DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION
Structure
2.0 . Objectives
2.1 Introduction
2.2 Aging Process
2.3 Manifestations of Demographic Transition
2.4 Impact of Demograpahic Transition
2.4.1 Impact on Health
2.4.2 Social Outcomes of Demographic Transition
2.4.3 Economic Aspects of Demographic Transition
25 Let Us Sum Up
2.6 Key Words
2.7 Answers to Check Your Progress
2.0 OBJECTIVES
After going through this unit, you would be able to:
Define the impact of global demographic transition;
Explain the present state of population aging in India and the causes of national
concern;
Identify the different manifestations of this demographic transition; and
Describe impact on individuals and society.
2.1 INTRODUCTION
In the previous unit you have already learnt about the phenomenon of population aging
and demographic transition that is taking place all Over the world. In this unit you will
learn about the emerging issues associated with this phenomenon and the various
manifestations of the demographic transition that are taking place. This text is a brief
summary of the impact of aging on society and on individuals. It explains how the rapidly
increasing speed of population aging is causing serious concern in all countries of the
world.
2.2 AGING PROCESS
All living beings go through the process of aging, from birth to death. Aging is a highly
individual process and as such the difference between biological and chronological age
varies widely among individuals. No two persons grow old in the same way. For instance,
there is a sixty years old man who is perfectly healthy and active. In the same society, one
can also see a sixty years old who is fragile in health with several chronic diseases and is
mostly bed-ridden. At the heart of this demographic transition has been the growth in the
number and proportion of older persons. Over the past few years, the world's population
has followed the transition path from a state of high birth and high death rates to one
characterised by low birth and low death rates. This demographic transition is not always
viewed as a blessing by many developing countries as it is often considered as one more
additional burden competing for scarce resources.
Demography and Wpes of Aging
Epidemiology of Aging
Aging is a biological process and is always associated with physiological decline affecting
all organ and physiological systems. This is generally known as physiological aging.
Most often the aging individuals become victims of certain chronic degenerative disorders
like diabetes, hypertension, coronary and cerebral vascular disorders. These are examples
of pathological aging.
2.3 MANIFESTATIONS OF DEMOGRAPHIC
TRANSITION
Aging of populations is nearly universal. It has often been described as a grand success
story mainly due to the dramatic improvements in health and medical services and control
over infectious diseases, which have brought about substantial decreases in the mortality
rates, while simultaneously resulting in rising life expectancies. Today, the more developed
countries have undergone change to become more aged societies. They are faced with
the problem of elderly boom.
Demographic trends indicate that developing countries are aging faster than the developed
countries. By the year 2025, the proportion of the elderly population to the total population
is projected to be more than 12 per cent, and nearly 71 per cent of the world's elderly
population is likely to reside in the developing countries. Asia would account for more
than half of the world's elderly population by the year 2025 (United Nations 1989). While
industrialised countries like France or Belgium took 80- 100 years to double their population
aged 60 + from 9 per cent to 18 per cent, nations with emerging economies, especially in
East Asia and Latin America, are doubling to the same level in 20-30 years.
The global phenomenon of aging of population afflicts India also. However, this is still in
its early phase and is expected to gain momentum in the coming decades.
"The absolute numbers of the elderly will be mind boggling due to rapid growth in a short
time span. In India, during 100 years from 196 1, while the total population will climb five
times, the number of elderly would soar 13 times and reach the figure of 340 million. We
have been talking of a fourth India being added to the post- independence population of
the country after crossing the one billion mark at the turn of the century. Another half
century later, it would be a fifth India would be a fully grey India."
Within this broad demographic picture, four major trends can be discerned. First, there is
a growing tendency for the world's elderly to be concentrated in developing countries.
Second, given the age patterns, growth of the aged population implies a greater increase
in the number of older women than of older men. Third, is the increase in dependency
ratio. The aging population often creates the problem of decline in the number of people
in the workforce in proportion to non-workers, as elderly are not economically productive.
Fourth, women not only outnumber men but also outlive them in virtually all countries.
2.4 IMPACT OF DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION
As you have already learnt in Unit 1 of this block, demographic transition results in
change of the population structure from pyramid to pillar. There is a substantial increase
in the older persons. The impact of the increase in this can be described on health,
economic and social scenario of a community or country.
2.4.1 Impact on Health
Life expectancy represents the mean length of time an individual is expected
to live if prevailing mortality conditions persist throughout the person's life. Increase
in life expectancy along with the high growth of general population is mainly
responsible for rapid increases in the elderly population. Over the years, due to
increase in life span, the morbidities and disabilities in elderly have also increased.
This requires us to gear our health infrastructure not only to deal with the increasing
number of morbidities and disabilities but also to produce a workforce to deal with Manifestations of
Demographic Transition
this special population t h e geriatric population. As you will learn from Block 1 of
Course 2 , the assessment and management of elderly differs from that of the young,
not only because their pathologies and presentations vary but also because their approach
towards health facilities and its follow up are different. You also need to realise that for
management of the elderly, an integrated approach of various disciplines like medical and
social are required as well as multiskilling oneself with skills like good clinical signs,
counselling skills etc. You will read about the different health related to the elderly in
Courses 2 of this programme. Hence, these shall not be detailed here.
Increase in the life expectancy at birth coupled with the increase in the incidence of old
age will have important implications for planning of social welfare and care provisions.
Increase in longevity implies that elderly will now place greater stress on families since
they were living longer and had a higher probability of experiencing disability. At the
same time, the responsibility for providing care would be divided among fewer children
given declining fertility rates, and those children in all likelihood would be working and
likely to be more geographically distant. Increasing life expectancy and longevity will
become a cause for concern because of the consequences they are likely to have on the
durability of the social security system;education, housing, transportation, medical and
social services and family, support, as well as on the structure of the future labour market.
Check Your Progress 1
State True (T) or False (F):
a) There has been a transition from a state of high birth and high
death rates to low birth and low death rates. (TF)
b) The global phenomenon of aging will not effect India. (Tm
c) The increase in life expectancy and increase in the elderly will
effect the social welfare and care provisions. (TF)
2.4.2 Social Outcomes of Demographic Transition
One of the important social outcome is single elderlies. A large proportion is single,
owing to the death of the spouse, with divorce or separation from marriage partner being
negligible. According to the 1981 Census, 78 per cent males were married while only 35
per cent females were married. This indicates the presence of a high proportion of widows
among the population. The incidence of widowhood is much higher among the aged
females than among male counterparts. This trend is in keeping with the situation
prevalent all over the world. The absolute number of elderly widowed women in India is
very large-4.8 million in 1991. With advancing age, widowhood rates are likely to be
high.
A major life event among the elderly is that of widowhood. Women's life expectancies
are longer than those of men, and the tendency for men to marry women younger
than them means that widowhood is much more likely for women. Of the several
transitions that are encountered by women during their life-course, widowhood is
perhaps most traumatic. This transition carries with it potentials that disturb physical
and mental well being of widowed individuals, thus have an impact on health.
When we think of the elderly we generally do not think of them as workers. Instead,
we think of them in terms of old, sick, disabled and retired. Justifiably, one of the
more persistent anxieties experienced by older adults relates to income security.
Inflation, with its effect on the price of commodities has increasingly limited buying
power. While money does not always produce happiness, it is related to satisfaction
in later life. The need for food, clothing, shelter, recreation, transportation, and the
ability to buy gifts for grandchildren and family members does not decline with age.
A large majority of the elderly persons in India, contrary to expectations, continue
to work. Retirement is mandatory only for those persons working in the organised
sector of the economy. The workforce in this sector comprises less than one-tenth of
the country's total workforce. The vast majority of the workforce is engaged in the
unorganised sector, for which economic insecurity is a major concern. They continue
D e m o ~ r a p h yand working well into advanced ngcs, till their health and physical abilities permit them.
Epidemiology of Aging
Thus there i s n o concept of formal age of retirement for them. The formal labour-
force participation to drop off between the age of 60 and 64.
All over the world, including India, agriculture is a major source of livelihood for an
overwhelming majority of the population. Thus, underlining the rural character of its
economy. In 1991, out of the main workers in the age category of 60 and above, 7 8 per
cent of elderly lllales and 84 per cent of elderly females were engaged in the agricultural
sector. However, only two per cent of elderly males and three per cent of elderly females
were engaged in the household industry sector. While 20 per cent elderly males and 12
per cent elderly females were gainfully employed in activities such as manufacturing and
service including professional and technical jobs.
The elderly who spent most of their working lives in the unorganised and informal sector
do not receive pensions when they are unable io work and call it a day. This has significance
for their quality of life in that they have difficulties in meeting their basic needs. As a
result, they are likely to suffer from malnutrition, leading to depression and mental
confusion. Not only does poverty affect a substantisl proportion of older people, but
also when it does, it is likely to be an enduring experience. The high incidence of poverty
and low incomes among older people is reflected in other measures of deprivation. The
majority of elderly people still live in or o n the margin of poverty.
Another pressing problem of old age is dependency. Dependency, like many other
phenomena of aging, is seen primarily as a product of decline and deterioration. Aging is
characterized by a shift from independence to dependence as a result of loss of
income or loss of spouse or loss of physical mobility either single or in combination.
Disengagement from jobs is manifesting itself in decline in authority, greater alienation
and economic invariability. The shift from independence to dependence often signals
changes in the ability of an elderly individual to control and influence the behaviour of
others. This type of power is differentially distributed amongst the elderly. The elderly
suffer a double disadvantage becausz they have neither individual nor social power.
Dependency can o c c u r in multiple domains (e.g. mental, physical, economic
dependence, or a combination of these). It is important to recognise that dependence is
not unitary phenomenon and that individuals may exhibit a unique configuration of one
or more types of dependency, depending on their context. Dependency is not necessarily
synonymous with old age. You will read more about dependency in Block 5 of Course 1 .
The aging of the population has brought with it a new concern about the relations between
age groups.
2.4.3 Economic Aspects of Demographic Transition
The demographic 'dependency ratio' also called the 'support ratio', is commonly used by
demographers and social scientists to assess the impact of age structure on economic
well being. Child dependency ratio, elderly dependency ratio and total dependency ratio
are frequently employed. These ratios express the proportion of assumed non-working
population, namely, children (0-14) andlor elderly (60years and plus) to working population,
namely, adults (15-59). There has been a steady increase in the elderly dependency ratio
from 9.8 in 1951 to 11.3 in 1991. Aging of population is identified with the increasing
population of less productive population, which becomes economically and socially more
and more dependent with further increase in age. It indicates a gradual shift of the
dependency burden from younger to older population over a time period, with several far-
reaching policy implications in future years.
Manifestations of
2.5 LET US SCTM UP Demographic Transition
Aging occurring universally in all populations has resulted in change in the demographic
picture from pyramid to pilar. This demographic transition has a marked impact on the
health, economic and social aspects with an increase in the life expectancy. There is an
increase in the morbidities and disabilities with a decrease in birth rate. On the other hand
there are fewer children to look after their aging parents.
One of the major social problems is that of single elderlies most of them are wome& There
is also an increase in the dependency ratio of elderlies as a result of the i n c r h s e in
morbidities and disabilities.
Elderly specially in our country work till advanced ages. Also most of them work in the
informal and unorganized sector and do not get pensions. Economic dependency ratio is
an issue of growing concern.
2.6 KEY WORDS
Aging : This is a biological process through which al! living
organisms go through from birth to death. Aging in human
being is a highly individual process and is associated with
biological decline, the extent of which differ from one
individual to another.
Dependency Ratio : It is expressed as percentage of population who are
economically non-productive to the population which are
economically productive. As the country ages, the percentage
of dependent population increases at the expense of
economically productive population.
Life Expectancy : It is the expected number of years that a newborn individual
would live in the midst of environmental factors which are
existing in the country. It is expressed as life expectancy at
birth or at any fixed age (e.g. life expectancy at 60 years). The
life expectancy in India of an individual at birth is 64 years for
males and 66 years for females.
Population Aging : It means the demographic process in which the aging
individuals consistently increase in number as compared to
the total population. As a result, the percentage of individuals
of 60 years and above of the total population increase every
year.
Widowhood : The period through which an elderly woman passes after the
death of her husband. This is usually a period of economic
dependence, social isolation and physiological decline in a
woman's life.
2.7 ANSWERS TO CHECK YOUR PROGRESS
Check Your Progress 1
a) T
b) F
C) T
Check Your Progress 2
a) women.
b) unorganized and informal.
c) 11.3.
I,,
NOTES
