Title: Production of cotton decline in Pakistan
Research Question: why has the production of
cotton declined over the last 10 years in Pakistan?
Abstract:
Pakistan's agriculture points on cotton for recognition of being 'white gold'. Therefore, it plays a
critical role in revenue generation for farmers and consequently it enhances the economy of the
country. Although, with the passage of time, the technology of germplasm has developed, and the
usage of BT cotton varieties has resulted in tremendous improvement in the seed cotton yield.
On the other hand, even though cotton yields have reveled in previous years, cotton harvesting
stabilized in the last short time as several factors lie behind this discrepancy. Insect pests limit
cotton production globally and several attempts at insecticide use have been done as
management options. Together with these factors, unavailability of superior quality seeds, cotton
diseases like cotton leaf curl and environmental stresses like drought and heat make farmers in
Pakistan challenge-ridden Labor-top-supply processes and unstable pricing striations are other
palettes that participants struggle with. The chapter is mainly intended to dwell on the topic of
cotton production in Pakistan that is associated with the key factors such as its importance, crop
production and yield statistics, cropping systems diversity, the current trends in germplasm
enhancement, and production strategies. It also researches on enormous production problems e.g.
fertilizer consumption, pest control and harvesting and processing complexities. While
challenges will endure in reviving the flailing cotton sector (such as low prices, diseases, and
lack of incentives), the chapter also identifies ways for improvement in the value chain. Amid the
exacerbating decrease in cotton production over the past few years, this research paper is
intended to delve deeper into the factors contributing to cotton production drop reduction. Using
both statistical analysis of numerical data and qualitative research, the study identifies factors,
such as the transformation of agricultural practices, environmental problems, policy matters,
technological evolvement and the social and economic aspects that lay behind the decline. Its
effects on the national economy and industry, employment and also, informal trading in case of
this decline is also highlighted. Finally, the paper presents solutions to be applied by policy-
makers, stakeholders, and the cotton production sector in order to overcome the listed issues and
revive the cotton production in the country.
Objectives:
1. In order to comprehend the situation of cotton farming in Pakistan, its role in the textile
industry appareled as well.
2. Challenges of the cotton supply chain, among others, which affects climatic changes,
environmental factors as well as moisture type and the frost.
3. To investigate the effect that the government regulations on the cotton production have,
such as the countryside allocation reform and the WTO membership.
4. The need for further studies to be made in the cotton value chain is to be asserted, such as
research investments and dissemination of more sustainable planting systems.
5. In order to get a practical input to the government and fans to overcome the difficulties
and further improve the income of cotton in Pakistan.
Introduction:
Agricultural land is probably one of the most significant resources in the Pakistan because it has
a great impact on the nation’s population and their output. It was reported in the Economic
Survey of 2018 that agriculture sector contributed 20 % in the domestic productivity of the
country. however, of all the agricultural products, cotton can be deemed a very important
commodity. The supply chain of cotton is an essential component of the industrial sector
whereby it is the leading source of export revenue. This sector does not only act as a buffer to the
economy by contributing 10. Half of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and is a pillar of the
economy through the supply of raw materials to one of the biggest industries in Pakistan, which
is the textile industry
However, this sector is under a huge threat of climatic changes as well as the conversion of
productive agricultural land into commercial uses in the case of Pakistan. For example, in 2016,
production of cotton in the country dropped by as much as 33 percent translating to a loss of
about US $ 5. 7 million to the national exchequer. In view of this grim reality, the Sustainable
Development Policy Institute (SDPI) recently embarked on a systematic project titled “Research
on Climatic Change, Adaptation, their Impacts on Cotton Supply Chain, and Opportunities.”
PAKISTAN’s cotton crop, known as the ‘white gold,’ has been an integral part of its agricultural
industry for a long time now. The latter is of a persuasive nature and states that it is a significant
income and employment generation for many communities, providing great boosts to local
economies. Though it plays a historical backdrop, the cultivation of cotton has reduced by almost
ten percent in the past decade. This has significant effects on not only the national economy but
also those regions where the cultivation of this produce plays a significant role such as rural
areas famed for cotton production. Cotton crop downsizing is not only a question of a country’s
economy, but millions of people who rely on agricultural activities as their source of income.
Hence, there is the need to undertake an assessment of the major causes of reduction in cotton
production since this crop holds a lot of significance for Pakistan and its agriculture
predominantly the rural communities. This paper explores these factors, and the knowledge of
them will be useful in implementing adequate frames to work on the problems that confront the
industry. The purpose of this study is to critically analyses the consequent consequences of the
downtrend in the production of cotton and offer a possible way forward.
The textile sector is Pakistan's most prominent industrial section that provides 40% of industrial
labor force plus 10 million people are currently employed in it. This industry is the consumer of
40% of lending which removed to domestic manufacturing sector and makes up of 55% of the
exports of Pakistan. The textile sector produces multidimensional socio-economic consequences
including, the reduction of food security, poverty and employment generation. Punjab i.e. the
northern state for the spinning industry, used to give as much as 80% of the total cotton
production, and Sindh for the Northern state, used to give as much as 20%. Cotton is at the top of
the textile value chain, and it represents one of the key value chains that begins with cotton
production and continues all the way to exports.
Cotton production grapgh
Series 1 Series 2 Series 3
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Literature Review:
The literature on cotton manufacturing in Pakistan profoundly elaborates the inherent problems
and concealed prospects involved in the cotton value chain. They (forecasting tools) have the
power to detect the different advice (environmental factors) on cotton yield and quality related
factors (such as unpredictable rainfall patterns and heat waves) (Hussain et al., 2019). These
environmental stressors (e.g. moisture stress, salinity, and increasing temperatures), along with
outdated production methods and water scarcity, have portend a reduced production of cotton.
Smallholder farmers who do not have easy access to modern farm inputs are the ones who have
felt the impact the most (Khan and al., 2020). Besides, upkeep of the equipment and fertilizers
raise inputs costs that consequently increase the financial burden on cotton farmers, preventing
adaptation of improved farming techniques (Ahmed et al. , 2018). With that, however, issues of
seed quality and hybridization came to play as an important challenge, since poor quality seeds
diminish both crop production and resilience, resulting in reduced income and in sustainability
on the farm (Malik et al., 2017). In addition to this, the suboptimal government policies, such as
the phase-out of subsidies and new trade regulations, have been unable to adequately support
cotton industry, and hence, did not allow its upgrading (Shah et al., 2019).
Nonetheless, the literature shows several points of change through the partnership of eco-
conscious people, governmental and industrial leaders, and individual consumers. The
researchers hint the possible improvement of the strain and cultivation techniques of cotton
strains that could help in resistance to stresses and pest attacks hence yielding high produce and
sustainability (Hussain et al., 2019). In addition, encouraging sustainable farming like
conservation tillage and integrated pest management can control the adverse effects of
agriculture on production of cotton as well as modernizing agricultural infrastructure like
irrigation systems, houses for storage, machines for engineering can improve efficiency and
reduce post-harvest losses (Khan et al. ,2020; Ahmed et al. ,2018). Also, to achieve the farmers
financial accessibility through credit and financial services they could have investments in
modern inputs and technologies which will help them improve productivity and recommend
living. Also, promotion of value addition and market diversification is another measure that can
enhance competitiveness of the cotton farm altogether with consequent opening of new avenues
of income to farmers (Shah et al., 2019).
Methodology:
Mixed-methods is the basis of this research, which is used to unleash the primary pillars of the
decrease in cotton production in Pakistan and offers recommendations for its improvement. The
methodology includes both quantitative and qualitative approach as techniques which support
bringing the analysis up to the whole.
Quantitative Analysis: Statistical
Data Analysis: Applying historical records on cotton production factors, climate change and
policy alterations, statistical analysis will be conducted in order to find out trends and making of
correlation. The calculation of descriptive statistics like means, medians, and standard deviations
will enable the summing up of the data
Regression Analysis:
The application of regression analysis will enable us to quantify the contribution of individual
factors, for example climate change, government policies, and technology, to cotton production.
This method of multiple regression analysis will be used to highlight answerable predictors of
cotton yield and quality.
Surveys: The research will intend to survey farmers who are into cotton farming with the
purpose of capturing their approaches in farming, challenges they face daily and ideas on
government policies targeted at them. Obviously, survey’s outcomes will be qualified
statistically in order to discover underlying patterns and regularities.
Qualitative Analysis:
Interviews:
The stakeholders' experts will participate in the interviews - the officials of government,
agricultural experts, and industry representatives. Through these interviews we will delve into
the root problems posing challenges to cotton production and attempt to propose those solutions.
Focus Groups:
Discussions about cotton farming experience with farmers will be conducted as a way to enquire
their experiences, perspectives and suggestion for cotton cultivation improvement. These
conversations will stimulate a higher level of understanding of the annual difficulties for farmers
and their concerning for policy adjustments.
Document Analysis:
The government reports, academic publications, and industry magazines will be studied to
understand how cotton production in Pakistan has changed in the past, if there are any
modifications in government policies and if there is any emerging trend in the agricultural
technologies.
Sampling:
The qualitative part of the study will be conducted through purposive sampling method whereas
sampling farms across different regions of Pakistan whose cotton output falls between low to
medium and low to high will be selected using the stratified random sampling technique.
Stratification shall pursue based on geographical factors, e.g. provinces (Punjab, Sindh and so
forth), covering the movement of individuals from major cotton-cultivating areas. Through this
way the wide range of climates, techniques and difficulties given to the cotton farmers in the
country would be identified and this information will become available.
For the qualitative component of my study, purposive sampling will be used to identify key
informants who will be asked to take part in the interviews and focus group meet-ups. The
informants will be central players in the project and they will be represented by the government
officials, agricultural experts, industry players and cotton farmers of various backgrounds and
experiences. Through purposeful sampling the selection of persons that provides precious
knowledge regarding the research questions and objectives will be possible.
Factors contributing to the decline:
Production of cotton in Pakistan has been on the decline during recent years and the sector
remains the cornerstone of the country’s textile industry having a great historical significance.
This essay will consider the various causes for the problem of cotton decline, advanced
especially within the cotton value chain. Overcoming these hurdles is a core to making a revival
plan of cotton cultivation in Pakistan.
Climate changes and environmental factor:
Environmental and weather changes have a significant effect on cotton output of Pakistan.
Instability of rainfall, heat waves, and pest diseases negatively affect the yields and quality of
crops. On the other hand, environmental degradation and soil erosion may make the problems
faced the cotton farmers more difficult to deal with, thus affecting their productivity and
sustainability.
Low yield and reduced cultivation:
Contrary to having a major role in the vegetable industry, Pakistan is encountering low cotton
yields and reduced cultivation. The use of obsolete agricultural practices, acute water shortages
and the inability of small holders to obtain modern agricultural inputs, constitute this obstacle.
The turns of lands planted with cotton into commercial centers also reduce the areas under cotton
cultivation and this motion continues the problem.
High input cost:
Fertilizers, pesticides as well as machinery are quite costly resources which seem to be real
challenges for cotton farmers in Pakistan. Insufficiency of bank credit for growers worsens the
situation, which impedes investment into advanced farming practices and technologies, as well.
Seed Quality and Hybridization:
Pakistan has issues with generating hybrid cotton seeds of high quality which is a big problem
for the whole cotton industry. Inadequate seeds quality decreased both productivity and
resiliency, generally reduces the income and hence profitability of farmers.
Contamination and Fiber Quality:
Contamination of cotton by foreign matter due to the presence of dirt, debris, etc. degrades
quality and length of cotton fiber, subsequently causing breaking during ginning and spinning
steps. Cotton quality aspects such as Ginning Out Turn (GOT), micro-NAIR value, fiber length,
strength, moisture content, and trash percent are very vital measures in cotton quality and yarn.
Governmentt policies:
I. Subsidy Reductions: Reductions or eliminations of subsidies on inputs such as
fertilizers, pesticides, and machinery can increase production costs for cotton farmers,
making cultivation less financially viable.
II. Trade Policies: Governments, which pursue trade policies where they focus on other
agricultural products in lieu of cotton, lack support for cotton production through
establishment of higher tariffs for cotton rather for other crops and improving terms of
trade for the latter.
III. Water Management Policies: Inadequate water management policies, be them as
not efficient irrigation systems or misuse of water sources, can bring water scarcity to
cotton-growing regions in which yields become smaller and more cultivation is avoided.
IV. Credit Access: When the obscurity of agrarian credit interferes with the use of inputs
and machinery required for cotton planting, they consequently produce less crop, posing
a risk for their bottom line.
V. Research and Development (R&D) Investment: Inadequate supply of
government funding for agriculture R&D, especially in the process of development of
cotton cultivars with high yields and pest-control, is an obstacle to cotton productivity in
the sector.
VI. Infrastructure Development: Lack of infrastructure such as roads, storage
facilities, and processing plants can boost up pre-harvest losses and make the cotton value
addition chain less productive sending negative message to cotton farmers to refrain from
cotton production.
VII. Price Support Mechanisms: The failure of an effect price premier service, or price
stabilization policy, for cotton involves that farmers will have to carry the risk of price
variability and market risk, which in turn will create the disincentive to invest in cotton
cultivation.
VIII. Environmental Regulations: The rigorous environmental regulations or rules that
limit cotton pests’ management by banning agrochemicals that are essential for cotton
pests pressure increase, and affected yields, with the possible implication to cotton
production.
IX. Land Use Policies: Using up loses agricultural land including cotton farms for further
construction of residential areas and the industry can narrow acreage to be planted with
cotton crops and in the consequence reduce the production of cotton crops.
X. Policy Instability: Uncertainty in policy, such as frequent alterations in government
rules and regulations, as well as uniformity in taxation programs and subsidies makes the
situation worse for farmers in cotton planting and investors as well by creating a platform
of lack of investment in the field.
Opportunities for Improvement:
Investment in Research and Development (R&D):
Enhanced R&D funding causes the creation of new technologies, which eventually becomes
adopted throughout the sector. Through research projects aimed at producing maximum yield
cotton varieties proving to be resilient to stresses caused by climatic factors and pests, a
significant increase in crop productivity can be attained.
Promotion of Sustainable Farming Practices:
Supporting farmers' initiatives to implement sustainable farming methods by promoting
measures like conservation tillage, crop rotation, and integrated pest management, soils do well,
water is not wasted and yields increase. Coordinating information sharing between governments
and extension services will help in the creation of these practices.
Modernization of Agricultural Infrastructure:
Establishment of new irrigation systems, larger storage facilities, more mechanized equipment
should help to cut waste on waste up to the store. Under public-private cooperation, the
agricultural infrastructure can greatly benefit from the cooperation.
Capacity Building and Training:
Running integrated training for farmers on new farming methods, crop management techniques,
and agri-business skills will help them be masters in the production and sale of their products
adequately. Development of collaborative efforts among government agencies, NGOs, and
industrial sector for the buildup programs will lead to the building of capacity.
Access to Credit and Financial Services:
What is crucial is making available saving credits and finance services for small-holder farmers
so that they can use it to purchase needed goods, equipment, and maybe also update their
technology. Governments could jointly support people-based schemes and microfinance
initiatives designed specifically for the cotton farmers which would induce financial involvement
as well as assist agricultural growth.
Value Addition and Market Diversification:
Promotion of value additions and diversification in cotton sector like cottonseed oil extraction or
special products production will not just create new income but will also add better
competitiveness. Market ties and export direction ultimately translate to opening up local and
foreign markets.
Conclusion:
This research lays emphasis on various internal and external forces affecting the cotton
production in Pakistan, whether it is climatic shifts or policies failure. As depicted, cotton is one
the important crops in Pakistan’s agricultural and industrial sectors the revenue earned through
which plays an important role for the enhancement of economy and millions of people are also
earning their living through this crop. This sector has however been threatened by declining
yields in the last decade as a result of unfavourable weather conditions, and land conversion as
well as poor farming methods for production. This fact admits that the climate change challenges
and its impact on the natural fibers supply chain are important and can be confronted through the
Sustainable Development Policy Institute’s project on climate adaptation.
It is also relevant to note that this study points to the direction of implementing a quite intensive
package of measures that would help advance the technologies used in agriculture, bring better
seeds to the market, and increase financial and political support to farmers. Pakistan can reduce
the climate change impact and the stunted progress of cotton farming with sustainable farming
practices, inexpensive and effective water management systems, and diverse marketing.
Measures such as these must be realized across the board with the cooperation of government
agencies, industry members, and farmers alike.
Hence, it would appear quite plausible that, in strengthening and sustaining the growth of the
cotton industry of Pakistan, Pakistan’s stability would be supported and millions of people’s
income would not be jeopardized. In this paper, depending on whether it is better to focus on
single concerns or more general considerations when it comes to addressing productivity hurdles
in the cotton supply chain, the author presents his policy recommendations which should indeed
help the policymakers who are interested in finding out what it takes to tackle the mentioned
concerns in the future. From the identification and analysis of the decline factors and its
possibilities to increase, it is easier to conclude that indeed Pakistan can bounce back and could
be among the world’s super powers in the exportation of cotton.
