BAZAAR

BULLETIN
September 2024

Digitally signed by JIGAR SHANTILAL PATEL

JIGAR SHANTILAL PATEL Date: 2024.09.03 08:43:29 +05'30'
 INDEX
• Market Outlook......................................01
• Sectoral Representation........................02
• Sectoral Snippets..................................03
• PCR vs NIFTY........................................05
• Economic Calendar and
Corporate Action...................................06
• 2 Technical Picks..................................07
• Performance Evaluator.........................09
• Derivative Strategies............................ 10
Market Outlook
Market Overview - August 2024 Levels to Watch
August 2024 was a tumultuous month for both Resistance Zone: We recommend traders
domestic and international markets. In the domestic consider lightening up their long positions in the
sphere, the Benchmark Index experienced a 25,300 – 25,500 range. Even if the index rallies
dramatic drop of over 1,000 points in the first half of beyond this zone, adopting a cautious approach
the month, briefly dipping below the 24,000 mark. would be prudent.
This decline was consistent with our technical Support Level: Immediate support is at 24,900. A
projections, but the primary drivers were concerns breach of this level could trigger significant profit
about a potential recession in the U.S. triggered by booking and further downside.
weak jobs data, the unwinding of the Yen Carry
Trade, and escalating geopolitical tensions, which Nifty Bank Index
dampened global market sentiment. Once again, the Nifty Bank Index underperformed
Despite this initial downturn, the market saw a compared to the benchmark indices. Initially falling
robust recovery towards the end of the month. The below the 50,000 mark, it is now struggling around
Benchmark Index rebounded to reach the 25,000 the 51,500 level. The daily chart shows
milestone and even achieved a new high of 25,268, narrow-range bodies with the RSI below 60,
driven by bullish market sentiment. indicating indecision at current levels. The index
may regain momentum if it sustains above the
Technical Analysis 52,000 mark. Conversely, a breach of the 51,000
From a technical perspective, the trend appears level on a closing basis could lead to further
strong based on recent price behaviour. However, weakness in the banking sector.
our previous discussions highlighted a potential dip
due to a two-point negative divergence in the RSI on Summary
the daily scale for the Nifty 50. Although the index Overall, while the Benchmark Index shows
has reached new highs, we are now observing a strength, technical indicators and high FII long
three-point negative divergence in the daily RSI, positions suggest caution. The Nifty Bank Index is
coupled with a two-point negative divergence on the currently underperforming and shows signs of
weekly scale. While divergence alone is not a indecision. Traders should monitor key support
definitive signal of a market top, the fact that the FII and resistance levels closely and adjust their
long-to-short ratio in index futures has hit a ceiling of strategies accordingly.
70% suggests that profit booking might be
imminent.

01
 Sectoral Representation

NIFTY CHARACTERISTICS

Methodology Free float market capitalization Index Returns % QTD YTD 1 Year 5Years Since inception

No. of constituents 50 Price Return 5.1 16.13 31.07 18.02 11.84

Launch Date 22-Apr-96 Total Return 5.41 17.31 32.64 19.39 -

Base Date 03-Nov-95 Statistics 1 Year 5 years Since inception

Base Value 1000 Std. Deviation 13.2 19.18 22.92

Calculation Frequency Real-Time Daily Beta (Nifty 50) 1 1 1

Index Re balancing Semi-Annually Correlation (Nifty 50 1 1 1

Source: NSEIndia | Dated: 30th August 2024

02
Sectoral Snippets
NIFTY BANK
Weightage MoM Return
STOCK
(%) (%)
HDFCBANK 28.06 1.31
ICICIBANK 24.44 2.05
KOTAKBANK 10.21 -1.50

SBIN 9.89 -6.51

AXISBANK 9.44 0.78

INDUSINDBK 5.47 -0.18

BANKBARODA 2.70 -1.40

FEDERALBNK 2.68 -2.75

AUBANK 2.22 6.60

PNB 2.01 -5.95

*MoM returns till 30th August 2024 *Source: NSE

In August, BANKNIFTY underperformed the benchmark NIFTY50 index,

exhibiting a volatile negative trajectory. Throughout the month, it consistently
maintained support around the 49500 level, ultimately closing near 51,350,
marking an Month-over-Month (MoM) loss of -0.39%. Currently, BANKNIFTY is
encountering resistance in the 51500-52000 range, which aligns with the upper
Bollinger band on the monthly scale. A retracement to the 50,800 level is seen as
a favourable entry point for long positions, suggesting a bullish market outlook.
The immediate trading range is projected to fluctuate between 50500 and 52,500,
reflecting short-term market dynamics, while a broader range is anticipated TREND
between 50,000 and 53,000.

NIFTY IT
Weightage MoM Return
STOCK
(%) (%)

INFY 28.45 4.04

TCS 24.57 3.84

HCLTECH 9.88 6.74

TECHM 9.35 5.28
WIPRO 7.81 3.14
LTIMINDTREE 5.81 8.80

PERSISTENT 5.56 7.01

COFORGE 4.30 0.92

MPHAISIS 2.65 7.34

LTTS 1.61 9.59

*MoM returns till 30 August, 2024 *Source: NSE

th

Rally continues even in August, the index IT traded positively, settling around the
44800 mark and registering a staggering gain of 4.74%. In terms of immediate
trading prospects, the anticipated range is expected to oscillate between 41500
and 44000, reflecting short-term market dynamics. Additionally, a broader range
spanning from 41,000 to 44,500 levels is projected, offering a more
comprehensive context for potential price movements. Investors and traders need
to vigilantly monitor these levels to capitalize on favourable trading opportunities
and adeptly navigate market fluctuations.

TREND

03
 NIFTY AUTO
Weightage MoM Return
STOCK
(%) (%)

M&M 21.92 -3.52

TATAMOTORS 18.78 -3.92

MARUTI 13.19 -4.54

BAJAJ - AUTO 9.80 12.70

HEROMOTO 5.71 0.13

EICHERMOT 5.47 1.06

TVSMOTOR 5.27 11.15

MOTHERSON 4.26 -3.54

BHARATFORG 3.27 -8.54

ASHOKLEY 2.97 -0.25

*MoM returns till 30th August, 2024 *Source: NSE

In August, NIFTY AUTO failed to close above its previous month high & ended in
negative territory near 26150 mark with loss of -1.92% on month on month basis. This
negative momentum reflects the investor are booking profits at higher levels during the
period. Looking at technical indicators, the Monthly Scale RSI is currently positioned
in the overbought zone, signalling strong bullish momentum that may persist in the
coming weeks. This indication suggests that despite the recent loss, there may still be
room for further upside potential in auto stocks. Consequently, any potential
retracement towards the 25000 level could present a favourable opportunity for
investors to initiate long positions, taking advantage of the sector's underlying
strength. As for the immediate trading outlook, the expected range is anticipated to
TREND
fluctuate between 25000 and 27000, highlighting the short-term dynamics of the
market. Additionally, a broader trading band extending from 24500 to 27500 levels
provides context for potential price movements beyond the short term. Investors and
traders are advised to monitor these levels closely to capitalize on favourable trading
opportunities and navigate market volatility effectively in the auto sector. MODERATE
BEARISH
BULLISH
0.70

NIFTY FMCG
Weightage MoM Return
STOCK
(%) (%)

ITC 34.85 1.32

HINDUNILVR 19.52 2.67

NESTLEIND 7.02 1.81

TATACONSUM 6.17 0.94

VBL 5.68 -4.77

BRITANNIA 5.44 2.54

GODREJCP 4.41 3.18

COLPAL 3.82 6.69

UNITDSPR 3.38 4.32

DABUR 2.93 0.23

*MoM returns till 30th August, 2024 *Source: NSE

In August, NIFTY FMCG maintained its previous month breakout out, experiencing
decent gains of 1.57% and settling above the 63000 mark on a Month-over-Month
(MoM) basis. Despite the recent rally, there may still be opportunities for investors as
the index retraces. Specifically, any pullback towards the 62,000 level could present
an advantageous entry point for those looking to establish long positions in
NIFTY_FMCG stocks, leveraging the sector's long-term growth prospects. Looking
ahead, the 64,000 level is anticipated to serve as a resistance zone, potentially
capping upward movements, while support is expected around the 62,000 mark,
providing a potential floor for the index's decline. In terms of the immediate trading
outlook, the projected range is expected to oscillate between 61,500 and 64,500,
TREND
reflecting the short-term dynamics of the market. Moreover, a broader trading band
extending from 61,000 to 65,000 levels provides context for potential price
movements beyond the short term. Investors should monitor these levels closely to
identify favourable trading opportunities and navigate market fluctuations effectively
within the FMCG sector.

04
PCR v/s NIFTY
The PCR OI oscillated in a broader range of Looking at the current trend the PCR is
0.7-1.70 levels in the previous month. At expected to remain at lower levels while
one point, PCR reached the upper threshold historically it could be observed that any
of 1.40 and settled the month near to 25200 correction towards 0.50-0.70 levels is a good
level. The activity within the Nifty options accumulating level in the market as
segment was in line with the market sentiments turn to be positive at mentioned
movement as the put writer shifted their levels.
position to a lower strike. Going forward if
the current trend prevails then the
24000-24200 range, may act as a key
support zone and any corrections during the
month towards the 24000-24200 level could
be seen as a good accumulating level, at
the level of 25800-26000 may act as a
hurdle for the bulls in near future.

PCR INDICATOR
BULLISH MODERATE BEARISH CURRENT: 1.15
0.70-0.90 0.90-1.40 1.40-2.00

NIFTY OPTIONS OI BANKNIFTY OPTIONS OI

On the options front, the data suggests that On the options front, the data suggests that
25000 PE has the highest open interest of 51000 PE has the highest open interest of
2.50K contracts, followed by 24500; on the 44k contracts, followed by 50000 PE which
call side, the maximum open interest stands will act as the next major support. On the
at 26000 strike price with 1.15 k contracts call side, the maximum open interest is seen
followed by 25000 strike price with 0.98k at 52000 CE of around 1.08K contracts,
contracts. followed by 53000.

Nifty is expected to trade in the broad range Bank Nifty is expected to trade in the broad
of 24000 to 26000 in the September month range of 50000 to 52000 in the September
series. month series.

05
 Economic Calendar and Corporate Action
Date Event Previous Consensus Forecast

Monday September 02 2024 HSBC Manufacturing PMI Final AUG 58.1 58.2 57.9
Wednesday September 04 2024 HSBC Composite PMI Final AUG 60.7 60.5
HSBC Services PMI Final AUG 60.3 60.4 60.4
M3 Money Supply YoY AUG/23 10.30%
Friday September 06 2024 Bank Loan Growth YoY AUG/23 13.60%
Deposit Growth YoY AUG/23 10.90%
Foreign Exchange Reserves AUG/30 $681.69B
Thursday September 12 2024 Industrial Production YoY JUL 4.20%
Inflation Rate YoY AUG 3.54% 4.30%
Manufacturing Production YoY JUL 2.60%
Inflation Rate MoM AUG 1.40%
Passenger Vehicles Sales YoY AUG -1.90%
Friday September 13 2024 Foreign Exchange Reserves SEP/06
Monday September 16 2024 WPI Food Index YoY AUG 3.55%
WPI Fuel YoY AUG 1.72%
WPI Inflation YoY AUG 2.04%
WPI Manufacturing YoY AUG 1.58%
Balance of Trade AUG $-23.5B $-26.0B
Exports AUG
Imports AUG
Wednesday September 18 2024 M3 Money Supply YoY SEP/06
Friday September 20 2024 Bank Loan Growth YoY SEP/06
Deposit Growth YoY SEP/06
Foreign Exchange Reserves SEP/13
Monday September 23 2024 HSBC Composite PMI Flash SEP 60.5 57
HSBC Manufacturing PMI Flash SEP 54
HSBC Services PMI Flash SEP 54
Friday September 27 2024 Foreign Exchange Reserves SEP/20
INR-
Monday September 30 2024 Government Budget Value AUG
2769.5B
Infrastructure Output YoY AUG 6.10%
Current Account Q2 $5.7B $ -4.5B
External Debt Q2
Tuesday October 01 2024 HSBC Manufacturing PMI Final SEP
Source: Trading Economics

Corporate Action PIVOT TABLE

Scrip Ex-Date Purpose S2 S1 CMP R1 R2 Trend
KOPRAN 02-Sep-24 Annual General Meeting/Dividend - Rs 3 Per Share 265 285 298 315 345
LANCORHOL 02-Sep-24 Annual General Meeting/Dividend - Re 0.20 Per Share 36 42 43 48 56
ACLGATI 02-Sep-24 Annual General Meeting 85 94 103 108 118
KRYSTAL 02-Sep-24 Dividend - Rs 1.50 Per Share 640 670 771 795 835
VHLTD 02-Sep-24 Annual General Meeting 102 114 117 128 138
TERASOFT 02-Sep-24 Annual General Meeting 60 68 72 78 88
KTKBANK 03-Sep-24 Dividend - Rs 5.50 Per Share 195 225 228 245 285
BLSE 03-Sep-24 Annual General Meeting 205 240 243 265 295
5PAISA 03-Sep-24 Annual General Meeting 485 510 531 565 605
FCL 03-Sep-24 Annual General Meeting 310 345 370 385 410
FCL 03-Sep-24 Dividend - Re 0.40 Per Share 310 345 370 385 410
TBZ 03-Sep-24 Annual General Meeting/Dividend - Rs 1.75 Per Share 182 196 199 208 225
NUCLEUS 03-Sep-24 Buy Back 1320 1360 1402 1435 1495
JSL 03-Sep-24 Annual General Meeting 745 785 794 825 845
VINATIORGA 03-Sep-24 Dividend - Rs 7 Per Share 1880 1940 1970 2040 2120
SUZLON 03-Sep-24 Annual General Meeting 65 72 75 78 85
TCI 04-Sep-24 Buy Back 1010 1060 1085 1120 1160
GEECEE 04-Sep-24 Dividend - Rs 2 Per Share 345 385 394 425 445

Source: NSE
06
 Technical Picks
Technical Pick – BUY ADANI WILMAR LTD. Potential Upside 12.06%- 16.09%

• AWL recently confirmed a major breakout

Action
from the falling trend line above 385 mark
during the first week of Aug 2024.
Stock AWL
• Then after the stock has been in a
consolidation and recently retested its Sector EDIBLE OIL
200DEMA.
CMP 373
• The overall movement post the breakout is Average 373
still pending and the monthly RSI indicates
Stop Loss 343
further upside. The weekly ADX line might be
crossing 20 level soon and that could result in Target 1 418
strong rally. Target 2 433

• Thus, traders are advised to buy AWL in the Stock Information

range of 376 - 370 with a stop loss of 343 on Market Cap. (Rs) 48,555
closing basis for an upside target of 418 and
433 in coming 1 – 3 months. 52 weeks High/Low 410 / 286

Face Value 1
O/S Shares -
Shareholding snapshot: Beta (x) 1.01
Technical Parameters
21 DEMA 366.19
100 DEMA 351.78
200 DEMA 357.62
Derivative Parameters
OI -
Change in OI -
Rollover -

Source: www.bseindia.com
Source: Bloomberg, Trading View, Spider Software

01 07
 Technical Picks
Technical Pick – BUY CHALET HOTELS LTD. POTENTIAL UPSIDE 16.67%- 22.22%

• The stock CHALET recently confirmed a

Action
breakout above 840 mark and is not stuck
near another major breakout on the daily
Stock CHALET
scale.

• We are witnessing a range shift in daily RSI Sector HOTEL

which indicates that the stock might clear
CMP 870
another breakout soon.
Average 855
• The daily ADX is al set to hit 25 level and that
Stop Loss 760
indicates a strong up trend.
Target 1 997.5
• Thus, traders are advised to buy CHALET in Target 2 1045
the range of 860 - 850 with a stop loss of 760
on closing basis for an upside target of 997.5 Stock Information
and 1045 in coming 1 – 3 months. Market Cap. (Rs) 19,195

52 weeks High/Low 959 / 527

Face Value 10
O/S Shares -
Shareholding snapshot: Beta (x) 0.66
Technical Parameters
21 DEMA 808.18
100 DEMA 803.27
200 DEMA 754.72
Derivative Parameters
OI -
Change in OI -
Rollover -

Source: www.bseindia.com
Source: Bloomberg, Trading View, Spider Software

01 08
Performance Evaluator
Performance Evaluation Meter of Technical Picks

RECENT CLOSED RECOMMENDATIONS

SCRIP ENTRY MONTH EXIT MONTH GAIN/LOSS STATUS

ASIAN GRANITO Aug-24 Aug-24 10.47% BOOKED PROFIT
TCS Jun-24 Jul-24 7.04% BOOKED PROFIT
MPHASIS Jul-24 Jul-24 7.14% BOOKED PROFIT

HIKAL Jul-24 Jul-24 8.10% BOOKED PROFIT

09
 Derivative Strategies
TYPE BULL CALL SPREAD IN NIFTY (26SEP2024 EXPIRY)
FIRST LEG BUY 1 LOT NIFTY 25600 CE @ 200
SECOND LEG SELL 1 LOT NIFTY 26000 CE @ 74
UPPER BEP 25,728
MAX PROFIT 6,825
MAX LOSS 3,176
The main objective of this strategy is to gain from strong
upmove. The data hints that Nifty may inch towards
RATIONALE 26000 levels gradually. The maximum loss is limited to
premium paid which is 126 points, even if the Nifty index
doesn’t move as expected.

TYPE BULL CALL SPREAD IN BANKNIFTY (26SEP2024 EXPIRY)

FIRST LEG BUY 1 LOT BANKNIFTY 52000 CE @ 539
SECOND LEG SELL 1 LOT BANKNIFTY 52500 CE @ 350
BEP 52,189
MAX PROFIT 4,667
MAX LOSS 2,833
The main objective of this strategy is to gain from bigger
upmove in the Bank Nifty. The maximum profit of 4667
RATIONALE could be gained if Banknifty expires at or above 52600
and the maximum loss would be limited to 189 points if
the Banknifty index doesn’t move as expected.

TYPE BULL CALL SPREAD IN SBIN (25JUL2024 2024 EXPIRY)

FIRST LEG BUY 1 LOT SBIN 840 CE @ 11
SECOND LEG SELL 1 LOT SBIN 850 CE @ 8
BEP 843
MAX PROFIT 5,288
MAX LOSS 2,213
SBIN is currently trading above major monthly supports.
We have recommended a covered call strategy for
RATIONALE
aggressive traders. We expect a strong upward
movement in this stock during the series.

10
Analyst Certification and Disclaimer

Mehul Kothari Jigar Patel Ganesh Dongre

AVP - Equity Research Sr. Manager - Equity Research Sr. Manager - Equity Research

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Ratings Methodology
Analysts’ ratings and the corresponding expected returns take into account our definitions of Large
Caps, Mid-Caps & Small Caps as described in the Ratings Table below:

Rating Guide (12 Months) Buy Hold Sell

Large Caps (top 100 Companies) >15% 0% - 15% Below 0%

Mid Caps (101st - 250th Companies) >20% 0% - 20% Below 0%

Small Caps (251st Companies Onwards) >25% 0% - 25% Below 0%

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 BAZAAR
BULLETIN
September 2024

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