MELI 1 de Noviembre
MELI 1 de Noviembre
MercadoLibre Inc. (MELI): First Take: Record EBIT margin puts scale
and efficiency on display, adds flexibility to invest; Buy
MELI’s 3Q23 results exceeded even the most optimistic expectations, with a record Irma Sgarz
+1(212)357-3770 | irma.sgarz@gs.com
EBIT margin of 18.2% (+720bp yoy), putting absolute EBIT +26% ahead of our Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC
above-consensus estimate. The beat was driven to a large extent by gross margin, Felipe Rached
+55(11)3371-4587 |
where ongoing efficiencies/leverage in customer service and collection, as well as felipe.rached@gs.com
Goldman Sachs do Brasil CTVM S.A.
lower losses from MPOS devices and 1P contributed. Profitability gains materialized
Gustavo Fratini
across different products and geos, and go well beyond mix effects, illustrating the +55(11)3371-0825 |
gustavo.fratini@gs.com
Goldman Sachs do Brasil CTVM S.A.
strong inherent operating leverage and drive for efficiency at the company.
In a context where investors have voiced some concerns about the sustainability of
strong GMV growth into 2024, we were particularly encouraged by the incremental
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acceleration in active buyers (to +18% yoy) and active users across the ecosystem
(+36% from +27% in 1H23). We also expect investors to welcome the consistently
strong growth in Mexico (+34% yoy), in spite of the entry of new CB competitor
Temu. The large margin beat will likely create some renewed discussion around what
levels near-term profitability could reach; in any event, we believe it also underscores
our positive view on the company’s competitive strength and P&L/balance sheet
flexibility to continue to invest behind its leadership.
While investors conversations had an overall constructive tone going into the quarter,
and we believe investors generally thought some positive earnings surprise vs.
consensus could be possible, we believe the actual beat far exceeded such
expectations. We expect a positive share reaction and reiterate our Buy rating with a
US$2,150 12-month price target.
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Main highlights from 3Q23 results and conference call
Several senior executives joined the earnings call this time, with CEO Marcos
Galperin, CFO Martin de los Santos, Head of Commerce Ariel Szarfsztejn and Head
of Fintech Osvaldo Gimenez, all contributing with commentary.
Goldman Sachs does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result,
investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this
report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC
certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to
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analysts with FINRA in the U.S.
Goldman Sachs MercadoLibre Inc. (MELI)
about the opportunities AI could create in driving both efficiencies and innovation
(e.g. in customer service, fraud prevention, code writing, product listings, ads, etc).
n Early results from loyalty program MELI+ are positive. While the company’s
revamped loyalty program MELI+ was only launched in late August, management
expressed its confidence with early results. The company did not disclose specific
numbers, but management noted that users were responding well to the MELI
Delivery Day offering, which enables the company to lower its free shipping
threshold (to c.US$6 in Brazil/ US$8 in Mexico) while also driving shipping cost
efficiencies. Management called out that it would continue to invest behind creating
mind share and teaching users about the different ways to benefit from the program
(across marketplace and fintech).
n Cross-border in Mexico. MELI management recognized that PDD’s cross-border
platform Temu has been investing heavily behind app downloads and social media
presence sine entering Mexico in May. However, it also highlighted its own
continued GMV momentum (+34% yoy FXN, maintaining the pace of 2Q23), driven
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by strong growth in active buyers, which in turn resulted in strong item growth
(+38% yoy). Management noted that it believes Temu’s offering mostly overlaps
with other cross-border competitors, and simultaneously highlighted how well its
own CB GMV was growing. It also pointed to strong growth in Home & Industry and
Apparel & Sports, categories that we understand are also strong on certain CD
sites. Finally, management noted that growth held up across all categories and price
points and highlighted a step-up in 1P with a successful Apple iPhone launch.
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MELI’s ecosystem to generate operational leverage across verticals.
n Gross margin expanded by c.+295bp yoy, mainly driven by gains from lower POS
device sales (as the company is shifting upmarket in Brazil), better 1P margins on a
broadly stable penetration within GMV, efficiency in collection fees and scaling of
customer experience. In our view, certain portions of this gain are structural going
forward, but we also note that an accelerated ramp-up of the 1P build-out could
negatively impact gross margin from a mix effect (in itself, we believe 1P margins
are improving, but still negative).
n Provisioning expenses dropped by c.-12pp yoy as a % of lending revenues
(c.-335bp yoy as a % of total revenues) mainly due to the better asset quality
(particularly in Brazil), and the dilutive effect of other businesses growing ahead of
credit. Growth in provisions was lower than we had projected, in part due to a
slightly smaller step-up in the loan portfolio.
n Product and technology development as % of total revenues increased by
c.+20bp yoy. In absolute terms, this marks a +42% increase yoy (vs. +40% in
2Q23) and a +8% expansion qoq (vs -3% in 2Q23). This is in line with our
1 November 2023 2
Goldman Sachs MercadoLibre Inc. (MELI)
expectation (see here) that another qoq decline was unlikely as MELI continues to
invest behind certain growth initiatives (e.g. ads, loyalty, AI). We believe this line will
continue to see limited near-term dilution, as MELI continues to add developers and
invest behind product and technology.
n Sales & marketing ex-provisioning dropped by c.-65bp yoy as a % of total
revenues. This +32% yoy / +15% qoq increase reflects the company’s investments
behind growth initiatives like MELI+, although part of this is offset by efficiencies on
marketing spend and strong metrics around organic/unpaid traffic.
n The G&A ratio also declined by c.-45bp yoy, as MELI continues to focus on
generating operational leverage in this line, which has been a goal outlined by
management for the past few quarters. In our view, this gain should also be more
structural in nature.
Argentinian income had been translated using the blue-chip rate, the company’s 9M23
EBIT would have been US$1,252mn (-21% or US$331mn lower than the actually
reported number). Considering that FX losses related to Argentina amounted to
US$386mn in the period, this would have been more than accounted for at the
bottom-line, implying that the impact to earnings vs. the reported figure would have
been broadly neutral to slightly positive.
Gross loan portfolio grew +5% qoq rate to US$3.4bn, driven by consumer loans in
Mexico and Brazil and the credit card book in Brazil. This implies a +US$152mn qoq loan
book expansion (+5% qoq), compared to +US$201mn in 2Q23 (+7% qoq). NPLs
improved substantially, with the Over-90 day ratio dropping to 20.3% (from 25.1%
in 2Q23), in line with our expectations. Early NPLs also remained well under control
(c.-250bp yoy to 10.6%, albeit +70bp qoq), as MELI continues to take a relatively more
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cautious approach on originations, but with some natural deterioration given the tilt
towards consumer loans and credit card.
Mexico was once again a positive highlight in terms of GMV growth, growing at a
solid +34% yoy (same pace as in 2Q23), exclusively driven by the number of items sold
(+38% yoy, the highest level since 1Q21). According to management, GMV growth in
Mexico continues to be driven predominantly by the increase in new buyers, which
supports our view that MELI has plenty of room to grow its active user base and further
increase engagement (see here). Management called out that the cross-border vertical
continues to grow well ahead of overall GMV in the country.
Brazil GMV accelerated to +28% yoy, up from +25% in 2Q23. The incremental step
up was mainly driven by faster item growth (+27% yoy vs. +20% in 2Q23). While the
main peers are yet to report, we believe MELI will have significantly widened the gap
vs. the competition: we project MGLU and BHIA’s online GMV to grow by +6% and -5%
yoy in 3Q23, respectively. MELI’s 1P business in Brazil continues to grow at a solid pace
(+84% yoy in USD terms); management noted that this has been enabled by material
and structural improvements in profitability, and has been driving share gains in the
1 November 2023 3
Goldman Sachs MercadoLibre Inc. (MELI)
Argentina printed at +147% yoy, still mainly driven by inflation, although there was
also a relevant acceleration in the number of items sold (+13% yoy vs. +1% in 2Q23
and +3% in 1Q23), likely a reflection of a pull-forward in demand in the context of macro
uncertainty, as management highlighted in their remarks.
Other countries (8% of GMV) posted a slight increase for the first time since 1Q22,
of +3% yoy in local currency terms (vs. -11% yoy in 2Q23), exclusively driven by an
increase in the number of items sold (+9% yoy vs. +6% in 2Q23).
Commerce take rate increased by +200bp yoy for the 3P operation, a +80bp qoq
increase. This was driven by higher seller final fees (c.+90bp yoy) and shipping (c.+70bp
yoy), as well as higher ad revenues (c.+40bp yoy). As we noted in 2Q23 earnings (link),
in addition to the commission increase implemented as of mid-January 2023, MELI had
announced additional changes in June that we expected to have a fully-loaded, and
therefore more notable, impact on the take-rate print this quarter (for context seller final
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Overall TPV expanded by +121% yoy in FX-neutral terms, with off-platform TPV
growing at a solid +145% yoy (vs. GSe at +101%). Digital account TPV posted another
impressive print (+189% in FX neutral terms), driven by principality in Argentina,
strategic transportation alliances in Mexico and Chile and overall improvements in
product offering. Acquiring TPV was also solid (+82% yoy), with management noting
that the POS TPV of Mexico and Chile combined surpassed that of Argentina for the
second consecutive quarter.
Highlights from KPIs of the fintech business. Wallet payers rose to 28.5mn (from
26.1mn last quarter). Unique fintech users reached 48.8mn, adding an all-time high of
+3.5mn users qoq, with management pointing to the remunerated account in both
Argentina and Brazil as drivers of increased engagement with Mercado Pago.
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Fintech take rate ex-lending suffered slight pressure, printing at 2.0% (-7bp qoq and
-9bp yoy). This was mainly driven by slightly lower transactional fees, likely driven by the
strong expansion in digital account TPV (+189% yoy), part of which still comes at low
monetization rates.
Adjusted effective tax rate was relatively high. The income tax has been positively
impacted by a one-off tax due reversal in Mexico of US$141mn. This was slightly offset
by a US$76mn tax charge in Argentina related to an FX gain on dollar-denominated
assets in the country; based on our conversation with management, we understand that
this tax charge tends to happen on a recurring basis, but on a lower magnitude. If we
were to exclude both of these effects, income tax would have printed at US$237mn,
implying an effective tax rate of 45%. In this case, adjusted net income would have
printed at US$294mn.
1 November 2023 4
Goldman Sachs MercadoLibre Inc. (MELI)
Product and tech. development expenses (278) (396) (395) +42% +0%
as % of net sales 10.3% 10.5% 10.6% +20bp -7bp
Sales and marketing expenses (excl. bad debt) (333) (441) (455) +32% -3%
as % of net sales 12.4% 11.7% 12.2% -65bp -47bp
Bad debt provision (288) (277) (287) -4% -3%
as % of net sales 10.7% 7.4% 7.7% -334bp -32bp
as % of lending revenues 53.1% 41.2% 44.1% -1192bp -286bp
General and administrative (153) (196) (194) +28% +1%
as % of net sales 5.7% 5.2% 5.2% -47bp +2bp
Operational (US$mn) 3Q22A 3Q23A 3Q23E 3Q23E 3Q23 vs. 3Q23 vs.
Cons. 3Q22 3Q23E
Commerce take rate (net revenue / GMV) 17.0% 18.7% 18.9% 18.7% +173bp -15bp
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TPV from Marketplace (on-platform) 8,351 11,973 n.a. +43% n.a.
Fintech take rate (net revenue / TPV) 3.8% 3.5% 3.6% 3.5% -35bp -14bp
Fintech take rate (excl. credit) 2.1% 2.0% 2.1% -9bp -11bp
MercadoCredito (US$mn) 3Q22A 3Q23A 3Q23E 3Q23E 3Q23 vs. 3Q23 vs.
Cons. 3Q22 3Q23E
Total past dues (1-360 days) 1,026 1,048 n.a. +2% n.a.
growth yoy (%) n.a. +2% n.a. #VALUE! n.a.
Implied APR (lending revenues % of average net loan portfolio) 124.0% 114.2% n.a. -10p.p n.a.
Total past dues (1-360 days, as % of gross portfolio) 37.0% 30.9% n.a. -6p.p n.a.
Early NPLs (1-90 days) 13.1% 10.6% n.a. -250bp n.a.
NPLs (90-360 days) 23.9% 20.3% 20.0% -4p.p n.a.
Balance sheet (US$mn) 3Q22A 3Q23A 3Q23E 3Q23 vs. 3Q23 vs.
3Q22 3Q23E
Accounts receivable (days of GMV) 1 1 1 +0 +0
Credit Card Receivables (days of GMV) 27 27 27 +0 +0
Accounts payable (days of GMV) 12 15 15 +3 +0
Net debt (net cash), incl. leases 1,882 (251) 699 -113% -136%
Capex (106) (126) (205) +19% -39%
1 November 2023 5
Goldman Sachs MercadoLibre Inc. (MELI)
Our 12-month price target for MELI is $2,150. Our valuation is based on an EV/EBIT
target multiple of 35.0X applied to our 2027E EBIT estimate and discounted back to put
it 12m forward.
Key downside risks include: (i) FX volatility negatively impacting the translation of
results, especially in the event of a potential devaluation of the Argentine Peso; (ii)
weaker-than-expected results from the lending operation, driven by weaker credit
quality, resulting in higher provisioning expenses and/or a deterioration in origination; (iii)
greater competition in the payment space, resulting in higher customer acquisition costs
and potentially lower growth and returns; and (iv) increased competition from incumbent
and new competitors in the core marketplace business.
Buy GS Forecast
12/22 12/23E 12/24E 12/25E
Market cap: $65.4bn Revenue ($ mn) 10,537.0 14,122.2 16,584.2 19,975.0
Enterprise value: $62.9bn EBITDA ($ mn) 1,437.0 2,481.9 2,979.6 3,755.9
3m ADTV: $585.9mn EBIT ($ mn) 1,034.0 1,946.3 2,336.5 3,010.7
Argentina EPS ($) 9.58 22.03 32.34 43.46
Latin America Retail Consumer P/E (X) 96.7 59.0 40.2 29.9
M&A Rank: 3 EV/EBITDA (X) 31.7 25.2 20.7 16.0
FCF yield (%) 5.3 4.1 1.6 2.5
Dividend yield (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Net debt/EBITDA (X) 2.1 0.9 0.6 0.3
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Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Research estimates, FactSet. Price as of 1 Nov 2023 close.
1 November 2023 6
Goldman Sachs MercadoLibre Inc. (MELI)
Disclosure Appendix
Reg AC
We, Irma Sgarz, Felipe Rached and Gustavo Fratini, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect our personal views
about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is or will be, directly or
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Unless otherwise stated, the individuals listed on the cover page of this report are analysts in Goldman Sachs’ Global Investment Research division.
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Disclosures
The rating(s) for MercadoLibre Inc. is/are relative to the other companies in its/their coverage universe: Americanas S.A, Arezzo & Co., CBD
(Pão de Açúcar), Cencosud, El Puerto De Liverpool, Falabella, Grupo Carrefour Brasil, Grupo Casas Bahia SA, Grupo SBF S.A., Grupo Soma, Lojas
Renner, MPM Corporeos S.A., Magazine Luiza, MercadoLibre Inc., Mobly S.A., Natura, Petz, Raia Drogasil, Sendas Distribuidora SA, Soriana, Wal-Mart
de Mexico
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Goldman Sachs has received compensation for investment banking services in the past 12 months: MercadoLibre Inc. ($1,300.01)
Goldman Sachs expects to receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking services in the next 3 months: MercadoLibre Inc.
($1,300.01)
Goldman Sachs had an investment banking services client relationship during the past 12 months with: MercadoLibre Inc. ($1,300.01)
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($1,300.01)
Goldman Sachs had a non-securities services client relationship during the past 12 months with: MercadoLibre Inc. ($1,300.01)
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1 November 2023 7
Goldman Sachs MercadoLibre Inc. (MELI)
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a24329c4043d11dfb98c0014c24035ec
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1 November 2023 8
Goldman Sachs MercadoLibre Inc. (MELI)
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1 November 2023 9
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