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03

• Price of the Favourite (short favourites, potential to win by a street)

Anyway, after being stung on a few occasions where he'd gone short and
the distances make-up was high, he'd put it down to connections making
killings at his expense. He figured they were briefing jockeys not simply "to
do enough to win", but to keep the pedal down until after the winning post
and increase the winning distance as much as they were able.
THE
By his reckoning the coup worked as follows. A trainer has a runner far
superior to its rivals, a situation however that hardly ever goes unnoticed, so
the odds offered reflect this fact and it is very heavily odds-on. In years past,
perhaps one way to make a killing was to 'stop' the horse and to get plenty
down on the second favourite. This is fraught with dangers though - will the
SOLIDUS
second favourite win? - there is also an evidence trail of connections money
supporting another runner. An alternative is to feed a bookie with the
information that the horse is virtually unbeatable ~ for a fee ~ allowing him
to offer the other runners at tempting odds and to make sure he's always
shortest on the favourite. Involving others though is simply another link in
the chain that could break the whole scam. Serialisation of the book by Davey Towey
But spread-betting distances could be manna from heaven for the gambling
explaining his innovative, ground-breaking
trainer. A low key flat meeting on good to firm can often have a six-race approach evaluating racetrack performances
distances quote of around 7 or 8 lengths. If we buy that quote, in our race by
instructing the jockey to go flat-out, we can try to equal or even exceed the Foreword
quote for the whole meeting in a single race. Every length win in the other
races is then money in our pockets. Such a tactic is all above board. No
stopping the horse, far from it. So why attempt a gamble on prohibitively
short odds when a spread bet can return a far better, and legal, return?
Year Races AvRacDist AvOdds AvField AvWinDist
T he Solidus system of analysis is not a book aimed at the uninitiated
but should hopefully add a new dimension to the assessment of
distance, going, weight and class. Primarily for the racing
professional, it should also appeal to advanced form students.
In a strange way his 1993 98 8.35 0.33 5.35 3.87
reasoning has a ring of 1994 67 8.00 0.35 6.18 4.34
Davey has adopted a more precise scientific approach to his subject and in
plausibility to it, albeit 1995 108 8.60 0.34 5.62 3.13 his book gives a unique breakdown on the assessment of racecourses. He
driven by a man looking to 1996 106 7.98 0.33 5.87 3.55 brings into his analysis the easiness and difficulty of both Flat and National
1997 127 8.41 0.33 6.80 3.56 Hunt courses and in particular gives a thorough explanation as to why a high
find a get-out clause. I'd 1998 128 7.95 0.32 3.77
6.32
been meaning to dive into 124 8.43
percentage of falls occur on what many would consider 'easier courses'.
1999 0.31 6.60 3.59
the results database to see 2000 125 8.34 0.34 6.51 2.58
the evidence of this for 2001 123 8.33 0.32 7.39 3.42 Certain courses are cited as providing the toughest tests but these do not
2002 105 7.91 0.34 6.71 3.52 necessarily provide the most falls.
some time, the arrival of
the 2002 results nudged me into action. A breakdown of the last ten years
flat, for all races where the favourite was 1/2 or shorter is shown. One of the most enlightening features are the unique Rates Tables. They
Far from conclusive proof, or even a hint of any kind of skulduggery I think provide very accurate speed figures coupled with a class rating which
you'll agree. Another conspiracy theory bites the dust? enables the reader to bring into play the divergencies between horses racing

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in different grades, for instance, the likely outcome of a 0-70 handicapper The vast majority of punters do not know the answers to these questions yet
running in a 0-100 handicap. they 'invest' many hundreds of thousands of pounds daily. In the same way
that it is essential knowledge for a trainer in maximising his chances of
For those scouring the bloodstock sales in search of a prospective hurdler success, the punter must have a method of quantifying the differences
from the Flat, Davey produces a useful scale of comparative distances between courses and distances if he wants to show a profit from his betting.
between Flat and National Hunt which helps determine the stamina
capabilities of the new recruit. The book includes some graphs to enforce some of the ideas. Don't drop the
book in horror, the ideas are new and a graph helps visually. You don't have
Hopefully the chapter on value will help point the punter in the right to be Einstein to understand the graphs. You probably can interpret form far
direction to where opportunities are more favourable. His rules on making better than he could so read the text because all the important points are
betting pay should prove an ally in the battle against the old enemy. discussed and illustrated with examples. The graphs are not there to be
followed slavishly when working out the form. They are there to drive home
Davey's painstaking research knocks many old theories on the head, but the points that courses vary so much_and that there is an underlying scheme
once absorbed should help to cut many a corner. of things not immediately apparent.

Tony Elves The horse that wins is not necessarily the best horse in the race, the horse
Newmarket correspondent, Sporting Life that wins is the one that has the most factors in its favour on the day.

Introduction
7 have seen flowers come in stony places
Welcome to 'The Solidus'. This system of analysis will show you how form And kind things done by men with ugly faces
can be compared from one course to another over any distance and on an And the gold cup won by the worst horse at the races
types of going. The method identifies the fastest horse in a race and also So I trust, too!'
shows how the factors that most influence the outcome of a race can be John Masefield
quantified.
PACE
Also included in a section devoted to value, are tips on how to get the best
odds and a new approach to each-way and multiple betting that will save the When horses race over a longer trip, the pace of the race in yards-per-second
reader the cost of this book many times over. is slower. The pace that races are run at is the most revealing piece of
information available. From it, the book will show how all the following
The following are daily imponderables faced by everyone from punters to information can be obtained:
racing journalists alike and also to a lesser extent trainers and jockeys:
[1] Accurate speed ratings can be calculated from it.
6f Thirsk: 'behind early, made steady progress, led last few strides.'
Will it find Salisbury's 5 furlongs too sharp? [2] An exact figure for pound/length can be arrived at.

7f Edinburgh: 'led one furlong out, no extra close home.' [3] Courses and distances can be compared against each other.
What are the chances of it staying 1 mile at Redcar?
[4] An average time for any distance can be calculated.
2m 1 lOy Cheltenham: 'weakened approaching the last fence, no extra.'
What are the chances of it staying 2m2f at Devon & A'.vr/r/ ' [5] Flat form can be compared with National Hunt form.

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[6] The longest distance over which a horse can race effectively can be
calculated. weight (pounds/length)

[7] The effect of running horses in a different class.

Every course and distance in the country has been classified from A to E.
An A classification is the easiest and therefore is the fastest.
E classifications are the stiffest tests of stamina and are therefore the
slowest.

The fastest courses; for instance: 5 furlongs at Epsom, will be classified as

A, whilst the most testing at 5 furlongs, such as Beverley and Pontefract,
will be classified as E. These classifications can be looked up in the
'Classification of Flat courses' chapter later in this book.

Pounds/length will vary according to the classification; it can he read o i l i h r

charts in the section: 'The Classifications'. The vertical axis of the charts
represents weight per length (in pounds).

The horizontal axis represents distance (in furlongs). By using cither ol'lln. 4
charts -Flat courses: 3f to 1m (opposite) or 51"to 101", it can be seen t h a i I he
intersection of 3.3 pounds per length and 5 furlongs corresponds to the ( '
band. The C band is the average for that distance.

On an average (C) Flat course, the following distances show poundl/lengthl

5f 3.3 pounds/length
6f 3.1 pounds/length
7f 2.9 pounds/length
1 mile 2.7 pounds/length
lOf 2.2 pounds/length
12f 1.8 pounds/length
14f 1.4 pounds/length
2 miles 0.9 pounds/length

In National Hunt racing, the fastest courses; for instance: all distances at
Newton Abbot, will be classified as A, whilst the most testing; for instance:
all distances at Newcastle, will be classified as E.

These classifications can be looked up in our 'Classification of National

Hunt courses' chapter later on.

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By using the chart - 'National Hunt courses Im4f to 2m6f later in the book weight (pounds/length)
and reprinted on page 13 of this issue it can be seen that the intersection of *-* bO NJ to CO to | > O N f r v t s 3 N 3 C i 3 f M C * 3 O 3 C * 2 C O W C O
t o ^ w c o r f f c - b t g i ^ i o p c o CO W **• W <J3 --3
2.6 pounds per length and 2 miles corresponds to the C band.

On an average (C) National Hunt course, the following distances show

pounds/length:

2 miles 2.6 pounds/length This scale is significantly

2m4f 2.2 pounds/length different from other books on
3 miles 1.7 pounds/length the subject.
3m4f 1.3 pounds/length These figures have been
4 miles 0.8 pounds/length verified by a leading
4m4f 0.4 pounds/length National Hunt trainer.

To make a comparison between courses, simply draw a horizontal line along

the chart from the course and distance classification you are using. Where
the horizontal line crosses the other bands, the distances are equivalent.

From the 'Classification of Flat courses' chapter:

Pontefract = 5fE.
Using the: 'Flat courses 3f to 1m' chart (previous page): a nori/onla! line
from the E band at 5f is equivalent to the C band at 61" and the A band jusl
short of 7f at about 6fl 80y.

If a horse has shown good form at 5f at Pontefract, then il is l i k e l y ID

it at a 6fC classification; for instance: Newmarket's 6l'and w i l l nol be
unduly troubled by Chepstow's 7fl6y with its' A classification.

Conversely, a horse showing good form at a 7fl6yA classification, such as

Chepstow, is likely to repeat the performance over 5f at Ponte tract as
mentioned, or the 5fl61y trip at Bath, which has a D classification.

From the 'Classification of National Hunt courses' chapter: All Hexhain

hurdles are E classifications. In a 2 mile Hexham hurdle, a horse may only
stay as far as Im6f.

By reading off what a lm6fE classification is equivalent to, it can be seen

that an equivalent trip is a 2mlf course with an A classification, for example:
Hereford's 2mlfA. So the horse can stay when racing at an easier course.

The classifications of the distances at a particular course very often differ

considerably, this is due to changes in conformation along the course:

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for example; the 12flOy Derby distance at Epsom is given a D classification, weight (pounds/length)
which is a stiff test of stamina, whereas the 5 furlong course there, is the
fastest in the world and has an A classification. <3S -3 00 <D t O W ^ C J " ® " - 3
^ 0
^

On the charts:
the outer two bands on each side are used for extremes of going.

• When it is fast,
a course and distance classification of A becomes AI.
• When it is hard,
a course and distance classification of A becomes A2.
• When it is yielding,
a course and distance classification of E becomes E|.
• When it is heavy,
a course and distance classification of E becomes £2.

This is dealt with in much more detail in the chapter: 'Going'.

With this system you can compare any course for which you can give a
classification.

If for some reason there is a difference of opinion as lo the classification ol'a

course and distance - no problem, use your own classification and (hen use
the chart as described.

Average race times

When a race distance at a particular course has been run a sufficient number
of times we can obtain a standard time. This needs to take into account
adjustments for the weight carried. On the Flat the standard race times are
adjusted to 9 stones and National Hunt races to 12 stones.

If all the standard times for each distance are totalled, then an average taken
of the total, we get a very interesting result which can be seen on the graph:
'Average of all standard race times', printed at the top of page 14.

It relates to the Flat, National Hunt is similar and is discussed later. The
graph demonstrates a straight line, which shows a linear relationship
between race times and race distances.

This is a very useful graph for several reasons which I shall discuss
throughout this section.

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Average Race Times, 5 to 20 furlongs It is already believed by the majority of judges that 1 pound = 1 length at 2
miles and 3 pounds = 1 length at sprint distances. .

My statistics suggest that 3.3 pounds = 1 length over an average 5 furlongs.

Therefore 3.3 •*- 3.5 = 0.94, •

so that 0.94 pounds = 1 length over an average 2 miles.

Clearly over a stiff 5 furlongs such as at Pontefract, weight will have a

greater effect than on a lightning fast Epsom 5 furlongs.

With reference to the charts and the 'Classifications of Flat courses' chapter,
it can be seen that Pontefract with its 5fE classification will be 3.1 pounds/
Average of all standard race times for distances of 5 f to 20f on the flat length and Epsom with its 5fA classification will be 3.5 pounds/length.

On a faster track, it takes more weight to produce the same effect.

5f 6f 7f 1m 9f lOf llf 12f 13f 14f 15f 2m 17f 18f 19f 20f
distance
If the graph: 'Average of all standard race times' (opposite) is studied more
closely it can be seen that what should be a perfectly straight line is actually
Firstly, it can be used to predict average race times for those 'in between' a very shallow curve.
distances:
This is partly due to the influence of a concentrated breeding effort at
For example; distances of about 1 mile and also partly due to the diminished weight
13 furlongs for which there would otherwise be insufTicicnl d;ila. carrying ability of the Flat horse at longer distances. Allowance has been
made for these factors. |
The average for all 5 furlong races is 58.4 seconds.
Next month our Solidus serialisation continues with;
The average for all 2 mile (Flat) races is 204.8 seconds. Maximum distances
Glancing at the charts, you will notice that the bands converge at a point somewhere past the
204.8-58.4 = 3.5 end. It is safe to assume that the bands continue in straight line fashion for a short way beyond
the end of the charts. The point of convergence of the bands occurs at a distance of 20 furlongs
It takes on average 3.5 times as long to complete a 2 mile race than it takes 88 yards for the Flat and 39 furlongs and 77 yards for National Hunt.
to complete a 5 furlong race. The Solidus is still available, but only at High Stakes bookstore [020 74301021]

It is reasonable to assume that the weight carried by the horse at those Send SMARTsig
distances will have a similar relationship;
GIVE US YOUR simple
system for
• if 1 pound is removed from the horse so that it carries 8st 131b,
publication!
• it follows that it will have 3.5 times as much effect at 2 miles than at A KISS (or even those
5 furlongs. more complex)

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Serialisation of the book by Davey Towey on a negative scale with A band more negative than E band which is as we
would expect because, on the positive scale, A band is more positive than E
explaining his innovative, ground-breaking band.
approach evaluating racetrack performances
Now we arrive at a conclusion that will probably rock the odd boat or two:

Remember that average race times for the Flat are adjusted to 9 stone.
Therefore, to produce extra performance beyond 20 furlongs and 88 yards,
weight must be removed from the horse.
THE Meaning that at this distance, 9 stone should be the top-weight

I would suggest that:

SOLIBUS At 2m
18f
20f
22f
the top-weight should be lOst
9st71b
9st
8st71b

It is hardly surprising therefore just how great an advantage lightly weighted

horses have in long distance races. The advantage to the light-weights
increases even more when conditions underfoot become testing.
THE SOLIDUS serialisation [part 2]
Davey Towey Examination of the statistics of long distance races - 2m2f and over,
confirms that horses at the top of the handicap are, in general,
disadvantaged.
Maximum distances
It has been found through years of experience what weight a Flat horse

G lancing at the charts, three of which were printed in last month's

extract, you will notice that the bands converge at a point
somewhere past the end. It is safe to assume that the bands continue
in straight line fashion for a short way beyond the end of the charts. The
should be expected to carry. The weight-for-age scale took this a stage
further. It is because the vast majority of racing takes place at shorter
distances that statistics for these distances have yielded these scales.
point of convergence of the bands occurs at a distance of 20 furlongs 88
yards for the Flat and 39 furlongs and 77 yards for National Hunt. We therefore have a very good idea of the weight that should be carried at
short distances. It has then been assumed that, providing the distance is not
The convergence points occur where the vertical axis = Nil pounds/length. too far, then the same weight limits win apply at longer distances. To my
knowledge, the above figures are the first proof so far of what the limits
This is no coincidence - to have convergence at any other point would be a should be.
nonsense because it would mean that at some distances, the carrying of extra
weight would produce a faster time. Standard course times have, sensibly, been normalised to 9 stones. This is
approximately the average weight carried and therefore the fulcrum around
As a check that there is nothing strange happening; if we look at what which pounds per length are added and subtracted.
happens beyond the convergence point: after the bands cross over, they are

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If it is accepted then, that 9 stones is the normal weight at shorter distances, By using the graph below.- 'Pounds/length for Flat and National Hunt
then it follows that this should be the top weight at 20.4 furlongs. races', the effect of weight can be compared between Flat and National Hunt
races:
Incidentally, it does not matter whether standard course times are
normalised to 9 stones or another weight, the convergence point is the same.
Pounds /length for flat & NH races
This is important because I am going to compare the Flat against National
Hunt, where standard course times are normalised to 12 stones.

As stated, the convergence point of National Hunt races is 39.35 furlongs.

This is different from the Flat because the pace of the races is slower. The N
\\ -\
F
Bounds / k ngth ford at& NH r ces
pace of the race is slower because there are obstacles to be jumped and also show > corr para tivec istanrpsl
_c x ^~\
National Hunt horses are not as precociously bred as Flat horses. c
N
\
u \
\ i»
\
This provides the answer to the following question: "§ -> - \
^ "
1 15. \ '--.,
\ "*"- \
Why is it, that horses who may not stay a yard over, say, 12 furlongs on the
\
Flat, can win at 3 miles over hurdles? V
\

NV \ ^_

The answer is simply: the slower pace that hurdle races are run at. A horse 0 2 4 6 1m 10 12 14 2m 18 20 22 3m 26 28 30 4m 34 36 38 5m

distance
can run less fast for a longer time.

The convergence point is the limit that can be achieved by the average horse
for the pace of the racing. 1 pound/length is just over 2 miles on the Flat and nearly 4 miles over the
jumps.
By taking the ratio of the National Hunt and Flat convergence points:
The information above can be read from the same graph:
39.35-20.4= 1.9
I mile to 9 furlongs on the Flat, is equivalent to 2 miles in a National Hunt
This is saying something very important: race.

An average Flat horse will be able to sustain the pace of which the average For a Flat horse to compete against the very best hurdlers at 2 miles, then it
hurdler is capable, for a distance of 1.9 times its optimum distance on the could either:
Flat.
I1 | be top notch at 1 mile to 9 furlongs.
Here are examples for some standard hurdle distances: These animals usually have a breeding career ahead of them and are
therefore not normally risked over the sticks,
1m to 9f on the Flat is equivalent to 2m over hurdles
1 Of to 1 If Flat 2m4f hurdles
12fto 13f Flat 3m hurdles
14f to 15f Flat 3m4f hurdles 121 have less class but able to stay further on the Flat; for example: a top
class handicapper at distances of 10 furlongs to 11 furlongs.

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Obviously there are always exceptions to the rule, but on average it is true So near and yet so far
and the statistics confirm the theory.
Flat courses have supplied us with very accurate distance measurements
This explanation is, what I believe, the answer to the puzzling question of down to the nearest yard. The same attention to detail is eagerly awaited
why a horse who only stays so far on the Flat, stays many furlongs further from the National Hunt fraternity. The National Hunt distances currently
over the sticks. available are measured to an accuracy of the nearest 110 yards. This means
that a distance can be 55 yards longer or shorter than stated. When
The convergence point for National Hunt races exceeds the longest distance comparing two courses, the difference can therefore add up to 110 yards.
(4m4f) by more than 3 furlongs and far exceeds the maximum hurdle race
distance. When both hurdle race distance and chase race distance at the same course
are the same figure and where there is nothing unusual to explain this, how
The average weight carried in National Hunt races is about 11st 31bs. In can both be accurate?
some respects it would have made more sense to have normalised the
standard course times to this weight. It can be shown with some basic arithmetic, that a venue with a
circumference of 10 furlongs and a width of just 10 yards on the inner
However a round number such as 11st would be a neater number to use. It is course, will result in an extra distance on the outer course of at least 100
a straightforward task to make the adjustments, if time-consuming. yards for races over 2m, 125 yards for 2m4f and 150 yards for 3m.

Using 11st 31b as the average weight, it follows that this should be the top- To answer my own question: both distances can be accurate if the starts are
weight if there was such a thing as a 39 furlong race. It would then follow staggered by the appropriate amount. How confident can one be that this is
that: 12st be made the top-weight for all 4m4f races. done accurately, if the courses are only measured to an approximate figure
in the first place?
Pace is the reason that 2m4f horses stay the 4m4f Grand National distance.
Before the fences were made easier, the pace of the race used to be steady, It can be seen from the graph: 'Average of all standard race times' that an
giving the 2m4f horses every chance of lasting out the trip. The faster pace the points lie very close to the line. I produced the same graphs for National
now better suits the three-milers. Hunt races, one for chases and another for hurdles. There was again in both
cases, a straight line, but the points deviated above and below it by a far
Pace is also the reason that the non-stayers get found out at the Cheltenham greater amount. This strongly suggests that the distances are not accurate.
Festival. The Festival is the Royal Ascot of National Hunt. The jockeys (and
everyone else) get such a buzz, that the races can be run at a furious pace. Interestingly, the biggest deviation occurred at the distance of 3 miles for
Horses that have won at Cheltenham previously, but not at the Festival can both graphs. Of the 28 courses involved at this distance, only 5 were
even be found out. common to both. When these 5 were removed, it made no improvement.

When the pace is strong, the jumpers must almost be foot-perfect at the The 3 mile deviation was approximately: plus 3.7 seconds in both cases,
obstacles. Meeting them on the wrong stride leaves precious little time for suggesting that either: all 3 mile races are really 3 miles 60 yards, or more
adjustments. Of course the professionals know that the big races (Flat or likely, a few are considerably longer.
National Hunt) are true tests and consequently doubtful stayers will be held
up to get the trip. On average a jumper will cover 110 yards in about 7 seconds. This is an age
when watching the 'business end of a race'. It is of no help to anyone to
It still requires good judgement from the jockey as to how fast the pace of have such inaccuracies, least of all the connections of the horse who failed
the race really is. to last home that extra half a furlong.

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The going The punier is the loser because he does not know this and why should he be
cxpcclecl to because it is so illogical.
'Much to-ing undfro-ing, yes-ing and no-ing
but nothing doing with the going'. The breeding of a National Hunt horse has given it different characteristics.
It is generally larger and more robust. It is therefore better suited to the
The three greatest factors which affect the performance of a fit horse are sol'ler conditions of the winter sport due to its' strength and the size of its'
distance, weight and going. Flat racecourses have now supplied us with race feet. When selecting a Flat horse to race over the sticks it is better to choose
distances measured accurately in furlongs and yards. Every racecourse's one with a suitable conformation and bear in mind also the observations on
clerk of scales goes to considerable trouble to ensure that every horse carries optimum distance in the chapter: 'Maximum distances'.
the correct weight. This leaves the question of the going.
Trainers have to constantly take issue with some racecourses concerning
The descriptions of the going given by some courses simply cannot be relied watering of the course. Watering has been known to continue whilst it is
on to be anything more than a rough approximation. actually raining because the ground staff have been told to water until a
certain time. Whilst watering, a prevailing cross-wind can blow the water
The going is a crucial performance factor for the majority of horses. What that is supposed to land on one half of the course onto the other resulting in
would people think if the form of a horse read: Won by 1 length. Weight a faster side of the course.
carried, approximately 9 stones?
There are arguments for and against watering.
The best way to assess the going is to see for yourself. The racegoer
obviously can assess this better than the betting shop punter who needs the The majority would probably say 'do a job properly - or not at all'. You can
meeting to be televised and must watch a race prior to the one he is be pretty sure that there is a bookmaker's representative present when there
interested in. Seeing for oneself is not practical when entries and is watering taking place.
declarations are being made. One must rely on information supplied by the
racecourse. The going description is very brief and does not impart the full story, so
every effort must be made to water evenly. Most racecourses do an
If anyone is sceptical about the variations that regularly occur, it is a simple absolutely first class job, the trainers know who they are, have every faith in
matter to check the official going with the going corrections published a them and in return give them their fullest support.
couple of days later in the Sporting Life and weekly in the Sporting Life
Weekender. Remember that the form printed next to the name of the horse There is so much money at stake in horseracing that its' problems become
in any sporting paper is the official going. Going corrections also appear magnified. Magnification usually improves vision. When other sports'
weekly in Raceform Update. problems come under the magnifying lens, the solutions seem to be spotted
and dealt with quicker.
The official description of the going will vary according to whether the
meeting is Flat or National Hunt. Good going for a National Hunt meeting There has been a tendency for the establishment and others to collectively
will be described as soft for its Flat counterpart and similarly, hard going don their rose-tinted spectacles. When everything in the park does actually
over the sticks would be described as good to firm on the Flat. This come up roses, it will happen because of the anonymous, everyday hard
obviously makes a nonsense of penetrometer readings. work of the gardeners.

It is natural to assess a Flat horse that is relatively inexperienced over the If a fun cross-section of the sport had permanent seats at the highest
sticks, according to its' form on the Flat. If the going descriptions vary for decision-making and regulatory level (if separate), then surely this would
both codes, the result is confusion. improve matters and restore confidence.

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When jockeys report the state of the ground to the connections after the race By using the categories
they use words such as fast, on top, dead, tacky etc. These are accurate suggested above with the
descriptions necessary to the professionals concerned to fill the gap. going corrections published in
the Sporting press, we have an
The author proposes more categories which would hopefully encourage accurate slate of the ground.
greater accuracy. These are:
Note the going (after going
Hard corrections) in a diary. For
Firm more information on going
Fast corrections, see the chapter:
y The top jockeys are always in constant demand^/
Good to fast 'Speed Ratings'.
Good
Good to yielding Using the charts with going corrections.
Yielding
Yielding to soft Each course and distance has been classified on good going. The ten types
of going have been grouped into five bands. It can be seen from the table
Soft
above that good going resides in Band 3.
Heavy
In the 'Classification of courses' section, all the course and distances have
been classified on good going.
Going Going Correction Band
To see how variations in going can shift the course and distance
Hard subtract 0.8 sees/furlong from a/b figure 1
classifications up or down, refer to the table below. Five furlongs is used as
Firm 0.6 1
the example:
Fast 0.4 2
Good to fast 0.2 2
5fA on going band 1 becomes 5fA2
5fA 2 5fA!
Good Nil 3
5fA 3 5fA
5fA 4 5fB
Good to yielding add 0.3 sees/furlong to a/b figure 3
5fA 5 5fC
Yielding 0.6 4
Yielding to soft 0.9 4
5 fB on going band 1 becomes 5fA;
Soft 1,2 5
5fB 2 5fA
Heavy 1.5 5
5fB 3 5fB
5fB 4 5fC
The going correction table 5fB 5 5fD

5fC on going band 1 becomes 5fA

In the table above the 'a' figure is the time in seconds slower than 5fC 2 5fB
the standard 5f€ 3 5fC
the 'b' figure is the time in seconds quicker than 5tC 4 5fD
the standard 5fC 5 5ffi

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5fD on going band 1 becomes 5fB

5fD 2 5fC
5£D 3 5fD
5fD 4 5fE
5£D 5 5fE]
5fE on going band 1 becomes 5fC
5fE 2 5fD
5fE 3 5fE
5fE 4 5fE,
5fE 5 5fE2

Next month our serialisation of Davey Towey's The Solidus continues with
The effect of going on the classifications
The majority of horses perform best on a certain type or a certain range of Reporting on the month-by-month progress over the
ground conditions. This is largely due to the horse's action, soundness in leg current jumps campaign of several commercial
joints and even the size of its feet. By looking at a horse's past horses-to-follow lists - and the "free" list of horses
achievements, an idea of the type of going it prefers, can be formed. from www.sportinglife.com

HORSES-TO-FOLLOW COMPARISONS
SMARTsig results-on-disk Terry Collins

The only limit is your imagination

IO seasons NH (1992/3-2001/02)
C ontinuing the monitoring of a selection of those commercial horses-
to-lbllow lists for the current National Hunt season. For our research
purposes for monitoring it will run from 1st November and will end
after the Atthcraces Gold Cup is run in 2003.
& 1C seasons Flat (1993-2002) The lists being followed are as follows;
PC comma separated text files on CD only £35 post paid per season.
One Jump Ahead (£4.99)
SAVE!
purchase any 5 seasons or more at the one time and qualify for
20% discount (5 seasons @ £140 post paid - 10 seasons @ £280 etc.)
The Sun Guide to the Jumps (£4.99)

Only available through SMARTsig, PO Box 44, Hayle. TR27 6YH Freehies (£0!)
Credit/debit cards v phone/fax 0845 644 6712 or via secure
internet card transactions by following the links from Timefarm (£5.95)
www.smartsig.com Time form was added after the start of our monitoring, but the results have
been backdated to allow a straightforward comparison with the others.

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found in Band 5. 5fE2 can only be regarded as equivalent to some of the

above distances when ground conditions suit.

It cannot be equivalent to ImAi, because this is what a 1mA classification

THE becomes on fast ground, nor a lm80yA2, because this is what a ImSOyA
classification becomes on hard ground. So this leaves six others. One other
can also be eliminated. The reason why is best illustrated with examples:

SOLIDUS
Part 3 of our serialisation of the book by
Davey Towey explaining his innovative,
ground-breaking approach evaluating
racetrack performances
The effect of going on the classifications continued

T
he majority of horses perform best on a certain type or a certain
range of ground conditions. This is largely due to the horse's action,
soundness in leg joints and even the size of its feet. Chart - All flat courses Sfto lOf

By looking at a horse's past achievements, an idea of the type of going it

prefers, can be formed. As mentioned, we should only draw a comparison, when the going is either
in exactly the same band, or in an immediately adjacent band.
I would suggest that only the same band as its preference, or the band on
either side should be used in form comparisons. Example 1
The going today is soft (Band 5) and the trip is classified in the table as 5f
From the Flat chart '5f to lOf reprinted opposite; 1 lOyD. 5f 1 lOyD when the going is Band 5 becomes 5f 1

5fE2 is, on the face of it, equivalent to 5fl 1-OyEi, 6fE, 6fl lOyD, 6f200yC, Example 2
7f60yB, 7fl35yA, 1mA! and lm80yA2. The going today is yielding (Band 4) and the trip is classified in the table as
6fD. 6fD when the going is Band 4 becomes 6fE.
5fE2 represents a 5fE classification on heavy ground - the type of ground

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Example 3 In a 5f handicap, lOst is not so much of an inconvenience if the horse has

The going today is yielding to soft (Band 4) and the trip is classified in the the conformation to carry it. This type of horse will have an advantage when
table as 6f HOyC. carrying larger weights competing against horses that have less ability. It
6f 1 lOyC when the going is Band 4 becomes 6f 1 lOyD. will not always have the advantage if the bottom-weight is a lightly made
type with some class.
Example 4
The going today is heavy (Band 5) and the trip is classified in the table as 6f This horse may have the class to win races but has been let down by its
200yA. 6f 200yA when the going is Band 5, becomes 6f 200yC. conformation. This type has its niche as carrying lower weights against
opposition that is higher in the handicap. Fillies are not generally good at
Example 5 giving away lumps of weight to the opposite sex. To do so, they need plenty
The going today is yielding (Band 4) and the trip is classified in the table as of class.
7f 60yA. 7f 60yA when the going is Band 4 becomes 7f 60yB.
In 2m and over Flat handicaps, horses that have had the ability to win say, a
Therefore, from the initial list, 5fE2 can be equivalent to 5f 1 lOyEi, 6fE, 6f 0-80 race under lOst have proved that they have a certain amount of class.
1 lOyD, 6f 200yC and 7f 60yB depending on the going. At these distances they will be able to perform at least as well when raised
in class and are sitting on the foot of the handicap.
To be fair, going corrections also take into account headwinds and following
winds. Outside of handicaps, horses generally race within narrower band limits,
therefore calculations of pounds/length become much more reliable because
This is a valid explanation of the differences between the official going and the above factors do not come into play with the same amount of force.
the going corrections only in a minority of cases. It has the same effect on At sprint distances where a horse is going from one end of the handicap to
the horse as the going, so use the method suggested above where you know another due to it being raised or lowered in class - the following scale is a
that this was the reason. useful guide:

Weight • Is! I 2 1 b = 100%,

• 2 n d l 2 1 b = 50%,
Class and weight are closely related. Horses with more class, can be levelled • 3rdl21b = 25%,
down to the rest by the addition of weight. Removing weight from less • any more = Nil.
classier animals will speed them up only in certain circumstances.
Therefore a horse moving 351bs can be considered as moving 211bs for form
Under a handicapping system where the top-weight carries 1 Ost and the calculations. 121bs is approximately the band in which the horse will
bottom-weight 7st71b, the difference is 351bs. At first sight (see below) this normally run, depending on what type of race it is and what else is in the
suggests that at 3.31bs/length for 5f races, the bottom-weight has a start of race. Just because we have a handicap that is 351bs wide, does not
about 11 lengths over the top-weight. In 2m races at 0.941b/length (to be necessarily mean that at 5f, 351bs will equal 11 lengths, or at 2m, 351bs will
exact), the bottom-weight has a start of about 37 lengths. equal 37 lengths.

Horses fit broadly into two groups. The stockier, muscley_types and the At sprint distances, the winners tend to the higher than average end of the
rangier, leaner types. The first is commonplace amongst sprinters although handicap.
not the rule. The second is commonplace amongst the stayers and is more
the rule. A combination of the horse's breeding and its physical proportions At long distances, the winners tend to come from the lower than average end
will determine at what distance it will produce its best. of the handicap.

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However, many 2m Flat races have horses running in them solely for the Clearly we want to identify not only
reason that they have proved themselves to have insufficient speed to win the horses that are capable of fast 11
over shorter trips. It is hoped that they may possess stamina instead. Top- times, but also the ones that can . . at long
weights, proven at the distance, tend to do well against these sorts. reproduce those times against the distances the
better opposition.
Class predominant
A method as good as any of assessing performance
Class can be very difficult to assess. The usual method is to compare the the class of a race is to look at the
official handicap marks, that is, on a basis of weights individually allotted to highest official handicap mark in the factor is
horses by the official handicapper. race. weight. .. and
There are many anomalies with races assessed on the basis of pure speed. If a top-weighted horse carrying at shorter
One of the reasons why a class horse can win a slowly run race is that, it can 9stl01b in a 0-80 handicap having a distances the
find the sudden burst of acceleration that leaves the rest toiling. handicap mark of 76, is compared
with the top-weight in a 0-115 prevailing factor
A reason why fast race times can be recorded by horses with lesser ability is handicap carrying 9stl01b, rated 111, is class"
that, if they are evenly matched the race becomes competitive, several are then the class difference is 351b.
vying for the lead, and they carry each other forward.
However, taking into account the weight carrying ability mentioned on the
Any athlete will confirm how hard it is to break a record when doing it previous page, use a figure of 211bs instead of 351bs for sprint distances.
oneself with nobody else at their shoulder. It is a question of mind (or
adrenaline) over matter and the presence of competitors increases the will to From sprint to middle distances is where the greatest bias in breeding has
win. occurred. The result is a higher class animal compared with the longer trips.

If a less classy animal (horse or human) is raced against a better one, it is I Ins means Ihat at long distances the predominant performance factor is
going to find it tough even if it put up a faster time in the heats. Obviously weighl and at shorter distances the prevailing factor is class.
the true measure of class is time. To beat the best you have to be fast. A big
race, full of fast animals will produce a champion and a fast time. I have shown in the chapter: 'Maximum distances' that at 22f on the Flat,
there is a case for the top-weight to be 8st71b rather than lOst, that is, a
Class is measured in terms of weight for horseracing because it is reduction of 2 l i b .
convenient to do so. It would be very strange, for a handicap to operate by
either of the following methods: This means that the classiest horses in the race are disadvantaged because
weight is prevailing over class to the tune of 2lib at this distance.
[1] opening stall gates for the best horses later than the others.
To put it another way, if a horse is raised in class from say, a 0-80 handicap
[2] the best horses starting further back. to a 0-115 handicap, that is, where the official handicap marks of the top-
rated horses are 80 and 115 respectively, then this represents a rise in class
We have the problem of trying to assess class in terms of time and weight. of 351b and the horse goes from the head of the weights to the foot.
Both must be taken into account. Using the present system of class
assessment according to weight, it is easy to see whether a horse is moving At this extreme distance of 22f, the horse has a rise in class of 351b acting
up or down in class. against it whilst a drop in weight of effectively 561b is acting for it, resulting
in a net advantage of 2lib.

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At 22f, a rise in class is worth only 0.4 times as much as an equal drop in Flat Flat
weight. At 22f. the influence of class is reduced by 21 Ib for 35 Ib worth of (from handicap to handicap on the same mark) (all other cases)
weight. 1 2 3
Distances Maximum Weight advantage Weight/Class
As discussed in the previous chapter, those horses that are raised in class weight for each 1 pound adjustment
and go from the head of the weights to the foot at sprint distances are advantage rise in class factor
disadvantaged. 5f -14 -0.4 +0.6
6f -13 -0.4 +0.6
The drop in weight of 351b cannot be offset against the rise in class of 351b. 7f -12 -0.3 +0.7
Imile -11 -0.3 +0.7
The drop in weight of 351b at sprint distances can be considered to be only 1m If -10 -0.3 +0.7
2 lib. 1m 2f -9 -0.3 +0.7
1m 3f -8 -0.2 +0.8
At these distances say 5f, the horse has a rise in class of 351b acting against 1m 4f -7 -0.2 +0.8
it and a drop in weight of only 2 lib acting for it, resulting in a net 1m 5f -6 -0.2 +0.8
disadvantage of 141b. This means that the least classiest horses in the race 1m 6f -4 -0.1 +0.9
are disadvantaged because class is prevailing over weight to the tune of 141b ImTf -2 -0.1 +0.9
at this distance. 2 miles 0 0 +1
2m If +3 +0.1 +1.1
2m 2f +6 +0.2 +1.2
At 5f, a drop in weight is worth only 0.6 times as much_as an equal rise in
2m 3f +9 +0.3 +1.3
class. At 5f. the influence of weight is reduced by 141b for 351b worth of
2m 4f + 13 +0.4 +1.4
class.
2m 5f +17 +0.5 +1.5
2m 6f +21 +0.6 +1.6
Clearly there is going to be a cross-over point where a rise in class of 'X'
amount is equal to a drop in the weights of 'X' amount. National Hunt National Hunt
(from handicap to handicap on the same mark) (all other cases)
The cross-over point is 2m for the Flat and 4m4f for National Hunt. The 1 2 3
'Rates Tables of class and weight adjustments' on the opposite page show Distances Maximum Weight advantage Weight/Class
the precise details for each distance. The negative signs in the tables show weight for each 1 pound adjustment
where class is prevailing over weight. advantage rise in class factor
2 miles -10 -0.4 +0.6
With reference to this Rates Table, here are some examples to explain how 2m 2f -9 -0.3 +0.7
it works using first the table for handicaps; 2m 4f -8 -0.3 +0.7
2m 6f -7 -0.2 +0.8
• At 1m, where a horse is being raised the maximum 351b (to stay in the 3 miles -6 -0.2 +0.8
handicap proper) in class in a handicap: 3 in 2f -5 -0.2 +0.8
It will be 1 lib worse off. 3m 4f -4 -0.1 +0.9
3m 6f -3 -0.1 +0.9
• At 1m, where a horse is being lowered 351b in class in a handicap: 4 miles -2 -0.1 +0.9
It will be 1 lib better off. 4m 2f -1 0 +1
4m 4f 0 0 +1
These figures can be read straight off the left-hand column.
| Rates Tables of class & weight adjustments

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• At 1m where a horse is being raised 171b in class in a handicap: At7f ^^

Weight advantage/pound raised in class is: 171b x -0.3 = -51b, or 51b
worse off. A horse is raised in class by 351b with a drop in weight carried of 301b.

• At 1m, where a horse is being lowered 171b in class in a handicap: -351b + (0.7 x +301b) = -141b,
Weight advantage/pound lowered in class is: 171b x +0.3 = +51b, or or 141b worse off.
51b better off.
At lOf
These figures can be calculated from the second column.
A horse is raised in class by 71b with a rise in weight carried of 61b.
It is simple to perform the above calculations when a horse is confined to a
handicap, because a drop in the weights follows automatically from a rise in -71b + (0.7x-61b) = -
class and vice versa. or 121b worse off.

However, outside of handicaps, the third column in the above 'Rates Table' At 2 miles
should be used.
A horse is raised in class by 141b with a drop in weight carried of 81b.
This takes into account that any movement in class will probably not be
accompanied by a corresponding opposite movement in the weights. -141b + (l x+81b) = -61b,
or 61b worse off.
It also accounts for re-assessments by the handicapper.
At 18f
Some Flat examples will show how this works (same principle for National
Hunt): A horse is lowered in class by 141b with a rise in weight carried of 1 lib.

For calculations; 141b

or lib better off.
• treat rises in class and rises in weights as negative factors.
• treat drops in class and drops in weights as positive factors.
At 22f ^—^—
The following simple formula uses the Weight/Class adjustment factor in A horse is lowered in class by 71b with a drop in weight carried of 51b.
the third column of the Rates Table on the previous page;
71b + (1.6x+51b)=151b,
Class movement + (adjustment factor x weight movement) or 151b better off.

When a clock rating based on race times is measured in conjunction with a

At 5f —«-«_—^-^—i—^—.—
class rating, a fuller picture is formed and is dealt with in the chapter:
A horse is raised in class by 141b with a drop in weight carried of lOlb. 'Racing against the clock'.

-141b + (0.6 x+101b) =-81b, Next instalment of "The Solidus' continues with;
or 81b worse off.
The Classifications - and how they are determined

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A horse that keeps changing his legs will not allow itself to freewheel down
the hill and meet the other side with maximum momentum. A prolonged
uphill gradient is a severe test of stamina.

THE In National I lunl racing the following are the major factors:

1. The nature of the course.

SOLIDUS 2.

3.
The difficulty of the obstacles.

The number of the obstacles.

Most descriptions of National Hunt courses are limited to something like:

• Testing course with stiff uphill finish. Stiff fences.

• Undulating with tight bends that slow the pace. Average fences.

When these courses were subjected to the same scrutiny applied to the flat
Part 4 of our serialisation of the book by courses, some interesting differences were found.
Davey Towey explaining his innovative, A course that has tight bends on a National Hunt course had less effect on
ground-breaking approach evaluating the pace of the race. The centrifugal forces were insufficient to
racetrack performances inconvenience the horses because the pace of the races was not high enough.
The bends need to be very tight before the same effect is noticed.
How the classifications are determined
The longer distances involved when racing over the sticks mean that there

T here are many factors which determine the classification such as are many more bends to be negotiated. A three-mile hurdle on a small
gradients, bends, camber and positioning of starting stalls. Each circumference course is obviously going to favour front runners who have
distance has been looked at in detail to assess its classification. the inside rail. Additionally, where there is a big field, a horse held up
Listed are examples of the factors that are coming in to play: behind may have to go wide throughout the whole race.

When the stalls are positioned on an uphill gradient this results in slower Where this a climb to the winning post, this has led to course descriptions of
race times because the horses meet the hill from a standing start. testing. However, what has not usually been taken into account is that there
is very often a descent after the climb. Horses can get a breather here,
Where there are very tight bends there is a strong centrifugal force acting resulting in some very fast sectional times. The average course times for
sideways on the horse which slows it down considerably. This factor iln-sc types of course supports this view.
increases in importance with sprint distances and taller horses.
I In- lop courses have stiffer fences than the other courses.
Gentle undulations increase the pace. Horses can get a breather on the down
slope and meet the upturn with a higher momentum. Severe undulations also ('oiirso descriptions always tell you this but this is not so important. The
allow a horse's momentum to carry it up the other side but this type of inipoi Lull liicl is the number of fallers or serious mistakes at the fences.
course needs a horse that can act on it.

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Apart from their stiffness, the factors which cause the mistakes are; (Shown after each distance, eg:
(16D). 16 fences to be jumped.
• an above average number of fences, D means 1 more than average
for that particular distance. A
• the proximity of fences, [3] Above/below average number of is 2 less than average, B is 1
fences. less, C is average, D is 1 more,
• meeting the fence at a faster pace than average, E is 2 more.
for example: a downhill fence, This affects the overall grading
only where the fences are quite
• and meeting the fence when unbalanced or with insufficient time to difficult or difficult.)
adjust the stride pattern.

There are on average three fences for every half mile of a steeplechase. Overall Gradings
Indeed at the distances of two, three and four miles there must be at least 12,
18 and 24 fences respectively. The overall grading is denoted by the square [ ] brackets. A general
description of the overall grading is as follows:
It is surprising how the number offences at the intermediate distances can
vary. This is due to the conformation of the course. [A] Fences claim few fallers. Pace of course is fast resulting in quick
times.
Courses that have an above average amount of stiffer fences claim an above [C] Average.
average amount of fallers. [E] Fences claim highest amount of fallers. Course is testing resulting in
slower times.
When a three-mile chaser cocks its head coming to the 19th, one wonders
whether it is thinking: [B]&
"Not another one, I've done my 18 thank you very much! " [D] are intermediate classifications.

Is this creature a bit like us - it topples over when having one too many? Where a course description has been given as C or faster, in conjunction
with a fence description of D or E;
By classifying each chase course according to the following three factors, I for example: {BE}, this means that the horse needs to be a good all-rounder.
hope to have given a classification as good as can be achieved on a simple It should be capable of going a good pace and also be a sound jumper.
grading system of A to E.
Where a course description is D or E and also the fence description is D or
E; for example: {EE}, the horse must stay and be a sound jumper.
(The combination of these
two is expressed as, say The difference between hurdles is not of a great significance so the
n ,- {BC}, where B is the pace classification is simpler. Gradings of [A] to [E] have been given according
Pace of course. (AtoE,
roi
[2] T-.-.M- u offf fences. {
Difficulty T->
,AtoE} 01 course and G represents u> I he pace of the hurdle course which is not always the same as the pace of
the number of serious the chase course.
mistakes or fallers claimed
by the fences). Course descriptions are included for Flat races because, firstly, most race
distances use only part of the course, and secondly, the draw can be so
important.

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The following National Hunt courses are generally regarded as providing Draw Notation Examples:
the toughest tests for steeplechasers:
LLL in a U> runner race:
• Ascot Stall I h;is a one length advantage over stall 4, two lengths over stall 8, three
1 lengths over slall 12 and four lengths over stall 16.
• Cheltenham . . the toughest tests
• Doncaster
• Haydock
I for steeplechasers . . . ( ' ( ' in a 24 runner race:
Slall 12 has a one length advantage over stalls 8 and 16, two lengths over
• Kempton \however do not stalls 4 and 20, and 3 lengths over stalls 1 and 24.
• Liverpool \ provide the most
• Newbury
• Sandown. \fallers" [only applies to a narrow strip next to rail]. These comments override
everything else.
These courses however do not provide the most fallers. As stated earlier, it (combination LL): When the factors described are both present the
is not always the fences themselves that cause the mistakes. Fences are combination represents an advantage of (LL). This refers to the fact that, to
where the mistakes happen, the cause may be going too fast, or any of the take advantage of a favourable low draw, the horse must be fast away.
other factors mentioned earlier. The basic rules governing fences and
hurdles: The above descriptions should not be regarded as gospel. Watering and
racing over the same ground for a couple of days will change the going.
Fences There arc always strips of ground that are faster. Observe previous races to
• Minimum 4'6" (except water jumps). establish where they are.
• Minimum of 12 fences in first 2 miles and 6 per mile thereafter.
• Minimum of 1 open ditch per mile. During my research for this book and through observations based on
experience I have noticed that - the bigger the field, the bigger the lottery.
Hurdles This is an over-generalisation but largely true.
• Minimum 3'6" from bottom bar to top bar.
• Minimum of 8 hurdles in first 2 miles and 1 per 2 furlongs thereafter. In stayer's races there is usually ample time for the runners to sort
themselves out. But in sprint races good use must be made of a favourable
draw.
The Draw
If the sprinters have to negotiate a bend, it is advisable to take into account
The effect of the draw in flat races should not be under-estimated. the possibility that other horses, drawn close, may prevent the selection from
obtaining a good early position, simply because they are faster starters.
The following L, C and H notation, is used to indicate the advantage to
those drawn low, centre and high: Ante-post betting prior to the announcement of the draw is taking a double
gamble. i
L/H 1 length for every 6 stalls. Max. 3 lengths.
LL/HH 1 length " 5 stalls. Max. 4 lengths. In next month's SOLIDUS instalment. . .
LLL/HHH 1 length " 4 stalls. Max. 5 lengths.
LLLL/HHHH 1 length " 3 stalls. Max. 6 lengths. Davey's course-by-course assessments
CC 1 length " 4 stalls. Max. 3 lengths. for every UK flat racing venue

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16, two lengths over stalls 4 and 20, and 3 lengths over stalls 1 and 24.
[only applies to a narrow strip next to rail]. These comments override
everything else.

THE (combination LL): When the factors described are both present the
combination represents an advantage of (LL). This refers to the fact that, to
take advantage of a favourable low draw, the horse must be fast away.

SOL1DUS Flat Course by Course Descriptions:

The draw notations are explained above, for other terms, see the key at the
end of this chapter.

ASCOC
R.H. Galloping course with a sustained climb on the straight course. The
stretch before the home turn is also a steady climb which makes the 1m trip
on the round course a stiff test. Therefore all races up to 1m are stamina
sapping. The bend into the home straight is quite sharp and a handy position
Part 5 of our serialisation of the book by is required because of a fairly short run-in. In races beyond a mile,
Davey Towey explaining his innovative, momentum is gained from the descent into Swinley Bottom.
ground-breaking approach evaluating DRA W: Straight course (up to Im) - stalls stands side - (L).
racetrack performances Ayr
L.H. This course has two large sweeping turns which assist front runners.
Draw Notation: However the run-in is of sufficient length for those coming from behind to
make up the leeway. The straight 6f is more downhill than uphill which

A reminder of the notation used, as featured in last month's extract.

The effect of the draw in flat races should not be under-estimated.
The following L, C and H notation, is used to indicate the
advantage to those drawn low, centre and high:
makes this trip slightly faster than average. The lOf trip includes the back
straight which enables a good gallop early on.
DRAW: Straight course (up to 6f) - stalls far side - (LL).

Bath
L/H 1 length for every 6 stalls. Max. 3 lengths. L.H. This is both a tricky course and a testing one with its bends and a
LL/HH 1 length " 5 stalls. Max. 4 lengths. sustained uphill finish which bears slightly to the left all the way to the post.
LLL/HHH 1 length " 4 stalls. Max. 5 lengths The course requires goodjockeyship and a good judge of pace.
LLLL/HHHH1 length" 3 stalls. Max. ft lengths. DRA W: No significant advantage.
CC 1 length " 4 stalls. M;ix. 1 I m i ' l l r .
Beverley
Examples: R.H. The 5f trip here is as stiff as you can get being on the climb
LLL in a 16 runner race: Stall 1 has a ODC length BdVUlttgO OVOI s t a l l - I , two throughout. The straight course bends to the right just before the junction
lengths over stall 8, three lengths over s t a l l I . ' a m i loin K - i i j ' l h s mri s t a l l \(i. with the round course. The 2 mile trip is very stiff also as it starts from the
same position as the 5f start. In contrast the distances in between provide
CC in a 24 runner race: Stall 12 has a one I n i j ' l h a m . i i i l . i j v m r i s t a l l s X and just an average test due to the back straight descending steeply into the
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home turn which gives the horses plenty of momentum to meet the climb to While at this most charming and historic course, it once occurred to me that
the post. If a horse gets checked when they are racing in earnest down the watching the progress of the horses racing round the track was rather like
descent into the home turn the loss of momentum for the uphill finish will that of the whisky that was swirling around the bottom of my tumbler.
certainly put paid to its chances. DRA W: A fast start is of prime importance especially in sprints.
DRA W: All races up to 1m lOOy - (HII). A substantial advantage is obtained when this is combined
with a low draw - (combination LL).
Brighton
L.H. A fast course with undulations and easy turns and a sharp descent on Curragh
the long run-in which allows a horse to build up speed to meet a step about R.H. Fair, galloping course which is slightly faster than average with a
2f out. The gradients favour the neat actioncd sort of horse capable of gradual incline on the 3f home straight. The Irish Derby and Oaks are held
adjusting to the varying conditions. There is a pronounced cumber which here and the course gives a very fair second chance to those horses that did
deters many horses from venturing out off the rail lo pass a IVonl runner. not act on the Epsom course.
DRA W: No significant advantage. DRA W: No significant advantage.

Carlisle Doncaster
R.H. Stiff test due to the undulations and a sustained climb on the home L.H. Galloping course with a long, straight and level home-stretch suiting
straight. the big, long-striding individual. The in round course is slightly faster than
DRA W: (5fand 6f) - yielding or slower - (L). average due to the start meeting a downhill section at the end of the back
straight.
Catterick DRA W: The draw is significant but changes from year to year.
L.H. An undulating course with sharpish turns. The Sf trip is slightly faster
than average due to a downhill stretch at the start. A distinct kink in the Edinburgh/ Musselburgh
course at the junction with the round course tends to unbalance many horses. R.H. Fairly galloping course mainly due to the length of the back and home
Not a galloping course, the neat actioned sort do well here. stretches. However the turns are sharp which slows the pace handing the
DRA W: (6f) - good or faster - (L). advantage to the sharper sorts. There is time for the gallopers to regain their
stride on the half mile run-in.
Chepstow DRA W: Straight course (5f) - stalls stands side - (LL).
L.H. Races up to 1m 14y are on a straight course which is largely downhill Straight course (5f) - stalls far side - (H).
enabling a strong pace to build up resulting in some very fast times. Straight course (5f) - big fields - (L), [centre at a larger
However the undulations prevent a description of the course as galloping in disadvantage than high].
nature. Round course (up to 1m) - (HH).
DRA W: Straight course (up to 1m) - (H).
Epsom
Chester L.H. The 5f trip is downhill and is the fastest anywhere in the world. The
L.H. This course is very testing in an unusual way. picture changes when longer trips are tackled. The 12f lOy Derby trip is
mainly on the rise for the first half which makes this trip a strong test of
The course is only one mile round and on the turn throughout. There is :\ stamina. The downhill section into the home turn unbalances many horses to
sharp turn onto the short, one furlong run-in. There is no cumber whatsoever such an extent that, by the time they are back on an even keel, it is then too
and so there is a very pronounced centrifugal force on horse and rider when late - the winner being in full flight on the fast, downhill stretch to the post.
they are travelling at full racing pace. The course is I here lore tailor-made for DRA W: Straight course (5f) - (RH).
a small horse and rider especially at the shorter trips. Round course (6f and If) are on chutes and there is no
significant advantage.

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.gig.co rr>
SMARTsig confidential 10.07 Straight course (Sfand 6f) - big fields - good - (none), slower
than good - (L) [centre at a greater disadvantage than
Round course (1m 114y and 10fl8y) - good & faster • high].
slower than good - (LL).
Leicester
Folkestone R H- Races up to in are run on the straight course which for the first half is a
R.H. Average course with wide, easy bends and undulations. N°t pronounced downhill gradient and is very fast. The Sfand 6f trips do not
particularly galloping due to the undulations and the course circunil include quite as much of this downhill section.
but the easy bends compensate.
DRA W: Round course (6fl89y) - (HH). jhere is a steady climb on the run-in levelling out about if out but this is of
Round course (9fl49y and I2f) - (HHH). no inconvenience because of the momentum into it.
Round course (over 12f) - (H). Straight course (up to 1m 8y) - yielding or slower - (L).

Goodwood Leopardstown
oes n L.H- Galloping course with long home stretch favouring big, long-striding
R.H. A course of sharp bends and gradients which definitely <* °.,
the strong galloping type. The bends slow the pace conside^Y an types.
course requires good judgement from the saddle to get a kick °tt tn Straight course (up to 6f) - (H).
downhill sections and skill in keeping a horse balanced.
DRA W: Round course (7f, 1m and 12f) - (HH). Lingf ield (Turf)
L.H- The straight course holding races up to 7f 140y is particularly fast due
Hamilton to rfost of it being downhill. The round course has an uphill section, then
R.H. Undulating course with a dip running across it which is testing runS downhill into the sharpish home turn. Overall the course is very similar
especially at the 1m 65y and 9f 36y trips. The straight 6f cottfse is sll^ection to Epson and like Epson, an ability to handle this type of course is essential.
faster than average due to some downhill sections. There is3n UP t\P&' DRAW: Straight course (up to 7fl40y) - (H).
in the home straight but if this is met with a clear run it is no' to°
DRA W: Straight course (Sfand 6f) - good or faster - (W- Lingf leld (All weather)
Straight course (Sfand 6f) - slower than good' ' ! , » / / • L.H- This course is largely on the turn and favours front runners, however to
Round course (1m 65y and 9f36y) - good orfister offset the sharpness of the turns there is a camber enabling horses to come
od
Round course (1m 65y and 9f36y) - slower th<>n S° frorn behind providing they stay handy and can act on a camber.
DRA W: A fast start is important especially in sprints. A substantial
Haydock pout. advantage is obtained when this is combined with a low
L.H. Fair, galloping track with a long run-in on a slight incli116 tnr°U; draw - (combination LL).
Suits big, long-striding types. [only
DRA W: Straight course (Sfand 6f) - yielding or slower - (HH^'^ rail]. Musselburgh (see Edinburgh)
applies to a narrow strip next to t"e s
Newbury
Kempton L.H- Wide and galloping course. The round course is slightly faster than
m
R.H. Consists of three flat courses. The round course is u.~, _ ,, average due to the relative ease with which a strong gallop is obtained.
The 1 Of Jubilee Course is dog-legged and lies at a tangent to ti ^^track
the r0 Races up to in are run on the slightly undulating straight course. The round
course. There is also the straight 6f sprint course. Not a truly I mile (1m 7y) and above being on the round course.
nor is it particularly sharp. Straight course (up to 1m) - yielding or slower - (H).
DRA W: Straight course (Sfand 6f) - stalls stands side' S°°" '
slower than good - (LLL).
Straight course (Sfand 6f) - stalls far side - ( July 2003

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Newcastle Redcar
L.H. Galloping course. Races up to 7f are run on a straight course. A strong L.H. Flat and galloping, this course is very fast allowing horses to really
pace builds up in the early stages on the straight course which allows the stretch out.
momentum to carry them up the incline which levels out in the last half DRA W: Straight course (up to 1m) - (H).
furlong. Races of in and over are run on the round course which is both
galloping and a stiff test of stamina. Ripon
DRA W: Straight course (up to 7f> - good or faster - (H). R.H. Oval course with slight gradients and a long run-in. Races above 6f are
Straight course (up to 7f) - stalls centre or far side - run on the round course. It is the tight bends that prevent this course from
yielding - (L), soft - (LL). being described as galloping.
Straight course (up to 7J) - big fields - yielding - (none), DRA W: Straight course (up to 6f) - (L),
soft - (L), [centre at a larger disadvantage than high]. Round course (1m and over) - (H).

Newmarket Salisbury
R.H. Newmarket consists of two courses - the Rowley Mile Course and the R.H. This course is a stiff test of stamina with a sustained climb on the run-
July Course which hosts the June, July and August meetings. Both courses in for the last half mile to the post. Races of 12f and 14f are run down the
are wide and galloping with the last furlong uphill. The chalky ground here home stretch in the opposite direction where they pick up plenty of speed
is exceptionally well draining -not a course for the mud lover. and then meet a tight loop which slows the pace. The run-in is then uphill. A
To illustrate this point: after a week of rain prior to Rodrigo di Triano's course that requires skill from the saddle and judgement of pace.
2000 Guineas triumph, I wanted to assess the going and could not find a DRA W: Straight course (up to 6f212y) - good or slower - (L).
single spot where I could get my heel in (including the car park), and this
was of course the third and final day of the meeting. Sundown
DRAW: Rowley Mile Course (up to I Of) - stalls stands side or big R.H. The long run-in here is on the rise throughout. 5f races are run on the
fields - (L). straight course and 7f 16y and above on the round course. A galloping
July Course - No significant advantage. course.
The courses meet near the winning post resulting in a sudden wide expanse.
Nottingham There is also a bend to the right and the post is partially obscured from horse
L.H. The long run-in and easy turns make this course a fair, undemanding and rider.
course which is often used for introductions. It is here that some horses seem to suddenly feel lost and start to hang. This
DRA W: Straight course (Sfand 6f) - stalls far side - (L). Mack of something to aim at', is the reason that I feel the second horse so
Straight course (Sfand 6J) - stalls stands side - good - (H), often seems to overhaul the leader. This is especially noticeable after
soft - (III!) jumping the last in chases where from having a rail up to the final fence, the
Straight course (5fand 6f) - big fields - good - (II). horse suddenly finds itself in the middle of a wide expanse at the junction
soft - (HH), [centre at a larger disadvantage I/inn /<»*•/ with the flat and hurdle course. It is necessary to keep the horse from
hanging towards the rail because a straight line from the last ends up in the
Ponteffract right hand stands before the post.
L.H. The last 3f of this course is uphill and round :i l . m l v ' . h . i i | > I K - I K ! The DRA W: Straight course (5f) - stalls stands side - (L).
course is extremely severe because over 51'and <>l n lusl e i i i l y p;n r i.-. Straight course (5f) - stalls far side - good or faster - (HH),
difficult to achieve before the rising ground is met . U K ! m r i l l i r longer trips slower than good - (HHHH).
the bends prevent the pace from i n c i v a s i n j - M i l l u m i l l y l<> mei-l Ilie dimb. Straight course (5f) - big fields - good or faster - (H),
DRAW: A fast start is iiii/>/>r/(inl <:\/>eeiiill\- in \/>/ inl,\ I y.iniler slower than good - (HHH), [centre at a greater disadvantage
advantage is ohhiiiicJ when tins / s etuiihineil with <i low draw than low].
i'n ffotind tlowtr than good - (L).

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Southwell (Turf and All weather) wolverhampton

L.H. Apart from the 'Fibresand' surface on the All Weather course, the I ..I I. Flat and triangular, this course is slightly faster than average with a
characteristics are much the same. The straight 5f is unremarkable but races long run-in.
of 6f and over on both courses are run on the round course. Offers no particular advantage to any sort of horse over another.
The bends are tight on both courses, but being inside the All Weather DRA W: No significant advantage.
course, the turf course is even smaller and tighter.
Both courses subject the horses to a strong centrifugal force which classifies Yarmouth
races of 6f and over here as testing. Front running small horses do well on I ..I I. The 1m 3y straight course is a flat, fast course. The round course
these types of track. averages out the quickness of the run-in due to the turns slowing the pace.
DRA W: Round course (6fand 7f): A fast start is important. DKA W: No significant advantage.
A substantial advantage is obtained when this is combined
with a low draw - (combination LL). York
I ,.l I. This is a flat, faster than average galloping course with long straights
Thirsk and a long straight run-in that enables a strong pace to build up.
L.H. Undulating, fast course with turns that do not slow the strong pace that DRA W: Str course (5f& 6f) - stalls far side - good or slower - (LL).
builds up here. The undulations would prevent the course from being Straight course (Sfand 6f) - stalls stands side - (LL).
described as galloping. Straight course (Sfand 6f) - big fields - good or faster - (CC).
DRA W: Straight course (up to 6f) - stalls stands side - good or faster - Str course (Sfand 6f) - big fields - slower than good - (LL).
(HH), yielding - (HHH), soft - (HHHH), [only applies to a
narrow strip next to the stands rail]. Draw notation - see page 4 Big fields = 20 or more runners.
Round course (If and 1m) - big fields - (L). L.H. or R.H. = Left or Right-handed course.
continues on page 14.
Warwick
L.H. It is the sharpish turns and short run-in which prevents this course from The perfect place to
being described as galloping. Otherwise it is a large, flat, wide course which recycle your unwanted
does not unduly trouble the gallopers especially ones that like to make the racing books and betting
running. paraphernalia.
There is a separate 5f course which has a sharp left hand bend into the hone
straight.
Races of 6f and over are run on the round course. The 6f sprint trip round Do your bit to save the
the sharpish home turn is slightly stiffer than average due to centrifugal planet - and do someone a
force. favour at the same time!
DRA W: (5f 6f Wfl69y and 12fll5y) - (L).
WAPSHOP is a FREE service to membe
Windsor >o please make FULL use of this facility
Figure of eight. Apart from its shape a fairly average course in most
respects. Good positioning of the mount at certain points in the race will
save valuable ground, a point which will obviously carry greater FOR SALE:
significance in larger fields.
Jack issues of Racing Post. Most issues from Sept 2000 to present. Results
However the long run-in of about 5f allows horses to cone from behind.
ire marked on the race cards.
DRA W: No significant advantage.
\ndrew Kirk (London) Tel 0208 9919491 Email kirka3(fl)flol. com

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Ayr
L.H.
Hurdles [B]
2m, 2m 4f, 2m 6f, 3m 1 lOy, 3m 2f 1 lOy.

THE Chases [BC]

2m{12C} [B],2m4f{17D> [B], 2m 5f HOy {18E} [C], 3m If {19C} [B],
3m 3f 40y {21D} [B], 4m 120y {27E} [C].

SOLIBUS Hurdles [B]

2m If, 2m 4f, 2m 7f HOy.
Chases {AD}
Bangor
L.H.

2 m l f l l O y { 1 2 C } [B], 2m4f HOy {15C} [B], 3m HOy {18C} [B],

3m 6f {21A} [A], 4m If {24B} [B].

Carlisle
Part 6 of our serialisation of the book by R.H.
Davey Towey explaining his innovative, Hurdles [E]
ground-breaking approach evaluating 2m If, 2m4f HOy, 3m lOOy.
racetrack performances Chases {EA}
2m{13D} [C],2m4f HOy {17E} [C], 3m{18C} [C], 3m2f {20C} [C].

THE SOLIDUS (part 6)

Davey Towey L.H.
Hurdles [C]
National Hunt course classifications 2m If 1 lOy, 2m 5f 1 lOy, 3m 2f.
A detailed explanation of the notations used in the following listings were Chases {CB}
printed in the Solidus extract in issue 10.06, hut are also reprinted here for 2 m l f l l O y {12B} [B], 2m 5f HOy {14A} [B], 3m 2f {ISA} [B].
convenience and will be found on page 27.
Cdtterick
Aintree L.H.
(see Liverpool) Hurdles [C]
2m, 3m IfSOy.
ASCOt Chases {CD}
R.H. 2m {12C} [C], 3 m l f 8 0 y {19C} [C], 3m4f HOy {21C} [C].
Hurdles [C]
2m 1 lOy, 2m 4f, 3m, 3m If 1 lOy. Cheltenham (New)
Chases {BC} L.H.
2m{12C} [D], 2m3f HOy {16D} [D], 3m HOy {20E} [E], Hurdles [C]
3m 5f {22C} [D]. 2m If, 2m 5f HOy, 3mllOy.

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Cheltenham (New) continued... Exeter continued...

Chases {CE} Chases {AC}
2 m l l O y {14D} [E], 2m 5f {17D} [E], 3m If HOy {21E} [E], Summer: 2m If HOy {128} [B], 2m 3f {14C} [B], 2m 6f HOy {17C} [B],
3m 2f 1 lOy {23E} [E], 3m 4f 1 lOy {24E} [E], 4m If {27E} [E]. 3m If {19C} [B].
Winter: 2m 2f {12A} [A],2m3f HOy {14B} [B],2m7f HOy {17B} [B],
Cheltenhan (Old) 3m If HOy {18B} [B].
L.H.
Hurdles [D] Fakenham
2mllOy, 2m 5f, 3 m 2 f l l O y . L.H.
Chases {CE} Hurdles [C]
2m{12C} [ D ] , 2 m 4 f l l O y {15C} [D], 3m If {19C} [D], 2mllOy, 2m 5f, 3mllOy.
3m 2f (20C) [D], 3m 3f 1 lOy {21C} [D], 4m {24C} [D]. Chases {CC}
2 m l l O y {12C} [C], 2m 5f llOy {16C} [C],3m{18C} [C].
Cheltenham (Park)
L.H. Folkestone
Hurdles [C] R.H.
2m 1 lOy, 2m 5f 1 lOy, 2m 7f 1 lOy, 3m 2f. Hurdles [B]
Chases {CE} 2m If 1 lOy, 2m 6f 1 lOy, 3m 4f.
2m HOy {12C} [D], 2m5f {15B} [C], 3m If HOy {18B} [C], Chases {CD}
3m 4f HOy {21C} [D], 4m If {24B) [C]. 2m {12C} [C],2m5f{15B} [C], 3m2f {19B} [C], 3m 7f {228} [C].

Chepstow Fontwell
L.H. Hurdles - L.H. [C]
Hurdles [C] 2m 2f, 2m 6f, 3m2f llOy.
2mllOy, 2m4fllOy, 3m. Chases - Figure of Eight. {CC}
Chases {CD} 2m2f {12A} [B],2m3f{16E} [C], 3m2f llOy {198} [C].
2 m l l O y {12C)[C],2m3fllOy {160} [D], 3m{18C} [C],
3m 2f 110y{22E) [D], 3m 6f {22C} [C]. Haydock
L.H.
Doncaster Hurdles [C]
L.H. 2m, 2m 4f, 2m 6f, 2m7f 1 lOy.
Hurdles [C] Chases {EE}
2ml50y, 2m 4f, 3m 122y. 2m{12C)[E], 2m4f {15C} [E], 3m{18C} [E], 3m4f llOy {22D} [E],
Chases {CC} 4 m l l O y {25D} [E].
2ml50y {12B} [C], 2m3f HOy {15C} [C], 3m 122y {18C} [C], 3m 2f
{19B} [C],4m{24C} [C]. Hereford
R.H.
Exeter Hurdles [A]
R.H. 2m If, 2m3f llOy, 3m2f.
Hurdles [A] Chases {BC}
Summer: 2m If 1 lOy, 2m 3f, 2m 6f. 2m{12C} [B],2m3f {14C} [B], 3m If llOy {18B} [B].
Winter: 2m 2f, 2m 3f HOy.

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Hexham Leopardstown continued...

L.H. Chases {ED}
Hurdles [E] 2m If {10A} [C], 2m 5f {15B} [D], 2m 6f llOy {16B} [D],3m{17B} [D].
2m, 2m4fllOy, 3m.
Chases {CC} Liverpool (Mildmay)
2m 1 lOy {12C} [C], 2m4f 1 lOy {15C} [C], 3m If (19C) [C], 4m {25D} L.H.
[C], Hurdles [C]
2mllOy, 2m 4f, 3 m l l O y .
Huntingdon Chases {CC}
R.H. 2m{12C)[C], 2m4f{16D} [C], 3m If {19C} [C].
Hurdles [B]
2mllOy, 2m 5f HOy, 3m 2f. Liverpool (Grand National)
Chases {BE} L.H.
2m200y {12C} [C],2m4f llOy {16D} [D], 3m {19D} [D]. Chases {EE}
2m 6f {18E} [E],4m4f {30E} [E].
Kelso
L.H. Ludlow
Hurdles [C] R.H.
2m 1 lOy, 2m 2f, 2m 4f 1 lOy, 2m 6f 1 lOy, 3m 3f. Hurdles [B]
Chases {CB} 2m, 2m 5f llOy, 3m If llOy.
2m If {128} [B],2m6fllOy {17C) [B], 3m If {19C} [B], Chases {CC}
3m4f{21C)[B]. 2m {12C} [C],2m4f {16D} [C], 3m{18C} [C].

Kempton Market Rasen

R.H. R.H.
Hurdles [C] Hurdles |l)|
2m, 2m 5f, 3mllOy. 2m If 1 lOy, 2m 3f 1 lOy, 2m 5f 1 lOy, 3m.
Chases {BE} Chases {CD}
2m{13D} [C],2m4fllOy{17E} [D],3m{19D} [D], 3m 5f {23D} [D]. 2m If llOy {13C} [C], 2m 4f {15C} [C], 2m 6f 1 lOy {168} [C],
3mlf{19C} [C], 3 m 4 f l l O y {21C} [C], 4m If {24B} [C],
Leicester 4 m 3 f l l O y {27C} [C].
R.H.
Hurdles [D] Musselburgh
2m, 2m4fllOy, 3m. R.H.
Chases {DA} Hurdles [C]
2m If {12B} [B], 2m 4f 1 lOy {15C} [B], 3m {19D} [B]. 2m, 2m 4f, 3m.
Chases {CE}
Leopardstown 2m{12C} [D],2m4f {16C} [D], 3m{18C} [D].
L.H.
Hurdles [D]
2m, 2m 2f, 2m 4f, 2m 6f, 3m. SMARTsig confidential
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Sandown continued...
Chases {CC}
L.H.
2ml8y {130} [C], 2m 4f 68y {17E} [C],3m 118y {22E} [C],
Hurdles |C]
3 m 5 f l l O y {24E} [C].
2mlOOy,2m5f, 3m 120y.
Chases {CC}
2ml60y {13C} [C], 2m 4f {16D} [C], 3m {18C} [C],
Sedgefleld
3m2fllOy {210} [C]. L.H.
Hurdles [A]
2 m l f l l O y , 2 m 5 f l l O y , 3m 3f HOy.
Chases {CC}
L.H.
2m If {13C} [B],2m5f {16C} [B], 3m2f 160y {21D} [B], 3m4f {22D}
Hurdles [E]
2mllOy, 2m 4f, 3m. [B].
Chases {EE}
2mllOy{13D}[E],2m4f{16D} [E],3m{19D} [E], 3m6f {24E} [E],
Southwell
4m If {260} [E]. L.H.
Hurdles [D]
2m, 2m 4f 1 lOy, 2m 6f, 3ml lOy.
m Abbot
Chases {DE}
L.H.
2m {14E} [E],2m4f HOy {16D} [E], 3m lOOy {20E} [E].
Hurdles [A]
2ml50y, 2m 6f, 3m2flOOy.
Chases {AB}
Stratford
L.H.
2ml50y{13C} [A], 2m 5f {15B} [A], 3m 2f lOOy {20C} [A].
Hurdles |B)
2 m l l O y , 2m 6f HOy, 3m 3f.
Perth
Chases {AA}
R.H.
2 m l f l l O y {13C} [A], 2m 4f {15C} [A], 2m5f llOy {16C} [A],
Hurdles [B]
3m{18C} [A], 3m4f{21C} [A].
2m 1 lOy, 2m4f 1 lOy, 3m 1 lOy.
Chases {CA}
2m{12C)[B],2m4fllOy {15C} [B],3m{18C} [B].
Taunton
R.H
Plumpton Hurdles [A]
2m If, 2m 3f llOy, 3mllOy.
L.H.
Chases {CD}
Hurdles [B]
2 m l l O y {13C} [C], 2m 3f {15D} [D],3m{19D} [C], 3m 3f {21D} [C],
2m If, 2m 4f.
3m 6f {23C} [C], 4m 2f 1 lOy {27D} [C].
Chases {CE}
2m{13D} [D], 2m5f {16C} [D], 3m If HOy {20D} [D].
Towcester
R.H.
Sandown
Hurdles [D]
R.H.
2m, 2m 5f, 3m 96y.
Hurdles [C]
Chases {DB}
2mllOy,2m6f.
2 m l l O y {12C} [C], 2m 6f {16B} [C], 3m If {18B} [C].

August 2003 25
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National Hunt racing is subject to the following major factors:

L.H.
Hurdles [A] 1. The nature of the course.
2m, 2m 4f 1 lOy, 2m 6f 1 lOy, 3m 1 lOy. 2. The difficulty of the obstacles.
Chases {BD} 3. The number of the obstacles.
2m{12C} [C],2m5f {16C} [C], 2m 7f {16B} [B], 3m 2f {20D} [C],
4m 2f {24A} [B], 4m 4f {28C} [C]. Most descriptions of National Hunt courses are limited to something like:
Warwick • Testing course with stiff uphill finish. Stiff fences.
L.H.
Hurdles [C] • Undulating with tight bends that slow the pace. Average fences.
2m, 2m 4f HOy.
Chases {BC} When these courses were subjected to the same scrutiny applied to the flat
2m{12C} [B],2m4f HOy {17E} [C], 3m 2f {20D} [B], courses, some interesting differences were found.
3m4fl80y {22C} [B], 4m If HOy {27E} [C].
A course that has tight bends on a National Hunt course had less effect on
WetHerby the pace of the race. The centrifugal forces were insufficient to
L.H. inconvenience the horses because the pace of the races was not high enough.
Hurdles [C] The bends need to be very tight before the same effect is noticed.
2m, 2m4f HOy, 3m If.
Chases {DE} The longer distances involved when racing over the sticks mean that there
2m {12C} [D], 2m 5f {16C} [D], 3m HOy {18C} [D], 3m 5f {21B} [C]. are many more bends to be negotiated. A three-mile hurdle on a small
circumference course is obviously going to favour front runners who have
Wincanton the inside rail. Additionally, where there is a big field, a horse held up
R.H. behind may have to go wide throughout the whole race.
Hurdles [B]
2m, 2m 6f.
Chases {CC} Where this a climb to the winning post, this has led to course descriptions of
2m {130} [C], 2m 5f {17D} [C], 3m If 1 lOy {21E} [C]. testing. However, what has not usually been taken into account is that there
is very often a descent after the climb. Horses can get a breather here,
Wolvertiampton resulting in some very fast sectional times. The average course times for
L.H. these types of course supports this view. The top courses have stiffer fences
Hurdles [C] than the other courses.
2 m l l O y , 2 m 4 f HOy, 2m 7f.
Chases {CC} Course descriptions always tell you this but this is not so important. The
2m{12C} [C],2m4f 110y{15C} [C], 3m If {188} [C]. important fact is the number of fallers or serious mistakes at the fences.
Apart from their stiffness, the factors which cause the mistakes are;
Worcester
L.H. an above average number of fences,
Hurdles [C] the proximity of fences,
2m, 2m 2f, 2m 5f HOy, 3m.
meeting the fence at a faster pace than average,
Chases {CA}
2m {12C} [B], 2m 4f HOy {15C} [B], 2m 7f {18D} [B], for example: a downhill fence,
3m 4f HOy {21C} [B]. and meeting the fence when unbalanced or with insufficient time to
adjust the stride pattern.

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There are on average three fences for every half mile of a steeplechase.
Indeed at the distances of two, three and four miles there must be at least 12, [A] Fences claim few fallers. Pace of course is fast resulting in quick
18 and 24 fences respectively. It is surprising how the number of fences at times.
the intermediate distances can vary. This is due to the conformation of the [C] Average.
course. Courses that have an above average amount of stiffer fences claim [E] Fences claim highest amount of fallers. Course is testing resulting in
an above average amount of fallers. slower times.
[B]&
When a three-mile chaser cocks its head coming to the 19th, one wonders [D] are intermediate classifications.
whether it is thinking:
"Not another one, I've done my 18 thank you very much!" Where a course description has been given as C or faster, in conjunction
Is this creature a bit like us - it topples over when having one too many? with a fence description of D or E;
for example: {BE}, this means that the horse needs to be a good all-rounder.
By classifying each chase course according to the following three factors, I It should be capable of going a good pace and also be a sound jumper.
hope to have given a classification as good as can be achieved on a simple
grading system of A to E. Where a course description is D or E and also the fence description is D or
E; for example: {EE}, the horse must stay and be a sound jumper.

(The combination of these The difference between hurdles is not of a great significance so the
two is expressed as, say classification is simpler. Gradings of [A] to [E] have been given according
[1] Pace of course. {AtoE, } {BC}, where B is the pace to the pace of the hurdle course which is not always the same as the pace of
[2] Difficulty of fences. { ,A to E} of course and C represents the chase course.
the number of serious
mistakes or fallers claimed Course descriptions are included for Flat races because, firstly, most race
by the fences). distances use only part of the course, and secondly, the draw can be so
important.
The following National Hunt courses are generally regarded as providing
(Shown after each distance, eg: the toughest tests for steeplechasers: Ascot, Cheltenham, Doncaster,
(16D). 16 fences to be jumped. Haydock, Kempton, Liverpool, Newbury & Sandown.
D means 1 more than average
for that particular distance. A These courses however do not provide the most fallers. As stated earlier, it
[3] Above/below average number of is 2 less than average, B is 1 is not always the fences themselves that cause the mistakes. Fences are
fences. less, C is average, D is 1 more, where the mistakes happen, the cause may be going too fast, or any of the
E is 2 more. other factors mentioned earlier. The basic governing rules rules are:
This affects the overall grading
only where the fences are quite Fences
difficult or difficult.) • Minimum 4'6" (except water jumps).
• Minimum of 12 fences in first 2 miles and 6 per mile thereafter.
• Minimum of 1 open ditch per mile.
Overall Gradings
Hurdles
The overall grading is denoted by the square [ ] brackets. A general • Minimum 3 '6" from bottom bar to top bar.
description of the overall grading is as follows: • Minimum of 8 hurdles in first 2 miles and 1 per 2 furlongs thereafter.

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1 So many punters place a bet without any

NH Courses Im4fto 2m6f regard to the physical appearance of the
horse, others wouldn't make a move without
what they see as a vital element to winner-
finding. How do we learn more?

EQUINE BODY LANGUAGE

Email Group

have just returned from holiday during which I read the book
recommended here on the email group, Watching Horses by the
I Aussie Behavioural researcher Dr Geoffrey Hutson.

Does anyone know of a service/site that gives comprehensive behavioural

data on races. This is certainly one area that is poorly documented. I have to
Im4f Im6f 2m 2m2f 2m4f 2m6f say (here is where I perhaps upset the rating guys) that the never ending
analysis of weight, class, times, etc., etc., in order to produce an evaluation
the night before racing, strikes me as using outdated tools in a modern
communication world.
I

NH Courses 2m2fto 3m4f The way forward is with an evaluation that works in real time utilising
information that has been processed only seconds before you receive it and
is being provided minutes before the race. Part of this evaluation would be
the pre-race behaviour of the horses.

2m2f 2m4f 2m6f 3m 3m2f 3m4f

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('onvcntional wisdom therefore tells us that;

• A is 5 pounds better than B

• A is 3 pounds better than C

THE • C is 2 pounds better than B

It has never raced against C yet form is telling us that C will beat it.

SOLIDUS If this kind of analysis was applied to athletes, boxers or football matches it
would be laughed at, yet it is followed with a fanaticism in horseracing that
borders on the absurd. There are too many assumptions that need to be made
lor this kind of analysis to be viable. The performances on one day have to
be reproduced exactly on another day.

How is this possible if the following variables have all changed?

Course
Part 7 of our serialisation of the book by
Distance
Davey Towey explaining his innovative, Going
ground-breaking approach evaluating Draw
racetrack performances Jockeys
other horses in the race.
THE SOLIDUS (part 7) Horses also have off days, how can you tell if this happened if the other
Davey Towey variables have changed?

Racing against the clock The number of seconds above or below the standard time is the most
important piece of information for analysing performance.

E very single horse race is a race against 'The clock'. It happens all the time in racing that A beats B in a fast time and then in
another race A just pips C in a slower time.

'The clock' is an animal that always runs true to form, it favours no Conventional form analysis says C will beat B.
particular ground conditions, favours no particular distances and favours no The clock says that B will beat C.
particular training method. As time goes by, it does us all no favours.
However its unswerving reliability makes it the perfect yardstick for I am going to demonstrate a far more reliable method using a Rates Table.
comparing form.
I )p until now, the information contained in the Rates Tables in this chapter
Consider the following example of conventional form analysis: was so laborious to work out, that there was not enough time in the day,
unless a computer was used for the task. These speed ratings have been
At 2 miles: A beats B by 2 lengths carrying 3 pounds more than B. (Continued on page 41)
A beats Cby 3 lengths at level weights.

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 Rates Tables of clock ratings ~ FLAT

5f 6f 7f 1m 1m1f 1m2f 1m3f 1m4f 1m5f 1m6f 1m7f 2m 2m1f 2m2f I 2m3f j 2m4f
A2 |
23.2 21.4 19.6 17.9 16.4 14.8 13.3 11.8 10.3 8.8 7.5 6.0 4.7 3.2 1.9 0.6
A1 ' 22.6 20.8 19.1 17.4 15.9 14.4 13.0 11.4 10.0 8.6 7.3 5.9 4.6 3.2 1.9 0.5
A 21.9 20.2 18.6 17.0 15.5 14.0 12.6 11.1 9.8 8.4 7.1 5.7 4.5 3.1 1.8 0.5
B T> 21.3 19.7 18.0 16.5 15.0 13.6 12.2 10.8 9.5 8.2 6.9 5.6 4.3 3.0 1.8 0.5
C < 20.7 19.1 17.5 16.0 14.6 13.2 11.9 10.5 9.2 7.9 6.7 5.4 4.2 2.9 1.7 0.5
D % 20.1 18.5 17.0 15.5 14.2 12.8 11.5 10.2 8.9 7.7 6.5 5.2 4.0 2.8 1.6 0.5
E i\ 19.5 18.0 16.5 15.0 13.7 12.4 11.2 9.9 8.6 7.4 6.3 5.1 3.9 2.7 1.6 0.5
E1 ^ , 18.8 17.4 15.9 14.6 13.3 12.0 10.8 ' 9.6 8.4 7.2 6.1 4.9 3.8 2.6 1.5 0.5
E2 £,1 18.2 16,8 15.4 14.1 12.8 11.6 10.5 9.2 8.1 7.0 5.9 4.8 3.7 2.6 1.5 0.4

Ibs./length 3.3 3.1 2.9 2.7 2.4 2.2 2.0 i 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.1

Rates Tables of clock ratings ~ Nat Hunt HURDLES

A2
2m
15.2
2m1f
14.4
2m2f
13.8
2m3f
13.1
2m4f
12.4
2m5f
11.8
2m6f
11.1
2m7f
10.4
3m
9.9
3m1f
9.2
3m2f
8.5
3m3f
7.8
3m4f
7.2
The
A1 14.8 14.1 13.4 12.8 12.1 11.4 10.8 10.1 9.5 8.9 8.3 7.6 7.0 Solidus
A 14.4 13.7 13.0 12.4 11.8 11.1 10.5 9.9 9.3 8.7 8.1 7.4 6.8
B 14.0 13.3 12.7 12.1 11.4 10.8 10.2 9.6 9.0 8.4 7.8 7.2 6.6 Rates
C 13.6 12.9 12.3 11.7 11.1 10.5 9.9 9.3 8.8 8.2 7.6 7.0 6.4
D 13.2 12.5 11.9 11.3 10.8 10.2 9.6 9.0 8.5 8.0 7.4 6.8 6.2 Tables
E 12.8 12.1 11.6 11.0 10.4 9.9 9.3 8.7 8.3 7.7 7.1 6.6 6.0 of clock
E1 9.6 9.0 8.5 8.0 7.5 6.9 6.4 5.8
E2
12.4
12.0
11.8
11.4
11.2
10.8
10.6
10.3
10.1
9.8 9.2 8,7 8.2 7.7 7.2 6.7 6.2 5.6
ratings
I0

8
Ibs./iength 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.3

4 Nat Hunt CHASES 2m - 3m2f

2m 2m1f 2m2f 2m3f 2m4f 2m5f 2m6f 2m7f 3m 3m1f 3m2f
:
A2 14.4 13.8 13.2 12.5 11.9 11.2 10.6 10.0 9.4 8.7 8.1
A1 14.1 13.4 12.9 12.2 11.5 10.9 10.4 9.7 9.1 8.5 7.9
A 13.6 13.0 12.5 11.8 11.2 10.6 10.0 9.4 8.9 8.3 7.7 The
B 13.3 12.7 12.1 11.5 10.9 10.3 9.8 9.2 8.6 8.0 7.5 Solidus
C 12.9 12.3 11.8 11.2 10.6 10.0 9.5 8.9 8.4 7.8 7.3
D 12.5 11.9 11.4 10.9 10.3 9.7 9.2 8.6 8.1 7.6 7.1
E 12.2 11.6 11.1 10.5 10.0 9.4 8.9 8.4 7.9 7.4 6.9
E1 11.7 11.2 10.7 10.2 9.6 9.1 8.6 8.1 7.6 7.1 6.6
E2 11.4 10.9 10.4 9.9 9.4 8.9 8.4 7.9 7.4 6.9 6.4
Ibs./length 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.5

Nat Hunt CHASES 3m3f- 4m4f

3m3f 3m4f 3m5f 3m6f 3m7f 4m 4m1f 4m2f 4m3f 4m4f
A2 7.5 6.9 6.3 5.7 5.0 4.4 3.8 3.2 2.6 2.0
A1 7.3 6.8 6.2 5.6 4.9 4.3 3.7 3.1 2.5 2.0
A
B
7.1
6.9
6.5
6.4
5.9
5.8
5.4
5.2
4.8
4.6
4.2
4.1
3.6
3.5
3.0
3.0
2.4
2.4
1.9
1.9 Rates i
C 6.7 6.2 5.6 5.1 4.5 4.0 3.4 2.9 2.3 1.8 Tables
D 6.5 6.0 5.4 4.9 4.4 3.9 3.3 2.8 2.2 1.7 of clock
E 6.3 5.8 5.3 4.8 4.3 3.8 3.2 2.7 2.2 1.7
E1 6.1 5.6 5.1 4.6 4.1 3.6 3.1 2.6 2.1 1.6
ratings
E2 5.9 5.5 5.0 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.6 2.1 1.6
Ibs./length 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4

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Flat Flat l( 'onlimied from page 37)

(from handicap to handicap on the same mark) (all other cases) specially designed by the author for horseracing, where a distance can be
1 2 3 estimated to fall in the A to E range.
Distances Maximum Weight advantage Weight/Class
weight for each 1 pound adjustment lilsewhere available are multi-purpose, all singing and dancing speed ratings
advantage rise in class factor applicable to almost anything that moves. The figures in these Rates Tables
5f -14 -0.4 +0.6 arc not a cheap 'socket set', they are the finest ratings available. This
6f -13 -0.4 +0.6 purpose-built tool, when mastered, can be considered to be the equivalent of
7f -12 -0.3 +0.7 an artist's favourite brush and it will earn you money.
Imile -11 -0.3 +0.7
1m If -10 -0.3 +0.7 Take for example, three 1m handicap races. Refer to the 'Rates Tables of
1m 2f -9 -0.3 +0.7 clock ratings':
Im3f -8 -0.2 +0.8 To put a figure on the clock rating, use a datum (starting point) of 200.
1m 4f -7 -0.2 +0.8
1m 5f -6 -0.2 +0.8 Salisbury:
1m 6f -4 -0.1 +0.9 Onestepforward won carrying top-weight of 9st 13 lb., officially rated 79 in
ImTf -2 -0.1 +0.9 a 0-80 handicap.
2 miles 0 0 +1
2m If +3 +0.1 +1.1 The time was 5 seconds slower than standard (after going corrections).
2m 2f +6 +0.2 +1.2
2m 3f +9 +0.3 +1.3 Salisbury's 1m has a Solidus D classification. *
2m 4f +13 +0.4 +1.4 ('"'Full list of flat racecourse Solidus classifications SMARTsig issue 10.07,
2m 5f + 17 +0.5 +1.5
July 2003. NHcourse classifications last issue, 10.08)
2m 6f +21 +0.6 +1.6
National Hunt National Hunt ImD =15.5 pounds/second.
(from handicap to handicap on the same mark) ((aU other cases)
1 2 3 5 x 15.5 = about 78 pounds slower than standard.
Distances Maximum Weight advantage Weight/Class
weight for each 1 pound adjustment Adjust to 9st, therefore Onestepforward ran 65 pounds slower than standard.
advantage rise in class factor
2 miles -10 -0.4 +0.6 Clock rating: 200 - 65 = 135.
2m 2f -9 -0.3 +0.7
2m 4f -8 -0.3 +0.7 Redcar:
2m 6f -7 -0.2 Twostepsback won carrying 8st 7 Ib. in a 0-100 handicap.
3 miles -6 -0.2 +0.8
3m 2f -5 -0.2 +0.8 The time was 4.2 seconds slower than standard (after going corrections).
3m 4f -4 -0.1 +0.9
3m 6f -3 -0.1 +0.9 Top-weight carried lOst, officially rated 100, Twostepsback is rated 79.
4 miles -2 -0.1 +0.9
4m 2f -1 0 +1 Re-dear's Im has a Solidus B classification,
4m 4f 0 0 +1
hull 16.5 pounds/second.
| Rates Tables of class & weight adjustments

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4.2 x 16.5 = 69 pounds slower than standard. Clock and class ratings

Adjust to 9st, therefore Twostepsbctck ran 76 pounds slower than standard. When clock ratings and class are both taken into account the result is a very
powerful method of assessing ability. In the chapter: 'Class' [SMARTsig
Clock rating: 200 -76= 124. serialisation, issue 10.05, page 18], it was stated that the class of a race can
be gauged by the highest official handicap mark in the race.
Warwick:
Stepaside beaten 3 lengths carrying 8st 12 Ib. in a 0-95 handicap. In the following example, the above three horses are to race against each
other: (The 'Rates Table of class and weight adjustments' is explained in the
The time was 3.3 seconds slower than standard (after going corrections). 'Class' chapter)

Top-weight carried lOst, officially rated 95, Stepaside is rated 79. • A 1m 0-115 handicap.
• Official top-rated horse is 114.
Warwick's 1m has a Solidus C classification. • All three are set to carry 7st 7 Ib..

ImC =16 pounds/second. Onestepforward rises in class from 79 to 114 = 35 Ib..

Winner was 3.3 x 16 = 53 pounds slower than standard. At 1m, 1 length = From the 'Rates Table of class and weight adjustments' (top row, 35 Ib. is
2.7 pounds. the max); at 1m a rise of 35 Ib. = 11 Ib. worse off.

3 lengths beaten x 2.7 = 8 pounds slower than winner. Onestepforward's clock rating was 135.

53 + 8 = 61 pounds slower than standard. The new clock and class rating is now: 135-11 = 124.

Adjust to 9st, therefore Stepaside ran 63 pounds slower than standard. Twostepsback rises in class from 100 to 114 = 14 Ib.

Clock rating: 200 - 63 = 137. Using the same table this time with the second row; at 1m a rise of 14 Ib. is:
14 Ib. x -0.3 = -4 Ib., or 4 Ib. worse off.
The pecking order is:
Twostepsback's clock rating was 124.
• Stepaside: 137
• Onestepforward: 135 The new clock and class rating is now: 124 - 4 = 120.
• Twostepsback: 124
Stepaside rises in class from 95 to 114 = 19 pounds.
Onestepforward is 11 pounds better than Twostepsback at 1m. This is 4
lengths. Using the same table again with the second row; at 1m a rise of 19 Ib. is:
Stepaside is 2 pounds better than Onestepforward at 1m. Less than a length. I') Ib. x -0.3 = -61b, or 6 Ib. worse off.

The ability range according to the clock is: 137 - 124 = 13 pounds. Si('i>(iside 's clock rating was 137.

The ability range according to their official handicap marks is nil; they are The new clock and class rating is now: 137 - 6 = 131.
all rated 79.

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The old pecking order before class adjustments was: The perfect place to
recycle your unwanted
• Stepaside: 137
• Onestepforward'. 135
racing books and betting
• Twostepsback: 124 paraphernalia.

The new pecking order after class adjustments is: Do your bit to save the
planet - and do someone a
• Stepaside 131 favour at the same time!
• Onestepforward 124
• Twostepsback 120
SWAPSHOP Is a FREE service to member:
The range of ability is approximately the same, but the big change is that So please make FULL use of this facility
Onestepforward comes off badly with both the other two horses.
FOR SALE:
He is 5 Ib. worse off with Stepaside and 7 Ib. worse off with Twostepsback. Betting for a Living Nick Mordin £7
From Aintree To York £7
The reason for this is that, of the three horses, Onestepforward is making the Writer travels to every course in the country detailing his experiences & bets
biggest rise in class. A fast time would have compensated but its time was Odds and Sods Ron Pollard £7 (for both titles)
the slowest. The autobiography ofLadbrokes odds compiler
AND The Ladbrokes Story (How Ladbrokes came to prominence).
This example shows emphatically why class and speed are so important.
Betting to Win Luke Johnson £3
Many punters would have put Onestepforward in with a good chance Covering Horses , Greyhounds, Football, Poker, Casinos etc.
against the other two. They would have been influenced by the factor that is Confessions of an Odds Compiler £3 (for both)
the most obvious: the drop in weight of 34 pounds from 9st 13 Ib. to AND How to make a killing from the Sporting Investment Revolution
7st 7 Ib..
The Value seeker £3 (for both)
A good time in good company is the most important measure of ability. AND The Flat racing aide memoir
(Detailed booklets understanding/interpreting form & value in horseracing)
In the example above, Onestepforward and Twostepsback both won their Betting systems that win £2
previous races so it is likely that they would have been raised a few pounds (Greyhound racing) (all prices include postage)
by the handicapper. Stepaside was beaten 3 lengths and may be dropped a
few pounds. Stephen Howe (Leamington Spa, Warwickshire) 07941845191

If this is the case, then use the formula described in the chapter: 'Class' with FOR SALE:
the third row of the table. It is repeated in the next example, but more of that Hack issues of the Racing Post. Most issues from Sept 2000 to present.
next month.. Results are marked on the race cards.

The Solidus by Davey Towey Andrew Kirk (London) Tel 07790 677991
. serialisation continues next issue. E m a i l : akirk2k@hotmail.com

September 2003 ! .'(tin 45

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Onestepforward is raised in class by 35 Ib. with a drop in weight carried

from 9st 13 Ib. To 7st 12 Ib. = 29 Ib.

-35Ib + (0.7 x +29 Ib.) = -15 Ib., . . . or 15 Ib. worse off.

THE Onestepforward's clock rating was 135.

The final clock and class rating is now: 135 - 15 = 120.

SOLIDUS Twostepsback is raised in class by 14 Ib. with a drop in weight carried from
8st71b.to7stl01b. = 11 Ib..

-141b + (0.7 x +11 Ib.) = -6 I b . , . . . or 6 Ib. worse off.

Twostepsback's clock rating was 124.

The final clock and class rating is now: 124 - 6 = 118.

Part 8 of our serialisation of the book by
Davey Towey explaining his innovative, Stepaside is raised in class by 19 Ib. with a drop in weight carried from
ground-breaking approach evaluating 8stl21b. to7st71b. = 19 Ib.
racetrack performances -19 Ib. + (0.7 x +19 Ib.) = -6 Ib., or 6 Ib. worse off.

THE SOLIDUS (part 8) Stepaside's clock rating was 137.

Davey Towey
The final clock and class rating remains: 137 - 6 = 131.
Further sample of calculations
The old pecking order before class adjustments was:

L ets say, Onestepforward had to carry a 5 Ib. penally bringing ils

weight to 7st 12 Ib.
Twostepsback was raised 3 Ib. bringing its weigh! ID 7st 10 Ib.
. . and Stepaside was dropped 21b so that its' position in the long handicap
is 7st 5 Ib., that is, 2 Ib. out of the handicap.
•
•
•
Stepaside:
Onestepforward:
Twostepsback:
137
135
124

The new pecking order after class adjustments, penalties and changes by the
For calculations, treat; handicapper is:
• rises in class and rises in weights as negative (actors.
• drops in class and drops in weights as positive factors. • Stepaside: 131
• Onestepforward: 120
The class formula: • Twostepsback: 118

Class movement + (adjustment factor x weight movement). The range of ability is the same, however Onestepforward comes off even

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worse with both the other two horses. He is now 9 Ib. worse off with both Clockwatching is now entered at 1m 16y on good ground at Chepstow (A
Stepaside and Twostepsback. classification).

The reason for this is that, of the three horses, Onestepforward is making the From the chart 1m 16yA is equivalent to 7fD, so the step up in trip from 6fD
biggest rise in class, carrying a penalty for winning in a much lower grade to 1m 16yA is equivalent to just 1 furlong.
and did not record a fast time to compensate.
With reference to the 'Rates Table of clock ratings' (see SMARTsig 10.09):
Where there is a finish of heads, short heads and necks, I use the following • 6fD = 18.5 pounds/sec.
scale: • 7fD= 17 pounds/sec.

Neck = 1/3rd of a length In percentage terms this is a step up of [(18.5 - 17) - 18.5] x 100% = 8%.
Head = 1/6th of a length Using the method in this chapter.
Short head = l/12thofalength
Ascot: 6fD = 18.5 pounds/sec.
The method is complicated at first but gets easier with familiarity. It is
simpler than finding collateral form lines which mean more horses, more Clockwatching ran 2.3 x 18.5 = about 43 pounds slower than standard.
races ,more cross-referencing, more work and less accuracy.
Adjusted to 9st, therefore Clockwatching ran 50 pounds slower than
Bookmakers love handicaps because in theory, they are all supposed to standard.
cross the line together. The depth of their love can be fathomed by their
sponsorship of them. Perhaps the reasons are that reading form is not taught By changing to the 1m 16yA course, the improvement likely is 8% of 50
on our mother's lap and speed ratings are yet to arrive on the National pounds = 4 pounds. Alternatively, if Clockwatching did not stay, he could
Curriculum. Whatever, the method above will help in all types of race. run 4 pounds worse.

Improvements in form It is possible therefore that by being raised in trip, Clockwatching can
improve 1.5 lengths with no help from the handicapper.
Using the charts in the following way can give a guide to improvement llmi
can be expected of a horse simply by running it in conditions where it is Example 2:
suited. The method is illustrated with two examples:
Lets say a horse called 'Trieshisbest' ran last time on good ground at
Example 1: Beverley over 5f (E classification) and was soundly beaten by 3 lengths.

Lets say a horse called 'Clockwatching' ran last time on good going at Ascot Trieshisbest carried 9st and the time of the winner was 4 seconds slower
over 6f (D classification) and won. than standard (after going corrections).

Clockwatching carried 8st 71b. and the time was 2.3 seconds slower than Trieshisbest had not run previously on such a testing 5f as that at Beverley
standard (after going corrections). so the trainer decides to find an easier trip.

The trainer decides to step Clockwatching up in distance. He feels that with Trieshisbest is now entered at 5f on good ground at Ayr (C classification).
another 1 furlong to travel at Ascot, Clockwatching would have won. He
ideally wants a 7fD trip. From the chart 5fC is equivalent to 4fE so the step down in trip from 5fE to
4fE is equivalent to as far as the 1 furlong pole at Beverley.

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Refering to the 'Rates Table of clock ratings':

• 5fE = 19.5 pounds/sec. • did these other horses run above
• 5fC = 20.7 pounds/sec. or below their best? ". . . in general
• are they improving? horses do run to
In percentage terms this is a step down of [(20.7 - 19.5) -s-19.5] x 100% = • were they better ridden?
6%. Again using the method in this chapter. • did they have a better draw? form . . .
. . . the list is long. however, it is
5fE = 19.5 pounds/sec.
Granted that these factors also apply
more a question
The winner was 4 x 19.5 = about 78 pounds slower than standard. with the clock method but they can be of what appears
confined to the horse we are interested
Three lengths beaten is: 3 x 3.3 = 10 pounds. in and no other horses need concern us.
in the form book
and how it is
Trieshisbest therefore ran 88 pounds slower than the standard. It is no wonder that horses do not seem
to run to form.
interpreted."
By changing to a 5fC course, the likely improvement is 6% of 88 pounds, or
in round figures about 5 pounds. The many reversals in sprint handicaps
illustrate this point very well.
It is possible therefore that given a more suitable trip, Trieshisbest can
improve 1.5 lengths with no help from the handicapper. Horses in these races appear to take turns in winning. Granted that sprinters
can go off the boil, but if they are kept sweet, the fact of the matter is that in
It is easiest to use the average pounds/length for C courses shown in the general, horses do run to form, it is more a question of what appears in the
'Rates Table of clock ratings' (see SMARTsig last issue 10.09) for Ihcse form book and how it is interpreted.
calculations because the distance beaten cannot be 100% accurate anyway.
People often think they know how to read the form book because they ask of
The method is only a guide because it attempts to make a prediction based it what they think are the right questions. The wrong question posing as the
on achievements over different trips. right question, will provoke the wrong answer posing as the right answer:

It also assumes that the 'also-rans' have been ridden out as vigorously us While on holiday a fine upstanding couple were chatting to another couple.
those involved in the finish. It is only possible to assess how close up a They were asking questions just trying to find out if they had something in
horse could have finished if ridden out, from watching the race. common and perhaps with a view of making a longer term friendship. They
were getting on well and after a short while felt confident of asking the
To get round these difficulties, it is recommended that as much racing as question: Are you two married?
possible is watched, preferably recorded, otherwise confine the method to
horses closely involved in the finish. The answer was yes and a picture was formed in their minds of what their
house and their friends looked like and what they did. They thought it would
The great advantage of using race times is that there is only one horse be nice to offer to exchange addresses. Whereupon the other couple abruptly
involved in each situation. The generally used method is to find collateral left. What was wrong?
form lines, but this inevitably leads to inaccuracies.
The other couple had honestly answered that they were married, but it was
When other horses are involved, you have to find out so many more details not to each other!
to assess the form properly:

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Speed Ratings A demonstration of going calculations derived from speed ratings is shown
below:
Without access to the going corrections for past races you have little idea as
to the real state of the ground. As previously stated the best method is to Example 1:
update a diary every couple of days, however I shall demonstrate an
alternative method as a safeguard. In a 5 furlong race:
• Winner carried 9 st
This method makes use of the Sporting Life speed figures which are • a SR (speed rating) figure of 34
prefixed by the initials SR: and appear after the race time in the form for • Race time is 1m 6.30s (a 6.30s).
each horse. This is how the SR numbers are calculated: (Reproduced by
kind permission of The Sporting Life) The datum of 10 st is 114 pts, therefore 9 st @ 1 Ib./pt = 100.
Flat Races 100-SR figure of 34 = 66
Datum = 114pts(10st) 66 + 20 pts/second for 5f = 3.3 seconds.
1 pound = 1 pt
3.3s is the adjusted 'a' figure: the number of seconds slower than the
5fto6fllOy standard time after going corrections have been applied.
1 second = 20 pts
1 length = 4 pts
The 'a' figure given in the form is 6.30s, which is the number of seconds
slower than the standard before going corrections.
Over6fllOyto9fllOy
1 second = 15 pts For calculation purposes, treat it as a negative number; that is: -6.3 seconds.
1 length = 3 pts
Therefore a going correction of 3 seconds has been added, which shows that
Over 9f HOy to less than 15f the horse has run better than the race time at first suggests.
1 second = 10 pts
1 length = 2 pts A going correction of+3 seconds for 5 furlongs is +0.6 seconds/furlong.
15f and over By referring to the 'going correction table' on page (reproduced on page 31)
1 second = 10 pts
this corresponds to yielding.
1 length = lpt
Example 2:
National Hunt Races
In a 1 mile race:
Datum = 100pts(12st)
• Winner carried 7st 7 Ib. (with an apprentice claiming 7 Ib.)
1 pound = lpt
• a SR figure of 29
All distances • Race time is 95s (b l.OOs).
1 second = 10 pts
1 length = lpt Discount the apprentice allowance, therefore weight = 8st.

The datum of 10 st is 114 pts, therefore 8st @ 1 Ib./pt = 86.

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Hard
Firm
Fast
Good to fast
Good
Good to yielding
Yielding
Yielding to soft
Soft
Heavy

Going Going Correction Band

Hard subtract 0.8 sees/furlong from a/b figure 1

Firm 0.6 1
Fast 0.4 2
Good to fast 0.2 2
86-SR figure of 29 = 57
Good Nil 3
57 -i- 15 pts/second for 1m = 3.8 seconds.
Good to yielding add 0.3 sees/furlong to a/b figure 3
3.8s is the adjusted 'a' figure: the number of seconds slower than the
Yielding 0.6 4
standard time after going corrections have been applied.
Yielding to soft 0.9 4
Soft 1.2 5
The 'b' figure given in the form is l.OOs, which is the amount of seconds
Heavy 1.5 5
quicker than the standard time before going corrections.

For calculation purposes, treat it as positive number; that is: +1 second.

The going correction table

In the table above

Therefore a going correction of 4.8 seconds has been subtracted, which
the 'a' figure is the time in seconds slower than
shows that the horse has not run quite as well as the race time at first
suggests. the standard
the 'b' figure is the time in seconds quicker than
the standard
A going correction of-4.8 seconds for 1 mile is -0.6 seconds/furlong.

Referencing the 'going correction table' printed in Chapter 'The

Going' [SMARTsig issue 10.04, page 34], but also reproduced again THE SOLIDUS NEXT ISSUE . . .
(opposite) for convenience.
Continuing our serialisation with
The author proposes more categories which would hopefully encourage . VALUE
greater accuracy. These are:

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The Each Way choice.

I would first like to say a few words why I have gone to such trouble to
include this chapter. Curiosity started it.

THE Every book I came across that included a discussion on the merits of each
way betting, arrived at a variety of different and contrasting conclusions.

SOLIDUS The proofs were sometimes elaborate and sometimes simplistic, and mostly,
on the face of it, convincing. So why did they not agree? I decided to tackle
the problem for myself from fundamentals with no preconceptions.

Disregarding the bookmaker's percentage for the moment. The first decision
1 made was, that it does not matter how many horses are in the race. If the
odds are 3/1 the field, then whether the field has 8 or 12 runners does not
matter, 3/1 are the chances of it winning.
Part 9 of our serialisation of the book by What then are the chances of it being placed? As it does not matter how
Davey Towey explaining his innovative, many are in the field, the only factors are the chances of winning and the
ground-breaking approach evaluating amount of places.
racetrack performances /- (win odds + 1) ~j
True place odds: < >- 1
I number of places )
THE SOLIDUS (part 9)
Davey Towey If you add up all the place odds in a race with no bookmakers percentage,
the figure is 300% (where there are 3 places); that is: 100% for each place.
VALUE To see what advantage there might be in each way betting, it is necessary to
compare the real chances of finishing placed with the odds that the
The solidus or per symbol. Can denote speed as in yards/second,

I
bookmaker is offering. This means that the advantage will change according
horseracing form as in pounds/length or bull as in tons/hour. to the percentage over-round of the book.

The true win odds in a 110% book: {(winodds + 1) x 110%} - 1

The solidus gold coin.

First introduced by the

Roman Emperor
The true place odds in a 110% book:* ((win odds + 1) x 110% -1
number of places
Constantine the Great.

Its tariff was 72 to the (•or convenience the bookmaker offers: win odds
pound and was renowned a set figure
for its true weight and value.

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To assess the advantage: {true odds - offered odds} x 100% Difference: = 37.69 - 6.92
true odds + 1 = 30.77%,
. . .say31%.
Using the last of the formulae above, it can be shown where the advantage
lies. The calculations are complicated and tedious so it was necessary to 31 % difference for 1 less runner in those size of fields is a massive amount.
write a computer program specifically for the task. The results are shown in
the Each Way Tables (pages 34 to 37) I f we are talking about a race that was originally 16 runners and then
became 15 runners after a withdrawal, then the race is also liable for a Rule
It is obvious from the tables that the advantage can lie with the punter. The 4 deduction.
percentage advantage applies to the place part of a bet. Where this
advantage is in favour of the punter, it can be offset against the percentage But, as Rule 4 deductions were designed to cover the bookmaker against
over-round in the bookmaker's win book. withdrawals, is it right that the punter should pay twice by also losing the
fourth place?
Take for example the 8 runner race where the percentage over-round is
115%. At odds of 2/1, the place odds advantage to the punter is 21.74%, say It is my opinion that if a price is taken when there are still the original
22%. Where place betting is available, the whole of the bet is 22% in favour sixteen runners in the race, then there should be a payout for fourth place
of the punter. regardless of non-runners.

When the bet is struck each way, this 22% advantage only applies to the Bear in mind the possibility of non-runners when taking early prices each
place half. The bookmaker has an advantage of 15% through the over-round way.
figure in his win book. Therefore the net advantage is 7% in favour of the
punter. On-course it can be difficult to find a bookmaker who will take each way
bets. Consequently those who do, have very little competition, which is
In 5,6 and 7 runner races, the punter has little in his favour at odds against. reflected by their shorter prices.
The picture can change where there are extra places. Take for example 16
runner handicaps. The percentage over-round is usually significantly higher Additionally, you will usually only get one fifth the odds instead of one
here, say for example, 135%. quarter in any race, and only three places instead of four in handicaps of
sixteen or more runners. Where the favourite starts odds-on you will often
By taking an each way price about a 3/1 chance here, the 35% in favour of get only one sixth of the odds.
the bookmaker can be reduced by 29.63% down to about 5%.
Rule 4 is not liked by many punters but it does operate fairly. The maximum
Examine two different races, first a 15 then a 16 runner handicap. Take for deductions from winnings is 75p in the £1, therefore you will still show a
example an over-round of 130% in both cases and a horse whose odds are profit.
4/1:
Compare this with bookmaker's rules on dead heats: they take half your
In the 15 runner handicap the bookmaker has the place odds in his favour by stake and decide that it goes on a loser (because you lose it). The other half
7.69% and the win book in his favour by 30%. A total of 37.69% to the is on at the original odds.
bookmaker.
This means that a successful selection whose odds are less than evens, will
In the 16 runner handicap the punter has the place odds in his favour by end up showing a loss. The simple, FAIR and obvious solution would be to
23.08% and the win book in the bookmaker's favour by 30%. A total of halve the odds of the two joint winners.
6.92% to the bookmaker. (Continued on page 38)

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EACH- WAY TABLES Overround = 105% •

Overround = 105% odds Advantage% 1
8 or more
5, 6 or 7 runners odds Advantage% Evens 7 1 .43 punter |
Evens 19.05 punter runners 6/4 48.57
6/4 4.76 2/1 33.33
Terms: 2/1 4.76 layer Terms: 5/2 22.45
one-quarter odds 5/2 11.56
one-fifth odds 3/1 14.29
3/1 16.67 7/2 7.94
7/2 20.63 4/1 2.86
1st & 2nd 4/1 23.81 1st, 2nd & 3rd 9/2 1.30 layer
places 9/2 26.41 places 5/1 4.76
5/1 28.57 11/2 7.69
11/2 30.40 6/1 10.20
6/1 31.97
Overround Overround = 115%
Overround = 107.5% Overround = 110% odds Advantage% odds Advantage%
odds Advantage% odds Advantage% Evens 63.64 punter Evens 56.52 punter
Evens 16.28 punter Evens 13.64 punter 6/4 41.82 6/4 35.65
6/4 2.33 6/4 Nil Nil 2/1 27.27 2/1 21.74
2/1 6.98 layer 2/1 9.09 layer 5/2 16.88 5/2 11.80
5/2 13.62 5/2 15.58 3/1 9.09 3/1 4.35
3/1 18.60 3/1 20.45 7/2 3.03 7/2 1.45 layer
7/2 22.48 7/2 24.24 4/1 1.82 layer 4/1 6.09
4/1 25.58 4/1 27.27 9/2 5.79 9/2 9.88
9/2 28.12 9/2 29.75 5/1 9.09 5/1 13.04
5/1 30.23 5/1 31.82 11/2 11.89 11/2 15.72
11/2 32.02 11/2 33.57 6/1 14.29 6/1 18.01
6/1 33.55 6/1 35.06
Overround = 120% Overround = 125% 1
Overround = 11 2.5% Overround = 115% odds Advantage % odds Advantage%
odds Advantage% odds Advantage% Evens 50.00 punter Evens 44.44 punter
Evens 11.11 punter Evens 8.70 punter 6/4 30.00 6/4 24.80
6/4 2.22 layer 6/4 4.35 layer 2/1 16.67 2/1 12.00
2/1 11.11 2/1 13.04 5/2 7.14 5/2 2.86
5/2 17.46 5/2 19.25 3/1 Nil Nil 3/1 4.00 layer
3/1 22.22 3/1 23.91 7/2 5.56 layer 7/2 9.33
7/2 25.93 7/2 27.54 4/1 10.00 4/1 13.60
4/1 28.89 4/1 30.43 9/2 13.64 9/2 17.09
9/2 31.31 9/2 32.81 5/1 16.67 5/1 20.00
5/1 33.33 5/1 34.78 11/2 19.23 11/2 22.46
11/2 35.04 11/2 36.45 6/1 21.43 6/1 24.57
6/1 36.51 6/1 37.89
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Overround = 115%
Overround = 110% odds Advantage%
odds Advantage% 16 or more Evens 117.39 punter
12 to 15 runners runners
Evens 70.45 punter 6/4 91.30
6/4 50.00 2/1 73.91
2/1 36.36 Terms: Terms: 5/2 61.49
5/2 26.62 one-quarter odds 3/1 52.17
3/1 19.32 one-quarter odds 7/2 44.93
7/2 13.64 4/1 39.13
4/1 9.09 1st, 2nd & 3rd 1st, 2nd, 3rd & 4th 9/2 34.39
9/2 5.37 places 5/1 30.43
5/1 2.27
places 11/2 27.09
11/2 0.35 layer 6/1 24.22
19/1 Nil Nil
6/1 2.60

Overround = 115% Overround = 120% Overround = 120% Overround = 125%

odds Advantage% odds Advantage% odds Advantage% odds Advantage%
Evens 63.04 punter Evens 56.25 punter Evens 108.33 punter Evens 100.00 punter
6/4 43.48 6/4 37.50 6/4 83.33 6/4 76.00
2/1 25.00 2/1 66.677 2/1 60.00
2/1 30.43
5/2 54.76 5/2 48.57
5/2 21.12 5/2 16.07
3/1 45.83 3/1 33.33
3/1 14.13 3/1 9.38 7/2 38.89 7/2 28.00
7/2 8.70 7/2 4.17 4/1 33.33 4/1 23.64
4/1 4.35 4/1 Nil Nil 9/2 28.79 9/2 20.00
9/2 0.79 9/2 3.41 layer 5/1 25.00 5/1 16.92
5/1 2.17 layer 5/1 6.25 11/2 21.79 11/2 14.29
11/2 4.68 11/2 8.65 6/1 19.05 6/1 12.00
6/1 6.83 6/1 10.71 14/1 Nil Nil 11/1 Nil Nil

Overround = 125% Overround = 130% Overround = 130% Overround = 135%

odds Advantage% odds Advantage% odds Advantage% odds Advantage%
Evens 50.00 punter Evens 44.23 punter Evens 92.31 punter Evens 85.19 punter
6/4 32.00 6/4 26.92 6/4 69.23 6/4 62.96
2/1 20.00 2/1 15.38 2/1 53.85 2/1 48.15
5/2 11.43 5/2 7.14 5/2 42.86 5/2 37.57
3/1 5.00 3/1 0.96 3/1 34.62 3/1 29.63
7/2 Nil Nil 7/2 3.85 layer 7/2 28.21 7/2 23.46
4/1 4.00 layer 4/1 7.69 4/1 23.08 4/1 18.52
9/2 7.27 9/2 10.84 9/2 18.88 9/2 14.48
5/1 10.00 5/1 13.46 5/1 15.38 5/1 11.11
11/2 12.43 11/2 8.26
11/2 12.31 11/2 15.68
6/1 9.89 6/1 5.82
6/1 14.29 6/1 17.58
')/! Nil Nil 15/2 0.22

November 2003 A/HI ,-nilii'l .'<«>)' 37

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(Continued from page 33) Getting the best odds (without a crystal ball!)
By referring to the Field Money Table, it can be seen how odds can be odds %exact approx odds %exact approx
expressed as a percentage. If the percentages of all the runners in a race are !()()/ 1 0.99%~ 1% " 21 1 33.33% 33%
totalled, the result is the race percentage. The excess over 100% is the 66 / 1 1.49% 1% 15/8 34.78% 35%
bookmaker's take and is usually referred to as the percentage over-round. 50 / 1 1.96% 2% 7/4 36.36% 36%
The method used to convert odds to a percentage is simple:-
40 / 1 2.44% 2% 13/8 38.10% 38%
Add 1 to the odds and divide into 100. For example: 33 / 1 2.94% 3% 6/4 40.00% 40%
28 / 1 3.45% 11 / 8 42.11% 42%
Evens 1+1 = 2... 100 + 2 = 50% 25 / 1 3.85% 4% 5/4 44.44% 44%
6/4 1.5+ 1 = 2.5 . 100-2.5 = 40% 22 / 1 4.35% 6/5 45.45% 45%
4/6 0.67+1 = 1.67 100- 1.67 = 60% 20 / 1 4.76% 5% 11 / 10 47.62% 48%
18/ 1 5.26% 21/20 48.78%
When the Field Money Table has been learnt by heart (like a bookmaker 16/1 5.88% 6% 1/1 50.00% 50%
will) it will be invaluable when assessing the following very important 14/ 1 6.67% 7% 20/21 51.22%
question: 12/ 1 7.69% 8% 10 / 11 52.38% 52%
II / 1 8.33% 8% 5/6 54.55% 55%
How is a horse likely to move in the market? 10 / 1 9.09% 9% 4/5 55.56% 56%
9/ 1 10.00% 10% 8 / 11 57.89% 58%
In a field where there are few runners, say up to six, there should be a
17/2 10.53% 4/6 60.00% 60%
bookmaker's percentage of no more than about 10%. I have frequently seen
opening shows in such races of well over 30% and as much as 50% in eight «/ 1 11.11% 11% 8 / 13 61.90% 62%
runner races. You would not take a bookmaker's odds of 7/2 about the roll 15/2 11.76% 12% 4/7 63.64% 64%
of a dice, but the equivalent value is what you are being offered with some 11 1 12.50% 13% 8 / 15 65.22% 65%
opening shows. 13/2 13.33% 13% 1 12 66.67% 67%
6/ 1 14.29% 14% 4/9 69.23% 69%
After the market has settled down there will be an overall lengthening of the 11/2 15.38% 15% 2/5 71.43% 71%
prices. It may therefore seem like your horse is on the drift, you lose 5 / 1 16.67% 17% 4 / 11 73.33% 73%
confidence and commit the sin of backing something else in the race, only to 9/2 18.18% 18% 1 /3 75.00% 75%
see your horse shorten later. 4/ 1 20.00% 20% 2/7 77.78%
7/2 22.22% 22% 1 /4 80.00%
It is when the book has reached an acceptable over-round figure that the 100/30 23.08% 23% 2/9 81.82%
time has come to get on. There is not much time, this is when I he
3/1 25.00% 25% / 5 83.33%
professional money goes on and the price will then shorten.
11/4 26.67% 27% 16 85.71%
There are other factors to consider: 5 12 28.57% 29% 11 87.50%
95 / 40 29.63% /8 88.89%
If your horse is not one of the market leaders there is every chance that the 9/4 30.77% 31% /9 90.00%
opening show represents good value for your horse. In this case there is no K5 / 40 32.00% 1 / 10 90.91%
need to wait.
(('tm/iiiiu'Jon /Kige 40) The Field Money Table

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(Continuedfrom page 38) Il could be withdrawn, il is well worth placing the bet there and then and
N i i l l i ' i IMC a K u l e 4 deduction, than taking the poor value that is certain to be
There may be a steamer that is contracting in the market sharply. To on n l l e i allcrwards.
maintain the percentage overround, some prices should lengthen. If they do
not, then you are being ripped off. Ui-nicmhci that a bookmaker has an incredibly advantageous position in that
he can sec how much money is coming in, who it is coming from and where
Sometimes a ding-dong battle between two camps develops. They are il is ).',oing. Through their network, they also know what is likely to happen
determined to make their horse the favourite. They seem to think that while uiiil lake precautions. These precautions include, backing it themselves on-
their horse has not yet achieved the shortest price in the market there is still course just sufficiently to remove the value, refusal to take a bet, accepting
some value left. If your fancy is not one of these two, a fantastic price can bets only to small stakes and accepting bets at SP only. If you are on at SP,
result. you are unlikely to have a value bet if there are many people thinking the
same way as you.
Outsiders odds are often adjusted to balance the over-round. They may be
shortened (often with a flurry) just with the purpose of preventing the book The punter should realise just how much power the large bookmaking "'_''
from going over-broke. These changes are recorded and transmitted off- superstores have. The superstore analogy is correct up to a point. A
course, where it can then provoke a response from betting shop punters superstore is not only a large retail operation, such is its buying power, on
looking for a likely outsider. many occasions it can control the wholesale prices also. This is where the
resemblance ends. A superstore passes on the benefits of lower wholesale
It takes a lot of experience to read the market. You will get a feel for certain prices to its customer who then also gets the reduced prices. When the big
ranges of prices in certain types of race. For example: I have found that in concerns are operating on-course, the object is to remove the value. The
certain circumstances, odds of around 8/1 are a come-on. The odds are value can have gone even before the opening show appears in the shops.
sufficiently low to prevent the horse being regarded as an outsider, but its
chances of winning are known to the bookmakers as being actually less than Helling is shopping with a difference. If the product is good then you can
a 12/1 shot in the same race. keep it. If it is faulty then, tough - you have wasted your money. If you
dcline a horse whose chances of winning are minimal to be one of these
With experience you will be able to recognise the warning signals, and also faulty products, then the bookmakers make a lot of money out of punters
be able to back your horse at the best odds, or at near best odds, for most of who buy faulty items. The bookmakers make the prices so they are very
the time. well placed to know what the chances of these products are. If a good old-
fashioned betting coup is landed, there is so often an outcry from the
If two horses have a good chance of winning why force yourself to choose bookmakers. Basically, all that has really happened is that someone has
between them. The best value bet in this situation is the Tote Dual Forecast. managed to obtain an excellent bargain from them. There are few
The same goes for three horses. The best value bet here is the Tote Trio. complaints when the coups fail.
Why the Tote do not make their Trio available on more races I cannot
imagine. There are a hundred things that can go wrong between leaving the yard and
crossing the finishing line (answers on a postcard please!), so it needs luck
It is worth noting that if one of the market leaders is withdrawn and there is lo complete a race never mind winning it. Always allow a point for luck.
sufficient time to form a new market, this is effectively a second opening This is a complete argument against backing at odds on, there is no
show. I have discussed earlier just how poor the value can be in an opening malhematical proof required. •F777T7777?
show. In the case of a late withdrawal this second opening show will be
almost the same as SP.
Next month The Solidus serialisation continues with
If a market leader bolts or is playing up and it looks like there is a possibility the 'value' theme . . .

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I in . i .in he expressed as: 0.8/1, 1/1, 1.5/1, 3/1 and 5/1 respectively.

I M I M I . I ilic leliirn; add I point to each price and then multiply them all:
1.8x2x2.5x4x6
THE = 216.
Return to a £1 stake is £216.

I lii'ii'liiu- (he odds of landing the accumulator are 215/1.

SOLIDUS \ |I|.IIT •! leg accumulator at win odds of;

2/1,5/2,4/1 and 5/1,
(all at one-quarter the odds a place)

I In- place odds arc 1/2, 5/8, Evens and 5/4 respectively.

UK-SI- ran he expressed as: 0.5, 0.625/1, 1/1, 1.25/1 respectively.

Part 10 of our serialisation of the book by I'n I'iiul the return; add 1 point to each price and then multiply them all: My
Davey Towey explaining his innovative, I'lik'iikilor says;
ground-breaking approach evaluating 1.5x1.625x2x2.25
racetrack performances = 10.97.
Return to a £1 stake is £10.97p, or odds of 9.97/1

THE SOLIDUS (part 10) Si'iDiidly, you might enjoy the following elegant trick:
Davey Towey
l o work mil the number of combinations in multiple bets; for example: how
i n . i n s iiehles are there in a Heinz? The answer is easy when the following
VALUE (continued) nu-lliDil is used:

T
he last instalment looked at value odds, bookmaker overrounds and
\ I I c - i i i / is a multiple bet of 6 horses so write the numbers 1 to 6 out in
each-way betting. We move on . . . .
( i i i l i - i . thus:
1x2x3x4x5x6
MULTIPLE BETS 6x5x4x3x2x1

Due to the popularity of doubles, trebles and multiple bets such as the
A i i r l i k - is I horses. Therefore, delete the first three numbers from the top
Trixie, Yankee and Canadian, here are some time-saving tips:
mil i l u - l u i l l o m . Then work out the resulting sum, thus:
Firstly, as an optimist; how to work out the rewards:
4x5x 120
= 20 trebles in a Heinz.
If you have a win 5-leg accumulator with prices of; for example: I V ' X
4/5, Evens, 6/4, 3/1 and 5/1.

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The table below left shows the full list of combinations in the common I'l I , , I" i l>v increasing the stakes on the first runner and playing up part
multiple bets. nl i l n « m i m i c s on (he second - you are keeping your options open,
Illi i i m i r i n . i v happen in between where you would normally have
7- 6- 5- 4- Treb Dou- Tot- I' " .1 ..in Illliul.

folds folds folds folds -les bles als

Trixie 1 3 4 In i i . . I .11 h W;iy' chapter (last issue) I demonstrated how the bookmaker's
Yankee 1 4 6 11 15 i i i . i j ' i - over-round could be reduced or even turned to the punter's
Canadian 1 5 10 10 26 31 illl\ illll i ••
Heinz 1 6 15 20 15 57 63
Goliath 1 7 21 35 35 21 120 127 i . . i i .1,1, i .1 double in two 16 runner handicaps. Being realistic, lets say the
0 . nound is 125% in one race and 130% in the other, with prices of 3/1 in
hoili ruses. I Ising the 'Each Way Table' from last month (on page 37)
To remember totals, note that the totals after singles are also included
(shown to the right of the main table) is: double the previous total, plus 1 1 IK \\ in double is:
1.25x1.30x100%
If you back in doubles and trebles, etc., remember that the value is also = 162.5%.
multiplied. If it is in the bookmaker's favour as a single bet, it will be in his An iidviinlage of 62.5% to bookmaker.
favour much more as a double.
I In- place advantages to punter are 33.33% and 34.62% respectively.
To work out just how much; multiply the over-rounds for each race.
I In- place double is:
For example: a double in two races where the over-rounds are 120% and 1.3333x1.3462x100%
125% is: = 179.5%.
1.20x1.25x100%
= 150%. An advantage of 79.5% to punter.
The odds are now therefore 50% in the bookmaker's favour.
I In- ud advantage each way, is therefore 17% to punter.
To combat this, you must make doubly sure that you are choosing value
selections, that is: selections whose odds are longer than you consider they
should be. Making betting pay
Conversely, if you have managed to spot two value selections and consider You have a duty to your shareholders to do your best to make your betting
the odds to be in your favour by 20% and 25%. Then a double will give you I I . I Y These are your family.
even greater value: that of 50%.
I he hesl way that I know of to do this is:
I am not recommending abandoning the single bet. Far from it, because this
is the safest method. When there is a value double, dip your bread and play 1 ] Restrict your number of bets.
the double as well.
H is no use staying in a betting shop all day having a small amount on every
Put the first horse to run as a single and also as a double with the later I K . I Ins is the same as playing a fruit machine into which you will always
runner. If the first wins, you do not need to back the later one as a single, i mi hack your winnings . . . and more besides.
that is, only 2 bets instead of 3.

46 December 2003 Mill fVII/ICI .'{1(1 I 47

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I
2] Specialise. > i ' M i l , i | i | > i - . i i . Ihcic will be fewer horses with the petrol left to go for
i l n in .11 iliir.r l i n d l y drawn can still do it coming from behind.
Know and understand fully a certain type of race; for example: two-year-
olds, sprint handicaps, selling races to name just three. II ill lir.! \ n i i ilon'l succeed, you have probably underestimated the extent of
Ihi i ' i " i ' i . i n 1 I I . ii I n s l you do succeed, you're a lucky ***!
3] Search for value.
«. | 't get greedy.
One way of doing this is to look for false "If you are not I i . |> '.mil -.(.ikes iii proportion to your
favourites. These come in many guises but
are very often surrounded by a lot of hype. getting value, l i i i n k \ c n i r.ninol win all the time, but
The second favourite in such a race is very the best you s m i iini'.l l>c able ID back the winners "A correct
often the one worthy of most \\ In ii l l u - \ ionic.
consideration. can possibly interpretation
do in the long 7] Assess the facts. of the facts
When you find a value bet increase your
stake in proportion to the odds. run, is break I hi', i', yum chance to score over based on what
even" rs ri s hoilv else. A correct interpretation a horse has
However you must be sure that the price is ol i l u - liicls based on what a horse has
too long due to factors that you can nlu'iiily nchicvccl is the best pointer to its already
explain. If you are not getting value, the best you can possibly do in the i- rhiiiuvs. achieved is the
long run, is break even, and then you pay your betting tax.
( ' i m | e < l i n e . i i i . l hype can be so infective,
best pointer to
4] Take one race at a time. Hi ii a horse w i t h by far the best its future
i u-ilciilials on past form, can go virtually
If you back in doubles and trebles you cannot take advantage of price unnoticed. chances."
movements. Unless you can take an early price you are stuck with SP.
8) Keep records.
Bear in mind that something may happen after you have placed your bet
which would have altered your selection; for example: the going may I In i.iciii)i. press do not include the effect of the draw in past races in the
change. Im in l«i each horse. At some courses the placing of the stalls determines the
• II. • i c i l l l u - draw.
5] Consider all possibilities/probabilities.
I i i', i l n i r l u i e necessary to keep a diary recording the stalls position. Keep a
This is difficult but if you have followed the advice in 1). and 2). you will i i i m i l nl the noing after going corrections have been applied.
have more time.
U | Post Mortems.
Consider how the race will be run. Is it doomed to be unlucky in
from the outset? Are some negative factors really important? II MI, hnr.i- iluhf i win was it;
• unlucky?
For example: • did it have an off day?
If the pace is likely to be fast, it will surely find out the non-stayers and in • or was it your fault?
the case of big fields.

. ,,,H
48 December 2003

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Analyse the outcome and learn from it. If you have restricted your bets you \ I K rpoei w i l l spend on average £25 on travel and admission to the
will have more time for post mortems and slowly the light will begin to i I I I I I M e q u i v a l e n t lo the tax on five £50 bets off-course.
dawn.
II ( I n l i i - i i i i i | ' . man was getting an even break, the bookmakers would go out
10] Don't be a mug. • •I I ii II the information in this book stops the betting man from going
i mi nl I in 1 , mess, entertains, and stimulates a greater interest in the sport, then
Mug money is the icing on the cake to bookmakers and they certainly have i l n * M i n i was worth it.
a sweet tooth. All I get off the tooth fairy is a shiny sixpence.
\ll -.mi', nl people, especially punters, are becoming owners. Owners,
When she visits your friendly, local bookie, she leaves a great wad of flyers I ' M M i , i . .mil sponsors are the source of the cash input which supports one of
under his pillow! Mi. inp ti-ii industries in this country. It must be a priority of anyone who has
i l n |imvei, to nurture the goodwill of all three and treat them with the
Conclusion . (iiisulcration.

How a bookmaker basically makes a living is to offer 10/11 heads or tails I Ins w i l l in inrn, benefit everyone connected with the sport. • •
on the flip of a coin or 9/2 any number on the roll of a dice.
W h i l e mi the subject of conclusions; the first past the post is not always the
This is fine in principle, but when you add to this betting tax and all the Imiil oiileome. :
other pitfalls outlined previously, then the punter should be under no
illusion as to how difficult it is to make betting pay. No I would like to take this opportunity of commenting on controversial • »
disqiiahfieations. •:
If the pitfalls can be avoided then enjoyment of the sport, from the betting
point of view, can be so much enhanced. DISQUALIFICATIONS

Racing is a fascinating sport and The s i t u a t i o n at present is: Did a horse move towards another? If yes, then:
betting on the result adds an I Mil Hie i ider lake sufficient avoidance action? If no, then: was there
extra dimension. Inlei leu-nee (no matter how little)? If yes, then: demotion.

The punter should play to win, keeping strictly to I lius l>v a process of, if then this, if then that, the stewards are left with no
his strategy, with a clear vision, unclouded and i i l l e i n n l i v e . This process is so logical that a computer could understand it.
unconfused by the litter of information,
that lays strewn in his path. I l i m cvct, (lie llcxibility of looking at the outcome and saying that the result
I Ilio most equitable, is absent. Horseracing, like many other sports, is a
You will hear people tell you that it is lii'H. physu-al game and as such requires a refereeing system able to cope. In
impossible to make a profit from betting l o o i l i a l l , our national game, a striker can handle the ball.
off-course. It is true that the profit margin
is less. i in i . l > \ definition, against the rules, yet play can continue if it was
m u n i , i i h o i i . i l lii a game of snooker where a player handles the ball, he will
Betting tax and lack of the choice that is In i > . ii Ji .i .1
available on-course are the two factors which
affect returns in the shops. I In i I I I leu-nee is that snooker is not a fast, physical game and therefore the
ml. i i n r . i lake a far higher priority.

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If a jockey is intent on getting the A cautionary tale from an exchange user.

maximum from his horse (which
unlike a cue or a ball, has a mind of
its own), then it is unreasonable to BETTING AFTER THE RESULT IS
say that failing to pull a whip
through to the correct hand amounts KNOWN
to intentional interference. Exchanges Player

etc ill SMARTsig we've been gathering the views of betting

H
In professional, physical sports
generally, the referee is an CM linii^c players for a synopsis in a future issue. Among the varied
experienced person with a sense of mvoimls though was a tale that warranted passing on immediately,
fair play and a rule book to guide Hi. in t i l Ihc message will remain, for the time being, anonymous.
him.
II Ottobtr 2003
The best referees balance one \l>iirfliif!()i>liinis.co.uk recently allowed me to lay bets and place bets
against the other. II 1 1 H ihf horses had crossed the line. This happened on two separate
,•. , ,i \nnis mi I/S racing. In one instance I was able to turn a certain loss
An alternative 'if then' procedure lulu it fi-rtain profit hy placing a bet, and the other I was on the winner
could be: if the jockey has gained ,in,l n'n\ ilit'n iihli' to lay outstanding requests for other horses.
an unfair advantage or acted
dangerously then disqualify. II hni'\ IIIOIT, tlif bets were never voided! I can't say why it happened, nor
it has since been sorted out as I stopped using them for US
If he has acted incorrectly but won on merit, then apply a points system . I didn't want to be tempted by any other such instances as it
similar to driving offences. Just as this book goes to press, there may be 'I feel morally correct to take money from other punters when clearly
changes for the better in the offing - an ending on a bright note. — ll'\ u\ mi-level a playing field as is possible.

In snyliifi that, they should be adhering to the following rule - unless

l>ellliif> in running (not available on US racing at the moment anyway),
The Solidus serialisation concludes next issue with a summary. (i/irr/rv he sure to cancel all unmatched offers and requests once the race
Our sincere thanks to Davey Toweyfor his support throughout the series. hn\ sinned. On the other hand you shouldn 't HA VE to do that.

It's kimlii like saying, when not personally guarding your money at the
REMEMBER! hiiiil, always be sure to withdraw it all. It's clearly the banks responsibility
That item you were going to send in for publication? to ensure the .security of your deposits.
Get pen to paper (or fingers to keyboard) and send it in.
All contributions are rewarded with additional free
subscription months added to your term. i ........ lU-d ilic above tale by email direct to SportingOptions asking for
- 1 n i oniMK'iit . . . one month later and they have still yet to respond.
The sooner you get it done, the longer it will be
before you're asked to renew. i i . i . l i i i u n a l bookmakers, accepting bets after the result is known does
And regular contributors get free on-going subs! m i l l i e . i i l n - h i m in fact they actually make a little extra money through
H i ' i i I M - I I rniage lake. . . . .Exchange players, beware!! _

52 December 2003 53

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