Global Market Forecast

2003-2022

December 2003

The Airbus Global Market Forecast may also be found on the Internet at http://www.airbus.com

AIRBUS S.A.S. 31707 BLAGNAC CEDEX, FRANCE REFERENCE CB 390.0008/02 DECEMBER 2003 PRINTED IN FRANCE AIRBUS S.A.S. 2003 ALL RIGHTS RESERVED AN EADS JOINT COMPANY WITH BAE SYSTEMS

The statements made herein do not constitute an offer. They are based on the assumptions shown and are expressed in good faith. Where the supporting grounds for these statements are not shown the Company will be pleased to explain the basis thereof.

Contents :
1. Forecast highlights 2. Introducing the Global Market Forecast 3. Impact of the crisis 4. Demand for air travel 5. Air transport operational evolution 6. Passenger fleet renewal 7. World passenger fleet development 8. Demand for passenger aircraft deliveries: Mainline single-aisles Small twin-aisles Intermediate twin-aisles Large aircraft 9. Air cargo forecast Appendices A. Airlines & cargo carriers studied B. Detailed passenger traffic forecast C. Detailed passenger fleet forecast D. Detailed cargo traffic forecast E. Freighter fleet forecast 46 50 53 55 58 4 8 10 13 17 19 21 23 26 28 30 32 35

Global Market Forecast 2003

1. Forecast highlights
This edition of the Airbus Global Forecast covers the evolution through 2022 of the fleet of mainline passenger jets with at least 100 seats and freighters operated by airlines outside the Commonwealth of Independent States. Following the rapid termination of major conflict in Iraq, the faster-thanexpected recovery from the SARS outbreak should open the way to a rapid worldwide recovery of air travel, which has been severely affected by these events. Even as traffic recovers, creating a need for additional capacity, airline revenues eroded by deep price discounting are likely to lag. Nevertheless the potential for further growth in demand for air travel, especially among citizens of the developing world, is such that, absent another major crisis, Airbus forecasters continue to predict a bright long-term future for the civil aircraft manufacturing and support industries. Increasing cost and competitive pressures, generated partly by a new generation of aggressive no-frills carriers, are driving airlines to consolidate their networks so as to exploit economies of scale, minimise environmental impact and provide smaller communities with more service choices. Despite the impact of the worst crisis ever suffered by the worlds airlines, carriers have continued to place orders for the very large and economical A380, reflecting a vote of confidence not just in this exciting new aircraft but also in the very future of air transport itself. The major predictions of the 2003 GMF are that during the period 20032022 :

Worldwide demand for air travel will grow strongly

After three years of negative or at the best weak growth triggered by the current crisis, traffic will rebound powerfully to resume a more normal growth trend averaging just over 5% per year. Traffic growth will vary substantially between different air travel markets. Some - including the US domestic market - have matured, but revenue passenger-kilometres (RPKs) will grow strongly on routes serving the dynamic Asia-Pacific region as well as on those operated by low-cost no-frills airlines. By 2022 global RPKs will be at two-&-twothirds times their current level. During the same period freight tonnekilometres (FTKs) will more than triple, growing at a strong average annual 5.7%;

Price will remain the #1 demand driver

Until recently, air travel demand has been driven largely by convenience. But in the harsh new airline world travellers (or those who buy their tickets) now base their travel decisions primarily on price. In response, airline managers have modified their route networks in such a way as to improve efficiency, and the total number of city-pairs served by mainline jets has stagnated. This has established a clear trend for the future;

Global Market Forecast 2003

Forecast highlights

The capacity of both passenger and freighter aircraft will more than double
The number of seats in service will increase from 1,944,992 to 4,527,891 while the capacity of the active dedicated freighter fleet will increase from 75,630 to 196,948 tonnes;

The airlines will offer more seats per flight

Infrastructure capacity constraints mean that the numbers of flights will be unable to keep pace with the growth of traffic. Consequently average seats per departure will have to increase from 163 to 200;

The number of flights offered on passenger routes will double

Despite current levels of congestion and delays, this represents a more rapid rise than in the past, and will present a major challenge to the worlds airports and air traffic management systems. If the infrastructure proves unable to accommodate so many flights, airlines will have to acquire larger aircraft;

The active passenger fleet will increase by 90%

To provide the required increase in departures, the number of passenger aircraft in service will increase from 10,789 to 20,554;

40% of the current active fleet will be retired from commercial service
Having already stored many of their superfluous aircraft, airlines will still retire 4,914 of their older, noisier and less efficient passenger and cargo jets;

The world jetliner fleet will grow by more than 11,500 aircraft
15,632

Delivered 16,463

831

Passenger Fleet
Recycled 3,197
3,848

Converted 2,019 Retired 4,914

Freighter Fleet

Traffic growth and fleet renewal will require delivery of 15,632 new passenger aircraft
Almost two thirds of these will be single-aisle types in nominal size categories from 100 to 210 seats;

1,066

Global Market Forecast 2003

Forecast highlights

North America first in fleet size, Europe first in deliveries

The frequency-driven airlines of North America will continue to operate more aircraft than all other regions airlines, but less mature markets will grow more strongly and the airlines of Europe will take the greatest number of deliveries;

Nearly 16,500 new aircraft will be delivered

20-year deliveries
Mainline single-aisle aircraft like the Airbus A318, A319, A320 and A321 Small twin-aisle aircraft like the Airbus A330-200 Intermediate twin-aisle aircraft like the Airbus A330-300 and A340 Very large and economical aircraft like the Airbus A380 Total aircraft 10,184 1,782 2,962 1,535 16,463

Asia-Pacific airlines will dominate the market for large aircraft

By 2022 60% of the world fleet of very large passenger aircraft will be operated by the airlines of the AsiaPacific region alone;

The 16,463 new passenger aircraft and freighters represent a business volume of approximately $1.6 trillion*
The largest volume of business will be generated by single-aisle aircraft. Large passenger aircraft and freighters will account for almost 20% of the total business ;

The active world freighter fleet will grow to 3,283 aircraft with an average capacity of 60 tonnes from 1,499 aircraft with an average 50.4 tonnes capacity
This increase of 1,784 aircraft, coupled with the need to retire 1,066 aircraft when they reach the end of their lives, will create a need for acquisition of a total of 2,850 freighters, of which 831 will be factory-built freighters and 2,019 passenger-to-freighter conversions;

A business worth $1.6 trillion

2003 $ (billion)
700 600 500 400 300

640

440 339 196

200 100 0 Mainline singleaisle Small twin-aisle Intermediate twinaisle Large aicraft

40%

12%

27%

21%

* Terminology used throughout this report: billion = 109, trillion = 1012

Global Market Forecast 2003

Forecast highlights

Top Ten end-user nations

Passenger aircraft delivered 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. United States Peoples Republic of China United Kingdom Germany Japan Canada France Brazil Spain Italy 5,211 1,530 1,115 853 682 514 485 464 411 380 By $ value (billion) United States Peoples Republic of China United Kingdom Japan Germany France Republic of Korea Canada Singapore Brazil 388.5 175.5 113.3 95.5 77.4 52.0 46.7 44.9 43.9 42.5

The greatest demand for passenger aircraft will come from airlines in the United States, the Peoples Republic of China and the United Kingdom
Almost half of all the new passenger aircraft delivered, accounting for 45% of the total dollar value, will be needed by airlines in these three nations alone.

Key forecast parameters

Passenger a/c 100 seats and above World RPKs (billion) World ASKs (billion) Number of aircraft Number of installed seats Number of departures (000) Seats per departure Average flight distance (km) Block hours per aircraft per year

End 2002 3,165.7 4,514.2 10,789 1,944,992 15,864.8 163 1,437 3,450

End 2022 8,473.1 11,407.3 20,554 4,527,891 31,510.0 200 1,516 3,739

Key forecast parameters attest the reasonableness of the forecasts results

To facilitate understanding of the GMF and comparison with other forecasts, the table presents the values of eight key parameters at the beginning and end of the forecast period. From these, the corresponding values of other operational parameters (such as average speed and size) can be easily derived. These numbers and the relationships between them also give a useful test of the reasonableness of this (or any other) forecasts results.

Global Market Forecast 2003

2. Introducing the Global Market Forecast

The 2003 edition of Airbus Global Market Forecast (GMF) predicts the numbers and capacities of passenger jets and dedicated freighters that will be needed to accommodate traffic growth and allow fleet renewal by airlines and cargo carriers outside the Commonwealth of Independent States during the twenty-year period 20032022. Recognising the potential business opportunity represented by the airlines of the CIS, Airbus continues to work towards developing a reliable forecast for these airlines, and looks forward to including it in future editions of the GMF. categories and contribute seats to each on a basis inversely proportional to its distance from that category. A 160seat A320, for example, would contribute 96 (60%) of its seats to the 150-seater category and 64 (40%) of its seats to the 175-seater category. This ensures that at every point in the forecast the numbers of aircraft exactly match the projected flight frequencies, and the numbers of seats provide exactly the forecast capacity. Freighters are assigned to the different categories according to their payload/range capability.

The GMF is a bottomup forecast of pure demand for aircraft in 18 size categories.

The GMF is a bottomup forecast

In order to avoid the errors inherent in calculating from global averages, the GMF projects the year-by-year evolution of passenger traffic, flight frequencies and aircraft capacity on each of a total of 9,188 individual one-way airport-pair route sectors in 140 distinct domestic, regional and intercontinental submarkets. Similar projections are made for a total of 145 directional air cargo submarkets. These route-by-route projections are then consolidated into the regional and global fleet forecasts presented in this summary document.

Demand is forecast in 14 passenger categories

Mainline single-aisle (100-, 125-, 150-, 175- & 210-seaters (1)) Small twin-aisle (250-seaters) Intermediate twin-aisle (300-, 350& 400-seaters) Large (450-, 500-, 600-, 800- & 1,000-seaters)

The GMF is a pure forecast of demand

It projects demand for aircraft and seats in a total of 14 neutral seating and four neutral cargo capacity categories. These may be thought of as buckets of seats (or tonnes of lift). Any particular passenger aircraft, with its own specific seating arrangement, will fall between two

This category covers the majority of mainline single-aisle aircraft, although at the bottom part of the forecast some demand will be satisfied by 90+-seater regional jets.

(1)

Global Market Forecast 2003

Introducing the Global Market Forecast

The GMF applies this approach to the active jet fleets of a total of 407 individual passenger airlines and 150 cargo carriers.

The GMF covers 407 passenger airlines

North Am erica 43 airlines 4,269 aircraft Europe 156 airlines 2,942 aircraft Middle East 13 airlines 297 aircraft

and in 4 freighter categories

Latin Am erica & Caribbean 49 airlines 737 aircraft Africa 57 airlines 378 aircraft

Asia-Pacific 89 airlines 2,166 aircraft

2002 active passenger fleet = 10,789 aircraft (100 seats and above)

Feeder : payload < 30 tonnes (typically 22 tonnes) Regional : payload 30-60 tonnes (typically 45 tonnes) Long-range : payload 30-80 tonnes (typically 60 tonnes) Large : payload > 80 tonnes (typically 120/110 tonnes, new/converted) These airlines and cargo carriers, grouped into six consolidated geographical regions, are listed in Appendix A. The regions in this summary are groupings of the subregions listed in IATA reports. Individual forecasts are developed for the 278 larger airlines, and the GMF also includes a less detailed forecast at the lower end of the passenger market, covering a total of 129 smaller airlines. This allows a better understanding of the potential market penetration by aircraft like the widebody single-aisle 100-seater A318, and increases the number of airlines covered by the GMF to 407 which between them account for 96% of total world mainline capacity.

and 150 freighter operators

North America 43 operators 978 freighters*

Europe 29 operators 214 freighters*

Middle East 7 operators 11 freighters*

Latin America & Caribbean 21 operators 67 freighters*

Africa 21 operators 51 freighters*

Asia-Pacific 29 operators 178 freighters*

2002 active freighter fleet = 1,499 freighters

* freighter domiciled in its last operators region

Global Market Forecast 2003

3. Impact of the crisis

This summary of the GMF provides results only for the long term
It presents Airbus vision of how the worlds air transport system will have evolved by 2022. However following recent events it would not be complete without some comment on the anticipated impact of the crisis. Historical precedents are of limited use in assessing the extent and timing of the recovery in demand for air travel to be expected after the unprecedented sequence of events which has occurred during the past three years, including the dot.com collapse, the terrorist attacks in the US and elsewhere, the Afghan and Iraq conflicts and the SARS epidemic. However by studying the pattern of recovery following previous crises notably that following the previous Iraq war and reviewing the evolution of successful efforts to contain the SARS virus, Airbus forecasters have developed their prediction of the likely profile of the subsequent recovery. As inputs to its traffic growth models Airbus uses projections of economic growth and other indices supplied by the Global Insight (previously DRIWEFA) Forecasting Group. Following the crises of 2001 and 2003, Global Insights projected longterm growth rates have in general changed very little from the levels they were predicting prior to 2001. The question is to what extent, and how rapidly, will demand for air travel climb back to the previously forecast levels. Some loss appears inevitable, as more irksome security measures at airports, especially in the USA, have diverted very short haul passengers to other modes of transport, and business travellers (or, rather, those who make their travel decisions) as well as leisure travellers have become increasingly sensitive to the price of the ticket. This has led airlines the world over to discount their prices in an effort to stimulate demand, and yields have suffered accordingly. At the same time travellers increasing sensitivity to price has contributed to the gains in market share obtained by a new generation of aggressive low-cost carriers at the expense of the traditional full-service airlines. In response to these increasingly severe cost pressures and competition, airlines are being driven even further to improve the efficiency of their route networks and to use low-unitcost aircraft. The question is to what extent, and how rapidly, will demand for air travel climb back to the previously forecast levels.

The crisis will shift long-term demand by one & a half years
World annual traffic - trillion RPK 1.5 years
8

ICAO total traffic GMF 2000

GMF 2003

3.3 years
2

0 1990 2000 2010 2020

10

Global Market Forecast 2003

Impact of the crisis

The residual impact of the crises will delay traffic recovery to precrisis (i.e. 2000) levels
Airbus forecasters predict that total world revenue passenger-kilometres (RPKs) carried by major airlines in 2003 will be as much as 7% below those carried in 2000. Still, the markets worst affected by the Iraq war and the SARS epidemic in 2003 have accumulated a huge pent-up demand which will inevitably trigger a very strong traffic recovery during the next two years. As the world economy recovers intensifying airline competition with more efficient aircraft will make air travel affordable by more and more people. The resurgence of the pent-up demand combined with a much more favourable climate will drive the industry into an exceptional shortterm growth period and the GMF anticipates that world RPKs will increase by 15% from 2003 to 2004, and by 9% from 2004 to 2005.

The SARS epidemic, too, has changed peoples perception of air travel
The collapse in travel demand has been a psychological, not a medical, phenomenon, so traffic will take a while to recover even after all WHO travel advisories have been lifted. However, historical evidence shows that demand for air travel is extraordinarily resilient, and Airbus forecasters anticipate that, with demand stimulated by heavy price discounting, the impact of the Iraq war will continue to be felt over no more than a one-year period while the impact of SARS will last for two years. Thereafter - absent any other catastrophes - traffic will resume its historical growth path.

Growth will be particularly strong in travel to and from Asia

The GMF predicts that Asia-US RPKs will grow by 23% from 2003 to 2004 and by 18% from 2004 to 2005, while Asia-Europe traffic will increase by 26% and 20% respectively. But even with such a powerful rebound, world RPKs will not recover to their precrisis 2000 levels before some time in 2004, representing an observed shift in the near-term air travel demand curve to the right by some 3.3 years.

Global Market Forecast 2003

11

Impact of the crisis

After this strong rebound, global passenger traffic will follow a more normal long-term growth trend, with growth averaging marginally more than 5.0% per year over the twentyyear period 2002-2022. Comparisons with Airbus previous forecast of 4.7% per year growth from 2000 to 2020 are distorted by the actual reduction in world RPKs between 2000 and 2002. In fact, the previous forecast showed average RPK growth of 5.2% from 2002 to 2020, compared with 5.1% for the same period in the latest forecast; Airbus forecasters estimate that the events of 2003 will effectively reduce long-term growth in air travel by approximately 0.1% per year. Airbus current forecast of world RPKs in 2020 is 5.9% lower than its previous projection, representing a long-term loss due to the crisis of 1.5 years traffic growth. Especially in the US, more irksome security procedures and stricter control of travel expenditure have caused a reduction in travel volume that will never be recovered.
Long-term passenger traffic growth rates compared The highlight number is up, but the growth forecast is in fact slightly down
GMF 2002
RPKs (trillions) 3,264.2 3,340.2 4.7% 5.2% 8,255.0 2020 2022 5.1% 5.0% 7,769.8 (-5.9%) 8,473.4 2000 2002 3,165.7 (-5.2%)

GMF 2003
RPKs (trillions)

Airfreight traffic has been hit by the crisis less than passenger traffic
Air cargo has been less affected by the crisis than passenger traffic. Because airfreight has become such an important driver of industrial growth, Airbus believes the cargo market will recover strongly, and that in the longer term the air cargo transport system will prove to have benefited from the accelerated retirement of older, inefficient and noisy aircraft triggered by the crisis. Global Insights current long-term forecasts of import and export volumes are generally more optimistic than their forecasts issued in 2002. Consequently, Airbus has increased its predicted 20-year average annual freight tonne-kilometre (FTK) growth rate by one quarter of a percentage point.

12

Global Market Forecast 2003

4. Demand for air travel

History shows that demand for air travel is remarkably resilient
Although some markets have largely matured the prospects for long-term air travel growth remain bright; especially in developing markets. The current usage of air transport by the citizens of India and the PRC is respectively just 1% and 2% of that by citizens of the US. Air travel worldwide will continue to grow strongly as the wealth of these developing nations grows and it becomes affordable by more and more of their huge populations. In particular more and more travel decisions are now based on the availability of tickets at an affordable price. This has been brilliantly exploited by a new generation of low-cost carriers so that the fullservice airlines now find themselves under unprecedented cost pressures. This will have profound implications both for the way in which the route system is structured and for the types of aircraft which are needed.

Demand will be increasingly driven by affordability

In the past, growth in RPKs has been very tightly correlated with economic (GDP) growth. But in recent years the causality of this relationship has become weaker and other demand drivers have become more important.

A hub system reduces congestion & costs as well as expanding service choices
Compared with a point-to-point route system, a hub-&-spoke system can significantly reduce costs and congestion as well as the environmental impact of air transport. By consolidating traffic loads between different origins and destinations it allows more passengers to be transported through a congested air traffic system at a reduced cost which has become probably the single most important economic factor driving airline profitability. In addition, hub systems can provide smaller communities with a greatly increased number of service choices.

Hubbing drastically reduces congestion & offers secondary cities more service choices
Fragmented B B Hubbed

A A
No. of cities : No. of connections : n

n (n -1)

n 2 (n -1)

Economies of scale reduce the cost of transporting a passenger Economies of scale reduce the cost of transporting a passenger across the network across the network

Global Market Forecast 2003

13

Demand for air travel

The number of nonstop services has reached a saturation point

Major airlines have recognised these advantages. As a result since 1996 fewer non-stop services have been opened than have been closed after proving unprofitable. After a period when airlines experimented with services linking almost all possible combinations of cities, the global route network seems to have reached a point of saturation. Moreover, the bulk of air travel will continue to be generated by the concentrations of population, business and industry in and around the major cities, and the great majority of passengers will be carried over and through the major hubs.

Number of city pairs served has stagnated

2,000 15,000

1,500

14,000

Routes dropped / added

Total number of routes

1,000

13,000

500

12,000

11,000

-500

10,000

-1,000

9,000

-1,500 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001

8,000

*Source : OAG September data. Scheduled routes operated one or more years in a row.

Air travel demand will become increasingly concentrated

As urbanisation increases, the numbers of people living in major cities and agglomerations is increasing more rapidly than the general growth in population. Today just five cities or agglomerations worldwide have more than 20 million inhabitants; based on current projections, by 2020 this number will have grown to 16 including 10 in the dynamic Asia-Pacific region.

Growing urban populations will need more A380s

31.85 21.15 20.4 36.0

21.6 24.9

Seoul
44.0 34.9

Istanbul 29.1
20.8 New York 29.6 20.75 30.6

Delhi Karachi
20.8 23.7

Los Angeles

Tokyo
20.05

Cairo Mexico
20.25 27.4 21.0

Kolkata
28.8

Manila
23.9

Osaka

Dacca Sao Paulo Mumbai

Jakarta

Cities with population > 20 million

Source: Thomas Brinkhoff: City Population, http://www.citypopulation.de
2002 2020

14

Global Market Forecast 2003

Demand for air travel

Other developments will have little impact

The GMF growth projections reflect the expectation by Airbus forecasters that high-speed rail systems will continue to take a substantial share of some highly-travelled short-haul markets, but that their proliferation will be severely constrained by the huge infrastructure investment required as well as by growing environmental constraints. Airbus also anticipates that the impact on air travel of improved electronic communications will be neutral, as the stimulus they provide to business and personal contacts will counterbalance any direct substitution. Airbus does not anticipate that air travel will be significantly affected by unavailability of conventional hydrocarbon fuels during the next twenty years, although in the long run increasing price and environmental pressures will rightly provide strong incentives to improve fuel efficiency.

Travel growth will vary widely between different markets

Average annual RPK growth rate (% p.a.) 2002 - 2022

Top Ten markets

9 8 7 6 5 4
Domestic Europe Europe - USA Intra Europe Europe - Asia Domestic P.R.China

World average 5% p.a.

Europe - South America Europe Middle East

3
Dom. USA

2 1 0

Domestic Japan

Asia - USA

% of world 20.4% 2002 RPK

9.4%

6.4%

3.3%

3%

2.2%

2.1%

2.0%

1.8%

1.6%

World air travel will recover from the crisis & continue to grow strongly
The twenty-year RPK growth projections for each of the 140 travel markets studied are listed in Appendix B. Overall, the result is a prediction that the RPKs carried by the worlds major airlines will grow at an average annual 5.0% to reach just under 8.5 trillion by 2022, compared with some 3.2 trillion in 2002.

Global Market Forecast 2003

15

Demand for air travel

Lower-than-average growth in the US market means it will lose its historical dominance
Obviously this global average covers a wide variety of growth rates in different air passenger markets, largely reflecting their varying degrees of maturity. Airbus forecasters project twenty-year average annual growth ranging from 2.7% for the mature domestic US market to 8.5% for domestic routes in China, which will be one of the great dynamos for future growth in air travel. As a result, by 2022 the North American domestic market will have lost its historical dominance, having been overtaken by the dynamic AsiaPacific region as the worlds largest air travel market. At the same time the share of world RPKs carried by the airlines of North America will have been surpassed by that of airlines based in Europe.

Europes airlines will take the largest share of world traffic

Africa Middle East Latin America 2% 3% Africa & Caribbean 3% Middle East 5% 3% Latin America & Caribbean North America 5% 35% Asia-Pacific 24% North America 29%

Europe 30% World traffic at end 2002 3.2 trillion RPK

Asia-Pacific 28% Europe 33% World traffic at end 2022 8.5 trillion RPK

US domestic share of world traffic will decrease

US domestic 20.4% US domestic 13%

Despite declining growth rates, the annual traffic increment will continue to increase
Between 2021 and 2022 world annual RPKs will increase by 360 billion. This single years incremental traffic will be greater than the total of 351 billion RPKs reported by the worlds airlines in 1969 when the 747 entered service, and helps explain why the A380, larger than anything flying today, is already recognised as an essential part of the worlds future air transport system.

World total in 2002

World total in 2022

3.2 trillion RPK

8.5 trillion RPK

16

Global Market Forecast 2003

5. Air transport operational evolution

The numbers of aircraft and seats required to generate the forecast volume of RPKs at the projected level of service frequencies will result from the forecast evolution of a variety of parameters, which are projected yearby-year for each of the 9,188 individual airport-pairs studied. Airbus forecasters predict that, within the constraints of available airport and ATC capacity, these factors will continue to evolve along historical trends: Flight distance: reflecting generally higher growth on longer rather than shorter routes, the average distance flown will increase from 1,437 km in 2002 to 1,516 km in 2022; Block speed: in consequence, average speed will increase slightly from 612 km/h in 2002 to 622 in 2022; Aircraft utilisation: also reflecting the increasing flight distance, average utilisation will grow from 3,450 block hours per aircraft in 2002 to 3,739 in 2022; Passenger load factor: after a decline from 70.1% in 2002 to 68.8% in 2003 as airlines did not manage to reduce capacity in line with the drop in traffic, average load factors will then resume their historical trend, growing progressively to reach 74.3% in 2022. All these figures are global averages, embracing wide variations between the groups of airlines based in different geographical regions, but the overall impact is such that in 2022 each installed seat in service will generate 1.87 million RPKs per year, compared with just 1.63 million in 2002; an average increase of 0.7% per year in seat productivity. Consequently, to accommodate the forecast average annual 5.0% increase in traffic, the worlds major airlines will have to increase the number of mainline seats they operate at an average annual 4.3%. The additional seats will be provided partly by an increase in the number of aircraft operated, and partly by an increase in the number of seats per aircraft. The number of aircraft operated depends, of course, on the number of departures offered and the average number of departures per aircraft. Under intensifying cost pressure, airlines will manage to squeeze a few more flights per year out of each of their aircraft. From 1,470 in 2002, this number will increase to 1,533 in 2022; broadly equivalent to one more flight per aircraft per week representing an average rate of increase of 0.2% per year.

Higher growth on longer routes will help improve seat productivity

Seat productivity & capacity growth will vary between different airline regional groups
RPK per seat
0.7%

Capacity (seats in service)

World traffic (RPK) 5.0%

4. 3%

0.7% 0.7% 0.4% 0.7% 0.9% 0. 8%

2% 1% 0%

Latin America & Caribbean 5.3% Asia-Pacific 5.9% Africa 4.7% N. America 4.0% Middle East 5.8% Europe 5.4%
1% 2% 3% 4%

4. 6% 5.1% 4.3%

3.3% 4.8% 4. 6%
5% 6%

Average annual growth(%)

Global Market Forecast 2003

17

Air transport operational evolution

To determine the future number of departures, Airbus forecasters use a unique approach based on the observed distribution of flight frequencies between airport-pairs worldwide as a function of flight distance. Obviously, the longer the flight the fewer the number of departures required to provide an acceptable level of service. At the same time the observed behaviour of airlines shows that again as a function of distance there is a maximum level of frequency beyond which any further increase will not in itself generate any more travel demand. As traffic grows on any particular route, the extent to which it will be accommodated by an increase in aircraft seat capacity as opposed to an increase in frequency will depend upon where it is situated between these two thresholds. This analysis for each airport-pair leads Airbus to predict that overall, assuming that the infrastructure is able to cope with the increased volume of flights, airlines worldwide during the next twenty years will increase the number of departures they offer at an average annual rate of 3.5%. This is significantly higher than the increase achieved during the past 25 years, and will present a major challenge to the worlds airports and ATC systems.

The GMF assumes liberal frequency development

Total daily flights (all airlines combined) Capacity share
60 40

Capacity growth only

20

Capacity/ frequency split Maximum service levels Satisfactory regional service levels (Europe-Asia shown) Distance (km)

10 8 6

Frequency growth only

1 200

400 600 8001000

Frequency share

2000

4000 6000 8000 10000

Coupled with the forecast 0.2% increase in departures per aircraft, it leads to the prediction that in order to provide the forecast 4.3% average annual increase in seats, the number of seats per aircraft will have to increase by 1% per year. This means that the average 180 seats per aircraft installed in the world mainline fleet in 2002 will have to grow to 220 seats by 2022. This represents an acceleration of the historical trend which has seen average mainline seat capacity grow from 166 seats per aircraft in 1982.

Despite a doubling in departures, aircraft size will have to grow

Seats (4.3% p.a.) Departures per aircraft (0.2% p.a.) Departures (3.5% p.a.) Seats per aircraft (1.0% p.a.)

No. of aircraft (3.3% p.a.)

Average annual growth rates 2002-2022

18

Global Market Forecast 2003

6. Passenger fleet renewal

Airlines will need to acquire aircraft not only to accommodate the traffic growth described in Chapter 4 but also to replace their older, noisier and less efficient aircraft as their age increases, utilisation falls and maintenance costs rise. More and more airlines, including the new breed of no-frills carrier, recognise the value of maintaining a young attractive fleet, not merely to enhance their market image but also to improve traveller acceptability and exploit the economic advantages of new, more advanced aircraft. Airbus forecasters reflect as far as possible each individual airlines approach to fleet renewal. Where no clear policy is evident, they assume the airline will replace an aircraft when it reaches a default age which reflects the general behaviour in the region in which the airline is based. This varies from 20 years for airlines in Asia-Pacific or the Peoples Republic of China to 29 years for airlines in Latin America and the Caribbean. As a result, aircraft replacement is largely driven by the historical patterns of aircraft delivery, and tends therefore to take place in a series of waves, with each wave as it occurs creating new business opportunities for aircraft manufacturers and associated suppliers of equipment and services. The GMF year-by-year forecast of the numbers of aircraft replaced by the airlines of Europe, with clearlydefined peaks in 2005, 2013 and 2021/22, exhibits a classic wave pattern and implies that the regions airlines behave in a more or less homogeneous manner.

Airlines will continue to replace passenger aircraft before the end of their economic life
Default replacement age (years)
30 25 20 15

Eastern Europe

Western Europe

North America

Indian Subcontinent

North Africa

Asia-Pacific

5 0

European fleet replacement waves reflect past delivery cycles

N of aircraft replaced Seat category :

300 250 200 150 100 50 0 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

Intermediate twin-aisle Small twin-aisle Single-aisle

2017

Middle East

10

Rest of Africa

P.R.China

2019

Global Market Forecast 2003

Latin America & Caribbean

2021

19

Passenger fleet renewal

In contrast, the forecast for the North American airlines suggests a much more heterogeneous behaviour by the airlines. For the world as a whole, the picture is one of high replacement activity through 2005, followed by a lull before the next wave starts to build from 2010 onwards. Occasionally, as in the case of the past three years, a slowdown in traffic may drive airlines to reduce capacity by definitively retiring aircraft or parking them with a view to reintroducing them when growth resumes. In practice, only a small fraction of the parked aircraft will in fact return to service. Based on their best estimates, Airbus forecasters predict that by 2022 only 16% of the end-2002 active fleet will still be in service with their current operators.

North American fleet replacement activity will be less cyclical

N of aircraft replaced Seat category :

300 250 200 150 100 50 0 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

Intermediate twin-aisle Small twin-aisle Single-aisle

2017

2019

2021

High worldwide fleet replacement activity through 2005

N of aircraft replaced Seat category :

800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

Large Intermediate twin-aisle Small twin-aisle Single-aisle

2017

2019

2021

20

Global Market Forecast 2003

7. World passenger fleet development

High aircraft size and fleet growth in AsiaPacific
Avg. a/c size
1.0%

Number of aircraft in service

World capacity 4.3%

3.3%

1.2% 1.3% 0.6% 0.8% 0.8% 0.7%

2% 1%

Latin America & Caribbean 4.6% Asia-Pacific 5.1% Africa 4.3% N. America 3.3% Middle East 4.8% Europe 4.6%
0% 1% 2% 3%

3.3% 3.8% 3.7%

2.4% 4.0% 3. 8%
4% 5%

At the end of 2002 the airlines in the GMF were actively operating some 10,800 passenger jets with 100 seats or more. With an average of 180 seats per aircraft, this provided a little more than 1.9 million installed seats. Through 2022, the number of aircraft will increase by 90% to about 20,500 while the number of installed seats will reach more than 4.5 million. These numbers represent global average rates of growth of 3.3% per year in numbers of aircraft and 4.3% per year in installed seats. The airlines domiciled in the different regions show considerable variation around these global averages. High traffic growth on routes to, from and within the region will drive the dynamic Asia-Pacific airlines based there to achieve the most rapid increase in both average seat capacity and installed seats. The most rapid increase in fleet size will be achieved by airlines in the Middle East. In contrast the airlines of North America, with their high exposure to the mature US domestic market, will have the slowest growth in installed seats. Consequently the North American airlines will become progressively less dominant. By 2022 they will be operating fewer seats than the airlines of Europe or of the Asia-Pacific region.

Average annual growth

Airlines in Europe & Asia-Pacific will operate more seats than in North America
Rest of World 13% Rest of World 12% North America 35% North America 28%

Asia-Pacific 25%

Europe 28%

Asia-Pacific 29%

Europe 30%

World total at end 2002

World total at end 2022

1.94 million seats

4.53 million seats

Global Market Forecast 2003

21

World passenger fleet development

As an inevitable response to intensifying cost pressures and infrastructure capacity constraints, the composition of the world fleet will shift towards larger aircraft. By 2022 mainline single-aisles will make up just two-thirds of the fleet, compared with three-quarters in 2002. At the same time very large aircraft will account for 6% of the world passenger fleet; the same percentage as represented by 747s in the current fleet. However the role played by very large aircraft is seen more clearly in terms of capacity. By 2022 these aircraft will provide 14% of all seats in service. Some care is needed when reading the results of the fleet forecast in Appendix C. The GMF does not, for example, forecast delivery of just 484 A320s through 2022; the figure of 484 represents the number of A320s already in Airbus firm order backlog at end 2002. In addition, the A320 will of course compete to supply part of the forecast open demand for 10,467 single-aisle types for which firm orders had not been placed at end 2002.

The trend is towards widebodies

Large Intermediate twin-aisle >1% 14% Small twin-aisle 9% Small twin-aisle 11% Mainline single-aisle 67% Large 6% Intermediate twin-aisle 16%

Mainline single-aisle 77%

World total at end 2002

World total at end 2022

10,789 aircraft

20,554 aircraft

Very large aircraft will provide a significant share of world airline capacity
Large 14% Intermediate twin-aisle 26% Large 1% Mainline single-aisle 49% intermediate twin-aisle 25%

Small twin-aisle 12%

Mainline single-aisle 61%

Small twin-aisle 12%

World total at end 2002

World total at end 2022

1.94 million seats

4.53 million seats

22

Global Market Forecast 2003

8. Demand for passenger aircraft deliveries

Global summary
During 2003-2022, to accommodate traffic growth and renew their fleets, the worlds major airlines will require delivery of a total of 18,829 passenger jets with 100 seats or more. Of these deliveries, 3,197 represent demand that will be satisfied by aircraft replaced by their initial operator and recycled back into the fleet of another airline. The remaining 15,632 will be new aircraft; an average of 782 per year. Five-eighths of the new aircraft delivered will be for growth and three-eighths for fleet renewal. Of the 5,867 aircraft replaced, 2,019 will be converted to freighters (see Chapter 9) and 3,848 will be definitively withdrawn from airline service. The new aircraft will include approximately :

Total demand will be met by 15,632 new and 3,197 recycled aircraft
Fleet size

10,000 single-aisle

mainline

aircraft; a market where the A320 family has built up a leading position;

20,000
+ 3.3 % per annum

20,554 @ 220

9,765@ 265

1,800 small twinaisle aircraft; a market where the

A330-200 is setting new standards which cannot be cost-effectively superseded in the foreseeable future;

15,000
Growth 10,789 @ 180 15,632 @ 233 new aircraft Replaced 5,867 @ 181

10,000

5,000
Recycled Stay 3,197 @ 186 1,725 @ 168

2,600 intermediate twin-aisle aircraft; a market

where the larger A330/A340 family offers an unmatched combination of capability and efficiency, and;

2002

2022

New passenger aircraft deliveries will average 782 per year

Number of new aircraft
12,000 10,075 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,612 2,000 0 Single-aisle Small twin-aisle Intermediate twin-aisle Large aircraft 1,782 1,163
New passenger aircraft delivered 2003 - 2022 Totala= 15,632

Nearly 1,200

very large and economical aircraft; a market which it now appears the highly successful A380 will have to itself when it enters service in 2006.

Seat category

Global Market Forecast 2003

23

Demand for passenger aircraft deliveries

The European airlines will constitute the largest single regional market in terms of numbers of aircraft delivered during the next twenty years, but their greater appetite for very large A380type aircraft means that the airlines of Asia-Pacific will account for the largest share of seats delivered.

European airlines will account for most deliveries; AsiaPacific airlines for the largest number of seats delivered
Africa Middle East 3% Latin America 4% & Caribbean 7% Middle East 4% Africa Latin America 3% & Caribbean North America North America 6% 26% 30%

Asia-Pacific 24%

Europe 32%

Asia-Pacific 31% 3.6 million new seats delivered 2003-2022

Europe 30%

15,632 new passenger aircraft deliveries 2003-2022

24

Global Market Forecast 2003

Demand for passenger aircraft deliveries

Most aircraft will fly from airports in the US & Europe with Tokyos Narita also in the Top Ten

2 ORD (350) 3 LAX (307)

10 JFK (220)

1 LHR (368)

8 AMS (230) 5 FRA (295)

9 NRT (228)

7 DFW (262)

6 ATL (294)

4 CDG (303)

Rank (n of a/c)

In 2022, 14% of the world mainline fleet will be used on flights In 2022, 14% of the world mainline fleet will be used on flights from just the Top Ten airports from just the Top Ten airports

By 2022 the worlds active mainline fleet of 20,554 passenger jets will be operating at 1,511 airports, linking a total of 9,125 airport-pairs with more than 82,900 daily one-way flights. Operations will remain largely focused on flights to, from and within North America, Europe and AsiaPacific. Flights from just the Top 25 airports led by London Heathrow and Chicago OHare will absorb the productive capacity of 28% of the aircraft, while half the aircraft will be used on flights from just the Top 75 airports. Five of the Top Ten airports worldwide (measured by aircraft utilisation) will be in the US, and four in Europe, with Tokyo Narita in 9th place the sole representative from Asia-Pacific. By 2022, 62% of the active world mainline fleet will be deployed on flights of no more than 2000 km (roughly equivalent to Frankfurt to Moscow).

Most aircraft will be used on short flights

Percent of aircraft operated at range
25%

2022

20%

15%

10%

5%

0% 500 2,000 3,500 5,000 6,500 8,000 9,500 11,000 12,500

Range band (500 km steps)

Global Market Forecast 2003

25

Demand for passenger aircraft deliveries

Results by size category : Mainline single-aisles

Through 2022 the worlds major airlines will need more than 12,400 single-aisle passenger aircraft to accommodate traffic growth and renew their fleets. Of these, some 2,400 will be provided by aircraft recycled back into the fleet after being replaced by their initial operator. The advanced and efficient A320 family, ranging from the A318 to the A321, is well placed to secure a large share of the remaining demand for 10,100 new aircraft in this category. By 2022 the active fleet of 13,830 mainline single-aisles will be operating at 1,506 airports, linking 8,216 airport-pairs with some 63,000 daily one-way flights. Operations will be largely focused on domestic US routes; all the Top Ten airports served by these aircraft (measured in terms of aircraft utilisation) will be in the US. Indeed, the most highly-ranked nonUS airport, Frankfurt, is in only 11th place.

10,075 new mainline single-aisles will be needed

Fleet size
16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000
Repl.

Number of new aircraft

13,830 @ 159 + 2.6 % per annum 5,536

Growth

3,000

2,798
2,500

2,363
2,000

2,442

8,294 @ 145

10,075 new aircraft

1,500

1,888

6,000 4,000 2,000 0 2002 2020

Rec. Stay

4,539

1,000

2,357 1,398

500

584

0 100 125 150 175 210

Seat category

Mainline single-aisle operations will be concentrated on US domestic routes

5 MSP (162) 9 DTW (141) 1 ORD (267)
7 EWR (151)

10 DEN (139)

8 PHX (147) 2 DFW (225) 6 LAX (154) 4 IAH (174) 3 ATL (215)

Rank (n of a/c)

In 2022, 13% of the world mainline single-aisle fleet will be used on In 2022, 13% of the world mainline single-aisle fleet will be used on flights from just the Top Ten airports flights from just the Top Ten airports

26

Global Market Forecast 2003

Demand for passenger aircraft deliveries

Mainline single-aisles will be largely flown on short routes

Percent of aircraft operated at range
25%

2022

Similarly, the Top Ten routes will all be within the US. In this case, the first non-US route (Bangkok- Koh Samui) is ranked just 33rd. Compared with the world fleet as a whole, the use of single-aisles will be relatively dispersed. Flights from the Top 25 airports, led by Chicago OHare and Dallas/Fort Worth, will absorb the productive capacity of just 26% of the aircraft, and 50% of the single-aisle fleet will be used on flights from the Top 87 airports. The single-aisle aircraft will be flown overwhelmingly on short flights; by 2022 39% of the aircraft will be used on flights of no more than 1,000 km equivalent to Paris to Madrid. By 2022, 22 North American airlines will each be operating an average of 254 mainline single-aisles, compared with 82 European airlines operating an average of 53 aircraft each.

20%

15%

10%

5%

0% 500 2,000 3,500 5,000 6,500 8,000 9,500 11,500

Range band (500 km steps)

with 41% flown by airlines in North America

Middle East 5% Africa 16% North America 10% Latin America & Caribbean 8% Africa Middle East 4% 2% North America 40%

Latin America & Caribbean 12%

Asia-Pacific 15%

Europe 37% Asia-Pacific 20% Europe 31%

222 airlines

13,830 aircraft

GMF mainline single-aisle fleet in 2022

Global Market Forecast 2003

27

Demand for passenger aircraft deliveries

Small twin-aisles
Demand will develop for a total of 2,100 aircraft in this category. With almost 300 to be replaced by recycled aircraft, this will leave a need for some 1,800 new aircraft to be delivered during 2003-2022. By 2022 the active fleet of 2,227 small twin-aisle aircraft will be operating at 609 airports, linking a total of 2,623 airport-pairs with some 8,200 daily one-way flights. Operations will be largely focus on intra-European and US domestic flights. The Top Ten airports include six in Europe and three in the US, while the Top Ten routes include three in the US and four in Europe. Amongst Asian airports, only Beijing features among the Top Ten.

1,782 new small twin-aisles aircraft will be needed

Fleet size
2,500

2,227 @ 249

2,000

1,289
1,500
+ 4.4 % per annum Growth

938 @ 246
1,000
Repl.

1,782 new aircraft

493 297 148

2022

500
Rec. Stay

0 2002

Operations of small twin-aisle aircraft will mainly be in the US & Europe

2 LHR (45) 3 JFK (44) 9 AMS (31)

6 LAX (38) 4 ATL (44) 10 PEK (28)

1 CDG (55)

5 FRA (40)

7 MAD (37)

8 FCO (34)

Rank (n of a/c)

In 2022, 18% of the small twin-aisle fleet will be used on flights In 2022, 18% of the small twin-aisle fleet will be used on flights from just the Top Ten airports from just the Top Ten airports

28

Global Market Forecast 2003

Demand for passenger aircraft deliveries

Small twin-aisle operations will include both short-range & long-range routes
Percent of aircraft operated at range
18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 500 2,000 3,500 5,000 6,500 8,000 9,500 11,000 12,500

2022

As a measure of concentration, flights from the Top 25 airports will use the productive capacity of 32% of the fleet, and 50% of the fleet will be used on flights from the Top 56 airports, led by Paris Charles de Gaulle and London Heathrow. The world fleet of small twin-aisles will be used on a broad spectrum of routes, but will mainly fly on local and domestic routes largely served today by single-aisles. The higher proportion of these routes will result in a sustained reduction in average flight distance from its current 2,561 km to 1,974 km in 2022. By 2022 70% of the aircraft will be used on flights of no more than 4,000 km; equivalent to Los Angeles to New York. The airlines of Europe will constitute the largest single regional market for these aircraft, with 50 airlines operating an average of 17 aircraft each. Fifteen North American operators, however, will have a larger average fleet of 32 aircraft each.

Range band (500 km steps)

with European airlines the main users

Africa 12% Middle East 6% North America 10% Africa Middle East 5% 4% Latin America North America & Caribbean 22% 6% AsiaPacific 25%

Latin America & Caribbean 12%

Europe 34% Asia-Pacific 26% Europe 38%

146 airlines

2,227 aircraft

GMF small twin-aisle fleet in 2022

Global Market Forecast 2003

29

Demand for passenger aircraft deliveries

Intermediate twinaisles
The worlds major airlines will need a total of more than 3,100 aircraft in this category; a market segment covered by the A330-300 and the A340 family. 2,600 of these aircraft will be new, leaving 500 to be satisfied by recycled aircraft. Almost half of the new aircraft will be 300seaters, with the remainder split equally between 350-seaters (28%) and 400-seaters (25%). By 2022 the active fleet of 3,326 twin-aisles will be operating at 506 airports, linking a total of 2,059 airport-pairs with some 9,400 daily one-way flights. Operations will be spread globally, with only a small proportion of flights on US domestic routes. Of the Top Ten airports served, five will be in the Asia-Pacific region and four in Europe, leaving just Los Angeles in the US. The Top Ten routes also show a global spread.

2,612 new intermediate twin-aisles will be needed

Fleet size
3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 2002 2022 Repl. + 4.0 % per annum

Number of new aircraft

3,326 @ 335

1,400 1,200

1,219

1,799
1,000 800 744 600 400 200 0 300 350 400 649

1,527 @ 326

Growth

2,612 new aircraft

813
Rec. Stay

525 189

Seat category

Intermediate twin-aisle operations will be concentrated largely on Asia-Pacific & Europe

7 LAX (67) 9 AMS (62) 1 CDG (97) 2 LHR (96) 4 FRA (84) 5 PEK (73) 8 BKK (66) 3 NRT (89)

Rank (n of a/c)

6 SIN (71)

10 ICN (55)

In 2022, 23% of the intermediate twin-aisle fleet will be used on In 2022, 23% of the intermediate twin-aisle fleet will be used on flights from just the Top Ten airports flights from just the Top Ten airports

30

Global Market Forecast 2003

Demand for passenger aircraft deliveries

A significant proportion of intermediate twinaisle flights will demand 4-engine autonomy

Percent of aircraft operated at range
14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 500 2,000 3,500 5,000 6,500 8,000 9,500 11,000 12,500

2022

Compared with the world fleet as a whole, operation of intermediate twinaisles will be relatively concentrated, with flights from the Top 25 airports led by Paris Charles de Gaulle and London Heathrow absorbing the productive capacity of 44% of the aircraft. Half the aircraft will be used on flights from the Top 32 airports. The deployment of the intermediate twin-aisle fleet shows a similar pattern to that of the smaller twinaisle aircraft, but with a substantially greater use on long-range routes. Half the fleet will be used on flights of no more than 4,000 km (roughly equivalent to San Francisco to Montreal) , but one-third will be used on flights longer than 7,500 km (roughly equivalent to New York to Moscow). The 35 Asia-Pacific operators will constitute the largest single regional market, with an average of 38 aircraft each.

Range band (500 km steps)

Asia-Pacific will be the largest market

Africa 10% Middle East North America 7% 9% Latin America & Caribbean 5% Africa Middle East 4% 6% North America 20%

Latin America & Caribbean 11%

Europe 35% Asia-Pacific 28% Asia-Pacific 40%

Europe 25%

124 airlines

3,326 aircraft

GMF intermediate twin-aisle fleet in 2022

Global Market Forecast 2003

31

Demand for passenger aircraft deliveries

Large aircraft
By 2022, in order to sustain profitable operations in the face of maturing markets, continuing severe price competition, and increasingly stringent infrastructure and environmental constraints, major airlines will need a total of almost 1,200 very large and economical aircraft like the A380. Just 18 will be recycled back into the fleet after being replaced by their initial operators (ten of these being aircraft delivered during the 20-year forecast period). Over 70% of the new large aircraft delivered will be in the 500- and 600seater categories. The remaining 30% of demand will be satisfied by some 200 450-seaters leaving only 130 aircraft in the 800- and 1000-seater categories. The average capacity of all deliveries will be 559 seats, very close to the 555 3-class seating configuration of the A380. By 2022, these large aircraft will be serving 209 airports, linking 489 airport-pairs with some 3,400 daily departures. Unsurprisingly, operation of very large aircraft will be highly concentrated, with flights from just the Top 25 airports using the capacity of 70% of the fleet. Flights from London Heathrow will use the productive capacity of more of these aircraft than flights from any other airport, but apart from Los Angeles in 6th place all the other Top Ten airports are in Asia-Pacific. And of the Top Ten routes, only London Heathrow-New York JFK does not serve this dynamic region.

1,163 very large passenger aircraft will be needed

Fleet size Number of new aircraft

1,171 @ 558
1,100

600

500 900 (+ 20.1 % per annum)

537

1,141
400

700

500 Growth

1,163 new aircraft 300

200

292 203

300

100

30 @ 551
Repl. 2002 2022

100

-100

22 18 -10

101
0 450 500 600 800

30
1,000

Seat category

Eight of the Top Ten large aircraft airports will be in Asia-Pacific

1 LHR (106) 2 NRT (100) 6 LAX (48)

7 PEK (40) 5 BKK (48) 4 SIN (66)

8 HND (37)

9 ICN (37)

3 HKG (88)

Rank (n of a/c)

10 SYD (35)

In 2022 more than half of the worlds fleet of 1,171 very large In 2022 more than half of the worlds fleet of 1,171 very large aircraft will be used on flights from just the top ten airports aircraft will be used on flights from just the top ten airports

Nine of the Top Ten large aircraft routes will serve Asia
15 (628) JFK 22 (654) LHR CTS 16 (816) HND 16 (771) FUK 23 (594) 16 (716) NRT 16 (530) LAX 16 (526) HNL

18 (608)

SIN Number of aircraft (avg. seats)

HKG 22 (754)

TPE

In 2022, the Top Ten airport pairs alone will use 180 out of 1,171 In 2022, the Top Ten airport pairs alone will use 180 out of 1,171 very large aircraft very large aircraft

32

Global Market Forecast 2003

Demand for passenger aircraft deliveries

Large aircraft will fly on domestic as well as international routes

Percent of aircraft operated at range
12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 500 2,000 3,500 5,000 6,500 8,000 9,500 11,000 12,500

2022

The very large aircraft will be used on the complete range of domestic, local, regional and intercontinental routes. Nearly one-third of the fleet will be used on routes no longer than 2,000 km; equivalent to Hong-Kong to Beijing. At the top end one-third of the fleet will be used on flights longer than 9,000 km (roughly equivalent to Paris to Los Angeles). By far the greatest number of very large passenger aircraft will be delivered to airlines in the dynamic Asia-Pacific region, with 23 airlines operating an average of 30 aircraft each. In contrast, airlines in North America will account for a total of little more than 120 aircraft.

Range band (500 km steps)

Asia-Pacific will dominate demand

Middle East 8% Africa North America 6% 12% Latin America & Caribbean 4% Africa 1% Middle East 6% Latin America & Caribbean 1%

North America 11%

Europe 21% Europe 24% Asia-Pacific 46% Asia-Pacific 60%

50 airlines

1,171 aircraft

GMF very large aircraft fleet in 2022

Global Market Forecast 2003

33

Demand for passenger aircraft deliveries

The Airbus product line covers the demand spectrum

Airbus now offers the worlds most comprehensive line of safe, comfortable and technically advanced commercial jetliners which cover the full spectrum of airline needs from 100 seats and up, all sharing a high degree of technical and operational commonality. With this product line, Airbus looks forward to helping the airlines bring safe, swift, convenient and sustainable air travel within reach of more and more of the worlds peoples, expanding personal horizons and building understanding between nations.

The advanced Airbus product line

600 550 500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100
A318 A321 A310-300 A320 A319 A330-200 A380*

Typical seating

3 - class
A340-600 A340-500 A340-300

2 - class
A300-600*

A330-300

Range with full passenger load (nautical miles) 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000

3,000

4,000

* Cargo version also available

34

Global Market Forecast 2003

9. Air cargo forecast

Global summary
Air cargo has been less affected by the current crisis than passenger traffic. However, reductions of passenger schedules have led to significant changes in the composition of the active freighter fleet and in the utilisation of aircraft, with an increased usage of larger aircraft, higher load factors and intensive utilisation of the feeder fleet. Airbus forecasters believe that the increased efficiency achieved by operators of dedicated freighters will be maintained in the future, leading to an ever higher contribution by dedicated freighters to air cargo transport. Recovery of airfreight traffic is well underway and its long-term prospects are strong, with an average yearly growth of 5.75% leading to a tripling of freight tonnes-kilometres (FTKs) by 2022. This traffic will be carried by a fleet of 3,283 dedicated freighters, from a base of 1,499 active units in 2002. Over the forecast period, the GMF anticipates the retirement of 1,066 freighters, accompanied by the introduction of 2,019 converted passenger aircraft and the delivery of 831 new factory-built aircraft valued at $123 billion (2003 $) .

The world freighter fleet will more than double

Number of aircraft
3,500 3,000 2,500

3,283
831

New

+4.0% p.a.
2,000 1,500 1,000 500 433 0

1,499
2,019

Conversions

Retained in service

2002

2022

Global Market Forecast 2003

35

Air cargo forecast

Sustained growth in airfreight demand

The ongoing recovery from the recent crisis demonstrates that the underlying factors for strong growth are still at work, among them the development of trade between Asia and Europe or North America and the need to carry quickly and safely more and more high-value goods. The fastest growing airfreight markets are those linking the Asia-Pacific region to Europe and North America. Seven of the Top Ten flows serve this region, six of which will enjoy traffic growth higher than the world average. These Asia-Pacific markets are expected to represent nearly 31% of global airfreight in twenty years time, compared with less than 27% in 2002. Reflecting Global Insights more optimistic long-term forecasts for imports and exports, Airbus 20-year prediction of average annual FTK growth has increased from 5.5% p.a. in the previous GMF to 5.75% p.a. As a consequence the US domestic market, which has been the leader both in traffic and tonnage transported, will see its share eroding to the benefit of markets linking AsiaPacific countries to the other regions. However, this decline will be less steep than in the passenger market. Respective contributions and growth projections for each of the 145 directional airfreight submarkets studied in the GMF are listed in Appendix D.

Asia-Pacific countries will lead the growth in airfreight demand

Average annual FTK growth rate (% p.a.) 2002 - 2022 8 7 6 5 4
Domestic USA

Top Ten markets

World average 5.75 %

North America - Europe Europe - North America Japan - North America

2 1 0

% of world 14.5% 8.1% 7.4% 2002 FTK

6.1% 4.6% 4.5% 4.0% 3.1%

PRC - Europe

Asia- Europe

2.5% 2.4%

US domestic share of world airfreight traffic is eroding

US Domestic 14.5%

US Domestic 11.2%

World Total at end 2002 156.1 billion FTKs

World Total at end 2022 477.4 billion FTKs

36

Global Market Forecast 2003

North America - Japan

Asia - North America

PRC - North America

North America - Asia

Air cargo forecast

Belly traffic will not keep pace with overall demand

Transport of goods in the remaining volume of passenger aircraft is attractive in terms of costs, but is dependent on the availability of passenger flights and on passenger load factors. The recent crisis, where passenger carriers reduced frequencies but quickly recovered passenger load factors, led to a significantly reduced availability of belly capacity. Cargo traffic also suffered, albeit to a lesser extent. Cargo carriers reacted by minimally reducing their active fleet, but more importantly by utilising better the resources available, in particular by flying more large freighters. Airbus forecasters believe that this will persist in the future, with the advantages of dedicated flights (timedefinite supply, safety and security of cargo, controlled flight conditions), continuing to offset the lower marginal cost of belly transport.

Thus, in 2002, the forecasters estimate that the 64 billion FTKs carried as passenger aircraft belly freight represented only 41% of the total FTKs generated. As passenger traffic, and thus available belly volume, are expected to grow more slowly than freight traffic, the share of belly traffic will reduce further, decreasing to a third of total FTKs by 2022. In contrast, airfreight carried on dedicated freighters is expected to grow at an average annual rate of 6.3% per year.

Freighter retirements are accelerating

The 2001-2002 crisis has hastened the retirement of older freighters. A number of passenger-to-freighter conversions have also been put on hold. In the medium term cargo airlines, especially in Europe, will have to respond to the new Chapter 4 noise regulations by diverting operations to dedicated cargo airports, modifying and re-certificating types which can be made compliant and/or replacing non-compliant types (e.g. 747-200s or DC-10s) earlier than planned. In the absence of announced retirement plans for a specific airline the GMF assumes that freighters are kept in service until they reach the ultimate limit of their economic life, taken as 37 years for single-aisles and 35 for widebodies. Since this takes no account of possible more stringent noise regulations, it leads to a conservative estimate of future retirements and associated capacity needs.

The retirement of ageing feeders and regional freighters is underway

Aircraft retired 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 Large Long-range Regional Feeders

Global Market Forecast 2003

37

Air cargo forecast

Retirement of older aircraft shapes demand for new freighters

Airbus projection of freighter retirements through 2022 takes account of the wave of retirements resulting from the current crisis or anticipating more severe noise regulations. 70% of these early retirements are 727Fs, DC-8Fs and 747-100Fs, which would have been retired between 2003 and 2008, had the GMF age criterion been applied. The ongoing retirement wave affects mainly feeders and regional freighters, as most of them are converted older passenger aircraft to be retired during the period. The fleets of long-range and large freighters in service at end 2002 were considerably younger, averaging just 14 years compared with 28 and 21 years respectively for feeder and regional freighter fleet. Consequently the majority will remain in service well into the second decade of the forecast period. Overall, during the next twenty years, a total of 1,066 freighters (70% of the 2002 active fleet) will be retired and replaced.

70% of the current fleet will be retired by end 2022

Number of aircraft
1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 Regional 800 600 507

1,499
Large 339 Long-range 161

433
400 200 0 Feeders 492 201 46 153 33

2002
Active fleet

2022
Retained in service

38

Global Market Forecast 2003

Air cargo forecast

Freighter productivity will improve ...

To accommodate a 20-year traffic increase of 240%, future freighters will need to work harder to assure profitable operations in the face of pricing and competitive pressures. By 2022, each tonne of freighter capacity in service will generate 1.58 million FTKs annually, compared with an already respectable 1.21 million in 2002. Most of this improvement in productivity will be achieved through an increase in annual aircraft utilisation, from 1,707 flight hours in 2002 to 2,254 in 2022. This will largely result from the retirement of less-efficient first-generation jets, many of which are still being used for marginal low-utilisation operations, as well as the higher growth rates projected on higher utilisation, longerrange services.

More, larger, more productive freighters will be needed

*20-year average annual growth rate

and average capacity per aircraft will increase

Unlike passenger airlines under pressure to improve service levels by increasing frequencies, freight operators generally have little incentive to increase frequencies beyond once-daily service and are more likely to respond to growing traffic by increasing aircraft size and thereby achieving lower unit operating costs. Overall, the capacity of the average freighter will increase from 50.4 tonnes in 2002 to 60.0 tonnes in 2022.

19.0% more tonnes per aircraft (0.9%*) 30.0% higher FTK per tonne (1.3%*)

240% more traffic FTK (6.3%*)

119% more aircraft (4.0%*)

Global Market Forecast 2003

39

Air cargo forecast

Results by freighter category: Feeders

Airbus estimates that the active feeder fleet operated during 2002 amounted to 492 aircraft. This excludes an additional 221 aircraft stored or virtually non-utilised, which did not contribute any significant traffic. Very few of these older, noisy aircraft are likely to return to active service. From 2002 to 2022, the feeder fleet will increase by 272 aircraft. This represents more modest growth than in the other freighter categories, but coupled with the need to replace 93% of the current fleet (459 aircraft) as they reach the end of their economic lives, it creates a need for delivery of a total of 731 freighters in the feeder category. As many as 622 of these will be passenger-to-freighter conversions. Small freighters are usually operated on short-range routes where amortisation of newly-built aircraft is more difficult to attain, and the passenger system will provide an abundance of cheap capacity to replace retired 727Fs and DC-9Fs. In the longer term, when enough suitable airframes become available, the A320 family will be an extremely attractive candidate to fill this need. This leaves a need for 109 factorybuilt freighters during the twenty-year period. Demand will be concentrated, with 70% of deliveries going to just seven airlines in the US and Latin America.

The current feeder fleet will grow by 55% by end 2022

Fleet size
800

764
109

New

600

+2.2% p.a. 492

400

622
200

Conversions

33 2002 2022

Retained in service

40

Global Market Forecast 2003

Air cargo forecast

More than 1,000 regional freighters will be needed
Fleet size 1,400

Regional
In 2002 the regional freighter fleet included 507 aircraft in active operation, together with 167 aging aircraft - mostly DC-8Fs and 707Fs which were parked or hardly utilised. By 2022, the active fleet will have grown by 693 aircraft, and 354 (70% of the 2002 active fleet) will have been retired. This will create demand for a total of 1,047 deliveries, of which 176 will be new-build aircraft and 871 passengerto-freighter conversions.

1,200
1,200

176
1,000

New

+4.4% p.a.
800

Conversions
600 400 200

507

871

153
0

Retained in service

2002

2022

The capacity of the long-range freighter fleet will increase almost 3 times by 2022
Tonnes of lift 25,000

Long-range
The long-range freighter segment will see capacity growing at an average annual rate of 5.2%. The increase in capacity is more meaningful than that of fleet size because this segment currently includes a number of combis, so that its capacity is more dispersed than in other segments. Based on the GMFs assumption that combis will be converted to full freighters when they are replaced as passenger aircraft, and in view of the age of the DC10-30/40 fleet, 71% of current capacity in this segment will have to be replaced by end-2022. The increase in fleet size of 259 aircraft, together with the need to replace the 115 aircraft in the current fleet which will reach the end of their economic lives before end 2022, will call for delivery of 374 freighters during the forecast period. Longrange freighters are deployed predominantly on high-orintermediate utilisation operations. Consequently the GMF predicts that as many as 174 deliveries will be new-build freighters, leaving room for 200 conversions.

25,175 New

20,000

10,463
+5.2% p.a.

15,000

Conversions
10,000

9,107

11,971

5,000

2,741
0

Retained in service

2002

2022

Almost half of long-range freighters deliveries will be factory-built

Fleet size 500

420
400

New

174
300

+4.9% p.a.
200

161

200
100

Conversions

46 2002 2022

Retained in service

Global Market Forecast 2003

41

Air cargo forecast

Large
Recent years have seen a significant increase in the number of large freighters used, from 286 in 2000 to 339 in 2002. Airbus forecasters believe that this trend will continue and that the number of large freighters in service will increase at an average 5% per year. Indeed, the bulk of new airfreight capacity will come from the large freighter segment, where 372 newlybuilt aircraft as well as 326 conversions will be needed by 2022. This demand will be driven mostly by growth in long-range services, but also by the need to replace a number of early 747Fs due to be retired during the second half of the forecast period. The base fleet in operation during 2002 excluded some 51 large freighters which were parked or almost not utilised; most of them were 747-100s, -200s or 747 combis which are not expected to rejoin the active fleet. This segment is expected to see the highest capacity growth, with a yearly average increase of 5.4% over the forecast period.

Reliance on large freighters will grow

Fleet size

899
800

372
600

New

+5.0% p.a.

400

339

326

Conversions

200

201
0

Retained in service

2002

2022

42

Global Market Forecast 2003

Air cargo forecast

2,850 freighters will be delivered

Fleet size 1,200

1,047
1,000 800 600 400

2002-2022 831 Total new a/c Total converted a/c 2,019 Total a/c 2,850

831 factory-built freighters will be needed

Overall, to accommodate growth and renew their fleets, cargo operators will require a total of 2,850 freighter deliveries during the next twenty years, of which 831 will be new factory-built freighters, and 2,019 will be passenger-to-freighter conversions. .

176
731

871 109

698

622
374

372

174
200

326

200
0 Feeders Regional Long-range Large

Global Market Forecast 2003

43

44

Global Market Forecast 2003

Appendices
A. Airlines & cargo carriers studied B. Detailed passenger traffic forecast C. Detailed passenger fleet forecast D. Detailed cargo traffic forecast E. Freighter fleet forecast 46 50 53 55 58

Global Market Forecast 2003

45

A. Airlines & cargo carriers analysed

The GMF is the product of a bottom-up micro analysis that covers 278 individual airlines in six geographical regions, including 63 subsidiaries or associates (airlines for which either operations and/or fleets cannot be separated from their associate companies; these are marked in italics in the list below) and 129 smaller airlines grouped in 13 sub-regional remainder fleet-plans. In addition the GMF covers a total of 150 freighter operators.

278 individual airlines & subsidiaries and 129 others grouped

Africa (57)
AFI DAH REU AGN MDG MLI MRT MAU NMB DSB SEY T GA AZW UYC NCH CAW DAO MSR ET H GHA KQA LAM LAA T AS Africa One Air Algerie Air Austral Air Gabon Air Madagascar Air Mali Air Mauritanie Air Mauritius Air Namibia Air Senegal Air Seychelles Air T ogo (Eagle Aviation) Air Zimbabwe Cameroon Airlines Chanchangi Airlines Comair Daallo Airlines Egypt air Ethiopian Airlines Ghana Airways Kenya Airways LAM Mocambique Libyan Arab Airlines Lotus Air NGA LBT RAM SHK LNK SAA SUD DT A T CV T AR Nigeria Airways Nouvelair T unisie Royal Air Maroc Shorouk Air South African Airlink South African Airways Sudan Airways T AAG Angola Airlines T ACV Cabo Verde T unis Air Re mainde r QSC African Safari Airways AAW Afriqiyah Airways BOT Air Botswana VBW Air Burkina CCE Air Cairo AML Air Malawi MHS Air Memphis ASD Air Sinai AT C Air T anzania NBK Albarka Air AMV AMC Aviation DJA Ant inea Airlines BLV Bellview Airlines ILN Inter Air KAJ Karthago Airlines Kulula Million Air Charter Nas Air NT W Nationwide Airlines SFR Safair SLA Sierra National Airlines T SG T rans Air Congo T UI T uninter

SAA

North America (43)

ACA JZA T SC MT E ASA AWE AAL ASE COA CMI DAL Air Canada Air Canada Jazz Air Canada Tango Air T ransat AirT ran Airways Alaska Airlines America West Airlines American Airlines Atlantic Southeast Continental Airlines Continental Micronesia Delta Air Lines ACA FFT HAL QXE JBU NWA SSV SWA NKS UAL USA USS WJA Frontier Hawaiian Air Horizon Air JetBlue Northwest Airlines Skyservice Southwest Airlines Spirit Airlines United Airlines US Airways US Airways Shuttle Westjet Airlines ASA Re mainde r ANT Air North AAY Allegiant Air AAH Aloha Airlines EGF American Eagle AMT American T rans Air ANX Canadian North Canjet Airlines C3M Champion Air COM Comair Inc First Air FAB Jetsgo Midwest Express MEP NAO Nort h American Airlines Pan American Airways PAA Ryan Intl Airlines RYN Sun Country Airlines SCX T ransMeridian T RZ GWY USA 3000 WOA World Airways

DAL COA

USA

46

Global Market Forecast 2003

Airlines analysed

Europe (156)
ADR AEE EIN AEF AMM BIA BER BON AEA AEL AFR LXR AMC ADH MPD LBC AZA NOV AUA BDY BMA BMI BRA SCW BZH BAL BLX BAW LAJ 90Z CFG CRL CCM CT N CYP CSA BAG EZY EZS ELY ELL ECA EEZ ELO ARP EWG FIN BEE GBL HLF HLX Adria Airways Aegean Aviation Aer Lingus Aero Lloyd Air 2000 Air Baltic Air Berlin Air Bosna Air Europa Air Europe Air France Air Luxor Air Malta Air One Air Plus Comet Albanian Airlines Alitalia Alitalia Team Austrian Airlines Birdy Airlines bmi bmibaby Braathens Braathens Malmo Aviation Brit Air Britannia Airways Britannia Airways AB British Airways British Airways CitiExpress British Mediterranean buzz Condor Flugdienst Corsair Corse Mediterrane Croatia Airlines Cyprus Airways Czech Airlines Deutsche BA easyJet easyJet Switzerland El Al Israel Airlines Estonian Air Eurocypria Eurofly EuroLOT Europe Airpost Eurowings Finnair flybe. GB Airways Germanwings Hapag Lloyd Hapag Lloyd Express IBE IWD ICE JAT JMC KYV KLC AXL KLM UKA LDA LDI LIL LOT LT E LT U DLH CLH LGL MAK DAN MSK MAH MPH ISS MON MGX MYT VKG OAL OLY OHY PGA RYR SAS DAT SLR JKK SEU SAW SWR T AP ROT T CW T HY T RA T VS T YR VIR VEX VLE Iberia Iberworld Icelandair JAT JMC Air Kibris T urkish Airlines KLM Cityhopper KLM exel KLM Royal Dutch Airlines KLM UK Lauda Air Lauda Air Italy Lithuanian Airlines LOT - Polish Airlines LT E International Airways LT U Lufthansa Lufthansa Cityline Luxair Macedonian Airlines Maersk Air Maersk Air Ltd MALEV Martinair Meridiana Spa Monarch Airlines Montenegro Airlines MyT ravel Airways MyT ravel Airways A/S Olympic Airways Olympic Aviation Onur Air Port ugalia Ryanair SAS SN Brussels Airlines Sobelair Spanair Star Airlines Sterling Swiss T AP Air Portugal T AROM T homas Cook Airlines T HY - T urkish Airlines T ransavia Airlines T ravel Servis T yrolean Airways Virgin Atlantic Virgin Express Volare Airlines Re mainde r AIS Aeris ABD Air Atlanta Icelandic KFB Air Botnia GRL Air Greenland AIJ Air Jet LIB Air Lib LIT Air Littoral BIE Air Mediterranee SVK Air Slovakia Airlinair ELG ALPI Eagles AIZ Arkia Israeli Airlines Astraeus FLI Atlantic Airways OGE Atlas Jet AUB Augsburg Airways AXX Avioimpex AZZ Azzurra Air LAZ Balkan Air T our Belair Airlines BPA Blue Panorama Airlines BHY Bosphorus European BUC Bulgarian Air Charter CIM Cimber Air BCY Cityjet EDW Edelweiss Air EUH Euralair Horizons EAF European Air Charter SBE Excel Airways FCN Falcon Air FFR Fischer Air FUA Futura Internat ional GMI Germania HHI Hamburg Intl ISR Israir LT C LatCharter Airlines LT P Latpass Airlines MCS Macedonian Airlines MyT ravelLite NDC Nordic Airlink NAX Norwegian NVR Novair PGT Pegasus Airlines RMV Romavia RZO SAT A Internat ional SHY Sky Airlines SIE Skynet Airlines SLL Slovak Airlines SXS Sun Express AWC T itan Airways WEA White Eagle Aviation WIF Wideroe's Flyveselskap

TCW KLM KLM KLM LDA

VLE

AZA DAT BMA BRA

DLH

DAN

BAW BAW RYR TCW

OAL

EZY

CYP LOT AFR

EWG HLF

Global Market Forecast 2003

47

Airlines analysed

Latin America & Caribbean (49)

AES SER ACQ CBE ARG LNT AMX ALV RPB AJM AUT AVE CHP AVA BWA CMP CUB DCE GLO ACES Aero California Aero Continente Aerocaribe MXA Aerolineas Argentinas Aerolineas lnternacionales Aeromexico Aeropostal AeroRepublica Air Jamaica Austral ARG AVENSA AVIACSA Avianca AES BWIA West Indies Airways COPA Cubana Dutch Caribbean Express GOL 75Z LRC LPE LAN LPR LLB MXA NES PUA RSL SAM SWD LAP T AI T AM VRG VSP Grupo TACA LACSA LAN Peru LanChile LanExpress LAPA Lloyd Aereo Boliviano Mexicana Nordeste LAR PLUNA Rio Sul SAM Colombia Southern Winds TA Mercosur T ACA Intl Airlines T AM Linhas Aereas VARIG VASP TAI TAI LAN LAN Re mainde r ASU Aerosur GRO Allegro Air AFB American Falcon VND Aviandina BHS Bahamasair CAY Cayman Airways RDN Dinar Lineas Aereas FLB FLY LBH Laker Airways LASER Sky Airline SKU SLM Surinam Airways

VRG VRG AES TAM

Middle East (13)

UAE GFA IRA IRC KAC IRM MEA Emirates Gulf Air Iran Air Iran Aseman Airlines Kuwait Airways Mahan Air Middle East Airlines OAS QT R RJA SVA SYR IYE Oman Air Qatar Airways Royal Jordanian Saudia Syrian Arab Airlines Yemenia

Asia-Pacific-PRC (89)
CCA AIC AMU ANZ ANK FJI S3N T HT A3J ANA LLR AAR AUZ BBC CPA CPI CGN CAL CES CBF CNW CSN CXN CXH CXJ CYH HDA EVA FOM GIA CHH IAC Air China Air India Air Macau Air New Zealand Air Nippon Air Pacific Air Sahara Air T ahit i Nui Airlink All Nippon Airways Alliance Air ANA Group Asiana Airlines Australian Airlines Biman Bangladesh Airlines Cathay Pacific Cebu Pacific Air Changan Airlines China Airlines China Eastern Airlines China Northern Airlines China Northwest Airlines China Southern Airlines China Southwest China Xinhua Airlines China Xinjiang Airlines China Yunnan Airlines Dragonair EVA Air Freedom Air International Garuda Indonesia Hainan Airlines Indian Airlines JAZ JAS JAL JEX JAA JT A JAI KAL LNI MAS MDL MDA MNA NJS PIA PAL QFA RBA RNA CDG CSH CSZ SLK SIA ALK T HA T NA UIA HVN VOZ CWU CXA CJG JALways Japan Air System Japan Airlines Japan Airlines Express Japan Asia Airways Japan T ransOcean Air Jet Airways Korean Air Lion Airlines Malaysia Airlines Mandala Airlines Mandarin Airlines Merpati Nusantara National Jet Systems Pakistan Int l Airlines Philippine Airlines Qant as Airways Royal Brunei Airlines Royal Nepal Airlines Shandong Airlines Shanghai Airlines Shenzhen Airlines Silk Air Singapore Airlines Srilankan Airlines T hai Airways Intl T ransAsia Airways UNI Airways Vietnam Airlines Virgin Blue Wuhan Airlines Xiamen Airlines Zhejiang Airlines JAL JAL JAL JAL Remai nde r RSO Aero Asia S3I Air Asia AJX Air Japan KOR Air Koryo RON Air Nauru ANG Air Niugini GAP Air Philippines VT A Air T ahiti ACI AirCalin BKP Bangkok Airways Batavia Air BOU Bouraq Indonesia DRK Druk Air FEA Far Eastern Air T ransport IAA Indonesian Airlines Jatayu Air Pk MGL MIAT - Mongolian Airlines PIC Pacific Airlines PAS Pelita Air Services VAP Phuket Airlines PAO Polynesian Airlines SAI Shaheen Air Intl SKY Skymark Airlines

ANA

QFA IAC ANA QFA

CAL QFA

CHH

CSN CES CCA CHH CSN CES

SIA

EVA

ANZ

CES CCA

48

Global Market Forecast 2003

Cargo carriers analysed

150 freighter operators

Africa (21)
AIN CCE MHS NMB AWD UYC CGP African International Air Cairo Air Memphis Air Namibia AirWorld Cameroon Airlines Cargo Plus DSR MSR ET H FIA HYDR LAA MKA DAS Air Egyptair Ethiopian Airlines First International Airlines Hydro Air Cargo Libyan Arab Airlines MK Airlines SFR XSO1 SAA SUD DT A ST H1 T SY Safair SonAir South African Airways Sudan Airways T AAG - Angola Airlines T ransAfrik T ristar Air

North America (43)

ACA AT N ABX AJT AJIA APW GT I 9CG ROY3 CWC T SU CQ9 CUS1 DHL EWW Air Canada Air T ransport International Airborne Express Amerijet Int ernational Ameristar Air Cargo Arrow Air Atlas Air Capital Cargo International Cargojet Canada Centurion Air Cargo Contract Air Cargo Corp Air Custom Air T ransport DHL Airways Emery Worldwide Airlines EIA LHN T CN FAO FBRI FDX FBF FAB FWL GCO CIC CKSA KFA KHC MALX Evergreen International Express One International Express.Net Airlines Falcon Air Express Falconbridge Ltd FedEx Fine Air First Air Florida West Internat ional Gemini Air Cargo ICC Air Cargo Canada Kalitt a Air Kelowna Flight craft Kitty Hawk Air Cargo Morningstar Air Express MUA NAC NWA OAE PAC QCIA RLT NRG1 T DX UPS JUS WINP WOA Murray Aviation Nort hern Air Cargo Nort hwest Airlines Omni Air International Polar Air Cargo Quest Cargo International Reliant Airlines Ross Aviation T radeWinds Airlines United Parcel Service USA Jet Airlines Winnport Air Cargo World Airways

Europe (29)
AT T ABD ABR AFR AFX AZA AXIS BBD BAW CLX Aer T uras Air Atlanta Icelandic Air Contractors Air France Airfreight Express Alitalia Axis Airways Bluebird Cargo British Airways Cargolux EXS CYGA DHK ELY ELD ARP BCS EAF ICE KLM Channel Express Cygnus Air DHL Air El Al Electra Airlines Europe Airpost European Air T ransport European Aircharter Icelandair KLM Royal Dutch Airlines DLH MPH MSA MNB PNR SRR SNB SWT T NT Lufthansa Cargo Airlines Martinair Holland Mistral Air MNG Airlines Pan Air Star Air Sterling European Airlines Swiftair T NT Airways

Latin America & Caribbean (21)

T US MPX KRE T NO BT 7 CIU CMP ABSA Cargo Aeromexpress Aerosucre Colombia AeroUnion Beta Cargo Cielos Del Peru COPA Airlines DHL EFT A LAN LAU MAS SKYM T SD DHL Expresso Aereo Estafeta Carga Aerea LanChile Cargo Lineas Aereas Suramericanas Mas Air Cargo Skymaster Air Lines T AF Linhas Aereas T PA T CJ TTL VRG VRGC VSP VEC T AMPA Colombia T CB T ot al Linhas Aereas VARIG Varig Log VASP Vensecar Internacional

Middle East (7)

DHL DUB UAE DHL International EC Dubai Air Wing Emirates Airlines FDN RJA SVA Flying Dolphin Airlines Royal Jordanian Saudi Arabian Airlines T MA T MA

Asia-Pacific-PRC (29)
CCA AHK AIC AMU ANA NGE AAA MGE PA3 AAR Air China Air Hong Kong Air India Air Macau ANA Angel Air Ansett Australia Cargo Asia Pacific Airlines Asian Express Airlines Asiana Airlines QFA DXP1 CPA CAL CKK CSN HDA EVA JAL KAL Australian Air Express Blue Dart Express Cathay Pacific China Airlines China Cargo Airlines China Southern Airlines Dragonair EVA Air Japan Airlines Korean Air MAS ANA PIA PAL RPH SIA T RAZ T SE IDT R Malaysia Airlines Nippon Cargo Airlines Pakistan International Philippine Airlines Republic Express Singapore Airlines Cargo T ransAustralian Air Express T ransmile Air T ri - M G

Global Market Forecast 2003

49

B. Detailed passenger traffic forecast

RPK & average annual growth rates for 140 submarkets
Sub market
Africa Sub-Sahara - Asia Africa Sub-Sahara - Australia/New Zealand Africa Sub-Sahara - CIS Africa Sub-Sahara - Western Europe Africa Sub-Sahara - Indian Sub-continent Africa Sub-Sahara - Middle East Africa Sub-Sahara - North Africa Sub-Sahara Africa Sub-Sahara - P.R. China Africa Sub-Sahara - South Africa Sub-Sahara Africa Sub-Sahara - South America Africa Sub-Sahara - USA Asia - Australia/New Zealand Asia - Canada Asia - CIS Asia - Western Europe Asia - Indian Sub-continent Asia - Japan Asia - Middle East Asia - North Africa Asia - P.R. China Asia - Pacific Asia - South Africa Asia - South America Asia - USA Australia/New Zealand - Canada Australia/New Zealand - Western Europe Australia/New Zealand - Japan Australia/New Zealand - Middle East Australia/New Zealand - P.R. China Australia/New Zealand - Pacific Australia/New Zealand - South Africa Australia/New Zealand - South America Australia/New Zealand - USA Canada - Caribbean Canada - Central America Canada - CIS Canada - Central Europe Canada - Western Europe Canada - Indian Sub-continent Canada - Japan Canada - Middle East Canada - North Africa Canada - P.R. China Canada - Pacific Canada - South America Canada - USA

2002 RPK (million)

255 180 33 42,605 1,042 4,539 1,213 825 3,287 107 1,524 37,795 7,570 544 93,613 10,322 40,886 19,959 932 42,212 244 1,875 1,042 104,815 1,391 36,416 14,153 4,026 12,326 2,635 1,851 1,033 22,491 1,672 702 485 1,149 44,821 348 6,821 646 701 9,400 230 657 25,914

AAGR 2002-2022
4.3% 3.3% 5.3% 4.5% 3.7% 5.2% 3.7% 3.8% 4.2% 4.8% 4.7% 5.7% 5.3% 6.3% 6.0% 3.5% 5.7% 4.3% 3.3% 7.1% 4.3% 4.1% 4.7% 5.7% 6.3% 5.7% 6.1% 4.1% 7.0% 3.4% 4.9% 5.3% 6.0% 5.3% 4.0% 4.8% 4.8% 5.5% 5.0% 4.6% 4.3% 5.2% 5.0% 3.9% 3.8% 6.3% continued

50

Global Market Forecast 2003

Detailed passenger traffic forecast

Sub market
Caribbean - Central America Caribbean - CIS Caribbean - Western Europe Caribbean - South America Caribbean - USA Central America - Western Europe Central America - Japan Central America - South America Central America - USA CIS - Central Europe CIS - Western Europe CIS - Indian Sub-continent CIS - Japan CIS - Middle East CIS - North Africa CIS - P.R. China CIS - USA Domestic Africa Sub-Sahara Domestic Asia Domestic Australia/New Zealand Domestic Brazil Domestic Canada Domestic Caribbean Domestic Central America Domestic CIS Domestic Central Europe Domestic Western Europe Domestic Indian Sub-continent Domestic Japan Domestic Middle East Domestic North Africa Domestic P.R. China Domestic Pacific Domestic South Africa Domestic South America Domestic USA Central Europe - Western Europe Central Europe - Middle East Central Europe - North Africa Central Europe - P.R. China Central Europe - USA Western Europe - Indian Sub-continent Western Europe - Japan Western Europe - LowCost Western Europe - Middle East Western Europe - North Africa Western Europe - P.R. China Western Europe - Pacific Western Europe - South Africa Western Europe - South America Western Europe - USA

2002 RPK (million)

1,436 181 34,993 1,224 40,377 13,084 583 4,325 41,199 699 7,429 835 467 680 58 540 767 4,704 29,309 29,272 31,835 31,518 264 14,965 29,762 320 71,076 14,026 64,490 11,115 2,723 67,956 786 4,820 10,787 644,572 16,795 2,110 1,505 97 2,758 23,629 48,065 50,420 49,942 22,508 40,235 4,107 21,150 57,475 298,469

AAGR 2002-2022
4.9% 5.7% 5.9% 3.7% 4.5% 6.4% 4.7% 5.3% 4.5% 4.0% 5.8% 4.3% 5.0% 5.0% 4.3% 8.0% 5.2% 3.4% 5.7% 4.0% 6.5% 3.6% 2.9% 3.4% 4.6% 4.1% 4.8% 4.2% 3.5% 3.8% 6.3% 8.5% 3.6% 3.5% 3.6% 2.7% 6.5% 5.0% 4.3% 5.1% 4.5% 6.9% 5.4% 8.7% 5.2% 5.3% 6.6% 4.4% 5.2% 6.0% 4.9% continued

Global Market Forecast 2003

51

Detailed passenger traffic forecast

Sub market
Indian Sub-continent - Japan Indian Sub-continent - Middle East Indian Sub-continent - North Africa Indian Sub-continent - P.R. China Indian Sub-continent - South Africa Indian Sub-continent - USA Intra Africa Sub-Sahara Intra Asia Intra Australia/New Zealand Intra Canada Intra Caribbean Intra Central America Intra CIS Intra Central Europe Intra Western Europe Intra Indian Sub-continent Intra Middle East Intra North Africa Intra P.R. China Intra Pacific Intra South America Intra USA Japan - Middle East Japan - North Africa Japan - P.R. China Japan - Pacific Japan - South America Japan - USA Middle East - North Africa Middle East - P.R. China Middle East - South Africa Middle East - USA North Africa - South Africa North Africa - South America North Africa - USA P.R. China - South Africa P.R. China - USA Pacific - South America Pacific - USA South Africa - South America South Africa - USA South America - USA Others & Charter World

2002 RPK (million)

1,767 29,218 232 1,900 334 11,118 3,710 43,760 7,137 15 463 660 6,525 568 151,446 766 9,294 1,044 9,270 85 9,834 2,550 338 826 19,321 1,630 4,979 47,180 7,286 5,257 1,438 9,890 175 46 1,081 1,525 31,742 248 2,284 771 3,012 41,478 *) 3,165,700

AAGR 2002-2022
4.3% 5.0% 3.1% 3.8% 4.9% 4.0% 3.5% 5.4% 5.1% 2.9% 5.0% 4.1% 6.6% 5.5% 4.8% 3.1% 3.3% 5.8% 5.7% 3.8% 3.6% 4.9% 5.4% 4.9% 7.2% 4.3% 4.7% 5.6% 4.8% 3.1% 4.5% 4.3% 4.9% 3.1% 4.5% 5.8% 8.5% 3.2% 3.9% 4.8% 6.0% 5.8% 5.0% 5.0%

*) to give a percentage for the charter would be misleading since an increasing amount is treated as quasi-scheduled, and hence included in the OAG

52

Global Market Forecast 2003

C. Detailed passenger fleet forecast

Aircraft 2002 & 2022 (numbers at year end)
Aircraft Type 100 717 737-200 737-500 737-600 A318-100 Avro 100 BAe 146 DC-9-30 DC-9-40 ERJ-195 F100 MD-80-87 Yak-42 125 737-300 737-700 A319-100 DC-9-50 150 707 727 737-400 737-800 A320-100 A320-200 IL-62 MD-80 MD-80-83 MD-80-88 MD-90 Tu-154 175 737-900 757-200 757-300 A321-100 A321-200 Tu-204 210 2002 2022 in service 0 831 84 99 439 0 369 44 0 59 94 226 15 0 204 68 17 0 963 393 463 60 0 2 164 429 662 17 1,051 6 571 237 155 102 18 0 29 776 38 87 161 3 0 21 37 84 3 0 0 0 37 1 0 0 1,723 20 618 566 0 2,487 0 0 13 660 0 714 0 0 22 0 25 2 2,875 43 103 42 8 225 10 2,551 Replace ments 0 23 439 348 32 0 56 94 226 15 0 203 68 17 0 943 155 258 60 0 2 164 416 335 17 821 6 571 215 155 77 16 0 7 677 19 87 94 2 0 Delive ries 831 38 0 0 25 84 0 0 0 0 37 0 0 0 1,723 0 380 361 0 2,487 0 0 0 333 0 484 0 0 0 0 0 0 2,875 21 4 23 8 158 9 2,551 Aircraft Type 767-200 767-200ER A310-200 A310-300 250 767-300 767-300ER 767-400ER A300 A300-600 A300-600R A330-200 A340-200 300 747SP 777-200ER 777-200LR A330-300 A340-300 A340-500 DC-10 L1011 MD-11 MD-11C MD-11ER 350 747-200 747-300 777-200 777-300ER 400 747-100 747-400 747-400ER 777-300 A340-600 450 500 747HD 747SR A380-800 600 800 1000 end 2002 backlog a/c out of production or no orders open market neutral category Open Market Backlog Total 16,302 2,527 18,829 2002 2022 in service 59 0 105 10 26 0 98 0 105 431 37 46 31 151 119 18 0 9 295 0 116 182 0 66 21 72 8 4 0 84 62 79 0 0 8 466 3 44 8 0 0 27 3 0 0 0 0 0 1,935 2 97 37 0 0 0 152 4 1,291 0 211 5 63 48 11 0 0 3 0 3 768 0 0 11 48 738 0 47 5 23 51 203 477 0 0 68 292 101 30 Replace ments 59 95 26 98 0 103 367 0 46 31 151 78 14 0 9 186 0 105 157 5 66 21 69 8 1 0 84 62 73 0 0 8 437 3 42 2 0 0 27 3 10 0 0 0 Delive ries 0 0 0 0 1,935 0 33 0 0 0 0 111 0 1,291 0 102 5 52 23 16 0 0 0 0 0 768 0 0 5 48 738 0 18 5 21 45 203 477 0 0 78 292 101 30

Key:

10,789

20,554

9,064

Global Market Forecast 2003

53

Detailed passenger fleet forecast

Seats 2002 & 2022 (numbers at year end)

Aircraft Type 100 717 737-200 737-500 737-600 A318-100 Avro 100 BAe 146 DC-9-30 DC-9-40 ERJ-195 F100 MD-80-87 Yak-42 125 737-300 737-700 A319-100 DC-9-50 150 707 727 737-400 737-800 A320-100 A320-200 IL-62 MD-80 MD-80-83 MD-80-88 MD-90 Tu-154 175 737-900 757-200 757-300 A321-100 A321-200 Tu-204 210 2002 2022 in service 0 83,100 9,843 10,749 50,109 0 40,793 4,610 0 6,033 8,614 22,973 1,697 0 20,025 7,861 1,986 0 127,229 52,985 57,146 7,456 0 373 25,068 62,824 108,315 2,731 161,815 986 79,345 33,840 22,209 14,897 2,742 0 5,064 146,795 9,220 16,299 30,236 624 0 2,220 4,008 8,875 330 0 0 0 3,940 108 0 0 215,375 2,509 82,444 73,683 0 373,050 0 0 1,872 107,082 0 108,757 0 0 2,882 0 3,025 332 503,125 7,487 18,963 9,479 1,560 40,005 1,783 535,710 Replace ments 0 2,628 50,109 38,573 3,198 0 5,703 8,614 22,973 1,697 0 19,917 7,861 1,986 0 124,720 21,076 31,894 7,456 0 373 25,068 60,952 56,675 2,731 126,617 986 79,345 30,958 22,209 11,872 2,410 0 1,316 128,764 4,789 16,299 18,250 416 0 Delive ries 83,100 3,534 0 0 2,596 8,875 0 0 0 0 3,940 0 0 0 215,375 0 50,535 48,431 0 373,050 0 0 0 55,442 0 73,559 0 0 0 0 0 0 503,125 3,739 932 5,048 1,560 28,019 1,575 535,710 Aircraft Type 767-200 767-200ER A310-200 A310-300 250 767-300 767-300ER 767-400ER A300 A300-600 A300-600R A330-200 A340-200 300 747SP 777-200ER 777-200LR A330-300 A340-300 A340-500 DC-10 L1011 MD-11 MD-11C MD-11ER 350 747-200 747-300 777-200 777-300ER 400 747-100 747-400 747-400ER 777-300 A340-600 450 500 747HD 747SR A380-800 600 800 1000 Open Market a/c out of production or no orders open market neutral category Backlog Total 2002 2022 in service 11,788 0 19,464 1,740 6,049 0 19,726 0 27,795 97,267 9,787 12,508 8,170 39,506 31,612 4,404 0 2,656 80,391 0 34,853 48,204 0 19,050 6,816 19,881 2,594 1,215 0 31,991 24,463 26,272 0 0 3,607 174,569 1,074 17,425 2,580 0 0 14,873 1,659 0 0 0 0 0 483,750 504 21,272 9,787 0 0 0 38,962 996 387,300 0 59,177 1,500 18,431 12,266 3,064 0 0 921 0 855 268,800 0 0 3,994 15,938 295,200 0 17,795 1,906 9,916 17,421 91,350 238,500 0 0 38,093 175,200 80,800 30,000 Replace ments 11,788 17,724 6,049 19,726 0 27,291 83,412 0 12,508 8,170 39,506 21,127 3,408 0 2,656 52,937 0 31,937 41,557 1,000 19,050 6,816 18,960 2,594 360 0 31,991 24,463 24,184 0 0 3,607 164,015 1,074 16,617 576 0 0 14,873 1,659 5,750 0 0 0 Delive ries 0 0 0 0 483,750 0 7,417 0 0 0 0 28,477 0 387,300 0 31,723 1,500 15,515 5,619 4,064 0 0 0 0 0 268,800 0 0 1,906 15,938 295,200 0 7,241 1,906 9,108 15,417 91,350 238,500 0 0 43,843 175,200 80,800 30,000 3,761,260 477,459 1,944,992 4,527,891 1,655,820 4,238,719

Key: end 2002 backlog

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Global Market Forecast 2003

D. Detailed cargo traffic forecast

FTK & average annual growth rates for 145 directional sub markets
Sub market directional
Africa to Africa Africa to Asia Africa to Central America Africa to CIS Africa to Europe Africa to Indian Subcontinent Africa to Japan Africa to Middle East Africa to North America Africa to P.R. China Africa to Pacific Africa to South America Asia to Africa Asia to Asia Asia to Central America Asia to CIS Asia to Europe Asia to Indian Subcontinent Asia to Japan Asia to Middle East Asia to North America Asia to P.R. China Asia to Pacific Asia to South America Central America to Africa Central America to Asia Central America to Central America Central America to CIS Central America to Europe Central America to Indian Subcontinent Central America to Japan Central America to Middle East Central America to North America Central America to P.R. China Central America to Pacific Central America to South America CIS to Africa CIS to Asia CIS to Central America CIS to CIS CIS to Europe CIS to Indian Subcontinent CIS to Japan CIS to Middle East CIS to North America CIS to P.R. China

2002 FTK (million)

9 92 17 5 1,137 32 47 12 426 35 10 9 200 1,561 1,171 24 7,179 289 672 346 9,520 1,015 383 851 4 356 41 2 933 5 100 7 377 38 21 174 19 162 36 45 15 27 29 20 130 120

AAGR 2002-2022
4.4% 4.6% 8.1% 4.7% 6.4% 6.7% 6.0% 6.0% 7.3% 6.9% 4.7% 5.2% 4.5% 6.1% 7.7% 3.8% 6.8% 4.9% 6.6% 6.3% 6.0% 7.1% 5.7% 5.5% 2.6% 8.9% 5.6% 5.2% 4.0% 4.1% 7.2% 6.4% 6.0% 9.2% 5.8% 4.9% 3.8% 5.9% 5.0% 7.2% 4.7% 4.4% 5.4% 5.4% 6.4% 8.7% continued

Global Market Forecast 2003

55

Detailed cargo traffic forecast

Sub market directional
CIS to Pacific CIS to South America Domestic P.R. China Domestic USA Europe to Africa Europe to Asia Europe to Central America Europe to CIS Europe to Europe Europe to Indian Subcontinent Europe to Japan Europe to Middle East Europe to North America Europe to P.R. China Europe to Pacific Europe to South America Indian Subcontinent to Africa Indian Subcontinent to Asia Indian Subcontinent to Central America Indian Subcontinent to CIS Indian Subcontinent to Europe Indian Subcontinent to Indian Subcontinent Indian Subcontinent to Japan Indian Subcontinent to Middle East Indian Subcontinent to North America Indian Subcontinent to P.R. China Indian Subcontinent to Pacific Indian Subcontinent to South America Japan to Africa Japan to Asia Japan to Central America Japan to CIS Japan to Europe Japan to Indian Subcontinent Japan to Middle East Japan to North America Japan to P.R. China Japan to Pacific Japan to South America Middle East to Africa Middle East to Asia Middle East to Central America Middle East to CIS Middle East to Europe Middle East to Indian Subcontinent Middle East to Japan Middle East to Middle East Middle East to North America Middle East to P.R. China Middle East to Pacific Middle East to South America

2002 FTK (million)

1 22 <1 22,630 1,284 3,401 1,748 10 2,654 435 2,553 961 12,641 3,217 1,366 2,497 37 146 80 5 1,288 5 49 43 2,139 40 32 62 84 1,078 576 8 2,665 73 198 3,685 304 182 204 7 55 6 2 108 22 13 5 186 29 7 1

AAGR 2002-2022
4.9% 5.1% 9.0% 4.4% 4.9% 6.5% 5.2% 8.5% 4.9% 6.2% 5.2% 5.4% 5.0% 7.8% 4.7% 6.5% 6.5% 5.6% 7.6% 4.7% 5.4% 6.7% 4.9% 5.7% 4.9% 9.8% 5.7% 6.9% 6.3% 5.1% 6.3% 3.7% 6.3% 5.4% 5.3% 5.9% 6.1% 5.9% 4.3% 7.4% 5.2% 4.7% 3.1% 4.5% 7.2% 3.2% 4.8% 6.2% 8.3% 5.1% 6.6% continued

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Global Market Forecast 2003

Detailed cargo traffic forecast

Sub market directional
North America to Africa North America to Asia North America to Central America North America to CIS North America to Europe North America to Indian Subcontinent North America to Japan North America to Middle East North America to North America North America to P.R. China North America to Pacific North America to South America P.R. China to Africa P.R. China to Asia P.R. China to Central America P.R. China to CIS P.R. China to Europe P.R. China to Indian Subcontinent P.R. China to Japan P.R. China to Middle East P.R. China to North America P.R. China to P.R. China P.R. China to Pacific P.R. China to South America Pacific to Africa Pacific to Asia Pacific to Central America Pacific to CIS Pacific to Europe Pacific to Indian Subcontinent Pacific to Japan Pacific to Middle East Pacific to North America Pacific to P.R. China Pacific to Pacific Pacific to South America South America to Africa South America to Asia South America to Central America South America to CIS South America to Europe South America to Indian Subcontinent South America to Japan South America to Middle East South America to North America South America to P.R. China South America to Pacific South America to South America

2002 FTK (million)

586 7,023 437 177 11,549 699 3,957 701 720 2,493 1,157 2,120 75 334 377 12 4,807 40 264 85 6,258 60 132 465 99 1,008 112 3 2,919 110 493 269 648 211 346 34 42 852 227 23 3,342 30 303 100 3,404 297 16 109

AAGR 2002-2022
4.7% 5.5% 6.0% 5.5% 5.4% 6.3% 6.4% 3.7% 5.0% 7.2% 4.5% 6.0% 8.4% 8.4% 6.3% 5.3% 7.4% 10.5% 6.9% 6.9% 7.0% 5.4% 8.5% 8.5% 5.4% 5.1% 5.7% 5.0% 5.1% 6.2% 4.2% 4.8% 4.0% 6.6% 5.0% 6.6% 4.3% 5.9% 7.2% 6.2% 5.0% 5.7% 4.5% 5.3% 4.8% 7.3% 5.9% 7.1%

World

156,068

5.7%

Global Market Forecast 2003

57

E. Freighter fleet forecast

Capacity (tonnes) Aircraft size segment Feeders Regional Long-range Large Total In service 2002 8,519 22,715 9,107 35,231 75,573 Deliveries New converted 2,399 7,932 10,463 44,669 65,463 13,686 39,210 11,971 35,826 11,694 Retire- In service ments 2022 8,135 15,942 6,366 14,339 44,781 16,469 53,916 25,175 101,387 196,948

Numbers of aircraft Aircraft size segment Feeders Regional Long-range Large Total In service 2002 492 507 161 339 1,499 Deliveries New Converted 109 176 174 372 831 622 871 200 326 2,019 Retire- In service ments 2022 459 354 115 138 1,066 764 1,200 420 899 3,283

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Global Market Forecast 2003