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The document examines the relationship between monetary policy, measured by interest rates, money supply (M1), and economic indicators like real GDP over a 20-year period from 2003-2023. The data shows that as interest rates decrease, real GDP tends to increase over time, indicating an inverse correlation. A regression model could be developed to further analyze how variations in the money supply impact economic indicators while controlling for fiscal policy.

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0% found this document useful (0 votes)
33 views2 pages

Paper Topic

The document examines the relationship between monetary policy, measured by interest rates, money supply (M1), and economic indicators like real GDP over a 20-year period from 2003-2023. The data shows that as interest rates decrease, real GDP tends to increase over time, indicating an inverse correlation. A regression model could be developed to further analyze how variations in the money supply impact economic indicators while controlling for fiscal policy.

Uploaded by

brian mochez01
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Does money have real effect on the economy if you control for fiscal policy?

The data Shown below on Economic Indicator Real GDP from the website of the Federal

Reserve Bank of St. Louis and Monetary policy; Interest rates data drawn from Federal

Reserve Bank of St. Louis website. The data consist of monthly data for 20 years that is from

the year 2003 to 2023. The overall relationship that can be seen from the data below is that

when interest rates tend to decrease real GDP over time increases this implying an inverse

correlation. I may also incorporate Money Supply (M1), to study how variations in the money

supply affect economic indicators while controlling for fiscal policy. This can also be

assessed by developing a regression model to model the relationship between Economic

indicators and monetary policies.

REAL GDP (Billion $)


25000.000

20000.000

15000.000

10000.000

5000.000

0.000
2009-09-01
2003-01-01
2003-11-01
2004-09-01
2005-07-01
2006-05-01
2007-03-01
2008-01-01
2008-11-01

2010-07-01
2011-05-01
2012-03-01
2013-01-01
2013-11-01
2014-09-01
2015-07-01
2016-05-01
2017-03-01
2018-01-01
2018-11-01
2019-09-01
2020-07-01
2021-05-01
2022-03-01
2023-01-01
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2

-0.4
-0.2
2003-01-01
2003-12-01
2004-11-01
2005-10-01
2006-09-01
2007-08-01
2008-07-01
2009-06-01
2010-05-01
2011-04-01
2012-03-01

Data source: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/


2013-02-01
2014-01-01
2014-12-01
Interest rate (%)

2015-11-01
2016-10-01
2017-09-01
2018-08-01
2019-07-01
2020-06-01
2021-05-01
2022-04-01
2023-03-01

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