DRM in Ethiopia

DRM IN ETHIOPIA
Module Prepared by: Tarekegne Ayalew

Editors: Misganaw Teshager

Markos Budusa

Layout and Graphics Designer: Jemal Simeneh

Language Editor: Mulugeta Teka (Ph.D)

Disaster Risk Management and Sustainable Development Department

Bahir Dar University

JUNE 2014
BAHIR DAR, ETHIOPIA
 Table of Contents

Chapter One: Basics of Disaster Risk Management ................................................................ 1

1.1. Disaster Risk Management Terminologies ........................................................................................ 1

1.2. Need for Disaster Risk Management ................................................................................................. 7

1.3. Disaster Risk Management Paradigm Shift ...................................................................................... 14

1.3.1. Paradigm Shifts in Understanding Disaster............................................................................... 14

1.3. 2. International Disaster Risk Management ................................................................................ 17

1. 3.3. Regional Disaster Management ............................................................................................... 23

1.3.4. National Disaster Risk Management ............................................................................................. 26

Chapter Two: Disaster Risk Management in Ethiopia ........................................................... 29

2.1. Historical Perspectives of Disaster Risk Management in Ethiopia ................................................... 30

2.2. International Commitments on Disaster Risk Management in Ethiopia ......................................... 34

2.3. Ethiopia’s DRM Strategic Programme and Investment Framework (DRM-SPIF) .............. 36

2.4. Goal and Guiding Frameworks of SPIF ............................................................................................. 37

2.5 Disaster Risk Management Principles ............................................................................................... 38

2.6. Disaster Risks Profiling in Ethiopia ................................................................................................... 41

2.6.1. Drought ..................................................................................................................................... 42

2.6.2 Flood .......................................................................................................................................... 50

2.6.3 War and civil strife ..................................................................................................................... 52

2.6.4 Epidemics ................................................................................................................................... 52

2. 6.5 Seismic activities ....................................................................................................................... 53

2. 6.6 Landslide ................................................................................................................................... 53

3.1. Conceptual understanding of Early Warning System ...................................................................... 56

3.2. Elements of Early Warning Systems................................................................................................. 57

 DRM in Ethiopia
3.3. Components of Early warning systems ............................................................................................ 58

3.4. Importance & Uses of EWS .............................................................................................................. 59

3.5. Historical Background of EWS in Ethiopia........................................................................................ 60

 DRM in Ethiopia
ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS

CRED Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters

DM Disaster Management

DPPC Disaster Prevention and Preparedness Commission (Government of Ethiopia)

DRM Disaster Risk Management

DRR Disaster Risk Reduction

EGS Employment Generation Schemes

FFW Food-For-Work

HFA Hyogo Framework for Action

IDNDR International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction

IGAD Inter Governmental Authority on Development

MDG Millennium Development Goal

MOARD Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development

NDPPF National Disaster Prevention and Preparedness Fund

NEPAD New Partnership for Africa’s Development

NGO Non Government Organizations

NPDPM National Policy on Disaster Prevention and Management

US/OFDA Office of United States Foreign Disaster Assistance

UNDP United Nations Development Program

 DRM in Ethiopia

Foreword
Ethiopia is exposed to a wide range of hazards associated with the country’s diverse geo-climatic
and socio-economic conditions. The reduction of disaster risk and its impacts is urgent priorities
which contribute to the path of economic and social development set forth for Ethiopia by the
Growth and Transformation Plan (GTP). Based on the country’s deep-rooted history of disasters
and the past disaster management experience, the government of Ethiopia has been taking
remarkable policy and institutional measures over the last two decades to transform the DRM
system from relief oriented approach to primary focus on reducing disaster risk developmentally.
One of the major bottlenecks to combat disaster in Ethiopia has been lack of trained human
power. Thus in response to the ongoing need to build disaster resilient communities through
strengthening human and institutional capacity, Bahir Dar University established the Department
of Disaster Risk Management and Sustainable Development (DDRMSD) in 2005, which has
since then been running both a graduate and an undergraduate program in Disaster Risk
Management and Sustainable Development.

In addition to these programs, BDU, in collaboration with DRMFSS and UNDP, has developed
these short term training modules to respond to the need for developing capacities of the DRM
workers who are already in the service as DRM practitioners and experts as well as decision
makers, working for GOs, UN agencies and NGOs. These short-term training modules will be a
major step in the standardization of concepts, approaches and methodologies within the Disaster
Risk Management sector.

I hope that those who use these training modules and apply the concepts and principles will be
inspired and better equipped to alleviate the negative impact that disasters have on the lives and
livelihoods of our citizens.

Matebe Tafere (PhD)

V/ President for Academic Affairs, BDU
December 2014
 DRM in Ethiopia

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

We (Bahir Dar University in general and Disaster Risk

Management and Sustainable Development Department in

particular) would like to express our sincere gratitude to the

United Nations Development Program (UNDP) for its

financial support in the development of these series of

modules. We would also like to acknowledge the effort made

by the Federal Disaster Risk Management and Food Security

Sector (FDRMFSS) in promoting DRM at the country and its

strategic engagement with us.

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INTRODUCTION TO THE MODULE: WHY DISASTER RISK MANAGEMENT?

Natural disasters kill one million people around the world each decade and leave millions
homeless each year. According to CRED Statistics (1997-2001), economic damages from natural
calamities have tripled in the past 30 years— rising from $40 billion in the 1960s to $120 billion
in the 1980s. The document indicated that the world will continue to be hardest hit by the
cascading effects of human-induced climate change, environmental degradation, and
population pressures. This insidious combination of the stated factors is throwing millions more
into the path of potential disaster. Surprisingly, 96 percent of all deaths from natural disasters
occur in developing countries.

The continuing worsening effects of disasters, particularly on the world’s poor nations, caused
the United Nations to designate the 1990s as the “International Decade for Natural Disaster
Reduction.’’ The purpose of this action was to reduce losses caused by such phenomena as
earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, landslides, tropical cyclones, floods, and droughts. Although
some progress was made during the decade, losses resulting from disasters continue to grow as
more people and structures occupy hazardous areas (US/OFDA, 1997).

Disasters whether natural or human-made can strike at any time. The solution after the event
of disasters is emergency response (relief and rescue). However, if governments and at risk
communities are adequately prepared, disasters could be prevented, if not their impacts be
reduced. The impact can be reduced through a good understanding of the nexus between
disaster risk reduction and sustainable development as well as having the knowledge of risk
management tools and techniques, which when used at the time of the event of disaster can
control the total damage to life and property.

Ethiopia has made significant progress in disaster risk management, especially in terms of
ratifying policies, establishing institutions, organizations etc. National disaster risk management
institutions have been established, legislation has been in place, a number of policy statements
have been articulated, and political commitment to disaster risk reduction has gradually been

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increasing. There is also growing recognition of the need to improve and enhance the
effectiveness and efficiency of disaster management and risk reduction.
This module is intended to introduce the subject of disaster risk management to training
participants of government and non-government organizations, emergency and development
professionals, NGOs, and donors. Its main purpose is to enable concerned decision makers and
professionals to effectively integrate disaster risk management into development policies and
strategies and to better plan, identify risks and take measures to prevent, mitigate or effectively
respond to disasters and their impacts in the context of the country.

MODULE CONTENT

In general, this module is intended to help trainees develop an understanding of disaster risk
reduction and management practices, historical aspects and early warning systems in Ethiopia.
The module is divided into four chapters. These are:

Chapter One: Basics of Disaster Risk Management

This chapter introduces participants to the meaning of disaster risk management terminologies,
the need for disaster risk management and paradigm shifts of disaster management and
understanding.

Chapter Two: Disaster Risk Management in Ethiopia

This chapter helps participants to have common understanding of hazards and their originated
disasters and to realize the historical progresses of disaster management and institutional
reorganizations throughout the history of the country. It also makes participants to understand
disaster risk management related policies, strategies and activities and international
commitments to promote disaster risk management as top priorities.

Chapter Three: Ethiopian Early Warning Experiences

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This chapter introduces the concept, components, importance and use, and historical
progression of Ethiopian early warning systems in cases of disaster risks.

TRAINING OUTPUT:

The outcomes of the training through this module are expected to be:

 Awareness of the basic concepts of disaster management, disaster risk reduction and
disaster risk management;

 Familiarity with the historical perspectives of disaster risk management in Ethiopia;

 Familiarity with early warning system experiences in Ethiopia;

 Familiarity with the profile of disaster risks in Ethiopia.

TRAINING METHODS:

Input

Positioning

Exercise

Case Study

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Chapter One: Basics of Disaster Risk Management

General Description: This chapter introduces participants to the meaning of terminologies, the
need for disaster risk management and paradigm shifts of disaster management and
understanding. Certain concepts/terminologies are used throughout this training module. Thus,
it is important that these terms are defined and discussed in order to ensure clarity,
appropriateness in the country's context and the correct application thereof.

Learning Objectives:
By the end of this chapter, participants will be able to:

 Define terminologies relating to disaster risk management,

 Understand the need of disaster risk management

 Identify paradigm shifts of disaster in terms of concept, policy and institutional aspects

1.1. Disaster Risk Management Terminologies

Description: This session introduces participants to various concepts and terminologies

commonly used in disaster risk management

Understanding of disaster risk management requires a clear definition of terms and concepts
related to disaster, hazard, vulnerability and risk. For this module, terminologies of the United
Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UNISDR) are used. The terminologies
enable participants to have common understanding and promote common usage of disaster
risk management concepts and assist the disaster risk reduction efforts.
Basic terms of disaster risk management were first published in ‘living with Risk: a Global
Review of Disaster Risk Reduction Initiatives’ in 2004. The following year, the Hyogo Framework
for Action 2005-2015 requested the UNISDR to “update and widely disseminate international
standard terminology related to disaster risk management for use in program and institutions
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development, operations, research, training curricula and public information programs”. Thus,
it is vital to use these terminologies in international, regional and national arenas for both short
term trainings and professional academia. Definitions of the terminologies include the
contemporary understanding and evolving practices of disaster risk management but exclude
words that have a common dictionary usage by UNISDR.

Hazard
There is argument about the origin of the word ‘hazard’, but it is thought that the word came
either from the French ‘hazard’ which means a game of dice predating craps or from the Arabic
‘al-zahr’ which means “the die.” Clearly, the term is rooted in the concept of chance. In the
modern sense of the word, hazards are events or physical conditions that have the potential to
cause fatalities, injuries, property damage, infrastructure damage, and agricultural loss, damage
to the environment, interruption of business, or other types of harm or loss. What determine
whether a hazard becomes a disaster are risk and vulnerability. Hazard is a dangerous
phenomenon, substance, human activity or condition that may cause loss of life, injury or other
health impacts, property damage, loss of livelihoods and services, social and economic
disruption, or environmental damage. The hazards of concern to disaster risk reduction are “…
hazards of natural origin and related environmental and technological hazards and risks.” Such
hazards arise from a variety of geological, meteorological, hydrological, oceanic, biological, and
technological sources, sometimes acting in combination. In technical settings, hazards are
described quantitatively by the likely frequency of occurrence of different intensities for
different areas, as determined from historical data or scientific analysis.

Vulnerability
It is the characteristics and circumstances of a community, system or asset that make it
susceptible to the damaging effects of a hazard. There are many aspects of vulnerability, arising
from various physical, social, economic, and environmental factors. Examples may include poor
design and construction of buildings, inadequate protection of assets, lack of public information
and awareness, limited official recognition of risks and preparedness measures, and disregard
for wise environmental management. Vulnerability varies significantly within a community and
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over time. This definition identifies vulnerability as a characteristic of the element of interest
(community, system or asset) which is independent of its exposure. However, in common use
the word is often used more broadly to include the element’s exposure.

Risk
It is a combination of the probability of occurrence of events and their negative consequences.
The word “risk” has two distinctive connotations: in popular usage the emphasis is usually
placed on the concept of chance or possibility, such as in “the risk of an accident”; whereas in
technical settings the emphasis is usually placed on the consequences, in terms of “potential
losses” for some particular cause, place and period. It can be noted that people do not
necessarily share the same perceptions of the significance and underlying causes of different
risks.

Disaster
It is a serious disruption of the functioning of a community or a society involving widespread
human, material, economic or environmental losses and impacts, which exceeds the ability of
the affected community or society to cope using its own resources. Disaster is often described
as a result of the combination of: the exposure to a hazard; the conditions of vulnerability that
are present; and insufficient capacity or measures to reduce or cope with the potential negative
consequences. Disaster impacts may include loss of life, injury, disease and other negative
effects on human physical, mental and social well-being, together with damage to property,
destruction of assets, loss of services, social and economic disruption and environmental
degradation. Given the above definition and concepts of terms related to disaster, one cannot
argue that there is nothing ‘natural’ about disasters. There are only natural hazards and they
become disasters if they affect human beings to the extent of causing loss in lives and property.
Therefore, a disaster is a function of the risk process. It results from the combination of
hazards, conditions of vulnerability and insufficient capacity or measures to reduce the
potential negative consequences of risk.

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Disasters are the realized hazard risks where as the term ‘disaster risk’ refers to a potential
disaster resulted from the product of the combination of three elements-vulnerability, coping
capacity and hazard. The following formula illustrates this interaction:

Disaster risk (R) = Vulnerability (V) X Hazard (H)/Capacity (C)

Disaster Risk

It refers to the potential disaster losses in lives, health status, livelihoods, assets and services,
which could occur to a particular community or a society over a specified future time period.
The definition of disaster risk reflects the concept of disasters as the outcome of continuously
present conditions of risk. Disaster risk comprises different types of potential losses which are
often difficult to quantify. Nevertheless, with knowledge of the prevailing hazards and the
patterns of population and socio-economic development, disaster risks can be assessed and
mapped in broad terms at least.

Disaster risk management

Disaster risk management is defined as the systematic process of using administrative
directives, organizations, and operational skills and capacities to implement strategies, policies
and improved coping capacities in order to lessen the adverse impacts of hazards and the
possibility of disaster. This term is an extension of the more general term “risk management” to
address the specific issue of disaster risks. Disaster risk management aims to avoid, lessen or
transfer the adverse effects of hazards through activities and measures of prevention,
mitigation and preparedness.

Prevention
Prevention refers to activities to provide outright avoidance of the adverse impact of hazards
and related environmental, technological and biological disasters. Depending on social and
technical feasibility and cost/benefit considerations, investing in preventive measures is
justified in areas frequently affected by disasters. In the context of public awareness and

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education, prevention refers to changing attitude and behaviour towards a “culture of
prevention”.
Mitigation
Mitigation refers to structural and non-structural measures undertaken to limit the adverse
impact of natural hazards, environmental degradation and technological hazards. It can also be
defined as any action taken to minimize the extent of a disaster or potential disaster. Mitigation
can take place before, during or after a disaster, but the term is most often used to refer to
actions against potential disasters. Mitigation measures are both physical or structural (such as
flood defenses or strengthening buildings) and non-structural (such as training in disaster
management, regulating land use and public education).

Preparedness
Preparedness refers to specific measures taken before disasters strike, usually to forecast or
warn against them, take precautions when they threaten and arrange for the appropriate
response (such as organizing evacuation and stockpiling food supplies). Preparedness falls
within the broader field of mitigation.

Disaster Risk Reduction

The concept and practice of reducing disaster risks through systematic efforts to analyze and
manage the causal factors of disasters, including through reduced exposure to hazards,
lessened vulnerability of people and property, wise management of land and the environment,
and improved preparedness for adverse events. It is a comprehensive approach to reduce
disaster risks as is set out in the United Nations-endorsed Hyogo Framework for Action,
adopted in 2005, whose expected outcome is “the substantial reduction of disaster losses, in
lives and the social, economic and environmental assets of communities and countries.” The
International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (ISDR) system provides a vehicle for cooperation
among governments, organizations and civil society actors to assist in the implementation of
the framework. Note that while the term “disaster reduction” is sometimes used, the term
“disaster risk reduction” provides a better recognition of the ongoing nature of disaster risks
and the ongoing potential to reduce these risks.
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Hazard assessment/analysis

Hazard assessment refers to identification, studies and monitoring of any hazard to determine
its potentiality, origin, characteristics and behavior. It is; therefore, the interaction of the
characteristics of a hazard in terms of the type of hazard, its projected intensity, space or
physical location of onset and its duration.

Vulnerability assessment/analysis
Vulnerability assessment is the process of estimating the susceptibility of ‘elements at risk’ to
various hazards and analyzing the causes behind their vulnerability. The assessment takes into
account the physical, geographical, economic, social, political and psychological factors, which
make some people more vulnerable to the dangers of a given hazard while others are relatively
protected.

Risk assessment/analysis
A methodology to determine the nature and extent of risk by analyzing potential hazards and
evaluating existing conditions of vulnerability which together could potentially harm exposed
people, property, services, livelihoods and the environment on which they depend. Risk
assessments (and associated risk mapping) include: a review of the technical characteristics of
hazards such as their location, intensity, frequency and probability; the analysis of exposure and
vulnerability including the physical, social, health, economic and environmental dimensions;
and the evaluation of the effectiveness of prevailing and alternative coping capacities with
respect to likely risk scenarios. This series of activities is sometimes known as a risk analysis
process.

Risk treatment measures

Disaster risk management countermeasures that can be developed based on the information
obtained from the process of risk analysis (hazard, vulnerability, capacity analyses) can be
applied to avoid, reduce, transfer or retain the risk. Disaster risk treatment measures are
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commonly divided into ‘risk control’ and ‘risk finance’. Risk control is further broken down into
‘risk avoidance’ and ‘risk reduction,’ while ‘risk finance’ is composed of ‘risk transfer’ and ‘risk
retention’.

Early warning system

The set of capacities needed to generate and disseminate timely and meaningful warning
information to enable individuals, communities and organizations threatened by a hazard to
prepare and to act appropriately and in sufficient time to reduce the possibility of harm or loss.
It encompasses the range of factors necessary to achieve effective responses to warnings. A
people-centered early warning system necessarily comprises four key elements: knowledge of
the risks; monitoring, analysis and forecasting of the hazards; communication or dissemination
of alerts and warnings; and local capabilities to respond to the warnings received. The
expression “end-to-end warning system” is also used to emphasize that warning systems need
to span all steps from hazard detection to community responses.

1.2. Need for Disaster Risk Management

In History, disasters have adversely affected human’s form of existence. In response, individuals
and societies have made many attempts to reduce their vulnerability to the consequences of
these disasters, develop measures to address initial impact, as well as post-disaster response
and recovery needs. Regardless of the approach adopted, all of these efforts have the same
goal: disaster risk management. The motivating concepts that guide disaster management,
namely the reduction of harm to life, property, and the environment, are largely the same
throughout the world. However, the capacity to carry out this mission is by no means uniform.
Whether due to political, cultural, economic, or other reasons, some countries and some
regions are more capable than others at addressing the problem. But no nation, regardless of
its wealth or impudence, is so far advanced as to be fully immune from the negative effects of
disasters. Furthermore, in the face of the emergence of a global economy it has become more
difficult to contain the consequences of any disaster within the borders of any one country.

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Several times each year, the response requirements of disaster events exceed a single nation’s
or several nations’ disaster management abilities. In these instances, the governments of the
affected countries call upon the resources of the international response community. Such
cooperative international responses and recovery alone, however, are not effective means of
managing disasters if they are performed in the absence of a comprehensive regimen of
preparedness and mitigation activities. Unfortunately, the trends so far indicate that more
disasters are occurring each year affecting a great many people directly or indirectly. Although
disasters are becoming less deadly worldwide, they are causing a much greater financial impact
on both affected and unaffected nations. What seems the most distressing of these trends;
however, is that the poor countries of the world and their citizens are assuming a much greater
proportion of the impacts of such disasters. In sum, recent trends can be categorized as follow:
1. The number of people affected by disasters is rising
2. Overall, disasters are becoming less deadly
3. Overall, disasters are becoming more costly
4. Poor countries are disproportionately affected by disaster consequences
5. The number of disasters is increasing each year
It is true that in Ethiopia there are a wide range of natural hazards including drought, floods,
landslides, pests, earthquakes, and urban and forest fires. Of these the most common natural
hazards are droughts and floods. Flash floods and seasonal river floods are becoming
increasingly common in Ethiopia due to deforestation, land degradation, increasing climate
variability, and settlement patterns. Whilst large-scale flooding is limited to the lowland areas
of the country, flash floods can occur in most parts of the country especially when rains fall
after prolonged dry spells or droughts. Heavy rainfall in the highlands can cause flooding of
settlements in a number of river basins, particularly the Awash River Basin in the Rift Valley.
Flooding in some urban areas, especially in Addis Ababa, occurs annually.

Apparently, most of the developing countries bear the brunt of natural disaster losses. Because
of the considerably low coping capacity, physical, social and economic vulnerability, developing
countries are suffering more from disasters as compared to the developed ones. Ethiopia is

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highly vulnerable to a wide range of disasters originated from both natural and anthropogenic
hazards. Recent experience shows an apparently marked increase in area coverage and
frequency of such disasters.

Although several factors considerably reduce the meaningfulness of disaster statistics,

increased accuracy in the reporting of disaster statistics over the last few decades has helped to
understand that the nature of disasters is rapidly changing. It is now unequivocal that the
nature of disasters resulting from human actions and development patterns is rapidly changing.
The statistical review of the last 50-60 years shows a significant increase in the frequency of
disasters and the people affected, as well as the economic losses due to the impact of natural
and technological hazards. Between 1980 and 2000, more than 1.5 million people were killed
by natural hazards and induced disasters and for every person killed, 3000 are estimated to be
exposed to disasters worldwide. Recent trends indicate that the overall number of people
affected by disasters is rising; overall disasters are becoming less deadly; overall disasters are
becoming more costly; and the number of disasters is increasing each year; and poor countries
are disproportionately affected by disasters. Let us see these trends in detail.

Trend 1: The Overall Number of People Affected by Disasters Is Rising

The world population is not only increasing; its distribution around the globe is also changing
dramatically. Large proportion of the world’s population growth in the coming decades will take
place in the cities of the less developed countries. In 2015 the world will have 58 cities with
more than five million inhabitants. Only ten of these cities will be in the industrialized countries,
with the vast majority in developing countries. Around half of the world’s population already
lives in urban centers; and by 2030 the proportion will have risen to almost two-thirds. Higher
rates of population growth and urbanization assumed high concentration of risk of adverse
events.

Given population growth and urbanization are particularly the characteristics of developing
countries; there are several explanations for the rising number of people affected by disasters:

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1. The higher population density in cities means that the number of potential victims is
much higher in cities than in rural areas. Because of the concentration of goods and
services in cities, the potential economic damage is also enormous.

2. Building methods that are not adapted to existing risks and the absence or inadequate
implementation of disaster-preventive building codes result in rising number of people
affected by disasters.

3. Cities in developing countries often face rapid and uncontrolled urban growth and slum
building. The capacity for risk reduction through urban planning is often limited. As a
result, most settlements are located in hazard zones. Hence, since these high risk areas
periodically experience major disasters, the number of people affected by disasters
tends to increase.

4. Illegal settlements are often established in high-risk locations such as river flats or slopes
where there is high risk of landslides. In the event of a disaster, effective cooperation
between illegal settlers and civil protection authorities is unlikely. In post-disaster
reconstruction, illegal slum-dwellers are also disadvantaged because they have no legal
basis for their claims. Therefore, increasing number of settlers in high-risk areas of cities
with little or no preparedness and contingency planning would assume rising number of
people affected by disasters.

Trend 2: Overall Disasters Are Becoming Less Deadly

Although the number of disasters has increased more than tripled in different parts of the
world since the 1970s, the number of people affected by disasters has fallen by 50%. The
efforts of the UN, many nongovernmental agencies involved in disaster preparedness and
response, as well as the efforts of individual governments have considerably contributed to the
reduction in the number of deaths associated with disasters. The following are some of the
explanations for the falling fatality rates of disasters:

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1. More organized and comprehensive preparedness campaigns are helping individuals
and communities to decrease their vulnerability and to react more appropriately in the
face of disasters.

2. Early warning systems are giving potential victims more time to remove themselves
from the dangerous situations associated with impending disasters.

3. Special disaster-specific protection structures, such as tornado safe rooms, are

mitigating the impact that disasters have on human life.

4. Building code creation and enforcement are helping to increase the resilience of the
various structures and systems upon which humans depend.

5. Secondary, post disaster consequences, such as famine and disease, are being more
effectively managed by modern-public health response mechanisms.

6. Proper zoning procedures and enforcement are helping to prevent people from moving
into the path of disasters and helping to remove those who are already there.

7. Sustainable development processes are helping to reduce population movement into

areas of highest risks.

Trend 3: Overall disasters are becoming more costly

The cost of disasters worldwide is increasing at an alarming rate. In 1990s, the total global
economic costs of disasters with a natural trigger exceeded $US 608 billion. This figure is three
times the total economic loss of 1980s and 9 times to that of 1960s. By 2050, economic costs of
disasters associated with natural adverse events are expected to reach $US 300 billion annually.
The fact that people continue to move toward urban centers and build expensive structures
and infrastructure in the path of hazards, disasters are getting more expensive with potentially
enormous economic damage.

The following are some of the explanations for the rising financial cost of disasters:

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1. Increasing urbanization in high-risk zones is occurring throughout the world with the
concentration of wealth, physical structures, and infrastructure together in these high-
risk zones.

2. Economies are much more dependent upon technologies that tend to fail in times of
disaster and assume greater financial risk.

3. Due to the nature of globalization, areas that are not directly affected are experiencing
secondary economic consequences of disaster, as has been seen with many world
economies following the September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks in the United States.

4. A greater number of less deadly but financially destructive disasters are occurring
throughout the world as a result of climate change and ‘everyday hazards’.

Trend 4: Poor countries are disproportionately affected by disasters

Poverty is one of the major causes of deaths associated with natural disasters. More than half
of all deaths from natural disasters occur in underdeveloped countries. Between 1991 and
2000, half of the disasters took place in countries with a medium HDI (Human Development
Index), while two-thirds of the deaths occurred in countries with a low HDI. Only two percent of
the deaths occurred in countries with a high HDI. Hence, there is a strong correlation between
development and vulnerability to the impacts of hazards. Given, according to the World Bank,
around one billion people live in absolute poverty and more than two billion suffer from
malnutrition, poor sections of the population would incur the greatest impact of disasters.

The following are the most common reasons that explain why the poor in general are often the
most at risk:

1. Poor sections of the population have only limited access to resources such as water and
secured accommodation, education, work, land and health; they are unable to create
financial or material reserves necessary to use as a buffer against the impacts of
hazards.

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2. Poor people have less access to knowledge and information about steps they could take
to reduce their risk.

3. Poor people often migrate to the slums of the big cities, which are frequently located in
areas where natural hazards pose an increased risk.

4. The vulnerability of the poor to natural hazards is also attributed to their income, ethnic
origin, gender and age, and by whether they live in an urban or rural location. Women
and children are particularly hard hit by disasters – partly because of their high rates of
illiteracy, their limited mobility and their widespread social dependence on male
relatives.

Trend 5: The number of disasters is increasing each year

Global disaster statistics indicated that, over time, due to significant interaction between
human and nature, the number of disasters resulting in significant loss of life and property
damage is increasing. There are two primary explanations for the rise in the number of annual
disasters. The first is climate change which increases both the frequency and intensity of
hazards. Particularly, the number of occurrences of hydro-meteorological hazards has
increased over the last few years and over 70% of disaster losses worldwide are associated with
weather related disasters. The second factor which explains the increasing trend of disaster
occurrences is rapid urbanization. Increased human settlements in more vulnerable areas
where poor people often migrate to the slums of the big cities are frequently located in areas
where natural hazards pose an increased risk. Hence, with higher population density in these
vulnerable areas, simple hazard occurrences with low magnitude might have a greater
likelihood of becoming devastating events.

The reasons for these trends are manifold: political instability, economic changes, population
growth and migration, poverty and social conflicts, mismanagement of resources, lack of
awareness and experience among others. All these factors combine in a mix specific to each

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country to lead to both worsening exposure and vulnerability that eventually end up as
disasters.

In Africa, disaster events have increased from an average of 25 in 1975 to 130 in 2000. From the
available data, the economic losses from disasters have also been on the increase globally. The
economic losses from disasters have risen from 75.5 billion dollars in the 1960s, to double the
amount, i.e., 134 billion in the 1970s, have been tripled to 214 billion in the 1980s to staggering
660 billion in the 1990s. These statistics often do not include Africa due to lack of coherent
disaster-related data, especially on economic losses; thus the impact of disasters on the
continent is often underestimated. Statistics from Africa is poor which underestimates the
degree of damage from disasters. Though not the most disaster prone region, Africa remains
the most vulnerable to the impact of disasters. African history, beginning from the colonization
periods, is abundant of disasters as told in folklores or in few instances recorded in history
books. The current images of Africa in the eyes of the world are; unfortunately, marred by its
disasters overshadowing its achievements, natural resources abundance, potentials and the
dedication of its people to come out of poverty.

Hence, Ethiopia’s institutional structure for disaster risk management has undergone numerous
changes in mandate, structure, and scope over the past 30 years. Currently the problem covers
most parts of the country. Still, a number of people are dependent on food aid with
considerable variations in their numbers from year to year depending on the level of output of
the agricultural sector. The extent of floods is also increasing in recent years as well - next to
drought.

1.3. Disaster Risk Management Paradigm Shift

1.3.1. Paradigm Shifts in Understanding Disaster

There are two main approaches to understand paradigm shifts in disaster risk management.
These are conventional (dominant) and alternative (progressive) approaches. According to
conventional approach, natural hazards such as earthquake, drought and flood are used

14
 DRM in Ethiopia
interchangeably with disaster. The understanding of the cause and effect of disasters has
shaped how governments, aid and development agencies, communities, and people in general
have responded to and managed disasters in the past to the end of the IDNDR.

The conventional (dominant) approach: The assumption behind this approach is that disasters
are characteristics of natural hazards. The perception is that disasters are irrevocably caused by
the impact of natural hazards on people and their activities. Disaster is perceived as an
accident; as an unforeseen consequence of unpredictable and uncertain natural force; as an
inevitable occurrence; as an emergency event on which we have no control. Disaster research
focuses on the hazards and attempts to predict their magnitude and occurrence through the
sciences such as seismology and meteorology. Disaster response focuses on interventions to
provide assistance to victims and affected population in their emergency needs and later in
their recovery. Communities are considered 'victims' and 'beneficiaries' of assistance by
'outside experts'.

Natural science approach: In the past natural hazards were seen as "Acts of God". Then,
rationality and science took over and natural hazards were defined by Kates and Burton and
other geographers involved in disaster research as ' elements of the physical environment
harmful to man and caused by forces extraneous to him' or as extreme forces of nature. The
natural science approach equates disasters with hazards such as earthquakes, cyclones and
volcanic eruptions. The concentration is on the description and explanation of hazards. It deals
with geophysical, geological and hydro-meteorological processes involved and focuses on
monitoring of hazard and prediction of hazardous events. This approach does not take into
consideration hazard perception by people. It also eludes issues of social and political
responsibility in creating disasters.

Applied science approach: It determines the magnitude of disasters based on the magnitude
of loss and damage associated with hazard events. Applied scientists, who studied disasters,
observed that the magnitude of a disaster was more closely related to the damages and losses

15
 DRM in Ethiopia
sustained than to the natural event. Disaster research was subsequently conducted on the
exposure and resistance of physical structures to mitigate damage and loss.

Alternative (Progressive) Approach: looks at disasters as part and parcel of the 'normal'
development of societies as unresolved problems of development. The central role of
communities in disaster management is recognized.

Social Science Approach: Since the 1960s, social scientists questioned the dominant view of
understanding disasters. Alternative perspectives in the understanding of disasters emerged in
the 1970s from the work of anthropologists, sociologists and development workers in
developing countries. Gilbert White recognized that engineering schemes were not the only
way to tackle floods in the United States and advocated that for non-structural methods to be
integrated in flood management. Subsequently, hazard research looked into other hazards and
other countries and involved a wide variety of disciplines ranging from geology to sociology.

The social science approach focuses on how hazards are socially perceived and conceived. This
approach posits that while hazards are natural, disasters are not. In their work in the field, the
social scientists also observed that different groups of people have different vulnerability. The
magnitude of a disaster is related to this differential vulnerability. Hand- in- hand with research
on the physical vulnerability of settlements to different hazards, the human ecology of hazards
emerged. This sociological or humanistic viewpoint attempts to explain the differential effects
of hazards not only on physical structures but also on people, their economic activities and
social relationships. It posits that the severity of a natural hazard depends upon who you are,
and what society you belong to at the time of the disaster.

At the extreme position in the social science approach is the structuralist or the political
economy interpretation of disasters. It explains that disasters are characteristics not of the
hazards, but of particular socio-economic and political structures and processes at the national
and global levels. Studies conducted show that groups who often suffer from disasters do not
have access to resources and basic services and vulnerable conditions are prevalent more in

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 DRM in Ethiopia
developing countries than in developed countries. The political economy approach provides an
analysis capable of addressing social processes, organization and change at the national and
global level. There is, however, a tendency to lose sight of the specificity of hazards that local
people face, especially in multi-hazard environments.

Holistic approach: It considers hazards, vulnerabilities and capacities of people and societies in
the understanding of disaster and risks scenarios. Natural phenomena become hazards only
when they pose a threat to persons or property. Natural hazards only result in a disaster if they
coincide with vulnerable conditions. It is not only hazards which cause disaster but also the
political, economic and social environment or context that structure the lives of different
groups of people. A disaster happens when a hazard impacts on a vulnerable population and
causes damage, casualties and disruption.

Research carried out since the 1970s shows that the causes of disasters are closely associated
with unsustainable development patterns, which increase the risks faced by large sectors of the
population. More and more, the distinction of natural and man-made hazards or disaster is
being obscured and it is relevant to view them in their combination as socio-natural hazards.

1.3. 2. International Disaster Risk Management

Course Objective

After the successful completion of this session, participants will be able:

 Understand international disaster risk management policy, organizational and

conceptual shifts;

 Understand major international disaster risk reduction frameworks and activities

International disaster management organizations, agencies, and interest groups have shown a
shift from disaster response to disaster prevention. Although many national governments,
especially in the developing world, have yet to make a dedicated effort toward initiating or

17
 DRM in Ethiopia
improving their pre-disaster management activities, many international development and
disaster management agencies are working to address it. The UN has made a sustained effort to
lead its member nations in addressing their shortfalls first by dedicating the 1990s to the IDNDR
(producing the Yokohama Strategy and the Plan of Action for a Safer World), and then by
following up with the International Strategy for Disaster Reduction to ensure that forward
momentum is maintained.

Today, the United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UNISDR) guides the
efforts of the international community’s overall disaster management mission. The aim of
UNISDR is to build “disaster resilient communities by promoting increased awareness of the
importance of disaster reduction as an integral component of sustainable development, with
the goal of reducing human, social, economic and environmental losses due to natural hazards
and related technological and environmental disasters”.

In January 2005, in Hyogo, Japan, the UN held the World Conference on Disaster Reduction.
More than 4000 participants attended, including representatives from 168 governments, 78 UN
specialized agencies and observer organizations, 161 nongovernmental organizations, and 562
journalists from 154 media outlets. The public forum attracted more than 40,000 visitors. The
outcome of the conference was a “framework for action,” adopted by all member countries,
that outlined members’ resolve to pursue “the substantial reduction of disaster losses, in lives
and in the social, economic and environmental assets of communities and countries by 2015.”

Natural and antropogenic hazards always have occurred, probabily since Noah. Earthquakes,
floods, fires, tsunamis, droughts and conflicts happened since the creation of human kind and
likely will continue to happen in the future. In ancient times, disasters were prceived to be acts
of punishment from God with the assumption that mankind had no power to prevent it. Latter,
with the development of natural and social sciences, disasters were incresingly seen as acts of
nature.

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 DRM in Ethiopia
The understanding of disasters as acts of nature leads to the global concerns on disaster
discourses, most significantly illustrated by the widespread acceptance of disaster risk
reduction as a developmental issue.

Box. 2.1. International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction (IDNDR)

The period 1990-1999, which the UN General Assembly declared as the International Decade
for National Disaster Reduction (IDNDR), led to a greater awareness of the social and economic
consequences of natural disasters. The 1994 Yokohama Strategy noted as follows:
“Natural disasters continue to strike and increase in magnitude, complexity and
economic impact. Whilst natural phenomena causing disasters are in most cases
beyond human control, vulnerability is generally a result of human activity.
Therefore, society must recognize and strengthen new ways to live with such
risk, and take urgent actions to prevent as well as reduce the effects of such
disasters”. (Living with Risk, ISDR 2004, p 9)
The importance accorded to socio-economic vulnerability in disaster risk analysis informed the
crucial role of human action in reducing vulnerability. At the same time, it is acknowledged that
the achievement of disaster reduction as a social and economic imperative required a long-
term perspective. In 1994, the Yokohama Strategy and Plan of Action for a Safer World
conceived at the First World Conference on Natural Disaster Reduction were adopted. The 10
principles outlined in the Yokohama Strategy, the Strategy for the Year 2000 and Beyond and
the Plan of Action put disaster risk reduction firmly on the agenda. The International Strategy
for Disaster Reduction (ISDR), the successor to IDNDR, adopted by the UN General Assembly in
2000, has shifted the focus towards the processes of integrating disaster risk reduction into
environmentally sustainable development. Building on the lessons of the IDNDR, the ISDR
provides a framework for action for reducing human, economic and environmental losses due
to disasters triggered by natural hazard and related technological and environmental
phenomena.

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 DRM in Ethiopia

Source: ISDR, 2004

Box. 2.2. International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (ISDR),

At the end of the IDNDR, the frequency, severity and cost of disasters has underlined the
importance of intensifying public and private commitments to hazard and risk reduction.
However, approaches were mainly emergency response-focused and did not look at long-term
development-oriented actions as a way of dealing with risks. UN has established an
International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (ISDR), a global platform aimed at helping all
communities to become resilient to the effects of disasters and proceed from protection
against hazards to the management of risk through the integration of risk prevention into
sustainable development with the goal of reducing human, social, economic and environmental
losses due to natural hazards and related technological and environmental disasters.

Its implementation based on partnerships between governments, non-governmental

organizations, UN agencies, the scientific community and other stakeholders in the disaster
reduction community, is an integral part of efforts aimed at promoting the overall goal of
sustainable development.

The ISDR takes a global approach to disaster reduction by seeking to involve all individuals,
communities and nations to work toward the goal of reducing the loss of lives, the socio-
economic setbacks and the environmental damages caused by natural hazards, all of which
impact negativelly on sustainable development. Inorder to achieve these goals, the ISDR
promotes four objectives as tools for reaching disaster: Increase public awareness to
understand risk, vulnerablity and disaster reduction globally; obtain commitment from public
authorities to implement disaster reduction policies and actions; stimulate interdisciplinary and
inter-secoral partnerships, including the expansion of risk reduction networks; and improve
scientific knowledge about disaster reduction.
Source: (www.unisdr.org)

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 DRM in Ethiopia

Box 2.3. The Hyogo Framework for Action (HFA)

The Hyogo Framework for Action (HFA) 2005-2015: Building the resilience of Nations and
Communities to disasters, adopted by 168 governments at the 2nd World Conference on
Disaster Reduction in Kobe, Japan on January 2005 (more than 4000 participants). It provides
the Strategic Goals and Priorities for Action to be considered and implemented by all actors and
stakeholders of disaster reduction at national, regional and international levels in from 2005-
2015. The key message of the HFA was considering disaster reduction as a long term national
and international development priority and to promote a multi-stakeholder, multi sectoral and
multi-hazard approach in dealing with disasters.
HFA priorities for action 2005-2015 are mentioned below:

1. Disaster risk reduction as a priority with strong institutional basis for action/Policies
and governance: ensure that disaster risk reduction is a nati onal and
local priority with strong institutional basis for implementation.
2. Identify, assess and monitor disaster risks and enhance early warning. Risk
identification: identify, assess and monitor disaster risks and enhance
early warning.
3. Use Knowledge, innovation, education for culture of safety and resilience at all levels
4. Reducing the underlying risk factors:
5. Strengthen disaster preparedness for effective response

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 DRM in Ethiopia

Critical reflection:
 Discuss how and why IDNDR Started;
 What are the roles and responsibilities of ISDR?
 Identify other major international organizations and discus their roles;
 Using the Hyogo Framework Priorities for Action, evaluate and discuss the Ethiopian
Disaster Management/Disaster Risk Management System.

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 DRM in Ethiopia

1. 3.3. Regional Disaster Management

Course Objectives:

Upon completion of this course, participants will be able to:

 Identify and describe major African disaster risk management organizations and their
initiatives;
 Identify the regional disaster risk management frameworks, strategies and
arrangements;

In Africa, the increase in disasters events has been from an average of 25 in 1975 to 130 in
2000. African countries have made significant progress in disaster risk reduction, especially in
terms of ratifying policies, institutions, and establishing organizational arrangements. In
response to growing risks, a number of major efforts were underway at the regional, sub-
regional, and national levels to reduce the risk of disasters. At the regional level, the African
Union (AU), together with the New Partnership for Africa’s Development Secretariat and with
its partners has formulated a continental disaster risk reduction strategy: Africa Regional
Strategy for Disaster Risk Reduction (2004) and Program of Action for the Implementation of
the Africa Strategy for Disaster Risk Reduction (2005-2010).

The aim of the African Regional Strategy for Disaster Risk Reduction is to contribute to the
attainment of sustainable development and poverty eradication by facilitating the integration
of disaster risk reduction into development with the overall goal of reducing the social,
economic and environmental impacts of disasters on African people and economics, thereby
facilitating the achievement of the MDGs and other development aiming in Africa.

The strategy focuses on interventions to address issues of food security and disaster
management in Africa. The objectives of the strategy are to: (1) increase political commitment
in the reduction of disaster risk; (2) improve identification and assessment of disaster risks; (3)
enhance knowledge management for disaster risk reduction; (4) increase public awareness of
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 DRM in Ethiopia
disaster risk reduction; (5) improve governance of disaster risk reduction institutions; and (6)
integrate disaster risk reduction in emergency response management.

Box 2.4. Some of the worst disasters in Africa, 1972–2000

Year Type of disaster Country Number killed Number affected

1972 famine Ethiopia 600 000 no data
1973 drought Ethiopia 100 000 no data
1974 drought Ethiopia 200 000 no data
1980 drought Mozambique no data 6 000 000
1982 famine Ghana no data 12 500 000
1983 drought Ethiopia no data 7 000 000
1984 drought Ethiopia 300 000 7 750 000
1984 drought Sudan 150 000 8 400 000
1985 drought Mozambique 100 000 2 466 000
1987 drought Ethiopia no data 7 000 000
1990 drought Ethiopia no data 6 500 000
1991 drought Ethiopia no data 6 160 000
1991 drought Sudan no data 8 600 000
1993 drought Malawi no data 7 000 000
1993 famine Ethiopia no data 6 700 000
1999 famine Ethiopia no data 7 767 594
2000 drought Ethiopia no data 10 500 000

Source: CRED-OFDA 2002

A notable element of regional and sub-regional mechanisms for disaster risk reduction in Africa
is giving emphasis to political commitment in the creation of appropriate governance
mechanisms for disaster risk reduction.The African sub-regional countries have experienced
varied disaster risks that may depend on their geographical locations, ethinic diversity and
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 DRM in Ethiopia
mode of administration, and the development status of the country. To avert such risks, these
countries are making efforts to develop their sub-regional policies, legislation, plans and
organizational structures for disaster risk management. See the boxes below for some of the
sub-regional initiatives.

Box 2.5. Southern Africa Development Community (SADC) sub-regional strategy for DRR;

The Southern Africa Development Community (SADC) has developed a sub-regional DRR
strategy for member countries: Angola, Botswana, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Lesotho,
Malawi, Mauritius, Mozambique, Seychelles, South Africa, Swaziland, Tanzania, Zambia and
Zimbabwe. SADC has been at the forefront of the development of regional strategic
frameworks for drought, disaster management and, more recently, the mobilizing of the
necessary political commitment to implementation. The development of an emerging disaster
management strategy of integrated services and programmes for drought management in
SADC serves as an illustration of the range of regional roles in disaster risk reduction.

Box 2.6. Disaster Risk Management Program in the IGAD Region

Among the African countries, Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia, Sudan and Uganda are
beloging to the region of the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD). The IGAD
Sub-Regions have experienced an increased impact of disasters which have taken lives,
destroyed livelihoods and damaged its socio-economic development.

The trends in increasing disasters and disaster losses have clearly challenged the limited
capacity of the IGAD member states and their communities to prepare for, respond to and
mitigate from the adverse effects of disasters. To break this negative trend, the IGAD region
has developed a sub-regional strategy for disaster reduction (ISDR, 2008). Seven main strategic
areas are outlined for the operation:

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 DRM in Ethiopia

 Development of disaster preparedness strategies and the contingency planning process;

 Elaboration of supporting policies, legislation and agreements for disaster management;

 Improvement of regional collaboration for preparedness and response;

 Strengthening of early warning and information systems and vulnerability analysis;

 Development of education and training for disaster mitigation;

 Improving preparedness for impact and needs assessment and resource mobilisation; and

 Improving preparedness for targeting, implementation and monitoring and evaluation of

relief and rehabilitation assistance.

Critical reflection:

 Identify other African/sub-regional disaster risk management organizations and DRR

frameworks and compare with the IGAD region disaster risk management programs.

Most often the term natural hazard which includes such calamities as earthquake, drought and
flood is used interchangeably with natural disaster. This is a direct offshoot of the dominant
approach in understanding disasters. The understanding of the cause and effect of disasters
has, indeed, shaped how governments, aid and development agencies, communities, and
people in general have responded to and managed disasters in the past and through the end of
the IDNDR.

1.3.4. National Disaster Risk Management

Disaster risk management in Ethiopia has passed through three government structures and two
policies. As a result, multidirectional paradigm shifts have been undertaken. Some of these
technical and conceptual shifts were:

Firstly, it shifted from focusing exclusively on drought/food hazards to all-hazard and multi
sectoral approach with lead agency for management of each hazard. Moreover, it shifted from
26
 DRM in Ethiopia
reactive ex-post emergency response and relief work to pro-active ex-ante disaster risk
management approach through focusing on pre-disaster activities. Attention was also given to
risk and vulnerability profiles/assessments. Great emphasis was given to full cycle disaster risk
management (prevention, mitigation, preparedness, emergency response preparedness,
emergency response recovery, and rehabilitation).

Secondly, there was a shift from duplicated and uncoordinated efforts system to single
standardized national system. The third shift was form non harmonized system and
standardized methodologies to decentralized preparedness and decision making authority for
response. The fourth was from centralized decision making approach to community centered
one. Fifthly, there was a shift from ambiguous duties and responsibilities of various actors at all
levels to clear, delineated and demarcated duties and responsibilities at all levels. The sixth was
from little or no linkage between EW/monitoring data/assessment findings and responses to
early warning, monitoring or assessment data to serve as a basis for preparedness and
response. The seventh one was from no alignment with mission and vision to aligned activities
(among all administrative levels and with vision and mission). The eighth shift was from
functional-based structure, improper placement with poor decision making mechanisms to
improved decision making mechanism (process-based structure, proper placement, and
structure, proper placement, and decentralized decision making authority). Finally, there was a
shift from poor information communication to ICT and other technologies supported system
communication.

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 DRM in Ethiopia

REFERENCES

Beyene Sebeko and Mathewos Hunde (2010). The Redirected Ethiopian Disaster Risk
Management systems, Early Warning and Response Directorate, Ethiopia. Workshop
on Drought Risk Reduction in the HoA, lessons learnt from community based
operations in Ethiopia, Kenya and Uganda, The Sarova Stanley, Nairobi
Damon P. Coppola (2007). Introduction to International Disaster Management, Elsevier Inc.
Framework for UNDP Ethiopia's Climate Change, Environment and Disaster Risk Management
Portfolio
International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (ISDR) (2002). Leaving Disaster Behind, Disaster
Risk Reduction, Governance & Development
International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (ISDR) (2002). Living With Risk: A Global Overview
of Disaster reduction Initiatives, Preliminary Version, Geneva.
International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (ISDR) (2004). Disaster Risk Reduction,
Governance & Development
International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (ISDR) (2004). Living with Risk: A Global Review of
Disaster Reduction Initiatives, 2004 Version, Volume II, No IV.
International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (ISDR) (2008). Report on the status of Disaster Risk
Reduction in the Sub-Saharan Africa Region.
NEPAD (2004a). Program of Action for the Implementation of the Africa Strategy for Disaster
Risk Reduction (2005 - 2010) December 2004
NEPAD (2004b). Africa Regional Strategy for Disaster Risk Reduction, July 2004;
UNISDR (2009). Terminology on Disaster Risk Reduction.http://www.unisdr.org). UNDP
Ethiopia 2011.
United Nations/International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UNISDR). Disasters in Numbers.
Available at http:/www.unisdr.org

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 DRM in Ethiopia

Chapter Two: Disaster Risk Management in Ethiopia

Objectives of the chapter:

After completion of this chapter, participants will be able to:

 Identify common hazards and their originated disasters

 Realize the historical progresses of disaster management and institutional
reorganizations
 Identify disaster risk management related policies, strategies and activities in Ethiopia
 Understand international commitments to promote disaster risk management as top
priorities

Ethiopia is the most vulnerable to natural and man-made hazards. Among others drought,
flood, landslide, crop-pests, conflict, infrequent earthquake and wars were the major triggering
events for the past many years and were causing incalculable suffering to communities and
millions of dollar worth of property destructions. Drought induced famine has, for many years,
been the worst disaster from which millions of Ethiopians, mostly rural residents, experienced
immense anguish and it still remains a national policy agenda and problem. Over the last three
decades, Ethiopia learned the hardest way to transform its disaster management from a mere
apparatus of response and recovery to preparedness, mitigation, and development. Resources
and technical (technological) capacities aside, Ethiopia now possesses a wealth of drought
disaster management experiences.

As has been said, Ethiopia has been suffering from a wide range of hazards such as drought,
floods, landslides, human and animal diseases, pests, earthquakes, conflict, and urban and
forest fires. Recurrent drought and floods, in particular, have the most severe impacts on
people’s lives in the country. Ethiopia is highly vulnerable to a wide range of disasters
originating from the aforementioned hazards because of a number of inter-linked factors.

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 DRM in Ethiopia
These include dependence on rain-fed agriculture, under-development of water resources, land
degradation, low economic development and weak institutions.

2.1. Historical Perspectives of Disaster Risk Management in Ethiopia

Ethiopia’s institutional framework for disaster risk management has undergone numerous
changes in mandate, structure, and scope over the past 30 years. In 1973/74; for example,
Ethiopia experienced one of the worst famines that claimed more than a quarter of a million
lives and affected more than three and half million people in almost ten administrative
provinces of the country. When the then Imperial Regime fell, the country was in the grip of the
Sahelian famine - an event that affected numerous countries but none more so than Ethiopia
where an estimated 200,000 people died.

The reactions of the Imperial government to the Sahelian drought in the 1970s, however, were
too limited to avert massive displacement and widespread mortality. Initiatives were
undertaken prior to the establishment of the government’s Relief and Rehabilitation
Commission (RRC) in 1974. The first formal government disaster management institution was
the Drought Relief Operations Coordination Office (DROCO) established by the Ministry of
National Community Development and Social Affairs with a mandate to supply relief to drought
victims.
Recorded history of disaster in Ethiopia goes back to 250 BC (Webb, et.al. 1992). Major causes
are drought, flood, human and livestock diseases, crop pests, war, conflict etc. Famine and
hunger - due to drought and other natural and manmade hazards - are the most catastrophic
hazards causing widespread suffering in Ethiopia. The most recent famines in living memory are
the famine of 1972-73, 1984-85, 1993-94, 1999-2000 and 2002-2003. The first two resulted in
serious damage in terms of loss of lives and livelihoods, due to a lack of appropriate
preparedness and a system that was not capable of properly managing the effects of disaster.
Recent experience shows an apparent marked increase in area coverage and frequency of such
disasters. This is because, though the eastern half of the country has long been more sensitive
to the stated hazards and disasters, now some parts of the western half of the country are also
experiencing similar kinds of situations.
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 DRM in Ethiopia
The 1973/74 and 1983/84 famines in Ethiopia that left millions of deaths, suffering and
dislocation to the poor farmers in the country were mainly attributed to absences in the
systems of government administration that failed to put an early warning system in place.
Following the devastating 1973/4 famines in the Northern part of Ethiopia, the Relief and
Rehabilitation Commission (RRC) was established. During its 20-year existence; however, RRC
focused on disaster response and the distribution of relief supplies.

By lacking advance preparedness and experience, RRC was overwhelmed with the huge task of
relief operation and reaching out affected people by the famine, let alone undertaking long-
term prevention and rehabilitation as stipulated in the legislation. Mobilizing domestic relief
resources, organizing humanitarian supplies from abroad and undertaking relief and
rehabilitation measures disproportionately took time and resources.

The Government of Ethiopia revised its disaster management strategy and ratified National
Policy on Disaster Prevention and Preparedness Management (NPDPM) in 1993 which led to a
shift in thinking based on the perceived need to more closely link the relief and development
agendas. The accompanying policy directive was issued in 1993 and the policy implementation
guidelines were developed in 1995. The major objectives of the NPDPM were to save lives,
integrate relief assistance with development efforts in order to mitigate the impacts of
disasters, and to enhance the coping capacities of the affected population through the creation
of assets in the affected areas. The NPDPM guided relief management policies, institutions, and
processes whereby drought disasters were detected and resources, especially food aid, were
mobilized and prioritized for affected areas.

In 1995 the government restructured and renamed the RRC to establish the Disaster Prevention
and Preparedness Commission (DPPC), with significant changes in the mandate, i.e., giving
particular emphasis to linking relief to development. Furthermore, since 1993, policy making
and oversight responsibilities regarding disaster management have been vested on the National
Disaster Prevention and Preparedness Committee (NDPPC). Key sector offices such as the
Ministries of Agriculture and Rural Development, Health and Water Resources also became

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 DRM in Ethiopia
more involved in disaster management since 2003, through the establishment of emergency
sectoral task forces.

In 2004, DPPC was renamed the Disaster Prevention and Preparedness Agency (DPPA), with a
revised and more restricted mandate to focus on acute cases of emergency response. The
responsibility to coordinate employment generation which is one of the major strategies that
link relief with development was reassigned from DPPC to the newly created Food Security
Coordination Bureau (FSCB). DPPA was no longer responsible for addressing the underlying
causes of disasters, and was responsible only to respond to rapid onset hazards or
unpredictable events. FSCB addressed national food security through a productive safety nets
program, other food security-related projects that attempted to enhance assets and
livelihoods, and a voluntary resettlement program. At the institutional level, DPPA was
responsible for transitory vulnerability, while FCSB dealt with chronic vulnerability. In practice,
though, many perceive that this distinction between chronic and transitory vulnerability is not
so clear-cut in reality, and that there is some movement of households between categories.

In 2007 following the introduction of Business Process Reengineering (BPR), the rights and
obligation of the DPPA were transferred by proclamation to the Ministry of Agriculture and
Rural Development (MoARD), which led to the establishment of the Disaster Risk Management
and Food Security Sector (DRMFSS) within the MoARD. This new institutional arrangement
brought a paradigm shift in the approach to disaster management in terms of moving from a
drought and relief focused approach to a more pro-active multi-sectoral and multi-hazard
Disaster Risk Management (DRM) approach. DRMFSS oversees two directorates: the Food
Security Program Directorate (FSPD) and the Early Warning and Response Directorate (EWRD).

Based on the lessons learned from previous experience, the Government of Ethiopia has
ratified a comprehensive DRM policy in 2013. The policy includes the necessity of a multi-
hazard approach grounded in a deep understanding of specific disaster risk, and its link to
development and vulnerability; emphasis on prevention, mitigation, preparedness and post-
disaster modalities and capacities; de-centralization of resources and structures; a clear
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 DRM in Ethiopia
determination of DRM responsibilities, supported by the capacity for legal enforcement and a
high degree of accountability.

The new DRM policy provides the direction for the kind of DRM system Ethiopia is envisioning
to have in the future. It relies on organizational structures with appropriate and harmonized
roles and responsibilities at federal, regional and woreda levels. Horizontal and vertical
coordination among decision-making bodies and effective DRM systems, processes and
procedures are ensured.

This approach has now changed, following a series of institutional changes that have begun in
2007 with the government’s Business Process Re-engineering program and have led to the
establishment of a Disaster Risk Management and Food Security Sector (DRMFSS) underneath
the Ministry of Agriculture. The DRMFSS has overseen a large shift in attitude and practice,
moving towards an increasingly multi-hazard and multi-sectoral approach, and is overseeing
the drafting of a new National Policy and Strategy on Disaster Risk Management (the NPSDRM)
that contains a greater emphasis on the delegation of powers to the regional and local levels, as
well as community involvement. In particular, it moves away from the 1993 policy’s focus on
drought and aims to the improvement of information on community vulnerability and flood
preparedness.

In the past two years, the Ethiopian government has made a strategic shift towards the
adoption of a disaster risk management system, turning away from an appeals-based
emergency response and crisis management system to one in which risks are assessed and
mitigated before the worst outcomes emerge. As one step in this direction, the government has
established the Disaster Management and Food Security Sector (DMFSS) within the Ministry of
Agriculture and Rural Development (MOARD), replacing the Disaster Prevention and
Preparedness Agency (DPPA).
In this country, PASDEP (2005-2009), GTP (2010-2015) and agriculture Sector PIF (2010-2020)
shows the governments continued effort and commitment to better mainstream the issue of
Disaster Risk Management agenda. In Ethiopian GTP, higher emphasis is given to reducing

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 DRM in Ethiopia
vulnerabilities and increasing capacities to disasters. Moreover, enhancing the existing Early
Warning system for effective, timely and appropriate response to disasters is needed to be
well-integrated to the overall agricultural development in the country.

2.2. International Conventions and frameworks to strengthen Ethiopian DRM

According to SPIF (2013), On the basis of Hyogo framework for action (HFA) and African
Regional Strategy for Disaster Risk Reduction, the government of Ethiopia has made significant
effort in making the following priority areas to be included many of its DRM efforts. It is well
know that, The HFA serves as the primary international framework on DRM. Its five areas for
priority action are:

1. Ensure that disaster risk reduction is a national and a local priority with a strong
institutional basis for implementation;
2. Identify, assess and monitor disaster risk and enhance early warning;
3. Use knowledge, innovation and education to build a culture of safety and resilience at
all levels;
4. Reduce the underlying risk factors;
5. Strengthen disaster preparedness for effective response at all levels.

“The Hyogo Framework for Action also makes an explicit commitment to gender stating that
“gender perspectives should be integrated into all DRM policies, plans and decision making
processes, including those related to risk assessment, early warning, information management,
education and training.”

The Africa Regional Strategy for DRR is consistent with the HFA and transforms the strategic
documents produced by the joint initiatives of the AU, NEPAD, etc. into detailed actions for
policy makers, decision makers, disaster managers, and development practitioners at sub-
regional, national, and community levels. It points to the limited effectiveness of risk reduction
policies and institutional mechanisms for DRR currently in place in Africa. In particular, it
identifies gaps in the following areas: institutional frameworks, risk identification, knowledge

34
 DRM in Ethiopia
management, governance and emergency response. A strategy is then devised to address these
issues. It has six objectives:

1. Increase political commitment to DRR;

2. Improve identification and assessments of disaster risk;
3. Enhance knowledge management for DRR;
4. Increase public awareness of DRR, including the participation of women, youth and
other vulnerable groups in decision-making in DRR.
5. Improve governance of DRR institutions;
6. Integrate DRR in emergency response management.

There are also a number of international and regional institutions that are relevant to the
present framework. Ethiopia is a member of IGAD, the Inter Governmental Authority on
Development. Initially established in 1986 as a body uniting six Horn of Africa governments
involved in drought response and management, IGAD has since then expanded its focus to
promote intergovernmental cooperation in the areas of food security and environmental
protection, promotion and maintenance of peace, security and humanitarian affairs, and
economic cooperation and integration. Among its objectives is to achieve regional food security
and to encourage and assist efforts of Member States to collectively combat drought and other
natural and man-made disasters and their natural consequences. IGAD also reiterates the
importance of integrating gender and youth in the regional responses through their gender
policy and strategy, including disaster risk management. Moreover, Ethiopia is a priority
country for the Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR), an international
partnership initiative to help developing countries reduce their vulnerability to natural hazards
and adapt to climate changes. The GFDRR aims to mainstream DRR measures in development
and help countries achieve financial resilience to disasters. Finally, Ethiopia participates
actively in DRM related African Union initiatives, such as the AU summits and the AU Technical
Committee on DRR”.

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 DRM in Ethiopia
2.3. Ethiopia’s DRM Strategic Programme and Investment Framework (DRM-SPIF)
The Disaster Risk Management (DRM) system of Ethiopia is divided along six pillars and three
phases. The three pillars – prevention, preparedness, and mitigation – constitute the core of
disaster risk reduction. It also comprises the breadth of the pre-disaster phase of the DRM
cycle. Disaster response covers the disaster phase while (early) recovery and rehabilitation
constitute the post-disaster phase. Institutional strengthening is the pillar which supports an
enabling environment for the integration of these various components along the different
phases of DRM. Providing the foundation for the DRM pillars is monitoring and evaluation and
resource mobilization. The prevention and mitigation pillars are made up of six programs
namely: communication and awareness raising, research, community disaster risk
management, mainstreaming, Climate Change Adaptation (CCA) and Disaster Risk Reduction
(DRR) integration, and DRR Programs, which complement and support the implementation of
programs on preparedness, response, and recovery and rehabilitation.

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 DRM in Ethiopia

Figure 1: Ethiopia’s Disaster Risk Management and Investment Framework (source: DRMFSS
2013)

2.4. Goal and Guiding Frameworks of SPIF

As it is clearly stated in the SPIF (2011), on the basis of HFA, GTP and the new DRM policy the
SPIF was developed to support the BPR exercise in the whole DRM process. The overriding goal
of this strategic program and investment framework is to reduce vulnerability, impacts of
disasters through efficient, effective, holistic and integrated disaster risk management system
in the country. According to SPIF (2010) specific success indicators of the aforementioned goal
are listed below;

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 DRM in Ethiopia
1. Disaster risk is prevented and mitigated and a culture of risk reduction is built at all
levels;
2. Disaster risk is timely forecasted and effective mitigation and response are undertaken;
3. Emergency services and public assistance during or immediately after a disaster are
provided to save lives and meet the basic subsistence needs of the people affected;
4. Livelihoods and living conditions of disaster- affected communities are restored, and
improved to withstand future disasters;
5. An enabling environment for the implementation of DRM is created and strengthened.

In SPIF, programs are designed to meet the purposes of the framework in question to transform
Ethiopian DRM in coordinated way. Quite interestingly, the framework is founded on the
priority actions in designing the programmes of implementation which substantially coincides
with the time frame and purposes of the Ethiopian GTP.

2.5 Disaster Risk Management Principles

As stated by SPIF “The development and implementation of the different program components
of this DRM Strategic Plan and Investment Framework are guided by the following basic
principles”:

1. DRM shall be an integral component of national development efforts. Therefore, all

development programs, including post-disaster recovery measures, shall incorporate
disaster risk management components in their regular plans and programs;

2. Natural resource endowments in crisis-affected and crisis-prone areas shall be

protected and promoted in the context of comprehensive risk management strategies;

3. DRM systems shall be decentralized and community-based whereby communities play

decisive roles in the planning, execution, monitoring and evaluation of disaster risk
management projects and programs;

4. DRM systems will ensure the proper participation of all stakeholders including the
private sector, academic and research institutions, humanitarian organizations, etc.;

38
 DRM in Ethiopia
5. DRM systems will ensure accountability and responsibility of all concerned actors at all
levels;

6. No human life shall be lost for want of basic relief assistance in times of disaster;

7. Information management is a vital element of disaster risk reduction, and early

warning information in particular is a right of citizens;

8. DRM systems shall protect and fulfill the basic needs, rights, and dignity of affected
populations;

9. Relief interventions shall impartially address the basic needs of all disaster victims,
especially at the initial stages of fast onset emergencies;

10. DRM systems shall take into account the cultural norms, beliefs and practices of
communities;

11. Relief efforts shall be followed by development initiatives in order to minimize

detrimental effects such as dependency on relief assistance and to promote the
recovery of livelihoods;

12. DRM systems will give due attention to especially vulnerable groups such as women,
children, the infirm, people living with HIV/AIDS, the disabled and the elderly;

13. DRM systems shall be free from all forms of malpractice;

14. Sustainable and comprehensive capacity-development is critical for DRM success. This
includes the capacity building of institutions (government, civil societies, and private
sector), communities and individuals on sustainable and continuous manner;

15. Disaster risk management in Ethiopia shall be grounded in a comprehensive and

rigorous understanding of the specific disaster risk affecting the country;

16. The DRM-SPIF builds on existing institutions and on lessons learnt from the past.

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 DRM in Ethiopia

Box: 2.1. Case Study

Collaborative Emergency Capacity Building in Ethiopia (Pilot Project)

Ethiopia is one of the pilot countries for the Emergency Capacity Building (ECB) Project. The
project is a collaborative effort of the seven agencies of the Inter-agency Working Group on
Emergency Capacity. The goal of the pilot project is to improve the capacity for disaster risk
reduction among IWG agency staff, affected communities, and local and national authorities. It
focuses on identifying and developing appropriate preventive models and promising practices
for disaster risk reduction (DRR) and the strengthening of community mobilization efforts in the
prevention, mitigation, and preparedness to disasters. The Initiative also supports inter- and
intra-agency cohesion and collaboration on risk reduction and building links with partners
beyond the IWG agencies.

The pilot project suggests the following key challenges to DRR implementation in Ethiopia:

 Lack of national DRR platform

 Limited capacity of relevant stakeholders
 Weak coordination among NGOs, UN and government agencies
 High vulnerability (poverty, HIV/AIDS, malaria)
 Inconsistent application of lessons learned
 Poor cross-learning across various initiatives
Key lessons from External Collaboration

 Education linked to research and advocacy is an effective means of shifting public

perception.

 Agencies have more influence acting as a collective in promoting DRR initiatives

nationally.

 If support or involvement from national government is limited, focus on building the

capacity of local NGO’s engaged in DRM efforts.

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 DRM in Ethiopia
2.6. Disaster Risks Profiling in Ethiopia
Ethiopia has a long record history of disasters both natural and anthropogenic origin. The
country is vulnerable to disasters caused by drought, earthquake, flood, war and conflict,
human and livestock diseases, pests, wildfire and landslide, amongst others (IIRR/USA, 2007).
Recurrent drought and flood in particular have the most severe impacts on people’s lives and
livelihoods. The country’s vulnerability to such hazards is due to a number of interlinked factors
that include dependence on rain-fed agriculture, underdevelopment of water resources, land
degradation, low economic development and weak institutions.

A wide range of natural and human-induced hazards are associated with the country’s diverse
geo-climatic and socio-economic conditions. Disasters arising from some of the hazards have
caused widespread damage and loss, while others remain potential threats. Natural hazards in
Ethiopia include, among others, drought, flood, crop pests, and seismic and volcanic activities.
Historically, severe drought has been particularly important causes of loss of lives and
livelihoods and of political instability.

Human-induced hazards include, among others, conflicts resulting from competition for scarce
resources and other factors, war, transport accidents and fire (forest and urban).These hazards
are assuming greater importance over time.

The vulnerability of the country is aggravated by poor agricultural and livestock practices, a
fragile and degraded natural environment, extensive poverty, underdeveloped infrastructure,
uneven settlement patterns and population pressure, inefficient markets, variable and changing
climatic conditions, competition over scarce resources and border issues.

The frequency and severity of some hazards such as drought, flood, human and livestock
disease outbreaks are likely to increase in the future, especially due to climate change and
other exogenous factors (FDRE, 2011).

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 DRM in Ethiopia
2.6.1. Drought
Drought induced famine has been the worest disaster in the history of Ethiopia from which
millions of people, mostly rural residents, experienced immense anguish and still remains a
national policy agenda and problem (Abebe, 2010). Ethiopia has a long history of recurring
drought. The recorded history of drought in Ethiopia goes back to the year 250 BC (Webb, et.al.
1992). There have been many national and localized droughts in the past and communities
managed most of them through their own coping mechanisms (DPPC, 2004). It has been
documented that between the 9th century and the Great Ethiopian Famine of 1888-1892,
thirteen drought years were recorded (DPPC, 2004). However, since the 1970s, the magnitude,
frequency, and impacts of drought have become more sever, in terms of frequency, area
covered and the number of people affected (DPPC, 2004; ISDR/WB, 2009). Based on the
findings from a study by the United States Agency for International Development (USAID,
2003), the frequency of nationwide droughts causing severe food shortage increased from once
every 10 years in the 1970s and 1980s to every three years in the past few decades.

Figure 2.1 Features of drought

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 DRM in Ethiopia
Box. 2.1. Definition of Drought

Drought can be defined in four different ways:

Meteorological - a measure of departure of precipitation from normal. . Meteorological
drought is expressed solely on the basis of the degree of dryness (often in comparison to
some "normal" or average amount) and the duration of the dry period

Agricultural - refers to a situation when the amount of moisture in the soil no longer
meets the needs of a particular crop. Agricultural drought specifically concerns the
effects of water shortages on crops and grasses and other forages. Therefore, agricultural
drought is most closely associated with deficiencies that occur in soil moisture and lead
to losses in yield. Agriculture is usually the first sector to experience the devastating
effects of drought.

Hydrological - occurs when surface and subsurface water supplies are below normal.
(i.e., stream-flow, reservoir and lake levels, groundwater) rather than with precipitation
shortfalls.
Socioeconomic - refers to the situation that occurs when physical water shortage begins
to affect people. Socioeconomic drought associates the supply and demand for some
economic good with elements of meteorological, agricultural, and hydrological drought.
For example, the supply of an economic good (e.g., water, forage, hydroelectric power) is
weather dependent. Therefore, drought could be defined as occurring when the demand
exceeds supply as a result of a weather-related supply shortfall.

Although drought is not necessarily a disaster by itself (rather a natural phenomenon or

hazard), in the Ethiopian context, drought hazard is more or less synonymous with disaster. The
country’s vulnerability to drought and other natural hazards is due to the dependence on rain-
fed agriculture, under-development of water resources, land degradation, low economic
development, weak institutions and rapid population growth (ISDR/WB, 2009). In Ethiopia,
minor climatic variations or other adverse factors can trigger acute food security, which can

43
 DRM in Ethiopia
easily escalate to full scale disaster. In recent ears, 1973-74, 198485, 1999-2000, 2001-2002
and 2005-2006, a significant amount of population was affected by drought related disasters.

NB:
Of all the hazardous events, drought has, over many centuries, triggered famines that
caused human losses of catastrophic proportions in Ethiopia. Although the country
experienced its first drought-induced famine in the second half of the 9th Century, recorded
history confirmed that recurrent famine, coupled with disease epidemics, claimed many
lives and caused internal displacements unabated since the 13th century (Pankhurst, 1983;
Relief and Rehabilitation Commission [RRC], 1984). In 1973/74, Ethiopia experienced one of
its worst famines that claimed more than a quarter of a million lives and affected more than
three and half million people in almost ten administrative provinces of the country (RRC,
1984). Pastoralists also lost 80% of their herds (RRC, 1984). Not only did it make headlines
in the international media for several months, but also it became the most salient
immediate cause of the downfall of Haileselassie's government in 1975. On a positive note,
the international media contributed immensely in attracting humanitarian relief supplies
for the millions of the affected people.
Source: Abebe, M. (2000)

a) Causes of drought in Ethiopia

The causes of droughts are strongly debated with some researchers pointing to rainfall
variability. The impact of drought is exacerbated by unplanned and unregulated land use, weak
ecosystem management, methods of cultivation, increased human and livestock populations
that have put pressure on the natural environment; heavy dependence on rain-fed
agriculture/pasture and water; land degradation, urbanization, and other development-related
factors that increase the vulnerability of people to drought risks.

44
 DRM in Ethiopia

Figure 2.2: Vulnerability to drought in Ethiopia

There are factors other than drought that play a major role in the increasing vulnerability of
Ethiopia’s rural populations. The most influential factors of increasing disasters include:
 Rapid increase of human and livestock population pressures on the already exhausted
land and pasture;
 Fragmentation and decreasing size per family of land holdings and insufficient land
management/use system;
 Desiccation of water sources, due in part to the destruction of the natural vegetation
cover from deforestation, overgrazing and mountain slope cultivation and a lack of
sustainable water conservation measures;
 Low access to basic social services (market, public health, water, sanitation, education),
technology and other inputs that might improve their productivity;
 Near complete dependence on rain-fed agriculture and lack of access to irrigation;
 Limited and unsustainable off-farm employment opportunities and gross inequalities
between the poor and the rich.
Source: DPPC, 2004

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 DRM in Ethiopia

Critical reflection:

 Identify practical example/s for the causes and effects of drought in Ethiopia;

 In the Ethiopian context, drought is synonymous with food insecurity and

famine. Discuss the reason behind it;

 Drought is a human induced hazard. Argue for or against this view by providing
evidences.

In addition to rain irregularities and other social factors, many researchers believe that the
occurrence of various droughts in Ethiopia is caused by physical processes related to the
occurrence of El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events along with Sea Surface Temperature
(SST) anomalies in the Southern Atlantic and Indian Oceans combined with anthropogenic
activities. Some studies have linked the Ethiopian droughts and famine periods with major
ENSO years as follows:

Table 2. 1: Chronology of El Niño and Drought/Famine in Ethiopia

El Niño Years Drought/Famine Regions

1539-41 1543-1562 Hararghe
1618-19 1618 Northern Ethiopia
1828 1828-29 Shewa
1864 1864-66 Tigray and Gondar
1874 1876-78 Tigray and Afar
1880 1880 Tigray and Gondar
1887-89 1888-1892* Ethiopia
1899-1900 1899-1900 Ethiopia
1911-1912 1913-1914 Northern Ethiopia
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 DRM in Ethiopia
1918-19 1920-22 Ethiopia
1930-32 1932-1934 Ethiopia
1953 1953 Tigray and Wollo
1957-1958 1957-1958 Tigray and Wollo
1965 1964-66 Tigray and Wollo
1972-1973 1973-1974 Tigray and Wollo
1982-1983 1983-1984 Ethiopia
1986-87** 1987-1988** Ethiopia
1991-92 1990-92 Ethiopia
1993 1993-94 Tigray, Wollo, Addis
Source: Webb and Braun, 1994

b) Impact of drought in Ethiopia

Drought in Ethiopia tends to have severe environmental, economic and social impacts. It
aggravates environmental degradation through ecosystem and climatic effects, including
deforestation, livestock overgrazing, soil erosion, wild land fires, biodiversity loss and water
pollution. Social effects include reduced potable water supplies with negative health and
sanitation consequences, especially for vulnerable groups, a higher burden on women who
collect water for household consumption and migration pressures. Droughts can also have
adverse effects on disease prevalence. For example; in the 1984/85 drought Ethiopia
experienced a severe outbreak of cholera as well as high cases of epdemics both in urban and
rural areas.

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 DRM in Ethiopia

Figure 2.3: Impact of Drought

c) Drought and Famine in Ethiopia

In the Ethiopian context, the worst consequence of drought hazard is acute food insecurity
which can easily be escalated to full scale famine. Ethiopia became synonymous with famine
after it was given media coverage for its three major famines observed in 1973-4, 1984-5 and
2002-3 and claimed thousands of lives and still affecting the dignity of the country. However,
not all food insecure nations and not all food insecure people are equally or even necessarily
vulnerable to famine (Habte-Wold and Max-well, 1992; Watts and Bohle, 1992, cited in Webb
et al. 1994). Food insecurity and famine are different concepts although they deal with the

48
 DRM in Ethiopia
most basic need of life- food and famine results from lack of food security (Ayalew, no date).
According to Webb et al. (1992), it is a combination of the degree of poverty, the degree of risk
of failing to secure local food and income, and the chance of receiving external assistance that
defines vulnerability to famine (Webb and Braun, 1994). Famine is defined as a catastrophic
disruption of society as manifested in a cumulative failure of production, distribution and
consumption systems, and thus famine has three principal manifestations (Webb and Braun,
1994):

1) Extreme, geographically concentrated shortfalls in food consumption that result in chronic

loss of body weight and a rise in excess mortality (a net increase above average rates),

2) Massive social disruption, including community dislocation (increased distress migration and
out-migration of entire families) and abnormal behavior (increased reliance on foraged foods,
conflict among neighbors, increased begging),

3) Long-term resource depilation, including the degradation of productive material assets of the
natural resource base and of human capital.

Following this description, it can be concluded that not all of Ethiopia is affected by the past
famines and not everyone in the affected areas is prone to famine. Particularly, the northern
highlands and the lowland parts of the eastern Ethiopia are historically vulnerable to famine.

Other researchers documented that the root causes of famine extend far beyond climatic
anomalies and are inextricably bound to the combination of shocks, failing systems, and poor
policies. For example; Sen (1981) argues that the 1973/74 Ethiopian famine was a result of
entitlement failure rather than a food deficiency. “Using the entitlement framework, Sen
demonstrated that a decline in food availability was neither necessary nor sufficient to create
hunger. He showed that famine could occur in the absence of any change in production, if the
value of the people’s production and work activities declined relative to the cost of staple food.

49
 DRM in Ethiopia

Critical reflection:
In defining famine, the Oxford Advanced Learner’s Dictionary put Ethiopia as an example of a
famine country. Why do you think is the case? Discuss its ground and identify justifications to
comment the definition.

2.6.2 Flood
Different factors contribute for the vulnerability of Ethiopia to floods. Primarily, its rugged
topography and steep slopes aggravate floods. The highlands are extensively deforested; rains
are sometimes heavy and torrential; water converges in river basins and causes swelling of
rivers. The watersheds of the major rivers are highly degraded with negligible vegetation cover,
reducing infiltration into the ground and increasing runoff.

UNPLANNED AND UNREGULATED LAND USE

1. Rural Risk Aassessment in Ethiopia:

Rural Risk Assessment

18

Figure 2.4: Vulnerability to flood in Ethiopia

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 DRM in Ethiopia

Figure 2.5 Features of Flood (DPPC, 2004)

Flash and seasonal river floods are becoming increasingly common in Ethiopia due to a number
of human-induced causes such as land degradation, deforestation, increased population
density, inadequate land use planning and zoning, inadequate drainage systems, poor wetland
management, unplanned settlement patterns and increasing climate variability. For example,
the major floods in 1988, 1993, 1994, 1995, particularly that of the 1996 and 2006 flood,
triggered disasters that have claimed the lives of hundreds of people, displaced hundreds of
thousands and destroyed physical, natural and economic assets.

Table 2.2: Top 10 Disasters in Ethiopia, 1999-2009

Hazard People affected Date
Drought 12,600,000 2003
Drought 4,500,000 2008
Drought 2,600,000 2005
Flood 361,600 October 2006
Flood 239,586 July 2007
Flood 235,418 April 2005
Flood 110,000 April 2003
Flood 79,000 October 1999
Flood 45,000 October 1999
Flood 38,000 August 2006
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 DRM in Ethiopia
Source: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED

Figure 2.5: Impact of Flood

2.6.3 War and civil strife

War and conflict in Ethiopia goes back to its ancient history. Wars have been fought at different
times against foreign aggressors and between different communities in Ethiopia. The struggle
for political power and control of resources has been the major cause of conflict among the
peoples of Ethiopia.

2.6.4 Epidemics
Epidemics, both human and livestock, have also caused serious famine in the country. The
Great Famine of Ethiopia (1888-1892) was probably caused by an epidemic of a livestock
disease, rinderpest. Malaria is endemic in more than 70 per cent of the country and often
reaches the scale of an emergency during and immediately after the rainy seasons. HIV/ AIDS is
a more recent threat that rapidly reached the level of a major epidemic.

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 DRM in Ethiopia
2. 6.5 Seismic activities
Ethiopia is prone to seismic activity (earthquakes) with the most recurrent example being in
Afar region. Though the frequency of occurrence is low, earthquakes can cause catastrophic
situations, destroying property and causing loss of life, especially along the Rift Valley. In the
1960s an earthquake destroyed the entire town of Kara Korie and several nearby villages.

2. 6.6 Landslide
Landslides have also claimed the lives and property of many people, particularly in the Southern
Nations, Nationalities and Peoples Region (SNNPR) and Amhara regions. In recent years,
landslides along the Nile Gorge have displaced many people.

Critical reflection:

Discuss the threat of seismic and volcano risks in Ethiopia

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 DRM in Ethiopia

REFERENCES

Braun, J. Von, & Webb, P. (1 994). Famine and Food Security in Ethiopia: Lessons for Africa.

Bromley, D. (1989) Property relations and economic development: the other land reform,
World Development, 17, pp. 86 7– 87 7.

CRED (1997-2001). Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED), Office of U.S.
Foreign Disaster Assistance (OFDA), CRED statistics for 1997-2001).

Devereux S, Maxwell S. (2001). Food Security in Sub-Saharan Africa. London: ITDG

Disaster Prevention and Preparedness Commission (DPPC) (2004). Ethiopia National

Information on Disaster Reduction: Report for the World Conference on Disaster
reduction (Kobe-Hyogo, Japan, 18-22 January 2005). Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.

Disaster Risk Management Programs for Priority Countries (2009). The World Bank/ISDR
Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia: Climate Change National Adaptation Program of
Action (NEPA) of Ethiopia.

FEDRE (2013), National Policy and Strategy on Disaster Risk Management Policy.

Disaster Risk Management Strategic Program and Investment Framework (DRM-SPIF)(2013),

DRMFSS

DPPC (2004). Evaluation of the response to the 2002-03 Emergency in Ethiopia: Steering
Committee for the Evaluation of the Joint Government and Humanitarian Partners
Response to the 2002-03 Emergency in Ethiopia

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 DRM in Ethiopia
EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED Intentional Disaster Database, Universite catholique de Louvain,
Brussels, Belgium.

IGAD (2007). Disaster Risk Management Training Manual. December 2007

International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (2013). Ethiopia: Country
Case Study Report, How Law and Regulation Supports Disaster Risk Reduction.

Kay Sharp (1998). Between Relief and Development: Targeting Food Aid for Disaster Prevention
in Ethiopia

Melaku Ayalew (No date). Food Security and Famine and Hunger, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

Mulugeta Abebe (2010). Disaster Management in Ethiopia: A Review of Its Checkered History,
Its Transformation and Some Implications for a Vibrant Disaster Management System,
1975-2008. Journal of Sustainable Development in Africa. Vol. 12; No. 4. Clarion University
of Pennsylvania, Clarion, Pennsylvania

Sue Lautze, Angela Raven-Roberts and Teshome Erkineh (2009). Humanitarian governance in
the new millennium: an Ethiopian case study; HPG Working Paper. Overseas
Development Institute.

UNISDR and World Bank (2009). Disaster Risk Management Programs for Priority Countries:
Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery.

United Nations Development Program (UNDP, 1992). An Overview of Disaster Management:

Disaster Management Training Programme,

Wisner, Ben; Blaikie, Piers; Cannon, Terry; Davis, Ian (2004). (2nd Ed) .At Risk: Natural hazards,
people’s vulnerability and disasters. New York: Routledg.

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 DRM in Ethiopia

Chapter 3: Ethiopia Early Warning Experiences

Objectives of the Chapter

Upon successful completion of this chapter trainees will be able to:

 Understand the concept of early warning systems

 Identify the time when early warning systems started to exist in Ethiopia
 Identify disaster risk management related policies, strategies and activities in Ethiopia
 Understand international commitments to promote disaster risk management as top
priorities

3.1. Conceptual understanding of Early Warning System

Early Warning consists of two words. The word ‘Early’ implies that time is an important factor in
the process. Therefore, information should be made available at the right time so that it will be
possible to plan and implement appropriate intervention mechanisms which help to prevent
human suffering from the adverse effects of disasters. The word ‘Warning’ implies that having
information about an impending danger. Therefore, ‘warning’ , on the other hand, is signs and
signals, including scientific and indigenous indicators, that a hazard is likely to happen and ‘Early
warning’ is the provision of timely and effective information, through identified institutions,
that allow individuals exposed to a hazard to take action to avoid or reduce their risk and
prepare for effective response.

Early warning is a process of monitoring household economy indicators affecting its livelihood
with a view to warning of the threat of disaster ahead of time. The warning should in principle
trigger timely and appropriate measures. The formal UN definition describes the term Early
Warning as: “The provision of timely and effective information, through identified institutions,
that allow individuals exposed to hazard to take action to avoid or reduce their risk and prepare
for effective response”.
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 DRM in Ethiopia
3.2. Elements of Early Warning Systems

For the sake of common understanding of Early Warning, the UN Inter-Agency Secretariat of
the International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UN/ISDR) has identified four key elements of
an EWS: (1) Risk Knowledge, (2) Monitoring and Warning Service, (3) Dissemination and
Communication, and (4) Response Capability. Each of these elements is further described in the
following manner:

(1) Risk Knowledge – It is the prior Knowledge of the risks faced by communities. Risks arise
from both the hazards and the vulnerabilities that are present. What are the patterns and
trends in these factors? Risk assessment and mapping will help to prioritize early warning
system needs and to guide preparations for response and disaster prevention activities. Risk
assessment could be based on historic experience and human, social, economic, and
environmental vulnerabilities. Environmental pressure is taken as one of the factors
contributing to increased risk.

(2) Technical Monitoring and Warning Service for These Risks: There is a need for a sound
scientific basis for predicting the risks faced. Therefore, constant monitoring of possible
disaster precursors is necessary to generate accurate warnings in a timely fashion. Multi-
hazard approaches must involve various monitoring agencies.

(3) Dissemination & Communication of Understandable Warnings to those at Risk: The

warnings need to get to those at risk. Consequently, people at risk need to understand
these warnings. To make this possible these warnings have to contain useful information
that enables proper responses. Communication channels from regional to national and then
to community levels have to be pre-identified and it is also necessary to have one
authoritative voice.
(4) Response Capability - Knowledge and Preparedness to Act: it is essential that communities
understand their risks; respect the warning service and should also know how to react.

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 DRM in Ethiopia
Building up a prepared community requires participation of formal and informal education
sectors, addressing broader concept of risk and vulnerability.

In general, disaster reduction is aimed at motivating societies at risk to become engaged in the
conscious management of risk and reduction of vulnerability. Determining the need to warn,
even issuing an accurate and timely warning, is not the end goal of an early warning system.
The ultimate goal is to save lives and property. Therefore, early warning needs to become part
of a management information system for decision-making in the context of Woreda disaster
management strategies and particularly in the contingency plan. And for the realization of
strong EWS, key actors should include communities, local and regional governments and
institutions, national governments and institutions, non-governmental organizations and
donors, the private sector, and science and academic community.

3.3. Components of Early warning systems

Good early warning systems need to have strong linkages between the four elements stated
above. The major players concerned with the different elements have to meet regularly to
ensure that they understand all of the other components and what other parties need from
them. Therefore;

 Risk scenarios need to be constructed and reviewed and specific responsibilities

throughout the four elements need to be agreed and implemented.
 Studying past events will help to improve the early warning system.
 Manuals and procedures needs to be agreed on in consultation with communities.
 Information material should be distributed to the communities at risk.
 Operational procedures such as evacuations have to be practiced and tested on a
regular basis.
Activities involved in an early warning process include; data collection, information
development, dissemination methods and action triggering mechanisms. Thus, the EWS process

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should be understood in the context of an integrated and holistic risk management framework.
Furthermore, cross cutting themes such as good governance, institutional arrangements, multi-
hazard approaches to EWS, involvement of local communities, gender and cultural diversity are
also essential in the development, use and determination of the most appropriate EWS. EWS
must be able to trigger timely response so that it will be possible to intervene before the crisis
point has been reached, to protect livelihoods before lives are threatened. Moreover, EWS
must be seen to be geared to protect future capacity to subsist as well as ensuring current
social well-being of the communities at risk. It should; therefore, be able to detect localized
pockets of severe stress and trigger signals for early action.

Behind all of these activities, EWS has to bear a solid base of political support, laws and
regulations, institutional responsibility, and trained people. Early warning systems need to be
established and supported as a matter of policy; preparedness to respond has also to be
engrained in society fittingly considering the local knowledge.

3.4. Importance & Uses of EWS

Practically not limited to traditional early warning indicators, EWS need to put emphasis on the
monitoring of markets, rights, assets and opportunities to change livelihoods of the people. It is
good to use traditional EW indicators as long as they are able to trigger response action, as they
customarily used to; if at all these are still working under the dramatically changing global and
local environments.

In general, EW is a process of monitoring various indicators affecting livelihood with a view to

warning of the threat of disaster ahead of time. The warning should, in principle, trigger timely
and appropriate preventive measures. It is also viewed as a multi-sectoral and multidisciplinary
business involving local communities, government agencies, donors and NGOs.
In the Hyogo Framework for Action 2005-2015, which is the roadmap negotiated by
governments at the World Conference on Disaster Reduction in Kobe, Japan in 2005, DRR
priority number two is the EWS. In the framework, there are clearly spelt out activities under

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this priority. These are: risk assessments, early warning, capacity enhancement and focusing on
regional and emerging risks. Outputs of EWS can include: short to medium term weather
forecasts, prediction of the onset and cessation of a rainy season, prediction of wet and dry
spells, climatic forecasts and soil moisture monitoring, and outlook for onset of drought.

3.5. Historical Background of EWS in Ethiopia

At a time when Ethiopia had no early warning system, migration was used as the key indicator
for the presence of famine and accounts of famine were passed to the central government
through rumors and informal reports by the local administrators. Previous Ethiopian
governments were also sluggish in their responses to disasters due to lack of adequate
information, resources, and political will. Since response was generally very late, many lives
were lost. Food aid used to be thrown from the air to the most affected areas, as was the case
during the 1973/74 famine.

A formal famine early warning system was established following the 1973/74 famine that killed
more than two hundred thousand Ethiopians. The Ethiopian Early Warning System (EEWS), was
set up in 1977 within the then Relief and Rehabilitation Commission (RRC). Ethiopia has a
number of Early Warning Systems (EWS). The Government’s EWS is one of the oldest in Africa
and can count on significant expertise and a vast, de-centralized structure, with EW staff in
every woreda. The DPPC used to receive information from the Ministry of Agriculture, the
NMSA, the Ethiopian Nutrition Institute, and the Central Statistics Authority.

Practicing the same to these days, the Ethiopian National Meteorological Services Agency
(NMSA), collects and distributes agro- climatic information such as rainfall, temperature, water
balance, and sunshine of the country. NMSA disseminates "flash reports" and seasonal
forecasts. The NMSA agro-meteorology service also releases crop situation reports and four
annual seasonal output reports, two at the beginning and two at the end of the ‘meher’ (main
cropping season which begins in September) and ‘belg’ seasons. So far, lack of competence at
the lower level of the government hierarchy remained as one well known problem of the early
warning system in Ethiopia. Again, for there exists; somehow, a kind of association between El

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Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and drought in Ethiopia; the NMSA is known to use ENSO
information to supplement its meteorological early warning system. According to the NMSA, a
cool event (La Niña) leads to decreased rainfall in the ‘belg’ season (February-May) and heavy
rainfall during the main (‘kiremt’) rainy season (June-September). A warm event is associated
with an above-normal rainfall during the ‘belg’ season. According to previous droughts, a
positive SST anomaly that lasts at least a year is always associated with severe ‘kiremt’
(June/September) drought in Ethiopia. Thus, during ENSO years, ‘belg’ rains are heavy and the
main summer (‘kiremt’) rains are reduced. In normal seasons, ‘belg’ rains are variable and the
main rains are stable.

For example, based on the 1986 El Niño information, "NMSA has provided a seasonal forecast,
and the DPPC (the then RRC) succeeded in averting the 1987 famine". In 1988 and 1989 also,
the Ethiopian authorities and donors used ENSO data to recommend appropriate policies
regarding the amount of land to be cultivated, input supplies (seeds, fertilizers), and
conservation of food and water. It is following the receipt of the 1992 ENSO information that
the Transitional Government of Ethiopia (1991-95) set up the Disaster Prevention and
Preparedness Committee in the Prime Minister's Office. And so, the famine conditions of 1994
were averted due to the appropriate use of the 1993 information. In 1996, the summer floods
were predicted by the National Meteorological Services Agency. The NMSA warned of possible
flooding in its May 1996 forecast. In June 1996, the DPPC; in turn, distributed an early warning
to its users.

The potential beneficiaries of ENSO information in Ethiopia are farmers, herders, and the
government and the success of an ENSO early warning depends on the actions taken by its
users. The information concerning the advent of an ENSO event could warn both cash and food
crop producers. Based on such information, farmers could introduce adequate agronomic
changes. At the national level, surplus food could be stored for the next season, and additional
food could be imported in anticipation of shortfalls. Herders might also sell off part of their

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herds before the arrival of drought. ENSO information is useful, but it has also some
weaknesses when applied to specific local conditions.

ENSO-based weather and climate prediction is general in nature and less effective in providing
locally specific drought early warning. Again, topography tends to make local microclimates
unique and makes broad statements about the weather, without stating how the information
could be used in which case the famine early warning will be ineffective.

Box: 3:1
The genesis of EDM systems are associated with the 1973/74 famine and the establishment of
Relief and Rehabilitation Commission (RRC). Disaster Management structures and systems have
a relatively short history in Ethiopia having evolved after the 'great famine' of 1973/74 when
the first government institution, the Relief and Rehabilitation Commission (RRC) was created.
The responsibilities of RRC was mobilizing relief resources from domestic and international
sources and providing the support to areas affected by drought. The RRC (subsequently called
the Disaster Prevention and Preparedness Commission (DPPC) had the responsibility for
providing relief to disaster affected populations, particularly for those affected by severe
drought. Around this time, the need to develop an early warning system (EWS) as a crucial
component of disaster management become apparent, as over a quarter of a million deaths in
the central and northern highland areas of the country were reported. The lack of a national
preparedness strategy and the absence of an effective EWS revealed a pressing need to
concentrate and strengthen the government's capacity to produce early warning information
on which to base its response to future emergencies.

The National Early Warning System (EWS) has been in place in Ethiopia since 1976. It is
supported by a National Committee for Early Warning (NCEW), whose members, as stipulated
in ‘Directives for Disaster Prevention and Management,’ include senior staff members of EWRD,
Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development, Ministry of Health, Central Statistical Authority,

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Ethiopian Mapping Authority, and NMA. In 1996 the multi-agency Early Warning Working
Group (EWWG) was established to coordinate early warning activities related to food-insecurity
among government agencies, donors, UN agencies, and NGOs. Early warning committees at all
levels, including woredas, gather information and report to higher-level committees.

The EWS conducts hazard assessments periodically and yearly by monitoring social, economic,
cultural and physical indicators. The EWS was established to “monitor and warn the threat of
disasters ahead of time to trigger timely, appropriate, and preventive measures.” However, the
primary focus of the EWS has been to monitor causal factors of food insecurity. Thus, it
monitors the occurrence of drought, rainfall, pests, and the outbreak of human and livestock
diseases that affect the availability of and access to food. The existing EWS is not well-suited to
fast-onset natural hazards such as floods, and certain rapidly spreading diseases and pests, and
conflicts.

Communication among the kebele (community), woreda, regional, and federal levels is at the
core of the early warning system and must be strengthened for effective functioning of the
system. This includes improved systems for data collection, analysis, and dissemination to end
users, as well as strengthening of the communication channels from the community to national
levels. There is widespread recognition, among government and development partners, of the
need to develop a more unified, transparent, coordinated, and objective early warning system,
that has a system of “checks and balances.” Although there exist more than 30 early warning
systems, methodologies, and approaches in the country, there is no coordinating framework
that brings together the different streams of information into a multi-sectoral early warning
system that assesses hazards in, e.g., agriculture, health, nutrition, and natural resources
management. There should be one major unified early warning system that assesses multi-
sectoral hazards across the country, including monitoring of drought risk, food insecurity,
health epidemics, malaria outbreaks, livestock diseases, and market information. This requires
the coordination of early warning activities from the community level up to the federal levels,

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across line Ministries at the federal level, and among the many actors and donors working on
early warning issues at the community, regional, and national levels.

Improved data collection at the local level and a strengthened multi-hazard early warning
system requires reliable information on climate monitoring. The National Meteorological
Agency (NMA) currently has about 1,000 hydro-meteorological stations of various classes
located throughout the country. However, information at the local level is seen as unreliable,
and not captured in a way that would allow the community itself to use the data for early
warning and forecasting, and for planning of crop-livestock systems. There is a need to provide
capacity building for better and more reliable climate information at the local level through
climate downscaling, expansion of hydro-meteorological stations, and support for new
technologies.

The NMA is promoting the “Mali model” for community-based climate monitoring whereby
climatic data, along with other data (e.g., on vegetation, crops and livestock status, human and
animal health and nutrition, water resource availability and quality, environmental indicators,
etc) are collected at the community level to help in forecasting and early warning, and also to
better understand local conditions. In turn, this information can be used together with
agriculture and heath extension agents for planning farming systems and livelihoods that have
higher returns, and are more resilient to hazards, and are environmentally sustainable.

In Ethiopia, there is an abundance of institutions engaged in disaster early warning, baseline

information and food security surveillance activities. Governmental bodies engaged in early
warning, surveillance and baseline data information systems include the DPPC (ENCU, monthly
monitoring, bi-annual crop and food needs assessments, and SERA), the Central Statistics
Agency (agriculture, population and housing; demographics and health), NMSA, the Welfare
Monitoring Unit, and various line ministries.

Recently, the EWS was reviewed, checklists were re-designed and roll-out of the system has
been conducted at regional and wereda levels. The National Meteorological Agency (NMA) also

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publishes seasonal forecasts and meteorological bulletins, which help to inform humanitarian
and development actors as well as farmers via local radio and DAs. In addition, the LEAP
software also uses geo-spatial and meteorological data in order to provide information about
the likely crop production outcomes and effects on livelihoods. Future work includes
refinement and verification of LEAP outputs against actual data, software expansion to cover
pastoral areas and to predict floods. Finally, a process to conduct regular analysis of food price
data from both the CSA and the EWS has already been established.

Early Warning information is regularly shared through periodical bulletins and to DRM partners’
fora, such as the DRM Technical Working Group (DRMTWG), so as to inform decision-making.
However, the DRM-SPIF recognizes the need to enhance the linkage between Early Warning
and early action and puts in place measures to do this. In addition, greater disaggregation of
early warning data and guidance for gender-sensitive responses are areas where the DRM-SPIF
should play a role.

3.5.1 Ethiopian Early Warning Paradigm Shifts

In the course of time the EEWS has undergone considerable changes in three major areas:
organizational, conceptual and methodological.

Organizational changes: The EWS is decentralized giving more power to the regional offices
regarding data collection and analysis. The process has both hopes and fears.
On the hope side, information collectors have the opportunity to be closer to local needs, and
have greater scope for designing an early warning system that is appropriate to local
conditions. On the fear side, managing a complex system of early warning could prove difficult
for staff in regions and zones where there is a capacity problem.

Even under conditions of decentralization, the federal system still has important roles to play.
It:
• prioritizes between the needs of different regions in the event of disaster,
• allocates resources at national level,
• issues international appeals on behalf of the nation,
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• mobilizes domestic resources,
• ensures quality control in early warning performance around the country
Conceptual considerations: It is to be remembered that in the 1990s, several important
documents were developed to guide the early warning system & food security. These include:
(1) The National Food Security Policy; (2) The 1993 National Policy for Disaster Prevention and
Preparedness Management (NPDPM); (3) General Guidelines for the Implementation of the
National Policies on Disaster Prevention and Preparedness Management; and (4) The Five-Year
Disaster Prevention Plan (1998-2002).

The formulation of the National Policy on Disaster Prevention and Preparedness (NPDPP)
shifted the emphasis from famine relief to disaster prevention, preparedness and response.
Timely response then became key to saving lives & livelihoods. This was accomplished in two
phases. The first includes the provision of food, shelter and medical services to victims of
disaster and every effort is made to prevent depletion of key assets. The second phase
comprises, where & when it is needed, the provision of farm inputs such as oxen, seeds & hand
tools in cropping areas and restocking of depleted livestock herds in pastoral areas. The
following Table captures many of the changes that have taken place or taking place in disaster
prevention in general and early warning in particular.
Box: Major areas of change in disaster management
The Past The Present &Future
 One agency show Multi-agency effort
 Top-down relief planning Bottom-up relief planning
 Centralized EWS Decentralized EWS

 Donor-driven intervention Recipient-driven response

 Unclear responsibilities and Clear delegation of authorities and responsibilities

Authorities Comprehensive preparedness modalities

 Limited preparedness modalities Targeting food assistance to the most needy

 Focus on general affected Creation of employment

Relief or development
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population Saving lives and creation of community assets
 Free food handout Preparedness for early response
 Relief Protection of crops and preservation of livestock
 Saving lives Focal points and center of co-ordination defined

 Late intervention Full community participation with gender

 Neglect of livelihood consideration

 Focal point at various levels Conscious and proactive planning targeting to

undefined address root cause of disaster

 Imposition of projects/programs Use of relief efforts to assist development efforts

 Reactive response to disaster and use of development programs to eliminate

symptoms root cause of food insecurity

Source: Yibrah Hagos (1996) The National Policy on Disaster Prevention ad Preparedness and
Management,

Methodological considerations: The Ethiopian Early Warning System is based on monitoring

‘aggregate’ indicators for an administrative area or agro-ecological zone or woreda. The system
monitors largely economic resource indicators using the following approaches: monthly
monitoring of food security at woreda level, seasonal assessments, and emergency ad-hoc
disaster area assessment, the principal output of the system being to determine areas needing
assistance, beneficiary numbers, and duration of assistance. The system has been criticized for
the following constraints:

 Too complex and resource intensive – requires skilled staff at all levels and requires
efficient communication channels, which is lacking in most parts of Ethiopia;
 Not suitable for pastoral and agro-pastoral areas in Ethiopia,
 Lack of baseline (contextual) information.

The Business Process Re-engineering (BPR) during 2008-2009 again has restructured the
institutional arrangement for disaster risk management, and established the Disaster Risk
Management and Food Security Sector (DRMFSS) under the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural
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Development (MoARD), with a significant shift in policy direction; DRMFSS assuming all
responsibilities of the former DPPA and FSCB. DMFSS oversees two directorates: the Food
Security Program Directorate (FSPD) and the Early Warning and Response Directorate (EWRD).
Under the new structure, DMFSS undergoing a major shift in its approach from traditional
reactive ex-post emergency response and relief work to pro-active ex-ante preparedness and
disaster risk reduction.

There is a Task Force on DRM, led by DRMFSS, that is supposed to bring together all of the
Ministries that deal with DRM at the sectoral level: Ministry of Water Resources, Ministry of
Health, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development, Ministry of Environment, and NMA;
including forum and other similar working groups and platforms, such as the Early Warning
Working Group (EWWG), Rural Economic Development – Food Security (RED-FS) Group, and
the Sustainable Land Management (SLM) national platform, etc.

DRMFSS at federal and regional level is the focal agency to coordinate all disaster related
activities through its different sections. The early warning system activity is coordinated by
Early Waning and Response Directorate or Department (EW&RD) of DRMFSS at Federal or
Regional levels. It is supported by the Early Warning Working Group (EWWG), with members
from line ministries, UN agencies and NGOs with different assessment mechanisms and
methodologies in use.

The system is so arranged to involve all stakeholders (local communities, Federal and Regional
governments, NGO’s and donors) to participate in seasonal assessments and in the production
of food supply prospects, appeal and monthly early warning reports. And so far the very well-
known EW report produced on a monthly basis is the one produced by SC-UK in collaboration
with the regional governments, WFP/VAM and FEWS NET.

Generally, instead of monitoring only rainfall, vegetation and crop production, decentralized
early warning and response capacities that take into consideration local traditional knowledge
are said to have many more advantages than centralized ones.

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Figure 2: Institutions involved in Early warning Systems at different levels (Source: Lautze S. et
al., 2003)

Early Warning Systems

The GOE is to be commended for its efforts to attract the attention of the international
community to the depth and breadth of this crisis. It did not wait for the donors to come
forward with pledges of resources but moved aggressively to provide assistance. The

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humanitarian community’s early (and continuing) efforts to augment these interventions were
vital for keeping the most vulnerable in their communities.

A total of sixteen different disaster early warning and surveillance systems were analyzed by
the team, including those managed by government, donors, UN agencies and NGOs. A key
focus of the DPPC’s systems of early warning and surveillance is to prevent a repeated
occurrence of the types of famines that struck Ethiopia in the 1970s and 1980s. Measured
against this objective, the DPPC has been highly effective. In recent years, including this year,
its information has induced government, donor, UN and NGO humanitarian responses on an
adequate scale to prevent the mass migration of vulnerable populations to famine camps,
thereby avoiding the worst of the famine images that were once synonymous with Ethiopia.
This important and laudable accomplishment has saved many lives.

Other government bodies involved in early warning and surveillance considered in the report
include a pilot program for Livestock Early Warning System (LEWS), the Welfare Monitoring
Unit (WMU) and other services provided by the Ministries of Health and Agriculture, and the
National Metrological Services Agency (NMSA). Although there is a plethora of systems, there
at present is no capacity within government for meta-analysis of all of the data generated by
the range of government institutions. Within institutions (with the exception of emergency
food aid responses), information systems are not strongly linked to mechanisms to trigger
appropriate and timely emergency responses. This is a particular problem within the line
ministries (e.g. MoH and health related nutrition problems, MoA and pastoralist vulnerabilities).
Overall, non-food early warning and surveillance systems are inadequate for the scope and
breadth of risk and vulnerabilities facing a diverse range of Ethiopian communities. Surveillance
systems are not based on livelihood systems; it is therefore not possible to devise appropriate
livelihoods-based emergency and recovery strategies.

Currently, the only active donor early warning system is the USAID-supported Famine Early
Warning System (FEWS). Heavily dependent upon secondary data, FEWS is currently in a
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process of shifting to a more livelihoods-oriented focus. The EU has disbanded its Food Security
Unit (FSU). The FSU had been a key player in the Ethiopian Network on Food Security and its
reports were influential within the EU Delegation in Addis as well as with Brussels. The closure
of the FSU has resulted in a compromised capacity of the EU to obtain independent food
security information. No donor actively monitors health and other non-food indicators. The
team considered three UN-managed systems, including WFP’s Vulnerability Assessment
Mapping, the joint Crop and Food Supply Assessment and the UN Emergencies Unit for Ethiopia
(UN-EUE) periodic reports. Systematic monitoring and assessment of non-food vulnerabilities is
weak, while existing systems have a heavy reliance on secondary data.

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REFERENCE

Kassahun Bedada. 2011. The Evolution of Ethiopian Government’s early Warning System

Lautze S., Aklilu Y., Roberts A.R., Young H., Kebede G. and Leaning J. 2003. Risk and
Vulnerability in Ethiopia: Learning from the Past, Responding to the Present, Preparing for
the Future a Report for the U.S. Agency for International Development

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