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Performance Task 2 (SALVADOR)

The document contains forecasts for demand using 3, 4, and 5 month moving averages. It also contains a forecast for November sales using a weighted average based on data from prior months. Finally, it estimates demand for the next period using linear regression analysis on historical demand data.

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Princess Aleia Salvador
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26 views3 pages

Performance Task 2 (SALVADOR)

The document contains forecasts for demand using 3, 4, and 5 month moving averages. It also contains a forecast for November sales using a weighted average based on data from prior months. Finally, it estimates demand for the next period using linear regression analysis on historical demand data.

Uploaded by

Princess Aleia Salvador
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as DOCX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Performance Task 2

1. From the data above, using a 3-month, 4-month, and 5-month moving average, forecast
the demand for the next period.

3 Month

F(April) = D(March) + D(February) + D(January)


3
F(April) = 68 + 57 + 33 = 158 = 52.67
3 3
F(April) = 52.67

4 Month

F(May) = D(April) + D(March) + D(February) + D(January)


4
F(May) = 78 + 68 + 57 + 33 = 236 = 59
4 4
F(May) = 59
5 Month

F(June) = D(May) + D(April) + D(March) + D(February) + D(January)


5
F(June) = 69 + 78 + 68 + 57 + 33 = 305 = 61
5 5
F(June) = 61

2. From the data above, determine the sales forecast for November using the data below
with the following assigned weights: 40% for October, 30% for August, 20% for
September, and 10% in August, consider the monthly demand for good X of ABC Firm.

WF(November) = (0.40) 118 + (0.30) 110 + (0.20) 94 + (0.10) 82

WF(November) = 47.2 + 33 + 18.8 + 8.2 = 107.2

WF(November) = 107.2
2. From the data above, estimate the demand for the next period using regression.

Month Period (t) Demand (X) Xt


January 1 33 33 1
February 2 57 114 4
March 3 68 204 9
April 4 78 312 16
May 5 69 345 25
June 6 77 462 36
July 7 82 574 49
August 8 94 752 64
September 9 110 990 81
October 10 118 1,180 100
TOTAL 55 786 4,966 385

X = 786 = 78.6
10

t = 55 = 5.5
10

b = 4,966 – 10 (78.6) (5.5)


385 – 10 (5.5)²
b = 4,966 – 4,323 = 643
385 – 10 (30.25) 82.5
b = 7.79

a = 78.66 – (7.79) (5.5) = 42.85


a = 78.66 – 42.85 = 35.81

Hence Ft = 35.81 + 7.79t

F11 = 35.81 + 7.79 (11)


F11 = 35.81 + 85.69 = 121.5
F11 = 121.5

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