Web Lecture 1
Web Lecture 1
in
Engineering
• Th organisation
The i i off the
h lecture
l – practical
i l stuff
ff
• Examples
Print edition of lecture notes for the entire course is available for a cost of CHF 45.
PowerPoint presentations for each lecture will be uploaded on the webpage the
latest one day before the respective lecture.
• Th exam for
The f the
th course is
i an orall examination
i ti
• What do engineers do ?
- Plan, design, build, maintain and decommission
Infrastructure
Roads, water supply systems, tunnels, sewage systems,
waste deposits, power supply systems, channels
Structures
houses, hospitals, schools, industry buildings, dams, power
plants,, wind turbines,, offshore platforms
p p
- Safeguard
people
environment SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT !
assets
from natural and man made hazards
Earthquakes
Corrosion Fatigue
Fires Explosions
Concrete
Gravity Ice Dynamics
Waves
Snow New materials
Soil Temperature
Water Rocks
Waste
Air Chemicals
Wind Electricity
Steel
Mathematics Physics
Models/hypothesis
In a p
perfectly
y known world
Models
Decisions
Costs/Benefits
Data Experience
Real world
Models
Accuracy/Uncertainty
Data Experience
Models
Data Experience
Models
Decisions
C t /B
Costs/Benefits
fit
All activities
ti iti are associated
i t d with
ith uncertainties
t i ti
- Transport
- Work
- Sport
S t
but also
- Production of energy
- Exploitation of resources
- Construction and operation of production
and infrastructure p
projects
j
- Research and development
Swiss Federal Institute of Technology
Why Risk and Safety in Engineering?
Every day
E d we must make
k d
decisions
i i in
i regard
d to activities
i i i associated
i d
with uncertainties
Car driving
Cooking Smoking
Mountain
climbing
Crossing the
Surfing
street
Stock
trading
Tacoma Narrows
Narrows, Washington,
Washington 1940
Fort Mayer, Virginia, 1908
Open questions
- did we realise the risks ?
- are the consequences acceptable ?
Swiss Federal Institute of Technology
Why Risk and Safety in Engineering?
Disasters and accidents have always occurred
Some examples
Kobe, 1995
Open questions
- did we realise the risks ?
- are the consequences acceptable ?
Swiss Federal Institute of Technology
Why Risk and Safety in Engineering?
Disasters and accidents have always occurred
Some examples
Open questions
- did we realise the risks ?
Hurricane Katrina, New Orleans, 2005
- are the consequences acceptable ?
Swiss Federal Institute of Technology
Why Risk and Safety in Engineering?
Risk
Ri k assessment, t within
ithi the
th framework
f k off decision
d i i analysis,
l i provides
id a
basis for rational decision making subject to uncertain and / or
incomplete information
The risk contribution REi from the event Ei is defined through the product
between
and
Uncertainties
U t i ti mustt be b considered
id d in
i the
th decision
d i i making
ki throughout
th h t all
ll
phases of the life of an engineering facility
Planning g and Investigations
g and
feasibility study tests
Uncertainties Design
T ffi volume
Traffic l Idea &
Concept
Loads • Safety
Safety of
ofpersonnel
personnel
Manufacturing
Resistances • Safety
Safety
yy of
ofenvironment
environment
(material, soil,..)
Manufacturing costs
Decommissioning Operation &
Execution costs maintenance
Decommissioning
costs
• Th Frigg
The F i Field
Fi ld – built
b il 1972-1978
1972 1978
- TCP2
- TP1
- CDP1
According to international
conventions the structures
must be decommissioned
Each structure :
Weight
W i ht : 250000 t
Costs : 200 – 600 million CHF
• N
None off th
the platforms
l tf were designed
d i d for
f decommissioning
d i i i !
• S
Structural
l Design
D i
G t Belt
Great B lt Bridge
B id under
d C Construction
t ti C
Concept
t drawing
d i off th
the T
Trollll platform
l tf
• S
Structural
l Design
D i
• I
Inspection
i and
d Maintenance
M i Planning
Pl i
Due to
- operational loading
- environmental exposure
- fatigue
- corrosion
- scour
- wear
• I
Inspection
i and
d Maintenance
M i Planning
Pl i
safety of workers
• I
Inspection
ti and
d Maintenance
M i t Planning
Pl i
safety of workers
Define System
Risk
Ri k assessmentt supports
t d
decision
i i
making subject to uncertainties
Identify Hazard
Scenarios
- what might go wrong
- how can it happen
-how to control it
Levell 2 :
L
Analysis of the probabilities of occurence
Documents to what detail
of critical events and the corresponding the risk assessment was
consequences
performed!
Level 3 :
As for level 2, but with consideration of
human errors as well as potential loss of
lives – if relevant
• D
Demographical
hi l indicators
i di t
35000
30000
pita (USD PPP))
25000
20000
15000
GDP/cap
10000
5000
0
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Year
• D
Demographical
hi l indicators
i di t
90
80
Expected life at birth
h
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
Year
• Lif quality
Life lit can be
b assessed
d through
th h the
th
as a function of GDP,
GDP life expectancy,
expectancy free time,…
time
A ti it /
Activity/course Number
N b off ffatalities
t liti
per hour per 108 persons
Mountaineering (international) 2700
Aviation transport (international) 120
Deep sea travling 59
Auto traffic 56
Mining (coal) 21
Construction work 7.7
Manufacturing/production 2.0
Accidents at home 2.1
Accidents at home (healthy persons) 0.7
Fires at home 0.1
Structural failures 0.002
• O
Occupational
ti l risks
i k
% of Fatalities per
Occupation
p sector
employees 100 000 employed
100,000
Private industry 90 4.2
- Agriculture, forestry and fishing 14 22.7
- Mining 2 23.5
- oil and gas exploitation 1 23 1
23.1
- Construction 20 12.2
- Manufacturing 10 3.1
- Transportation and public utilities 16 11.3
- Wholesale trade 4 40
4.0
- Retail trade 9 2.1
- Finance, insurance, and real estate 2 1.0
- Services 12 1.7
Government 10 27
2.7
- Federal (including resident armed forces) 2 3.0
Total 100 4.0
• N t
Natural
l disasters
di t
1 Insured
Victims 2,3 Event Country
losses
300 000 – 1 4 . 1 1 . 1 9 70 S torm and flood catas trophe Banglades h
250 000 – 2 8 . 0 7 . 1 9 76 Earthquake in T angs han (8 . 2 R ichter s cale) C hina
138 000 3 2 9 . 0 4 . 1 9 91 T ropical cyclone Gorky Banglades h
60 000 – 3 1 . 0 5 . 1 9 70 Earthquake (7 . 7 R ichter s cale) Peru
50 000 156 2 1 . 0 6 . 1 9 90 Earthquake
q in Gilan Iran
25 000 – 0 7 . 1 2 . 1 9 88 Earthquake in A rmenia A rmenia, ex-US S R
25 000 – 1 6 . 0 9 . 1 9 78 Earthquake in T abas Iran
23 000 – 1 3 . 1 1 . 1 9 85 V olcanic eruption on Nevado del R uiz C olombia
22 000 233 0 4 . 0 2 . 1 9 76 Earthquake (7 . 4 R ichter s cale) Guatemala
19 118 1063 1 7 . 0 8 . 1 9 99 Earthquake in Izmit T urkey
15 000 100 2 6 . 0 1 . 2 0 01 Earthquake (moment magnitude 7 . 7 ) in Gujarat India, Pakis tan
15 000 106 2 9 . 1 0 . 1 9 99 C yclone 0 5 B devas tates Oris sa s tate India, Banglades h
15 000 – 0 1 . 0 9 . 1 9 78 Flooding follow ing mons oon rains in northern parts India
15 000 530 1 9 . 0 9 . 1 9 85 Earthquake (8 . 1 R ichter s cale) M exico
15 000 – 1 1 . 0 8 . 1 9 79 Dyke burs t in M orvi India
10 800 – 3 1 . 1 0 . 1 9 71 Flooding in Bay of Bengal and Oris sa s tate India
10 000 234 1 5 . 1 2 . 1 9 99 Flooding, muds lides , lands lides V enezuela, C olombia
• M l
Malevolence
l - terrorism
t i
It is important
p that this potential
p is
fully understood
Case where
C h th risk
the i k potential
t ti l
was not fully appreciated
Case where
C h th risk
the i k potential
t ti l
was not fully appreciated
F il
Failures in
i structural
t t l engineering
i i
3 1 2 2 2 2
100
10
29 21
Retrofit / Disposal
80 39 40
62 Usage
60 Execution
88
40 69 77
58 58
20 37
0
high Industrial Traffic Dams Rest All
Type of Construction rising buildings structures cases
building
Number of samples 362 152 75 51 52 692
F il
Failures in
i structural
t t l engineering
i i
100 5 4 8
9 11 Rest
80 11 6 20
4 Interrim structures
12 3 6
60 14 Technical
19 2
40 Site and installation
72
44 50 Fitting
20
Structure
0
Structural Cost of Damage of
damage damages persons
692 692 60
F il
Failures in
i structural
t t l engineering
i i
• G
General
l introduction
i t d ti to
t risk
i k and
d safety
f t in
i engineering
i i
• Methods of reliability analysis and introduction to the JCSS probabilistic model code
• Introduction to time variant and systems reliability analysis and assessment of structural
robustness
b t