LESSON OBJECTIVES

At the end of this lesson, you should be able to:

understand the concept of demography and its effects to global populations

2. understand the Malthusian theory and its criticisms; and

3. analyze the demographic transition theory and its criticisms.

Demography - scientific study of the determinants and

consequences of human population trends
Demographic transition - refers to the transition from high birth
and death rates to low birth and death rates as a country develops
from a pre-industrial to an industrialized economic system
INTRODUCTION

Demography
Demography is the scientific study of the determinants and consequences of human
population trends. By the beginning of the 21st century, world population reached 6
billion. Most growth has occurred in the past 200 years•
As can be gleaned from Figure 1, a massive increase of billions of people
occurred no less than 200 years ago. This is the global demographic transiti0nl
brought by momentous changes, reshaping the economic and demographic life
cycles of individuals and restructuring populations. Clearly, before the transiti011'
the growth of world population is close to stationary, depicting that life is short'
births were many, growth is slow, and the population is young.

Since 1800, global population size has already increased by a factor Of six and by
2100 will have risen by a factor of 10. There will then be 50 times as many elderly but
only five times as many children; thus, the ratio of elders to children will have risen
by a factor of 10. The length of life, which has already more than doubled, will have
tripled, while births per woman will have dropped from six to

222 A Course Module for The Contemporary World

The Malthusian Theory
Thomas Malthus (1766-1834) was the first person to draw widespread
attention to the two components of natural increase—births and deaths
(fertility and mortality). Malthus formulated an essay titled "Essay on the
Principle of Population," initially published in 1789, wherein he postulated that
population tended to grow geometrically,
while the means of subsistence grew only
arithmetically (Figure 2). Thomas Malthus
also argued that the difference between
geometric and arithmetic growth created a
tension between the team between the
growth of population and that of means of
subsistence—this gap could not persist
indefinitely.
Also, in the said essay, it was
mentioned that population was held in
Time equilibrium with the slowly growing
Arithmetic and Geometric Growth economy. Faster population growth Figure
Curves
2. Illustration of Malthusian theory. would
depress wages, causing mortality
Unit VI GLOBAL POPULATION AND MOBILITY 223
to rise due to famine, war or disease—in short, misery. Depressed wages also
cause postponement of marriage, resulting in prostitution and

Since population could potentially grow more rapidly than the it was
always held in check by misery and vice, which were therefore the inevitable
human lot. Economic progress could help only temporarily because population
could soon grow to its new equilibrium level, where misery and vice would
again hold it in check. only through moral restraint—that is, the chaste
postponement of marriage—did Malthus believe that humanity might avoid
this fate, and he thought this an unlikely outcome (Lee, 2003).
Population Explosion
Contrary to what Malthus predicted, mortality has not risen to curb
world population growth. As mentioned, the world population boomed
up to neara billion in 1800 and reached 6 billion by the end of the 20th
century. Apparently, Malthus did not recognize the force of the Industrial
Revolution, which produced exponential growth in the means of subsistence.
pemographic Transition puring the first half of the 20th century, demographers
conceived the notion of the demographic transition. The Demographic Transition
Framework
illustrates population growth in terms of discrepancies and changes in two crude
vital rates—mortality and fertility.
stripped Off the essentials, demographic transition refers to the transition from
high birth and death rates to low birth and death rates as a country develops from
a pre-industrial to an industrialized economic system.

Modern
Stability

Primitive
Stability

Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4

50 40

30

20

10
2
0Low growth ' High growth High growth Low growth
u — Crude birth rate per 1000 Crude death rate per 1000

Figure 3. Population growth across four stages and levels of growth.

The stages, as provided in Figure 3, are described as follows:

Stage 1: Preindustrial Society - high and unstable birth and death rates,
Population growth rate slow, importance of children, low life expectancy
Reasons for the changes in birth rate
l. Children are needed for farming.
2. They die at an early age due to illnesses.

NO family planning and conception/giving birth is encouraged by religion and

society.
Reasons for the changes in death rate
1,

Disease
2.
Famine
Poor medical knowledge

Unit GLOBAL POPULATION AND MOBILITY 225

Stage 2: Early Industrial Society - high birth rates, falling death rate, high population
growth
Reasons for the changes in birth rate
1. Children are needed for farming.
2. They die at an early age due to illnesses.
3. No family planning and conception/giving birth is encouraged by religion and
society.
Reasons for the changes in death rate

1. Improvements in medical care

2. Water

3. Supply and sanitation

4. Fewer children die
Stage 3: Late Industrial Society - low death rate, falling birth rate, high
population growth
Reasons for the changes in birth rate
1. Improved medical care and diet
2. Fewer children are needed for work Reasons for the changes in
the death rate
1. Improvements in medical care
2. Water
3. Supply and sanitation
4. Fewer children die
Stage 4: Post Industrial Society - low birth and death rates, low populati0n
growth
Reasons for the changes in birth rate
Family planning
2. Good health
3. Later marriages
4. status of women

A Course Module for The Contemporary World

Reasonsfor the changes in death rate
 Good health
care
Figure 4. Illustration of fertility rates jn industrialized countries as compared to
developing countries and the world.

In summary, based on the demographic transition model, it can be argued that because
the industrialized countries underwent a dramatic change that rest-llted to lower rates of
population growth, the developing countries can emulate these for their rates of
population growth to become lower.

.COMMUNICATE.
 Work with a pair. Choose a country (except Philippines) and study the stage vhe
the country you chose is currently placed. Assess its birth rates, death ates• a
population growth. Provide the possible reasons why it is located
unit VI GLOBAL POPULATION AND MOBILITY 227
on said stage and why their scores on the three are in that manner. Place your answers
in the table below:

Report
the
output in
class.

POSSIBLE Criticisms of
the
Demographic
Transition
Theory
The
demographic
transition
COUNTRY: theory is only
BIRTH RATE: based on
DEATH RATE: Western
PRODUCTION GROWTH: societies
(Europe, America, Japan). It is not inevitable that there will be a fall in fertility rates in less
developed countries. The length of time that the countries will traverse the stages, if they
do, is unpredictable. Times have changed since the developed world went through
demographic transition.

Fertility Transition Theory

This theory states that fertility is declining in the less developed countries

at a rate which exceeds the rate of decline that was experienced in developed countries.
t seems to be related directly to the extent to which modern contraceptives are employed. In
modern times, information about contraceptives is widespread due to mass media.
Stripped off the major points, the fertility transition theory asserts that while
economic development can create a climate conducive to reductions in fertility, it is a
change in cultural attitude about large families and a willingness to use contraception that
matters, aside from the presence and availability of contraception itself.
228 A Course Module for The Contemporary World
 still, opposition to birth control
and family planning
are aplenty. The

Report your position and output in class.

SUMMARY
Demography is a study of determinants and consequences of population trends.
One important phase in world history is demographic transition wherein the
Malthusian theory had been modified to cater several development stages of
various countries. This demographic transition theory is not free from any criticisms
at all as the same does not apply to all countries and due to other theories
debunking it.

ASSESSMENT
Identify one essential learning that you obtained from this lesson.
2. Reflect on how this learning will enable you to help the following:

a. Your country

Demographic

History

Background'
b. Your community
Your school
Your family