Unit 3 Project Management
Unit 3 Project Management
Project Management
• Project management: meaning, scope & importance
• Role of project manager
• Project life-cycle
• Project appraisal: Preparation of a real time project
feasibility report containing Technical appraisal
• Environmental appraisal
• Market appraisal (including market survey for forecasting
future demand and sales)
• Managerial appraisal.
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Management
• Management means managing an activity.
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Management – Contd…
Management
Traditional Modern
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Project Task
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• It is temporary sequence of unique, complex and
connected activities having one goal or purpose which
must be completed by specific time, within budget and
according to specification.
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Definition of Project
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Start date / End date Product/Service
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Features of Project
• Every project is unique.
• A project has a beginning and an end.
• A project has a well defined collection of jobs.
• Jobs are interrelated but are independent.
• Jobs consume time and resources.
• A project has a limited resources.
• A project follows a planned, organized method to meet
its objectives with specific goals of quality and
performance.
• A project has a manager responsible for its outcomes.
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• If you wish to meet the goal of the project, you
need proper project management to do so.
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Project Management Philosophy
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Define S.M.A.R.T. Project Objectives
• S - Specific
• M - Measurable
• A - Assignable
• R - Realistic
• T - Time related
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Project Manager
“A project manager is like a doctor who leads the
trauma team and decides the course of action for a
patient - both at the same time. Without the right kind
of authority to efficiently handle all the project
management issues, development teams can easily get
into trouble.”
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Project Manager – Contd…
• Good project managers are people with an excellent
entrepreneurial mindset.
• This allows them to think about a project beyond the
basic skill set needed to manage it, and it is the project
manager’s job to direct teams and team members to
the finish line.
• At the end of the day, the project’s success or failure
rests solely on the project manager’s shoulders, and he
or she is the one responsible for the end result.
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Project Manager – Contd…
• Project Managers play the lead role in planning,
executing, monitoring, controlling and closing projects.
• They are expected to deliver a project on time, within the
budget, and brief while keeping everyone in the know
and happy.
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Roles and Responsibilities of
Project Manager
1) Activity and resource planning
2) Organizing and motivating a project team
3) Controlling time management
4) Cost estimating and developing the budget
5) Ensuring customer satisfaction
6) Analyzing and managing project risk
7) Monitoring progress
8) Managing reports and necessary documentation
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• Good project management is about more than
just tasks and timings and budgets.
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• Companies are starting to realize that good project
management is important for stronger results and
happier employees.
• These aren’t just coincidences or side effects —
they’re functions of project management done right.
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Importance of Project Management
• In other words, we have a goal which we want to
achieve, and we decide about ways of carrying
out the activity so as to achieve that goal.
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Importance of Project Management –
Contd…
1) Consistent communication
2) Effective resource allocation
3) Higher productivity
4) Improved customer satisfaction
5) More flexibility
6) Higher risk tolerance
7) Improved morale
8) Better planning
9) Quality control
10) Learning by retrospection
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Project Life Cycle
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Initiating
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Planning
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Executing
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Controlling
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Closing
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Process of Project Planning
Identification Formulation
Solution Appraisal
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1) Project Identification
1. Analysis and performance of existing industries:
• Provides a good indicator about the health of a particular
industry.
• An analysis of the profitability of different industries will
provide adequate information about the financial health of
different industrial sectors.
• The stage of business cycle in which the different industries
stand at a particular time is very crucial.
• A particular industry sector might be performing well, but it
might have already crossed its saturation stage and might
have already fallen into the decline stage of its business cycle.
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1) Project Identification – Contd…
2. Availability of raw materials:
• Easy availability of good quality raw materials at cheaper
prices gives an opportunity for starting up new projects
based on availability of raw materials.
3. Import/export ratios:
• Higher proportion of import of a particular product
indicates an increasing trend in its import and such a
product can be substituted by producing locally.
• Increasing proportion of export of a particular product
indicates an increasing trend in its export and a high
potential for the substitute product.
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1) Project Identification – Contd…
4. Availability of skilled labor:
• Based on the locally available skilled labor force.
• Skilled manpower can be better recognized by suitable
industries.
5. Price trend:
• Act as an indicator about the demand-supply relationship.
• In case, the general price level is rising during the past few
years and if the rise in price level of a particular product is
steeper than the rise in general price level, it may indicate a
demand-supply gap.
• The detailed study of demand-supply gap may be very useful
for choosing a new project.
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1) Project Identification – Contd…
6. Research and development activities:
• Sometimes it offers new avenues for commercial
exploitation of new products or processes.
• However, failure to correctly simulate conditions may
lead to failure when the product is produced in a large
scale.
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1) Project Identification – Contd…
7. Plan outlay and Government guidance:
• Government plays an important role in the economy of a
country.
• Government’s plan of future outlays in various sectors
acts as useful indicators towards possible investment
opportunities.
• They focus towards the potential demand for goods and
services by the different sectors of the economy.
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2) Project Formulation
• The project formulation stage involves further analysis of the
project to ensure that it has the potential and the money that
will be spent would yield good returns.
1. Pre-feasibility study: It has the following main objectives:
• To determine whether the project offers a fruitful investment
opportunity.
• To determine whether there are any aspects of the project,
which are critical requiring detailed investigation.
• If the pre-feasibility indicates certain grey areas of project
that need a detailed study, such studies are taken up before
taking up feasibility study. Such studies are known as
Support studies or functional studies.
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2) Project Formulation – Contd…
3. Feasibility study: In this study, the technical, economic,
commercial and financial justification of the chosen
project is ascertained in concrete terms before taking
the final decision to take up the project.
a) Technical feasibility
• For projects involving manufacturing activities, the
technology proposed to be adapted needs careful
consideration.
b) Economic viability
• It ascertains that the investment made on the project
will give a satisfactory return to the economy or not.
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2) Project Formulation – Contd…
c) Commercial viability
• Before embarking upon any product or service, the
scope for successfully marketing the product/ service
shall be carefully and accurately assessed.
• If the product/service proposed is new to the industry:
• A systematic market survey is a prerequisite for
assessing the portable estimates of the likely sales and
the likely sales estimated should be well above the
proposed plant capacity in order to overcome any
pitfalls.
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2) Project Formulation – Contd…
d) Financial feasibility
• It examines the viability of a project in respect to raising
finance to meet the investment required for the project.
e) Techno-economic analysis
• Techno-economic analysis is the identification of the
project demand potential and selection of the optimal
technology suitable for achieving the project objectives.
This analysis can be done through estimation of demand
or potential and selection of an appropriate technology.
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2) Project Formulation – Contd…
f. Project design:
• A Project usually comprises certain sequential activities
which are interrelated with each other. Such activities
can be shown in the form of a diagram, which is called
network diagram.
• Project design is concerned with the development of a
detailed work plan of the project comprising the time
estimates.
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2) Project Formulation – Contd…
g. Network Analysis
• When a network is designed, its analysis is carried out to
identify the optimal course of action so as to complete
the project with minimum time, cost and available
resources.
• Some of the network analysis techniques are PERT
(Programme Evaluation Review Techniques) and CPM
(Critical Path Method).
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2) Project Formulation – Contd…
h) Social cost benefit analysis
• In social cost benefit analysis, the investment projects are
evaluated from the point of view of the society as a whole.
The cost benefit analysis aims at analyzing the real
contribution of an investment project towards the welfare of
the society.
i) Preparation of project report
• After evaluating the project from various dimensions, the
entrepreneur prepares a detailed project report. The report
acts as a blueprint which helps the entrepreneur in the
implementation stage. The report is also necessary
document to gain financial assistance from various agencies.
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Project Appraisal
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• The word appraisal is defined as the act of determining a
value or quality of something or the report of that
value.
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Project Appraisal
• Project appraisal is the process of analyzing the
technical feasibility and economic viability of a project
proposal their costs.
• Project appraisal enables to take a decision on with long
term effects.
• It is an attempt to justify the project through analysis,
which is a way to determine project feasibility and cost-
effectiveness.
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Project Appraisal - Contd…
• Project Appraisal is a consistent process of reviewing a
given project and evaluating its content to approve or
reject this project, through analyzing the problem or need
to be addressed by the project, generating solution
options (alternatives) for solving the problem, selecting
the most feasible option, conducting a feasibility analysis
of that option, creating the solution statement and
identifying all people and organizations concerned with
or affected by the project and its expected outcomes.
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Project Appraisal – Contd…
• No matter whether you are going to purchase a new car,
constructing a building, improving a business process,
updating a network system, conducting a marketing
campaign, building a garage, or any other initiative, you
should make a preliminary assessment and appraisal of
your undertaking in order to be sure that that you will
do a required and necessary change to your
environment.
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Project Appraisal – Contd…
• Project appraisal: Preparation of a real time project
feasibility report containing :-
• Technical appraisal
• Financial appraisal
• Economic appraisal
• Managerial appraisal
• Market appraisal
• Environmental appraisal
• Legal appraisal
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Technical Appraisal
• Technical feasibility analysis is the systematic gathering
and analysis of the data pertaining to the technical
inputs required and formation of conclusion there from.
• It helps organizations determine whether the technical
resources meet capacity and whether the technical
team is capable of converting the ideas into working
systems.
• Technical feasibility also involves the evaluation of the
hardware, software, and other technical requirements of
the proposed system.
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Technical Appraisal – Contd…
• It determines whether the technical parameters are
soundly conceived, realistic and technically feasible.
• This feasibility analysis is very important since its
significance lies in planning the exercises, documentation
process, and risk minimization process and to get
approval.
• The availability of the raw materials, equipment,
hard/software, power, sanitary and sewerage services,
transportation facility, skilled man power, engineering
facilities, maintenance, local people etc., depending on
the type of project are coming under technical analysis.
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Technical Appraisal – Contd…
• The technical feasibility can be evaluated by answering
the following questions:
• Is the technology proposed to be adapted the best
available and the latest? What are the chances that the
proposed technology will become obsolete in the near
future?
• Is the technology proposed to be adapted a proven
technology?
• Is the technology proposed to be adapted available
indigenously?
• In case of imported technology, is the technology
available easily?
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Financial Appraisal
• To determine whether the financial costs and returns are
properly estimated and whether the project is financially
viable.
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Financial Appraisal – Contd…
• It examines the viability of a project in respect to raising
finance to meet the investment required for the project.
• It consists of calculations of cost of debt, cost of
procuring the capital, cost of servicing the debt and
equity and anticipating and evaluating expected profits
involved.
• If in feasibility analysis, the project is found feasible, the
same is put to further analysis.
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Economic Appraisal
• How far the project contributes to the development of
the sector, industrial development, social development,
maximizing the growth of employment, etc. are kept in
view while evaluating the economic feasibility of the
project.
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Managerial Appraisal
• It determines whether the implementing agencies as
identified in the report are capable for effective
implementation, monitoring, and evaluation of the
scheme.
• Managerial competence, integrity, knowledge of the
project, the promoters should have the knowledge and
ability to plan, implement and operate the entire project
effectively.
• The past record of the promoters is to be appraised to
clarify their ability in handling the projects.
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Legal Appraisal
• To determine whether the project satisfies the legal
issues related to land acquisition, title deed,
environmental clearance etc.
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Environmental Appraisal
• It is conducted to see any detrimental environmental
impacts and how to minimize the impacts.
Environmental appraisal concerns with the impact of
environment on the project.
• The factors include the water, air, land, sound,
geographical location etc.
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Market Appraisal
• The appraisal involves the assessment of the current
demand/market scenario, which enables the project to
get adequate demand.
• The demand and scope of the project among the
beneficiaries, customer friendly process and preferences,
future demand of the supply, effectiveness of the selling
arrangement, latest information availability on all areas,
government control measures, etc.
• Estimation, distribution and advertisement scenario also
to be here considered into.
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Market Analysis
• Market analysis involves the detailed study of various
market segments in terms of customer preferences,
competitors, the untapped demand, the prevalent trade
practices, etc.
• It is essential to analyze the project from the market and
demand perspectives.
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Market Analysis – Contd…
• Objectives of Market Analysis are as follows:
• To identify the depth and breadth of demand.
• To determine the flow of stock to be maintained in the
market.
• To determine the number, size and types of competitors in
the market.
• To identify the customers status, buying capacity,
preferences, etc.
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Market Appraisal – Contd…
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Demand Analysis
• Demand Analysis is a study that uses the data collected
from primary and secondary sources and determines if
the proposed product or service will be successful in the
market or not.
• These studies can also be used to help find ways to
increase the sales performance of the good or service in
the future.
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Demand And Market Analysis
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Methods of Demand Analysis
(Demand forecasting)
• Generally, there are two approaches to demand
forecasting.
1) The first approach involves forecasting demand by
collecting information regarding the buying behaviour of
consumers from experts or through conducting surveys.
2) On the other hand, the second method is to forecast
demand by using the past data through statistical
techniques.
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Methods of Demand Analysis – Contd…
(Demand forecasting)
• Thus, we can say that the techniques of demand
forecasting are divided into survey methods and
statistical methods.
• The survey method is generally for short-term
forecasting, whereas statistical methods are used to
forecast demand in the long run.
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Methods of
Demand
Forecasting
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Methods of
Demand Forecasting
Qualitative
Methods
Methods of
Demand
Forecasting
Quantitative
Methods
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Qualitative Methods
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Quantitative Methods
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Qualitative Methods
Experts Opinion (or Delphi) Method
• Developed by Rand Corporation of the U.S.A in 1940s by
Olaf Helmer, Dalkey and Gordon.
• This method seeks the views of experts on the likely level
of demand in future.
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Experts Opinion (or Delphi) Method – Contd…
• Experts are informed persons who know the product very
well. They have been dealing with the product for a long
time.
• Thus, they have a rich experience of the behavior of
demand. This opinion of experts is used for developing
future expectations.
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Delphi Method – Contd…
Advantages
1. It is simple to conduct
2. Can be used where quantitative data is not possible.
3. The forecast is reliable as it is based on the opinion of
people who know the product very well.
4. It is inexpensive.
5. It takes little time.
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Delphi Method – Contd…
Disadvantages
1. The results are based on opinion of one or more
persons and not on scientific analysis. Hence this
method lacks reliability.
2. The experts may be biased.
3. The method is subjective and the forecast could be
unfavorably influenced by persons.
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Consumers Complete Enumeration
Survey Method
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Consumers Complete Enumeration
Survey Method – Contd…
Advantages
1. Accurate as it surveys all the consumers of a
product.
2. It is simple to use.
3. It is not affected by personal biasness.
4. It is based on collected data.
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Consumers Complete Enumeration
Survey Method
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Consumers Sample Survey
• This is a small form of the complete enumeration
method.
• Here instead of surveying all the consumers of a
commodity, only a few consumers are selected.
• The sample is considered to be a true representation of
the entire population.
• The demand of the sample so ascertained is then
magnified to generate the total demand of all the
consumers for that commodity in the forecast period.
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Consumers Sample Survey – Contd…
Advantages
1. An important tool especially for short-tern projections.
2. It is simple and does not cost much.
3. Since only a few consumers are to be approached, the method
works quickly.
4. The risk of erroneous data is reduced.
Disadvantages
1. The conclusions are based on the view of only a few consumers
and all of them.
2. The sample may not be a true representation of the entire
population.
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Sales Force Opinion Survey
• The employees of the company who are a part of the
sales and marketing terms are asked to predict future
levels of demand in their respective territories for a
given period.
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Sales Force Opinion Survey – Contd…
• This method is based on the assumption that the sales
force, which has been selling the product to
wholesalers/retailers/consumers over a period of time is
considered to know the product and the demand
pattern very well.
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Sales Force Opinion Survey – Contd…
Advantages
1. It is one of the simplest of the forecasting methods.
2. It is less costly.
3. Collecting data from its own employees is easier for a firm
than to do it from external parties.
4. It is based on first hand knowledge of the salesman.
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Sales Force Opinion Survey – Contd…
Disadvantages
1. Consumers tastes and preferences keep changing with time.
What held good in the past may not necessarily continue to do
so in the future as well. Thus, the opinion of the sales force may
be invalid.
2. Sales person may be unaware of the broader economic changes
likely to have an impact on the future demand.
3. The sales person are more concerned with making sales rather
than forecasting sales, which to them may appear like needless
paper work.
4. The sales force may give biased views as the projected demand
affects their future job prospects.
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Quantitative Methods
Quantitative Methods
(1) Trend Projection Method
(a) Graphical Method
(b) Least Square Method
(2) Barometric Techniques
(3) Economic Techniques
(a) Regression Method
(b) Simultaneous Equations Method
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(1) Trend Projection Method
• This technique is based on the assumption that
whatever has been the pattern of demand in the past,
will continue to hold good in future also.
• Thus, the historical data can be used to predict the
demand for a commodity in the future.
• In the trend projection method, historical data is
collected and fitted into some kind of trend, i.e,
repetitive behavior pattern.
• This trend is then extrapolated into the future to get the
demand for the forecast period.
• These data are known as time series.
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Trend
Projection
Method
Least Square
Graphical
or Algebraic
Method
Method
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(A) Graphical Method
• In the graphical method, the past data will be plotted on
a graph and the identified trend/behavior will be
extended further in the same pattern to ascertain the
demand in the forecast period.
• Past values of the variable on vertical axis and time on
horizontal axis and line is plotted.
• Movement of the series is assessed and future values of
the variable are forecasted.
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(A) Graphical Method – Contd…
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(B) Least Square Method
• The algebraic method is also known as least square method.
• The demand and time data are fitted into a mathematical
equation. It is based on the assumption that the past rate of
change of the variable under study will continue in the future.
• It is a mathematical procedure for fitting a line to a set of
observed data points in such a manner that the sum of the
squared differences between the calculated and observed value is
minimized.
• This technique is used to find a trend line which best fit the
available data.
• This trend is then used to project dependent variable in the
future.
• This method is very popular because it is simple and inexpensive.
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(B) Least Square Method – Contd…
◼ based on the minimization of squared deviations between the
best fitting line and the original observations given.
◼ Estimates coefficients of a linear function.
Y = a + bX
where a = intercept
and b = slope
Y = a + bX
ΣY = na + bΣX -------- (1)
ΣXY = aΣX + bΣX2 --------(2)
◼ Once the coefficients of the trend equation are estimated, we
can easily project the trend for future periods.
Example
• Determine sales for the year 2001 by fitting straight
line trend in the following data.
Sales 45 52 48 55 60
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(B) Least Square Method – Contd…
• YEAR (t) SALES (Y) X (t-1998) X2 XY
• 1996 45 -2 4 -90
• 1997 52 -1 1 -52
• 1998 48 0 0 0
• 1999 55 1 1 55
• 2000 60 2 4 120
• N=5 ΣY=260 ΣX=0 ΣX2=10 ΣXY=33
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(B) Least Square Method – Contd…
• Substituting the above values in the two normal
equations we get the following:-
• 260=5a+b(0)------------------(1)
• 63= a(0)+10b-----------------(2)
• Solving both equation we get:
• a=52
• b=3.3
• Therefore the equation for the line of best fit is equal
to:
• Y=52+3.3X.
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(B) Least Square Method – Contd…
• Using this equation trend values for previous years and
estimates of sales for 2001. The trend values and
estimates are as follows:-
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Barometric Techniques – Contd…
Advantages
1. It is a simple method.
2. It predicts directional changes quite accurately.
Disadvantages
1. It does not predict the magnitude of changes very well.
2. Finding out a leading indicator for any series is not always
feasible.
3. The lead time is maintained consistently by a very few time
series.
4. The method can be used for short term forecasts only.
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(3) Economic Techniques
• These techniques forecast demand on the basis of
systematic analysis of economic relations by combining
theory with mathematical and statistical tools.
• While economic theory is used to identify those
variables on which other variable depend, the
relationship between the dependent and casual
variables is estimated through the mathematical or
statistical tools.
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(3) Economic Techniques – Contd…
Regression
Model
Economical
Techniques
Simultaneous
Equation Model
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(A) Regression Method
• Simple regression is used when the quantity demanded
is estimated as a function of single independent
variable.
• This is a mathematical tool, with this adapting “Method
of least squares” a trend line can be fixed to know the
relationship between time and demand/sales. Based on
this trend line sales /demand can be projected for
future years.
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(A) Regression Method – Contd…
• Regression method combines economic theory and
statistical techniques of estimation.
• Under this method a relationship is established between
quantity demanded (dependent variable) and
independent variable such as income, price of the goods
etc.
• Once the relationship is established, the equation will be
Y = a + bX
• This equation gives estimated value of Y when X is
known.
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(A) Regression Method- Contd…
Advantages
1. As the method is based on casual relationship, it
produces reliable and accurate results.
2. Besides generating the forecast, it also explains the
economic phenomenon.
3. It is neither as subjective as the qualitative techniques
nor as mechanistic as the quantitative ones.
4. This method not only forecasts the direction but also
the magnitude of the change.
5. The method is quite consistent.
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(A) Regression Method – Contd…
Disadvantages
1. The method uses complex calculations.
2. It is costly and time consuming.
3. It requires the use of some other forecasting technique
for estimating the value of the casual variables.
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(B) Simultaneous Equations Method
• When the inter-relationship between the economic
variables becomes complex, the use of single equation
regression method becomes difficult.
• In such cases, forecasting of demand is done using
multiple simultaneous equations which are generally
behavioral equations, mathematical identities and
market based equations.
• This is a complex statistical method of forecasting where
a complete model is developed explaining the behavior
of all the economic variables.
• This technique uses sophisticated mathematical and
statistical tools.
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(B) Simultaneous Equation Method – Contd…
Y = aX2 + bX + c
ΣY = aΣX2 + bΣX + nc -------- (1)
ΣXY = aΣX3 + bΣX2 + cΣX --------(2)
ΣX2Y = aΣX4 + bΣX3 + cΣX2 --------(3)
◼ Once the coefficients of the trend equation are estimated, we
can easily project the trend for future periods.
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Project Report
• A project report is a written document with respect to
any investment proposal based on certain information
and factual data for the purpose of appraising the
project. It describes the business intended to be
undertaken by the entrepreneur in terms of feasibility,
commercial viability and social desirability. It is also used
to formally communicate the project promoter’s decision
of venturing a new project to financial institutions to
government departments for getting their approvals. A
project report is prepared by an expert after a detailed
analysis of the various aspects of a project.
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Objectives of Project Report
• The basic aim of a project report is to assess the financial
viability of a project as well as the soundness of its
production, marketing and other related aspects.
• It has the following objectives:
1. It facilitates business planning.
2. It enables an entrepreneur to compare different
investment proposals and select the most feasible
project.
3. It provides a SWOT analysis, wherein the strengths,
weaknesses, opportunities and threats involved in the
project are identified.
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Objectives of Project Report – Contd…
4. The project report enables the entrepreneur to
ensure that he is proceeding in the right direction.
5. It also enables the concerned authorities to take
decisions.
6. It facilitates project evaluation and appraisal.
7. It helps the financial institutions to make appraisal as
regards financial, economic and technical feasibility.
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Contents of a Project Report
1. General information pertaining to the project.
2. Background and experience of the project promoters.
3. Details of industrial concerns owned or promoted by promoters.
4. Details of the proposed project including*
5. Schedule of implementation of the project.
6. The details of the costs involved in the project.
7. The financers of the project.
8. Working capital requirements.
9. Marketing and selling provisions.
10. Profitability and cash flow estimates.
11. Mode of repayment of term loans.
12. Government approvals, local body consents, statutory
permissions.
13. Details of collateral security that will be offered to the financial
institution.
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Contents of a Project Report – Contd…
4. Details of the proposed project including the following:
a) Plant Capacity.
b) Technical know-how.
c) The manufacturing processes to be used.
d) Details of the team involved in the project.
e) Details of the land, building, plant and machinery.
f) Details of the infrastructural facilities required for the
project.
g) Raw material requirement/ availability.
h) Labor requirements/ availability, etc.
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Thank You