The Pharma Innovation Journal 2021; SP-10(8): 1152-1157

ISSN (E): 2277- 7695

ISSN (P): 2349-8242
NAAS Rating: 5.23 Stability analysis of Indian grapes exports
TPI 2021; SP-10(8): 1152-1157
© 2021 TPI
www.thepharmajournal.com
Received: 22-06-2021
Mohammadullah, Dr. C Murthy, Dr. Sunita Johri and Vennila M
Accepted: 24-07-2021
Abstract
Mohammadullah Grape (Vitis vinifera) is one of the most delicious refreshing and nourishing fruits. It is universally
M.B.A (Agribusiness), consumed as table fruit and ripen grapes are easily digestible. The study was based on the time series,
Department of Agribusiness secondary data collected from different reliable resources and data were collected for the period of 2007-
Management, UAS, Dharwad, 08 to 2019-20. The area of grapes in the year 2007-08 was 68 thousand hectares has rose to 140 thousand
Karnataka, India
hectares in the year 2019-20. Production which was 1735 thousand Mt in the year 2007-08 was increased
Dr. C Murthy
to 3125 thousand Mt in the year 2019-20. Five major countries which are importing grapes from India are
Professor of Agricultural Netherland, Russia, United Kingdom, Bangladesh and Germany. Russia, United Kingdom, Bangladesh
Marketing, Department of and Germany were found to be stable markets with good amount of retention of market share. The
Agribusiness management, country Netherland retained 36 per cent of its previous market share of which it lost to Russia with 9 per
College of Agriculture, cent, 3 per cent to Germany and 51 per cent to other minor importing countries during the study period.
University of Agricultural Russia and Germany were found to be more stable market in terms of value for the grapes that are
Sciences, Dharwad, Karnataka, exported during the study period. Netherland, United Kingdom, Bangladesh and other minor importing
India countries were found to be moderately stable. Government need to meet the demands as per the
specifications of the country to retain the country to be loyal for the imports of grapes.
Dr. Sunita Johri
Assistant Professor, Department Keywords: trend, markov chain analysis, export, structural composition
of Horticulture, College of
Agriculture, UAS, Dharwad,
Karnataka, India Introduction
Grape is a fruiting berry of the deciduous woody vines of the botanical genus Vitis vinifera.
Vennila M Grapes can be eaten raw or they can be used for making wine, jam, juice, jelly, grape seed
Ph.D Research Scholar extract, raisins, vinegar and grape seed oil. Grapes are a non-climacteric type of fruit, generally
(Agribusiness Management),
Department of Agribusiness
occurring in clusters. Grape (Vitis vinifera) is one of the most delicious refreshing and
Management, UAS, Dharwad nourishing fruits. It is universally consumed as table fruit and ripen grapes are easily
University of Agricultural digestible. They are rich in energy giving sugars and some useful minerals like phosphorus,
Sciences, Dharwad, Karnataka, iron and vitamins like B1 and B2. Majority of grapes produced in the world is pressed for wine
India making (80%), nearly 10 per cent for raisin making, hardly 5 per cent is used as table grapes
and remaining 5 per cent is used as unfermented beverage. Grapes are also processed into
products like raisins, juice and jellies. Grape juice is a refreshing drink, a stimulant to kidneys
and also as a laxative.
The major producers of grapes are China, Italy, USA, Spain, France, Turkey, Chile, Argentina,
Iran and India. The major exporters are Chile, USA, Turkey, South Africa, Italy, Mexico
Spain, Peru, Brazil and Greece. The major export markets for Indian grapes are Bangladesh
(35.42%), Netherlands (21.5%), and U.K. (13.85%), U.A.E. (10.87%), Germany (3.01%) and
others (15.35%). These five countries accounted for 84.65 per cent of the India’s fresh grapes
export. India stood at 15th place and contributes 1.46 per cent in world’s fresh grapes export.
An attempt has been made to quantify the changing structure of Indian grapes exports.
Major grape-growing states are Maharashtra, Karnataka, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, Tamil
Nadu, and the north-western region covering Punjab, Haryana, western Uttar Pradesh,
Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh total area of different states in grape 1237.80 thousand hectare
and production 24272.53 metric tonnes in the year 2017-18. Maharashtra ranks first in terms
of production accounting for more than 81.22 per cent of total production and highest
productivity in the country. More than 20 varieties are under cultivation in India. However,
only a dozen are commercially grown. Maharashtra ranks first in terms of production
accounting for more than 81.22 per cent of total production and highest productivity in the
Corresponding Author country. Major Export Destinations (2019-20): Netherland, Russia, U K, Bangladesh Pr,
Mr. Mohammadullah Germany.
M.B.A (Agribusiness),
Grape is one of the important fruit covering an area of 123 thousand hectares occupying 2.01
Department of Agribusiness
Management, UAS, Dharwad, per cent of the total area. The country is also a major exporter of fresh Grapes to the world.
Karnataka, India The country has exported 1, 93,690.55 MT of Grapes to the world for the worth of Rs.2,
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176.88 crores/ 298.05 USD Millions during the year 2019-20. country i to country j with the passage of time. The diagonal
The total production of grapes in the world in the 2019-20 is 𝑃𝑖𝑗 measures the probability that the export share of a country
77.10 million metric tons. But in case of India total area of will be retained. Hence, an examination of the diagonal
grape 1488 thousand hectare and production of grape 30308 elements indicates the loyalty of an importing country to a
thousand metric tonnes. particular country’s exports.

Methodology 𝑟

Growth rate analysis 𝐸𝑗𝑡 = ∑ Eij − Pij + ejt

The growth rate of area, production, productivity and export 𝑟=1
of mango was computed for a period from 2007-08 to 2019-
20. The liner, log liner, exponential and power function are Where,
some of the important functional form employed to study the 𝐸𝑗𝑡 = Exports from India during the year t to𝐽𝑡ℎ country.
growth rate. 𝐸𝑖𝑡−1 = exports to 𝑖 𝑡ℎ country during the year t-1.
Deferent functional form was tried past for working out of 𝑃𝑖𝑗 = The probability that exports will shift from ith country
growth rates in area, production, productivity and export. to jth country.
Some of the important forms tried were the linear growth 𝑒𝑗𝑡 = The error term this is statistically independent of 𝐸𝑖𝑡−1
model (𝑦 = 𝑎 + 𝑏𝑡), exponential function (𝑦 = abt ) and r = the number of importing countries
quardic function (𝑦 = 𝑎 + 𝑏𝑡 + 𝑐𝑡 2 ) howevere, it was found
the exponential form of the function 𝑦𝑡 = 𝑎𝑏 𝑡 is better and The Transitional Probability𝑃𝑖𝑗 , which can be arranged in a (c
most frequently used one. In the present study, compound
x r) matrix, have the following properties.
growth rate for study, compound growth rate for area,
0 ≤ 𝑃𝑖𝑗 ≤ 1
production, productivity and export of grapes were estimated
by using exponential growth function (Angles 2001) of the 𝑟
form
∑ Pij = 1 for all
t 𝑖=1
Yt = ab + Ut … … . (1)
Thus, the export proportions of each country during period t
Where, were obtained by multiplying the exports to these countries in
𝑌𝑡 = Dependent variable for wich growth rate was estimated the previous period (t-1) with the Transition Probability
(area, production, yield, quantity and unit value cashew Matrix.
export in year “t”) The Transitional Probability Matrix is estimated in the Linear
a= Intercept Programming (LP) frame work by a method referred to as
b= Regression co-efficient Minimization of Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD).
t= year which value from 1, 2….n
𝑈𝑡 = disturbance term in year “t” The LP formulation is stated as
𝑚𝑖𝑛𝑂𝑃 ∗ + 𝐼𝑒
The equation one is transform into log-linear and written as
Subject to –
logyt = loga + tlogb + logUt …...(2) 𝑋𝑃 ∗ + 𝑉 = 𝑌
𝐺𝑃 ∗ = 1
Equation (2) was estimated by using ordinary least square 𝑃 ∗≥ 0
(OLS) technique. The per cent compound growth rate (g) was
derived using the relationship (3) Where,
P* is a vector in which probability Pij are arranged,
g = (anti log − 1) × 100 … … … (3) 0 is a vector of zeros,
I is an appropriately dimensioned vector of area,
Where, e is the vector of absolute errors (IUI)
g= estimate compound growth rate per annum in percentage. Y is a block diagonal matrix of lagged values of Y and
b= antilog of log b V is the vector of errors
G is a grouping matrix to add the row-elements of p arranged
Tabular presentation technique in P* to unity.
Tabular analysis was adopted to study the structural
composition of exports of fruits from India. For this analysis, Results and Discussion
the country wise export data of quantity and value of grapes, Trend in area, production and productivity of grapes
were selected and arranged in a systematic manner to describe The table 1 presents the trend in area, production and
the structural composition of exports. productivity of grapes in India. The area of grapes in the year
2007-08 was 68 thousand hectares has rose to 140 thousand
Pattern of foreign trade hectares in the year 2019-20. Average area during the study
Markov chain first order process to study the direction of period is 114 thousand hectares with coefficient of variation
Indian grapes exports. The structural change in exports was to be 20.61 per cent. The growth rate of area was found to be
examined using the Markov Chain Approach. 5.05 per cent with the statistical significance at 1 per cent
Central to Markov Chain Analysis is the estimation of the probability level. The coefficient of determination registered
Transitional Probability Matrix P. The element 𝑃𝑖𝑗 of this at 70 per cent. The next variable that is production which was
matrix indicates the probability that exports will switch from 1735 thousand Mt in the year 2007-08 was increased to 3125
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thousand Mt in the year 2019-20. Average production during under grapes is increasing in the major parts of the southern
the study period was around 2331 thousand Mt having the states of the country. Since grape is such kind of a fruit which
growth rate of 7.85 per cent with the time variable of 59 per is used for multipurpose that is in preparation of juice, raisin
cent. The overall analysis of growth rate was found to be and red wine. As there is huge demand in the domestic and
statistically significant at 1 per cent probability level. The last international market for the grapes. Coefficient of variation
variable that is yield, in the year 2007-08 yield was 25.51 was not much indicating that there is not much change in the
Mt/ha was having the variation in the study period. The area to other crops. The growth rate in production signified
average yield was registered at 21 MT/ha with the growth rate that grapes are produced widely across the nation to meet the
of 2.66 per cent during the study period. The coefficient of demands at national as well as international level (Lathika and
determination accounted to 83 per cent respectively. Area Ajithkumar 2005) [9].

Table 1: Trend in area, production and productivity of grapes in India

Years Area (000 ha) Production (000 Mt) Yield (Mt/ha)
2007-08 68 1735 25.51
2008-09 80 1878 23.48
2009-10 106 881 18.28
2010-11 111 1235 15.13
2011-12 116 2221 19.15
2012-13 118 2483 21.04
2013-14 88 2454 27.89
2014-15 123 2823 22.95
2015-16 122 2590 21.23
2016-17 137 2922 21.33
2017-18 139 2920 21.01
2018-19 140 3041 21.72
2019-20 140 3125 22.32
Total 1488 30308 267
Mean 114 2331 21
Std 23.60 710.35 5.32
CV 20.61 30.47 25.92
CAGR (%) 5.05** 7.85** 2.66
R² 0.70 0.59 0.83
** Significant at 1 percentage
* Significant at 5 percentage

The Table 2 depicts the trend in production under grapes of was decreased to 8.23 thousand MT in 2017-18 having a
different states. Production in Andhra Pradesh was 2.80 negative growth rate of 9.60 per cent which was explained by
thousand MT in the year 2007-08 which was increased to the time variable of 84 per cent. For the state of Tamil Nadu
15.92 thousand MT in 2017-18.Average production in grapes in the year 2007-08 the production was around 83.5 thousand
was around 22.62 thousand MT during the study period. MT which was decreased to 58.93thousand MT in 2017-18.
Negative growth rate was registered with 1.82 per cent with There was a negative growth rate in production with the value
the R2 value of 85 per cent. In Karnataka the production was of 7.19 per cent which was explained by the time variable of
found to be 258.8 thousand MT in the year 2007-08 which 46 per cent. The other states producing grapes had the growth
rose to 524.2 thousand MT in 2017-18. The average rate of production in grapes of 4.93 per cent with the time
production during the study period was found to be 355.7 variable explaining to the tune of 93 per cent respectively.
thousand MT with the growth rate of 6.60 per cent while Among the selected states that is Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka,
coefficient determination to be 81 per cent. The production in Maharashtra, Mizoram, Punjab and Tamil Nadu. The states
Maharashtra state was found to be 1290 thousand MT in the which exhibited a negative growth rate are Andhra Pradesh,
year 2007-08 increased to 2286.44 thousand MT in 2017-18. Punjab and Tamil Nadu the reason for decline in area can be
There was a positive growth rate with 11.43 per cent having endorsed for the decline in production in these states. The
the time variable with 61 per cent, an average production maximum growth rate was observed in Maharashtra state as
during the study period registered with 1722.2 thousand MT. this state is one of the major states for growing the grapes. In
For Mizoram state the production of grapes was 8.3 thousand March 2020, a new variety has been released that is ARI-516
MT in the year 2007-08 was increased to 18.0 thousand MT which is a multi-purpose grape variety with a musky flavour
in 2017-18 with a growth rate of 7.45 per cent which was and is moderately resistant fungal diseases developed by
explained by the time variable with 95 per cent. An average Agricultural Research Institute (ARI) of Pune. Introduction of
production during the study period was around 18.41 new high yielding variety has boosted for the increase in area
thousand MT. In case of Punjab state, the production of of the crop (Chadha 2006) [3].
grapes in the year was found to be 21.0 thousand MT which

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Table 2: Trend in production under grapes of different states (MT/hectare)

Years Andhra Pradesh Karnataka Maharashtra Mizoram Punjab Tamil Nadu Others
2007-08 2.80 258.80 1290.00 8.30 21.00 83.50 66.80
2008-09 62.20 269.00 1415.00 10.00 22.10 91.00 2.50
2009-10 29.80 317.60 440.00 13.70 15.50 44.10 7.50
2010-11 27.60 330.30 774.00 20.40 12.50 53.00 17.10
2011-12 28.90 288.10 1810.00 24.30 12.50 55.10 2.00
2012-13 31.50 320.90 2050.00 20.80 12.50 43.40 2.00
2013-14 8.90 302.40 2160.00 23.90 12.00 47.30 28.80
2014-15 11.20 420.80 2292.50 22.60 9.20 32.60 30.90
2015-16 14.64 429.78 2048.11 22.55 8.49 34.10 30.17
2016-17 15.36 450.79 2378.17 18.00 8.22 29.02 20.86
2017-18 15.92 524.20 2286.44 18.00 8.23 58.93 7.09
Total 248.82 3912.67 18944.22 202.55 142.24 572.05 215.72
Mean 22.62 355.70 1722.20 18.41 12.93 52.00 19.61
SD 16.23 86.48 656.60 5.52 4.85 19.89 19.43
CAGR (%) -1.82 6.60** 11.43* 7.45* -9.60** -7.19* 4.93
R2 0.85 0.81 0.61 0.95 0.84 0.46 0.93
** Significant at 1 percentage
* Significant at 5 percentage

Structural composition of exports Kingdom 7.48 per cent, Bangladesh 16.90 per cent and
Percentage share to total export of grapes from India is Germany to be 4.50 per cent. The other minor importing
depicted in table 3. Five major countries which are importing countries had the share of 29.81 per cent. The other minor
grapes from India are Netherland, Russia, United Kingdom, importing countries had also a major share indicating that
Bangladesh and Germany. In the year 2008-09, among total there is a huge demand for India grapes in the International
exports Netherland share was 20.60 per cent, Russia share market. As per APEDA report on the country Netherlands, the
was 0.58 per cent, United Kingdom 10.73 per cent, country imports Indian Grapes and markets the grapes to the
Bangladesh 46.03 per cent and Germany to be 1.07 per cent. European countries. Thomson seedless variety is the major
The other importing countries had the share of 20.99 per cent. variety that is having huge demand in the International market
In the year 2019-20 the share of Netherland among the total (Aneja 2017) [2].
exports was 29.05 percent, Russia 12.25 per cent, United

Table 3: Percentage share to total export of grapes from India

Years Netherland Russia UK Bangladesh Germany Others
2008-09 20.60 0.58 10.73 46.03 1.07 20.99
2009-10 24.56 0.64 12.19 37.86 1.37 23.38
2010-11 19.67 2.20 7.48 41.17 0.70 28.78
2011-12 19.38 4.86 6.92 37.57 0.63 30.64
2012-13 25.48 11.27 10.52 23.10 1.04 28.60
2013-14 28.76 14.52 10.42 19.41 1.51 25.38
2014-15 34.78 13.08 13.98 3.68 2.71 31.77
2015-16 37.99 9.38 13.27 5.90 3.18 30.28
2016-17 27.72 11.26 6.84 19.20 5.27 29.71
2017-18 31.06 14.58 9.88 2.70 8.74 33.05
2018-19 29.36 12.31 7.15 18.86 6.39 25.93
2019-20 29.05 12.25 7.48 16.90 4.50 29.81

To examine the direction of trade share to Netherland and Germany to the extent of 36 per cent
Table 4 presents the transitional probability matrix of Indian and 3 per cent. The next country which was found to be stable
grape exports from 2008-09 to 2019-20. Russia, United was United Kingdom which retained a share of 64 per cent of
Kingdom, Bangladesh and Germany were found to be stable its previous market share. The retention of the previous
markets with good amount of retention of market share. While market share was from Bangladesh and Other minor
Netherland and others minor importing countries had retained importing countries to the tune of 8 per cent and 5 per cent.
a moderate market share. The country Netherland retained 36 Country Bangladesh retained the share of 69 per cent from its
per cent of its previous market share of which it lost to Russia previous market share and found to be stable market. It lost its
with 9 per cent, 3 per cent to Germany and 51 per cent to market share to Netherland, United Kingdom and other minor
other minor importing countries during the study period. It importing countries to the tune of 1 per cent, 8 per cent and 20
gained the market share from Russia to the extent of 36 per per cent. Germany was found to be stable market with the
cent, 1 per cent from Bangladesh and 52 per cent from other retention of the share with 54 per cent of its market share
minor importing countries. Russia retained a share of 60 per which it was gained from Netherland and Russia with 3 per
cent of its previous market share with the gain in its market cent each. It lost its market share to 8 per cent to Russia, 20
share from Netherland, Germany and other minor importing per cent to Bangladesh and 16 per cent to other minor
countries to the tune of 9 per cent, 8 per cent and 5 per cent importing countries. The other countries retained the share of
respectively. During the study period Russia lost its market 36 per cent of its previous market share losing to Netherland

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52 per cent, Russia and United Kingdom 5 per cent each. It Germany with 8 per cent. Russia had gained the share from
gained the share from Netherland, Bangladesh and Germany Germany and Other importing states to extent of 17 per cent
to the tune of 50 per cent, 20 per cent and 16 per cent and 14 per cent. United Kingdom retained 36 per cent of its
respectively. While Netherland and others minor importing previous market share, as it lost the share to Netherland at 33
countries had retained a moderate market share. The country per cent and Bangladesh 29 per cent. The next country which
Netherland retained 36 per cent of its previous market share was listed in the table was Bangladesh which retained a share
of which it lost to Russia with 9 per cent, 3 per cent to of 27 per cent as it lost 15 per cent of its share to Netherland,
Germany and 51 per cent to other minor importing countries 19 per cent to United Kingdom and 38 per cent to other minor
during the study period. As it is evident from the table importing countries. At the same time, it had gained its
Bangladesh was the most stable market which was followed market share from Netherland and Russia with a major of 1
by United Kingdom, Russia, Germany, other minor importing and 8 per cent. The other minor importing countries which
countries and Netherland for Indian grapes that is exported. were grouped under others retained the market share of 30 per
Even though there is imposition of import duties, Bangladesh cent of its previous market share. It lost its market share
retained the market share and was found to be the most stable Netherland with 31 per cent, Russia to be 14 per cent and
nation for the Indian grapes respectively (Sadavatti, 2006) [11]. United Kingdom to be 23 per cent respectively. Russia and
Transitional probability matrix of India grape exports in terms Germany were found to be more stable market in terms of
of value for the period of 2008-09 to 2019-20 is presented in value for the grapes that are exported during the study period.
Table 5. Russia and Germany were found to be more stable Netherland, United Kingdom, Bangladesh and other minor
market in terms of value for the grapes that are exported importing countries were found to be moderately stable.
during the study period. Netherland, United Kingdom, Netherland retained the share of 46 per cent of its previous
Bangladesh and other minor importing countries were found year. It lost its share to Germany and other minor importing
to be moderately stable. Netherland retained the share of 46 countries with 1 per cent and 51 per cent respectively. As it is
per cent of its previous year. It lost its share to Germany and evident from the table all the countries were found to be
other minor importing countries with 1 per cent and 51 per stable as there was some level of retention of the share with
cent respectively. On the other side the share was gained from its previous year. The most stable market that was observed
Russia, United Kingdom, Bangladesh and Other minor was Germany, followed by Russia, Netherland, United
importing countries to the extent of 39 per cent, 33 per cent, Kingdom, other minor importing countries and Bangladesh.
15 per cent and 31 per cent respectively. Russia retained the Government need to meet the demands as per the
share of 51 per cent to its previous market share of which it specifications of the country to retain the country to be loyal
lost its remaining market share to Netherland 39 per cent and for the imports of grapes Satishkumar et al. 2016) [12].

Table 4: Transitional probability matrix of Indian grapes exports (quantity) from 2008-09 to 2019-20
Country Netherland Russia UK Bangladesh Germany Others
Netherland 0.3609 0.0955 0.0000 0.0000 0.0372 0.5064
Russia 0.3630 0.6063 0.0000 0.0000 0.0308 0.0000
UK 0.0064 0.0000 0.6419 0.3517 0.0000 0.0000
Bangladesh 0.0134 0.0000 0.0898 0.6942 0.0000 0.2026
Germany 0.0000 0.0865 0.0000 0.2024 0.5476 0.1635
Others 0.5279 0.0551 0.0557 0.0000 0.0000 0.3613

Table 5: Transitional probability matrix of Indian grapes exports (value) from 2008-09 to 2019-20
Country Netherland Russia UK Bangladesh Germany Others
Netherland 0.4691 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0166 0.5143
Russia 0.3945 0.5171 0.0000 0.0000 0.0884 0.0000
UK 0.3393 0.0000 0.3620 0.2987 0.0000 0.0000
Bangladesh 0.1529 0.0000 0.1920 0.2715 0.0000 0.3835
Germany 0.0000 0.1739 0.0000 0.1645 0.6094 0.0523
Others 0.3117 0.1467 0.2371 0.0000 0.0000 0.3046

Conclusion be more stable market in terms of value for the grapes that are
Horticulture is an inevitable segment playing a major role in exported during the study period. Netherland, United
the economy of Indian agriculture. The area of grapes in the Kingdom, Bangladesh and other minor importing countries
year 2007-08 was 68 thousand hectares has rose to 140 were found to be moderately stable.Government need to meet
thousand hectares in the year 2019-20. Production which was the demands as per the specifications of the country to retain
1735 thousand Mt in the year 2007-08 was increased to 3125 the country to be loyal for the imports of grapes.
thousand Mt in the year 2019-20. Five major countries which
are importing grapes from India are Netherland, Russia, References
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