Collecting Sources
Student: Max Zeng
Research Question: Is it true that AI’s development will lead to a decrease in unemployment?
Resource 1:
Link to the source and full MLA Citation.
Autor, David. "Why are there still so many jobs? The history and future of workplace
automation." Journal of Economic Perspectives, vol. 29, no. 3, 2015, pp. 3-30.
Evaluation – does it pass the CRRAAB Test? This article was commissioned by the Director General of Employment, Labour and
Weaknesses? Find a better source? Social Affairs of the OECD as part of the OECD's work on the future of work. This is
Or use anyway – a weak source is better than definitely an authoritative source of information. The purpose of this article is to discuss
no source! the potential impact of technological progress on employment, and give suggestions. So
the purpose is to provide reference for researchers, and there is no real loss
Key facts
(Consequences and causes of the issue) First, the adoption of new technologies is a slow process due to economic, legal and social
barriers, so technological substitution often does not occur as expected.
Second, even with the introduction of new technologies, workers can prevent technological
unemployment by switching tasks to adapt to changing technological endowments.
Third, technological change also creates more jobs through the demand for new technologies
and higher competitiveness.
Key perspective(s) 1. The estimated share of "jobs at risk" cannot be equated with actual or expected job losses
Claims due to technological progress, for three reasons.
Quote
2.Automation and digitization are unlikely to destroy large numbers of jobs. However, low-
quality workers may bear the brunt of adjustment costs because their jobs are more automated
than those of highly qualified workers. So the likely challenge ahead lies in tackling rising
inequality and ensuring adequate (re) training, especially for low-qualified workers.
Reflection – how does it progress your This article provides readers with a comprehensive discussion of job automation and
research? technological progress on employment, and possible solutions to deal with these changes. It
predicts possible future job employment changes from a more macro perspective than AI, and
provides a general direction for my search
Implications – what should I look for next? My subsequent search should have taken me to a more specific level, from the
impact of information technology on employment
Link to the source Brynjolfsson, Erik, and Andrew McAfee. The Second Machine Age: Work, Progress, and
Prosperity in a Time of Brilliant Technologies. WW Norton & Company, 2014.
Evaluation – does it pass the CRRAAB Test? The data and examples cited in this paper are all from before 2014, so the information is
Weaknesses? Find a better source? definitely not accurate in terms of timing, but it does show the thoughts and trends
Or use anyway – a weak source is better than about the relationship between technology and employment at that time
no source!
Key facts From 2000 to 2009, America's productivity growth was just 1.5%, down from 2.5% at its
(Consequences and causes of the issue) peak in the mid-1990s. This has led some to worry about whether rapid advances in
digital technology can actually deliver productivity gains.
Nearly half of all jobs could be eliminated by 2030 because of machine automation,
according to a report by the Oxford Martin School. This means that digital technology
and machine intelligence are likely to bring great changes and challenges to the labor
market.
The development of artificial intelligence technology is already having an impact on
many professions, including bank tellers, legal assistants and even surgeons. In some
areas, the accuracy of artificial intelligence has surpassed that of human experts.
Digital technology and machine intelligence will change the way of working and living in
the future, and may bring some new opportunities and challenges. For example, digital
technologies can provide individuals with more personalized health care and education
services, while also potentially leading to massive unemployment and income inequality.
Key perspective(s) 1.Digital technology and machine intelligence will change the way of working and living
Claims in the future, and may bring some new opportunities and challenges.
Quote
2.Advances in digital technology and machine intelligence have begun to affect
occupations as diverse as bank tellers, legal assistants and even surgeons.
3.Digital technology and machine intelligence may have an impact on income
distribution, resulting in some people losing their jobs while others gain higher incomes
and better job opportunities.
4.Advances in digital technology and machine intelligence may accelerate productivity
gains, but they may also have adverse effects on the labor market and society, requiring
policy makers and entrepreneurs to think together about how to respond to these
changes.
Reflection – how does it progress your This article makes my prediction of the development trend of information
research? technology more certain, and further Narrows the scope of search topics
Implications – what should I look for next? The third article should be close to my question and explore the possible impact of AI on
employment
Link to the source Technology at Work v2.0: The Future is Not What it Used to Be. Citigroup Global Perspectives
& Solutions, 2016.
Evaluation – does it pass the CRRAAB Test? The team wrote in 2016. Although they could not predict disruptive inventions such as
Weaknesses? Find a better source? chatGPT, they are mostly experts in the field and very authoritative
Or use anyway – a weak source is better than
no source!
Key facts The risk of jobs being replaced by automation varies by country
(Consequences and causes of the issue)
Which policies are likely to be most effective to offset the risks of automation impacting
labour and wealth distribution?
The payback period for robot systems are failing
Techno-optimists(76%) vs techno-pessimsts(21%) no answer(3%)
Key perspective(s) Technological progress will have a profound impact on the job market: It
Claims will change the nature of work, possibly leading to the elimination of some
Quote positions, while also creating new jobs, the report said.
Employment structure will change: Advances in automation and machine
intelligence will lead to a shift in the structure of the labor market,
according to the report. Certain occupations may face greater challenges,
while new employment opportunities may open up in others.
Skills demand will change: The report stresses that technological advances
will have a significant impact on the skills needed for work. Certain
traditional skills are likely to reduce demand, while new skills such as digital
technology, data analysis and innovation capabilities will increase.
Importance of education and training: The report notes that education and
training will play a key role in helping the workforce adapt to technological
change and become more competitive for jobs. Continuous learning and
skill updatin
Reflection – how does it progress your This article is the most important one in my search. It makes predictions from people's
research? opinions on AI, the impact of technological progress on employment, and the possibility
of education and skill demand brought by the reform, which will directly influence my
thinking direction on the problem
Implications – what should I look for next? Next, I would like to find a specific analysis of employment forms, which must have more
concrete examples and more predictions of occupations
Link to the source and full MLA Citation. Frey, Carl Benedikt, and Michael A. Osborne. "The Future of Employment: How Susceptible are
Jobs to Computerisation?" Technological Forecasting and Social Change, vol. 114, 2017, pp.
254-280.
Evaluation – does it pass the CRRAAB Test? I think the job predictions made in this article are reasonable, and the fact that it was
Weaknesses? Find a better source? written in 2017 doesn't make her correct
Or use anyway – a weak source is better than
no source!
Key facts According to a study by a panel of 140 machine learning experts and computer
(Consequences and causes of the issue) scientists, the study estimates that 47% of jobs could be automated over the next 20
years.
The study also listed a number of highly automated occupations, including data entry,
librarian, fiduciary, tailor, financial auditor, tax expert, tax preparer, car driver, voice actor,
journalist and so on.
The automation of these occupations is likely to affect different groups differently. For
example, less educated workers may be more vulnerable to automation than highly
educated people working in professional and managerial fields.
In addition, the paper cites a number of other studies and reports, such as the U.S.
Department of Labor report and McKinsey & Company study, to support its conclusions.
Key perspective(s) Automation risk: The study finds that a significant portion of jobs is susceptible to
Claims automation. The authors estimate that around 47% of jobs in the United States are at
Quote high risk of computerization.
Job polarization: The research suggests that automation contributes to job polarization,
where employment opportunities are increasingly concentrated in high-skilled and low-
skilled occupations, with a decline in the middle-skilled jobs.
Skills and education: The authors emphasize the importance of skills and education in
adapting to the changing job market. They suggest that workers with skills that are
difficult to automate, such as creative and social intelligence, are likely to have better
employment prospects.
Differential impact: The impact of automation varies across occupations and
demographic groups. Low-wage jobs and routine tasks are particularly vulnerable to
automation, while jobs requiring high levels of creativity, problem-solving, and social
interaction are less susceptible.
Policy implications: The paper raises important policy questions regarding the need for
reskilling and retraining programs, social safety nets, and strategies to promote inclusive
growth in the face of automation.
Reflection – how does it progress your The main purpose is to verify the correctness of the last article and find more reasonable
research? examples to develop my own ideas
Implications – what should I look for next? Continue finding some specific analysis of employment forms, which must have more
concrete examples and more predictions of occupations
Link to the source World Economic Forum. The Future of Jobs Report 2020. World Economic Forum, 2020
Evaluation – does it pass the CRRAAB Test? This is a satisfactory article among the several I have found. It has a strong timeliness.
Weaknesses? Find a better source? Although there was no chatGPT at that time, it had completely entered the era of big
Or use anyway – a weak source is better than data and the team was very strong
no source!
Key facts In the coming years, digital technologies and automation will transform the way work is
(Consequences and causes of the issue) done and the job market. This includes the emergence of new technologies and the
application of artificial intelligence.
Jobs in some traditional fields will be replaced by technology, while jobs in some
emerging fields will grow, such as artificial intelligence, cloud computing, big data, etc.
The skills and positions required will change in the future, such as more innovation,
digital skills, leadership and emotional intelligence;
The development of technology and automation may lead to a rise in unemployment,
but it will also create new jobs and employment opportunities;
Policy makers and businesses need to take steps to ensure that the workforce has the
skills and capabilities it needs for the future, as well as to deal with issues such as
possible inequality and rising unemployment.
Key perspective(s) The impact of technological progress on the job market: The report states that
Claims technological progress will have a broad and profound impact on the job market.
Quote Emerging technologies such as automation, artificial intelligence and machine learning
will change the nature and demands of jobs, possibly leading to the disappearance of
some positions.
Occupational needs and Skills transformation: The report highlights the importance of
changing needs and skills in different occupations. Certain skills, such as complex
problem solving, creativity and interpersonal skills, will become more important, while
other traditional skills may reduce demand.
Emerging occupations and skills in demand: The report states that as technology
advances, emerging occupations will emerge and demand for specific skills will increase.
This includes data analysts, artificial intelligence specialists, software developers,
digitisation specialists, etc.
Uncertainty in the job market: The report cites technological advances and changes in
the global economic environment as creating uncertainty in the job market. At the same
time, globalization and demographic changes also have an impact on employment.
Employment and education policy: The report highlights the important roles of
policymakers, educational institutions and business leaders, and the need to work
together to address the challenges posed by technological change. Policies and
initiatives that provide adaptive training, transition support and employment
opportunities are considered key.
Reflection – how does it progress your It is the same as the previous articles to verify the validity of the views
research?
Implications – what should I look for next?
Link to the source McKinsey Global Institute. Jobs Lost, Jobs Gained: What the Future of Work Will Mean for
Jobs, Skills, and Wages. McKinsey & Company, 2017.
Evaluation – does it pass the CRRAAB Test? This is a very authoritative report from the McKinsey Global Institute, dated 2017, but
Weaknesses? Find a better source? otherwise it fits the requirements
Or use anyway – a weak source is better than
no source!
Key facts According to the report's estimates, between 40 million and 800 million full-time jobs
(Consequences and causes of the issue) worldwide could be lost to automation by 2030.
The report predicts that by 2030, there will be a number of new jobs, including data
analysts, artificial intelligence specialists, software developers and others, which will have
a higher demand for technical and digital skills.
Some positions may change as a result of automation and technological advances,
requiring reconfiguration of job tasks and skill requirements.
The report notes that different industries and occupations are at different risk from
automation. For example, jobs in manufacturing and customer service are more
vulnerable to automation, while jobs in fields such as education and health care are less
affected.
The report also stresses the importance of skills training and education to cope with
future changes in work and improve the resilience of workers.
Key perspective(s) Technological advances and automation will have a profound impact on employment:
Claims millions of jobs worldwide are likely to be lost to automation by 2030, but new ones will
Quote also be created.
Skills demand will change: The future job market will demand more technical and digital
skills, and workers will need to constantly learn and adapt to new technologies in order
to meet the requirements of new positions.
Cross-domain skills will be more important: Future work trends emphasize the
importance of cross-domain skills, such as innovation, problem solving and interpersonal
skills.
Different industries and occupations will be affected to varying degrees: The impact of
automation and technological advances will vary across industries and occupations, with
some industries likely to see greater job risk while others may see job growth.
Education and training needs to adapt: In order to adapt to the demands of the jobs of
the future, education and training systems need to adapt to provide skills training and
learning opportunities in line with new technologies and job trends.
Reflection – how does it progress your This article mainly analyzes and predicts each position of employment, which brings me
research? a lot of ideas and thoughts
Implications – what should I look for next?
Link to the source and full MLA Citation. Ng, Andrew. "Machine Learning and AI via Brain simulations." Science, vol. 358, no. 6363,
2017, pp. 1183-1184.
Evaluation – does it pass the CRRAAB Test? The topic of this article is brain simulation to further explain the impact of technology on
Weaknesses? Find a better source? employment, so the issue of time is negligible
Or use anyway – a weak source is better than
no source!
Key facts The article mentions research in neuroscience, pointing out that the brain is a powerful
(Consequences and causes of the issue) computing system, and that by simulating how the brain works, it could advance
advances in machine learning and artificial intelligence.
The authors cite a study that used brain-computer interface technology to implant
electrodes in the cerebral cortex to enable paralysed patients to move through thought-
controlled robotic arms.
The article points to successful examples of deep learning, including areas such as
speech recognition and image classification, where machine learning algorithms are able
to match or exceed human performance levels.
The authors point out that much remains unexplained about how the brain works,
though
Key perspective(s) Brain simulation can provide new insights and approaches to machine learning and
Claims artificial intelligence. By simulating the computational processes and workings of the
Quote brain, the development of more powerful machine learning algorithms and intelligent
systems can be explored.
The research of brain-computer interface technology provides new possibilities for
connecting human brain with computer system. By implanting electrodes into the
cerebral cortex, people can control external devices, such as robotic arms, using their
thoughts, offering new hope to paralysed patients.
Deep learning has achieved great success in speech recognition, image classification and
other fields. The development of these algorithms benefits from the understanding and
simulation of the brain's computational patterns, allowing machine learning systems to
achieve perceptual and cognitive abilities similar to those of humans.
Reflection – how does it progress your It is also a very specific paper, in which the analysis of brain simulation makes me see
research? directly the impact of technological progress. Not only AI, but all professions merge with
each other or disappear due to technological progress
Implications – what should I look for next?
Keep looking for articles with different perspectives on the issue
Link to the source PwC. "Will robots really steal our jobs?" PwC, 2018
Evaluation – does it pass the CRRAAB Test? The rapid development of AI today may make the content of this paper a little different
Weaknesses? Find a better source? from that of the future, but not much
Or use anyway – a weak source is better than
no source!
Key facts In many industries, increased investment in robotics and automation systems can help
(Consequences and causes of the issue) improve efficiency and productivity.
Research shows that automation could lead to an estimated $7.5 trillion in economic
growth by 2030.
According to PwC, more than two-thirds of US business leaders believe AI and
automation will have a positive impact on the future of work.
However, the article also points out that automation could have a negative impact on
some jobs, leading to higher unemployment, especially those requiring low-skilled jobs
such as operators in logistics and manufacturing.
In the UK, around 20% of jobs will be at risk of automation by 2030, according to one of
the studies. In the United States, the figure could reach 38 percent.
Key perspective(s) In the next 20 years, automation and artificial intelligence technologies will affect all
Claims industries, but will not lead to mass unemployment, but will change the nature and type
Quote of employment. Therefore, people need to constantly learn and update their skills to
adapt to the future job market. In addition, policy makers need to develop policies and
plans to ensure that the development of AI and automation technologies is in line with
the interests of society.
Reflection – how does it progress your
research? Serve as a validation and confirmation of some previous ideas
Implications – what should I look for next?
A return to the macro perspective of science and technology development of the article
to conclude
Link to the source Schwab, Klaus. The Fourth Industrial Revolution. Crown Business, 2017.
Evaluation – does it pass the CRRAAB Test? The only downside is timing, but the overall forecast is very close to current trends
Weaknesses? Find a better source?
Or use anyway – a weak source is better than
no source!
Key facts In 2015, mobile devices and data traffic exceeded the number of people in the world;
(Consequences and causes of the issue) In 2016, the number of Internet users in the world reached 3.4 billion, accounting for
46% of the global population.
In 2016, the number of smartphone users in the world reached 2.4 billion, accounting for
32% of the global population.
In 2016, the number of Internet of Things devices in the world has exceeded 16 billion,
with an annual growth rate of 30%;
In 2015, there were already 5 billion connected devices in the world, and the number is
expected to reach 20 billion by 2020;
Over the past five years, global investment in AI has exceeded $60 billion.
Key perspective(s) The key conclusion of "The Fourth Industrial Revolution" is that we are
Claims currently in the midst of a major technological shift that will fundamentally
Quote transform how we live and work. This transformation, driven by the merging
of physical, digital, and biological systems, is likely to have profound
implications for economies, societies, and individuals. The author argues that
in order to harness the benefits of this transformation and mitigate its
potential negative effects, we need to take a proactive approach and invest in
education and training programs, as well as policies that promote innovation
and social inclusion. The book also highlights the importance of ethical
considerations and the need for a new social contract that takes into account
the changing nature of work and the role of technology in our lives.
Reflection – how does it progress your End with an essay that takes a macro view of technological development, pulling back
research? from specific examples to a macro explanation
Implications – what should I look for next? End
