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South Africa’s retail sector faces significant headwinds, with Stats SA’s retail trade sales for May showing a sixth consecutive month of year-on-year decline. In May, retail trade sales dropped by 1.4% year-on-year, following a 1.8% year-on-year decline in April.
Retail trade sales also saw a 0.7% month-on-month decline from April to May. Seasonally adjusted retail trade sales also declined by 0.7% in the three months that ended May 2023 compared to the prior three months. Source: Stats SA The pressure on sales was seen across most of the major retail categories, except for ‘Clothing and Footwear Retail’,
which saw 10.3% growth year-on-year. John Loos, the property strategist at FNB Commerical Property, noted that even the less cyclical ‘General Dealers’ category saw a decline of 3.7%, which he attributed to rising interest rates, food price inflation and a weakening economy putting pressure on consumer disposable income.
“But it is in Home-related retail where the pressure is perhaps seen more, ‘Household furniture, appliances and equipment’ retail declining by a more severe 5.8%, and ‘Hardware, paint and glass’ retail sales by an even larger 8.7% (decline) year-on-year,” Loos said. “More significant drops in these two latter categories makes sense, given that many
home-related purchases and maintenance items are postponeable in tough financial times, such as the current time.” Source: Stats SA Tenant and landlord pain Loos said that this keeps the pressure on retail shopping centres and will likely sustain the recent slowdown in the retail centre trading densities seen in the MSCI Q1 numbers. All five
main shopping centre categories (Super Regional, Regional, Small Regional, Community and Neighbourhood) showed slowing trading density growth in the first quarter of 2023, following a post-lockdown recovery in 2021/22. Three of the five centre categories also saw real (inflation-adjusted) year-on-year declines in trading densities in Q1. “The
recent perception of the brokers is thus not way out of line with various data covering last year and early 2023, and more recently in the 2nd quarter of 2023, the brokers continued to perceive declining vacancy rates, albeit with diminishing conviction,” Loos previously said. TPN tenant data, correct as of Q1 2023, did not show any recent
degeneration in retail tenant rental payment performance, with the percentage of tenants in good standing at 73.34%.
However, Loos said that a further decline in real retail sales in Q2 – as the full impact of interest rate hikes and the economic slowdown is felt – will likely lead to tenant payment performance languishing in the second half of 2023. He said that this will likely keep the pressure up on base rental growth in the retail property sector, with landlord
‘pricing power’ weakening as tenants continue to struggle. The retail sector is also battling above-inflation municipal rates and tariff hikes, and many are having to seek expensive electricity alternatives as power supply reliability worsens. “First quarter MSCI data has shown recent slowing in year-on-year growth in base rental/square metre in all five
main centre size categories (Super Regional, Regional, Small Regional, Community and Neighbourhood), and when we adjust it to real terms, all five of the categories were already in year-on-year decline in the first quarter,” Loos said. “In short, the declining May 2023 real retail sales numbers point to a likely continuation of the recent weakening in
the retail property market on a national aggregated basis.” Read: Big new shopping malls coming to Joburg, Pretoria and Cape Town ' Stats SA (@StatsSA) July 19, 2023 It said that a consistent decrease in food prices and the influence of international inflation, which has gone down, had contributed to the CPI.Stats SA chief director, Patrick Kelly:
"We do see in some of the key developed economies [that] inflation is slowing down and our inflation tends to be largely driven by international factors rather than the local weather or the like and so that would also be encouraging." ISBN13 (SKU) 9781473768451 Title Statistics for Business and Economics Author D Anderson; J Cochran; E
Shoesmith; D Sweeney; J Freeman; J Camm; T Williams Country of Publication United Kingdom This book is in Open Review. I want your feedback to make the book better for you and other readers. To add your annotation, select some text and then click the on the pop-up menu. To see the annotations of others, click the button in the upper right hand
corner of the page Have you encountered the term “Business Analytics” in your life? If not, then you are probably wondering what it means.
If yes, then again, you are probably wondering what it means. It is a term that is used nowadays instead of such terms as “Operations Research” and “Management Science”. It is a discipline that covers a variety of qualitative and quantitative methods that can be used in practice for real life decisions. It uses methods and approaches from different
scientific areas, including statistics, forecasting, optimisation, operations management etc. These lecture notes are focused on the core of quantitative side of the discipline - statistics. While there are many books on statistics, the author failed to find one that would be focused on the application of statistics both for analysis and forecasting and would
rely on modern statistical approaches. These lecture notes relies heavily on the greybox package for R, which focuses on forecasting using regression models. In order to run examples from the lecture notes, you would need to install this package (Svetunkov, 2022): install.packages("greybox") A very important thing to note is that these lecture notes
do not use tidyverse packages. I like base R, and, to be honest, I am sure that tidyverse packages are great, but I have never needed them in my research. So, I will not use pipeline operators, tibble or tsibble objects and ggplot2.
It is assumed throughout the lecture notes that you can do all those nice tricks on your own if you want to. If you want to get in touch with me, there are lots of ways to do that: comments section on any page of my website, my Russian website, vk.com, Facebook, Linkedin, Twitter. You can also find me on ResearchGate, StackExchange and
StackOverflow, although I’m not really active there. Finally, I also have GitHub account. You can use the following to cite the online version of this book: Svetunkov, I. (2022) Statistics for Business Analytics: Lancaster, UK. openforecast.org/sba. Accessed on [current date]. If you use LaTeX, the following can be used instead: @MISC{SvetunkovSBA,
title = {Statistics for Business Analytics}, author = {Ivan Svetunkov}, howpublished = {Lecture notes. OpenForecast}, note = {(version: [current date])}, url = { , year = {2022} } These lecture notes are licensed under Creative Common License by-nc-sa 4.0, which means that you can share, copy, redistribute and remix the content of the lecture
notes for non-commercial purposes as long as you give appropriate credit to the author and provide the link to the original license. If you remix, transform, or build upon the material, you must distribute your contributions under the same CC-BY-NC-SA 4.0 license. See the explanation on the Creative Commons website.
