Mean of a log normal random variable:
Theorem 1: Suppose Y = ln X is a normal distribution with mean m and variance v, then X has mean exp( m + v /2 ) Proof: The density function of Y= ln X
Therefore the density function of X is given by
Using the change of variable x = exp(y), dx = exp(y) dy, We have
= Note that the integral inside is just the density function of a normal random variable with mean (m-v) and variance v. By definition, the integral evaluates to be 1.
Proof of Black Scholes Formula
Theorem 2: Assume the stock price following the following PDE
Then the option price
for a call option with payoff
is given by
Proof: By Itos lemma,
If form a portfolio P
Applying Itos lemma
Since the portfolio has no risk, by no arbitrage, it must earn the risk free rate,
Therefore we have
Rearranging the terms we have the Black Scholes PDE
With the boundary condition
To solve this PDE, we need the Feynman-Kac theorem: Assume that f is a solution to the boundary value problem:
Then f has the representation:
Where S satisfies the following stochastic differential equation
Proof: Suppose that is the solution to the PDE. Let
Applying the Itos lemma
Since the last term involves only second order terms only,
Collecting terms we have got
As the first term is simply the PDE, it is zero. Therefore
Integrating from 0 to T
Taking expectation on both side,
Since the integral is a limiting sum of independent Brownian motions increments, i.e. =0 it is zero. Recall that W has independent and stationary increment with a zero mean, i.e. is normally distributed with zero mean. 3
Therefore In other words
End of Proof.
By the Feynman Kac Theorem, the solution to the Black Scholes PDE is given by
Where S follows
Consider Z = ln S, by Itos lemma,
Integrate both side from 0 to T, We have
Recall that with mean
has a normal distribution with mean 0, and variance T, and variance , let g(X) be the density function of X.
has a normal distribution
To simplify our notation, let
Theorem 3: if ln(X) is a normal distributed random variable and the standard deviation is , then
Where
Proof: From Theorem 1, the mean of ln X is ,
Define . Q is a standard normal random variable with mean 0 and standard deviation 1. Hence the density function of Q is given by
Since
pply change of variable
Or
Lets consider the first integrand
Note that the last expression is nothing more than the density function of a normal random variable with mean and variance 1, i.e.
By definition, and apply change of variable again,
By definition, the second integrand is
End of Proof. Since 1, has a normal distribution with mean and variance , from theorem
Applying Theorem 3,
Final Exam question 1: Question 1 (total: 25%) Prove the Black Scholes formula a) (2%) If the price of a stock follows the SDE
State the pricing formula of the option price
for a call option with payoff
b) (5%) derive the Black Scholes PDE. c) (5%) State and prove the Feynman Kac theorem. d) (5%) If Y=ln X is a normal distribution with mean m and variance v, show that the mean of X is exp(m +v/2) e) (8%) By applying the Feynman Kac theorem to the Black Scholes PDE, derive the equation you state in part a)