Journal of Maritime Research: The China-Taiwan Dispute: A Continuity of Conflict and Resolutions
Journal of Maritime Research: The China-Taiwan Dispute: A Continuity of Conflict and Resolutions
Article history: The geopolitical position of Taiwan at the crossroads of East and West has led to political imbalance.
Received 21 Aug 2023; The strong U.S. influence has portrayed Taiwan as a consequence of China’s unification efforts. Recent
in revised from 24 Aug 2023; Chinese military exercises in the region have raised concerns of conflict, affecting the stability. Escala-
accepted 02 Dec 2023. tion of military presence around the Taiwan Strait has been observed over time. Taiwan’s administrative
status under the People’s Republic of China has gradually weakened its self-governance. China asserts
Keywords:
Taiwan’s adherence to the 1992 Consensus, while historical claims and technological importance shape
Conflict, History, Geopolitics, USA,
its foreign policy. The historical context involves China’s takeover of Taiwan in 1945 after WWII, trig-
Taiwan.
gering civil conflict. Struggles over the Taiwan Straits emerged in 1953 between the People’s Republic
of China and the Republic of China, resulting in armed conflicts for control over strategic islands.
© SEECMAR | All rights reserved
1 Universiti
Reaffirming how China used to trail the pathway of ‘Holy
Utara Malaysia.
∗ Corresponding Duty’ in claiming Taiwan territory are undeniably important in
author: Muhammad Iqhwan Madzli. E-mail Address: iqh-
wanmadzli@yahoo.co.uk.
2 Lindsay Maizland. “Why China-Taiwan Relations Are So Tense”, Council 3 Fernandes Jacob. ”US AND TAIWAN.” Harvard Model Congress Europe
on Foreign Relations. (2023). Accessed May 18, 2023. 2023. (2023). Accessed May 18, 2023.
Muhammad Iqhwan Madzli. / Journal of Maritime Research Vol XXI. No. I (2024) 134–139 135
China’s foreign policy. Indebting the last-pieces of domino quo whereby its aircraft and vessels fly without restriction and
effect, presume Taiwan listed as treasury to China’s techno- occasionally in the air and maritime space around Taiwan7 .
logical enhancement and development. Chinas seized the is- The current overarching dilemma, Xi Jinping command in
land in 1945 after the defeat of Japanese forces in World War capturing Taiwan to embrace motivating factors towards high-
Two sooner vented to Civil War within nationalist state move- end microchip and semiconductor industry as de-facto ascen-
ment headed by Chiang Kai-Shek, Kuomintang against Mao dency. Taiwan leading and manufacturing the most of microchips
Zedong, the Chinese Communist Party4 . The indicators of Tai- in the worlds – steering electronic production convening indus-
wan Straits predicaments began in 1953 between two parties, trial leap. China is hesitant about risking a confrontation that
the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and the Republic of China might take away its economy of the greatest fundamental eco-
(ROC) occasioned in armed war ruling strategic islands across nomic treasure of the twenty-first century8 .
the Straits.
The contrasting ideologies in shaping China’s governance
– politically inspired via establishing identities in nationalistic 3. Theoretical Framework.
chronologies. The CCP fuse its power over the mainland and
launched the attack towards the Straits thoroughly in the early The management and resolution of Taiwan dispute requires
1950s. Despite the fact that the mainland of China hoped Tai- a sophisticated view in cater the national interests and its right
wan was part of its own nation, the United States accounted to external sovereignty for China, thus the United States re-
for Taiwan as the only government with legitimacy of China. emphasize the importance of Taipei administration that treats
Nevertheless, President Richard Nixon’s 1972 historic mission impetus of foreign policy denominator. A clash of identities
to Beijing ensued in deeper ties with (mainland) China, an or- mounting the consciousness between China and Taiwan respec-
dinance that President Jimmy Carter carried out, declaring re- tively delicate the tensions on synthesizing national manifesta-
lations with (mainland) China with support of the ”One China tion.
Policy.”5 With that, the policy acknowledge PRC as the main In particular, Taipei-Beijing relations avow the perspective
government and later on the U.S. permitted the affairs with Tai- of neoclassical realism theory. The rivalry of US-China de-
wan, namely the Taiwan Relations Act of 1979. As stated from picting on the basis of internal features effect on their exter-
Stephen Yates (1999) by preventing core enmity, the US safe- nal behaviour, and analysing Taiwan issue as the focal point of
guarded Taiwan from forcing itself into debates with China amid main actor’s policy argumentation and interpretation. Notable
the potential of military invasion nor different kinds of intimi- to point out that foreign policy analysis deeply accounted to
dation6 . Beijing further claims on sovereignty over territory neoclassical realism concept. Neoclassical realism is a compar-
initiate to amalgamate with the mainland on any possible force atively intriguing approach to integrate structural realism’s fo-
included military exertion. The biggest flashpoint coming from cus on rigorous science and the explanatory dominance of the
the crisis impacted the long-standing role of the U.S. as well global system with classical realists’ devotion to the national
as multilateral economic west bloc. De-facto sovereignty hard- structures, vision difficulties, including governance dilemmas9 .
ening the limit of self-ruling government as non-recognized in- This perspective bound to revitalize China’s strength of the One
dependent country – a rising number of states have transferred China principal carriages a significant influence to the main-
diplomatic status from Taipei to Beijing throughout time, re- land policy. Realist doctrine uprise the power of politics and
ducing Taiwan alongside barely 15 allies in diplomatic relations view nation-state actor applies its dominant functions compete
by the end of 2021. to the United States present a struggle amidst the bipolar con-
The political and security confrontation of China-Taiwan trol. The dynamic of China’s national policy system encour-
adversely lead to confrontation of China-U. S affairs proxy. aged China’s foreign policy decisions. To maintain its immense
China’s view of Taiwan nowadays remains firmly as ever, when position, China starts to declare itself by determining its juris-
Xi Jinping itemized “reunification with Taiwan must be ful- diction throughout a rising amount regions in its national inter-
filled”, in addition to expansion of industrial revolution on mi- est, including not solely areas of conventional vitality includ-
crochip technologies – renowned the pioneering supplies of semi- ing Taiwan, Xinjiang, and Tibet along with certain contested
conductor components. Caught the U.S. favouritism encircling regions like the South China Sea10 . Within the framework of
security measurements across its military bases, especially in
the island territories. Beijing leveraged Pelosi’s arrival to esca- 7 The Task Force on U.S.-China Policy. “Avoiding War Over Taiwan”. Pol-
late provocative military activity in apparent coordinated drills, icy Asia Society Center on U.S.-China Relations, School of Global Policy and
in addition to assign how examines to be an intriguing status Strategy, UC San Diego. (12 October 2022). Accessed May 18, 2023.
8 Ian Bremmer. “Why China Won’t Invade Taiwan Anytime Soon”. Ideas,
neoclassical realism, autonomous and mediating elements de- offspring currently constitute arguably the most populated eth-
termine the foreign policy. Xi Jinping dealings with diplomatic nic communities on the territory. However, the Qing Dynasty
relations reserve a principle of ‘desires to achieve’ strives to had to surrender Taiwan to Japan, after the defeat in the First
accommodate: ( – fenfayouwei). Sino-Japanese War, 1895. A several decades later, Japan capit-
Therefore, assertive behaviour enclaves the pursuit power ulated Taiwan to the ROC during the World War II – within the
of China in legitimatize the state government stance. Tools consent of ruling given from the United States and United King-
for China anticipate the hegemony attain its hard power often dom. Chiang-Kai overdrawn the civil war in China which are
running the state of political-security and economic outflow. defeated and the leftovers, yet supporters escaped to Taiwan in
Neorealist recognises that governments are human-led organ- 1949. Meanwhile, the CCP established the PRC on mainland,
isations, and hence responding to external triggers might ap- as CCP never abandoned the use of force to bring Taiwan be-
pear improper11 . This emerge when a state’s government fails neath its domination. The scenario of this issue is the power
to recognise the predicament it is in. A state could opt for a of struggle and unclear status of independence that withdrawn
futile response to external pressures due to national economic its recognition and the UN transferred diplomatic recognition
or political restrictions that hinder the state machinery from ob- from Beijing government was dispel. Subsequently, 15 mem-
taining sufficient resources from its citizenry in order to com- ber states recognised Taipei administration tumbled consider-
pete effectively. ably due to distinction political system and legal status remains
unclear. Both parties argued on being part of a single China
Figure 1: Intervening variables. and professed as its only authorised representation12 . As com-
ponent of its democratic shift, publicly renounced its mission to
reconquer China’s mainland in 1991.
Taiwan crisis?”. Business Analysis, The Japan Times. (2022). Accessed May
11 Sean Carver. “Sino-US Great Power Conflict from a Realist Per- 25, 2023.
spective”. Global Honors Theses. 84. (2021). Accessed May 22, 2023. 15 Ben Blanchard. “China-Taiwan: why tensions are rising and what could
https://digitalcommons.tacoma.uw.edu/gh theses/84 happen in 2023”. Asia Pacific, Reuters. (2022). Accessed May 25, 2023.
Muhammad Iqhwan Madzli. / Journal of Maritime Research Vol XXI. No. I (2024) 134–139 137
Beijing taking benefit of the thrilling compression on Taiwan Figure 2: Mapping the People?s Liberation Army (PLA) Un-
likely to exert military forces comes both an offensive and de- precedented Seven Exercise Zones around Taiwan.
fensive validation. According to the Council on Foreign Rela-
tions (CFR) identified three possible military tactics that Bei-
jing use Taiwan under its command: air and sea confinement
across Taiwan, restricted attack offshore islands, and full-scale
invasion including large number of Chinese troops on Taiwan16 .
cessed May 25, 2023. Cross-Straits Relations”. Institute for Security & Development Policy. (2023).
17 Model Diplomacy. “Strategic Ambiguity Toward Taiwan”. Council on Accessed May 28, 2023.
Foreign Relations. (2022). Accessed May 26, 2023. 21 Kathrin Hille & Demetri Sevastopulo. “China is ratcheting up pressure on
18 Nikkei Asia. “U.S maintains ‘strategic ambiguity’ over Taiwan: security Taiwan. What will the US do next?”. Financial Times. (2022). Accessed May
adviser. Indo-Pacific. (2022). Accessed May 26, 2023. 28, 2023.
19 Peter Devine. “Strategic Ambiguity Isn’t Working to Deter China on Tai- 22 Kyle Amonson & Dane Egli. “The Ambitious Dragon: Beijing’s Calculus
wan – It Will Invade Anyway. It’s Time to Commit”. Just Security. (2022). for Invading Taiwan by 2030,” Journal of Indo-Pacific Affairs 6, no. 3 (March–
Accessed May 27, 2023. April 2023): 37–53. Accessed May 28, 2023.
Muhammad Iqhwan Madzli. / Journal of Maritime Research Vol XXI. No. I (2024) 134–139 138
Figure 3: China and Taiwan Armed Forces Comparison. established ARATS as a counterpart corresponding to facilitate
cooperation and dialogue Taiwan-China. Series of discussions
held under the purposes of agreements. Then, both de-facto
parties unable to reach a concluding agreement on the status of
Taiwan autonomy.
cost of peril. In the sense, understanding the process of a con- deemed much passable in reducing conflict through the lens of
flict sustaining policies and practice. In all-out war, the Strait cooperation and empathizing plausible structures of its struc-
paradoxes reasoned why the US constraint lack of support and tures and systems. Beijing pursues in conquest military bases
defence to Taiwan whenever the west must prudently ponder its across Taiwan borders, which strongly claims on the historical
strategy in the incident of Chinese military pressure. Figure 4 statement. This motivates Taiwan upscaling the needs of the US
shown the onion tool, encompass three concentric circles, con- using geographic and technological advantages to raise the cost
tingent on involving actors’ positions, interests, and needs as in of China. By deterrence, full-scale invasion could circumvent
the China-Taiwan conflict. Considering each dispute contains however with inconsistent sustainability. Potential for China
a minimum of two actors, the onion actor analysis necessitates responding the conflict are more likely due to rapid military
rightful negotiation26 . changes in strategizing growth. Thus, the conflict transforma-
tion by dynamics is particular to China as well as Taiwan since
Figure 4: Onion Actor Analysis ? actor?s position, interests and the onion analysis predict to comprehend both sides whether to
needs in the case study of China-Taiwan Conflict. raise or diplomatically in stringent manner, sharply residing to
address the needs and interests for both actors.