Baker 2016
Baker 2016
Joseph O Baker
East Tennessee State University, USA
Alexis L Booth
East Tennessee State University, USA
Abstract
Historically, religious frameworks—particularly conceptions of evil—have been tied to
attitudes about criminal behavior and its corresponding punishment, yet views of tran-
scendent evil have not been explored in the empirical literature on religion and punitive
ideology. We examine whether and how different aspects of religiosity shape punitive
attitudes, using a national sample of Americans. For both general punitiveness and views
of capital punishment, belief in the existence and power of transcendent religious evil
(e.g. Satan and hell) is strongly associated with greater punitiveness, while higher levels
of religious practice (service attendance, prayer, and reading sacred scriptures) reduces
punitiveness. The effects of other aspects of religiosity on punitiveness such as
self-identified fundamentalism, scriptural literalism, and images of God are rendered
spurious by accounting for perceptions of evil. We discuss these findings in light of
cultural and comparative approaches to penology, arguing for the inclusion of concep-
tions of the ‘‘transgressive’’ sacred in studies of, and theories about, penal populism.
Keywords
evil, penal populism, public opinion, punitive attitudes, religion, United States
Besides being less likely to regard death as an utterly cataclysmic punishment, the
Christian is also more likely to regard punishment in general as deserved. The doctrine
of free will—the ability of man to resist temptations to evil, which God will not permit
beyond man’s capacity to resist—is central to the Christian doctrine of salvation and
Corresponding author:
Joseph O Baker, Department of Sociology and Anthropology East Tennessee State University, Box 70644,
Johnson City, TN 37614, USA.
Email: bakerjo@etsu.edu
damnation, heaven and hell . . .. All this, as I say, is most un-European, and helps
explain why our people are more inclined to understand, as St. Paul did, that gov-
ernment carries the sword as ‘‘the minister of God,’’ to ‘‘execute wrath’’ upon the
evildoer. (Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia, 2002: 19–20, emphasis in original)
conceptual tools for examining how crime and punishment are derived ‘‘from an
originally religious context, as secular heir of sin and expiation’’ (Rosati, 2008: 141;
on the transgressive sacred in Durkheimian thought, see Pickering and Rosati,
2008; Riley, 2002, 2005; Rosati, 2005). Durkheim’s pupil Robert Hertz ([1922]
1994) directly addressed the nature of sin and expiation as communal social pro-
cesses. His work is insightful on this count, but we employ a notable extension of
sin and expiation as intimately related to crime and punishment. Hertz ([1922]
1994: 104) himself noted this affinity in saying, ‘‘Crime appears to have a very
close relationship with sin,’’ but also took pains to distinguish ‘‘sin’’ from related
concepts, for the purpose of producing a formal definition. Hertz notes that sin and
crime share family resemblances by virtue of being transgressions of idealized
moral orders; where they differ is in the respective community that is offended,
with sin a violation of sacred religious order and crime a behavioral violation of
civil order. Hertz ([1922] 1994: 107) argues that in order for expiation to achieve the
desired outcome of perceived justice, punishment must be administered on behalf
of the offended community, for ‘‘if the penalty does not take the form of a jurid-
ically administered punishment, the crime is not avenged.’’ Hertz’s distinction
between sin and crime is justified, so far as it goes, in societies with institutional
differentiation between church and state, and hence civil law and religious orders;
but, pace Hertz, we emphasize the similarities between the need for ritual expiation
on behalf of the moral order of the offended community in both instances. In effect,
this vantage emphasizes the continuing importance of the sacred—albeit in forms
of transgression, evil, and ritualized expiation—for understanding culturally
embedded expressions of punishment.
Parallel to this theoretical reorientation, there has also been a renewed emphasis
on the role religion can play in both the formation and institutional expression of
systems of punishment. Using a comparative approach, Savelsberg (1994b)
outlined a comprehensive theoretical model designed to account for variation in
punitive regimes across time, cultures, and institutions. While incorporating the
long-standing foci of criminology such as group conflict, labor market conditions,
levels of victimization, and functionalist concerns about the need for social control,
this model also emphasizes the roles played by social knowledge, institutional
arrangements, and culture (Savelsberg, 1999: 47). By incorporating culture to
better understand historical trajectories, the role of religion in institution building
(Gorski, 1993; Sørensen, 1997), as well as for shaping contemporary expressions
of punitive views (e.g. McConnell et al., 2001) and regimes becomes apparent
(see Savelsberg, 1994a).
For understanding the importance of religion in accounting for differential pun-
ishment regimes, its role in structuring perceived knowledge about criminality and
evil is paramount. To be clear, by this we mean how religion shapes public views
about crime and what should be done about it; in other words, knowledge in the
sociological rather than the formal or academic sense (e.g. Stark, [1958] 1991).
Cultural schemata about criminality accompany and act back on systems of pun-
ishment, such that harshly punitive regimes ideologically frame criminals as evil,
So I urge you, to speak out against those who would place the United States in a
position of military and moral inferiority. Y’know, I’ve always believed that old
Screwtape reserved his best efforts for those of you in the church. So in your discus-
sions of the nuclear freeze proposals, I urge you to beware the temptation of pride, the
temptation of blithely declaring yourselves above it all and label both sides equally at
fault, to ignore the facts of history and the aggressive impulses of an evil empire, to
simply call the arms race a giant misunderstanding, and thereby remove yourself from
the struggle between right and wrong, and good and evil.2
(Sigelman, 1977). When the General Social Survey (GSS) asked a question about
belief in the Devil in 1991, 65% of respondents said they absolutely or probably
believed. When the first wave of the Baylor Religion Survey (BRS) replicated the
question in 2005 there had been an increase in belief, such that approximately 58%
of the American public ‘‘absolutely’’ believed in Satan, and another 17%
‘‘probably’’ believed in his existence (Baker, 2008). According to Wave 6 of the
World Values Survey (2010–2014), 72% of Americans believe in hell, a population-
level of belief much higher than comparable post-industrial countries such as
Australia (34%), Denmark (9%), France (18%), Germany (20%), Great Britain
(28%), Italy (42%), Japan (33%), the Netherlands (12%), New Zealand (36%),
Spain (36%), and Sweden (15%).3
With regard to religion and punitive attitudes, we examine which aspects of
religiosity significantly predict variation in punitive attitudes. More specifically,
we assess how religious affiliation, practice, fundamentalism, images of God, and
beliefs about transcendent religious evil associate with punitive ideology. We are
particularly interested in the influence of views about transcendent evil on puni-
tiveness. Transcendent evil provides an ideal symbol of social pollution, invoking
the need for righteous retributive punishment (Alexander and Smith, 1993: 157).
Indeed, the notion of religious conceptions such as hell is quite explicitly inter-
twined with social schemas of just desserts and retributive justice for transgressions
of divine law. Using this theoretical backdrop, we bring attention to the role of
perceptions of transcendent religious evil for better understanding punitive ideol-
ogies among mass publics, using the United States as an example. In doing so we
seek to connect literatures on culture and punishment with empirical studies of
religion and public punitiveness.
decreases support among African Americans (Britt, 1998; Young, 1992; Young and
Thompson, 1995). Geographic location also appears to be a confounding factor for
the relationship between fundamentalism and punitive attitudes, as evidenced by
variation in the results of research focusing on Southern residents (Borg, 1997;
Evans and Adams, 2003), or examining residents of a particular state or muni-
cipality (e.g. Grasmick et al., 1993b; Leiber and Woodrick, 1997; Sandys and
McGarrell, 1997).
Examining decision-makers within the criminal justice system rather than the
public at large, Myers (1988) found that a fundamentalist religious orientation
among judges led to more frequent sentencing of African Americans and less ser-
ious offenders. Adding an important extension to individual level assessments, a
series of studies by Jacobs and Carmichael (2001, 2004; Jacobs et al., 2005) have
shown that higher rates of population level religious fundamentalism in the US
correlate with higher rates of incarceration and capital punishment.
To a lesser extent, scholars have considered the influence of the Catholic faith on
punitiveness, under the rubric of the ‘‘consistent life ethic.’’ This Catholic doctrine
promotes policies related to the sanctity of human life through, among many
issues, combined opposition to abortion and capital punishment. This ideology is
more often held among Catholics who attend mass frequently (Bjarnason and
Welch, 2004; Perl and McClintock, 2001) and hold the Church hierarchy in high
regard (Mulligan, 2006).
judgment of criminals. In particular, media portrayals of the war on drugs and the
war on terrorism have heavily employed criminal stereotyping (Jewkes, 2014).
Meanwhile, research on religious priming has demonstrated that belief in punitive
or evil supernatural agents initiates feelings of being watched. In this light, belief in
supernatural punishment is seen as prosocial, rewarding those who do good and
punishing those who do not (Norenzayan, 2013); however, this feeling also makes
individuals feel responsible for the punishment of others (McKay et al., 2011).
In conjunction with fear of supernatural evil, affect and emotion link religion to
punitiveness (Atran and Norenzayan, 2004). Punitive ideology is emotionally
costly, but also remains very common, a paradox that can be explained using
the concept of pollution (Posner, 1980). From the perspective of evolutionary
theory, supernatural evil is seen as a manifestation of emotions towards unex-
plained events, especially in relation to fear. The punishment for wrongdoing
must at least match the amount of fear instilled in the individual who heard,
read, witnessed, or knows about the crime. In essence, the practical costs or benefits
of retaliating against a wrongdoer are less important than the perception that
retribution is necessary to restore moral order.
Dependent variables
We examine two questions assessing punitive sentiments. The first of these asks
about support for capital punishment through level of agreement with the state-
ment ‘‘To what extent do you agree or disagree that the federal government should
abolish the death penalty?’’5 Answer choices are on a agree/disagree Likert scale.
Respondents who disagreed were coded as 1, while respondents who agreed or were
undecided were coded as 0, so that higher values reflect greater punitiveness.
Included in the same battery of questions as the previous item, respondents indi-
cated the extent to which they agreed or disagreed that the government should
‘‘punish criminals more harshly.’’ Respondents who agreed were coded as 1, while
those who disagreed or were undecided were coded as 0.6
Independent variables
Religious belief, behavior, and identity. For our primary independent variable, we con-
structed an index of belief in transcendent religious evil. This measure is comprised
of the following three items: belief in the existence of Satan (from [1] ‘‘absolutely
not’’ to [4] ‘‘absolutely’’); belief in the existence of hell (from [1] ‘‘absolutely not’’ to
[4] ‘‘absolutely’’); and belief that most evil in the world is caused by Satan (from [1]
‘‘strongly disagree’’ to [5] ‘‘strongly agree’’). A principal components factor ana-
lysis indicated the presence of a single component, with all measures loading above
.85 and an Eigenvalue over 2.5. Subsequent reliability analysis demonstrated high
internal consistency (Cronbach’s ¼ .88).
To measure religious tradition, we followed the ‘‘RELTRAD’’ classification
scheme of American religion, which divides respondents into seven religious trad-
itions based on denominational history and theology: black Protestant, evangelical
Protestant, mainline Protestant, Catholic, Jewish, other religion, and no religious
affiliation (Steensland et al., 2000). Evangelical Protestants are omitted as the ref-
erence category in multivariable analyses.7 We created a composite measure of
religious practice that includes three behaviors: frequency of service attendance,
prayer, and reading of religious scriptures. Answers to these three items do not
share the same response categories, so each was mean standardized before sum-
ming to create a composite measure of personal religiosity (Cronbach’s ¼ .82).
Self-identification as a fundamentalist was measured by asking respondents how
well they thought the term described their religious identity, with answer choices
ranging from (1) not at all to (4) very well. We also include a measure of stance
toward the Bible ranging from (1) the Bible is a ‘‘book of history and legends’’ to
(4) the Bible ‘‘should be taken literally, word-for-word on all subjects.’’
The BRS contains over 20 items about the disposition and nature of God.
Holding a punitive image of God was measured based on respondents’ levels of
agreement with an index of the items describing God as: (1) angered by human
sins, (2) angered by the respondent’s sins, (3) punishing, (4) severe, (5) wrathful,
and (6) as punishing sinners with terrible woes (Cronbach’s ¼ .85). For consonance
with previous work, we use six items for ‘‘loving God’’ which most closely corres-
pond with those used by Unnever and co-authors (2005, 2006). These items include
the belief that God is (1) concerned with the respondent’s personal well-being, (2) dir-
ectly involved in the respondent’s personal affairs, and could be described as
(3) forgiving, (4) friendly, (5) ever-present, and (6) loving (Cronbach’s ¼ .92).
Collectively, the wide array of religion metrics allows us to better isolate mechanisms
linking religion to punitive ideology, as well as ensuring that findings for a particular
measure are not merely a reflection of an unaccounted for aspect of religiosity.8
Analytic strategy
We first provide results examining the bivariate relationship between the religious
measures and each of the punitive attitudes examined. This is done with contingency
tables and independent samples t tests. Subsequent analyses use binary logistic
regression to predict punitive attitudes, while controlling for the variables detailed
above. Six models are presented, three per dependent variable. In each instance, the
first equation is the baseline model, including only sociodemographic controls and
political leaning. In the second, we include measures of religion used by previous
studies. The final models add our key variable of belief in transcendent religious evil.
We present variance-based fully standardized coefficients for all models, calcu-
lated using the formula and steps available in Menard (2010). This provides coef-
ficients analogous to standardized coefficients in ordinary least squares (OLS)
regression analysis, where the interpretation is that ‘‘a one standard deviation
increase in X is associated with a [coefficient] standard deviation difference or
change in logit(Y)’’ (Menard, 2011: 1417). All measures other than the religious
evil index were mean centered before being entered into the regression models, so
that the constant is a meaningful number in the first two models (logged predicted
probability at the mean of all predictors), and allowing for ease of computation of
the predicted probabilities by level of belief in religious evil in the final models. We
then present graphically the predicted probabilities for punitiveness across the
range of the religious evil index. To triangulate and supplement our findings
using BRS data, the appendix presents additional analyses using the cumulative
data file of the GSS.
Results
Bivariate analyses
Table 1 shows significant racial differences in support for the death penalty,
with Whites (78%) more supportive than African Americans (62%) or those
Table 1. Contingency tables for punitive ideology and categorical predictors (row
percentages)
Table 2. Means for ordinal and interval predictors by answers on punitive ideology questions
Yes No t Yes No t
criminals, the predictors with the largest t scores were political identity (t ¼ 14.4),
the religious evil index (t ¼ 11.3), biblical literalism (t ¼ 9.8), and education level
(t ¼ 8.0). Notably, all religion measures have a positive relationship to support for the
death penalty and desiring harsher criminal punishment in a bivariate context.
Sociodemographic
Female .009 .046 .045 .099* .077 .069
Blacka .117*** .093 .126 .064* .065 .023
Other racea .016 .019 .033 .074 .092 .096
Southerner .129** .109 .093 .015 .077 .018
Education .134** .071 .058 .261*** .217*** .218***
Income .052 .075 .060 .087 .059 .102
Age .124** .059 .071 .105* .141** .193***
Political ID .513*** .576*** .542*** .538*** .495*** .473***
RELTRADb
Black Protestant .026 .021 .002 .013
Mainline .276*** .265*** .051 .038
Catholic .270*** .256** .041 .011
Jewish .039 .012 .062 .029
Other religion .133* .124* .098 .092
No religion .302*** .303*** .092 .080
Religion
Religiosity .422*** .466*** .228** .334***
Fundamentalist .148 .115 .016 .016
Literalism .175 .088 .108 .026
Punitive God .163* .117 .068 .030
Loving God .022 .116 .150* .025
Religious evil .307** .494***
Model stats
Constant 1.348 1.514 .253 1.013 1.076 1.017
Nagelkerke R2 .188 .249 .259 .223 .251 .282
2 log 1438.115 962.708 935.398 1552.447 1102.397 1055.871
likelihood
N 1475 1088 1067 1470 1085 1048
Source: 2007 Baylor Religion Survey.
***p .001, **p .01, *p .05 (two-tailed tests).
a
White is reference category.
b
Evangelical is reference category.
Discussion
When we demand the repression of crime it is not because we are seeking a personal
vengeance, but rather vengeance for something sacred which we vaguely feel is
more or less outside and above us . . .. This is why penal law is not only of essentially
religious origin, but continues always to bear a certain stamp of religiosity. This
is because the acts that it punishes always appear as attacks upon something which
is transcendent, whether this is a being or a concept . . .. We are therefore wrong
to impugn this quasi-religious characteristic of expiation, making it some kind
of unnecessary, parasitical trait. On the contrary, it is an integrating element in pun-
ishment. (Durkheim, [1893] 1984: 56–57)
Beliefs about transcendent religious evil are an important consideration for under-
standing punitive ideology. For both measures of punitiveness examined, an index
of beliefs about the existence and influence of supernatural evil yielded strong
Acknowledgments
Wave II of the Baylor Religion Survey was funded by a grant from the Templeton founda-
tion. Dataset and modeling syntax for purposes of replication are available from the first
author by request. An early version of this study was presented at the 2008 Southwestern
Social Science Association meeting in Las Vegas, Nevada. Thanks to Ashley Palmer for help
researching the empirical literature about religiosity and punitiveness.
Notes
1. Although Durkheim’s definition of religion is famously functional (i.e. based on
community and ritual solidarity) rather than substantive (i.e. based on the super-
natural), representations of evil nonetheless remain an integral part of his conception
of religion by virtue of signifying the social boundaries of purity and pollution
(Durkheim, [1912] 1995: 415–417). We depart from Durkheim’s theory in the
sense that we are assessing monotheistic traditions, where there is greater duality
of representations of good and evil than in totemism or polytheism, with less transfer
of symbols between categories of sacred and polluted, especially in the direction
moving from ‘‘impure’’ to ‘‘pure’’ sacred; however, we share the view that the
categories are necessarily interdependent and that desecrations can rapidly transition
the pure sacred into the impure. In essence, we work from an understanding of
religion that not only views social boundaries and solidarity as a fundamental func-
tion of religion, but also emphasizes that conceptions of the supernatural, both good
and evil, warrant extensive consideration for their capacity to dramatize and signify
the boundaries religion creates and reinforces.
2. Quotation is based on our transcription of the speech rather than the printed version.
Full text and video of the speech is available at: http://millercenter.org/president/
speeches/speech-3409. ‘‘Screwtape’’ is a demonic character in C.S. Lewis’ The
Screwtape Letters.
3. Estimates for Denmark, France, Great Britain, and Italy are taken from the 1999
European Values Survey (Bréchon, 2009), as they were not included in Wave 6 of the
WVS. Supplemental analyses showed a strong correlation between population-levels
of belief in hell and imprisonment rates in post-industrial countries (r ¼ .62). This
correlation is actually stronger for linear analyses after removing the United States,
which is an outlier on both metrics (r ¼ .74). A more extensive assessment of popula-
tion-level belief in religious evil and imprisonment rates awaits elaboration.
4. Sociodemographic results of the 2007 BRS compare favorably to data available in
the 2008 GSS and 2008 American Community Survey conducted by the Census
Bureau. Tabled results of these comparisons and all other footnoted supplemental
analyses are available upon request from the first author.
5. The phrasing of this question potentially confuses issues of capital punishment and a
position on the interplay between federal or state rights with regard to systems of
punishment. The GSS question modeled in the Appendix is a less ambiguous metric
of support for or opposition to capital punishment.
6. We assessed multiple alternative strategies to measuring and modeling the BRS
metrics for capital punishment and general punitiveness, including 1) binary logistic
models with the undecided respondents excluded rather than combined with the non-
punitive category; 2) cumulative logistic models with three categories of disagree,
undecided, and agree; and 3) ordinary least squares models predicting the full five
category variables. We calculated standardized coefficients for all models. The rank
order of predictors was the same for the death penalty outcome regardless of measure-
ment and model. For the general punishment outcome, the rank order of political
identity and the index of religious evil switch places for the OLS and cumulative
logistic models. In the binary logistic model excluding ‘‘undecided’’ respondents, the
religious evil index remained the strongest predictor. It seems political identity is a
better predictor across gradations of the Likert scale for generalized punishment,
while religious evil is a more efficient predictor of binary punitive/non-punitive
outcomes.
7. We conducted supplemental analyses without the religious tradition variable that
tested for an interaction between race and the religious evil index. Because African
Americans have higher levels of belief in transcendent religious evil (Baker, 2008),
but lower levels of punitiveness, we hypothesized there might be an important
moderating effect of race on the religious evil and punitiveness relationship.
There is not a significant interaction for predicting general punitiveness; however,
there was a significant interaction for predicting support for the death penalty, such
that the religious evil index did not significantly correlate with greater support for
capital punishment among African Americans ( ¼ .026), while there was a strong
relationship between belief in religious evil and support for capital punishment
among whites ( ¼ .132).
8. The high number of inter-correlated religion measures introduces the possibility of
multicollinearity. In an OLS model parallel to Model 3 predicting support for the
death penalty, we assessed Variance Inflation Factors for the religion variables. The
variable with the highest variance inflation factor (VIF) score was the religious evil
index (2.8), followed by loving God index (2.4), biblical literalism (2.4), religiosity
(2.0), self-identification as fundamentalist (1.3), and the angry God index (1.1).
Since the variable most affected by collinearity is our variable of interest, the
statistical tests are effectively biased against our primary hypothesis.
9. Further analyses show that atheists have the lowest levels of punitiveness among
the non-religious compared to agnostics and nonaffiliated believers (see Baker and
Smith, 2009), as well as among all specific religious traditions. Unfortunately many
atheists end up missing in the regression analyses because they skipped the image of
God questions, which were effectively unanswerable for theistic disbelievers. Still it
deserves note that atheists are less punitive than other types of Americans, even
though this is obscured in the multivariate models.
10. Supplemental analyses that included the religiosity index and only one other reli-
gious control in multivariate models—rotating the religion measures one at a
time—showed that the religious evil index resulted in the largest increase in the
absolute value of the negative coefficient for the religious practice index. In other
words, the suppressor effect from a single religiosity measure picking up the coun-
tervailing influences of different aspects of religion is best revealed by the religious
evil index.
11. We also tested alternate measurement strategies for the religious evil index by
adding biblical literalism to the measure, as well as adding biblical literalism and
self-identification as a fundamentalist, and a final alternate index that included
belief in demons and demon possession. These alternate measurement strategies
did not improve the predictive power of the model. The religious evil index pre-
sented here was the best predictor.
12. After removing other religious controls to reduce multicollinearity, a model including
an interaction effect for religiosity and belief in religious evil was significant for
predicting support for the death penalty, such that the negative effects of religiosity
on punitiveness are attenuated for those with higher levels of belief in religious evil; or,
interpreted the other way, the positive effect of belief in religious evil on punitiveness
is attenuated for those with higher levels of religious practice. In short, the highest
levels of support for the death penalty occur among those with high levels of belief in
religious evil, but low levels of religious practice. The interaction term was non-sig-
nificant in a similar model predicting desire for harsher punishment of criminals.
13. The percentage of respondents to the GSS answering that local courts were ‘‘not harsh
enough’’ remained above 80% between 1973 and 1996, then stayed above 70%
between 1998 and 2004. The percentage has continued to fall, with the lowest propor-
tion occurring in the most recent (2014) wave, where 63% of respondents reported that
local courts should be harsher. The year 2014 also had the highest percentage saying
that courts were ‘‘too harsh’’ (16%), although this sentiment remained relatively rare.
14. Using the 2008 wave, the only one to include measures for both belief in hell and
punishment of sinners, the belief in hell measure was significant for predicting
support for capital punishment, and the punish sinners measure was significant
for both outcomes. There were negligible differences in results using only the
1988 wave compared to the 2006–2010 waves for the punishment of sinners
metric, in spite of the relatively long gap between surveys.
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Alexis L Booth recently graduated with a B.S. (with honors) in clinical psychology.
Her research interests focus on forensic psychology and law. Specifically, she is
interested in psychopathology and mental illness within offender populations, risk
assessments and the corresponding treatment methods employed for such condi-
tions, and evidence based practices for offender rehabilitation and the reduction of
recidivism rates.
Appendix
We conducted supplemental analyses with the cumulative dataset of the GSS. In
these models, belief in hell (only asked on the 1991, 1998, and 2008 waves) was a
significant predictor of attitudes about capital punishment, but not harsher local
courts, where biblical literalism remained the best metric of punitive theology.
Because this measure of belief in transcendent evil is highly limited, we instead
present here the results of analyses that examined whether respondents’ beliefs
about ‘‘punishing sinners’’ translated into more punitive attitudes toward crim-
inals. This provides a direct test of the idea that theological punitiveness acts as
a cultural and cognitive mechanism linking religious and punitive ideologies.
Table A1 shows the results of a binary logistic regression model predicting
support for the death penalty, with answers of (0) no and (1) yes, and a cumulative
logistic regression predicting whether respondents thought that ‘‘courts in the area’’
Table A1. Binary and cumulative logistic regressions of punitive ideology (fully standardized
coefficients)
Sociodemographic
Gender .059*** .056***
Blacka .165*** .128***
Other racea .088*** .085***
Southerner .024 .009
Education .001 .028
Income .062*** .013
Age .028 .008
Political identity .198*** .079***
Mother’s education .019 .010
Father’s education .014 .053***
Hours worked .019 .052***
Children .031 .054**
(continued)
Religion
Attendance .135*** .011
Fundamentalist .077*** .027
Literalism .010 .044*
Punish sinners .109*** .136***
Model stats
Constant .956 .865
Constant 2 – .503
Nagelkerke R2 .158 .081
2 log likelihood 5182.211 6911.576
N 4794 4755
Source: 1988 and 2006–2010 waves of the General Social Survey
***p .001, **p .01, *p .05 (two-tailed tests).
a
White is reference category.
b
Binary logistic regression.
c
Cumulative logistic regression.
dealt with criminals (0) ‘‘too harshly,’’ (1) ‘‘about right,’’ or (2) ‘‘not harshly
enough.’’ We included controls for gender, race, region, education, income level,
age, political identity, parents’ education levels, hours worked per week, having
children, self-identification as a fundamentalist, frequency of religious service
attendance, and views of the Bible. The predictor of interest was a question that
asked for level of agreement with the statement that ‘‘Those who violate God’s
rules must be punished.’’ Answers were coded from (1) strongly disagree to
(4) strongly agree. This measure was only included in the 1988 and 2006–2010
waves, so those are the survey years analyzed.14
Fully standardized coefficients are presented (again, see Menard, 2011).
Mirroring the results from the BRS, opinion about punishing violators of divine
law was a strong predictor of support for capital punishment, ranking fourth
in strength of influence ( ¼ .109; p .001), behind political identity ( ¼ .198;
p .001), the difference between White and Black Americans ( ¼ .165; p .001),
and the negative effect of religious service attendance ( ¼ .135; p .001). For the
generalized harsher courts outcome, attitude about punishing sinners was the
strongest predictor ( ¼ .136; p .001), with the difference between White and
Black respondents second strongest ( ¼ .128; p .001). Overall, theological
view of punishment is a strong predictor of attitudes toward criminal punishment,
and serves as a primary link between religion and punitive ideology.