, a White Paper on the National compass and address physical environment and urban issues as well,
Lifestyle used the word “Shoushika” (Fewer Children Phenomenon) to including the emerging planning challenge represented by vacant hous-
describe the trend, reflecting growing public awareness of the issue. es. Thus, this section will discuss not only the larger shrinking city in
Shibayama drew parallels to European low fertility rates in 1993 urban planning discourse but also the distinct issue of vacant houses.
(Shibayama, 1993), while Komiya warned of the dangers associated
with the low fertility rate in 1995 (Komiya, 1995). Reflecting the grow- 6.1. The urban planning discourse
ing concern expressed in the discourse, the Ministry of Health, Labor
and Welfare announced policies to support child-raising (the Angel As Fig. 2 suggests, there was little more than sporadic discussion of
Plan) in 1994, followed by a report on the low fertility rate and shrink- urban shrinkage until 2000. Shrinkage was not recognized as a spatial
ing population in 1998, and by the New Angel Plan in 1999. Prominent issue, in contrast to issues such as low fertility, aging of population,
economists also began to address this issue (Yashiro, 1999; Shimada, and the risk of collapse of the national pension system. It was only
2000). after the publication of the 2010 National Census, which documented
The number of academic papers regarding the low fertility rate in- the reality of overall national population decline for the first time
creased sharply in the 2000s. The number of papers that contained since the end of World War II that a sustained discourse linking popula-
“low fertility rate (Shoushika)” as a keyword was 786 in 1990s and tion loss to urban shrinkage began to emerge.
3136 in 2000s. Demographers addressed this issue extensively
(Ohbuchi et al., 2004, 2005; Kosaki et al., 2012), including articulating 7
Cabinet Office (2013), “Shoushikashakai Taisaku Hakusho (White Paper on Fewer
issues associated with low fertility rates such as social security Children Society)”, Ohkurasho.

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6 K. Hattori et al. / Cities xxx (2017) xxx–xxx

Table 1
Number of pages and words of “Kaso” appeared in three national comprehension plans.
Source: Survey by the authors.

Year published Number of appearance of the word “Kaso” Number of pages the word “Kaso” appeared
(total words number) (total page)

First National Comprehension Plan 1962 0 0

Second National Comprehension Plan 1969 6 (88,764) 4 (80)
Third National Comprehension Plan 1977 14 (124,657) 10 (106)

The first academic paper that discussed urban shrinkage in an urban which has sought to strengthen its communal structure by building on
planning discourse was on the subject of inner city population loss that its local identity.
appeared in 1978 (Aoki et al., 1978). As depicted in Fig. 2, the number of Some academic papers have discussed the phenomenon of shrink-
academic papers related to “inner city population loss” peaked age in suburban communities. A forerunner was Moriyuki Ooe, an
(although the peak itself was small) in 2000, but gradually declined, authority on population projection, who published a paper on the
being overtaken by overall urban shrinkage issues. Unlike in United shrinkage of population in suburban settings in 2002 (Ooe, 2002).
States, the issue in the 1970s was not that of the “urban crisis”, as Takiko Fujii, Ooe's former student, explored the criteria used by
Mallach discusses in his paper in this special section, but about out- second-generation suburban residents to decide whether to stay in
migration driven by high housing costs. This issue soon became irrele- the community or not (Fujii et al., 2006). Urban sociologist Atsushi
vant, since after the collapse of the bubble economy in the early Miura addressed the shrinking suburbs problem in several of his
1990s, people had begun to leave the suburbs and repopulate the books (Miura, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2015) while architects such as
inner cities. Unlike the United States or the new Federal States in eastern Mikan-Gumi, Baba, Aoki and others discussed the loss of population in
Germany after reunification, Japanese suburbs have lost population suburban areas, and proposed measures to ease the situation, particu-
faster than the inner cities in recent years. Thus, the discourse shifted larly with respect to large housing estates (Mikan-Gumi, 2001; Baba,
to focus more on “shrinking suburbs” rather than “abandoned inner 2009; Aoki, 2011, 2013; NPO Danchi Saisei Kenkyukai, 2006, 2009,
cities”, as discussed later. 2012, 2015). The issue moved from the academic to the popular sphere,
In 1996, the City Planning Institute of Japan featured “Urban and Re- as novels on the theme of shrinking or aging suburbs began to appear,
gional Planning under Shrinking Population and Structural Household the most famous of which may be Shigematsu (1998), which was nom-
Change” as a special issue of its journal. This appears to have been the inated for the prominent Naoki Prize. A sequel was published in 2001,
first time that an academic institution directly addressed the effect of and it was made into a TV drama that same year. Hisayuki Sugiura
population loss on urban society. However, it was not until late 2000s wrote a play for the Gekidan Bungaku-za, a major theatrical company,
that academic papers began to address the urban issues with population about the struggle of a retired businessman who tries to redefine him-
loss. self in a shrinking and aging suburban community, while Kakiya Miu
Beginning in the late 1980s, the Japanese government began to look wrote, “Setting Sun in Newtown” in Kakiya, 2013, a story of a family's
at the shrinkage problem. However, it looked at population shrinkage as struggle to deal with renovating an old condominium. While these
a macro or national problem rather than micro or municipal; that is books and plays focus on specific human dramas, rather than addressing
urban, problem. For the national government, the issue was the popula- larger issues regarding urban shrinkage, they significantly expand the
tion shift from small and medium-sized cities to large cities, especially reach of the shrinking city discourse by making it a central part of the
Tokyo. Population loss at the local level was not seen as a problem in it- physical environment affecting the human condition in contemporary
self but a problem in creating imbalance in the population distribution Japan.
at the national scale. The Fourth National Comprehensive Development Within the field of urban planning, several academic papers in the
Plan was published in 1987. It was clear by this point that population 1990s began to address the “compact city” concept; that is, the reconfig-
growth would slow down; as a result, the plan proposed to redistribute uration of spread cities into more compact form around nodes and pub-
the population across the country.8 The national comprehensive plan, lic transportation routes, but it was only after 2000 that this became a
however, had little influence over actual development trends. In 1991, major topic of academic discourse. The compact city concept did not
the Urban Planning Central Council called for integrating the two issues flow directly from the issue of population shrinkage, but emerged
of over-concentration of population in Tokyo and the exodus of younger more from an environmental planning perspective.11 Attention to the
generations from rural regions. In 1997, the Council issued an interim compact city concept grew with the publication of “Compact City” in
report which argued that population growth would come to an end in 2001 by Kaido (2001), building on the European framework of compact
the near future.9 The Social Infrastructure Development Central Council, cities. After its publication, a number of municipalities and regions
which replaced the Urban Planning Central Council, issued a report en- began to create comprehensive plans based on the concept of the Com-
titled “Urban Renewal Vision”, in 2003, in which it explicitly stated that pact City (Yamamoto, 2006 on Aomori City, Tujimoto, 2009 on Toyama
“From now on, our cities will experience urban shrinkage for the first City). In 2006, the City Planning Act and the Central City Invigoration
time”.10 While most statements by local government about shrinkage Law were both amended to incorporate the compact city concept as a
have remained at the conceptual level, and have not led to actual con- future-planning model in the emerging era of population shrinkage. In
crete policies, some local initiatives have emerged that try to address 2014, the City Planning Act and Urban Renewal Limited Measure Act
urban shrinkage. Two such examples are Obuse in Nagano prefecture, was also amended to allow municipalities to promote more compact
which partnered with a private company, Obuse-do, to draw invest- urban structure frameworks.12
ment to revive the downtown area, and Gujo City in Gifu prefecture, Although it was not until 2003 that urban shrinkage was first explic-
itly addressed by the Urban Planning Central Council, it is not that gov-
8
National Land Agency (1987), “Forth Comprehensive National Development Plan” ernment did not recognize the existence of urban shrinking issues.
(https://www.mlit.go.jp/common/001135927.pdf), pp.4–5. Indeed, as discussed earlier, these issues had already been identified in
9
Kitazaki, Tomoki (2010), “Toshisaisei kara Toshi no Datsukouchiku no Jidai he
(Shifting from Urban Regeneration to Urban Restructuring)” Nomura Research Institute
11
Public Management Review (78), p.1. Kaido, Kiyonobu (2007), “Planning and Designing Compact City” Gakugei
10
Social Infrastructure Development Central Council (2003), “Urban Renewal Vision” Shuppansha.
12
(http://www.mlit.go.jp/kisha/kisha03/04/041224/01.pdf) p.4. Aiba Shin (2015), “Toshi wo Tatamu (Folding Cities)” Kaden-Sha, p.131.

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 K. Hattori et al. / Cities xxx (2017) xxx–xxx 7

the fourth national comprehensive development plan in 1987. Howev- 7. Phase 4: the shocks of Yubari, the 2010 census and the
er, incorporating a shrinking cities strategy into the political agenda in Masuda Report
Japan is quite difficult for several reasons. First, unlike the United
States, national law governs urban planning law. The autonomy of mu- Population shrinkage is not a new issue. However, it was only after
nicipal government is much more limited in Japan than in the United the turn of the century that population shrinkage came to be seen as
States; local government lacks even the authority to rule on such a an important issue in the field of national planning as well as local
local matter as whether to close its high school or keep it open. There- urban planning. In 2000, Fujimasa and Furukawa wrote a book entitled
fore, shrinking planning strategy falls almost entirely to national gov- “Welcome, Society with Shrinking Population”, arguing cogently for the
ernment. These constraints on local government and on local activism positive side of population decline (Fujimasa & Furukawa, 2000). Later
discourage a strong urban shrinking discourse. Second, despite the real- that decade, however, changes significantly raised the profile of shrink-
ity of shrinkage, people tend to resist changing the growth paradigm age, both in the discourse and as a matter demanding policy attention.
and giving up the rights associated with it, something one sees with re- The change from phase 3 to phase 4 thus describes less a change of sub-
spect to nuclear power policy in Japan as well. These reasons may ac- stance but more the intensification of the shrinking city discourse.
count for why the discourse on urban shrinkage was dormant for so In 2007, a shocking event changed the picture. Yubari, a coal-mining
long, even as a robust discourse on closely related topics such as popu- city in Hokkaido that reached a peak population of 116,908 in 1960, went
lation aging and the low fertility rate was taking place. bankrupt in 2007, the first and still the only municipal bankruptcy in
Japan to this date. At one time, Yubari flourished as one of the most im-
portant coal-mining centers in Japan. The first mine closed in 1973. Other
6.2. Vacant housing mines followed suit, and all the mines were closed in 1990. The city gov-
ernment at the time invested heavily in an attempt to convert the mining
Housing vacancy is an important characteristic of shrinking cities, as town to a tourist center, building a ski resort, amusement parks, and
well as an important outcome of urban shrinkage. According to 2013 museums.17 Most of these attempts failed and the city's population de-
government data, there are 8.2 million vacant houses or 13.5% of the clined sharply, reaching a low of 9058 in 2015, for a loss of 92% of the
total housing stock in Japan, compared to only 2.5% in 1963. The vacancy population in 55 years. The bankruptcy of Yubari was a major scandal,
rate varies widely among regions. Yamanashi prefecture has the highest drawing people's attention to population shrinkage. Another shock
rate with 17. 2% while Miyagi prefecture has the lowest rate with 9.1% wave was provided by the results of the National Census of 2010. For
(Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications, Housing and Land the first time since World War II, a national census showed a decline in
Statistics, 2013). This figure is unusually high from worldwide perspec- population from the previous census. While experts had long expected
tive. In 2013, the apartment vacancy rate of prosperous German cities this population turnaround, the evidence that it was now a reality
such as Munich and Hamburg was 0.6% and 0.7% respectively, while in prompted its examination to emerge in sudden, almost panicky fashion.
eastern Germany, the overall vacancy rate is 6.5% (excluding Berlin), However, the biggest awakening call came from Hiroya Masuda, a
and the city with the highest vacancy rate is Salzgitter (11.7%) followed former Minister for Internal Affairs and Communication and former
by Chemnitz (10.4%).13 These numbers are high, but compared to governor of Iwate Prefecture. He led a team of researchers that pub-
Japanese figures they are quite low. Similarly, the vacancy rate in the lished the so-called “Masuda Report” in May 8, 2014, in which he coined
United States is 7.3% (excluding vacation homes), which is also much the term “municipalities at risk of vanishing” (“shometsu kanosei toshi”
lower than that of Japan.14 The difference in the rental vacancy rate be- in Japanese). The report made a dramatic impact throughout Japan with
tween Japan and United States, which is 18.8% in Japan and 6.8% in its prediction that almost half of municipalities in the nation might
United States, is stark.15 Despite the abundance of vacant housing, “vanish” due to population decline and an inability to maintain admin-
new construction in Japan has continued at high levels; 8.2 units per istrative functions (Japan for Sustainability News Letter, No.154, 2015).
1000 people annually from 2002 to 2014, compared to 4.3 in the Major newspapers featured this report in articles after its release. For
United States and 2.6 in Germany 2.6 during the same period.16 example, Asahi Newspaper had written 232 related articles using the
In contrast to the absence of an explicit discourse of urban shrinkage, by keywords SHOMETSU KANOUSEI TOSHI through November of 2016.
discussion of housing vacancy has been going on since 2000. Academic Masuda expanded his discourse by publishing several books follow-
papers on vacant housing began to appear around 2000, but the number ing the report including “Chihou Shoumetsu (Vanishing Regions),
began to increase sharply after 2010 as the issue became more publicly 22/08/14” (Masuda, 2014), “Chihou Shoumetsu to Toukyou Rouka
visible. Papers explored the geographic distribution and quantification (Vanishing Regions and Aging of Tokyo), 19/06/15” Masuda et al.,
of vacant houses. The journalist Yoko Kishimoto published “Vacant 2015a, “Chihou Shoumetsu, Sousei Senryaku-hen (Vanishing Regions,
House Reuse Tour” (Kishimoto, 2010), while a number of books ad- Strategies for Regenerating Region), 25/08/15” Masuda et al., 2015b.
dressing the social problems associated with vacant housing began to Several publications have since appeared both challenging and
appear beginning in 2014 (Nagashima, 2014; Nakagawa, 2015). supporting Masuda's assertions. Yamashita criticized it on the grounds
The first municipal ordinance to manage the vacant housing issue that identifying regions that would vanish would accelerate an
was enacted in the city of Tokorozawa in 2010. The number of munici- already-negative situation (Yamashita, 2014), while Odagiri provides a
palities with such ordinances grew to 288 by April 2014. Late in 2014, different and more positive view of remote regions, questioning the
the national government enacted the Vacant House Property Manage- validity of the report's premises (Odagiri, 2014).
ment Limited Measure Act, authorizing municipalities to order property Academic discourse rarely used the term Shometsu (vanishing) until
owners to demolish blighting vacant houses, and to demolish them di- the Masuda Report appeared. Masuda did not, of course, discover the
rectly if necessary. Vacant housing is now firmly on the radar of “inconvenient truth” of regional and urban shrinkage. The academic pa-
Japanese public discourse and policy. pers using the keywords “urban and shrinkage” began to increase after
2007, and those that use the keywords “urban and population decrease”
began to increase after 2008. Thus, the recognition of urban shrinkage
13
http://www.refire-online.com/features/markets/new-study-highlights-sinking- clearly preceded the Masuda Report. The report, however, clearly gener-
german-vacancy-rates/ (Retrieved, 13/01/17). ated a growing sense of crisis and urgency. In addition to Masuda's cre-
14
Kobayashi (2015), “Characteristics of Japanese housing market compared to that of dentials, it is likely that a major reason that the report received such
Europe and U.S. (Oubei to no Hikaku ni okeru Nihon no Juutaku Shijou no Tokuchou” in
Kihou Juutaku Kinyuu (34), Juutaku Kinyuu Sien Kiko, p.42.
15 17
ibid, p.42. Hattori, Keiro (2006), “Jinkoshukusho Jidai no Machidukuri (Town Planning in the Era
16
ibid, p.40. of Population Shrinkage),” Monthly Koumei (December 2006).

Please cite this article as: Hattori, K., et al., The development of urban shrinkage discourse and policy response in Japan, Cities (2017), http://
dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.cities.2017.02.011
8 K. Hattori et al. / Cities xxx (2017) xxx–xxx

great attention was its use of terminology. Shometsu, or vanishing is a cities was similarly distorted, although for radically different reasons. Fi-
very strong word to use to describe urban shrinkage, dramatizing nally, the unitary nature of the Japanese political system is seen as a sig-
what can be considered the worst-case scenario of urban shrinkage. nificant constraint on the translation of discourse into policy and action,
By emphasizing use of this word to characterize the urban shrinkage sit- because of its inability to accommodate the distinct regional focus that
uation, it changed the nature of the discourse, raised the level of concern has been such a central theme of shrinking city policy in both Germany
by general public as well as by politicians and policy makers. This report and the United States. All of these themes are addressed in greater detail
has put the problem of shrinking cities onto the political agenda as well in the comparative paper that concludes this special section.
as inspiring a more robust academic discourse. The debate Masuda ini-
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dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.cities.2017.02.011
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Please cite this article as: Hattori, K., et al., The development of urban shrinkage discourse and policy response in Japan, Cities (2017), http://
dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.cities.2017.02.011