A Technical Report on

Business Cycle
From
[Economics For Engineers (HM-HU 701]
Continuous Assessment 2(CA 2)

Under
MAULANA ABUL KALAM AZAD UNIVERSITY OF TECHNOLOGY
(Formerly known as West Bengal University of Technology)

Submitted by
NAME: Pravat Kumar Rout

REGISTRATION NUMBER: 212690100720053

ROLL NUMBER: 26900721042
DEPARTMENT: ME
YEAR: 4 th
SEMESTER: 7th

MODERN INSTITUTE OF ENGINEERING & TECHNOLOGY RAJHAT, BANDEL,HOOGHLY 2023

 INTRODUCTION
Rapid economic growth witnessed by many developed economies during the past two centuries has not been
a smooth one. There have been periodical ups and downs in the GDP levels of these countries. Along with
output, there have been fluctuations in various economic aggregates such as income, employment and
prices and their long term trends. These economies have experienced phases of expansion and contraction
in output and other economic aggregates alternatively. These alternating phases of upswings and
downswings are known as business cycles. Theoretical explanations of business cycles evolved in the
early 20th century. Periods of expansion and contraction in an economy exhibited a remarkable degree of
regularity. The characteristics of these phases are carefully documented by economists like Wesley
Mitchell, Simon Kuznets and Frederick Mills. Mitchell documented the co-movement of variables over
the cycles; Mills documented the co-movement of prices and quantities over expansions and contractions,
while Kuznets studied the patterns of both growth and fluctuations. The 1930s was a very active period of
business cycle research as the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) continued its program
(begun by Mills and Mitchell) of empirically documenting the features of business cycles. However,
interest in business cycles waned after the publication of Keynes’ General Theory which turned attention
away from Business cycles to short run management of the economy. Interest in business cycles revived
in the 1970s when the prevalent economic crisis in many countries could not be explained by Keynesian
model. In this unit we first explain the features of business cycles and the various phases of business cycles.
We proceed further to examine how to identify business cycles and measure the aggregate state of the
economy using various economic series. Subsequently we explain the important theoretical frameworks of
business cycles.
FEATURES OF BUSINESS CYCLES
Business cycles are economy-wide fluctuations in output, unemployment, prices, revenue, profits, and
interest rates, among other variables. These fluctuations occur across the economy and over a number of
years. Fluctuations always take place in an economy. Business cycles, however, do not refer to
fluctuations that are specific to one geographic region or industry within an economy. To identifybusiness
cycles, we must look at factors that can have an effect on the entire economy.
Business cycles consist of recurrent alternating phases of expansions and contractions in a number of
economic variables including employment, production, real income, and real sales. Business cycles involve
multidimensional processes, in which quantities and prices, stocks and flows, outputs and inputs, real,
monetary, and financial variables all tend to move together. These are asymmetric in the sense that
expansions typically exceed contractions in size and duration. Business cycles can be distinguished from
the other fluctuations in thatthey are usually larger, longer, and widely diffused.
The major features of business cycles are as follows:
1) Though business cycles do not show the same regularity, they have some distinct phases such as
expansion, peak, recession, trough and recovery. The duration of cycle can vary between two years
to twelve years.
2) Business cycles are synchronic. Depression or contraction occurs simultaneously in most industries or
sectors of the economy. Recession passes from one industry to another and chain reaction continues
till the whole economy is in the grip of recession. Similarly, expansion spreads through various
linkages between industries or sectors.
3) Fluctuations occur simultaneously in the level of output as well as employment, investment,
consumption, etc.
4) Consumption of durable goods and investment are affected the most by cyclical fluctuations. As
stressed by Keynes, investment is very unstable as it depends on profit expectations of private
entrepreneurs. Any change in these expectations makes investment unstable. Thus the amplitude of
fluctuation in the case of durable household effects is higher than that ofGDP.
5) Consumption of non-durable goods and services do not vary much during the different phases of
business cycles. Past data of business cycles reveal that households maintain a great stability in the
consumption of non- durable goods. Thus the amplitude of fluctuations in the case of non- durable
consumption goods is lower than that of GDP.
6) The immediate impact of recession or expansion is on the inventories of goods. When recession sets
in, inventories start accumulating beyond the desired level. It leads to cut in production of goods. In
contrast, when recovery starts, the inventories go below the desired level. It encourages business
houses to place more orders for goods which boost production and stimulates investment.
7) Profits fluctuate more than any other type of income as the occurrence of business cycles causes lot of
uncertainty for the businessmen and makes it difficult to forecast economic conditions. During
depression, profits turn negative and many businesses go bankrupt.
8) Business cycles are international in character. That is, once started in one country, they spread to other
countries through contagion effect. The downslide in financial market, for example, in one country
spreads rapidly to other country as financial markets are linked globally through capital flows. Further,
recessions in one country, say the United States can spread to other country as the imports of the
U.S.A. will decline. Countries which are major exporter to the U.S will witness a decline in their
exports and may witness recession.

PHASES OF BUSINESS CYCLES

Business cycles are characterized by expansion of economic variables in oneperiod and contraction in the
subsequent period. In Fig. 4.1 you can observe the upward sloping curve (expansion phase) there is
acceleration in growth rate. Thedownward sloping segment of the curve indicates the ‘contraction phase’.
In Fig. 4.1 the upward sloping straight line indicates the steady state growth pathor the long run growth
path of the GDP. The actual GDP fluctuates around the steady state growth path due to business
cycles.
According to some researchers there are four phases of a business cycle, viz., expansion, recession,
depression and recovery. The four phases of a business cycle are also depicted in Fig. 4.1. In fact, the
expansion phase comprises both recovery and expansion. Similarly, the contraction phase consists of
both recession and depression. You should note that the difference between recession and depression is
 one degree. In the recession phase there is a deceleration in the growth rate. In the depression phase,
economic growth is below its long run trendand the economy can witness negative growth rate also.
Similarly, the difference between recovery and expansion is one of degree and extent. After negative
growth, the economy passes through the recovery phase and then through the expansion phase. The
point at which the expansion ends and a recession begin is called ‘peak’ of a business cycle. The point
at which a depression ends and recovery begins is called a ‘trough’. Thus peak and trough are ‘turning
points’ in a business cycle.

Y Fig. 4.1: Phases of a Business

Level Pea
of
GDP Steady
Expansi StateLine

Recessi
Prosperi

Prosperit

Depressio

Line Troug

Time X

Expansion Phase
In the expansion phase, there is an increase in various economic factors, such as production,
employment, output, wages, profits, demand and supply of products, and sales. An expansion stage can
begin as the result of many forces, including
willingness of financial institutions to lend more and willingness of business houses to borrow more. There is
overall optimism in the economy. The expansion phase continues till the economic environment is favourable.
During the expansion phase, the economy often gets overheated in the sense that various constrains and
frictions develop in the economy. Wage rate and prices increase much faster than output leading to hike in
production cost and decline inprofits. The central bank pursues a restrictive monetary policy so that inflation is
in under control.
Economic growth in the expansion phase eventually slows down and reaches its peak. During the peak of a
business cycle, economic variables such as production, profits, sales and employment are high; but do not
accelerate further. There is gradual decrease in the demand for various inputs due to the increase in input
prices. The increase in input prices leads to increase in production prices while real income of people does not
increase proportionately. It leads consumers to restructure their monthly budget and the demand for products,
particularly luxuries and consumer durables, starts falling. The peak also occurs before various economic
indicators such as retail sales and the number of employed people falls. When the decline in the demand for
products become rapid and steady, recession takes place
Contraction Phase
In recession phase, all the economic variables such as production, prices, saving and investment, starts
decreasing. Generally, in the beginning of the downturn, producers are not aware of the decrease in the
demand for their products and theycontinue to produce goods and services. In such a case, the supply exceeds
demand and there is accumulation of inventories. Over the time, producers realize that there is an unwanted
accumulation of inventories, escalation in production cost, and decline in profits. Such a condition is first
experienced by few industries and slowly spreads to the whole economy. During the recession phase,
producers usually avoid new investments which lead to the reduction in the demand for factors of production,
and consequent decline in input prices and unemployment. Firms reduce levels of production and the number
of people on their payrolls. A chain reaction starts, lower income, lower demand, lower output, lower
employment, and so on. The adverse effects of recession extent beyond the purely economic realm and
influence the social fabric of society as well. Social unrest and crimes tend to rise during recession.
When recession continues further, economic growth rate may be negative also. This phase is sometimes
termed as ‘depression’. During depression, there is not just a decline in the growth rate; there is a decline in
the absolute level of GDP. As sales declines, business houses find it difficult to repay their debts. As business
sentiments are low enough to carry out new investments, demand for credit declines. Banks also become
cautious in their lending as the chances of default on repayment increases. The economy however revives its
growth rate over a period of time and optimism build up in certain sectors of the economy.
This leads to reversal of the recession phase and the recovery phase starts.
Individuals and organizations start developing a positive attitude towards the various economic factors,
such as investment, employment and production. In the recovery phase, there is an increase in consumer
spending and demand for consumer goods. This provides incentive to firms to increase production, carry
out new investments, hire more labour, etc. Further, there could be some investment during the recession
phase due to replacement of obsolete machines and maintenance of existing capital stock.
Price level plays a very important role in the ‘recovery phase’ of an economy. As pointed out earlier,
during the recession phase decline in input prices is greater than the decline in product prices. This leads
to a reduction in the cost of production and increase in profits. Apart from this, in the ‘recovery phase,
some of the depreciated capital goods are replaced by producers and some are maintained by them. As a
result, investment and employment by organizations increases. As this process gains momentum, an
economy again enters into the phase of expansion. Thus, the business cycle gets completed.
IDENTIFICATION OF BUSINESS CYCLES
Understanding the various phases of business cycles is essential, because it will help the government in
taking counter-cyclical measures. This requires identifying the turning points of a business cycle. In the
United States, the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) has a dedicated research programme
for identifying the dates of business cycle turning points.
Similarly the Euro Area Business Cycle Dating Committee of the Centre for Economic Policy Research
(CEPR) identifies the chronology of recessions and expansions of the Euro Area member countries. In
India also there have been some attempts by scholars to identify the chronology of business cycles (See, for
example, Dua and Banerjee (2000) and Chitre (2001)).
The NBER's Business Cycle Dating Committee maintains a chronology of the United States business cycle.
The chronology comprises alternating dates of peaks and troughs in economic activity. A recession is a
period between a peak and a trough, and an expansion is a period between a trough and a peak. According
to NBER a recession is a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more
than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and
wholesale-retail sales. Similarly, during an expansion, economic activity rises substantially, spreads across
the economy, and usually lasts for several years. Thus, the NBER approach identifies cycles as recurrent
sequences of alternating phases of expansion and contraction in the levels of a large number of economic
time series. This working definition of business cycle has been in use at the NBER for over fifty years, and it
is currently employed by the NBER to identify and date the United States business cycle. These dates are
widely accepted by government, researchers and business analysts.
In both recessions and expansions, brief reversals in economic activity may occur
– a recession may include a short period of expansion followed by further decline; an expansion may
include a short period of contraction followed by further growth. The Business Cycle Dating Committee
applies its judgment based on the above definitions of recessions and expansions and has no fixed rule to
determine these upturns and downturns.
The Committee does not have a fixed definition of economic activity. It examines and compares the behaviour
of various measures of broad activity: real GDP measured on the product and income sides, economy-wide
employment, and real income. The Committee also may consider indicators that do not cover the entire
economy, such as real sales and the Federal Reserve's index of industrial production (IIP)

BUSINESS CYCLE INDICATORS

As you already know, a major objective of macroeconomic policy is to maintain stability in economic growth
and price level. An important part of the job of the central bank is therefore to gather information of the
current and if possible, future economic conditions. The theoretical concept of measuring current business
activities using economic series such as GDP, sales, investment, stock prices, etc. is rather simple though its
practical application is difficult. Usually, the time pattern of these fluctuating economic series is diverse.
While some economic series are expanding at a given point in time, others have already reached their upper
turning point (peak) and still others are on the downswing; a few economic activities might even be at a lower
turning point (trough). Thus the question is how to measure the overall state of the economy using these
economic variables as they have diverse trends.
Economic indicators were conceived at the NBER originally by W.C. Mitchell and A. F. Burns in the 1930s.
This approach requires monitoring of economic variables that tend to be sensitive to cyclical changes no
matter what their cause. There could be three scenarios: (i) certain economic variables move ahead of business
cycles (they ‘lead’ a business cycle), (ii) certain other economic variables lag behind a business cycle (the
turning points in these variables take place later that with certain ‘lag’), and (iii) there are still other economic
variables which ‘coincide’ with business cycles. Burn and Mitchell studied a group of about 487 variables to
see if the turning points in the variables persistently led, coincided with, or lagged behind the turning points in
the U.S. business cycle. Seventy one series were chosen and arranged according to the average lead or lag
with regard to the reference revivals. For example, six time series had no average lead or lag. On the average,
the leading series were from one to ten months ahead of the reference revivals. The lagging series were on the
average from one to twelve months behind.

According to Business Cycle Indicators Handbook 2020, a business cycle indicator should fulfil the
following criteria:
(i) Conformity: the series must conform well to business cycles;
(ii) Consistent Timing: the series must exhibit a consistent timing patternover time as a leading,
coincident or lagging indicator;
(iii) Economic Significance: the cyclical timing of the series must beeconomically logical;
(iv) Statistical Adequacy: data on the variable must be collected andprocessed in a statistically reliable
way;
(v) Smoothness: month-to-month movements in the variable must not be tooerratic; and which are similar
in timing at peaks and troughs with business cycles. Business cycle indicators are classified into three
groups, viz., leading, roughly-coincident and lagging.
Leading Indicators

Leading economic indicators help us assess where the economy is headed. They foreshadow what is
coming, such a turning point, before it actually happens.

One of the most significant leading indicators is the stock market itself, gauged by an index such as the
S&P 500. It will begin to rise before economic environment seems favourable, and it will begin to
decline before economic conditions seem to warrant it. Another important leading indicator is interest
rates. Low interest rate stimulates borrowing and buying, which favours the economy. An increase in
interest rates shows the economy is doing well, but eventually rising interest rates lead to a slowdown
because less people borrow money to start new projects.

Lagging Indicators
Unlike leading indicators, lagging indicators turn around after the economy changes. Although they do
not typically tell us where the economy is headed, they indicate how the economy changes over time and
can help identify long- term trends. Lagging economic indicators reveal past information about the
economy.

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is how much a country is producing. There is significant lag time
between when the data is compiled and when it is released, yet it is still an important indicator. Many
consider a recession to be underway if two quarters see back-to-back declining GDP. Other indicators,
such as the Consumer Price Index (CPI), are also sometimes considered lagging indicators, since they
reveal information that is already known to most consumers.

Coincident Indicators
Coincident indicators change (more or less) simultaneously with general economic conditions and
therefore reflect the current status of the economy. They give consumers, business leaders, and policy
makers an idea about where the economy is currently, right now. When the economy rises today, then
coincident indicators are also rising today. Similarly if the economy declines today, then coincident
indicators are also declining today. Typical examples of coincident indicators are industrial production or
turnover. In Table 4.1 wepresent a list of business cycle indicators.

THEORIES OF BUSINESS CYCLES

We have explained above the various phases and common features of business cycles. Now, an important
question is what causes business cycles. Several theories of business cycles have been propounded from
time to time. Each of these theories spells out different factors which cause business cycles.
Keynes’ Theory of Business Cycle
J.M. Keynes in his seminal work ‘General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money’ made an
important contribution to the analysis of the causes of business cycles. According to Keynes, the changes
in the level of aggregate effective demand will bring about fluctuations in the level of income. The
aggregate demand is composed of demand for consumption goods and demand for investment goods.
According to Keynes, propensity to consume is more or less stable in the short run. Private investment
however depends upon profit motive and business expectations about the economy. Thus fluctuation
in aggregate
demand depends primarily upon fluctuations in investment demand. Multiplier plays a significant role in
causing magnified changes in income following a reduction or increase in investment.
Keynesian theory however fails to explain the cumulative character of business cycle. For example, suppose
that investment rises by 100 rupees and that the magnitude of multiplier is 4. From the theory of multiplier, we
know that national income will rise by 400 rupees and if multiplier is the only force at work that will be the end
of the matter, with the economy reaching a new stable equilibrium at a higher level of national income. But in
real life, this is not likely to be so, for a rise in income produced by a given rise in investment will have
further repercussions in the economy. This reaction is described in the ‘principle of accelerator’ (accelerator
is the impact of income on investment). Samuelson combined the accelerator principle with the multiplier and
showed that the interaction between the two can bring about cyclical fluctuations in economic activity.
Schumpeter’s Innovation Theory of Business cycles
Joseph Schumpeter considered trade cycles to be the result of innovation activity of the entrepreneurs in a
competitive economy. Schumpeter calls the equilibrium state of the economy as a “circular flow” of economic
activity which just repeats itself period after period. The circular flow of economic activity gets disturbed
when an entrepreneur successfully carries out an innovation. According to Schumpeter, the primary function
of an entrepreneur is innovation activity which yields him/ her real ‘profit’.
According to Schumpeter, introduction of a major innovation leads to a business cycle. As the innovator-
entrepreneur begins bidding away resources from other industries, money incomes increase and prices begin
to rise thereby stimulating further investment. As the innovation steps up production, the circular flow in the
economy swells up. Supply exceeds demand. The initial equilibrium is disturbed. There is a wave of expansion
of economic activity. This is what Schumpeter calls the “primary wave”. This primary wave is followed by a
“Secondary wave” of expansion. This is due to the impact of the original innovation on the competitors. You
can imagine the impact of innovation if you relate it to some real life examples such as the Internet, mobile
phone, and on-line transactions.
As the original innovation proves profitable, other entrepreneurs follow it in “swarm-like clusters”.
Innovation in one sector induces innovations in related sectors. Money incomes and prices rise. As potential
profits in these industries increase, a wave of expansion in the whole economy follows.
This period of prosperity ends as soon as ‘new’ products induced by the waves of innovations replace old ones.
Since the demand for the old products goes down, their prices fall and consequently their producer-firms are
forced to reduce their output. When the innovators begin repaying their bank loans out c of the newly- earned
profits, the quantity of money in circulation is reduced as a result of which prices tend to fall and profits decline.
In this atmosphere, uncertainty and risks increase. Recession sets in. The economy cannot continue in
recession for long. Entrepreneurs continue their search for profitable innovations. The natural forces of
revival.
Samuelson’s Model of Business Cycles: Interaction between Multiplierand Accelerator
Samuelson in his seminal paper convincingly showed that an autonomous
depending upon the value of the aggregate demand for goods and services. To produce more goods
multiplier. This increase in we require more capital goods for which extra investment is
income further induces the undertaken. Thus the relationship between investment and
increases in investment through income is one of
acceleration effect. The increase in mutual interaction; investment affects income which in turn
affects investment.
income brings about increase in

Fig. 4.2 shows how income and output will increase by even l rger amount
when accelerator is combined with the Keynesian multiplier.

a = Increase in Autonomous Investment

y = Increase in Income
1
= Size of multiplier when MPC = Marginal Propensit to Consume
1–MPC
 d = Increase in Induced Investment
v = Size of Accelerator
Let us assume that there is an increase in investment in the economy. This will
result in a magnified increase in output and income due to multiplier effect.
When output increases under the influence of multiplier eff ct, it induces further increase in investment. The
extent to this induced investment in capital goods industries depends on the capital-output ratio (v).

= + ...(4.1)
= + ( – ) ...(4.2)
= + ( – − – ) ...(4.3)
where t , t , t stand for income, consumption and investment respectively for
period t, a stands for autonomous consumption, a for autonomous investment,
c for MPC and v for capital-output ratio or accelerator.
From the above equation it is evident that consumption in a period t is a function
of income of the previous period, t–1. That is, one period lag has been assumed
for income to determine the consumption of a period. As regards induced
investment in period t, it is taken to be a function of the change in income in the
previous period. It means that there are two period gaps for changes in income to
determine induced investment. In the equation (4.3) above, induced investment
equals ( t–1 − t–2 ). Substituting equations (4.2) and (4.3) in (4.1), we have
the following:
= + ( – )+ + ( – − – ) ...(4.4)
Equation (4.4) indicates how changes in income are dependent on the values of
MPC ( c ) and capital-output ratio v, (i.e., accelerator).
By taking different combinations of the values of c and v, Samuelson could
describe different paths which the economy would follow. The various
combinations of the values of c and v are shown in Fig. 4.3.

Fig. 4.3: Combinations of c and

Y

1
D
A
E

C
B

v X
The five paths or patterns of movements in output or income can have depends upon the combinations of
the values of c and v. We depict these paths in Fig. 4, Panels (a) to (e). When the combinations of c and v lie
in the region marked A, an increase in investment will increase output a decreasing rate. Finally it reaches a
new equilibrium as shown in panel (a) of Fig. 4.4.

Fig. 4.4 Panel (a): Income and

Y

Income
(Output New
)

Initial

0 X
Time

If the values of c and v lie in region B of Fig. 4.3, a change in investment will generate fluctuations in
income which follow the pattern of a series of damped cycles as shown in panel (b) of Fig. 4.4. It means that
the amplitude goes on declining until the cycles disappear over a period of time.

Y Fig. 4.4, Panel (b): Income and

New
Income
(Output)

Initial

0 X
Time

You should note that region C of Fig. 4.3 represents the combinations of c and v which are relatively high
as compared to the region B. Such values of multiplierand accelerator bring about explosive cycles as given
in panel (c) of Fig. 4.4.
It implies that the fluctuations of income will be successively greater and greaterin amplitude.

Fig. 4.4 Panel (c): Income and Output

Y

Ceiling

Income
(Output)

Initial

0 X
Time

The region D of Fig. 4.3 describes the combinations of c and v which cause income to move upward or
downward at an increasing rate. We have depicted it in panel (d) of Fig. 4.4.

Fig. 4.4 Panel (d): Income and Output

Y

Ceiling

Income
(Output
)

Initial

0 X
Time

In a special case when values of c and v lie in the region E of Fig. 4.3, they produce fluctuations in
income of constant amplitude and are shown in panel (e) of Fig. 4.4. You should note that all the above
five cases do not give rise to
cyclical fluctuations or business cycles. It is only combinations of c and v lyingin the regions B, C and that
produce business cycles.

Y Fig. 4.4 Panel (e): Income and

Income
(Output)

Initial

0 X
Time
Fig. 4.4 Panel (a) to (e) shows different patterns of income (output) movements
for various values of c and v which respectively determine the magnitudes of
multiplier and accelerator.

Real Business Cycle Theory

According real business cycle theory, monetary shocks or expectation changes have no role to play in a
business cycle. The real business cycle theory makes the fundamental assumption that root cause of
business cycle is real shocks to an economy. These shocks could be from the supply side such as
technology shocks (changes in total factor productivity). Technological shocks include innovations, bad
weather, stricter safety regulations, etc.
Business cycles are primarily caused by real or supply side shocks that involve exogenous large random
changes in technology. An initial shock in the form of technical progress shifts the production function
upward. This leads to increase in available resources, investment, consumption and real output. With the
increase in investment, the capital stock increases which further increases real output, consumption and
investment. This process of expansion of the economy continues erratically due to changes in technology
over time.
Real business cycle theory explains the causes of recession as follows: A recession in the real business
theory is just the reverse of expansion. Negative real shocks decreases the available resources, and shifts
the production functiondownward as a result of which output declines.
There could be several examples of negative real shocks such as decline in technology (i.e., technical
regress), unexpected rise in input prices (crude oil crisis), scanty rainfall (severe drought), etc. This
starts a process of decline in
 investment, consumption, output and employment. But the models of real business cycle do not explain a
recession.

References:
1) Boschan, C. and A. Banerji (1990), “A Reassessment of Composite Indexes” in Analyzing Modern Business
Cycles, ed., P.A. Klein, M.E. Sharpe, New York.
2) Burns, A.F. and W.C. Mitchell (1946), Measuring Business Cycles, National Bureau of Economic Research,
New York.
3) Chitre, V.S. (1982), “Growth Cycles in the Indian Economy,” Artha Vijnana, 24, 293-450.
4) Dua, P. and A. Banerji (1999), “An Index of Coincident Economic Indicators for the Indian Economy”,
Journal of Quantitative Economics, 15, 177-201.
5) Dua, P. and A. Banerji (2004a), “Monitoring and Predicting Business and Growth Rate Cycles in the Indian
Economy”, in Business Cycles and Economic Growth: An Analysis Using Leading Indicators, ed., P. Dua,
Oxford University Press.
6) Dua, P. and A. Banerji (2004b), “Economic Indicator Approach and Sectoral Analysis: Predicting Cycles in
Growth of Indian Exports”, in Business Cycles and Economic Growth: An Analysis Using Leading
Indicators, ed., P. Dua, Oxford University Press.
7) Layton, A.P. and A. Banerji (2004), “Dating Business Cycles: Why Output Alone is Not Enough”, Business
Cycles and Economic Growth: An Analysis Using Leading Indicators, ed., P. Dua, Oxford University Press.
8) Moore, G.H. (1982), “Business Cycles” in Encyclopaedia of Economics, D. Greenwald, Editor in Chief,
McGraw Hill Book Company, New York.