World Air Cargo

Forecast
2022–2041

World Air Cargo Forecast 2022–2041 1

Table of
Contents

Foreword 2 Latin America and Europe 62

Executive Summary 3 Latin America and North America 69

Air Cargo Industry Overview 4 Middle East 76

Regional Forecasts North America 82

Africa 19 Russia and Central Asia 90

Domestic China 29 South Asia 95

East Asia and North America 33 Freighter Fleet Forecast 101

Europe and East Asia 40 Forecast Methodology 109

Europe and North America 46 Glossary 111

Intra–East Asia and Oceania 51 Appendix 112

Intra-Europe 57

World Air Cargo Forecast 2022–2041 1

Foreword

Boeing’s World Air Cargo Forecast We couldn’t have done this without The next WACF update will appear in
(WACF) is a biennial addendum to the our skilled contributors, who offer fourth-quarter 2024. We welcome any
Commercial Market Outlook, focused decades of expertise in market questions or comments. Please reach
on a comprehensive and long-term analysis, trend forecasting, and air out to us at:
view of the air cargo market. The cargo traffic analysis:
Boeing Commercial Airplanes
forecast offers in-depth analysis of
Anime Benkirane P.O. Box 3707, MC 21-33
the global air trade markets, including
Cristina Cavero Seattle, WA 98124-2207 USA
trends, regional market developments,
Andrew Chuang www.boeing.com/wacf
and the world’s freighter fleet growth.
Josh Collingwood
Tom Hoang
The tumultuous effects of the Tom Crabtree
thomas.l.hoang@boeing.com
pandemic in the last two years have Kimberly Eagle
upended expectations and caused Sharon Felix Gregg Gildemann
challenges for long-term planning and Gregg Gildemann gregg.gildemann@boeing.com
analysis. However, the overall aviation Tom Hoang
Josh Collingwood
and aerospace industries remain Calvin Jin
joshua.collingwood@boeing.com
resilient, and that extends to the air Jayden Lee
cargo market. Deanna Leingang Calvin Jin
Christa Roth calvin.t.jin@boeing.com
Our intention for this forecast is to
Wendy Sowers
arm our customers, our stakeholders,
Caroline Young
and the industry at large with valuable
information that helps them make the
best decisions for the future of air
cargo and global trade. We hope the
2022 WACF meets that vital need.

World Air Cargo Forecast 2022–2041 2

Executive
Summary

50%
long-term share of
1,600
global freighter fleet
Top Air Cargo Traffic Flows Forecast
(~70% of Global Traffic)
Annual
Growth

air cargo traffic growth by 2041 East Asia–N. America 4.4%

carried by freighters
East Asia–Europe 4.5%

8%
freighter share of
940
production freighter
Intra-East Asia 5.7%

North America 3.1%

the commercial deliveries by 2041
airplane fleet
Europe–N. America 2.3%

4.1% 1,855
Domestic China 5.3%

0 30 60 90 120 150 180

annual air cargo freighter conversion Revenue Tonne Kilometers (Billions)
traffic growth deliveries by 2041 2021
through 2041 2022–2041

World Air Cargo Forecast 2022–2041 3

Air Cargo
Overview

World Air Cargo Forecast 2022–2041 4

Air Cargo Overview

A Unique Value Proposition For intercontinental freight, shippers cargo. By weight, 86% of the world’s
usually have only two choices: air and maritime trade is in raw materials
Air cargo is one part of global goods
maritime. Maritime transport offers the and other bulk items. Most of these
distribution networks. Across all
primary benefit, low cost; air transport commodities, such as oil, metal ores,
modes, shippers seek shipments
offers the benefits of speed and and grains, are low in value, not time
arrive at their destination on time,
reliability. sensitive, and shipped in specialized
undamaged and at a reasonable price,
vessels. These cargoes cannot be
regardless of transport mode.
Maritime for Tonnage, directly compared to the high-value,
Different transport modes—road, rail, dry commodities associated with air
maritime and air—can often move Air Cargo for Value transport. However, while air cargo
the same commodities. In domestic Measured in tonnes of goods moved, accounts for less than 1% of the
and intra-regional markets, ground the maritime transport industry is much world’s trade tonnage, the high value of
transport typically dominates. However, larger than the air cargo industry. In these goods means it is responsible for
express and distribution networks as 2021, the world maritime industry about 35% of the value of all globally
well as supply chain planners often see carried an estimated 11.1 billion tonnes, shipped goods.
air as part of the network. compared to 60.9 million tonnes of air

World Trade Focuses on Bulk Commodities

Dry Bulk
41%
Iron and ores of other metals, coal,
grains, cement

Liquid Bulk
32%
Crude oil, petroleum products, liquefied petroleum
gas, liquefied natural gas, other liquids

Containership Commodities
14%
Consumer goods, machinery, textiles,
fruits, vegetables

General Cargo
13%
Wood products, perishables, automobiles,
specialty chemicals

Air Commodities
<1%
Perishables, pharmaceuticals, high-value
electronics

Source: S&P Global GTA

World Air Cargo Forecast 2022–2041 5

Air Cargo Overview

Modal Competition Containerships Increase Maritime Market Share

Containership dynamics influence
air cargo markets due to modal 12 3.2% growth
competition. Containerized cargo is

Tonnes Loaded (billions)

10
the maritime sector that most closely
corresponds to air cargo. While the 8
majority of maritime cargo is low-value
bulk, containerships carry some of the 6
same commodities as air cargo does,
4
while offering a low-cost alternative for
goods that do not require high speed 2
and peak reliability.
Before the COVID-19 pandemic, air 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005 2009 2013 2017 2021
cargo service generally cost 10 to 15 Containerized Cargo Non-containerized Cargo
times more than containership cargo Main Bulk Commodities Tanker Cargo
per unit weight, but it offered shorter Source: CRSL
transit times and higher reliability.
Goods shipped by air are typically high
in value, time-sensitive, and perishable, Air Cargo Service: More Competitive Than Ever
so they require speedy, reliable transit.
Due to operational challenges in 32 Spike at onset of pandemic
Ratio of Air Cargo : Containership Transport Pricing

shipping since the pandemic’s onset, 29.1

the air-to-maritime cost ratio has 28

dropped by more than half, with mid-
2022 air service rates only 4 to 8 times 24
higher than maritime, even as air 20.4
Air is typically 10–15 times more costly Air cargo pricing more competitive
cargo yields nearly doubled pre- 20
than containership transport
pandemic levels. 15.8 15.4
16.8

16 13.8
12.8 13.1 12.9
12.3
11.6 11.8
12

6.7 6.6 7.0

8 6.2 6.0 5.7
5.0 4.9
3.8 3.9
4

Jan-19 Jul-19 Jan-20 Jul-20 Jan-21 Jul-21 Jan-22 Jul-22

Note: Comparison of East-West Air Freight Price Index and Drewry’s East/West Container Freight Rate Index (converted into cost per kg basis: basis 4,500kg per teu)
Source: Drewry Maritime Research

World Air Cargo Forecast 2022–2041 6

Air Cargo Overview

While both maritime shipping and Ultimately, cargo customers benefit

The Containership Top 10 Consolidate
air cargo yields are normalizing as from increased service options and
capacity challenges recede, maritime lower prices, as competing services Top 10 leading providers now control 86% of capacity deployed
yields may remain elevated due to enter the market.
25 90%

Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units (TEU)

industry consolidation. In 2000, the top
10 containership operators handled International Express is 80%
62% of the world’s shipping capacity. 20

% of Total Capacity
In 2022, that share rose to 86%. Booming 70%

(millions)
International express growth is 15 60%
outpacing the overall air cargo market.
Requirements Vary, The international express market 10 50%
Air Cargo Responds grew at a healthy average rate of 7% 40%
Varying requirements drive a range per year between 2011 and 2021. 5
of air cargo services. From an end International express traffic grew 10% 30%
user’s perspective, general freight in both 2020 and 2021.
and express offerings are fairly easy 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021
Higher-than-average annual growth
to distinguish in terms of commodity
boosted the express share of Top 10 Operators Other Operators Top 10 Share of Capacity
and time-definiteness. However, from a
international air cargo traffic from Source: OAG – May Schedule Sample
business-model perspective, the lines
4.1% in 1992 to 13.4% in 2008. The
between express and general air cargo
international express share remained at
continue to blur. Traditional providers
about 13% of total international traffic General Freight Compared to Express
are expanding their time-definite
during the 2008–2010 global financial
offerings, while express carriers,
crisis, but share growth resumed in
freight airlines, and postal authorities General Freight
2011, and market share reached 21%
often provide general cargo service.
in 2021.
Shippers Origin Export Air Carrier Import Destination Consignees
Customs Customs
Express

Express General Freight

• ~21% of international air cargo traffic • ~79% of international air cargo traffic

• Includes first mile pickup and last mile delivery • Capacity is sold to freight forwarders

• Totalcontrol of logistics flow from shipper • Responsible for moving freight from airport
to consignee to airport
• Optimized air network around main and • Usually refers to larger, bulky shipments
regional hubs (more than 70 kg)
• Extensive ground network

• Usually documents and small packages

Source: OAG – May Schedule Sample

World Air Cargo Forecast 2022–2041 7

 Air Cargo Overview

General Freight Remains E-Commerce Distribution revolutionizing customer expectations

and air cargo logistics. Global
Strong Networks Expand e-commerce revenues are expected
General freight transport comprises Rapid expansion in e-commerce is to more than double pre-pandemic
the majority of total world air cargo, expected to boost air cargo growth. levels by 2026, reaching $8.1
including all goods shipped by air The complex logistics of e-commerce trillion—up from $3.4 trillion in 2019,
except mail products. General freight rely heavily on local postal systems, and five times higher than the $1.5
comprises 81% of worldwide revenue express networks, and, in some trillion spent in 2015. While domestic
tonne-kilometers, and is integral to the cases, extensive insourced distribution e-commerce business is often
global supply chain worldwide. Carriers networks managed by retailers. Air supported by large ground networks,
specializing in general freight generated cargo packages are generally not growth in cross-border e-commerce,
half of the world’s air cargo industry identified specifically as e-commerce as well as emerging markets without
revenues in 2021. by shippers, and airmail shipments well-established postal and ground
are typically bundled in bags with networks, will promote an increased
assorted documents and parcels. role for air cargo.
However, it is clear that e-commerce is

Express Carrier Air Cargo Share Growing Global E-Commerce Revenues Expected to Be More Than
Double Pre-Pandemic by 2024
250
10

Global E-commerce sales in USD (trillions)

200 $8.1
8 $7.5
RTKS (billions)

$6.9
150 $6.3
$5.7
6 $5.2
100 $4.5

4 $3.4
50

2
2001 2006 2011 2016 2021

International Express International Freight and Mail

Source: Cargo Facts Consulting, IATA, ICAO, US Department of Transportation

2019 2020 2021 2022F 2023F 2024F 2025F 2026F

Source: eMarketer June 2022

World Air Cargo Forecast 2022–2041 8

Air Cargo Overview

While e-commerce is a global • C

 ombination carriers leverage both
phenomenon, market size and growth dedicated main-deck freighters
vary by country. China represents and the belly capacity of extensive
the largest e-commerce market in passenger networks to provide
the world, after overtaking the United reliable air connections, particularly
States in 2013. In 2021, the Chinese to and from home markets and hubs.
market surpassed $2 trillion, more
• E
 xpress carriers operate main-deck
than double the United States market,
freighter fleets of all sizes to provide
which is estimated at $960 billion. The
time-definite services as well as
European market was roughly one third
general air cargo capability. Express
the size of China’s market, at $665
carriers typically utilize standard body
billion, in 2021. While currently much
and medium-widebody freighters to
smaller, many emerging markets such
support their hub operations.
as India and Brazil are now seeing high
growth and rapid network expansion.

Airline Business Models China’s E-Commerce Market: World’s Largest

Vary 2021 E-Commerce Revenues

Airlines adopt business models tailored 2,250

$2,029
to specific air cargo markets. Air cargo
operators fall into four main categories: 2,000

• B
 elly-only operators provide air 1,750
cargo capability within existing
1,500
passenger networks.
USD (billions)

1,250
• C
 argo specialists provide dedicated
$960
main-deck freighter capability for 1,000
general freight, charter operations,
and specialized loading and 750
$496
carriage capabilities. 500
$169 $144 $121
250 $68 $44 $19 $16

China USA European UK Japan South India Canada Russia Brazil

Union Korea
Sources: Cargo Facts Consulting, eMarketer, Shopify, US Census Bureau, and www.data.gotohui.com

World Air Cargo Forecast 2022–2041 9

Air Cargo Overview

Freighters Are Indispensable • Payload-range considerations on

Freighters Critical to Air Cargo Competition
passenger airplanes may limit cargo
Freighters are critical for airlines Airlines operating freighters generate 90% of industry cargo revenues
carriage, increasing the risk that
competing in air cargo markets. While
cargo will fail to arrive on time.
nearly half of the world’s air cargo has 90%
historically been carried in the bellies The COVID-19 pandemic highlighted
of passenger airplanes, freighters are the importance of main-deck freighters 10%
a key component of the customized in the global air transportation system.
scheduling and operations flexibility With high air cargo yields and greatly 11%
38%
that many air cargo customers need. reduced long-haul international
2021
As a result, airlines with main-deck networks, conditions were favorable
$170B
freighters in their fleets earn 90% of the for many airlines to use passenger
air cargo industry’s revenue. widebody fleets for cargo-only
Express Carrier
operations, in order to generate
While increasingly capable widebody 41% Combination Carrier
much-needed cash flow and industry
passenger airplanes helped the air All Cargo
capacity. These “preighters” replaced
cargo industry grow in the decade Passenger Belly Only
some of the capacity shortfall, and
preceding the pandemic, we expect
even (in some cases) generated Source: Cirium, US Department of Transportation, Airline data
dedicated freighters to continue to
quarterly profits for carriers, despite
carry at least 50% of the world’s air
minimal passenger operations. While
cargo traffic, even after long-haul Passenger Widebody Freighter Capacity Vacates the Market
long-haul passenger operations are still
passenger networks recover to pre- ‘Preighter’ share of scheduled air cargo capacity
recovering, enough passenger capacity
pandemic levels and beyond. There
has returned to most markets that
are several key reasons for freighter 30%
almost all preighter operations have
preference in air cargo flows:
been discontinued.
• Most passenger-belly capacity does 25%
In normal times, airplanes generate
not serve key cargo trade routes.
more revenue in passenger service.
• Twin-aisle passenger schedules However, the experience of the past 20%
often do not meet shipper timing two years has highlighted the value
needs. of cargo operations. For airlines 15%
looking to diversify risk and operations
• Freight forwarders prefer palletized
coming out of the pandemic, that
capacity, which is not available on 10%
experience has provided an incentive
single-aisle aircraft.
to incorporate cargo operations in their
• Passenger bellies cannot transport network and fleet planning. 5%
hazardous materials and project
cargo, two important sectors in air
Mar-20 Sep-20 Mar-21 Sep-21 Mar-22 Sep-22
cargo flows.
Source: IATA

World Air Cargo Forecast 2022–2041 10

Air Cargo Overview

Near-Term Dynamics Main-Deck Freighter Share Still Elevated

Air cargo capacity and yield trends
were severely disrupted by the 155

Cargo Capacity Index, 2019 = 100

pandemic, but are beginning to see 143
131
a return to longer-term trends. Before 122
the pandemic, nearly 50% of air
cargo worldwide was transported in 95
widebody passenger cargo holds. This
capacity virtually disappeared in March,
54 54
2020, as passenger widebody service 47
was suspended globally. Freighter
operators responded to this disruption
by operating at above-normal utilization
levels, delaying freighter retirements, Trans Pacific Trans Atlantic Asia–Europe Intra Asia
and bringing new and parked airplanes
Freighter Passenger WB Belly
into their fleets to compensate for the
cargo-hold shortfall. While overall air Source: FlightRadar24 Week 14–44 of 2022 compared to Week 14–44 of 2019

cargo capacity has regained 2019

levels, the ratio of main-deck freighter
capacity to belly capacity remains
elevated, with nearly two thirds of all Air Cargo Yields Climbed Rapidly in 2020 and 2021,
air cargo capacity being carried on Decoupling From Passenger Yields
main decks, as long-haul passenger
networks continue to rebuild. 160
148

In the decade prior to the pandemic, 140

Yield Index, 2006 = 100

air cargo yields averaged a 3% annual 120

decline. Falling oil prices in 2014,
declining fuel surcharges, and trade 100
dynamics contributed to the softer yield 80 71
environment.
60

40

20

2006 2011 2016 2021

Air Cargo Passenger

Source: AAPA, IATA, ICAO, US DOT, Airline data, Boeing

World Air Cargo Forecast 2022–2041 11

Air Cargo Overview

During the pandemic, air cargo

Global Yields Easing, But Still High
capacity disruption, strong air cargo
demand, and congested supply chains
all boosted air cargo yields well above $3.82/kg +108%
Global $3.29/kg +79%
long-term average rates. In 2021,
$1.84/kg
some flows saw rates that tripled pre-
pandemic averages. Yields are now $5.50/kg +127%
starting to fall as supply chains and Trans-Pacific $4.59/kg +89%
long-haul passenger networks recover, $2.43/kg
bringing air cargo belly capacity back
into the market. However, rates in the $2.97/kg +99%
Trans-Atlantic $2.99/kg +101%
third quarter of 2022 are still roughly
$1.49/kg
double the pre-pandemic averages.
Since March, 2022, higher fuel prices $4.77/kg +142%
have contributed to these elevated Eur-Asia $3.52/kg +78%
levels, but the overall supply-demand $1.97/kg
balance continues to be a key factor
in bringing additional capacity needs $1.00/kg $2.00/kg $3.00/kg $4.00/kg $5.00/kg $6.00/kg
back into air cargo markets. USD per Kilogram

With air cargo traffic volumes now Post-Pandemic Pandemic Pre-Pandemic

running near pre-pandemic levels, Pre-Pandemic = March 2018 to February 2020 | Pandemic = March 2020 to February 2022 | Post-Pandemic = March 2022 to present
and yields elevated, global air cargo Source: IATA CargoIS
revenues have reached all-time highs.
In 2021, air cargo revenues hit $170
billion, up from $100 billion in 2019. Air Cargo Revenues Exceed Pre-Pandemic Levels
Combination and all-cargo carriers
have seen the largest increases, with $180,000
both segments roughly doubling their $150,000
2019 revenues in 2021, while revenues
USD (millions)

for express and belly-only carriers $120,000

increased roughly 45% compared to $90,000
pre-pandemic levels.
$60,000

$30,000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Combination Carrier Express Carrier All Cargo Belly Only

World Air Cargo Forecast 2022–2041 12

 Air Cargo Overview

Long-Term Dynamics disrupted by production shutdowns in fourth-quarter 2022 than in fourth- Near-term metrics such as the
and uncertainties, the exchange of quarter 2019, and it surpassed the Purchasing Managers’ Index signal
The global economy and world trade
goods resumed quickly. Medical previous all-time high of 2018. stalling, if not declining, activity in the
have demonstrated long-term resilience
goods and protective equipment goods-producing sector. Forecasts for
despite near-term challenges. It has However, as 2022 drew to a close,
moved around the globe and, as both GDP growth and trade expansion
been a tumultuous two and a half years the outlook for growth and trade
lockdowns took their toll on in-person have been revised sharply downward.
since the COVID-19 pandemic brought became much less certain. Strong
service activities, consumers turned to Many advanced economies are
most activity to a halt. The shock demand for goods created friction in
purchases of goods instead. Industrial projected to experience a recession
turned out to be very deep, but it was supply chains, leading to price hikes
production and global trade were in 2023. As the pandemic recedes,
short-lived by historical standards. After and inflation. This, in turn, set central
higher than 2019 levels by the end of consumers are redirecting their
dropping 9% between fourth-quarter banks on the path to sharply tighter
2020. Growth continued for the global spending toward services, and high
2019 and fourth-quarter 2020, global monetary policies. Russia’s invasion
goods trade in 2021 and into 2022, as inflation could sap consumption overall.
GDP regained its pre-crisis peak by the of Ukraine has thrown commodity
consumer spending remained robust Goods consumption looks ready to
first quarter of 2021. and agricultural markets into turmoil,
and producing industries invested and normalize or even undershoot trend
and China’s stance toward COVID-19
Global trade in goods made an even expanded. As a result, the volume of rates, after a period of extraordinary
continues to disrupt trade flows and
more impressive comeback. Initially global trade was more than 8% higher growth. All this is likely to subdue
raise uncertainties about demand.

GDP and Trade Quick to Recover

115

110
Index: Q4 2019 = 100

105

100

95

90

85

Q4 2019 Q1 2020 Q2 2020 Q3 2020 Q4 2020 Q1 2021 Q2 2021 Q3 2021 Q4 2021 Q1 2022 Q2 2022
Trade GDP

World Air Cargo Forecast 2022–2041 13

Air Cargo Overview

near-term trade growth. On the other in their pursuit of global integration as well as substantial, established traders
hand, strong household balance sheets the key to higher standards of living. like China. Advanced economies
and solid labor markets continue to A case in point is the recent Regional remain foundational parts of the global
support demand in many economies. Comprehensive Economic Partnership economy. While GDP is expected to
In addition, the easing of supply chain trade agreement, which links grow at less than the global average,
frictions could release backed-up flows economies across Asia that account the size and economic breadth of these
of goods, and so introduce a near-term for about 30% of the world’s GDP. The markets makes them indispensable
tailwind. European Union, which continues to as traders of advanced goods and
advance free trade agreements as well, services, as well as destinations for the
The probable slowdown in economic
recently revealed that 2021 exports to exports of many emerging economies.
activity and trade will pose challenges.
preferential trade partners surpassed
Uncertainty about the extent of
€1 trillion for the first time.
rebalancing efforts and the speed of
subsequent recovery could increase Over the next 20 years, global Asian Economies Lead Global Growth
and linger into 2023. But growth and GDP is expected to grow 2.6% on Annual Real GDP Growth, 2022–2041
trade have proven resilient before. Most average. South Asia will lead the
experts predict a relatively shallow world with 5% growth, followed by South Asia 5.0%
recession, and trade remains a crucial China and Southeast Asia. Advanced
part of the global economy. The manufacturing and expanding China 4.3%
pandemic has shown how important consumer economies—key building
global linkages are for the provision blocks for global trade—will drive Southeast Asia 3.8%
of medical equipment and vaccines, growth for these regions. Trade is
as well as for the delivery of goods to expected to expand at 2.8% on Africa 3.1%
people and companies as they adjust average over the next 20 years, with
to changing external circumstances. essential contributions not only from Middle East 2.7%
Supply chains are diversifying, and South and Southeast Asia, but also
Global 2.6%
many emerging markets are undeterred from many developing countries, as
Latin America 2.5%

Oceania 2.4%

North America 2.0%

Europe 1.4%

Northeast Asia 1.1%

Source: S&P Global Intelligence, 3Q2022

World Air Cargo Forecast 2022–2041 14

Air Cargo Overview

A Prominent Role for primary interface between producers Strategic Supply Chain,
and shipping companies. Some
Structural Factors shipping companies now aim to
Logistics Innovations
Express networks are proliferating. compete in the freight-forwarder space Globally, the pandemic experience
E-commerce doubled its share of retail by developing their own full-service highlighted the risks of the just-in-time
sales over the past five years, and this solutions. For customers, the value supply chains that had evolved over
high growth rate was incorporated in propositions here are the elimination of the previous several decades. As labor
pre-pandemic forecasts. But, as with modal uncertainty and the de-risking shortages constrained both shipping
many things COVID-related, it was a of service levels. To provide this and manufacturing, single-source
trend that accelerated, with adoption integrated mobility of goods, some supply chains became points of failure.
rates taking a big jump during the shipping container and logistics As a result, many goods companies
pandemic. Today, consumers are companies are acquiring airplanes and logistics firms today are exploring
more acclimated to online shopping, to provide the promised range of diversified supply chains as a way of
and they have high expectations for service levels. mitigating future risk. If the past two
fast service. decades saw the pendulum swing
This trend suggests some aggregate toward reduced costs and greater
COVID pulled ahead pre-pandemic movement of shipping volumes from efficiency, the years ahead suggest a
forecasts and expectations with sea to air. While the volumes will not swing toward diversity and reliability.
container speed and reliability less likely be large relative to total global In the near future, supply chain
suited in some cases to serving the trade, even small shifts toward the resilience will be recognized as a key
demand. In addition to accelerating speed, reliability, and risk mitigation performance indicator.
growth, the global impact of the of air could be significant, considering
pandemic has boosted plans to that air cargo now represents only This trend likely will bolster air cargo
develop express networks in emerging about 1% of global trade volumes. demand for two reasons: First, air
markets—particularly China—and cargo’s flexibility and point-to-point
In addition to growth among service are ideal for multi-node supply
also has raised expectations for the
established logistics providers, markets chains. And, second, the pandemic
segment overall, particularly in the
around the world are seeing a range has demonstrated the value of air
standard-body and medium-widebody
of air cargo newcomers, including a cargo’s speed and reliability. As
freighter categories.
spurt of operations growth for smaller manufacturers and logistics providers
general-freight and express airlines. consider ways to diversify supply
New Players in the Air A fleet analysis in the fourth quarter chains, a range of transport modes is
Cargo Arena of 2022 revealed roughly 40 more likely to be one more instrument in the
operators than pre-pandemic. In toolbox for some commodities.
Some shipping companies are
addition, some belly-only operators
exploring a shift to more vertically
have added main-deck freighters
integrated operational strategies.
to their fleets, in efforts to diversify
Historically, freight forwarders were the
revenues.

World Air Cargo Forecast 2022–2041 15

Air Cargo Overview

Multiple Drivers of Growth Multiple, Complex Factors Influence Markets

A range of issues beyond cyclical
economic trends influence air cargo
Industry Structure
market growth forecasts. Among them
are modal competition, globalization, • Air & Service Labor Constraints • Manufacturing Relocation & Diversification • New Commodities
market liberalization, and new air- • Directional Imbalances • Modal Competition • Shipper Utilization
• E-commerce Growth • Network Development • Supply Chain Logistics Development
eligible commodities.
Complementing the 2.6% long-term Regulatory
economic growth outlook, trade and
• Airport Operational Curfews • Market Liberalization • Trade Quotas & Restrictions
industrial production will be key drivers
• Environmental Regulations • New Trade Relationships
for air cargo growth. We forecast that
trade will outpace economic growth,
increasing 2.8%, and that industrial Economic
production will grow 2.2%, both • Currency Revaluations • Geopolitical Dynamics • Oil/Fuel Prices & Availability
annually, over the next two decades. • Export Promotion • National Development Programs • Regional GDP Growth
These economic factors, as well as
the regulatory and industry structure
dynamics highlighted above, support
Boeing’s forecast that air cargo traffic, Air Cargo Traffic to Double Over Next Two Decades
measured in revenue tonne kilometers, Average Annual Growth, 2022–2041
will grow an average of 4.1% annually
from 2022 to 2041. 800

700 4.4%
4.1%
600 3.6%
RTKS (billions)

500

400

300

200
History Forecast
100 3.6% 4.1%
growth per year growth per year
2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041
High Base Low

World Air Cargo Forecast 2022–2041 16

Air Cargo Overview

East Asian markets lead the global air average annual growth. Driving America and Transatlantic air cargo
cargo forecast in both volumes and this shift will be increasing goods flows will round out the top five markets
growth rates. Today, the Transpacific production and booming consumer by the end of the forecast period, with
and Europe-to-East Asia air cargo markets. Industrial production, trade, large markets today but slower growth
flows are the largest. By the end of and express-market growth are rates due to the more mature market
the forecast period, the intra-East Asia forecast to propel traffic growth of dynamics of Europe and the United
region will become the third largest 5.3% in the domestic China market, States.
global market, up from the number-five the second fastest-growing flow in
position in 2021, with 5.7% projected our 20-year forecast. The intra-North

East Asia Markets Will Lead Regional Traffic Will Diversify

Annual Market Share by Airline Domicile
Growth
East Asia–North America 4.4%

East Asia–Europe 4.5%

Intra-East Asia 5.7% 2021 Air Asia Pacific: 31%

Cargo Traffic
North America: 27%
North America 3.1% 285B
RTKs Europe: 20%
Middle East: 13%
Europe–North America 2.3% Russia and Central Asia: 5%
Latin America: 2%
Domestic China 5.3%
Africa: 2%

Europe–Latin America 3.9% Source: IATA, ICAO, US DOT, Airline data, Boeing

Africa–Europe 3.2%

South Asia–Europe 4.9%

Latin America–North America 2.4%

Middle East–Europe 2.3%

Intra-Europe 2.5%

0 30 60 90 120 150 180

RTKs (billions)
2021 2022–2041

World Air Cargo Forecast 2022–2041 17

Air Cargo Overview

Since 2000, carriers based in the

Asian Airlines Lead Scheduled Air Freight
Middle East have leveraged their
geographic position at the crossroads
300
of Africa, Asia, and Europe. Middle
East carriers quickly expanded their 250
widebody passenger and freighter

RTKS (billions)
fleets, which allowed them to increase 200
their share of world air cargo traffic
150
from 4% in 1999 to 13% in 2021. In
2021, airlines based in East Asia, 100
Europe, North America, and the
Middle East accounted for 91% of 50
all world air cargo traffic. In charter
traffic, North American airlines are 2001 2005 2009 2013 2017 2021
the leading providers. Russia and Central Asia North America Middle East Latin America
Europe Asia Pacific Africa
Growing domestic markets and
intra-regional flows are the key drivers Sources: IATA, ICAO, US DOT, Airline data, Boeing
for the deployment of standard-body
and medium-widebody freighters,
while the longer-haul intercontinental North American Airlines Lead Charter Freight
flows, typified by the top three regions
(Transpacific, Transatlantic, and 45
Europe–Asia), will be the primary 40
users of large-body freighters. These 35
RTKS (billions)

dynamics underpin the Boeing freighter 30

fleet forecast. 25
20
15
10
5

2001 2005 2009 2013 2017 2021

Russia and Central Asia North America Middle East Latin America
Europe Asia Pacific Africa

Sources: IATA, ICAO, US DOT, Airline data, Boeing. 2021 data preliminary and may include some preighter operations.

World Air Cargo Forecast 2022–2041 18

Africa For the purposes of this forecast, we define Africa as the entire continent of
Africa plus the nations of Cape Verde, the Comoros Islands, Madagascar,
Mauritius, Mayotte, Réunion, São Tomé and Príncipe, and the Seychelles.

Nairobi, Kenya
World Air Cargo Forecast 2022–2041 19
Africa

Five Countries Lead African of outbound air cargo traffic, while South Africa (15%), Nigeria (11%), and
Highlights more import traffic comes into the Ethiopia (11%). Of these, South Africa
International Air Trade North Africa subregion. However, experienced the greatest growth over
• In 2021, air cargo moved by Most African international air trade traffic in this direction is more widely 2020, improving 34% in international air
Africa-domiciled carriers grew is conducted by a small number of spread across all subregions. Central freight. Overall, African air cargo traffic
by 10% over 2019 levels. economies. Africa represents the smallest share of bounced back from pandemic-driven
Year-to-date growth (through
Africa can be divided into five distinct traffic in both directions and is heavily lows in 2020, growing 20% in 2021.
August, 2022) has improved
economic subregions: North Africa, dependent on imports.
to 12% against 2019, despite
minimal improvement in cargo Southern Africa, East Africa, West As of 2021, leading international air
capacity. Africa, and Central Africa. The East cargo markets on the African continent
Africa subregion has the largest share included Kenya (18%), Egypt (16%),
• Africa’s air cargo market is
still predominantly driven by
the trade flow with Europe,
with perishables defining Kenya, Egypt, South Africa, Ethiopia, and Nigeria Lead African International
the northbound traffic, and Air Cargo Handled; East Africa Is Largest Subregion
consumables and industrial
71%
goods driving the other 23%
direction. North Africa
• Continued demand for 18%
29%
perishables in advanced
economies, growing foreign 2021
investment in African regions, 2,070,000 Kenya
16%
and a growing number of International Egypt
working-age consumers tonnes
South Africa
11%
are some of the key drivers Nigeria
behind annual growth 15% 20%
11% Ethiopia 37%
West Africa
projections of 3.2% and 5.4% Other East Africa
over the next 20 years for the
Europe and East-Asia markets
3%
respectively.
Central Africa

17%
Source: ACI Southern Africa

World Air Cargo Forecast 2022–2041 20

Africa

Established Relationships resources, Africa continues to draw

Europe Gained Ground Lost During the Pandemic, as a Mature Trade
Chinese enterprises seeking new raw
Drive African Air Trade materials to fuel the country’s industrial
Relationship Proved More Resilient
Patterns expansion. 3.5
The Africa–Europe market accounts for Trade among African nations was 3.0M
approximately 2.7% of global air cargo estimated at 326,000 tonnes for 3.0
tonnage and 2.8% of global air cargo 2021, which accounts for 11% of the 2.7M

Airborne Metric Tonnes (millions)

traffic in tonne-kilometers. total Africa cargo market. When we 2.5
Based on regional air trade and airport include domestic traffic, intra-Africa 2.1M
53%
statistics, overall African air trade was trade accounts for 14% of the total 47%
2.0
estimated at 3.0 million tonnes in 2021. market. Despite some loss of traction
While East Asia, Middle East, and during the pandemic, new free-trade 49%
Intra-Africa flows are critical markets and air-service agreements (such as 1.5
for the region, Europe accounts for the African Continental Free Trade 21% 20%
53% of African cargo and commands Area and Single African Air Transport 1.0 19%
the majority of Africa’s international air Market measures) encourage operators
trade, largely because of its proximity to develop new intra-Africa air cargo
0.5
and long-standing historical and lanes. Implementation is key to
investment ties. stimulating more economic growth
within the continent. In addition, 2011 2019 2021
Asia’s share of Africa’s international current ground infrastructure limitations
air trade suffered a bit during the will continue to drive a special need Europe East Asia Intra-Africa Middle East Other
pandemic, but remains the next largest for air cargo within Africa, because Source: S&P GTA, ACI, and Boeing analysis
at 20% in 2021. Growing Chinese development projects are limited by
investment and commercial ties to the difficulty of securing substantial
Africa are the principal drivers of financial investments.
growth in this market. Rich in natural

World Air Cargo Forecast 2022–2041 21

Africa

Africa–Europe Traffic Traffic Between Africa and Europe Saw a Boost During the Pandemic Growing 27% in 2021
Air cargo flows between Africa and
Europe grew over the past decade. 1,800 4.2% growth

Air Cargo Traffic, Tonnes (thousands)

Traffic from Africa to Europe 1,600
experienced volatile growth over the 1,400
last decade, averaging 5.6% per year
1,200
since 2011, growing 30% in 2021, and
even growing 3% in 2020, despite 1,000
the pandemic. Europe-to-Africa air
800
flows showed similar volatility, yet
averaged a lower growth rate of 2.6% 600
per year since 2011. Air cargo imports 400
from Europe contracted in 2020
by 7% before rebounding in 2021, 200
with growth of 24%. The directional
2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021
imbalance between Africa-to-Europe
and Europe-to-Africa is relatively small, Africa to Europe: 5.6% Europe to Africa: 2.6%
although northbound trade is steadily Source: S&P GTA, US Department of Commerce, ACI and Boeing analysis
growing into a majority, most recently
representing 56% in 2021.

East Africa Dominates Exports to Europe; West Africa Takes More Imports

5% 7%
9% 16%

10%
Share of Exports 31% Share of Imports
Africa to Europe to 24%
57% East Africa
Europe Africa
19%
North Africa
Southern Africa
West Africa
22%
Central Africa

World Air Cargo Forecast 2022–2041 22

Africa

Traffic between Africa and Europe

Perishables Drive African Exports to Europe; Fresh-Cut Flowers Out of East Africa Top the List
depends heavily on the strong
perishables trade. In the northbound Africa to Europe
direction (Africa to Europe), perishable 880,000 Tonnes
traffic is largely driven by fresh-cut
Perishables 83%
flowers (48%), most of which are
produced within the East Africa Metals and Metal Products 8%
subregion. In the Europe-to-Africa
direction, the commodity mix is Machinery and Electrical Equipment 2%
more balanced, with machinery and
electrical equipment representing Textiles, Leather, and Apparel 2%
the largest category. Other industrial
goods, however, play a large role in air Glass and Non-Metallic Products 1%
cargo traffic—particularly chemicals
and related goods, a category in Chemicals and Related Products 1%
which pharmaceutical goods make up
39%. An interesting development for Other 3%
2021 can be seen in the import of art
Source: S&P GTA Dashboard
and collectors’ pieces from Europe,
which is up significantly from previous
reported years. Large Spike in Imported Art During the Pandemic Was Behind Changes in Commodity Mix

Europe to Africa
689,000 Tonnes

Machinery and Electrical Equipment 20%

Chemicals and Related Products 18%

Art, Collectors’ Pieces 13%

Perishables 12%

Computers, Office, Communications,

9%
and Professional Equipment

Metals and Metal Products 6%

Wood, Paper, and Related Products 4%

Other 18%

Source: S&P GTA Dashboard

World Air Cargo Forecast 2022–2041 23

 Africa

Africa–East Asia Traffic from China—will continue to drive

these markets. Air cargo flows are
Africa–East Asia air cargo trade is
significantly imbalanced, with nearly
driven by continued Asian investment
four times as much Asian air cargo
and African consumer demand.
entering as leaving Africa. Compared
The developing Africa–East Asia air to Europe, Central Africa represents
cargo market has increased 3.9% a bigger part of the exports to East
per year on average in the past Asia, although East Africa still exports
decade. Capital investments in African the most outbound goods. Inbound
extractive industries, and growing trade between the regions is more
African economies that demand concentrated in the West Africa
more consumer goods—especially subregion.

Traffic Between Africa and East Asia Experienced a Less Robust Central Africa Plays a Bigger Role in Exports to East Asia;
Snapback in 2021, Growing Only 9% YOY West Africa Is Largest Importer

700 3.9% growth

Air Cargo Traffic, Tonnes (thousands)

7%
600 23% 23%
30%

500
Share of Exports Share of Imports

400 6% Africa to 40%

East Asia
East Africa
East Asia to Africa 16% North Africa
300
15% Southern Africa
26% West Africa
200 14%
Central Africa
100

2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021

Africa to East Asia: 6.0% East Asia to Africa: 3.4%

Sources: S&P GTA, US Department of Commerce, ACI and Boeing analysis

World Air Cargo Forecast 2022–2041 24

Africa

Traffic moving from East Asia into

Industrial Goods and Apparel Top List of Traded Commodities From East Asia to Africa in 2021
Africa consists of a wide variety of
commodities, mostly finished and East Asia to Africa
industrial goods. Machinery and 465,000 Tonnes
electrical equipment represent the Machinery and Electrical Equipment 20%
largest share of imported traffic,
followed closely by textiles, leather, Textiles, Leather, and Apparel 19%
and apparel, with the bulk of that
(39%) being footwear and apparel. Chemicals and Related Products 12%
Chemicals and related products, as Computers, Office, Communications,
well as computers and professional 10%
and Professional Equipment
equipment, make up a large portion
Perishables 6%
of imported goods, evidence of East
Asia’s—primarily China’s—industrial Metals and Metal Products 6%
and commercial investment in the
continent. Of the chemicals and related Glass and Non-Metallic Products 4%
products category imported from
East Asia, 34% of it is pharmaceutical Transportation Equipment and Parts 2%
goods. Eastbound trade (Africa to
East Asia) is heavily driven by natural Other 21%
resources, with metals and metal
Source: S&P GTA Dashboard
products and perishables accounting
for nearly three quarters of the traffic.
Natural Resources Drive African Exports to East Asia

Africa to East Asia

125,000 Tonnes

Metals and Metal Products 38%

Perishables 35%

Energy and Mining 12%

Textiles, Leather, and Apparel 4%

Chemicals and Related Products 4%

Machinery and Electrical Equipment 3%

Other 5%

Source: S&P GTA Dashboard

World Air Cargo Forecast 2022–2041 25
Africa

Africa’s Working Age Population Growing Significantly Africa Forecasts

Driven by developing economies,
rich natural resources and a rapidly
growing working-age population, Africa
represents an opportune market for
1,088m Africa
industrialization and air cargo growth.
Overall, air cargo trade between Africa
and Europe will grow 3.2% per year,
China 895m while Africa–East Asia air cargo trade
995m India will expand at an average annual
growth rate of 5.4%.

India 686m

805m China

Africa 486m

456m Southeast Asia

Europe 460m

Latin America
440m
Southeast Asia 351m and Carribbean

Latin America 398m Europe

338m
and Carribbean

North America 210m 231m North America

2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041

Source: UN Probabilistic Population Projections, 2022

World Air Cargo Forecast 2022–2041 26

Africa

Both directions in the Africa–Europe

The Africa–Europe Market Will Grow 3.2% per Year
market will grow at relatively similar
rates. The Africa-to-Europe market Average Annual Growth, 2022–2041
is expected to average 3.3% growth
4,000
per year. European economic growth,
African economic diversification into 3,500 3.9%
manufactured products, and continued 3.2%

Tonnes (thousands)
3,000
moderate growth in African perishables 2.7%
are assumed in the baseline forecast 2,500
for this air-trade flow. 2,000

A slightly lower level of growth is 1,500

forecast for the Europe-to-Africa History Forecast
1,000
market, at 3.2%. This is mainly due to 4.2% 3.2%
higher growth, observed in 2021, 500 growth per year growth per year
which created a greater base year.
2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041
From a 2019 base, this flow is expected
High Base Low
to grow 3.6% per year. The base
growth-rate forecast reflects African
consumer buying power for goods
Chinese Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) Has Grown Rapidly, Approaching US Investment Levels
that arrive by air, as well as increased
investment in industries that depend Chinese FDI vs US FDI to Africa, Stock Chinese Loans by Subregion and Sector
on air cargo for time-critical shipments.
80 70

Unadjusted US Dollars (billions)

As the manufacturing base in Africa 61.4B
Unadjusted US Dollars (billions)

continues to develop, the diversity of 70 60

inbound air cargo should increase,
60 50
reducing its vulnerability to swings in
commodity prices. 50 40 33.0B
25.3B
40 30 22.9B

20 14.7B
30
10
20

10 Central East West Southern North

Africa Africa Africa Africa Africa
90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 Transport Mining Water
China – 43.4B U.S. – 47.5B Power ICT Other

Source: John Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies – China Source: Boston University Development Policy Center –
Africa Research Initiative Chinese Loans to Africa Database

World Air Cargo Forecast 2022–2041 27

Africa

Growth in African air trade with East Follow-on investment by China in

Asia will be driven principally by Asian African extractive industries and
imports into the continent. China’s infrastructure, combined with
foreign direct investment (FDI) in Africa continuing urbanization and rising
grew at a rate of 12% per year between demand for consumer goods in Africa,
2011 and 2020, while, during the same will propel East Asia-to-Africa air trade
period, U.S. FDI contracted an average growth at a rate of 5.7% per year for
of 2% per year. the forecast period. Conversely, Africa-
to-Asia air cargo trade will expand at a
By implementing Prosper Africa
slower rate of 4% per year, with higher
measures and U.S.–Africa strategy
growth expected later in the forecast
proposals, the U.S. hopes to counter
period as Africa slowly develops
growing Chinese investment and
industrial ties with East Asia.
geopolitical influence in the region. It
is difficult to conclude that the recent
growth of U.S. FDI in 2020 is a result
of these initiatives. Analysis of data The Africa–East Asia Market Will Grow 5.4% per Year
on loans from China to Africa shows
2,000
that the majority of lending is directed 5.8%
to the Central Africa subregion, with 5.4%
most of that money channeled toward 1,600
4.6%
the mining sector. Transport, power,
Tonnes (thousands)

mining, information and communication

technologies, and water are the sectors 1,200
borrowing the most in U.S. dollars.

800

400 History Forecast

3.9% 5.4%
growth per year growth per year

2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041

High Base Low

World Air Cargo Forecast 2022–2041 28

Domestic
China

Shanghai
World Air Cargo Forecast 2022–2041 29
Domestic China

Market Overview At 4.5 million tonnes transported China’s domestic air cargo market
Highlights China is the world’s manufacturing
annually, the domestic China air cargo grew 2.3% in 2021, after a decline
market is second only to that of the of 10.9% in 2020. For the first six
• C
 hina is the world’s largest colossus, with key industries producing
United States. China’s market grew months of 2022, China’s domestic air
e-commerce market, valued commodities in such categories as
6.2% annually over the past 20 years cargo traffic also declined, by 27%,
at more than $2 trillion in apparel, automotive, computing, and
and, as the shift toward a consumer mostly due to the ongoing impacts of
2021. telecommunication equipment. Most
economy continues, air cargo demand China’s COVID-19 policies. But China’s
of these goods are intended for export
• D
 omestic air cargo traffic in will further expand. Air cargo activity economic growth is forecast to reach
and have traditionally been transported
China declined 27% in the is concentrated in the coastal and 3.8% and 4.9% for 2022 and 2023,
by air. Domestic China’s air cargo
first half of 2022 due to the southern provinces, home to the bulk respectively.
traffic has grown by 6.2% annually over
continuing impacts of China’s of the country’s 1.4 billion people and
the last two decades. It accounts for
COVID-19 policies. its $15.4-trillion economy.
7.5% of the world’s air cargo traffic by
• H
 igh-speed rail freight service tonnage, and for 2.3% of the global air
shows potential, especially cargo market in tkm. Domestic China Air Cargo Grew 6.2% per Year Since 2001
in providing additional cargo
capacity during peak times, The Stimulus of Consumer 5,000
complementary to air cargo
service. Demand 4,500
Tremendous increases in air trade with
• L
 ed by e-commerce and countries throughout Asia, Europe, 4,000
express markets, domestic air and North America have long been
trade in China will grow 5.3% major drivers of growth in domestic 3,500
annually.

Tonnes (thousands)
Chinese air cargo traffic. During the
3,000
past decade, consumer demand in
China’s rapidly developing cities has
2,500
become another important stimulus, as
China shifts to a consumption-driven 2,000
economy. The service/consumption
sector now contributes more than 53% 1,500
of China’s GDP.
1,000

500

2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021

Source: CAAC

World Air Cargo Forecast 2022–2041 30

Domestic China

E-Commerce Spurs Growth Consequently, in 2021 more than 105 How HSR Could The expansion of HSR service brings
billion parcels had to be moved— an us to the question of freight transport.
Rapidly expanding e-commerce and
increase of 28.3% per year from
Complement Air Freight Strong growth in the e-commerce and
express markets are major growth
2016 through 2021. China’s airlines Meanwhile, China boasts the express-cargo markets illustrates the
drivers for domestic air cargo. In
responded by growing their freighter world’s longest, most heavily used need to deliver goods rapidly. At $2.03
fact, China boasts the world’s largest
fleet by 63% over the same period. By high-speed rail (HSR) network. Built trillion, China commands the world’s
e-commerce market, valued at more
year’s end, 2021, 143 freighters were over the past 14 years, the network largest e-commerce market, which has
than $2 trillion in 2021, a rise of 19.1%
operating to meet China’s domestic connects most major cities with nearly grown 21% per year over the last five
over 2020. During the past ten years,
e-commerce and express-market 40,000 kilometers of track—not all years.
its annual growth rate has been 30%,
demand. This buildup primarily of it concentrated in the coastal and
about 1.8 times the 17% rate of the US. Research shows that the HSR
consisted of standard-body and southern provinces. That stretch of
passenger network actually could
The pandemic dramatically accelerated medium-widebody freighters, which track could double by 2035 under a
provide a foundation for HSR
e-commerce growth as consumers make up 77% of the China-domiciled plan recently announced by the state-
freight development, especially on
shopped online to avoid COVID-19 freighter fleet. owned China Railway Group.
exposure. For 2021, combined sales
by Alibaba and JD.com set a record
of $139 billion—64% over 2020. China’s Online Retail Sales Have Passed $2 Trillion
Alibaba Singles’ Day sales in 2021
reached $84.5 billion, an increase of 2,500
14% in comparison with the previous
30%
year. Purchases during JD.com’s
Online retail sales (USD billions)

2,000 growth per year

618 Shopping Festival amounted to
US$53.8 billion, an increase of more
than 30% over 2020. Sales of luxury
1,500
goods increased by 40% over the
prior year. Interestingly, consumers
purchased US$46.9 million worth of 17%
1,000 growth per year
iPhones in the first few minutes after
they went on sale on November 1.
500

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

USA China

Source: US Census Bureau and www.data.gotohui.com

World Air Cargo Forecast 2022–2041 31

Domestic China

high-density routes during peak This HSR freight service may at first
China’s GDP Is Expected to Increase 2.3 Times in the Next 20 Years
periods. But HSR freight service faces be limited to a few dense lanes that
significant challenges. support local express-package traffic 40,000
demand. But, eventually, given China’s
For example, HSR in China is primarily
strong e-commerce and express 35,000
designed for passenger traffic, not
market growth, HSR freight services

China GDP (USD, billions)

freight. Although freight has been 30,000
could complement the air cargo
carried in vacant HSR passenger
business. 25,000
carriages, passenger traffic constrains History
operating time and service schedules. Context: Outpacing the 20,000 6.2%
And even this qualified freight service growth per year
is limited to small or light cargo by the Average 15,000 Forecast
weight limits of infrastructure designed 4.2%
China’s GDP is forecast to grow 4.2% 10,000 growth per year
for passenger trains. per year and increase 2.3 times over
Other infrastructure concerns the next 20 years. China currently 5,000

include platforms that lack freight accounts for 58% of all East Asia GDP
access or transshipment facilities; and is projected to account for 66% 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041

widely separated stations and parcel by 2041. For this forecast, base-, low-, Source: S&P GTA
distribution centers; and stations and high-growth GDP models were
without cargo warehouses, stacking developed to forecast domestic China
areas, machinery for loading and air cargo growth. The low- and high- Domestic China Air Cargo Traffic Will Grow 5.3% per Year
unloading, or large-scale sorting growth air cargo scenarios reflect GDP
Average Annual Growth, 2022–2041
facilities. projections for 0.5% below and 0.5%
above the baseline GDP per capita 16,000
What’s more, on the business side, growth, respectively. 6.0%
dedicated high-speed freight lines 14,000
would require significant volume Overall, domestic China air trade will 5.3%
guarantees from mail and parcel grow 5.3% annually for the forecast 12,000 4.6%
delivery companies or other shippers. period, with most rapid growth in
the first half and some slowing in 10,000
Tonnes

So, over all, the present passenger- the second half, in conjunction with 8,000 History
dedicated system will need to be growth rates. 6.2%
fundamentally transformed, emerging 6,000 growth per year
as a mixed passenger-freight service.
4,000 Forecast
5.3%
2,000 growth per year

2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041

High Base Low

World Air Cargo Forecast 2022–2041 32

East Asia– For the purposes of this forecast, we define East Asia as Australia, Cambodia,
North America China, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, Macau, Malaysia, New Zealand, the
Philippines, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, and Vietnam. We
define North America as Canada and the United States.

Seoul, South Korea

World Air Cargo Forecast 2022–2041 33
East Asia–North America

Market Overview from 2.8 million tonnes in 2020 to 3.5

Highlights The East Asia–North America market
million tonnes in 2021. Westbound air
freight volumes from North America
• The transpacific air cargo represents 23.1% of the world’s air
to East Asia increased from 1.4 million
market has grown by nearly cargo in tonne-kilometers and 9.2%
tonnes in 2020 to 1.9 million tonnes in
30% since 2019, but growth in tonnage. Over all, the market grew
2021.
slowed in the first half of 2022 1.3% and 27.9% in 2020 and 2021,
due to COVID-19 restrictions, respectively. Air freight in the East Asia-
economic headwinds, and to-North America direction increased
supply chain challenges.
• China, Japan, Taiwan, and
South Korea remain the top East Asia–North America Air Freight Market Grew 28% in 2021
Asian air cargo markets,
collectively responsible for 2020 Year-Over-Year Growth
roughly 70% of total volumes. -25% -15% -5% 5% 15% 25%
Vietnam is the fastest growing 100%
market and is now the fifth Cambodia
largest.
80%
• Economic fundamentals,
Macau
2021 Year-Over-Year Growth

supply chain diversification, Indonesia Thailand

and manufacturing Taiwan
60% South Korea
Japan
investment throughout Asia
Vietnam
are key drivers behind the China Malaysia
4.4% annual growth projected 40% Singapore
for the East Asia–North New Zealand
America flow. Australia
20% Hong Kong
Philippines

-20%
Source: US Department of Commerce and IHS S&P Global

World Air Cargo Forecast 2022–2041 34

East Asia–North America

The United States accounts for

East Asia–North America Air Freight Grew 2.5% for First Half of 2022
nearly 90% of the overall air trade
market between East Asia and North Monthly Change in Air Cargo Tonnage Year Over Year
America. U.S. monthly market activity
100%
can therefore approximate the overall
transpacific market. During the first six
months of 2022, overall East Asia–U.S. 80%
air cargo traffic grew 2.5%, compared
with the first six months of 2021.
Traffic grew 1.8% and 2.8% in the 60%
U.S.-to-East Asia and East Asia-to-U.S.
directions, respectively.
40%
For the first quarter, U.S.–East Asia
air cargo traffic grew 12.7%, with
U.S. imports growing 13.7% and 20%
U.S. exports growing 11.1%. Further
COVID outbreaks leading to additional
restrictions in a number of countries, a 0%
rise in inflation, and high energy prices
resulted in a U.S.–East Asia air cargo
traffic decline of 6.4% in the second -20%
quarter of 2022.
-40%

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
United States to East Asia East Asia to United States

Source: US Department of Commerce

World Air Cargo Forecast 2022–2041 35

East Asia–North America

China Accounts for 46% of Transpacific Air Cargo Market Country Market Shares
East Asia-to-North America North America-to-East Asia
Vary Widely
The China–North America air cargo
Other: 11% Other: 13% market grew 7.4% and 15% in
2020 and 2021, respectively. China
China : 30%
Thailand: 5% continues to represent the largest air
Taiwan: 6% cargo market in the East Asia–North
South Korea: 4% America market; its market share rose
3,500,000 Australia: 6% 1,900,000 from 20% in 2001 to 43% in 2011, and
Taiwan: 8% Tonnes
China : 54%
Tonnes stood at 46% in 2021. This increased
Singapore: 8%
Chinese dominance led to a decline
Vietnam: 7% Hong Kong: 8%
in Japan’s share from 28% in 2001 to
16% in 2011 and 13% in 2021.
Japan: 11% South Korea: 13% Japan: 16%
Vietnam is the fastest growing air
Source: US Department of Commerce and IHS Markit
cargo market, expanding 20.6% per
year over the past 20 years. Vietnam’s
market share has increased from 0.3%
in 2001 to 5.2% in 2021, and now
China Market Remains Dominant; Vietnam Grew Significantly Over Two Decades accounts for 7% of the East Asia-to-
North America market.
% Share % Share
28.3% Japan China 45.7%
20.3% China Japan 13.0%
11.4% Taiwan Taiwan 7.4%
8.1% South Korea South Korea 7.1%
6.4% Singapore Vietnam 5.2%
6.2% Hong Kong Thailand 4.5%
5.0% Malaysia Singapore 3.5%
3.8% Australia Malaysia 3.3%
3.6% Thailand Australia 3.1%
2.7% Philippines Hong Kong 3.1%
2.2% Indonesia Indonesia 1.6%
1.0% New Zealand Philippines 1.2%
<1% Macau New Zealand <1%
<1% Vietnam Cambodia <1%
<1% Cambodia Macau <1%
<1% Laos Laos <1%

2001 2011 2021

Source: US Department of Commerce and S&P Global

World Air Cargo Forecast 2022–2041 36

East Asia–North America

Drivers of Eastbound vs. Consumer Goods Drive Eastbound Transpacific Flow;

Westbound Flow Manufacturing Materials Drive Westbound Flow
Four commodity categories account for East Asia-to-North America
75% of East Asia-to-North America air 3,500,000 Tonnes
cargo traffic: apparel; computers and Computers, Office, Communications
26%
communication equipment; machinery and Professional Equipment
and electrical equipment; documents
Machinery and Electrical Equipment 22%
and small packages. In the opposite
direction, nearly 50% of all traffic falls Documents and Small Packages 16%
into two categories: machinery and
electrical equipment; chemicals and Textiles, Leather, and Apparel 11%
related products.
Chemicals and Related Products 8%
East Asian exports to North America
grew 6.2% and 24.4% in 2020 and Metals and Metal Products 3%
2021, respectively. Communication
equipment; chemicals and related Transportation Equipment and Parts 3%
products; machinery and electrical
equipment; and documents and small Miscellaneous 11%
packages grew 20.2%, 25.7%, 43.5%,
and 22%, respectively. Textiles, leather,
and apparel declined 17%. North America-to-East Asia
1,900,000 Tonnes
North American exports to East
Asia grew 34.7% in 2021, after a Machinery and Electrical Equipment 24%
decline of 7.2% in 2020. Office
and communication equipment Chemicals and Related Products 23%
grew 21%; chemicals and related
Documents and Small Packages 12%
products grew 71.1%; machinery and
electrical equipment grew 33.5%; Vegetable Products 12%
and documents and small packages
grew 36.8%. Vegetables and animal Computers, Office, Communications
11%
and Professional Equipment
products grew 34% in the same period.
Animal Products 9%

Textiles, Leather, and Apparel 3%

Miscellaneous 6%

Source: S&P Global and US Department of Commerce

World Air Cargo Forecast 2022–2041 37

East Asia–North America

Growth for East Asia–North strategies in manufacturing. While

East Asia-to-North America Air Cargo Traffic Will Grow 4.3% per Year
China remains the market-leading
America Traffic giant in manufacturing across East Average Annual Growth, 2021–2041
Total air tonnage on the transpacific Asia, companies are beginning
route is determined by the combined 10.0 5.1%
to incorporate “China Plus One”
economic activities of North American strategies, in which investment in 4.3%
and East Asian countries, international manufacturing becomes increasingly 8.0
3.5%

Tonnes (millions)
trade patterns, and the various types attractive in other Asian regions.
of trade commodities. Economic 6.0
growth in the importing region primarily Alongside the China-plus-one strategy
determines directionality, but flow is is the desire for East Asian countries
to relocate their manufacturing 4.0
also influenced by exchange rates,
which affect the cost of imported domestically. Both Taiwan and Japan
History Forecast
goods in national currencies. are offering subsidies and assistance 2.0
4.9% 4.3%
to bring high-tech manufacturing growth per year growth per year
As COVID moves from a pandemic back home. Taiwan has implemented
2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041
to an endemic, much of its impact an “Invest Taiwan” initiative that
continues, affecting the growth offers attractive loans to motivate High Base Low
forecast for air trade between East manufacturing relocation, and Japan
Asia and North American. According has allocated ¥2.2 billion to shift
to China’s Global Times, air transport production back to domestic plants. North America-to-East Asia Air Cargo Traffic Will Grow 4.4% per Year
costs rose more than 30% in 2020, Average Annual Growth, 2021–2041
compared to pre-pandemic levels, External investment is also increasing
but air freight demand continues to in East Asian countries. Vietnam
6.0
accelerate, despite rising cost and and Malaysia are experiencing 5.2%
supply chain crises (due to COVID development booms in high-value 5.0 4.4%
disruptions), coupled with a boom manufacturing, and Thailand,
Tonnes (millions)
in demand. Indonesia, Singapore, and South Korea 4.0
3.5%
are becoming increasingly attractive
The COVID pandemic, and for manufacturing of other goods 3.0
subsequent supply-chain disruptions such as automotive parts, machinery,
across the globe, have accelerated pharmaceuticals, and packaged 2.0
some companies’ diversification goods. History Forecast
1.0 1.8% 4.4%
growth per year growth per year
2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041
High Base Low

World Air Cargo Forecast 2022–2041 38

East Asia–North America

Despite booming demand and efforts North American exports to East Asia Asia’s fast-growing middle class
to relocate manufacturing domestically, grew at a lackluster rate of 1.8% over is driving demand and shaping
China remains competitive—and the last decade, due not only to the consumption patterns across sectors
the fastest-growing market for economic slowdown, but also to that range from travel to luxury goods
manufacturing investment, a position disasters that included Japan’s 2011 to food, where consumption trends
that contributes significantly to forecast tsunami and nuclear catastrophe. emphasize health and sustainability.
growth in air trade among East Asian Record flooding in Malaysia, Thailand, As an example, food-related products
and North American routes. According and Indonesia during 2014 and 2015, like beef, fish, pork, and vegetables
to the United Nations Conference on which displaced 367,000 people, also increased from 15% in 2011 to 20%,
Trade and Development, foreign direct hampered growth. as a share of North America-to-Asia
investment (FDI) increased in China by tonnes, in 2021.
North American exports to East Asia
nearly 25% over the past five years,
are forecast to grow 4.4% per year over
more than 17% of it from 2020 to 2021.
the next two decades, driven largely
Vietnam also experienced high growth
by the rise of the Asian middle class. In
of almost 10% over the past five years,
2020, the Asian middle class reached 2
reinforcing East Asia’s emergence as
billion people, compared to 647 million
an increasingly attractive and high-
in the Americas. Asia is expected to
growth market.
account for 65% of the world’s middle
On East Asian–North America trade class (which will reach an estimated
routes, the forecast assumes growth 3.5 billion) by 2030. China’s middle-
will increase as FDI in the region class population is expected to nearly
continues to grow, especially as the double, from more than 400 million in
global market recovers from COVID 2021 to over 750 million by 2041.
supply chain pressures, and demand
increases for air-transported goods.

World Air Cargo Forecast 2022–2041 39

Europe– For the purposes of this forecast, we define Europe as all 27 member
East Asia countries of the European Union plus Albania, Gibraltar, Iceland, Norway,
Switzerland, Turkey, the United Kingdom, and the countries of the former
Yugoslavia. We define East Asia as Australia, Cambodia, China, Hong Kong,
Indonesia, Japan, Macau, Malaysia, New Zealand, the Philippines, Singapore,
South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, and Vietnam.

Hong Kong
World Air Cargo Forecast 2022–2041 40
Europe–East Asia

Strong Growth in 2021; Europe’s economic slowdown

Highlights contributed to the situation. After
Challenging Market growing 3% in 2017, the European
• T
 he Europe–East Asia air
cargo market has grown 4.3%
Dynamics in 2022 economy slowed to 2.1% and 1.7%
The Europe–East Asia market growth for 2018 and 2019, respectively.
since 2001, but growth slowed
represents 18.8% of the world’s air The introduction of the mandatory
in the second decade due to
cargo in tonne-kilometers, and 9.2% Worldwide Harmonized Light Vehicles
the European sovereign debt
in tonnage. Test Procedure (WLTP) for EU car
crisis and COVID-19.
manufacturers also played a role
• T
 he Europe-to-Asia flow After contracting 8.4% in 2020 due in the slowdown. This stricter new
is expected to approach to pandemic impacts, the overall control system for fuel consumption
parity with Asia-to-Europe, Europe–East Asia market grew 15.7% and emissions applied not only to new
as Asia’s growing middle in 2021. The Europe-to-East Asia flow vehicles, but also to vehicles that were
class accelerates a shift to grew 14.6% in 2021 after contracting already approved under the previous
a consumption economy, 12.8% in 2020, while, in the East Asia- system but had not yet been sold.
increasing the demand for to-Europe direction, traffic contracted
European goods. 4.1% in 2020 and grew 16.8% in 2021.

• Robust economic Air freight in the East Asia-to-Europe

fundamentals, a growing direction increased from 2.5 million
Asian middle class, and tonnes in 2020 to 2.9 million tonnes in
manufacturing investment 2021. Eastbound (from Europe to East
throughout Asia are key Asia) air freight volumes increased from
drivers behind the 4.5% 2.2 million tonnes in 2020 to 2.6 million
annual growth projected for tonnes in 2021.
the East Asia–Europe flow. Europe–East Asia air cargo traffic grew
an average of 4.3% per year over the
last two decades. After the global
economic downturn of 2008/2009,
the market quickly recovered, growing
5.7% per year between 2009 and
2017, but then saw no growth in 2018,
followed by a decline of 2% in 2019.

World Air Cargo Forecast 2022–2041 41

Europe–East Asia

Air Trade Flow Dynamics income of Asia’s growing middle class

The Europe–East Asia Air Cargo Market Has Grown 4.3% per Year
accelerates a shift to a consumption
Europe–East Asia annual trade growth
economy, increasing the demand for 6.0
includes overall air traffic flows between
European goods.
Europe and Asia and also contains
some sixth-freedom traffic that flows More recently, the pandemic 5.0
air cargo via other regions. Thus, the significantly disrupted economic
chart does not represent the actual activity as well as international air
4.0
trade flows by direction. Comparisons, travel between the two regions,

Tonnes (millions)
therefore, should not be made between impacting both air freight demand
the chart at right and the following air and capacity. Before COVID-19, 3.0
trade flow analysis. passenger widebody belly capacity
accounted for 57% of all Europe–East
Between 2004 and 2008, Europe’s 2.0
Asia air cargo capacity. With the onset
imports from East Asia grew 12%
of the pandemic, nearly 40% of the
per year, while its exports to Asia
Europe–East Asia air cargo capacity 1.0
grew at 8.4%. By 2008, Europe was
exited the market. As a result, freighter
importing 2.3 million tonnes from
operators raised their fleet utilization
East Asia and exporting 1.6 million 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021
and load factors to unprecedented
tonnes to the same region. The gap
levels. Despite increased operations,
between Europe’s imports and exports
the additional freighter capacity was
narrowed, reaching parity in 2011 due
not sufficient to compensate for European Air Imports From East Asia Account for 53% of the Market
to the global economic downturn of
the lost belly capacity of passenger
2008 and 2009, as well as aggressive
aircraft. This led to escalating cargo 3.5
financial stimulus in Asia. China led the
yields. While beginning to moderate as
way with a stimulus package equivalent 3.0
passenger capacity gradually returns
to 3.2% of its GDP in 2009.
to the market, Europe–East Asia
2.5
Since 2011, Europe-to-East Asia and
Tonnes (millions)
cargo rates remain elevated due to
East Asia-to-Europe volumes grew the Ukraine War, which has reduced 2.0
2.1% and 3.2%, respectively. The cargo capacity and caused airlines
Europe-to-East Asia flow is expected to to implement a “war surcharge” until 1.5
remain close to parity with East Asia- normal operations return.
to-Europe, as the higher disposable 1.0

0.5

2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021
East Asia-to-Europe, 4.2% Per Year Growth
Europe-to-East Asia, 4.4% Per Year Growth

World Air Cargo Forecast 2022–2041 42

Europe–East Asia

Air Trade Commodities the categories are machinery and both directions since 2001, as the
electrical equipment; computers, office, movement of business samples, legal
In the Europe-to-East Asia flow,
and communication equipment; and documents, and other expedited
three commodity categories account
documents and small packages. small-batch items between Europe
for 60% of all air cargo traffic. In
and East Asia has increased. The total
descending order, they are machinery One particularly fast-growing market
bidirectional express market averaged
and electrical equipment; perishables segment between Europe and East
over 1 billion shipments in 2021.
such as meat, fish, fruits, vegetables, Asia has been documents and small
and flowers; and documents and small packages, sometimes referred to
packages. In the East Asia-to-Europe as traditional express traffic. This
direction, three commodity categories trade flow has average 6.7% annual
also account for 77% of air trade. Here, growth in annual shipment count in

Commodities Flows for Europe–East Asia Air Cargo Market

East Asia-to-Europe Europe-to-East Asia

2.9M Tonnes 2.6M Tonnes

Machinery and Electrical Equipment 33% Machinery and Electrical Equipment 29%

Computers, Office, Communications,

27% Perishables 16%
and Professional Equipment

Documents and Small Packages 17% Documents and Small Packages 15%

Computers, Office, Communications,

Textiles, Leather, and Apparel 11% 8%
and Professional Equipment

Perishables 3% Textiles, Leather, and Apparel 7%

Other 9% Other 25%

World Air Cargo Forecast 2022–2041 43

Europe–East Asia

Air Cargo Market Forecast 20 years. China will continue to play

East Asia-to-Europe Air Cargo Traffic Will Grow 4.3% per Year
a major role, with expected GDP
Air trade flowing in both directions of Average Annual Growth, 2022–2041
growth of 4.2% per year over the next
the Europe–Asia air cargo market is
20 years. China’s economy currently
forecast to grow an average of 4.5% 8.0
accounts for 57% of East Asia’s GDP, 4.9%
per year during the next 20 years.
and will increase to 66% by 2041. The 4.3%

Air Freight Tonnes (millions)

The flow from East Asia to Europe is
established economies of Europe are 6.0
3.7%
projected to grow at an average rate
expected to grow 1.5% per year.
of 4.3% per year over the next two
decades. The flow from Europe to East Evolving supply chain strategies also
4.0
Asia is forecast to grow 4.6% per year contribute to the flow’s outlook. The
during the upcoming 20 years. pandemic, coupled with geopolitical
developments—including US–China 2.0 History Forecast
Analysis: Economic Growth tensions and the Ukraine War— 3.2% 4.3%
highlighted the vulnerabilities of growth per year growth per year
and Supply Chain Dynamics the global supply chains and their
2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041
Drive Outlook dependence on the production
High Base Low
Europe-to-East Asia cargo traffic outputs of a limited number of
growth slowed to 2.1% over the last economies. Supply-chain disruptions Source: S&P Global, Boeing Analysis

10 years, from 4.3% over the last 15 across the globe have accelerated
years, due in part to the COVID-19 the manufacturing diversification
strategies of some companies. While Europe-to-East Asia Air Cargo Traffic Will Grow 4.6% per Year
pandemic, during which traffic declined
12.8% in 2020. China remains the market-leading Average Annual Growth, 2022–2041
giant in manufacturing across East
Our forecast anticipates that above- Asia, companies are beginning to 8.0
global-average economic growth in incorporate a China-plus-one strategy, 5.3%
East Asia will continue, as a result in which manufacturing-sector Air Freight Tonnes (millions) 4.6%
of strong economic development 6.0
investment is becoming increasingly 3.9%
initiatives. Asia’s GDP is forecast to attractive in other Asian regions.
grow 3.5% per year during the next
4.0

2.0 History Forecast

2.1% 4.6%
growth per year growth per year

2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041

High Base Low

Source: S&P Global, Boeing Analysis

World Air Cargo Forecast 2022–2041 44

Europe–East Asia

Over the last five years, flows of One Belt, One Road: stimulate economic growth in the figures include customs clearance,
Foreign Direct Investment to Indonesia, region, supporting increased trade warehousing, etc.) From a commodity
Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand,
Primarily Complementary volumes. Europe–East Asia is expected level, the value per kilogram of
Singapore, and Vietnam have averaged to Air Cargo to benefit from BRI due to improved products moved by rail is much
about 11%, up from 6% between China’s Belt and Road Initiative connectivity and lower cost of trade. closer to sea than to air. As these
2012-2017. Infrastructure initiatives and (BRI), also known as “One Belt, One The project is targeted for completion comparisons illustrate, rail is more
manufacturing account for this growth. Road,” was launched in 2013 and in 2049. competitive with sea freight than with
Vietnam and Malaysia are experiencing is one of the most ambitious global air freight.
From a modal perspective, growing
strong development growth in high- infrastructure projects in history. China China-to-Europe connectivity will
value manufacturing, and Thailand, plans to invest up to $8 trillion in 115 impact freight markets. The cost of
Indonesia, and Singapore are countries, building roads, railways, rail is twice the cost of sea freight, but
becoming increasingly attractive maritime shipping lanes, and airports only a quarter the cost of air freight.
investment regions for the manufacture to better connect China to Central Transit times for rail average 13–18
of other goods, such as automotive Asia, Southeast Asia, Russia, Europe, days, compared to 30 days for ocean
parts, machinery, pharmaceuticals, and Africa. This vast investment will and five days for air freight. (Those
and packaged goods.

World Air Cargo Forecast 2022–2041 45

Europe and For the purposes of this forecast, we define Europe as all 27 member
North America countries of the European Union plus Albania, Gibraltar, Iceland, Norway,
Switzerland, Turkey, the United Kingdom, and the countries of the former
Yugoslavia. We define North America as Canada and the United States.

Amsterdam
World Air Cargo Forecast 2022–2041 46
Europe and North America

Market Overview spending. Total air trade was down

Highlights 19% in 2020, but up 31% in 2021,
Air trade between Europe and North
compared to average annual growth
• Europe–North America America accounts for approximately
of 1.6% over the last two decades. In
air trade growth is largely 6.1% of the world’s air cargo tonnage,
the U.S.-to-Europe direction, annual
driven by industrial growth in and 8.2% of its tonne-kilometers.
air cargo traffic contracted 16% in
manufacturing equipment and Europe–North America air trade
2020 due to pandemic constraints, but
chemicals, while apparel has rebounded in 2021, while emerging
expanded 32% in 2021. In the Europe-
more recently increased its countries supported significant growth.
to-U.S. direction, annual air cargo
growth contribution.
traffic contracted 21% in 2020 and
• Five countries—France, Overall Tonnage Rises expanded 31% in 2021.
Germany, Italy, the The Europe–North America air
Overall, the market saw its highest
Netherlands, and the United cargo market has, historically, been
volumes ever in 2021, up 6% over
Kingdom—account for nearly volatile. Most recently, the snapback
pre-pandemic levels. Total air cargo
65% of all European air trade from pandemic disruptions, and the
tonnage between Europe and the
with North America, while ensuing pent-up demand for goods,
United States was 3.6 million tonnes
emerging European countries accelerated 2021 air cargo tonnage
in 2021 compared to 2.7 million tonnes
gained market share in recent as consumers boosted e-commerce
in 2020.
years.
• The Europe–North America air
cargo market grew 6% since Europe–North America Total Air Trade Has Grown an Average of
2019, but has slowed due to 1.6% per Year Over the Last Two Decades
the Russia-Ukraine war and
supply-chain challenges. The 4.0
long-term outlook is for 2.3%
3.5
growth annually.
3.0
Tonnes (millions)

2.5

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021
Europe to North America North America to Europe Total
Source: US Department of Commerce TRADE, S&P GTA

World Air Cargo Forecast 2022–2041 47

Europe and North America

European Air Trade Five Countries Account for 65% of Real GDP Growth Rate (Europe)
Diversity Increases Europe–North America Air Trade
10
On average, since 1980, five
countries—France, Germany, Italy, 8

Real GDP Growth Rate (%)

the Netherlands, and the United 6
Kingdom—accounted for nearly
4
65% of all European air trade with
North America. Recently, however, 3.6M 2
Tonnes
fast-growing trade in the Central and
0
Eastern European Countries (CEEC)
has increased the region’s air trade -2
share. With the majority of the CEEC -4
joining the EU in the early 2000s,
more than 1,800 German companies -6
Germany: 23% Eastern
invested in 3,500 projects in the CEEC Europe: 7%
United 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
between 2006 and 2017, boosting both Kingdom: 13% Belgium: 5% Western Europe Central Europe and Balkans
trade and income growth. Italy: 11% Norway: 3%
Source: IHS Markit
Eastern Europe was a bright spot France: 9% Switzerland: 3%
for trade in 2021, with Poland’s year- Netherlands: 9% Other: 17%
over-year industrial growth rate at Europe–US Air Trade Slowed at the Start of the Russia–Ukraine War
15%, while Western Europe recovered
Steady improvement after initial shock in April
from pandemic losses, enabling
countries such as the United Kingdom 140
and Germany to see growth of 5%.
However, industrial growth slowed Monthly Change in Air Cargo 130
again in early 2022 due to the Russia–
120
Ukraine war’s impacts on energy prices
Index, 2019 =100

and manufacturing supply chains. 110

100

90

80

70

Jan-20 Jul-20 Jan-20 Jul-21 Jan-22 Jun-22

United States to Europe Europe to United States

World Air Cargo Forecast 2022–2041 48

Europe and North America

Industrial Commodities Drive group. In the North America-to- Oversized cargo such as machinery
Europe direction, capital equipment, and industrial commodities like
Cargo Growth chemicals, and express shipments chemicals, combined with the varied
Industrial production of certain made up nearly 55% of all air trade and unique demands of shippers
commodities is a key driver of growth volumes in 2021. and shipping regulations, support
in air cargo flows. dedicated freighter capacity. Before
With these commodities in mind,
Seven commodity groups make up the pandemic, dedicated transatlantic
both belly capacity and dedicated
approximately 75% of the air cargo freighter capacity was roughly one
freighters are key to the North
flows from Europe to North America. third of the total. After the pandemic’s
American and European markets. As
Industrial and manufactured goods, onset, the ratio of belly to main deck
the largest long-haul passenger flow,
like components and processing cargo capacity flipped, with main deck
the transatlantic routes demand high
equipment, are key elements of both freighters supplying two thirds of that
capacity, greater frequencies, and
eastbound and westbound flows. capacity. Transatlantic shipping leads
diversity of destinations from airplanes
Chemicals and capital equipment the recovery of long-haul passenger
with enhanced belly cargo capabilities,
compose the second largest group, capacity, so this ratio is starting to
which often carry commodities like
with express shipments trailing close normalize, with current shares running
express shipping and small bulk cargo.
behind as the third largest commodity close to half-and-half.

Top Commodities Account for About 80% of the Directional Flows Top Commodities Account for 75% of the Directional Flows

North America to Europe Europe to North America

1.5M Tonnes 2.1M Tonnes

Machinery and Electrical Equipment 21% Machinery and Electrical Equipment 26%

Chemicals and Related Products 20% Chemicals and Related Products 13%

Documents and Small Packages 14% Documents and Small Packages 13%

Computers, Office, Communications, Computers, Office, Communications,

11% 9%
and Professional Equipment and Professional Equipment

Metals and Metal Products 8% Animal Products 8%

Vegetable Products 6% Miscellaneous Goods 6%

Other 20% Other 25%

Source: US Department of Commerce TRADE, S&P GTA Source: S&P GTA Dashboard, Eurostat Trade Data

World Air Cargo Forecast 2022–2041 49

Europe and North America

Europe–North America air commodities are forecast to grow

North America to Europe Air Trade Forecast to Grow 1.8% per Year
slightly faster than historical trends.
Forecast: 2022–2041 Air trade in the North America–Europe Average Annual Growth, 2022–2041
GDP growth in Europe and North direction will average 1.8% growth per
America will continue to be the 3.0
year, and will grow slightly faster in the
broadest-based driver of air trade Europe–North America direction, at an 1.1%
2.5
between these two mature economies. average of 2.7% per year. 1.8%
Baseline economic growth projections

Growth rate %
2.0 2.2%
for Europe and North America through For comparison, according to the S&P
2041 anticipate an average annual Global Trade Atlas, the containership
1.5
growth of 1.3% and 1.7%, respectively. sector between Europe and North
Low- and high-growth scenarios are America will expand 2% annually
1.0
based on projections of 0.5% below through 2035. Pandemic shocks
History Forecast
and above baseline GDP growth rates. caused reliability to waver in maritime 0.5 1% 1.8%
shipping due to high containership growth per year growth per year
Baseline growth of total air trade in costs, harbor union strikes, labor
2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041
this market over the next 20 years shortages, and COVID-19 outages,
is projected to be 2.3% annually, which prompted suppliers to seek High Base Low
compared to the 1.6% annual average alternate modes of transportation.
of the previous two decades. European Air cargo was the answer, providing
and North American economies are Europe to North America Air Trade Will Grow 2.7% per Year
quick, reliable service in a time of
working to bolster high-technology need. This experience reaffirmed the Average Annual Growth, 2022–2041
industrial development for commodities complementary roles of air cargo and
like chips and semiconductors, most 4.5
maritime shipping, as they empower 3.5%
recently investing in infrastructure global businesses to fully recover and 4.0
2.7%
and capital equipment to support succeed in the long term. 3.5
operations in both regions. As a result, Growth rate % 1.9%
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0 History Forecast
2.4% 2.7%
0.5 growth per year growth per year
2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041
High Base Low

World Air Cargo Forecast 2022–2041 50

Intra-East Asia This section focuses on countries of the eastern Pacific Rim: Australia, China
and Oceania (including the special administrative districts of Hong Kong and Macau, unless
otherwise noted), Indonesia, Japan, Malaysia, New Zealand, the Philippines,
Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, and Vietnam. No domestic
flows are examined in this section; for China’s domestic flows, please see
“Domestic China,” page 29.

Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam

World Air Cargo Forecast 2022–2041 51
Intra-East Asia and Oceania

Market Overview and volume contracted by more than 12%

Highlights overall in 2019 and 2020, due to trade
Recent Dynamics disputes, pandemic constraints, and
• Above-global-average The intra-Asia air cargo market remains supply chain challenges. Currently, the
economic and trade one of the world’s largest trade flow represents 7.4% of the world’s air
expansion will fuel air cargo flows, despite increasing economic cargo in tonne-kilometers, and 14.1% in
traffic growth. uncertainties. tonnage. By 2041, the flow is forecast
• Double-digit e-commerce Despite tonnage that grew nearly 5% to carry 12% of global air cargo traffic
growth will drive express- per year between 2011 and 2018, intra- in tonne-kilometers and become the
network development, further East Asia and Oceania cargo trade third largest market in the world.
supporting a robust air cargo
outlook.
• S
 upply chain diversification Region’s Air Cargo Growth 2.6% per Year Since 2011
and regional terrain
constraints mean that air 10
cargo will remain a key
component of the goods-
8
transport infrastructure.
Tonnes (millions)

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Source: AAPA, ICAO TFS, Airline/airport sources, Government Trade Statistics

World Air Cargo Forecast 2022–2041 52

Intra-East Asia and Oceania

Economic Fundamentals in the global economy. We forecast Second, China’s influence will broaden, these trends, due to competitive labor
continued expansion of private as it shifts further toward consumer- costs, high productivity, and business
Support Long-Term Growth consumption and industrial production driven production of higher-value environments that favor direct foreign
China, which represents more than in the post-pandemic environment. manufactured goods. investment. Pandemic-driven supply
50% of the region’s GDP, will continue chain optimization and de-risking look
to lead economic output and hold In the longer term, the region’s Asian It is worth noting that air cargo traffic
likely to accelerate this dynamic.
its position as the region’s primary economies are projected to grow in critical subassemblies and parts has
air cargo customer. Economies and at an average annual rate of 3.6%, grown to support the emerging supply While these developments likely will
trade in other Asian countries are also expanding the overall GDP by nearly chains of various Asian manufacturing affect all traffic that touches China—
expected to see strong growth, which 50% in the next 20 years. China will sectors. At the same time, “China- especially when it involves parts and
will bolster the overall intra-Asia trade continue to increase its share of the plus-one” strategies have led many subassemblies such as automotive
outlook. region’s GDP in two ways: First, its of the region’s countries to establish components and machinery—air cargo
economy, expected to grow 4.3% manufacturing hubs outside China. demand is not expected to change
In the region’s mix of mature and per year, will account for nearly 65% Emerging markets in Southeast Asia notably over all, but rather to shift to
emerging markets, established of the region’s overall GDP by 2041. have been the primary beneficiaries of other country pairs in the region.
economic growth rates are among the
world’s highest. Despite uncertainties
such as currency depreciation, high Resilience Expected in GDP Growth
inflation, and rising oil prices, intra-Asia
trade has continued to expand at well 10Y CAGR 10Y CAGR
above the average rate. The region 5.2% 3.6%
250
(2011–2021) (2021–2031)
experienced a decrease in air cargo
volume in 2019, as did most other parts
of the world, falling 5.4% in 2019 due to 200
Index, 100 = 2011 levels

trade disputes, weaker manufacturing

activities, and lower consumer and
business confidence. However, before 150
the onset of COVID-19, the region was
starting to show recovery in the fourth
quarter of 2019 and early 2020. Now, 100
nearly three years into the pandemic,
restrictions have started to ease, and
the region’s near-term GDP outlook 50
remains resilient, despite uncertainties

2011 2016 2021 2026 2031

China Korea Indonesia Other

Japan Australia Taiwan
Source: S&P Global

World Air Cargo Forecast 2022–2041 53

Intra-East Asia and Oceania

E-Commerce Market E-Commerce Is a Key Growth Factor

Expansion Will Drive Growth Top 5 E-Commerce Sales by Country (2021)
China is the largest e-commerce
market in the world. Even before the 2,250
pandemic, the region’s e-commerce
market was growing at double-digit
rates. This growth accelerated during 2,000
the pandemic, as e-commerce
became the preferred consumer
purchasing behavior. China, Japan, 1,750
and Korea are among the five largest
e-commerce markets globally, and they
continue to expand their market shares
of retail sales in both domestic and 1,500
cross-border transactions.
With a growth rate of 20.6% in 2022,
1,250
Southeast Asia is forecast to see the
Billions

world’s fastest e-commerce retail

growth. Over the next three years,
Southeast Asia’s e-commerce revenue 1,000
is expected to increase more than
15% annually, reaching a projected
market volume of nearly $220 billion 750
by 2025. As the e-commerce market
(both domestic and cross-border)
further expands, the demand for faster
500
and more reliable movement of goods
will particularly benefit the air cargo
market, especially in areas that lack
well-established postal and ground 250
network support.

China US UK Japan Korea

Sources: US Census Bureau, eMarketer

World Air Cargo Forecast 2022–2041 54

Intra-East Asia and Oceania

Multiple Factors Will Propel region. For example, nations like Since water separates most of the cargo services will gain momentum by
Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan enjoy region’s major manufacturing centers supporting the development of national
Air Cargo Development the advantages of well-developed (China, Japan, South Korea), maritime economies that are experiencing
A variety of dynamics, both geographic ground infrastructures, and contribute shipment has always been considered strong growth in per capita incomes.
and demographic, are speeding air significantly to Asia’s trade volumes. an efficient transportation mode. But,
cargo development. The leading commodity sectors in
But the reach of an island- or when COVID-19 constrained maritime
the region—machinery and electrical
Home to 30% of the global population, peninsula-based ground system is shipping due to labor shortages
equipment and computers; office
the region inherently offers vast market limited to domestic markets. and elevated transportation costs,
communications; professional
potential. As the source of a high some suppliers sought alternatives.
At the same time, despite the past equipment—make up almost half of
proportion of the world’s consumer As a result, air cargo services
decade’s rapid ground-infrastructure the region’s air cargo volumes. The
goods, it represents a stronghold gained new business, particularly
developments, challenging terrains still perishables, chemicals, and related
of both supply and demand. And, by delivering high-value industrial
limit access to vast expanses of China product groups each represent about
while today’s surging consumerism goods and perishables—the core
and Southeast Asia. 20% of the trade, while the textiles,
has fed explosive economic growth, air-cargo commodities—reliably and
leather, and apparel sector accounts
geopolitical tensions elsewhere in the Taken together, those dynamics mean on schedule. So, while air cargo and
for 6%.
world soon may impose new stresses that much of the region’s trade still maritime shipping will continue to play
on intra-Asia supply chains. depends on air transport. complementary roles in the region, air

Asia is the largest continent,

encompassing about 30% of Earth’s Region’s Commodity Mix Is Diverse
landmass. Its terrain varies widely:
mountain ranges; plateaus; plains, Machinery and Electrical Equipment 25%
deserts, and steppes; rivers, lakes, and
seas. Many of these features impede Computers, Office, Communications,
19%
and Professional Equipment
ground transportation.
Miscellaneous Goods 18%
Consequently, the range and
effectiveness of ground-transport Perishables 11%
infrastructures vary by country and
Chemicals and Related Products 9%

Textiles, Leather, and Apparel 6%

Other 11%

World Air Cargo Forecast 2022–2041 55

Intra-East Asia and Oceania

Air Cargo Growth Forecast The region relies heavily on the belly consumption in the region, combined
capacity of widebody passenger with demand for intercontinental export
at 5.7% Through 2041 aircraft. While dedicated freighter markets, will support the return of
Before 2019, intra-Asia air cargo utilization remains historically high, stronger air cargo traffic growth.
traffic enjoyed an average annual it is still insufficient to make up for
growth of 5.2% over each preceding Along with some other, longer-haul
today’s shortfall in belly capacity.
decade. However, the region’s air flows that touch the Asia-Pacific
Belly capacity, however, is expected
cargo volume contracted by more than region, the intra-Asia and Oceania
to recover in the near term, as travel
12% during 2019 and 2020, mostly cargo market outlook is expected to
restrictions ease in many of the region’s
due to trade disputes, pandemic remain robust. E-commerce growth
key markets.
constraints, and related impacts on and express network development will
air cargo capacity. At 2.6%, growth Economic forecasts show improved boost long-term growth in the region.
from 2011 to 2021 reduced the pre- trade and continued robust GDP We forecast an average annual growth
pandemic trend by half. growth, which will fuel the expansion of 5.7% over the next 20 years.
of air trade in the region. Increased

Region’s Air Cargo Market Will Grow 5.7% per Year

40
6.3%
35
5.7%
30
5.0%

25
Millions

20
History
15 2.6%
growth per year

10 Forecast
5.7%
growth per year
5

2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041

High Base Low

World Air Cargo Forecast 2022–2041 56

Intra-Europe For the purposes of this forecast, we define Europe as all 27 member
countries of the European Union, plus Albania, Gibraltar, Iceland,
Norway, Switzerland, Turkey, the United Kingdom, and the countries of
the former Yugoslavia.

Frankfurt, Germany
World Air Cargo Forecast 2022–2041 57
Intra-Europe

Still Recovering From This concentration has remained a halt with the arrival of COVID-19,
Highlights relatively stable throughout recent contracting nearly 22% in 2020.
Pandemic Lows history. The proximity of markets Recovery started in 2021, as intra-
• Intra-Europe air cargo traffic The intra-Europe air cargo market within Europe generally limits routes to Europe traffic grew about 17% over
exceeded 2020 levels by 17%, comprises approximately 4% of the relatively short hauls, typically between 2020. The scheduled freight sector
but remains 8.5% below 2019 world’s air cargo tonnage. However, 900 and 1,200 kilometers. This analysis fared slightly better, growing 23% over
levels. By the end of August, because the region is geographically surveys domestic and transborder 2020, but trailing 2019’s results by 4%.
2022, trans-border general compact, it includes only 1% of the intra-Europe air cargo traffic, regardless Meanwhile, accelerated growth in the
cargo tonnage had grown 6% world’s tonne-kilometers. of its true origin or destination. business-to-consumer (e-commerce)
over the same period in 2021.
Approximately 68% of all air cargo sector helped to mitigate pandemic
Between 2014 and the onset of the
• D
 espite the region’s weak moving into, within, and out of Europe headwinds, and will continue to play
pandemic, expansion in the intra-
overall air cargo traffic passes through one or more of the a large role in the region’s traffic
Europe air cargo market exceeded
performance, pandemic- northern European countries (Belgium, recovery.
long-term trends. Growth peaked in
related changes in consumer Germany, France, Luxembourg, the 2017, jumping nearly 10% over 2016
behavior drove significant Netherlands, and the United Kingdom). levels. However, growth ground to
growth in daily express
shipments, which jumped
approximately 14.5% in 2020.
Still Recovering From the Pandemic, the Intra-Europe Air Cargo Market Express Makes Up Nearly 70% of
• L
 ed predominantly by Grew 2.8% per Year in the Past Decade Intra-Europe Tonnes Moved by Air
express shipments and longer
scheduled-freight hauls to 3.5 2.8% growth
eastern and southern Europe,
intra-Europe air cargo traffic 3.0
is forecast to expand at
an annual rate of 2.5% 2.5 2021
RTKS (billions)

through 2041. 2.4M

2.0 Tonnes

1.5

1.0

0.5 Scheduled Freight

Mail
2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 Express

Express Mail Scheduled Freight Source: AEA, ICAO, IATA, OAG, Cirium, Boeing

Source: AEA, ICAO, IATA, OAG, Cirium, Boeing

World Air Cargo Forecast 2022–2041 58

Intra-Europe

Although intra-Europe air cargo excluding the pandemic, scheduled services. Of course, geography has
tonnage recovered to 2.4 million tonnes freight and mail have recovered, with traditionally favored surface transport
in 2021, it still trails 2019 levels by 6.8% and 1.6% average annual growth, within Europe, but the 1990 Schengen
approximately 9%. The express sector respectively. Much of this growth Agreement represented a turning point.
made up less than 10% of intra-Europe emanates from network expansion It eliminated customs inspections
air trade, over all, in the late 1980s, among a small number of passenger of goods moving between several
but now commands nearly 70% of this airlines on the periphery of Europe. northern European countries—and,
market. The express sector’s share later, within most of the EU. This
Except during the 2008–2009 global
grew to 72% in 2020, at the height of development facilitated intra-Europe
financial crisis and in 2019 and 2020,
the pandemic, as passenger services truck transport, and reduced the
express traffic has grown steadily for
were suspended or greatly reduced. demand for expedited scheduled
the past two decades. While express
airfreight service. Consequently,
traffic grew 6.4% in 2017 and 6.7%
Intra-Europe Air Cargo trucking has become the preferred
in 2018, this segment of intra-Europe
mode of transport for most freight and
Traffic Includes Scheduled air cargo traffic is estimated to have
mail, and even for small-parcel express
contracted 3.6% in 2019 and 19.2%
Freight, Mail, and Express in 2020, largely as a result of industrial
shipments in short-haul markets.
The three primary components of air traffic weakness, network consolidation
cargo traffic within Europe—scheduled among major express carriers, and
freight, mail, and express—grew at lockdowns earlier in the pandemic. Intra-Europe Air Express Shipments Have Nearly Tripled Since 2001
differing rates. Express traffic averaged International Shipments Only
2.8% growth per year during the past Integrated express carrier traffic
20 years. Scheduled freight and mail, has made up more than half of all 1000 2.8X

Estimated Daily Shipments (thousands)

combined, grew at a slower rate of intra-Europe air cargo tonnage since
1.8% during the same period. 2003, reflecting the declining market
share of scheduled freight and mail. 800
The intra-Europe air cargo market has It is important to note that express
expanded nearly 3% per year since network traffic within Europe includes 600 1.6X
2011, although, prior to the pandemic, significant general freight, which fills out
this rate averaged nearly 5%. freighter loads when traffic is light in
Scheduled freight and mail traffic were the small parcels and documents that 400
stagnant in the first decade of the past traditionally make up express cargo.
20 years, while the express segment
Nearly all air cargo growth since the 200
alone accounted for nearly all growth
in the intra-Europe air cargo market. late 1990s is a result of the expansion
During the most recent decade, of integrated air express carrier
2001 2011 2021

Source: Cargo Facts Consulting

World Air Cargo Forecast 2022–2041 59

Intra-Europe

While growth slowed during the

Airline-Scheduled Truck-Flight Frequency Returned to 2019 Levels
2008–2009 global financial crisis, the
estimated number of daily international
30 1,400
air express shipments expanded at
an average rate of 4.5% annually
between 2001 and 2011. Since
then, daily shipment-count growth 1,200
25
reaccelerated, showing an average
6.1% growth per year as consumers
turned to online shopping during
1,000
the pandemic. Daily intra-Europe
20
express shipments expanded from
approximately 326,000 per day in 2001
to 922,000 daily in 2021. 800

15
Trucks Complement
Scheduled Airplane Freight 600

Services 10
Air cargo has never been solely an
400
airport-to-airport service. Instead,
air cargo is one component of an
infrastructure that links the shipper and 5
the consignee. Trucking offers door-to- 200
door and factory-to-distribution center
service, which air transport alone
cannot provide.
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Scheduled airlines that serve the intra-
Weekly Frequency of Truck Flights (thousands) Truck Flight Airport Pairs
Europe market have used truck flights
(trucking services registered Source: OAG – May 2022 Schedule Sample

with their own flight numbers) to

extend their networks and increase
scheduling flexibility.

World Air Cargo Forecast 2022–2041 60

 Intra-Europe

In Europe, long-haul truck-flight networks. Weekly truck-flight Intra-Europe Forecast Rigid labor markets, an aging
operations supplement overall frequencies grew 3.9% on average population, expensive pension
Continued growth of express
air logistics systems. Truck-flight per year between 2011 and 2021. systems, and slow economic reforms
shipments, and increased connections
operations provide regularly scheduled However, according to airline truck- are expected to limit long-term
to Eastern and Southern Europe, will
freight service for high-value or flight schedules, airport pairs of truck economic growth, especially in the
drive the expansion of intra-Europe air
work-in-progress goods between flights dropped 2.6% in 2019 and then countries of northern Europe. War
cargo traffic, which is forecast to grow
manufacturing facilities, especially to fell another 0.8% in 2020. Scheduled in Ukraine, a potential energy crisis,
at an average annual rate of 2.5% per
and from central and eastern Europe. truck-flight reductions occurred and heightened inflation may curb
year through 2041.The 20-year forecast
Scheduled truck operations are mostly in the domestic markets of economic growth and entrepreneurial
growth in air cargo traffic is higher
often used where demand is too low France, Germany, Italy, and the United activity across many European
than the 2.3% growth trend recorded
or infrequent to warrant dedicated Kingdom, and in a drawdown of certain countries, thereby restraining air cargo
during the previous (2001–2021)
freighter airplane service. Their mainland-Europe markets connected growth. The effects of the UK’s 2020
20-year period.
dramatic rise in the past 20 years has to the UK. Possible reasons for the secession from the European Union
clearly contributed to a decline in the drawdown include overall industrial Economic activity (as measured by are not fully known at this time, but
growth of scheduled air freight. production weakness and the trade GDP) and industrial activity will remain likely overshadowed by impacts of
impacts of Brexit. As we left the the primary drivers of traffic growth the pandemic. It is, however, worth
Historically, intra-Europe truck-
most intense pandemic disruptions in this market. In the long term, our noting that increased trade barriers
flight activity has grown primarily
behind, both airport pairs and weekly projections show the baseline GDP are generally a drag on air cargo traffic
around major hub airports, where
frequencies grew in 2021, by 2% and for Europe averaging 1.5% growth growth.
it strengthens carriers’ air cargo
6.3%, respectively. per year through 2041. We assessed
On a positive note, if some shippers
GDP projections of 0.5% below and
decide that longer trucking times to
Intra-Europe Air Cargo Traffic Will Grow 2.5% per Year above the baseline, and the results
distant eastern and southern markets
of these growth rates are reflected in
Average Annual Growth, 2022–2041 are unacceptable, the prospects for air
our low- and high-growth scenarios.
cargo traffic growth may brighten for
6.0
Intra-Europe air cargo traffic growth
the next two decades.
is forecast to range between 1.5%
5.0 3.0% and 3%.
2.5%
RTKS (billions)

4.0 1.5%

3.0

2.0
History Forecast
1.0 2.8% 2.5%
growth per year growth per year

2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041

High Base Low

World Air Cargo Forecast 2022–2041 61

Latin America– For the purposes of this forecast, we define Latin America as the Caribbean
Europe Basin, Central America, including Mexico, and South America. We define
Europe as all 27 member countries of the European Union plus Albania,
Gibraltar, Iceland, Norway, Switzerland, Türkiye, the United Kingdom, and
countries comprising the former Yugoslavia.

São Paulo
World Air Cargo Forecast 2022–2041 62
Latin America–Europe

Latin America–Europe Amid volatile economic activity, Latin

Highlights American air trade with Europe proved
Market Growth Shows resilient, growing an average 3% per
• T
 hough suffering a 24.9%
drop due to the pandemic,
Continued Signs of year over the last two decades, despite
the Latin America–Europe air Improvement a steep drop due to COVID-19.
During the pandemic, air trade on this
trade has rebounded well, In the Latin America–Europe market,
flow fell 24.9% from 2019 to 2020.
growing 26.5% 2020 to 2021. which represents approximately 2.7%
Although post-pandemic recovery
of world air cargo traffic in tonne-
• T
 he South America subregion has been strong, with 26.5% growth
kilometers, and 1.5% in trade
dominates the Latin America– between 2020 and 2021, levels have
tonnage, air cargo grew 1% per
Europe flow with 64% of all yet to fully recover.
year since 2011.
air trade. However, just two
countries account for more
than 50% of traffic: Brazil and Latin America–Europe Traffic has Grown 3% per Year Over the Last Two Decades
Mexico.
1,000 3% growth
• S
 teady growth of agricultural
product demand, expanding 900
economies in Latin America,
800
and continued investment in
manufacturing are some of the 700
key drivers behind a forecast
growth of 3.9% per year over 600
Traffic (tonnes)

the next 20 years. 500

400

300

200

100

2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021

South America Central America Caribbean

Source: Eurostat Trade Data, Airport data from Switzerland, Türkiye and the United Kingdom, Boeing Analysis

World Air Cargo Forecast 2022–2041 63

Latin America–Europe

In analyzing air traffic growth, we divide

Perishables Make Up the Majority of Trade From Latin America to Europe
Latin America into three subregions:
the Caribbean Basin, Central America, 417,000 Tonnes
and South America. Air trade growth in
Perishables 78%
Central America remains strong, with
a 20-year growth rate through 2021 Machinery and Electrical Equipment 6%
of 4.9%. During the same period, air
trade in the Caribbean subregion grew Metals and Metal Products 5%
an average of 2.2% per year, while the Computers, Office, Communications,
growth rate in Latin America’s largest 3%
and Professional Equipment
subregion, South America, was 2.4%
Chemicals and Related Products 2%
per year.
In 2021, 78% of imports shipped by Textiles, Leather, and Apparel 1%
air to Europe from Latin America
Transportation Equipment and Parts 1%
were perishable products. South
America accounted for 68% of Other 4%
those imports, of which 77% were
fruits, vegetables, seafood, and Source: IHS GTA Dashboard, Eurostat Trade Data
flowers. In the opposite direction, the
commodities traded are more diverse:
machinery and electrical equipment, Europe to Latin America Trade is Spread Across a Wide Variety of Goods
chemicals and related products, and 463,000 Tonnes
transportation equipment and parts,
among others. The European Union Machinery and Electrical Equipment 21%
remains an important trading partner
Chemicals and Related Products 15%
for Latin America, second only to the
United States. Transportation Equipment and Parts 7%
Directional traffic from Latin America
Textiles, Leather, and Apparel 7%
to Europe grew 1.9% over the 10-year
period ending in 2021. The larger Metals and Metal Products 7%
Europe-to-Latin America flow grew
just 0.2% over the same period. More Perishables 6%
recently, traffic to Europe grew 2.4% in Computers, Office, Communications,
the last five years, while traffic growth 5%
and Professional Equipment
in the opposite direction remained
Wood, Paper, and Related Products 2%
below 1%.
Other 29%

Source: S&P Global GTA Dashboard, Eurostat Trade Data

World Air Cargo Forecast 2022–2041 64

Latin America–Europe

Latin America–Europe slightly over the last two years,

from 11% in 2019 to 9.5% in 2021,
Air Trade while Ecuador and Chile remained
Of the more than 880,000 tonnes of relatively flat.
air cargo transported between Latin
America and Europe in 2021, South Central American air trade stands at
America accounted for 67% of the 29% for 2021, a slight contraction
market, followed by Central America from 2020’s 30% traffic figure. Mexico
at 23% and the Caribbean with the continues to be a major trading partner
remaining 10%. with Europe, as shown by its 82%
share of the market. Panama saw a
Brazil and Mexico continue to be the contraction of 0.3% compared to 2020
engines of airborne trade with Europe, levels, whereas Costa Rica grew by
accounting for over 50% of the traffic in 1.4% in 2021.
2021, with Brazil making up 33% and
Mexico representing 24%.
Brazil’s economic recovery has allowed Brazil and Mexico Account for Over Half of Latin America–Europe Trade
the country to maintain its majority
South America Central America Caribbean
share of this market, with 53% of
South American air trade originating or
ending there. Colombia remained the
second largest trading country, at 12%.
Argentina’s air trade share decreased
2021 2021 2021
Airborne Tonnes Airborne Tonnes Airborne Tonnes
560,000 254,000 67,000

Brazil: 53% Argentina: 9% Mexico: 82% Guatemala: 2% Dominican Cuba: 8%

Colombia: 12% Chile: 8% Panama: 12% El Salvador: 0% Republic: 36% Aruba
Ecuador: 9% Other: 9% Costa Rica: 4% Other: 0% Former (NL): 5%
Netherlands Other: 16%
Antilles: 18%
Puerto Rico
(US): 17%

Source: Eurostat Trade Data, Airport data from Switzerland, Türkiye and the United Kingdom, Boeing Analysis

World Air Cargo Forecast 2022–2041 65

Latin America–Europe

Latin America–Europe As Brazil continues its economic While current concerns around
recovery, it will account for 51% of energy and economic health, driven
Economic Outlook South America’s total GDP by 2041. by the Russian–Ukraine war, pose a
As it did in most economies around the The overall South American economy significant risk to near-term growth
world, the pandemic brought economic is expected to grow 3% over the expectations, Europe’s economy is
contraction in 2020 to both Latin forecast period. The Central American forecast to grow at an average annual
America and Europe, which declined economy is expected to grow at an rate of 1.5% over the long term,
7.9% and 5.9%, respectively. Although average rate of 2.4% per year during reflecting modest, steady long-run
2021 saw a sharp rebound, with Latin the 20-year forecast period, with growth in the region.
American economies growing 6.4% Mexico representing nearly 80% of the
and European economies growing subregion’s economy by 2041.
5.9%, both were still below 2019 levels
by the end of 2021.
Looking forward, economies in Latin America’s Economy Is Expected to Grow 2.8% per Year
Latin America are forecast to grow History Forecast
40,000
2.8% per year between 2022 and
2041. Continued growth of industrial
production, particularly in the 35,000
manufacturing sectors of Mexico and
Brazil, along with improved political 30,000 1.4% 1.5%
Real GDP (billions of USD)

growth per year growth per year

stability, will drive economic growth.
25,000

20,000

15,000
1.8% 2.8%
growth per year growth per year
10,000

5,000

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Europe Latin America

Source: S&P Global Market Economic Analysis

World Air Cargo Forecast 2022–2041 66

Latin America–Europe

Latin America–Europe Latin America–Europe Air Cargo Traffic Will Grow 3.9% per Year
Forecast Average Annual Growth, 2022–2041
Latin America and Europe continue to
work toward greater trade liberalization. 2,500

4.4%
Key trade agreements between the
2,000 3.9%

Tonnes (thousands)
European Union and countries in Latin
3.2%
America, such as the pact with Mexico History
1,500
and the Mercosur trade bloc (made 3%
up of Argentina, Brazil, Uruguay, and growth per year
Paraguay), have improved relations 1,000
in this trade flow. Current challenges Forecast
around working conditions in 500 3.9%
Mexico and political instability in growth per year
Brazil pose risks for the overall trade
2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041
outlook, but continued progress on
those agreements would support High Base Low
increased air cargo demand between
the two regions.
South America–Europe Air Cargo Traffic Will Grow 3.3% per Year
After growing at an annual rate of
3% over the past 20 years, the Latin Average Annual Growth, 2022–2041
America–Europe air cargo market is
1,400
projected to grow 3.9% per year over
3.8%
the next 20 years. The long-term air 1,200 3.3%
cargo growth outlook through 2041
Tonnes (thousands)

1,000 2.7%
shows 4.4% in the Europe-to-Latin History
America direction and 3.3% in the 2.4%
800 growth per year
opposite direction.
600
Forecast
400
3.3%
growth per year
200

2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041

High Base Low

World Air Cargo Forecast 2022–2041 67

Latin America–Europe

Air trade between South America

Central America–Europe Air Cargo Traffic Will Grow 5.2% per Year
and Europe is projected to grow an
average of 3.3% over the next 20 Average Annual Growth, 2022–2041
years. Europe-to-South America air
900
cargo traffic is forecast to grow 3.6%
800 5.8%
on average, while South America-
5.2%
to-Europe traffic is forecast to grow 700

Tonnes (thousands)
4.4%
3%, driven by European investment 600
in Brazil. The EU, incidentally, is the
500
largest foreign investor in Brazil. History
400 4.9%
The Central America–Europe market 300
growth per year
is projected to grow 5.2% on average Forecast
200
over the next 20 years. Europe-to- 5.2%
Central America traffic is forecast to 100 growth per year
grow at a rate of 5.8%, while Central
2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041
America-to-Europe traffic is forecast
High Base Low
to grow 4.1% per year through 2041.
Led by a growing trade relationship
between Mexico and the European
Union, European manufacturing within Caribbean–Europe Air Cargo Traffic Will Grow 2.8% per Year
Mexico’s borders is expected to Average Annual Growth, 2022–2041
support higher cargo traffic growth.
140
Air cargo traffic growth between 3.3%
Europe and the Caribbean has 2.8%
120
2.4%
been volatile. However, following the
Tonnes (thousands)

general upward trend over the last two 100

decades, traffic is projected to grow 80
at 2.8% per year through 2041. Air
cargo traffic from Europe to the 60
Caribbean is forecast to grow at an
40
average annual rate of 2.8%, while air History Forecast
2.2% 2.8%
cargo traffic from the Caribbean to 20 growth per year growth per year
Europe is forecast to grow 2.9% per
year over the same period. 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041
High Base Low

World Air Cargo Forecast 2022–2041 68

Latin America For the purposes of this forecast, we define Latin America as the Caribbean
and North Basin, Central America, including Mexico, and South America. We define
America North America as Canada and the United States.

Santiago, Chile
World Air Cargo Forecast 2022–2041 69
Latin America and North America

Strong Post-Pandemic by strong northbound growth. which bounced back 46% over 2020
Highlights Southbound traffic has experienced traffic, while the northbound side saw a
Recovery volatility over the last decade, with smaller, yet still notable, growth of 24%.
• The 2021 Latin America–North The Latin America–North America 2021 traffic finally returning to 2011
America air cargo market market, which represents 2.7% of the In December of 2020, member states
levels. Pre-COVID, both northbound
has grown by 21% over 2019 world’s air cargo traffic measured in of the Latin American Civil Aviation
and southbound traffic contracted in
levels. While year-over-year tonnes-kilometers and 3% measured Commission (LACAC) signed into
2019, with decreases of 3% and 5%,
growth slowed in 2022 against in tonnes, grew 31% in 2021, far action a new multilateral agreement
respectively. With the onset of the
a monumental base, it still surpassing pre-COVID levels. Despite to liberalize the region’s air cargo
pandemic, 2020 southbound traffic
remains up 22% against a 7.5% traffic drop between 2019 and services. According to ICAO, the
dropped by 15%, compared to the
2019 through the first half of 2020 due to the pandemic, recovery agreement expands traffic rights to
more modest 4% dip for northbound
the year. has been strong and apparent in all include seventh-freedom traffic rights,
flow. In 2021, traffic snapped back well
three subregions of Latin America. permitting airlines from one of the
• The Latin America air cargo beyond pre-pandemic levels, with an
LACAC member states to provide
market is still dominated by The overall Latin America–North overall growth of 31%. This growth was
all-cargo services between two other
the South America subregion, America market has been driven largely led by southbound movement,
signatory states without restrictions
with Chile, Colombia, and
Brazil collectively holding
roughly 55% of total volumes.
Latin America–North America Market Driven by South America Trade
Mexico and the Dominican
Republic are the leading trade
1,800,000 2.3% growth
partners for their respective
subregions. 1,600,000
• An evolving automotive
1,400,000
industry is drawing investment
in manufacturing and 1,200,000
extraction industries within
Traffic (tonnes)

South America and Mexico, 1,000,000

while demand continues for
800,000
perishables. Those are two
of the key drivers behind an 600,000
annual growth projection of
2.4% over the next 20 years. 400,000

200,000

2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021

South America Central America Caribbean

Source: US Trade Data, S&P Global

World Air Cargo Forecast 2022–2041 70

Latin America and North America

on routes and capacity. The current accounted for 6%. While traffic consists of goods going to North thanks to increased manufacturing
member states are Brazil, Chile, between the subregions varies, the America. In contrast, the majority of activity and post-COVID demand.
the Dominican Republic, Ecuador, Latin America–North America market Brazil’s air trade consists of goods Costa Rica, Central America’s next
Guatemala, Panama, Paraguay, Peru, generally moves in the same direction coming from North America. largest trade partner, saw a staggering
Uruguay and Venezuela. as South America, which represents increase of 34% in 2021 despite only
Central America–North America air
the large majority of the market. contracting 8% from 2019 to 2020.
The agreement was put in place to trade increased by 26% in 2021. Trade
increase the efficiency of vaccine South America–North America air trade between Mexico and North America Caribbean–North America air trade
distribution, and to enable air cargo to increased by 34% in 2021, leading accounted for 48% of the Central increased by 16% in 2021 on a traffic
better support the region’s economic the region’s post-pandemic recovery. America market. North America– flow where double-digit growth has not
recovery. If extended beyond a Chile is the largest contributor to both Mexico imports and exports reached been seen since 2014. Imports to the
temporary agreement, the liberalization the South America subregion and the near parity in 2021, with a 48% to 52% Dominican Republic, which dominates
of the air cargo market could have overall Latin America market at 30% split, respectively. Air trade both to and the subregion’s market share at 67%,
positive long-term growth implications of the subregion traffic. The majority from Mexico has seen a reversal of has increased to 72% over 2020.
for the region. of Chile’s and Colombia’s air trade traffic-contraction trends since 2018,

Latin America–U.S.
South America Makes up 75% of Traffic With North America
Air Cargo Market
The United States is Latin America’s South America Central America Caribbean
major North American trading partner,
2%
accounting for 90% of bilateral airborne 3% 5% 3% 7%
7%
cargo traffic, with a 65% majority of the 8%
2%
30% 7% 5%
traffic heading northbound.
6%
In analyzing air traffic growth, we divide 9% 7%
75% 19% 48% 6%
Latin America into three subregions: 1,220,000 tonnes 300,000 tonnes 100,000 tonnes
11%
the Caribbean Basin, Central America, 8%

and South America. During 2021, 19% 67%

South America accounted for 75% 26% 20%
of the total 1.6-million-tonne Latin
America–North America air cargo
market. Central America accounted Chile Argentina Mexico Nicaragua Dominican Jamaica
for 19%, and the Caribbean Basin Colombia Peru Costa Rica Panama Republic Barbados
Brazil Other Guatemala Other Trinidad and Grenada
Tobago
Ecuador Honduras Other
Haiti
Source: US Trade Data, S&P Global

World Air Cargo Forecast 2022–2041 71

Latin America and North America

Air Trade Commodities Perishables Drive Latin America-to-North America Trade

Commodities data from 2021 show
an air cargo mix similar to those of 1,060,000 Tonnes
previous years. Perishables 70%
Northbound movements of goods from
Latin America is primarily made up of Machinery and Electrical Equipment 8%
perishables at 70%. Fresh-cut flowers
Small Packages and Documents 6%
and seafood account for 42% and 38%
of perishable exports, while fruits and Textiles, Leather, and Apparel 3%
vegetables account for another 13%.
Computers, Office, Communications,
Flows from North America to Latin 3%
and Professional Equipment
America consist of higher-value
Chemicals and Related Products 2%
manufactured goods, such as industrial
machinery, chemicals and related Other 8%
products, and professional equipment.
Source: US Trade Data, S&P Global

Industrial Goods Drive North America-to-Latin America Trade

575,000 Tonnes

Machinery and Electrical Equipment 30%

Chemicals and Related Products 18%

Computers, Office, Communications,

13%
and Professional Equipment

Small Packages and Documents 11%

Transportation Equipment and Parts 6%

Metals and Metal Products 5%

Perishables 5%

Other 12%

Source: US Trade Data, S&P Global

World Air Cargo Forecast 2022–2041 72

Latin America and North America

Latin America–North private consumption. In addition,

Latin America–North America Air Cargo Traffic Will Grow 2.4% per Year
Mexico, Central America, and parts
America Forecast of the Caribbean have benefited from Average Annual Growth, 2022–2041
The total Latin America–North America stronger U.S. growth, via trade and
market for air cargo services is 3,000
increases in remittances. With the 2.6%
forecast to grow 2.4% per year from 2.4%
signing of the United States–Mexico–
2022 to 2041. 2,500
Canada Agreement (USMCA), trade 1.7%

Tonnes (thousands)
North America and Latin America risks have decreased for the long term.
2,000
are recovering from the pandemic at The agreement, however, may make
varying rates, with cargo traffic seeing trade more difficult in the short term. 1,500
a robust snapback. Both regions For instance, in the automotive
depend heavily on manufacturing, industry, tariffs are levied (increasing 1,000
which was put on hold during the History Forecast
over time) if 40%–75% of the vehicle 2.3% 2.4%
pandemic. As production opened is not made of U.S. materials by U.S. 500 growth per year growth per year
up and e-commerce demand labor. USMCA will make it costlier for
accelerated, traffic recovered rapidly in original equipment manufacturers to
2021. While the near term is expected 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041
have parts built in Mexico and flown
to be volatile due to economic across the border. Over the last two High Base Low
dynamics, the outlook is for steadier years, the impact of this agreement
long-term growth. was likely overshadowed by the effects
South America–North America Air Cargo Traffic Will Grow 2.4% per Year
Prior to the pandemic, the combined of the pandemic. As economies and
trade return to normal, we expect the Average Annual Growth, 2022–2041
effects of overall global growth and
the partial recovery of commodity agreement to play a larger role in this
2,500
prices have helped support the traffic flow. 2.6%
2.4%
Latin American countries that rely Over the next 20 years, South
2,000
on commodities exports. More America’s GDP is forecast to grow 3%
Tonnes (thousands)
1.7%
importantly, many countries in Latin per year, while Central America and the
America have also made efforts to Caribbean Basin are forecast to grow 1,500
improve economic management by 2.4% and 2.7% per year, respectively,
implementing policies designed to through 2041. North America’s GDP 1,000
help stabilize exchange rates, reduce is forecast to grow at an average
fiscal deficits, and control inflation. In annual rate of 1.9% over the next 20 History Forecast
many countries there have been signs years. Along with variables such as 500 2.4% 2.4%
of improved labor markets, boosting growth per year growth per year

2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041

High Base Low

World Air Cargo Forecast 2022–2041 73

Latin America and North America

retail, industrial production and trade A near-term opportunity for the region
Trade of Industrial Machinery from the US to Chile Spiked in 2021, 4× 2019 Levels
of goods affect the forecast growth is lithium mining. South America’s
in the region. For the Latin America– “Lithium Triangle”—Argentina, Bolivia,
40 4X
North America air trade market, this and Chile—collectively holds more

Airborne Metric Tonnes (thousands)

is expected to result in 2.6% growth than half of the world’s lithium supply.
per year from Latin America to North As the world moves toward a future
30
America, while air trade from North of clean energy, demand for batteries
America to Latin America will grow (and this short-supplied metal) has
1.8%. intensified and caused the price of
20
lithium to skyrocket. With the setting 33.7K
The South America–North America
of ambitious 2030–2050 global
air trade market is forecast to grow
decarbonization goals, lithium could
2.4% per year over the next 20 years. 10
develop into a fundamental part of
Traffic from South America to North
South America’s long-term trade flow. 8.0K 6.5K
America will grow 2.7% per year, while
Investment for the further development
growth for traffic from North America
of extraction and production of lithium 2019 2020 2020
to South America is projected at 1.8%.
is already underway, with bilateral
This takes into account generally Source: S&P Global
talks happening domestically and
positive outlooks for the South
funding for lithium projects coming
American economy, while considering
from overseas. In fact, the trade of
its potential risks. The South America-
industrial machinery from the U.S.
to-North America market will continue
to Chile has spiked at four times the
moderate growth.
2019 levels. The industrial machinery
category includes mining equipment,
electrical equipment, and other types
of machinery that could be used for
lithium extraction operations.

World Air Cargo Forecast 2022–2041 74

Latin America and North America

In Central America, trade regulations The Caribbean–North America air

Central America–North America Air Cargo Traffic Will Grow 2.4% per Year
in the USMCA are expected to impact trade market is expected to grow 1.8%
air cargo more than those of previous per year during the next 20 years. Average Annual Growth, 2022–2041
agreements, resulting in an air trade Northbound traffic will grow 1.9% per
700
forecast of 2.4% growth per year over year, while the opposite direction,
the next 20 years. Most at risk, traffic North America to Caribbean, will 600
2.9%
from Central America to North America grow at about 1.6%. The Caribbean 2.4%
will grow at a rate of 2.7% per year. subregion has recovered at a slower 500 1.9%

Tonnes (thousands)
Because a large percentage of the pace than both South America and
commodities traded to Mexico includes Central America, finishing 2021 only 400
production-related items (machinery, 3% up over 2019 levels. Although
300
chemicals, etc.), this trade deal will Caribbean traffic is expected to return
also affect the southbound flow, with to fundamental growth, it will be at 200 History Forecast
growth of 1.8% over the next 20 years. a slightly lower level than previously 1.8% 2.4%
The costs of labor and of migrating anticipated. 100 growth per year growth per year
manufacturing may prove greater than
those of the increased tariffs outlined in 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041
the USMCA, allowing for some upside High Base Low
to the region’s growth. Overall, Central
America’s outlook still remains positive,
given the economic growth projections. Caribbean–North America Air Cargo Traffic Will Grow 1.8% per Year
Average Annual Growth, 2022–2041

250

2.1%
200 1.8%
1.2%
Tonnes (thousands)

150

100

History Forecast
50 1.6% 1.8%
growth per year growth per year

2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041

High Base Low

World Air Cargo Forecast 2022–2041 75

Middle East For the purposes of this forecast, we define the Middle East as Bahrain, Iran,
Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Oman, the Palestinian territories, Qatar,
Saudi Arabia, Syria, the United Arab Emirates, and Yemen.

Dubai, United Arab Emirates

World Air Cargo Forecast 2022–2041 76
Middle East

A Vital Crossroads for Trade Middle East Air Trade Grew 2.9% per Year
Highlights
The Middle East continues to be a Average Annual Growth, 2011–2021
• M
 iddle East airlines more than dynamic region for both import/export
doubled their revenue cargo flows and transit cargo. It remains an 2,400
ton kilometers (RTKs) over the important crossroads for air trade in
last decade with a compound the Eastern Hemisphere and for Middle 2,000
annual growth rate of 7.6%. Eastern air cargo operators, with the

Tonnes (thousands)
use of both freighters and belly cargo 1,600
• 5
 7% of tonnage handled by
growing in importance.
Middle Eastern airports is
in-transit cargo originating The COVID-19 pandemic created a 1,200
and destined for other global unique but temporary market dynamic
regions. for both air cargo capacity and 800
demand. Border closures and major
• E
 urope is the largest trading
contractions of passenger flights, 400
partner for the Middle East,
including many connections through
accounting for 29% of
the Middle East, significantly reduced
tonnage and for an annual 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021
the amount of belly cargo capacity
growth forecast of 2.3% per
aboard the region’s large widebody Intra-Middle East: 3.9% Middle East Middle East
year for the next two decades. Exports: 3.3% Imports: 2.3%
fleet during most of 2020 and part
of 2021. Critical demand for virus Source: IHS S&P Global
containment and protective equipment,
as well as many other commodities,
relied heavily on air cargo transport Europe Maintains Largest Trading Partner Share
during the pandemic. Significantly
constrained belly capacity contributed 3% 1% 3% 1%
to strong yields and increased profits
for Middle East cargo operators as 8% 8%
22% 20%
a result.

22% 2019 21% 2021 Middle East

3,700,000 3,500,000 Europe
Tonnes Tonnes Americas
29% Asia Pacific
26%
South Asia
18% 18% Africa
Other

Source: S&P Global, Boeing Analysis

World Air Cargo Forecast 2022–2041 77

Middle East

Air cargo moving to, from, and within to and after the start of the pandemic passenger travel and air cargo traffic,
the Middle East will account for an in early 2020. Air cargo traffic stayed as flights were re-routed around the
estimated 8.3% of global air cargo relatively resilient due to strong airspaces of the opposing countries.
tonnage and 9.7% in RTKs in 2021. increases in dedicated freighter Despite this challenge, strong air cargo
That trade grew 2.9% between utilization and capacity flown. growth has continued for Qatar. Doha’s
2011–2021, a decline of 2.1% from the Hamad International Airport surpassed
Oil and natural gas are the major
prior 10-year growth rate, reflecting Dubai International Airport in cargo
revenue-producing commodities in
pandemic impacts. Overall trade tonnage handled in 2020, and retained
the Middle East. Oil prices remained
volumes fell from 3.7 million metric its position as the region’s top airport
elevated in 2021, contributing to a GDP
tonnes in 2019 to 3.5 million metric by this metric in 2021.
increase of 3.9%. Strong economic
tonnes in 2021, with air cargo tonnage
growth continues into 2022 with a
contracting by 6% compared to 2019.
further forecast increase of 5.9%—the
However, the region’s cargo airlines
highest regional gain globally, and one
increased their air cargo traffic in
of the few regions with a higher growth
terms of freight-tonne kilometers by
forecast than was seen in January
10% in 2021 vs 2019. This growth
2022.
was achieved despite belly capacity
on Middle East passenger flights In mid-2017, the Qatar diplomatic crisis
contracting by 36% for the years up brought disruption that impacted both

World Air Cargo Forecast 2022–2041 78

 Middle East

Transit Hub Infrastructure Asia–Europe routes. The Middle East’s Large passenger widebodies and large
strategic location has been an asset to freighters are essential to Middle East
and Growing Air Cargo the creation of global superconnector airline fleets, and to network strategies
Fleets airlines in the region, as demonstrated for maximizing cargo payloads and
The strategic location of the Middle by their rising status among the top air revenues. Large passenger widebodies
East positions it well to continue as cargo carriers worldwide, as they utilize currently account for 22% of the
a transit point for air cargo moving both dedicated freighter and passenger region’s in-service passenger fleet—the
between Europe, Asia, and Africa. widebody belly cargo capacity. The highest share of any other global
Just 43% of the region’s total air cargo region’s airlines more than doubled region. Additionally, 25% of the Middle
tonnage originates and/or terminates their cargo ton kilometers in the last East’s backlog and 43% of forecast
in Middle East countries, with 57% decade, a compound annual growth demand, according to our Commercial
of the air cargo transferring through rate of 7.6%. In addition to its status Market Outlook, is in this aircraft
Middle East airports to other regions. as an air connection hub, the region segment. The facts that large freighters
The Russia–Ukraine conflict, coupled also has a significant sea/air market, in comprise 69% of the region’s freighter
with reduced overflights of the vast which goods from South Asia arrive in fleet, and that Middle Eastern airlines
expanses of Russia, will likely boost the Middle East on ships and continue account for 30% of the global backlog
transit cargo flows through the Middle to other regions by air. for this freighter size class, support the
East as a stopover point on key growth outlook for the region’s flows.

Middle East–Europe Air Trade Grew 2.6% per Year Middle East–East Asia Air Trade Grew 1.3% per Year
Average Annual Growth, 2011–2021 Average Annual Growth, 2011–2021

1,000 750
Tonnes (thousands)

Tonnes (thousands)
750
500

500

250
250

2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021
Europe to Middle East Middle East to Europe Asia-Pacific to Middle East: 0.4% Middle East to Asia-Pacific: 4.2%

Source: S&P Global, Boeing Analysis Source: S&P Global, Boeing Analysis

World Air Cargo Forecast 2022–2041 79

Middle East

Moderate Growth for Middle will continue to boost service and

Middle East-to-Europe Air Trade Will Grow 1.2% per Year
contribute to air cargo traffic growth
East-Europe Traffic opportunities between the Middle Average Annual Growth, 2022–2041
Air cargo traffic between the Middle East and Europe. Reductions in
East and Europe has grown moderately 400

Airborne Metric Tonnes (thousands)

Russian overflights will likely also boost 2.0%
since 2011. Imports from Europe, much opportunities for growth in the region.
greater than exports from the Middle 1.2%
Additionally, increasing local exports, 300
East, have grown 2.7% per year, while coupled with the continued European 1.2%
exports to Europe have grown by 2.3%. market for goods transshipped from
Accounting for 994,000 tonnes of Asia and Africa, will support healthy 200
air cargo in 2021, trade with Europe growth in the Middle East air cargo
represented 29% of the Middle East’s market. Finally, a growing middle class
international air cargo market. The in the Middle East will stimulate modest 100 History Forecast
air cargo growth in the future. 2.3% 1.2%
primary commodities shipped to growth per year growth per year
Europe are metals and chemicals. Key variables in the long-term growth
2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041
Leading commodities shipped from outlook are oil price levels, which will
Europe include meats and seafood, have a significant effect on Middle East High Base Low
agricultural products, chemicals, and demand for products from Europe via Source: S&P Global, Boeing Analysis
machinery. Overall air cargo traffic in GDP and per capita income levels.
both directions has averaged 2.6% In addition, the rate and extent of
annual growth since 2011. diversification from oil-related industries Europe-to-Middle East Air Trade Will Grow 2.6% per Year
will affect long-term growth prospects Average Annual Growth, 2022–2041
Middle East–Europe for air trade to and from the region. In
particular, the competitiveness of local 1,600

Airborne Metric Tonnes (thousands)

Forecast products, including perishables, fish,
3.4%

Overall air cargo between the Middle 2.6%

textiles, and the products of emerging
East and Europe will grow at an 1,200 1.9%
light industries, will determine whether
average annual rate of 2.3% between the long-term growth trend leans more
2022 and 2041. toward high or low projections. 800
As passenger networks continue
to recover, direct flights connecting
production centers in Asia and Europe 400 History Forecast
2.7% 2.6%
growth per year growth per year
2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041
High Base Low

Source: S&P Global, Boeing Analysis

World Air Cargo Forecast 2022–2041 80

Middle East

Middle East–East Asia to 77% of overall flow’s traffic by

Middle East-to-East Asia Air Trade Will Grow 2.1% per Year
2041. East Asia’s continued growth
Shows Strong Growth as the center of global manufacturing Average Annual Growth, 2022–2041
In 2021, East Asia traffic accounted combined with strong belly cargo
for 21% of the air cargo market in the 400

Airborne Metric Tonnes (thousands)

capacity growth to and from East Asia
Middle East, at 746,000 tonnes. Air 2.6%
will support this traffic growth. Strong 2.1%
cargo shipments arriving from the East e-commerce growth in the Middle 1.7%
300
Asia region consisted predominantly East, forecast to grow at an average
of textiles, machinery and electrical rate of 18% over the next three years,
equipment, and computer equipment. will also drive imports. Although total 200
Imports from the East Asia region have cargo traffic between the two regions
increased at an annual rate of 0.4% decreased by 6% from 2019 to 2021
since 2011, including a reduction of due to COVID supply chain disruptions 100 History Forecast
9% from 2019 to 2021. The air cargo and passenger flight restrictions, which 4.2% 2.1%
export flow to the East Asia region is growth per year growth per year
severely restricted belly cargo capacity,
relatively small (one quarter of total the strong recovery seen thus far in 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041
trade with the region), but it grew at 2022 illustrates the forecast’s long-term High Base Low
a robust 4.2% per year over the past drivers of growth. As we have seen
Source: S&P Global, Boeing Analysis
decade. with the Europe trade flow forecasts,
Overall air cargo between the Middle the competitiveness of local products,
East and East Asia will grow at an as well as Middle Eastern economic East Asia-to-Middle East Air Trade Will Grow 3.5% per Year
average annual rate of 3.1% between growth, will be strong determinants
Average Annual Growth, 2022–2041
2022 and 2041. of whether the Middle East–East
Asia trade forecasts trend toward 1,400

Airborne Metric Tonnes (thousands)

Air cargo to the Middle East from the baseline, low-, or high-growth 4.4%
East Asia will continue as the primary scenarios. 1,200
3.5%
directional flow of traffic, increasing
1000 2.6%
800

600

400
History Forecast
200 0.4% 3.5%
growth per year growth per year
2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041
High Base Low

Source: S&P Global, Boeing Analysis

World Air Cargo Forecast 2022–2041 81

North America For the purposes of this forecast, we define North America as the
United States and Canada.

Los Angeles, USA

World Air Cargo Forecast 2022–2041 82
North America

Market Overview and accounts for over 95% of the North

Highlights American market, grew 14% in 2020
Recent Dynamics and 7.8% in 2021, while Canadian
• E
 -commerce growth will Air cargo moving to, from, and domestic air cargo (with 2% of the
continue to boost overall air within the United States and Canada market) declined 1.4% and grew 7.1%,
cargo growth prospects, accounts for 10.7% of the world’s air respectively.
particularly over the next 10 cargo traffic in tonne-kilometers, and
years. 17.1% in tonnage. For 2021, United States–Canada trans-
border traffic comprised just 1% of the
• U.S. manufacturing Overall, North American air cargo North American market.
resurgence and supply traffic grew 13.3% in 2020 and 7.7% in
chain diversification are also 2021. U.S. domestic air cargo, which
bolstering the region’s air
cargo traffic outlook.
• In the next 20 years, North
US Domestic Has Captured 95%+ Share of North American Air Cargo Market
America’s new freighter
growth and replacement 35
demand will top all but Asia
Pacific’s, at 905 units.
30

25
RTKS (billions)

20

15

10

2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021

US–Canada Transborder Canada Domestic US Domestic

Source: CargoFacts

World Air Cargo Forecast 2022–2041 83

North America

E-Commerce Accelerates chain disruptions, and air cargo

US Domestic Air Cargo Market Has Grown 3.5% per Year Since 1980
growth remained strong. Supply chains
U.S. Domestic Air Cargo designed around relatively steady 35
Market Resurgence demand were unable to keep pace 3.5% growth

The U.S. domestic air cargo market, with rapidly changing markets. 30
the world’s largest, has seen strong Higher prices did little to temper
growth in recent years, after the market demand. 25

RTKS (billions)
relatively flat volumes that followed Through the first eight months of 2022,
the global financial crisis. From 2010 20
the U.S. domestic air cargo market
to 2016, the U.S. domestic air cargo continued to show signs of strong 15
compound annual growth rate was growth, up nearly 16% compared to
1.3%, not quite one third of the long- pre-pandemic 2019. However, year 10
term (since 1980) growth rate of 3.5%. over year traffic growth was down
3.5%, compared to 2021’s record- 5
The market surged by 14% in 2017,
as a strong U.S. economy reflected breaking levels. Weakness in the global
robust trade with global markets, air cargo market reflected macro- 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
solid consumer confidence, and U.S. economic dynamics, likely to continue
Distribution Networks Express Mail
government tax breaks. Volume growth into 2023, exerting pressure on U.S.
Charter Scheduled Freight
cooled, relative to 2017 levels, in 2018 domestic air cargo traffic growth.
and 2019, with increases of 4.6% and In recent years, the U.S. domestic
Source: CargoFacts

3% respectively, due to tariffs and a market saw substantial growth in the

weakening global economy. distribution networks business model
Despite the economic impacts of that supports e-commerce, and in the
COVID-19, air cargo growth was expansion of networks to support B2B
surprisingly strong in 2020. A surging and B2C customers. Express-carrier
e-commerce sector boosted air cargo and U.S. Postal Service traffic reached
traffic by 14% compared to 2019. all-time highs in 2021, reflecting the
strength of e-commerce demand.
In 2021, with widespread vaccinations Express carriers and distribution
easing lockdown constraints, networks remain the dominant sectors
e-commerce growth slowed of U.S. domestic air cargo, comprising
somewhat. However, pent-up 71% of the market, a notable increase
consumer demand, combined with a from 66% a decade ago.
tight labor market, exacerbated supply

World Air Cargo Forecast 2022–2041 84

 North America

U.S. Trucking Faces Multiple considered an obstacle to driver grew at a tepid rate of 1%. The speed
productivity. Instead, they helped and reliability advantage that air cargo
Challenges trucking companies identify inefficient offers, along with strong growth in
The U.S. trucking industry faces a wait times at shipping and receiving e-commerce, have made air cargo
number of challenges. Increasing centers. This discovery led them a necessary alternative in meeting
congestion in urban areas has slowed to improve wait times throughout market demands, despite its price
the flow of goods and raised fuel costs. their networks, and has served to premium.
A shortage of long-haul truck drivers compensate for some lost capacity.
is nudging wages upward, a trend
exacerbated by high numbers of driver From 2016 through 2021, the domestic
retirements. air cargo industry has seen an
acceleration of tonnage growth at
Truck electronic logging devices, 8.6% annually, while trucking tonnage
required since 2017, originally were growth during the same time period

Air Cargo Tonnage Growth Has Diverged From Trucking Growth Since 2016
US Domestic Trucking and Air Cargo Tonnage

2.5

2.0
Tonnage, Indexed to 1990

1.5

1.0

0.5

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Trucking Air Cargo

Source: Cargo Facts, American Trucking Associations (past years’ trucking numbers have some adjustments from prior WACF data)

World Air Cargo Forecast 2022–2041 85

 North America

Canadian Growth Exceeds U.S.-to-Canada Traffic In 2019, for example, this commodity
category made up about two thirds
Projections Dominates Transborder of the total tonnage northbound
The Canadian domestic market Air Cargo to Canada. In 2020 and 2021, this
accounts for a small proportion of the Approximately 90% of Canada’s remained in the 35–45% range,
total North American air cargo market, inhabitants live within 100 miles of the reinforcing the importance of this
but traffic has grown significantly in U.S. border. As a result, transborder northbound trade category.
the past five years, averaging 8.5% trade is heavily weighted toward less
annually. This growth has been driven Southbound air cargo tonnage is more
expensive truck cargo transport. diverse than the northbound flow, and
largely by e-commerce, with the
express operators who comprise nearly Historically, transborder air cargo includes such commodities as motor
70% of Canada’s domestic market has been dominated by northbound vehicle parts, machine components,
spurring robust, double-digit growth tonnage, primarily due to deliveries of and fresh fish and seafood.
from 2018 through 2021 as they built civilian aircraft, aircraft engines, and
out their networks. spare parts from the U.S. to Canada.

Northbound Tonnage Continues to Exceed Southbound Figures

250

200
Tonnes (thousands)

150

100

50

2001 2006 2011 2016 2021

United States to Canada Canada to United States

Source: US Census Bureau, T-100

World Air Cargo Forecast 2022–2041 86

North America

Growth in the transborder flow—slightly Supply chain reshoring and risk in 2017, and by 2019 express
negative from 2011 to 2021—has mitigation are expected to spark traffic—at nearly 12.9 billion revenue
been lackluster. Nonetheless, the a renaissance in North American tonne-kilometers (RTK)—finally
potential for growth in cross-border manufacturing. A significant portion surpassed levels not seen since 2007.
e-commerce, along with continuing of this increase is expected to Much of the recent growth can be
deliveries of commercial airplanes, will involve the manufacture of high-value attributed to renewed interest and
support a slow yet positive growth rate components—commodities typically activity in expanding U.S. domestic
over the forecast period. transported via air cargo. express networks to expedite the
movement of e-commerce goods.
Retail sales, a proxy for e-commerce,
Economic Outlook Drivers Traffic has continued to climb, reaching
experienced relatively stable growth
nearly 21 billion RTKs in 2021. Freighter
The U.S. and Canadian economies in the U.S. prior to the pandemic, but
network growth has largely been
contracted 3.4% and 5.2%, in 2020 fell 0.7%. (By comparison,
driven by Amazon as it builds out
respectively, in 2020, as a result of the Canadian sales dropped 2.1%.)
its network and fleet to source more
pandemic’s impact. In 2021, however, However, retail sales in North America
of its deliveries, now approaching
GDP growth for the United States did not fall nearly as far as they did
100 aircraft to support fulfillment
and Canada rebounded to 5.7% and in 2009 after the global financial
operations.
4.5%, respectively. For the next 20 crisis and, in 2021, growth rates were
years, North American GDP growth robust at 14.3% and 8.1% for the
is forecast at 1.9%, identical to the U.S. and Canada, respectively. This
2001–2021 GDP growth rate. strength reflected the significant shift
in consumer spending from services
Unsurprisingly, industrial production, to products during the pandemic.
a bellwether of air cargo growth, has In addition, e-commerce growth
experienced dramatic swings since accelerated, providing additional
the pandemic. Before the pandemic, support for growth in air cargo.
in 2019, U.S. industrial production
grew at a paltry 0.7%, a reflection of After increasing consistently during
weakening global growth. In 2020, this the 1980s and 1990s, express carrier
growth declined by 7%, but bounced cargo traffic flattened between 2001
back to 4.9% in 2021. Despite the and 2007 as the market matured.
slowing global economy, U.S. industrial Traffic remained flat through 2016
production is expected to grow at 4.2% following the global financial crisis.
in 2022. However, traffic began to recover

World Air Cargo Forecast 2022–2041 87

North America

Regional Forecast North American Air Cargo Traffic Will Grow 3.1% per Year`
Supply chain risk mitigation, Average Annual Growth, 2022–2041
e-commerce growth, and favorable
U.S. demographics combine to provide 70
a strong foundation for continued 3.5%
60 3.1%
domestic air cargo growth.
2.6%
50

RTKS (billions)
Air cargo traffic growth in North
America is expected to average 4.3% 40
over the next 10 years, and 3.1%
over the full 20-year period, reflecting 30
the continued rise of e-commerce, a 20 History Forecast
resurgence in domestic manufacturing, 5.1% 3.1%
and favorable demographics. 10 growth per year growth per year

The U.S. domestic market will maintain 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041
the dominant share of the total North
High Base Low
American market, with over 95% of
total RTKs.
The U.S. domestic market is projected US Domestic Air Cargo Traffic Will Grow 3.1% per Year
to grow at an average annual rate Average Annual Growth, 2022–2041
of 4.3% during the first 10 years, as
e-commerce market share grows and 60 3.5%
providers continue to build networks 3.1%
and fleets, with growth leveling out 50 2.6%
in the second 10 years, for 20-year
RTKS (billions)

(2022–2041) growth of 3.1%. 40

30

20
History Forecast
10
5.2% 3.1%
growth per year growth per year

2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041

High Base Low

World Air Cargo Forecast 2022–2041 88

North America

Similarly, the Canadian domestic

Canadian Domestic Air Cargo Traffic Will Grow 3.1% per Year
market is forecast to grow at a
higher rate in the first 10 years, due Average Annual Growth, 2022–2041
to e-commerce growth, and then to
1.6
level out at a lower long-term growth 3.5%
rate, for a 20-year growth rate of 3.2% 1.4 3.1%
2.8%
from 2022 to 2041. The Canadian 1.2

RTKS (billions)
domestic market will average 4.4%
growth for the first 10 years, and 3.1% 1.0
over the 20-year period from 2022 0.8
to 2041. In the forecast period, we
0.6
expect that network buildouts driven
by e-commerce growth, in addition 0.4 History Forecast
6.4% 3.1%
to near-term capacity additions that 0.2 growth per year growth per year
Canadian domiciled carriers are
planning, will continue to boost air 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041
cargo growth in Canada’s domestic High Base Low
market.
Trans-border air cargo traffic is forecast
to grow at 1.4% over the 20-year US–Canada Transborder Air Cargo Traffic Will Grow 1.4% per Year
period, in contrast to the slight negative Average Annual Growth, 2022–2041
growth rate observed from 2011 to
2021. This forecast projects dynamics 0.6
closer to the trans-border traffic trends
0.5 1.8%
of the past 20 years. Northbound traffic 1.4%
will continue to exceed southbound 0.9%
RTKS (billions)

0.4
traffic, reflecting the differences in
manufacturing and economic output 0.3
between Canada and the U.S.
0.2
History Forecast
0.1
-1.6% 1.4%
growth per year growth per year

2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041

High Base Low

World Air Cargo Forecast 2022–2041 89

Russia and For this forecast, we define Russia and Central Asia as 12 of the 15
Central Asia republics of the former Soviet Union: Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia,
Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, the Russian Federation, Tajikistan,
Turkmenistan, Ukraine, and Uzbekistan. This region is bound by common
ties of history, business, and language.

Almaty, Kazakhstan
World Air Cargo Forecast 2022–2041 90
Russia and Central Asia

Air Trade Rebounds at 1.3 million tonnes in 2011. Levels

East Asia and Europe: Leading Air Trade Partners
remained nearly the same in 2012,
The Russia and Central Asia market
and fell modestly in 2013. Contraction
accounts for approximately 1.2% of the
in the region’s air cargo volumes
world’s total air cargo traffic in tonne-
gathered pace in 2014 and 2015, as
kilometers, and 2.2% in tonnage.
investment in extractive industries
Air trade originating in or destined for slowed, consumer spending fell, Domestic Russia: 35%
Russia and Central Asia reached an and trade sanctions were imposed 1.28M East Asia & Oceania: 24%
estimated 1.28 million tonnes in 2021, on Russia for its support of the Tonnes
Europe: 20%
based on the region’s airport statistics. conflict in Ukraine. Regional air trade North America: 4%
Growth averaged -0.4% from 2011 to expanded 10% and 14% in 2016 Intra-Russia and Central Asia: 3%
2021, based on tonnage handled at and 2017, respectively, as the world Other Domestic Russia and Central Asia: 2%
airports. Principal markets in the region economy recovered, commodity prices Other: 12%
include domestic Russia, Asia, and stabilized, and Russia reoriented much
Sources: TKP, FAVT, ACI, airport statistics, Boeing research
Europe, with Russia commanding 74% of its international air trade toward
of regional air commerce because of its Asia rather than Europe. However, this
size and economic concentration. The period of high growth ended in 2018
Moscow city market was particularly as overall world trade levels began to Airport Air Cargo Traffic Near Pre-Pandemic Levels
important, as it comprised 50% of the weaken in the latter part of that year.
total Russian market, and 37% of air The onset of the COVID-19 pandemic 1,500
trade for the entire region, in 2021. in 2020 led to a 13% drop in overall
regional air trade, followed by a 21%
Helped by high oil and gas prices,
rebound in 2021.

Tonnes (thousands)
Russia and Central Asia air trade
1,000
expanded 50% after 2009, peaking

500

2006 2011 2016 2021

Central Asian Republics Caucasus Republics

Ukraine, Belarus, Moldova Russian Federation
Sources: TKP, FAVT, ACI, airport statistics, Boeing research

World Air Cargo Forecast 2022–2041 91

Russia and Central Asia

Domestic Trade Since 2014, sanctions have reshaped 256,000 tonnes, of which about
the region’s international air trade, 90% were imports from Europe.
Domestic air trade is a vital part of particularly for Russia. Until 2015, Air imports consisted primarily of
commerce in this expansive region, the region’s largest air trade partner intermediate manufactured goods
particularly in Russia. In 2021, airports was Europe. Over the past decade, (subcomponents such as automobile
reported that Russian domestic air however, East Asia had eclipsed parts), industrial machinery, apparel,
cargo comprised more than 452,000 Europe as the region’s biggest air trade flowers, and pharmaceutical and
tonnes, although airline reports partner, reaching an estimated 307,000 medical products. Airborne exports
showed only about half of that total. tonnes in 2021. Furthermore, since to Europe, while much smaller than
The region’s vast distances and 2016, e-commerce-related air imports, air imports, consisted of intermediate
relatively underdeveloped surface particularly into Russia from East Asia, manufactured goods, industrial
transportation links often necessitate have been key drivers in the region’s air machinery, jewelry, food products, and
air transport for moving goods and cargo growth. aerospace equipment.
industrial materials, especially to
remote oil and gas extraction projects
in the Arctic regions, Siberia, and the Imports and Exports
Russian Far East. Along with Moscow, Demand for electronics, apparel, and
leading air freight cities include other consumer goods—particularly
Ekaterinburg, Khabarovsk, Novosibirsk, from China and other East Asian
St. Petersburg, and Vladivostok. The countries—has helped make Russia
domestic markets of the regional bloc’s and Central Asia–East Asia traffic one
other 11 countries totaled 25,000 of the region’s strongest flows. In 2002,
tonnes, according to airport figures. however, Russia implemented customs
regulations that curbed direct air import
to Russia from East Asia, leading some
International Trade Partners importers to transport Russia-bound
International trade, both intraregional freight to nearby countries by air before
and interregional, accounted for bringing it into Russia by truck, a
799,000 tonnes of regional air cargo dynamic that persists.
in 2021. Of that, about 495,000
tonnes flowed to and from Russia. While international air trade with East
Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Ukraine, and Asia has grown faster in the past
Uzbekistan account for most of the decade, Russia and Central Asia–
remaining tonnage. Russia and Europe air cargo flows connected
Central Asia international air trade to Europe were significant until early
was focused chiefly on European 2022. Total regional air trade with
and East Asian nations. Europe in 2021 totaled an estimated

World Air Cargo Forecast 2022–2041 92

Russia and Central Asia

Significant Transit Air those operating Soviet-era-designed

Tonnage Moved by Russia and Central Asia-Domiciled Operators
freighters, have served various niche
Cargo Volumes industry markets. This market totaled
Russia and Central Asia-domiciled more than 84,000 tonnes in 2021.
carriers move considerable transit
cargo. To accurately assess those
traffic volumes, it is necessary to
The Role of Former Military
distinguish between true origin-and- Freighters 982,000
destination traffic and cargo flights that Russia and Central Asia-based airlines Tonnes Transit traffic via Russia
stop in the region in transit to countries operate a significant number of former and Central Asia Domiciled
Freighter Operators: 91%
outside the region. Locally based Soviet military turboprop and jet
Charter traffic on
operators carry a significant portion airplanes on charter freight flights. Military-Designed
of international cargo on scheduled Freighters: 9%
international flights that pass through Following the end of the Soviet Union,
Russia and Central Asia. the region saw a dramatic increase Sources: TKP, airline reports, Boeing research
in the number of former military
In the 1990s, Russian and Central aircraft repurposed for charter air
Asia-based airlines began to tap air cargo services. The influx of readily Military-Design Freighters Decline in Russia and Central Asia Fleets
freight demand between East Asia and available freighter capacity in the 1990s
Western Europe, taking advantage of corresponded with a surge in new air 600
their central location to serve routes in cargo carriers attracted by the low
the region-to-region market, and often acquisition cost of these aircraft. 500
transiting their home-country markets
without commercial stops. By 2021, The unique loading capabilities of
Russian- or Soviet-built freighters, 400
international transit traffic carried by
local freighter operators reached an coupled with their ability to operate
from airports with lagging infrastructure 300
estimated 898,000 tonnes.
investment, have enabled charter-
Locally based operators also provide flight operators to move freight that is 200
charter services for multinational firms, dimensionally too large, or too heavy,
nongovernmental organizations, and for civilian widebody freighters. Most 100
foreign governments, carrying freight of this outsized cargo traffic does not
to and from markets unconnected with originate or terminate in Russia and 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2022*
their countries of domicile. For the past Central Asia. Stored In Service
30+ years, Russia and Central Asia- *As of 30 September 2022
based freighter operators, particularly Source: Cirium

World Air Cargo Forecast 2022–2041 93

Russia and Central Asia

In the past two decades, the number Outlook For the 2002–2021 period, true origin-
of Russian- and Soviet-built aircraft destination air trade for the Russia and
The February, 2022, Russian invasion
in service has declined, as aging Central Asia region expanded at an
of Ukraine has clouded the prospects
freighters have been stored or fully average annual rate of 2%, with Russia
of this vast region. By March, many
retired. As of third-quarter 2022, growing 1.3% on average, but Central
nations had imposed economic and
about 84 locally built freighters were Asia growing much faster, at 6.2%.
trade sanctions on Russia. Both
serving cargo markets, a decline of These historic growth rates may offer
Russian and Ukrainian airspace were
more than 400 aircraft since the peak some guidance regarding this regional
closed to the airlines of many countries,
of 520 in 1995. The region’s airlines market’s long-term growth potential.
including those based in Western
have been augmenting or upgrading
Europe and North America, severely On a positive note, several established
their fleets with Western-built freighters
disrupting air trade between East and start-up freighter operators based
in response to such issues as aging
Asia and Western Europe. In October, in the Central Asia and Caucasus
hardware, high fuel consumption, and
Eurocontrol forecast that Russian and regions have announced freighter
community objections to noise.
Ukrainian airspace restrictions would fleet expansion plans. Their stated
Vintage military aircraft still in service not end before 2028. target markets include emerging local
continue to be called upon for outsized e-commerce flows as well as the East
Russia-based freighter networks have
cargo charter duties around the world, Asia–Western Europe trading bloc.
been almost entirely withdrawn from
predominately between Europe,
the world air transport system. The
North America, and Asia. Typically,
grounding of Russian and Ukrainian
these flights are associated with
freighter fleets was the primary
humanitarian aid efforts, oil and gas
cause of the reduction of the world’s
extraction, aerospace manufacturing,
in-service, large widebody freighter
entertainment, electrical power
fleet by almost 4% in March, 2022,
generation, and other infrastructure
relative to year-end 2021 levels.
development projects.

World Air Cargo Forecast 2022–2041 94

South Asia For the purposes of this forecast, South Asia (sometimes referred to as the
Indian Subcontinent) is defined as Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India,
the Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka.

New Dehli
World Air Cargo Forecast 2022–2041 95
South Asia

Nearly 2.9 Million Tonnes of Europe grew its share of South Asian
Highlights air trade marginally, from 808,000
Cargo per Year metric tonnes in 2019 to 817,000 metric
• E
 urope supplanted East Asia The South Asia air cargo market tonnes in 2021. Despite the modesty
as South Asia’s top air cargo constitutes approximately 5.9% of the of this increase, Europe emerged as
trading partner in 2021, with world’s air cargo traffic in tonnage, and South Asia’s top trade partner, due to
total trade surpassing 817,000 4.8% in tonne-kilometers. It exceeded an 8% decline in South Asia–East Asia
metric tonnes. 2.8 million tonnes in 2021. trade during the same period. Europe’s
• T
 he pandemic severely Over the last decade, the South Asian trade recovery can be attributed to a
impacted cargo movements economy steadily grew. GDP in South 7% increase in the Europe-to-South
in 2020, but total tonnage Asia has increased 5.2% per year Asia traffic flow, as South Asian
recovered in 2021 as capacity since 2011, with a continued outlook importers substituted European
returned. that exceeds the world average. In imports for imports from East Asia
2021, South Asia was home to nearly a when challenges mounted for East
• T
 he Make in India campaign
quarter of the world’s population—over Asian supply chains.
is a primary driver of growth
in both imports (machinery 1.8 billion people.
and chemicals) and exports India dominates the South Asia region Europe Has Emerged as the South Asia’s Largest Trade Partner
(finished products). in terms of freight traffic. In 2021, India
was responsible for more than 60% of
South Asia’s exports and imports, and
the top four airports (by freight traffic)
were located inside India’s borders.
Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Sri Lanka 2021
are the next largest trade countries, 2,869,742
Tonnes
together accounting for more than 35%
of the region’s trade. East Asia: 28% Middle East: 11%
South Asian imports and exports Europe: 28% South Asia: 6%
struggled in 2020 as the COVID-19 Americas: 24% Other: 4%
pandemic disrupted supply chains, Source: S&P Global, Eurostat, India DGCA, CargoIS, Boeing Analysis
closed borders, and hampered
movements of people and cargo.
However, air cargo to key regions
rebounded strongly in 2021, and
recovery has continued into 2022.

World Air Cargo Forecast 2022–2041 96

South Asia

Trade With Europe South Asia–Europe Air Trade Grew 2.3% per Year in the Last Decade
Trade between Europe and South Average Annual Growth, 2011–2021
Asia maintained a steady 2.3% annual
rate of growth over the last decade. 700
Between the two regions, trade has
favored South Asian air exports, 600
which achieved 70% of the total.

Tonnes, Thousands
500
Trade decreased by 13% in 2020, but
rebounded with a 15% increase in 400
2021. More than half of all exports are
textiles, with machinery and agricultural 300
goods contributing significant shares. 200
Nearly 40% of the imports from Europe
consist of machinery and electronics, 100
while chemicals make up another 20%.
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Europe-to-South Asia, 2.3% South Asia-to-Europe, 2.3%

Source: S&P Global, India DGCA, AAI, Eurostat, country government statistics, CargoIS, Boeing analysis

South Asia–East Asia Air Trade Grew 2.7% per Year in the Last Decade
Average Annual Growth, 2011–2021

500

400
Tonnes, Thousands

300

200

100

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
East Asia-to-South Asia, 0.7% South Asia-to-East Asia, 5.5%

Source: S&P Global, India DGCA, AAI, Boeing analysis

World Air Cargo Forecast 2022–2041 97

South Asia

Domestic India Forecast Domestic India Air Trade Will Grow 6.9% per Year
India’s domestic air cargo trade will Average Annual Growth, 2022–2041
continue to see rapid growth of 6.9%
per year over the next two decades. 3,200
Domestic Indian air cargo tonnage has 8.0%

Airborne Metric Tonnes (000)

2,800
grown significantly—by 5.3%—over
2,400 6.9%
the last decade, despite a pandemic-
driven 37% decline from 2019 to 2020. 2,000 5.9%

Historically, trade growth has been 1,600 History

driven by India’s expanding economy, 5.3%
1,200 growth per year
which grew 5.3% per year in real
GDP over the past decade. The 800 Forecast
current baseline growth scenario is 6.9%
400 growth per year
60 basis points higher than our 2020
forecast, and is driven by strong Indian 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041
economic recovery, as well as a base High Base Low
year (2021) that had 19% less tonnage
Source: India DGCA, AAI, Boeing analysis
than 2019 due to the pandemic.

World Air Cargo Forecast 2022–2041 98

South Asia

South Asia–Europe Forecast South Asia-to-Europe Air Trade Will Grow 4.9% per Year
As South Asia’s economy sustains its Average Annual Growth, 2022–2041
rapid expansion, trade between South
Asia and Europe is expected to keep 2,200

Airborne Metric Tonnes (thousands)

6.4%
growing.
1,800
Forecasts for both exports to and
4.9%
imports from Europe point to above- 1,400
trend growth. South Asia’s rapidly
History 3.3%
growing population and middle 1,000 2.3%
class will drive demand for imported growth per year
European products. At the same time, 600
the region’s expanding manufacturing Forecast
200 4.9%
base will increasingly require imported growth per year
goods such as chemicals, machinery,
and electrical equipment. 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041

South Asia remains competitive in High Base Low

terms of production costs, which will Source: S&P Global, India DGCA, AAI, Eurostat, country government statistics, CargoIS, Boeing analysis
drive continued air export growth to
Europe. In addition, the shortage of
reliable supply chains in East Asia, due Europe-to-South Asia Air Trade Will Grow 4.7% per Year
to pandemic containment measures, Average Annual Growth, 2022–2041
has also motivated producers to
diversify the lists of countries in which 800
Airborne Metric Tonnes (thousands)

they manufacture. South Asia should 5.2%

see a boost as this sentiment grows. 4.7%
600 4.2%

History
400 2.3%
growth per year

200 Forecast
4.7%
growth per year

2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041

High Base Low
Source: S&P Global, India DGCA, AAI, Eurostat, country government statistics, CargoIS, Boeing analysis

World Air Cargo Forecast 2022–2041 99

 South Asia

Trade With East Asia in manufacturing, both for export and stimulate imports of historically
and for domestic consumption, has important commodities (such as
South Asia’s air trade with East Asia
contributed to this trend. machinery and chemicals) that support
has grown 2.7% annually since 2011.
manufacturing growth. Imports are
Historically, imports from East Asia
South Asia–East Asia forecast to increase at a robust annual
accounted for approximately 60%
rate of 7.5%.
of the trade between these regions. Forecast
However, over the last decade, that Political tensions between India and
South Asia’s air trade with East Asia is
share has declined and, in 2021, China, intensified by border skirmishes
expected to keep expanding, as South
exports to and imports from East in 2020, may impede air trade between
Asian economies continue to develop.
Asia each amounted to 50% of the the two regions. This friction has
total. Imports from East Asia have Despite weak demand for air cargo prompted India to expand trade ties
been growing at 0.7%, a rate slowed exports to and imports from East with, and secure strategic and financial
by the pandemic due to a 33% drop Asia during the pandemic, strong investments from, other East Asian and
in tonnage. In contrast, South Asian growth is forecasted in both directions. Oceania nations like Australia, Japan,
exports to East Asia have grown at Continued economic and population South Korea, and Taiwan.
5.5% per year over the last decade. growth in South Asia will drive the
South Asia’s renewed focus on growth expansion of e-commerce imports,

South Asia-to-East Asia Air Trade Will Grow 5.3% per Year East Asia-to-South Asia Air Trade Will Grow 7.5% per Year
Average Annual Growth, 2022–2041 Average Annual Growth, 2022–2041

1,400 2,400
Airborne Metric Tonnes (thousands)

Airborne Metric Tonnes (thousands)

6.1%
8.3%
1,200 2,000
5.3%
7.5%
1,000 4.3% 1,600 6.5%
800
History
1,200
5.5% History
600 growth per year 0.7%
800 growth per year
400
Forecast Forecast
200
5.3% 400 7.5%
growth per year growth per year
2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041
High Base Low High Base Low
Source: S&P Global, India DGCA, AAI, Boeing analysis Source: S&P Global, India DGCA, AAI, Boeing analysis

World Air Cargo Forecast 2022–2041 100

Freighter Fleet
Forecast

World Air Cargo Forecast 2022–2041 101

Freighter Fleet Forecast

The Role of Freighters in around production schedules as

Freighters Will Continue to Carry Over 50% of World Air Cargo Traffic
shippers try to use freighters during
Air Cargo shipping time between factories as 100
Before the COVID-19 pandemic, “warehouses in transit.” Few twin-
freighters made up less than 8% of Average air cargo traffic Average air cargo traffic
aisle passenger airline schedules are
the total commercial jet fleet, yet they 3.2% 4.1%
timed to meet the needs of those growth per year growth per year
carried more than 50% of all air cargo industrial shippers.
traffic. As the pandemic continued, at 75
• Freighters offer greater speed to

Percentage of World Freight

the end of 2021, freighters represented
nearly 10% of the total commercial jet market for high-value, time-sensitive

Tonne Kilometers
fleet, and carried approximately 70% of products such as capital equipment,
all air cargo traffic. A number of factors electronics, pharmaceuticals, fashion
underpin their essential role in the goods, and perishable commodities. 50
global supply chain: • The lower holds of passenger
• Of the 21,000 jet transports in airplanes are severely limited for
service at the end of 2021, more transporting hazardous materials and
than 70% were single-aisle and/ project cargo (a group of shipments 25
or regional jet airplanes without moving as one aggregated
lower holds to accommodate freight consignment).
pallets or containers. But freight Nearly 90% of all air cargo revenue
forwarders prefer palletized capacity, is generated by airlines that operate
which is only available on widebody freighters. By augmenting airline cargo 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 41F
passenger or freighter airplanes. operations, freighters help airlines Sources: IATA, ICAO, and Boeing

• Most passenger airplanes with lower- compete more effectively.

hold capacity do not serve key trade Passenger airplane operations that
routes. For such routings, freighters were suspended when the pandemic
are the most efficient form of cargo began in 2020 have yet to recover to
transport. normal levels. This has underscored
• Dedicated freighter services offer the importance of freighters, which
control over timing and routing that have seen an almost 25% rise in
lower-hold capacity cannot match. utilization to compensate for the loss
Air cargo is an industrial tool, and of lower-hold capacity in twin-aisle
demand for cargo capacity surges passenger airplanes.

World Air Cargo Forecast 2022–2041 102

Freighter Fleet Forecast

Freighter Types They are supplied through both

Freighter Fleet Size Categories
conversion and factory production,
This freighter fleet forecast categorizes
with the product mix influenced by Standard Body Medium Widebody Large Widebody
airplanes by capacity measured in
operator requirements as well as <45 tonnes 40–80 tonnes >80 tonnes
tonnes.
feedstock availability.
Standard body freighters offer less Boeing 727 Boeing 767 Boeing 747
Large freighters provide more than
than 45 tonnes of carrying capacity. Boeing 737 Boeing DC-10 Boeing 777
80 tonnes of capacity. Although large
With the same fuselage cross sections
freighters historically came from both Boeing 757 Airbus A300/A310 Boeing MD-11
as single-aisle airplanes, standard-
conversion and factory production
body freighters are supplied to the Boeing MD-80 Airbus A330 Airbus A350
channels, we believe that future
industry almost exclusively through
demand will favor factory production. Boeing DC-9 Ilyushin Il-76TD Antonov An-124
the conversion channel. The uptake
In a segment where utilization rates
of factory-built small freighters has Airbus A320 Series Ilyushin Il-96T
often match those of passenger
been modest and is not expected to
widebodies, carriers value the
increase. Note: Production and conversion (SF) models assumed for each type unless otherwise specified
efficiency and unit cost advantages
Source: OAG/Innovata by Cirium August 2022
Medium widebody freighters have of new, factory-built products.
capacities of 40 to 80 tonnes. In cross
section, these are twin-aisle airplanes.

World Air Cargo Forecast 2022–2041 103

Freighter Fleet Forecast

Replacement and Growth retiring airplanes, and the remainder

Freighter Fleet to Grow by Nearly 1,400 Aircraft by 2041
expanding the fleet to meet projected
Our freighter fleet forecast points to traffic growth. Roughly two thirds of all
3,610 airplanes in service by 2041, an deliveries will be freighter conversions 4,000
3,610
increase of 80% against the in-service of passenger airplanes, about 70% of
2019 fleet of 2,010. which will be standard body aircraft. 3,500

Pre-pandemic, the 2019 world freighter Reflecting the higher traffic growth
outlook, as well as higher replacement 3,000
fleet consisted of 2,010 jet airplanes.
By the end of 2021, the fleet had needs, this year’s forecast is up nearly
7% over last year, with increases 2,500 2,240
grown to 2,250 freighters. At the same
across all segments. 2,010 515
time, freighter utilization operated at
2,000
approximately 125% of normal levels. In the standard body segment, the fleet
The return of parked airplanes to the is projected to grow by 90% over 2021
fleet, combined with higher-than- 1,500
1,300 Deliveries
levels, as viable feedstock becomes 2,795 555
normal operations levels, has added more available and e-commerce
much-needed capacity, and will fulfill 1,000
network growth boosts demand.
replacement demands throughout the The segment will continue to see
forecast period. 500 425
conversions to meet growth and
Over the next 20 years, the freighter replacement demand, with a projected
2019 2021 2041
fleet will grow from pre-pandemic levels 1,300 conversions. On the replacement
by 80%, which represents 3% average side, more efficient airplanes will New Large Widebody New Medium Widebody
annual fleet growth. We forecast increase sustainability—and further Widebody Conversion Standard Body Conversion
approximately 2,800 production- boost capacity, as today’s conversions Source: Boeing Market Analysis CMO 2022 – Forecast period 2022–2041
plus conversion deliveries, with are larger than many of the airplanes
approximately half of them replacing being replaced.

World Air Cargo Forecast 2022–2041 104

 Freighter Fleet Forecast

Freighter Deliveries to Boost Fleet Efficiency,

In the widebody segment, the fleet is Cargo Specialists and
forecast to grow by nearly 75%. Both
Support Demand Growth
conversions and production deliveries
General-Market Operators
are higher than last year. Expanding Cargo specialists operate only
4,000
1,370 3,610 express networks will drive growth in freighters. They may, or may not,
the medium segment. And, in the large contract with passenger airlines
widebody freighter category, just over for the use of lower-hold capacity.
half of the 660 airplanes flying at the Such players are strong competitors
3,000 in market niches with specialized
end of 2021 are nearing retirement age.
As a result, projected new widebody requirements such as oversized or
2,240 1,425 49% demand of 515 units will account for cold-chain cargo.
Fleet (units)

both replacements and future growth. General-market operators are often

2,000 New demand for widebodies will combination carriers, flying both
remain robust, as their advantages in passengers and cargo. They use
unit cost, utilization, and range make lower holds on passenger flights to
them vital to operators for long-haul, feed freighter flights. Historically, the
1,000 815 51% general air cargo service. passenger lower-hold cargo load factor
has been about half the cargo load
factor of dedicated freighter operations.
The fact that passenger airlines that
2021 Retained Replacement Growth 2041 operate freighters achieve much better
Fleet Fleet Fleet lower-hold load factors than those
Source: Boeing Market Analysis CMO 2022 – Forecast period 2022–2041 that carry cargo, but do not operate
freighters, demonstrates the critical
role freighters play in creating effective
cargo networks.

World Air Cargo Forecast 2022–2041 105

 Freighter Fleet Forecast

Both operator types tend to use their Cargo specialists and general-market
Freighter Cargo Load Factors Double That of Passenger Lower Holds
freighters in similar ways. They fly operators have high utilization rates
relatively short stages, loading and and are successful at building loads 2021 Cargo Load Factors by Segment
offloading cargo at points along a that fully utilize an aircraft’s structural

% of Available Capacity Filled

general route in a pattern known as and volumetric capabilities. Because
“load building.” Sixth-freedom cargo these airlines emphasize unit costs
hubs are another feature of these over acquisition costs, they prefer
networks, given that the bilateral large, capable, factory-built freighters.
agreements covering cargo carriage
tend to be more liberal than those
69%
covering passenger travel.
40%
28%

Freighter Passenger Airplane Passenger Airplane

Lower Hold (Major Lower Hold (All
Widebody Carriers) Passenger Carriers)
Sources: IATA, ICAO, Boeing

Freighter Fleet and Utilization Jump to Fill Void Left by Reduced Passenger Services

16,000 Passenger Single-aisle 5,000 Passenger Twin-aisle (incl ‘preighters’) 2,000 Freighters

4,000
12,000 1,500

3,000
Active Fleet

8,000 1,000

2,000

4,000 500
1,000
Overall Fleet Utilization Overall Fleet Utilization Overall Fleet Utilization
83% 70% 126%

3/20 7/20 11/20 3/21 7/21 11/21 3/22 7/22 3/20 7/20 11/20 3/21 7/21 11/21 3/22 7/22 3/20 7/20 11/20 3/21 7/21 11/21 3/22 7/22

Sources: FlightRadar24 for jets only, BR&T Europe, Boeing, Data through Week 38 (9/11–9/17), normalized with 2019 schedule and FR24 operations

World Air Cargo Forecast 2022–2041 106

Freighter Fleet Forecast

Express Carriers a mix of small to large freighters, and

source airplanes opportunistically
Express carriers have a distinct
from conversion suppliers or airframe
business model. They move large
manufacturers. Because of their unique
numbers of smaller shipments, and
focus on the balance of capability,
use other modes of transport to reach
acquisition cost, and unit cost, express
the final recipients. For these carriers,
carriers use medium freighters to a
the average cargo density (weight
greater extent than other cargo airlines.
per unit volume) is less than that of
Express carriers also acquire large
general freight operators. The time-
numbers of standard body freighters
definite services they provide offer
through the conversion channel, to
higher yields. Utilization rates (in flight
support lower-volume nodes in their
hours per day) can be very low without
networks.
impacting profitability. Networks tend to
be hub-and-spoke, with flights arriving
at hubs by night and departing quickly
to facilitate morning deliveries. Much of Large Freighters Serve General Carriers; Medium Widebodies Handle Express
this flying is domestic, or within defined
trading blocs, rather than on long-haul Freighter Fleet by 2041
international routes. 3,610 Freighter Aircraft

Because payload density and airplane

utilization are lower than those of 15% 11%
20% 18%
general freight operators, express
operators tend to balance unit cost
against acquisition cost and the need 44%
950 1,240 1,420
to cover network routes with daily or 22% Large Medium Widebody Standard Body
better frequencies. These airlines fly
63% 45%
All Cargo & Combination
Express Carriers
62%
Other

World Air Cargo Forecast 2022–2041 107

Freighter Fleet Forecast

Emerging Markets consideration is feedstock: Popular

Asia Pacific Region to Lead Freighter Deliveries
passenger airplanes become readily
and Startups available for conversion as passenger New and Converted Airplanes
Emerging-market cargo airlines and airlines release them, and there are 2022–2041
startups share several attributes: simply more of them in the fleet. But
feedstock availability is not the only 1,200 Percent of World Total
• They often serve markets with small 38%
cargo volumes. determinant. Other factors, such
as required structural modifications
• Their networks are still in the early 1,000 32%
or technical issues, may limit an
stages of development, with limited airplane type’s passenger-to-freighter
opportunities for load building and conversion viability. 800
sixth-freedom operations.
• They are more sensitive to acquisition Regional Outlook
costs than operating costs. 600
Regionally, the Asia-Pacific market
forecast holds the highest traffic 16%
Because of their small cargo volumes
and sensitivity to acquisition cost, growth, as carriers continue to build 400
startups and emerging market out their express networks and supply 9%
operators gravitate toward standard chain support needs. For the region
body freighters, which cost much as a whole, the total freighter fleet is 200 5%
less to purchase than other types of forecast to become roughly the same
freighters. Similarly, these airlines favor size as the North American fleet by the
converted airplanes, given the limited end of the forecast period. This will Asia Pacific North Europe Middle East Latin
America & Africa America
options and higher costs of purpose- represent growth of over three times
built freighters. the pre-pandemic fleet. In contrast, New Large Widebody,
the more mature North American fleet Widebody Conversions,
While there is a niche for the is projected to grow by one third, but New Medium Widebody
conversion of airplane types that have it will need roughly as many deliveries Standard Body Conversions
not proved popular in passenger as Asia-Pacific to efficiently and
Source: Boeing Market Analysis CMO 2022 – Forecast period 2022–2041
operations, more conversions are sustainably replace the existing fleet.
based on widely used types. One

World Air Cargo Forecast 2022–2041 108

Forecast
Methodology

World Air Cargo Forecast 2022–2041 109

Forecast Methodology

Every two years, Boeing publishes restrictions on airport night operations, Boeing-developed Airline Cargo
the World Air Cargo Forecast, a evolving supply chains, shifting Traffic Database, up-to-date business
comprehensive overview of the air consumer behaviors, and changes in intelligence, and the strategic directions
cargo industry. This year’s forecast trade patterns all could influence an of industry players.
summarizes the world’s air trade airline’s strategic plan. As a result, our
markets, identifies major trends by market and flow forecasts incorporate Sourcing
region, and projects the performance anticipated increases in capacity, route
Data represented as historical in this
and development of both global restructuring, and market programs.
document were compiled from many
markets and the world’s freighter fleet.
sources, including (but not limited to)
Our process considers key global Trend Analysis the Airports Authority of India, Airports
economic indicators that impact
Trend analysis enables us to evaluate Council International, the Association
air cargo, consults a wide range of
changes in economic and market of Asia Pacific Airlines, the Boeing
industry data sources, and employs a
factors that can be extrapolated into Foreign Trade Database, Cargo
variety of analytical methods. Among
the future. This approach is useful in Facts Consulting, Cirium Diio Mi, the
our resources are econometric
evaluating marketplace changes that Civil Aviation Administration (China),
modeling, judgmental evaluation trend
can be attributed to the combined Clarkson Research Services Ltd., the
analysis techniques, and the Boeing
effects of a number of factors. By Directorate General of Civil Aviation
Freighter Fleet Forecast.
surveying large datasets, we achieve (India), Drewry Maritime Research,
meaningful sample sizes and broad- Eurostat, the Federal Agency for Air
Econometric Modeling based results. Transport (Russia), the International Air
Econometric modeling is most Transport Association, the International
useful for medium- and long-range Freighter Fleet Forecast Civil Aviation Organization, Oxford
forecasts in regional markets. It helps Economics, S&P Global, the Transport
Rather than simply extending current
us determine the importance of Clearing House (Russia), the U.N.
trends, our Freighter Fleet Forecast
underlying economic factors such as Council on Trade and Development,
allows for changes in industrial
GDP, industrial production, and world the U.S. Department of Commerce,
structure. It begins with air cargo
trade, and links our forecast to future and the U.S. Department of
traffic data, sorted by main-deck and
expectations of those factors. Transportation.
lower-hold services, domiciles and
airline groups, and equipment types. The World Air Cargo Forecast is
Judgmental Evaluation We check the results for balance in integrated with Boeing’s Commercial
Judgmental evaluation often terms of traffic flow, operator domicile, Market Outlook. Find out more at
accounts for expected changes in equipment type, airline market share, Boeing – CMO.
non-econometric growth factors. manufacturer capacity, and conversion
Air-service agreements, trade quotas, capacity. Our inputs include the

World Air Cargo Forecast 2022–2041 110

Glossary

ACMI: A package lease that includes Express shipment: Guaranteed or Payload: The portion of an aircraft Utilization: The number of hours
an airframe, crew, maintenance, time-definite cargo service. In addition load that provides revenue. effectively flown by an airplane in a
and insurance, but excludes fuel. See to airport-to-airport transport, express given unit of time.
RTK: Revenue tonne-kilometer. A
Wet lease. shippers also offer services such as
metric of performance; one tonne of Wet lease: An arrangement that
door-to-door pickup and delivery.
Air freight: Goods, other than mail, revenue freight carried one kilometer. covers all facets of operating an
See Integrator.
shipped by air. Usually interchangeable with freight airplane on a carrier’s behalf, including
Feedstock: Retired passenger aircraft tonne-kilometer, but may include airframe, crew, and most (if not all)
ATK: Available tonne-kilometer. A
available for conversion to freighters. passenger weight for total revenue. airplane-related expenses. See ACMI.
metric of freight capacity; the weight
See FTK.
that can be carried, multiplied by the Freight forwarder: A business that Yield: A metric of airline charges,
distance flown. manages the shipment of goods from Scheduled operations: Aircraft expressed in units of aggregated
originators to end markets, consumers, flights operated on predetermined weight and distance (e.g., revenue
Cargo: For the purposes of this
or distribution locations. schedules. per tonne-kilometer). Inclusion of
document, freight, express, or airmail.
surcharges (such as security or fuel)
FTK: Freight tonne-kilometer. A metric Sea-air market: A mode of
Chartered operations: The business varies by the carrier reporting.
of freight traffic; one tonne of cargo transportation that balances time and
of reserving aircraft for private transport
carried one kilometer. cost by leveraging the lower cost of
of goods or passengers.
maritime shipping (between seaports)
Integrator: A full-service cargo
Combination carrier: A scheduled and the speed of air shipping (over
company that offers pickup, airport-to-
and chartered commercial operator landmasses).
airport transport, delivery, and ancillary
that carries both passengers and
support services. Often referred to as Sixth freedom of the air: The right
cargo on revenue flights. Most utilize
an express shipment provider. See to transport, via a carrier’s home state,
passenger airplanes with lower-hold
Express shipment. passengers or cargo between two
cargo, but many operate freighters as
other states.
well as passenger aircraft. Load factor: A metric of available
seating or cargo capacity that is filled Truck flight: Cargo covered by an air
Daily shipment count: A metric of
by passengers or freight; measured in waybill but carried on the ground by
revenue cargo traffic volume. Less
revenue tonne- kilometers divided by dedicated surface vehicles. Carriage
commonly used than measurements
available tonne-kilometers. between origin and destination may be
such as weight (e.g., tonnes) or weight
exclusively by surface or may feed into
combined with distance (e.g., revenue Outsize cargo: Freight too large for
airport-to-airport or airport-to surface
tonne-kilometers), except by integrators standard pallets. Often carried by
transportation. Often considered a
who specialize in smaller parcels. nose-door equipped 747s or purpose-
feature of road feeder service.
built Russian freighters.

World Air Cargo Forecast 2022–2041 111

Appendix

World Airline by Region of Domicile

RTKs in millions

Africa 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021*
Scheduled freight 2,603 2,508 2,910 2,970 3,206 3,211 3,279 4,105 4,079 4,474 3,926 5,034
Charter freight 339 346 180 98 125 142 139 179 194 210 743 841
Mail 56 57 62 79 77 75 111 135 116 117 81 108
Total** 2,998 2,911 3,152 3,148 3,407 3,427 3,529 4,419 4,390 4,801 4,751 5,983

Asia Pacific 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021*
Scheduled freight 78,142 75,363 70,640 70,573 75,878 77,995 79,577 86,731 88,907 83,957 67,687 79,746
Charter freight 843 627 1,094 778 571 831 850 337 248 986 4,914 6,535
Mail 1,887 2,014 2,015 2,236 2,527 2,640 2,710 2,974 2,841 2,609 1,527 1,463
Total** 80,872 78,003 73,749 73,587 78,976 81,466 83,136 90,042 91,997 87,552 74,128 87,744

Europe 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021*
Scheduled freight 37,792 39,717 41,263 41,638 42,495 41,314 43,379 48,127 49,935 50,439 42,132 51,423
Charter freight 4,101 4,077 1,361 1,373 1,268 1,308 1,572 2,203 3,700 2,578 3,070 3,758
Mail 946 1,016 1,054 1,146 1,187 1,266 1,225 1,289 1,233 1,236 759 612
Total** 42,838 44,810 43,678 44,157 44,950 43,888 46,176 51,619 54,868 54,253 45,961 55,793

Latin America 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021*
Scheduled freight 4,393 4,481 4,742 5,877 5,974 5,934 5,992 6,306 6,734 6,797 6,309 6,796
Charter freight 230 134 80 118 77 49 73 134 408 506 118 110
Mail 55 93 132 130 147 123 70 67 228 244 154 227
Total** 4,677 4,708 4,954 6,125 6,198 6,106 6,134 6,507 7,371 7,547 6,581 7,133

Middle East 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021*
Scheduled freight 16,226 17,656 20,165 22,683 24,986 28,133 30,324 33,081 34,000 32,173 29,232 35,231
Charter freight 146 148 148 217 150 174 207 90 84 303 293 228
Mail 266 161 132 158 224 331 440 557 725 700 383 359
Total** 16,638 17,966 20,445 23,058 25,361 28,637 30,970 33,728 34,808 33,177 29,908 35,818

North America 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021*
Scheduled freight 41,300 41,443 40,977 40,679 42,897 43,475 44,672 48,167 49,773 49,729 44,130 49,973
Charter freight 7,036 7,722 8,803 8,518 7,894 8,108 8,582 10,001 12,232 12,704 21,205 25,379
Mail 1,911 1,907 1,827 1,855 1,686 1,757 1,645 1,879 1,871 1,894 1,578 1,656
Total** 50,248 51,072 51,608 51,053 52,478 53,339 54,899 60,047 63,876 64,327 66,913 77,007

*Preliminary; complete for airline reports received as of October 2022.

**RTK totals may not sum equally because of numerical rounding.

World Air Cargo Forecast 2022–2041 112

Appendix

World Airline by Region of Domicile

RTKs in millions

Russia and
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021*
Central Asia
Scheduled freight 4,144 4,687 5,148 5,281 5,713 6,540 8,106 9,919 9,718 9,256 8,649 10,178
Charter freight 1,603 1,396 1,014 780 769 776 758 1,008 1,252 993 2,833 4,081
Mail 86 98 113 119 131 131 143 203 208 240 25 28
Total** 5,833 6,181 6,275 6,181 6,613 7,447 9,007 11,131 11,178 10,490 11,507 14,287

South Asia 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021*
Scheduled freight 2,565 2,563 2,389 2,516 2,543 2,466 2,385 3,001 3,310 2,539 1,224 1,437
Charter freight 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 107 207
Mail 86 61 55 52 63 68 66 87 82 71 28 25
Total** 2,650 2,624 2,444 2,568 2,606 2,534 2,451 3,088 3,392 2,610 1,359 1,669

World 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021*
Scheduled freight 187,166 188,418 188,234 192,218 203,691 209,067 217,713 239,437 246,457 239,363 203,289 239,818
Charter freight 14,298 14,450 12,681 11,883 10,854 11,387 12,180 13,952 18,118 18,281 33,282 41,139
Mail 5,292 5,408 5,390 5,776 6,043 6,389 6,410 7,191 7,305 7,111 4,536 4,477
Total** 206,756 208,276 206,306 209,877 220,589 226,844 236,303 260,580 271,880 264,755 241,107 285,434

*Preliminary; complete for airline reports received as of October 2022.

**RTK totals may not sum equally because of numerical rounding.

World Air Cargo Forecast 2022–2041 113

 For more information, visit our website
boeing.com/wacf

The statements contained herein are based on good faith assumptions and provided for
general information purposes only. These statements do not constitute an offer, promise,
warranty or guarantee of performance. Actual results may vary depending on certain
events or conditions. This document should not be used or relied upon for any purpose
other than that intended by Boeing.

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World Air Cargo Forecast 2022–2041 114