TAMID Stock Pitch
TAMID Stock Pitch
(Nasdaq: ATVI)
Recommendation - Buy
$85 $40
$80
$35
$75
$30
ATVI Share Price
$70
$25
$65
$60 $20
$55
$15
$50
$10
$45
$5
$40
$35 $0
3/28/2017 6/28/2017
6/28/2017 9/28/2017
9/28/2017 12/28/2017
12/28/2017 3/28/2018
3/28/2017 6/28/2018
Axis Title
* Includes dividends of $0.40 per share; Source: Yahoo Finance, price data
Business Overview
Timeline of Historical Performance
ATVI’s acquisition of the world’s largest mobile game developer further diversified its product portfolio, attributing $1.3bn in revenue
$40 $4,200
$3,600
$30 $3,000
$2,400
$20
$1,800
$1,200
$10
$600
$0 $0
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2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Business Overview Industry Overview Financial Overview Valuation Overview Risks Overview
Business Overview: Console Gaming
2017 Revenue Breakdown Quarterly Revenue ($mm) and % of Total Revenue
$2.5 100%
$2.0 80%
$1.5 60%
$1.0 40%
$0.5 20%
$0.0 0%
Q1-20132013 Q1-20142014 Q1-20152015 Q1-20162016 Q1-20172017
$0.6 80%
60%
$0.4
40%
$0.2 20%
$0.0 0%
Q1-20132013 Q1-20142014 Q1-20152015 Q1-20162016 Q1-20172017
Business Overview Industry Overview Financial Overview Valuation Overview Risks Overview
Business Overview: PC Gaming
2017 Revenue Breakdown Quarterly Revenue ($mm) and % of Total Revenue
$2.5 100%
$2.0 80%
$1.5 60%
$1.0 40%
$0.5 20%
$0.0 0%
Q1-20132013 Q1-20142014 Q1-20152015 Q1-20162016 Q1-20172017
$0.6 80%
60%
$0.4
40%
$0.2 20%
$0.0 0%
Q1-20132013 Q1-20142014 Q1-20152015 Q1-20162016 Q1-20172017
of 2017 Revenue Q1-16 Q2-16 Q3-16 Q4-16 Q1-17 Q2-17 Q3-17 Q4-17
Business Overview Industry Overview Financial Overview Valuation Overview Risks Overview
Business Overview: Mobile Gaming
2017 Revenue Breakdown Quarterly Revenue ($mm) and % of Total Revenue
$2.5 100%
$2.0 80%
$1.5 60%
$1.0 40%
$0.5 20%
$0.0 0%
Q1-20132013 Q1-20142014 Q1-20152015 Q1-20162016 Q1-20172017
$0.6 80%
60%
$0.4
40%
$0.2 20%
$0.0 0%
Q1-20132013 Q1-20142014 Q1-20152015 Q1-20162016 Q1-20172017
of 2017 Revenue Q1-16 Q2-16 Q3-16 Q4-16 Q1-17 Q2-17 Q3-17 Q4-17
Business Overview Industry Overview Financial Overview Valuation Overview Risks Overview
Business Overview: eSports
2017 Revenue Breakdown Quarterly Revenue ($mm)
$2.5 100%
$2.0 80%
$1.5 60%
$1.0 40%
$0.5 20%
$0.0 0%
Q1-20132013 Q1-20142014 Q1-20152015 Q1-20162016 Q1-20172017
$0.6 80%
60%
$0.4
40%
$0.2 20%
$0.0 0%
Q1-20132013 Q1-20142014 Q1-20152015 Q1-20162016 Q1-20172017
of 2017 Revenue 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018P 2019P 2020P 2021P
Business Overview Industry Overview Financial Overview Valuation Overview Risks Overview
* Implicit EBITDA margin, likely a result of startup costs
Industry Overview
Industry Overview
Porter’s Five Forces Analysis Video Game Publishing Industry ($ bn) Market Share
$15 8.5%
14%
$10
$5
Bargaining Power Threat of New 7.8%
of Suppliers Entrants $0
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Business Overview Industry Overview Financial Overview Valuation Overview Risks Overview
ATVI Segment Industries
Console Gaming PC Gaming Mobile Gaming eSports & Alternative Gaming
Console Gaming Industry ($ bn) PC Gaming Industry ($ bn) Mobile Gaming Industry ($ bn) eSports Industry ($ bn)
$45 $45 $100 $2.0
$40 $40 $90 $1.8
$35 $35 $80 $1.6
$30 $30 $70 $1.4
$60 $1.2
$25 $25
$50 $1.0
$20 $38 $39 $20 $92 $1.8
$36 $37 $35 $36 $40 $82 $0.8 $1.7
$32 $34 $34 $33 $34 $34 $73 $1.5
$15 $15 $31 $31 $66
$30 $58 $0.6 $1.2
$10 $10 $51 $0.9
$20 $41 $0.4
$0.7
$5 $5 $10 $0.2 $0.5
$0 $0 $0 $0.0
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Business Overview Industry Overview Financial Overview Valuation Overview Risks Overview
Favorable Market Dynamics
Smartphones (bn) and Internet Traffic Volume (exa/mth) U.S. Per Capita Disposable Income ($ 000’s)
eSports Audience (mm) and Revenue ($ mm) International Opportunity – Asian Games Market ($ bn)
Business Overview Industry Overview Financial Overview Valuation Overview Risks Overview
Competitive Landscape and MAUs
Electronic Arts Inc. develops,
Take-Two Interactive Software, Inc.
markets, publishes, and distributes
develops, publishes, and markets
games, content, and services for
interactive entertainment solutions
game consoles, PC , mobile phones,
for consumers worldwide. Take-Two
and tablets worldwide. EA is
is headquartered in New York, NY.
headquartered in Redwood City, CA.
Business Overview Industry Overview Financial Overview Valuation Overview Risks Overview
Financial Overview
Financial Analysis Overview
Strong and Consistent Revenues ($ bn) Margin Expansion via Digital Distribution ($ bn)
$18 Console Games $18 Revenue via Digital Distribution 50%
$16 PC Games $16 Revenue via Retail Distribution 45%
Mobile Games Revenue via Other Distribution
$14 $14 40%
eSports and Alternative Games Operating Margin
35%
$12 $12
30%
$10 $10
25%
$8 $8
20%
$6 $6
15%
$4 $4 10%
$2 $2 5%
$0 $0 0%
2016 2017 2018P 2019P 2020P 2021P 2022P 2023P 2015 2016 2017 2018P 2019P 2020P 2021P 2022P 2023P
Business Overview Industry Overview Financial Overview Valuation Overview Risks Overview
Revenue Growth
The video game and video game publishing industries are projected to experience solid growth throughout the
High-Level Industry Dynamic projection period of our analysis. Historically, ATVI has outperformed industry growth, and we expect this to
continue in the coming years as the Company maintains its position as a global video game leader.
U.S. Video Game1 and U.S. Video Game Publishing Industries ($ bn)
Expanding
Geographic Footprint $160 U.S. Video Game Industry (CAGR: 5.6%)
U.S. Video Game Publishing Industry (CAGR: 6.1%)
$140
$20
$24 $26 $27 $29 $30 $32
$22 $23
Robust Revenue Growth $0
2016 2017 2018P 2019P 2020P 2021P 2022P 2023P
Business Overview Industry Overview Financial Overview Valuation Overview Risks Overview
1 IBIS World report ignores mobile gaming within the U.S. Video Game market, ignoring one of the highest growing segments
Revenue Growth
ATVI has already begun tapping into the Asia Pacific marketplace through its acquisition of King and establishment
High-Level Industry Dynamic of Overwatch League, increasing revenue in the region at a CAGR of 42.8% since 2015. Asia is expected to contribute
more than any other region towards the global gaming industry’s projected growth through 2023.
Business Overview Industry Overview Financial Overview Valuation Overview Risks Overview
Revenue Growth
Below are our projections for ATVI’s well-established revenue streams, including sales from console, PC, and mobile
High-Level Industry Dynamic game products. The global markets for console, PC, and mobile gaming are expected to grow at CAGRs of 1.9%,
3.1%, and 10.0% through 2023. As ATVI is a global leader, we expect it to realize above-average growth.
$10 $4.3
Rapid eSports and $3.5
$8 $3.2
Alternative Product Growth
$2.9
$6 $2.4 $2.7 $3.5
$1.7 $2.1 $3.2
$2.8
$4 $2.2 $2.3
$2.1 $2.0 $2.1
$2 $3.4 $3.8 $4.2
$2.5 $2.4 $2.6 $2.7 $2.9
Robust Revenue Growth $0
2016 2017 2018P 2019P 2020P 2021P 2022P 2023P
Business Overview Industry Overview Financial Overview Valuation Overview Risks Overview
Revenue Growth
ATVI expects to enter the alternative product (AR/VR) marketplace within the next several years, and has already
High-Level Industry Dynamic established itself as one of the eSports industry’s first participants. As such, we see growth in these segments to
have more meaningful effects in the projection period’s later years.
100%
Rapid eSports and
80%
Alternative Product Growth
129%
60%
100%
40% 83%
70% 64% 68% 72%
58% 56%
48% 50% 44%
20% 41% 42% 35%
26% 33% 25% 29% 27% 27%
Robust Revenue Growth 0%
2017 2018P 2019P 2020P 2021P 2022P 2023P
Business Overview Industry Overview Financial Overview Valuation Overview Risks Overview
Revenue Growth
Total Revenue by Platform ($ bn)
High-Level Industry Dynamic $18 Console Game Revenue (CAGR: 8.1%)
PC Game Revenue (CAGR: 7.7%)
$16 Mobile Game Revenue (CAGR: 9.5%)
Expanding eSports and Alternative Game Revenues (CAGR: 48.3%)
$12 $3.3
$2 $3.8 $4.2
$2.9 $3.4
$2.5 $2.4 $2.6 $2.7
Robust Revenue Growth $0
2016 2017 2018P 2019P 2020P 2021P 2022P 2023P
Business Overview Industry Overview Financial Overview Valuation Overview Risks Overview
Operating Income and EBITDA Growth
2015 2016 2017 2018P 2019P 2020P 2021P 2022P 2023P
EBIT $1,320 $1,420 $1,310 $2,220 $2,755 $3,225 $3,897 $4,618 $5,229
EBIT Margin 28.3% 21.4% 18.7% 27.6% 29.8% 30.5% 32.2% 33.5% 33.4%
EBITDA $1,966 $2,370 $2,378 $3,410 $4,132 $4,782 $5,678 $6,649 $7,532
EBITDA Margin 42.1% 35.9% 33.9% 42.3% 44.7% 45.2% 46.9% 48.1% 48.1%
$8,000 EBITDA
60%
EBIT
$7,000
EBITDA Margin 50%
EBIT & EBITDA ($ mm)
$6,000
40%
$5,000
$4,000 30%
$3,000
20%
$2,000
10%
$1,000
$0 0%
2015 2016 2017 2018P 2019P 2020P 2021P 2022P 2023P
Business Overview Industry Overview Financial Overview Valuation Overview Risks Overview
Digital Distribution Expansion
Company Digital Distribution1 2015-2017 CAGR Company Digital Distribution1 2015-2017 CAGR
$12
$10
$8
$14.2
$6 $12.5
$10.8
$9.3
$4 $7.9
$6.5
$4.9 $5.5
$2
$0
2016 2017 2018P 2019P 2020P 2021P 2022P 2023P
Business Overview Industry Overview Financial Overview Valuation Overview Risks Overview
1 Refers to 2017 percent of revenue that is earned through digital distribution
EPS Growth
Company TTM EPS1 2022 PEG Company TTM EPS1 2019 PEG
ATVI EPS growth is fueled by digital
$1.39 1.71x $1.32 0.92x
distribution, eSports/alternative revenue,
and favorable macroeconomic factors $3.19 1.87x $1.63 1.08x
$6.0
$5.37
$5.0 $4.74
$4.00
$4.0
$3.31
$3.0 $2.83
$2.28
$2.0
$1.0
$0.0
2018P 2019P 2020P 2021P 2022P 2023P
Business Overview Industry Overview Financial Overview Valuation Overview Risks Overview
1 TTM EPS adjusted for non-recurring tax-related expenses; Source: Yahoo Finance, EPS & PEG Ratio;
Valuation Overview
Valuation Overview
29.3x 29.2x
EV/EBITDA EV/EBITDA
$83.74 $83.37
per share Implied Share Price per share
$83.65
75% weighting 25% weighting
Business Overview Industry Overview Financial Overview Valuation Overview Risks Overview
Discounted Cash Flow Analysis
Beta
2.87%
1.250
29.3x EV/EBITDA 12%
10%
8%
6%
Median Unlevered Beta (Comps) .927 Implied Share Price: $83.74 4%
Debt-to-Equity Ratio .44 2%
0%
Cost of Equity (CAPM) 11.81% 2017P 2018P 2019P 2020P 2021P 2022P
Business Overview Industry Overview Financial Overview Valuation Overview Risks Overview
Comparable Companies Analysis
Business Overview Industry Overview Financial Overview Valuation Overview Risks Overview
Risks Overview
Risks Overview
Probability
Internal Risks External Risks
1 4
Highly Concentrated Threat of
Product Portfolio Emerging Technologies
2 4 5
Failure to Maintain Decentralized Distribution
Significant Market Share 5 and Gaming Networks
2 1
3 6
Failure to Effectively 3 6 Gaming Market and eSports
Integrate Acquisition of King Growth Failure
Impact
Business Overview Industry Overview Financial Overview Valuation Overview Risks Overview
Key Risk Highlights
Concentrated Product Portfolio Threat of Emerging Technologies Decentralized Distribution & Gaming Gaming & eSports Growth Failure
• The augmented and virtual (AR/VR) reality • A advantage of decentralized gaming • The global eSports market is forecasted to
gaming markets are forecasted to grow platforms is secure data sharing. grow considerably through the coming five
significantly, reaching an aggregate industry Blockchain technology can enhance years, generating an expected global
revenue of $215 billion by 2021 data sharing and make gaming revenue of $1.6 billion by 2020
• The growth of new, less expensive hardware platforms more secure and efficient • In 2017, the number of frequent eSports
will put virtual and augmented reality viewers and enthusiasts amounted to 143
technology within the grasp of a growing Cryptocurrency Initial Coin Offerings million. This number is projected to reach
number of companies and individuals 250 million in 2021
• Mobile devices are anticipated to emerge as • Decentralized platforms can allow • Due to increased investment and focus in the
the fastest growing platform for the content creators to launch tokens for global eSports market, ATVI has
adoption of AR/VR content within the digital game licenses and in-game digital progressively grown its exposure to
gaming industry assets fluctuations within the eSports market
Business Overview Industry Overview Financial Overview Valuation Overview Risks Overview
Conclusion – Buy Recommendation
Favorable
x
12-month price target Superior Market
Positioning
Growth-Oriented
Business Model
$65.97
3/28/18 per share