Stock Market
What is a Stock or Equity?
• A stock is a certificate representing partial ownership in a
company.
• It is one of the alternative sources of finance for the company
• Stocks are issued by the companies that need long-term
funds.
Importance of Stock Market
• A leading indicator of business cycle
• The capital market serves as a reliable guide to the performance
and financial position of companies, and thereby promotes
efficiency.
• A near continuous valuation of companies as reflected in share
prices, and the implied possibility of mergers and takeovers are
conducive to financial discipline, and more efficient allocation of
capital.
• Stock market promotes growth through the creation of liquidity.
Importance of Stock Market Cont…
• Facilitates risk diversification through international
integration
• Stock markets attract foreign investment; they act as conduits
for foreign savings
• Inflow of foreign equity through stock market helps to avoid
excessive reliance on debt, and saves firms from undue
exposure to the debt-servicing burden
Classification of Stock Market
• There are two types of market segments in the stock market
• Primary market or new issue market (NIM)
• NIM supplies fresh or additional capital to the companies
• Secondary market (SM).
• The securities already issued or floated on the NIM are traded on the SM
The SM does not play any direct role in making funds available to the
corporates
• it helps to encourage investors to invest in industrial securities by making
them liquid, i.e., by providing facilities for continuous, regular, and ready
buying and selling of those securities.
Classification of Securities in Stock Market
• Ordinary shares
• Ordinary share gives the shareholder voting rights
• Dividend payment is not mandatory
• Preference shares
• Fixed dividend payments
• No voting rights
• Has a priority right to be repaid if the company becomes insolvent
• There are different types of preference shares
Types of Preference Shares
• Cumulative and non-cumulative
• On cumulative preference shares, if dividend is skipped in any period/periods, it has
to be paid subsequently
• Convertible and non-convertible
• Convertible preference shares can be converted into ordinary shares on terms and
conditions fixed at the time of issue of such shares
• Redeemable and non-redeemable
• A redeemable preference share matures in a fixed period of time and for all practical
purposes it is regarded as a debt security like a debenture
• Participating and non-participating
• Participating preference shareholders can earn a higher dividend than the fixed one if
the company makes good profits
Approaches to Equity Valuation
• Discounted Cash Flow Techniques
• Present Value of Dividends
• Present Value of Operating Cash Flow: (Operating Cash Flows = Net income + Noncash
Expenses (Usually Depreciation Expense) + Changes in Working Capital)
• Present Value of Free Cash Flow: Cash flow from operations - capital expenditure + net
debt issued
• Relative Valuation Techniques
• Price/Earnings Ratio (PE)
• Price/Cash flow ratio (P/CF)
• Price/Book Value Ratio (P/BV)
• Price/Sales Ratio (P/S)
Discounted Cash Flow Models
• The value of a share of common stock is the present value of
all future cash flows
• Inputs required for DCF Models
• Cash flow
• Growth rate of cash flow: Retention rate * Return on Equity
• Discount Rate: Cost of equity, Weighted Average of Cost of Capital
• Time period
Cost of Equity and Cost of Capital
• Cost of Equity
• Risk Free Rate
• Market Risk Premium
• Market risk (Beta)
• Cost of Capital
• Weighted average of cost of equity and cost of debt
Dividend Discount Models
• The value of a share of common stock is the present value of
all future dividends
&
'! '" '# '$
P! = $ ! = "+ # + ………………+ %() $
#$% %() %() %()
P! = Current price
D" = The expected dividend at time t.
R= The investor’s required rate of return on a security
Gordon Growth Model
1. Dividends grow at a constant rate
2. The constant growth rate will continue for an infinite period
3. The required rate of return (R) is greater than the infinite growth rate
(g)
D"
P! =
$−&
Gordon Growth Model (Derivation)
%
&! &" &# &$
*! = , $'( ! = $'( "
+ $'( #
+ ………………+ $'( $
---------(1)
"#$
If the growth rate ‘g’ is constant, then
& %($'*)" & %($'*)# & %($'*)$
*! = + + ………………+
$'( " $'( # $'( $
Taking the common term/! , we can rewrite it as
($'*)" ($'*)# ($'*)$
*! =/! $'( "+ $'( # + ………………+ $'( $
------------------------- (2)
$'(
Multiply both sides in the above equation by $'* , we can have
$'( ($'*)" ($'*)# ($'*)$
*! $'*
=/! 0 + $'( "+ $'( # + ………………+ $'( $
-----------(3)
• Subtract the equation (2) from equation (3)
$'( ($'*)$
*! $'*
− 0 =/! 0 − $'( $
----------------------------------------------------------------- 4)
($'*)$
Assume that R>g; when 2 → ∞ then $'( $ will be closely equal to zero and the right hand side of equation (4) will be left
with/! . Hence, simplifying this equation
*! 5 − 6 = /! 0 + 6
/$
*! =
5−6
Example
Suppose PQR Ltd. Paid a dividend of Rs.4.00 per share for the last
year. The dividends are expected to grow at the rate of 6% per year
thereafter. If the required rate is 15%, then what will be the value
per share?
Answer:
D! = Rs.4.00, G= 6%, R=15%
D" = 4.00*(1+0.06) = Rs.4.24
#! '.)'
Hence, P! = $%&
= !."*%!.!+
= Rs.47.11
Two Stage Growth Model
• It assumes two different growth rates in two different periods i.e. the
supernormal growth rate of dividend in the beginning and a stable rate
after that for indefinite period.
• Value of the stock: Present value of the stock during extra ordinary
growth phase + present value of terminal price
Two Stage Growth Model Cont…
• If the growth rate and dividend pay out ratio do not change in
the first n years then the formula can be written as:
Example: Valuation using two stage dividend discount
model
Example:
Operating Cash Flow
Where:
t =n Vj = value of firm j
OCFt
Vj = å
t =1 (1 + WACC j ) t
n = number of periods assumed to be infinite
OCFt = the firms operating free cash flow in period t
WACC = firm j’s weighted average cost of capital
Where:
OCF1 OCF1=operating free cash flow in period 1
Vj =
WACC j - g OCF gOCF = long-term constant growth of
operating free cash flow
Free Cash Flow to Equity
&
FCF"
P! = ' "
1+R
#$%
Where:
Vj = Value of the stock of firm j
n = number of periods assumed to be infinite
FCFt = the firm’s free cash flow in period t
R = the cost of equity
Relative Valuation Techniques
• Value can be determined by comparing to similar stocks
based on relative ratios
• Relevant variables include earnings, cash flow, book value,
and sales
• The most popular relative valuation technique is based on
price to earnings
Earnings Multiplier Model
• This values the stock based on expected annual earnings
• The price earnings (P/E) ratio, or
Earnings Multiplier :
Current Market Price / Earnings per Share
Dividend Discount Model and PE Ratio
D1
Pi =
k-g
Pi D1 / E1
Dividing both sides by expected earnings (E1)
=
E1 k-g
Thus, the P/E ratio is determined by
1. Expected dividend payout ratio
2. Required rate of return on the stock (k)
3. Expected growth rate of dividends (g)
Example:
Dividend payout = 50%
Required return = 15%
Expected growth = 10%
D/E = 0.50; k = 0.15; g=0.10
P/E = 0.50 / 0.15-0.10 = 10
A small change in either or both k or g will have a large impact on
the multiplier
D/E = 0.50; k=0.16; g=0.10, P/E = 8.33
D/E = 0.50; k=0.15; g=0.11, P/E = 12.5
D/E = 0.50; k=0.14; g=0.11, P/E =16.66
Price to Cash Flow Ratio
• Companies can manipulate earnings, and cash-flow is less prone to manipulation
• Cash-flow is important for fundamental valuation and in credit analysis
Pt
P / CFi =
Where:
CFt +1
• P/CFj = the price/cash flow ratio for firm j
• Pt = the price of the stock in period t
• CFt+1 = expected cash low per share for firm j
The Price-Book Value Ratio
• Shows the growth opportunity of the company
• Study shows an inverse relationship between P/B and stock
return
Pt
P / BV j =
BVt +1
Where:
P/BVj = the price/book value for firm j
Pt = the end of year stock price for firm j
BVt+1 = the estimated end of year book value per share for firm
j
The Price-Sales Ratio
• Match the stock price with recent annual sales, or future
sales
• This ratio varies by industry
• Relative comparisons using P/S ratio should be between firms
in similar industries
Secondary Equity Market
• Secondary equity market is where securities are traded after
being initially offered to the public in the primary market
and/or being listed on the stock exchange
• The securities are traded, cleared, and settled within the
regulatory framework prescribed by the exchanges and the
SEBI
• The secondary market operates through two mediums,
namely, the over-the-counter (OTC) market and the
exchange-traded market.
Stock Exchanges in India
• Currently, there are 20 organized stock exchanges exist in India.
Particularly, there are two prominent stock exchanges in India i.e.
Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) and National Stock Exchange of India
(NSE).
• The BSE was established in 1875 and it is the Asia’s first Stock Exchange
and one of India’s leading exchange groups.
• BSE’s popular equity index - the S&P BSE SENSEX - is India's most widely
tracked stock market benchmark index.
• NSE was promoted by leading Financial Institutions at the behest of the
Government of India and was incorporated in November 1992
• Most popular index in NSEI has been CNX Nifty.
Stock Market Indices
• Objectives
• To judge the performance of individual investor
• To measure the market rates of return, and (iii) to predict the market
movements
• Factors affecting the construction of stock market index
• Sample, it should be representative of total population
• Base year, it should be a normal year
• Weighting criteria, equally weighted series, price weighted series, market
value weighted series and free float market capitalization weighted series
Free-float market capitalization
• It takes into consideration only those shares issued by the
company that are readily available for trading in the market
• It generally excludes promoters' holding, government
holding, strategic holding and other locked-in shares that will
not come to the market for trading in the normal course.
• In other words, the market capitalization of each company in
a Free-float index is reduced to the extent of its readily
available shares in the market.
Construction of Index
Stock Quantity Base Year Price Current Price Free Float factor
A 60,000 30 45 0.55
B 20,000 25 80 0.75
C 90,000 65 85 0.95
Equally weighted series---
1/3 (45/30 + 80/ 25 + 85 / 65) = 2.0033
Price weighted series---
(45 + 80 + 85)/ )(30 + 25 + 65) = 1.75
Market value weighted series = (60 000*45 + 20 000*80 + 90 000* 85) / (60 000*30 + 20 000*25 + 90 000* 65) =
1.46
Free Float Market Value Weighted Series= (60 000*45*0.55 + 20 000*80*0.75 + 90 000* 85*0.95) / (60
000*30*0.55 + 20 000*25*0.75 + 90 000* 65*0.95) =1.43
If the base value of the index has been taken as 100, then in the current year the value of the index using different
weighting series will be as follows: (i) Equally Weighted: 200.33, (ii) Price Weighted: 175, (iii) Market value
weighted: 146 and Free float market value weighted: 143.
Features of Major Stock Indices in India and
Abroad
Indices Sample Base Year Base Value Weighting Criteria
S&P BSE 30 1978-79 100 Value weighted from the beginning,
SENSEX but since September 1, 2003 it uses
free float methodology
CNX NIFTY 50 November 3, 1000 Value weighted from the beginning,
1995 but since June 26, 2009 it uses free
float methodology
DJIJ 30 1938 100 Free float
S&P 500 1941-42 10 Value
Composite
NYSE 2818 1965 50 Value
Stock Price and Stock Index Quotations
Market Microstructure in Indian Stock Market
• Listing of Securities
• Security Groupings
• Trading System
• Margin Trading
• Short Selling
• Settlement Cycle
• Index-Based Market-Wide Circuit Breaker
Listing of Securities
• Listing means the formal admission of a security to the trading
platform of a stock exchange.
• The listing of securities on the domestic stock exchanges is
governed by the provisions in the Companies Act, 2013, the
Securities Contracts (Regulation) Act, 1956 (SC(R)A), the Securities
Contracts (Regulation) Rules (SC(R)R), 1957, and the
circulars/guidelines issued by the Central Government and SEBI as
well as rules, by-laws and regulations of the particular stock
exchange, and the listing agreement entered into by the issuer
and the stock exchange.
Security Groupings
• BSE has classified the scrips in the Equity Segment into 'A', 'B', 'T' and 'Z'
groups on certain qualitative and quantitative parameters
• Criteria for A shares are as follows:
• Company must have been listed for minimum period of 3 months.
• Companies traded for minimum 98% of the trading days in past 3 months shall be
considered eligible.
• Companies with minimum non-promoter holding of 10% as per the shareholding
pattern of most recent quarter shall be considered eligible. The criteria of
minimum 10% non-promoter holding shall not be applicable to public sector
undertakings (PSUs).
• The weightage of 75% and 25% shall be given to ranking on three-monthly
average market capitalisation and traded turnover respectively to arrive at the
final ranks.
Security Groupings Cont…
• The "T" Group represents scrips which are settled on a trade-to-trade
basis as a surveillance measure.
• The 'Z' group was introduced by BSE in July 1999 and includes
companies which have failed to comply with its listing requirements
and/or have failed to resolve investor complaints and/or have not made
the required arrangements with both the depositories, viz., Central
Depository Services (I) Ltd. (CDSL) and National Securities Depository
Ltd. (NSDL) for dematerialization of their securities.
• All companies not included in group ‘A’ or ‘Z’ shall constitute group ‘B’.
In addition to these groups, scrips may be classified in group ‘T’ as part
of the surveillance measure
Security Groupings Cont…
• NSE has classified the stocks into three categories on the
basis of their liquidity and impact cost.
• The Stocks which have traded at least 80% of the days for the
previous six months shall constitute the Group I and Group II.
• Out of the scrips identified above, the scrips having mean
impact cost of less than or equal to 1% are categorized under
Group I and the scrips where the impact cost is more than 1,
are categorized under Group II. The remaining stocks are
classified into Group III.
Mean Impact Cost
• Impact cost is calculated by taking four snapshots in a day
from the order book in the past six months. These four
snapshots are randomly chosen from within four fixed ten-
minutes windows spread through the day.
• The impact cost is the percentage price movement caused by
an order size of Rs.1 Lakh from the average of the best bid
and offer price in the order book snapshot.
• The impact cost is calculated for both, the buy and the sell
side in each order book snapshot
Trading System
• Order driven market and Quote driven market
• The order driven market displays all of the bids and asks,
while the quote driven market focuses only on the bids and
asks of market makers
• In an order driven market, there is no guarantee of order
execution - but, in the quote driven market, there is that
guarantee.
• In India the stock exchanges adopt the order driven system.
Types of Orders
• Limit Price/Order – An order that allows the price to be
specified while entering the order into the system.
• Market Price/Order – An order to buy or sell securities at the
best price obtainable at the time of entering the order.
• Stop Loss (SL) Price/Order – The one that allows the Trading
Member to place an order which gets activated only when
the market price of the relevant security reaches or crosses a
threshold price. Until then the order does not enter the
market
Margin Trading
• For purchasing the stocks on margin, investors must open an account,
which is called as margin account with their broker and put up some
cash as collateral.
• The initial deposit is referred to as the initial margin. The investors are
required to satisfy a maintenance margin, which is the minimum
amount of the margin that they must maintain as a percentage of
stocks’ value (owner’s equity).
• If the stock’s value declines, the investor’s equity value also declines, so
that the investor’s equity may no longer represent the minimum
percentage of the stock’s value required by the broker. In this case the
investor receives a margin call from the broker, which means that the
investor is required to provide more collateral (i.e. more cash or stocks)
or sell the stocks.
Margin Concepts
Short Selling
• It is defined as selling a stock which the seller does not own at the
time of trade. This is done when the price of the security is
expected to fall and sellers believe that they could be bought back
later at a lower price.
• As the sale is at a higher price and they are bought at a lower
price later, a profit can be made.
• Short selling is generally executed by first borrowing securities
from someone who has the securities, selling them, later buying
them back from the market and returning them to the lender.
Settlement Cycle
• The National Securities Clearing Corporation Ltd. (NSCCL) clears and settles trades as
per the well-defined settlement cycles
• All the securities are being traded and settled under T+2 rolling settlement.
• The NSCCL notifies the relevant trade details to clearing members/custodians on the
trade day (T), which are affirmed on T+1 to NSCCL.
• Based on it, NSCCL nets the positions of counterparties to determine their obligations.
A clearing member has to pay-in/pay-out funds and/or securities. The obligations are
netted for a member across all securities to determine his fund obligations and he has
to either pay or receive funds.
• Members' pay-in/pay-out obligations are determined latest by T+1 and are forwarded
to them on the same day, so that they can settle their obligations on T+2.
• The securities/funds are paid-in/paid-out on T+2 day to the members' clients' and the
settlement is complete in 2 days from the end of the trading day.
Index-Based Market-Wide Circuit Breaker
