Climate Impacts on Society (Displacement and migration)

Climate change refers to long-term shifts in temperatures and weather patterns. Such shifts can be
natural, due to changes in the sun’s activity or large volcanic eruptions. But since the 1800s, human
activities have been the main driver of climate change, primarily due to the burning of fossil fuels like
coal, oil and gas. Burning fossil fuels generates greenhouse gas emissions that act like a blanket
wrapped around the Earth, trapping the sun’s heat and raising temperatures. The main greenhouse
gases that are causing climate change include carbon dioxide and methane. These come from using
gasoline for driving a car or coal for heating a building, for example. Clearing land and cutting down
forests can also release carbon dioxide. As the effects of climate change intensify, it is important
to understand the underlying factors that may mitigate or exacerbate migration, and develop
strategies to both proactively and humanely manage these impacts and be considered in the
context of any geographic or environmental factors that would contribute disproportionately to
the destabilization of economically or politically important regions. Climate change is imposing
intolerable extremes on many parts of the world, threatening the livelihoods of tens of
millions of people. The worsening problem has stoked the debate over how to classify and
protect international climate migrants under international law.

Climate change is an existential crisis for humanity. It is a clear and present danger. Wake-up
call is there in front of our eyes on a daily basis but mostly we are either blind or deaf to this self-
imposed assured destruction at an unprecedented rate. And this is a reality. There have been
agreements and accords like the Paris Agreement and COPs, the 28th edition of which is going
to be held in the UAE soon. Talks and more talks are witnessed at the international fora with
ever louder voices, but mere voices they are which is quite visible in the lack of real outcomes,
where hypocrisy and double speak are the buzzwords. Climate forums are unable to yield the
desired results since the structural issues and the gaps are not genuinely addressed. Targets
remain moving and the leaders keep chasing the revolving doors.
During its G20 presidency, fighting against climate change remains a priority as Prime Minister
Narendra Modi speaks of ‘Vasudhaiva Kutumbakam’ — One World, one Family and One
future’. He also worked for ‘One Earth One Grid. ‘There is no Plan or Planet B at least not for
now. India’s plans for a World Solar Bank that will mobilise $1 trillion of investments in solar
projects over the coming decade has been widely appreciated. Likewise, at the Climate action
Summit in 2019, India and Sweden launched the Leadership Group for Industry Transition.
Antonio Guterres, UN Secretary General, during his visit to India had profusely complimented
India for the steps being taken domestically and internationally to alleviate, adapt and mitigate
the impact of climate change. India has been on the forefront of the quest for right energy mix
with increasing share and focus of the renewal and clean energy and sustainable future. Guterres
elucidated, “I am inspired by the Indian government’s decision to raise its target of renewable
energy capacity from the initial 2015 goal of 175 gigawatts to 500 gigawatts by 2030. I have no
doubt this decision will attract more and more international investors, such as the sovereign
wealth funds and pension funds like the Caisse de dépôt et placement du Québec or the Abu
Dhabi Investment Authority.”

Why is climate migration on the rise?

Climate migration occurs when people leave their homes due to extreme weather events,
including floods, heat waves, droughts, and wildfires, as well as slower-moving climate
challenges such as rising seas and intensifying water stress. This form of migration is
increasing because the world has not been able to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and halt
global average temperature rise, which leads to more climate disasters. Most climate
migration is projected to occur within a country’s borders (internal), but cross-border
migration will also rise. In some instances, extremes combined with other factors, such as
natural subsidence and oil and gas activities, are displacing entire communities, forcing
them to find refuge in different parts of their country or journey across borders. Some
researchers project that drought-driven migration in particular could triple this century if
international efforts fail to address the growing climate crisis.
What regions will be hit hardest?

Latin America, South Asia, and sub-Saharan Africa are among the regions most
vulnerable to the effects of climate change and could see large increases in both internal
and cross-border migration. as a result. More than half of the developing world’s
population lives in these three regions, and many live in vulnerable areas, some of which are
already experiencing climate-driven migration crises. The World Bank estimates that these
regions could altogether produce 143 million internal climate migrants by 2050. There are
no comparable projections for cross-border migration, but natural disasters and slower-
moving climate consequences are linked to increased international migration, particularly
for those who live near a border. Thirty years of environmental diplomacy have created a
global network of international institutions. The UN Environment Programme, the UN
Commission on Sustainable Development, and the Global Environment Facility are accompanied
by over 200 environmental conventions and many other institutions-such as the World Bank or
the World Trade Organization-whose decisions affect environmental performance. Yet despite
this proliferation of organizations, global environmental quality is still deteriorating.

Climate change related-migration, as used in this report, is an umbrella term describing the
spectrum of climate change’s relationship with human mobility—including the circumstances of
“trapped populations” for whom migration is not an option despite exposure to climate-related
threats. Even in the United States, one extreme event can result in a relatively high degree of
permanent relocation of low-income populations exposed to chronic and worsening conditions
over time. Extreme weather events9 and conflict are the top two drivers of forced displacement
globally, together responsible for the annual movement of nearly 30 million people from their
homes. There is a strong correlation between countries and regions most vulnerable to climate
change and those that are fragile and/or experiencing conflict or violence. Climate-related
impacts may further stress vulnerable communities, increasing the risk of conflict and
displacement in the absence of effective prevention efforts, and vice versa. Climate-related
impacts also pose an increased risk to marginalized communities displaced by conflict related to
the impacts of climate change.
This risk is more acute in regions with weak governance and dispute resolution infrastructure,
and in growing peri-urban areas where many migrants are heading. Climate change can cause
or exacerbate resource scarcity, which may drive conflict directly as well as induce migration of
populations in vulnerable situations attempting to secure safety or livelihoods elsewhere.11
Moreover, changes to biodiversity have strong intersections with climate change that also can
affect migration, and threaten food and economic security.12 The subsequent movement of large
numbers of people, by force or by choice, brings new groups into contact with one another,
potentially shifting power balances, causing further resource scarcity, or igniting tensions
between previously separated groups. 13 Where climate-related migrations occur within or near
population centers, or in locations important for political or economic stability, such as within
many nations’ coastal zones, the destabilizing forces associated with climate change may result
in outsized affects overall.

Migration is an important form of adaptation to the impacts of climate change and in some cases,
an essential response to climate threats to livelihoods and wellbeing; therefore it requires careful
management to ensure it is safe, orderly, and humane. It is critical to mitigate risks to the human
security of migrants and receiving communities, such as risks to food and water security, access
to necessary resources, and conflict at both the local and intercommunal levels. Large-scale
migrations in response to destabilizing climate events within areas of particular economic or
political importance can result in a disproportionate impact to a nation’s condition overall. This
will likely be the case for the world’s coastal populations where sea level rise is predicted to
displace a disproportionate number of people.28 Enhancing a nation’s ability to predict sea level
rise at the local scale is one mechanism to address potentially large-scale climate migrations
before they occur and may influence a nation’s climate policy writ large.29 Addressing the
climatic stressors and resultant second-order impacts that influence populations to move,
permanently or seasonally, is important for preventing displacement in the first place, as well as
supporting relocation when necessary.
The consequences of climate change on migration present humanity with an unprecedented
challenge. The numbers of storms, droughts and floods have increased threefold over the last 30
years with devastating affects on vulnerable communities, particularly in the developing world.
In 2008, 20 million persons have been displaced by extreme weather events, compared to 4.6
million internally displaced by conflict and violence over the same period. How many people
will be affected by climate change by 2050? Forecasts vary from 25 million to 1 billion people
with a figure of 200 million being the most widely cited estimate. As the world’s leading
migration agency, the International Organization for Migration (IOM) endeavours to stay abreast
of trends and issues that impact the more than 212 million migrants worldwide. Since the early
1990s, IOM has been active in the area of migration, climate change and the environment, and
has carried out programmes in more than 40 countries from the Pacific Islands, to Latin America
and on the Asian and African continents. In many of these areas, we have assisted those affected
by hurricanes, severe flooding and drought.