KIOGA 2018 Dubois
KIOGA 2018 Dubois
                                    Martin K. Dubois
                           Improved Hydrocarbon Recovery, LLC
                                  mdubois@ihr-llc.com
                                     (email for copy)
                                       In collaboration with
                                     Kansas Geological Survey
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KIOGA - CCUS Opportunities Kansas, 8-13-2018
                        Why we are here today
     45Q tax credits are a game changer, making a variety of
     CCUS projects (CO2 EOR) technically and economically feasible.
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KIOGA - CCUS Opportunities Kansas, 8-13-2018
                                                                                       Kansas Oil Production
                                                 140                                                                                                                                 8
                                                 120
                                                                                                                                                      to date                        7
                                                                                                                  Middle East
                                                                             Single Pt                              Unrest                                                           6
                                                 100
                                                                            Seismic on
                                                                               CKU                                                                                                   5
                                                 80                                                                             75
                                                              El Dorado                                                                 Prices &                 CO2
                                                                                                                                         Fracs                                       4
                                                                 WWI                                                                                           EOR Oil?
                                                 60
                                                                                                                                                   50                                3
                                                 40
                                                                                                                                                                                     2
                                                                                                                  3D Seismic
                                                 20                                                                                                                                  1
                                                  0                                                                                                                                  0
                                                       1890
1900
1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
                                                                                                                                                                              2050
                                                                                                                  Year
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   3
KIOGA - CCUS Opportunities Kansas, 8-13-2018
           So, how much is 10 million barrels
                      per year?
                                               Top 8 Producers in Kansas
         28% of Kansas current
                                                 Rank    Million    % of
          production                             in KS   BO/yr     Kansas
                                                  1       3.5       9.7
         27,000 BOPD
                                                  2       1.6       4.4
                                                  3       1.2       3.5
         Equals top 8 Kansas
                                                  4       1.1        3
          producers combined
                                                  5       0.9       2.5
         $600,000,000 gross sales                6       0.7       1.8
          @ $60/barrel                            7       0.5       1.5
                                                  8       0.5       1.4
         $12 Billion over 20 years              Total    9.9       27.8
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KIOGA - CCUS Opportunities Kansas, 8-13-2018
   And, what tax credits could be captured?
              Hypothetical Scenarios
        2. Kansas Readiness
                    • Industry-Kansas Geological Survey collaborations
                    • Integrated CCS for Kansas (current)
                    • Kansas CO2 EOR oil resources
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KIOGA - CCUS Opportunities Kansas, 8-13-2018
     CO2 conversions, scales and “green” oil
   Units/volumes
       • 1 tonne (metric ton)                  1.1 tons
       • 1 tonne CO2                           19 mcf
       • 1 million tonnes                      19 bcf
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KIOGA - CCUS Opportunities Kansas, 8-13-2018
                      CO2 – the magical fluid
   CO2 Phase Diagram
                                                 Conversions tool:
                                                 http://www.kgs.ku.edu/Magellan/Midcarb/co2_prop.html
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KIOGA - CCUS Opportunities Kansas, 8-13-2018
                                                  CO2 Processing Styles
                                                  Gravity-stable flood
                                                  • Application: bottom-water
                                                    drive reservoirs
                                                  • KS targets: Arbuckle,
                                                    Simpson, Viola
                                                  • Fewer analogues                10
         Kuuskraa,
KIOGA - CCUS       2008
             Opportunities Kansas, 8-13-2018
                  US CO2 Pipeline Infrastructure
                                               66 Mt/yr
                                               Delivered
  Source:
  A Review of the CO2 Pipeline
  Infrastructure in the U.S. (2015)
  DOE/NETL-2014/1681
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KIOGA - CCUS Opportunities Kansas, 8-13-2018
       Permian Basin and                       (Added by Dubois)
                                                                  Kansas
                                                                 Oklahoma
                                                   Source:
 PERMIAN                                           A Review of the CO2 Pipeline
 2600 miles total pipelines                        Infrastructure in the U.S. (2015)
 1554 mi 16-30” trunk lines                        DOE/NETL-2014/1681
 4 geologic sources
 ~40 Mt/yr CO2 sold
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KIOGA - CCUS Opportunities Kansas, 8-13-2018
      Midwest                           1546 miles total
                                        755 mi. 16-20” trunk lines
     Ethanol CO2                        CO2 from 34 ethanol plants
                                        ~10 Mt/yr CO2
        to the
       Permian
      Plausible?
                                                                                    Ethanol Plants
                                                                                    Other Sources
                                                                                    Existing CO2 Lines
                                                                                    Potential CO2 Lines
         Move on to Section 2:
         Kansas Readiness
              • Industry-Kansas Geological Survey
                collaborations
              • Integrated CCS for Kansas (current)
              • Kansas CO2 EOR oil resources
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KIOGA - CCUS Opportunities Kansas, 8-13-2018
   CO2 EOR and CCUS Headlines                                                               KGS/industry
                                                                     DOE announced    partners land $1.5M
                Kansas Ethanol Plants (2008)                         Phase II in DOE   for Phase I in DOE
                                                                     CarbonSAFE award       CarbonSAFE
                     Blue – active, Tan - planned
                           Petrosandtander :
                          Garden City Ethanol
    KGS and five          CO2 to Stewart field
       industry
   partners expand
    CCS and EOR                   2011
      study with
     another $5M
      DOE grant.                                    Berexco and KGS to
                                                       inject CO2 into
       2010                                        Wellington field in DOE
                                                            study
                                                         2011, 2015
2009 2009
15
KIOGA - CCUS Opportunities Kansas, 8-13-2018
       KGS’ Current DOE-Funded Project(s)
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KIOGA - CCUS Opportunities Kansas, 8-13-2018
            Project Partners and Participants
Lakin
                                                     Meramec Structure
                                                         CI = 50 ft
                                                     Grid = TWP = 6 mi
                                                             25 mi               Pleasant
                                                                                 Prairie
                                                            32 km
KIOGA - CCUS Opportunities Kansas, 8-13-2018                                                              18
       CO2 Sources & Transportation Assessment
   Preliminary Conclusions
     • Davis Ranch and John Creek lack 50 Mt capacity.
       SW Kansas exceed 50Mt capacity
     • Cost for Capture/Compression at JEC is $46 -
       $78/tonne
     • Transportation (pipeline) to SW Kansas cost is
       ~$14/tonne
     • Too high even with $50/tonne 45Q credits
                                                                                        Jeffrey Energy
                                                       Jeffrey
                                                       Energy                           Center, St. Marys, KS
                                                            Jeffrey
                                                       Center                           • 3 x 800 MWe plants
      Holcomb – still under                                                  Nearman
                                                                                          -12.5 million
      study: 1 Mt/yr max, but                                                   Creek     tonnes/yr CO2
      close to storage sites              CHS                         Davis Ranch
                                                                             Davis
                                                                      and John
                                                                                        • Partial capture (~350
                                         Refinery
                                               CHS                         Ranch &
       Holcomb                                                        Creek Oil
                                                                        John Creek
                                                                                          Mwe) yield 50 Mt
                                                                      Fields
        Station
          Holcomb
                                                                                          over 20 years (2.5
                                          CHS Refinery                                    Mt/yr)
                                          • Maximum recovery
                    Pleasant                0.75 Mt/yr
                          North
                    Prairie
                       Hugoton
                    Oil Field             • More costly than
                       Sites                JEC
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KIOGA - CCUS Opportunities Kansas, 8-13-2018
  Phase II: Midcontinent Stacked Carbon Storage Hub
 Phase II proposal
 •   Capture CO2 from
     Ethanol plants
 •   Transport to SW
     Nebraska and SW
     Kansas
 •   Inject for storage
     (saline aquifer)
 •   Sell for EOR to offset
     costs
 •   Monetize 45Q credits
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KIOGA - CCUS Opportunities Kansas, 8-13-2018
   Oil-rich state, but no appreciable CO2 available
                                                        Now at 36 mmbo/yr
                                                        +10 mmbo/yr possible
                                                        from CO2 EOR?
                                               Most prolific:
                                               Arbuckle
                                               L-KC
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KIOGA - CCUS Opportunities Kansas, 8-13-2018
                                  The Big Picture
   From the Midwest Governor’s Association and ARI (2009)
   • Kansas holds > 750 million barrels of technical CO2-
     EOR potential.
   • Kansas has the largest oil resources in the MGA region.
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KIOGA - CCUS Opportunities Kansas, 8-13-2018
                     What’s required for 250 mmbo?
              4.3 M tonne / yr CO2 (220 mmcfd) for 25 yrs
   Ethanol CO2 gathering scenario
    4.3 Mt/yr from 15 plants
    To Kansas for EOR/storage
                                                    Ethanol Plant
                                                    Oil Field
                                                                                   Atokan IVF
                                                                                   discovered
                                                                            10,000
                                                                            Mississippian
                                                                                                                              1st Inj. 2012
                                                                             1,000                                            Peak 2015
                                                                            1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
                                                                                                                                              2020
    Bonanza Bioenergy, Garden City
                                                                                                                                              25
KIOGA - CCUS Opportunities Kansas, 8-13-2018
                                 Hall-Gurney Field Investigations
                       Murfin’s Hall Gurney (Russell)
                       Pilot (2005)
                       • Trucked CO2 from USEP
                          Russell ethanol plant
                       • Injected 140 mmcf (7400 tonnes
                          CO2)
                       • Produced an estimated 27.9
                          mbo incremental oil
                       • SUCESSFUL demonstration
2020
                                                                                         2025
                                                           2010
2015
                                                   10
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KIOGA - CCUS Opportunities Kansas, 8-13-2018
     Four fields in KGS/DOE study “CO2 Ready”
     (2012-2015 ) Could take 2 Mt/yr + 13.2 mmbo from EOR
                             Pleasant                                 P&S
                             Prairie                                combined
                             South                                  25 mmbo
                       Meramec                                       Eubank
                       Structure        incised valley
Eubank
                                                                                                          5 mi
                          Cutter
                          (Morrow)
                                                                  Seismic depth-
                                     Shuck                        converted Meramec
                                                                  surfaces (by Hedke)
                           6 mi
                                                                                                                                           28
KIOGA - CCUS Opportunities Kansas, 8-13-2018
 Pleasant Prairie So.
     Chester IVF
         Primary + Secondary
              4.7 mmbo
                                       Incised
                                        Valley
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KIOGA - CCUS Opportunities Kansas, 8-13-2018
                                                  Eubank North Unit
                                                       Chester IVF
                                                                         CI: 20ft
                                                                         VE: 7.5X
                                                 1370 ft wide
                                                 140 ft deep
                                               200 ft
                                               deep
      8 mi
                                                   Primary + Secondary
                                                        7.4 mmbo
                          CI: 20ft
                                                                                    30
KIOGA - CCUS Opportunities Kansas, 8-13-2018
           Here’s the upside potential: Arbuckle
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KIOGA - CCUS Opportunities Kansas, 8-13-2018
                          Geneseo-Edwards study
  Kansas Ethanol, LLC (Lyons, KS)
  and CAP CO2, LLC, with support
  from Daystar and Scheck, 2010
  • 55 MGY plant 15 miles to
     Geneseo-Edwards oilfield
  • Did not go forward
      1. Not funded in DOE Phase II
      2. Drop in oil prices
      3. Geologic risk
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KIOGA - CCUS Opportunities Kansas, 8-13-2018
                 “CO2 Ready” EOR candidates
                                     Inject. CO2 Primary & CO2
                                      Rate Stored Secondary EOR
                                    (Mt/yr) (Mt)   (mmbo) (mmbo Basis for Estimate
                 Shuck               0.4       1.5      7.9       3.6    DE-FE000256
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KIOGA - CCUS Opportunities Kansas, 8-13-2018
               Questions?
            Move on to Section 3:
            45Q tax incentives expansion and extension
                 • 45Q tax credits discussion
                 • Economics for capture,
                    transportation, injection
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KIOGA - CCUS Opportunities Kansas, 8-13-2018
                           45 Q Tax Credits Applied
                                                                     Credit Values
                             45Q specifics*
                                                                       ($/tonne)
     Enacted 2/9/2018 as part of a Federal budget bill
                                                                  Credits (no inflation)
        • Construction before February 9, 2025                              EOR      Saline
        • Credits claimed 12 yrs from day capture begins           2017 $12.83 $22.66
        • Claimed by capture facility, transferrable to
                                                                   2018 $15.29 $25.70
          storage site (field), but not directly to transporter    2019 $17.76 $28.74
                                                                   2020 $20.22 $31.77
        • 2017 tax: $12.83/tonne for EOR and
          $22.66/tonne for saline storage.                         2021 $22.68 $34.81
                                                                   2022 $25.15 $37.85
        • Escalates linearly through 2026 to $35 for EOR
          and $50 for saline storage, flat thereafter.
                                                                   2023 $27.61 $40.89
                                                                   2024 $30.07 $43.92
        • Adjusted for inflation.
                                                                   2025 $32.54 $46.96
        • Injected into a qualified EOR project in a secure       2026 - $35.00 $50.00
          geologic storage.                                        2035
           * Sources: NEORI (Kurt Walzer), CLATF, State CO2 EOR     Inflation adjustment after
              Workgroup (Brad Crabtree), and S. 1535 document         2026 not applied here
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KIOGA - CCUS Opportunities Kansas, 8-13-2018
                        Strings attached and/or
                              complexities
              Rumblings regarding rules to qualify for credits
                • Definition for “Secure geologic storage”
                • Monitoring Verification and Accounting
                  requirements – for proof of injection and
                  storage
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KIOGA - CCUS Opportunities Kansas, 8-13-2018
     Capture and Storage at Variable Scales
          Project types and scales are nearly limitless in MidCon
                                               Scenarios presented involve the highlighted boxes
                                                                                              Ethanol     CO2
  Range from                                                                                  Volume    Volume
                                               Source Type       Description                  (Mg/yr)   (Mt/yr)
  • Simple: point-to-point                      Ethanol plants   Single Small                  55-110   0.15-0.3
    (150,000 tonnes/yr)                                          Single Large                    300       0.8
                                                                 Multiple - 15 plants           1575       4.3
  • Somewhat complex:                                            Multiple - 34 plants           3643       9.9
    multiple sources to single                   Coal Power      Single                                   1-4
                                               Storage (Market)
    market for EOR                                  EOR          Single field - small (KS)              0.15-0.3
                                                                 Mutliple small fields (KS)               2-4
  • Very complex: multiple
                                                                 Large market (W. TX)                     4-10
    sources to multiple fields                  Saline aquifer   Small local (KS)                       0.15-0.3
    for EOR                                                      Single structure (KS)                   1.5-3
                                                                 Multi-structure storage                   6
                                                                 complex (KS)
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KIOGA - CCUS Opportunities Kansas, 8-13-2018
  Sources for Economic Modeling and Resources
         References:
         Dubois, M.K., D. McFarlane, and T, Bidgoli, 2017, CO2 Pipeline Cost Analysis Utilizing and Modified FE/NETL
         Cost Model Tool, poster presented at the Carbon Storage and Oil and Natural Gas Technologies Review
         Meeting, Pittsburgh PA, August 3, 2017, Pittsburgh PA, August 3, 2017.
         Grant, T., D. Morgan, and K. Gerdes, 2013, Carbon Dioxide Transport and Storage Costs in NETL Studies:
         Quality Guidelines for Energy Systems Studies: DOE/NETL-2013/1614, 22 p.
         Grant, T. and D. Morgan, 2014, FE/NETL CO2 Transport Cost Model. National Energy Technology Laboratory.
         DOE/NETL-2014/1667. https://www.netl.doe.gov/research/energy-analysis/analytical-tools-and-data/co2-
         transport.
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KIOGA - CCUS Opportunities Kansas, 8-13-2018
              Three cases discussed today
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KIOGA - CCUS Opportunities Kansas, 8-13-2018
             Case 1: Small-scale Point-to-Point for EOR,
                  Oil Operator Owns CCT System
                                                                  Russell
   Current Kansas example: Conestoga’s
   (Garden City KS) to Stewart Oil Field since
   2012: 55 mgy plant, 15 miles to field
   Future EOR example? Russell Ethanol
   to Hall-Gurney field via 10-mile line
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KIOGA - CCUS Opportunities Kansas, 8-13-2018
                            Case 1: Risk and Benefit
   Benefit
   1. Low-cost CO2…………because of
      $59 Million 45Q tax credits
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KIOGA - CCUS Opportunities Kansas, 8-13-2018
         Case 2: Fifteen plants to Kansas oil fields
            4.3 Mt/yr CO2 (80.9 BCF/yr)
            737 miles of pipeline
            4 to12 inch diameter
            15 ethanol plants
               (1575 MGY capacity)
           increased production
                                                   Fairport
                                                                   Hall-Gurney
                                                           Trapp
                               Sunflower
                                                                                   KEY:
                               Holcomb                                   CHS         Ethanol Plants
                                                                        Refinery     Other Sources
                                        Pleasant Prairie
                        Eubank North                                                 Existing CO2 Lines
                              Cutter
                                                                                     Potential CO2 Lines
                           Shuck Unit
                                                                                                           44
KIOGA - CCUS Opportunities Kansas, 8-13-2018
                                  Case 2 Economics
     Estimated Project Costs
                        Plant   Pipeline
  Cost $million        Capture Transport          Total
                                                                    Note: Rule of thumb
                                                                    $100k/inch-mile yields $613
  CapX                   $364         $642       $1,006
                                                                    million CapX for pipeline
  Annual OpX             $37          $16          $53
  Summary:
                                                Costs per Tonne of CO2 (credits applied)
  • Total CapEx            $1,006 M
                                                                 Pipeline      Capture &        Combined
  • 45Q tax credits $1,774 M                                                   Compress
  • Cost of Capital = 10%                      CapEx ($/t)         $1.71           $0.69          $1.90
                                               OpEx ($/t)          $3.80           $8.58          $12.39
  • 2-yr construction and 20
    yrs operations (operations                 Total ($/t)         $5.02           $9.27          $14.29
    begin 2024)                                 Tax credits applied directly to CapEx
                                                  in model to calculate price/tonne     $/mcf     $0.75
  • 12 yrs of 45Q credits -                                                             Without 45Q
    Avg. $34.48/t                                                                        $47 / tonne
                                                 Market CO2 value with WTI =
                                                  $60 $22.90/t ($1.20/mcf)              ($2.46 / mcf)
                                                                                                           45
KIOGA - CCUS Opportunities Kansas, 8-13-2018
                    Case 3: Large-scale, 10 Mt/yr
         9.85 Mt/yr CO2 (187
          BCF/yr, 513 mmcfd)
         1546 miles of pipeline
         4 to 20 inch diameter
         34 ethanol plants (32
          locations)
         (3643 MGY capacity)
                                                               KEY:
                                                                  Ethanol Plants
                                                                  Other Sources
                                                                  Existing CO2 Lines
                                                                  Potential CO2 Lines
                                                                                           46
KIOGA - CCUS Opportunities Kansas, 8-13-2018
                                   Case 3 Economics
     Estimated Project Costs
                                                                    Note: Rule of thumb $100k/inch-
                                                                    mile yields $1821 million CapX
                                                                    for pipeline
  Summary:
                                                  Costs per Tonne of CO2 (credits applied)
  • Total CapEx            $2.7 Billion
                                                                 Pipeline      Capture &       Combined
  • 45Q credits            $4.1 Billion                                        Compress
  • Cost of Capital = 10%                      CapEx ($/t)         $4.28           $1.86         $6.14
                                               OpEx ($/t)          $4.77           $8.58         $13.35
  • 2-yr construction and 20 yrs
    operations (ops in 2024)     Total ($/t)                       $9.05          $10.44         $19.49
                                               Tax credits applied directly to CapEx
  • 12 yrs of 45Q tax credits,                   in model to calculate price/tonne     $/mcf     $1.03
    Avg. $34.48/t                                                                      Without 45Q
                                                 Market CO2 value with WTI =            $47 / tonne
                                                  $60 $22.90/t ($1.20/mcf)             ($2.46 / mcf)
                                                                                                          47
KIOGA - CCUS Opportunities Kansas, 8-13-2018
                                          Summary
                                Challenge                       Remedy
      Kansas Resource           Adequate but disparate and      Collaboration between
      Base                      many operators.                 operators. Consortium?
                                Needs further analysis.         Led by whom? (KGS,
                                                                KIOGA, other)
      45Q tax credits           Generous, but will Kansas       Need clarification and
                                operators be able to partake?   possible involvement in
                                                                final rules.
     Acknowledgements:
     Thanks to all of the operators that have participated in the KGS CO2-related
     projects over the years, in particular:
                       Berexco                 Knighton Oil
                       Murfin                  Blake Production
                       Merit Energy            Vess Oil
                       Casillas                John O. Farmer
                       Cimarex                 And many others
     Thanks also to the literally dozens of KGS staff and consultants to projects, portions of
     which are contained in this presentation, with whom I have had the privilege to work,
     in particular: KGS - W. Lynn Watney, Tandis Bidgoli, Eugene Holubnyak; Consultants &
     Firms - Dane McFarlane (GPI), Krish Krishnamurthy (Linde), Dennis Hedke, Eugene
     Williams, John Youle…. And many others
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KIOGA - CCUS Opportunities Kansas, 8-13-2018