United States

Department of
Agriculture

Foreign
Agricultural
World Agricultural
Service

Circular Series
Production
WAP 5-23
May 2023

Northwest Africa Wheat: Weather Problems Lead to Another Below-Average Maghreb

Wheat Crop in MY 2023/24

Northwest Africa (Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia) marketing year (MY) 2023/24 wheat production is
estimated to be low for a second consecutive year. Later than normal rains during planting, and
drought and heat during much of the season contributed to this unfavorable outlook. This season
will be the fourth of the last 5 years that is below average, with MY 2021/2022 being the
remarkably good year and last year being an exceptionally poor year. The combined total
production for these three countries in the Maghreb region is forecast at 7.3 million metric tons
(mmt) versus 7.6 mmt last year and 11.2 mmt in MY 2021/2022. Sub-par weather prevailed almost
entirely across the region during the crop growing season. Rainfall, the limiting variable, was both
minimal and infrequent in most areas of Northwest Africa. The satellite-derived Percent Average
Seasonal Greenness (PASG) image shows the extent of the poor vegetation health across the
region.

Morocco is the dominant producer of the three countries. It is estimated to produce 3.8 mmt of
wheat compared to 2.7 mmt last year. Early winter precipitation benefitted the crop, however,
limited spring rainfall impeded recovery. Yield is estimated at 1.49 tons per hectare (t/ha), above
Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board
 last year’s abysmal 1.08 t/ha. Rains arrived late in Morocco, lowering seeding rates and creating
sub-optimal conditions. Except for early winter rains, Morocco was especially dry all season; in
general, the farther south, the drier the conditions and the poorer the crops. Several years of poor
weather has lowered Morocco’s 5-year production average to 4.9 mmt. Harvested area for MY
2023/24 is estimated at 2.6 million hectares (mha,) slightly above last year, but 5 percent below
the 5-year average.

Algeria is forecast to produce just 2.7 mmt from 2.1 mha, with a 1.30 t/ha yield. This compares
unfavorably to MY 2022/23, with 3.7 mmt, similar area, and a yield of 1.78 t/ha. The MY 2023/24
crop is estimated to be 21 percent below the 5-year average production. Algeria, also starved for
moisture, saw little relief to salvage its crop during the season. The crops doing the best in Algeria
are in the eastern highlands, where rainfall was most frequent and vegetation vigor was the highest.

Tunisia’s arable land is the smallest of these three Maghreb countries, with total harvested area
dropping 19 percent below the 5-year average to 435,000 hectares. Production is forecast at 0.8
mmt, down 0.4 mmt or 35 percent from last year, and down 33 percent from the 5-year average.
Yield is forecast at 1.84 t/ha, down 24 percent from last year and 17 percent from the 5-year
average. An interesting dynamic has set-up where a very narrow band of healthy wheat exists
along a swath of the northern coast. Sufficient rainfall in the far north has kept this area’s portion
of Tunisia’s grain crop healthy. Conversely, the area to the south is in extremely poor condition
due to a substantial lack of soil moisture. Crop travel to the region by FAS staff in March 2023
underscored the dire effects experienced in Tunisia’s large, central growing region. Visits with
farmers in this region, who had already lost their crop due to the drought, were left with the less-
than-ideal options of either collecting any surviving grain for next year’s planting seeds, or having
the marginal crop grazed off by livestock. In many cases, there was no option; the plants were
already dead as seen in the photograph of fields near Bou Salem, Tunisia. The inset in the
Northwest Africa: Wheat-Growing Area PASG map details the small area of favorable crops in
northern Tunisia.

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 2 May 2023

Global Market Analysis
 Harvest begins in southern Morocco in May, progressing north and east into Algeria and Tunisia.
The bulk of wheat production in North Africa is harvested by the end of June. (For more
information, please contact Bryan.Purcell@usda.gov.)

European Union Wheat: Favorable Conditions for MY 2023/24 Except the Iberian Peninsula

Wheat production in the European Union (EU) for marketing year (MY) 2023/2024 is estimated
at 139.0 million metric tons (mmt), up 3 percent from last year, and 5 percent above the 132.2 mmt
5-year average. Harvested area is estimated at 24.4 million hectares (mha), up slightly from last
year and 2 percent above the 5-year average. Yield is estimated at 5.69 tons per hectare, 3 percent
above last year and the 5-year average.

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 3 May 2023

Global Market Analysis
 Apart from Spain and Portugal where short- and long-term drought have significantly lowered
expectations, favorable crop conditions exist across the EU. Satellite-derived Normalized
Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) anomaly imagery of Europe at the end of April depicts
vigorous vegetation everywhere except the Iberian Peninsula.

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 4 May 2023

Global Market Analysis
 Planting conditions last fall were beneficial with good soil moisture levels, encouraging emergence
and development. Winter was particularly mild with above-average temperatures resulting in
minimal-to-no winterkill. After a dry winter, soil moisture has been increasing during spring with
more rain; however, precipitation must soon taper off to allow for sunlight, inputs, and field work
to aid the crop. Satellite-derived MODIS (NDVI) depicts almost every region in the EU (except
Spain and Portugal) to be above average or at record-level greenness. Wheat production from the
three largest producers is forecast at 36.6 mmt in France (35.0 mmt last year), 22.1 mmt (22.6
mmt) in Germany, and 13.3 mmt (13.4 mmt) in Poland.

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 5 May 2023

Global Market Analysis
 For country-specific area, yield, and production estimates within the European Union (EU), please
go to PSD Online at https://apps.fas.usda.gov/PSDOnline/app/index.html#/app/home, and select
“Downloadable Data Sets.” Select the zipped file for “EU Countries Area & Production.”
(For more information, please contact Bryan.Purcell@usda.gov.)

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 6 May 2023

Global Market Analysis
 Australia Wheat: MY 2023/24 Production Forecast 26 Percent Lower from Last Year’s
Record Season

Australia wheat production for marketing year (MY) 2023/24 is forecast at 29.0 million metric
tons (mmt), down 26 percent from last year’s record, but up 4 percent from the 5-year average.
Yield is forecast at 2.32 tons per hectare, down 23 percent from last year’s record, but up 1 percent
from the 5-year average. Total harvested area is forecast at 12.5 million hectares (mha), down 4
percent from last year, but up 7 percent from the 5-year average.

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 7 May 2023

Global Market Analysis
 After setting a record production last season, Australia is expected to produce a more modest but
still strong wheat crop in MY 2023/24. Wheat production will decline significantly to 29.0 mmt in
MY 2023/24, but if realized would be the sixth largest crop. This follows a record-breaking 39.0
mmt crop in MY 2022/23, and a 36.2 mmt crop in MY 2021/22.

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 8 May 2023

Global Market Analysis
 At present, the soil moisture across most growing areas is favorable for sowing and establishment
of winter crops, including wheat. The area reduction is due to farmers having less suitable area
available in their crop rotations after the previous three big-planted-area years. However, farmers
are expected to favor maintaining high wheat planted area at the expense of canola and barley area,
particularly after a steep drop in canola prices since mid-2022. Also, farmers will be reintroducing
fallow areas into crop rotations which will reduce the available area for winter crop planting.
Sowing is currently underway and will continue into June in the more southern portions of the
winter grain and wheat belt. (For more information, please contact James.Crutchfield@usda.gov.)

Canada Wheat: MY 2023/24 Production Forecast Up on Increased Planting and Higher

Yields

USDA forecasts Canada wheat production for marketing year (MY) 2023/24 at 37.0 million metric
tons, up 9 percent from last year and 18 percent above the 5-year average. Harvested area is
estimated at 10.6 million hectares, up 5 percent from last year and 9 percent above the 5-year
average. Yield is forecast at 3.49 metric tons per hectare, up 4 percent over last year.

Wheat planting is expected to be up more than 6 percent over 2022, according to Statistics
Canada’s recently released March 2023 Field Crop Survey. Spring wheat area, the bulk of the crop,
is expected to increase 7 percent, with durum wheat rising 1 percent. Additionally, winter wheat

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 9 May 2023

Global Market Analysis
 area, planted last autumn, is up 13 percent over last year. Higher prices and strong demand are
cited as reasons for more wheat area displacing minor crops.

USDA expects a small amount of area planted to be abandoned (not harvested). Based on Statistics
Canada reporting, Canadian farmers abandon slightly more than 2 percent of the wheat crop that
is planted or remaining (winter wheat) in the spring planting season, which begins in May. The
abandonment rates reported in the above graphic do not factor winter wheat area lost to winterkill
over the previous winter, and instead, factor only what is abandoned during the primary growing
season. Spring varieties of wheat, the primary portion of Canada’s wheat crop, have lower
abandonment rates than most other grains.

Winterkill in Ontario was reportedly low due to the mild 2022/2023 winter, and conditions are
favorable for wheat in the Prairies, where the predominance of spring varieties are grown. USDA
forecasts yield to be above average, given the positive conditions going into the upcoming season.
(For more information, please contact Aaron.Mulhollen@usda.gov.)

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 10 May 2023

Global Market Analysis
 China Wheat: MY 2023/24 Production Increases Year-over-Year to a New Record

The USDA forecasts China’s marketing year (MY) 2023/24 wheat production at a record 140.0
million metric tons (mmt), up 2.3 mmt or approximately 1.7 percent from last year, and up
approximately 3.9 percent from the 5-year average of 134.8 mmt. Area is estimated slightly higher
than last year at 23.6 million hectares (mha), up 81,000 ha or approximately 0.3 percent on last
year’s 23.5 mha. Yield is forecast at a record 5.93 metric tons per hectare (t/ha), up slightly from
last year at 5.86 t/ha.

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 11 May 2023

Global Market Analysis
 The MY 2023/24 winter wheat crop is at an advanced grain filling maturity stage. Winter wheat
accounts for 95 percent of total national wheat and spring wheat accounts for 5 percent. Typically
winter wheat is sown in September and October; harvesting begins in mid-May and continues
through the end of June. Spring wheat is sown in March through April and harvested in August
through September. Overall, the winter wheat season’s soil moisture conditions during planting
were characterized as wet-to-normal across the major growing regions including Henan, Hebei,
Shandong, Anhui, and Jiangsu provinces. The mid-season soil moisture conditions were normal,
while the end-of-year conditions were generally normal-to-below-average in some areas. The
conditions in late April indicated a favorable finish to grain filling and maturity as well as
favorable harvesting weather, especially on the North China Plain. According to FAS-Beijing in
early March, the winter wheat crop status was better than last year as spring planting was on time
and inputs were supplied without issues. Farmers continue to be incentivized by bumper yields
and high economic returns despite rising input costs. A survey conducted by the Ministry of
Agriculture in Henan province, which accounts for one-fourth of China’s wheat production,
showed that input costs (seed, pesticide, and fertilizer) per hectare for MY 2022/23 were up by
18 percent.

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 12 May 2023

Global Market Analysis
 The early season satellite-imagery-based analysis and assessment of critical crop stages of
planting, crop development, and early flowering stages indicated that production prospects were
favorable. The mid-to-late season satellite assessment indicated significant improvement during
critical productivity determining stages of heading, flowering, and grain filling. In general, the
overall assessment indicated a near‑average area planted and expectations of above‑average
yields reflecting the season’s favorable conditions as well as adequate availability of agricultural
inputs, supplemental irrigation water, fertilizers, pesticides, and high-quality seeds. (For more
information, please contact Dath.Mita@usda.gov).

Russia Wheat: Production Forecast for MY 2023/24 is the Second Highest on Record

Russia wheat production for marketing year (MY) 2023/24 is forecast at 81.5 million metric tons
(mmt), down 11 percent from last year, but up 2 percent from the 5-year average. The forecast
includes 58.0 mmt of winter wheat and 23.5 mmt of spring wheat. USDA crop production forecasts
for Russia exclude estimated output from Crimea. Total wheat yield is forecast at 2.96 tons per
hectare, down 7 percent from last year, but up 4 percent from the 5-year average. Total harvested
area is estimated at 27.5 million hectares (mha), down 5 percent from last year and 1 percent from
the 5-year average.

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 13 May 2023

Global Market Analysis
 Winter wheat typically accounts for about 70 percent of total production. According to data from
the Russian Ministry of Agriculture (MinAg), this season’s winter crop planted area is 17.7 mha.
This is below last year’s planted area due to heavy rains during planting. Russian data does not
provide area estimates per crop, but the main winter crops are wheat, barley, rye, and triticale.
Winter wheat accounts for about 90 percent of the total winter grains planted area. Last year
winterkill was negligible overall. This year, however, imagery from the NASA Soil Moisture
Active Passive (SMAP) mission, indicates some periods of freeze/thaw/freeze events, which
would reveal the possibility of ice crusting. Therefore, the reported MinAg planted area number
was adjusted to account for the expected winter loss.

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 14 May 2023

Global Market Analysis
 Precipitation in autumn was variable, but overall, there was enough moisture for crop germination.
Crops across the Central and the Volga regions entered dormancy in generally above-average
condition, but crop conditions were mixed across the Southern and the North Caucuses districts.
Winter precipitation was below average, especially in the more southern districts. Conditions
improved during April, which aided in proper crop development and timely vegetation green up.
Thus, early-season conditions for winter wheat are favorable, which suggests favorable yield
prospects for this season. Winter wheat yields, however, are still largely dependent on May and
June weather. Harvest of winter wheat will begin in July.

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 15 May 2023

Global Market Analysis
 Spring wheat is mainly planted in the regions bordering Kazakhstan: the Volga, Urals, and Siberian
Districts of Russia. Spring wheat planting typically starts in late April. According to MinAg, as of
May 5th, spring wheat has been planted on an area of 3.5 mha, which is ahead of last year’s pace,
when planted area was 1.3 mha during the same time. Harvest of spring wheat will begin in late
August.

Area, yield, and production estimates for Russia winter wheat and spring wheat are available on
PSD Online. Select “Downloadable Data Sets” and open the zipped file for “Russia Wheat;
Winter/Spring Area & Production.” (For more information, please contact
Iliana.Mladenova@usda.gov.)

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 16 May 2023

Global Market Analysis
 Ukraine Wheat: Production Decreases 21 Percent in MY 2023/24 Due to the Conflict

Ukraine wheat production for marketing year (MY) 2023/24 is forecast at 16.5 million metric tons,
down 21 percent from last year and 38 percent below the 5-year average. The year-to-year decrease
in production is due to the ongoing Russian invasion of Ukraine. Yield is forecast at 3.84 tons per
hectare, down 3 percent from last year and 4 percent from the 5-year average. Harvested area is
estimated at 4.3 million hectares (mha), down 19 percent from last year and 35 percent from the
5-year average.

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 17 May 2023

Global Market Analysis
 At present, Ukraine can be divided into two zones: areas in conflict and areas not in conflict. As
elaborated by FAS-Kyiv, due to the ongoing war there is no official and reliable information about
the status of Ukraine’s agriculture in the conflict zone. As a result, area and production data
currently provided by FAS-Kyiv, Ukraine’s Ministry of Agriculture (MinAg) and the State
Statistical Service of Ukraine, which inform USDA’s forecasts, do not reflect the whole country.
For the MY 2023/24 season the MinAg planted area information for both the MY 2023/24 winter
and spring crops excludes the occupied territory of the Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and
Kherson regions. This is based on an official note included in the daily MinAg planting reports.
MinAg also does not include Crimea. Crimean area and production numbers are extracted from
the agricultural crop reports provided by the Russian Statistical Agency, Rosstat.

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 18 May 2023

Global Market Analysis
 Winter wheat, which accounts for about 97 percent of the total wheat production in Ukraine, is
typically planted between early September and mid-November. As of the 28th of November,
official data published by MinAg for the current season, winter wheat, barley, rye, and rapeseed
have been planted on an area of 4.5 mha. Wheat, which is the major winter crop, accounted for
about 84 percent of the total winter crop area or about 3.76 mha. Wheat in Crimea is predominantly
a winter crop, and its area is on average about 0.3 mha. As of May 4th, MinAg’s spring wheat
forecast for this season is 0.3 mha. Spring planting is ongoing with favorable weather conditions
and is currently 83 percent complete.

Sufficient precipitation during the months of October and November aided the winter planting
campaign and provided necessary moisture for the proper establishment of this season’s winter
wheat. The 2023 winter was mild with mostly above-average temperatures, minimizing the chance
of crop damage due to frost. As shown by the satellite-derived VIIRS Normalized Difference
Vegetation Index (NDVI), current vegetation conditions are mostly above average across most of
the winter gains producing areas.

Generally, wheat yield has been increasing over the last decade because of the increased usage of
improved seed varieties and increased fertilizer application rates. Due to the ongoing conflict,
wheat yields are forecast below average on constrained input use. Ukraine’s agricultural producers
face several major issues, including limited financial resources, shortage of imported seeds,

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 19 May 2023

Global Market Analysis
 fertilizers, and agrochemicals, as well as inadequate access to functional agricultural equipment
and blockage of major ports in the Black Sea region, which has disrupted supply chains.

The winter wheat harvest generally occurs from the end of June until mid-August. USDA crop
production estimates for Ukraine include estimated output from Crimea. (For more information,
please contact Iliana.Mladenova@usda.gov.)

Brazil Corn: Record MY 2022/23 Production Anticipated

Brazil total corn production for marketing year (MY) 2022/23 is estimated at a record 130.0 million
metric tons (mmt), up 5.0 mmt (4 percent) from last month, and larger than last year’s crop by 14.0
mmt (12 percent). Total harvested area, for all three corn crops, is estimated at 22.7 million
hectares (mha), up 0.9 mha (4 percent) from last year. Yield is estimated at 5.73 tons per hectare,
8 percent above last year’s crop, and just under the record yield of 5.77 t/ha obtained in MY
2018/19.

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 20 May 2023

Global Market Analysis
 Harvest continues with a delay for the first-season crop, 64 percent complete versus 68 percent
last year. Reported production is estimated at 27.2 mmt on area of 4.4 mha according to the
Companhia Nacional de Abastecimento (CONAB). Meanwhile, two thirds of the second-season
crop is now in the critical pollination and grain-filling crop stages. The satellite-derived
Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) at this critical time period displays above
average crop vigor in the second-season corn areas. The Instituto Mato-Grossense de Economia
Agropecuária (IMEA) reports a record area in the state of Mato Grosso (7.4 mha). Mato Grosso
accounts for roughly half of safrinha production. The second corn crop is harvested from June to
September. (For more information, please contact Sunita.Yadav-Pauletti@usda.gov.)
 

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 21 May 2023

Global Market Analysis
 Canada Rapeseed: MY 2023/24 Area and Production Increases

USDA forecasts Canada rapeseed production for marketing year (MY) 2023/24 at 20.3 million
metric tons (mmt), up 7 percent from last year. Harvested area is estimated at 8.8 million hectares,
up 2 percent from last year and 1 percent above the 5-year average. Yield is forecast at 2.31 metric
tons per hectare, up 4 percent from last year and similar to the 5-year average yield when omitting
the drought-affected crop of MY 2021/22.

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 22 May 2023

Global Market Analysis
 Canadian farmers are expected to plant more area to rapeseed in 2023 than last year, according to
Statistics Canada’s March 2023 Field Crop Survey, owing in larger part to better returns than
alternatives such as spring wheat – the other major crop grown in the Prairies. USDA factors
planted area abandonment, which is relatively low for rapeseed, in determining its harvested area.
Additionally, Canadian farmers have historically planted just over 2 percent more area, on average,
than indicated in the March survey, requiring a further adjustment to the harvested area estimate.
Conditions in the Prairies are generally normal for this time of year, and the USDA production
forecast assumes an average yield. (For more information, please contact
Aaron.Mulhollen@usda.gov.)

European Union Rapeseed: MY 2023/24 Production Up on Area and Yield Increases

European Union (EU) rapeseed production is forecast at 20.5 million metric tons (mmt), up 1.0
mmt or 5 percent above last year, and up 18 percent from the 5-year average of 17.4 mmt.
Harvested area is estimated at 6.1 million hectares (mha), up 0.1 mha or 2 percent from last year
and 8 percent above the 5-year average. Yield is estimated at 3.38 tons per hectare (t/ha), up 3
percent from last year’s 3.29 t/ha, and 9 percent above the 5-year average of 3.09 t/ha.

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 23 May 2023

Global Market Analysis
 Rapeseed continues to be the dominant oilseed in the EU. A gradual increase in harvested area has
been occurring in the last several years since the neonicotinoid ban was first enacted, but area
remains below the peak in MY 2018/19. At the time of fall planting, prices were relatively high,
encouraging rapeseed planting.

Weather conditions in Europe have been good for rapeseed since planting last autumn. Winter was
particularly mild with above-average temperatures which resulted in minimal-to-no winterkill.
After a fairly dry winter, soil moisture has been increasing during spring with more rain, however,

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 24 May 2023

Global Market Analysis
 precipitation must soon taper off to allow for sunlight, inputs, and field work to aid the crop.
Harvest occurs in June and July.

Rapeseed production in the largest EU producers is forecast at 4.6 mmt in France (4.5 mmt last
year), 4.5 mmt in Germany (4.3 mmt), and 3.4 mmt in Poland (3.6 mmt).

For country-specific area, yield, and production estimates within the European Union (EU), please
go to PSD Online at https://apps.fas.usda.gov/PSDOnline/app/index.html#/app/home, and select
“Downloadable Data Sets.” Select the zipped file for “EU Countries Area & Production.”
(For more information, please contact Bryan.Purcell@usda.gov.)

Ukraine Sunflowerseed: Increase in MY 2023/24 Production Despite the Ongoing Conflict

Ukraine sunflowerseed production for marketing year (MY) 2023/24 is forecast at 11.8 million
metric tons (mmt), up 5 percent from last year, but down 21 percent from the 5-year average. Yield
is forecast at 2.07 tons per hectare (t/ha), down 4 percent from last year and 10 percent from the
5-year average. Harvested area is forecast at 5.7 million hectares (mha), up 10 percent from last
year, but down 11 percent from the 5-year average.

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 25 May 2023

Global Market Analysis
 At present, Ukraine can be divided into two zones: areas in conflict and areas not in conflict. As
elaborated by FAS-Kyiv, due to the ongoing war there is no official and reliable information about
the status of Ukraine’s agriculture in the conflict zone. As a result, area and production data
currently provided by FAS-Kyiv, Ukraine’s Ministry of Agriculture (MinAg) and the State
Statistical Service of Ukraine, which inform USDA’s forecasts, do not reflect the whole country.
For the MY 2023/24 season the MinAg planted area information for both the MY 2023/24 winter
and spring crops excludes the temporarily occupied territory of the Luhansk, Donetsk,
Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson regions. This is based on an official note included in the daily MinAg
planting reports. MinAg also does not include Crimea. Crimean area and production numbers are
extracted from the agricultural crop reports provided by the Russian Statistical Agency, Rosstat.

According to operational planting data published by MinAg, as of May 4th, 1.5 mha have been
planted out of the projected forecast of 5.6 mha. Planting will continue throughout May. Overall,
area for sunflowerseed is expected to increase year-to-year, due to the high profitability of this
crop and easier transportation logistics. April soil moisture across most of Ukraine was above
average, which aided planting, but also caused some intermittent interruptions in some parts of the
country as reported by Ukrainian producers. Weather conditions, however, have been favorable
for planting.

Sunflowerseed yield, which highly depends on quality inputs, is expected to decrease relative to
last year. Generally, sunflowerseed yield has been increasing over the last decade as a result of the
increased usage of imported hybrid seeds and fertilizers. A drop in yield is expected for the MY

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 26 May 2023

Global Market Analysis
 2023/24 season due to a number of issues caused by the ongoing conflict, including the blockage
of major ports in the Black Sea, which has disrupted supply chains. In addition, Ukraine’s
agricultural producers face financial issues, shortages of hybrid seeds, fertilizers, and
agrochemicals, as well as limited access to functional agricultural equipment.

USDA crop production estimates for Ukraine include estimated output from Crimea. (For more
information, please contact Iliana.Mladenova@usda.gov.)

Brazil Soybeans: MY 2022/23 Bumper Crop Pushes Upwards

Brazil soybean production for marketing year (MY) 2022/23 is estimated at 155.0 million metric
tons (mmt), higher by 1.0 mmt (1 percent) from last month, and higher by 24.5 mmt (19 percent)
from last year. Harvested area is estimated at 43.7 million hectares (mha), unchanged from last
month and up 2.1 mha (5 percent) from last season. Yield is estimated at 3.55 tons per hectare
(t/ha), about 1 percent above last month and up 13 percent from last year. USDA forecasts the MY
2023/24 soybean production at a record 163.0 mmt; planting for this crop will begin in October
2023.

Nationally, over 94 percent of the soybean crop has been harvested as of early May. The majority
of the remaining crop is in the southern state of Rio Grande do Sul, where 80 percent of the crop

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 27 May 2023

Global Market Analysis
 has been harvested compared to the five-year average of 90 percent (as reported by Technical
Assistance and Rural Extension agency, EMATER-RS).

Soybean yields in the state of Rio Grande do Sul suffered; forecasts were reduced over 38 percent
from the start of the season. Meanwhile, sufficient rainfall over most of Brazil resulted in abundant
production and record yields in several states. The top yield from the major producing states, based
on data from Companhia Nacional de Abastecimento (CONAB), is a record in Bahia (4.12 t/ha),
followed by a record in Mato Grosso (3.76 t/ha). The Paraná Department of Agriculture
(SEAB/DERAL) also reports a record yield in the state of 3.87 t/ha. In the northeast, most of the
crop has been harvested also on a record area and reported record production in several states. (For
more information, please contact Sunita.Yadav-Pauletti@usda.gov.)

Indonesia Palm Oil: MY 2022/23 Estimated Production Revised Up and Historical Series
Revised

USDA estimates Indonesia palm oil production for marketing year (MY) 2022/23 at 46.0 million
metric tons, up 1 percent from last month and up 10 percent from last year. Harvested area is
estimated at 13.5 million hectares, up 8 percent from last month and last year. Yield is estimated
at 3.41 tons per hectare, down 6 percent from last month and 1 percent from last year.

Indonesia’s palm oil production has been revised upward due to higher-than-expected palm oil
total planted area. Over the past few years advances in remote sensing methodologies have
enhanced the ability to understand Indonesia’s palm oil acreage. In Indonesia’s latest Ministry of
Agriculture plantation statistics publication, generated by the Directorate General of Estate Crops
(DGEC), total palm oil planted area was reported at 16.8 million hectares using remote sensing
data. The newly released data estimates using remote sensing methods showed an additional 2.2
million hectares of planted palm oil area up from DGEC farm survey and local agency-collected
data.

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 28 May 2023

Global Market Analysis
 Total palm oil area is separated into two distinct categories, immature and mature, due to the time
lag of when palm oil starts to yield. It typically takes up to 4 years for an immature palm oil crop
to start maturing. USDA refers to harvested area for the mature crop only. Due to the higher-than-
expected Indonesia palm oil planted area, USDA revised its May harvested area estimate for MY
2022/23 up 1.0 million hectares from last month’s estimate. USDA has also revised its historical
area series for Indonesia palm oil based on remote sensing data. As a result, Indonesia’s palm oil
production historical series has been revised. (For more information, please contact
Justin.Jenkins@usda.gov)

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 29 May 2023

Global Market Analysis
 China Cotton: MY 2023/24 Production Projected to Decline Year-over-Year

USDA forecasts China’s marketing year (MY) 2023/24 cotton production at 27.5 million 480-
pound bales (6.0 million metric tons), down 3.2 million bales or 10 percent from last year and
down 4 percent from the 5-year average of 28.5 million bales. Area is forecast at 3.0 million
hectares (mha), down 5 percent from last year’s 3.1 mha, and down approximately 9 percent from
the 5-year average of 3.2 mha. Yield is forecast at the long-term trend of 2,030 kilograms per
hectare (kg/ha), down 6 percent from last year’s record yield of 2,156 kg/ha, but 6 percent above
the 5-year average of 1,921 kg/ha. Yields continue to be above or near the long-term trend due to
the increasing quantity of cotton produced in Xinjiang province, where yields are nearly double
those elsewhere in China. Approximately 90 percent of China’s cotton is now produced in Xinjiang
province. Most of the major cotton forecasts from industry sources are indicating lower planted
area and yields compared to last year.

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 30 May 2023

Global Market Analysis
 The typical China cotton growing season is April to October. In Xinjiang, planting starts in April,
while in the Yellow River and Yangtze River basins, planting begins in late April and extends
through May. Thus far, the start of MY 2023/24 season is characterized by favorable soil moisture
conditions and good irrigation water availability. The concern, however, are reports of below-
average mid-to-late April temperatures in Xinjiang. Cotton does not do well with cold
temperatures and these conditions may have necessitated replanting.

Xinjiang cotton farmers continue to be encouraged by the government’s maintenance of a target

price-based cotton subsidy. On March 26, 2020, China’s National Development and Reform
Commission (NDRC) published that the target price-based subsidy will continue through 2023.
The projected year-to-year cotton national area decline is due to anticipated decreases in both
Xinjiang and in Eastern China, in the Yangtze and Yellow River basins. Xinjiang’s yields were
extraordinarily high in MY 2022/23, and much China’s projected decline in production is driven
by the expected decline in Xinjiang’s yields. (For more information, please contact
Dath.Mita@usda.gov.)

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 31 May 2023

Global Market Analysis
 World Agricultural Production
U.S. Department of Agriculture
Foreign Agricultural Service / Global Market Analysis
International Production Assessment Division (IPAD)
Ag Box 1051, Room 4630, South Building
Washington, DC 20250-1051
https://ipad.fas.usda.gov/
Telephone: (202) 720-1662 Fax: (202) 720-1158

This report uses information from the Foreign Agricultural Service’s (FAS) global network of
agricultural attachés and counselors, official statistics of foreign governments and other foreign
source materials, and the analysis of economic data and satellite imagery. Estimates of foreign
area, yield, and production are from the International Production Assessment Division, FAS, and
are reviewed by USDA’s Inter-Agency Commodity Estimates Committee. Estimates of U.S. area,
yield, and production are from USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service. Numbers within
the report may not add to totals because of rounding. This report reflects official USDA estimates
released in the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE-584), May 12, 2023.

The FAS International Production Assessment Division prepared this report. The next issue of
World Agricultural Production will be released after 12:00 p.m. Eastern Time, June 9, 2023.

Conversion Table

Metric tons to bushels

Wheat, soybeans = MT * 36.7437

Corn, sorghum, rye = MT * 39.36825
Barley = MT * 45.929625
Oats = MT * 68.894438

Metric tons to 480-lb bales

Cotton = MT * 4.592917

Metric tons to hundredweight

Rice = MT * 22.04622

Area & weight

1 hectare = 2.471044 acres
1 kilogram = 2.204622 pounds

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 32 May 2023

Global Market Analysis
 For further information, contact:
U.S. Department of Agriculture
Foreign Agricultural Service
Global Market Analysis
International Production Assessment Division
Ag Box 1051, Room 4630, South Building
Washington, DC 20250-1051

Telephone: (202) 720-1662 Fax: (202) 720-1158

GENERAL INFORMATION

Senior Director Ronald Frantz 202-720-4056 ronald.frantz@usda.gov

Director Robert Tetrault 202-720-1071 robert.tetrault@usda.gov
Administrative Assistant Vacant
USDA Remote Sensing Advisor Vacant
Sr. Analyst/Technical Lead Curt Reynolds, Ph.D. 202-690-0134 curt.reynolds@usda.gov
Sr. Analyst/ Satellite Imagery Dath Mita, Ph.D. 202-720-7339 dath.mita@usda.gov
Archives Manager/Technical Lead
Sr. Analyst/Technical Lead Jim Crutchfield 202-690-0135 james.crutchfield@usda.gov
GIS Mapping/Imagery Analyst Lisa Colson 202-720-6652 lisa.colson@usda.gov
WAP Coordinators Ifeoma Collins 202-720-0240 ifeoma.collins@usda.gov
Aaron Mulhollen 202-690-0131 aaron.mulhollen@usda.gov

COUNTRY- AND REGION-SPECIFIC INFORMATION

South America, Argentina, Venezuela, Katie McGaughey 202-720-9210 katie.mcgaughey@usda.gov

and Colombia
Western and Central Europe, Bryan Purcell 202-690-0138 bryan.purcell@usda.gov
and North Africa
Russia, Ukraine, Kazakhstan, Moldova, Iliana Mladenova, Ph.D. 202-690-2315 iliana.mladenova@usda.gov
and Belarus
South Asia, Sri Lanka Arnella Trent 202-720-0881 arnella.trent@usda.gov
Bangladesh, India, and Nepal
East Asia, China, and Japan Dath Mita, Ph.D. 202-720-7339 dath.mita@usda.gov
Sub-Saharan Africa, Curt Reynolds, Ph.D. 202-690-0134 curt.reynolds@usda.gov
Nigeria and South Africa
S.E. Asia, Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia, Justin Jenkins 202-720-0419 justin.jenkins@usda.gov
Cambodia and Vietnam
Central America, Mexico, Ifeoma Collins 202-720-0240 ifeoma.collins@usda.gov
and Western United States
Australia, New Zealand, Pakistan Jim Crutchfield 202-690-0135 james.crutchfield@usda.gov
Papua New Guinea and South Pacific Islands
Middle East, Central Asia, Afghanistan Aaron Mulhollen 202-690-0131 aaron.mulhollen@usda.gov
Iraq, Iran, and Syria
Canada, Caribbean, Aaron Mulhollen 202-690-0131 aaron.mulhollen@usda.gov
Eastern United States
Brazil Sunita Yadav-Pauletti, Ph.D. sunita.yadav-pauletti@usda.gov

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 33 May 2023

Global Market Analysis
 The Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) updates its production, supply and distribution (PSD)
database for cotton, oilseeds, and grains at 12:00 p.m. on the day the World Agricultural Supply
and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report is released. This circular is released by 12:15 p.m.

FAS Reports and Databases:

World Agricultural Production

Current: https://www.fas.usda.gov/data/world-agricultural-production
Archive: https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/5q47rn72z?locale=en
USDA's Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) publishes a monthly report on crop acreage, yield and production in major
countries worldwide. Sources include reporting from FAS’s worldwide offices, official statistics of foreign
governments, and analysis of economic data and satellite imagery. The reports reflect official USDA estimates
released in the monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE).

World Markets and Trade

Current: https://www.fas.usda.gov/data
Archive:
https://usda.library.cornell.edu/catalog?f%5Bmember_of_collections_ssim%5D%5B%5D=Foreign+Agricultural+Se
rvice&locale=en
USDA's Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) publishes monthly and quarterly reports which include data on U.S. and
global trade, production, consumption and stocks, as well as analysis of developments affecting world trade in
oilseeds, grains, cotton, livestock and poultry. The reports reflect official USDA estimates released in the monthly
World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE).

Global Agricultural Information Network (GAIN)

https://gain.fas.usda.gov/
USDA's Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) provides timely reports on foreign markets through the Global
Agriculture Information Network (GAIN) database. An average of 2,000 reports are added each year, with reports
going back to 1995. GAIN reports are compiled by FAS’ global market intelligence network, which includes FAS
foreign service officers and locally engaged staff in over 90 overseas offices world-wide. They provide on-the-ground
intelligence, insight, and analysis on nearly 200 countries, delivering information on foreign agricultural markets, crop
conditions, and agro-political dynamics of interest to U.S. agriculture. GAIN reports contain assessments of
commodity and trade issues made by USDA staff and are not necessarily statements of official U.S. government
policy.
Production, Supply and Distribution (PS&D) Online
https://apps.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/app/index.html#/app/home
PSD Online is the public repository for USDA’s Official Production, Supply and Distribution forecast data and reports
for key agricultural commodities. PSD Online data are reviewed and updated monthly by an interagency committee
chaired by USDA’s World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB). The committee consist of representatives from
Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS), the Economic Research Service (ERS), the Farm Service Agency (FSA), and the
Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS).

EU Countries and Russia Wheat: Area and Production Estimates

https://apps.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/app/index.html#/app/downloads (click on PSD Datasets)
USDA's Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) provides country-level area and production estimates for the nations of
the European Union. For Russia, country-level area and production estimates are provided for Winter and Spring
wheat. These datasets are reviewed and updated monthly by an interagency committee chaired by USDA’s World
Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) and can be downloaded through PSD datasets on PSD Online.

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 34 May 2023

Global Market Analysis
 FAS Reports and Databases:

International Production Assessment (IPAD)

https://ipad.fas.usda.gov/
USDA's Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) maintains a dynamic global crop production portal with key information
including World Agricultural Production (WAP) briefs, Commodity Intelligence Reports (CIR), geospatial
applications, crop production maps at a subnational level and crop calendars for the top-20 producing countries.
Additionally, Crop Explorer (https://ipad.fas.usda.gov/cropexplorer/) displays rainfall, temperature,
evapotranspiration, soil moisture, snow cover, and vegetation conditions in charts and maps.

USDA and NASA Global Agricultural Monitoring (GLAM)

https://glam1.gsfc.nasa.gov/
The USDA and NASA Global Agricultural Monitoring (GLAM) system provides near real-time and science quality
Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) from
the satellites Terra and Aqua. The public can view and retrieve MODIS 8-day composited, global NDVI satellite
imagery and time series data. GLAM was developed by NASA’s Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies
(GIMMS) group for USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service.

Global Agricultural and Disaster Assessment System (GADAS)

https://geo.fas.usda.gov/GADAS/index.html
USDA's Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) provides the Global Agricultural and Disaster Assessment System
(GADAS), a web-based Geographic Information System (GIS) tool which integrates a vast array of highly detailed
earth observation data streams, particularly targeted towards agricultural and disaster assessment analysis. GADAS is
an interactive website which provides analysts with a wide variety of routine geospatial products (maps, charts, tables)
they require for comprehensive situational investigations and recurring assessments.

Export Sales Reporting

https://apps.fas.usda.gov/esrquery/
USDA’s Export Sales Reporting Program monitors U.S. agricultural export sales on a daily and weekly basis. Export
sales reporting provides a constant stream of up-to-date market information for 40 U.S. agricultural commodities sold
abroad. The weekly U.S. Export Sales report is the most currently available source of U.S. exports sales data. The data
is used to analyze overall levels of export demand, determine where markets exit, and assess the relative position of
U.S. commodities in foreign markets.

Global Agricultural Trade System (GATS)

https://apps.fas.usda.gov/gats/default.aspx
The Global Agricultural Trade System (GATS) is a searchable database containing monthly U.S. Census Bureau trade
data organized by agricultural commodity and agricultural related product groups. Trade data is searchable by partner
countries and partner groups. Historical U.S. agricultural trade data is available back to 1967. In addition, U.N. trade
statistics (UN Comtrade) may be queried through GATS. UN trade data is available for nearly 200 countries or areas,
dating from the inception of the Harmonized System (HS) of trade codes in 1989 to present. The database is
continuously updated. U.S. trade data is updated monthly according to the U.S. Census Bureau’s reporting system.
UN Comtrade data are updated in GATS after nationally submitted data to the UN are standardized by the UN
Statistical Division and added to the UN Comtrade database.

Other USDA Reports:

World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE):
http://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/
Economic Research Service:
http://www.ers.usda.gov/topics/crops
National Agricultural Statistics Service:
http://www.nass.usda.gov/Publications/

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 35 May 2023

Global Market Analysis
 Table 01 World Crop Production Summary
Million Metric Tons
World Total North North North Former Former Europea Asia Asia Asia Asia Asia South South Selected Selected Selected All
- Foreign America America America Soviet Soviet n (WAP) (WAP) (WAP) (WAP) (WAP) America America Other Other Other Others
Commodity
none none United Canada Mexico Russia Ukraine none China India Indo- Paki- Thai- Argen- Brazil Aus- South Turkey none
- - States - - - - - - - nesia stan land tina - tralia Africa - -

---Million metric tons---

Wheat
2021/22 780.3 735.5 44.8 22.4 3.3 75.2 33.0 nr 136.9 109.6 0.0 27.5 0.0 22.2 7.7 36.2 2.3 16.0 243.3
2022/23 prel. 788.3 743.4 44.9 33.8 3.6 92.0 20.9 nr 137.7 104.0 0.0 26.4 0.0 12.6 10.4 39.0 2.1 17.3 243.7
2023/24 proj.
May 789.8 744.6 45.2 37.0 3.3 81.5 16.5 nr 140.0 110.0 0.0 26.8 0.0 19.5 10.0 29.0 2.0 19.0 250.0

Coarse Grains
2021/22 1,504.0 1,106.3 397.7 25.1 32.8 38.5 53.5 nr 280.9 51.4 12.7 11.0 5.4 59.2 120.6 19.2 16.6 11.6 367.8
2022/23 prel. 1,441.3 1,082.9 358.5 30.5 33.5 44.1 34.1 nr 285.5 51.9 12.9 9.9 5.3 45.7 134.6 18.7 17.2 14.8 344.4
2023/24 proj.
May 1,509.5 1,107.5 402.0 28.3 33.2 42.2 28.7 nr 288.3 53.3 13.1 11.0 5.5 62.6 134.3 13.7 17.4 16.8 359.1

Rice, Milled
2021/22 513.9 507.8 6.1 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.0 nr 149.0 129.5 34.4 9.3 19.9 0.8 7.3 0.5 0.0 0.5 155.6
2022/23 prel. 508.4 503.3 5.1 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.0 nr 145.9 132.0 34.0 5.5 20.2 0.8 6.8 0.4 0.0 0.6 156.4
2023/24 proj.
May 520.5 514.4 6.1 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.0 nr 149.0 133.0 34.5 9.0 20.5 0.8 6.8 0.5 0.0 0.6 158.9

Total Grains
2021/22 2,798.1 2,349.5 448.6 47.5 36.2 114.4 86.6 nr 566.8 290.4 47.1 47.8 25.2 82.1 135.7 56.0 18.9 28.1 766.7
2022/23 prel. 2,738.0 2,329.5 408.5 64.4 37.2 136.7 55.0 nr 569.2 287.9 46.9 41.8 25.5 59.0 151.8 58.0 19.2 32.6 744.4
2023/24 proj.
May 2,819.8 2,366.5 453.3 65.3 36.7 124.3 45.2 nr 577.3 296.3 47.6 46.9 26.0 82.9 151.1 43.2 19.4 36.4 768.0

Oilseeds
2021/22 610.6 479.3 131.4 20.1 0.9 23.1 24.3 nr 62.3 43.2 14.3 3.4 1.0 49.7 135.5 8.7 3.2 3.4 86.4
2022/23 prel. 627.4 501.5 125.9 25.6 0.9 26.3 18.8 nr 68.0 41.4 14.8 2.3 1.0 32.8 160.4 10.0 3.6 4.0 91.5
2023/24 proj.
May 671.2 538.4 132.8 26.9 0.8 26.1 19.6 nr 67.7 42.4 14.9 3.1 1.0 53.7 168.5 7.1 3.8 3.3 99.4

Cotton
2021/22 115.8 98.3 17.5 0.0 1.2 0.0 0.0 1.7 26.8 24.4 0.0 6.0 0.0 1.5 11.7 5.9 0.1 3.8 15.2
2022/23 prel. 116.4 101.9 14.5 0.0 1.6 0.0 0.0 1.6 30.7 24.5 0.0 3.9 0.0 1.2 13.0 5.5 0.1 4.9 14.9
2023/24 proj.
May 115.7 100.2 15.5 0.0 1.3 0.0 0.0 1.5 27.5 25.5 0.0 5.3 0.0 1.3 13.3 5.8 0.1 3.5 15.2

1/ Includes wheat, coarse grains, and rice (milled) shown above.

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 36 May 2023

Global Market Analysis
 Table 02 Wheat Area, Yield, and Production

Area Yield Production Change in Production

(Million hectares) (Metric tons per hectare) (Million metric tons)
Country / Region
Prel. 2023/24 Proj. Prel. 2023/24 Proj. Prel. 2023/24 Proj. From last month From last year
2021/22 2022/23 May 2021/22 2022/23 May 2021/22 2022/23 May MMT Percent MMT Percent
World 221.41 220.30 221.38 3.52 3.58 3.57 780.29 788.26 789.76 1.50 0.19
United States 15.03 14.36 15.01 2.98 3.13 3.01 44.80 44.90 45.16 0.26 0.57
Total Foreign 206.38 205.94 206.37 3.56 3.61 3.61 735.49 743.36 744.61 1.24 0.17
none
European Union 24.28 24.35 24.43 5.69 5.52 5.69 138.24 134.34 139.00 4.66 3.47
United Kingdom 1.79 1.81 1.83 7.81 8.59 8.47 13.99 15.54 15.50 -0.04 -0.26
Serbia 0.60 0.63 0.63 5.75 4.93 5.30 3.44 3.11 3.34 0.23 7.40
China 23.57 23.52 23.60 5.81 5.86 5.93 136.95 137.72 140.00 2.28 1.65
South Asia
India 31.13 30.46 31.50 3.52 3.41 3.49 109.59 104.00 110.00 6.00 5.77
Pakistan 9.17 9.00 9.00 3.00 2.93 2.98 27.46 26.40 26.81 0.41 1.55
Afghanistan 2.05 2.20 2.20 2.45 2.05 2.18 5.02 4.50 4.80 0.30 6.67
Nepal 0.72 0.72 0.72 2.90 2.92 2.92 2.08 2.10 2.10 0.00 0.00
Former Soviet Union - 12
Russia 27.63 29.00 27.50 2.72 3.17 2.96 75.16 92.00 81.50 -10.50 -11.41
Russia Winter 15.22 16.30 15.00 3.43 4.17 3.87 52.19 68.00 58.00 -10.00 -14.71
Russia Spring 12.41 12.70 12.50 1.85 1.89 1.88 22.96 24.00 23.50 -0.50 -2.08
Ukraine 7.41 5.30 4.30 4.45 3.94 3.84 33.01 20.90 16.50 -4.40 -21.05
Kazakhstan 12.72 12.81 12.50 0.93 1.28 1.12 11.81 16.40 14.00 -2.40 -14.65
Uzbekistan 1.24 1.40 1.40 4.83 4.42 4.64 5.99 6.19 6.50 0.31 4.99
Belarus 0.65 0.68 0.68 3.54 3.48 3.38 2.30 2.35 2.30 -0.05 -2.13
Canada 9.20 10.08 10.60 2.44 3.35 3.49 22.42 33.82 37.00 3.18 9.39
South America
Argentina 6.55 5.50 6.50 3.38 2.28 3.00 22.15 12.55 19.50 6.95 55.38
Brazil 2.74 3.09 3.30 2.81 3.37 3.03 7.70 10.40 10.00 -0.40 -3.85
Australia 12.73 13.00 12.50 2.85 3.00 2.32 36.24 39.00 29.00 -10.00 -25.64
Africa
Egypt 1.40 1.45 1.35 6.43 6.41 6.42 9.00 9.30 8.67 -0.63 -6.77
Morocco 2.86 2.50 2.55 2.64 1.08 1.49 7.54 2.70 3.80 1.10 40.74
Algeria 2.08 2.08 2.08 1.20 1.78 1.30 2.50 3.70 2.70 -1.00 -27.03
Ethiopia 1.95 2.30 2.50 2.83 3.04 3.00 5.52 7.00 7.50 0.50 7.14
Middle East
Turkey 7.05 6.80 7.20 2.27 2.54 2.64 16.00 17.25 19.00 1.75 10.14
Iran 6.00 6.20 6.20 2.00 2.13 2.34 12.00 13.20 14.50 1.30 9.85
Iraq 2.00 2.00 2.20 1.75 1.50 1.91 3.50 3.00 4.20 1.20 40.00
Syria 1.10 1.20 1.20 1.82 1.75 2.33 2.00 2.10 2.80 0.70 33.33
Mexico 0.55 0.59 0.55 6.00 6.07 6.00 3.28 3.57 3.30 -0.27 -7.61
Others 7.24 7.29 7.35 2.85 2.77 2.76 20.61 20.21 20.29 0.08 0.39

World and Selected Countries and Regions

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 37 May 2023
Global Market Analysis
 Table 03 Total Coarse Grain Area, Yield, and Production

Area Yield Production Change in Production

(Million hectares) (Metric tons per hectare) (Million metric tons)
Country / Region
Prel. 2023/24 Proj. Prel. 2023/24 Proj. Prel. 2023/24 Proj. From last month From last year
2021/22 2022/23 May 2021/22 2022/23 May 2021/22 2022/23 May MMT Percent MMT Percent
World 344.52 336.37 337.94 4.37 4.28 4.47 1,503.97 1,441.33 1,509.53 68.20 4.73
United States 38.34 35.39 37.59 10.37 10.13 10.69 397.71 358.47 402.01 43.55 12.15
Total Foreign 306.18 300.99 300.34 3.61 3.60 3.69 1,106.26 1,082.86 1,107.51 24.65 2.28
none
China 45.77 45.52 45.44 6.14 6.27 6.35 280.85 285.50 288.30 2.80 0.98
European Union 27.74 26.76 26.73 5.58 5.00 5.48 154.77 133.84 146.40 12.56 9.38
United Kingdom 1.43 1.34 1.32 5.88 6.44 6.29 8.41 8.64 8.33 -0.31 -3.61
South America
Brazil 23.37 24.40 24.77 5.16 5.52 5.42 120.62 134.60 134.33 -0.28 -0.21
Argentina 9.84 9.48 9.38 6.01 4.82 6.67 59.16 45.71 62.58 16.87 36.92
Former Soviet Union - 12
Russia 14.01 13.60 13.55 2.75 3.25 3.11 38.54 44.13 42.15 -1.98 -4.49
Ukraine 8.66 6.23 5.52 6.18 5.47 5.20 53.51 34.06 28.67 -5.39 -15.81
Kazakhstan 2.63 2.63 2.55 1.43 1.79 1.72 3.76 4.71 4.39 -0.32 -6.81
Belarus 0.99 1.03 1.05 3.05 3.11 3.09 3.00 3.20 3.23 0.03 0.94
Africa
Nigeria 13.70 13.50 13.40 1.56 1.59 1.54 21.40 21.51 20.70 -0.81 -3.75
South Africa 3.19 3.18 3.20 5.22 5.39 5.43 16.64 17.16 17.37 0.22 1.26
Tanzania 5.74 5.30 5.30 1.47 1.36 1.36 8.45 7.23 7.23 0.00 0.00
Burkina Faso 4.20 4.24 4.20 1.00 1.16 1.13 4.20 4.92 4.75 -0.17 -3.49
Ethiopia 5.60 5.64 5.65 3.10 3.19 3.24 17.37 17.95 18.30 0.35 1.95
Egypt 1.16 1.16 1.18 7.13 7.13 7.15 8.30 8.30 8.46 0.16 1.93
Mali 5.16 4.80 4.80 1.23 1.49 1.42 6.34 7.15 6.80 -0.35 -4.87
India 23.35 23.80 23.84 2.20 2.18 2.24 51.39 51.91 53.30 1.39 2.68
Southeast Asia
Indonesia 3.90 3.95 4.00 3.26 3.27 3.28 12.70 12.90 13.10 0.20 1.55
Philippines 2.56 2.50 2.57 3.26 3.32 3.27 8.34 8.30 8.40 0.10 1.20
Vietnam 0.90 0.87 0.83 4.92 4.97 5.06 4.45 4.30 4.20 -0.10 -2.33
Thailand 1.23 1.21 1.23 4.36 4.35 4.44 5.35 5.25 5.45 0.20 3.81
Mexico 8.88 8.98 9.04 3.69 3.73 3.68 32.79 33.45 33.24 -0.21 -0.63
Canada 5.91 5.74 5.22 4.25 5.32 5.43 25.12 30.54 28.35 -2.19 -7.17
Australia 6.69 5.74 5.58 2.87 3.25 2.46 19.22 18.67 13.74 -4.93 -26.38
Middle East
Turkey 4.46 4.55 4.56 2.60 3.25 3.68 11.58 14.77 16.77 2.00 13.53
Iran 1.91 1.86 1.86 2.16 2.38 2.48 4.12 4.42 4.62 0.20 4.50
Others 73.19 73.01 73.61 1.72 1.64 1.69 125.90 119.76 124.37 4.61 3.85

World and Selected Countries and Regions; Coarse Grain includes: Barley, Corn, Millet, Mixed Grains, Oats, Rye and Sorghum

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 38 May 2023

Global Market Analysis
 Table 04 Corn Area, Yield, and Production

Area Yield Production Change in Production

(Million hectares) (Metric tons per hectare) (Million metric tons)
Country / Region
Prel. 2023/24 Proj. Prel. 2023/24 Proj. Prel. 2023/24 Proj. From last month From last year
2021/22 2022/23 May 2021/22 2022/23 May 2021/22 2022/23 May MMT Percent MMT Percent
World 207.25 201.24 203.03 5.87 5.72 6.01 1,217.31 1,150.20 1,219.63 69.42 6.04
United States 34.53 32.05 34.03 11.09 10.88 11.39 382.89 348.75 387.75 39.00 11.18
Total Foreign 172.72 169.18 168.99 4.83 4.74 4.92 834.42 801.45 831.88 30.42 3.80
none
China 43.32 43.07 43.00 6.29 6.44 6.51 272.55 277.20 280.00 2.80 1.01
South America
Brazil 21.80 22.70 22.90 5.32 5.73 5.63 116.00 130.00 129.00 -1.00 -0.77
Argentina 7.10 6.70 7.00 6.97 5.52 7.71 49.50 37.00 54.00 17.00 45.95
Bolivia 0.44 0.44 0.44 2.60 2.64 2.70 1.13 1.15 1.18 0.03 2.17
European Union 9.23 8.87 8.65 7.73 5.97 7.43 71.37 52.97 64.30 11.33 21.38
Africa
South Africa 3.00 3.00 3.00 5.38 5.57 5.60 16.14 16.70 16.80 0.10 0.60
Nigeria 6.00 5.80 5.70 2.12 2.20 2.11 12.75 12.74 12.00 -0.74 -5.77
Ethiopia 2.53 2.55 2.56 3.72 4.00 4.06 9.40 10.20 10.40 0.20 1.96
Egypt 0.93 0.93 0.95 8.00 8.00 8.00 7.44 7.44 7.60 0.16 2.15
Tanzania 4.40 4.00 4.00 1.60 1.48 1.48 7.04 5.90 5.90 0.00 0.00
Malawi 1.75 1.75 1.70 2.62 2.12 2.00 4.58 3.72 3.40 -0.32 -8.53
Zambia 1.41 1.12 1.15 2.57 2.43 2.35 3.62 2.71 2.70 -0.01 -0.22
Kenya 2.17 1.90 2.00 1.52 1.53 1.60 3.30 2.90 3.20 0.30 10.34
Uganda 1.10 1.10 1.10 2.55 2.55 2.55 2.80 2.80 2.80 0.00 0.00
Zimbabwe 1.95 1.90 1.80 1.39 0.76 0.83 2.72 1.45 1.50 0.05 3.23
Former Soviet Union - 12
Ukraine 5.49 4.05 3.40 7.68 6.67 6.47 42.13 27.00 22.00 -5.00 -18.52
Russia 2.90 2.64 2.80 5.25 6.00 5.82 15.23 15.83 16.30 0.47 2.96
South Asia
India 9.96 10.10 10.00 3.39 3.43 3.43 33.73 34.61 34.30 -0.31 -0.90
Pakistan 1.65 1.60 1.65 6.43 5.83 6.36 10.64 9.33 10.50 1.17 12.53
Nepal 0.97 0.97 0.97 2.82 2.82 2.82 2.72 2.72 2.72 0.00 0.00
Southeast Asia
Indonesia 3.90 3.95 4.00 3.26 3.27 3.28 12.70 12.90 13.10 0.20 1.55
Philippines 2.56 2.50 2.57 3.26 3.32 3.27 8.34 8.30 8.40 0.10 1.20
Vietnam 0.90 0.87 0.83 4.92 4.97 5.06 4.45 4.30 4.20 -0.10 -2.33
Thailand 1.20 1.18 1.20 4.42 4.41 4.50 5.30 5.20 5.40 0.20 3.85
Mexico 7.09 7.20 7.25 3.77 3.83 3.78 26.76 27.60 27.40 -0.20 -0.72
Canada 1.46 1.44 1.40 9.99 10.07 10.21 14.61 14.54 14.30 -0.24 -1.64
Turkey 0.54 0.53 0.64 12.04 12.83 12.81 6.50 6.80 8.20 1.40 20.59
Others 26.97 26.34 26.34 2.63 2.56 2.67 70.99 67.45 70.28 2.83 4.20

World and Selected Countries and Regions

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 39 May 2023

Global Market Analysis
 Table 05 Barley Area, Yield, and Production

Area Yield Production Change in Production

(Million hectares) (Metric tons per hectare) (Million metric tons)
Country / Region
Prel. 2023/24 Proj. Prel. 2023/24 Proj. Prel. 2023/24 Proj. From last month From last year
2021/22 2022/23 May 2021/22 2022/23 May 2021/22 2022/23 May MMT Percent MMT Percent
World 49.17 47.24 46.47 2.96 3.22 3.17 145.79 151.99 147.37 -4.62 -3.04
United States 0.81 0.99 0.97 3.25 3.85 4.10 2.62 3.80 3.98 0.19 4.95
Total Foreign 48.37 46.25 45.50 2.96 3.20 3.15 143.17 148.19 143.39 -4.81 -3.24
none
European Union 10.30 10.42 10.40 5.05 4.97 5.06 52.05 51.79 52.60 0.81 1.57
United Kingdom 1.15 1.10 1.09 6.05 6.69 6.59 6.96 7.39 7.15 -0.24 -3.18
Former Soviet Union - 12
Russia 7.69 7.75 7.50 2.28 2.77 2.60 17.51 21.50 19.50 -2.00 -9.30
Ukraine 2.68 1.85 1.80 3.70 3.34 3.28 9.92 6.18 5.90 -0.28 -4.53
Kazakhstan 2.16 2.18 2.10 1.10 1.51 1.43 2.37 3.29 3.00 -0.29 -8.73
Belarus 0.35 0.40 0.40 2.86 2.75 2.75 1.00 1.10 1.10 0.00 0.00
Azerbaijan 0.37 0.38 0.38 3.07 2.93 2.93 1.15 1.10 1.10 0.00 0.00
Canada 3.01 2.64 2.60 2.32 3.79 3.77 6.98 9.99 9.80 -0.19 -1.87
Australia 5.10 4.10 4.00 2.81 3.44 2.50 14.34 14.10 10.00 -4.10 -29.08
Middle East
Turkey 3.70 3.80 3.70 1.22 1.95 2.16 4.50 7.40 8.00 0.60 8.11
Iran 1.70 1.65 1.65 1.59 1.82 1.94 2.70 3.00 3.20 0.20 6.67
Iraq 0.60 0.60 0.60 1.17 1.13 1.25 0.70 0.68 0.75 0.07 10.29
Syria 0.80 0.90 0.90 0.81 0.78 1.11 0.65 0.70 1.00 0.30 42.86
Africa
Ethiopia 0.96 0.97 0.98 2.45 2.47 2.46 2.35 2.40 2.40 0.00 0.00
Morocco 1.49 1.10 1.20 1.87 0.64 0.92 2.78 0.70 1.10 0.40 57.14
Algeria 1.03 1.03 1.03 0.93 1.56 1.00 0.95 1.60 1.03 -0.58 -35.94
Tunisia 0.28 0.30 0.20 1.54 1.53 0.85 0.43 0.46 0.17 -0.29 -63.04
South Africa 0.10 0.10 0.11 3.52 3.06 3.41 0.33 0.31 0.38 0.07 21.36
South America
Argentina 1.34 1.57 1.20 3.96 2.88 3.75 5.30 4.50 4.50 0.00 0.00
Uruguay 0.22 0.21 0.19 4.11 4.25 4.16 0.92 0.90 0.79 -0.11 -11.93
Brazil 0.11 0.12 0.13 3.79 3.92 3.96 0.43 0.48 0.50 0.01 2.70
India 0.59 0.45 0.74 2.80 3.02 2.86 1.66 1.37 2.10 0.73 53.28
China 0.51 0.51 0.50 3.92 3.92 4.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 0.00 0.00
Mexico 0.35 0.31 0.33 3.11 2.95 2.92 1.09 0.90 0.95 0.05 5.56
Afghanistan 0.04 0.08 0.08 1.63 1.38 1.38 0.07 0.11 0.11 0.00 0.00
Others 1.74 1.75 1.73 2.33 2.43 2.48 4.05 4.26 4.27 0.02 0.38

World and Selected Countries and Regions

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 40 May 2023

Global Market Analysis
 Table 06 Oats Area, Yield, and Production

Area Yield Production Change in Production

(Million hectares) (Metric tons per hectare) (Million metric tons)
Country / Region
Prel. 2023/24 Proj. Prel. 2023/24 Proj. Prel. 2023/24 Proj. From last month From last year
2021/22 2022/23 May 2021/22 2022/23 May 2021/22 2022/23 May MMT Percent MMT Percent
World 9.63 9.47 9.16 2.36 2.71 2.54 22.73 25.63 23.30 -2.33 -9.08
United States 0.26 0.36 0.36 2.20 2.33 2.39 0.58 0.84 0.87 0.03 4.06
Total Foreign 9.36 9.11 8.79 2.37 2.72 2.55 22.15 24.79 22.43 -2.36 -9.52
none
European Union 2.54 2.37 2.40 2.95 3.22 3.08 7.52 7.63 7.40 -0.23 -3.03
Former Soviet Union - 12
Russia 2.17 2.13 2.10 1.72 2.11 1.95 3.73 4.50 4.10 -0.40 -8.89
Ukraine 0.18 0.15 0.15 2.61 2.60 2.33 0.48 0.39 0.35 -0.04 -10.26
Belarus 0.15 0.16 0.16 2.33 2.42 2.26 0.35 0.38 0.35 -0.03 -6.67
Kazakhstan 0.20 0.20 0.19 0.90 1.16 1.16 0.18 0.23 0.22 -0.01 -3.93
Canada 1.21 1.40 1.03 2.39 3.73 3.56 2.90 5.23 3.65 -1.58 -30.16
South America
Argentina 0.35 0.28 0.29 2.07 2.30 2.14 0.73 0.65 0.61 -0.04 -5.43
Brazil 0.50 0.50 0.51 2.27 2.38 2.39 1.14 1.19 1.22 0.03 2.52
Chile 0.12 0.07 0.10 4.70 4.38 4.74 0.58 0.32 0.45 0.14 42.86
Uruguay 0.01 0.02 0.02 2.21 2.40 2.24 0.03 0.04 0.04 0.00 5.56
Oceania
Australia 0.84 0.80 0.85 2.06 2.00 1.76 1.74 1.60 1.50 -0.10 -6.25
New Zealand 0.00 0.01 0.01 6.25 5.67 5.67 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.00 0.00
China 0.41 0.41 0.41 1.48 1.48 1.48 0.60 0.60 0.60 0.00 0.00
Africa
Algeria 0.08 0.08 0.08 1.31 1.31 1.31 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.00 0.00
Morocco 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.33 0.40 0.31 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 -33.33
South Africa 0.04 0.03 0.03 1.64 1.11 1.50 0.06 0.03 0.05 0.02 50.00
Other Europe
United Kingdom 0.20 0.17 0.17 5.62 5.79 5.45 1.12 1.01 0.90 -0.11 -10.63
Norway 0.07 0.07 0.07 4.29 4.29 4.29 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.00 0.00
Serbia 0.02 0.02 0.02 3.11 2.80 3.00 0.06 0.04 0.06 0.02 42.86
Albania 0.02 0.02 0.02 2.20 2.20 2.27 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.00 3.03
Bosnia and Herzegovina 0.01 0.01 0.01 2.82 4.00 3.43 0.03 0.04 0.02 -0.02 -45.45
Turkey 0.11 0.11 0.11 2.38 2.38 2.38 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.00 0.00
Mexico 0.05 0.05 0.05 2.02 2.00 2.00 0.09 0.10 0.09 -0.01 -10.00
Others 0.06 0.06 0.06 1.66 1.66 1.68 0.10 0.10 0.09 -0.01 -6.93

World and Selected Countries and Regions

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 41 May 2023

Global Market Analysis
 Table 07 Rye Area, Yield, and Production

Area Yield Production Change in Production

(Million hectares) (Metric tons per hectare) (Million metric tons)
Country / Region
Prel. 2023/24 Proj. Prel. 2023/24 Proj. Prel. 2023/24 Proj. From last month From last year
2021/22 2022/23 May 2021/22 2022/23 May 2021/22 2022/23 May MMT Percent MMT Percent
World 4.03 3.66 3.66 3.10 3.31 3.28 12.51 12.11 12.00 -0.12 -0.98
United States 0.12 0.14 0.12 2.09 2.26 2.20 0.25 0.31 0.27 -0.05 -14.74
Total Foreign 3.92 3.53 3.54 3.13 3.35 3.31 12.26 11.80 11.73 -0.07 -0.62
none
European Union 1.93 1.76 1.83 4.15 4.28 4.23 8.01 7.54 7.75 0.21 2.84
Former Soviet Union - 12
Russia 0.99 0.88 0.88 1.73 2.27 2.17 1.72 2.00 1.90 -0.10 -5.00
Belarus 0.33 0.30 0.31 2.46 2.50 2.52 0.80 0.75 0.78 0.03 4.00
Ukraine 0.18 0.10 0.08 3.43 2.85 2.88 0.60 0.29 0.23 -0.06 -19.30
Kazakhstan 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.91 1.76 1.33 0.04 0.06 0.04 -0.02 -33.33
Turkey 0.12 0.11 0.11 2.87 2.91 2.91 0.33 0.32 0.32 0.00 0.00
Canada 0.12 0.15 0.12 3.21 3.42 3.26 0.37 0.52 0.38 -0.15 -27.88
South America
Chile 0.00 0.00 0.00 5.00 5.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.00 -0.01 -100.00
Argentina 0.12 0.09 0.09 1.88 1.84 1.83 0.23 0.16 0.17 0.01 3.13
Other Europe
Bosnia and Herzegovina 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00
Switzerland 0.00 0.00 0.00 5.50 5.50 5.50 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00
Serbia 0.01 0.01 0.01 3.80 3.00 3.33 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.00 11.11
Australia 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.71 0.71 0.71 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.00 0.00
Others 0.04 0.04 0.04 2.18 2.18 2.20 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.00 1.04

World and Selected Countries and Regions

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 42 May 2023

Global Market Analysis
 Table 08 Sorghum Area, Yield, and Production

Area Yield Production Change in Production

(Million hectares) (Metric tons per hectare) (Million metric tons)
Country / Region
Prel. 2023/24 Proj. Prel. 2023/24 Proj. Prel. 2023/24 Proj. From last month From last year
2021/22 2022/23 May 2021/22 2022/23 May 2021/22 2022/23 May MMT Percent MMT Percent
World 40.75 40.30 41.45 1.53 1.42 1.50 62.28 57.34 62.18 4.84 8.44
United States 2.63 1.85 2.10 4.33 2.58 4.35 11.38 4.77 9.14 4.37 91.70
Total Foreign 38.12 38.45 39.35 1.34 1.37 1.35 50.91 52.57 53.04 0.47 0.88
none
Africa
Nigeria 5.70 5.70 5.70 1.18 1.18 1.18 6.73 6.74 6.70 -0.04 -0.62
Ethiopia 1.65 1.66 1.66 2.70 2.53 2.65 4.45 4.20 4.40 0.20 4.76
Sudan 6.92 7.00 7.50 0.51 0.75 0.67 3.53 5.25 5.00 -0.25 -4.73
Burkina Faso 1.90 1.90 1.90 0.87 1.06 1.00 1.64 2.01 1.90 -0.11 -5.66
Mali 1.55 1.50 1.50 0.81 1.05 1.00 1.25 1.58 1.50 -0.08 -5.18
Niger 3.52 3.70 3.70 0.34 0.32 0.51 1.21 1.20 1.90 0.70 58.33
Cameroon 0.74 0.74 0.74 1.62 1.62 1.62 1.20 1.20 1.20 0.00 0.00
Tanzania 1.04 1.00 1.00 1.04 1.00 1.00 1.08 1.00 1.00 0.00 0.00
Egypt 0.15 0.15 0.15 5.00 5.00 5.00 0.75 0.75 0.75 0.00 0.00
Uganda 0.25 0.25 0.25 1.32 0.90 0.90 0.33 0.23 0.23 0.00 0.00
Ghana 0.31 0.31 0.31 1.05 1.49 1.13 0.32 0.46 0.35 -0.11 -24.41
Mozambique 0.25 0.15 0.25 0.64 1.04 0.64 0.16 0.15 0.16 0.01 4.58
South Africa 0.04 0.04 0.04 2.78 3.29 3.75 0.10 0.12 0.15 0.04 30.43
Mexico 1.40 1.42 1.42 3.47 3.42 3.38 4.84 4.85 4.80 -0.05 -1.03
South America
Argentina 0.93 0.85 0.80 3.68 4.00 4.13 3.40 3.40 3.30 -0.10 -2.94
Brazil 0.95 1.07 1.23 3.20 2.72 2.93 3.04 2.92 3.60 0.68 23.29
South Asia
India 3.80 3.75 4.10 1.09 1.09 1.07 4.15 4.10 4.40 0.30 7.32
Pakistan 0.08 0.22 0.22 0.83 0.63 0.63 0.06 0.14 0.14 0.00 0.00
China 0.63 0.63 0.63 4.76 4.76 4.76 3.00 3.00 3.00 0.00 0.00
Australia 0.62 0.70 0.60 4.26 3.57 3.00 2.65 2.50 1.80 -0.70 -28.00
European Union 0.15 0.13 0.15 5.41 4.27 5.00 0.80 0.55 0.75 0.20 36.12
Others 5.57 5.60 5.51 1.12 1.11 1.09 6.22 6.22 6.02 -0.21 -3.33

World and Selected Countries and Regions

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 43 May 2023

Global Market Analysis
 Table 09 Rice Area, Yield, and Production

World and Selected Countries and Regions

Area Yield Production Change in Production

(Million hectares) (Metric tons per hectare) (Million metric tons)
Country / Region
Prel. 2023/24 Proj. Prel. 2023/24 Proj. Prel. 2023/24 Proj. From last month From last year
2021/22 2022/23 May 2021/22 2022/23 May 2021/22 2022/23 May MMT Percent MMT Percent
World 165.47 164.55 166.38 4.64 4.61 4.67 513.87 508.41 520.52 12.11 2.38
United States 1.01 0.88 1.03 8.64 8.28 8.50 6.08 5.09 6.12 1.03 20.17
Total Foreign 164.46 163.67 165.35 4.61 4.60 4.65 507.78 503.32 514.41 11.08 2.20
none
East Asia
China 29.92 29.45 29.85 7.11 7.08 7.13 148.99 145.95 149.00 3.05 2.09
Japan 1.52 1.50 1.48 6.90 6.86 6.91 7.64 7.48 7.45 -0.03 -0.40
Korea, South 0.73 0.73 0.70 7.12 6.88 6.77 3.88 3.76 3.57 -0.19 -5.13
Korea, North 0.50 0.50 0.50 4.18 4.18 4.18 1.36 1.36 1.36 0.00 0.00
South Asia
India 46.28 47.00 47.00 4.20 4.21 4.25 129.47 132.00 133.00 1.00 0.76
Bangladesh 11.62 11.60 11.85 4.63 4.70 4.68 35.85 36.35 37.00 0.65 1.79
Pakistan 3.54 3.00 3.50 3.95 2.75 3.86 9.32 5.50 9.00 3.50 63.64
Nepal 1.48 1.45 1.45 3.47 3.79 3.79 3.42 3.65 3.65 0.00 0.00
Sri Lanka 1.13 1.09 1.10 3.56 3.76 4.09 2.73 2.78 3.06 0.28 9.95
Southeast Asia
Indonesia 11.60 11.55 11.60 4.67 4.64 4.68 34.40 34.00 34.45 0.45 1.32
Vietnam 7.19 7.17 7.16 5.96 6.03 6.03 26.77 27.00 27.00 0.00 0.00
Thailand 10.70 10.85 10.90 2.81 2.82 2.85 19.88 20.20 20.50 0.30 1.49
Burma 7.00 6.80 7.00 2.77 2.71 2.79 12.40 11.80 12.50 0.70 5.93
Philippines 4.80 4.85 4.80 4.15 4.12 4.17 12.54 12.60 12.60 0.00 0.00
Cambodia 3.27 3.31 3.37 2.89 2.94 3.03 5.77 5.93 6.22 0.29 4.87
Laos 0.94 0.95 0.96 3.28 3.26 3.26 1.95 1.95 1.96 0.01 0.51
Malaysia 0.65 0.66 0.66 3.97 3.99 4.08 1.68 1.70 1.75 0.05 2.94
South America
Brazil 1.62 1.47 1.40 6.67 6.80 7.14 7.34 6.80 6.80 0.00 0.00
Peru 0.42 0.42 0.43 8.37 8.55 8.52 2.43 2.48 2.50 0.02 0.64
Africa
Egypt 0.50 0.60 0.63 8.41 8.70 8.70 2.90 3.60 3.78 0.18 5.00
Madagascar 1.60 1.60 1.60 2.74 2.75 2.75 2.81 2.82 2.82 0.00 0.00
Nigeria 3.65 3.50 3.50 2.29 2.43 2.37 5.26 5.36 5.23 -0.13 -2.35
European Union 0.40 0.33 0.35 6.64 6.32 6.51 1.73 1.34 1.46 0.12 9.28
Iran 0.56 0.57 0.57 5.14 5.32 5.26 1.90 2.00 1.98 -0.02 -1.00
Others 12.84 12.73 13.00 2.99 2.97 3.01 25.37 24.91 25.76 0.85 3.42

Yield is on a rough basis, before the milling process. Production is on a milled basis, after the milling process.

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 44 May 2023

Global Market Analysis
 Table 10 Total Oilseed Area, Yield, and Production

World and Selected Countries and Regions

Area Yield Production Change in Production

(Million hectares) (Metric tons per hectare) (Million metric tons)
Country / Region
Prel. 2023/24 Proj. Prel. 2023/24 Proj. Prel. 2023/24 Proj. From last month From last year
2021/22 2022/23 May 2021/22 2022/23 May 2021/22 2022/23 May MMT Percent MMT Percent
World Total -- -- -- -- -- -- 610.63 627.44 671.23 43.79 6.98
Total Foreign -- -- -- -- -- -- 479.28 501.52 538.38 36.86 7.35
Oilseed, Copra -- -- -- -- -- -- 6.07 6.03 6.05 0.02 0.36
Oilseed, Palm Kernel -- -- -- -- -- -- 19.13 20.12 20.50 0.37 1.85
none
Major OilSeeds 260.57 264.54 270.53 2.25 2.27 2.38 585.43 601.29 644.68 43.39 7.22
United States 41.06 39.99 40.63 3.20 3.15 3.27 131.35 125.93 132.85 6.92 5.50
none
Foreign Oilseeds 219.50 224.55 229.90 2.07 2.12 2.23 454.08 475.36 511.83 36.47 7.67
South America 68.95 70.17 73.73 2.86 2.96 3.25 197.08 207.58 239.61 32.02 15.43
Brazil 43.46 45.59 47.51 3.11 3.52 3.54 135.33 160.27 168.35 8.08 5.04
Argentina 18.77 18.00 19.16 2.65 1.82 2.80 49.67 32.81 53.74 20.92 63.77
Paraguay 3.51 3.56 3.65 1.23 2.52 2.78 4.31 8.97 10.14 1.18 13.10
Bolivia 1.69 1.57 1.63 2.25 2.10 2.13 3.80 3.30 3.48 0.18 5.37
Uruguay 1.38 1.31 1.64 2.63 1.44 2.15 3.62 1.88 3.53 1.65 87.77
China 24.10 26.19 26.53 2.59 2.59 2.55 62.32 67.96 67.68 -0.28 -0.42
South Asia 41.80 42.83 43.21 1.11 1.03 1.06 46.59 44.02 45.66 1.64 3.73
India 38.48 39.48 39.87 1.10 1.02 1.04 42.19 40.42 41.34 0.92 2.28
Pakistan 2.59 2.43 2.42 1.31 0.96 1.28 3.38 2.34 3.09 0.74 31.70
European Union 11.06 12.51 12.66 2.80 2.54 2.81 30.98 31.79 35.58 3.79 11.93
United Kingdom 0.31 0.36 0.41 3.20 3.74 3.50 0.98 1.36 1.44 0.07 5.44
Former Soviet Union - 12 27.74 26.97 28.02 1.89 1.87 1.82 52.46 50.34 50.99 0.65 1.30
Russia 14.23 14.74 15.00 1.62 1.78 1.74 23.11 26.25 26.10 -0.15 -0.57
Ukraine 9.58 8.10 8.85 2.54 2.32 2.21 24.32 18.80 19.55 0.75 3.99
Uzbekistan 1.08 1.09 1.05 1.11 1.27 1.21 1.20 1.38 1.26 -0.12 -8.54
Canada 11.06 10.76 11.04 1.81 2.38 2.44 20.05 25.63 26.89 1.26 4.91
Africa 24.35 23.77 24.02 0.97 1.05 1.05 23.71 24.88 25.34 0.46 1.83
Nigeria 4.97 4.87 4.92 1.11 1.17 1.16 5.50 5.68 5.70 0.02 0.28
South Africa 1.66 1.76 1.85 1.91 2.08 2.04 3.17 3.65 3.78 0.13 3.48
Tanzania 1.24 1.35 1.35 0.98 0.93 0.93 1.21 1.25 1.25 0.00 0.00
Southeast Asia 3.12 3.08 3.05 1.36 1.36 1.39 4.23 4.18 4.23 0.05 1.12
Burma 1.95 1.94 1.95 1.16 1.18 1.24 2.25 2.28 2.41 0.13 5.47
Indonesia 0.90 0.87 0.84 1.55 1.52 1.49 1.39 1.32 1.26 -0.07 -4.92
Australia 3.94 4.65 4.21 2.20 2.16 1.69 8.68 10.05 7.13 -2.92 -29.05
Turkey 1.32 1.48 1.24 2.55 2.69 2.68 3.37 3.98 3.34 -0.64 -16.13
Others 1.76 1.78 1.79 2.06 2.02 2.22 3.63 3.60 3.97 0.37 10.27

World Total and Total Foreign: (Major Oilseeds plus copra and palm kernel) Major Oilseeds: (soybeans, sunflowerseeds, peanuts(inshell), cottonseed and
rapeseed)

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 45 May 2023

Global Market Analysis
 Table 11 Soybean Area, Yield, and Production

Area Yield Production Change in Production

(Million hectares) (Metric tons per hectare) (Million metric tons)
Country / Region
Prel. 2023/24 Proj. Prel. 2023/24 Proj. Prel. 2023/24 Proj. From last month From last year
2021/22 2022/23 May 2021/22 2022/23 May 2021/22 2022/23 May MMT Percent MMT Percent
World 130.99 134.55 139.78 2.75 2.75 2.94 359.85 370.42 410.59 40.16 10.84
United States 34.93 34.94 35.09 3.48 3.33 3.50 121.53 116.38 122.74 6.37 5.47
Total Foreign 96.06 99.61 104.69 2.48 2.55 2.75 238.32 254.04 287.84 33.80 13.30
none
South America
Brazil 41.60 43.70 45.60 3.14 3.55 3.57 130.50 155.00 163.00 8.00 5.16
Argentina 15.90 15.00 16.40 2.76 1.80 2.93 43.90 27.00 48.00 21.00 77.78
Paraguay 3.42 3.45 3.55 1.22 2.55 2.82 4.18 8.80 10.00 1.20 13.64
Bolivia 1.55 1.43 1.50 2.32 2.17 2.20 3.60 3.10 3.30 0.20 6.45
Uruguay 1.16 0.90 1.28 2.80 1.33 2.27 3.23 1.20 2.90 1.70 141.67
East Asia
China 8.42 10.24 10.45 1.95 1.98 1.96 16.40 20.28 20.50 0.22 1.08
Korea, South 0.05 0.06 0.07 2.06 2.03 1.93 0.11 0.13 0.13 0.00 0.77
Korea, North 0.17 0.16 0.16 1.15 1.15 1.15 0.19 0.18 0.18 0.00 0.00
Japan 0.15 0.15 0.16 1.63 1.58 1.63 0.24 0.24 0.25 0.02 6.30
India 12.15 12.00 12.50 0.98 1.00 0.96 11.89 12.00 12.00 0.00 0.00
Canada 2.08 2.12 2.20 2.99 3.09 2.95 6.22 6.54 6.50 -0.04 -0.66
Former Soviet Union - 12
Russia 2.99 3.36 3.40 1.59 1.79 1.74 4.76 6.00 5.90 -0.10 -1.60
Ukraine 1.44 1.70 2.00 2.64 2.41 2.30 3.80 4.10 4.60 0.50 12.20
European Union 0.98 1.08 1.10 2.83 2.26 2.82 2.77 2.44 3.10 0.66 27.10
Southeast Asia
Indonesia 0.35 0.33 0.32 1.21 1.18 1.17 0.43 0.39 0.38 -0.02 -3.85
Vietnam 0.03 0.03 0.03 1.61 1.60 1.61 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.00 -6.25
Thailand 0.03 0.03 0.03 1.63 1.63 1.63 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.00 0.00
Burma 0.13 0.13 0.12 1.04 1.04 1.04 0.14 0.13 0.13 -0.01 -3.85
Serbia 0.24 0.24 0.24 2.28 1.70 3.09 0.54 0.40 0.73 0.33 81.70
Mexico 0.18 0.12 0.15 1.57 1.52 1.57 0.29 0.18 0.24 0.06 34.29
Africa
South Africa 0.93 1.15 1.20 2.41 2.40 2.33 2.23 2.76 2.80 0.05 1.63
Nigeria 1.20 1.20 1.20 0.93 1.04 1.04 1.12 1.25 1.25 0.00 0.00
Zambia 0.30 0.38 0.38 1.35 1.27 1.27 0.41 0.48 0.48 0.00 0.00
Uganda 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.60 0.60 0.60 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.00 0.00
Middle East
Iran 0.07 0.08 0.07 2.29 2.27 2.36 0.16 0.17 0.17 -0.01 -2.94
Turkey 0.03 0.04 0.03 3.91 4.14 4.12 0.13 0.15 0.14 -0.01 -3.45
Others 0.47 0.51 0.52 2.04 2.00 2.04 0.96 1.02 1.06 0.04 4.22

World and Selected Countries and Regions

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 46 May 2023

Global Market Analysis
 Table 12 Cottonseed Area, Yield, and Production

Area Yield Production Change in Production

(Million hectares) (Metric tons per hectare) (Million metric tons)
Country / Region
Prel. 2023/24 Proj. Prel. 2023/24 Proj. Prel. 2023/24 Proj. From last month From last year
2021/22 2022/23 May 2021/22 2022/23 May 2021/22 2022/23 May MMT Percent MMT Percent
World 31.93 31.30 30.99 1.30 1.35 1.36 41.65 42.40 42.28 -0.12 -0.29
United States 4.16 2.96 3.53 1.16 1.35 1.24 4.83 4.01 4.39 0.38 9.51
Total Foreign 27.78 28.35 27.46 1.33 1.35 1.38 36.82 38.40 37.89 -0.50 -1.31
none
South Asia
India 12.37 13.00 12.40 0.84 0.80 0.87 10.36 10.40 10.83 0.43 4.09
Pakistan 2.00 1.80 1.80 1.30 0.94 1.28 2.60 1.69 2.30 0.61 35.94
China 3.10 3.10 2.95 3.39 3.88 3.65 10.50 12.03 10.78 -1.25 -10.42
Former Soviet Union - 12
Uzbekistan 1.06 1.07 1.03 1.07 1.24 1.18 1.14 1.33 1.21 -0.12 -8.86
Turkmenistan 0.55 0.55 0.55 0.64 0.64 0.64 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.00 0.00
Tajikistan 0.17 0.17 0.17 1.09 1.11 1.15 0.19 0.19 0.20 0.01 3.72
Kazakhstan 0.11 0.13 0.12 0.84 1.05 0.94 0.09 0.13 0.11 -0.02 -13.74
South America
Brazil 1.60 1.63 1.63 2.43 2.65 2.70 3.89 4.32 4.40 0.08 1.92
Argentina 0.48 0.40 0.41 0.68 1.06 1.17 0.33 0.43 0.48 0.06 13.18
Middle East
Turkey 0.45 0.56 0.43 2.76 2.88 2.69 1.24 1.60 1.14 -0.46 -28.56
Syria 0.03 0.03 0.03 2.20 2.20 2.20 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.00 0.00
Iran 0.10 0.10 0.10 1.35 1.35 1.35 0.14 0.14 0.14 0.00 0.00
Australia 0.64 0.68 0.65 2.77 2.42 2.68 1.76 1.65 1.74 0.09 5.45
European Union 0.32 0.31 0.29 1.66 1.70 1.64 0.53 0.53 0.48 -0.05 -8.76
Africa
Burkina Faso 0.60 0.62 0.61 0.45 0.40 0.42 0.27 0.25 0.26 0.01 2.82
Mali 0.72 0.69 0.70 0.56 0.41 0.51 0.40 0.28 0.35 0.07 25.09
Cameroon 0.23 0.23 0.23 1.39 1.41 1.30 0.32 0.33 0.30 -0.03 -7.69
Cote d'Ivoire 0.47 0.41 0.39 0.60 0.32 0.52 0.28 0.13 0.20 0.07 52.63
Benin 0.64 0.58 0.64 0.73 0.75 0.72 0.47 0.43 0.46 0.03 7.67
Tanzania 0.24 0.35 0.35 0.46 0.43 0.43 0.11 0.15 0.15 0.00 0.00
Egypt 0.09 0.14 0.15 1.00 0.92 0.92 0.09 0.13 0.14 0.01 6.98
Nigeria 0.27 0.27 0.27 0.56 0.56 0.56 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.00 0.00
Uganda 0.10 0.10 0.10 1.40 1.49 1.49 0.14 0.15 0.15 0.00 0.00
Zimbabwe 0.25 0.24 0.24 0.33 0.34 0.34 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.00 0.00
Sudan 0.20 0.20 0.20 1.41 1.53 1.53 0.28 0.31 0.31 0.00 0.00
Mexico 0.15 0.20 0.17 2.71 2.71 2.56 0.42 0.54 0.44 -0.11 -19.44
Burma 0.16 0.15 0.16 0.81 0.76 1.25 0.13 0.11 0.19 0.08 70.18
Others 0.70 0.65 0.71 0.74 0.80 0.72 0.52 0.52 0.51 -0.02 -3.26

World and Selected Countries and Regions

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 47 May 2023

Global Market Analysis
 Table 13 Peanut Area, Yield, and Production

Area Yield Production Change in Production

(Million hectares) (Metric tons per hectare) (Million metric tons)
Country / Region
Prel. 2023/24 Proj. Prel. 2023/24 Proj. Prel. 2023/24 Proj. From last month From last year
2021/22 2022/23 May 2021/22 2022/23 May 2021/22 2022/23 May MMT Percent MMT Percent
World 30.64 29.26 29.64 1.69 1.69 1.70 51.85 49.53 50.44 0.91 1.83
United States 0.62 0.56 0.60 4.63 4.50 4.74 2.89 2.53 2.85 0.32 12.79
Total Foreign 30.01 28.69 29.04 1.63 1.64 1.64 48.96 47.00 47.59 0.58 1.24
none
China 4.81 4.80 4.82 3.81 3.81 3.80 18.31 18.30 18.30 0.00 0.00
Africa
Nigeria 3.50 3.40 3.45 1.21 1.26 1.25 4.23 4.28 4.30 0.02 0.37
Sudan 3.94 3.00 3.00 0.60 0.83 0.83 2.36 2.50 2.50 0.00 0.00
Senegal 1.21 1.23 1.23 1.38 1.23 1.40 1.68 1.50 1.72 0.21 14.18
Cameroon 0.43 0.43 0.43 1.40 1.40 1.40 0.60 0.60 0.60 0.00 0.00
Ghana 0.34 0.37 0.37 1.48 1.65 1.62 0.50 0.61 0.60 -0.01 -1.80
Chad 0.75 0.76 0.76 1.06 1.10 1.09 0.80 0.83 0.83 0.00 0.12
Malawi 0.40 0.40 0.40 0.88 0.88 0.88 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.00 0.00
Congo (Kinshasa) 0.52 0.53 0.53 0.92 0.91 0.91 0.48 0.48 0.48 0.00 0.00
Niger 0.92 0.97 0.92 0.56 0.69 0.65 0.52 0.67 0.60 -0.07 -10.58
Mali 0.44 0.43 0.43 0.78 1.04 1.00 0.35 0.44 0.43 -0.02 -4.06
Uganda 0.33 0.35 0.35 0.59 0.57 0.57 0.19 0.20 0.20 0.00 0.00
Burkina Faso 0.58 0.63 0.64 0.83 0.89 0.90 0.48 0.56 0.58 0.02 2.86
Guinea 0.79 0.90 0.90 1.15 1.14 1.11 0.91 1.03 1.00 -0.03 -2.44
Egypt 0.06 0.06 0.06 3.20 3.20 3.20 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.00 0.00
Central African Republic 0.13 0.13 0.13 1.15 1.15 1.15 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.00 0.00
South Africa 0.04 0.03 0.04 1.51 2.17 2.00 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.01 7.69
Mozambique 0.38 0.38 0.38 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.00 0.00
Cote d'Ivoire 0.17 0.17 0.17 1.42 1.47 1.45 0.23 0.24 0.24 0.00 -1.23
Benin 0.17 0.17 0.18 1.05 0.96 0.97 0.18 0.16 0.18 0.01 6.71
South Asia
India 5.71 5.20 5.50 1.52 1.21 1.20 8.70 6.30 6.60 0.30 4.76
Pakistan 0.15 0.13 0.13 0.94 0.88 0.88 0.15 0.12 0.12 0.00 0.00
Southeast Asia
Indonesia 0.55 0.54 0.52 1.76 1.72 1.69 0.96 0.93 0.88 -0.05 -5.38
Burma 1.06 1.07 1.07 1.51 1.55 1.59 1.60 1.65 1.70 0.05 3.03
Vietnam 0.16 0.16 0.15 2.58 2.58 2.60 0.41 0.40 0.39 -0.01 -2.50
Thailand 0.02 0.02 0.02 1.67 1.67 1.67 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.00 0.00
South America
Argentina 0.41 0.38 0.38 3.29 3.03 3.47 1.34 1.15 1.32 0.17 14.78
Brazil 0.22 0.22 0.24 4.09 4.05 3.79 0.90 0.89 0.89 0.00 0.00
Mexico 0.06 0.05 0.05 1.63 1.87 1.74 0.10 0.10 0.09 -0.01 -8.91
Others 1.77 1.80 1.80 1.17 1.17 1.17 2.07 2.12 2.12 0.00 -0.09

World and Selected Countries and Regions

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 48 May 2023
Global Market Analysis
 Table 14 Sunflowerseed Area, Yield, and Production

Area Yield Production Change in Production

(Million hectares) (Metric tons per hectare) (Million metric tons)
Country / Region
Prel. 2023/24 Proj. Prel. 2023/24 Proj. Prel. 2023/24 Proj. From last month From last year
2021/22 2022/23 May 2021/22 2022/23 May 2021/22 2022/23 May MMT Percent MMT Percent
World 28.72 27.80 28.32 1.99 1.86 1.92 57.20 51.64 54.32 2.68 5.19
United States 0.50 0.65 0.53 1.71 1.96 1.98 0.86 1.28 1.04 -0.24 -18.57
Total Foreign 28.21 27.15 27.80 2.00 1.86 1.92 56.34 50.37 53.28 2.92 5.79
none
Former Soviet Union - 12
Russia 9.61 9.11 9.50 1.62 1.78 1.74 15.57 16.25 16.50 0.25 1.51
Ukraine 7.10 5.20 5.70 2.46 2.15 2.07 17.50 11.20 11.80 0.60 5.36
Kazakhstan 0.94 1.09 1.15 1.10 1.20 1.22 1.03 1.30 1.40 0.10 7.36
European Union 4.37 5.18 5.20 2.35 1.79 2.21 10.29 9.29 11.50 2.21 23.83
South America
Argentina 1.96 2.20 1.95 2.07 1.91 2.00 4.05 4.20 3.90 -0.30 -7.14
Uruguay 0.07 0.07 0.07 1.62 1.64 1.62 0.11 0.12 0.11 -0.01 -8.70
Bolivia 0.14 0.14 0.13 1.39 1.40 1.35 0.20 0.20 0.18 -0.02 -11.62
Brazil 0.04 0.04 0.04 1.03 1.56 1.55 0.04 0.06 0.07 0.00 1.56
Paraguay 0.03 0.03 0.03 1.55 1.56 1.50 0.05 0.05 0.05 -0.01 -10.00
China 0.79 0.95 0.96 3.06 2.79 2.81 2.40 2.65 2.70 0.05 1.89
South Asia
India 0.27 0.28 0.27 0.52 0.78 0.78 0.14 0.22 0.21 -0.01 -2.33
Pakistan 0.10 0.11 0.10 1.38 1.35 1.35 0.14 0.15 0.14 -0.01 -8.78
Middle East
Turkey 0.76 0.79 0.70 2.30 2.41 2.50 1.75 1.90 1.75 -0.15 -7.89
Iran 0.04 0.04 0.04 1.00 1.02 1.05 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.00 -2.27
Israel 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.00 5.00 4.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 -20.00
Africa
Egypt 0.01 0.02 0.02 2.38 2.53 2.50 0.02 0.04 0.05 0.01 31.58
Morocco 0.02 0.02 0.02 1.25 1.11 1.27 0.03 0.02 0.03 0.01 40.00
South Africa 0.67 0.56 0.60 1.26 1.43 1.46 0.85 0.80 0.88 0.08 9.38
Burma 0.60 0.60 0.60 0.65 0.65 0.65 0.39 0.39 0.39 0.00 0.00
Canada 0.04 0.04 0.04 2.03 2.21 2.24 0.08 0.08 0.09 0.00 1.19
Australia 0.02 0.03 0.02 1.58 1.48 1.24 0.03 0.04 0.03 -0.01 -29.73
Others 0.63 0.66 0.66 2.59 2.07 2.28 1.64 1.36 1.50 0.13 9.68

World and Selected Countries and Regions

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 49 May 2023

Global Market Analysis
 Table 15 Rapeseed Area, Yield, and Production

Area Yield Production Change in Production

(Million hectares) (Metric tons per hectare) (Million metric tons)
Country / Region
Prel. 2023/24 Proj. Prel. 2023/24 Proj. Prel. 2023/24 Proj. From last month From last year
2021/22 2022/23 May 2021/22 2022/23 May 2021/22 2022/23 May MMT Percent MMT Percent
World 38.29 41.64 41.81 1.96 2.10 2.08 74.89 87.30 87.06 -0.23 -0.27
United States 0.85 0.88 0.89 1.46 1.98 2.06 1.24 1.74 1.83 0.09 5.22
Total Foreign 37.44 40.76 40.92 1.97 2.10 2.08 73.65 85.55 85.23 -0.33 -0.38
none
European Union 5.39 5.94 6.07 3.23 3.29 3.38 17.39 19.54 20.50 0.96 4.93
United Kingdom 0.31 0.36 0.41 3.20 3.74 3.50 0.98 1.36 1.44 0.07 5.44
Switzerland 0.02 0.02 0.02 3.14 3.14 3.14 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.00 0.00
Canada 8.95 8.60 8.80 1.54 2.21 2.31 13.75 19.00 20.30 1.30 6.84
China 6.99 7.10 7.35 2.10 2.07 2.10 14.71 14.70 15.40 0.70 4.76
South Asia
India 7.99 9.00 9.20 1.39 1.28 1.27 11.10 11.50 11.70 0.20 1.74
Pakistan 0.33 0.39 0.39 1.49 1.00 1.38 0.49 0.39 0.54 0.15 38.46
Bangladesh 0.61 0.81 0.80 1.35 1.30 1.29 0.82 1.05 1.03 -0.02 -1.90
Former Soviet Union - 12
Russia 1.62 2.27 2.10 1.71 1.76 1.76 2.78 4.00 3.70 -0.30 -7.50
Ukraine 1.04 1.20 1.15 2.91 2.92 2.74 3.02 3.50 3.15 -0.35 -10.00
Belarus 0.32 0.33 0.34 1.59 1.69 1.67 0.50 0.55 0.56 0.01 1.82
Kazakhstan 0.12 0.13 0.13 1.24 1.48 1.38 0.15 0.19 0.18 -0.01 -4.76
Australia 3.25 3.90 3.50 2.10 2.13 1.51 6.82 8.30 5.30 -3.00 -36.14
South America
Chile 0.04 0.03 0.04 3.86 3.79 3.82 0.14 0.13 0.15 0.02 16.00
Paraguay 0.04 0.05 0.04 1.45 1.51 1.50 0.06 0.07 0.06 -0.01 -7.35
Ethiopia 0.03 0.03 0.03 1.80 1.80 1.80 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.00 0.00
Others 0.41 0.61 0.56 2.03 1.93 1.98 0.83 1.17 1.11 -0.06 -5.04

World and Selected Countries and Regions

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 50 May 2023

Global Market Analysis
 Table 16 Copra, Palm Kernel, and Palm Oil Production

Production Change in Production

(Million metric tons)
Country / Region
Prel. 2023/24 Proj. From last month From last year
2021/22 2022/23 May MMT Percent MMT Percent

Oilseed, Copra
Philippines 2.60 2.60 2.70 0.10 3.85
Indonesia 1.68 1.68 1.69 0.01 0.60
India 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.00 0.00
Vietnam 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.00 0.00
Papua New Guinea 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.00 0.00
Thailand 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.00 0.00
Sri Lanka 0.11 0.07 0.07 0.00 0.00
Mexico 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.00 0.00
Solomon Islands 0.03 0.03 -0.03 0.00
Cote d'Ivoire 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.00 0.00
World 6.07 6.03 6.05 0.02 0.33

Oilseed, Palm Kernel

Indonesia 11.20 11.80 12.00 0.20 1.69
Malaysia 4.45 4.75 4.90 0.15 3.16
Nigeria 0.90 0.90 0.90 0.00 0.00
Thailand 0.83 0.86 0.86 0.00 0.00
Colombia 0.31 0.32 0.34 0.02 6.25
Guatemala 0.18 0.18 0.18 0.00 0.00
Papua New Guinea 0.17 0.17 0.18 0.01 5.88
Honduras 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.00 0.00
Brazil 0.15 0.15 0.16 0.01 6.67
Cameroon 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.00 0.00
World 19.13 20.12 20.50 0.38 1.89

Oil, Palm
Indonesia 42.00 46.00 47.00 1.00 2.17
Malaysia 18.15 19.00 19.30 0.30 1.58
Thailand 3.38 3.42 3.45 0.03 0.88
Colombia 1.75 1.77 1.80 0.03 1.69
Nigeria 1.40 1.40 1.40 0.00 0.00
Guatemala 0.88 0.91 0.92 0.01 1.10
Papua New Guinea 0.72 0.78 0.80 0.02 2.56
Cote d'Ivoire 0.58 0.60 0.60 0.00 0.00
Honduras 0.60 0.60 0.60 0.00 0.00
Brazil 0.55 0.57 0.59 0.01 1.75
World 72.95 78.14 79.56 1.42 1.82

World and Selected Countries and Regions

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 51 May 2023

Global Market Analysis
 Table 17 Cotton Area, Yield, and Production

Area Yield Production Change in Production

(Million hectares) (Kilograms per hectare) (Million 480 lb. bales)
Country / Region
Prel. 2023/24 Proj. Prel. 2023/24 Proj. Prel. 2023/24 Proj. From last month From last year
2021/22 2022/23 May 2021/22 2022/23 May 2021/22 2022/23 May MBales Percent MBales Percent
World 32.49 31.86 31.54 776 795 799 115.78 116.36 115.69 -0.66 -0.57
United States 4.16 2.96 3.52 918 1,065 958 17.52 14.47 15.50 1.03 7.13
Total Foreign 28.33 28.90 28.02 755 768 779 98.26 101.89 100.19 -1.70 -1.66
none
South Asia
India 12.37 13.00 12.40 429 410 448 24.40 24.50 25.50 1.00 4.08
Pakistan 2.00 1.80 1.80 653 472 641 6.00 3.90 5.30 1.40 35.90
China 3.10 3.10 2.95 1,882 2,156 2,030 26.80 30.70 27.50 -3.20 -10.42
South America
Brazil 1.60 1.63 1.63 1,595 1,736 1,770 11.72 13.00 13.25 0.25 1.92
Argentina 0.48 0.40 0.41 680 626 690 1.50 1.15 1.30 0.15 13.04
Paraguay 0.02 0.04 0.03 527 877 806 0.05 0.14 0.10 -0.04 -29.08
Africa
Burkina Faso 0.60 0.62 0.61 351 316 330 0.96 0.90 0.93 0.03 2.78
Mali 0.72 0.69 0.70 432 316 389 1.43 1.00 1.25 0.25 25.00
Cote d'Ivoire 0.47 0.41 0.39 486 266 424 1.05 0.50 0.76 0.26 52.00
Benin 0.64 0.58 0.64 483 492 476 1.42 1.30 1.40 0.10 7.69
Egypt 0.09 0.14 0.15 717 661 660 0.28 0.43 0.46 0.03 7.06
Cameroon 0.23 0.23 0.23 606 615 568 0.64 0.65 0.60 -0.05 -7.69
Tanzania 0.24 0.35 0.35 231 218 218 0.26 0.35 0.35 0.00 0.00
Nigeria 0.27 0.27 0.27 282 282 282 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.00 0.00
Zimbabwe 0.25 0.24 0.24 191 195 195 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.00 0.00
Ethiopia 0.08 0.08 0.08 637 637 637 0.24 0.24 0.24 0.00 0.00
Former Soviet Union - 12
Uzbekistan 1.06 1.07 1.03 596 692 655 2.90 3.40 3.10 -0.30 -8.82
Turkmenistan 0.55 0.55 0.55 356 356 356 0.90 0.90 0.90 0.00 0.00
Tajikistan 0.17 0.17 0.17 608 615 640 0.48 0.48 0.50 0.02 4.17
Kazakhstan 0.11 0.13 0.12 467 584 526 0.24 0.34 0.29 -0.05 -13.43
Middle East
Turkey 0.45 0.56 0.43 1,839 1,922 1,793 3.80 4.90 3.50 -1.40 -28.57
Syria 0.03 0.03 0.03 1,132 1,132 1,132 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.00 0.00
Iran 0.10 0.10 0.10 871 871 871 0.40 0.40 0.40 0.00 0.00
Australia 0.64 0.68 0.65 2,006 1,751 1,943 5.85 5.50 5.80 0.30 5.45
Mexico 0.15 0.20 0.17 1,725 1,729 1,633 1.22 1.58 1.28 -0.31 -19.30
Burma 0.16 0.15 0.16 660 653 660 0.48 0.45 0.47 0.02 4.44
Others 1.77 1.70 1.74 561 576 541 4.56 4.49 4.33 -0.16 -3.56

World and Selected Countries and Regions

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 52 May 2023

Global Market Analysis
 TABLE 18
The table below presents a record of the May projection and the final Estimate. Using world wheat production as an
example, the "root mean square error" means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current forecast will not be above or
below the final estimate by more than 3.0 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90% confidence level) that the difference will
not exceed 5.1 percent. The average difference between the May projection and the final estimate is 16.1 million tons,
ranging from 1.7 million to 35.0 million tons. The May projection has been below the estimate 25 times and above 17
times.
RELIABILITY OF PRODUCTION PROJECTIONS 1/
Difference between forecast and final estimate
90 percent
COMMODITY AND Root mean
confidence Years
REGION square error
interval Below Above
Average Smallest Largest final final

Percent ---Million metric tons---

WHEAT
World 3.0 5.1 16.1 1.7 35.0 25 17

U.S. 6.8 11.4 3.0 0.0 9.8 21 21

Foreign 3.2 5.4 14.9 1.6 32.9 24 18

COARSE GRAINS 2/
World 3.6 6.1 26.6 1.1 103.6 20 22

U.S. 13.6 22.9 21.1 0.9 103.8 22 20

Foreign 2.7 4.5 14.4 0.2 42.8 20 22

RICE (Milled)
World 2.3 3.9 6.8 0.0 21.8 25 17

8.1 13.6 0.4 0.0 1.1 22 20

U.S.
Foreign 2.4 4.0 6.8 0.4 22.0 25 17

SOYBEANS
World NA NA 13.4 0.4 34.8 7 7

U.S. 8.9 15.0 4.8 0.0 16.1 22 20

Foreign NA NA 9.0 0.2 35.6 8 6

COTTON ---Million 480-lb. bales---

World 6.1 10.2 4.3 0.1 16.7 24 18

U.S. 12.0 20.3 1.6 0.1 5.5 20 22

Foreign 6.1 10.2 3.3 0.1 12.2 22 20

UNITED STATES -------Million bushels-------

CORN 14.4 24.3 756 8 4,010 18 24

SORGHUM 25.0 42.1 85 0 228 21 20

BARLEY 14.8 25.0 26 1 206 16 26

OATS 25.1 42.2 29 1 231 9 33

1/ Marketing years 1981/82 through 2022/23 for grains, soybeans, and cotton. Final for grains, soybeans, and
cotton is defined as the first November estimate following the marketing year for 1981/82 through 2021/22,
and for 2022/23 the last month’s estimate.
2/ Includes corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet, and mixed grain
May 2023 Global Market Analysis, FAS, USDA

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 53 May 2023

Global Market Analysis