#TalkingAfricaEurope AFRICA EUROPE
FOUNDATION DEBATE
Africa
and Europe
Facts and Figures on
African Migrations
2
African Migrations: Back to facts
There is no “recent critical hike” in migration numbers
• Migrations are part of human history and have shaped most nations.
• The number of migrants has risen constantly in the last decades: in 2020,
there are 127.6 million more people living outside their home country than
in 1990.
• But migrants as a share of the global population increased only marginally:
from 2.9% of the global population in 1990 to 3.6% in 2020.
• Only 3.0% of the African population are living outside their home
country in 2020 compared to 8.5% of the European population.
• Since 2010, in absolute numbers, migrations from Africa have increased
more than from all other world regions but Asia, but this has mostly been
intra-African migrations.
• Intra-African migrations since 2010 have increased by +43.6%
compared to +26.0% for Africa-Europe migrations.
African migrants are not “overwhelming” Europe
• In 2020, the total number of African migrants is 40.6 million.
• This is only 14.5% of the global migrant population, much less than Asia’s
(41.0%) and Europe’s (22.5%) shares.
• Less than one-third (27.2%) of all African migrants live in Europe.
• African migrants constitute less than 15% of the total migrant population
in all world regions other than Africa.
World regions: share of international migration stock (2020)
Share of international
migration stock
0.7% 4.5% 14.5%
1.5%
15.3%
41.0%
22.5% Key
Africa
Asia
Europe
Latin America & the Carribean
Northern America
Oceania
Rest of the world
Source: MIF based on UNDESA
3
World regions: share of African migrants of total migrant population (2020)
Region of destination
82.4 Africa
12.7 Europe
6.3 Oceania
5.6 Northern America
4.8 Asia
0.3 Latin America & the Caribbean
0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0 80.0 90.0 100.0 % of total migrant population
Migrants from Africa Migrants from other regions Source: MIF based on UNDESA
Africa is not “a continent of massive exodus”
• In 2020, more than half of African migrants (51.6%) live within the continent.
• Africa hosts a growing part of the global migrant population, hosting +42.6%
more migrants in 2020 than in 2010, with the number of migrants in Africa
having increased from all world regions.
African migrations towards Europe are mainly economic migrations
• African migrants are not mostly “uneducated single men, looking
for welfare coverage”.
• They are mostly young people, educated, looking for jobs. Almost half
of them are women.
• Around 80% of African migrations are driven by the search for better
economic prospects.
• Only 7.2% of African migrants in EU countries are refugees.
• In 2020, the sole number of Syrian refugees in EU countries (≅1 million)
was higher than the total number of African refugees in the EU (≅0.7 million)
African migrations into Europe are mainly regular
• Although regular channels to migrate to Europe remain limited, which causes
many migrants to engage in unsafe travel across the Mediterranean, most
migrants are still coming on regular routes.
• In 2019, Frontex registered around 40,000 irregular border crossings into
the EU from Africa, which represents less than 10% of the regular migrations
from Africa to Europe between 2019 and 2020.
• Irregular border crossings from Africa to Europe represent less than
one-third of all irregular crossings into the Europe in 2019.
• According to the IOM, between 2011 and 2016, about 80% of all those
arriving from Northern and Western Africa to Europe migrated through
regular channels.
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The rate of effective returns remains very insufficient, and has declined
over the last years.
• In 2020, around 400,000 non-EU citizens were ordered to leave the EU. The
two main countries to which people were ordered to return were Algeria and
Morocco (8.6% and 8.5% of the total, respectively), behind Albania (5.8%).
• Of all return orders issued in 2020, only around 18% of people actually
returned to their home country.
• Among the nationalities with at least 5,000 return orders, the return rate
was particularly low for those coming from Côte d'Ivoire (2.0%), Mali (2.1%),
Guinea (2.5%), Senegal (3.2%) and Algeria (4.8%).
• Among the 17 EU Member States reporting the breakdown on returns in 2020,
25% of the returns were assisted returns - persons returned received logistical,
financial and/or other material assistance. 75% were non-assisted returns.
Migrants are not “a burden on local services”
• They are often a valuable and sought-after resource. In many countries,
migrants constitute a key solution to labour shortages.
• Europe’s aging population will increase the demand for labour.
• By 2055, Europe will have the world’s largest and Africa the world’s smallest
dependency ratio. While in Europe there will be 78.2 dependent people per
100 working-age people, the ratio will be 58.9 in Africa.
• Health care sector specific challenge: In many European countries, African
migrants constitute a large part of the health care workforce.
• In 2020, 13.7% of all doctors in Germany were migrants and around
8% of these were from Africa. The number of doctors from abroad has
constantly been on the rise in Germany since the mid-1990s.
• Africa’s brain-drain in the health sector has been exacerbated by the
COVID-19 crisis with for example France or Germany issuing specific
calls for foreign medical professionals.
• Migrants have a positive impact on the economy of the hosting country:
• Migrants spend approximately 85% of their incomes in the hosting country.
• The estimated contribution of migrants to national GDPs is estimated at 19%
in Côte d’Ivoire, 13% in Rwanda, and 9% in South Africa.
Public opinion and approaches towards migration diverge between Europe
and Africa
• Eight of the ten least accepting countries in Gallup’s 2019 Migration
Acceptance Index are in Europe while four of the ten most accepting
countries at world level are in Africa (in order: Sierra Leone, Burkina Faso,
Chad, Rwanda). No African country features among the ten least
accepting countries.
• An IOM survey shows that in 2021 63% of the world’s countries meet SDG
target 10.7.2 on policies to facilitate orderly, safe, regular and responsible
migration, whereby only 4% meet the target in full.
• Countries are falling short the most when it comes to granting migrants
equal rights with only 16% of the world’s countries fully providing this. 18%
of countries in Africa are fully granting migrants equal rights, the second
highest share of all regions, while only 11% of European countries do so.
5
The key challenge: the lack of relevant job prospects for
Africa’s fast-growing youth
A massive youth bulge
• Around 60% of Africa’s population is currently younger than 25 years.
• Between now and the end of the century, Africa’s youth (15-34 years)
is expected to grow by +168%.
• Meanwhile Europe’s youth will shrink by -24.7% and Asia’s by -30.1%.
• By 2100, Africa’s youth population could be equivalent to more than
twice Europe’s entire population.
Mostly devoid of prospects
• Deteriorating education outcomes:
• The match between education and the skills needed by businesses
is worse in Africa than in other world regions.
• Weak economic prospects: unemployment, informality… or migration
and joining extremist groups and transnational criminal networks?
• Africa’s economic growth runs behind its demographic growth.
• Between 2010 and 2026, while Africa’s population is estimated
to grow almost by +50%, its GDP per capita is estimated to only
grow by around one-third.
• In 2026, the EU’s GDP per capita is estimated to still be more than
18-times larger than Africa’s.
Africa & EU: GDP per capita growth and population
growth (2010-2026)
%
60.0
50.0
+48.6 +48.7
40.0
+32.3
30.0
20.0
10.0
+1.0
0.0
Africa GDP per Africa population EU GDP per EU population Measure
capita growth growth capita growth growth
Source: MIF based on IMF & UNDESA
• Though important, Africa’s economic growth of the last decade has been
mainly jobless.
• African youth consider unemployment by far the most important
problem that their governments need to address.
• For example, in South Africa, the second largest GDP on the continent,
59.6% of young people are jobless.
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• By 2030, 30 million youth are expected to enter the African labour
market each year.
• In sub-Saharan Africa alone, while 18 million new jobs would be needed
annually to absorb new entries in the labour market, only 3 million are
currently being created.
• Case study research on several violent extremist groups in Africa shows
that many members are young people looking for ‘job’ opportunities
when they are recruited.
The current and prospective features of the job market: a need to adapt
• Premature deindustrialisation in Africa:
• Since 2010, manufacturing’s value added to GDP has actually declined
in more African countries than it has grown.
• Africa’s skills gap: Africa suffers from a severe skills gap – the World Bank’s
Human Capital Index (HCI) measures the lost productivity of the future
workforce as a consequence of neglected investment in human capital.
• Only two African countries score above the global average (Seychelles
and Mauritius) whereas the 25 lowest scoring countries are all in Africa
with the exception of Yemen.
• The Fourth Industrial Revolution (4IR): a deep change in the skills profile
of jobs.
• Between 2020 and 2022, 42% of core skills required to perform existing
jobs will likely have changed.
7
The relevant strategy: organise mobility to dry out
irregular migrations
Migration is a key dynamic that has always taken place over the centuries
and that has shaped human history, built nations and contributed to wealth
creation. Debates about “migration” should rather be about “mobility”. Given
the current demographic and economic imbalances, just aiming at preventing
migrations can only foster more irregular and dangerous parallel routes.
• In 2016, migrant smugglers' income worldwide was estimated up to $7 billion,
which is equivalent to the EU humanitarian aid in the same year.
• In 2019, there was an estimated revenue of at least €70 million for smugglers
along the Western and Central Mediterranean routes.
Geographical mobility
• There is still a lot to be done to facilitate and better organise mobility within
the continent.
• The launch of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) in January
2021 is a key step forward, but it must be accompanied by progress in other
African initiatives such as the Protocol on the Free Movement of Persons.
• So far, only four countries (Mali, Niger, Rwanda, São Tomé and Príncipe)
have ratified this Protocol.
• ECOWAS is currently the only REC whose citizens can travel visa-free
to all countries in the region.
• Only nine African countries request no visa or just visa on arrival for all
African citizens.
• Africa’s intracontinental transport network is still very insufficient.
• With around 204 km per 1,000 km², of which only one-quarter are
paved, Africa’s road network lags far behind the world average (944 km
per 1,000 km², more than half of which paved).
• In 2018, only five African countries had direct flights connecting to 20
or more other African countries: Ethiopia, Kenya, Morocco, Nigeria and
South Africa.
Educational and professional mobility
• Gambia, Rwanda and Uganda are the best scoring among low-income
countries globally in the capacity to enable, grow and retain human talent.
• In 2019, only around 18% of sub-Saharan African students leaving to study
abroad chose an African destination.
• In contrast, more than 80% of European students chose a European
country for their studies abroad.
• China has become the second most popular destination for African
students, after France.
• In 2016, African post-secondary institutions amounted to 1 per about
471,000 people, compared to 1 per 154,000 in the EU.
• For many businesses in Africa, it is often easier to employ a skilled non-
African expatriate than a skilled African expatriate.
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• Educational and professional mobility within the EU
• Freedom of movement: EU citizens can look for a job and work in any
other EU country without a work permit, reside in any other EU country
and enjoy equal treatment with regards to working and social rights.
• European Higher Education Area and the Bologna process: established
in 1999 bringing coherence to higher education systems in Europe to
facilitate student and staff mobility and ensure quality and comparability.
• European Credit Transfer and Accumulation System (ECTS) and Diploma
Supplement: helps students move between countries and to have their
academic qualifications and study periods abroad recognised and to get
degrees recognised across the EU.
• Erasmus+: scholarships for European students to study abroad which
cover registration and tuition fees and a EU grant for living and
travel expenses.
Digital connectivity
• The COVID-19 impact has enlarged and bolstered the use of
digital connectivity.
• However, in Africa, although huge progress has been made, the digital
divide remains a challenge. Both in terms of physical access to ICTs and
in the resources and skills needed to use the technology effectively.
• In 2019, there were only ten African countries where over 50% of
households had internet access.
• There is a wide gap between African countries: while 80.8%
of Morocco’s population have internet access, less than 1% of
Burundi’s population is connected.
• There is also an urban-rural divide with most areas lacking internet
coverage being predominantly rural.
• In Africa, the proportion of women using the internet is notably
smaller than for men with a gap of 17 percentage points (37% of
male users compared to 20% of female users).
• In 2019, just over half (54.7%) of the 1.3 billion people living in Africa were
connected to the electricity grid. Almost 600 million Africans remain off-
grid, more than 1.3 times the population of the EU. This severely limits
digital engagement for Africans.
Last but not least: Know your data
• Strengthening civil registration and vital statistics across the continent is
key to better manage migrations.
• African countries represent more than 52% of the global
unregistered population.
• Over 50% of children in Africa do not have a legal existence.
• Only eight African countries have a complete death registration system.
References 9
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