Good Pilot Decision Making

The old saying tells us that good judgment comes from

experience, but experience comes from bad judgment.
Perhaps theres a better

We all know most accidents are caused by pilot errors in judgment, reasoning,
or skill. We learn through our mistakes. But, we can’t make (and survive) all
possible mistakes ourselves. So, the FAA tries to teach us good judgment and
reasoning.

In AC 60-22, Aeronautical Decision Making, the FAA claims that good judgment
can be taught besides being learned from experience. Aeronautical Decision
Making, ADM, builds upon conventional decision making to help decrease the
likelihood of errors in the cockpit. It is a structured, systematic approach using
risk-management tools called PAVE and DECIDE.

Validating ADM, the AC cites a study where student pilots who received ADM
training made 10-50 percent fewer judgment errors than untrained students.
This is why the new Airman Certification Standards incorporate a risk
management component into every task to promote learning and applying risk
management during flight training.

Yet learning ADM is challenging in part because much FAA documentation is,
frankly, poorly organized and excessively wordy. These and other weaknesses
can make it difficult to learn and apply the various ADM tools: PAVE, PPP, CARE,
TEAM and DECIDE. That’s where we come in, providing a cohesive diagram and
some text that shows where everything fits and how it all works together.
PAVE the Way
PAVE defines the four major hazards of flight: Pilot, Aircraft, enVironmental and
External. Hazards create risk, making PAVE critical in risk management and
ultimately preflight and in-flight aeronautical decision-making.

P = Pilot
The IMSAFE checklist helps you—the PIC—assess yourself physically before any
given flight. It’s fine as a medical arbiter of your fitness to fly, but IMSAFE alone
is insufficient. Are you adequately experienced to do the trip? If carrying
passengers, are you current? How about instrument currency? Do you have a
current flight review? You get the idea.

A = Aircraft
Is your aircraft up to the task? A 160-hp Cessna 172 may not be the right
aircraft for a departure from a high-density-altitude airport. Many instrument
pilots will not fly single-pilot IFR without a working autopilot. Well, how about if
it’s half-working? Would you fly a two thousand-mile round-trip in a Cirrus SR22
if the vertical modes in the autopilot were broken? I declined just such a flight
recently. The outbound leg would have been partly at night. Who could know if
the horizontal modes might fail next and leave us with no autopilot in an
airplane designed to fly on autopilot?

Some aircraft (e.g., Cessnas with G1000 avionics) have a Kinds Of Equipment
Listing (KOEL) that specifies the aircraft components required for day/night
IFR/VFR. Have you applied it to your aircraft? Is the GPS database current?

V = EnVironment
We look askance at the weather forecast, knowing that it’s an educated guess,
and that it becomes more accurate with time and evolving into actual weather.

Expected ceiling and visibility at the destination matter. You might have to fly
an approach to minimums, perhaps declare an alternate and be prepared to fly
it. Time can be your friend or enemy; what’s the weather trend?

Winds aloft can take a serious bite out of your range. Wind at your destination
may not favor the preferred instrument runway. Is another runway available?
Could you circle to land? Could you and your aircraft handle the crosswind? Are
you prepared for that?

Safe VMC havens along your route are always smart in case you need to get to
VMC in a pinch. It could be right under you if the ceilings beneath you are
above the OROCA, MEA or MOCA.

Electronic planning tools should automatically show you enroute and

destination NOTAMs including airspace restrictions and TFRs. If you brief via
FSS, ask for published NOTAMs. Once a NOTAM is published, FSS assumes that
you have read it.
Environment also means terrain. Are you qualified and prepared for the terrain
you’ll encounter? Can your aircraft handle it? Will the terrain in the vicinity of
your destination cause any additional weather or wind concerns?

E = External Pressures
Another old saying tells us that takeoffs are optional while landings are
mandatory. Although you may have a personal need to reach the destination,
there’s nothing mandatory about making that flight. The safest word in aviation
is “No.” In the Cirrus case above, the person requesting the trip was a bright
but rusty, low-time instrument-rated private pilot. He was never taught how to
properly evaluate a proposed trip. It is for people like him that risk
management and aeronautical decision-making tools are so important.

Pilots are often mission-oriented people. That makes us very susceptible to

external pressures. One could say that you hold a license because you have
been trained to recognize unacceptable risk. Nonpilots often equate GA with
airline reliability, giving them unrealistic expectations as to our capabilities.
Therefore, simply set expectations where they need to be.

If you elect to go, take more pressure off yourself by briefing the passengers
that this will not be like flying in coach. It could be bumpy. Ask passengers
whether they are can handle you landing at other than your destination or
even turning back. If someone is prone to motion sickness, yours could be an
extremely uncomfortable trip without medication.
Leave yourself several outs. You would do this anyway during preflight
planning; it also takes pressure off you. GA flights seldom depart as planned
and usually take longer than expected. Add extra time to your ETA because
unpredictable delays are inevitable. Leave your last hour of fuel in reserve.
Take more pressure off yourself by telling someone meeting your flight to be
there well after your planned ETA.

Selecting a Response Type

There are two ways to respond to change identified through PAVE. It could be
something as simple as making a course correction, setting trim or power.
These automatic responses as skills or procedures don’t—or shouldn’t—
require much thought. They include immediate action items and emergencies.
You flow around the loop on the left until the situation is under control.

Some responses call for analytical “headwork” and this is why the right-hand
loop exists. The first stop is Attitude Management.

Attitude Management
Five hazardous attitudes can be mitigated by the proper antidote—but you first
must recognize the attitude. If you have low oil pressure, telling yourself that
it’s not happening and the gauge is wrong isn’t helpful. If instead you accept
that it is happening, then move to the next step.

Stress Management
Airborne, stress management can be reduced to three simple words: Stop,
think, analyze. It is better to do nothing than the wrong thing. Some say that
the first thing to do in an emergency is to “wind your watch.” However dated,
the dictum is sound: Take no action until you think through which action is
best. Doing so helps prevent jumping to incorrect conclusions and/or making
things worse. You may also have heard, “No fast hands in the cockpit.”
However you choose to remember, slow down and think things through.

Headwork Responses
The FAA’s approach to ADM and Risk Management has evolved since the Pilot’s
Handbook of Aeronautical Knowledge (PHAK) addressed it in 2008 and again in
2016. Risk Management occurs when headwork is required and decisions are
made.
The PHAK offers us two models for practical risk management. The first invokes
the Perceive-Process-Perform or 3P model combined with PAVE. We evaluate
PAVE-identified hazards using something called the CARE checklist. Finally, the
TEAM checklist offers ways to eliminate or minimize risks identified by CARE.

The second model is the better-known DECIDE model. We’ll discuss both.

Perceive, Process, Perform (3P)

The 3P model is one way of making aeronautical decisions. First, Perceive a
given set of circumstances for your flight using PAVE. Then Process the
circumstances by evaluating their effect on flight safety with CARE. Lastly,
Perform the best course of action using TEAM. This process should run in your
mind over and over until it becomes habitual.

PAVE Identifies Hazards

PAVE identifies hazards, and hazards create risks. Once a hazard is identified,
the CARE model processes it to see if the hazard is a risk. The PHAK defines risk
“as the future effect of a hazard which is not controlled or eliminated.”

The degree of a risk can be weighed in terms of exposure, severity and

probability. An exposure could include the number of people or resources that
would be affected. Severity is the extent of possible loss. Last, what is the
probability that a hazard will cause a loss? Paraphrasing the PHAK, “why should
you CARE about these circumstances?”

CARE
The CARE model has four elements: Consequences, Alternatives, Reality and
External Pressures.

Does the hazard identified by PAVE have consequences? ATC advises of severe
weather along your route of flight. That’s a definite risk that could have
unpleasant consequences.

Now, alternatives. Could you deviate to bypass the weather? Is diverting an

option? Can you ask or does ATC have a suggestion that might be a viable way
around Mother Nature’s ferocity? In flight, always be considering alternatives.
Apply 3P. Never just sit and drive.

The reality could be that the weather is all well below your altitude, meaning
alternatives are unneeded. Or you could be facing a sickly-green monster with
lightning everywhere and reality dictates that continuing is impossible.

External pressure is the most dangerous of all risk factors because these
pressures cause pilots to ignore all other risk factors. Your gut knows the truth.
Never ignore that little voice of reason.

TEAM
Aware or not, you’re applying 3P: You Perceived a hazard using PAVE. You
Processed its effect on flight safety with CARE. It’s time to Perform risk
management using TEAM to achieve the outcome that reduces or eliminates
the risk most effectively.

Perhaps you could Transfer the risk decision to someone else, say the CFII to
your right or to the PIC if you’re SIC. Clearly, this doesn’t work for single-pilot
operations.

You might be able to Eliminate the hazard. For instance, skip bad weather at
your destination by diverting to your alternate.

In some cases, you can Accept the risk if the benefits outweigh the costs. You
might be better off landing on a shorter runway into a stiff wind rather than
dealing with it as a crosswind.

Regardless of other factors, it’s always a good idea to Mitigate the risk,
lessening its effect. Say you’ve got a long leg over water. Plan your routing to
shorten it as much as practical.
In sum: Act to eliminate hazards or minimize risk, then continuously evaluate
the action’s outcome.

DECIDE
Recognized worldwide, DECIDE is a simple six-step continuous loop offering
you a logical way to make decisions.

Your senses Detect that an unexpected event occurred. You use your insight
and experience; you objectively analyze all available information. Then you
Estimate the nature of the issue and how severe it might be. A caution: If you
incorrectly define the problem, incorrect decision-making will follow.

Choose a course of action that leads to a desired outcome. Many pilots have an
issue here. They know the right thing to do, but mistrust their judgment.

Example: They see they are high or low on final, yet fail to reduce/add power to
make a safe landing.

The above means that the pilot has failed to Identify one or more solutions that
will lead to a safe landing. Frozen by indecision may mean no decision and
hence no corrective action.

All the above is for naught if the pilot doesn’t Do something. Once corrective
actions are decided, the pilot has to implement them.

It’s not over until it’s over. Evaluate the action to see if it worked. If not, the
DECIDE model may have to be run again.
Decisions, Decisions
Which risk management model is best? PAVE/CARE/TEAM has more steps, but
excels at separating hazards from risks and mitigating risks. DECIDE is simpler,
but offers less structure. Tape a copy of the models in your cockpit or scan
both models into your iPad. Use them both to see how they work for you.
Whichever you choose, better cockpit decisions will result.