Chapter Sixteen

Attitude Measurement
Learning Objectives

At the end of this chapter, the student should be able to:

• Identify basic approaches to measuring attitudes

• Discuss the use of rating scales for measuring attitudes
• Represent a latent construct by constructing a summated
scale
• Summarize ways to measure attitudes with ranking and
sorting techniques
• Discuss major issues involved in the selection of a
measurement scale
 Research Skills
At the end of this chapter, the student should be able to:

• Explain what a Likert scale is and design a ten item Likert scale
to measure attitudes to a new product;
• Explain what a rating scale is and design a ten item rating
scale for a training programme;
• Explain what a semantic differential scale with the use of an
example;
• Explain what is meant by the term ‘sentence completion
exercise’, with the use of an example;
• Explain what vignettes are and briefly outline a small research
project to be carried out using vignettes.
 What is An Attitude?
• Attitude
• An enduring disposition to consistently respond in a
given manner to various aspects of the world.
• Components of attitudes:
• Affective Component
• The feelings or emotions toward an object
• Cognitive Component
• Knowledge and beliefs about an object
• Behavioral Component
• Predisposition to action
• Intentions
• Behavioral expectations
 Attitudes as Hypothetical Constructs
• Hypothetical Construct
• Variables that are not directly observable but are
measurable through indirect indicators, such as verbal
expression or overt behavior.
• Also known a latent constructs or simply constructs.
• Common constructs:
• Job satisfaction
• Organizational commitment
• Personal values
• Feelings
• Role stress
 Importance of Measuring Attitudes
• Most managers hold the intuitive belief that changing
consumers’ or employees’ attitudes toward their
company or their company’s products or services is a
major goal.
• Because modifying attitudes plays a pervasive role in
developing strategies to address these goals, the
measurement of attitudes is an important task.
 Techniques for Measuring Attitudes
• A remarkable variety of techniques has been
devised to measure attitudes.
• This variety stems in part from lack of consensus
about the exact definition of the concept.
• In addition, the cognitive, affective, and
behavioral components of an attitude may be
measured by different means.
 Techniques for Measuring Attitudes
• Ranking
– Requiring the respondent to rank order objects in
overall performance on the basis of a characteristic
or stimulus.
• Rating
– Asking the respondent to estimate the magnitude of
a characteristic, or quality, that an object possesses
by indicating on a scale where he or she would rate
an object.
 Techniques for Measuring Attitudes
• Sorting
– Presenting the respondent with several concepts
typed on cards and requiring the respondent to
arrange the cards into a number of piles or otherwise
classify the concepts.
• Choice
– Asking a respondent to choose one alternative from
among several alternatives; it is assumed that the
chosen alternative is preferred over the others.
 Attitude Rating Scales
• Simple Attitude Scale
– Requires that an individual agree/disagree with a
statement or respond to a single question.
• This type of self-rating scale classifies respondents into one
of two categories (e.g., yes or no).
• Example:

THE PRESIDENT SHOULD RUN FOR RE-ELECTION

_______ AGREE ______ DISAGREE
 Attitude Rating Scales (cont’d)
• Category Scale
– A more sensitive measure than a simple scale in that it can
have more than two response categories.
• Question construction is an extremely important factor in increasing
the usefulness of these scales.
• Example:

How important were the following in your decision to visit San Diego? (check one for
each item)
VERY SOMEWHAT NOT TOO
IMPORTANT IMPORTANT IMPORTANT
CLIMATE ___________ ___________ ___________
COST OF TRAVEL ___________ ___________ ___________
FAMILY ORIENTED ___________ ___________ ___________
EDUCATIONAL/HISTORICAL ASPECTS ___________ ___________ ___________
FAMILIARITY WITH AREA ___________ ___________ ___________
 Attitude Rating Scales (cont’d)
• Method of Summated Ratings: Likert Scale
• A popular means for measuring attitudes.
• Respondents indicate their own attitudes by checking how
strongly they agree or disagree with statements.
• Typical response alternatives: “strongly agree,” “agree,” “uncertain,”
“disagree,” and “strongly disagree.”

• Example:
It is more fun to play a tough, competitive tennis match than to play an easy one.
___Strongly Agree ___Agree ___Not Sure ___Disagree ___Strongly Disagree
 Attitude Rating Scales (cont’d)
• Semantic Differential
– A series of seven-point rating scales with bipolar adjectives,
such as “good” and “bad,” anchoring the ends (or poles) of the
scale.
• A weight is assigned to each position on the scale. Traditionally, scores
are 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, or +3, +2, +1, 0, -1, -2, -3.
• Example:
Exciting ___ : ___ : ___ : ___ : ___ : ___ : ___ Calm
Interesting ___ : ___ : ___ : ___ : ___ : ___ : ___ Dull
Simple ___ : ___ : ___ : ___ : ___ : ___ : ___ Complex
Passive ___ : ___ : ___ : ___ : ___ : ___ : ___ Active
 Other Scale Types (cont’d)
• Image Profile
– A graphic representation of semantic differential data for
competing brands, products, or stores to highlight
comparisons.
– Because the data are assumed to be interval, either the
arithmetic mean or the median will be used to compare
the profile of one product, brand, or store with that of a
competing product, brand, or store.
Example: Image Profile of Private versus Public High Schools
 Attitude Rating Scales (cont’d)
• Numerical Scales
• Scales that have numbers as response options, rather
than “semantic space” or verbal descriptions, to
identify categories (response positions).
• In practice, researchers have found that a scale with
numerical labels for intermediate points on the scale is as
effective a measure as the true semantic differential.
• Example:
• Now that you’ve had your automobile for about one year,
please tell us how satisfied you are with your Ford Taurus.
Extremely Dissatisfied 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Extremely Satisfied
 Other Scale Types (cont’d)
• Stapel Scale
– Uses a single adjective as a substitute for the
semantic differential when it is difficult to create
pairs of bipolar adjectives.
– Tends to be easier to conduct and administer than
a semantic differential scale.
 Other Scale Types (cont’d)
• Constant-Sum Scale
• Respondents are asked to divide a constant sum to
indicate the relative importance of attributes.
• Respondents often sort cards, but the task may also be a rating
task (e.g., indicating brand preference).
• Example:
• Divide 100 points among each of the following brands
according to your preference for the brand:
• Brand A _________
• Brand B _________
• Brand C _________
 Other Scale Types (cont’d)
• Graphic Rating Scale
– A measure of attitude that allows respondents to
rate an object by choosing any point along a graphic
continuum.
– Advantage:
• Allows the researcher to choose any interval desired for
scoring purposes.
– Disadvantage:
• There are no standard answers.
A Ladder Scale
Graphic Rating Scale with Picture Response Categories
Stressing Visual Communication
 Measuring Behavioral Intention
• Behavioral Component
– The behavioral expectations (expected future actions) of an
individual toward an attitudinal object.
• Example:
– How likely is it that you will purchase an iPad?
• I definitely will buy
• I probably will buy
• I might buy
• I probably will not buy
• I definitely will not buy
 Measuring Behavioral Intention
• Behavioral Differential
– A rating scale instrument similar to a semantic differential,
developed to measure the behavioral intentions of subjects
toward future actions.
• A description of the object to be judged is placed on the top of a
sheet, and the subjects indicate their behavioral intentions toward
this object on a series of scales.
• Example:
A 25 year-old female sales representative
Would ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ Would Not
ask this person for advice.
Summary of Advantages and Disadvantages of
Rating Scales
 Ranking
• An ordinal scale may be developed by asking
respondents to rank order (from most preferred
to least preferred) a set of objects or attributes.
– Paired comparisons
– Sorting
 Paired Comparison
A measurement technique that involves presenting the respondent
with two objects and asking the respondent to pick the preferred
object; more than two objects may be presented, but comparisons
are made in pairs.
‘I would like to know your overall opinion of two brands of adhesive
bandages. They are Curad and Band-Aid. Overall, which of these
two brands—Curad or Band-Aid—do you think is the better one?
Or are both the same?’
• ‘Curad is better.’
• ‘Band-Aid is better.’
• ‘They are the same.’
 Sorting
• Require that respondents indicate their attitudes or
beliefs by arranging items on the basis of perceived
similarity or some other attribute.

• Example:
Here is a sheet that lists several airlines. Next to the name of each airline is a pocket. Here are ten cards. I
would like you to put these cards in the pockets next to the airlines you would prefer to fly on your next trip.
Assume that all of the airlines fly to wherever you would choose to travel. You can put as many cards as you
want next to an airline, or you can put no cards next to an airline.
Cards
Emirates _____
British Airways _____
Air France _____
Quantas _____
Singapore Airlines _____
easyJet _____
Selecting a Measurement Scale
• Some Practical Questions:
1. Is a ranking, sorting, rating, or choice technique best?
2. Should a monadic or a comparative scale be used?
3. What type of category labels, if any, will be used for the rating
scale?
4. How many scale categories or response positions are needed to
accurately measure an attitude?
5. Should a balanced or unbalanced rating scale be chosen?
6. Should an even or odd number of response categories be provided?
7. Should a scale that forces a choice among predetermined options be
used?
8. Should a single measure or an index measure be used?
Selecting a Measurement Scale (cont’d)

• Monadic Rating Scale

• Asks about a single concept in isolation.
• The respondent is not given a specific frame of
reference.

• Example:
Please indicate how satisfied you are with the amount of
authority you are given in your present position.
 Selecting a Measurement Scale (cont’d)

• Comparative Rating Scale

• Asks respondents to rate a concept in comparison with
a benchmark explicitly used as a frame of reference.
• Example:

Please indicate how the amount of authority in your present position

compares with the amount of authority that would be ideal for this
position.
TOO MUCH  ABOUT RIGHT  TOO LITTLE 
 Selecting a Measurement Scale (cont’d)

• What Type of Category Labels, If Any?

• Verbal labels for response categories help respondents better
understand the response positions.
• The maturity and educational levels of the respondents will
influence the labeling decision.
• How Many Scale Categories or Response Positions?
• Five to eight points are optimal for sensitivity.
• The researcher must determine the number
of positions that is best for the specific project.
 Selecting a Measurement Scale (cont’d)
• Balanced Rating Scale
• A fixed-alternative rating scale with an equal number
of positive and negative categories; a neutral point or
point of indifference is at the center of the scale.
• Example:
How satisfied are you with the campus bookshop?

Very Neither Satisfied Very

Satisfied Satisfied Nor Dissatisfied Dissatisfied Dissatisfied
 Selecting a Measurement Scale (cont’d)
• Unbalanced Rating Scale
• A fixed-alternative rating scale that has more response
categories at one end than the other resulting in an
unequal number of positive and negative categories.
• Example:
How satisfied are you with the campus bookshop?

Neither Satisfied Very

Satisfied Nor Dissatisfied Dissatisfied Dissatisfied
 Selecting a Measurement Scale (cont’d)

• Forced-choice Rating Scale

– A fixed-alternative rating scale that requires respondents
to choose one of the fixed alternatives.
• Non-forced Choice Scale
– A fixed-alternative rating scale that provides a “no
opinion” category or that allows respondents to indicate
that they cannot say which alternative is their choice.
 Chapter Twenty

Completing and Presenting the

Research
 Aim of the Chapter

The aim of this chapter is:

• to explain the importance of the written report of the research project;

• to explain the concept of conclusions in research;
• to demonstrate how conclusions should be drawn;
• and to help you, the student, develop the skills needed to complete the
write-up of a thesis.

The means by which the research project is brought full-circle is

demonstrated in the chapter by explaining how the conclusions of the
research project respond to the original research question or statement of the
research project.

The chapter explains how the final chapter of the thesis, or section of the
research report, is designed to answer fully and completely the research
question, or it is designed to respond to fully and completely the research
statement, the aim of the research project.
 LEARNING OBJECTIVES

At the end of this chapter the student should be able to:

• Conceptualise and present conclusions from research;

• Conceptualise and present recommendations for research

projects;

• Complete the final written report of a research project;

• Present the research.

 RESEARCH SKILLS

At the end of this chapter the student should be able to:

• Explain what a conclusion is in a research project, and what

conclusions represent in terms of the research endeavor;

• Explain how good and useful recommendations are

conceptualized and presented;

• Critique the conclusions and recommendations from a given

research project.
 Introduction
• The chapter explains and demonstrates what is meant by the implications of the
conclusions of the research project.

• The process of theorising conclusions is explained and demonstrated in the

chapter.

• The chapter explains and demonstrates how recommendations are made in a

research project.

• The chapter considers the writing process in terms of writing a thesis and the
chapter presents tips for writing and the writing process.

• The chapter explains and demonstrates how the written research project fits
together, how it is structured and designed.

• The chapter explains the importance and the limitations of the first draft of the
thesis. The chapter explains the importance of editing. The chapter explains the
importance of sequence, of synthesis and of integration in the final draft of the
thesis.
 The Final Chapter of the Thesis:
Drawing Conclusions and Writing
Recommendations

• In the final chapter of the thesis, (or the final section of the research
report), the researcher presents the conclusions and recommendations of
the research project.

• In general, the final chapter of the thesis is a relatively short chapter.

• There is an exception, however, to this general rule. If, for example, a

grounded theory methodology has been used in the research project, the
final chapter will be a substantial chapter; it will contain a full and detailed
outline and explanation of the theory developed through the research
 Drawing Conclusions and Writing
Recommendations
• All research undertaken within an academic setting is required to make a
contribution to knowledge.

• Academic research, as explained in this textbook, emerges from some body of

knowledge, and in turn, in makes a contribution to that body of knowledge.

• In the final chapter of the thesis, as well as presenting the findings of the
research, the conclusions drawn from the research and the recommendations
the researcher makes based on the research, the researcher theorises the
conclusions drawn from the research.

• The process of theorising conclusions is the same as the process of theorisation

in the four stages of data analysis. The four stages of data analysis, as
explained in the previous three chapters, are description, interpretation,
conclusion and theorisation.

• In the process of theorizing conclusions, the researcher draws on the work of

other researchers and theorists and they knit their conclusions into the
conclusions of these researchers and theorists. Through this process the
researcher enriches the reporting of their conclusions.
 Conclusions in Research
• A conclusion is essentially a judgement, a final decision.

• At the end of the research process, the researcher comes to a final conclusion, or several
final conclusions, about the research.

• This final decision or final judgement that the researcher makes will relate to, or respond to,
the research question or statement.

• It will relate to the overall aim of the research project.

• We have seen throughout this textbook how the four frameworks approach to the research
project facilitates the researcher in building the research project on the conceptual
framework, the research statement or question, the overall aim of the research.

• Now in this final phase of the research project, the researcher conceptualises the overall
conclusion of the research project.
• The conclusions must emerge logically and validly from the findings, emerge from the
analysis of the data gathered, in such a way as to ensure that the overall conclusion drawn
from the research responds to the research question or statement and accomplishes the
overall aim of the research project.
 The Overall Conclusion

• The overall conclusion that the researcher draws from the research is
presented at the start of the final chapter, the chapter on conclusions and
recommendations.

• The overall conclusion drawn by the researcher is a response to the

research question or statement, a response to the overall aim of the
research. It is the final accomplishment of the overall aim of the research
project.

• The overall conclusion from the research project is presented at the start
of the final chapter, and then it is thoroughly discussed and explained.

• This is followed by the presentation of a number of main conclusions, all

drawn from the overall conclusion. Each of the main conclusions is
presented and fully discussed.
 Research Diary Exercise

• It is a good idea when writing the conclusions section of the final

chapter to use your research diary to jot down the minor conclusions
detailed in the data analysis chapter and the ideas and thoughts you
have in relation to them.

• When you have done that, you should tease out the different aspects
and elements of those conclusions.

• The more detail you can jot down in your research diary the better.

• Then from the detail you can create, (conceptualise), the overall
conclusion you wish to present in your thesis.

• You can use the detail from your research diary to illustrate in your
writing the complexity of that overall conclusion. This should reflect the
complexity of the research undertaken.
 Implications of Conclusions

• When the conclusions have been presented, the implications of the

conclusions should be explored.

• The implications of the conclusions are the meaning the conclusions have
for different parties or constituents to the research project.

• Conclusions can have implications for many constituents.

• For example, in the professional development example given, the

conclusions drawn will have implications for the company, for the people
giving the training, and for the staff undergoing the training. The company
will have the cost of developing a new training programme, and then the
benefits of the new training programme.
 The Recommendations of the Study

• The recommendations of the study are the ways forward

from the research as recommended by the researcher.

• Recommendations are courses of action that the researcher

recommends based on the findings of the research and the
conclusions drawn from those findings.

• The recommendations, following a brief introduction, can be

presented as a list of bullet points.
 The following points should be kept in mind
when conceptualising the recommendations
for the study:

• Recommendations should be succinct;

• They should be meaningful in relation to the aim and objectives of the

research;

• They should respond to the research question or statement;

• Recommendations should be do-able or achievable.

• There is no point in making recommendations that cannot possibly be put
in action, perhaps because the necessary resources would be not
available, or perhaps because there would be too much opposition to
them, or for other reasons.
 Conceptualising Recommendations

• Often a researcher will draw up a list of twenty or more recommendations in the

process of listing all of the possible recommendations.

• It is a good idea to do this to begin with.

• Then, through a process of refining the recommendations, by collapsing some

together, by eliminating some, by incorporating some of them together into one
overarching recommendation, the researcher will produce a list of eight to ten
meaningful recommendations for the research project.

• As during the conclusions phase of the research, the researcher explores the
implications of the conclusions drawn from the research for different constituents
to the research, the researcher may also make separate recommendations for
different constituents to the research.

• For example, using the example of the professional development training

programme above, there might be recommendations for the company, for the
training programme, for the trainers, and for the staff of the company.
 Writing the Research Project

• The process of writing the research project is perhaps the most critical
aspect of all aspects of the research process.

• It is through writing about the research project that the researcher

communicates the research, what the research was about, how the
research was carried out, and what was accomplished through the
research.

• It is important to begin the process of writing the thesis as early as possible.

• Very rarely do researchers have enough time to conduct the research they
wish to conduct, or at least this is usually how researchers feel, that there is
a time constraint.

• Because of this time constraint, it is important to get working on the

research project as soon as possible.
 Common Research Problems
• One of the most common mistakes students make in writing research is that they
do not take proper care with the language they use, or with spelling, grammar and
syntax. Poorly written and poorly presented theses lose marks, a lot of marks,
unnecessarily.

• Perhaps the most important element of writing is the need to write to a point. You
should always have a point when you are writing, a point that you are trying, in your
writing, to make.

• When you are reading a section of your research, ask yourself, what is the point?
What point am I making here? Is it an important point? Is the point clear? Is the
point as clear as it could be?

• Remember, in writing you are attempting to communicate. You have to structure

your communication in such a way as to help the reader understand what it is that
you are saying.

• All of the points that you make in your writing should contribute to your overall
argument. You should never in your writing lose sight of your overall argument.
• What is your overall argument? How well are you making that overall argument?
• In your writing, try to argue persuasively.
 Completing the writing up process

• Completing the first draft of the thesis is a major milestone. It is at this point that you can
see the scale of the research project, and at first sight it is always impressive.

• Once the first draft of the thesis or report is complete, it is time to begin the process of re-
writing the thesis and the process of editing the thesis. It is at this stage, the polishing
stage, that the final draft of the thesis comes into being.

• It is important to remember that the first draft is simply that, the first draft. A great deal of
work is done in producing the final draft of the thesis from the first draft.

• It is a good idea to submit the first draft for formal feedback from your thesis supervisor.
The feedback you receive should then be incorporated into the final draft of the thesis.

• It is important in the editing and polishing stage to take as much time as is needed to
produce the final draft of the thesis. The work involved in producing the final draft is the
work of re-writing, editing and re-editing.

• Hopefully when you’ve finished this work you will have a complete, well-structured and
integrated-integrated research project.
 Basic Business Research Report

The outline of a basic business research report follows the steps in the model of the
research process outlined at the start of Chapter 1 of this textbook.

When pure or basic research reports are written, such as might be submitted and
potentially published in an academic business journal, the outline changes slightly since
some components become irrelevant.

The basic research report will place a greater emphasis on how the current research is
integrated into the previous literature dealing with the research topic.

A quick look at an academic business journal like the Journal of Business Research, the
Journal of Marketing, the Journal of Finance, or the Journal of Management will give a
reader a feel for this type of writing.

Overall, though, both basic and applied business research reports involve technical writing
and the principles of good technical writing apply.
 Effective Use of Graphic Aids

• Used properly, graphic aids can clarify complex points or emphasize a

message. Used improperly or sloppily, they can distract or even
mislead a reader.

• Graphic aids work best when they are an integral part of the text. The
graphics should always be interpreted in the text.

• This does not mean that the writer should exhaustively explain an
obvious chart or table, but it does mean that the text should point out
the key elements of any graphic aid and relate them to the discussion in
progress.
 The Oral Presentation

• The conclusions and recommendations of most research reports are often

presented orally as well as in writing.
• The purpose of an oral presentation is to highlight the most important findings of
a research project and provide clients or line managers with an opportunity to
ask questions.
• The key to effective presentation is preparation.
• The researcher should select the three or four most important findings for
emphasis and rely on the written report for a full summary.
• The researcher also needs to be ready to defend the results of the research. This
is not the same as being defensive; instead, the researcher should be prepared
to deal in a confident, competent manner with the questions that arise.
• Remember that even the most reliable and valid research project is worthless if
the managers who must act on its results are not convinced of its importance.
 DATA FALLACIES TO AVOID

CHERRY PICKING DATA DREDGING SURVIVORSHIP BIAS

Selecting results that fit your claim and excluding Repeatedly testing new hypotheses against the same Drawing conclusions from an incomplete set of data,
those that don’t. set of data, failing to acknowledge that most because that data has ‘survived’ some selection criteria.
correlations will be the result of chance.

COBRA EFFECT FALSE CAUSALITY GERRYMANDERING

Setting an incentive that accidentally produces the Falsely assuming when two events appear related Manipulating the geographical boundaries used to
opposite result to the one intended. Also known as a that one must have caused the other. group data in order to change the result.
Perverse Incentive.

SAMPLING BIAS GAMBLER’S FALLACY HAWTHORNE EFFECT

Drawing conclusions from a set of data that isn’t Mistakenly believing that because something has The act of monitoring someone can affect their
representative of the population you’re trying to understand. happened more frequently than usual, it’s now less behaviour, leading to spurious findings. Also known as
likely to happen in future (and vice versa). the Observer Effect.

REGRESSION TOWARDS THE MEAN SIMPSON’S PARADOX MCNAMARA FALLACY

When something happens that’s unusually good or When a trend appears in different subsets of data but Relying solely on metrics in complex situations and
bad, it will revert back towards the average over time. disappears or reverses when the groups are combined. losing sight of the bigger picture.

OVERFITTING PUBLICATION BIAS DANGER OF SUMMARY METRICS

Creating a model that’s overly tailored to the data you Interesting research findings are more likely to be Only looking at summary metrics and missing big
have and not representative of the general trend. published, distorting our impression of reality. differences in the raw data.

Read more at data-literacy.geckoboard.com

 Chapter Five
The Role of Theory
 CHAPTER GOALS
1. Define the meaning of theory
2. Understand the role of theory
3. Understand the terms concepts, propositions,
variables, and hypotheses
4. Discuss how theories are developed
5. Draw on theory and develop theory in a
research project
 Theory and Practice

• What if the lights didn’t come on when you flipped the

switch?
• You would seek a logical explanation.
• Past experience would guide your thoughts.
• Attribution theory is one framework that helps explain
the world.
 What is a Theory?

• Theory
• A formal, logical explanation of some events that
includes predictions or how things relate to one
another.
• Goals of Theory
• Understanding (as a «consumer of research»)
• Predicting (as a «producer of research»)
 Research Concepts

• Concept (or construct)

• A generalized idea about a class of objects, attributes,
occurrences or process that has been given a name.
Examples:
 leadership
 morale
 gross domestic product
 assets
 customer satisfaction
 market share
 Social Network Theory

• Researchers have developed theories about the links and

structures of social networks, complete with constructs and
propositions about how linkages are formed and the social
capital they yield.
 Ladder of Abstraction

• Ladder of Abstraction
• Organization of concepts in sequence from the most concrete and individual
to the most general.
• Abstract Level
• The level of knowledge expressing a concept that exists only as an idea or a
quality apart from an object.
• Empirical Level
• The level of knowledge that is verifiable by experience or observation.
• Latent Construct
• A concept that is not directly observable or measurable, but can be
estimated through proxy measures.
A Ladder of Abstraction for Concepts
 Research Propositions and Hypotheses

• Propositions
• Statements explaining the logical linkage among
certain concepts by asserting a universal connection
between concepts.
Example: Treating employees better will make them
more loyal employees.
• Hypothesis
• Formal statement of an unproven proposition that is
empirically testable.
Example: Giving employees one Friday off each month
will result in lower employee turnover.
 Empirical Testing

• Empirical Testing
• Examining a research hypothesis against reality using
data.
• Variables
• Anything that may assume different numerical values.
• The empirical assessment of a concept.
• Operationalizing
• The process of identifying the actual measurement
scales to asses the variables of interest.
Hypotheses Are the Empirical Counterparts of Propositions
An Example:
 Example:
A Basic Theory Explaining Voluntary Job Turnover
 Theory Building

• Deductive Reasoning
• The logical process of deriving a conclusion about a
specific instance based on a known general premise or
something known to be true.
• Inductive Reasoning
• The logical process of establishing a general proposition
on the basis of observation of particular facts.
 The Scientific Method
• Scientific Method • Suggested steps:
• A set of prescribed 1. Assess relevant existing
procedures for establishing knowledge of phenomenon
and connecting theoretical 2. Formulate concepts and
statements about events, for propositions
analyzing empirical evidence, 3. State hypotheses
and for predicting events yet
unknown. 4. Design research to test the
hypotheses
• Techniques or procedures
used to analyze empirical 5. Acquire empirical data
evidence in an attempt to 6. Analyze and evaluate data
confirm or disprove prior 7. Propose an explanation of
conceptions. the phenomenon and state
new problems raised by the
research
 Chapter One

Introducing Business Research

 Learning Objectives
At the end of this chapter the student should be able to:

• Outline and detail the research process and explain the utility of
the four frameworks approach to the research process;

• Outline and briefly explain each of the stages in the research

process;

• Explain the value of research in terms of business success;

• Formulate a researchable problem.

 Introduction

One of the main aims of this chapter is to introduce you to

the research process.

• This is the process by which research is carried out.

(The model on the next slide details this process.)

• The steps in the process of undertaking research are

generally the same in every research project.

• However, the approaches taken to each

step in the process vary a great deal
from research project to research project.
Model of the Research Process
Business Research Defined
Business research is the application of social science
research methods in the process of examining
business phenomenon.

The term ‘research’ connotes patient study and

scientific investigation.

The researcher carefully examines data to discover all

that is known on the topic.
 The Four Frameworks Approach
The four frameworks approach is an approach to carrying out
research whereby the researcher uses four frameworks,

• the conceptual framework,

• the theoretical framework,
• the methodological framework
• and the analytical framework,

to develop the research project.

* The first framework, the conceptual framework, shapes, supports

and directs the other three frameworks.
Four Frameworks
 The Four Frameworks Approach to the
Research Project

First Framework: The conceptual framework is contained in the research

statement, question or hypothesis developed by the researcher for the
research project.

Second Framework: The theoretical framework is contained in the literature

review.

Third Framework: The methodological framework details how the research

was conducted. It is contained in the methodology section of the research
report or thesis.

Fourth Framework: The analytical framework is the structure of the detailed

analysis of the data presented in the report or thesis.
 The Conceptual Framework
(contained in the research statement/question)

Once you have decided on your topic for your research project it is a good
discipline to be able to express this idea in one sentence. This one
sentence then becomes the conceptual framework for the research
project.

An example of a research statement:

‘This research project is a case study designed to facilitate the creation of a new
induction programme for new employees of Mannings Manufacturing Ltd.’

You may have noticed that the research statement above contains a
statement of the proposed research methodology.
 Continued…

This defining of the research project in one sentence helps you,

the researcher, to exclude all of the concepts which are not
relevant to the research, and it facilitates you in considering
and exploring every concept which is relevant to the research.

All of the key concepts in the research project should be

included in this sentence.
 The Theoretical Framework

All academic researchers undertake a review of the

literature in the field of their study.

They do this in order to assess the state of knowledge in the

field, and to identify any gaps in knowledge in the field.

They also do this in order to develop their own expertise in

the area or field of their research.

In writing a review of the literature, the researcher constructs

a theoretical framework for the research they are carrying
out.
 Continued…

The literature review chapter of the thesis (or section of the

research report) contains the theoretical framework for the
project.

The key concepts in the conceptual framework give the

researcher guidance and direction in terms of the reading
they need to undertake and the areas of the body of
knowledge with which they need to engage, in order to
develop the literature review, or theoretical framework, for
their research project.
 The Methodological Framework

• The methodological framework is contained in the methodology

section of the thesis or report, and it contains all of the detail on how
the research was conducted.

• Research methodology is the way in which the research was

conducted.

• There are many different methodologies used in conducting research,

among them case study, survey, experimental design, meta analysis,
attitude research, action research, ethnography, feminist research,
grounded theory, semiotics, image-based research, phenomenology
and so on. Each of these methodologies has particular application
(particular use) within research.

• The research methodology chosen for the research provides the

philosophical framework for the research project.
 Continued...

• When undertaking a research project, each researcher selects a

methodology for their research. This selection is not made arbitrarily.

• The methodology selected should be the appropriate methodology for

the research project.

• Decisions around methodology are made with reference to the aim and
objectives of the research project, with reference to the population of the
research and the sample of the population, with reference to the kinds of
data needed for the research project and with reference to how best to
gather that data.
 The Analytical Framework

• The final framework is the analytical framework.

• This framework contains a synopsis of the analysis carried

out for the research. It contains the aspects of data analysis
that are to be presented in the written account of the
research project.

• The researcher is guided in the work of carrying out data

analysis and presenting data analysis for the research
project by the conceptual framework and the theoretical
framework constructed for the research project.
 Keeping a research diary

• It is important to begin from the start of the research project to record

your thoughts, ideas, inspirations, references and resources in your
research diary.

• This written, often scribbled, record of your thoughts and decisions will be
invaluable to you when you are writing the formal written account of the
research, the research report or thesis.

• You will be able to refer back to the research diary for inspiration and
ideas for the writing and this will save you a lot of time in the writing
process, as well as radically improving the formal written account
of the research.
 Continued...

• The research diary is a notebook which you have designated your

research diary and set aside for use solely as your research diary.

• Any hardback notebook will do for the research diary.

• It needs to be a hardback notebook because it will be used a lot

throughout the research project and you don’t want it to fall apart and you
certainly don’t want to lose any pages from it.
 Data Gathering Methods
• Along with methodology the researcher is concerned with methods, data
collection methods.

• These are the means by which data for the research project are gathered
by the researcher.

• Data is evidence; it is presented as evidence in the research project in

order to establish the argument, the case, or the hypothesis of the
research.

• We are all very familiar with some data gathering techniques, or data
collection methods. We have all filled in questionnaires, and some of us
have participated in interviews and in focus groups. Each of these is a
data collection method.

• Every data collection method is designed to focus on, observe and record
those observations, of some phenomenon.
 Some Problems Business Students Typically Encounter when
Approaching Research Methods for the First Time

• It is important to be able to distinguish between an area of interest, and

a topic for a research project.

• Once you have decided on your area, you need an idea for a topic
within that area which you can develop into your research project. A
common mistake that many beginning researchers make is to attempt
to develop their research idea into their research project.

• They define their research project too broadly. Instead they should
develop their research project within the area of their research idea.
 Continued...

• So you see, while your area of interest can be and probably will be quite
broad, your research project will be very very focused, and quite small or
very small in relation to the broad area.

• It is essential that your research project be:

• very focused and quite small because it must be completed within
the time allowed for the research;
• it must be completed within the word count allowed for the project;
• it must be ‘do-able’ or ‘researchable’ within the scope of the
resources available to you for the research;
• it must be to the standard required by your programme of study;
• it must ‘fit’ with the requirements of your degree programme.
 How to Formulate a Researchable Project
The Test of Research-ability

• In order to assess whether or not you could undertake and complete your research
project, it is a good idea to apply ‘the test of research-ability’. In this simple test
you examine whether or not you have the resources to complete the research
project.

• The time needed to conduct the research: to design the project, carry out the field
work, analyse the data, write up your findings, draw conclusions and make
recommendations;

• The money needed to conduct the research. In general with small-scale research
projects if any money is needed it is the amount of money required for the
fieldwork, for example, for posting questionnaires, for travelling to interviews and
for organising focus groups;

• Access to data. Many students underestimate the difficulties that researchers can
encounter in accessing data, in attempting to access data, in securing access to
data, and in maintaining access to data over the time period required to complete
the fieldwork.
 Writing up the Research:
the thesis / the report

• The research process follows a pattern, and that pattern doesn’t vary. The
model of the research process, detailed at the start of Chapter One, illustrates
this pattern.
• The structure of the research project too follows a pattern or a convention, and
that pattern or convention doesn’t change. The steps are sequential, as
indicated in the model of the research process.
• Research projects are very organic, they’re living and growing entities and they
change all the time. Generally the changes happen in tiny shifts in emphasis,
rather than giant changes or u-turns. In any case, any and all changes affect
the entire project, and so the researcher is constantly engaged in a process of
editing the thesis or report as it develops, in order to ensure that all the
changes made are properly incorporated into the thesis and all of the changes
made ‘fit’ properly into the thesis.
• The thesis is the written record of the research project. It is a synopsis of all of
the work carried out. As the word count is always quite constrained, it is not
possible for this written record to be anything more than a synopsis
of all of the work that went into the research project.
 A Brief Introduction to Research Ethics

• The ethical researcher is informed. S/he must be organised and

systematic.
• S/he is sensitive to the people involved in the investigation and engages
with them, and with the entire research process, in an ethical manner.
• The quality of every research project is dependent upon the integrity of
the researcher.
• The researcher in reporting the research details what s/he set out to do,
how s/he did it, what s/he found, and what that means. Obviously, the
account of the research must be accurate and honest. It must give
enough detail for to allow the reader to evaluate the work.
• The literature review must be comprehensive, complete and up-to-date.
• The data must be properly gathered, properly managed, and analysed
appropriately.
 Research Ethics continued...

• The conclusions drawn from the research must be drawn from the
findings of the research, and these findings must emerge from the data
gathered.

• Every researcher has responsibilities to a number of constituencies.

These constituencies include the institution within which and/or under
whose auspices the research is being carried out; and all individuals,
groups, institutions and organisations participating in the research.

• The researcher has a duty of care towards all participants, and must,
above all, do no harm.

• All participation in your research should be on an informed, voluntary

basis.
 Chapter Six

The Literature Review

 LEARNING OBJECTIVES:

• Identify and source appropriate literature.

• Evaluate the quality of literature sourced.
• Evaluate the utility for the research project of the
literature sourced.
• Review literature.
• Create a theoretical framework.
• Write a literature review.
 Introduction

• Literature in the context of social science research is

research that has already been carried out and
published.

• Such research is published in journal articles, in books,

in theses, in government reports, in the reports of
NGO’s, in conference reports, online and in the media.

• The literature on a field or area of research constitutes

the body of knowledge in that field or area of research; it
contains the theory in that field.
 The researcher undertakes a review of literature:

• to develop their own expertise, their own scholarship, on

the topic or phenomenon;

• to establish what is known and what is not known in the

field;

• to highlight gaps in the knowledge base in the area or on

the topic, the researcher may decide to use their
research project to try to fill in one or more of those
gaps;

• to be able to create a theoretical framework for the

research project, the theoretical framework is contained
in the literature review. It is the content of the literature
review.
 Literature and the Model of the Research
Process

• In the model of the research process, (see next slide), the literature
review is the fourth stage in the research process. In fact, the
process of reviewing the literature begins as soon as the researcher
has decided to undertake a research project.

• As soon as the researcher decides on an area of research, or on a

particular topic within an area of research, the researcher begins to
read literature around that topic or that broad area.

• Reading for the research project begins as soon as the researcher

decides to undertake a research project, and the reading continues
all the way through the research project.
Model of the Research Process
 Literature in Research
• The word ‘literature’ in social science research, refers to research
that has already been carried out and published.

• As we have seen above, such literature is published in journal

articles, in books, in theses, in government reports, in the reports of
NGO’s, in conference reports, online and in the media.

• Media reports of research projects tend to be very short. This is

because in the media there are usually substantial restrictions in
terms of space. Given these restrictions, generally what is reported
in the media is a brief synopsis without any reference to theory, or a
theoretical context.
 Cont.
• The distinction between research which is presented within its theoretical
context and research which is not is, in scientific terms, substantial.

• Research is about the creation of knowledge. Research projects are

designed to make a contribution to some body of knowledge.
• As research is designed to contribute to knowledge, the rules, processes
and procedures of research are rigorous. For a research project to be
established as valid research, it must meet rigorous scientific standards.
When a research project does meet these standards, it is accepted as a
valid contribution to knowledge. Research which has been established as
valid research is research that has been subjected to peer-review.
• Such research is published primarily in journal articles and in books. While it
can be useful and interesting to source material from other sources, such as
the media, it is primarily these peer-reviewed sources that are used in
compiling a literature review for a research project.
 The Conceptual Framework as a Guide to the
Review of the Literature

• When the researcher commences the search for

literature, s/he uses the key concepts in the
conceptual framework.

• These key concepts are used to provide key

words for key word searches
in databases and online.
 Cont.
• The key concepts, key words and key ideas provide
focus and direction for the theoretical framework.

• For example, if the word “training” appears in the

conceptual framework for the project, the word “training”
will be a major feature of the theoretical framework.

• If the word “development” appears in the conceptual

framework, it will be a major feature of the theoretical
framework.

• If the word “marketing” or the concept “brand

recognition” appear or feature in the conceptual
framework, they will be major elements in the theoretical
framework.
 Search Strategy
• In order to generate useful and thorough key word
searches, the researcher develops a search strategy.

• The search strategy can be outlined in the research

diary.

• In the diary the researcher devises and decides on key

word searches.

• A key objective of the search is that the researcher

identifies, sources and develops an understanding of all
of the literature relevant to their study.
 Writing the Literature Review

• The first thing to do in terms of writing the

literature review is to develop a plan for its
structure.

• The structure of the literature review is comprised

of a good introduction and a good summary; the
use of sub-sections with good sub-headings; the
use of proper paragraphs and proper sentences;
the elimination of spelling, syntax, grammatical
and punctuation errors.
 Structure of the Literature Review

• To begin with there is the introduction, this is an

introduction to the chapter, nothing else, nothing
more

• The introduction is followed by a number of sub-

sections. There might be two, three, four or five
sub-sections.

• The chapter ends with a summary. The summary

is a summary of the chapter, nothing else, nothing
more.
 Reading Literature: Some Key Points
• In reading literature the researcher engages in an evaluation of the literature.

• The literature review is undertaken to provide a theoretical framework for the

research project.

• The researcher is trying to establish the value of the literature in relation to

their own research.

• Where was the literature sourced? Is this a good source?

• Check the date of publication. Is the literature from seminal sources? Is the
literature up-to-date?

• Who authored the literature? Do they have other publications?

What are their qualifications?
• Take a critical perspective. Use the model of the research process to examine
each aspect of the published work.
Questions for the Introduction to the Research

• Critically examine the research

question/statement, the research hypothesis.

• Does it seem useful and appropriate?

• Are the aim and objectives of the research clearly

outlined?

• Do they seem reasonable and appropriate?

• Do the aim and objectives “fit” with the research

statement/question?
 Questions for the Literature Review

• Critically examine the literature review, the theoretical

framework.

• Is it comprehensive?

• Does it include seminal authors / work?

• Is it up-to-date?

• Does it adequately support the research project as it is

detailed in the research statement/question, in the
hypothesis?
 Questions for the Research Methodology
• Examine the methodology? Is it appropriate? Has enough detail been
given on the methodology to allow for a care critique of the research?

• Is the population of the research detailed?

• Was a sample used? If so, is the sampling method detailed?

• Are the data collection methods outlined?

• How well did the data collection methods serve the research?

• Do the data collection methods “fit” with the aim of the research?
• Is there a copy of the data collection method(s) in appendices? (e.g.
questionnaire / interview schedule)
 Questions for Data Analysis

• How were the data analysed?

• Was the means of analysis adequate and

appropriate?
 Questions for the Findings of the Research

• Are the findings from the data clearly drawn from the
data? Is it clear that the findings did emerge from the
data?

• Are the findings reasonable, useful, interesting and

insightful?

• Are the findings theorised? Did the author(s) knit the

findings from the research back into the body of
knowledge? Did the author(s) connect the findings with
the theory laid out in the literature review, in the
theoretical framework?
Questions for the Conclusions Drawn from the
Research

• Are there conclusions? Are they reasonable and

meaningful?

• Do the conclusions emerge clearly from the

findings?

• Do they evidence a deep level of reflection on the

part of the researcher?

• Are they useful, interesting and insightful?

 Questions for the Recommendations Made at
the End of the Study

• Are there recommendations?

• Are the recommendations clear and simple?

• Do the recommendations make sense?

• Are the recommendations achievable, are they do-able?

• Are there recommendations for further research?

 Questions for an Overall Critical Appraisal of
the Study

• Overall, is the report of the research well written?

• Is the research well-presented?

• Has the research been carried out to a high standard?

• Does the research make a contribution to knowledge?

• Is it a valid contribution to knowledge?

• Is it a valuable contribution to knowledge?

 Referencing the Work

• Referencing is critically important.

• Much of the work of the literature review is in referencing all of the

literature drawn on in writing the review.

• It is essential the literature review be fully and properly referenced.

• Reference as much as possible in the literature review.

• Include all of the references.

• Remember to lead with your own voice in writing the literature review.
The literature review that you write is your take on the literature that
you have read, as it relates to your research project.
 Common problems

• Students review irrelevant literature.

• Students present unnecessary detail in their review (the

case study at the end of this chapter presents an
example of a poorly written literature review and an
example of a better literature review).

• Students fail, in writing their literature review, to present

and then develop a main argument in the review.
 ++
NA

2023 North America

End-of-Year
Forecast
A Report From GroupM, WPP’s Media Investment Group

December 2023
++
DECEMBER 2023 • THIS YEAR NEXT YEAR I NA END-OF-YEAR FORECAST I INTRODUCTION

North
America
Introduction

++
North America advertising revenue is expected to grow 5.6% in
2023, an upgrade from our June forecast of 5.1%. However, we now
predict a steeper deceleration in 2024 to 4.2% growth, or 7.8% if we
include the $16.0 billion of political revenue expected for the year.

A handful of common themes are defining the Entertainment studios recently went through a
advertising market as we head into 2024. Globally, similar shift, promoting their own streaming
71.5% of ad revenue will go to “pure play” digital services and selling directly to audiences rather than
media owners (including retail media but excluding through cable distributors. Media companies like
digital extensions such as CTV and DOOH). Disney, Comcast and Warner Bros. Discovery are
still aggressively growing subscribers on their
As digitalization transforms media and disrupts
streaming platforms—a model that holds extra
traditional business models around the world, the
potential for Comcast and Disney, which can
relationship between advertisers and their customers
leverage those direct relationships to drive their
is undergoing massive change. This is true in North
theme park businesses, which tend to be more
America as well, where we see more and more
profitable.
advertisers, from automotive companies to content
studios, spending their marketing dollars on direct-to- Another common theme is the shift toward live
consumer models. sports as a shared experience that can draw eyeballs.
This shift has long been clear in linear TV, where
Automotive advertisers may be embarking on one of
sports content accounted for 23.5% of U.S. national
the most significant transformations facing marketers
viewing hours among adults 18-49 through
of any industry. In the U.S.—where we estimate on October 2023 versus 14.1% during the same period
average 30-50% of auto manufacturer advertising
of 2018. But it is also becoming increasingly
revenue sits—the dealership model is likely to be
common among streaming companies, including
replaced by a direct-sales model in which dealerships
Amazon, Apple TV and Google/YouTube, which are
act as a de facto agency, handling test drives and diving into live sports as a means to drive
service contracts, while the customer relationship,
subscriptions and reduce churn.
sale and price are ultimately owned by the original
equipment manufacturer (OEM). This is one step Lastly, the introduction of generative AI is changing
closer to Tesla’s “showrooms,” an owned and operated how businesses across industries are approaching
model now being recreated in part by agency models operations. The region’s largest retailers, publishers
at other electric vehicle manufacturers. and technology companies are deploying AI for
everything from creative ideation to transportation
logistics.

2
 DECEMBER 2023 • THIS YEAR NEXT YEAR I NA END-OF-YEAR FORECAST I ECONOMIC BACKDROP

Economic backdrop
For the purposes of this report, and all TYNY
forecasts, our North America segment consists of
just two markets: the United States and Canada.
As the largest global market, the U.S. will dominate
regional totals in all cases. However, Canada does
punch a little above its weight, ranking ninth
globally in total advertising revenue, despite
ranking 10th in GDP and 37th in population.
Both the U.S. and Canada have waged a battle against inflation over the last two years. Although neither country has yet
returned to a 2% target rate, the 3.2% and 3.1% annual change figures for October 2023 are notably closer, and ahead of
other OECD markets such as the U.K. (4.6%) or Germany (3.8%) (all figures are inclusive of housing and energy).1

U.S. & CANADIAN INFLATION

Source: ?

1. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, StatsCan, ONS, Destatis 3

DECEMBER 2023 • THIS YEAR NEXT YEAR I NA END-OF-YEAR FORECAST I ECONOMIC BACKDROP

The U.S. has weathered rapid interest rate increases Another metric we monitor closely is the growth of new
meant to cool the economy and bring down inflation business applications. Because businesses are ultimately
relatively well and is forecast to grow real GDP by 2.1% the buyers of advertising, it only makes sense to track
in 2023, decelerating to 1.5% in 2024. Canada should the rates at which new companies are added to the
also avoid a recession, with real GDP growth forecasts of economy and the trends regarding advertising expense
1.3% in 2023 and 1.6% in 2024, according to the IMF. that set new businesses apart from those they replace.
However, as we discuss in additional detail later in this New business applications remain elevated in the U.S.,
document, there are some metrics to watch that could and despite consumer inflation weariness and high
indicate whether consumers will continue to spend on borrowing costs, applications in October 2023 remained
goods and services (thus prompting companies to invest virtually unchanged from September on a seasonally
in advertising to reach them). The first of these watch- adjusted basis, per the U.S. Census Bureau.
outs is the household savings rate. American households
The rate of new business growth, taken together with
haven’t typically been as conservative in their savings as
German households, for example, but the September a strong labor market in the U.S., where the
unemployment figure for October 2023 remains near
2023 U.S. household savings rate (measured as personal
record lows at 3.9%, point to the possibility of avoiding a
savings as a percentage of disposable income) sat at just
deep recession in the region. In Canada, unemployment
3.4%, down from a high of 32.0% in April of 2020 and
has ticked up since April, although October’s 5.7% rate
significantly below the 2018-2019 average of 6.9%. This
is in line with the average for 2018-2019. That said,
suggests that many households are feeling the pinch of
interest rates kept too high for too long could succeed
higher prices (yet frequently still pursuing long-awaited
at slowing the economy to such a rate that we do see
travel plans or other in-person activities). Canada’s
profound impacts to business investment, employment
household savings rate for the second quarter of 2023
and consumer spending.
stood at just 1.0%, similarly down from 23.6% in Q2 of
2020, but in line with the 1.3% average for 2018-2019.
Lower savings rates may give Canadians less of a buffer
in adapting to rising mortgage and auto loan costs, as
interest rates are set to stay higher for longer in the U.S.
and potentially Canada as well. This is particularly worth
tracking as household debt ticks up in both countries.

U.S. BUSINESS FORMATION (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED)

Source: U.S Census Bureau

4
DECEMBER 2023 • THIS YEAR NEXT YEAR I NA END-OF-YEAR FORECAST I MEDIA TRENDS

Media trends
All figures are excluding U.S. political advertising unless otherwise noted.
Channels include digital extensions (for example DOOH with OOH).

NORTH AMERICA MEDIA CHANNEL SPLIT FORECAST

Source: GroupM

5
DECEMBER 2023 • THIS YEAR NEXT YEAR I NA END-OF-YEAR FORECAST I MEDIA TRENDS

Digital
North American digital revenue is forecast to
increase 10.9% in 2023 before decelerating to 7.6%
in 2024. The U.S. and Canada are beneficiaries of
significant inbound advertising from China-based
retail and gaming advertisers spending on Meta,
Amazon, Pinterest and other digital platforms.

TV
North America, despite representing just two
markets, remains the largest region for TV ad
revenue. TV advertising, including CTV, is expected
to decline 5.0% in 2023, with the gains in CTV not

++
fully offsetting declines in linear television. Linear TV
will fall 8.5% in 2023, and by 2025, linear TV will fall
below $46.7 billion, the lowest level since 2001. CTV
advertising will increase 14.9% in North America in
2024, accelerating from 9.4% in 2023.

Audio OOH
Canada is the second largest audio market behind the North American OOH (excluding cinema) is
U.S. globally (audio represents just 0.4% of Chinese forecast to grow 3.2% in 2023 and 3.0% in 2024.
ad revenue), with more than $1.0 billion in ad This is significantly slower than in any other region,
revenue expected in 2024. We forecast a relatively but that's partly because the U.S. was one of the
steep decline of 6.3% in 2023 before the channel first large markets to recover OOH revenue after
settles into more moderate declines through 2028 the pandemic (surpassing 2019’s total in 2022).
(-1.8% 5-year CAGR). Canada is expected to recover fully only in 2024
(when we expect global OOH revenue to surpass
the 2019 total).

Canada is the
Newspaper & Magazine
second-largest Print ad revenue in North America will fall below
$20.0 billion in 2023, declining 6.1% compared to
global audio market, 2022. Newspaper revenue will drop 3.6% in 2023
and 3.2% in 2024, including digital extensions.
with more than Newspaper's share of NA ad revenue will be on par

$1.0BN
with magazines at 2.6% and 2.7%, respectively. Both
channels are digitizing, although newspapers are
doing so more rapidly, with digital extensions
representing more than two-thirds of total
newspaper revenue in 2023, compared to 37.8% for

in ad revenue magazines. Digital news is expected to account

for 93.4% of the total by 2028.

expected in 2024.
6
 DECEMBER 2023 • THIS YEAR NEXT YEAR I NA END-OF-YEAR FORECAST I UNITED STATES

United States
Economy
Against the backdrop of sputtering growth in China and parts of Europe, the U.S. has surprised many this year with its
resilience and is expected to post a 2.1% increase in real GDP in 2023 (or roughly 5% in nominal terms), according to
the IMF. Our forecast for U.S. advertising growth is slightly higher, at 5.7%, excluding the skewing effects of U.S.
political advertising. This is a slight upgrade from our June forecast of 5.1%, when we reiterated the belief that the U.S.
would avoid a recession in 2023. Heading into 2024, we expect a deceleration to 4.1% growth and ongoing mid-single
digit growth through 2028, roughly in line with, or a little above, nominal GDP growth. The U.S. is unlikely to see a
repeat of the 2015-2019 trend of growth well above and beyond GDP, primarily due to progress made in the transition
to digital advertising formats. We expect digital to represent 70.3% of total ad revenue in 2024, reducing the capacity
for double-digit growth. Interest rates are also likely to stay higher for longer, reducing the access to “cheap money” for
new businesses and business investments that have contributed to advertising growth over the past decade. Of course,
there are downside risks and upside opportunities to this forecast. In terms of the risks, the current dysfunction and
brinkmanship of the U.S. legislative branch looms large.

While a default on the U.S. debt was narrowly averted in early June and again in November, the House of
Representatives remains unpredictable after ousting former Speaker Kevin McCarthy and taking more than 20 days to
elect a replacement. A U.S. default would likely trigger a significant U.S. recession, as well as cause havoc within the
global financial system, chilling ad revenue growth even beyond the borders of the U.S.

Household & Student Loan Debt

A U.S. default remains relatively unlikely, but there Another category of debt, student loans, has gotten
are other signs of stress in the U.S. economy related significant media coverage as interest and payments
to the debt carried by individual Americans. In its restarted following a long hiatus. As with most of these
report on household debt and credit for the second debt categories, the effects of student loan debt are likely
quarter, the New York Federal Reserve Bank noted a to be unevenly distributed across socioeconomic strata.
“normalization” of credit card markets after a According to the Federal Reserve and Department of
pandemic pause. Household debt has ticked up by Education, 17.0% of those in the bottom two quintiles of
$16 billion, to $17.06 trillion. And while mortgage household income have education installment loans
balances remain mostly unchanged (with increases (representing 19% of outstanding debt), while 24.9% of
in mortgage costs offset by declines in home prices people in the top two quintiles have installment loans
and the number of new mortgages), there are early (representing nearly 60% of all outstanding debt). These
signs of the growing impact from ongoing consumer higher income borrowers are more likely to have
price inflation and, more importantly, higher professional degrees and, in all likelihood, be better
interest rates. Auto loan and credit card balances equipped to handle the reinstatement of loan payments.
saw increases in the second quarter, rising $20 Only 5% of borrowers with household incomes above
billion and $45 billion, respectively. Delinquencies $100,000 were behind on payments as of the 2022
on credit cards also increased, albeit to levels survey, versus 25% of those with incomes below
consistent with the period pre-pandemic. $25,000. Given this distribution of student loan debt, we
expect repayments to weigh heavily on some households,
but not create much of an impact on the wider
advertising industry.

Source: New York Fed, GroupM 7

 DECEMBER 2023 • THIS YEAR NEXT YEAR I NA END-OF-YEAR FORECAST I UNITED STATES

U.S. HOUSEHOLD DEBT MAKE-UP

++ Employment
American consumers’ ability to make future loan payments will

People in
likely depend on the employment outlook for the U.S. and whether
the Fed’s existing rate hikes are enough to bring down inflation
without triggering a recession and significant job losses. As of this
the top two writing, the unemployment rate stood at 3.9% nationwide, with
some variation from state to state. Personal income growth (as of

income the second quarter) ranged between -2.7% in Maine and 6.1% in the
District of Columbia. The median for all states was 4.1%, slightly

quintiles
ahead of the most recent August PCE core inflation rate of 3.9%
(this figure excludes volatile food and energy prices).

have loans UNEMPLOYMENT & PERSONAL

INCOME GROWTH BY STATE
representing W age Grow th

nearly

60 %
of all
outstanding
debt.
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bureau of Economic Analysis, GroupM 8
DECEMBER 2023 • THIS YEAR NEXT YEAR I NA END-OF-YEAR FORECAST I UNITED STATES

Retail Sales
Inflation pressures do appear to be impacting retail sales There is positive news for electronics and technology
in the U.S. However, this may be short lived as we head sales coming out of the recent Black Friday, with Adobe
into the holiday season, particularly with consumer Analytics reporting growth for the category
sentiment sitting 5.2% higher than in October of 2022, amid the $9.8 billion in online sales the day after
according to a University of Michigan survey. The more Thanksgiving.
forward-looking consumer expectations index was 60.7 in
Despite the recent positive holiday shopping trends, we
October, down significantly from September’s 66.0, but
have noted a slight leveling off of e-commerce
still 8.0% higher than October of 2022. Consumer
penetration in the U.S. As with most markets for which
sentiment has not been found to have a significant
we track e-commerce sales, the U.S. e-commerce
correlation to advertising growth, but it is another useful
penetration (for retail sales excluding food services)
directional signal of the relative strength of consumer
rose with Covid-19 lockdowns and then normalized once
expenditure, which accounted for 68.1% of U.S. GDP in
people returned to in-person shopping. However, we had
the second quarter of 2023.
assumed that e-commerce as a percentage of total sales
Retail sales have remained reasonably robust throughout would continue to grow at a rate similar to that seen pre-
the pandemic recovery and even during the Fed’s recent pandemic—that is, low teens year-over-year. The latest
period of interest rate hikes. However, growth has data from the U.S. Census Bureau suggests otherwise,
decelerated noticeably in 2023, falling below PCE inflation with 2022 e-commerce penetration growth revised to
in each month from May to August 2023. Some sectors 8.5%, and growth for the first half of 2023 at 7.7%. E-
have held up better than others, with the largest CPG commerce penetration for the first half of 2023 stood at
companies continuing to notch high single-digit or 14.9%, just one-tenth of a percentage point higher than
double-digit growth in their third quarter earnings the 2022 annual figure. As a result, we have trimmed our
results. For the nine months through September 2023, expectations for future e-commerce penetration within
the largest declines as compared to the same period in the U.S., reaching 17.5% by 2028, versus our prior
2022 are for furniture and home furnishing stores and forecast of 20.8%.
gasoline stations (largely driven by lower
prices), according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Consumer
expenditure
accounted for
68.1 %
of U.S. GDP in the
second quarter
of 2023.
9
DECEMBER 2023 • THIS YEAR NEXT YEAR I NA END-OF-YEAR FORECAST I UNITED STATES

TV
Total TV in the U.S. will decline 5.2% in 2023, according to our forecast, followed by a 5.1% decline in 2024. These
declines are driven by linear TV advertising revenue, which is set to fall 8.6% in 2023 and 10.7% in 2024 (ex-political).
Growth in CTV (which, as a reminder, excludes YouTube) will not be sufficient to offset these declines, despite
forecasted growth of 8.9% and 14.4% for 2023 and 2024, respectively. TV advertising revenue in the U.S. has been
shifting from cable and satellite pay TV providers, and to some extent broadcasters, toward pure play digital players
and technology providers including Apple, Amazon, Samsung, Roku and YouTube. Netflix revenue remains a very small
share of the CTV total. We estimate that Hulu ad revenue, which Disney does not disclose, will finish the year flat to
slightly down. However, the now formalized plan to combine Disney+ and Hulu in a single offering (with Comcast
selling its Hulu stake to Disney) is almost sure to help Disney grow digital revenue with a more cohesive strategy and
investment.

In our December 2022 TYNY forecast, we predicted that pay TV households

50%
would fall below 50% in the US by 2025. We may now reach that point before
the end of 2024. Carriage disputes between cable distributors and media
owners (most notably Charter and Disney) have almost certainly further
accelerated the shift to virtual MVPDs, or away from aggregators all together.
of 2024 est.
If sports continue to shift to streaming services (both pure play, such as households
Amazon Prime Video and YouTube, and legacy, such as Max and Peacock), this
trend could accelerate still further. NBA rights discussions are widely reported
to have already started (the current deal runs through the 2024-2025 season).

U.S CORD CUTTING AND PENETRATION OF CABLE/VMVPDS

Source: GroupM, Company Filings

10
DECEMBER 2023 • THIS YEAR NEXT YEAR I NA END-OF-YEAR FORECAST I UNITED STATES

CTV
Streaming revenue isn’t yet significant enough to make up for the losses from linear TV, but the share of revenue from
streaming and direct-to-consumer (DTC) products has been steadily increasing. In the first quarter of 2021, linear
revenue for the largest media companies including Disney, Comcast, Warner Bros. Discovery, Paramount, Fox and
Netflix represented 65.5% of global TV revenue (including subscriptions, affiliate fees and advertising). In their last
reported earnings for the third quarter of 2023, linear TV represented just 53.8% of revenue.

While CTV viewing and ad revenue are certainly increasing, not all streaming time is ad-supported. The average weekly
hours that U.S. adults (18+) spend watching CTV will exceed the hours they spend watching live and time-shifted TV
by the start of 2026, according to a recent forecast by GroupM using Nielsen data. If we assume that, on average,
advertising occupies 12 minutes of every hour on live TV but only four minutes of every hour on CTV, we conclude that
U.S. adults saw an average of 4.9 hours of televised advertising a week in 2023.

That decreases to 4.3 hours (-13%) by 2027. However, that calculation does not consider the fact that a substantial
amount of time spent watching CTV is on subscription video-on-demand (SVOD) platforms.

SVOD viewing represented 54% of total streaming time, according to a recent weekly Gauge report from Nielsen.
But many SVOD platforms now have ad-supported tiers, so if we assume just 30% of all CTV time is ad-free both
today and in 2027, the decline in average ad hours jumps from 13% to 17%; if we assume half of all CTV hours are
ad-free, the decrease is 19%. There will be some audiences on some platforms who continue to pay higher
subscription fees to avoid ads, and that is likely to cause a decline in total TV advertising minutes over the next five
years. Of course, this analysis does not consider product placement or other non-traditional ad formats. Increases
to the duration of ad pods on CTV would also affect these projections.

If we assume just SHIFT TO STREAMING REVENUE TV

30%
of all CTV time is
ad-free both
today and in 2027,
the decline in
average ad hours
jumps from

13% to 17%.
Source: Source: Company Filings,
GroupM • Composite includes: Disney,
WBD, Comcast, Paramount, Fox, ITV, RTL,
Netflix (Streaming only)
11
DECEMBER 2023 • THIS YEAR NEXT YEAR I NA END-OF-YEAR FORECAST I UNITED STATES

Digital
Digital ad revenue—which, as a reminder, excludes the This signifies that at least $5.9 billion more in advertising
digital extensions of traditional media such as CTV and was targeted at U.S. consumers than was bought by
digital out-of-home (DOOH)—is forecast to grow 11.2% companies based in the U.S. (or Canada). Because we
in 2023 after ad sellers like Meta, Alphabet (Google), assume some advertising is bought in the U.S. or Canada
Amazon, Spotify, Pinterest, Microsoft and Snap all but targeted to other markets across LATAM, for example,
reported accelerating growth in the third quarter. A the true U.S.-inbound figure is likely even higher. Meta
significant driver of growth this year has also been the inbound advertising of $5.9 billion represents an increase
influx of advertising revenue from Chinese companies of 95.1% over the same period in 2022, when retail sales
(including retailers such as Temu and Shein and were also slower in China, but country-wide lockdowns
manufacturers selling products on marketplaces like impacted the manufacturing sector.
Amazon and Walmart). Pinterest and Meta specifically
In terms of Chinese advertisers on e-commerce
called out the contributions of Chinese advertisers in
marketplaces, the companies do not disclose inbound
their 2023 earnings calls, and there has almost certainly
advertising specifically. But we do have October 2023 data
been an increase in revenue from Temu and others on
from Marketplace Pulse that puts the share of American
Google properties as well. As we noted in the global
sellers on Amazon.com at just 48% as of October 2023, its
report, this trend was likely amplified by sluggish retail
lowest level ever. Marketplace Pulse asserts that most
sales in the Chinese domestic market.
Chinese sellers use Fulfilled By Amazon (FBA), which
One way to help quantify this inbound advertising is to makes their products Prime-eligible. And while we don’t
analyze financial filings from companies like Meta and know how much these sellers are also spending on
Pinterest. Through the first nine months of 2023, the gap sponsored listings or other ad products, the uptick in
between Meta’s revenue as apportioned by user China-based sellers on both Amazon and Walmart has
geography and revenue as apportioned by customer likely contributed to U.S. digital growth in 2023.
billing address was $5.9 billion for the U.S. and Canada.

Inbound advertising of
++
$5.9BN
represents an increase of 95.1
%
over the same period in 2022, when
retail sales were also slower in China but
country-wide lockdowns impacted the
manufacturing sector.

12
DECEMBER 2023 • THIS YEAR NEXT YEAR I NA END-OF-YEAR FORECAST I UNITED STATES

Looking ahead
to 2024 and
beyond, we
expect digital Retail media
ad revenue Retail, which remains the fastest growing digital
channel in 2023, is expected to improve 9.3% over

to grow at a 2022. Growth in 2024 and subsequent years will

decelerate as retailers likely add some net-new non-

five-year
endemic advertisers to their rosters, and some share
shift takes place as smaller players challenge Amazon’s

% 7.1 .
current dominance. Walmart, which reported

CAGR of $2.7 billion in advertising revenue in 2022, is likely

to take in more than $3 billion worldwide in 2023,
which should earn it a position in our top 25 global
ad sellers list.

Within digital, search will grow the slowest, at a

CAGR of 4.1%, retail will grow 9.3% and “other” (a
category that includes social media and short-form Retail, which
remains the
video) will grow 8.5% on a compound basis.

As cited in the global report, regulation and

fastest
government scrutiny continues to impact the largest
sellers of digital advertising. A ruling against Google
in the FTC’s antitrust lawsuit is unlikely to lead to a
significant structural change for the company, and
to the extent Google can provide AI-enhanced growing major
ad revenue
search experiences on par or better than its
competitors in the space, it is likely to remain the
largest beneficiary of search advertising revenue. AI
was mentioned in earnings calls for Microsoft and
Alphabet 443 times in 2023 alone—not counting channel, is
expected to
investor conferences or other events.

There are other cases we are watching quite closely,

improve
notably Montana’s ban of TikTok and the suit
brought by multiple state attorneys general against

9.3 .
Meta alleging its products are addictive for minors.

%
This case looks to get around Section 230, which
protects social media companies from liability for
the content that third parties post on their sites, by
treating Meta’s apps as products and alleging
product safety lapses or negligence.
5YR CAGR 13
 DECEMBER 2023 • THIS YEAR NEXT YEAR I NA END-OF-YEAR FORECAST I UNITED STATES

GROUPM
Retail media’s core offering is high-intent first-party data and closed-loop measurement,
PERSPECTIVE ON
underpinned by speed and purchase intent. And while some partners are still in the process
RETAIL MEDIA
of fully realizing this promise, brands in the U.S. have voiced a collective call to arms for raising
the standards across the industry, as patience for disparate metrics, long timelines and a lack
of transparency wears on the budget owners responsible for piecing it all together and
proving growth. But measurement standards are only one way that brands are asking retailers
to help reduce complexity and justify investment. Providing the option for self-service buying
and reporting across a retailer’s media channels has become critical for relief on spend
minimums and ad waste through real-time optimizations. In the fourth quarter of 2023, both
Amazon and Walmart have made announcements around increased self-service buying
capabilities for CTV and display, respectively. At this point in the market’s maturity, brands
Lauren Lavin, want to see retailers make significant improvements to their ad product offering, rising to the
NA Commerce occasion by becoming media publishers that are worthy of the investment they are asking for.
Practice Lead,
This aspiration especially holds true as retail media networks continue to try to break out of
GroupM
their “retail search” label by extending their off-site offerings, such as leveraging their first-
party data on traditionally upper-funnel channels like CTV. Retailers are hopeful this will not
only unlock new funding sources with the brands they work with today but expand their reach
to non-endemic brands in exchange for bespoke data-rich audiences. Within just a year, retail
media networks have already doubled down on this channel, with multiple retailers signing

Store partnership agreements, including Walmart with NBCU and Kroger with Disney. Coming with
a richer-than-usual price tag, brands should be mindful of the use cases in which they leverage
traffic still this data. But they must also be ready to take advantage of new opportunities.

outweighs While live shopping adoption by consumers has lagged other markets, such as APAC, retailers
including Amazon and Walmart plan to meet consumers where they are with shoppable TV.
digital, and Viewers watching Amazon’s coverage of the Black Friday NFL match were able to buy products
from ads without navigating away from the game. Frictionless commerce experiences have
in-store proved powerful in driving sales in channels such as Instagram, where the traditional funnel
collapses and a consumer can go from awareness to conversion within seconds.
media Retail media networks have signed several partnerships this year as they battle to find
has the incremental, valuable inventory: Amazon and Pinterest, Instacart and The Trade Desk,
Walmart and TikTok, to name a few. The lines between these platforms will continue to blur,
potential until there comes a point when data is offered decoupled from inventory, as we saw with some

to influence
longer-tail U.S. retailers that launched within the Criteo Commerce Max platform this year.
Until then, and as platform partnerships expand, the need for coordination between brand

millions of and retail media teams becomes more important than ever.

consumers
Perhaps the most unchartered retail inventory to date is within the brand's own brick and
mortar footprint. Because store traffic still greatly outweighs digital at all major U.S. omni-

as they channel retailers, in-store media has the potential to influence many consumers as they shop.
Walmart’s audience of monthly unique in-store consumers with purchase intent is greater
shop. than the viewing audience of the Super Bowl. There are, however, barriers to the digitization
of a fleet of stores, including hardware cost, consumer experience testing and the need for both
personalization and closed-loop measurement. Instacart is currently testing smart shopping
carts (Caper Carts) that connect to your Instacart app, including mapping your shopping list
to the store, serving you personalized ads and then checking you out all within the cart.

Even with the recent rapid growth, adoption and investment in retail media, we are still early
in the evolutionary shift transforming the industry. Brands that carefully leverage these
capabilities and opportunities to interact with consumers more effectively than their peers
will be well positioned to deliver meaningful growth.
14
DECEMBER 2023 • THIS YEAR NEXT YEAR I NA END-OF-YEAR FORECAST I UNITED STATES

Audio Print
Total audio revenue in the U.S. is expected to decline (Newspapers & Magazines)
6.6% in 2023 and a further 1.2% in 2024. Streaming
audio revenue will grow 12.0% each year but is unlikely to Newspapers have been declining faster than magazines
be evenly distributed amongst the players, with Spotify in eight of the last 10 years. However, the trend flipped
likely recording growth in the high teens each of the last in 2021, with newspapers (including digital extensions)
two quarters versus Pandora’s 1.0% growth over the same growing 6.1% amid the post-pandemic boom, compared
period. Digital revenue for Audacy, Cumulus and iHeart to 5.8% growth for magazines. While both media
has also been essentially flat through the first nine returned to year-on-year declines in 2022, magazine
months of the year. declines are now forecast to outpace newspapers
through 2025. None of these figures include political ad
As with OOH, national advertiser trends have been cited revenue, but it’s likely that news outlets will benefit over
as softer versus local advertisers—a trend that is likely to the next several years from increased focus on current
continue into next year with the influx of political ad events, including the elections, the economy and
spending and tighter inventory. geopolitical tensions. Newspapers are expected to
Total audio will fall to 3.8% of U.S. advertising revenue in decline 3.2% in 2023 and 3.0% in 2024, representing
just 2.3% of total ad revenue that year.
2024 from 4.0% in 2023.
Luxury advertisers remain critical to magazine
advertising, but constancy from this sector has not
OOH prevented cost-cutting measures such as the cessation
OOH revenue, including DOOH, is forecast to grow 2.8% of print versions for some titles or the reduction in
in 2023 to $8.0 billion, a sharp deceleration from 14.3% monthly issues (combining January and February, for
growth in 2022. Growth in 2024 is predicted to decelerate instance). Some magazine publishers, undoubtedly
further to 2.5% before picking up to mid-single digit looking at the success of video platforms such as
growth in 2025-2028. Local advertisers including autos YouTube, pushed heavily into digital video content in
and services were sources of strength this year, helping to recent years. However, Condé Nast, the publisher of
offset weakness from national advertisers (which, as an Vogue, recently announced the closure of its digital
example, made up 32.7% of Clear Channel Outdoor’s third video studio, including the layoffs of 270 employees,
quarter U.S. revenue compared to 37.8% in the same according to the New York Times. Executives noted
period last year). a shift to less lucrative short-form video and the
unpredictability of recommendation algorithms on
OOH in 2023 benefitted from the ongoing resurgence of platforms like TikTok. Moving forward, we are likely
travel and airport advertising. U.S. air travel was up 12.7% to see strategies focused on e-commerce and even
from January 1 through November 11, 2023, over the events as publishing brands look to capitalize on their
same period in 2022, according to Transportation role as curators, especially in the world of beauty and
Administration Security data. The figure is even an fashion. We predict magazine ad revenue will fall
increase over 2019 levels, albeit by just 1.2%. As travel 8.5% in 2023 and 5.4% in 2024, when share of total
patterns normalize (and with higher interest rates ad revenue will drop to 2.4%.
potentially weighing on large purchases such as vacations)
we see this segment of growth being more difficult to
sustain in the near term.

Roadside and specific metro areas, the San Francisco bay

Total print
area in particular, are weighing on growth in 2023 and
2024. Premium and digital formats, however, are driving
advertising
growth, with DOOH revenue expected to increase 9.0% in
in 2024 will equal

$17.6
2024 representing more than 40% of the OOH total.

BN 15
DECEMBER 2023 • THIS YEAR NEXT YEAR I NA END-OF-YEAR FORECAST I UNITED STATES

Cinema
Cinema in 2023 experienced highs and lows as the channel continued its slow recovery from the pandemic. Box office
hits The Super Mario Bros. Movie, Barbie and Oppenheimer provided bright spots, especially related to new sources and
categories of IP as interest in superhero franchises appears to wane.

The back half of the year was impacted by the Writers Guild of America (WGA) and Screen Actors Guild-
American Federation of Television and Radio Artists (SAG-AFTRA) strikes, with the release of Dune: Part Two, for
example, being pushed into 2024. Despite the resolution of these strikes before year’s end and several franchise
installments slated for 2024 and 2025, we do not expect cinema advertising revenue to recover to 2019 levels. Expected
revenue in 2024 of $485 million remains 40.1% lower than the $810 million recorded in 2019.

Political
We estimate that political ad revenue in 2024 will reach $16.0 billion, or $17.1 billion including direct mail (which is not
part of our global media standard for TYNY). That will represent growth of 31.2% over the 2020 figure ($13.0 billion).

Multiple media owners noted political spending starting earlier than usual for the election cycle in their 2023 earnings
calls. We predict 2024 will be yet another record year for political ad revenue in the U.S., a cyclical impact that is
affecting more markets globally as well. In addition to the presidential election, voters will be asked to decide all 435
seats of the House of Representatives, 33 senate races and 14 gubernatorial races. There will also be ballot initiatives,
potentially including the legalization of sports betting in additional states, that have been large sources of political
spending in previous election years.

During political protection windows (e.g., the 60 days prior

to the general election), the Federal Communications
Commission (FCC) requires that stations guarantee any
“legally qualified candidate” “reasonable access” to local
station inventory. Stations must be consistent and grant the
Political ad revenue
same access to all political parties. in 2024 will reach

$16.0BN,
During the political protection window, the Lowest Unit
Rate (LUR) rule is applied, which means that the
commercial time is sold at the lowest unit rate that the

or $17.1 BN
“station charges its most favored commercial advertiser for
the same classes and amounts of time for the same periods.”

While not subject to the LUR rule, political action

committees (PACs) will also spend money in local markets.
A PAC is a tax-exempt 527 organization that pools including
campaign contributions from members and donates those
funds to campaigns for or against candidates, ballot direct mail, a

31.2%
initiatives or legislation. PACs will pay the highest rates on a
station to get on the air, and this money is often committed
to markets nearer the election date (a few days to a week
before is common).

Advertisers, especially local ones in highly contended

increase over 2020.
districts, will need to carefully consider their message,
timing and target audience in each market to avoid the
++

inventory loss and "noise" of political spending.

16
DECEMBER 2023 • THIS YEAR NEXT YEAR I NA END-OF-YEAR FORECAST I CANADA

Canada
Economy

The Canadian economy has largely

stalled thanks to a slowdown in consumer
spending, a sagging housing market, rising
unemployment and high interest rates.
On the upside, those rates are also helping bring down inflation, which dropped from 4% in
August to 3.1% in October. The Bank of Canada expects inflation to hover around 3.5% through
the top half of 2024 and come down to its target of 2% in 2025. Overall, GDP remained
essentially flat in the first half of 2023, but we anticipate some economic recovery toward the
tail end of 2024. Advertising revenue is expected to grow 4.0% in 2023 and 5.7% in 2024.

On the regulatory front, the Online News Act goes into effect in
December. The law requires tech companies, including Meta and
Google, to provide payment to both local and national news outlets
for sharing or linking to their articles. Meta has already taken action,
forbidding Canadians from sharing news content on Facebook or
Instagram. Google has stated that it, too, will be removing links
from its “Search, News and Discover” products and will not
operate Google News Showcase in Canada. However, according to
the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation, Google continues to talk
with the Canadian government in search of a solution. Meanwhile,

Advertising
the Digital Services Tax act is expected to take effect in January
2024, requiring large tech companies to pay a 3% tax—retroactive
to January 2022—on revenues from online marketplaces, social
media platforms, online ads and the sale and licensing of user data.
revenue is
CANADA AND GLOBAL
AD REVENUE GROWTH
expected to grow
4.0 %
in 2023 and
5.7 %
in 2024.
Source: GroupM
17
DECEMBER 2023 • THIS YEAR NEXT YEAR I NA END-OF-YEAR FORECAST I CANADA

Media trends
Total TV Connected TV
We’re forecasting total TV (linear, plus digital Despite FAST channels such as Tubi being in the
extensions) growth in the near future, given that most market for several years now, (along with streaming
of the global, ad-supported streaming players are being options through local broadcasters), Connected TV is
represented by major local broadcasters: Disney+ in its relative infancy in Canada. The big global
through Rogers Sports & Media, Crave through Bell streamers only recently launched their ad-supported
Media and PlutoTV through Corus Entertainment. offerings in Canada; Pluto and Netflix launched in late
Furthermore, the major local broadcasters are 2022, Crave’s ad-supported option debuted in July
supported by the content they offer through their own 2023, Disney+ arrived November 1, and Amazon Prime
streaming apps and through live sports. with ads will launch sometime early January 2024.
Paramount+ recently announced that it, too, will be
releasing an ad-supported layer in Canada in 2024.
Linear TV
Despite the strength of live sports in linear television,
Following a drop caused by the pandemic in 2020,
ad spending on the medium has slowed due to the
Linear TV grew over 2021 and 2022, according to
migration of dollars to connected TV and premium
Statistics Canada. However, we anticipate a small
video. The SAG-AFTRA strike, which was settled in
decline in 2023 due to shifting audience viewing habits
November, is still likely to have a negative effect on
and the impacts of the now-settled WGA and SAG-
Winter/Spring 2024 schedules, placing even more
AFTRA strikes. We forecast progressive declines in
pressure on depleted inventory due to diminishing
overall linear TV ad spend over the coming years as
audiences. We are forecasting the cost of linear and
shifts in audience viewing to digital continue.
streaming programming for 2024 to remain high and
for broadcasters and streamers to begin bidding
against one another for fresh content. Premium VOD
continues to sell out due to limited availability in
Canada. Some of that pressure may be relieved by the
arrival of connected TV inventory, but streaming
platforms are likely to continue to have shorter ad
breaks than linear TV, and customers paying for ad
The SAG-AFTRA free tiers will further limit available inventory.

strike, which was

settled in November, is still likely to
have a negative effect on
Winter/Spring 2024 schedules, placing
even more pressure on depleted
inventory due to diminishing
audiences. 18
 DECEMBER 2023 • THIS YEAR NEXT YEAR I NA END-OF-YEAR FORECAST I CANADA

Digital
Investment in digital display is increasing moderately,
although buying via insertion order (IO) is declining as
advertisers use programmatic to reach audiences. The

Advertisers
pressure on premium video will remain as brand-safety
fears regarding user-generated content incentivize
brand advertisers to seek out inventory with lower

continue to
reputational risk. The search market is experiencing
inflation due to increased competition for search terms
in key categories. Uncertainty with social platforms

support the
like X (formerly Twitter) and restructuring at Meta are
cause for concern in the social space. Nonetheless,
advertisers continue to support the growth of social,

growth of
placing demand on both display and video inventory.

Retail Media
social, Ecommerce giants Amazon, Loblaws, Best Buy, Triangle
Media and Walmart are driving significant demand and

placing
growth in this space. We foresee this growth continuing
as advertisers seek access to the valuable consumer data
and insights these retailers possess.

demand on Print (including Newspapers

both display
and Magazines)
There continue to be significant challenges in the print

and video
medium, with declining demand, increased production
costs and expected rationalization of titles by publishers.
Magazine and newspaper publishers continue to expand
their digital offerings to offset print declines.

inventory. Out of Home/Cinema

There has been a steady rise in demand for digital and
programmatic OOH, and we continue to see a
substantial increase in demand for cinema inventory.
However, the SAG-AFTRA strike has caused delays to
some movies slated for the end of 2023 and first half of
2024, as actors were prohibited from promoting them
and post-production work was on pause.
++

19
DECEMBER 2023 • THIS YEAR NEXT YEAR I NA END-OF-YEAR FORECAST I CANADA

NORTH AMERICA SUMMARY DATA TABLE

US Dollars in Millions 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028

TV / Pro. Video $66,473.4 $66,620.0 $60,723.6 $69,626.8 $72,053.3 $68,422.8 $65,213.1 $64,669.1 $63,944.7 $62,612.2 $61,170.3

• Growth 0.1% 0.2% -8.9% 14.7% 3.5% -5.0% -4.7% -0.8% -1.1% -2.1% -2.3%

• Share 28.4% 26.3% 24.4% 21.3% 21.0% 18.9% 17.2% 16.3% 15.4% 14.4% 13.5%

Traditional TV 61,453.8 61,163.2 53,172.3 58,684.2 58,217.0 53,282.2 47,817.3 45,677.9 42,828.9 40,965.2 37,315.2

• Growth -1.6% -0.5% -13.1% 10.4% -0.8% -8.5% -10.3% -4.5% -6.2% -4.4% -8.9%

• Share 92.4% 91.8% 87.6% 84.3% 80.8% 77.9% 73.3% 70.6% 67.0% 65.4% 61.0%

Connected TV+ 5,019.6 5,456.8 7,551.3 10,942.6 13,836.2 15,140.5 17,395.8 18,991.2 21,115.8 21,647.1 23,855.1

• Growth 28.8% 8.7% 38.4% 44.9% 26.4% 9.4% 14.9% 9.2% 11.2% 2.5% 10.2%

• Share 7.6% 8.2% 12.4% 15.7% 19.2% 22.1% 26.7% 29.4% 33.0% 34.6% 39.0%

Audio 17,322.7 17,654.4 12,948.9 15,440.1 15,688.3 14,705.2 14,614.7 14,254.9 14,043.1 13,740.9 13,418.5

• Growth -3.2% 1.9% -26.7% 19.2% 1.6% -6.3% -0.6% -2.5% -1.5% -2.2% -2.3%

• Share 7.4% 7.0% 5.2% 4.7% 4.6% 4.1% 3.9% 3.6% 3.4% 3.2% 3.0%

Newspapers 15,369.8 13,701.0 9,900.9 10,443.1 9,814.4 9,463.8 9,162.1 8,905.1 8,435.1 7,900.9 7,329.3

• Growth -13.6% -10.9% -27.7% 5.5% -6.0% -3.6% -3.2% -2.8% -5.3% -6.3% -7.2%

• Share 6.6% 5.4% 4.0% 3.2% 2.9% 2.6% 2.4% 2.2% 2.0% 1.8% 1.6%

Magazines 14,655.3 13,965.3 11,004.4 11,620.8 10,700.7 9,798.3 9,274.5 8,701.8 8,268.3 7,747.0 7,174.1

• Growth -5.9% -4.7% -21.2% 5.6% -7.9% -8.4% -5.3% -6.2% -5.0% -6.3% -7.4%

• Share 6.3% 5.5% 4.4% 3.6% 3.1% 2.7% 2.5% 2.2% 2.0% 1.8% 1.6%

Outdoor 7,674.4 8,312.9 5,966.2 7,251.3 8,314.3 8,583.9 8,845.0 9,246.2 9,665.6 10,059.2 10,476.2

• Growth 4.7% 8.3% -28.2% 21.5% 14.7% 3.2% 3.0% 4.5% 4.5% 4.1% 4.1%

• Share 3.3% 3.3% 2.4% 2.2% 2.4% 2.4% 2.3% 2.3% 2.3% 2.3% 2.3%

Traditional Outdoor 5,166.4 5,436.4 4,233.2 4,963.3 5,368.8 5,184.1 5,138.4 5,367.5 5,448.3 5,680.4 5,872.3

• Growth 3.5% 5.2% -22.1% 17.2% 8.2% -3.4% -0.9% 4.5% 1.5% 4.3% 3.4%

• Share 67.3% 65.4% 71.0% 68.4% 64.6% 60.4% 58.1% 58.1% 56.4% 56.5% 56.1%

Digital OOH 2,508.0 2,876.4 1,733.0 2,288.0 2,945.5 3,399.7 3,706.6 3,878.7 4,217.3 4,378.7 4,603.9

• Growth 7.2% 14.7% -39.8% 32.0% 28.7% 15.4% 9.0% 4.6% 8.7% 3.8% 5.1%

• Share 32.7% 34.6% 29.0% 31.6% 35.4% 39.6% 41.9% 41.9% 43.6% 43.5% 43.9%

Cinema 872.5 904.2 168.3 216.2 477.4 588.7 570.8 581.6 587.8 591.0 593.6

• Growth 3.9% 3.6% -81.4% 28.5% 120.8% 23.3% -3.0% 1.9% 1.1% 0.6% 0.4%

• Share 0.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%

Digital Pure-Play 112,069.8 131,881.4 147,941.7 212,276.1 226,632.2 251,405.4 270,482.7 290,449.9 311,273.3 331,635.0 352,852.9

• Growth 19.7% 17.7% 12.2% 43.5% 6.8% 10.9% 7.6% 7.4% 7.2% 6.5% 6.4%

• Share 47.8% 52.1% 59.5% 64.9% 65.9% 69.3% 71.5% 73.2% 74.8% 76% 78%

Search 50,171.0 57,759.4 59,703.9 83,146.5 86,273.2 93,088.1 97,908.9 102,155.8 106,339.7 110,009.2 113,596.4

• Growth 17.4% 15.1% 3.4% 39.3% 3.8% 7.9% 5.2% 4.3% 4.1% 3.5% 3.3%

• Share 21.4% 22.8% 24.0% 25.4% 25.1% 25.6% 25.9% 25.7% 25.5% 25.3% 25.1%

Non-Search / Non-Retail 53,581.1 61,723.5 68,685.0 98,639.7 104,577.0 117,614.9 127,404.2 138,761.6 150,900.0 162,989.3 175,676.9

• Growth 13.0% 15.2% 11.3% 43.6% 6.0% 12.5% 8.3% 8.9% 8.7% 8.0% 7.8%

• Share 22.9% 24.4% 27.6% 30.2% 30.4% 32.4% 33.7% 35.0% 36.3% 37.5% 38.8%

Retail 8,317.7 12,398.4 19,552.8 30,489.9 35,782.0 40,702.4 45,169.5 49,532.5 54,033.7 58,636.5 63,579.6

• Growth 139.3% 49.1% 57.7% 55.9% 17.4% 13.8% 11.0% 9.7% 9.1% 8.5% 8.4%

• Share 3.5% 4.9% 7.9% 9.3% 10.4% 11.2% 11.9% 12.5% 13.0% 13.5% 14.0%

Advertising
$234,438.0 $253,039.1 $248,654.0 $326,874.4 $343,680.6 $362,967.9 $378,162.9 $396,808.5 $416,217.9 $434,286.3 $453,015.0
Ex-U.S. Political

• Growth 6.8% 7.9% -1.7% 31.5% 5.1% 5.6% 4.2% 4.9% 4.9% 4.3% 4.3%

U.S. Political Advertising 6,546.3 2,096.4 12,093.0 2,697.1 12,758.2 2,680.3 15,988.8 3,423.3 17,697.7 2,956.3 20,097.4

Advertising
$240,984.2 $255,135.5 $260,747.0 $329,571.5 $356,438.8 $365,648.2 $394,151.7 $400,231.8 $433,915.6 $437,242.6 $473,112.4
(Global Definition)

• Growth 8.9% 5.9% 2.2% 26.4% 8.2% 2.6% 7.8% 1.5% 8.4% 0.8% 8.2%

20
CONTACT

Kate Scott-Dawkins
President
Business Intelligence

Market Contacts
Matt Sweeney, Chief Investment Officer, U.S.
Lindsey Talbot, Chief Investment Officer, Canada
Lauren Lavin, NA Commerce Practice Lead

For inquiries, please write:

business.intelligence@groupm.com

21
 GroupM is WPP’s media investment group and the world’s leading
media investment company with a mission to shape the next era of
3 World Trade Center media where advertising works better for people. The company is
175 Greenwich Street responsible for more than $60 billion in annual media investment,
as measured by the independent research bureau COMvergence.
New York, NY 10007 Through its global agencies Mindshare, Wavemaker,
EssenceMediacom, and mSix&Partners, and cross-channel
A WPP Company performance (GroupM Nexus), data (Choreograph), entertainment
(GroupM Motion Entertainment) and investment solutions,
GroupM leverages a unique combination of global scale, expertise,
and innovation to generate sustained value for clients wherever
they do business. Discover more at www.groupm.com.

All rights reserved. This publication is protected by copyright.

No part of it may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or
transmitted in any form, or by any means, electronic, mechanical,
photocopying or otherwise, without written permission from the
copyright owners.

Every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the contents,
but the publishers and copyright owners cannot accept liability in
respect of errors or omissions. Readers will appreciate that the data
is as up-to-date only to the extent that their availability, compilation
and printed schedules will allow and are subject to change.

22
What is Plagiarism?
Complete Plagiarism
Essentially copying the entirety of someone's work and labelling it as your own This is the most
serious type of plagiarism! "It is equivalent to intellectual theft and stealing."

Direct Plagiarism
Essentially copying a section of someone's work and pasting it into your own. It is like complete
plagiarism except it is only a section rather than the whole thing.

Self or Auto Plagiarism

When you use a portion of work you previously created in another project and don't cite yourself.

Paraphrasing plagiarism
Basically, rewriting someone's sentence(s) as your own, maybe making some minor word and
grammatical changes. Just because the words are different doesn't mean the idea changed. This is
one of the most common types of plagiarism!

Inaccurate Authorship / Misleading Attribution

This can happen on group-developed content, either when someone does the work but gets no
credit OR when someone does not do the work and gets credit.

Mosaic Plagiarism
This "may be more difficult to detect because it interlays someone else’s phrases or text within its
own research. It is also known as patchwork plagiarism and it is intentional and dishonest."

Accidental Plagiarism
This can happen a lot. People may be plagiarizing without recognizing it and sometimes face the
same consequences as the people who do recognize they are plagiarizing. Usually accidental
plagiarism happens unintentionally or as neglect or a mistake.

Source-based Plagiarism
Sometimes plagiarism happens because of a source. Here are a few examples of source-based
plagiarism.
 Misleading citation - When someone cites a source that is wrong or doesn't exist.
 Misdirecting citation - When someone fails to cite a source's source, only citing the first
source; or uses a child citation of a parent citation and only cites the parent citation.
 Data fabrication - When someone creates false data and research.
 Data falsification - When someone deliberately changes or omits data to get the results they
want.

Source: https://www.enago.com/academy/fraud-research-many-types-plagiarism
 Chapter Ten

Understanding Populations
and Sampling
 LEARNING OBJECTIVES

• Define a research population;

• Select a sample from a population;

• Describe the process of identifying a target

population and selecting a sampling frame.

• Identify the types of probability and non-probability

sampling and summarize their advantages and
disadvantages.
 RESEARCH SKILLS

• Explain how to chose an appropriate sample

design;

• Outline an appropriate population for a given

research project and select a sample from that
population using an appropriate sampling
method;

• List and detail the challenges for internet

sampling.
 Introduction

• This chapter explores the ways by which data can be gathered for a
research project, and the chapter deals with research populations and
sampling methods.

• The methodological framework of the research project is comprised of an

account of all of the ways and means by which the research was actually
carried out.

• The population used in the research, the sample selected from that
population, and the means used to gather data for the research project
are all fundamental aspects of this framework.

• The model of the research process, (outlined in Chapter One), shows

that, at this stage in the research process we have decided on the
research methodology to be used in the research project, and we have
now come to the stage of defining the population of the research,
deciding whether to work with the entire population or with a sample of
that population.
 The Population of the Study
• The population of a study is all of the individuals, items or
units relevant to the study.

• The population can be comprised of individuals, groups,

organisations, documents, campaigns, incidents, and so
on.

• The population of the research is also called the universe.

• As the term ‘the universe’ implies, the population of a study

is comprised of all of the units or individual belonging to
that population.
 Examples of research populations
The researcher might decide to compare levels of disposable income among:

• EU and non-EU undergraduate students at the University of Liverpool;

• or among undergraduate students at university in Liverpool;

• or among undergraduate students at university in England;

• or among undergraduate students at university in the UK.

• The researcher may decide to focus on the population of undergraduates in UK

universities, or the population of undergraduates in the University of Westminster,
or in the University of Edinburgh, or in Cardiff University.

• The researcher may decide to focus on the population of undergraduates in all

three universities.

• All of these populations are valid. The population of the study is every person
relevant to the population of the study, as the population of the study is defined
by the researcher.
 Questions of Scope

• The researcher defines the population of the study precisely, in order to

ensure that the research project is do-able, in order to ensure that it is
researchable.

• The researcher can only do what it is possible to do, and so the

researcher limits the scope of the research.

• The resources necessary in order to ensure that the research project is

researchable include the amount of time available for the research, the
amount of money required to conduct the research, and the level of
access to the necessary data available to the researcher.
• These are questions of scope, questions of how big the study or the
research project is to be.
 Populations and Samples

• Figure 10.4 (see the following slide) illustrates the

population, the sample and the unit the individual
or the case.

• As can be seen from the figure, the population is

all of the units in the figure.

• The sample is a small sub-set of the population.

• The population is made up all many individual
units, cases or individuals.
 The Issue of Representation

• When using a sample of a population in a research project, the

researcher must clearly describe the sample.

• Then s/he must explain why that sample was selected and clearly
describe the sampling method, the means by which that sample was
selected.

• In describing the sampling method, the researcher aims to establish

how representative the sample is of the research population.

• The key issue in sampling is this notion of representation.

• The concept of representation relates to the degree to which a sample

drawn from a population can be said to be representative of the
population.
 Inclusion and Exclusion Criteria

• Another issue to be addressed is that of the inclusion and exclusion

criteria.

• The inclusion criteria are the criteria potential participants must meet in
order to be included in the study.

• Exclusion criteria are the criteria on which participants will be excluded

from participation in the study.

• Outlining clear inclusion and exclusion criteria is a good way of achieving

clarity in terms of what potential participants would be serve the
research.
 Probability Sampling

• Using probability sampling, the sample selected from the population is

claimed by the researcher to be representative of the population.

• It is of fundamental importance that the sample selected be

representative of the population of the study.

• The researcher using a probability sampling technique wants to claim

that the findings of research conducted with the sample are
generalizable to the entire population of the study.

• Probability sampling is based on the theories of mathematics of

probability.

• Probability sampling techniques include simple random sampling,

stratified sampling, systematic sampling and cluster sampling.
• If used properly, probability sampling techniques yield precise results
while working with samples a fraction the size of the original populations
of research.
 The Sampling Frame

• The basic rule of probability sampling holds that each member of the population
has an equal probability of being selected for inclusion in the sample.

• As this is the case, the researcher, in order to engage in probability sampling,

must have a complete list (or map, or chart), of every member of the population.

• The sample is drawn from this list.

• This list is known as a sampling frame. A sampling frame is a list of element from
which a sample may be drawn, also called working population.

• A sampling frame is a list or a map or a chart in which every member of the

population of the study is represented.
• Each member or item in the sample is randomly selected from the population for
inclusion in the study, using the sampling frame.
 Random sampling and non sampling errors

• Random sampling error is the difference between the

sample result and the result of a census conducted using
identical procedures. Random sampling error occurs
because of chance variation in the scientific selection of
sampling units.

• Random sampling error is a function of sample size. As

sample size increases, random sampling error decreases.

• Systematic (non-sampling) errors result from non-

sampling factors, primarily the nature of a study’s design
and the correctness of execution.
 Simple Random Sampling

• Simple random sampling involves selecting a sample at random from a

sampling frame.

• Let us say that you want to study the population of your class, and there are
thirty students in your class.

• As it is a simple thing to get a complete list of the names of the students in your
class (a sampling frame), it is possible to engage in simple random sampling
with this population.

• The first thing to do is to make a list on a sheet of paper of all of the names of
the people in your class.

• Then tear off each name one by one, and place each of them into a hat or a
box.

• Then select one name at a time.

• You are now engaging in simple random sampling.

 Systematic Sampling

• Systematic sampling involves selecting items at systematic or regular

intervals from the sampling frame.

• For example you might be working in a housing estate trying to

establish which brand of washing powder is used in each house.

• Your sampling frame is made up of all of the houses in the housing

estate.

• Suppose there are 500 houses in the estate and you begin at a random
starting point and then sample every third house, or every fifth house,
or whatever interval of house you decide on, until you complete your
sample.

• You are engaging in systematic sampling.

 Stratified Sampling

• A Stratified Sample is a sample selected based on some known

characteristic of the population, a characteristic which will have an
impact on the research.

• Using stratified sampling the researcher divides, or stratifies, the sample

selected for use in the research using the characteristic which s/he
knows will have an impact on the research.

• See the example ‘A study of religious practice among your classmates’

for a simple and good explanation of these sampling methods.
• In the example, the researcher uses first a simple random sampling
technique, then a systematic sampling technique, before finally deciding
that a stratified sampling technique in really required for this particular
study with this particular population.
 Non-probability sampling

• In non-probability sampling, the sample is selected to represent the population, but it cannot
be said to be representative of the population, in any statistical sense.

• The emphasis in non-probability sampling is on the capacity of a relatively small number of

cases to clearly and comprehensively illustrate the phenomenon under investigation.

• It often happens with social science research projects that it is not possible to produce a
complete list of the population; when this is the case, it is not possible to develop a sampling
frame.

• For example, a researcher might be asked to examine brand loyalty among consumers of
Cosmopolitan magazine. It wouldn't be possible to compile a complete list of consumers of
Cosmopolitan magazine.

• Without a complete sampling frame, it is not possible to engage in probability sampling, as

without a sampling frame it is not possible to guarantee that every member of the population
has an equally likely chance of being included in the study.

• The sampling approach used in such circumstances is non-probability sampling. Non-

probability sampling techniques include judgmental sampling, quota sampling, snowball
sampling and convenience sampling.
 Judgemental or Purposive Sampling

• Using a judgmental or purposive sampling technique the

researcher decides, or makes a judgement, about who to
include in the research.

• The criterion for inclusion in the research is the capacity of

the participant to inform the research.

• Each person, or unit, chosen to be included must have a

contribution to make to the research.

• People chosen to be included in such a sample would be

key informants on the topic under investigation.
 Two different non-probability sampling
techniques

Quota Sampling: Using a quota sampling technique the

researcher develops a sample of participants for the
research using different quota criteria.

Convenience Sampling: Using a convenience sampling

technique the researcher engages those participants in the
research it is easiest to include, for example people in the
newsagents, people in the supermarket and so on. The
researcher knows how many people to include in the
sample, then s/he continues to engage people in the
research until the sample has been filled.
 Snowball Sampling

• Using a snowball sampling technique the researcher finds one participant

in the research, s/he conducts the research with that participant, and then
s/he asks that participant to recommend the next participant.

• Participants must fit the inclusion criteria for the research project.

• The researcher goes through the procedure with the second participant
and when finished, asks that participant to recommend another
participant to be included in the research.

• The researcher continues in this manner, conducting the research with

participants and then asking each participant to recommend the next
participant, until the sample is complete.
 Saturation Point

• In some qualitative research projects the research is allowed to unfold, and so

the population or the samples used are sometimes not defined from the outset.

• A frequently asked question in such circumstances is, when does the researcher
stop engaging participants in the research?

• The answer is when the researcher reaches saturation point.

• Saturation point is reached when the researcher, though continuing to explore

the phenomenon with participants in the research, no longer hears any new
thoughts, feelings, attitudes, emotions, intentions, etc.

• This is saturation point, the researcher is ‘saturated’ with knowledge on the topic
and continuing to engage participants would not be useful, necessary, or
ethically sound, as engaging further participants in the research will not add in
any way to the knowledge generated.
 Internet sampling

• Internet surveys allow researchers to reach a large sample rapidly—

both an advantage and a disadvantage.

• Sample size requirements can be met overnight or in some cases

almost instantaneously.

• There are now so many Internet surveys, frequent Internet users may
be more selective about which surveys they bother answering.

• Another disadvantage of Internet surveys is the lack of computer

ownership and Internet access among certain segments of the
population.

• A sample of Internet users is representative only of Internet users, who

tend to be younger, better educated, and more affluent than the
general population.
Qualitative Research Tools

Chapter Eight
Qualitative Research: An Introduction
 Learning Objectives

1. Understand qualitative research

2. Be able to define and explain qualitative research
3. Know how and when to use qualitative research
 What’s in the Box?

• The “skateboard footwear” company needed to become

a “lifestyle” company.

• Qualitative research questions included, “What is in the

mind and heart of a boarder, and what things define the
skateboarding experience?

• Such questions call for qualitative research methods.

 What is Qualitative Research?

• Qualitative business research

• Research that addresses business objectives through techniques
that allow the researcher to provide elaborate interpretations of
phenomena without depending on numerical measurement
The focus is on discovering inner meanings and new
insights.
• Researcher-dependent
• Researcher must extract meaning from unstructured responses
such as text from a recorded interview or a collage representing
the meaning of some experience.
 Uses of Qualitative Research

• Qualitative research is useful when:

• The aim of the research is to develop a detailed and in-
depth understanding of some phenomena.
• It is difficult to develop specific and actionable problem
statements or research objectives.
• The aim of the research is to learn how a phenomenon
occurs in its natural setting or to learn how to express
some concept in colloquial terms.
• The behavior the researcher is studying is particularly
context-dependent.
• A fresh approach to studying the problem is needed.
 Qualitative “versus” Quantitative Research

• Qualitative research can accomplish research objectives

that quantitative research cannot, and quantitative
research can accomplish objectives that qualitative
research cannot.

• Quantitative business research

• Descriptive and conclusive
Addresses research objectives through empirical assessments that
involve numerical measurement and statistical analysis.

• Qualitative business research

• Exploratory
Addresses research objectives through empirical assessments that
involve non-numerical approaches. Uses relatively small samples.
 Contrasting Exploratory and Confirmatory Research

• Qualitative data
• Data that are not characterized by numbers but rather are
textual, visual, or oral.
Focus is on stories, visual portrayals, meaningful
characterizations, interpretations, and other expressive
descriptions.
• Quantitative data
• Represent phenomena by assigning numbers in an ordered
and meaningful way.
Comparing Qualitative and Quantitative Research
 Qualitative Research Orientations

• Major Orientations of Qualitative Research

1. Phenomenology—originating in philosophy and
psychology
2. Ethnography—originating in anthropology
3. Grounded theory—originating in sociology
4. Case studies—originating in psychology and in
business research
What Is a Phenomenological Approach to Research?

• Phenomenology
• A philosophical approach to studying human
experiences based on the idea that human experience
itself is inherently subjective and determined by the
context in which people live.
• Seeks to describe, reflect on, and interpret
experiences.
• Relies on conversational interview tools, although
image-based research is also useful.
 What Is Hermeneutics?

• Hermeneutics
• Can be defined as the theory of interpretation and the
study of the processes of interpretation.
• Hermeneutic Unit
• A text passage from a respondent’s story that is linked
with a key theme from within the respondent’s story or
provided by the researcher.
 What Is Ethnography?

• Ethnography
• Represents ways of studying cultures through methods
that involve the researcher becoming a part of that
culture.
• Participant-observation
• An ethnographic research approach where the
researcher becomes immersed within the culture that
he or she is studying and draws data from his or her
observations.
 What Is Grounded Theory?
• Grounded Theory
• Is a research methodology specifically designed for the
production of theory from data.
The researcher asks the questions to him or herself and repeatedly
questions the responses to derive deeper explanations. Key questions
such as
What is happening here?
How is it different?
• The distinguishing characteristic of grounded theory is that it
does not begin with a theory, but instead develops theory from
the data gathered in the research project. Theory is inductively
developed from data analysis.
 What Are Case Studies?

• Case Studies

• A case study is an in-depth study of the

phenomenon under investigation.
• The case being studied may be as relatively simple as
one incident, or as complex as an entire organisation.
 Observation

• A key data gathering method

• The researcher observes what is happening in the field,
and then records those observations (often in the form of
field notes in a field diary).
• Field notes
The researcher’s descriptions of what actually happens in
the field.
These notes then become the text from which meaning is
extracted.
• Advantageous for gaining insight into things that
respondents cannot or will not verbalize.
• In participant observation, the researcher is a
participant in the action being observed.
 Focus Groups

• An unstructured, free-flowing discussion among a

small group (6-10 people) facilitated by a
moderator who encourages dialogue among
participants.
• The participants, through dialogue, produce new
insights into the phenomenon under
investigation.
 Focus Group Participants

• Group Composition
• 6 to 10 people
• Relatively homogeneous
• Capable of providing insight on the phenomenon
under investigation
 The Focus Group Moderator

• Moderator
• A person who leads a focus group and insures that
everyone gets a chance to speak and contribute to the
discussion.
• Qualities of a good moderator:
• Develops rapport with the group
• Good listener
• Tries not to interject his or her own opinions
• Controls discussion without being overbearing
 Planning a Focus Group Schedule

• Discussion guide
• Includes written introductory comments informing the
group about the focus group purpose and rules and
then outlines topics or questions to be addressed in the
focus group.
 Interactive Media and Online Focus Groups

• Online focus group

• A qualitative research effort in which a group of
individuals provides unstructured comments by
entering their remarks into an electronic Internet
display board of some type.
• Focus blog
• A type of informal, “continuous” focus group
established as an Internet blog for the purpose of
collecting qualitative data from participant
comments.
 Depth Interviews

• Depth interview
• A one-on-one interview between a researcher and a
research respondent conducted about some relevant
business or social topic.
• Laddering
• A particular approach to probing asking respondents to
compare differences between brands at different levels.
• Produces distinctions at the:
attribute level
benefit level
value or motivation level
 Conversations

• Conversations
• An informal qualitative data-gathering approach in
which the researcher engages a respondent in a
discussion of the relevant subject matter.
 Social Networking
• One of the most impactful trends in recent times.
• For many, social networking sites have become the
primary tool for communicating with friends both far and
near and known and unknown.
Facebook
MySpace
• A large portion of this communication involves
discussions of business and consumer-related
information.
• Companies monitor these sites for information related to
their brands.
 Free-Association and Sentence
Completion Methods

• Free-association techniques
• Record a respondent’s first cognitive reactions (top-of-mind) to some
stimulus.
• Allow researchers to map a respondent’s thoughts or memory.
• Sentence completion
• People who drink juice are
• A man who drinks pressed orange juice is
• Fresh juice is most liked by
• The woman drinking juice in the commercial
 Other Techniques

• Collages
• Respondents prepare a collage (artwork
assembled from different media) to represent
their experiences.
• The collages are analyzed for meaning.
 Other Techniques (cont’d)

• Thematic Apperception Test (TAT)

• Presents subjects with an ambiguous picture(s) in
which consumers and products are the center of
attention.
• Investigator asks the subject to tell what is happening
in the picture(s) now and what might happen next.
An Example of a TAT Picture
 Chapter 7
Quantitative Research:
An Introduction to Measurement
 Measurement and Scaling Concepts

1. Understand quantitative research.

2. Be able to define and explain quantitative

research.

3. Know how and when to use quantitative

research.
 What Do I Measure?

• Measurement
• The process of describing some property of a phenomenon,
usually by assigning numbers in a reliable and valid way.
• Concept
• A generalized idea about a class of objects that has been given
a name, an abstraction of reality that is the basic unit for
theory development. Every discipline and theory is made up of
concepts, e.g. key ideas, key words, key phrases.
Are There Any Validity Issues with this Measurement?
 Operational Definitions
• Operationalization
• The process of identifying scales that correspond to variance in a
concept involved in a research process.
• Scales
• A device providing a range of values that correspond to different
values in a concept being measured.
• Correspondence rules
• Indicate the way that a certain value on a scale corresponds to some
true value of a concept.
• Constructs
• A term used for concepts that are measured with multiple variables.
 Levels of Scale Measurement

• Nominal
• Assigns a value to an object for identification or classification
purposes.
• Most elementary level of measurement.
• Ordinal
• Ranking scales allowing things to be arranged based on how
much of some concept they possess.
Nominal, Ordinal, Interval, and Ratio Scales provide
Different Information
 Levels of Scale Measurement (cont’d)
• Interval
• Interval scales have both nominal and ordinal properties.
• But they also capture information about differences in
quantities of a concept.

• Ratio
• Highest form of measurement.
• Have all the properties of interval scales with the additional
attribute of representing absolute quantities.
• Absolute zero.
Mathematical and Statistical Analysis of Scales

• Discrete Measures
• Measures that can take on only one of a finite
number of values.
• Continuous Measures
• Measures that reflect the intensity of a concept by
assigning values that can take on any value along
some scale range.
 Index Measures
• Attributes
• Single characteristics or fundamental features that pertain
to an object, person, situation, or issue.
• Index Measures
• An index assigns a value based on how much of the
concept being measured is associated with an observation.
• Indexes often are formed by putting several variables
together.
• Composite Measures
• Assign a value to an observation based on a mathematical
derivation of multiple variables.
 Computing Scale Values
• Summated Scale
• A scale created by simply summing (adding together) the
response to each item making up the composite measure.
• Reverse Coding
• A method of making sure all items forming a composite scale
are scored in the same direction. Negative items can be
recoded, changing the value of a response to a scale so it is
opposite of the original value.
• Done so that negative items in a scale are scored in the same
direction as positive items.
 Recoding Made Easy
1. Click on transform.

2. Click on recode.

3. Choose to recode into the same variable.

4. Select the variable(s) to be recoded.

5. Click on old and new values.

6. Use the menu that appears to enter the old values and the matching
new values. Click add after entering each pair.

7. Click continue.
Three Criteria for Good Measurement

Reliability Validity

Good
Measurement

Sensitivity
 Reliability
• Reliability
• The degree to which measures are free from random error
and therefore yield consistent results.
• Internal Consistency
• Represents a measure’s homogeneity or the extent to which
each indicator of a concept converges on some common
meaning.
 Internal Consistency
• Split-half Method
• A method for assessing internal consistency by checking the
results of one-half of a set of scaled items against the results
from the other half.
• Coefficient alpha (α)
• The most commonly applied estimate of a multiple item
scale’s reliability.
• Represents the average of all possible split-half reliabilities
for a construct.
 Test-Retest Reliability
• Test-retest Method
• Used to estimate reliability.
• Administering the same scale or measure to the same
respondents at two separate points in time to test for stability.
• Represents a measure’s repeatability.
• Problems:
• The pre-measure, or first measure, may sensitize the
respondents and subsequently influence the results of the
second measure.
• Time effects that produce changes in attitude or other
maturation of the subjects.
 Validity
• Validity
• The accuracy of a measure or the extent to which a score truthfully
represents a concept.
Does a scale measure what was intended to be measured?
• Establishing Validity:
• Is there a consensus that the scale measures what it is supposed to
measure?
• Does the measure correlate with other measures of the same
concept?
• Does the behavior expected from the measure predict actual
observed behavior?
 Validity (cont’d)
• Face Validity
• A scale’s content logically appears to reflect what was intended to be
measured.
• Content Validity
• The degree that a measure covers the breadth of the domain of interest.
• Criterion Validity
• The ability of a measure to correlate with other standard measures of similar
constructs or established criteria.
• Construct Validity
• Exists when a measure reliably measures and truthfully represents a unique
concept.
 Validity (cont’d)
• Convergent Validity
• Concepts that should be related to one another are,
in fact, related; highly reliable scales contain
convergent validity.
• Discriminant Validity
• Represents how unique or distinct is a measure; a
scale should not correlate too highly with a measure
of a different construct.
 Sensitivity

• Sensitivity
• A measurement instrument’s ability to accurately
measure variability in stimuli or responses.
• Generally increased by adding more response points or
adding scale items.