TO: INTERESTED PARTIES
FROM: CHRIS WILSON AND TREVOR K. SMITH, PH.D.
SUBJECT: CURTIS’ PRIMARY WEAKNESS
DATE: DECEMBER 4, 2023
A new poll by WPA Intelligence, conducted on behalf of Brad Wilson for U.S. Senate, found that
John Curtis is not positioned well to win the Republican primary for U.S. Senate. He has no
ideological base and is vulnerable on issues such as refusing to crack down on illegal immigration
and siding with Nancy Pelosi against President Trump’s Russia sanctions.
Republican Primary Voters Don’t View John Curtis as a Strong Conservative
Most Republican primary voters do not view John Curtis Now thinking about specifically John Curtis, do you think of him as a
as a strong conservative as only 14% say he is very conservative, a moderate, or a liberal in his political beliefs?
conservative.
Additionally, only 14% of Strong Republicans and
18% of Traditional Republicans consider Curtis to
be very conservative.
In his congressional district, more voters view him
as moderate/liberal (26%) than very conservative
(14%).
Very Somewhat Moderate/
Conservative Conservative Liberal
Strong
14% 23% 22%
Republican
Traditional
18% 29% 24%
Republicans
CD-3 14% 36% 26%
John Curtis is Vulnerable to Contrast Messaging
John Curtis suffers a nine-point drop on the ballot after voters hear about some of his positions in
Congress.
Key Utah GOP groups abandon Curtis after messaging. For Ballot
example, Curtis’ support with very conservative voters drops Change
to only 22-points and 20-points with Republicans who Overall -9%
identify as Christian Conservatives. Very Conservative -22%
Strong
-14%
Republican
Christian
-20%
Conservative GOP
Latter-Day Saint -10%
© 2023 WPA Intelligence
Do not copy or distribute without permission
The strongest messages:
John Curtis refuses to crack down on illegal immigration. Curtis slammed President Trump’s
border wall, calling it quote pent up racism end quote, and he supported legislation that
would provide mass amnesty to two million illegal immigrants.
John Curtis sided with Nancy Pelosi and radical House Democrats in a symbolic vote
disapproving of President Trump’s Russian sanctions policy.
Recent congressional filings revealed how John Curtis traded stocks that stood to benefit
from the COVID 19 health crisis. Curtis may already be a millionaire, but that didn’t stop him
from using this crisis, and his position in Congress, to get even richer.
Methodology
WPA Intelligence conducted a study of Republican primary voters in Utah. WPA selected a stratified sample of
registered voters from the Utah voter file using Proportional Probability Sampling (PPS).
The sample for this survey was stratified based on geography, age, cell phones and gender. This methodology
allows us to avoid post-survey “weighting” which can reduce the reliability of survey results. Respondents were
contacted by phone via a live telephone operator interview November 13-15, 2023, 74% cell phones. The study
has a sample size of n=404 Republican primary voters with a margin of error of ±4.9% in 95 out of 100 cases.
About WPA Intelligence
WPA Intelligence is a leading provider of survey research, predictive analytics and application-based data
management technology. WPAi clients win at a rate that exceeds the industry standard by double-digits.
WPAi has been the data team behind the RNC voter scores program, the polling/data team for the 2016 Cruz
for President effort, the providers of data strategy for the Las Vegas Raiders relocation and, most recently, the
team behind the analytics and polling for Glenn Youngkin’s 2021 Virginia Gubernatorial campaign.
WPAi has been nationally recognized for providing cutting-edge intelligence to help our clients win. The
American Association of Political Consultants (AAPC) has awarded WPAi with eleven Pollies including Best in
Show. In 2022, CEO Chris Wilson and Principal Amanda Iovino were awarded Pollster of the Year for our polling
and analytics work on the Youngkin for Governor Campaign. We have also been recognized by Campaigns &
Elections’ Reed Awards for the Best Use of Data Analytics/Machine Learning, Best New Research Technique,
Best Application of AI Technology to Optimize Targeting, and Best Data Analytics Solutions.
The cornerstone of WPAi is our personnel. Our methodological approaches are dictated by advanced statistical
guidelines as determined by our PhD-led team of researchers and data scientists. Our team has consistently
been recognized as some of the best in the industry: CEO Chris Wilson was named Campaigns & Elections’
Technology Leader of the Year; Amanda Iovino, Principal, Matt Knee, Vice President and Director of Analytics,
Trevor K. Smith, Ph.D., Chief Research Officer, and Conor Maguire, Principal and Managing Director, each have
been recognized amongst the American Association of Political Consultants (AAPC)’s prestigious 40 Under 40
list.
Confidential Page 2 of 2 12/4/2023
