Retail Forecast 2021
Retail Forecast 2021
Petah Marian
01.18.21 · 22 minutes
Klarna
Analysis
2020 was a year of upheaval and great uncertainty for retailers, with record
levels of store closures and bankruptcies. The macro environment is likely to
continue to remain volatile and it will be down to retailers to undertake the bold
strategies that will ensure their relevance in the future.
In the US alone, 11,000 stores closed and 40 major retailers went bankrupt in 2020.
With herd immunity and vaccination levels unlikely to to reach levels that will allow
for meaningful lifestyle changes, the first half of 2021 is likely to provide many of the
same challenges faced in 2020 – with additional border headaches for those
operating between the EU and UK.
While the circumstances may not have changed, what is changing is the
understanding of what the problems are and the ability to respond to them.
Working to stay open and operational through continuing periods of lockdown will
be important, but it's also essential that retailers treat the shi s emerging as longer-
term movements and realign business accordingly. The hollowing out of the middle
class, the climate emergency and the transition online are long term evolutions and
businesses need to adopt strategies that address all of these in order to ensure long
term survival.
Selfridges
1
Diverging fortunes
The global economy is expected to recover slowly from the collapse caused by
the Covid-19 pandemic. Output is expected to expand 4% in 2021 but will
remain more than 5% below pre-pandemic projections, according to World
Bank predictions.
Economies around the world will face very different outlooks in 2021, with markets
that have successfully navigated the pandemic having very different outlooks.
China's economy is forecast to grow by 7.9% in 2021; US GDP is forecast to expand
3.5% in 2021, a er an estimated 3.6% contraction in 2020. In the euro area, output is
anticipated to grow 3.6% this year, following a 7.4% decline in 2020. Similarly, New
Zealand, which took initial aggressive moves to lock down in the first wave is surging
out into a V-shaped recovery in the third quarter of 2020, with the 14% jump in GDP
significantly higher than economists in the country forecast, coming against an 11%
contraction in the second quarter.
This divergence in economic outlooks is also taking place at an individual level and a
corporate one with the K-shaped forecast likely to see success of larger brands and
people with higher incomes that have been able to use their scale and adapt to a
digital reality, while SMEs and those in lower paying roles likely to face increased
difficulties due to lower levels of digital integration and jobs that require a physical
presence.
2
Building back better
Consumers will be expecting companies to build back better from the crisis,
with more sustainable and equitable systems that are building towards a
positive future.
3
Life, online
2020 saw the world shift online as lockdowns prevented real life interaction. As
vaccines start to shift behaviours in the latter parts of the year consumers will
have normalised online behaviours and expect businesses to be able to serve
them digitally.
In India, the average amount of screen time shot up by 25% over the course of the
pandemic to almost seven hours per day, according to research commissioned by
handset maker Vivo and conducted by CMR. These sorts of statistics are being
replicated around the world, with the largest shi s taking place in emerging
markets, according to research conducted by the UN Conference on Trade and
Development.
E-commerce is defining the new normal for consumers, with Edge by Ascential
forecasts placing e-commerce growth at 32.3% in 2020, to account for 27.7% of
overall sales.
Where consumers are starting to return to a version of Covid-normal, digital
penetration is remaining, for instance, in China, online sales accounted for 74.5% of
sales in 2020, with this predicted to increase to 77.1% in 2021.
Businesses will need to incorporate digital into every aspect of retail strategy,
integrating online options into every aspect of the sales journey.
4
Sainsbury's PCA-Stream Yeezy Walmart Amazon
Recon guring the physical Place re-making Experiential e-commerce Convenience Supply chain management
store
5
Artem Beliaikin: Pexels Klarna @telfarglobal Good Club Foot Locker
6
Recon guring the physical store
Consumer shopping patterns are changing rapidly and beyond the obvious
shifts that are taking place around ensuring and signposting safety, the role of
the store is changing and retailers will need to evolve.
Changing working patterns through the pandemic have had a huge impact on how
people shop. Popping to the shops at lunchtime, to the trip to the supermarket on
the way home from work are no longer a part of the consumer's daily routine. At the
same time, migration away from major cities in Western countries is seeing suburban
hubs and secondary cities experience increased expectations.
In grocery, the number of store trips is declining too, down from 4.4 visits per week,
to 2.8 in the US according to McKinsey research.
This combined with rising on-demand delivery services means the role of the
physical store needs to continued to be redefined, not just to weather the current
crisis but to ensure relevancy where those traditional pathways to purchase have
irrevocably changed.
In markets living in a post-pandemic landscape, consumer footfall patterns and
behaviours have changed as the ability to return to stores has returned, with
consumers looking to seek affirmation that a trip to a store or in a discretionary retail
space will be time well spent. For instance, consumers, particularly in China, are
doing research to make sure desired items are in stock and also checking on social
media to ensure that posting from a store will add social clout.
Sainsbury's
7
Redevelop flagship p rop os itions : Recons ider the role of local s tores : Facilitate omnichannel behaviours : Create s ocial confidence: Work to
Traditionally, brands have used flagship Where local stores may have in the past, Start to ensure stores are set up for in- make sure that stores are visible on
stores in major cities to elevate their been used for top-up shopping over the store fulfilment, create click-and-collect social media platforms so that people
brand propositions. As people move course of the week, people are or curbside collection strategies. can decide whether the visit is worth the
into more suburban locations, ensure increasingly using them as a means of Partner with other businesses on click journey. Huawei partnered with
that ranging, experiential and avoiding crowds at larger stores. Ensure and collect and use stock checking tools influencers to post vlogs of their store
convenience elements are built into that ranging reflects changing consumer to help people feel confident that their visits when it opened its flagship store in
these stores. Consumers in these areas behaviours, as Sainsbury's has done with trip to the stores will be a positive one. Shanghai.
have fewer entertainment options and, its Neighbourhood store format.
when circumstances improve are more
likely to want to return to stores.
8
Place re-making
As retailers fail and others exit underperforming stores, retailers will need to
scrutinise their store estates to ensure that they will be located in vibrant
shopping when they get to the other side of the current crisis.
In Manhattan, retail corridors have seen increases in available retail space ranging
from 6% to 67% since autumn 2019, according to the Real Estate Board of New York,
and on London's Oxford Street, key retailers such as Topshop and Debenhams
exiting will leave significant holes in the city's key shopping strip.
According to KPMG analysis, UK high streets could lose between 20-40% of their
retail offerings due to the accelerated shi to online commerce.
Some cities are being proactive around these shi s and investing money in making
sure that their destination shopping streets and precincts are fit for the future, with
Paris mayor Anne Hidalgo approving an EUR250m plan to revamp the Champs-
Élysées, turning the luxury shopping strip into an "extraordinary garden".
Architect Philippe Chiambaretta, whose firm PCA-Stream developed the plans said
of the estimated 100,000 pedestrians on the avenue each day, 72% were tourists and
22% work there. He said the Champs-Élysées had become a place that summed up
the problems faced by cities around the world, “pollution, the place of the car,
tourism and consumerism”, and needed to be redeveloped to be “ecological,
desirable and inclusive”.
PCA-Stream
9
Cons ider the s tore es tate with future Work to reimagine shopp ing Recons ider flagship retail s trategies : Focus on p op -up or flexible leas ing
behaviours in mind: As the pandemic p recincts : Lobby governments for Ensure that stores in secondary cities s trategies : Landlords will need to
continues to alter consumer behaviours investment into redeveloping retail are treated with the same level of ensure the vibrancy of retail precincts,
across many categories, consider what precincts into areas that people will respect as brand-building sites in major find novel ways of using space, focus on
impact working from home is having on still want to go to, even if fewer retailers cities. With less competition for empowering smaller brands and
footfall to your stores and what that will are present. Consider mixed-use and attention, ramping up energies in these entrepreneurs with short-term pop-up
mean in a hybrid working future, leisure spaces. cities are likely to have a larger impact. spaces.
alongside a reduction in tourism -
consider the profitability, size and
location with these things in mind.
10
Convenience
Convenience and time pressure are driving purchasing decisions for people
forced to stay close to home and families reach breaking point as they attempt
to juggle remote working with home schooling.
Convenience and proximity were highlighted as key trends in 2020's retail forecast
and they continue to rise in importance as the lifestyle shi s wrought by the
pandemic have made the desire for ease and convenience even more essential.
The combination of caring for children while maintaining remote jobs is causing
increased levels of stress for parents, particularly for mothers, who in a UK study
found mothers in two-parent households are only doing, on average, a third of the
uninterrupted work of fathers, against 60% prior to the pandemic. Businesses should
be looking to build strategies that help to alleviate some of the stress that people
are facing through making shopping journeys easy and convenient.
According to an Accenture global survey, 56% of consumers are shopping in
neighbourhood stores or buying more locally sourced products, with 79% and 84%
respectively planning to continue with this behaviour into the longer term.
Walmart
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Make it eas y: As consumers face Extend convenience into digital Des ign for s p eed: On the whole, Minimis e interaction: Invest in
increased levels of anxiety, create meal realms : Make life easier for consumers consumers do not want to linger for technology and strategies that help the
kits and partially-prepared meals that through enhancing opportunities around extended periods in stores, with consumer transact rapidly. Kerbside
reduce the cognitive load on families. subscription services, bundling and McKinsey's Periscope report finding collection and frictionless/mobile
Traditionally meal kit services have other repeat ordering methodologies to that organised and easy-to-navigate checkout are likely to become
focused on two-person households, but make delivery easier. Use AI to stores are even more appealing as increasingly important differentiators
the pandemic has seen increased understand order frequency around people look to spend less time for safety conscious consumers. Invest
demand from larger families, says Julie household basics, send gentle interacting with others. Focus on in mobile wayfinding that allows
Marchant-Houle, CEO of Marley Spoon, reminders when things are likely to be signage and pathways through the store consumers to upload shopping lists and
a US meal kit service. running low. that help consumers move quickly use their phones to guide them around
through retail spaces. the store.
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Supply chain and last mile
In 2021, companies will be navigating the new border challenges being posed by
Brexit, trading challenges between China and much of the west, alongside
inconsistent consumer demand driven by the pandemic and rising e-
commerce take-up. Retailers will need to ensure that they are managing their
supply chains in order to minimise markdown.
2020 challenged retail supply chains and 2021 looks to be no different, with reports
in early January that businesses are having a hard time transporting goods between
the UK and EU, due to increased paperwork and longer shipping times. This has
seen supermarkets tell customers that there's likely to be limited access to certain
products in the coming weeks and other businesses to pause selling products
between the UK and EU.
Similarly, businesses were overwhelmed in the run up to Christmas as last mile
services placed shipping restrictions on some retailers in order to manage demand
across their services.
As we move into 2021, consumers are likely to continue to place increased demand
on delivery services, with e-commerce spending expected to continue amid
continued lockdowns across Europe. However, these moves are likely to be
tempered with the waves of the pandemic with consumer spend remaining cautious
and confidence likely to align with how worried they are about their financial futures,
which means businesses will need to ensure that they are agile and aligned with
consumer demand in order to minimise overstocks.
Amazon
13
Inves t in infras tr ucture: Amazon Temp er exp ectations : As consumers Rationalis e ranging: Continuing from Near-s ourcing and on demand
recently announced the purchase of 11 expect increasingly rapid and free last year's forecast, focus on the hero manufactur ing: As global trading
new planes, a move that will lead to the delivery of product, reward consumers products that maximise profit for your becomes evermore complex with new
e-commerce giant operating 85 cargo for choosing slower delivery methods to business. Analyse consumer needs trading tariffs, particularly with China
planes by the end of 2021. As supply help regulate the pressure on last-mile based on consumers' new lifestyles. flexing its muscle internationally.
chains are increasingly strained, services. Work in advance to maintain supply of
businesses should look at opportunities these key products.
where they can exercise increased
control over their supply chains and last
mile delivery.
14
Experiential e-commerce
As pathways to purchase change, with e-commerce taking increasing share,
businesses will need to apply the experiential thinking they were rolling out
in physical retail stores to the digital sphere.
Over the past decade, retail has been refined in order to remove as much friction as
possible from the sales process, resulting in retail websites that are visually similar
and can be harder to differentiate from each other.
E-commerce took 27.9% of retail sales in 2020, with the steepest increases in online
uptake coming from emerging markets, the United Nations Conference on Trade and
Development found.
Prior to the pandemic, physical retail space was not only used as a sales channel,
but also as a tool for brand building, a site for experiences that surprise and delight
the consumer.
As stores become spaces that are less attractive locations to spend time in due to
consumer fear of infection and increased confidence shopping online, retailers will
need to ensure that they are creating small moments of joy through gamification
tools and elements of entertainment.
For consumers that have spent the past year becoming increasingly bored staying at
home, there's an opportunity for retailers to create more entertaining digital
propositions through playful website design, gamification tools and more
entertaining short-form video content.
Yeezy
15
Cons ider p layful webs ite des ign: Look to Build gamification elements : Build on the successful Tap into shor t-for m video trends : TikTok and
opportunities that will create moments of surprise and gamification strategies being built by the Chinese retail Instagram's Reels are driving significant engagement
entertainment around web design for consumers giants in other markets. Look at opportunities to among consumers, particularly among younger
discovering a brand, while still making it easy for those integrate into popular video games. cohorts. Ensure that you're reaching consumers on
wanting to transact quickly. Look to create movement these platforms, as well as applying similar approaches
and personality in product imagery, and personality on their own websites.
through product description. Look at ways of breaking
out from the traditional grid format.
16
Affordability
With the UN International Labour Organization predicting that half of the
world's 3.3bn global workforce are at risk of losing their livelihoods, businesses
will need to adapt to new consumer circumstances.
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Focus on p r ivate label: As consumers Unders tand where they're likely to be App reciate var iations on Don't neglect cons umer ethics and
face increased financial challenges, willing to trade up: For consumers that affordability: For consumers with values : While price is playing a more
ensure that opening price points are aren't facing the same level of financial higher levels of disposable income, but important role in consumer priorities at
keen and that these are communicated pressure but looking to save out of a who aren't able to spend that money on the moment, do not neglect
clearly to consumers. Make sure that lack of confidence, look at the areas dining out or on experiences, an sustainability and ethics in the process
the basic necessities are available at where they're likely to be willing to affordable dinner might be a meal kit of chasing lower prices. According to
these lower price points. trade convenience for savings, for created by a professional chef that they Accenture global research, 61% of
instance in the case of family meal deals can finish at home. Ensure price and consumers are making more
for stressed out parents that are product propositions are tailored to a sustainable and ethical purchases and
juggling home-schooling and working retailer's catchment area. 89% plan to do so a er the pandemic. In
from home. In apparel, trade ups may the same survey, 54% are shopping
occur when products are able to be more cost consciously and are likely to
justified for multiple use cases - for continue to do so.
instance comfortable dresses that work
as easily at home as in a more
professional environment.
18
Good nance
As retailers amp up post-purchase payment strategies, rising numbers of cash-
strapped consumers will mean that businesses need to lend responsibly and
prioritise nancial education.
In the UK, Klarna claimed that almost 40% of all UK non-food shopping was spent
using its services over the Christmas period, representing a total of £2.3bn in spend.
The majority of users are in the young Millennial and Gen Z demographic and this is
the group of consumers that has been worst hit by the shi s taking place as a result
of the pandemic and ensuing recession. Some 54% of people in the US aged 18-29 say
that they or someone in their household had a salary reduction or lost their job as a
result of the pandemic.
Macro patterns around consumption mean that there's a tremendous opportunity
for buy-now-pay-later services, particularly as e-commerce takes channel share,
allowing consumers the ability to purchase multiple sizes or styles to ensure that
they are purchasing the correct product. Similarly as consumers look to move to a
less but better mentality, buy now pay later services allow them the opportunity to
spread out the cost of a higher-value item, rather than buying multiple items at a
lower price point.
However, a backlash against these kinds of services is emerging as operators in the
space face criticism for glib messaging that encourages people to take on increased
debt. In China, JD.com was forced to apologise a er an ad for its micro-credit
services was deemed to be insensitive to people on low incomes. In the UK, Klarna
faced a ban on some of its ads a er the Advertising Standards Agency deemed them Klarna
"irresponsible" for encouraging people to boost their mood through buying
products and using deferred payments.
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Ens ure debt levels are manageable: In Create buffers to slow s p ending: Financial education: According to the Tone of voice: Treat buy-now-pay-later
China, Ant Financial has reduced the Amazon has been promoting its top-up OECD young adults have amongst the programmes with the same level of
credit limit for young users of its Huabei service on its site as a means of helping lowest levels of financial literacy. Build gravitas as offering traditional credit and
credit card as part of efforts to promote people keep track of their spending. As products and propositions that help store cards. In a recessionary market,
"rational" spending habits. Focus on transactions becomes increasingly them build towards better decision legislation around these services is
ensuring consumers are not spending frictionless, it's important to help create making. likely. Do not create an environment that
more than they can afford to repay. barriers for those who may need it. will encourage lawmakers to clamp
Klarna launched the KlarnaSense down on bad behaviours.
programme to encourage users of its
service to ask themselves: Do I love it?
Will I use it? Is it worth it?
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Little luxuries
After a year of managing the pandemic, consumers are facing emotional fatigue
and are looking for moments of joy. For consumers that are not facing economic
hardship, they will be looking for products that pamper and provide a moment
of escapism or nostalgia for pre-Covid times.
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Focus on p leas ure: With news cycles Attainable as p iration: Aspirational New p roduct p r ior ities : With life set New brand values : Consumers buying
posting unrelentingly negative news luxury consumers are finding new to remain at home for the immediate into new luxury codes are seeking
stories, people are seeking moments of routes into purchasing luxury products - future, ensure that you're offering values that best represent the emerging
escapism through products that where previously entry level brand comfort and luxury in the product cultural shi s around inclusivity and
transport them either back into their access was via skincare or fragrance, categories that are likely to see ethics. In August, Telfar launched the
pre-pandemic lives or somewhere else. resale is broadening access to luxury continued traction. As people accept the Bag Security drop where it would offer
Tap into moments where you can bring brands to new consumers. Embrace the move to working at home as being more its Shopping Bag for pre-orders for 24
some of those old rituals back to life secondhand luxury consumer through permanent, they're likely to want to hours to prevent resale sites selling the
(the daily trip to the coffee shop) or own resale platforms and create start investing more in home offices, as popular bag for three-times the original
focus on luxury sensorial moments that opportunities to encourage consumers well as so furnishings around the price. Founder Telfar Clements said:
are purely about bringing the consumer home. "We are not about hype and scarcity. The
joy, for instance through skincare or whole point of our bag is accessibility
scent. and community.”
22
Reducing waste
The rise in e-commerce during 2021 has led to increasing volumes of packaging
being used. With consumers becoming increasingly aware of the urgency of the
climate crisis they will be looking for businesses to take responsible (and safe)
steps to reduce the volume of waste produced.
Immediate safety has been prioritised through the pandemic, which has led to
significant upli s in the cardboard packaging used in e-commerce. China generated
9.4m tonnes of packaging waste in 2018, Greenpeace said, projecting that the amount
could rise to 41m tonnes by 2025, the same as all of the waste produced by Japan in a
year. In the West, the US reported a 9% increase in the kind of corrugated cardboard
used in e-commerce packaging in March 2020 against the same month of the last
year.
Similarly burgeoning shi s that were taking place before the pandemic, with
consumers starting to consider reusable cups and packaging, for instance when
purchasing a coffee, stalled as both companies and consumers moved to minimise
the potential of contamination.
Waste is also being produced in different ways, with less than half the items
returned sold at full price, and a quarter not being able to be sold again at all. With
returns rates increasing on the back of deeper e-commerce penetration, and
consumers buying more items with the intention of trying on and sending back,
retailers will need to build and continue to enhance solutions that allow consumers
to make the right choice the first time.
Good Club
E-commerce waste is highly visible to consumers and as the number of orders stack
up, they're likely to notice and start to agitate for change. But businesses should
look across their supply chains for opportunities to reduce resource use as
consumers become increasingly environmentally savvy.
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Tes t reus able packaging s olutions : Focus on making packaging more Continue to reward good behaviours : Cons ider lockers : As click and collect
Work with businesses in the space such s us tainable: H&M has begun testing a Businesses, particularly cafes, had lockers gain in popularity, consider
as Repack and LimeLoop to build paper packaging solution in some of the started to reward consumers with different solutions around packaging, in
solutions that will allow consumers to brands in its stable and Asos committed discounts when they brought in their many cases large boxes are
return packaging rather than disposing to using 90% of recycled content in its own coffee cups before the pandemic inconvenient for consumers taking items
of it. Asos is set to start trialling garment and mailing bags in 2020. began. Continue to reward people for home from these locations.
returnable packaging in 2021. Look at carrying cups, even if they can't be used
strategies being employed by grocery again yet to ensure that these good
retailer GoodClub to help manage habits are not lost.
reverse logistics for packaging.
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Empowering communities
People witness the impact of of job losses and recession in their communities
rst, but recessions are also a good time for businesses to launch, with the
headwinds of the economic climate making them nimble and more resilient
than those founded in easier economic periods.
In the UK, 177,000 retail jobs were lost in 2020, according to the Centre for Retail
Research, while in the US, the retail sector has lost 400,000 jobs since the start of the
pandemic, the Bureau of Labor reported in January.
In December, in the US, 140,000 jobs were lost in December and all of them were
held by women, with people in traditionally marginalised groups overrepresented
by the job losses.
One in four women in the US are considering downshi ing their careers or leaving
the workforce entirely because of the impact of Covid-19, according to a new report.
As retailers work to rationalise retail footprints, communities will be le to figure
out to navigate the impact on sales taxes and employment.
Businesses exiting towns and companies managing retail space should work to
minimise the collateral damage from store closures by working to help redeploy
workers where possible, or empower them to start their own businesses, through
strategies that might include subsidised retail space in the form of pop-ups.
Foot Locker
25
Supp or t local op erators : As Hire and develop locally: Build Expand outwards : Invest in the Re-skill workforces : As stores close,
consumers focus their energies on programmes that hire talent locally, wellbeing of communities through help staff learn new skills they will
bolstering their own local communities, create pathways for these staff upward supporting local sports, parks and need to be employable into the future.
businesses will need to show that they through the business and work with education programmes. At Nike's latest Create pathways into other parts of the
care and are supporting those areas local talent to create in-store community store in Watts, it allocates company, such as e-commerce.
through supplier inclusion. Work with experiential elements. In Compton, LA, paid volunteer hours for employees to
partners like the 15 Percent Pledge to Foot Locker has launched a community- give back and is supporting local
help diversify supplier bases. Celebrate focused store, committing to recruit organisations and creatives through the
local suppliers with in-store messaging talent within a five-mile radius and store.
and marketing strategies. Build through celebrating and promoting a
accelerators, use underutilised retail number of local brands with exclusive
space to support them and create products.
novelty through pop ups.
26
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and What's Next?
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